POLITICO.

EU | JANUARY 9-15, 2025 | VOLUME 11, NUMBER 1

PUTIN’S
PASSPORT
TRAP
The Cubans caught in
Moscow’s endless war:
“As Russian citizens,
we have to stay on the
front — until the end.”
PAGE 22
ISSN 2406-5250 ILLUSTRATION BY VARTIKA SHARMA FOR POLITICO
 Page 2 January 9, 2025 Leading off

By Giulia Poloni France, where a — shall we say

slightly controversial — political
urbs of Paris that Napoleon III
had originally built for his own
figure passed away: Former Presi- chief of staff. What a life.
THE NEW DEVILS OF THE REPUBLIC. And we’re back! After a couple of weeks dent of the National Front (now And finally, across the Chan-
National Rally) and Holocaust- nel, British Prime Minister Keir
spent hiding under the Southern European sun, Declassified is here, ready to pick denial enthusiast Jean-Marie Le Starmer has had to defend him-
Pen died on Tuesday. self against Elon Musk’s very so-
up where we left off. And if 2024 went out with a bang, it seems that 2025 has started Declassified would like to re- phisticated political attacks about
member him for his lovely rela- grooming gangs and sex abuse
playing the same tune. tionship with his daughters — one cases. Keir the Tame was hoping
stopped talking to him altogeth- 2025 would set off as “a year of
Europe will soon have to deal have changed ... mark to hand it over through eco- er, the other kicked him out of rebuilding,” though his first mis-
with yet another unexpected Never to be outdone by other nomic sanctions, or even take it the family party — his careful- take was cutting that toboggan
election, this time in Germany — leaders’ chaotic energy, the in- by force, whichever is easiest. ly worded public statements of ride line in Madeira while on holi-
remember Germany? The strong coming President of the United Nothing to see here, just a regu- which there are too many exam- day. We all know that if there’s
and stable powerhouse of the EU, States Donald Trump keeps tell- lar democratic leader asking an- ples to cite here (we recommend one thing Brits won’t forgive, it’s
where the biggest political scan- ing the world that he has discov- other democratic nation to give a stroll down the Wikiquote lane mishandling a proper queue.
dal used to be a defense minis- ered a new passion for northern up a part of their country, or else. to relive these precious memo- With a first week of the year
ter forced to resign after being territories, and because of that, Stay classy, Donny. ries); but more than anything like that, we can expect great
found to have copied parts of his he should definitely be allowed On a more somber note, the else, for inheriting and living in things from the next 51. Buckle
university doctorate? How things to buy Greenland. Or force Den- big news of the week comes from a mansion in the western sub- up, everyone!

DE- This week in history

Jan. 9, 1861: Mississippi became the second U.S. state to secede from the Union in the run-up to the
American Civil War. This week, Congress certified Donald Trump’s election as 47th president of the
United States.

CLASSIFIED
WHO’S UP

Satellites: Elon
Musk is “ready to
CAPTION COMPETITION BACKHANDED AWARD

ALTERNATIVE
FACT-CHECKING
provide Italy the
most secure and
advanced
connectivity!”
and Italy’s PM Giorgia Meloni Mark Zuckerberg announced
is ready to infuriate European that his company Meta will end
industry by signing this deal. its third-party fact-checking
That’s what true friends are for. program and move to a so-called
community notes model. If you’re
Royal updates: Danish wondering why this sounds fa-
King Frederik X changed his miliar and where Zuck the Meta
500-year-old coat of arms Duke could possibly have gotten
to more prominently feature the idea from, the answer is X. Or
Greenland, which some inter- Twitter. Or that other thing, the
preted to mean thatthe Arctic one Elon Musk bought.
island is not for sale (sorry,
Donny). This is the most “We’re going to get back to our
categorical and modern political roots, and focus on reducing
message a royal has sent this mistakes, simplifying our policies
century. and restoring free expression on
our platforms,” Zuckerberg said
WHO’S DOWN in a video — shot right after he
walked in the sun for just a little
Bros: Are you a too long based on the rosiness of
dashing, his nose — shared on the corpo-
French-speaking, rate website.
privately
educated white “YOU’LL NEVER GUESS WHAT I’M HIDING IN HERE, FATHER.” The changes won’t apply to
man in politics? the EU for the time being: Tech
Then things must be tough Can you do better? Email us at [email protected] or get in touch on X @POLITICOEurope. policy geeks all around the
these days. As Justin Trudeau bubble celebrated by virtually
resigned as Canada’s prime raising a glass, after making sure
minister, the era of the rolled- doing so wouldn’t interfere with
up-sleeves-on-a-white-shirt- LAST MONTH’S WINNER any GDPR agreement they had
and-loose-tie look is officially BY KATRIJN LONCKE ticked in the past.
coming to an end. RIP.
“When they said you’d be plugging Some say the decision is meant
Bromances: Nigel Farage is to allow Meta and Zuck the Duke
“letting things lie,” after Elon into innovation, you didn’t think they to cozy up to the incoming U.S.
Musk claimed he should be meant this literally.” administration since Donny the
replaced as Reform UK party Menace seems to be a fan of
leader for not having “what it free speech (his own) and tech
takes” (whatever that is). Thanks for all the entries. billionaires (Elon Musk). Will he
Hopefully the adult in the room, be successful? If all else fails, we
Donald Trump, can convince the The only prize is the gift of laughter, which I think we will always have that promise of a
two friends to bury the hatchet. can all agree is far more valuable than cash or booze. cage fight.

THIS WEEK ON EU CONFIDENTIAL THIS WEEK ON POWER PLAY

MUSK’S MEDDLING AND THE EU’S DILEMMA: From boosting Germany’s WILL TRUMP HELP TO REVIVE THE BRITISH ECONOMY?: Host Anne
far right to targeting leaders in London and Berlin, Elon Musk’s crude interference McElvoy talks to Rupert Soames, chair of the Confederation of British Industry,
in European politics is raising alarms. With the X owner set to join Trump’s about whether the U.K.’s economic prospects will brighten with the return of
administration, Sarah Wheaton and her guests explore the risks to democracy, Donald Trump to the White House. Can big business and the City of London
whether the EU can push back and what it means for Europe’s future. prosper or are there clouds on the horizon?
POLITICO PODCASTS ARE AVAILABLE ON ALL MAJOR PLATFORMS, INCLUDING ... ... APPLE, GOOGLE, SPOTIFY AND ACAST. OR JUST LISTEN AT POLITICO.EU
Conversations with Global Power Players
Reach beyond the headlines and unpack today’s and tomorrow’s ideas, with the
power players at the heart of the action.

Anne McElvoy takes listeners into the minds of today and tomorrow’s leaders with Power Play, where we
take the ideas from the centers of power and decipher them directly to your headphones.

Listen
here
 DECLASSIFIED TOO January 9, 2025 Page 4

Palate cleanser AGENDA Lens

Insider tips from our newsroom on where to eat in and around the EU quarter. Thursday, Jan. 9: A weekly glimpse into a reporter’s notebook, er, camera roll.
EU ambassadors
meet in Coreper
I and deputy
ambassadors
meet in Coreper II.
Tuesday, Jan. 14:
Stars4Media Day
XI: ‘Democracy
& Maison du
MédiaLab’.

INFLUENCERS
Jamie Fortescue
is stepping down
from his position
as managing
director of Starch
Europe. He will be
replaced by Nelli
Hajdu.

Elena Sánchez
Nicolás is starting
as editor-in-chief
at EUobserver,
NATÁLIA DELGADO
taking over
L'Everest from Alejandro
Tauber, who will
CHAUSSÉE DE VLEURGAT 153 now dedicate
mules and farmers working the fields, and
himself fully to his
the service was friendly and efficient.
Swim in bowls of Himalayan comfort food at publisher duties
this cozy curry house. Who's picking up the check? The (hefty)
main meals were around €18, naans €5 and FTI Consulting
What’s good? Big dishes of saucy curry and a dish of dal about €13. Get all of that and Brussels is
ice-cold bottles of exotic beer will bring you’ll be full for days — you’d be perfectly welcoming back
home happy memories for U.K. expats well-fed with a main each and sharing rice Matilda Wallmon
yearning for the sadly rare British-style and naan. Not cheap, but not bad given the as a managing
curry house. We gorged on paneer butter bougie location and the lack of competition director in their
masala, a creamy spinach dish with lamb,
dal makhani, plus a generous helping of
for good curry restaurants in town. Financial Services
team in Brussels.
Week 42: Narva, Estonia
rice and perfect crunchy-but-chewy naans. Spotted: A rather sad-looking, perennially She previously
The cuisine is Nepalese-Indian, so diners empty “Indian soul food” restaurant just was head of EU The Narva River which separates Russia from NATO member state
can also opt for classics like chicken tikka across the road. public policy
masala. strategy at Swift Estonia. On the right is the Narva castle within which sits the
Insider tip: The faintly orange Nepalese
As is par for the course at L’Everest, we also beer is off the chain delicious. CORRECTIONS eponymous city’s museum inside Estonia. On the other side, just 101
got poppadoms with dips (one creamy, one
spicy, one mysterious), aloo tikki and meters away across the water, is the Ivangorod fortress in Russia.
Fun fact: Nepal is one of only three coun- POLITICO is
nonalcoholic lychee shots thrown in. tries in the world to have a nonrectangular committed to Narva, the third-largest city in Estonia, is closer to St. Petersburg than
flag. The other two are Switzerland and correcting errors.
What’s not: It took a little while to get Vatican City, both of which have square To contact it is to Tallinn. Of its roughly 56,000 inhabitants, 96 percent speak
served drinks on previous visits — though flags. (And worse food.) the newsroom
on this occasion it all went like clockwork. regarding a Russian.
How to get there: Step off the tram or bus correction
Joshua Posaner, POLITICO’s senior reporter, files a photo a week from his camera
Vibe: Warm; all deep reds and dark woods. at Vleurgat on Avenue Louise and you’re request, please
The walls are adorned with prints of Nepal- meters away. email editorial@ roll zooming in on the design and history of parliaments, town halls, ministries and
ese scenes like mountain vistas, pack-laden — SAM CLARK politico.eu. the various buildings in which heads of government carry out affairs of state.

