1

2
How would draw a picture of population
for demography purposes?

3
4
5
 POPULATION COMPOSITION

1. It describes how the total given population is

constituted e.g 51% males,
2. 20% below age 5,
3. 85% healthy
4. and 30% employed.
7
 DEMOGRAPHY
It is the scientific study of human population, it
focuses its attention on 3 readily observable human
phenomena:

1. Changes its population size (growth or decline)

2. The composition of the population

3. The distribution of population in geographical areas

 Importance of Demographic Data
Health status of a community depends upon the dynamic
relationship between number of people, their composition &
distribution

Planning of health services can be guided by the demographic

variables
For example: How many health units do we need?
How to distribute them in the community in order to be accessible
to the target population?
What type of manpower is needed?
9
 DEMOGRAPHY

SCIENTIFIC study of human population in terms of

1. Fertility
2. Mortality
3. Marriages
4. Migration
5. Social Mobility

Source- Paul- Myer & Lucas

DEMOGRAPHY
 DEMOGRAPHIC DATA
There are three main sources of demographic data :
1. Population censuses
2. Demographic sample surveys
3. Registration systems : -

(a) Vital Registration (of vital events such as births , deaths

and marriages)
(b) Population registers
(c) International migration statistics
12
What is NADRA stand for?

13
 Registration with NADRA
National Database and Registration Authority (NADRA)
Is a legal entity in Pakistan that oversees registration of the population. All children under age 18 are
registered using the “Bay Form”

Adults age 18 and older are issued a computerized national identity card (CNIC). These documents
are compulsory for procurement of any official document such as a passport or a driver’s license, for
admission in schools, and for obtaining a government job
registration status of household members

Overall, 35% of the household population under age 18 has a Bay Form

 More than four in five adults (age18 and over) in all regions have a CNIC

People living in rural areas and in the lowest wealth quintile are less likely to register
with NADRA than other subgroups 14
 EXAMPLES of SURVEY
1. Pakistan Integrated Household SURVEY (PIHS)

2. Household Integrated economic SURVEY ( HIES)

3. Pakistan Demographic Health SURVEY (PDHS)

4. National Health Survey of Pakistan (NHSP)

16
 CENSUS
A census is the procedure of systematically
acquiring and recording information about the
members of a given population

This term is used mostly in connection with

national population and housing censuses
18
 TYPES OF CENSUS
De facto Population Census
De jure Population Census

The two characteristics which make a census

different from other statistical surveys, are that:

1) Everyone is enumerated

2) Everyone is enumerated at the same time

1) After independence, the first census of Pakistan was conducted in
1951
2) The second in 1961
3) The third census was held in 1972 instead of 1971 due to political
environment in the country and war with India
4) The fourth census was held in March 1981
5) The Fifth one which was due in 1991 was held in March, 1998 due
to specific circumstances

In 1998 census both the approaches were applied simultaneously

during enumeration, but the data was tabulated and published on de-
jure basis for comparability of data over time
20
According to the final results of Census-2017

 The population of Pakistan is 207.68 million

 Population growth rate of 2.40% from 1998 to 2017 with 106.3 million
males and 101.3 million females

Pakistan Bureau of Statistics accessed from URL;

https://www.pbs.gov.pk/content/brief-census-2017

21
22
DEMOGRAPHIC INDICATORS OF PAKISTAN 2020
DEMOGRAPHIC INDICATORS OF PAKISTAN
2020
 PAKISTAN ECONOMIC SURVEY 2018-19

By the year 2018, the number of public sector

hospitals has increased to 1,279.
The number of Basic Health Units (BHUs) has
increased to 5,527, that of Rural Health Centers
(RHCs) to 686 and that of dispensaries to 5,671.
The total number
of PMDC
registered doctors
is 220,829, of
registered dentists
is 22,595 and that
of registered
nurses is 108,474.
The population per bed in
Pakistan is currently 1613.
Comparing Pakistan to
other countries this ratio is
large; US has a population
per bed ratio of 350, Japan
85, Brazil 500.
In 2019, 178,592 medical
graduates registered with
the PM&DC, 91,146 are
male and 87,446 female.
.
There are around 85,000 female doctors, who
completed their medical education on the
expense of state or privately, but they are not
part of the medical workforce in Pakistan.

