Faculty of Science
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Final Examination
Fall 2020
1. lntroduction
The purpose of this exam is to provide you with an opportunity to demonstrate what you have learned in
this course. Because of the challenging situation imposed by COVID-19, the Faculty of Science wants to
ensure that you are fully aware of the special measures we are taking to ensure the exam is fair and that
you have enough time to complete and submit it.
Please read the complete cover page and sign your agreement to the academic integrity statement on
page 2 before beginning your exam.
2. General information
Course (ee FCSI 101) M'ath 23
Type of exam Take home exam Time allowed hou rs
,:::::::::::::.::.1isii+ I
Date and time of exam release: Dec.08
(eg OCT-03 09.00)
Deadline for exam submission Dec-11 13:59,
(eg OCT-05 09.00)
Method of submission: Assighment
lnstructor: if Other please specify
Examiner .PLf . David Wolfson
david.woifsbn @ mcsil
Associate Examiner: Dr. Alia Sajjad
(if relevant)
alia,sajjad @ mcgill.ca
3. Terms and Conditions
a) Use of thefollowing materials during the exam is permitted (check indicates allowed, all blank for closed book)
course textbook.... a
your own class notes.. a
any book on1ine......... Z
myCourses page............
other.......... If other specify
b) Online searching of subject material/related exam questions is permitted: Yes No
c) Communicating with any person regarding any aspect of the exam or course once you begin the exam is not
permitted.
d) Posting or sharing the exam content, including exam questions, or your answers both during and after
submission is not permitted.
Faculty of Science
weffitr#t}a
4. Exam time period and submissioni lnstructor please read and complete.
a)The exam ha$-been prepared in such a waV that..L{__..l1..,! ertaken under normal conditions, it can be
completed in #hours. You have been allotteO iffif'ours to access the exam and 7i hours to
,
complete and submit the exam with your answers once you begin. Due to potential issues with internet
connectivity and other unforeseen technical issues, it is strongly recommended that you plan to submit
your exam script well in advance of the deadline. See also c) below.
b) lf the access or completion deadline falls on a weekend day, the deadline remains.
c) For some exams, you may be allowed to submit an exam script more than once during the allotted time;
only your last submission will be graded (regardless of its state of completion).
d) All exams must be submitted by the posted deadline.
e) Please check your exam script for readability and completeness before uploading and submitting.
5. Questions that arise during the exam
The type of questions to which an instructor can respond during an exam may be limited
lnstructor: Pleose describe what kinds of questions you will onswer. See example given
lf you find.an exam question to be ambiguouS'or unclear, email your concerns to the instructor at the address
shown above in the General lnformation section. Your instructor will try to review questions periodically during
the exam period, but a response cannot be guaranteed. lt is important, therefore, that you express any concerns
over ambiguities on your exam script and still answer questions to the best of your ability.
rt
E
The Examiner will be responding to questions:
Prof. Wolfson: L0am to 11am on Decemberg, 10 and 11. i,
i
Dr. Sajjad: 2pm to 3pm on December 9 and 10 and 11am to :::
5. Academic integrity
0,* S4tr l
McGill University values academic integrity. Therefore, all students must understand the meaning and
consequences of cheating, plagiarism and other academic offences under the Code of Student Conduct
and Disciplinary Procedures ( see www.mcgiil.ca/students/srr/honest/ for more information, a pproved
by Senate on January 1.6,2019)
Please affirm the following statement by either uploading a signed copy of this form; digitally signing a
statement at the beginning of your submission; sending an email within myCourses; taking a photo of
your signature and uploading it with the exam script; (if appropriate) responding to a 1-question
quiz within myCourses that acknowledges acceptance of the integritycode.
I hove neither given nor received unouthorized oid on this exam and I agree to adhere to the specific
Terms and Conditions thot govern this exom.
Signature:
Student: please sign here
Instructions
1. Either use the template to answer your questions or answer on a separate sheet of
paper. If you answer on a separate sheet of paper, your answers must be ordered as
follows:
– Question 1
– Question 2
– Question 3
– Question 4
– Question 5
– Question 6
Your answers must be listed in this order, even though you may have worked on them in a di↵erent
order. Thus, for example if your first page contains the answer to Question 2 instead of Question 1
you will receive no marks for your answers.
2. Your exam must be submitted by any means to myCourses as a single pdf (handwritten or typed) ,
no later than December 11, 2020 at 13:59 (1:59 pm).
3. Submit your exam on myCourses as if you are submitting an assignment.Make sure that you
submit your exam to “Final Exam”and not any other folder.
4. You will be allowed multiple submissions until the deadline. We will grade the latest submission
before the deadline.
5. Make sure that you receive an acknowledgement from myCourses that your submission has been
received. If you encounter a problem with your submission you must let one of the course
instructors know immediately. It is too late to inform one of the instructors once the
deadline has passed.