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 Page 5 January 9, 2025 News

ALBANIA’S TIKTOK BAN RAISES RULE OF LAW QUESTIONS

rights protections to join the Euro- sters. But the incoming ban has raised perpetrator or victim had TikTok ac-
pean Union. eyebrows among opposition politi- counts, and multiple reports have in
Planned nationwide Prime Minister Edi Rama an- cians and human rights watchers. fact confirmed [that] videos leading
embargo on TikTok is an nounced in late December that he “It’s a pure electoral act and [an] up to these incidents were being post-
“abuse of power” and will would “block TikTok for one year.” abuse of power to suppress freedom ed on another platform, not TikTok.”
His decision was fueled by outrage of speech in Albania,” said Ina Zhupa, The planned TikTok ban is likely
suppress free speech, over the fatal stabbing of a 14-year- an Albanian opposition MP. to draw scrutiny in Brussels, where
opposition warns. old in November following a series Ruslan Stefanov, program director European Union officials are assess-
of arguments the teen had on social at the the Sofia-based Center for the ing Albania’s respect for EU standards
media. After the stabbing, videos sur- Study of Democracy, said scapegoat- on rule of law and fundamental free-
faced on TikTok showing young peo- ing TikTok for the tragedy “is a typical doms.
BY ELIZA GKRITSI
AND JAKOB WEIZMAN ple expressing support for the killing. populist move.” The lack of due pro- A European Commission spokes-
The decision is based on a “very cess or solid evidence underpinning person said in a statement that the EU
It’s not just Washington or Bucharest. disturbing pattern” on TikTok, Rama the planned ban is emblematic of the executive had “taken note” of Alba-
Albania is coming down on TikTok told POLITICO in written comments country’s systemic corruption and in- nia’s plan to block TikTok and called
with a fresh ban — a move that could — and taps into growing concerns stitutional weaknesses, Stefanov said. it “a sovereign decision.”
draw scrutiny from Brussels as the about how social media impacts the A spokesperson for TikTok said
country works to clear the bar on civil mental health and safety of young- it had found “no evidence that the SEE ALBANIA ON PAGE 12

IN AUSTRIA’S KICKL,
EUROPE’S NEXT NATIONAL LEAD- scale invasion of Ukraine.
ER looks likely to come from the far It also brings back disturbing mem-
right. With Herbert Kickl in pole posi- ories for Brussels, which in 2000 saw
tion to become chancellor of Austria, the FPÖ under one of Kickl’s prede-
the European Union’s establishment cessors, Jörg Haider, become part of
is bracing for fresh torment and an- Austria’s governing coalition. At the

THE EU HAS ITS

other punch in the guts in its stand time, other governments within the
against Russia’s Vladimir Putin. EU broke off bilateral contacts with
Kickl, who would become Austria’s Vienna.
first far-right leader since World War Should he become chancellor,
II, has made no secret of admiring Kickl goes one better than Haider. On
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Or- Tuesday he fired the starting gun on

NEXT ORBÁN
bán and is likely to follow a similar coalition talks with the center-right
playbook: cozying up to the Kremlin, Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP) follow-
clashing with the EU mainstream, and ing the breakdown of negotiations
pursuing hardline policies in areas among mainstream parties.
like migration.
‘THIRD WORLD WAR’
If his Freedom Party (FPÖ) takes
charge, it would mean a swathe of the The similarities between Kickl and
EU, from Hungary through Austria
Vienna could be about to get its first far-right leader since Orbán, whom he has called a “role
to Slovakia under outspoken Prime World War II. Europe’s mainstream sees trouble brewing. model,” are striking. Just like Or-
Minister Robert Fico and potentially bán, the FPÖ is banking on Russian
to the Czech Republic, where former gas, is highly critical of sanctions
Prime Minister Andrej Babiš is leading against Russia, and wants to cut aid
in polls ahead of an election in Oc- BY OLIVER NOYAN to Ukraine.
tober would be sympathetic toward
Russia three years into Putin’s full- PHOTO BY JOE KLAMAR/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES SEE AUSTRIA ON PAGE 12
 News

13 TIMES
Here are 13 times (unlucky for ticians, was branded “super-super Election front-runner Friedrich
some) the tech billionaire picked racist” by Musk in response to a Merz also laid into Musk, calling
a fight with politicians outside the speech Yousaf made about struc- the X owner’s comments “intrusive
United States. tural racism in Scotland. “Scot- and presumptuous.”
land gave him everything and yet Musk is now planning a discus-
UK
he loathes white people,” Musk sion on his X platform with Alice

MUSK What began as a top relationship

between fellow tech bros Elon
Musk and Rishi Sunak soon went
south when Keir Starmer succeed-
ed Sunak as U.K. prime minister.
charged.
Musk even found time to fall
out with a supposed ally. This past
weekend he called for Reform UK
leader Nigel Farage — a top Trump
Weidel, the AfD’s pick for chan-
cellor. Scholz’s latest approach to
Musk? “Don’t feed the troll.”
UKRAINE

MEDDLED Just weeks into Labour’s adminis-

tration, Musk claimed “civil war is
inevitable” in the country — and
things kept sliding from there.
Musk claimed Britain was a
acolyte — to be replaced atop the
party because he’s not sufficient-
ly keen on jailed far-right agitator
Tommy Robinson. Farage insists
they can still be pals.
Musk’s definitely-fully-thought-
through plan for solving the war
in Ukraine has received a ... mixed
reception. In October 2022 he used
the classic military strategy of a

IN POLITICS
“tyrannical police state;” brand- poll on X to canvass random users
GERMANY
ed Starmer “twotierkeir” over on the viability of holding elections
the policing of far-right protests; Nothing soothes a general election in regions of the country occupied
warned the U.K. was going “full Sta- campaign like Musk mouthing off. by Russia.
lin” by tweaking inheritance tax With Germans due to vote next Ukrainian President Volodymyr
rules for farmers; called for the month, the tech billionaire caused Zelenskyy was not impressed, re-
prime minister to be imprisoned a major stir by throwing his weight sponding sarcastically with a poll
over the state’s response to child behind the far-right Alternative for on whether people prefer a Musk
The X BY NOAH KEATE sexual exploitation; and branded Germany (AfD) party. Musk claimed who supports Russia or Ukraine. A
IN LONDON Starmer’s safeguarding minister a claiming only the AfD “can save call between Trump and Zelenskyy
owner
Elon Musk just can’t help himself. “rape genocide apologist.” Germany.” That drew short shrift after the U.S. election — with Musk
will never, When he’s not beefing with top Otherwise it’s been plain sailing. from embattled incumbent Chan- listening in — won’t have been at
ever stop Republicans, the X owner and Don- Starmer could perhaps have had cellor Olaf Scholz, who claimed all awkward then.
posting — ald Trump ally likes to spend his a word of warning from Scotland’s Musk’s prized free speech means
CANADA
time sticking his oar into the affairs Humza Yousaf. “you can say things that are not
governments of overseas governments — to much The ex-first minister, one of Brit- right and do not contain good po- Newsflash: One Musk prediction
be damned. annoyance. ain’s most prominent Muslim poli- litical advice.” turned out to be correct. The Tesla
tech boss predicted last November
that Canadian Prime Minister Jus-
tin Trudeau “will be gone in the
upcoming election.” Trudeau, as
it turns out, won’t even make it
to election day, resigning as prime
minister on Monday after more
than nine years in power.
Musk won’t miss him, labeling
the outgoing Liberal Party lead-
er “an insufferable tool” after he
called Trump’s reelection a setback
for women’s rights.
AUSTRALIA
Even politicos Down Under can’t
escape Musk’s hot takes, although
at least these were on areas you
might expect a tech entrepreneur
to have a view.
Musk hit out at plans to ban chil-
dren from social media platforms,
calling it a “backdoor way to con-
trol access to the internet,” and
disparaging the Aussie government
as “fascists” for pushing legislation
aiming to regulate misinformation
on social media.
The government rejected his
criticism, with one minister saying
their job is “not to come up with a
social media policy to please Elon
Musk.” Don’t tell him that!
BRAZIL
Brazil went further than Australia
and temporarily blocked Musk’s X
altogether last year after he refused
to ban accounts that had spread
misinformation about the 2022 Bra-
zilian presidential election. Oppo-
nents of the ban said the accounts
were targeted for political reasons.
In retaliation, Musk fired X’s Bra-
zilian staff and shut the firm’s local
office — though the ban was lifted
after X paid €4.6 million in fines
(chicken feed for the world’s rich-
est man) and blocked the accounts
in question.
An officially endorsed X account
still exists to document “unlawful
directives issued by Alexandre de
Moraes,” the judge who ordered
the social media shutdown. Musk
has posted memes of de Moraes as
Voldemort and compared him to
Darth Vader.
IRELAND/NORTHERN IRELAND
Musk’s posts are at least creative.
Happily wading into one of the
most sensitive conflicts of modern
times, Musk mocked the Irish Re-
publican Army, calling it “as scary
as a plush toy” for all that it used
to be “so hardcore.”
He also praised an anti-immigra-
tion rally in Dublin, claiming: “The
 January 9, 2025 Page 7

people of Ireland are standing up

for themselves!” ‘GREENLAND
ROMANIA
The canceled Romanian presiden-
BELONGS TO THE
tial election — shelved as authorities
cited “aggressive” hybrid attacks GREENLANDERS,’
from Russia — drew Musk’s ire.
“How can a judge cancel an elec-
tion and not be considered a dicta-
SAYS DANISH PM
tor?” he fumed. Musk’s new boss, to
be sure, would never quibble with
something as sacred as an election. BY SEB STARCEVIC
AND JAKOB WEIZMAN
DENMARK/GREENLAND
Trump has for years expressed an Greenland has made it clear that it is
interest in acquiring the Danish not for sale, Danish Prime Minister
overseas territory of Greenland, Mette Frederiksen said Tuesday, in
which he calls an “[absolute] ne- response to U.S. President-elect Don-
cessity” for American security. ald Trump’s fixation with buying the
Danish Prime Minister Mette massive Arctic island.
Frederiksen is, unsurprisingly, not Frederiksen said Greenlandic
a huge fan of this idea. On Tuesday, Prime Minister Múte Egede “has
with Trump’s son Donald Jr. visiting been very, very clear … that there
the island, she said that “Greenland is a lot of support among the people
belongs to the Greenlanders.” of Greenland that Greenland is not
Musk had his say on X too, writ- for sale and will not be in the future
ing: “If the people of Greenland either.”
want to be part of America, which Five years after slapping down
I hope they do, they would be most Trump’s Arctic aspirations, Frederik-
welcome!” sen reiterated once more that “Green-
land belongs to the Greenlanders.”
NETHERLANDS
“On one hand, I am pleased re-
Musk’s preference for hanging out garding the rise in American inter-
with hard-right figures was on show est in Greenland,” Frederiksen said
yet again during his chin-wag with in an interview Tuesday with Danish
Geert Wilders, the Dutch politician broadcaster TV 2.
who has long campaigned on an “But of course it is important that
anti-Islam and anti-migration plat- it takes place in a way where it is the
form. Greenlanders’ decision, what their
The X owner highlighted the future holds.”
country’s low birth rate and Frederiksen, who in 2019 de-
claimed that “the Dutch nation will scribed Trump’s bid to purchase
die out by its own hand.” With 12 the island as “absurd,” said it was
children of his own, Musk should up to Greenlanders to decide their
have plenty of useful tips for the
demure Dutch.
VENEZUELA
TRUMP REFUSES TO RULE OUT own future, calling the growing in-
dependence movement on the island
“legitimate.”
“I can notice a strong wish
Venezuela’s firebrand left-wing
President Nicolás Maduro banned X
for 10 days last August after coming
USING MILITARY FORCE TO TAKE amongst many Greenlanders to move
toward independence,” she said. “It
is legitimate, and therefore I think
to blows with Musk. The X owner
branded Maduro a “dictator” and
a “clown” and accused him of “ma-
jor election fraud.” To be fair, that
last bit is also the assessment of the
GREENLAND AND PANAMA CANAL that it is important that Greenland’s
future is shaped in [the Greenlandic
capital] Nuuk.”
Under a 2009 agreement with
Denmark, Greenland can declare
current U.S. administration. their reach and footprint in the Arc- independence only after a success-
BY SEB STARCEVIC tic, the mineral-rich island — which ful referendum — which its leader
FINLAND “We need hosts a U.S. military base — is cov- Egede appeared to hint, during his
In his pre-X era, Musk mocked then- them for U.S. President-elect Donald Trump on eted for its strategic security and New Year’s address, might be held
Finnish prime minister Sanna Marin economic Tuesday refused to rule out invading trade value. in tandem with the island’s upcom-
for visiting a nightclub in late 2021 Greenland or Panama when asked if Danish Prime Minister Mette ing parliamentary election in April.
after being exposed to someone
security,” the U.S. could use military force to Frederiksen, who rebuffed Trump’s
with Covid-19. His meme includ- says acquire the Arctic island or the ca- first proposal to purchase Greenland
ed a picture of two young adults the U.S. nal in the Central American country. in 2019, calling it “absurd,” had al-
in a nightclub with the captions:
“So what do you do for a living? I
president-
elect.
Asked if he would rule out eco-
nomic or military coercion to gain
ready reiterated Tuesday — before
Trump’s refusal to rule out taking BRUSSELS DODGES
am the Prime Minister of Finland.”
He followed up with a post saying
Marin “seems cool,” prompting the
control of Greenland and the Panama
Canal, Trump said, “I’m not gonna
commit to that. No. It might be that
Greenland by force — that “Green-
land belongs to the Greenlanders.”
“There is a lot of support among
QUESTIONS ON
then-PM to talk up her country’s
climate cred.
you’ll have to do something.”
“I can’t assure you — you’re talking
the people of Greenland that Green-
land is not for sale and will not be in TRUMP’S MOOTED
EUROPEAN UNION
As if going after one country at a
about Panama and Greenland — no,
I can’t assure you on either of those
two,” Trump said in response to the
the future either,” she added.
Trump’s eldest son, Donald Trump
Jr., landed in Greenland on Tuesday
INVASION
time wasn’t enough of a challenge, question at a press conference. “But on what he called a private visit. But
Musk squabbled with the entire Eu- I can say this: We need them for eco- his entourage included firebrand con-
ropean Union. nomic security.” servative activist Charlie Kirk and BY CSONGOR KÖRÖMI
Back in October he got into an Trump has repeatedly expressed the elder Trump’s personnel direc-
online spat with outgoing Europe- his desire for the U.S. to purchase tor, Sergio Gor. Trump Sr. described The European Commission on
an Commission Vice President Věra Greenland, describing the Danish them as his “reps.” Wednesday danced around ques-
Jourová, calling her “the epitome of overseas country and territory and Trump has also previously de- tions about U.S. President-elect Don-
banal, bureaucratic evil.” That was world’s largest island as an “[abso- manded Panama restore ownership ald Trump’s comments about wanting
after she dubbed him a “promoter lute] necessity” for American secu- of the canal to the U.S. The U.S. signed to take over Greenland.
of evil” amid a host of regulatory rity. over control of the critical maritime The Commission attempted not
fights over X. “We need Greenland for national trade route to Panama in 1977. to fan the flames at its press briefing
Musk has also attacked the newly security purposes,” he said Tues- His earlier comments triggered a on Wednesday, saying it “will not go
appointed European Commission day. “People really don’t even know sharp rebuke from Panamanian Presi- into the specifics” of Trump’s com-
as “undemocratic” and said the Eu- if Denmark has any legal right to it, dent José Raúl Mulino, who called ments, as the institution’s spokes-
ropean Parliament should “not give but if they do they should give it up Panama’s control of the waterway people came under repeated, intense
up authority” to it. because we need it for national se- “non-negotiable.” questioning about what it would do
His decision to host German far- curity.” “As president, I want to clearly in the scenario that America attacked
right leader Weidel on a livestream Greenland, which has a popula- state that every square meter of the Greenland, which is an autonomous
is already drawing furious reactions tion of around 60,000, was a Danish Panama Canal and its adjoining zone territory of Denmark.
from European Union leaders and colony until it became self-ruling with is Panama’s and will remain so,” Mu- “It is clear that the sovereignty of
lawmakers — and the Commission its own parliament in 1979. It remains lino said. states has to be respected,” Commis-
is under pressure to throw its hefty an overseas country and territory of But Trump said Tuesday, “Look, sion spokesperson Anitta Hipper said,
digital rulebook at him. Denmark, with Copenhagen exercis- the Panama Canal is vital to our coun- adding that Brussels was looking for-
One final note to readers: You TOBY MELVILLE ing control over its foreign and de- try. It’s being operated by China. Chi- ward to working with the next U.S.
can always log off and go outside AND OLIVIER fense policy. na! And we gave the Panama Canal to administration toward “a stronger
MORIN VIA AFP/VIA
for a bit. GETTY IMAGES As global powers seek to expand Panama, we didn’t give it to China.” transatlantic agenda.”
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 News January 9, 2025 Page 10