“If only 50 percent of these out-of-profession

female doctors are mobilized, 70 percent health
issues of the people belonging to low-income
communities can
be resolved,” The Nation May 2019
Pakistan has shown
improvement in the Infant
Mortality Rate (IMR) of 62 per

thousand from 66 per

thousand in 2015, but
maternal mortality rate
170/100000 is still very high.
Special focus was given by
Federal as well as Provincial
Government to various health
programs such as cancer
treatment,

1. AIDS prevention,

2. Malaria Control Program,

3. Dengue Control program.

The Honorable Supreme Court of
Pakistan, taking Family Planning as
a human right issue, took Suo Moto
Notice on 4th July 2018 and
constituted a Task Force to frame
clear, specific and actionable
recommendations to address the
issue of very high population growth.
The Task Force,

after a series of meetings, framed

a set of recommendations aiming
at enhancing contraceptive rate
(CPR) to 55 %, lowering total
fertility rate (TFR) to 2.1 and
bringing down population growth

rate to 1.5%.
Urban population has
increased to 69.87 million
(2012-13) from 67.5 million in
2011-12 while rural
population has increased to
114.4 million (2012-13) from
113.1 million in 2011-12
 POPULATION GROWTH

1. ARITHMETIC METHOD

2. GEOMETRIC METHOD

3. EXPONENTIAL METHOD
 MALTHUS THEORY
 Thomas Malthus argued that because of the natural
human urge to reproduce human population increases geometrically (1, 2, 4, 16,
32, 64, 128, 256, etc.)

 However, food supply, at most, can only increase arithmetically (1, 2, 3, 4,

5, 6, 7, 8, etc.).

Therefore, since food is an essential component to human life, population

growth in any area or on the planet, if
unchecked, would lead to starvation.
The concept of the Malthusian Trap was
proposed by Thomas Robert Malthus in
1798.

The Malthusia
Trap or Malthusian Theory argues that
gains in food production lead to an
increase in population, which results in
food shortages as the ever
growing population takes over land
meant more crop production
Malthusian Trap
DEMOGRAPHIC TRAP
However, Malthus also argued that there are
preventative checks and positive checks on
population that slow its growth and keep the
population from rising exponentially for too long,
but still, poverty is inescapable and will continue
What is SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT?

“ Meeting present needs without

compromising the ability of future
generations to meets their needs”
MISMATCH OF RESOURCES
 VITAL INDEX / BIRTH DEATH RATIO

Number of live births per 100 deaths at a place for certain time
period
1. If vital index (VI) = 100

2. If vital index (VI) > 100

3. If vital index (VI) < 100

What does it indicate ?

 DEPENDENCY RATIO(DR)
It is an index summarizing an age distribution.

Dependency Ratio (DR)

children below 15 + Elderly 65 & above X 100

working age group 15 to 64 years

YDR+ODR= TDR
TDR is also called SOCIETAL DEPENDECY RATIO
DEPENDENCY RATIO(DR)
DEPENDENCY RATES TRENDS
 SEX RATIO
Number of males
Sex Ratio = X 100
Number of Females

Except in INDIA its other way round (as in K.Park )

 POPULATION DENSITY
1. Number of persons living per Sq kilometer
2. Population density is midyear population divided by land area
in square kilometers
3. In Pakistan it was 277.47/sq Km in 2020 against
Australia ( 3.3 / sq km ) & 4/sq km (Canada) 92/
sq mile USA
4. In 2021, population density for Pakistan was 292.1 people
per sq. km
 POPULATION DENSITY
PAKISTAN (277) AUSTRALIA (3.3)
 Australia has the sixth largest land area and the
lowest population density of almost any nation on
earth
DROUGHT IN THAR & GREEN NARAAN
POPULATION MOMENTUM
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61
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 DEMOGRAPHIC WINDOW
The demographic window of opportunity is the period during which a country's
population experiences age structures that are highly favourable for
development

 Greater proportion of population becomes young and working age group

 This cuts spending on dependents and spurring economic growth

Demographic window has importance in the national development if it is

understood well and planned well for the national development

 Nepal has already entered in demographic window of opportunity and this

dividend phase ends around 2045
 POPULATION DOUBLING TIME
It refers to the time that would take for a population
to double

70
PDT = = ...... Years
Annual Growth Rate
 EXERCISE
If the annual population growth rate of Pakistan & Australia is 2% and

0.5% respectively. What is their PDT

PAKISTAN

= 70 / 2 = 35 years for 320 Million

AUSTRALIA

= 70/0.5 = 140 years for 40 million

COMMENTS / SUGGESTIONS ?
 CAUSES OF HIGH FERTILITY
1. Psychological
2. Social
3. Economic
4. Demographic
 Factors affecting Fertility

Fertility

Socio-Cultural Factors Economic Factors Political Factors

 Factors affecting Fertility
Economic Factors Socio-Cultural Factors Political Factors

Status of Level of Employment Type of Religion of Available

Women Education Opportunities Residence Parents Health Care

Cost of Government Gender Infant

Machismo
Children Pressure Preference Mortality Rate
Status of Level of Employment
Women Education Opportunities
 Type of Available
Residence Health Care
 Gender
Infant
Preference Mortality Rate
FECUNDITY
 BONGAART’S PROXIMATE DETERMINANTS OF
FERTILITY
1. Proportions of married among females
2. Contraceptive use & effectiveness
3. Prevalence of induced abortion
4. Duration of post partum infecundibility
5. Fecundibility
6. Spontaneous intra uterine mortality (Still births,
abortions)
7. Prevalence of permanent sterility
Effects of high infant mortality on Fertility

