Chapter 4: Probability and Counting Rules

Part 1: Sample Spaces and Probability

 Classical Probability – occurs when you actually do not have to perform the experiment to determine the
probability outcome. Here, all outcomes are equally likely to occur within the sample space.
o Ex: If someone rolls a dice, there is a 16.667% chance that any number between 1 and 6 can be rolled.
 Empirical Probability – relies on actually performing the experiment to gain your probability.
o Ex: If someone rolls a dice 100 times, how many times will this person roll a 4?
 Here, this person would record the results from every dice roll, and then determine the
percentage rate for rolling a 4.
 Can be solved by: frequency of the class/total frequencies in the distribution
 Here, let’s say the number 4 was rolled twenty times, then:
o 20/100 = 20%
 Subjective Probability – involves making an educated guess or estimate. This information can be opinion based,
and/or inexact.
o Ex: A sportscaster claims there is a 30% chance that the Eagles will make it into the Superbowl again
next year.

Other Types of Probability:

 A probability question may just require simple addition or subtraction.

o Ex: If there is a 70% chance of rain today, what is the chance that it will not rain today?
 As we know, most samples are out of 100%. So, if there is a 70% chance of rain, there is a 30%
chance that it will not rain. 1.00-.70 = .30
 If within a group of students, 4 are nursing majors, 8 are business majors, 1 is an engineering major, and 3 are
education majors, what is the probability that the teacher will call upon an education major/
o 4 + 8 + 1 + 3 = 16 total students
 3 education majors/16 total students = 18.75%
 If a random person is selected and asked his or her birthday, what is the chance that this person will have been
born in December?
o First – determine how many days are in the month of December (which is 31), and then determine how
many days are within a given calendar year (365 days), thus:
 The probability is 31/365 (as a fraction), or 8.5%.
Numbers which cannot be considered probability outcomes:

 Negative Numbers (anything below 0)

o Exs: -2/3, -0.1
 Positive Numbers (greater than 1)
o Exs: 13/12, 145%, 1.05

Impossible Events:

 The probability of an impossible event is 0.

Types of Events:

1) Independent Event – the probability of one event happening does not depend on a different event occurring
first
2) Dependent Event – the probability of one event happening depends on a different event occurring first
3) Mutually Exclusive Events (Disjoint events) – occur when two events cannot happen at the same time
4) Not Mutually Exclusive Event – occurs when two events can happen at the same time

Problem Examples:

Sometimes, determining probability involves taking information provided to you, and then solving for the missing piece
of data.

Ex: If a person’s closet consists of 11% t-shirts, 22% dress shirts, and 44% tank tops, what is the probability this person
will choose to wear something other than these choices?

 Here, it is almost like process of elimination. We’ll sum up all of the clothing categories given to us, and then
figure out the remaining difference.
o .11 t-shirts + .22 dress shirts + .44 tank tops = .77 of the closet <OR> 11% + 22% + 44% = 77%
o What is the remainder of this person closet where he or she can choose to wear something other than
what’s listed?
 Knowing that all probability samples are out of 100%, we’ll do:
 1 - .77 = .23 chance he or she will wear something different <OR> 100% - 77% = 23%

Another example from the same scenario could be:

If a person’s closet consists of 11% t-shirts, 22% dress shirts, and 44% tank tops, what is the probability this person will
choose to wear something with short, or no sleeves?

 A lot of times, determining a probability stems from interpreting words. We know that t-shirts are short
sleeved, and tank tops have no sleeves, so we’ll perform the following:
o .11 t-shirts + .44 tank tops = .55 chance of wearing short or no sleeves <OR> 11% + 44% = 55%
Traditionally, probability is taught by using examples regarding a dice, a deck of cards, or a spinning wheel.

In a scenario with a spinning wheel, a wheel may look as follows:

Think of a game show like the Price is Right, the colors may mean:

 Yellow = a new car

 Red = $10,000
 White = nothing
 Green = a vacation

What is the probability a game show contestant may win a vacation?

 Start by counting how many total spaces are on the wheel amongst all categories.
o There are 8 total spaces
 Then, determine how many green spaces there are on the wheel, because green = vacation.
o There are 2 green spaces
 So, to determine our probability, we’ll do the following:
o 2/8 = 25% chance of winning a vacation
 *There is an option to type in your answers on the quiz as a fraction, so your answer could also
be 2/8, or 1/4.

Calculators:

 Decimal to Fractions

[Link]

 Fractions to Decimal

[Link]
Other Tips:

It's important to pay attention to words and phrases while reading your quiz questions.

 EX: What's the probability of rolling a dice, and getting a number that is greater than 1 AND an even number?
o We know a dice has 6 sides with numbers 1-6. So, in order to get a number that is greater than 1, and
even, the options would be rolling a 2, 4, or 6. The probability is 50%, or 1/2.
 EX: What's the probability of rolling a dice, and NOT getting a number that is 2 or below?
o Again, a dice has numbers 1-6, and if we're concerned with rolling a number that IS NOT 2 or
below, then that means we need to roll a 3, 4, 5, or 6. The probability is 66.667%, or 2/3.

Please pay attention to phrases and words like I have here listed above.