sertion based on the public informa-

tion about the mismanagement and
desertion in the 155th, said bureau
spokesperson Tetyana Sapian.
“Every training mission abroad
has a few runaways,” a Ukrainian of-
ficial familiar with the situation in the
brigade told POLITICO on condition
of being granted anonymity to dis-
cuss sensitive military information.
“As for those who went AWOL, we
never gave the numbers by brigade
or by training program. This is hap-
pening everywhere and you will nev-
er have the final number. Because
1,000 soldiers have left, 500 of them
returned, then another 300 left, an-
other 500 returned.”
The brutal nature of the war and
the high casualties make people fear-
ful, the official said.
“This is a war, people are scared,
some don’t want to fight and be in the
army at all, people leave, come back,
leave, come back again,” the official
added. “Most of the brigade is at war
right now, and most of them showed
good results at training.”
Other countries also have deser-
tion, their armies just don’t face this
kind of pressure, because they do
not face a war of such scale, the of-
ficial said.
ALLIED WORRIES
The issue is especially sensitive be-
cause of the 155th’s foreign training.
France this week demanded answers
from Ukraine on what is happening
with the unit, reported France’s La
Voix do Nord newspaper.
“The Ukrainians remain sovereign
in the use of their military resources,
but the brigade was not formed in
France to be dismantled,” an Armed
Forces Ministry source told the pa-
per.
Ukraine’s military has been criti-
cized by some of its allies for that
approach. Instead of creating new
units, some advocate adding new
troops to existing battle-hardened
formations, which allows soldiers
to interact with more experienced
troops, and also allows exhausted
frontline soldiers to be rotated away
from the fighting.
“People who say this about new
brigades, how do they plan to ro-
tate brigades from the front? It’s one
thing to reinforce a brigade with sol-
diers, but to fully restore it means re-
placing it with someone,” the Ukrai-
nian official said.

ILL-FATED UKRAINIAN UNIT

Emmanuel Macron. Ukraine’s General Staff is inves-
However, more than 50 soldiers tigating the situation with the 155th
deserted the brigade while it was and is working on improving disci-
still on its three-month training in pline and the psychological state of

HOLDING A KEY PART OF

Poland and France, Ukrainian war its soldiers.
correspondent Yuriy Butusov report- General Mykhailo Drapatyi, the
ed last week. commander of the Ukrainian Land
On top of that some 1,700 soldiers Forces, admitted on Tuesday that “a

THE FRONT AGAINST RUSSIA

assigned to the 155th went AWOL, or number of facts are true,” and added
absent without leave, or refused to that the army is working on the prob-
serve with the newly created unit, lem. ” I am sure that what was voiced
Butusov reported. will be refuted over time.”
The unit was supposed to demon- On Wednesday, he issued a state-
a PR disaster as the 155th was sup- strate Ukraine’s ability to field new ment saying: “I believe that the 155th
posed to highlight the ability of the brigades trained and equipped to Anne de Kyiv Brigade is promising
The French-trained 155th country and its allies to field new, a high Western standard, breaking and will still prove itself. Yes, it will
Mechanized Brigade was highly trained and well-equipped with the old Soviet traditions that still take time and efforts of many to cor-
hit with desertions and units to turn the tide against Russia. haunt the Ukrainian military. rect the mistakes made during its for-
“This is a newly formed brigade The 155th was equipped with mation.”
combat problems. that underwent training in France French-made Caesar 155mm mobile Drapatyi claimed he appreciated
and is gaining capabilities during howitzers, financed by France, as the public concern and media re-
combat operations, having its de- well as German-made Leopard tanks. ports about the 155th, but underlined
BY VERONIKA MELKOZEROVA fense strip in the Pokrovsk direc- But the brigade was fed piecemeal that the troops are now getting their
IN KYIV
tion,” Ukraine’s General Staff told into the hottest spot of the war front first combat experience.
A newly formed Ukrainian unit — the Ukraine’s Interfax news agency on without enough attack drones and Ukrainian President Volodymyr
155th Mechanized Brigade — which Tuesday. other equipment or attached to other Zelenskyy, who strongly pushed for
is being investigated after hundreds Pokrovsk is a strategic logistics The 4,500- brigades, and many of its command- the foreign training of the newly cre-
of soldiers went AWOL and its first hub in Ukraine’s Donetsk region man 155th was ers were removed just before it went ated Ukrainian brigades, discussed
brush with combat turned into a that is key to holding the line against painstakingly into combat. As a result it suffered problems in the army command dur-
disaster, has been reinforced and Russia; Moscow’s troops are about 3 created by heavy losses, Butusov reported. ing a staff meeting on Monday.
is now holding a crucial part of the kilometers from the fortress town. Ukraine with Both the 155th brigade and Com- “The army needs more internal
front line against Russian attacks, the help, money mand West of the Ukrainian army systemic changes to ensure effective
TROUBLED UNIT
Ukrainian military said. and training refused to confirm or deny Butusov’s people management at all levels in
That’s giving the brigade, named The 4,500-man 155th was painstak- from Poland claims to POLITICO. the Defense Forces,” Zelenskyy said
“Anne de Kyiv” after a medieval Kyi- ingly created by Ukraine with help, and France. Ukraine’s State Investigations Bu- in a statement after the meeting.
van princess who became the queen money and training from Poland and reau opened a criminal investigation Butusov said he made the situa-
of France, a chance to redeem itself. France. The soldiers were even vis- FRANCOIS into abuse of power or official au- tion public because the 155th brigade
NASCIMBENI/AFP
It’s also helping Ukraine recover from ited in October by French President VIA GETTY IMAGES thority by a military official and de- needed help.
 Page 11 January 9, 2025 News