6. It is recommended that you do not take the full 72 hours to complete your exam. Do not leave
your submission until shortly before the deadline
7. You must briefly show your reasoning.
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(15) 1. a. (3 Points) Assume that the probability of a new born child being a boy is 1 p
and the probability of being a girl is p. Assume that the sex of a newborn child
is independent of the sex of previous children (if any) with the same parents. A
married couple decides to have children until a girl is born. What is the probability
mass function of X, the number of children needed to have a girl?
b. (1 Point) Again, if the probability of a girl is p, what is the expected value of X?
c. (7 Points) Another couple, with the same probabilities of having a boy or girl,
decides to continue having children until they have at least one child of each sex.
What is the distribution of the number of children, Y , the couple must have for
this to occur?
d. (4 Points) What is the expected value of Y ?
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(25) 2. a. (10 Points) A box contains b black marbles and r red marbles. One of the marbles
is drawn at random, but when it is put back in the box, c additional marbles of the
same colour are put in with it. Now suppose that another marble is drawn. Prove
that the probability that the first marble drawn was black if the second marble
b
drawn is red, is b+r+c .
b. (5 Points) Suppose there are two tests for Covid-19 performed by two di↵erent
companies, A and B. Nose swabs taken from people are sent first to company A
and then company B. Company A does not reveal the outcome of it’s tests to
company B.
Suppose that the tests are based on similar biological mechanisms. Let
A+ = Event that A declares a swab positive and
B + = Event that B declares a swab positive
What is the probability that the swab will be declared positive by both companies?
The information that has been collected on these two tests gives you: P (A+ ) = 0.1,
P (B + ) = 0.08.
Given the above information, if possible, find the probability that a swab will test
positive at both companies, showing your reasoning. If you think it is not possible
to find this probability, say why.
c. (10 Points) Let X be the time (in years) that a certain laptop computer is kept
before being replaced. Let F (x) be the cumulative distribution function of X. If
a sample of 10 laptops is selected at random from millions of such laptops, write
down the probability that at least 3 will be kept for strictly longer than three years.
Your answer should be written in terms of F .
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(15) 3. a. (3 Points) A disease a↵ects 6.5% of the population. There is however, an inheri-
tance factor. If one’s father has the disease, the probability that the child will get
the disease is 0.13. What is the probability a child will get the disease when the
father does not have the disease?
b. (6 Points) A car dealer has 9 cars on the lot. Each car is a di↵erent make. She
selects three cars at random with replacement. What is the probability that at
least two of the cars in her sample will be the same make?
c. (6 Points) The organizer of a television show must select 5 people to participate
in the show. The participants will be selected from a list of 28 people with dif-
ferent ages who have written in to the show. If the participants are selected ran-
domly,without replacement, what is the probability that exactly two of the five
youngest people on the list will be selected ?
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(30) 4. Let the random variables Y1 and Y2 have joint probability density function:
⇢ 2
cy1 y2 0 y1 1, 0 y2 1
f (y1 , y2 ) =
0 elsewhere
Find:
a. (2 Points). The constant c
b. (4 Points) The marginal density function for Y1 and Y2
c. (5 Points) P (Y1 1/2|Y2 3/4)
d. (5 Points) The conditional density function of Y1 given Y2 = y2
e. (6 Points) P (Y1 3/4|Y2 = 1/2)
f. (4 Points) E[Y1 ], E[Y2 ], V ar[Y1 ], andV ar[Y2 ]
g. (5 Points) Corr(Y1 , Y2 )
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(20) 5. a. (3 Points) An automatic device fills capsules that are each supposed to contain 10
mg of medication. It is found that the amount that actually goes into each capsule
is a Normal random variable whose mean is 10 mg and whose standard deviation
is 0.5 mg. One such capsule is selected at random. What is the probability that it
contains at least 10.1 mg of medication?
b. (7 Points) What is the probability that the total weight of medication in 10 ran-
domly selected capsules will be at least 90 mg? An exact numerical answer is
required. Show your reasoning.
c. (10 Points) Suppose that the number of new cases per month of multiple sclerosis
(MS) in a very large population, is a random variable whose mean is 10 and whose
variance is 100. Find the approximate probability that the average monthly number
of new cases of MS over a 10 year period is at least 11.5. Show your reasoning.
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(30) 6. a (5 Points) Is the following f(x) a probability density function? If so, evaluate the
cumulative distribution function.
8
< x 0x1
f (x) = 2 x 1x2
:
0 elsewhere
b. It is known that the times in hours between traffic accidents at a certain dangerous
intersection are independent and follow a Gamma distribution whose mean is 8 and
whose variance is 4.
i. (4 Points) Write down (but do not derive) the moment generating function of
the time between traffic accidents at this intersection.
ii. (5 Points) Suppose a traffic accident occurs at noon. Prove that the moment
generating function of the time,
⇣ ⌘Y , from noon, to the 5th traffic accident after
16
2 t
noon is given by MY (t) = 2
for t < 2.
iii. (1 Point). What is the name of the distribution implied by your answer to part
(ii)?
iv. (5 Points) Using the moment generating function from part (ii) derive the mean
and variance of the time from noon to the 5th traffic accident after noon.
v. (10 Points) Suppose now, that you are told that the time between traffic ac-
cidents has a Gamma distribution with ↵ = 1 and = 4. You arrive at the
intersection which is accident free at that time. What is the probability that
the next accident after your arrival will occur within 3 hours? A numerical
answer is required.
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