Climate Change

Reconsidered

Lead Authors

Craig Idso (USA), S. Fred Singer (USA)

Contributors and Reviewers

Warren Anderson (USA), J. Scott Armstrong (USA), Dennis Avery (USA),

Franco Battaglia (Italy), Robert Carter (Australia), Piers Corbyn (UK),
Richard Courtney (UK), Joseph d’Aleo (USA), Don Easterbrook (USA),
Fred Goldberg (Sweden), Vincent Gray (New Zealand), William Gray (USA),
Kesten Green (Australia), Kenneth Haapala (USA), David Hagen (USA),
Klaus Heiss (Austria), Zbigniew Jaworowski (Poland), Olavi Karner (Estonia),
Richard Alan Keen (USA), Madhav Khandekar (Canada), William Kininmonth (Australia),
Hans Labohm (Netherlands), Anthony Lupo (USA), Howard Maccabee (USA),
H. Michael Mogil (USA), Christopher Monckton (UK), Lubos Motl (Czech Republic),
Stephen Murgatroyd (Canada), Nicola Scafetta (USA), Harrison Schmitt (USA),
Tom Segalstad (Norway), George Taylor (USA), Dick Thoenes (Netherlands),
Anton Uriarte (Spain), Gerd Weber (Germany)

Editors

Joseph L. Bast (USA), Diane Carol Bast (USA)

2009 Report of the Nongovernmental International

Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC)

Published for the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC)

 Climate Change Reconsidered

8 2009, Science and Environmental Policy Project and

Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change

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Opinions expressed are solely those of the authors.

Nothing in this report should be construed as reflecting the views of
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Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change,
or The Heartland Institute,
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Please use the following citation for this report:

Craig Idso and S. Fred Singer, Climate Change Reconsidered: 2009 Report of the
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ISBN-13 – 978-1-934791-28-8
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June 2009
Preface

Before facing major surgery, wouldn’t you want a Rather, our conclusion is that the evidence shows the
second opinion? net effect of continued warming and rising carbon
When a nation faces an important decision that dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere will be
risks its economic future, or perhaps the fate of the beneficial to humans, plants, and wildlife.
ecology, it should do the same. It is a time-honored We have reviewed the materials presented in the
tradition in science to set up a “Team B,” which first two volumes of the Fourth Assessment—The
examines the same original evidence but may reach a Physical Science Basis and Impacts, Adaptation and
different conclusion. The Nongovernmental Vulnerability—and we find them to be highly
International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC) was selective and controversial with regard to making
set up to examine the same climate data used by the future projections of climate change and discerning a
United Nations-sponsored Intergovernmental Panel significant human-induced influence on current and
on Climate Change (IPCC). past climatic trends. Although the IPCC claims to be
In 2007, the IPCC released to the public its three- unbiased and to have based AR4 on the best available
volume Fourth Assessment Report titled Climate science, such is not the case. In many instances
Change 2007 (IPCC-AR4, 2007). Its constituent conclusions have been seriously exaggerated, relevant
documents were said by the IPCC to comprise “the facts have been distorted, and key scientific studies
most comprehensive and up-to-date reports available have been omitted or ignored.
on the subject,” and to constitute “the standard We present support for this thesis in the body of
reference for all concerned with climate change in this volume, where we describe and reference
academia, government and industry worldwide.” But thousands of peer-reviewed scientific journal articles
are these characterizations correct? that document scientific or historical facts that
On the most important issue, the IPCC’s claim contradict the IPCC’s central claims, that global
that “most of the observed increase in global average warming is man-made and that its effects will be
temperatures since the mid-twentieth century is very catastrophic. Some of this research became available
likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic after the AR4’s self-imposed deadline of May 2006,
greenhouse gas concentrations [emphasis in the but much of it was in the scientific record that was
original],” NIPCC reaches the opposite conclusion— available to, and should have been familiar to, the
namely, that natural causes are very likely to be the IPCC’s editors.
dominant cause. Note: We do not say anthropogenic Below, we first sketch the history of the IPCC
greenhouse gases (GHG) cannot produce some and NIPCC, which helps explain why two scientific
warming or has not in the past. Our conclusion is that bodies could study the same data and come to very
the evidence shows they are not playing a substantial different conclusions. We then explain the list of
role. 31,478 American scientists that appears in Appendix
Almost as importantly, on the question of what 4, and end by expressing what we hoped to achieve
effects the present and future warming might have on by producing this report.
human health and the natural environment, the IPCC
says global warming will “increase the number of
people suffering from death, disease and injury from A Brief History of the IPCC
heatwaves, floods, storms, fires and droughts.” The
NIPCC again reaches the opposite conclusion: A The rise in environmental consciousness since the
warmer world will be a safer and healthier world for 1970s has focused on a succession of ‘calamities’:
humans and wildlife alike. Once again, we do not say cancer epidemics from chemicals, extinction of birds
global warming won’t occur or have any effects and other species by pesticides, the depletion of the
(positive or negative) on human health and wildlife.

iii
 Climate Change Reconsidered

ozone layer by supersonic transports and later by the Montreal Protocol, environmental lawyer David
freons, the death of forests (‘Waldsterben’) because Doniger of the Natural Resources Defense Council
of acid rain, and finally, global warming, the “mother then laid out a plan to achieve the same kind of
of all environmental scares” (according to the late control mechanism for greenhouse gases, a plan that
Aaron Wildavsky). eventually was adopted as the Kyoto Protocol.
The IPCC can trace its roots to World Earth Day From the very beginning, the IPCC was a
in 1970, the Stockholm Conference in 1971-72, and political rather than scientific entity, with its leading
the Villach Conferences in 1980 and 1985. In July scientists reflecting the positions of their governments
1986, the United Nations Environment Program or seeking to induce their governments to adopt the
(UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization IPCC position. In particular, a small group of activists
(WMO) established the Intergovernmental Panel on wrote the all-important Summary for Policymakers
Climate Change (IPCC) as an organ of the United (SPM) for each of the four IPCC reports (McKitrick
Nations. et al., 2007).
The IPCC’s key personnel and lead authors were While we are often told about the thousands of
appointed by governments, and its Summaries for scientists on whose work the Assessment reports are
Policymakers (SPM) have been subject to approval by based, the vast majority of these scientists had no
member governments of the UN. The scientists direct influence on the conclusions expressed by the
involved with the IPCC are almost all supported by IPCC. Those policy summaries were produced by an
government contracts, which pay not only for their inner core of scientists, and the SPMs were revised
research but for their IPCC activities. Most travel to and agreed to, line-by-line, by representatives of
and hotel accommodations at exotic locations for the member governments. This obviously is not how real
drafting authors is paid with government funds. scientific research is reviewed and published.
The history of the IPCC has been described in These SPMs turn out, in all cases, to be highly
several publications. What is not emphasized, selective summaries of the voluminous science
however, is the fact that it was an activist enterprise reports—typically 800 or more pages, with no
from the very beginning. Its agenda was to justify indexes (except, finally, the Fourth Assessment
control of the emission of greenhouse gases, Report released in 2007), and essentially unreadable
especially carbon dioxide. Consequently, its scientific except by dedicated scientists.
reports have focused solely on evidence that might The IPCC’s First Assessment Report (IPCC-FAR,
point toward human-induced climate change. The role 1990) concluded that the observed temperature
of the IPCC “is to assess on a comprehensive, changes were “broadly consistent” with greenhouse
objective, open and transparent basis the latest models. Without much analysis, it gave the “climate
scientific, technical and socio-economic literature sensitivity” of a 1.5 to 4.5º C rise for a doubling of
produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of greenhouse gases. The IPCC-FAR led to the adoption
the risk of human-induced climate change, its of the Global Climate Treaty at the 1992 Earth
observed and projected impacts and options for Summit in Rio de Janeiro.
adaptation and mitigation” [emphasis added] (IPCC The FAR drew a critical response (SEPP, 1992).
2008). FAR and the IPCC’s style of work also were
The IPCC’s three chief ideologues have been (the criticized in two editorials in Nature (Anonymous,
late) Professor Bert Bolin, a meteorologist at 1994, Maddox, 1991).
Stockholm University; Dr. Robert Watson, an The IPCC’s Second Assessment Report (IPCC-
atmospheric chemist at NASA, later at the World SAR, 1995) was completed in 1995 and published in
Bank, and now chief scientist at the UK Department 1996. Its SPM contained the memorable conclusion,
of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs; and Dr. “the balance of evidence suggests a discernible
John Houghton, an atmospheric radiation physicist at human influence on global climate.” The SAR was
Oxford University, later head of the UK Met Office again heavily criticized, this time for having
as Sir John Houghton. undergone significant changes in the body of the
Watson had chaired a self-appointed group to find report to make it ‘conform’ to the SPM—after it was
evidence for a human effect on stratospheric ozone finally approved by the scientists involved in writing
and was instrumental in pushing for the 1987 the report. Not only was the report altered, but a key
Montreal Protocol to control the emission of graph was also doctored to suggest a human
chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs). Using the blueprint of

iv
 Preface

influence. The evidence presented to support the SPM was closed for renovation, and then finally, but only
conclusion turned out to be completely spurious. under pressure, posted them online. Inspection of
There is voluminous material available about those comments revealed that the authors had rejected
these text changes, including a Wall Street Journal more than half of all the reviewers’ comments in the
editorial article by Dr. Frederick Seitz (Seitz, 1996). crucial chapter attributing recent warming to human
This led to heated discussions between supporters of activities.
the IPCC and those who were aware of the altered AR4 concluded that “most of the observed
text and graph, including an exchange of letters in the increase in global average temperatures since the mid-
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 20th century is very likely due to the observed
(Singer et al., 1997). increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas
SAR also provoked the 1996 publication of the concentrations” (emphasis in the original). However,
Leipzig Declaration by SEPP, which was signed by as the present report will show, it ignored available
some 100 climate scientists. A booklet titled The evidence against a human contribution to current
Scientific Case Against the Global Climate Treaty warming and the substantial research of the past few
followed in September 1997 and was translated into years on the effects of solar activity on climate
several languages. (SEPP, 1997. All these are change.
available online at www.sepp.org.) In spite of its Why have IPCC reports been marred by
obvious shortcomings, the IPCC report provided the controversy and so frequently contradicted by
underpinning for the Kyoto Protocol, which was subsequent research? Certainly its agenda to find
adopted in December 1997. The background is evidence of a human role in climate change is a major
described in detail in the booklet Climate Policy— reason; its organization as a government entity
From Rio to Kyoto, published by the Hoover beholden to political agendas is another major reason;
Institution (Singer, 2000). and the large professional and financial rewards that
The Third Assessment Report of the IPCC go to scientists and bureaucrats who are willing to
(IPCC-TAR 2001) was noteworthy for its use of bend scientific facts to match those agendas is yet a
spurious scientific papers to back up its SPM claim of third major reason.
“new and stronger evidence” of anthropogenic global Another reason for the IPCC’s unreliability is the
warming. One of these was the so-called “hockey- naive acceptance by policymakers of “peer-reviewed”
stick” paper, an analysis of proxy data, which claimed literature as necessarily authoritative. It has become
the twentieth century was the warmest in the past the case that refereeing standards for many climate-
1,000 years. The paper was later found to contain change papers are inadequate, often because of the
basic errors in its statistical analysis (McIntyre and use of an “invisible college” of reviewers of like
McKitrick, 2003, 2005; Wegman et al., 2006). The inclination to a paper’s authors (Wegman et al.,
IPCC also supported a paper that claimed pre-1940 2006). Policy should be set upon a background of
warming was of human origin and caused by demonstrable science, not upon simple (and often
greenhouse gases. This work, too, contained mistaken) assertions that, because a paper was
fundamental errors in its statistical analysis. The refereed, its conclusions must be accepted.
SEPP response to TAR was a 2002 booklet, The
Kyoto Protocol is Not Backed by Science (SEPP,
2002). Nongovernmental International Panel on
The Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC Climate Change (NIPCC)
(IPCC-AR4 2007) was published in 2007; the SPM of
Working Group I was released in February; and the When new errors and outright falsehoods were
full report from this Working Group was released in observed in the initial drafts of AR4, SEPP set up a
May—after it had been changed, once again, to “Team B” to produce an independent evaluation of
“conform” to the Summary. It is significant that AR4 the available scientific evidence. While the initial
no longer makes use of the hockey-stick paper or the organization took place at a meeting in Milan in 2003,
paper claiming pre-1940 human-caused warming. Team B was activated after the AR4 SPM appeared in
Once again controversy ensued, however, this time February 2007. It changed its name to the
when the IPCC refused to publicly share comments Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate
submitted by peer-reviewers, then sent all the Change (NIPCC) and organized an international
reviewers’ comments in hard copy to a library that climate workshop in Vienna in April 2007.

v
 Climate Change Reconsidered

The present report stems from the Vienna we choose to speak up for science at a time when too
workshop and subsequent research and contributions few people outside the scientific community know
by a larger group of international scholars. For a list what is happening, and too few scientists who know
of those contributors, see page ii. Craig Idso then the truth have the will or the platforms to speak out
made a major contribution to the report by tapping the against the IPCC.
extensive collection of reviews of scientific research NIPCC is what its name suggests: an international
he helped collect and write, which is available on the panel of nongovernment scientists and scholars who
Web site of the Center for the Study of Carbon have come together to understand the causes and
Dioxide and Global Change (www.CO2science.org). consequences of climate change. Because we are not
A Summary for Policymakers, edited by S. Fred predisposed to believe climate change is caused by
Singer, was published by The Heartland Institute in human greenhouse gas emissions, we are able to look
2008 under the title Nature, Not Human Activity, at evidence the IPCC ignores. Because we do not
Rules the Planet (Singer, 2008). Since the summary work for any governments, we are not biased toward
was completed prior to a major expansion and the assumption that greater government activity is
completion of the full NIPCC report, the two necessary.
documents now stand on their own as independent
scholarly works and substantially agree.
What was our motivation? It wasn’t financial The Petition Project
self-interest: Except for a foundation grant late in the
process to enable Craig Idso to devote the many hours Attached as Appendix 4 to this report is a description
necessary to assemble and help edit the final product, of “The Petition Project” and a directory of the
no grants or contributions were provided or promised 31,478 American scientists who have signed the
in return for producing this report. It wasn’t political: following statement:
No government agency commissioned or authorized
our efforts, and we do not advise or support the We urge the United States government to reject
candidacies of any politicians or candidates for public the global warming agreement that was written in
office. Kyoto, Japan in December, 1997, and any other
We donated our time and best efforts to produce similar proposals. The proposed limits on
this report out of concern that the IPCC was greenhouse gases would harm the environment,
hinder the advance of science and technology, and
provoking an irrational fear of anthropogenic global
damage the health and welfare of mankind.
warming based on incomplete and faulty science. There is no convincing scientific evidence
Global warming hype has led to demands for that human release of carbon dioxide, methane, or
unrealistic efficiency standards for cars, the other greenhouse gases is causing or will, in the
construction of uneconomic wind and solar energy foreseeable future, cause catastrophic heating of
stations, the establishment of large production the Earth’s atmosphere and disruption of the
facilities for uneconomic biofuels such as ethanol Earth’s climate. Moreover, there is substantial
from corn, requirements that electric companies scientific evidence that increases in atmospheric
purchase expensive power from so-called carbon dioxide produce many beneficial effects
“renewable” energy sources, and plans to sequester, at upon the natural plant and animal environments of
the Earth.
considerable expense, carbon dioxide emitted from
power plants. While there is nothing wrong with
This is a remarkably strong statement of dissent
initiatives to increase energy efficiency or diversify
from the perspective advanced by the IPCC, and it is
energy sources, they cannot be justified as a realistic
similar to the perspective represented by the NIPCC
means to control climate. Neither does science justify
and the current report. The fact that more than ten
policies that try to hide the huge cost of greenhouse
times as many scientists have signed it as are alleged
gas controls, such as cap and trade, a “clean
to have “participated” in some way or another in the
development mechanism,” carbon offsets, and similar
research, writing, and review of IPCC AR4 is very
schemes that enrich a few at the expense of the rest of
significant. These scientists, who include among their
us.
number 9,029 individuals with Ph.D.s, actually
Seeing science clearly misused to shape public
endorse the statement that appears above. By contrast,
policies that have the potential to inflict severe
fewer than 100 of the scientists (and nonscientists)
economic harm, particularly on low-income groups,
who are listed in the appendices to the IPCC AR4

vi
 Preface

actually participated in the writing of the all- Czech Republic and 2009 president of the Council of
important Summary for Policymakers or the editing the European Union; Helmut Schmidt, former
of the final report to comply with the summary, and German chancellor; and Lord Nigel Lawson, former
therefore could be said to endorse the main findings United Kingdom chancellor of the exchequer. There
of that report. Consequently, we cannot say for sure is some evidence that policymakers world-wide are
whether more than 100 scientists in the entire world reconsidering the wisdom of efforts to legislate
actually endorse the most important claims that reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
appear in the IPCC AR4 report. We regret that many advocates in the debate have
We will not make the same mistake as the IPCC. chosen to give up debating the science and focus
We do not claim the 31,478 scientists whose names almost exclusively on questioning the motives of
appear at the end of this report endorse all of the “skeptics,” name-calling, and ad hominem attacks.
findings and conclusions of this report. As the authors We view this as a sign of desperation on their part,
of the petition say (in an introduction to the directory and a sign that the debate has shifted toward climate
of signers in Appendix 4), “signatories to the petition realism.
have signed just the petition—which speaks for We hope the present study will help bring reason
itself.” We append the list of their names to this report and balance back into the debate over climate change,
with the permission of the persons who maintain the and by doing so perhaps save the peoples of the world
list to demonstrate unequivocally the broad support from the burden of paying for wasteful, unnecessary
within the scientific community for the general energy and environmental policies. We stand ready to
perspective expressed in this report, and to highlight defend the analysis and conclusion in the study that
one of the most telling differences between the follows, and to give further advice to policymakers
NIPCC and the IPCC. who are open-minded on this most important topic.
For more information about The Petition Project,
including the text of the letter endorsing it written by
the late Dr. Frederick Seitz, past president of the
National Academy of Sciences and president emeritus
of Rockefeller University, please turn to Appendix 4
or visit the project’s Web site at S. Fred Singer, Ph.D.
www.petitionproject.org. President, Science and Environmental Policy Project
Professor Emeritus of Environmental Science,
University of Virginia
Looking Ahead www.sepp.org

The public’s fear of anthropogenic global warming,

despite almost hysterical coverage of the issue by the
mainstream media, seems to have hit a ceiling and is
falling. Only 34 percent of Americans polled
(Rasmussen Reports, 2009) believe humans are
causing global warming. A declining number even
believe the Earth is experiencing a warming trend Craig D. Idso, Ph.D.
(Pew Research Center, 2008). A poll of 12,000 people Chairman, Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide
in 11 countries, commissioned by the financial and Global Change
institution HSBC and environmental advocacy www.co2science.org
groups, found only one in five respondents—20
percent—said they would be willing to spend any
extra money to reduce climate change, down from 28
percent a year earlier (O’Neil, 2008). Acknowledgments: The editors thank Joseph and
While the present report makes it clear that the Diane Bast of The Heartland Institute for their
scientific debate is tilting away from global warming editorial skill and R. Warren Anderson for his
alarmism, we are pleased to see the political debate technical assistance.
also is not over. Global warming “skeptics” in the www.heartland.org
policy arena include Vaclav Klaus, president of the

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 Climate Change Reconsidered

References McKitrick, R. 2007. Independent Summary for

Policymakers IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. Ed. Fraser
Anonymous 1994. IPCC’s ritual on global warming. Institute. Vancouver, BC.
Nature 371: 269.
O’Neil, P. 2008. Efforts to support global climate-change
IPCC-AR4 2007. Climate Change 2007: The Physical falls: Poll. Canwest News Service, 27 Nov.
Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the
Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel Pew Research Center 2008. A deeper partisan divide over
on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press. global warming, summary of findings. 8 May.
http://people-press.org
IPCC-FAR 1990. Scientific Assessment of Climate Change.
Contribution of Working Group I to the First Assessment Rasmussen Reports 2009. Energy Update. April 17.
Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/
Cambridge University Press. Seitz, F. 1996. A major deception on global warming. The
IPCC-SAR 1996. Climate Change 1995: The Science of Wall Street Journal, 12 June.
Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group I to the SEPP 1992. The Greenhouse Debate Continued: An
Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel Analysis and Critique of the IPCC Climate Assessment.
on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press. ICS Press, San Francisco, CA.
IPCC-TAR 2001. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific SEPP 1997. The Scientific Case Against the Global
Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Climate Treaty. www.sepp.org/publications/GWbooklet/
Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on GW.html [Also available in German, French, and Spanish].
Climate Change. Cambridge University Press.
Singer, S.F. 1997, 1999. Hot Talk Cold Science. The
Maddox J. 1991. Making global warming public property. Independent Institute, Oakland CA.
Nature 349: 189.
Singer, S.F. 2008. Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the
McIntyre, S. and McKitrick, R. 2003. Corrections to Mann Climate. The Heartland Institute, Chicago, IL.
et al. (1998) proxy data base and northern hemisphere
average temperature series. Energy & Environment 14: Wegman, E., Scott, D.W. and Said, Y. 2006. Ad Hoc
751-777. Committee Report to Chairman of the House Committee
on Energy & Commerce and to the Chairman of the House
McIntyre, S. and McKitrick, R. 2005. Hockey sticks, sub-committee on Oversight & Investigations on the
principal components and spurious significance. Hockey-stick Global Climate Reconstructions. US House
Geophysical Research Letters 32 L03710. of Representatives, Washington DC.

viii
Table of Contents

Preface ............................................................................................................................................iii

Executive Summary........................................................................................................................1

1. Global Climate Models and Their Limitations .........................................................................9

1.1. Models and Forecasts ...............................................................................................................9
1.2 Radiation..................................................................................................................................12
1.3. Clouds......................................................................................................................................16
1.4. Precipitation .............................................................................................................................22

2. Feedback Factors and Radiative Forcing ..............................................................................27

2.1. Clouds......................................................................................................................................27
2.2. Carbonyl Sulfide ......................................................................................................................29
2.3. Diffuse Light .............................................................................................................................30
2.4. Iodocompounds .......................................................................................................................34
2.5. Nitrous Oxide ...........................................................................................................................35
2.6. Methane ...................................................................................................................................37
2.7. Dimethyl Sulfide .......................................................................................................................45
2.8. Aerosols ...................................................................................................................................48

3. Observations: Temperature Records .....................................................................................63

3.1. Paleoclimate Data ...................................................................................................................63
3.2. Past 1,000 Years .....................................................................................................................66
3.3. Urban Heat Islands ..................................................................................................................95
3.4. Fingerprints ............................................................................................................................106
3.5. Satellite Data .........................................................................................................................109
3.6. Arctic ......................................................................................................................................114
3.7. Antarctic .................................................................................................................................131

4. Observations: Glaciers, Sea Ice, Precipitation, and Sea Level.........................................135

4.1. Glaciers .................................................................................................................................135
4.2. Sea Ice...................................................................................................................................152
4.3. Precipitation Trends ..............................................................................................................162
4.4. Streamflow ............................................................................................................................175
4.5. Sea-level Rise........................................................................................................................184

5. Solar Variability and Climate Cycles ....................................................................................207

5.1. Cosmic Rays..........................................................................................................................208
5.2. Irradiance ...............................................................................................................................220
5.3. Temperature ..........................................................................................................................233
5.4. Precipitation ...........................................................................................................................258
5.5. Droughts ................................................................................................................................268
5.6. Floods ....................................................................................................................................273
5.7. Monsoons ..............................................................................................................................274
5.8. Streamflow .............................................................................................................................278

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 Climate Change Reconsidered

6. Observations: Extreme Weather ...........................................................................................281

6.1. Droughts ...............................................................................................................................281
6.2. Floods ....................................................................................................................................302
6.3. Tropical Cyclones .................................................................................................................309
6.4. ENSO.....................................................................................................................................330
6.5. Precipitation Variability .........................................................................................................336
6.6. Storms ...................................................................................................................................341
6.7. Snow ......................................................................................................................................347
6.8. Storm Surges ........................................................................................................................351
6.9. Temperature Variability ........................................................................................................352
6.10. Wildfires ...............................................................................................................................355

7. Biological Effects of Carbon Dioxide Enrichment ..............................................................361

7.1. Plant Productivity Responses ...............................................................................................362
7.2. Water Use Efficiency ............................................................................................................409
7.3. Amelioration of Environmental Stresses ..............................................................................414
7.4. Acclimation ...........................................................................................................................480
7.5. Competition ...........................................................................................................................487
7.6. Respiration ............................................................................................................................491
7.7. Carbon Sequestration ............................................................................................................497
7.8. Other Benefits .......................................................................................................................517
7.9. Greening of the Earth ...........................................................................................................551

8. Species Extinction ..................................................................................................................579

8.1. Explaining Extinction .............................................................................................................579
8.2. Terrestrial Plants....................................................................................................................590
8.3. Coral Reefs ............................................................................................................................596
8.4. Polar Bears ............................................................................................................................639

9. Human Health Effects ............................................................................................................663

9.1. Diseases ................................................................................................................................664
9.2. Nutrition .................................................................................................................................676
9.3. Human Longevity ...................................................................................................................691
9.4. Food vs. Nature .....................................................................................................................695
9.5. Biofuels ..................................................................................................................................701

APPENDIX 1: Acronyms ............................................................................................................ 709

APPENDIX 2: Plant Dry Weight Responses to Atmospheric CO2 Enrichment...........................713

APPENDIX 3: Plant Photosynthesis Responses to Atmospheric CO2 Enrichment ....................727

APPENDIX 4: The Petition Project..............................................................................................739

x
Executive Summary

The Fourth Assessment Report of the cloud effects are responsible for much of past climate
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s change. It is therefore highly likely that the Sun is
Working Group-1 (Science) (IPCC-AR4 2007), also a major cause of twentieth-century warming,
released in 2007, is a major research effort by a group with anthropogenic GHG making only a minor
of dedicated specialists in many topics related to contribution. In addition, the IPCC ignores, or
climate change. It forms a valuable compendium of addresses imperfectly, other science issues that call
the current state of the science, enhanced by having for discussion and explanation.
an index which had been lacking in previous IPCC These errors and omissions are documented in the
reports. AR4 also permits access to the numerous present report by the Nongovernmental International
critical comments submitted by expert reviewers, Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC). The report is
another first for the IPCC. divided into nine chapters that are briefly summarized
While AR4 is an impressive document, it is far here, and then more fully described in the remainder
from being a reliable reference work on some of the of this summary.
most important aspects of climate change science and Chapter 1 describes the limitations of the IPCC’s
policy. It is marred by errors and misstatements, attempt to forecast future climate conditions by using
ignores scientific data that were available but were computer climate models. The IPCC violates many of
inconsistent with the authors’ pre-conceived the rules and procedures required for scientific
conclusions, and has already been contradicted in forecasting, making its “projections” of little use to
important parts by research published since May policymakers. As sophisticated as today’s state-of-
2006, the IPCC’s cut-off date. the-art models are, they suffer deficiencies and
In general, the IPCC fails to consider important shortcomings that could alter even the very sign (plus
scientific issues, several of which would upset its or minus, warming or cooling) of earth’s projected
major conclusion—that “most of the observed temperature response to rising atmospheric CO2
increase in global average temperatures since the mid- concentrations. If the global climate models on which
20th century is very likely due to the observed the IPCC relies are not validated or reliable, most of
increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas the rest of the AR4, while it makes for fascinating
concentrations [emphasis in the original].” The IPCC reading, is irrelevant to the public policy debate over
defines “very likely” as at least 90 percent certain. what should be done to stop or slow the arrival of
They do not explain how they derive this number. global warming.
The IPCC also does not define the word “most,” nor Chapter 2 describes feedback factors that reduce
do they provide any explanation. the earth’s temperature sensitivity to changes in
The IPCC does not apply generally accepted atmospheric CO2. Scientific studies suggest the
methodologies to determine what fraction of current model-derived temperature sensitivity of the earth for
warming is natural, or how much is caused by the rise a doubling of the pre-industrial CO2 level is much
in greenhouse gases (GHG). A comparison of lower than the IPCC’s estimate. Corrected feedbacks
“fingerprints” from best available observations with in the climate system reduce climate sensitivity to
the results of state-of-the-art GHG models leads to the values that are an order of magnitude smaller than
conclusion that the (human-caused) GHG what the IPCC employs.
contribution is minor. This fingerprint evidence, Chapter 3 reviews empirical data on past
though available, was ignored by the IPCC. temperatures. We find no support for the IPCC’s
The IPCC continues to undervalue the claim that climate observations during the twentieth
overwhelming evidence that, on decadal and century- century are either unprecedented or provide evidence
long time scales, the Sun and associated atmospheric of an anthropogenic effect on climate. We reveal the