HOW SAUDI ARABIA BECAME THE built in between negotiations rath-

er than during the five-day crunch.
Negotiators go to U.N. talks with a
mandate to defend, issued by their
On the part
of both
WORLD’S PLASTIC CHEERLEADER capitals.
Changes to that mandate — even
if coalitions are successfully forged
during the talks — must be signed off
at a high level, resulting in hurried
like-minded
countries
and the
The $700-billion-year-and-growing The Saudi and Russian negotia- calls back home.
plastics industry is set to become a tors declined multiple requests for “Now, we are at a place where high-
The rich oil state has key driver of oil demand as the world comment when approached by PO- these issues of production, chemi- ambition
built a team of silver- slowly switches from petrol-guzzling LITICO in Busan. cals and financing are so clear and
tongued U.N. negotiators to electric modes of transport.
DIVIDE AND CONQUER
crisp that they can be taken to a po- nations,
with a simple mandate:
But a broader coalition of coun-
tries including the EU sees plastic Three of the negotiators POLITICO
litical level,” said the third negotia-
tor, hopefully.
the coming
keep plastic production pollution — which is choking the spoke to accused Saudi Arabia of The talks also raise questions months
growing. world’s oceans and waterways and trying to split up the high-ambition about the effectiveness of consen-
will likely
finding its way as microplastics into countries by stirring up the already sus-based environmental multilat-
our soil, food and bodies — as the
bigger threat. They have thrown
sensitive topic of how to finance the
treaty.
eralism — which essentially grants
countries veto power. If countries re-
be spent
BY LEONIE CATER themselves into the talks in a bid to “They are using that discussion main skittish about moving to voting conducting
Saudi Arabia: 1. The European Union
protect the environment, livelihoods
and human health.
to actually frame the debate — not
around ambitious obligations to
by majority instead, there’s little to
stop Saudi Arabia from successfully
outreach
and its allies: 0.
THE PRO-PLASTIC ARMY
end plastic pollution — but around employing the very same tactics it and
As the dust settles on last finance and some means of imple- used in December at the next, as-
month’s failed United Nations ne- Negotiators who have dealt with the mentation, hoping that this would yet-unscheduled round, some argue. bringing
gotiations to end plastic pollution,
high-ambition countries in Europe
Saudi negotiating team say it is clear
no expense was spared in putting to-
distract the whole discussion,” said
the first negotiator.
“I think countries need to get
more empowered on the idea of vot-
potential
and elsewhere are racking their gether the experienced team of pro- Despite its wealth, Saudi Ara- ing, because the like-minded coun- allies
brains for ways to stop Saudi Ara-
bia from derailing the next round
plastic avengers, allowing poorer oil-
producing countries nervous about
bia took up the cause of develop-
ing countries who have been looking
tries are … somehow weaponizing
even the idea of consensus,” said He-
onside.
of talks, due later this year. the plastic treaty outcomes to lean to developed countries specifically lionor de Anzizu of the Center for
But as global consensus on envi- on Riyadh for direction. to pull their finger out and “take the International Environmental Law.
ronmental protection fractures — a Saudi Arabia has the role of “cor- lead” on providing them with the fi- Some high-ambition delegations
trend likely to worsen under a Don- ralling the Arab group,” said the nancial resources needed to imple- are indeed preparing for a treaty
ald Trump United States presidency second negotiator, and “every pos- ment the treaty. without the cooperation of the most
— it won’t be an easy task. sible technique to delay has been Financing did indeed become reluctant nations — should the Sau-
Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest used.” Whenever Saudi Arabia made a major point of contention in di-led faction continue to put up a
crude oil exporter, was the ringlead- a point, they said, all the Gulf Co- Busan — although ultimately re- fight. That would require bringing
er of a group of oil-rich nations in- operation Council countries would ducing plastic production proved major players like Brazil, Indonesia,
cluding Russia and Iran that success- take the floor again and repeat ver- to unify high-ambition countries India and China on board, who have
fully blocked efforts to limit plastic batim what Saudi Arabia said. “So, more than the financing question yet to sign on to a missive targeting
production during last month’s talks you already waste one hour saying divided them. plastic production signed by over 85
in Busan, South Korea. And there’s the same thing.” Those countries also “heard loud countries, but have been less vehe-
no reason to think they won’t try to Saudi Arabia had powerful allies and clear the fact that [Saudi Arabia mently against the idea than the likes
pull the same thing this year. in Iran and Russia who also played et al] were not willing to entertain of Saudi Arabia.
“Saudi Arabia is now investing a major role in pushing back on a any financial responsibility of their On the part of both like-minded
heavily in its environmental diplo- more comprehensive plastic trea- own,” despite their role in plastic countries and the high-ambition na-
macy,” said one negotiator from ty. “Russia clearly has taken on the production, said the second nego- tions, the coming months will likely
within the self-named high-ambition role of making interminable inter- tiator quoted above. be spent conducting outreach and
coalition, who was granted anonym- ventions and submitting non-papers Financing will remain a key stick- bringing potential allies onside.
ity to discuss the closed-door talks. that are nonsensical and things like ing point this year, however, with But as Trump gears up to take of-
“I think there aren’t many delega- that,” added the second negotiator. developed and developing countries fice, it’s a “definite possibility” that
tions that can boast such a talented A third described Russia “rambling” still split. the oil-rich and plastic-producing
team of negotiators. [It] has the fir- for approximately 30 minutes non- countries will soon have a new, simi-
THE REAL WORK STARTS NOW
ing power.” stop in closed-door talks. Russia is larly disruptive playmate, said the
For nations like Saudi Arabia whose the second-biggest exporter of crude If the Busan talks proved anything second negotiator. “At least a lot of ZINYANGE
AUNTONY/AFP VIA
wealth depends on oil, it’s existential. oil, after Saudi Arabia. it’s that strong coalitions must be us fear that.” GETTY IMAGES
 News Date Page
January 9, 2025 Page12
X

people’s chancellor, or Volkskanzler,

during the 2024 election campaign —
Austria the term came to prominence when
the Nazis seized power in Germany
CONTINUED FROM PAGE 5 in 1933 — is also eyeing a complete
revamp of Austria’s asylum system.
What’s worrying for the EU, es- He has vowed to preserve the “ho-
pecially in areas where agreement mogeneity” of the Austrian people
among all 27 governments is need- by suspending the right of asylum
ed, is that the duo would likely work through an “emergency law,” and by
together to block major initiatives. pushing for the “consistent remigra-
Orbán has been an irritant to Brus- tion” of asylum seekers. This would
sels for years, but while he has ulti- be a clear violation of EU law.
mately often bowed to political pres- The party’s program advocates
sure such as on EU enlargement just the placement of European migra-
over a year ago, Hungary and Aus- tion centers in third countries for
tria combined could be a force to be “millions of people,” and the halt-
reckoned with. ing of payments to the EU if the bloc
It’s not hard to imagine that the doesn’t keep its promise to “protect”
first victim could be Ukraine. its external borders.
“The European Union is current- The FPÖ is also aiming to unravel
ly pursuing a course of escalation the European Green Deal, a set of EU
at every turn, which could end in a policies aimed at making the bloc
third world war,” Kickl’s party pro- carbon neutral, which it deems one
gram reads. of the major causes of Europe’s lack
Sanctions on Russia make the EU of competitiveness. “The corset of
“partly to blame” for the “suffering EU regulations must be broken,” the
and death in Ukraine and Russia” party program reads.
and only fuel further conflict, accord-
PRECEDENT FOR GERMANY
ing to Harald Vilimsky, the FPÖ’s lead
candidate for the EU election and a In Germany, the far-right Alternative
ROMAN PILIPEY/
member of the European Parliament. for Germany (AfD), polling second AFP VIA GETTY ly opened its accession process in
IMAGES
Kickl’s party echoes U.S. Presi- in the runup to February’s election, 2022, with a first round of negotia-
dent-elect Donald Trump in saying is celebrating. Albania tions taking place last October. Rama
the EU should embrace a “peace pol- While the AfD and FPÖ don’t sit CONTINUED FROM PAGE 5
is aiming for full EU membership
icy” to force Ukraine to the negotia- in the same pan-European group in by 2030.
tion table. The party has pledged to the European Parliament, they are “In the EU, any ban of digital Rama insisted that the TikTok ban
block any aid to Ukraine through the closely aligned, fueling fears in Ber- services can be considered as a had not been provoked by a “one-
European Peace Facility — a pot of lin that Austria could set a precedent last resort and in relation to an in- off incident;” was aligned with what
cash for security. for Europe’s largest economy and fringement of the transparency and the vast majority of parents wanted;
In 2016 the party even signed a closest neighbor. accountability obligations of the law, and was part of a wider plan to make
“friendship agreement” with Putin’s Kickl’s appointment to form a gov- not in response to individual issues schools safer that was developed to-
United Russia party in which the two ernment has been criticized across and pieces of online content.” Said gether with schools, teachers and
sides agreed to exchange informa- the political spectrum in Germany. the statement. parents.
tion and to hold regular joint con- “A look at Austria shows what hap- The EU is conducting its own in- Rama’s office did not provide
sultations. pens when you are no longer able vestigation under the Digital Services technical details on how and when
to form an alliance,” German Econ- Act, “including in relation to the as- the ban will be enforced. The prime
ECHOES OF THE NAZI PERIOD
omy Minister Robert Habeck of the sessment and mitigation of risk for minister said in December that his
While Kickl stressed after Russia’s Greens told Deutschlandfunk pub- the physical and mental well-being government had done “all the tech-
February 2022 invasion of Ukraine lic radio. of users.” The spokesperson added. nological research” and would need
that this friendship agreement has On the other hand, Alice Weidel, The European Commission is cur- six to eight weeks to ensure that TiK-
since expired, the party still holds co-leader of the AfD, has called on rently evaluating the rule of law and Tok is no longer accessible in Al-
a favorable view of Russia. Visits by the German center right to tear down civil rights in Albania with an eye to- bania.
Orbán and Fico to Moscow were de- the cordon sanitaire and consider en- ward its accession to the EU — one of “Freedom of speech and market-
scribed as “real peace diplomacy” tering a coalition government, a plea Rama’s biggest political goals. ing opportunities will not cease to
by the Austrian far right. the conservatives have so far stead- Albania has been an EU candi- exist without TikTok,” Rama told
Kickl, who proclaimed himself the fastly refused. date country since 2014 and formal- POLITICO.

role in government as interior minister

JEAN-MARIE LE PEN REMEMBERED AS A FASCIST, in September, said “a page in French

political history has turned” and that
Le Pen had “undoubtedly left his mark

A VISIONARY AND SEVERAL THINGS IN BETWEEN on his era.”

Left-wing officials were far more
explicit in their denunciations of the
nationalist figure.
had him expelled from the party to “Respect for the dignity of the dead
distance herself from his legacy, doz- and the grief of their loved ones does
Responses to the 96-year- ens of National Rally officials praised not erase the right to judge their ac-
old’s death have become him in their tributes, testimony to his tions,” hard-left France Unbowed lead-
something of a political enduring influence on the party. er Jean-Luc Mélenchon wrote on X.
“He will be remembered as the man Mélenchon, who was the leading leftist
Rorschach test in France. who, in the storms, held the flicker- candidate in the past two presidential
ing flame of the French nation in his races, has in the past been unafraid
hands,” the National Rally itself wrote to celebrate the deaths of figures he
BY VICTOR GOURY-LAFFONT
IN PARIS in a lengthy, effusive statement. opposed. He tweeted that “Margaret
Jordan Bardella, the current head of Thatcher will find out in hell what she
Throughout his life, Jean-Marie Le Pen the National Rally, said on X that Jean- did to the miners” when the former
was a polarizing figure, evoking viscer- Marie Le Pen “always served France, British prime minister died in 2013.
al hatred from some corners of society its identity and its sovereignty.” In his “The fight against the man is over.
and passionate support from others. recently published memoir, Bardella The fight against the hatred, racism,
His death proved no different. claimed he “knew nothing” about Le Islamophobia and anti-Semitism he
Le Pen, who was convicted of rac- Pen when he joined the party — includ- spread continues,” Mélenchon added.
ism, antisemitism and Holocaust de- ing his remarks on racial inequality “A fascist from another era is gone.
nial, died Tuesday at the age of 96, and his description of the Holocaust JOEL SAGET/AFP tempted to thread the needle, issuing But he leaves behind some very con-
VIA GETTY IMAGES
according to an announcement by the as a “detail” of history. statements that effectively said merely temporary heirs,” said François Ruf-
far-right National Rally party he found- Le Pen’s granddaughter Marion that he existed. fin, another leading politician on the
ed. Le Pen had long been a household Maréchal, a sitting member of the Prime Minister François Bayrou French left.
name in France, and was seen as some- European Conservatives and Reform- delivered one such anodyne reaction, Louis Boyard, one of the youngest
thing of a political caricature until he ists group in the European Parliament, describing the five-time presidential French lawmakers and a rising star
shocked the country by making it to posted a long tribute on X, stating that candidate as “a figure of French po- in France Unbowed, said Le Pen “de-
the runoff round of the 2002 presi- her grandfather could “rest easy” and litical life.” serves no tribute,” while Socialist Party
dential election. Even though he was pledging to “pursue his mission.” President Emmanuel Macron’s of- spokesperson Arthur Delaporte said
ultimately trounced by Jacques Chi- Éric Zemmour, who tried to chal- fice similarly walked on eggshells and Le Pen’s death “should not exonerate
rac, the fact he made it to the second lenge the Le Pen family’s hold on the called Le Pen, who handed his par- the National Rally from the weight of
round helped elevate what was a fringe French far right by running against Ma- ty’s leadership over to his daughter in his legacy: xenophobia, antisemitism,
movement to the mainstream. rine Le Pen in the 2022 presidential 2011, “a historic figure of the far right” rejection of others.”
Reactions to Le Pen’s death have election, said Jean-Marie “was among whose “role in the public life … is now On the eve of Le Pen’s death, cel-
become something of a political Ror- the first to warn France of the existen- a matter for history to judge.” ebrations erupted and fireworks were
schach test in France. tial threats it faced.” Bruno Retailleau, a tough-talking set off as a large crowd gathered in
Though Le Pen’s daughter, Marine, Centrists allied with Macron at- conservative senator who took up a Paris.
 Because nothing
else matters
Our focus is on the moments that matter.
On seeking out scientific innovations with the greatest
impact on the lives of people with severe diseases.
On value that can’t be expressed in numbers alone.
 Working Group January 9, 2025 Page 14

