July 2024 The Roundup
Daily News Brief
July 20, 2024 (Saturday)
GLOBAL
Asia Pacific
1. US to support Philippines' efforts to resupply ship on atoll, Sullivan says.
The United States "will do what is necessary" to see that the Philippines is able to
resupply a ship on the Second Thomas Shoal that Manila uses to reinforce its claims to
the atoll, White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said on Friday.
2. US opens embassy in Vanuatu, latest step in China competition. The
United States opened an embassy in the Pacific island nation of Vanuatu on Thursday,
the latest U.S. move in a long-running competition with China for influence in the Asia
Pacific region.
Russia/Europe/West
3. Biden insists on staying in race against Trump in US election. Amid growing
calls from Democrats for him to withdraw from the 2024 race and a Covid-19 diagnosis,
President Biden is urging party unity to confront Donald Trump’s agenda, asserting he
has a clear path to victory despite internal dissent.
4. UK will not help Ukraine hit targets in Russia, defence secretary says.
Britain will not help Ukraine hit targets in Russia, the defence secretary has said,
as Volodymyr Zelenskiy appealed directly to the cabinet to use British-made weapons
more freely.
5. 'It's been 18 months' and F-16s have not yet arrived, Zelensky says.
Ukraine is yet to receive the first of the pledged F-16 fighter jets, despite waiting
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for them for a year and a half, President Volodymyr Zelensky said in an interview with the
BBC on July 18.
6. Intel Says Russia Looking To Arm Houthis With Anti-Ship Missiles: Report.
Russia might arm Yemen’s Houthi rebels with advanced anti-ship missiles in
response to Ukraine’s use of American weapons on its territory, U.S. intelligence agencies
are warning, according to The Wall Street Journal. The news comes as Israel is
threatening to strike Yemen in response to a deadly drone attack on Tel Aviv Friday
morning, the first lethal Houthi strike on Israel.
REGIONAL
India/South Asia
7. Bangladesh army enforces curfew as student-led protests spiral.
Bangladesh soldiers patrolled Dhaka’s deserted streets on July 20 amid a curfew
to quell deadly student-led protests against government job quotas that have killed more
than 100 people this week.
8. Amid rising Chinese activities, India clears major plans to build two military
airfields in Lakshadweep. India has approved a significant plan to enhance its
defense capabilities by building military airfields in the Lakshadweep islands. This
includes constructing a new airbase on Minicoy island and expanding the existing airfield
on Agatti island.
IIOJK
9. Indian Army readjusting troop deployment in Jammu region to counter terror
attacks. The Indian Army has deployed around 500 Para Special Forces
commandos in the area to hunt down the 50-55 terrorists from Pakistan who have entered
the region to revive terrorism there, defence sources told ANI.
Afghanistan
10. Pakistan reiterates call for Taliban to act against TTP. Pakistan’s Ministry
of Foreign Affairs on Friday renewed its call for the Taliban to take decisive action against
Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) members, whom Islamabad accuses of orchestrating
deadly attacks on Pakistani forces.
Middle East/Africa
11. 'Illegal' And 'Must End': ICJ On Israel's Presence In Occupied Palestinian
Territories. The International Court of Justice said in its non-binding opinion issued on
Friday that Israel has abused its status as the occupying power in the West Bank and
east Jerusalem by carrying out policies of annexing territory, imposing permanent control
and building settlements.
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12. Turkey to send navy to Somalia after agreeing oil and gas search.
Turkey is set to send navy support to Somali waters after the two countries agreed
Ankara will send an exploration vessel off the coast of Somalia to prospect for oil and gas.
13. Gaza conflict could fuel IS and al-Qaida revival, security experts warn.
Security services across the Middle East fear the conflict in Gaza will allow Islamic
State (IS) and al-Qaida to rebuild across the region, leading to a wave of terrorist plots in
coming months and years.
Iran
14. Iran can produce material for nuclear bomb in weeks, US says. US Secretary
of State Blinken says Iran can probably be capable of producing fissile material within
"one or two weeks." The country resumed its nuclear program after the US under Trump
withdrew from the 2015 JCPOA deal.
INTERNAL
Security
15. Pakistan offers cooperation to Oman in fighting terrorism. Prime
Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Friday strongly condemned the dastardly terrorist attack on
Imambargah Ali bin Abu Talib in the Wadi Kabir district of Muscat on July 16 and offered
Pakistan’s support to Oman in the elimination of terrorism in all of its forms.