1
 Climate Change Reconsidered

methodological errors of the “hockey stick” diagram The IPCC blames high-temperature events for
of Mann et al., evidence for the existence of a global increasing the number of cardiovascular-related
Medieval Warm Period, flaws in the surface-based deaths, enhancing respiratory problems, and fueling a
temperature record of more modern times, evidence more rapid and widespread distribution of deadly
from highly accurate satellite data that there has been infectious diseases, such as malaria, dengue and
no net warming over the past 29 years, and evidence yellow fever. However, a thorough examination of the
that the distribution of modern warming does not bear peer-reviewed scientific literature reveals that further
the “fingerprint” of an anthropogenic effect. global warming would likely do just the opposite and
Chapter 4 reviews observational data on glacier actually reduce the number of lives lost to extreme
melting, sea ice area, variation in precipitation, and thermal conditions. We also explain how CO2-
sea level rise. We find no evidence of trends that induced global warming would help feed a growing
could be attributed to the supposedly anthropogenic global population without major encroachment on
global warming of the twentieth century. natural ecosystems, and how increasing production of
Chapter 5 summarizes the research of a growing biofuels (a strategy recommended by the IPCC)
number of scientists who say variations in solar damages the environment and raises the price of food.
activity, not greenhouse gases, are the true driver of The research summarized in this report is only a
climate change. We describe the evidence of a solar- small portion of what is available in the peer-
climate link and how these scientists have grappled reviewed scientific literature. To assist readers who
with the problem of finding a specific mechanism that want to explore information not contained between
translates small changes in solar activity into larger the covers of this volume, we have included Internet
climate effects. We summarize how they may have hyperlinks to the large and continuously updated
found the answer in the relationships between the sun, databases maintained by the Center for the Study of
cosmic rays and reflecting clouds. Carbon Dioxide and Global Change at
Chapter 6 investigates and debunks the www.co2science.org.
widespread fears that global warming might cause
more extreme weather. The IPCC claims global
warming will cause (or already is causing) more Key Findings by Chapter
droughts, floods, hurricanes, storms, storm surges,
heat waves, and wildfires. We find little or no support Chapter 1. Global Climate Models and Their
in the peer-reviewed literature for these predictions Limitations
and considerable evidence to support an opposite
• The IPCC places great confidence in the ability of
prediction: That weather would be less extreme in a
general circulation models (GCMs) to simulate
warmer world.
future climate and attribute observed climate
Chapter 7 examines the biological effects of
change to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse
rising CO2 concentrations and warmer temperatures.
gases.
This is the largely unreported side of the global
warming debate, perhaps because it is unequivocally • The forecasts in the Fourth Assessment Report
good news. Rising CO2 levels increase plant growth were not the outcome of validated scientific
and make plants more resistant to drought and pests. procedures. In effect, they are the opinions of
It is a boon to the world’s forests and prairies, as well scientists transformed by mathematics and
as to farmers and ranchers and the growing obscured by complex writing. The IPCC’s claim
populations of the developing world. that it is making “projections” rather than
Chapter 8 examines the IPCC’s claim that CO2- “forecasts” is not a plausible defense.
induced increases in air temperature will cause
• Today’s state-of-the-art climate models fail to
unprecedented plant and animal extinctions, both on
accurately simulate the physics of earth’s
land and in the world’s oceans. We find there little
radiative energy balance, resulting in
real-world evidence in support of such claims and an
uncertainties “as large as, or larger than, the
abundance of counter evidence that suggests
doubled CO2 forcing.”
ecosystem biodiversity will increase in a warmer and
CO2-enriched world. • A long list of major model imperfections prevents
Chapter 9 challenges the IPCC’s claim that CO2- models from properly modeling cloud formation
induced global warming is harmful to human health. and cloud-radiation interactions, resulting in large

2
 Executive Summary

differences between model predictions and function as cloud condensation nuclei. Increased
observations. cloudiness diffuses light, which stimulates plant
growth and transfers more fixed carbon into plant
• Computer models have failed to simulate even the
and soil storage reservoirs.
correct sign of observed precipitation anomalies,
such as the summer monsoon rainfall over the • Since agriculture accounts for almost half of
Indian region. Yet it is understood that nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions in some countries,
precipitation plays a major role in climate change. there is concern that enhanced plant growth due
to CO2 enrichment might increase the amount and
Chapter 2. Feedback Factors and Radiative
warming effect of this greenhouse gas. But field
Forcing research shows that N2O emissions fall as CO2
concentrations and temperatures rise, indicating
• Scientific research suggests the model-derived this is actually another negative climate feedback.
temperature sensitivity of the earth accepted by
the IPCC is too large. Corrected feedbacks in the • Methane (CH4) is a potent greenhouse gas. An
climate system could reduce climate sensitivity to enhanced CO2 environment has been shown to
values that are an order of magnitude smaller. have “neither positive nor negative
consequences” on atmospheric methane
• Scientists may have discovered a connection concentrations. Higher temperatures have been
between cloud creation and sea surface shown to result in reduced methane release from
temperature in the tropics that creates a peatbeds. Methane emissions from cattle have
“thermostat-like control” that automatically vents been reduced considerably by altering diet,
excess heat into space. If confirmed, this could immunization, and genetic selection.
totally compensate for the warming influence of
all anthropogenic CO2 emissions experienced to
date, as well as all those that are anticipated to Chapter 3. Observations: Temperature Records
occur in the future.
• The IPCC claims to find evidence in temperature
• The IPCC dramatically underestimates the total records that the warming of the twentieth century
cooling effect of aerosols. Studies have found was “unprecedented” and more rapid than during
their radiative effect is comparable to or larger any previous period in the past 1,300 years. But
than the temperature forcing caused by all the the evidence it cites, including the “hockey-stick”
increase in greenhouse gas concentrations representation of earth’s temperature record by
recorded since pre-industrial times. Mann et al., has been discredited and contradicted
by many independent scholars.
• Higher temperatures are known to increase
emissions of dimethyl sulfide (DMS) from the • A corrected temperature record shows
world’s oceans, which increases the albedo of temperatures around the world were warmer
marine stratus clouds, which has a cooling effect. during the Medieval Warm Period of
approximately 1,000 years ago than they are
• Iodocompounds—created by marine algae—
today, and have averaged 2-3ºF warmer than
function as cloud condensation nuclei, which help
today’s temperatures over the past 10,000 years.
create new clouds that reflect more incoming
solar radiation back to space and thereby cool the • Evidence of a global Medieval Warm Period is
planet. extensive and irrefutable. Scientists working with
a variety of independent methodologies have
• As the air’s CO2 content—and possibly its
found it in proxy records from Africa, Antarctica,
temperature—continues to rise, plants emit
the Arctic, Asia, Europe, North America, and
greater amounts of carbonyl sulfide gas, which
South America.
eventually makes it way into the stratosphere,
where it is transformed into solar-radiation- • The IPCC cites as evidence of modern global
reflecting sulfate aerosol particles, which have a warming data from surface-based recording
cooling effect. stations yielding a 1905-2005 temperature
increase of 0.74ºC +/- 0.18ºC. But this
• As CO2 enrichment enhances biological growth,
temperature record is known to be positively
atmospheric levels of biosols rise, many of which

3
 Climate Change Reconsidered

biased by insufficient corrections for the non- • Sea ice area and extent have continued to increase
greenhouse-gas-induced urban heat island (UHI) around Antarctica over the past few decades.
effect. It may be impossible to make proper Evidence shows that much of the reported
corrections for this deficiency, as the UHI of even thinning of Arctic sea ice that occurred in the
small towns dwarfs any concomitant augmented 1990s was a natural consequence of changes in
greenhouse effect that may be present. ice dynamics caused by an atmospheric regime
shift, of which there have been several in decades
• Highly accurate satellite data, adjusted for orbit
past and will likely be several in the decades to
drift and other factors, show a much more modest
come, totally irrespective of past or future
warming trend in the last two decades of the
changes in the air’s CO2 content. The Arctic
twentieth century and a dramatic decline in the
appears to have recovered from its 2007 decline.
warming trend in the first decade of the twenty-
first century. • Global studies of precipitation trends show no net
increase and no consistent trend with CO2,
• The “fingerprint” or pattern of warming observed
contradicting climate model predictions that
in the twentieth century differs from the pattern
warming should cause increased precipitation.
predicted by global climate models designed to
Research on Africa, the Arctic, Asia, Europe, and
simulate CO2-induced global warming. Evidence
North and South America all find no evidence of
reported by the U.S. Climate Change Science
a significant impact on precipitation that could be
Program (CCSP) is unequivocal: All greenhouse
attributed to anthropogenic global warming.
models show an increasing warming trend with
altitude in the tropics, peaking around 10 km at • The cumulative discharge of the world’s rivers
roughly twice the surface value. However, the remained statistically unchanged between 1951
temperature data from balloons give the opposite and 2000, a finding that contradicts computer
result: no increasing warming, but rather a slight forecasts that a warmer world would cause large
cooling with altitude. changes in global streamflow characteristics.
Droughts and floods have been found to be less
• Temperature records in Greenland and other
frequent and severe during the Current Warm
Arctic areas reveal that temperatures reached a
Period than during past periods when
maximum around 1930 and have decreased in
temperatures were even higher than they are
recent decades. Longer-term studies depict
today.
oscillatory cooling since the Climatic Optimum of
the mid-Holocene (~9000-5000 years BP), when • The results of several research studies argue
it was perhaps 2.5º C warmer than it is now. strongly against claims that CO2-induced global
warming would cause catastrophic disintegration
• The average temperature history of Antarctica
of the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. In fact,
provides no evidence of twentieth century
in the case of Antarctica, they suggest just the
warming. While the Antarctic peninsula shows
opposite—i.e., that CO2-induced global warming
recent warming, several research teams have
would tend to buffer the world against such an
documented a cooling trend for the interior of the
outcome.
continent since the 1970s.
• The mean rate of global sea level rise has not
accelerated over the recent past. The determinants
Chapter 4. Observations: Glaciers, Sea Ice, of sea level are poorly understood due to
Precipitation, and Sea Level considerable uncertainty associated with a
• Glaciers around the world are continuously number of basic parameters that are related to the
advancing and retreating, with a general pattern water balance of the world’s oceans and the
of retreat since the end of the Little Ice Age. meltwater contribution of Greenland and
There is no evidence of a increased rate of Antarctica. Until these uncertainties are
melting overall since CO2 levels rose above their satisfactorily resolved, we cannot be confident
pre-industrial levels, suggesting CO2 is not that short-lived changes in global temperature
responsible for glaciers melting. produce corresponding changes in sea level.

4
 Executive Summary

Chapter 5. Solar Variability and Climate Cycles rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations in driving
recent global warming.
• The IPCC claims the radiative forcing due to
changes in the solar output since 1750 is +0.12
Wm-2, an order of magnitude smaller than its Chapter 6. Observations: Extreme Weather
estimated net anthropogenic forcing of +1.66
Wm-2. A large body of research suggests that the • The IPCC predicts that a warmer planet will lead
IPCC has got it backwards, that it is the sun’s to more extreme weather, characterized by more
influence that is responsible for the lion’s share of frequent and severe episodes of drought, flooding,
climate change during the past century and cyclones, precipitation variability, storms, snow,
beyond. storm surges, temperature variability, and
wildfires. But has the last century – during which
• The total energy output of the sun changes by the IPCC claims the world experienced more
only 0.1 percent during the course of the solar rapid warming than any time in the past two
cycle, although larger changes may be possible millennia – experienced significant trends in any
over periods of centuries. On the other hand, the of these extreme weather events?
ultraviolet radiation from the sun can change by
several percent over the solar cycle – as indeed • Droughts have not become more extreme or
noted by observing changes in stratospheric erratic in response to global warming. Real-world
ozone. The largest changes, however, occur in the evidence from Africa, Asia, and other continents
intensity of the solar wind and interplanetary find no trend toward more frequent or more
magnetic field. severe droughts. In most cases, the worst
droughts in recorded meteorological history were
• Reconstructions of ancient climates reveal a close much milder than droughts that occurred
correlation between solar magnetic activity and periodically during much colder times.
solar irradiance (or brightness), on the one hand,
and temperatures on earth, on the other. Those • Floods were more frequent and more severe
correlations are much closer than the relationship during the Little Ice Age than they have been
between carbon dioxide and temperature. during the Current Warm Period. Flooding in
Asia, Europe, and North America has tended to
• Cosmic rays could provide the mechanism by be less frequent and less severe during the
which changes in solar activity affect climate. twentieth century.
During periods of greater solar magnetic activity,
greater shielding of the earth occurs, resulting in • The IPCC says “it is likely that future tropical
less cosmic rays penetrating to the lower cyclones (typhoons and hurricanes) will become
atmosphere, resulting in fewer cloud more intense, with larger peak wind speeds and
condensation nuclei being produced, resulting in more heavy precipitation associated with ongoing
fewer and less reflective low-level clouds increase of tropical sea surface temperatures.”
occurring, which leads to more solar radiation But despite the supposedly “unprecedented”
being absorbed by the surface of the earth, warming of the twentieth century, there has been
resulting (finally) in increasing near-surface air no increase in the intensity or frequency of
temperatures and global warming. tropical cyclones globally or in any of the specific
oceans.
• Strong correlations between solar variability and
precipitation, droughts, floods, and monsoons • A number of real-world observations demonstrate
have all been documented in locations around the that El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
world. Once again, these correlations are much conditions during the latter part of the twentieth
stronger than any relationship between these century were not unprecedented in terms of their
weather phenomena and CO2. frequency or magnitude. Long-term records
suggest that when the earth was significantly
• The role of solar activity in causing climate warmer than it is currently, ENSO events were
change is so complex that most theories of solar substantially reduced or perhaps even absent.
forcing must be considered to be as yet unproven.
But it would also be appropriate for climate • There is no support for the model-based
scientists to admit the same about the role of projection that precipitation in a warming world
becomes more variable and intense. In fact, some

5
 Climate Change Reconsidered

observational data suggest just the opposite, and macrophytes, and marine microalgae and
provide support for the proposition that macroalgae.
precipitation responds more to cyclical variations
• The amount of carbon plants gain per unit of
in solar activity.
water lost—or water-use efficiency—typically
• As the earth has warmed over the past 150 years, rises as the CO2 content of the air rises, greatly
during its recovery from the global chill of the increasing their ability to withstand drought. In
Little Ice Age, there has been no significant addition, the CO2-induced percentage increase in
increase in either the frequency or intensity of plant biomass production is often greater under
stormy weather. water-stressed conditions than it is when plants
are well watered.
• Between 1950 and 2002, during which time the
air’s CO2 concentration rose by 20 percent, there • Atmospheric CO2 enrichment helps ameliorate the
was no net change in either the mean onset date detrimental effects of several environmental
or duration of snow cover for the continent of stresses on plant growth and development,
North America. There appears to have been a including high soil salinity, high air temperature,
downward trend in blizzards. low light intensity and low levels of soil fertility.
Elevated levels of CO2 have additionally been
• Storm surges have not increased in either
demonstrated to reduce the severity of low
frequency or magnitude as CO2 concentrations in
temperature stress, oxidative stress, and the stress
the atmosphere have risen. In the majority of
of herbivory. In fact, the percentage growth
cases investigated, they have tended to decrease.
enhancement produced by an increase in the air’s
• Air temperature variability almost always CO2 concentration is often even greater under
decreases when mean air temperature rises, be it stressful and resource-limited conditions than it is
in cases of temperature change over tens of when growing conditions are ideal.
thousands of years or over mere decades, or even
• As the air’s CO2 content continues to rise, plants
between individual cooler and warmer years
will likely exhibit enhanced rates of
when different ENSO states are considered. The
photosynthesis and biomass production that will
claim that global warming will lead to more
not be diminished by any global warming that
extremes of climate and weather, including more
might occur concurrently. In fact, if the ambient
extremes of temperature itself, is not supported by
air temperature rises, the growth-promoting
real-world data.
effects of atmospheric CO2 enrichment will likely
• Although one can readily identify specific parts also rise, becoming more and more robust.
of the planet that have experienced both
• The ongoing rise in the air’s CO2 content likely
significant increases and decreases in land area
will not favor the growth of weedy species over
burned by wildfires over the last two to three
that of crops and native plants.
decades of the twentieth century, for the globe as
a whole there was no relationship between global • The growth of plants is generally not only
warming and total area burned over this period. enhanced by CO2-induced increases in net
photosynthesis during the light period of the day,
it is also enhanced by CO2-induced decreases in
Chapter 7. Biological Effects of Carbon Dioxide respiration during the dark period.
Enhancement
• The ongoing rise in the air’s CO2 content, as well
• A 300-ppm increase in the air’s CO2 content as any degree of warming that might possibly
typically raises the productivity of most accompany it, will not materially alter the rate of
herbaceous plants by about one-third; and this decomposition of the world’s soil organic matter
positive response occurs in plants that utilize all and will probably enhance biological carbon
three of the major biochemical pathways (C3, C4, sequestration. Continued increases in the air’s
CAM) of photosynthesis. For woody plants, the CO2 concentration and temperature will not result
response is even greater. The productivity in massive losses of carbon from earth’s
benefits of CO2 enrichment are also experienced peatlands. To the contrary, these environmental
by aquatic plants, including freshwater algae and

6
 Executive Summary

changes—if they persist—would likely work • Real-world data collected by the United Nations
together to enhance carbon capture. Environmental Program (UNEP) show the rate of
extinctions at the end of the twentieth century was
• Other biological effects of CO2 enhancement
the lowest since the sixteenth century—despite
include enhanced plant nitrogen-use efficiency,
150 years of rising world temperatures, growing
longer residence time of carbon in the soil, and
populations, and industrialization. Many, and
increased populations of earthworms and soil
probably most, of the world’s species benefited
nematodes.
from rising temperatures in the twentieth century.
• The aerial fertilization effect of the ongoing rise
• As long as the atmosphere’s CO2 concentration
in the air’s CO2 concentration (which greatly
rises in tandem with its temperature, most plants
enhances vegetative productivity) and its anti-
will not need to migrate toward cooler conditions,
transpiration effect (which enhances plant water-
as their physiology will change in ways that make
use efficiency and enables plants to grow in areas
them better adapted to warmer conditions. Plants
that were once too dry for them) are stimulating
will likely spread poleward in latitude and
plant growth across the globe in places that
upward in elevation at the cold-limited
previously were too dry or otherwise unfavorable
boundaries of their ranges, thanks to longer
for plant growth, leading to a significant greening
growing seasons and less frost, while their heat-
of the Earth.
limited boundaries will probably remain pretty
• Elevated CO2 reduces, and nearly always much as they are now or shift only slightly.
overrides, the negative effects of ozone pollution
• Land animals also tend to migrate poleward and
on plant photosynthesis, growth and yield. It also
upward, to areas where cold temperatures
reduces atmospheric concentrations of isoprene, a
prevented them from going in the past. They
highly reactive non-methane hydrocarbon that is
follow earth’s plants, while the heat-limited
emitted in copious quantities by vegetation and is
boundaries of their ranges are often little affected,
responsible for the production of vast amounts of
allowing them to also expand their ranges.
tropospheric ozone.
• The persistence of coral reefs through geologic
time—when temperatures were as much as 10°-
Chapter 8. Species Extinction 15°C warmer than at present, and atmospheric
• The IPCC claims “new evidence suggests that CO2 concentrations were two to seven times
climate-driven extinctions and range retractions higher than they are currently—provides
are already widespread” and the “projected substantive evidence that these marine entities
impacts on biodiversity are significant and of key can successfully adapt to a dramatically changing
relevance, since global losses in biodiversity are global environment.
irreversible (very high confidence).” These claims • The 18- to 59-cm warming-induced sea-level rise
are not supported by scientific research. that is predicted for the coming century by the
• The world’s species have proven to be IPCC falls well within the range (2 to 6 mm per
remarkably resilient to climate change. Most wild year) of typical coral vertical extension rates,
species are at least one million years old, which which exhibited a modal value of 7 to 8 mm per
means they have all been through hundreds of year during the Holocene and can be more than
climate cycles involving temperature changes on double that value in certain branching corals.
par with or greater than those experienced in the Rising sea levels should therefore present no
twentieth century. difficulties for coral reefs.

• The four known causes of extinctions are huge • The rising CO2 content of the atmosphere may
asteroids striking the planet, human hunting, induce very small changes in the well-buffered
human agriculture, and the introduction of alien ocean chemistry (pH) that could slightly reduce
species (e.g., lamprey eels in the Great Lakes and coral calcification rates; but potential positive
pigs in Hawaii). None of these causes are effects of hydrospheric CO2 enrichment may
connected with either global temperatures or more than compensate for this modest negative
atmospheric CO2 concentrations. phenomenon. Real-world observations indicate

7
 Climate Change Reconsidered

that elevated CO2 and elevated temperatures are yields during the past 150 years on the order of 70
having a positive effect on most corals. percent for wheat, 28 percent for cereals, 33
percent for fruits and melons, 62 percent for
• Polar bears have survived changes in climate that
legumes, 67 percent for root and tuber crops, and
exceed those that occurred during the twentieth
51 percent for vegetables.
century or are forecast by the IPCC’s computer
models. • The quality of plant food in the CO2-enriched
world of the future, in terms of its protein and
• Most populations of polar bears are growing, not
antioxidant (vitamin) contents, will be no lower
shrinking, and the biggest influence on polar bear
and probably will be higher than in the past.
populations is not temperature but hunting by
humans, which historically has taken a large toll • There is evidence that some medicinal substances
on polar bear populations. in plants will be present in significantly greater
concentrations, and certainly in greater absolute
• Forecasts of dwindling polar bear populations
amounts, than they are currently.
assume trends in sea ice and temperature that are
counterfactual, rely on unvalidated computer • The historical increase of the air’s CO2 content
climate models that are known to be unreliable, has probably helped lengthen human lifespans
and violate most of the principles of scientific since the advent of the Industrial Revolution, and
forecasting. its continued upward trend will likely provide
more of the same benefit.

Chapter 9. Human Health Effects

• Higher levels of CO2 in the air help to advance all
three parts of a strategy to resolve the tension
• The IPCC alleges that “climate change currently between the need to feed a growing population
contributes to the global burden of disease and and the desire to preserve natural ecosystems:
premature deaths” and will “increase malnutrition increasing crop yield per unit of land area,
and consequent disorders.” In fact, the increasing crop yield per unit of nutrients applied,
overwhelming weight of evidence shows that and increasing crop yield per unit of water used.
higher temperatures and rising CO2 levels have
played an indispensible role in making it possible • Biofuels for transportation (chiefly ethanol,
to feed a growing global population without biodiesel, and methanol) are being used in
encroaching on natural ecosystems. growing quantities in the belief that they provide
environmental benefits. In fact, those benefits are
• Global warming reduces the incidence of very dubious. By some measures, “the net effect
cardiovascular disease related to low of biofuels production ... is to increase CO2
temperatures and wintry weather by a much emissions for decades or centuries relative to the
greater degree than it increases the incidence of emissions caused by fossil fuel use.”
cardiovascular disease associated with high
temperatures and summer heat waves. • Biofuels compete with livestock growers and
food processors for corn, soybeans, and other
• Mortality due to respiratory diseases decrease as feedstocks, leading to higher food prices. Rising
temperatures rise and as temperature variability food prices in 2008 led to food riots in several
declines. developing countries. The production of biofuels
also consumes enormous quantities of water
• Claims that malaria and tick-borne diseases are
compared with the production of gasoline.
spreading or will spread across the globe as a
result of CO2-induced warming are not supported • There can be little doubt that ethanol mandates
in the scientific literature. and subsidies have made both food and energy
more, not less, expensive and therefore less
• Total heat-related mortality rates have been
available to a growing population. The extensive
shown to be lower in warmer climates and to be
damage to natural ecosystems already caused by
unaffected by rising temperatures during the
this poor policy decision, and the much greater
twentieth century.
destruction yet to come, are a high price to pay
• The historical increase in the air’s CO2 content for refusing to understand and utilize the true
has improved human nutrition by raising crop science of climate change.

8
1
Global Climate Models and Their Limitations

1. Global Climate Models and Their Limitations

1.1. Models and Forecasting
1.2 Radiation
1.3. Clouds
1.4. Precipitation

Introduction literature reveals numerous deficiencies and

shortcomings in today’s state-of-the-art models, some
Because the earth-ocean-atmosphere system is so vast of which deficiencies could even alter the sign of
and complex, it is impossible to conduct a small-scale projected climate change. In this chapter, we first ask
experiment that reveals how the world’s climate will if computer models are capable in principle of
change as the air’s greenhouse gas (GHG) producing reliable forecasts and then examine three
concentrations continue to rise. As a result, scientists areas of model inadequacies: radiation, clouds, and
try to forecast the effect of rising GHG by looking precipitation.
backwards at climate history to see how the climate
responded to previous “forcings” of a similar kind, or
by creating computer models that define a “virtual” References
earth-ocean-atmosphere system and run scenarios or
“story lines” based on assumptions about future IPCC. 2007-I. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science
events. Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change. Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z.
(IPCC) places great confidence in the ability of
Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L.
general circulation models (GCMs) to simulate future Miller. (Eds.) Cambridge University Press, Cambridge,
climate and attribute observed climate change to UK.
anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. It says
“climate models are based on well-established
physical principles and have been demonstrated to
reproduce observed features of recent climate … and 1.1. Models and Forecasting
past climate changes … There is considerable
confidence that Atmosphere-Ocean General J. Scott Armstrong, professor, The Wharton School,
Circulation Models (AOGCMs) provide credible University of Pennsylvania and a leading figure in the
quantitative estimates of future climate change, discipline of professional forecasting, has pointed out
particularly at continental and larger scales” (IPCC, that forecasting is a practice and discipline in its own
2007-I, p. 591). right, with its own institute (International Institute of
To be of any validity, GCMs must incorporate all Forecasters, founded in 1981), peer-reviewed journal
of the many physical, chemical, and biological (International Journal of Forecasting), and an
processes that influence climate in the real world, and extensive body of research that has been compiled
they must do so correctly. A review of the scientific into a set of scientific procedures, currently

9
 Climate Change Reconsidered

numbering 140, that must be used to make reliable statistics at the Organization for Economic
forecasts (Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Cooperation and Development (OECD), they say “the
Researchers and Practitioners, by J. Scott Armstrong, IPCC process is directed by non-scientists who have
Kluwer Academic Publishers, 2001). policy objectives and who believe that anthropogenic
According to Armstrong, when physicists, global warming is real and danger.” They conclude:
biologists, and other scientists who do not know the
rules of forecasting attempt to make climate The forecasts in the Report were not the outcome
predictions based on their training and expertise, their of scientific procedures. In effect, they were the
forecasts are no more reliable than those made by opinions of scientists transformed by mathematics
nonexperts, even when they are communicated and obscured by complex writing. Research on
forecasting has shown that experts’ predictions are
through complex computer models (Armstrong,
not useful in situations involving uncertainty and
2001). In other words, forecasts by scientists, even complexity. We have been unable to identify any
large numbers of very distinguished scientists, are not scientific forecasts of global warming. Claims that
necessarily scientific forecasts. In support of his the Earth will get warmer have no more credence
position, Armstrong and a colleague cite research by than saying that it will get colder.
Philip E. Tetlock (2005), a psychologist and professor
of organizational behavior at the University of Scientists working in fields characterized by
California, Berkeley, who “recruited 288 people complexity and uncertainty are apt to confuse the
whose professions included ‘commenting or offering output of models—which are nothing more than a
advice on political and economic trends.’ He asked statement of how the modeler believes a part of the
them to forecast the probability that various situations world works—with real-world trends and forecasts
would or would not occur, picking areas (geographic (Bryson, 1993). Computer climate modelers certainly
and substantive) within and outside their areas of fall into this trap, and they have been severely
expertise. By 2003, he had accumulated more than criticized for failing to notice that their models fail to
82,000 forecasts. The experts barely if at all replicate real-world phenomena by many scientists,
outperformed non-experts and neither group did well including Balling (2005), Christy (2005), Essex and
against simple rules” (Green and Armstrong, 2007). McKitrick (2007), Frauenfeld (2005), Michaels
The failure of expert opinion to lead to reliable (2000, 2005, 2009), Pilkey and Pilkey-Jarvis (2007),
forecasts has been confirmed in scores of empirical Posmentier and Soon (2005), and Spencer (2008).
studies (Armstrong, 2006; Craig et al., 2002; Cerf and Canadian science writer Lawrence Solomon
Navasky, 1998; Ascher, 1978) and illustrated in (2008) interviewed many of the world’s leading
historical examples of incorrect forecasts made by scientists active in scientific fields relevant to climate
leading experts (Cerf and Navasky, 1998). change and asked them for their views on the
In 2007, Armstrong and Kesten C. Green of reliability of the computer models used by the IPCC
Monash University conducted a “forecasting audit” of to detect and forecast global warming. Their answers
the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (Green and showed a high level of skepticism:
Armstrong, 2007). The authors’ search of the
contribution of Working Group I to the IPCC “found • Prof. Freeman Dyson, professor of physics at the
no references … to the primary sources of Institute for Advanced Study at Princeton
information on forecasting methods” and “the University, one of the world’s most eminent
forecasting procedures that were described [in physicists, said the models used to justify global
sufficient detail to be evaluated] violated 72 warming alarmism are “full of fudge factors” and
principles. Many of the violations were, by “do not begin to describe the real world.”
themselves, critical.”
One principle of scientific forecasting Green and • Dr. Zbigniew Jaworowski, chairman of the
Armstrong say the IPCC violated is “Principle 1.3 Scientific Council of the Central Laboratory for
Make sure forecasts are independent of politics.” The Radiological Protection in Warsaw and former
two authors write, “this principle refers to keeping the chair of the United Nations Scientific Committee
forecasting process separate from the planning on the Effects of Atomic Radiation, a world-
process. The term ‘politics’ is used in the broad sense renowned expert on the use of ancient ice cores
of the exercise of power.” Citing David Henderson for climate research, said the U.N. “based its
(Henderson, 2007), a former head of economics and global-warming hypothesis on arbitrary