she said.
Countries’ health systems need to
change their approach and mindset
to allow international collaboration,
Birutė Tumienė, professor at Vilnius
University and member of Europe-
an Reference Network for hereditary
metabolic disorders, said. It’s impos-
sible to combat rare diseases with-
out international collaboration, “our
health systems are just too autono-
mous,” she added.
Vytenis Andriukaitis, a former Eu-
ropean health commissioner who is
now a European parliamentarian, is
all for introducing an EU rare disease
plan that would pull together both na-
tional and European initiatives, and
include social care such as psycho-
social support for families.
There are between 6,000 and
8,000 known rare diseases and while
one rare disease may affect only a
few patients, others may affect as
many as 245,000 in Europe. Devel-
oping European infrastructure and
approaches to tackling such diseases
would accelerate diagnosis and treat-
ment for all patients, he said.
According to Tumienė, an EU plan
should establish minimal require-
ments on equity and sharing of best
practices. It should also future-proof
existing tools, Anne-Sophie Lapointe,
head of rare diseases at the French
health ministry, said. When talking
about an EU plan, “we have to think
about the future,” Lapointe said, add-
ing that she is a “bit afraid” of the
JARDIN project ending by 2027.
BUILDING ON NATIONAL PLANS
The good news is: Europe has a
wealth of national plans to build a
European plan, if it so wishes.
However, national rare disease
plans vary wildly across the bloc. For
example, nine national plans have
now expired, Tumienė said, while
two member countries — Sweden

DOCTORS PRESENT FIRST BARRIER

and Malta — don’t have one. (Swe-
den has recently commissioned a rare
There are disease strategy.)
between “All your national paths are a

6,000 and
8,000
known rare
FOR RARE DISEASE PATIENTS mess,“ Andriukaitis said. “In many
countries and for a large number
of rare diseases, both clinical guide-
lines and care pathways are missing,
despite [having] plans,” he added.
with such conditions. But once he let from research and innovation to Therefore, the first step should be
diseases, Overcoming the doctor’s
the cat out of the bag, it was quickly treatment and care. “to reinvigorate the national strate-
and while ego is a first hurdle
pounced upon by those experienc-
ing this barrier — patients.
A MIXED BAG OF TOOLS
gies, to update them, because they
are clearly not up to date,” said Daria
one rare for many rare disease “Ego is definitely everywhere in
France, I know it happens,” Virginie
To address these challenges, Europe
and its member countries have in-
Julkowska, coordinator at the Europe-
an Joint Programme on Rare Diseases.
disease may patients in search of a Bros-Facer, CEO of rare disease pa- troduced numerous policies over the For Terol from Spain, the Europe-
affect diagnosis. tient group EURORDIS, said. “It’s part past two-and-a-half decades. an Commission should take respon-
of the barriers, or at least, a part of For example, the orphan drugs sibility for the “mess” with national
only a few the delays.” regulation came into effect in 1999 plans.
patients, BY GIEDRE PESECKYTE
For rare disease patients and their
families, attaining a diagnosis is the
to spur the development of therapies
for rare diseases, and a law to allow
“At some stage … even [if ] they
were not perfect, all member states
others may Of all the obstacles standing in the
first step in a long and difficult jour-
ney to secure the best care — and this
treatment in any European Union
country was passed. The European
were developing action plans,” he
said. But now, this work has stalled
affect as way of optimal care for rare disease phase alone might take anything from Reference Networks launched in 2017 because the European Commission is
many patients and their families, doctors
are an unlikely one.
months to decades. The complexity
of symptoms, limited access to spe-
to bring together specialists to tack-
le rare diseases and, more recently,
no longer helping, he said. The Com-
mission knows it’s important, “but it’s
as 245,000 And yet, there they stand at the cialists or diagnostic tools and frag- the EU launched an initiative — the an issue of prioritization or an issue
in Europe. start of the diagnostic odyssey —
the journey that rare disease patients
mented health care systems force
rare disease patients to go from doc-
so-called JARDIN project — to better
integrate these specialist teams into
of resources,” Terol added.
“It really does not have to be that
and their families undertake in try- tor to doctor. And in bouncing from national health care systems. financially burdensome,” to develop
ing to receive an accurate diagnosis. one specialist to the next, they also There is also new legislation, such an EU plan, argued Bros-Facer, add-
“The doctor wants to solve the have to overcome some doctors’ un- as the revision of the pharmaceuti- ing she hoped knowing this would
problem and doesn’t want to ask willingness to admit defeat and refer cal legislation and the European encourage the Commission to take
for help,” Hungarian surgeon András patients on to other specialists. Health Data Space, that should fur- up the task.
Kulja admitted to POLITICO, having One way to overcome this is to ther boost research and develop- But despite the chorus for an EU
witnessed this himself. “But this is improve the education of health ment in this field. While nationally, plan, it’s not currently on the new
not about your ego, but about the care professionals — as proposed countries each have their own rare European health commissioner’s to-
life of that patient,” he added. by the European Economic and So- disease plans. do list; Olivér Várhelyi’s mission let-
Kulja, who is now a member of the cial Committee in a recent paper on But with so many existing poli- ter omits such as task.
European Parliament with the center- tackling rare diseases in Europe. For cies, Europe now needs a common POLITICO reached out to the Com-
right European People’s Party, shared Kulja, however, educating doctors on approach, said Enrique Terol García, mission for a comment but did not
his view during a POLITICO Working rare diseases should focus not only coordinating adviser at the perma- receive an answer by the time of
Group on rare diseases to thrash out on specialist clinical knowledge but nent representation of Spain to the publication.
how Europe can better help those also on how to be “morally more European Union. “What we need is to
sensitive.” put the pieces together. ... We don’t This article is the product of a POLITI-
But inadequate medical training is need to reinvent the wheel,” he said. CO Working Group presented by Sanofi
PRESENTED BY just one of the many obstacles pre- Bros-Facer agreed. For all these and UCB, and was produced with full
venting rare disease patients and pieces to work in a cohesive, orga- editorial independence by POLITICO
their families from receiving a correct nized and coordinated manner and reporters and editors. Learn more
CHRISTOPHE diagnosis and appropriate treatment. to have common goals and indica- about editorial content presented by
ARCHAMBAULT/ There are many others throughout tors, an EU plan is needed to work as outside advertisers at https://www.po-
AFP VIA GETTY
IMAGES the whole lifecycle of rare diseases, a “glue” to bring all pieces together, litico.eu/frequently-asked-questions/
Now is the time to make
better care for rare a reality.
We’ve all come a long way in rare diseases.
At Sanofi, we know that continued
advancements in rare disease diagnosis,
treatment, access, and support can’t be
achieved alone.
Partnering with and
learning from all
stakeholders and Together,
decision makers, let’s deliver
we can transform the
practice of medicine
even better
to help create fulfilling care
futures for people for rare.
living with rare
diseases.

Swathi Revathi Joe JJ Sabarish

Pompe Disease Gaucher Disease Fabry Disease ASMD MPS I
Malaysia India UK USA India

Approval Date: December 2022

MAT-GLB-2205019 v1.0
 PRINT: Textile collection in the EU (Copy)
The map shows which countries have implemented mandatory separate collection of textiles.
However, in most countries separate collection is mainly aimed at reusable textiles.

News Mandatory Planned in 2024 Not mandatory No response

January 9, 2025 Page 16

Packaging dominates
plastics market
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response
Jan. 1 wasn’t only marked by main sustainability objectives is to (Malta)
headaches and regrets this year. reduce the harmful effects of its
For EU countries, 2025 also waste on the environment. To do
kicked off with a nerve-racking that, Brussels expects its members
reminder of all the environmental to have effective collection systems
commitments they have to meet in place for a growing list of types
under EU law. On its rocky road of waste. As of Jan. 1, EU countries
to becoming an environmental must also collect garments and
haven by 2050, the EU has set fabrics separately. That means
interim targets to track progress those unusable shoes, old jackets
on reducing pollution levels, and dirty bedsheets can’t go in
planet-warming greenhouse gas mainstream trashcans anymore.
emissions, and restoring nature. The latest round-up of data from Based on responses
the EU’s environmental watchdog, to a questionnaire
From separate collection of waste
administered by the
to financing biodiversity projects, dated May 2024, shows that only 11 European Topic Centre
here are targets that the bloc’s countries had mandatory separate on Circular economy
27 member countries should be collection systems in place, and resource use (ETC
and another 14 had introduced CE) in May 2024.
meeting this year (and, for the
most part, aren’t). One of the EU’s voluntary initiatives. Source: EEA,ETC CE Giovanna Coi/POLITICO

PRO BRIEF
D EF EN S E

Macron says Ukraine

Based on responsesSource:
to a questionnaire
resource use (ETC CE) in May 2024.
Giovanna Coi/POLITICO
Source: EEA, ETC CE
Giovanna Coi/POLITICO

TRADE

China threatens tariffs

Based on responses to a questionnaire administered by the European Topic Centre on Circular economy and

Source:
EEA, ETC CE
resource use (ETC CE) in May 2024.
Giovanna Coi/POLITICO
ETC CE
resource use (ETC CE) in May 2024.
Based on responsesSource: Giovanna
to a questionnaire Coi/POLITICO
administered by the

C EN T R A L B A N K ER

German inflation rears

European
Based
resource use (ETC CE) in May 2024.
Based on responses to EEA,
a questionnaire administered by theon
resource
Topic Centre
responses
European
use
on Circular
Source: EEA, ETC CE
EEA, ETC CEadministered by the European Topic Centre on Circular economy and
Giovanna Coi/POLITICO
to on
Topic Centre
(ETC economy
a questionnaire

T E C H N O LO GY
Circular economy andadministered
CE) inandMay 2024.

Meta adds UFC boss to

by the European Topic Centre on Circular economy an

H E A LT H C A R E

Cases of flu-like virus

needs to be ‘realistic’ on US beef its head again board as it courts Trump are soaring in China
French President Emmanuel Ma- China has launched an Inflation in Germany jumped in Facebook’s parent company, Rates of human metapneumovirus
cron said on Jan. 6 that Ukraine investigation that could lead to the month of December, spark- Meta, has made another (HMPV), a respiratory disease that
needs to adopt a “realistic” steep tariffs on imported beef, ing fears of renewed price hikes high-profile appointment to causes cold and flu-like symptoms,
stance on territorial issues as threatening one of the fastest after a slowdown over the sum- woo incoming U.S. President are surging in northern regions
political momentum appears to growing overseas markets for mer. Consumer prices increased Donald Trump. Dana White, of China, raising concerns about
gather in favor of opening peace American cattle producers. The by 2.9 percent on the year based president and CEO of the the possible spread of the virus.
talks with Russia. This is the move comes as President-elect on a metric harmonized for the mixed martial arts organization But experts are reassuring that
first time Macron has hinted that Donald Trump is threatening to eurozone, statistics office Ultimate Fighting Champion- an increase in cases is typical
Kyiv should consider territorial impose a 60 percent tariff on Destatis said in a preliminary ship (UFC), has joined Meta’s for winter seasons, when several
concessions, having in the past all Chinese goods after he takes reading on Jan.6. The result board of directors, the company respiratory infections such as flu,
repeatedly called for Ukraine’s office, spawning fears of another surpasses the 2.5 percent announced late Jan. 6. White is Covid-19 and respiratory syncytial
territorial integrity to be pre- tit-for-tat trade war between the figure forecast by analysts. A a key Trump ally who supported virus (RSV) usually see upward
served in any negotiations to end world’s two largest economies. breakdown provided by Destatis the U.S. president-elect during trends. HMPV is not a new virus: It
the war. “The Ukrainians need to China and many other countries shows that energy prices election campaigns, introduced was discovered in the Netherlands
have realistic discussions on ter- shut their market to U.S. beef continued to fall in December, him during last summer’s Re- in 2001. Symptoms of the disease,
ritorial issues, which they alone in the early 2000s after several but not by as much as in previ- publican National Convention which is of the same family as RSV,
can do,” he said during a speech cases of bovine spongiform ous months. Meanwhile, the and joined him on stage during include cough, fever, sore throat,
to French ambassadors gathered encephalopathy were detected in price of both goods and services his victory speech in November. nasal congestion and shortness of
in Paris. the U.S. cattle herd. increased. breath.