16. TTP Chief Noor Wali orders bombings of Pakistani govt hospitals and
schools. Bannned Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) is hitting hard Pakistan with
deadly terror attacks, and the outfit chief Noor Wali Mehsud now directing bombers to
blow up government-run schools and hospitals.
17. Pakistan arrests Al-Qaeda leader listed by United Nations. Pakistani
counter-terror officials have arrested an Al-Qaeda leader, Amin ul Haq, who figures on a
U.N. sanctions list, they said on Friday, describing him as a close associate of the dead
Osama Bin Laden, the mastermind of the 9/11 attacks on the U.S.
Economy
18. Pakistan records $1.9 billion in foreign investment for FY 2023-24.
Pakistan witnessed a significant inflow of foreign investment, totaling $1.9 billion,
during the financial year 2023-24, according to the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP). The
SBP report highlighted that in June alone, foreign investments amounted to $17 million.
19. Pakistan's IMF program 'at risk' if agriculture goes untaxed. Taxing
agriculture is a core component of the International Monetary Fund's new program for
Pakistan and is critical to its success, said Nathan Porter, the IMF's chief of mission for
Pakistan. "If the commitment is not followed, the program's success will be at risk," Porter
told Nikkei Asia.
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Politics
20. PML-N, PPP deliberate on PTI ban and Article 6 actions. Pakistan Muslim
League-Nawaz (PML-N) and the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) have begun the
consultation over a potential ban on the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and actions under
Article 6 against Imran Khan, Arif Alvi, and Qasim Suri.
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Curated Analysis
Opportunities and Challenges for Pakistan in the aftermath of Taliban’s takeover of
Afghanistan
1. Historical Context
The United States has fought two significant wars in Afghanistan. The first was a proxy
war (1979-1989) against Soviet forces, which concluded with a sense of victory for the
US. The second was a direct war following the 9/11 attacks (2001-2021), which ended
with the withdrawal of American troops and the Taliban's rapid takeover, marking a defeat
for the US.
2. Theoretical Framework
2.1. Human Security Theory
The impacts of the Taliban's takeover are analyzed through the lens of human security,
focusing on the societal, economic, political, military, and environmental sectors.
2.2. Modern World-System Theory
Immanuel Wallerstein's theory suggests that the world is interconnected, with regions
functionally related. Any chaotic situation in Afghanistan affects global stability,
particularly due to its strategic location and transit routes.
3. Impacts and Pakistan’s Strategic Concerns
3.1. Humanitarian Crisis and Refugee Influx
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The Taliban's takeover has led to a humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan, causing a
significant influx of refugees into Pakistan. These refugees, many of whom are
unregistered and unemployed, pose a variety of challenges, including increased
crime rates, pressure on local resources, and potential involvement in terrorist
activities.
3.2. Economic Impacts
The arrival of Afghan refugees impacts Pakistan's economy in several ways:
➢ Competition for resources such as water, land, and employment.
➢ Disturbance in local markets due to the influx of cheaper goods and services.
➢ Risk of being placed on the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) grey list, which
could deter international investment.
3.3. Political Stability
The presence of refugees and the resurgence of extremist groups like Tehrik-i-Taliban
Pakistan (TTP) pose significant threats to Pakistan's political stability. Internal strife,
ideological factions, and the potential for renewed militancy are critical concerns.
3.4. Military Challenges
Pakistan has already paid a high price in the fight against terrorism, losing
approximately 70,000 lives and suffering economic losses of around $100
billion. The Taliban's return to power could exacerbate security issues, leading to
more attacks on Pakistani forces and civilians.
3.5. Environmental Concerns
The influx of refugees can lead to environmental degradation, including deforestation,
soil erosion, and pollution. Additionally, the spread of diseases from unvaccinated
refugees poses a significant health risk.
4. Way Forward
4.1. Engaging with the Taliban
Pakistan and Afghanistan need to develop friendly relations to mitigate negative
externalities. Trust-building and inclusive approaches involving official representatives
and think tanks are essential.
4.2. Regional Cooperation
Enhanced trade and connectivity between Pakistan and Afghanistan can provide
economic opportunities. Joint military training and cultural exchanges can help
stabilize relations.
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Amid rising Chinese activities, India clears major plans to build two military
airfields in Lakshadweep
India's recent approval to construct new military
airfields in the Lakshadweep islands is a strategic
move aimed at countering China's increasing
activities in the Indian Ocean region. The
development includes a new airbase on
Minicoy island and an expanded airfield on
Agatti island, poised to enhance both
defensive capabilities and surveillance reach
in the Arabian Sea.