10
 Global Climate Models and Their Limitations

assumptions and these assumptions, it is now Kevin Trenberth, a lead author along with Philip
clear, are false.” D. Jones of chapter 3 of the Working Group I
contribution to the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report,
• Dr. Richard Lindzen, a professor of meteorology replied to some of these scathing criticisms on the
at M.I.T. and member of the National Research blog of the science journal Nature. He argued that
Council Board on Atmospheric Sciences and “the IPCC does not make forecasts” but “instead
Climate, said the IPCC is “trumpeting proffers ‘what if’ projections of future climate that
catastrophes that couldn’t happen even if the correspond to certain emissions scenarios,” and then
models were right.” hopes these “projections” will “guide policy and
decision makers” (Trenberth, 2007). He says “there
• Prof. Hendrik Tennekes, director of research at are no such predictions [in the IPCC reports] although
the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, the projections given by the Intergovernmental Panel
said “there exists no sound theoretical framework on Climate Change (IPCC) are often treated as such.
for climate predictability studies” used for global The distinction is important.”
warming forecasts. This defense is hardly satisfactory. As Green and
Armstrong point out, “the word ‘forecast’ and its
• Dr. Richard Tol, principal researcher at the derivatives occurred 37 times, and ‘predict’ and its
Institute for Environmental Studies at Vrije derivatives occurred 90 times in the body of Chapter
Universiteit and adjunct professor at the Center 8” of the Working Group I report, and a survey of
for Integrated Study of the Human Dimensions of climate scientists conducted by those same authors
Global Change at Carnegie Mellon University, found “most of our respondents (29 of whom were
said the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report is IPCC authors or reviewers) nominated the IPCC
“preposterous ... alarmist and incompetent.” report as the most credible source of forecasts (not
‘scenarios’ or ‘projections’) of global average
• Dr. Antonino Zichichi, emeritus professor of temperature.” They conclude that “the IPCC does
physics at the University of Bologna, former provide forecasts.” We agree, and add that those
president of the European Physical Society, and forecasts are unscientific and therefore likely to be
one of the world’s foremost physicists, said wrong.
global warming models are “incoherent and Additional information on this topic, including
invalid.” reviews of climate model inadequacies not discussed
here, can be found at http://www.co2science.org/
Princeton’s Freeman Dyson has written subject/m/subject_m.php under the heading Models
elsewhere, “I have studied the climate models and I of Climate.
know what they can do. The models solve the
equations of fluid dynamics, and they do a very good
job of describing the fluid motions of the atmosphere References
and the oceans. They do a very poor job of describing
the clouds, the dust, the chemistry, and the biology of Armstrong, J.S. 2001. Principles of Forecasting – A
Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners. Kluwer
fields and farms and forests. They do not begin to
Academic Publishers, Norwell, MA.
describe the real world that we live in” (Dyson,
2007). Armstrong, J.S. 2006. Findings from evidence-based
Many of the scientists cited above observe that forecasting: Methods for reducing forecast error.
computer models can be “tweaked” to reconstruct International Journal of Forecasting 22: 583-598.
climate histories after the fact, as the IPCC points out Ascher, W. 1978. Forecasting: An Appraisal for Policy
in the passage quoted at the beginning of this chapter. Makers and Planners. Johns Hopkins University Press.
But this provides no assurance that the new model Baltimore, MD.
will do a better job forecasting future climates, and
indeed points to how unreliable the models are. Balling, R.C. 2005. Observational surface temperature
Individual climate models often have widely differing records versus model predictions. In Michaels, P.J. (Ed.)
assumptions about basic climate mechanisms but are Shattered Consensus: The True State of Global Warming.
then “tweaked” to produce similar forecasts. This is Rowman & Littlefield. Lanham, MD. 50-71.
nothing like how real scientific forecasting is done.

11
 Climate Change Reconsidered

Bryson, R.A. 1993. Environment, environmentalists, and who are too fearful to do so. Richard Vigilante Books.
global change: A skeptic’s evaluation. New Literary Minneapolis, MN.
History: 24: 783-795.
Spencer, R. 2008. Climate Confusion: How Global
Cerf, C. and Navasky, V. 1998. The Experts Speak. Johns Warming Hysteria Leads to Bad Science, Pandering
Hopkins University Press. Baltimore, MD. Politicians and Misguided Policies that Hurt the Poor.
Encounter Books. New York, NY.
Christy, J. 2005. Temperature changes in the bulk
atmosphere: beyond the IPCC. In Michaels, P.J. (Ed.) Tetlock, P.E. 2005. Expert Political Judgment—How Good
Shattered Consensus: The True State of Global Warming. Is It? How Can We Know? Princeton University Press,
Rowman & Littlefield. Lanham, MD. 72-105. Princeton, NJ.
Craig, P.P., Gadgil, A., and Koomey, J.G. 2002. What can Trenberth, K.E. 2007. Global warming and forecasts of
history teach us? A retrospective examination of long-term climate change. Nature blog. http://blogs.nature.com/
energy forecasts for the United States. Annual Review of climatefeedback/2007/07/global_warming_and_forecasts_o
Energy and the Environment 27: 83-118. .html. Last accessed May 6, 2009.
Dyson, F. 2007. Heretical thoughts about science and
society. Edge: The Third Culture. August.
1.2. Radiation
Essex, C. and McKitrick, R. 2002. Taken by Storm. The
Troubled Science, Policy and Politics of Global Warming. One problem facing GCMs is how to accurately
Key Porter Books. Toronto, Canada.
simulate the physics of earth’s radiative energy
Frauenfeld, O.W. 2005. Predictive skill of the El Niño- balance. Of this task, Harries (2000) says “progress is
Southern Oscillation and related atmospheric excellent, on-going research is fascinating, but we
teleconnections. In Michaels, P.J. (Ed.) Shattered have still a great deal to understand about the physics
Consensus: The True State of Global Warming. Rowman & of climate.”
Littlefield. Lanham, MD. 149-182. Harries says “we must exercise great caution over
Green, K.C. and Armstrong, J.S. 2007. Global warming: the true depth of our understanding, and our ability to
forecasts by scientists versus scientific forecasts. Energy forecast future climate trends.” As an example, he
Environ. 18: 997–1021. states that our knowledge of high cirrus clouds is very
poor, noting that “we could easily have uncertainties
Henderson, D. 2007. Governments and climate change of many tens of Wm-2 in our description of the
issues: The case for rethinking. World Economics 8: 183-
radiative effect of such clouds, and how these
228.
properties may change under climate forcing.” This
Michaels, P.J. 2009. Climate of Extremes: Global Warming state of affairs is disconcerting in light of the fact that
Science They Don't Want You to Know. Cato Institute. the radiative effect of a doubling of the air’s CO2
Washington, DC. content is in the lower single-digit range of Wm-2,
Michaels, P.J. 2005. Meltdown: The Predictable Distortion and, to quote Harries, “uncertainties as large as, or
of Global Warming by Scientists, Politicians and the larger than, the doubled CO2 forcing could easily
Media. Cato Institute, Washington, DC. exist in our modeling of future climate trends, due to
uncertainties in the feedback processes.” Because of
Michaels, P.J. 2000. Satanic Gases: Clearing the Air About the vast complexity of the subject, Harries says “even
Global Warming. Cato Institute. Washington, DC. if [our] understanding were perfect, our ability to
Pilkey, O.H. and Pilkey-Jarvis, L. 2007. Useless describe the system sufficiently well in even the
Arithmetic. Columbia University Press, New York. largest computer models is a problem.”
A related problem is illustrated by the work of
Posmentier, E.S. and Soon, W. 2005. Limitations of Zender (1999), who characterized the spectral,
computer predictions of the effects of carbon dioxide on
vertical, regional and seasonal atmospheric heating
global temperature. In Michaels, P.J. (Ed.) Shattered
Consensus: The True State of Global Warming. Rowman & caused by the oxygen collision pairs O2 . O2 and O2 .
Littlefield. Lanham, MD. 241-281. N2, which had earlier been discovered to absorb a
small but significant fraction of the globally incident
Solomon, L. 2008. The Deniers: The World Renowned solar radiation. In addition, water vapor demers (a
Scientists Who Stood Up Against Global Warming double molecule of H2O) shows strong absorption
Hysteria, Political Persecution, and Fraud**And those bands in the near-infrared of the solar spectrum.
Zender revealed that these molecular collisions lead

12
 Global Climate Models and Their Limitations

to the absorption of about 1 Wm-2 of solar radiation, that according to the IPCC sets other more powerful
globally and annually averaged. This discovery, in forces in motion that produce the bulk of the ultimate
Zender’s words, “alters the long-standing view that warming. There appears to be a double standard
H2O, O3, O2, CO2 and NO2 are the only significant within the climate modeling community that may best
gaseous solar absorbers in earth’s atmosphere,” and be described as an inherent reluctance to deal even-
he suggests that the phenomenon “should therefore be handedly with different aspects of climate change.
included in ... large-scale atmospheric models used to When multiplier effects suit their purposes, they use
simulate climate and climate change.” them; but when they don’t suit their purposes, they
In another revealing study, Wild (1999) compared don’t use them.
the observed amount of solar radiation absorbed in Ghan et al. (2001) warn that “present-day
the atmosphere over equatorial Africa with what was radiative forcing by anthropogenic greenhouse gases
predicted by three GCMs and found the model is estimated to be 2.1 to 2.8 Wm-2; the direct forcing
predictions were much too small. Indeed, regional and by anthropogenic aerosols is estimated to be -0.3 to -
seasonal model underestimation biases were as high 1.5 Wm-2, while the indirect forcing by anthropogenic
as 30 Wm-2, primarily because the models failed to aerosols is estimated to be 0 to -1.5 Wm-2,” so that
properly account for spatial and temporal variations in “estimates of the total global mean present-day
atmospheric aerosol concentrations. In addition, Wild anthropogenic forcing range from 3 Wm-2 to
found the models likely underestimated the amount of -1 Wm-2,” which implies a climate change somewhere
solar radiation absorbed by water vapor and clouds. between a modest warming and a slight cooling. They
Similar large model underestimations were conclude that “the great uncertainty in the radiative
discovered by Wild and Ohmura (1999), who forcing must be reduced if the observed climate
analyzed a comprehensive observational dataset record is to be reconciled with model predictions and
consisting of solar radiation fluxes measured at 720 if estimates of future climate change are to be useful
sites across the earth’s surface and corresponding top- in formulating emission policies.”
of-the-atmosphere locations to assess the true amount Pursuit of this goal, Ghan et al. say, requires
of solar radiation absorbed within the atmosphere. achieving “profound reductions in the uncertainties of
These results were compared with estimates of solar direct and indirect forcing by anthropogenic
radiation absorption derived from four GCMs and, aerosols,” which is what they set out to do in their
again, it was shown that “GCM atmospheres are analysis of the situation, which consisted of “a
generally too transparent for solar radiation,” as they combination of process studies designed to improve
produce a rather substantial mean error close to 20 understanding of the key processes involved in the
percent below actual observations. forcing, closure experiments designed to evaluate that
Another solar-related deficiency of GCMs is their understanding, and integrated models that treat all of
failure to properly account for solar-driven variations the necessary processes together and estimate the
in earth-atmosphere processes that operate over a forcing.” At the conclusion of this laborious set of
range of timescales extending from the 11-year solar operations, Ghan et al. came up with some numbers
cycle to century- and millennial-scale cycles (see that considerably reduce the range of uncertainty in
Section 4.11, Solar Influence on Climate). Although the “total global mean present-day anthropogenic
the absolute solar flux variations associated with these forcing,” but that still implied a set of climate changes
phenomena are rather small, there are a number of stretching from a small cooling to a modest warming.
“multiplier effects” that may significantly amplify They also provided a long list of other things that
their impacts. must be done in order to obtain a more definitive
According to Chambers et al. (1999), most of the result, after which they acknowledged that even this
many nonlinear responses to solar activity variability list “is hardly complete.” In fact, they conclude, “one
are inadequately represented in the global climate could easily add the usual list of uncertainties in the
models used by the IPCC to predict future greenhouse representation of clouds, etc.” Consequently, the
gas-induced global warming, while at the same time bottom line, in their words, is that “much remains to
other amplifier effects are used to model past be done before the estimates are reliable enough to
glacial/interglacial cycles and even the hypothesized base energy policy decisions upon.”
CO2-induced warming of the future, where CO2 is not Also studying the aerosol-induced radiative
the major cause of the predicted temperature increase forcing of climate were Vogelmann et al. (2003), who
but rather an initial perturber of the climate system report that “mineral aerosols have complex, highly

13
 Climate Change Reconsidered

varied optical properties that, for equal loadings, can produced by what Chen et al. determined to be “a
cause differences in the surface IR flux between 7 and decadal-time-scale strengthening of the tropical
25 Wm-2 (Sokolik et al., 1998).” They say “only a Hadley and Walker circulations.” Another helping-
few large-scale climate models currently consider hand was likely provided by the past quarter-
aerosol IR effects (e.g., Tegen et al., 1996; Jacobson, century’s slowdown in the meridional overturning
2001) despite their potentially large forcing.” Because circulation of the upper 100 to 400 meters of the
of these facts, and in an attempt to persuade climate tropical Pacific Ocean (McPhaden and Zhang, 2002),
modelers to rectify the situation, Vogelmann et al. which circulation slowdown also promotes tropical
used high-resolution spectra to calculate the surface sea surface warming by reducing the rate-of-supply of
IR radiative forcing created by aerosols encountered relatively colder water to the region of equatorial
in the outflow of air from northeastern Asia, based on upwelling.
measurements made by the Marine-Atmospheric These observations provide several new
Emitted Radiance Interferometer aboard the NOAA phenomena for the models to replicate as a test of
Ship Ronald H. Brown during the Aerosol their ability to properly represent the real world. In
Characterization Experiment-Asia. In doing so, they the words of McPhaden and Zhang, the time-varying
determined, in their words, that “daytime surface IR meridional overturning circulation of the upper
forcings are often a few Wm-2 and can reach almost Pacific Ocean provides “an important dynamical
10 Wm-2 for large aerosol loadings,” which values constraint for model studies that attempt to simulate
they say “are comparable to or larger than the 1 to 2 recent observed decadal changes in the Pacific.”
Wm-2 change in the globally averaged surface IR In an eye-opening application of this principle,
forcing caused by greenhouse gas increases since pre- Wielicki et al. (2002) tested the ability of four state-
industrial times.” In a massive understatement of fact, of-the-art climate models and one weather
the researchers concluded that their results “highlight assimilation model to reproduce the observed decadal
the importance of aerosol IR forcing which should be changes in top-of-the-atmosphere thermal and solar
included in climate model simulations.” If a forcing radiative energy fluxes that occurred over the past
of this magnitude is not included in current state-of- two decades. No significant decadal variability was
the-art climate models, what other major forcings are exhibited by any of the models; and they all failed to
they ignoring? reproduce even the cyclical seasonal change in
Two papers published one year earlier and tropical albedo. The administrators of the test kindly
appearing in the same issue of Science (Chen et al., concluded that “the missing variability in the models
2002; Wielicki et al., 2002) revealed what Hartmann highlights the critical need to improve cloud modeling
(2002) called a pair of “tropical surprises.” The first in the tropics so that prediction of tropical climate on
of the seminal discoveries was the common finding of interannual and decadal time scales can be
both groups of researchers that the amount of thermal improved.” Hartmann was considerably more candid
radiation emitted to space at the top of the tropical in his scoring of the test, saying flatly that the results
atmosphere increased by about 4 Wm-2 between the indicated “the models are deficient.” Expanding on
1980s and the 1990s. The second was that the amount this assessment, he noted that “if the energy budget
of reflected sunlight decreased by 1 to 2 Wm-2 over can vary substantially in the absence of obvious
the same period, with the net result that more total forcing,” as it did over the past two decades, “then the
radiant energy exited the tropics in the latter decade. climate of earth has modes of variability that are not
In addition, the measured thermal radiative energy yet fully understood and cannot yet be accurately
loss at the top of the tropical atmosphere was of the represented in climate models.”
same magnitude as the thermal radiative energy gain Also concentrating on the tropics, Bellon et al.
that is generally predicted to result from an (2003) note that “observed tropical sea-surface
instantaneous doubling of the air’s CO2 content. Yet temperatures (SSTs) exhibit a maximum around
as Hartmann notes, “only very small changes in 30°C,” and that “this maximum appears to be robust
average tropical surface temperature were observed on various timescales, from intraseasonal to
during this time.” How did this occur? millennial.” Hence, they say, “identifying the
The change in solar radiation reception was stabilizing feedback(s) that help(s) maintain this
driven by reductions in cloud cover, which allowed threshold is essential in order to understand how the
more solar radiation to reach the surface of the earth’s tropical climate reacts to an external perturbation,”
tropical region and warm it. These changes were which knowledge is needed for understanding how

14
 Global Climate Models and Their Limitations

the global climate reacts to perturbations such as balance is treated in contemporary general circulation
those produced by solar variability and the ongoing models of the atmosphere, as well as numerous other
rise in the air’s CO2 content. This contention is further telling inadequacies stemming from the non-treatment
substantiated by the study of Pierrehumbert (1995), of pertinent phenomena that are nowhere to be found
which “clearly demonstrates,” in the words of Bellon in the models. IPCC-inspired predictions of
et al., “that the tropical climate is not determined catastrophic climatic changes due to continued
locally, but globally.” Also, they note that anthropogenic CO2 emissions are beyond what can be
Pierrehumbert’s work demonstrates that interactions soundly supported by the current state of the climate
between moist and dry regions are an essential part of modeling enterprise.
tropical climate stability, which points to the Additional information on this topic, including
“adaptive infrared iris” concept of Lindzen et al. reviews of newer publications as they become
(2001), which is reported in Section 1.2. available, can be found at http://www.co2science.org/
Noting that previous box models of tropical subject/m/inadeqradiation.php.
climate have shown it to be rather sensitive to the
relative areas of moist and dry regions of the tropics,
Bellon et al. analyzed various feedbacks associated References
with this sensitivity in a four-box model of the
tropical climate “to show how they modulate the Bellon, G., Le Treut, H. and Ghil, M. 2003. Large-scale
response of the tropical temperature to a radiative and evaporation-wind feedbacks in a box model of the
perturbation.” In addition, they investigated the tropical climate. Geophysical Research Letters 30:
10.1029/2003GL017895.
influence of the model’s surface-wind
parameterization in an attempt to shed further light on Chambers, F.M., Ogle, M.I. and Blackford, J.J. 1999.
the nature of the underlying feedbacks that help Palaeoenvironmental evidence for solar forcing of
define the global climate system that is responsible Holocene climate: linkages to solar science. Progress in
for the tropical climate observations of constrained Physical Geography 23: 181-204.
maximum sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Chen, J., Carlson, B.E. and Del Genio, A.D. 2002.
Bellon et al.’s work, as they describe it, “suggests Evidence for strengthening of the tropical general
the presence of an important and as-yet-unexplored circulation in the 1990s. Science 295: 838-841.
feedback in earth’s tropical climate, that could
contribute to maintain the ‘lid’ on tropical SSTs.” Ghan, S.J., Easter, R.C., Chapman, E.G., Abdul-Razzak,
They say the demonstrated “dependence of the H., Zhang, Y., Leung, L.R., Laulainen, N.S., Saylor, R.D.
and Zaveri, R.A. 2001. A physically based estimate of
surface wind on the large-scale circulation has an
radiative forcing by anthropogenic sulfate aerosol. Journal
important effect on the sensitivity of the tropical of Geophysical Research 106: 5279-5293.
system,” specifically stating that “this dependence
reduces significantly the SST sensitivity to radiative Harries, J.E. 2000. Physics of the earth’s radiative energy
perturbations by enhancing the evaporation balance. Contemporary Physics 41: 309-322.
feedback,” which injects more heat into the Hartmann, D.L. 2002. Tropical surprises. Science 295: 811-
atmosphere and allows the atmospheric circulation to 812.
export more energy to the subtropical free
troposphere, where it can be radiated to space by Jacobson, M.Z. 2001. Global direct radiative forcing due to
water vapor. multicomponent anthropogenic and natural aerosols.
This literature review makes clear that the case is Journal of Geophysical Research 106: 1551-1568.
not closed on either the source or the significance of Lindzen, R.S., Chou, M.-D. and Hou, A.Y. 2001. Does the
the maximum “allowable” SSTs of tropical regions. earth have an adaptive infrared iris? Bulletin of the
Neither, consequently, is the case closed on the American Meteorological Society 82: 417-432.
degree to which the planet may warm in response to
McPhaden, M.J. and Zhang, D. 2002. Slowdown of the
continued increases in the atmospheric concentrations
meridional overturning circulation in the upper Pacific
of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, in stark Ocean. Nature 415: 603-608.
contrast to what is suggested by the climate models
promoted by the IPCC. Pierrehumbert, R.T. 1995. Thermostats, radiator fins, and
In conclusion, there are a number of major the local runaway greenhouse. Journal of the Atmospheric
inadequacies in the ways the earth’s radiative energy Sciences 52: 1784-1806.

15
 Climate Change Reconsidered

Sokolik, I.N., Toon, O.B. and Bergstrom, R.W. 1998. increments of four and comparing the results to
Modeling the radiative characteristics of airborne mineral observed values. This effort revealed that cloud
aerosols at infrared wavelengths. Journal of Geophysical fraction varied by approximately 10 percent over the
Research 103: 8813-8826. range of resolutions tested, which corresponded to
Tegen, I., Lacis, A.A. and Fung, I. 1996. The influence on about 20 percent of the observed cloud cover fraction.
climate forcing of mineral aerosols from disturbed soils. Similarly, outgoing longwave radiation varied by 10
Nature 380: 419-422. to 20 Wm-2 as model vertical resolution was varied,
amounting to approximately 5 to 10 percent of
Vogelmann, A.M., Flatau, P.J., Szczodrak, M., Markowicz,
observed values, while incoming solar radiation
K.M. and Minnett, P.J. 2003. Observations of large aerosol
infrared forcing at the surface. Geophysical Research experienced similar significant variations across the
Letters 30: 10.1029/2002GL016829. range of resolutions tested. The model results did not
converge, even at a resolution of 60 layers.
Wielicki, B.A., Wong, T., Allan, R.P., Slingo, A., Kiehl, In an analysis of the multiple roles played by
J.T., Soden, B.J., Gordon, C.T., Miller, A.J., Yang, S.-K., cloud microphysical processes in determining tropical
Randall, D.A., Robertson, F., Susskind, J. and Jacobowitz, climate, Grabowski (2000) found much the same
H. 2002. Evidence for large decadal variability in the
thing, noting there were serious problems related to
tropical mean radiative energy budget. Science 295: 841-
844. the degree to which computer models failed to
correctly incorporate cloud microphysics. These
Wild, M. 1999. Discrepancies between model-calculated observations led him to conclude that “it is unlikely
and observed shortwave atmospheric absorption in areas that traditional convection parameterizations can be
with high aerosol loadings. Journal of Geophysical used to address this fundamental question in an
Research 104: 27,361-27,371. effective way.” He also became convinced that
Wild, M. and Ohmura, A. 1999. The role of clouds and the “classical convection parameterizations do not
cloud-free atmosphere in the problem of underestimated include realistic elements of cloud physics and they
absorption of solar radiation in GCM atmospheres. Physics represent interactions among cloud physics, radiative
and Chemistry of the Earth 24B: 261-268. processes, and surface processes within a very limited
scope.” Consequently, he says, “model results must
Zender, C.S. 1999. Global climatology of abundance and
solar absorption of oxygen collision complexes. Journal of be treated as qualitative rather than quantitative.”
Geophysical Research 104: 24,471-24,484. Reaching rather similar conclusions were Gordon
et al. (2000), who determined that many GCMs of the
late 1990s tended to under-predict the presence of
subtropical marine stratocumulus clouds and failed to
1.3. Clouds simulate the seasonal cycle of clouds. These
deficiencies are extremely important because these
Correctly parameterizing the influence of clouds on particular clouds exert a major cooling influence on
climate is an elusive goal that the creators of the surface temperatures of the sea below them. In the
atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) have situation investigated by Gordon and his colleagues,
yet to achieve. One reason for their lack of success the removal of the low clouds, as occurred in the
has to do with model resolution on vertical and normal application of their model, led to sea surface
horizontal space scales. Lack of adequate resolution temperature increases on the order of 5.5°C.
forces modelers to parameterize the ensemble large- Further condemnation of turn-of-the-century
scale effects of processes that occur on smaller scales model treatments of clouds came from Harries
than their models are capable of handling. This is (2000), previously cited in Section 1.1, who wrote
particularly true of physical processes such as cloud that our knowledge of high cirrus clouds is very poor
formation and cloud-radiation interactions. Several and that “we could easily have uncertainties of many
studies suggest that older model parameterizations did tens of Wm-2 in our description of the radiative effect
not succeed in this regard (Groisman et al., 2000), of such clouds, and how these properties may change
and subsequent studies suggest they still are not under climate forcing.”
succeeding. Moving into the twenty-first century, Lindzen et
Lane et al. (2000) evaluated the sensitivities of al. (2001) analyzed cloud cover and sea surface
the cloud-radiation parameterizations utilized in temperature (SST) data over a large portion of the
contemporary GCMs to changes in vertical model Pacific Ocean, finding a strong inverse relationship
resolution, varying the latter from 16 to 60 layers in

16
 Global Climate Models and Their Limitations

between upper-level cloud area and mean SST, such Although there has thus been some convergence
that the area of cirrus cloud coverage normalized by a in the two opposing views of the subject, the debate
measure of the area of cumulus coverage decreased over the reality and/or magnitude of the adaptive
by about 22 percent for each degree C increase in infrared iris effect continues. It is amazing that some
cloudy region SST. Essentially, as the researchers political leaders proclaim the debate over global
described it, “the cloudy-moist region appears to act warming is “over” when some of the meteorological
as an infrared adaptive iris that opens up and closes community’s best minds continue to clash over the
down the regions free of upper-level clouds, which nature and magnitude of a phenomenon that could
more effectively permit infrared cooling, in such a entirely offset the effects of anthropogenic CO2
manner as to resist changes in tropical surface emissions.
temperature.” The sensitivity of this negative Grassl (2000), in a review of the then-current
feedback was calculated by Lindzen et al. to be status of the climate-modeling enterprise two years
substantial. In fact, they estimated it would “more before the infrared iris effect debate emerged, noted
than cancel all the positive feedbacks in the more that changes in many climate-related phenomena,
sensitive current climate models” that were being including cloud optical and precipitation properties
used to predict the consequences of projected caused by changes in the spectrum of cloud
increases in atmospheric CO2 concentration. condensation nuclei, were insufficiently well known
Lindzen’s challenge to what had become climatic to provide useful insights into future conditions. His
political correctness could not go uncontested, and advice in the light of this knowledge gap was that “we
Hartmann and Michelsen (2002) quickly claimed the must continuously evaluate and improve the GCMs
correlation noted by Lindzen et al. resulted from we use,” although he was forced to acknowledge that
variations in subtropical clouds that are not physically contemporary climate model results were already
connected to deep convection near the equator, and being “used by many decision-makers, including
that it was thus “unreasonable to interpret these governments.”
changes as evidence that deep tropical convective Although some may think that what we currently
anvils contract in response to SST increases.” Fu et know about the subject is sufficient for predictive
al. (2002) also chipped away at the adaptive infrared purposes, a host of questions posed by Grassl—for
iris concept, arguing that “the contribution of tropical which we still lack definitive answers—demonstrates
high clouds to the feedback process would be small that this assumption is erroneous. As but a single
since the radiative forcing over the tropical high cloud example, Charlson et al. (1987) described a negative
region is near zero and not strongly positive,” while feedback process that links biologically-produced
also claiming to show that water vapor and low cloud dimethyl sulfide (DMS) in the oceans with climate.
effects were overestimated by Lindzen et al. by at (See Section 2.3 for a more complete discussion.) The
least 60 percent and 33 percent, respectively. As a basic tenet of this hypothesis is that the global
result, they obtained a feedback factor in the range of radiation balance is significantly influenced by the
-0.15 to -0.51, compared to Lindzen et al.’s much albedo of marine stratus clouds, and that the albedo of
larger negative feedback factor of -0.45 to -1.03. these clouds is a function of cloud droplet
In a contemporaneously published reply to this concentration, which is dependent upon the
critique, Chou et al. (2002) stated that Fu et al.’s availability of condensation nuclei that have their
approach of specifying longwave emission and cloud origin in the flux of DMS from the world’s oceans to
albedos “appears to be inappropriate for studying the the atmosphere.
iris effect,” and that since “thin cirrus are widespread Acknowledging that the roles played by DMS
in the tropics and ... low boundary clouds are oxidation products within the context described above
optically thick, the cloud albedo calculated by [Fu et are indeed “diverse and complex” and in many
al.] is too large for cirrus clouds and too small for instances “not well understood,” Ayers and Gillett
boundary layer clouds,” so that “the near-zero (2000) summarized empirical evidence supporting
contrast in cloud albedos derived by [Fu et al.] has the Charlson et al.’s hypothesis that was derived from
effect of underestimating the iris effect.” In the end, data collected at Cape Grim, Tasmania, and from
however, Chou et al. agreed that Lindzen et al. “may reports of other pertinent studies in the peer-reviewed
indeed have overestimated the iris effect somewhat, scientific literature. According to their findings, the
though hardly by as much as that suggested by [Fu et “major links in the feedback chain proposed by
al.].” Charlson et al. (1987) have a sound physical basis,”