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C Y B ER S E C U R I T Y F I N A N C I A L S ERV I C E S D EF EN S E T E C H N O LO GY H E A LT H C A R E

Musk ‘ready’ to provide Eurozone inflation Trump: Pentagon could Taiwan suspects China of France: first case of
Meloni with Starlink bumps up again lean on allies for warships latest attack new mpox variant
The Italian government confirmed Inflation in the eurozone quickened President-elect Donald Trump Taiwan suspects that China France has reported its first case
on Jan. 6 it is in talks with Elon for the second month in a row in said the United States may lean was behind the cutting of an of the new mpox variant, the
Musk’s SpaceX over a possible December, as rising prices for energy on allies to help build warships international undersea telecom country’s public health agency
€1.5 billion deal for secure and services kept it uncomfortably for the Navy, signaling a possible cable early on Jan. 3. According announced on Jan. 7, bringing the
telecoms — a move certain to above the European Central Bank’s reversal from the “Buy American” to Taiwanese media reports, total number of EU cases to eight.
infuriate European industry. target. Consumer prices rose by 2.4 policies that began during the the Shunxin-39, a Cameroon- The individual, located in Brittany,
The government, led by hard- percent on an annual basis across first Trump administration as flagged cargo ship, was had been in contact with two people
right Prime Minister Giorgia the currency area, up from 2.2 delays for shipbuilding programs intercepted by the country’s who had recently returned from
Meloni, is in the late stages of percent in November, Eurostat said have sparked interest in tapping coast guard about 13 kilometers Central Africa. French authorities
negotiations with SpaceX to buy in a release. In monthly terms, prices foreign yards. “We don’t build ships off the north coast of Taiwan late said they were working to identify
secure communication services, rose 0.4 percent. Inflation in services anymore,” Trump told conservative Friday afternoon and ordered all contacts. Sweden, Germany,
Bloomberg reported on Jan 5. remains the biggest contributor, talk show host Hugh Hewitt in an to return closer to shore for an Belgium and the U.K. have all
The deal had been in the works up 4.0 percent annually, and up interview onJan 6. “We used to investigation. Rough weather reported cases, although there have
for more than a year but had a chunky 0.8 percent just from build a ship a day. We don’t build prevented them from boarding been no major outbreaks outside
stalled, according to the report. November. Energy prices rose 0.6 ships anymore. We want to get that the vessel, however, and the Africa. The European Centre for
Meloni visited U.S. President-elect percent on the month, bringing them started. And maybe we’ll use allies, Shunxin-39 was able to continue Disease Prevention and Control says
Donald Trump at his resort in Mar- back above year-earlier levels after also, in terms of building ships. We en route to a port in South the risk to the general population in
a-Lago, Florida last weekend. four months of annual deflation. might have to.” Korea. Europe is low.
 News
Page 17 January 9, 2025 Optics
Date Page X

VIEWPOINT

Hot shots
Firefighters work as a home burns during a powerful windstorm impacting California on Jan. 8. MARIO TAMA/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES
 Commentary

STRENGTHEN
UKRAINE SO
THERE CAN BE
REAL PEACE
The main guarantee of peace cannot be Trump’s
“goodwill.” Rather, we must create conditions so
that the the enemy simply wouldn’t dare
attack again.
BY YEGOR FIRSOV

N
owadays, everyone willingness to compromise. Thus,
views the possibil- whatever our expectations from
ity of ending the war
in Ukraine not as a
Our trench the Trump administration may
be, both the U.S. and especially
military process but intuition Europe should be interested in
a political one— particularly with
the election of U.S. President-elect
tells us strengthening the resources of the
Armed Forces of Ukraine. Other-
Donald Trump. there’s only wise, negotiations will turn from
a constructive conversation into
Given his campaign statements,
it’s obvious the incoming White one option a platform for Russian President
House administration will make
ending the hostilities one of its
if we are Vladimir Putin to issue ultimatums.
Ukraine had never prepared for
priorities. But while it has serious to end this war, naively believing in interna-
leverage over Kyiv, will Washington
really have any over Moscow?
war: We tional security institutions. Hence,
it is unfortunately unable to pro-
It’s a rhetorical question, of must create tect international order and peace
course — otherwise the U.S. would in Europe with its own resources.
have done so already. However, the conditions It is Western weapons and funds
war’s cessation cannot be unilat-
eral. That would be a defeat, not
so the that provide the basis of our con-
tinued defense.
peace. And in this particular case, enemy By now, probably everyone has
Moscow, Beijing and Tehran would
all regard a defeat for Ukraine as
simply understood that modern warfare
is, above all, a war of resources.
a defeat for the entire West, for cannot And based on the realities on the
NATO and, most of all, for the U.S. ground, we can draw an unambig-
Surely, it wouldn’t be beneficial succeed, uous conclusion that today’s main
for businessman Trump to start
his presidency with such a defeat,
that it military resources are people — in
particular infantry — and drones.
especially after Washington has cannot I, for one, believe Putin is count-
invested tens of billions of dollars
in Ukraine’s defense. So, it stands
physically ing on the fact that the West’s sup-
port for Ukraine will waver and
to reason that not everything said advance on the front will crumble, leaving our
on the campaign trail becomes country without protection. He’s
reality. Ukrainian counting on Ukraine running out
Moreover, from the trenches
here in Donbas, the war looks com-
soil. of ammunition for the Patriot air
defense systems; on there not be-
pletely different from how it seems ing enough shells for artillery, leav-
in Western capitals. ing the infantry exposed to break
Indeed, Ukraine, along with under pressure from the “libera-
Europe, may be about to lose a tors”; and on the F-16 fighter jets
powerful ally in the fight against an not arriving in sufficient numbers,
imperialist and aggressive Russia, allowing Russia to maintain its
but even the cessation of U.S. fund- dominance of the skies.
ing wouldn’t mean an actual end I have been fighting in Donbas
to the war. Rather, it would simply for three years, now in the Pok-
mean Ukraine paying the price of rovsk direction. And, indeed, the
even more victims and losing more situation is such that we’re los-
territory, while Russia grows stron- ing cities: Avdiivka, Vugledar and
ger and advances closer to NATO Selydove were all lost this year,
borders. while Kostyantynivka, Chasiv Yar,
And even if a diplomatic process Pokrovsk, Myrnograd, Toretsk and
were to begin, those involved will Kurakhovo are all under severe
advocate positions based on the threat. And this means Russia cur-
situation at the front. Meaning, it rently has no incentive to stop
is the military reality that will de- SERGEI SUPINSKY/ hostilities.
AFP VIA GETTY
termine Russia’s compliance and IMAGES Our trench intuition tells us
 January 9, 2025 Page 19

there’s only one option if we are to would become impossible. And

end this war: We must create con- that is when both sides would have
ditions so the enemy simply cannot an objective interest in the nego-
succeed, that it cannot physically tiations, regardless of Trump’s or
advance on Ukrainian soil. And as even Putin’s position.
the deputy platoon commander of Therefore, if we really want to
a brigade with units consistently stop this war, we can only do it by
among the Ukrainian army’s top 10 giving Ukraine a technological and
in terms of destroyed equipment, quantitative drone advantage.
I am sure this can be achieved — Some data is classified, of
with the help of drones. course, but I will give a general
Drones have already significant- figure — in the last month alone,
ly changed the course of the war. If drones have made about 20,000
everything functions smoothly, and verified hits on enemy targets.
reconnaissance drones transmit Thankfully, some countries,
data to strike crews, unmanned such as the U.S. and the U.K., have
aerial vehicles (UAV) can strike already announced aid specifi-
anything. We’ve been able to drive cally earmarked for drones. And
away heavy enemy equipment 5 to for those of us in the trenches, this
10 kilometers from the line of con- news gives us more hope for peace
tact thanks to high accuracy — so than any of the reports regarding
fearful are the Russians, we hardly Trump’s “peacefulness.”
ever see columns of tanks being de- Though given our practical ex-
ployed on the battlefield as we did perience, there’s still a lingering
a year ago. fear our Ministry of Defense won’t
Today, Ukraine’s main battlefield buy what is needed right now, or
problem is the enemy’s infantry. in specific sections of the front.
Small groups are attacking our po- There’s a worry that we will have
sitions in waves, and they’re doing to spend time and effort modern-
it either at night or in bad weather, izing what’s been purchased and
when drones are powerless. The finding components for it.
UAV crews still have to figure out However, I must emphasize
how to counter them in such con- again: Without parity of forces on
ditions, but I’m sure it’s only a mat- the front, there can be no compro-
ter of time. The experience of this mise diplomacy. A freeze or a truce
war shows we can adapt to new isn’t peace. And we shouldn’t be
tactics and strategies quickly. under any illusion that Putin will
But more than anything, how- stop without achieving his goals,
ever, we need more drones. should he have the resources and
Technical evolution means that opportunities to do so.
tens of thousands of drones could Indeed, if there’s a pause in the
be in the air simultaneously along war, Russia will use it to accumu-
the entire front line. They could late such means and continue its
operate day and night, in cold aggression. Thus, the main guar-
and heat. They could monitor any antee of peace cannot be Trump’s
enemy movement, including indi- “goodwill” but rather strengthen-
vidual infantryman. Indeed, this is ing Ukraine to such an extent the
already happening, but the small enemy simply wouldn’t dare attack
number of drones doesn’t allow again.
this technology to have its fullest
impact on the front. Yegor Firsov is a combat paramedic
If we had hundreds of times in Avdiivka, Ukraine. He is an activist
more drones, however, then ma- and a former member of the Ukrainian
neuver warfare would turn into po- parliament. This article was trans-
sitional warfare. The front would lated from Ukrainian by Valentyna
stabilize; any offensive actions Marchenko.
 Opinion

WHAT A NON-
HANDSHAKE
TELLS US ABOUT
SYRIA’S NEW RULER
Ahmed Hussein al-Shar’a’s hands-off diplomacy is setting off alarm bells — as it should.

