What is COP27?
COP27 takes place in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt and marks 30 years since the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was adopted and seven years since the
Paris Agreement was agreed at COP21.
An annual event, the ‘Conference of the Parties’ or ‘COP’ brings together the governments
which have signed the UNFCCC, the Kyoto Protocol or the Paris Agreement.
World leaders, ministers, and negotiators come together to agree how to jointly address
climate change and its impacts. Civil society, businesses, international organizations, and the
media ‘observe’ proceedings to bring transparency, as well as broader perspectives, to the
process.
With the strapline, ‘Together for implementation,’ COP27 will be an African COP, and the first
of two COPS in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. COP26 in 2021 was jointly
hosted in Glasgow, Scotland by the UK and Italy, who continue to hold the COP presidency
until COP27 begins. COP28 will be held in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in 2023.
What are the key issues under discussion?
Since 2015, under the legally-binding Paris Agreement treaty, almost all countries in the
world have committed to:
Keep the rise in global average temperature to ‘well below’ 2°C, and ideally 1.5°C, above pre-
industrial levels.
Strengthen the ability to adapt to climate change and build resilience.
Align finance flows with ‘a pathway towards low greenhouse gas emissions and climate-
resilient development’.
The Paris Agreement has a ‘bottom-up’ approach where individual countries decide what
action they will take.
Together for implementation,’ COP27 will be an African COP, and the first of two COPS in the
Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region.
For mitigation (limiting the extent to which the climate changes) countries communicate
their emissions reductions targets, and how these will be achieved, in ‘nationally determined
contributions’, or ‘NDCs.’ Current NDCs cover action to 2030, and ambition should be raised
every five years under the Paris ‘ratchet mechanism’.
For adaptation (adjusting to current and future climate change impacts) the equivalent of
the mitigation ‘NDC’ is the National Adaptation Plan (NAP), detailing approaches to reduce
vulnerability, build capacity to adapt and resilience, and to integrate climate adaptation into
policies and planning at a national level.
Under the Paris Agreement, NAPs are to be submitted and updated ‘periodically.’ There is no
formal five year ‘ratchet’ mechanism for adaptation.
2015
is when the first legally-binding global treaty on climate change was agreed at COP21 in
Paris, France.
Why is COP27 important?
The world’s leading scientific authority on climate change, the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC), states that the world is now in extraordinarily dangerous territory.
Every small delay to proportionate action on mitigation and adaptation is a move closer to
irredeemable damage to the climate and its ability to meet human needs.
Around half of the world’s population is ‘highly vulnerable’ to the impacts of climate change,
with those in highly vulnerable regions already 15 times more likely to die due to floods,
droughts, and storms compared to regions with very low vulnerability.
Our shared planet is changing for the worse and we can only address that together through
this international system.
Alok Sharma, President, COP26
Radically transformative action is needed within this decade on both mitigation and
adaptation. This urgency is recognized in the convening of countries at COP27.
COP27 is a rare opportunity for parties and observers to come together and grapple with a
challenge that is impacting all of humanity. While the COP takes place in the context of a
global ‘polycrisis,’ climate action and cooperation can provide effective ways forward on
food, energy, nature, and security, and a vital nexus of international dialogue and
cooperation on these issues.
What does COP27 hope to achieve?
Mitigation
COP26 was the first test of the Paris ratchet mechanism for raising mitigation ambition
through NDCs. Emissions cuts promised ahead of COP26 remained insufficient to limit
global warming to the agreed levels, and the summit ended with The Glasgow
Climate Pact calling for countries to put forward strengthened targets within the year.
This call for revisions in 2022 adds another ‘tooth’ to the Paris ratchet, ahead of the next
scheduled NDC revision in 2025. While COP27 was not originally a major milestone on the
Paris Agreement calendar, the unfinished business of Glasgow means it will now be a critical
test of whether the international process can respond to the increasing urgency of the
situation.
10.6%
is the emissions increase expected by 2030 under current Paris pledges.
As COP27 rapidly approaches, few countries have answered the call to submit new, revised
or updated NDCs, and those that have mostly failed to strengthen targets.
The UNFCCC’s latest assessment shows that as of late September 2022, mitigation
commitments in NDCs would, if implemented, increase emissions by 10.6 per cent by 2030,
in strong contrast to the 45 per cent emissions reduction needed to align with a 1.5°C
pathway. Under current pledges, the world would be likely to see a catastrophic 2.5°C
warming by the end of the century.