17
 Climate Change Reconsidered

and there is “compelling observational evidence to “the representation of cloud processes in global
suggest that DMS and its atmospheric products atmospheric models has been recognized for decades
participate significantly in processes of climate as the source of much of the uncertainty surrounding
regulation and reactive atmospheric chemistry in the predictions of climate variability.” They report,
remote marine boundary layer of the Southern however, that “despite the best efforts of [the climate
Hemisphere.” modeling] community ... the problem remains largely
The empirical evidence analyzed by Ayers and unsolved.” What is more, they say, “at the current rate
Gillett highlights an important suite of negative of progress, cloud parameterization deficiencies will
feedback processes that act in opposition to model- continue to plague us for many more decades into the
predicted CO2-induced global warming over the future.”
world’s oceans; and these processes are not fully “Clouds are complicated,” Randall et al. declare,
incorporated into even the very best of the current as they begin to describe what they call the “appalling
crop of climate models, nor are analogous phenomena complexity” of the cloud parameterization situation.
that occur over land included in them, such as those They state that “our understanding of the interactions
discussed by Idso (1990). (See also, in this regard, of the hot towers [of cumulus convection] with the
Section 2.7 of this report.) global circulation is still in a fairly primitive state,”
Further to this point, O’Dowd et al. (2004) and not knowing all that much about what goes up,
measured size-resolved physical and chemical it’s not surprising we also don’t know much about
properties of aerosols found in northeast Atlantic what comes down, as they report that “downdrafts are
marine air arriving at the Mace Head Atmospheric either not parameterized or crudely parameterized in
Research station on the west coast of Ireland during large-scale models.”
phytoplanktonic blooms at various times of the year. With respect to stratiform clouds, the situation is
In doing so, they found that in the winter, when no better, as their parameterizations are described by
biological activity was at its lowest, the organic Randall et al. as “very rough caricatures of reality.”
fraction of the submicrometer aerosol mass was about As for interactions between convective and stratiform
15 percent. During the spring through autumn, clouds, during the 1970s and ‘80s, Randall et al.
however, when biological activity was high, they report that “cumulus parameterizations were
found that “the organic fraction dominates and extensively tested against observations without even
contributes 63 percent to the submicrometer aerosol accounting for the effects of the attendant stratiform
mass (about 45 percent is water-insoluble and about clouds.” Even at the time of their study, they had to
18 percent water-soluble).” Based on these findings, report that the concept of detrainment was “somewhat
they performed model simulations that indicated that murky” and the conditions that trigger detrainment
the marine-derived organic matter “can enhance the were “imperfectly understood.” “At this time,” as
cloud droplet concentration by 15 percent to more they put it, “no existing GCM includes a satisfactory
than 100 percent and is therefore an important parameterization of the effects of mesoscale cloud
component of the aerosol-cloud-climate feedback circulations.”
system involving marine biota.” Randall et al. additionally say that “the large-
As for the significance of their findings, O’Dowd scale effects of microphysics, turbulence, and
et al. state that their data “completely change the radiation should be parameterized as closely coupled
picture of what influences marine cloud condensation processes acting in concert,” but they report that only
nuclei given that water-soluble organic carbon, water- a few GCMs have even attempted to do so. Why?
insoluble organic carbon and surface-active Because, as they continue, “the cloud
properties, all of which influence the cloud parameterization problem is overwhelmingly
condensation nuclei activation potential, are typically complicated,” and “cloud parameterization
not parameterized in current climate models,” or as developers,” as they call them, are still “struggling to
they say in another place in their paper, “an important identify the most important processes on the basis of
source of organic matter from the ocean is omitted woefully incomplete observations.” To drive this
from current climate-modeling predictions and should point home, they say “there is little question why the
be taken into account.” cloud parameterization problem is taking a long time
Another perspective on the cloud-climate to solve: It is very, very hard.” In fact, the four
conundrum is provided by Randall et al. (2003), who scientists conclude that “a sober assessment suggests
state at the outset of their review of the subject that that with current approaches the cloud

18
 Global Climate Models and Their Limitations

parameterization problem will not be ‘solved’ in any [our italics] result in models that are capable of
of our lifetimes.” simulating our climate system with increasing
To show that the basis for this conclusion is realism.”
robust, and cannot be said to rest on the less-than- In an effort to assess the status of state-of-the-art
enthusiastic remarks of a handful of exasperated climate models in simulating cloud-related processes,
climate modelers, we report the results of additional Zhang et al. (2005) compared basic cloud
studies of the subject that were published subsequent climatologies derived from 10 atmospheric GCMs
to the analysis of Randall et al., and which therefore with satellite measurements obtained from the
could have readily refuted their assessment of the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project
situation if they felt that such was appropriate. (ISCCP) and the Clouds and Earth’s Radiant Energy
Siebesma et al. (2004) report that “simulations System (CERES) program. ISCCP data were
with nine large-scale models [were] carried out for available from 1983 to 2001, while data from the
June/July/August 1998 and the quality of the results CERES program were available for the winter months
[was] assessed along a cross-section in the subtropical of 2001 and 2002 and for the summer months of 2000
and tropical North Pacific ranging from (235°E, and 2001. The purpose of their analysis was two-fold:
35°N) to (187.5°E, 1°S),” in order to “document the (1) to assess the current status of climate models in
performance quality of state-of-the-art GCMs in simulating clouds so that future progress can be
modeling the first-order characteristics of subtropical measured more objectively, and (2) to reveal serious
and tropical cloud systems.” The main conclusions of deficiencies in the models so as to improve them.
this study, according to Siebesma et al., were that “(1) The work of 20 climate modelers involved in this
almost all models strongly underpredicted both cloud exercise reveals a huge list of major model
cover and cloud amount in the stratocumulus regions imperfections. First, Zhang et al. report a four-fold
while (2) the situation is opposite in the trade-wind difference in high clouds among the models, and that
region and the tropics where cloud cover and cloud the majority of the models simulated only 30 to 40
amount are overpredicted by most models.” In fact, percent of the observed middle clouds, with some
they report that “these deficiencies result in an models simulating less than a quarter of observed
overprediction of the downwelling surface short-wave middle clouds. For low clouds, they report that half
radiation of typically 60 Wm-2 in the stratocumulus the models underestimated them, such that the grand
regimes and a similar underprediction of 60 Wm-2 in mean of low clouds from all models was only 70 to
the trade-wind regions and in the intertropical 80 percent of what was observed. Furthermore, when
convergence zone (ITCZ),” which discrepancies are stratified in optical thickness ranges, the majority of
to be compared with a radiative forcing of only a the models simulated optically thick clouds more than
couple of Wm-2 for a 300 ppm increase in the twice as frequently as was found to be the case in the
atmosphere’s CO2 concentration. In addition, they satellite observations, while the grand mean of all
state that “similar biases for the short-wave radiation models simulated about 80 percent of optically
were found at the top of the atmosphere, while intermediate clouds and 60 percent of optically thin
discrepancies in the outgoing long-wave radiation are clouds. And in the case of individual cloud types, the
most pronounced in the ITCZ.” group of researchers reports that “differences of
The 17 scientists who wrote Siebesma et al., seasonal amplitudes among the models and satellite
hailing from nine different countries, also found “the measurements can reach several hundred percent.” As
representation of clouds in general-circulation models a result of these and other observations, Zhang et al.
remains one of the most important as yet unresolved conclude that “much more needs to be done to fully
[our italics] issues in atmospheric modeling.” This is understand the physical causes of model cloud biases
partially due, they continue, “to the overwhelming presented here and to improve the models.”
variety of clouds observed in the atmosphere, but L’Ecuyer and Stephens (2007) used multi-sensor
even more so due to the large number of physical observations of visible, infrared, and microwave
processes governing cloud formation and evolution as radiance obtained from the Tropical Rainfall
well as the great complexity of their interactions.” Measuring Mission satellite for the period from
Hence, they conclude that through repeated critical January 1998 through December 1999, in order to
evaluations of the type they conducted, “the scientific evaluate the sensitivity of atmospheric heating—and
community will be forced to develop further the factors that modify it—to changes in east-west sea
physically sound parameterizations that ultimately surface temperature gradients associated with the

19
 Climate Change Reconsidered

strong 1998 El Niño event in the tropical Pacific, as deficiencies.” To help stimulate progress in these
expressed by the simulations of nine general areas, the nine scientists compared the cloud and
circulation models of the atmosphere that were precipitation properties observed from the Clouds and
utilized in the IPCC’s most recent Fourth Assessment the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) and
Report. This protocol, in their words, “provides a Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM)
natural example of a short-term climate change instruments against simulations obtained from the
scenario in which clouds, precipitation, and regional three-dimensional Goddard Cumulus Ensemble
energy budgets in the east and west Pacific are (GCE) model during the South China Sea Monsoon
observed to respond to the eastward migration of Experiment (SCSMEX) field campaign of 18 May-18
warm sea surface temperatures.” June 1998.
Results indicated that “a majority of the models The authors report that: (1) “the GCE rainfall
examined do not reproduce the apparent westward spectrum includes a greater proportion of heavy rains
transport of energy in the equatorial Pacific during the than PR (Precipitation Radar) or TMI (TRMM
1998 El Niño event.” They also found that “the Microwave Imager) observations”; (2) “the GCE
intermodel variability in the responses of model produces excessive condensed water loading in
precipitation, total heating, and vertical motion is the column, especially the amount of graupel as
often larger than the intrinsic ENSO signal itself, indicated by both TMI and PR observations”; (3) “the
implying an inherent lack of predictive capability in model also cannot simulate the bright band and the
the ensemble with regard to the response of the mean sharp decrease of radar reflectivity above the freezing
zonal atmospheric circulation in the tropical Pacific to level in stratiform rain as seen from PR”; (4) “the
ENSO.” In addition, they reported that “many models model has much higher domain-averaged OLR
also misrepresent the radiative impacts of clouds in (outgoing longwave radiation) due to smaller total
both regions [the east and west Pacific], implying cloud fraction”; (5) “the model has a more skewed
errors in total cloudiness, cloud thickness, and the distribution of OLR and effective cloud top than
relative frequency of occurrence of high and low CERES observations, indicating that the model’s
clouds.” As a result of these much-less-than-adequate cloud field is insufficient in area extent”; (6) “the
findings, the two researchers from Colorado State GCE is ... not very efficient in stratiform rain
University’s Department of Atmospheric Science conditions because of the large amounts of slowly
conclude that “deficiencies remain in the falling snow and graupel that are simulated”; and
representation of relationships between radiation, finally, and in summation, (7) “large differences
clouds, and precipitation in current climate models,” between model and observations exist in the rain
and they say that these deficiencies “cannot be spectrum and the vertical hydrometeor profiles that
ignored when interpreting their predictions of future contribute to the associated cloud field.”
climate.” Even more recently, a study by Spencer and
In another recent paper, this one published in the Braswell (2008) observed that “our understanding of
Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, Zhou et al. how sensitive the climate system is to radiative
(2007) state that “clouds and precipitation play key perturbations has been limited by large uncertainties
roles in linking the earth’s energy cycle and water regarding how clouds and other elements of the
cycles,” noting that “the sensitivity of deep climate system feed back to surface temperature
convective cloud systems and their associated change (e.g., Webster and Stephens, 1984; Cess et al.,
precipitation efficiency in response to climate change 1990; Senior and Mitchell, 1993; Stephens, 2005;
are key factors in predicting the future climate.” They Soden and Held, 2006; Spencer et al., 2007).” The
also report that cloud resolving models or CRMs two scientists from the Earth System Science Center
“have become one of the primary tools to develop the at the University of Alabama in Huntsville, Alabama
physical parameterizations of moist and other then point out that computer models typically assume
subgrid-scale processes in global circulation and that if the causes of internal sources of variability (X
climate models,” and that CRMs could someday be terms) are uncorrelated to surface temperature
used in place of traditional cloud parameterizations in changes, then they will not affect the accuracy of
such models. regressions used to estimate the relationship between
In this regard, the authors note that “CRMs still radiative flux changes and surface temperature (T).
need parameterizations on scales smaller than their But “while it is true that the processes that cause the
grid resolutions and have many known and unknown X terms are, by [Forster and Gregory (2006)]

20
 Global Climate Models and Their Limitations

definition, uncorrelated to T, the response of T to will become possible to use such global CSRMs to
those forcings cannot be uncorrelated to T – for the perform century-scale climate simulations, relevant to
simple reason that it is a radiative forcing that causes such problems as anthropogenic climate change.”
changes in T [italics in the original].” They ask “to A few more decades, however, is a little long to
what degree could nonfeedback sources of radiative wait to address an issue that nations of the world are
flux variability contaminate feedback estimates?” confronting now. Hence, Randall et al. say that an
Spencer and Braswell use a “very simple time- approach that could be used very soon (to possibly
dependent model of temperature deviations away determine whether or not there even is a problem) is
from an equilibrium state” to estimate the effects of to “run a CSRM as a ‘superparameterization’ inside a
“daily random fluctuations in an unknown GCM,” which configuration they call a “super-
nonfeedback radiative source term N, such as those GCM.” Not wanting to be accused of impeding
one might expect from stochastic variations in low scientific progress, we say “go for it,” but only with
cloud cover.” Repeated runs of the model found the the proviso that the IPCC should admit it is truly
diagnosed feedback departed from the true, expected needed in order to obtain a definitive answer to the
feedback value of the radiative forcing, with the question of CO2-induced “anthropogenic climate
difference increasing as the amount of nonfeedback change.” In other words, the scientific debate over the
radiative flux noise was increased. “It is significant,” causes and processes of global warming is still
the authors write, “that all model errors for runs ongoing and there is no scientific case for
consistent with satellite-observed variability are in the governments to regulate greenhouse gas emissions in
direction of positive feedback, raising the possibility an expensive and likely futile attempt to alter the
that current observational estimates of cloud feedback course of future climate.
are biased in the positive direction.” In other words, We believe, with Randall et al., that our
as the authors say in their abstract, “current knowledge of many aspects of earth’s climate system
observational diagnoses of cloud feedback – and is sadly deficient. Climate models currently do not
possibly other feedbacks – could be significantly provide a reliable scientific basis for implementing
biased in the positive direction.” programs designed to restrict anthropogenic CO2
In light of these findings, it is clear that CRMs emissions. The cloud parameterization problem by
still have a long way to go before they are ready to itself is so complex that no one can validly claim that
properly assess the roles of various types of clouds humanity’s continued utilization of fossil-fuel energy
and forms of precipitation in the future evolution of will result in massive counter-productive climatic
earth’s climate in response to variations in changes. There is no justification for that conclusion
anthropogenic and background forcings. This in reliable theoretical models.
evaluation is not meant to denigrate the CRMs, it is Additional information on this topic, including
merely done to indicate that the climate modeling reviews of newer publications as they become
enterprise is not yet at the stage where faith should be available, can be found at http://www.co2science.org/
placed in what it currently suggests about earth’s subject/m/inadeqclouds.php.
climatic response to the ongoing rise in the air’s CO2
content.
The hope of the climate-modeling community of References
tomorrow resides, according to Randall et al., in
something called “cloud system-resolving models” or Ayers, G.P. and Gillett, R.W. 2000. DMS and its oxidation
CSRMs, which can be compared with single-column products in the remote marine atmosphere: implications for
models or SCMs that can be “surgically extracted climate and atmospheric chemistry. Journal of Sea
Research 43: 275-286.
from their host GCMs.” These advanced models, as
they describe them, “have resolutions fine enough to Cess, R.D. et al. 1990. Intercomparison and interpretation
represent individual cloud elements, and space-time of climate feedback processes in 19 atmospheric general
domains large enough to encompass many clouds circulation models. Journal of Geophysical Research 95:
over many cloud lifetimes.” Of course, these 16601-16615.
improvements mean that “the computational cost of Charlson, R.J., Lovelock, J.E., Andrea, M.O. and Warren,
running a CSRM is hundreds or thousands of times S.G. 1987. Oceanic phytoplankton, atmospheric sulfur,
greater than that of running an SCM.” Nevertheless, cloud albedo and climate. Nature 326: 655-661.
in a few more decades, according to Randall et al., “it

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Chou, M.-D., Lindzen, R.S. and Hou, A.Y. 2002. Reply to: deadlock. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
“Tropical cirrus and water vapor: an effective Earth 84: 1547-1564.
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Physics 2: 99-101. Senior, C.A. and Mitchell, J.F.B. 1993. CO2 and climate:
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Forster, P.M., and Taylor, K.E. 2006. Climate forcings and 6: 393-418.
climate sensitivities diagnosed from coupled climate model
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Spencer, R.W. and Braswell, W.D. 2008.Potential biases in
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Mircea, M., Decesari, S., Fuzzi, S., Yoon, Y.J. and Putaud,
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22
 Global Climate Models and Their Limitations

hydrologic cycle will intensify as the world warms, warming that was unprecedented over the past two
leading to an increase in the frequency and intensity millennia.
of extreme precipitation events. In an early review of Woodhouse found “the twentieth century is
the subject, Walsh and Pittock (1998) reported “there notable for several periods that lack extreme years.”
is some evidence from climate model studies that, in a Specifically, she determined that “the twentieth
warmer climate, rainfall events will be more intense,” century is notable for several periods that contain few
and that “there is considerable evidence that the or no extreme years, for both low and high SWE
frequency of extreme rainfall events may increase in extremes,” and she reports that “the twentieth century
the tropics.” Upon further study, however, they were also contains the lowest percent of extreme low SWE
forced to conclude that “because of the insufficient years.” These results are in direct contradiction of
resolution of climate models and their generally crude what GCMs typically predict should occur in
representation of sub-grid scale and convective response to global warming. Their failure in this
processes, little confidence can be placed in any regard is especially damning because it occurred
definite predictions of such effects.” during a period of global warming that is said to have
Two years later, Lebel et al. (2000) compared been the most significant of the past 20 centuries.
rainfall simulations produced by a GCM with real- Two years later, and as a result of the fact that the
world observations from West Africa for the period 2004 summer monsoon season of India experienced a
1960-1990. Their analysis revealed that the model 13 percent precipitation deficit that was not predicted
output was affected by a number of temporal and by any of the empirical or dynamical models
spatial biases that led to significant differences regularly used in making rainfall forecasts, Gadgil et
between observed and modeled data. The simulated al. (2005) performed a historical analysis of the
rainfall totals, for example, were significantly greater models forecast skill over the period 1932-2004.
than what was typically observed, exceeding real- Despite model advancements and an ever-improving
world values by 25 percent during the dry season and understanding of monsoon variability, they found the
75 percent during the rainy season. In addition, the models’ skill in forecasting the Indian monsoon’s
seasonal cycle of precipitation was not well characteristics had not improved since the very first
simulated, as the researchers found that the simulated versions of the models were applied to the task some
rainy season began too early and that the increase in seven decades earlier. The empirical models Gadgil et
precipitation was not rapid enough. Shortcomings al. evaluated generated large differences between
were also evident in the GCM’s inability to accurately monsoon rainfall measurements and model
simulate convective rainfall events, as it typically predictions. In addition, the models often failed to
predicted too much precipitation. Furthermore, it was correctly predict even the sign of the precipitation
found that “interannual variability [was] seriously anomaly, frequently predicting excess rainfall when
disturbed in the GCM as compared to what it [was] in drought occurred and drought when excess rainfall
the observations.” As for why the GCM performed so was received.
poorly in these several respects, Lebel et al. gave two The dynamical models fared even worse. In
main reasons: parameterization of rainfall processes comparing observed monsoon rainfall totals with
in the GCM was much too simple, and spatial simulated values obtained from 20 state-of-the-art
resolution was much too coarse. GCMs and a supposedly superior coupled
Three years later, Woodhouse (2003) generated a atmosphere-ocean model, Gadgil et al. reported that
tree-ring-based history of snow water equivalent not a single one of those many models was able “to
(SWE) characteristic of the first day of April for each simulate correctly the interannual variation of the
year of the period 1569-1999 for the drainage basin of summer monsoon rainfall over the Indian region.”
the Gunnison River of western Colorado, USA. Then, And as with the empirical models, the dynamical
because “an understanding of the long-term models also frequently failed to correctly capture
characteristics of snowpack variability is useful for even the sign of the observed rainfall anomalies. In
guiding expectations for future variability,” as she addition, the researchers report that Brankovic and
phrased it, she analyzed the reconstructed SWE data Molteni (2004) attempted to model the Indian
in such a way as to determine if there was anything monsoon with a much higher-resolution GCM, but its
unusual about the SWE record of the twentieth output also proved to be “not realistic.”
century, which the IPCC claims experienced a Lau et al. (2006) considered the Sahel drought of
the 1970s-’90s to provide “an ideal test bed for

23
 Climate Change Reconsidered

evaluating the capability of CGCMs [coupled general Appropriately combining the results of these two
circulation models] in simulating long-term drought, endeavors, they derived a real-world increase in
and the veracity of the models’ representation of precipitation on the order of 7 percent per °C of
coupled atmosphere-ocean-land processes and their surface global warming, which is somewhere between
interactions.” They chose to “explore the roles of sea 2.3 and 7.0 times larger than what is predicted by
surface temperature coupling and land surface state-of-the-art climate models.
processes in producing the Sahel drought in CGCMs How was this huge discrepancy to be resolved?
that participated in the twentieth-century coupled Wentz et al. concluded that the only way to bring the
climate simulations of the Intergovernmental Panel on two results into harmony was for there to have been a
Climate Change [IPCC] Assessment Report 4,” in 19-year decline in global wind speeds. But when
which the 19 CGCMs “are driven by combinations of looking at the past 19 years of SSM/I wind retrievals,
realistic prescribed external forcing, including they found just the opposite, an increase in global
anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gases and wind speeds. In quantitative terms, the two results
sulfate aerosols, long-term variation in solar radiation, were about as opposite as they could possibly be, as
and volcanic eruptions.” they report that “when averaged over the tropics from
In performing this analysis, the climate scientists 30°S to 30°N, the winds increased by 0.04 m s-1 (0.6
found, in their words, that “only eight models produce percent) decade-1, and over all oceans the increase
a reasonable Sahel drought signal, seven models was 0.08 m s-1 (1.0 percent) decade-1,” while global
produce excessive rainfall over [the] Sahel during the coupled ocean-atmosphere models or GCMs, in their
observed drought period, and four models show no words, “predict that the 1987-to-2006 warming
significant deviation from normal.” In addition, they should have been accompanied by a decrease in
report that “even the model with the highest skill for winds on the order of 0.8 percent decade-1.”
the Sahel drought could only simulate the increasing In discussing these results, Wentz et al. say “the
trend of severe drought events but not the magnitude, reason for the discrepancy between the observational
nor the beginning time and duration of the events.” data and the GCMs is not clear.” They also observe
All 19 of the CGCMs employed in the IPCC’s Fourth that this dramatic difference between the real world of
Assessment Report, in other words, failed to nature and the virtual world of climate modeling “has
adequately simulate the basic characteristics of “one enormous impact” and the questions raised by the
of the most pronounced signals of climate change” of discrepancy “are far from being settled.”
the past century—as defined by its start date, severity Allan and Soden (2007) quantified trends in
and duration.” precipitation within ascending and descending
Wentz et al. (2007), in a study published in branches of the planet’s tropical circulation and
Science, noted that the Coupled Model compared their results with simulations of the present
Intercomparison Project, as well as various climate day and projections of future changes provided by up
modeling analyses, predicted an increase in to 16 state-of-the-art climate models. The
precipitation on the order of 1 to 3 percent per °C of precipitation data for this analysis came from the
surface global warming. They decided to see what Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) of
had happened in the real world in this regard over the Adler et al. (2003) and the Climate Prediction Center
prior 19 years (1987-2006) of supposedly Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) data of Xie
unprecedented global warming, when data from the and Arkin (1998) for the period 1979-2006, while for
Global Historical Climatology Network and satellite the period 1987-2006 they came from the monthly
measurements of the lower troposphere indicated mean intercalibrated Version 6 Special Sensor
there had been a global temperature rise on the order Microwave Imager (SSM/I) precipitation data
of 0.20°C per decade. described by Wentz et al. (2007).
Using satellite observations obtained from the The researchers reported “an emerging signal of
Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I), the four rising precipitation trends in the ascending regions
Remote Sensing Systems scientists derived and decreasing trends in the descending regions are
precipitation trends for the world’s oceans over this detected in the observational datasets,” but that “these
period, and using data obtained from the Global trends are substantially larger in magnitude than
Precipitation Climatology Project that were acquired present-day simulations and projections into the 21st
from both satellite and rain gauge measurements, they century,” especially in the case of the descending
derived precipitation trends for earth’s continents. regions. More specifically, for the tropics “the GPCP

24
 Global Climate Models and Their Limitations

trend is about 2-3 times larger than the model flux], leading to significant cold SST (sea surface
ensemble mean trend, consistent with previous temperature) bias in much of the tropical oceans.”
findings (Wentz et al., 2007) and also supported by The authors further note that “most of the models
the analysis of Yu and Weller (2007),” who also simulate insufficient latitudinal asymmetry in
additionally contend that “observed increases of precipitation and SST over the eastern Pacific and
evaporation over the ocean are substantially greater Atlantic Oceans,” and further, that “the AMIP runs
than those simulated by climate models.” What is also produce excessive precipitation over much of the
more, Allan and Soden note that “observed Tropics including the equatorial Pacific, which also
precipitation changes over land also appear larger leads to overly strong trade winds, excessive LHF,
than model simulations over the 20th century (Zhang and insufficient SWF,” which suggests that “the
et al., 2007).” excessive tropical precipitation is an intrinsic error of
Noting that the difference between the models the atmospheric models.” And if that is not enough,
and real-world measurements “has important Lin adds that “over the eastern Pacific stratus region,
implications for future predictions of climate change,” most of the models produce insufficient stratus-SST
Allan and Soden say “the discrepancy cannot be feedback associated with insufficient sensitivity of
explained by changes in the reanalysis fields used to stratus cloud amount to SST.”
subsample the observations but instead must relate to With the solutions to all of these long-standing
errors in the satellite data or in the model problems continuing to remain “elusive,” and with
parameterizations.” This same dilemma was also Lin suggesting that the sought-for solutions are in fact
faced by Wentz et al. (2007); and they too stated that prerequisites for “good simulations/predictions” of
the resolution of the issue “has enormous impact” and future climate, there is significant reason to conclude
likewise concluded that the questions raised by the that current state-of-the-art CGCM predictions of
discrepancy “are far from being settled.” CO2-induced global warming should not be
Lin (2007) states that “a good simulation of considered reliable.
tropical mean climate by the climate models is a In conclusion, in spite of the billions of dollars
prerequisite for their good simulations/predictions of spent by the United States alone on developing and
tropical variabilities and global teleconnections,” but improving climate models, the models’ ability to
“unfortunately, the tropical mean climate has not been correctly simulate even the largest and most
well simulated by the coupled general circulation regionally-important of earth’s atmospheric
models (CGCMs) used for climate predictions and phenomena—the tropical Indian monsoon—hasn’t
projections,” noting that “most of the CGCMs improved at all. The scientific literature is filled with
produce a double-intertropical convergence zone studies documenting the inability of even the most
(ITCZ) pattern,” and acknowledging that “a synthetic advanced GCMs to accurately model radiation,
view of the double-ITCZ problem is still elusive.” clouds, and precipitation. Failure to model any one of
To explore the nature of this problem in greater these elements would be grounds for rejecting claims
depth, and in hope of making some progress in that the IPCC provides the evidence needed to justify
resolving it, Lin analyzed tropical mean climate regulation of anthropogenic greenhouse gas
simulations of the 20-year period 1979-99 provided emissions.
by 22 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report CGCMs, Additional information on this topic, including
together with concurrent Atmospheric Model reviews of newer publications as they become
Intercomparison Project (AMIP) runs from 12 of available, can be found at http://www.co2science.org/
them. This work revealed, in Lin’s words, that “most subject/p/precipmodelinadeq.php.
of the current state-of-the-art CGCMs have some
degree of the double-ITCZ problem, which is
characterized by excessive precipitation over much of References
the Tropics (e.g., Northern Hemisphere ITCZ,
Southern Hemisphere SPCZ [South Pacific Adler, R.F., Huffman, G.J., Chang, A., Ferraro, R., Xie, P.,
Convergence Zone], Maritime Continent, and Janowiak, J., Rudolf, B., Schneider, U. Curtis, S., Bolvin,
equatorial Indian Ocean), and often associated with D., Gruber, A., Susskind, J. Arkin, P. and Nelkin, E. 2003.
The version-2 Global Precipitation Climatology Project
insufficient precipitation over the equatorial Pacific,”
(GPCP) monthly precipitation analysis (1979-present).
as well as “overly strong trade winds, excessive LHF Journal of Hydrometeorology 4: 1147-1167.
[latent heat flux], and insufficient SWF [shortwave

25
 Climate Change Reconsidered

Allan, R.P. and Soden, B.J. 2007. Large discrepancy Walsh, K. and Pittock, A.B. 1998. Potential changes in
between observed and simulated precipitation trends in the tropical storms, hurricanes, and extreme rainfall events as a
ascending and descending branches of the tropical result of climate change. Climatic Change 39: 199-213.
circulation. Geophysical Research Letters 34:
10.1029/2007GL031460. Wentz, F.J., Ricciardulli, L., Hilburn, K. and Mears, C.
2007. How much more rain will global warming bring?
Brankovic, C. and Molteni, F. 2004. Seasonal climate and Science 317: 233-235.
variability of the ECMWF ERA-40 model. Climate
Dynamics 22: 139-155. Woodhouse, C.A. 2003. A 431-yr reconstruction of
western Colorado snowpack from tree rings. Journal of
Gadgil, S., Rajeevan, M. and Nanjundiah, R. 2005. Climate 16: 1551-1561.
Monsoon prediction—Why yet another failure? Current
Science 88: 1389-1400. Xie, P. and Arkin, P.A. 1998. Global monthly precipitation
estimates from satellite-observed outgoing longwave
Lau, K.M., Shen, S.S.P., Kim, K.-M. and Wang, H. 2006. radiation. Journal of Climate 11: 137-164.
A multimodel study of the twentieth-century simulations of
Sahel drought from the 1970s to 1990s. Journal of Yu, L. and Weller, R.A. 2007. Objectively analyzed air-sea
Geophysical Research 111: 10.1029/2005JD006281. heat fluxes for the global ice-free oceans (1981-2005).
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 88: 527-
Lebel, T., Delclaux, F., Le Barbé, L. and Polcher, J. 2000. 539.
From GCM scales to hydrological scales: rainfall
variability in West Africa. Stochastic Environmental Zhang, X., Zwiers, F.W., Hegerl, G.C., Lambert, F.H.,
Research and Risk Assessment 14: 275-295. Gillett, N.P., Solomon, S., Stott, P.A. and Nozawa, T.
2007. Detection of human influence on twentieth-century
Lin, J.-L. 2007. The double-ITCZ problem in IPCC AR4 precipitation trends. Nature 448: 461-465.
coupled GCMs: Ocean-atmosphere feedback analysis.
Journal of Climate 20: 4497-4525.