Impacts on Pakistan
1. Geopolitical Dynamics: The enhanced
Indian military presence in the Arabian Sea,
close to Pakistani waters and in proximity to
key shipping routes, could increase strategic
pressure on Pakistan. This move might drive
Islamabad to reassess its naval defense
strategies.
2. Chinese-Pakistani Collaboration: With China and Pakistan closely collaborating in
the region, particularly through projects like the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor
(CPEC), India’s bolstered surveillance and military capabilities could complicate
Pakistani logistics.
3. Increased Surveillance: Enhanced Indian surveillance capabilities can lead to
increased monitoring of Pakistani movements and potential intelligence-gathering on
activities in the Arabian Sea and adjacent coastal areas.
4. Defensive Posture: Pakistan may feel compelled to increase its defensive measures,
including potential upgrades to its naval and aerial forces, to counterbalance India's
fortified presence.
Way Forward for Pakistan
1. Deepen Sino-Pak Cooperation: Pakistan should further deepen its defense and
strategic partnership with China to counterbalance India’s military expansion. Joint
naval exercises and shared intelligence operations can serve as effective
countermeasures.
2. Engage Other Allies: Strengthening ties with other regional players and expanding
alliances, such as with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members, may provide
strategic depth and alternative support channels.
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3. Modernization of Forces: Pakistan needs to focus on modernizing its naval and air
force capabilities. Investments in advanced aircraft, drones, and naval vessels will be
crucial to maintaining a strategic balance.
4. Regional Diplomacy: Engaging in active diplomacy with neighboring countries to
mitigate tensions and foster collaborative security frameworks in the Indian Ocean
region.
5. International Forums: Advocating for balanced security measures and transparency
in military expansions through international forums like the United Nations or the
Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA), to ensure regional stability and avoid
escalations.
By taking these steps, Pakistan can navigate the challenges posed by India’s new military
developments in Lakshadweep, maintaining its strategic interests and regional security.
US opens embassy in Vanuatu, latest step in China competition
The United States’ decision to open an embassy in Vanuatu marks another strategic move
in its ongoing
competition with
China for influence
in the Asia-Pacific
region. This
follows the
establishment of
U.S. embassies in
the Solomon
Islands and Tonga,
with plans for a
future embassy in
Kiribati.
Impacts
1. Countering
Chinese Influence: The new embassy strengthens the U.S. diplomatic footprint in the
Pacific, countering China’s growing presence. By bolstering its presence in Vanuatu,
the U.S. aims to secure strategic alliances and partnerships, limiting China’s influence
over Pacific island nations.
2. Regional Stability: Increased U.S. engagement may promote stability in the region
by offering alternatives to Chinese aid and security arrangements, which the U.S.
3. Enhanced Diplomacy: The embassy will facilitate closer diplomatic relations and
provide a platform for increased U.S. involvement in Pacific affairs, fostering more
robust bilateral and multilateral engagements.
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4. Aid and Development: With a direct diplomatic presence, the U.S. can better
coordinate aid and development projects, potentially swaying Pacific nations away
from dependence on Chinese assistance.
Way Forward
1. Building Stronger Alliances:
• Engagement Initiatives: The U.S. should launch initiatives that foster deeper ties
with Vanuatu, including economic aid packages, educational exchanges, and
infrastructural development projects.
• Multilateral Forums: Actively participate in regional organizations like the Pacific
Islands Forum to strengthen collaborative efforts and ensure a unified approach to
regional issues.
2. Economic and Security Cooperation:
• Economic Partnerships: Encourage American businesses to invest in Vanuatu,
promoting economic growth and diversification. This can provide sustainable
alternatives to Chinese investments.
• Security Cooperation: Work on joint security agreements and training programs
with the Vanuatu security forces to enhance maritime security and resilience
against external threats.
3. Public Diplomacy:
• Cultural and Educational Exchanges: Promote cultural and educational
exchange programs that build goodwill and mutual understanding between the
U.S. and Vanuatu.
• Transparent Communication: Maintain transparent communication channels
with the Vanuatu government and its citizens to build trust and combat any
misinformation regarding U.S. intentions.
'Illegal' And 'Must End': ICJ On Israel's Presence In Occupied Palestinian Territories
The International Court of Justice (ICJ) has recently issued a non-binding opinion
declaring Israel's presence in the West Bank and East Jerusalem as unlawful, urging an
end to its policies of annexation, permanent control, and settlement building. This decision
comes in the broader context of Israel's complex and protracted military and political
engagements in the Palestinian territories.