Syria’s new divide between Republican law- that marched into Damascus last tions about how women are likely
leader Ahmed BY JAMIE DETTMER makers insisting on shaking hands month, ending the Assad dynasty’s to be treated in post-Assad Syria.
Hussein and Democrats mostly offering fist 54-year autocracy. Shar’a, who once pledged his al-
al-Shar’a’s THERE’S A LOT IN A HANDSHAKE bumps or distant waves. Other Western countries have legiance — or made the bay’ah — to
refusal to — and a lot in its absence too. So then what conclusion can been more circumspect as they al Qaeda and fought Western forces
offer his hand Remember the awkwardness we draw from Syria’s new lead- piece together the clues about who in Iraq, has only recently dropped
to German when a tense President Donald er Ahmed Hussein al-Shar’a’s re- Syria’s new de facto ruler really his nom de guerre Abu Mohammed
Foreign Trump and then-German Chancel- fusal to offer his hand to German is, and what HTS and its leaders al-Golani. He broke with al Qaeda
Minister lor Angela Merkel seemingly ig- Foreign Minister Annalena Baer- are planning for a post-Assad fu- in 2016 and has sought to distance
Annalena nored the press corp’s request to bock upon her arrival in Damascus ture: An inclusive one embracing himself from his extremist past.
Baerbock upon shake hands in 2017? It certainly with French counterpart Jean-Noël the country’s diversity, religious The Damascus med school drop
her arrival in foretold how bumpy the relation- Barrot? sects and ethnic minorities? Or out has also had somewhat of a
Damascus. ship between the two leaders Their trip to the capital, the an Islamist state that oppresses, sartorial makeover in recent years,
would be. first by top European diplomats imposes conservative governance swapping the Osama bin Laden-
ILLUSTRATION BY
DATO PARULAVA/ Or during Covid-19, when those in years, was part of an EU effort and elevates the Sunni majority? look for a neatly trimmed beard
POLITICO ideologically opposed to lock- to encourage an inclusive, peace- Or might it be somewhere in-be- and green fatigues à la Ukrainian
downs and restrictions, or simply ful transition of power in Syria. tween? President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, or
irritated about being counseled France and Germany have been So far, Shar’a has talked about corporate blazers and chinos. “A
to forgo a custom, used vigorous more forward-leaning in engaging pluralism and his wish for inclusiv- person in their twenties will have a
handshakes to communicate dis- with the Syrian opposition group, ity, but his hands-off diplomacy different personality than someone
sent? Visitors to the U.S. Congress Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) — the with Baerbock has raised eyebrows in their thirties or forties, and cer-
at the time noted a sharp political main insurgent Islamist faction — if nothing else, for raising ques- tainly someone in their fifties. This
 January 9, 2025 Page 21

country’s two extremist popu-

Germany 2025: Reform list parties: The far-right Alter-
native for Germany is currently
or more gloom? still in second place, exploiting
public fears over the econo-
my, Ukraine and particularly im-
BY JOHN KAMPFNER migration — the recent terrorist
attack on a Christmas market in
GERMANY IS A COUNTRY FAR Magdeburg played into the party’s
more comfortable with the in- hands. Meanwhile, Sahra Wagen-
cremental patter of stability. But knecht’s alliance, a combination of
could this finally be its year of seis- far left and far right, is also likely to
mic change? enter the Bundestag. And though
Looking ahead at 2025, there’s the main parties have vowed not
one upcoming event that’s under to work with either at the federal
the country’s control: its February level, both will still play a major
election, called seven months early role in the next parliament.
after Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s hap- So, with the leader of the CDU’s
less three-party coalition suddenly Bavarian partners refusing to join a
but mercifully collapsed. government containing the Greens,
And if Christian Democrat (CDU) Merz will likely be looking at a so-
leader Friedrich Merz wins the called “grand coalition” with the
somewhat of a litmus test for this race, and wins big, he will feel em- SPD. But such a government could
columnist. And a refusal to engage, Withholding boldened to undertake a series of easily descend into the same bick-
to look a woman squarely in the his hand overdue economic reforms. ering as the outgoing one, with
eyes or shake their hand tends to However, there are far more decision-making reduced to nit-
suggests
be ominous when it comes to in- events out of Germany’s con- picking just to prevent its collapse
clusivity.
something trol: U.S. President-elect Don- — and that would be disastrous for
Aside from indicating how truly about where ald Trump’s return to the White any hope of reform.
moderate they’ve become, a hand- exactly Shar’a House, the consequences of the If, however, the margin of vic-
shake — or lack thereof — speaks might be on war in Ukraine, further acts of tory is unexpectedly high, Merz
volumes about how pragmatic a the spectrum subversion by Russia and China, as would be able to dictate his terms
leader is prepared to be. of radical well as conflict in the Middle East more robustly. Terms that would
Of course, many conservative political — in short, everything beyond its likely include a change to the coun-
Muslims believe unrelated men Islam, as well borders. And their impact on the try’s highly restrictive “black zero”
and women should never touch, as the limits election can’t be discounted. borrowing rules — a constitutional
and yet exceptions have been So, perhaps it is with good rea- norm limiting the federal govern-
of his recent
made. For example, when con- son that Germans today are more ment’s annual structural budget
ducting diplomacy, a handshake —
modernization. nervous about their place in the deficit to 0.35 percent of output.
the modern standard greeting for It may also world than at any time in their This debt brake has stymied invest-
global politicians and businessmen indicate the postwar history. ment in public services for more
— is something traditional Saudi restrictions he Germany’s current paradox is than a decade, leaving infrastruc-
and Emirati rulers have been ready has to observe that while almost everyone else ture — including the Deutsche Bahn
to entertain. In 1987, Saudi Arabia’s in order to keep complains about the Scholz ad- railway network — reeling. And
King Fahd had no problems shak- his Islamist ministration’s failure to grasp the with even the fiscally conserva-
ing then-British Prime Minister fighters on economic modernization agenda, tive Bundesbank calling for it to be
Margaret Thatcher’s hand, under- board. many at home are frightened by it. loosened, change could happen
standing that the gesture conveys Germany is hamstrung by old-fash- relatively soon.
trust, or at least a readiness to ioned practices — from its public Other measures would be hard-
engage. services that seem to have forgot- er to push through though.
Meanwhile, Friday’s incident has ten the digital world to moribund For example, while free mar-
sparked a fierce debate on Syrian industries that feel entitled to state keteers see the minimum income
social media. Does it show Shar’a support. Yet, many of those most guarantee — the “Citizens’ Benefit”
isn’t as moderate as he would like affected by it are the ones resisting (Bürgergeld) — as disincentivizing
to suggest? Certainly some of the the tough measures required to re- hard work, both the SPD and the
country’s women’s rights advo- boot the economy. Greens see it as perhaps the outgo-
cates believe so — and are worried That’s the challenge Merz is ing government’s biggest domestic
that when he talks about “inclu- faced with. A political veteran who achievement. So, would Merz be
sion,” he doesn’t mean them. HTS has spent much of his career bat- brave enough to cut it?
rule in Idlib, the enclave the group tling his own party — particularly Moreover, as the economic
ran for eight years, certainly wasn’t its former leader Angela Merkel — clouds over Germany darken, the
noted for its acceptance of female the 69-year-old knows time isn’t on powerful trade unions are growing
politicians — none were appointed his side. But he is acerbic; he will restive too. With tens of thousands
to the government. relish the fight. And, unlike Scholz, of jobs threatened as part of major
Pro-democracy activists are also he might just have the personality cutbacks, Volkswagen symbolizes
alarmed by Shar’a’s appointment the job requires. these woes perfectly.
of Shadi al-Waisi as the country’s First, however, Merz needs to And finally, there’s also foreign
interim justice minister. Recently secure victory — and while the policy to consider, which, unusually
unearthed videos of al-Waisi sen- CDU has started in a strong posi- for German elections, will likely be a
tencing women to death for adul- tion, elections in Germany have a pivotal deciding factor, as the stakes
tery and prostitution in Idlib and habit of springing surprises. Last are so high. While Merz believes his
overseeing their executions have time around, for example, Scholz bruiser-like style gives him a better
prompted uproar and demands he scraped the win with a campaign chance of developing a relationship
be fired. where he said and did nothing of with Trump, some economists fore-
But another possible and more note — all he had to do was watch cast that if Berlin were to be singled
nuanced interpretation is that then-CDU candidate Armin Laschet out for punishment, Trump’s tar-
Shar’a himself faces a dilemma. get caught on camera, laughing off- iffs could remove a full percentage
“He has a tough balancing act to stage during a presidential event point off German gross domestic
pull off between reassuring the honoring flood victims, and watch product.
international community, Europe the Greens’ Annalena Baerbock get But Scholz appears to be enjoy-
is human nature,” he assured CNN and the U.S. on the one hand, and caught embellishing her CV. ing the early skirmishes on the
on the eve of Assad’s fall. placating more hardcore, Qaeda- And, no doubt, he’s now hoping campaign trail. His strategy is
But withholding his hand sug- inclined HTS fighters,” Syrian jour- history repeats itself. Hence, Merz straightforward: juxtaposing his
gests something about where nalist Lina Chawaf hazarded. is trying to curb his instincts and safety-first approach against the
exactly Shar’a might be on the Chawaf was a prominent televi- not snap at critics, not make any “risk” Merz poses.
spectrum of radical political Islam, sion personality in Damascus until unguarded remarks. But the risk Germany is now looking at a
as well as the limits of his recent she fled in 2011, after siding with of him getting into trouble while year that will demand courage from
modernization. It may also indicate the popular revolt against the now- pressing the flesh with voters is its politicians. It will require them
the restrictions he has to observe ousted Assad. According to her, not insignificant. to make some big decisions and
in order to keep his Islamist fight- “HTS loyalists don’t like the change This is critical because while Merz bring the public along with them.
ers on board. in Shar’a’s public narrative. Recent- dreams of an outright majority, the If they can do that, the country will
Baerbock, for her part, has ly, he demanded a local reporter voting system likely won’t give him quickly start to recover, both eco-
sought to make light of the inci- wear a headscarf to interview him. that — he’ll have to work with either nomically and on the world stage.
dent, telling broadcasters: “As I He could hardly do that and then the Social Democrats (SPD) or the But if they succumb to anxiety and
traveled here, it was clear to me the next moment shake Baerbock’s Greens. The arithmetic is complicat- idling, it looks like 2025 will be
that there would obviously be no hand, could he?” ed, but if the liberal Free Democrats mired in even more gloom.
ordinary handshakes.” Maybe so. But either way, as fall under the 5 percent parliamen-
But reporting on political Islam Baerbock acknowledged Friday: tary threshold — as seems likely — John Kampfner is a British author,
over the years, observing how radi- “This will be a rocky road.” there will be more seats to share broadcaster and commentator. His
cal Islamists (or jihadists) interact among the larger parties. latest book is “In Search of Berlin,”
with women when claiming to have Jamie Dettmer is opinion editor at Of course, the biggest concern published by Atlantic. He is a regular
become more moderate has been POLITICO Europe. rests with the performance of the POLITICO columnist.
 Cover story

The Cubans caught in

Moscow’s endless war:
“As Russian citizens,
we have to stay on the
front — until the end.”

BY EVA HARTOG

PUTIN’S
PASSPORT
TRAP

A year ago, Jorge thought obtaining a Russian passport would be his

ticket to freedom and wealth. Instead, it brought him a seemingly end-
less stint risking his life in Moscow’s brutal war against Ukraine. ¶ The
Cuban recruit is among thousands of foreign nationals who signed
a one-year contract with the Russian army, lured by the promise of
hefty paychecks and fast-tracked citizenship for themselves and their
kin. ¶ For Cubans, many of whom see life under Havana’s dictatorial
regime and American sanctions as amounting to an open-air prison,
the promise of a second passport has been a major draw. The docu-
ment, however, comes with a noose attached. ¶ “Now they’re telling
us that, since we’re Russian citizens, we have to continue fighting un-
til the end of the war,” said Jorge, speaking from Russia’s Kursk region
where Moscow’s troops are trying to beat back a Ukrainian offensive.