26
2
Feedback Factors and Radiative Forcing

2. Feedback Factors and Radiative Forcing

2.1. Clouds
2.2. Carbonyl Sulfide
2.3. Diffuse Light
2.4. Iodocompounds
2.5. Nitrous Oxide
2.6. Methane
2.7. Dimethyl Sulfide
2.8. Aerosols

Introduction References

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate IPCC. 2007-I. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science
Change (IPCC), “the combined radiative forcing due Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth
to increases in carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change. Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z.
oxide is +2.30 [+2.07 to +2.35] W m-2, and its rate of
Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L.
increase during the industrial era is very likely to have Miller. (Eds.) Cambridge University Press, Cambridge,
been unprecedented in more than 10,000 years [italics UK.
in the original]” (IPCC, 2007-I, p. 3). The IPCC
calculates that this sensitivity of earth’s climate
system to greenhouse gases (GHG) means that if CO2 2.1. Clouds
concentrations were to double, the rise in global
average surface temperature “is likely to be in the Based on data obtained from the Tropical Ocean
range 2°C to 4.5°C with a best estimate of about 3°C, Global Atmosphere—Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere
and is very unlikely to be less than 1.5°C [italics in the Response Experiment, Sud et al. (1999) demonstrated
original]” (Ibid., p. 12). that deep convection in the tropics acts as a
Many scientific studies suggest this model- thermostat to keep sea surface temperature (SST)
derived sensitivity is too large and feedbacks in the oscillating between approximately 28° and 30°C.
climate system reduce it to values that are an order of Their analysis suggests that as SSTs reach 28°-29°C,
magnitude smaller. This chapter reviews those the cloud-base airmass is charged with the moist
feedbacks most often mentioned in the scientific static energy needed for clouds to reach the upper
literature, some of which have the ability to totally troposphere, at which point the cloud cover reduces
offset the radiative forcing expected from the rise in the amount of solar radiation received at the surface
atmospheric CO2. of the sea, while cool and dry downdrafts promote
Additional information on this topic, including ocean surface cooling by increasing sensible and
reviews of feedback factors not discussed here, can be latent heat fluxes there. This “thermostat-like
found at http://www.co2science.org/subject/f/subject control,” as Sud et al. describe it, tends “to ventilate
_f.php under the heading Feedback Factors. the tropical ocean efficiently and help contain the
SST between 28°-30°C.” The phenomenon would

27
 Climate Change Reconsidered

also be expected to prevent SSTs from rising any Rosenfeld (2000) used satellite data obtained
higher in response to enhanced CO2-induced radiative from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission to look
forcing. for terrestrial analogues of the cloud trails that form in
Lindzen et al. (2001) used upper-level cloudiness the wakes of ships at sea as a consequence of their
data obtained from the Japanese Geostationary emissions of particulates that redistribute cloud-water
Meteorological Satellite and SST data obtained from into larger numbers of smaller droplets that do not
the National Centers for Environmental Prediction to rain out of the atmosphere as readily as they would in
derive a strong inverse relationship between upper- the absence of this phenomenon. Visualizations
level cloud area and the mean SST of cloudy regions produced from the mission data clearly revealed the
of the eastern part of the western Pacific (30°S-30°N; existence of enhanced cloud trails downwind of urban
130°E-170°W), such that the area of cirrus cloud and industrial complexes in Turkey, Canada, and
coverage normalized by a measure of the area of Australia, to which Rosenfeld gave the name
cumulus coverage decreases about 22 percent per pollution tracks in view of their similarity to ship
degree C increase in the SST of the cloudy region. In tracks. Rosenfeld also demonstrated that the clouds
describing this phenomenon, Lindzen et al. say “the comprising these pollution tracks were composed of
cloudy-moist region appears to act as an infrared droplets of reduced size that did indeed suppress
adaptive iris that opens up and closes down the precipitation by inhibiting further coalescence and ice
regions free of upper-level clouds, which more precipitation formation. As Toon (2000) noted in a
effectively permit infrared cooling, in such a manner commentary on this study, these smaller droplets will
as to resist changes in tropical surface temperature.” not “rain out” as quickly and will therefore last longer
The findings of Lindzen et al. were subsequently and cover more of the earth, both of which effects
criticized by Hartmann and Michelsen (2002) and Fu tend to cool the globe.
et al. (2002), and then Fu et al. were rebutted by In summation, as the earth warms, the atmosphere
Chou et al. (2002), an exchange that is summarized in has a tendency to become more cloudy, which exerts
Section 1.2 of this report. The debate over the infrared a natural brake upon the rising temperature. Many of
adaptive iris still rages in the scientific community, man’s aerosol-producing activities tend to do the
but Lindzen and his colleagues are not the only same thing. Hence, there appear to be a number of
scientists who believe the cooling effect of clouds has cloud-mediated processes that help the planet “keep
been underestimated. its cool.”
Croke et al. (1999) used land-based observations Additional information on this topic, including
of cloud cover for three regions of the United States reviews of newer publications as they become
(coastal southwest, coastal northeast, and southern available, can be found at http://www.co2science.org/
plains) to demonstrate that, over the period 1900- subject/f/feedbackcloud.php.
1987, cloud cover had a high correlation with global
air temperature, with mean cloud cover rising from an
initial value of 35 percent to a final value of 47 References
percent as the mean global air temperature rose by
0.5°C. Chou, M.-D., Lindzen, R.S. and Hou, A.Y. 2002. Reply to:
Herman et al. (2001) used Total Ozone Mapping “Tropical cirrus and water vapor: an effective Earth
Spectrometer 380-nm reflectivity data to determine infrared iris feedback?” Atmospheric Chemistry and
changes in radiation reflected back to space over the Physics 2: 99-101.
period 1979 to 1992, finding that “when the 11.3-year Croke, M.S., Cess, R.D. and Hameed, S. 1999. Regional
solar-cycle and ENSO effects are removed from the cloud cover change associated with global climate change:
time series, the zonally averaged annual linear-fit Case studies for three regions of the United States. Journal
trends show that there have been increases in of Climate 12: 2128-2134.
reflectivity (cloudiness) poleward of 40°N and 30°S,
Fu, Q., Baker, M. and Hartmann, D.L. 2002. Tropical
with some smaller but significant changes occurring cirrus and water vapor: an effective Earth infrared iris
in the equatorial and lower middle latitudes.” The feedback? Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 2: 31-37.
overall long-term effect was an increase in radiation
reflected back to space of 2.8 Wm-2 per decade, which Hartmann, D.L. and Michelsen, M.L. 2002. No evidence
represents a large cloud-induced cooling influence. for IRIS. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
83: 249-254.

28
 Feedback Factors and Radiative Forcing

Herman, J.R., Larko, D., Celarier, E. and Ziemke, J. 2001. planet’s surface (1) in the absence of an impetus for
Changes in the Earth’s UV reflectivity from the surface, warming, (2) without producing additional clouds or
clouds, and aerosols. Journal of Geophysical Research (3) making them any brighter.
106: 5353-5368. What have we subsequently learned about
Lindzen, R.S., Chou, M.-D. and Hou, A.Y. 2001. Does the biologically mediated increases in carbonyl sulfide
earth have an adaptive infrared iris? Bulletin of the emissions? One important thing is that the OCS-
American Meteorological Society 82: 417-432. induced cooling mechanism also operates at sea, just
as the DMS-induced cooling mechanism does, and
Rosenfeld, D. 2000. Suppression of rain and snow by urban
that it too possesses a warming-induced component in
and industrial air pollution. Science 287: 1793-1796.
addition to its CO2-induced component.
Sud, Y.C., Walker, G.K. and Lau, K.-M. 1999. In a study contemporary with that of Idso (1992),
Mechanisms regulating sea-surface temperatures and deep ocean-surface OCS concentrations were demonstrated
convection in the tropics. Geophysical Research Letters 26: by Andreae and Ferek (1992) to be highly correlated
1019-1022. with surface-water primary productivity. So strong is
Toon, O.W. 2000. How pollution suppresses rain. Science this correlation, in fact, that Erickson and Eaton
287: 1763-1765. (1993) developed an empirical model for computing
ocean-surface OCS concentrations based solely on
surface-water chlorophyll concentrations and values
2.2. Carbonyl Sulfide of incoming solar radiation. It has also been learned
that an even greater portion of naturally produced
Some time ago, Idso (1990) suggested that the OCS is created in the atmosphere, where carbon
volatilization of reduced sulfur gases from earth’s disulfide and dimethyl sulfide—also largely of
soils may be just as important as dimethyl sulfide oceanic origin (Aydin et al., 2002)—undergo
(DMS) emissions from the world’s oceans in photochemical oxidation (Khalil and Rasmussen,
enhancing cloud albedo and thereby cooling the 1984; Barnes et al., 1994). Hence, the majority of the
planet and providing a natural brake on the tendency tropospheric burden of OCS is ultimately dependent
for anthropogenically enhanced greenhouse gases to upon photosynthetic activity occurring near the
drive global warming. (See Section 2.7.) On the basis surface of the world’s oceans.
of experiments that showed soil DMS emissions to be This is important because the tropospheric OCS
positively correlated with soil organic matter content, concentration has risen by approximately 30 percent
and noting that additions of organic matter to soils since the 1600s, from a mean value of 373 ppt over
tend to increase the amount of sulfur gases they emit, the period 1616-1694 to something on the order of
Idso hypothesized that because atmospheric CO2 485 ppt today. This is a sizeable increase; and Aydin
enrichment augments plant growth and, as a result, et al. (2002) note that only a fourth of it can be
vegetative inputs of organic matter to earth’s soils, attributed to anthropogenic sources. Consequently,
this phenomenon should produce an impetus for the rest of the observed OCS increase must have had
cooling, even in the absence of the surface warming a natural origin, a large portion of which must have
that sets in motion the chain of events that produce ultimately been derived from the products and
the oceanic DMS-induced negative feedback that byproducts of marine photosynthetic activity, which
tends to cool the planet. must have increased substantially over the past three
Two years later, Idso (1992) expanded this centuries. A solid case can be made for the
concept to include carbonyl sulfide (OCS), another proposition that both the increase in atmospheric CO2
biologically produced sulfur gas that is emitted from concentration and the increase in temperature
soils, noting that it too is likely to be emitted in experienced over this period were the driving forces
increasingly greater quantities as earth’s vegetation for the concomitant increase in tropospheric OCS
responds to the aerial fertilization effect of the concentration and its likely subsequent transport to
ongoing rise in the air’s CO2 content, while pointing the stratosphere, where it could exert a cooling
out that OCS is relatively inert in the troposphere, but influence on the earth and that may have kept the
that it eventually makes its way into the stratosphere, warming of the globe considerably below what it
where it is transformed into solar-radiation-reflecting might otherwise have been in the absence of this
sulfate aerosol particles. He consequently concluded chain of events.
that the CO2-induced augmentation of soil OCS
emissions constitutes a mechanism that can cool the

29
 Climate Change Reconsidered

Another fascinating aspect of this multifaceted Additional information on this topic, including
global “biothermostat” was revealed in a laboratory reviews of newer publications as they become
study of samples of the lichen Ramalina menziesii, available, can be found at http://www.co2science.org/
which were collected from an open oak woodland in subject/c/carbonylsulfide.php.
central California, USA, by Kuhn and Kesselmeier
(2000). They found that when the lichens were
optimally hydrated, they absorbed OCS from the air References
at a rate that gradually doubled as air temperature rose
from approximately 3° to 25°C, whereupon their rate Andreae, M.O. and Ferek, R.J. 1992. Photochemical
of OCS absorption began a precipitous decline that production of carbonyl sulfide in seawater and its emission
led to zero OCS absorption at 35°C. to the atmosphere. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 6: 175-
183.
The first portion of this response can be explained
by the fact that most terrestrial plants prefer much Aydin, M., De Bruyn, W.J. and Saltzman, E.S. 2002.
warmer temperatures than a mere 3°C, so that as their Preindustrial atmospheric carbonyl sulfide (OCS) from an
surroundings warm and they grow better, they extract Antarctic ice core. Geophysical Research Letters 29:
more OCS from the atmosphere in an attempt to 10.1029/2002GL014796.
promote even more warming and grow better still. At Barnes, I., Becker, K.H. and Petroescu, I. 1994. The
the point where warming becomes a detriment to tropospheric oxidation of DMS: a new source of OCS.
them, however, they reverse this course of action and Geophysical Research Letters 21: 2389-2392.
begin to rapidly reduce their rates of OCS absorption
in an attempt to forestall warming-induced death. And Erickson III, D.J. and Eaton, B.E. 1993. Global
since the consumption of OCS by lichens is under the biogeochemical cycling estimates with CZCS satellite data
and general circulation models. Geophysical Research
physiological control of carbonic anhydrase—which
Letters 20: 683-686.
is the key enzyme for OCS uptake in all higher plants,
algae, and soil organisms—we could expect this Idso, S.B. 1990. A role for soil microbes in moderating the
phenomenon to be generally operative over most of carbon dioxide greenhouse effect? Soil Science 149: 179-
the earth. Hence, this thermoregulatory function of 180.
the biosphere may well be powerful enough to define Idso, S.B. 1992. The DMS-cloud albedo feedback effect:
an upper limit above which the surface air Greatly underestimated? Climatic Change 21: 429-433.
temperature of the planet may be restricted from
rising, even when changes in other forcing factors, Khalil, M.A.K. and Rasmussen, R.A. 1984. Global sources,
such as increases in greenhouse gas concentrations, lifetimes, and mass balances of carbonyl sulfide (OCS) and
produce an impetus for it to do so. carbon disulfide (CS2) in the earth’s atmosphere.
Atmospheric Environment 18: 1805-1813.
Clearly, this multifaceted phenomenon is
extremely complex, with different biological entities Kuhn, U. and Kesselmeier, J. 2000. Environmental
tending to both increase and decrease atmospheric variables controlling the uptake of carbonyl sulfide by
OCS concentrations at one and the same time, while lichens. Journal of Geophysical Research 105: 26,783-
periodically reversing directions in this regard in 26,792.
response to climate changes that push the
temperatures of their respective environments either
above or below the various thermal optima at which
2.3. Diffuse Light
they function best. This being the case, there is
obviously much more we need to learn about the
The next negative feedback phenomenon is diffused
many plant physiological mechanisms that may be
light. It operates through a chain of five linkages,
involved.
triggered by the incremental enhancement of the
State-of-the-art climate models totally neglect the
atmosphere’s greenhouse effect that is produced by an
biological processes we have described here. Until we
increase in the air’s CO2 content. The first linkages is
fully understand the ultimate impact of the OCS cycle
the proven propensity for higher levels of atmospheric
on climate, and then incorporate them into the climate
CO2 to enhance vegetative productivity, which
models, we cannot be certain how much of the
phenomena are themselves powerful negative
warming experienced during the twentieth century, if
feedback mechanisms of the type we envision.
any, can be attributed to anthropogenic causes.
Greater CO2-enhanced photosynthetic rates, for

30
 Feedback Factors and Radiative Forcing

example, enable plants to remove considerably more well have resulted in the removal of an extra 2.5 Gt of
CO2 from the air than they do under current carbon from the atmosphere due to its diffuse-light-
conditions, while CO2-induced increases in plant enhancing stimulation of terrestrial vegetation in the
water use efficiency allow plants to grow where it year following the eruption, which would have
was previously too dry for them. (See Chapter 7 for reduced the ongoing rise in the air’s CO2
extensive documentation of this phenomenon.) This concentration that year by about 1.2 ppm.
establishes a potential for more CO2 to be removed Interestingly, this reduction is about the
from the atmosphere by increasing the abundance of magnitude of the real-world perturbation that was
earth’s plants and increasing their robustness. actually observed (Sarmiento, 1993). What makes this
The second linkage of the feedback loop is the observation even more impressive is the fact that the
ability of plants to emit gases to the atmosphere that CO2 reduction was coincident with an El Niño event;
are ultimately converted into “biosols,” i.e., aerosols because, in the words of Roderick et al., “previous
that owe their existence to the biological activities of and subsequent such events have been associated with
earth’s vegetation, many of which function as cloud increases in atmospheric CO2.” In addition, the
condensation nuclei. It takes little imagination to observed reduction in total solar radiation received at
realize that since the existence of these atmospheric the earth’s surface during this period would have had
particles is dependent upon the physiological a tendency to reduce the amount of photosynthetically
activities of plants and their associated soil biota, the active radiation incident upon earth’s plants, which
CO2-induced presence of more, and more-highly- would also have had a tendency to cause the air’s CO2
productive, plants will lead to the production of more content to rise, as it would tend to lessen global
of these cloud-mediating particles, which can then photosynthetic activity.
result in more clouds which reflect sunlight and act to Significant support for the new negative feedback
cool the planet. phenomenon was swift in coming, as the very next
The third linkage is the observed propensity for year a team of 33 researchers published the results of
increases in aerosols and cloud particles to enhance a comprehensive study (Law et al., 2002) that
the amount of diffuse solar radiation reaching the compared seasonal and annual values of CO2 and
earth’s surface. The fourth linkage is the ability of water vapor exchange across sites in forests,
enhanced diffuse lighting to reduce the volume of grasslands, crops and tundra—which are part of an
shade within vegetative canopies. The fifth linkage is international network called FLUXNET—
the tendency for less internal canopy shading to investigating the responses of these exchanges to
enhance whole-canopy photosynthesis, which finally variations in a number of environmental factors,
produces the end result: a greater biological extraction including direct and diffuse solar radiation. The
of CO2 from the air and the subsequent sequestration researchers reported that “net carbon uptake (net
of its carbon, compliments of the intensified diffuse- ecosystem exchange, the net of photosynthesis and
light-driven increase in total canopy photosynthesis respiration) was greater under diffuse than under
and subsequent transfers of the extra fixed carbon to direct radiation conditions,” and in discussing this
plant and soil storage reservoirs. finding, which is the centerpiece of the negative
How significant is this multi-link process? feedback phenomenon we describe, they noted that
Roderick et al. (2001) provide a good estimate based “cloud-cover results in a greater proportion of diffuse
on the utilization of a unique “natural experiment,” a radiation and constitutes a higher fraction of light
technique that has been used extensively by Idso penetrating to lower depths of the canopy (Oechel and
(1998) to evaluate the climatic sensitivity of the entire Lawrence, 1985).” More importantly, they also
planet. Specifically, Roderick and his colleagues reported that “Goulden et al. (1997), Fitzjarrald et al.
considered the volcanic eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in (1995), and Sakai et al. (1996) showed that net carbon
June 1991, which ejected enough gases and fine uptake was consistently higher during cloudy periods
materials into the atmosphere to produce sufficient in a boreal coniferous forest than during sunny
aerosol particles to greatly increase the diffuse periods with the same PPFD [photosynthetic photon
component of the solar radiation reaching the surface flux density].” In fact, they wrote that “Hollinger et
of the earth from that point in time through much of al. (1994) found that daily net CO2 uptake was greater
1993, while only slightly reducing the receipt of total on cloudy days, even though total PPFD was 21-45
solar radiation. Based on a set of lengthy calculations, percent lower on cloudy days than on clear days.”
they concluded that the Mt. Pinatubo eruption may

31
 Climate Change Reconsidered

One year later, Gu et al. (2003) reported that they network (Baldocchi et al., 2001) together with cloud-
“used two independent and direct methods to examine free aerosol optical depth data from the NASA
the photosynthetic response of a northern hardwood Robotic Network (AERONET; Holben et al., 2001) to
forest (Harvard Forest, 42.5°N, 72.2°W) to changes in assess the effect of aerosol loading on the net
diffuse radiation caused by Mount Pinatubo’s assimilation of CO2 by three types of vegetation: trees
volcanic aerosols,” finding that in the eruption year of (broadleaf deciduous forest and mixed forest), crops
1991, “around noontime in the mid-growing season, (winter wheat, soybeans, and corn), and grasslands.
the gross photosynthetic rate under the perturbed Their work revealed that an aerosol-induced increase
cloudless solar radiation regime was 23, 8, and 4 in diffuse radiative-flux fraction [DRF = ratio of
percent higher than that under the normal cloudless diffuse (Rd) to total or global (Rg) solar irradiance]
solar radiation regime in 1992, 1993, and 1994, increased the net CO2 assimilation of trees and crops,
respectively,” and that “integrated over a day, the making them larger carbon sinks, but that it decreased
enhancement for canopy gross photosynthesis by the the net CO2 assimilation of grasslands, making them
volcanic aerosols was 21 percent in 1992, 6 percent in smaller carbon sinks.
1993 and 3 percent in 1994.” Commenting on the How significant were the effects observed by
significance of these observations, Gu et al. noted that Niyogi et al.? For a summer mid-range Rg flux of 500
“because of substantial increases in diffuse radiation Wm-2, going from the set of all DRF values between
world-wide after the eruption and strong positive 0.0 and 0.4 to the set of all DRF values between 0.6
effects of diffuse radiation for a variety of vegetation and 1.0 resulted in an approximate 50 percent
types, it is likely that our findings at Harvard Forest increase in net CO2 assimilation by a broadleaf
represent a global phenomenon.” deciduous forest located in Tennessee, USA.
In the preceding paragraph, we highlighted the Averaged over the entire daylight period, they further
fact that the diffuse-light-induced photosynthetic determined that the shift from the lower to the higher
enhancement observed by Gu et al., in addition to set of DRF values “enhances photosynthetic fluxes by
likely being global in scope, was caused by volcanic about 30 percent at this study site.” Similar results
aerosols acting under cloudless conditions. Our were obtained for the mixed forest and the
reason for calling attention to these two facts is to conglomerate of crops studied. Hence, they concluded
clearly distinguish this phenomenon from a closely that natural variability among commonly present
related one that is also described by Gu et al.; i.e., the aerosols can “routinely influence surface irradiance
propensity for the extra diffuse light created by and hence the terrestrial CO2 flux and regional carbon
increased cloud cover to further enhance cycle.” And for these types of land-cover (forests and
photosynthesis, even though the total flux of solar agricultural crops), that influence is to significantly
radiation received at the earth’s surface may be increase the assimilation of CO2 from the atmosphere.
reduced under such conditions. Based on still more In the case of grasslands, however, the effect was
real-world data, for example, Gu et al. note that found to be just the opposite, with greater aerosol
“Harvard Forest photosynthesis also increases with loading of the atmosphere leading to less CO2
cloud cover, with a peak at about 50 percent cloud assimilation, due most likely, in the estimation of
cover.” Niyogi et al., to grasslands’ significantly different
Although very impressive, in all of the situations canopy architecture. With respect to the planet as a
discussed above the source of the enhanced whole, however, the net effect is decidedly positive,
atmospheric aerosol concentration was a singular as earth’s trees are the primary planetary players in
significant event—specifically, a massive volcanic the sequestration of carbon. Post et al. (1990), for
eruption—but what we really need to know is what example, noted that woody plants account for
happens under more normal conditions. This was the approximately 75 percent of terrestrial
new and important question addressed the following photosynthesis, which comprises about 90 percent of
year in the study of Niyogi et al. (2004): “Can we the global total (Sellers and McCarthy, 1990); those
detect the effect of relatively routine aerosol numbers make earth’s trees and shrubs responsible for
variability on field measurements of CO2 fluxes, and fully two-thirds (0.75 x 90 percent = 67.5 percent) of
if so, how does the variability in aerosol loading the planet’s net primary production.
affect CO2 fluxes over different landscapes?” What is especially exciting about these real-world
To answer this question, the group of 16 observations is that much of the commonly-present
researchers used CO2 flux data from the AmeriFlux aerosol burden of the atmosphere is plant-derived.