1.Biological effects
2.Replacement
effects
3.Insurance effects
 Basic Fertility Measures
1. Crude Birth Rate
2. General Fertility Rate
3. Age Specific Fertility Rate
4. Total Fertility Rate
 Crude Birth Rate (CBR)

Number of live births in a year (B)

CBR = X 1000
Population at mid year (MYP)
 General Fertility Rate (GFR)

Number of live births in a year

GFR= X 1000
Number of women ages 15-49 years
81
82
83
 Age Specific Fertility Rate(ASFR)

Live births in a year to women in specfic age group x 1000

Number of women age group

Example : age group 25 to 29

OR
Sum of ASFR X 5 = TFR
 Total Fertility Rate(TFR)

TFR = Sum of ASFRs X 5

 GROSS REPRODUCTION RATE (GRR)

GRR is the average number of daughters that would

be born to a woman during her life time, if she
passed through child bearing ages (15-49)
experiencing average age specific fertility pattern of
a given period
 NET REPRODUCTION RATE (NRR)
Average number of daughters that would be born to a woman
if she passed through her lifetime following the existing ASFR
& mortality rates of a given year, assuming that some women
will die before completing their child bearing age

Is it similar to TFR or GRR ??

 THE NET REPRODUCTION RATE (NRR)
is the average number of daughters that would be born to a
female (or a group of females) if she passed through her
lifetime conforming to the age-specific fertility and mortality
rates of a given year.

This rate is similar to the Gross Reproduction Rate (GRR) ,but

takes into account that some females will die before
completing their childbearing years(15-49).
Significance:

An NRR of one means that each generation of mothers is having

exactly enough daughters to replace themselves in the
population.

The NRR is particularly relevant where sex ratios at birth are

significantly affected by the use of reproductive technologies, or
where life expectancy is low
90
91
92
93
94
95
“TFR”… comparative study
CHILD WOMEN RATIO
Age – Sex composition
OR
POPULATION PYRAMID
101
102
A population pyramid (age structure diagram) or "age-sex pyramid" is a
graphical illustration of the distribution of a population by age groups and
sex;

103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
CANADA
ZPG
Zero population growth refers to a population that is unchanging – it
is neither growing, nor declining; the growth rate is zero. This
demographic balance could occur when the birth rate and death rate
are equal.

There are several countries in the world that are at or near ZPG,
including Iceland, Germany, Portugal, and Poland. The population
stabilization that accompanies ZPG is often seen as a critical
component to long-term sustainability for a country, region, or the
world.

113
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115
116
117
Baby boomers
are the demographic cohort following the
Silent generation and preceding generation X .

The generation is generally defined as people

born from 1946 and 1964, during the Post
WorldWar II (world war II 1939-1945)

118
Generation X, Anyone born between the years 1965 and
1980 is considered a member of Generation X

Generation Y, or Millennials, typically thought of as

those born between 1984 and 1996

Generation Z, those born after 1997, who are next to

enter the workforce.

119
120
121
122
123
124
expansive pyramid of Pakistan in 2019

125
126
 TYPES

CONSTRICTED PYRAMIDS
STATIONARY PYRAMIDS
EXPONENTIAL PYARAMIDS
128
129
 USES OF POPULATION PYRAMID
1. Age Sex Distribution of population
2. Sex –Ratio
3. Birth Rate
4. Women in Reproductive Age
5. Fertility level
6. Population Momentum
7. Demographic Transition
8. Dependency Ratio
9. Median age of population by sex
10.Mortality level by age & sex
11.Migration Trend
12.Calamities ( War, Famine )
13.Health status of Population
14.Life expectancy
 POPULATION PROJECTIONS
The prediction of future populations based on the present
age-sex structure, and with the present rates of
fertility,
mortality
migration

The simplest projections are based on extrapolations of current and past

trends, but a set of very differing projections can be calculated, based on
a series of differing assumptions—for example, that current rates of
increase will be maintained, will increase, or will decrease.
POPULATION PROJECTIONS
136
137
 LIFE TABLE
A Tabular Display Of Life Expectancy & Age Specific
Prevailing Probability Of Dying ( Death Rates Existing At That
Time)

It Reflects Organized & Complete Picture Of Mortality Of

Given Population
Governments around the world keep records of human birth
and death rates—not just for the overall population of a country
but also for specific groups within it, broken down by age and
sex

Often, this data is arranged in summary tables called

life tables

Enterprising insurance companies make good use of these

life tables, taking the probability of death at a given age and
using it to calculate insurance rates that, statistically, guarantee
a tidy profit.
139
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141
142
143
 TYPES OF LIFE TABLE

Complete
Abridged

Deals with the age intervals larger than one year(

Usually 5 years) except for first year of life
 MORTALITY
Experience of a population in terms of death.
1. Crude Death Rate
2. Standardized Death Rates
3. Cause Specific Death Rates
4. Case Fatality Rate
5. Infant Mortality Rate
6. Maternal Mortality Rate
 NET MIGRATION

Total number of persons added or

subtracted from a population as a
result of the combined effect of
immigration and emigration (In
migration or Out migration)
 URBANIZATION
It occurs due to migration of rural population into
urban centers resulting in increasing the urban
population and growth of cities

“PUSH & PULL HYPOTHESIS” ?