Like others interviewed for this ar- Though the exact number of for- hoodwinked into traveling to Russia a guarantee of more rights than the
ticle, he has been given a pseudonym eign recruits is a well-kept secret, after responding to posts on social certification of a demotion: from post-
for safety reasons. the general consensus among mili- media for what they thought would er boys of international solidarity to
Jorge’s story and those of three tary experts is that they form just a be low-skilled civilian jobs, often in regular, mobilized Russian citizens
other Cuban recruits in Ukraine and fraction of the Kremlin’s army fight- construction. — a status that few native-born Rus-
Kursk, as well as the families of five ing against Ukraine; plugging holes, Others admitted they had will- sians would envy.
others, offer new insight into how rather than defining the momentum, ingly and consciously responded to In September 2022, Russian Presi-
Moscow is trapping foreigners — as on the battlefield. Russia’s war call, citing financial dif- dent Vladimir Putin’s announcement
well as its own citizens — on the front Politically, however, their pres- ficulties and family responsibilities as of a “partial mobilization campaign”
line as it attempts to exhaust Ukraine ence has been exploited by Moscow driving their decision to board a flight plunged the country into a state of
and its Western backers while cush- to push a Cold War-style narrative to a place they had never visited be- shock. For the first time since the full-
ioning its own population from the that Russia is leading a broad-based fore and knew almost nothing about. scale invasion, Russia’s own popula-
impact of protracted war. coalition of countries fighting back In Cuba, they said, they had tion was confronted with the reality
against American hegemony. scraped to make a living as teach- of the war and asked to pitch in with
FOREIGN RECRUITMENT Cubans will recognize that trope ers, carpenters, waiters and in con- their lives.
from Soviet times, when they were struction. A year of military service, While the campaign triggered a
With Russian casualties piling up deployed to Angola in their tens of they hoped, would buy them a new mass exodus of young men, hundreds
since the launch of its full-scale in- thousands to help fight a proxy war nationality — and with it, a new life. of thousands nonetheless answered
vasion in February 2022, Moscow has against the U.S. the call — some out of a sense of pa-
reached across the globe for replen- Hardly any of the Cuban recruits PASSPORT CURSE triotic duty, many others out of what
ishments. Through shady intermedi- interviewed by POLITICO for an earli- they felt was a lack of choice or for
aries, fighters have been drafted from er story, however, offered up ideology Twelve months on, the Cuban re- fear of retribution.
a host of countries including Nepal, as a reason behind their enlistment. cruits and their families say, their Those mobilized expected to be
Ghana, Syria, India and Sri Lanka. Rather, some said they had been new passports turned out to be less discharged before too long, after Rus-
 January 9, 2025 Page 23

sounds like blackmail to me.” number of foreign soldiers captured

David said he last saw his Cuban ID in 2024, with Cubans top among them.
in October 2023, when it was confis- “The percentage of mercenaries is “All I can do is wait and
cated by his military superiors. Short-
ly after, his Russian passport — issued
growing, it’s growing significantly,” he
told a press conference during which
pray to God that one day
only weeks earlier — was also taken several foreign POWs, including a Cu- I’ll be allowed to leave this
from him, under the guise that it was
safer to cross into Ukraine without it.
ban, were put on display.
That was months before North Ko-
place. As a free man.”
Others haven’t even caught so rea sent thousands of troops to Russia MANUEL, A RECRUIT WHO WAS
much as a glimpse of their Russian to help bolster its presence in Kursk. AMONG THE FIRST WAVE OF
CUBANS TO TRAVEL TO RUSSIA
passports. A U.S. congressional staffer who AND HAS YET TO RECEIVE A NEW
While some recruits were awarded works on Cuba policy, granted ano- PASSPORT
citizenship within weeks of arriving in nymity to speak freely, said that it’s
Russia for military training, there are unlikely Havana wasn’t aware of the
those who are still waiting to receive recruiting efforts before the first me-
the document more than one and a dia reports. themselves will often pitch in money
half years after enlisting. “It was pretty transparent that they for a deceased person’s relatives to
“They don’t want to let us go,” said were turning a blind eye to it and were fly in. Those who wanted a burial in
Manuel, a recruit who was among actively participating in it,” said the Cuba, not Russia, reportedly have to
the first wave of Cubans to travel to staffer. “Cuba was caught doing it, pay for the cost themselves.
Russia and has yet to receive a new and nothing really happened. And In at least some cases, Cuban re-
passport. His Cuban documents were so now other countries see that the cruits simply seem to vanish into
taken from him shortly after arrival, consequences are sort of minimal so thin air. With neither Havana or
leaving him with only his military ID. they can do it as well.” Moscow showing much interest in
Ivan Chuviliayev, a member of the Publicly, Moscow’s officials and their fate, and being off the radar of
rights group Idite Lesom, which helps propagandists retort that there are rights groups which help mobilized
mobilized Russians flee the front, said foreign fighters on Ukraine’s side, too. Russians, Cuban relatives thousands
Manuel’s situation was typical of the But while Ukraine does indeed re- of kilometers away are often left to
way Moscow tries to increase its le- cruit foreign fighters, Massicot, the draw their own conclusions when
verage over foreign recruits. military analyst said, “they are treat- their loved ones go AWOL.
“They don’t have any documents,” ed very differently — those who vol- In July, media reported that Denis
said Chuviliayev. “Those are in pos- unteer for Ukraine sign contracts and Frank Pacheco Rubio, a 42-year-old
session of the defense ministry. So can leave at the end of their contract.” recruit from the city of Santa Clara,
they can’t just run away and appeal The Russian Defense Ministry did had died in an assault on Siversk,
to their country’s embassy.” not respond to a request for comment. north of Donetsk. His contract had
Dara Massicot, a defense analyst Neither did the Cuban Foreign Min- been scheduled to end four months
at the Carnegie Endowment for In- istry or Cuban Embassy in Moscow. earlier, in February.
ternational Peace, agreed. Months later, his sister said she
“Foreign fighters should know TICKING TIME BOMB had yet to receive any news on his
that if they sign a contract with the remains. “We have gone everywhere,
Russian military or accept a pass- For the Cubans tethered to Russia’s but no one will answer our ques-
port from them, they are signing up war, the extension of their time on tions,” she wrote in a message.
to fight indefinitely in Ukraine until the battlefield beyond their stipulated
the Kremlin declares an end to the contract is no formality; every extra ‘A WAY OUT OF HERE’
operation or they are killed or seri- minute on the front means a greater
ously injured,” she said. risk of physical or mental injury, and Facing an open-ended dance with
greater proximity to death. death, some recruits have attempt-
HAVANA COMPLICIT “If only I could’ve dug trenches,” ed to flee the front and some have
David said, his voice breaking. “This succeeded.
In the case of Cuba, it is unlikely that past year I did what I said I’d never After hearing in the hospital that
such a cry for help would make any do, but it was kill or be killed and I he was going to be sent back to the
difference. have four children to take care of.” front line once again, despite his in-
After media reports that hundreds The idea that there was a clear juries and the fact he’d surpassed his
of Cubans had traveled to Russia to deadline to his time in the Russian contract by four months, David man-
fight its war surfaced in Septem- military had kept him afloat in his aged to hitch a ride and flee.
ber 2023, authorities in Havana de- first year, he said. “I made a pact with He now lives in hiding in a secret
nounced the men as “mercenaries” God for one year, and He protected location while looking for a way to es-
— an offense punishable with jail time me. But not, two years or three,” he cape Russia without any documents
in Cuba — and launched proceedings continued tearfully. “I don’t wish it — and without knowing where to go.
against the supposed recruiters. upon anyone to wake up in the morn- “Cubans like me are just as afraid of
At the time, the regime’s critics ing facing the choice between suicide Cuba as they are of Russia,” he said.
questioned how a dictatorship that or murder.” For many recruits, the stories of
keeps close tabs on its population’s Like every Cuban recruit inter- escape offer a rare source of opti-
every move could have failed to no- viewed by POLITICO, David had suf- mism. “It gives us hope that there’s
tice planeloads of men of fighting age fered shrapnel injuries from Ukrai- a way out of here,” said Jorge. But, he
heading to Moscow. nian drone or missile strikes, but added, those who were caught risked
Events since then seem to further had been sent back to the front after being charged with desertion or being
justify their skepticism. While India medical treatment, sometimes before sent to front-line positions, to near-
has lobbied hard to get its own citi- the stitches had healed. While being certain death, as punishment.
zens back, securing the release of 45 treated in hospital for a drone injury One recruit, Carlos Estrada
fighters this September and working to his right hand, Pablo, who said he’s González, was held in a pit without
toward bringing home 50 others, evi- also been diagnosed with PTSD, was food for six days after one of his com-
dence suggests the recruitment of Cu- told by his commander that he’d just rades successfully escaped, a relative
bans has continued, while Havana has have to learn to shoot with his left. told POLITICO. “They [the Russians]
publicly kowtowed to Putin. Though many recruits said they suspected that he’d known about it,”
In May, Cuban President Miguel had been stationed in rear positions, the person wrote in a message on
Díaz-Canel was among the handful tasked with digging trenches and for- Facebook.
of dignitaries to attend the Kremlin’s tifications in Russia-occupied areas of After being released from his pur-
sia’s supposedly imminent victory, or, ILLUSTRATION BY highly symbolic Victory Day celebra- eastern Ukraine, others have been gatory, he had told his family he want-
VARTIKA SHARMA
at the very least, replaced with fresh FOR POLITICO tion. In filmed comments, he offered deployed to the “first line” of assault, ed to flee and return home but that he
boots on the ground. Putin “Cuba’s support” and wished including to Kursk. didn’t know how without a passport.
Instead, they have been held at the him “success with your special mili- “It’s on fire over there,” said Jorge. Several days later, he stopped re-
front for two years and counting as tary operation,” undoubtedly pleas- A man with whom he made the ini- sponding to messages. That was in
Putin has stalled ordering a second ing the Russian president by using tial journey to Russia over a year ago mid-April.
mobilization drive in hopes of avoid- his preferred euphemism for the war. had died only several weeks earlier “I feel in my heart that he’s still
ing another societal meltdown. To Cuba relies on Russia for crude oil in a missile attack, he said. POLITICO alive,” González’s son Javier wrote
replace casualties, he has relied on and wheat. But where Moscow’s al- confirmed the death through a rela- in a message from Cuba, alongside
attracting more volunteers, offering lies like Iran and North Korea have tive in Cuba. a screenshot of his father’s last known
locals high salaries, as well as expe- provided drones and artillery, impov- Spanish-language media work- location on the outskirts of the city of
dited citizenship for foreign recruits. erished Cuba has little else to offer ing out of the U.S. have reported Donetsk in Russian-occupied Ukraine.
Meanwhile, mobilized Russians than honeyed words and, according numerous Cuban casualties. But in Not wanting to run the risk of pun-
and their families have been given to Ukraine, manpower. Cuba itself, such news never makes ishment, three of the four recruits
to understand that only the end of “In Cuba, there is a state-approved the airwaves. Silencing it altogether, whose one-year contracts had expired,
the war can bring the end of deploy- system, where they condone sending however, has proven impossible, with said they preferred to stay put and
ment. As the Cubans are finding out, their own citizens to Ukraine to their relatives of those deceased leaving place their faith in a higher power.
newly minted Russians, even if they death,” Petro Yatsenko, a spokesman a trail of online eulogies and tearful “All I can do is wait,” Manuel
only signed up for a one-year stint in for Ukraine’s agency for prisoners of posts on social media. wrote, “and pray to God that one day
the army, are no exception. war, a branch of Ukraine’s defense The recruits said that news of a I’ll be allowed to leave this place. As
“They’re using citizenship to tie ministry, told journalists in March. death is usually communicated in- a free man.”
us down,” David, another Cuban re- (The agency did not respond to a re- formally, most often through Whats-
cruit whose contract officially end- quest for comment.) App by other Cuban recruits on site. Eric Bazail-Eimil contributed reporting
ed in July, said in a video call. “That Yatsenko noted an uptick in the They added that Cuban soldiers from Washington D.C.


               
       


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