32
 Feedback Factors and Radiative Forcing

Hence, it can be appreciated that earth’s woody plants uptake in the northern boreal forest. In: Proceedings of the
are themselves responsible for emitting to the air that American Geophysical Union Meeting, Spring 1995, EOS
which ultimately enhances their own photosynthetic Supplement, p. S125.
prowess. In other words, earth’s trees significantly Goulden, M.L., Daube, B.C., Fan, S.-M., Sutton, D.J.,
control their own destiny; i.e., they alter the Bazzaz, A., Munger, J.W. and Wofsy, S.C. 1997.
atmospheric environment in a way that directly Physiological responses of a black spruce forest to weather.
enhances their opportunities for greater growth. Journal of Geophysical Research 102: 28,987-28,996.
Society helps too, in this regard, for as we pump
Gu, L., Baldocchi, D.D., Wofsy, S.C., Munger, J.W.,
ever more CO2 into the atmosphere, the globe’s
Michalsky, J.J., Urbanski, S.P. and Boden, T.A. 2003.
woody plants quickly respond to its aerial fertilization Response of a deciduous forest to the Mount Pinatubo
effect, becoming ever more productive, which leads eruption: Enhanced photosynthesis. Science 299: 2035-
to even more plant-derived aerosols being released to 2038.
the atmosphere, which stimulates this positive
feedback cycle to a still greater degree. Stated another Holben, B.N., Tanré, D., Smirnov, A., Eck, T.F., Slutsker,
way, earth’s trees use some of the CO2 emitted to the I., Abuhassan, N., Newcomb, W.W., Schafer, J.S.,
Chatenet, B., Lavenu, F., Kaufman, Y.J., Castle, J.V.,
atmosphere by society to alter the aerial environment
Setzer, A., Markham, B., Clark, D., Frouin, R., Halthore,
so as to enable them to remove even more CO2 from R., Karneli, A., O’Neill, N.T., Pietras, C., Pinker, R.T.,
the air. The end result is that earth’s trees and Voss, K. and Zibordi, G. 2001. An emerging ground-based
humanity are working hand-in-hand to significantly aerosol climatology: Aerosol Optical Depth from
increase the productivity of the biosphere. This is AERONET. Journal of Geophysical Research 106: 12,067-
happening in spite of all other insults to the 12,097.
environment that work in opposition to enhanced
Hollinger, D.Y., Kelliher, F.M., Byers, J.N. and Hunt, J.E.
biological activity.
1994. Carbon dioxide exchange between an undisturbed
In light of these several observations, it is clear old-growth temperate forest and the atmosphere. Ecology
that the historical and still-ongoing CO2-induced 75: 134-150.
increase in atmospheric biosols should have had, and
should be continuing to have, a significant cooling Idso, S.B. 1998. CO2-induced global warming: a skeptic’s
effect on the planet that exerts itself by both slowing view of potential climate change. Climate Research 10: 69-
the rate of rise of the air’s CO2 content and reducing 82.
the receipt of solar radiation at the earth’s surface. Law, B.E., Falge, E., Gu, L., Baldocchi, D.D., Bakwin, P.,
Neither of these effects is fully and adequately Berbigier, P., Davis, K., Dolman, A.J., Falk, M., Fuentes,
included in any general circulation model of the J.D., Goldstein, A., Granier, A., Grelle, A., Hollinger, D.,
atmosphere of which we are aware. Janssens, I.A., Jarvis, P., Jensen, N.O., Katul, G., Mahli,
Additional information on this topic, including Y., Matteucci, G., Meyers, T., Monson, R., Munger, W.,
reviews of newer publications as they become Oechel, W., Olson, R., Pilegaard, K., Paw U, K.T.,
available, can be found at http://www.co2science.org/ Thorgeirsson, H., Valentini, R., Verma, S., Vesala, T.,
Wilson, K. and Wofsy, S. 2002. Environmental controls
subject/f/feedbackdiffuse.php.
over carbon dioxide and water vapor exchange of terrestrial
vegetation. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 113: 97-
120.
References
Niyogi, D., Chang, H.-I., Saxena, V.K., Holt, T., Alapaty,
Baldocchi, D., Falge, E., Gu, L.H., Olson, R., Hollinger, K., Booker, F., Chen, F., Davis, K.J., Holben, B., Matsui,
D., Running, S., Anthoni, P., Bernhofer, C., Davis, K., T., Meyers, T., Oechel, W.C., Pielke Sr., R.A., Wells, R.,
Evans, R., Fuentes, J., Goldstein, A., Katul, G., Law, B., Wilson, K. and Xue, Y. 2004. Direct observations of the
Lee, X.H., Malhi, Y., Meyers, T., Munger, W., Oechel, W., effects of aerosol loading on net ecosystem CO2 exchanges
Paw U, K.T., Pilegaard, K., Schmid, H.P., Valentini, R., over different landscapes. Geophysical Research Letters
Verma, S., Vesala, T., Wilson, K. and Wofsy, S. 2001. 31: 10.1029/2004GL020915.
FLUXNET: A new tool to study the temporal and spatial
variability of ecosystem-scale carbon dioxide, water vapor, Oechel, W.C. and Lawrence, W.T. 1985. Tiaga. In: Chabot,
and energy flux densities. Bulletin of the American B.F. and Mooney, H.A. (Eds.) Physiological Ecology of
North American Plant Communities. Chapman & Hall,
Meteorological Society 82: 2415-2434.
New York, NY, pp. 66-94.
Fitzjarrald, D.R., Moore, K.E., Sakai, R.K. and Freedman,
J.M. 1995. Assessing the impact of cloud cover on carbon

33
 Climate Change Reconsidered

Post, W.M., Peng, T.-H., Emanuel, W.R., King, A.W., environmental conditions associated with global
Dale, V.H. and DeAngelis, D.L. 1990. The global carbon change.” Therefore, as O’Dowd et al. continue,
cycle. American Scientist 78: 310-326. “increasing the source rate of condensable iodine
Roderick, M.L., Farquhar, G.D., Berry, S.L. and Noble, vapors will result in an increase in marine aerosol and
I.R. 2001. On the direct effect of clouds and atmospheric CCN concentrations of the order of 20—60 percent.”
particles on the productivity and structure of vegetation. Furthermore, they note that “changes in cloud albedo
Oecologia 129: 21-30. resulting from changes in CCN concentrations of this
magnitude can lead to an increase in global radiative
Sakai, R.K., Fitzjarrald, D.R., Moore, K.E. and Freedman,
forcing similar in magnitude, but opposite in sign, to
J.M. 1996. How do forest surface fluxes depend on
fluctuating light level? In: Proceedings of the 22nd the forcing induced by greenhouse gases.”
Conference on Agricultural and Forest Meteorology with Four years later, Smythe-Wright et al. (2006)
Symposium on Fire and Forest Meteorology, Vol. 22, measured trace gas and pigment concentrations in
American Meteorological Society, pp. 90-93. seawater, while identifying and enumerating
picophytoprokaryotes during two ship cruises in the
Sarmiento, J.L. 1993. Atmospheric CO2 stalled. Nature Atlantic Ocean and one in the Indian Ocean, where
365: 697-698.
they focused “on methyl iodide production and the
Sellers, P. and McCarthy, J.J. 1990. Planet Earth, Part III, importance of a biologically related source.” In doing
Biosphere. EOS: Transactions of the American so, they encountered methyl iodide concentrations as
Geophysical Union 71: 1883-1884. great as 45 pmol per liter in the top 150 meters of the
oceanic water column that correlated well with the
abundance of Prochlorococcus, which they report
2.4. Iodocompounds “can account for >80 percent of the variability in the
methyl iodide concentrations.” They add that they
The climatic significance of iodinated compounds or “have confirmed the release of methyl iodide by this
iodocompounds was first described in the pages of species in laboratory culture experiments.”
Nature by O’Dowd et al. (2002). As related by Kolb Extrapolating their findings to the globe as a
(2002) in an accompanying perspective on their work, whole, the six researchers “estimate the global ocean
the 10-member research team discovered “a flux of iodine [I] to the marine boundary layer from
previously unrecognized source of aerosol particles” this single source to be 5.3 x 1011 g I year-1,” which
by unraveling “a photochemical phenomenon that they say “is a large fraction of the total estimated
occurs in sea air and produces aerosol particles global flux of iodine (1011-1012 g I year-1).” This
composed largely of iodine oxides.” Specifically, the observation is extremely important, because volatile
team used a smog chamber operated under coastal iodinated compounds, in Smythe-Wright et al.’s
atmospheric conditions to demonstrate, as they report, words, “play a part in the formation of new particles
that “new particles can form from condensable and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN),” and because
iodine-containing vapors, which are the photolysis “an increase in the production of iodocompounds and
products of biogenic iodocarbons emitted from the subsequent production of CCN would potentially
marine algae.” With the help of aerosol formation result in a net cooling of the earth system and hence
models, they also demonstrated that concentrations of in a negative climate feedback mechanism, mitigating
condensable iodine-containing vapors over the open global warming.” More specifically, they suggest that
ocean “are sufficient to influence marine particle “as ocean waters become warmer and more stratified,
formation.” nutrient concentrations will fall and there will likely
The significance of this work is that the aerosol be a regime shift away from microalgae toward
particles O’Dowd et al. discovered can function as Prochlorococcus,” such that “colonization within the
cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), helping to create <50° latitude band will result in a ~15 percent
new clouds that reflect more incoming solar radiation increase in the release of iodine to the atmosphere,”
back to space and thereby cool the planet (a negative with consequent “important implications for global
feedback). With respect to the negative feedback climate change,” which, as previously noted, tend to
nature of this phenomenon, O’Dowd et al. cite the counteract global warming.
work of Laturnus et al. (2000), which demonstrates Most recently, as part of the Third Pelagic
that emissions of iodocarbons from marine biota “can Ecosystem CO2 Enrichment Study, Wingenter et al.
increase by up to 5 times as a result of changes in (2007) investigated the effects of atmospheric CO2

34
 Feedback Factors and Radiative Forcing

enrichment on marine microorganisms in nine marine References

mesocosms maintained within two-meter-diameter
polyethylene bags submerged to a depth of 10 meters Jimenez, J.L., Bahreini, R., Cocker III, D.R., Zhuang, H.,
in a fjord at the Large-Scale Facilities of the Varutbangkul, V., Flagan, R.C., Seinfeld, J.H., O’Dowd,
Biological Station of the University of Bergen in C.D. and Hoffmann, T. 2003. New particle formation from
photooxidation of diiodomethane (CH2I2). Journal of
Espegrend, Norway. Three of these mesocosms were
Geophysical Research 108: 10.1029/2002JD002452.
maintained at ambient levels of CO2 (~375 ppm or
base CO2), three were maintained at levels expected Kolb, C.E. 2002. Iodine’s air of importance. Nature 417:
to prevail at the end of the current century (760 ppm 597-598.
or 2xCO2), and three were maintained at levels
Laturnus, F., Giese, B., Wiencke, C. and Adams, F.C.
predicted for the middle of the next century (1150 2000. Low-molecular-weight organoiodine and
ppm or 3xCO2). During the 25 days of this organobromine compounds released by polar macroalgae—
experiment, the researchers followed the development The influence of abiotic factors. Fresenius’ Journal of
and subsequent decline of an induced bloom of the Analytical Chemistry 368: 297-302.
coccolithophorid Emiliania huxleyi, carefully
measuring several physical, chemical, and biological O’Dowd, C.D., Jimenez, J.L., Bahreini, R., Flagan, R.C.,
Seinfeld, J.H., Hameri, K., Pirjola, L., Kulmala, M.,
parameters along the way. This work revealed that the
Jennings, S.G. and Hoffmann, T. 2002. Marine aerosol
iodocarbon chloroiodomethane (CH2CII) experienced formation from biogenic iodine emissions. Nature 417:
its peak concentration about six to 10 days after the 632-636.
coccolithophorid’s chlorophyll-a maximum, and that
its estimated abundance was 46 percent higher in the Smythe-Wright, D., Boswell, S.M., Breithaupt, P.,
2xCO2 mesocosms and 131 percent higher in the Davidson, R.D., Dimmer, C.H. and Eiras Diaz, L.B. 2006.
3xCO2 mesocosms. Methyl iodide production in the ocean: Implications for
climate change. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 20:
The international team of scientists concluded
10.1029/2005GB002642.
that the differences in the CH2CII concentrations
“may be viewed as a result of changes to the Wingenter, O.W., Haase, K.B., Zeigler, M., Blake, D.R.,
ecosystems as a whole brought on by the CO2 Rowland, F.S., Sive, B.C., Paulino, A., Thyrhaug, R.,
perturbations.” And because emissions of various Larsen, A., Schulz, K., Meyerhofer, M. and Riebesell, U.
iodocarbons have been found to lead to an 2007. Unexpected consequences of increasing CO2 and
enhancement of cloud condensation nuclei in the ocean acidity on marine production of DMS and CH2CII:
Potential climate impacts. Geophysical Research Letters
marine atmosphere, as demonstrated by O’Dowd et
34: 10.1029/2006GL028139.
al. (2002) and Jimenez et al. (2003), it can be
appreciated that the CO2-induced stimulation of the
marine emissions of these substances provides a
natural brake on the tendency for global warming to 2.5. Nitrous Oxide
occur as a consequence of any forcing, as iodocarbons
lead to the creation of more highly reflective clouds One of the main sources of nitrous oxide (N2O) is
over greater areas of the world’s oceans. agriculture, which accounts for almost half of N2O
In conclusion, as Wingenter et al. sum things up, emissions in some countries (Pipatti, 1997). With
the processes described above “may help contribute to N2O originating from microbial N cycling in soil—
the homeostasis of the planet.” And the finding of mostly from aerobic nitrification or from anaerobic
O’Dowd et al. that changes in cloud albedo denitrification (Firestone and Davidson, 1989)—there
“associated with global change” can lead to an is a concern that CO2-induced increases in carbon
increase in global radiative forcing that is “similar in input to soil, together with increasing N input from
magnitude, but opposite in sign, to the forcing other sources, will increase substrate availability for
induced by greenhouse gases,” suggests that CO2- denitrifying bacteria and may result in higher N2O
induced increases in marine iodocarbon emissions emissions from agricultural soils as the air’s CO2
likely contribute to maintaining that homeostasis. content continues to rise.
Additional information on this topic, including In a study designed to investigate this possibility,
reviews of newer publications as they become Kettunen et al. (2007a) grew mixed stands of timothy
available, can be found at http://www.co2science.org/ (Phleum pratense) and red clover (Trifolium
subject/f/feedbackiodo.php. pratense) in sandy-loam-filled mesocosms at low and

35
 Climate Change Reconsidered

moderate soil nitrogen levels within greenhouses to the elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration was
maintained at either 360 or 720 ppm CO2, while not found.”
measuring harvestable biomass production and N2O Welzmiller et al. (2008) measured N2O and
evolution from the mesocosm soils over the course of denitrification emission rates in a C4 sorghum
three crop cuttings. This work revealed that the total [Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench] production system
harvestable biomass production of P. pratense was with ample and limited flood irrigation rates under
enhanced by the experimental doubling of the air’s Free-Air CO2 Enrichment (seasonal mean = 579 ppm)
CO2 concentration by 21 percent and 26 percent, and control (seasonal mean = 396 ppm) CO2 during
respectively, in the low and moderate soil N the 1998 and 1999 summer growing seasons at the
treatments, while corresponding biomass experimental FACE site near Maricopa, Arizona
enhancements for T. pratense were 22 percent and 18 (USA). The study found “elevated CO2 did not result
percent. In addition, the researchers found that after in increased N2O or N-gas emissions with either
emergence of the mixed stand and during vegetative ample or limited irrigation,” which findings they
growth before the first harvest and N fertilization, describe as being “consistent with findings for
N2O fluxes were higher under ambient CO2 in both unirrigated western U.S. ecosystems reported by
the low and moderate soil N treatments. In fact, it was Billings et al. (2002) for Mojave Desert soils and by
not until the water table had been raised and extra Mosier et al. (2002) for Colorado shortgrass steppe.”
fertilization given after the first harvest that the In discussing the implications of their findings,
elevated CO2 seemed to increase N2O fluxes. The Welzmiller et al. say their results suggest that “as CO2
four Finnish researchers thus concluded that the concentrations increase, there will not be major
mixed stand of P. pratense and T. pratense was “able increases in denitrification in C4 cropping
to utilize the increased supply of atmospheric CO2 for environments such as irrigated sorghum in the desert
enhanced biomass production without a simultaneous southwestern United States,” which further suggests
increase in the N2O fluxes,” thereby raising “the there will not be an increased impetus for global
possibility of maintaining N2O emissions at their warming due to this phenomenon.
current level, while still enhancing the yield In a different type of study—driven by the
production [via the aerial fertilization effect of possibility that the climate of the Amazon Basin may
elevated CO2] even under low N fertilizer additions.” gradually become drier due to a warming-induced
In a similar study, Kettunen et al. (2007b) grew increase in the frequency and/or intensity of El Niño
timothy (Phleum pratense) in monoculture within events that have historically brought severe drought to
sandy-soil-filled mesocosms located within the region—Davidson et al. (2004) devised an
greenhouses maintained at atmospheric CO2 experiment to determine the consequences of the
concentrations of either 360 or 720 ppm for a period drying of the soil of an Amazonian moist tropical
of 3.5 months at moderate (standard), low (half- forest for the net surface-to-air fluxes of both N2O
standard), and high (1.5 times standard) soil N supply, and methane (CH4). This they did in the Tapajos
while they measured the evolution of N2O from the National Forest near Santarem, Brazil, by modifying a
mesocosms, vegetative net CO2 exchange, and final one-hectare plot of land covered by mature evergreen
above- and below-ground biomass production over trees so as to dramatically reduce the amount of rain
the course of three harvests. In this experiment the that reached the forest floor (throughfall), while
elevated CO2 concentration increased the net CO2 maintaining an otherwise similar one-hectare plot of
exchange of the ecosystems (which phenomenon was land as a control for comparison.
primarily driven by CO2-induced increases in Prior to making this modification, the three
photosynthesis) by about 30 percent, 46 percent and researchers measured the gas exchange characteristics
34 percent at the low, moderate, and high soil N of the two plots for a period of 18 months; then, after
levels, respectively, while it increased the above- initiating the throughfall-exclusion treatment, they
ground biomass of the crop by about 8 percent, 14 continued their measurements for an additional three
percent, and 8 percent at the low, moderate and high years. This work revealed that the “drier soil
soil N levels, and its below-ground biomass by 28 conditions caused by throughfall exclusion inhibited
percent, 27 percent, and 41 percent at the same N2O and CH4 production and promoted CH4
respective soil N levels. And once again, Kettunen et consumption.” In fact, they report that “the exclusion
al. report that “an explicit increase in N2O fluxes due manipulation lowered annual N2O emissions by >40
percent and increased rates of consumption of

36
 Feedback Factors and Radiative Forcing

atmospheric CH4 by a factor of >4,” which results Kettunen, R., Saarnio, S., Martikainen, P.J. and Silvola, J.
they attributed to the “direct effect of soil aeration on 2007a. Can a mixed stand of N2-fixing and non-fixing
denitrification, methanogenesis, and methanotrophy.” plants restrict N2O emissions with increasing CO2
Consequently, if global warming would indeed concentration? Soil Biology & Biochemistry 39: 2538-
2546.
increase the frequency and/or intensity of El Niño
events as some claim it will, the results of this study Kettunen, R., Saarnio, S. and Silvola, J. 2007b. N2O fluxes
suggest that the anticipated drying of the Amazon and CO2 exchange at different N doses under elevated CO2
Basin would initiate a strong negative feedback via concentration in boreal agricultural mineral soil under
(1) large drying-induced reductions in the evolution Phleum pratense. Nutrient Cycling in Agroecosystems 78:
of both N2O and CH4 from its soils, and (2) a huge 197-209.
drying-induced increase in the consumption of CH4 Mosier, A.R., Morgan, J.A., King, J.Y., LeCain, D. and
by its soils. Although Davidson et al. envisage a more Milchunas, D.G. 2002. Soil-atmosphere exchange of CH4,
extreme second phase response “in which drought- CO2, NOX, and N2O in the Colorado shortgrass steppe
induced plant mortality is followed by increased under elevated CO2. Plant and Soil 240: 201-211.
mineralization of C and N substrates from dead fine
Pipatti, R. 1997. Suomen metaani-ja dityppioksidipaastojen
roots and by increased foraging of termites on dead
rajoittamisen mahdollisuudet ja kustannustehokkuus. VTT
coarse roots” (an extreme response that would be tiedotteita. 1835, Espoo, 62 pp.
expected to increase N2O and CH4 emissions), we
note that the projected rise in the air’s CO2 content Welzmiller, J.T., Matthias, A.D., White, S. and Thompson,
would likely prohibit such a thing from ever T.L. 2008. Elevated carbon dioxide and irrigation effects
occurring, due to the documented tendency for on soil nitrogen gas exchange in irrigated sorghum. Soil
atmospheric CO2 enrichment to greatly increase the Science Society of America Journal 72: 393-401.
water use efficiency of essentially all plants, which
would enable the forest to continue to flourish under
significantly drier conditions than those of the 2.6. Methane
present.
In summation, it would appear that concerns What impact do global warming, the ongoing rise in
about additional global warming arising from the air’s carbon dioxide (CO2) content and a number
enhanced N2O emissions from agricultural soils in a of other contemporary environmental trends have on
CO2-enriched atmosphere of the future are not well the atmosphere’s methane (CH4) concentration? The
founded. implications of this question are huge because
Additional information on this topic, including methane is a more powerful greenhouse gas, molecule
reviews of newer publications as they become for molecule, than is carbon dioxide. Its atmospheric
available, can be found at http://www.co2science.org/ concentration is determined by the difference between
subject/n/nitrousoxide.php how much CH4 goes into the air (emissions) and how
much comes out of it (extractions) over the same time
period. There are significant forces at play that will
References likely produce a large negative feedback toward the
future warming potential of this powerful greenhouse
Billings, S.A., Schaeffer, S.M. and Evans, R.D. 2002.
Trace N gas losses and mineralization in Mojave Desert
gas, nearly all of which forces are ignored by the
soils exposed to elevated CO2. Soil Biology and IPCC.
Biochemistry 34: 1777-1784.
Davidson, E.A., Ishida, F.Y. and Nepstad, D.C. 2004. 2.6.1. Extraction
Effects of an experimental drought on soil emissions of
carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and nitric oxide in
Early indications that atmospheric CO2 enrichment
a moist tropical forest. Global Change Biology 10: 718-
730. might significantly reduce methane emissions
associated with the production of rice were provided
Firestone, M.K. and Davidson, E.A. 1989. Microbiological by Schrope et al. (1999), who studied batches of rice
basis of NO and N2O production and consumption in soil. growing in large vats filled with topsoil and placed
In: Andreae, M.O. and Schimel, D.S. (Eds.) Exchange of within greenhouse tunnels maintained at atmospheric
Trace Gases Between Terrestrial Ecosystems and the CO2 concentrations of 350 and 700 ppm, each of
Atmosphere. Wiley, Chichester, pp. 7-21.

37
 Climate Change Reconsidered

which tunnels was further subdivided into four A somewhat related study was conducted by
sections that provided temperature treatments ranging Kruger and Frenzel (2003), who note that “rice
from ambient to as much as 5°C above ambient. As paddies contribute approximately 10-13 percent to the
would be expected, doubling the air’s CO2 content global CH4 emission (Neue, 1997; Crutzen and
significantly enhanced rice biomass production in this Lelieveld, 2001),” and that “during the next 30 years
system, increasing it by up to 35 percent above- rice production has to be increased by at least 60
ground and by up to 83 percent below-ground. percent to meet the demands of the growing human
However, in a truly unanticipated development, population (Cassman et al., 1998).” Because of these
methane emissions from the rice grown at 700 ppm facts they further note that “increasing amounts of
CO2 were found to be 10 to 45 times less than fertilizer will have to be applied to maximize yields
emissions from the plants grown at 350 ppm. As [and] there is ongoing discussion on the possible
Schrope et al. describe it, “the results of this study did effects of fertilization on CH4 emissions.”
not support our hypothesis that an effect of both To help promote that discussion, Kruger and
increased carbon dioxide and temperature would be Frenzel investigated the effects of N-fertilizer (urea)
an increase in methane emissions.” Indeed, they on CH4 emission, production, and oxidation in rice
report that “both increased carbon dioxide and culture in laboratory, microcosm and field
increased temperatures were observed to produce experiments they conducted at the Italian Rice
decreased methane emissions,” except for the first Research Institute in northern Italy. They report that
2°C increase above ambient, which produced a slight in some prior studies “N-fertilisation stimulated CH4
increase in methane evolution from the plant-soil emissions (Cicerone and Shetter, 1981; Banik et al.,
system. 1996; Singh et al., 1996),” while “methanogenesis
In checking for potential problems with their and CH4 emission was found to be inhibited in others
experiment, Schrope et al. could find none. They thus (Cai et al., 1997; Schutz et al., 1989; Lindau et al.,
stated that their results “unequivocally support the 1990),” similar to the polarized findings of Schrope et
conclusion that, during this study, methane emissions al. and Inubushi et al. with respect to the effects of
from Oryza sativa [rice] plants grown under elevated CO2 on methane emissions. In the mean,
conditions of elevated CO2 were dramatically reduced therefore, there may well be little to no change in
relative to plants gown in comparable conditions overall CH4 emissions from rice fields in response to
under ambient levels of CO2,” and to be doubly sure both elevated CO2 and increased N-fertilization. With
of this fact, they went on to replicate their experiment respect to their own study, for example, Kruger and
in a second year of sampling and obtained essentially Frenzel say that “combining our field, microcosm and
the same results. Four years later, however, a study of laboratory experiments we conclude that any
the same phenomenon by a different set of scientists agricultural praxis improving the N-supply to the rice
yielded a different result in a different set of plants will also be favourable for the CH4 oxidising
circumstances. bacteria,” noting that “N-fertilisation had only a
Inubushi et al. (2003) grew a different cultivar of transient influence and was counter-balanced in the
rice in 1999 and 2000 in paddy culture at Shizukuishi, field by an elevated CH4 production.” The implication
Iwate, Japan in a FACE study where the air’s CO2 of these findings is well articulated in the concluding
concentration was increased 200 ppm above ambient. sentence of their paper: “neither positive nor negative
They found that the extra CO2 “significantly consequences for the overall global warming potential
increased the CH4 [methane] emissions by 38 percent could be found.”
in 1999 and 51 percent in 2000,” which phenomenon Another agricultural source of methane is the
they attributed to “accelerated CH4 production as a fermentation of feed in the rumen of cattle and sheep.
result of increased root exudates and root autolysis Fievez et al. (2003) studied the effects of various
products and to the increased plant-mediated CH4 types and levels of fish-oil feed additives on this
emission because of the higher rice tiller numbers process by means of both in vitro and in vivo
under FACE conditions.” With such a dramatically experiments with sheep, observing a maximal 80
different result from that of Schrope et al., many more percent decline in the ruminants’ production of
studies likely will be required to determine which of methane when using fish-oil additives containing n-3-
these results is the more typical of rice culture around eicosapentanoic acid. With respect to cattle, Boadi et
the world. al. (2004) report that existing mitigation strategies for
reducing CH4 emissions from dairy cows include the

38
 Feedback Factors and Radiative Forcing

addition of ionophores and fats to their food, as well climate-model-derived increases in temperature (3°C)
as the use of high-quality forages and grains in their and precipitation (1mm/day) predicted for a doubling
diet, while newer mitigation strategies include “the of the air’s CO2 content, CH4 emissions would
addition of probiotics, acetogens, bacteriocins, decline by 74-81 percent. In an attempt to obtain
archaeal viruses, organic acids, [and] plant extracts some experimental data on the subject, at various
(e.g., essential oils) to the diet, as well as times over the period 2001-2003 Strack et al.
immunization, and genetic selection of cows.” To this measured CH4 fluxes to the atmosphere at different
end, they provide a table of 20 such strategies, where locations that varied in depth-to-water table within
the average maximum potential CH4 reduction that natural portions of a poor fen in central Quebec,
may result from the implementation of each strategy Canada, as well as within control portions of the fen
is 30 percent or more. that had been drained eight years earlier.
With as many as 20 different mitigation strategies At the conclusion of their study, the Canadian
from which to choose, each one of which (on scientists reported that “methane emissions and
average) has the potential to reduce CH4 emissions storage were lower in the drained fen.” The greatest
from dairy cows by as much as a third, it would reductions (up to 97 percent) were measured at the
appear there is a tremendous potential to dramatically higher locations, while at the lower locations there
curtail the amount of CH4 released to the atmosphere was little change in CH4 flux. Averaged over all
by these ruminants and, by implication, the host of locations, they determined that the “growing season
other ruminants that mankind raises and uses for CH4 emissions at the drained site were 55 percent
various purposes around the world. Such high- lower than the control site,” indicative of the fact that
efficiency approaches to reducing the strength of the the biosphere appears to be organized to resist
atmosphere’s greenhouse effect, while not reducing warming influences that could push it into a thermal
the biological benefits of elevated atmospheric CO2 regime that might otherwise prove detrimental to its
concentrations in the process, should be at the top of health.
any program designed to achieve that difficult (but In another experimental study, Garnet et al.
still highly questionable) objective. (2005) grew seedlings of three emergent aquatic
In view of these several observations, we can be macrophytes (Orontium aquaticum L., Peltandra
cautiously optimistic about our agricultural virginica L., and Juncus effusus L.) plus one
intervention capabilities and their capacity to help coniferous tree (Taxodium distichum L.), all of which
stem the tide of earth’s historically rising atmospheric are native to eastern North America, in a five-to-one
methane concentration, which could take a huge bite mixture of well-fertilized mineral soil and peat moss
out of methane-induced global warming. But do in pots submerged in water in tubs located within
methane emissions from natural vegetation respond in controlled environment chambers for a period of eight
a similar way? weeks. Concomitantly, they measured the amount of
We have already discussed the results of CH4 emitted by the plant foliage, along with net CO2
Davidson et al. (2004) in our Nitrous Oxide section, assimilation rate and stomatal conductance, which
which results suggest that a global warming-induced were made to vary by changing the CO2 concentration
drying of the Amazon Basin would initiate a strong of the air surrounding the plants and the density of the
negative feedback to warming via (1) large drying- photosynthetic photon flux impinging on them.
induced reductions in the evolution of N2O and CH4 Methane emissions from the four wetland species
from its soils and (2) a huge drying-induced increase increased linearly with increases in both stomatal
in the consumption of CH4 by its soils. In a conductance and net CO2 assimilation rate; but the
contemporaneous study, Strack et al. (2004) also researchers found that changes in stomatal
reported that climate models predict increases in conductance affected foliage methane flux “three
evapotranspiration that could lead to drying in a times more than equivalent changes in net CO2
warming world and a subsequent lowering of water assimilation,” making stomatal conductance the more
tables in high northern latitudes. This prediction cries significant of the two CH4 emission-controllers. In
out for an analysis of how lowered water tables will addition, they note that evidence of stomatal control
affect peatland emissions of CH4. of CH4 emission has also been reported for Typha
In a theoretical study of the subject, Roulet et al. latifolia (Knapp and Yavitt, 1995) and Carex
(1992) calculated that for a decline of 14 cm in the (Morrissey et al., 1993), two other important wetland
water tables of northern Canadian peatlands, due to plants. Hence, since atmospheric CO2 enrichment