According to the IPCC, in all scenarios in line with 1.5°C or 2°C warming limits, global
emissions must fall between 2020 and 2025. In reality, emissions are still rising, with
atmospheric levels of the three main greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, methane, and
nitrous oxide) all reaching new record highs in 2021.
Every fractional degree of warming translates into escalating climate impacts for vulnerable
communities across the world, and moves the planet closer to irreversible ‘tipping points’ at
which unpredictable destabilization will occur.
Although the COP27 host Egypt and outgoing COP president the UK have submitted
revisions, neither has increased ambition. Australia, facilitated by a change in government, is
the only country to have increased ambition since COP26 so far. While the US has come
forward with major legislation to support climate action (the ‘Inflation Reduction Act’) this
will, if fully implemented, only lead to a 40 per cent cut in emissions, with work remaining to
close the gap to the NDC pledge of 50-52 per cent reduction by 2030.
Hopes of tackling this gaping gap in ambition are pinned on the agreement of the
‘mitigation work programme’ process at COP27, which aims to urgently scale up mitigation
ambition and implementation before 2030. It is hoped a draft decision on upscaling
ambition will be adopted at COP27 as progress will be a crucial element of
global governance for closing the emissions gap this decade and keeping 1.5˚C in reach.
There will also be a reality check for the UK COP26 presidency focus on specific sectoral
mitigation action – framed as ‘coal, cars, cash, and trees.’ COP27 is an important moment for
assessing progress on the flurry of plurilateral deals agreed at COP26, on issues from fossil
fuel phase out to reducing methane emissions and ending deforestation.
Adaptation
COP27 is taking place in a highly climate-vulnerable country on a highly climate-vulnerable
continent.
Adaptation has long received less attention and less finance than mitigation. At COP26,
efforts to change this included the Glasgow Climate Pact, urging developed countries to at
least double adaptation finance as well as the launch of a two-year work programme on the
global goal on adaptation (GGA).
Following another summer of extreme weather, including in the Global North, the urgency
of adaptation to climate change is increasingly obvious to those who have the most finances
and technological capacity to implement change.
The GGA seeks to help countries to adapt, increase resilience to climate change and reduce
their vulnerability through, and complementary with, sustainable development.
Unlike the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C or 2°C goals mitigation goals, the GGA lacks clear
definition, an ‘endpoint’ and a ‘ratchet mechanism’ for ambition. Progress on defining the
GGA at COP27 would help increase ambition and momentum on adaptation.
Vulnerable countries have long been calling for support to adapt to climate impacts, but as
climate impacts are not limited by national borders, adaptation should be of greater
international concern. Following another summer of extreme weather, including in the
Global North, the urgency of adaptation to climate change is increasingly obvious to those
who have the most finances and technological capacity to implement change.
First-hand experiences of failed harvests and heat stress at home, and increasing experience
of transboundary climate change impacts spilling across borders, may have pushed the
climate crisis up the public and political agenda in developed countries. Many will be hoping
to see a keener understanding of the need for adaptation from a wider array of countries at
COP27, and for greater support to facilitate implementation of adaptation plans.
Finance
A significant point of frustration and anger among developing countries at COP26 was the
failure to deliver on promises of regular climate finance.
The Central Banks of the wealthiest countries engaged in $25 trillion of quantitative easing
in 13 years. Had we used this to purchase bonds that financed the energy transition, we
would be keeping within 1.5°C.
Mia Amor Mottley, Prime Minister of Barbados, COP26 World Leaders’ Summit
At COP27, developing countries will hope to see the fulfilment of historic promises, such as
the $100 billion annual climate finance which developed countries were meant to deliver
each year, from 2020 to 2025, but which so far has not been met.
Although rich countries are facing financial challenges at home with prospects of recession,
rising energy and food prices, and citizens struggling to cope with the cost-of-living crisis, it
is important climate finance for developing countries is not deprioritized.
The IMF estimates developing countries need $2.5 trillion of external financing annually
until 2030 to meet the Paris Agreement and Sustainable Development Goals. Because the
impacts of climate vulnerability are not contained within countries’ borders, financing global
mitigation and adaptation is in the self-interest of all.
Loss and damage
Loss and damage refers to destructive impacts of climate change that cannot be avoided
either by mitigation or adaptation. Developing countries, which contribute least to climate
change, are seeking financial support towards the cost of loss and damage from developed
countries whose current and historic activities have largely contributed to the climate crisis.