 POPULATION GROWTH RATE

 It refers to rate at which a given population is

expected to increase in a given period of time

It is shown in percentage per year.

 Replacement Level Fertility

It is also known as ‘Zero population growth’

(ZPG).
It is achieved when a couple has two births
during their reproductive life, just enough to
replace themselves.
 MOMENTUM OF POPULATION GROWTH

It is characteristic of population growth

when a sharp decline in birth does not bring
in an immediate reduction in natural increase

It is due to presence of existing Birth

Cohorts.
 Demographic Cycle (DEMOGRAPHIC
TRANSITION)

According to history of world population since 1650 “There is a demographic

cycle of 5 stages through which a nation passes:

First stage: High stationary

Second stage: Early expanding
Third stage: Late expanding
Fourth stage: Low stationary
Fifth stage: Declining
First Stage ( High Stationary)
High birth rate and high death rate

Second Stage (Early Expanding)

Death rate begins to decline and birth rate remains unchanged

Third Stage ( Late Expanding)

Death rate declines still further, and the birth rate tends to fall, births
exceed death
Fourth Stage (Low Stationary)

Low birth and low death rate with the result the population
becomes stationary

Fifth stage ( DECLINING)

BR is lower than DR

DR= DEATH RATE BR= BIRTH RATE

DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION
157
158
DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION
160
 Pakistan & Demographic Transition Cycle
 Since 1998, Pakistan has been in the third stage of the
demographic transition whereby birth rates have fallen as a
result of contraceptive awareness, wage increases and
urbanization, but not made headway in further reducing
fertility rates to reach stage four, where birth rates are equal
to death rates i.e. the replacement level fertility rate

 The current population growth rate of Pakistan is 2.4%

Pakistan Current population is 207 million = 20 crore 70

lakh 161
162
163
164
165
 Reasons of High Mortality in Past

1. Acute and chronic food shortages causing

famine and malnutrition

2. Epidemic disease

3. Poor public health conditions

 Causes of Rapid Mortality Decline
1. Increased agriculture production
2. Industrialization
3. Improved transportation
4. Special reforms/ Education
5. Control of temperature and humidity
6. Public sanitation/ Antibiotics
7. Improved personal hygiene
8. Immunology
 POPULATION DYNAMICS
It can be understood by the help of

BASIC DEMOGRAPHIC EQUATION.

Or
BALANCING EQUATION

Pt1 = Pt0 + (B – D ) + (IM – OM )

In other words there are four ways in which the population of

people in an area can change during two time periods ( t0

and t1 )
1. Number of live births to mothers living in the area
(B).
2. Number of residents died (D).
3. Number of persons moving into the area for
permanent residence ( In migration, IM).
4. Number of persons moving out of the area to live
elsewhere (Out migration, OM).
 NATURAL INCREASE
The population of an area can change due to natural reasons, like ,

(B – D )
 NET MIGRATION
Population of an area may change due to migration
like,

( IM – OM )
 POPULATION GROWTH
Population Growth =

Natural increase + Net

migration
174
 Population Growth Rate & PROJECTION

It is usually expressed in percentage which helps us

calculate the rate at which the population of a
country or community is growing.
 Effects Of Population Growth Rate On Further
Population
Principles of compound growth rate is applied to calculate the effects
of population growth rate on further population

Therefore a quick way to figure out how long it will take a population to
double in size, is to divide 70 by growth rate

If a population is growing at the rate of 1% per year, it will double in

about 70 years.

Therefore a population growing at the rate of 2% annually, will double in

35 years (70/2).
 If one wants to estimate population of a
community 5 years later (PROJECTED Population);
i.e. in the year 2025(Pt1), given the 2020 population
(Pt0) is 20,000 and annual growth rate is 3 %, the
following formula is used:
Pt1 = Pt0 ( 1 + r )t
Where,
Pt0 = present population
Pt1 = future population
r = Growth rate per person
( growth rate divided by 100) and
t = number of years between t0 and t1

Thus,
P2025 = population in 2020 i.e.
20,000 (1 + .03)5
= 20,000 X 1.159
= 23,185
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184
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