39
 Climate Change Reconsidered

leads to approximately equivalent—but oppositely ratio that typically results from atmospheric CO2
directed—changes in foliar net CO2 assimilation enrichment.
(which is increased) and stomatal conductance (which Another study that deals with this topic is that of
is reduced) in most herbaceous plants (which are the Menyailo and Hungate (2003), who assessed the
type that comprise most wetlands), it can be influence of six boreal forest species—spruce, birch,
appreciated that the ongoing rise in the air’s CO2 Scots pine, aspen, larch, and Arolla pine—on soil
content should be acting to reduce methane emissions CH4 consumption in the Siberian artificial
from earth’s wetland vegetation, because of the three- afforestation experiment, in which the six common
times-greater negative CH4 emission impact of the boreal tree species had been grown under common
decrease in stomatal conductance compared to the garden conditions for the past 30 years under the
positive CH4 emission impact of the equivalent watchful eye of the staff of the Laboratory of Soil
increase in net CO2 assimilation. Science of the Institute of Forest, Siberian Branch of
According to Prinn et al. (1992), one of the major the Russian Academy of Sciences (Menyailo et al.,
means by which methane is removed from the 2002). They determined, in their words, that “soils
atmosphere is via oxidation by methanotrophic under hardwood species (aspen and birch) consumed
bacteria in the aerobic zones of soils, the magnitude CH4 at higher rates than soils under coniferous
of which phenomenon is believed to be equivalent to species and grassland.” Under low soil moisture
the annual input of methane to the atmosphere conditions, for example, the soils under the two
(Watson et al., 1992). This soil sink for methane hardwood species consumed 35 percent more CH4
appears to be ubiquitous, as methane uptake has been than the soils under the four conifers; under high soil
observed in soils of tundra (Whalen and Reeburgh, moisture conditions they consumed 65 percent more.
1990), boreal forests (Whalen et al., 1992), temperate As for the implications of these findings, Pastor and
forests (Steudler et al., 1989; Yavitt et al., 1990), Post (1988) have suggested, in the words of Menyailo
grasslands (Mosier et al., 1997), arable lands (Jensen and Hungate, that “changes in temperature and
and Olsen, 1998), tropical forests (Keller, 1986; precipitation resulting from increasing atmospheric
Singh et al., 1997), and deserts (Striegl et al., 1992), CO2 concentrations will cause a northward migration
with forest soils—especially boreal and temperate of the hardwood-conifer forest border in North
forest upland soils (Whalen and Reeburgh, 1996)— America.” Consequently, if such a shifting of species
appearing to be the most efficient in this regard (Le does indeed occur, it will likely lead to an increase in
Mer and Roger, 2001). methane consumption by soils and a reduction in
In an attempt to learn more about this subject, methane-induced global warming potential, thereby
Tamai et al. (2003) studied methane uptake rates by providing yet another biologically mediated negative
the soils of three Japanese cypress plantations feedback factor that has yet to be incorporated into
composed of 30- to 40-year-old trees. Through all models of global climate change.
seasons of the year, they found that methane was Last, we note that increases in the air’s CO2
absorbed by the soils of all three sites, being concentration will likely lead to a net reduction in
positively correlated with temperature, as has also vegetative isoprene emissions, which, as explained in
been observed in several other studies (Peterjohn et Section 7.7.1. under the heading of Isoprene, should
al., 1994; Dobbie and Smith, 1996); Prieme and also lead to a significant removal of methane from the
Christensen, 1997; Saari et al., 1998). Methane atmosphere. Hence, as the air’s CO2 content—and
absorption was additionally—and even more possibly its temperature—continues to rise, we can
strongly—positively correlated with the C/N ratio of expect to see a significant increase in the rate of
the cypress plantations’ soil organic matter. Based on methane removal from earth’s atmosphere, which
these results, it can be appreciated that any global should help to reduce the potential for further global
warming, CO2-induced or natural, would produce two warming.
biologically mediated negative feedbacks to counter Additional information on this topic, including
the increase in temperature: (1) a warming-induced reviews of newer publications as they become
increase in methane uptake from the atmosphere that available, can be found at http://www.co2science.org/
is experienced by essentially all soils, and (2) an subject/m/methaneextract.php, http://www.co2science
increase in soil methane uptake from the atmosphere .org/subject/m/methaneag.php, and http://www.co2
that is produced by the increase in plant-litter C/N science.org/subject/m/methagnatural.php.

40
 Feedback Factors and Radiative Forcing

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Prinn, R., Cunnold, D., Simmonds, P., Alyea, F., Boldi, R., Supplementary Report to The IPCC Scientific Assessment,
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Roulet, N., Moore, T., Bubier, J. and Lafleur, P. 1992. temperature sensitivity of CH4 oxidation in boreal soils.
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Series B 44: 100-105. Whalen, S.C., Reeburgh, W.S. and Barber, V.A. 1992.
Saari, A., Heiskanen, J., Martikainen, P.J. 1998. Effect of Oxidation of methane in boreal forest soils: a comparison
the organic horizon on methane oxidation and uptake in of seven measures. Biogeochemistry 16: 181-211.
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Ecology 26: 245-255. 1990. CH4 consumption in two temperate forest soils.
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2.6.2. Concentrations
Schutz, H., Holzapfel-Pschorrn, A., Conrad, R. et al. 1989.
A 3-year continuous record on the influence of daytime, In Section 2.6.1, we reported on several real-world
season, and fertilizer treatment on methane emission rates phenomena that can act to reduce or extract methane
from an Italian rice paddy. Journal of Geophysical (CH4) from the atmosphere, most of which feedbacks
Research 94: 16405-16416.
are enhanced as the air’s CO2 concentration rises.
Singh, J.S., Singh, S., Raghubanshi, A.S. et al. 1996. That those feedbacks may already be operating and
Methane flux from rice/wheat agroecosystem as affected having a significant impact on global methane
by crop phenology, fertilization and water level. Plant and concentrations is illustrated in a discussion of
Soil 183: 323-327. observed atmospheric methane trends.
Singh, J.S., Singh, S., Raghubanshi, A.S., Singh, S., We begin with Figure 2.6.2.1, the graph of real-
Kashyap, A.K. and Reddy, V.S. 1997. Effect of soil world data from Simpson et al. (2002), which clearly
nitrogen, carbon and moisture on methane uptake by dry shows a linear-trend decline in CH4 growth rates since
tropical forest soils. Plant and Soil 196: 115-121. the mid-1980s. The authors contended it was
“premature to believe” the rate of growth was falling,
Steudler, P.A., Bowden, R.D., Meillo, J.M. and Aber, J.D. even though their own data bore witness against them.
1989. Influence of nitrogen fertilization on CH4 uptake in
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Striegl, R.G., McConnaughey, T.A., Thorstensen, D.C.,
Weeks, E.P. and Woodward, J.C. 1992. Consumption of
atmospheric methane by desert soils. Nature 357: 145-147.
Tamai, N., Takenaka, C., Ishizuka, S. and Tezuka, T. 2003.
Methane flux and regulatory variables in soils of three
equal-aged Japanese cypress (Chamaecyparis obtusa)
forests in central Japan. Soil Biology & Biochemistry 35: Figure 2.6.2.1. Global tropospheric methane (CH4) growth
633-641. rate vs. time. Adapted from Simpson et al. (2002).

Watson, R.T., Meira Filho, L.G., Sanhueza, E. and Janetos, The first of the 1990s’ large CH4 spikes is widely
A. 1992. Sources and sinks. In: Houghton, J.T., Callander, recognized as having been caused by the eruption of
B.A. and Varney, S.K. (Eds.), Climate Change 1992: The
Mt. Pinatubo in June 1991 (Bekki et al., 1994;

42
 Feedback Factors and Radiative Forcing

Dlugokencky et al., 1996; Lowe et al., 1997), while

the last and most dramatic of the spikes has been
linked to the remarkably strong El Niño of 1997-98
(Dlugokencky et al., 2001). As noted earlier,
Dlugokencky et al. (1998), Francey et al. (1999), and
Lassey et al. (2000) have all suggested that the annual
rate-of-rise of the atmosphere’s CH4 concentration is
indeed declining and leading to a cessation of growth
in the atmospheric burden of methane.
Dlugokencky et al. (2003) revisited the subject
with an additional two years’ of data. Based on
measurements from 43 globally distributed remote
boundary-layer sites that were obtained by means of
the methods of Dlugokencky et al. (1994), they
defined an evenly spaced matrix of surface CH4 mole
fractions as a function of time and latitude, from
which they calculated global CH4 concentration Figure 2.6.2.2. Global methane (CH4) concentration. Adapted
averages for the years 1984-2002. We have extracted from Khalil et al. (2007).
the results from their graphical presentation and re-
plotted them as shown in Figure 2.6.2.2. In viewing this graph, to which we have added
With respect to these data, Dlugokencky et al. the smooth line, it is clear that the rate of methane
note that the globally averaged atmospheric methane increase in the atmosphere has dropped dramatically
concentration “was constant at ~1751 ppb from 1999 over time. As Khalil et al. describe it, “the trend has
through 2002,” which suggests, in their words, that been decreasing for the last two decades until the
“during this 4-year period the global methane budget present when it has reached near zero,” and they go
has been at steady state.” They caution, however, that on to say that “it is questionable whether human
“our understanding is still not sufficient to tell if the activities can cause methane concentrations to
prolonged pause in CH4 increase is temporary or increase greatly in the future.”
permanent.” We agree. However, we feel confident in
suggesting that if the recent pause in CH4 increase is
indeed temporary, it will likely be followed by a
decrease in CH4 concentration, since that would be
the next logical step in the observed progression from
significant, to much smaller, to no yearly CH4
increase.
Khalil et al. (2007) essentially “put the nails in
the coffin” of the idea that rising atmospheric CH4
concentrations pose any further global warming threat
at all. In their study, the three Oregon (USA)
researchers combined two huge atmospheric methane
datasets to produce the unified dataset depicted in
Figure 2.6.2.3.
Figure 2.6.2.3. Global tropospheric methane (CH4)
concentration vs. time. Adapted from Dlugokencky et al.
(2003).

One year later, Schnell and Dlugokencky (2008)

provided an update through 2007 of atmospheric
methane concentrations as determined from weekly
discrete samples collected on a regular basis since
1983 at the NOAA/ESRL Mauna Loa Observatory.

43
 Climate Change Reconsidered

Our adaptation of the graphical rendition of the data of 1999, both networks measured even larger methane
provided by the authors is presented in Figure 2.6.2.4. growth rate increases of approximately 13 ppb per
year, before dropping back to zero at the beginning of
the new millennium. And we note that the most
current displayed data from the two networks indicate
the beginning of what could well be another
downward trend.
Additional reassurance in this regard comes from
the work of Simpson et al. (2002), the findings of
whom we reproduced previously in Figure 2.6.2.1. As
can be seen there, even greater methane growth rates
than those observed by Rigby et al. occurred in still
earlier years. Hence, these periodic one-year-long
upward spikes in methane growth rate must be the
result of some normal phenomenon, the identity of
Figure 2.6.2.4. Trace gas mole fractions of methane (CH4) as
measured at Mauna Loa, Hawaii. Adapted from Schnell and
which has yet to be determined.
Dlugokencky (2008). In light of these finding, it can be appreciated that
over the past decade there have been essentially no
In commenting on the data contained in the increases in methane emissions to the atmosphere,
figure above, Schnell and Dlugokencky state that and that the leveling out of the atmosphere’s methane
“atmospheric CH4 has remained nearly constant since concentration—the exact causes of which, in the
the late 1990s.” This is a most important finding, words of Schnell and Dlugokencky, “are still
because, as they also note, “methane’s contribution to unclear”—has resulted in a one-third reduction in the
anthropogenic radiative forcing, including direct and combined radiative forcing that would otherwise have
indirect effects, is about 0.7 Wm-2, about half that of been produced by a continuation of the prior rates-of-
CO2.” In addition, they say that “the increase in rise of the concentrations of the two atmospheric
methane since the preindustrial era is responsible for greenhouse gases.
approximately one-half the estimated increase in Additional information on this topic, including
background tropospheric O3 during that time.” reviews of newer publications as they become
Most recently, Rigby et al. (2008) analyzed available, can be found at http://www.co2science.org/
methane data obtained from the Advanced Global subject/m/methaneatmos.php.
Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) and the
Australian Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial
Research Organization (CSIRO) over the period References
January 1997 to April 2008. The results of their
Bekki, S., Law, K.S. and Pyle, J.A. 1994. Effect of ozone
analysis indicated that methane concentrations “show
depletion on atmospheric CH4 and CO concentrations.
renewed growth from the end of 2006 or beginning of Nature 371: 595-597.
2007 until the most recent measurements,” with the
record-long range of methane growth rates mostly Dlugokencky, E.J., Dutton, E.G., Novelli, P.C., Tans, P.P.,
hovering about zero, but sometimes dropping five Masarie, K.A., Lantz, K.O. and Madronich, S. 1996.
parts per billion (ppb) per year into the negative Changes in CH4 and CO growth rates after the eruption of
range, while rising near the end of the record to mean Mt. Pinatubo and their link with changes in tropical
tropospheric UV flux. Geophysical Research Letters 23:
positive values of 8 and 12 ppb per year for the two
2761-2764.
measurement networks.
Although some people might be alarmed by these Dlugokencky, E.J., Houweling, S., Bruhwiler, L., Masarie,
findings, as well as by the US, UK, and Australian K.A., Lang, P.M., Miller, J.B. and Tans, P.P. 2003.
researchers’ concluding statement that the methane Atmospheric methane levels off: Temporary pause or a
growth rate during 2007 “was significantly elevated at new steady-state? Geophysical Research Letters 30:
all AGAGE and CSIRO sites simultaneously for the 10.1029/2003GL018126.
first time in almost a decade,” there is also Dlugokencky, E.J., Masarie, K.A., Lang, P.M. and Tans,
reassurance in the recent findings. We note, for P.P. 1998. Continuing decline in the growth rate of the
example, that near the end of 1998 and the beginning atmospheric methane burden. Nature 393: 447-450.

44
 Feedback Factors and Radiative Forcing

Dlugokencky, E.J., Steele, L.P., Lang, P.M. and Masarie, feedback process, whereby warming-induced
K.A. 1994. The growth rate and distribution of atmospheric increases in the emission of dimethyl sulfide (DMS)
methane. Journal of Geophysical Research 99: 17,021- from the world’s oceans tend to counteract any initial
17,043. impetus for warming. The basic tenet of their
Dlugokencky, E.J., Walter, B.P., Masarie, K.A., Lang, hypothesis was that the global radiation balance is
P.M. and Kasischke, E.S. 2001. Measurements of an significantly influenced by the albedo of marine
anomalous global methane increase during 1998. stratus clouds (the greater the cloud albedo, the less
Geophysical Research Letters 28: 499-502. the input of solar radiation to the earth’s surface). The
albedo of these clouds, in turn, is known to be a
Ehhalt, D.H. and Prather, M. 2001. Atmospheric chemistry
and greenhouse gases. In: Climate Change 2001: The function of cloud droplet concentration (the more and
Scientific Basis, Cambridge University Press, New York, smaller the cloud droplets, the greater the cloud
NY, USA, pp. 245-287. albedo and the reflection of solar radiation), which is
dependent upon the availability of cloud condensation
Francey, R.J., Manning, M.R., Allison, C.E., Coram, S.A., nuclei on which the droplets form (the more cloud
Etheridge, D.M., Langenfelds, R.L., Lowe, D.C. and condensation nuclei, the more and smaller the cloud
Steele, L.P. 1999. A history of ð13C in atmospheric CH4
droplets). And in completing the negative feedback
from the Cape Grim Air Archive and Antarctic firn air.
Journal of Geophysical Research 104: 23,631-23,643. loop, Charlson et al. noted that the cloud
condensation nuclei concentration often depends upon
Khalil, M.A.K., Butenhoff, C.L. and Rasmussen, R.A. the flux of biologically produced DMS from the
2007. Atmospheric methane: Trends and cycles of sources world’s oceans (the higher the sea surface
and sinks. Environmental Science & Technology temperature, the greater the sea-to-air flux of DMS).
10.1021/es061791t. Since the publication of Charlson et al.’s initial
Lassey, K.R., Lowe, D.C. and Manning, M.R. 2000. The hypothesis, much empirical evidence has been
trend in atmospheric methane ð13C and implications for gathered in support of its several tenets. One review,
constraints on the global methane budget. Global for example, states that “major links in the feedback
Biogeochemical Cycles 14: 41-49. chain proposed by Charlson et al. (1987) have a
sound physical basis,” and that there is “compelling
Lowe, D.C., Manning, M.R., Brailsford, G.W. and
Bromley, A.M. 1997. The 1991-1992 atmospheric methane observational evidence to suggest that DMS and its
anomaly: Southern hemisphere 13C decrease and growth atmospheric products participate significantly in
rate fluctuations. Geophysical Research Letters 24: 857- processes of climate regulation and reactive
860. atmospheric chemistry in the remote marine boundary
layer of the Southern Hemisphere” (Ayers and Gillett,
Rigby, M., Prinn, R.G., Fraser, P.J., Simmonds, P.G., 2000).
Langenfelds, R.L., Huang, J., Cunnold, D.M., Steele, L.P.,
But just how strong is the negative feedback
Krummel, P.B., Weiss, R.F., O’Doherty, S., Salameh, P.K.,
Wang, H.J., Harth, C.M., Muhle, J. and Porter, L.W. 2008. phenomenon proposed by Charlson et al.? Is it
Renewed growth of atmospheric methane. Geophysical powerful enough to counter the threat of greenhouse
Research Letters 35: 10.1029/2008GL036037. gas-induced global warming? According to the
findings of Sciare et al. (2000), it may well be able to
Schnell, R.C. and Dlugokencky, E. 2008. Methane. In: do just that.
Levinson, D.H. and Lawrimore, J.H. (Eds.) State of the In examining 10 years of DMS data from
Climate in 2007. Special Supplement to the Bulletin of the
Amsterdam Island in the southern Indian Ocean, these
American Meteorological Society 89: S27.
researchers found that a sea surface temperature
Simpson, I.J., Blake, D.R. and Rowland, F.S. 2002. increase of only 1°C was sufficient to increase the
Implications of the recent fluctuations in the growth rate of atmospheric DMS concentration by as much as 50
tropospheric methane. Geophysical Research Letters 29: percent. This finding suggests that the degree of
10.1029/2001GL014521. warming typically predicted to accompany a doubling
of the air’s CO2 content would increase the
atmosphere’s DMS concentration by a factor of three
2.7. Dimethyl Sulfide or more, providing what they call a “very important”
negative feedback that could potentially offset the
More than two decades ago, Charlson et al. (1987) original impetus for warming.
discussed the plausibility of a multi-stage negative

45
 Climate Change Reconsidered

Other research has shown that this same chain of found to be closely related to SST anomalies; and
events can be set in motion by means of phenomena Baboukas et al. say this observation provides even
not discussed in Charlson et al.’s original hypothesis. more support for “the existence of a positive ocean-
Simo and Pedros-Alio (1999), for example, atmosphere feedback on the biogenic sulfur cycle
discovered that the depth of the surface mixing-layer above the Austral Ocean, one of the most important
has a substantial influence on DMS yield in the short DMS sources of the world.”
term, via a number of photo-induced (and thereby In a newer study of this phenomenon, Toole and
mixing-depth mediated) influences on several Siegel (2004) note that it has been shown to operate
complex physiological phenomena, as do longer-term as described above in the 15 percent of the world’s
seasonal variations in vertical mixing, via their oceans “consisting primarily of high latitude,
influence on seasonal planktonic succession scenarios continental shelf, and equatorial upwelling regions,”
and food-web structure. where DMS may be accurately predicted as a function
More directly supportive of Charlson et al.’s of the ratio of the amount of surface chlorophyll
hypothesis was the study of Kouvarakis and derived from satellite observations to the depth of the
Mihalopoulos (2002), who measured seasonal climatological mixed layer, which they refer to as the
variations of gaseous DMS and its oxidation “bloom-forced regime.” For the other 85 percent of
products—non-sea-salt sulfate (nss-SO42-) and the world’s marine waters, they demonstrate that
methanesulfonic acid (MSA)—at a remote coastal modeled surface DMS concentrations are independent
location in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea from May of chlorophyll and are a function of the mixed layer
1997 through October 1999, as well as the diurnal depth alone, which they call the “stress-forced
variation of DMS during two intensive measurement regime.” So how does the warming-induced DMS
campaigns conducted in September 1997. In the negative feedback cycle operate in these waters?
seasonal investigation, DMS concentrations tracked For oligotrophic regimes, Toole and Siegel find
sea surface temperature (SST) almost perfectly, going that “DMS biological production rates are negatively
from a low of 0.87 nmol m-3 in the winter to a high of or insignificantly correlated with phytoplankton and
3.74 nmol m-3 in the summer. Such was also the case bacterial indices for abundance and productivity
in the diurnal studies: DMS concentrations were while more than 82 percent of the variability is
lowest when it was coldest (just before sunrise), rose explained by UVR(325) [ultraviolet radiation at 325
rapidly as it warmed thereafter to about 1100, after nm].” This relationship, in their words, is “consistent
which they dipped slightly and then experienced a with recent laboratory results (e.g., Sunda et al.,
further rise to the time of maximum temperature at 2002),” who demonstrated that intracellular DMS
2000, whereupon a decline in both temperature and concentration and its biological precursors
DMS concentration set in that continued until just (particulate and dissolved dimethylsulfoniopro-
before sunrise. Consequently, because concentrations pionate) “dramatically increase under conditions of
of DMS and its oxidation products (MSA and nss- acute oxidative stress such as exposure to high levels
SO42-) rise dramatically in response to both diurnal of UVR,” which “are a function of mixed layer
and seasonal increases in SST, there is every reason depth.”
to believe that the same negative feedback These results—which Toole and Siegel confirmed
phenomenon would operate in the case of the long- via an analysis of the Dacey et al. (1998) 1992-1994
term warming that could arise from increasing organic sulfur time-series that was sampled in concert
greenhouse gas concentrations, and that it could with the U.S. JGOFS Bermuda Atlantic Time-Series
substantially mute the climatic impacts of those gases. Study (Steinberg et al., 2001)—suggest, in their
Also of note in this regard, Baboukas et al. (2002) words, “the potential of a global change-DMS-climate
report the results of nine years of measurements of feedback.” Specifically, they say that “UVR doses
methanesulfonate (MS-), an exclusive oxidation will increase as a result of observed decreases in
product of DMS, in rainwater at Amsterdam Island. stratospheric ozone and the shoaling of ocean mixed
Their data, too, revealed “a well distinguished layers as a result of global warming (e.g., Boyd and
seasonal variation with higher values in summer, in Doney, 2002),” and that “in response, open-ocean
line with the seasonal variation of its gaseous phytoplankton communities should increase their
precursor (DMS),” which, in their words, “further DMS production and ventilation to the atmosphere,
confirms the findings of Sciare et al. (2000).” In increasing cloud condensing nuclei, and potentially
addition, the MS- anomalies in the rainwater were

46
 Feedback Factors and Radiative Forcing

playing out a coupled global change-DMS-climate climate and atmospheric chemistry. Journal of Sea
feedback.” Research 43: 275-286.
This second DMS-induced negative-feedback Baboukas, E., Sciare, J. and Mihalopoulos, N. 2002.
cycle, which operates over 85 percent of the world’s Interannual variability of methanesulfonate in rainwater at
marine waters and complements the first DMS- Amsterdam Island (Southern Indian Ocean). Atmospheric
induced negative-feedback cycle, which operates over Environment 36: 5131-5139.
the other 15 percent, is another manifestation of the
capacity of earth’s biosphere to regulate its affairs in Boyd, P.W. and Doney, S.C. 2002. Modeling regional
responses by marine pelagic ecosystems to global climate
such a way as to maintain climatic conditions over the
change. Geophysical Research Letters 29:
vast majority of the planet’s surface within bounds 10.1029/2001GL014130.
conducive to the continued existence of life, in all its
variety and richness. In addition, it has been Charlson, R.J., Lovelock, J.E., Andrea, M.O. and Warren,
suggested that a DMS-induced negative climate S.G. 1987. Oceanic phytoplankton, atmospheric sulfur,
feedback phenomenon also operates over the cloud albedo and climate. Nature 326: 655-661.
terrestrial surface of the globe, where the Dacey, J.W.H., Howse, F.A., Michaels, A.F. and
volatilization of reduced sulfur gases from soils may Wakeham, S.G. 1998. Temporal variability of
be just as important as marine DMS emissions in dimethylsulfide and dimethylsulfoniopropionate in the
enhancing cloud albedo (Idso, 1990). Sargasso Sea. Deep Sea Research 45: 2085-2104.
On the basis of experiments that showed soil
Idso, S.B. 1990. A role for soil microbes in moderating the
DMS emissions to be positively correlated with soil
carbon dioxide greenhouse effect? Soil Science 149: 179-
organic matter content, for example, and noting that 180.
additions of organic matter to a soil tend to increase
the amount of sulfur gases emitted therefrom, Idso Kouvarakis, G. and Mihalopoulos, N. 2002. Seasonal
(1990) hypothesized that because atmospheric CO2 is variation of dimethylsulfide in the gas phase and of
an effective aerial fertilizer, augmenting its methanesulfonate and non-sea-salt sulfate in the aerosols
atmospheric concentration and thereby increasing phase in the Eastern Mediterranean atmosphere.
Atmospheric Environment 36: 929-938.
vegetative inputs of organic matter to earth’s soils
should also produce an impetus for cooling, even in Sciare, J., Mihalopoulos, N. and Dentener, F.J. 2000.
the absence of surface warming. Interannual variability of atmospheric dimethylsulfide in
Nevertheless, and in spite of the overwhelming the southern Indian Ocean. Journal of Geophysical
empirical evidence for both land- and ocean-based Research 105: 26,369-26,377.
DMS-driven negative feedbacks to global warming, Simo, R. and Pedros-Alio, C. 1999. Role of vertical mixing
the effects of these processes have not been fully in controlling the oceanic production of dimethyl sulphide.
incorporated into today’s state-of-the-art climate Nature 402: 396-399.
models. Hence, the warming they predict in response
to future anthropogenic CO2 emissions must be Steinberg, D.K., Carlson, C.A., Bates, N.R., Johnson, R.J.,
considerably larger than what could actually occur in Michaels, A.F. and Knap, A.H. 2001. Overview of the US
JGOFS Bermuda Atlantic Time-series Study (BATS): a
the real world. It is very possible these biologically
decade-scale look at ocean biology and biogeochemistry.
driven phenomena could entirely compensate for the Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in
warming influence of all greenhouse gas emissions Oceanography 48: 1405-1447.
experienced to date, as well as all those anticipated to
occur in the future. Sunda, W., Kieber, D.J., Kiene, R.P. and Huntsman, S.
Additional information on this topic, including 2002. An antioxidant function for DMSP and DMS in
reviews of newer publications as they become marine algae. Nature 418: 317-320.
available, can be found at http://www.co2science Toole, D.A. and Siegel, D.A. 2004. Light-driven cycling of
.org/subject/d/dms.php. dimethylsulfide (DMS) in the Sargasso Sea: Closing the
loop. Geophysical Research Letters 31:
10.1029/2004GL019581.
References

Ayers, G.P. and Gillett, R.W. 2000. DMS and its oxidation
products in the remote marine atmosphere: implications for