Impacts
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1. International Isolation: The ICJ’s ruling may isolate Israel further on the international
stage, particularly from legal and human rights perspectives. Countries may increase
their recognition of Palestine and impose diplomatic pressures on Israel.
2. Increased Support for Palestine: The ruling strengthens the advocacy efforts of
international and grassroots movements such as the Boycott, Divestment, and
Sanctions (BDS) campaign, potentially garnering more global support for the
Palestinian cause.
3. Diplomatic Relations: Countries sympathetic to the Palestinian cause, especially in
Europe and the Global South, may use this ruling as a basis to re-evaluate or
downgrade their relationship with Israel, imposing sanctions or other diplomatic
actions.
4. Strengthening Legal Challenges: The ICJ’s opinion provides a legal framework for
future challenges against Israeli policies in international courts, potentially leading to
legal consequences for Israeli actions in the occupied territories.
5. Impact on Bilateral Agreements: States and international bodies may use the ruling
to push for a re-negotiation of agreements involving Israel and Palestine, ensuring
adherence to international laws and norms.
Way Forward
For Israel:
1. Re-evaluation of Policies: Israel should consider re-evaluating its policies in the
occupied territories to align with international law, fostering a political environment
conducive to peace negotiations.
2. Engage in Negotiations: Reengaging in meaningful negotiations with Palestinian
leaders, facilitated by international mediators, to achieve a lasting solution that
respects both parties' rights and aspirations.
For Palestine:
1. Leveraging International Support: Palestinian authorities should capitalize on the
ICJ’s ruling to bolster international support, mobilizing diplomatic efforts to advocate
for an end to the occupation and the establishment of a sovereign Palestinian state.
2. Strengthening Legal Framework: Working with international legal experts to mount
further legal challenges against Israeli policies, aiming to hold Israel accountable on
international platforms.
For the International Community:
1. Enforcement of International Norms: The UN and other international bodies need
to take concrete actions to enforce international law in the region, including imposing
sanctions or diplomatic pressures on Israel to comply with the ICJ's ruling.
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2. Facilitating Dialogue: Actively promoting and facilitating dialogue between Israel and
Palestine, ensuring that any agreements are based on mutual respect and adherence
to international legal standards.
Iran can produce material for nuclear bomb in weeks, US says
The United States has recently warned that Iran could produce the necessary fissile
material for a nuclear weapon within "one or two weeks." This assessment comes amid
escalating tensions and after Iran resumed its nuclear program following the U.S.
withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2018.
Impacts
1. Regional Instability: Iran’s potential to produce nuclear material exacerbates
tensions in the Middle East, particularly with regional rivals like Israel and Saudi
Arabia. This could lead to an arms race and increased proxy conflicts.
2. Global Security Concerns: The rapid development in Iran's nuclear capabilities
alarms global powers and may prompt the international community to take more
stringent measures, impacting global diplomatic dynamics and economic sanctions.
3. Diplomatic Strain: The U.S. and its allies may increase diplomatic pressures and
sanctions against Iran, further isolating Tehran internationally.
4. Internal Iranian Politics: While Iran's government seeks to project strength, domestic
opposition may amplify, particularly if the situation leads to increased economic
hardships due to sanctions.
5. Sanctions and Economic Pressures: Intensified sanctions could further cripple
Iran’s economy, impacting oil exports and leading to domestic unrest.
6. Global Oil Markets: Heightened tensions could disrupt oil supplies from the region,
leading to increased global oil prices and economic uncertainties.
Way Forward
1. Diplomatic Engagement: Re-engaging with Iran diplomatically to bring it back into
compliance with the JCPOA or any revised nuclear agreement. This might involve
concessions that address Iran’s economic hardships while ensuring stringent
monitoring of its nuclear activities.
2. Economic Reforms by Iranian Govt: Focus on economic reforms and diversification
to reduce reliance on oil exports. A stable, diversified economy could mitigate the
impacts of international sanctions and improve domestic conditions.
3. Mediation and Dialogue: The UN and other international bodies should facilitate
dialogue between Iran and major world powers. Mediation efforts should aim at de-
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escalation and the establishment of a long-term, verifiable agreement on nuclear
activities.
4. Enhanced Sanctions Framework: Implement a balanced sanctions framework that
targets Iran's nuclear advancements while allowing humanitarian aid and economic
relief in non-nuclear sectors, fostering goodwill and cooperation.
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