47
 Climate Change Reconsidered

2.8. Aerosols These latter results are similar to those obtained

earlier by Wild (1999), who used a comprehensive set
2.8.1. Total Aerosol Effect of collocated surface and satellite observations to
calculate the amount of solar radiation absorbed in the
The IPCC estimates the net effect of all aerosols is to atmosphere over equatorial Africa and compared the
produce a cooling effect, with a total direct radiative results with the predictions of three general
forcing of -0.5 Wm-2 and an additional indirect cloud circulation models of the atmosphere. This work
albedo forcing of -0.7 Wm-2 (IPCC, 2007-I, p. 4). revealed that the climate models did not properly
However, the scientific literature indicates these account for spatial and temporal variations in
estimates are too low. Many studies suggest the atmospheric aerosol concentrations, leading them to
radiative forcing of aerosols may be as large as, or predict regional and seasonal values of solar radiation
larger than, the radiative forcing due to atmospheric absorption in the atmosphere with underestimation
CO2. biases of up to 30 Wm-2. By way of comparison, as
Vogelmann et al. (2003) report that “mineral noted by Vogelmann et al., the globally averaged
aerosols have complex, highly varied optical surface IR forcing caused by greenhouse gas
properties that, for equal loadings, can cause increases since pre-industrial times is 1 to 2 Wm-2.
differences in the surface IR flux between 7 and 25 Aerosol uncertainties and the problems they
Wm-2 (Sokolik et al., 1998),” and “only a few large- generate figure prominently in a study by Anderson et
scale climate models currently consider aerosol IR al. (2003), who note there are two different ways by
[infrared] effects (e.g., Tegen et al., 1996; Jacobson, which the aerosol forcing of climate may be
2001) despite their potentially large forcing.” In an computed. The first is forward calculation, which is
attempt to persuade climate modelers to rectify this based, in their words, on “knowledge of the pertinent
situation, they used high-resolution spectra to obtain aerosol physics and chemistry.” The second approach
the IR radiative forcing at the earth’s surface for is inverse calculation, based on “the total forcing
aerosols encountered in the outflow from northeastern required to match climate model simulations with
Asia, based on measurements made by the Marine- observed temperature changes.”
Atmospheric Emitted Radiance Interferometer from The first approach utilizes known physical and
the NOAA Ship Ronald H. Brown during the Aerosol chemical laws and assumes nothing about the
Characterization Experiment-Asia. As a result of this outcome of the calculation. The second approach, in
work, the scientists determined that “daytime surface considerable contrast, is based on matching residuals,
IR forcings are often a few Wm-2 and can reach where the aerosol forcing is computed from what is
almost 10 Wm-2 for large aerosol loadings.” These required to match the calculated change in
values, in their words, “are comparable to or larger temperature with the observed change over some
than the 1 to 2 Wm-2 change in the globally averaged period of time. Consequently, in the words of
surface IR forcing caused by greenhouse gas Anderson et al., “to the extent that climate models
increases since pre-industrial times” and “highlight rely on the results of inverse calculations, the
the importance of aerosol IR forcing which should be possibility of circular reasoning arises.”
included in climate model simulations.” So which approach do climate models typically
Chou et al. (2002) analyzed aerosol optical employ? “Unfortunately,” according to Anderson et
properties retrieved from the satellite-mounted Sea- al., “virtually all climate model studies that have
viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) and included anthropogenic aerosol forcing as a driver of
used them in conjunction with a radiative transfer climate change have used only aerosol forcing values
model of the planet’s atmosphere to calculate the that are consistent with the inverse approach.”
climatic effects of aerosols over earth’s major oceans. How significant is this choice? Anderson et al.
In general, this effort revealed that “aerosols reduce report that the negative forcing of anthropogenic
the annual-mean net downward solar flux by 5.4 Wm- aerosols derived by forward calculation is
2
at the top of the atmosphere, and by 5.9 Wm-2 at the “considerably greater” than that derived by inverse
surface.” During the large Indonesian fires of calculation; so much so, in fact, that if forward
September-December 1997, however, the radiative calculation is employed, the results “differ greatly”
impetus for cooling at the top of the atmosphere was and “even the sign of the total forcing is in question,”
more than 10 Wm-2, while it was more than 25 Wm-2 which implies that “natural variability (that is,
at the surface of the sea in the vicinity of Indonesia. variability not forced by anthropogenic emissions) is

48
 Feedback Factors and Radiative Forcing

much larger than climate models currently indicate.” plankton and bacteria are excellent ice nuclei,” and
The bottom line, in the words of Anderson et al., is “one can easily imagine the [IR] influence on cloud
that “inferences about the causes of surface warming cover, climate forcing and feedback and global
over the industrial period and about climate precipitation distribution.”
sensitivity may therefore be in error.” In describing their own measurements and those
Schwartz (2004) also addressed the subject of of others, which they say “have now been carried out
uncertainty as it applies to the role of aerosols in at several geographical locations covering all seasons
climate models. Noting that the National Research of the year and many characteristic environments,”
Council (1979) concluded that “climate sensitivity [to Jaenicke et al. report that “by number and volume, the
CO2 doubling] is likely to be in the range 1.5-4.5°C” PBAP fraction is ~20 percent of the total aerosol, and
and that “remarkably, despite some two decades of appears rather constant during the year.” In addition,
intervening work, neither the central value nor the they write that “the impression prevails that the
uncertainty range has changed,” Schwartz opined that biological material, whether produced directly or shed
this continuing uncertainty “precludes meaningful during the seasons, sits on surfaces, ready to be lifted
model evaluation by comparison with observed global again in resuspension.”
temperature change or empirical determination of In a brief summation of their findings, the
climate sensitivity,” and that it “raises questions German researchers say “the overall conclusion can
regarding claims of having reproduced observed only be that PBAPs are a major fraction of
large-scale changes in surface temperature over the atmospheric aerosols, and are comparable to sea salt
20th century.” over the oceans and mineral particles over the
Schwartz thus contends that climate model continents,” and, consequently, that “the biosphere
predictions of CO2-induced global warming “are must be a major source for directly injected biological
limited at present by uncertainty in radiative forcing particles, and those particles should be taken into
of climate change over the industrial period, which is account in understanding and modeling atmospheric
dominated by uncertainty in forcing by aerosols,” and processes.” However, they note that “the IPCC-
that if this situation is not improved, “it is likely that Report of 2007 does not even mention these
in another 20 years it will still not be possible to particles,” and that “this disregard of the biological
specify the climate sensitivity with [an] uncertainty particles requires a new attitude.”
range appreciably narrower than it is at present.” We agree. Over much of the planet’s surface, the
Indeed, he says “the need for reducing the uncertainty radiative cooling influence of atmospheric aerosols
from its present estimated value by at least a factor of (many of which are produced by anthropogenic
3 and perhaps a factor of 10 or more seems activities) must prevail, suggesting a probable net
inescapable if the uncertainty in climate sensitivity is anthropogenic-induced climatic signal that must be
to be reduced to an extent where it becomes useful for very close to zero and incapable of producing what
formulating policy to deal with global change,” which the IPCC refers to as the “unprecedented” warming of
surely suggests that even the best climate models of the twentieth century. Either the air temperature
the day are wholly inadequate for this purpose. record they rely on is in error or the warming, if real,
Coming to much the same conclusion was the is due to something other than anthropogenic CO2
study of Jaenicke et al. (2007), who reviewed the emissions.
status of research being conducted on biological Our review of important aerosol studies continues
materials in the atmosphere, which they denominate below with a separate discussion of four important
primary biological atmospheric particles or PBAPs. aerosol categories: (1) Biological (Aquatic), (2)
Originally, these particles were restricted to culture- Biological (Terrestrial), (3) Non-Biological
forming units, including pollen, bacteria, mold and (Anthropogenic), and (4) Non-Biological (Natural).
viruses, but they also include fragments of living and Additional information on this topic, including
dead organisms and plant debris, human and animal reviews of aerosols not discussed here, can be found
epithelial cells, broken hair filaments, parts of insects, at http://www.co2science.org/subject/a/subject_a. php
shed feather fractions, etc., which they lump together under the heading Aerosols.
under the category of “dead biological matter.”
With respect to the meteorological and climatic
relevance of these particles, they note that many
PBAPs, including “decaying vegetation, marine

49
 Climate Change Reconsidered

References studies, that links biology with climate change. The

process begins with an initial impetus for warming
Anderson, T.L., Charlson, R.J., Schwartz, S.E., Knutti, R., that stimulates primary production in marine
Boucher, O., Rodhe, H. and Heintzenberg, J. 2003. Climate phytoplankton. This enhanced process leads to the
forcing by aerosols—a hazy picture. Science 300: 1103- production of more copious quantities of
1104. dimethylsulphoniopropionate, which leads in turn to
Chou, M-D., Chan, P-K. and Wang, M. 2002. Aerosol the evolution of greater amounts of dimethyl
radiative forcing derived from SeaWiFS-retrieved aerosol sulphide, or DMS, in the surface waters of the world’s
optical properties. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 59: oceans. Larger quantities of DMS diffuse into the
748-757. atmosphere, where the gas is oxidized, leading to the
creation of greater amounts of acidic aerosols that
IPCC. 2007-I. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science
Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth function as cloud condensation nuclei. This
Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on phenomenon then leads to the creation of more and
Climate Change. Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., brighter clouds that reflect more incoming solar
Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K.B., Tignor, M. and H.L. radiation back to space, thereby providing a cooling
Miller. (Eds.) Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, influence that counters the initial impetus for
UK. warming.
Several recent studies have shed additional light
Jacobson, M.Z. 2001. Global direct radiative forcing due to
multicomponent anthropogenic and natural aerosols. on this complex hypothesis. Simo and Pedros-Alio
Journal of Geophysical Research 106: 1551-1568. (1999) used satellite imagery and in situ experiments
to study the production of DMS by enzymatic
Jaenicke, R., Matthias-Maser, S. and Gruber, S. 2007. cleavage of dimethylsulphoniopropionate in the North
Omnipresence of biological material in the atmosphere. Atlantic Ocean about 400 km south of Iceland,
Environmental Chemistry 4: 217-220. finding that the depth of the surface mixing-layer has
National Research Council. 1979. Carbon Dioxide and a substantial influence on DMS yield in the short
Climate: A Scientific Assessment. National Academy of term, as do seasonal variations in vertical mixing in
Sciences, Washington, DC, USA. the longer term, which observations led them to
conclude that “climate-controlled mixing controls
Schwartz, S.E. 2004. Uncertainty requirements in radiative
DMS production over vast regions of the ocean.”
forcing of climate. Journal of the Air & Waste
Management Association 54: 1351-1359. Hopke et al. (1999) analyzed weekly
concentrations of 24 different airborne particulates
Sokolik, I.N., Toon, O.B. and Bergstrom, R.W. 1998. measured at the northernmost manned site in the
Modeling the radiative characteristics of airborne mineral world—Alert, Northwest Territories, Canada—from
aerosols at infrared wavelengths. Journal of Geophysical 1980 to 1991. They found concentrations of biogenic
Research 103: 8813-8826. sulfur, including sulfate and methane sulfonate, were
Tegen, I., Lacis, A.A. and Fung, I. 1996. The influence on low in winter but high in summer, and that the year-
climate forcing of mineral aerosols from disturbed soils. to-year variability in the strength of the biogenic
Nature 380: 419-422. sulfur signal was strongly correlated with the mean
temperature of the Northern Hemisphere. “This
Vogelmann, A.M., Flatau, P.J., Szczodrak, M., Markowicz,
result,” the authors say, “suggests that as the
K.M. and Minnett, P.J. 2003. Geophysical Research Letters
30: 10.1029/2002GL016829. temperature rises, there is increased biogenic
production of the reduced sulfur precursor
Wild, M. 1999. Discrepancies between model-calculated compounds that are oxidized in the atmosphere to
and observed shortwave atmospheric absorption in areas sulfate and methane sulfonate and could be evidence
with high aerosol loadings. Journal of Geophysical of a negative feedback mechanism in the global
Research 104: 27,361-27,371. climate system.”
Ayers and Gillett (2000) summarized relevant
empirical evidence collected at Cape Grim, Tasmania,
2.8.2. Biological (Aquatic) along with pertinent evidence reported in many peer-
reviewed scientific papers on this subject. They
Charlson et al. (1987) described a multi-stage conclude that “major links in the feedback chain
negative feedback phenomenon, several components proposed by Charlson et al. (1987) have a sound
of which have been verified by subsequent scientific

50
 Feedback Factors and Radiative Forcing

physical basis.” More specifically, they noted there is study and a newer study by Toole and Siegel (2004),
“compelling observational evidence to suggest that see Section 2.7 of this report.
DMS and its atmospheric products participate As time passes, more studies confirm the
significantly in processes of climate regulation and Charlson et al. hypothesis that as marine
reactive atmospheric chemistry in the remote marine phytoplankton are exposed to rising temperatures,
boundary layer of the Southern Hemisphere.” they give off greater quantities of gases that lead to
Sciare et al. (2000) made continuous the production of greater quantities of cloud
measurements of atmospheric DMS concentration condensation nuclei, which create more and brighter
over the 10-year period 1990-1999 at Amsterdam clouds, that reflect more incoming solar radiation
Island in the southern Indian Ocean. Their study back to space, and thereby either reverse, stop, or
revealed “a clear seasonal variation with a factor of slow the warming that initiated this negative feedback
20 in amplitude between its maximum in January phenomenon. The normal hour-to hour, day-to-day,
(austral summer) and minimum in July-August and season-to-season behaviors of the
(austral winter).” In addition, they found DMS phytoplanktonic inhabitants of earth’s marine
anomalies to be “closely related to sea surface ecosystems seem to be effectively combating extreme
temperature anomalies, clearly indicating a link environmental temperature changes.
between DMS and climate changes.” They found that Additional information on this topic, including
a temperature increase of only 1°C was sufficient to reviews of newer publications as they become
increase the atmospheric DMS concentration by as available, can be found at http://www.co2science.org/
much as 50 percent on a monthly basis, noting that subject/a/aerosolsbioaqua.php.
“this is the first time that a direct link between SSTs
[sea surface temperatures] and atmospheric DMS is
established for a large oceanic area.” References
Another pertinent study was conducted by
Kouvarakis and Mihalopoulos (2002), who Ayers, G.P. and Gillett, R.W. 2000. DMS and its oxidation
investigated the seasonal variations of gaseous DMS products in the remote marine atmosphere: implications for
and its oxidation products—non-sea-salt sulfate (nss- climate and atmospheric chemistry. Journal of Sea
Research 43: 275-286.
SO42-) and methanesulfonic acid (MSA)—at a remote
coastal location in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea Baboukas, E., Sciare, J. and Mihalopoulos, N. 2002.
from May 1997 through October 1999, as well as the Interannual variability of methanesulfonate in rainwater at
diurnal variation of DMS during two intensive Amsterdam Island (Southern Indian Ocean). Atmospheric
measurement campaigns in September 1997. In the Environment 36: 5131-5139
seasonal investigation, DMS concentrations tracked Charlson, R.J., Lovelock, J.E., Andrea, M.O. and Warren,
sea surface temperature (SST) almost perfectly, going S.G. 1987. Oceanic phytoplankton, atmospheric sulfur,
from a low of 0.87 nmol m-3 in the winter to a high of cloud albedo and climate. Nature 326: 655-661.
3.74 nmol m-3 in the summer. Such was also the case
in the diurnal study: DMS concentrations were lowest Hopke, P.K., Xie, Y. and Paatero, P. 1999. Mixed
just before sunrise, rose rapidly thereafter to about multiway analysis of airborne particle composition data.
Journal of Chemometrics 13: 343-352.
1100, were followed by a little dip and then a further
rise to 2000, whereupon a decline set in that Kouvarakis, G. and Mihalopoulos, N. 2002. Seasonal
continued until just before sunrise. MSA variation of dimethylsulfide in the gas phase and of
concentrations exhibited a similar seasonal variation methanesulfonate and non-sea-salt sulfate in the aerosols
to that displayed by DMS, ranging from a wintertime phase in the Eastern Mediterranean atmosphere.
low of 0.04 nmol m-3 to a summertime high of 0.99 Atmospheric Environment 36: 929-938.
nmol m-3. The same was also true of aerosol nss-SO42- O’Dowd, C.D., Facchini, M.C., Cavalli, F., Ceburnis, D.,
which varied from 0.6 to 123.9 nmol m-3 in going Mircea, M., Decesari, S., Fuzzi, S., Yoon, Y.J. and Putaud,
from winter to summer. J.-P. 2004. Biogenically driven organic contribution to
A related study of methanesulfonate (MS-) in marine aerosol. Nature 431: 676-680.
rainwater at Amsterdam Island, by Baboukas et al.
Sciare, J., Mihalopoulos, N. and Dentener, F.J. 2000.
(2002), in the authors’ words, “further confirms the
Interannual variability of atmospheric dimethylsulfide in
findings of Sciare et al. (2000).” For more about that the southern Indian Ocean. Journal of Geophysical
Research 105: 26,369-26,377.

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 Climate Change Reconsidered

Simo, R. and Pedros-Alio, C. 1999. Role of vertical mixing that “global warming over the past 30 years could
in controlling the oceanic production of dimethyl sulphide. have increased the BVOC global emissions by
Nature 402: 396-399. approximately 10 percent, and a further 2-3°C rise in
Toole, D.A. and Siegel, D.A. 2004. Light-driven cycling of the mean global temperature ... could increase BVOC
dimethylsulfide (DMS) in the Sargasso Sea: Closing the global emissions by an additional 30-45 percent.”
loop. Geophysical Research Letters 31: 10.1029/2004 There may also be other phenomena that favor
GL019581. earth’s plants within this context. Peñuelas and Llusia
note that “the increased release of nitrogen into the
biosphere by man probably also enhances BVOC
emissions by increasing the level of carbon fixation
2.8.3. Biological (Terrestrial) and the activity of the responsible enzymes (Litvak et
al., 1996).” The conversion of abandoned agricultural
Just as marine phytoplankton respond to rising lands to forests and the implementation of planned
temperatures by giving off gases that ultimately lead reforestation projects should help the rest of the
to less global warming, so too do terrestrial plants. biosphere too, since Peñuelas and Llusia report that
What is more, earth’s terrestrial plants have a additional numbers of “Populus, Eucalyptus or Pinus,
tendency to operate in this manner more effectively as which are major emitters, might greatly increase
the air’s CO2 content rises. BVOC emissions.”
A good introduction to this subject is provided by Most intriguing of all, perhaps, is how increased
the review paper of Peñuelas and Llusia (2003), who BVOC emissions might impact climate change.
say biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) Peñuelas and Llusia say that “BVOCs generate large
constitute “one of nature’s biodiversity treasures.” quantities of organic aerosols that could affect climate
Comprised of isoprene, terpenes, alkanes, alkenes, significantly by forming cloud condensation nuclei.”
alcohols, esters, carbonyls, and acids, this diverse As a result, they say “there should be a net cooling of
group of substances is produced by a variety of the Earth’s surface during the day because of
processes occurring in many plant tissues. Some of radiation interception,” noting that Shallcross and
the functions of these substances, according to the Monks (2000) “have suggested that one of the reasons
two scientists, include acting as “deterrents against plants emit the aerosol isoprene might be to cool the
pathogens and herbivores, or to aid wound sealing surroundings in addition to any physiological or
after damage (Pichersky and Gershenzon, 2002).” evaporative effects that might cool the plant directly.”
They also say BVOCs provide a means “to attract Not all experiments have reported increases in
pollinators and herbivore predators, and to plant BVOC emissions with increasing atmospheric
communicate with other plants and organisms CO2 concentrations, one example being Constable et
(Peñuelas et al., 1995; Shulaev et al., 1997).” al. (1999), who found no effect of elevated CO2 on
Of particular importance within the context of monoterpene emissions from Ponderosa pine and
global climate change, in the opinion of Peñuelas and Douglas fir trees. Some studies, in fact, have reported
Llusia, is the growing realization that “isoprene and decreases in BVOC emissions, such as those of
monoterpenes, which constitute a major fraction of Vuorinen et al. (2004), who worked with cabbage
BVOCs, might confer protection against high plants, and Loreto et al. (2001), who studied
temperatures” by acting “as scavengers of reactive monoterpene emissions from oak seedlings.
oxygen species produced [within plants] under high On the other hand, Staudt et al. (2001) observed
temperatures.” If this is indeed the case, it can be CO2-induced increases in BVOC emissions in the
appreciated that with respect to the claimed ill effects identical species of oak studied by Vuorinen et al. An
of CO2-induced global warming on earth’s vegetation, explanation for this wide range of results comes from
there are likely to be two strong ameliorative Baraldi et al. (2004), who—after exposing sections of
phenomena that act to protect the planet’s plants: (1) a southern California chaparral ecosystem to
the aerial fertilization effect of atmospheric CO2 atmospheric CO2 concentrations ranging from 250 to
enrichment, which is typically more strongly 750 ppm in 100-ppm increments for a period of four
expressed at higher temperatures, and (2) the years—concluded that “BVOC emission can remain
tendency for rising air temperatures and CO2 nearly constant as rising CO2 reduces emission per
concentrations to spur the production of higher unit leaf area while stimulating biomass growth and
concentrations of heat-stress-reducing BVOCs. With leaf area per unit ground area.” In most of the cases
respect to temperature, Peñuelas and Llusia calculate

52
 Feedback Factors and Radiative Forcing

investigated, however, BVOC emissions tend to A number of studies suggest that the phenomena
increase with atmospheric CO2 enrichment; and the discussed in the preceding paragraphs do indeed
increases are often large. operate in the real world. Kavouras et al. (1998), for
Jasoni et al. (2003) who grew onions from seed example, measured a number of atmospheric gases
for 30 days in individual cylindrical flow-through and particles in a eucalyptus forest in Portugal and
growth chambers under controlled environmental analyzed their observations to see if there was any
conditions at atmospheric CO2 concentrations of evidence of biologically produced gases being
either 400 or 1,000 ppm. At the end of the study, the converted to particles that could function as cloud
plants in the CO2-enriched chambers had 40 percent condensation nuclei. Their work demonstrated that
more biomass than the plants grown in ambient air, certain hydrocarbons emitted by vegetation (isoprene
and their photosynthetic rates were 22 percent greater. and terpenes, in particular) do indeed experience gas-
In addition, the CO2-enriched plants exhibited 17-fold to-particle transformations. In fact, aerosols (or
and 38-fold increases in emissions of the BVOC biosols) produced from two of these organic acids
hydrocarbons 2-undecanone and 2-tridecanone, (cis- and trans-pinonic acid) comprised as much as 40
respectively, which Jasoni et al. make a point of percent of the fine particle atmospheric mass during
noting, “confer insect resistance against a major daytime hours.
agricultural pest, spider mites.” More generally, they A similar study was conducted by O’Dowd et al.
conclude that “plants grown under elevated CO2 will (2002), who measured aerosol electrical-mobility
accumulate excess carbon and that at least a portion size-distributions before and during the initial stage of
of this excess carbon is funneled into an increased an atmospheric nucleation event over a boreal forest
production of BVOCs,” which have many positive in Finland. Simultaneously, organic vapor growth rate
implications in the realms of both biology and measurements were made of particles that nucleated
climate, as noted above. into organic cloud-droplets in the flow-tube cloud
Raisanen et al. (2008) conducted an experiment chamber of a modified condensation-particle counter.
designed to see to what extent a doubling of the air’s This work demonstrated, in their words, that newly
CO2 content and a 2°—6°C increase in air formed aerosol particles over forested areas “are
temperature might impact the emission of composed primarily of organic species, such as cis-
monoterpenes from 20-year-old Scots pine (Pinus pinonic acid and pinonic acid, produced by oxidation
sylvestris L.) seedlings. They studied the two of terpenes in organic vapours released from the
phenomena (and their interaction) within closed-top canopy.”
chambers built on a naturally seeded stand of the trees Commenting on this finding, O’Dowd et al. note
in eastern Finland that had been exposed to the four that “aerosol particles produced over forested areas
treatments—ambient CO2 and ambient temperature, may affect climate by acting as nuclei for cloud
ambient temperature and elevated CO2, ambient CO2 condensation,” but they say there remain numerous
and elevated temperature, elevated temperature and uncertainties involving complex feedback processes
elevated CO2—for the prior five years. “that must be determined if we are to predict future
Over the five-month growing season of May- changes in global climate.”
September, the three Finnish researchers found that Shifting from trees to a much smaller plant, Kuhn
total monoterpene emissions in the elevated-CO2-only and Kesselmeier (2000) collected lichens from an
treatment were 5 percent greater than those in the open oak woodland in central California, USA, and
ambient CO2, ambient temperature treatment, and that studied their uptake of carbonyl sulfide (OCS) in a
emissions in the elevated-temperature-only treatment dynamic cuvette system under controlled conditions
were 9 percent less than those in ambient air. In the in the laboratory. When optimally hydrated, OCS was
presence of both elevated CO2 and elevated absorbed from the atmosphere by the lichens at a rate
temperature, however, there was an increase of fully that gradually doubled as air temperature rose from
126 percent in the total amount of monoterpenes approximately 3° to 25°C, whereupon the rate of OCS
emitted over the growing season, which led the absorption dropped precipitously, reaching a value of
authors to conclude, “the amount of monoterpenes zero at 35°C. Why is this significant?
released by Scots pines into the atmosphere during a OCS is the most stable and abundant reduced
growing season will increase substantially in the sulfur gas in the atmosphere and is thus a major
predicted future climate.” player in determining earth’s radiation budget. After
making its way into the stratosphere, it can be photo-

53
 Climate Change Reconsidered

dissociated, as well as oxidized, to form SO2, which is The significance of this process is described and
typically converted to sulfate aerosol particles that are documented at some length in Section 2.3 of this
highly reflective of incoming solar radiation and, report. For example, Roderick et al. concluded that
therefore, have the capacity to significantly cool the the Mt. Pinatubo eruption—a unique natural
earth as more and more of them collect above the experiment to evaluate the overall climatic sensitivity
tropopause. This being the case, biologically of the planet—may well have resulted in the removal
modulated COS concentrations may play a role in of an extra 2.5 Gt of carbon from the atmosphere due
keeping earth’s surface air temperature within bounds to its diffuse-light-enhancing stimulation of terrestrial
conducive to the continued existence of life, exactly photosynthesis in the year following the eruption.
what is implied by the observations of Kuhn and Additional real-world evidence for the existence of
Kesselmeier. this phenomenon was provided by Gu et al. (2003),
Once air temperature rises above 25°C, the rate of Law et al. (2002), Farquhar and Roderick (2003),
removal of OCS from the air by this particular species Reichenau and Esser (2003), and Niyogi et al. (2004).
of lichen declines dramatically. When this happens, One final beneficial effect of CO2-induced
more OCS remains in the air, which increases the increases in BVOC emissions is the propensity of
potential for more OCS to make its way into the BVOCs to destroy tropospheric ozone, as documented
stratosphere, where it can be converted into sulfate by Goldstein et al. (2004). Earth’s vegetation is
aerosol particles that can reflect more incoming solar responsible for the production of vast amounts of
radiation back to space and thereby cool the earth. ozone (O3) (Chameides et al., 1988; Harley et al.,
Since the consumption of OCS by lichens is under the 1999), but it is also responsible for destroying a lot of
physiological control of carbonic anhydrase—which O3. With respect to the latter phenomenon, Goldstein
is the key enzyme for OCS uptake in all higher plants, et al. mention three major routes by which O3 exits
algae, and soil organisms—we could expect this the air near the earth’s surface: leaf stomatal uptake,
phenomenon to be generally operative throughout surface deposition, and within-canopy gas-phase
much of the plant kingdom. This biological chemical reactions with BVOCs.
“thermostat” may well be powerful enough to define The first of these exit routes, according to
an upper limit above which the surface air Goldstein et al., accounts for 30 percent to 90 percent
temperature of the planet may be restricted from of total ecosystem O3 uptake from the atmosphere
rising, even when changes in other forcing factors, (that is, O3 destruction), while the remainder has
such as greenhouse gases, produce an impetus for it to typically been attributed to deposition on non-
do so. For more about OCS, see Section 2.2 of this stomatal surfaces. However, they note that “Kurpius
report. and Goldstein (2003) recently showed that the non-
Although BVOCs emitted from terrestrial plants stomatal flux [from the atmosphere to oblivion]
both small and large are important to earth’s climate, increased exponentially as a function of temperature
trees tend to dominate in this regard. Recent research at a coniferous forest site,” and that “the exponential
suggests yet another way in which their response to increase with temperature was consistent with the
atmospheric CO2 enrichment may provide an temperature dependence of monoterpene emissions
effective counterbalance to the greenhouse properties from the same ecosystem, suggesting O3 was lost via
of CO2. The phenomenon begins with the propensity gas phase reactions with biogenically emitted
for CO2-induced increases in BVOCs, together with terpenes before they could escape the forest canopy.”
the cloud particles they spawn, to enhance the amount In a study designed to take the next step towards
of diffuse solar radiation reaching the earth’s surface turning the implication of this observation into
(Suraqui et al., 1974; Abakumova et al., 1996), which something stronger than a mere suggestion, Schade
is followed by the ability of enhanced diffuse lighting and Goldstein (2003) demonstrated that forest
to reduce the volume of shade within vegetative thinning dramatically enhances monoterpene
canopies (Roderick et al., 2001), which is followed by emissions. In the current study, Goldstein et al. take
the tendency for less internal canopy shading to another important step towards clarifying the issue by
enhance whole-canopy photosynthesis (Healey et al., measuring the effect of forest thinning on O3
1998), which finally produces the end result: a greater destruction in an attempt to see if it is enhanced in
photosynthetic extraction of CO2 from the air and the parallel fashion to the thinning-induced increase in
subsequent reduction of the strength of the monoterpene emissions.
atmosphere’s greenhouse effect.

54
 Feedback Factors and Radiative Forcing

In a ponderosa pine plantation in the Sierra In conclusion, a wealth of real-world evidence is

Nevada Mountains of California, USA, a beginning to suggest that both rising air temperatures
management procedure to improve forest health and and CO2 concentrations significantly increase
optimize tree growth was initiated on May 11, 2000 desirable vegetative BVOC emissions, particularly
and continued through June 15, 2000. This procedure from trees, which constitute the most prominent
involved the use of a masticator to mechanically photosynthetic force on the planet, and that this
“chew up” smaller unwanted trees and leave their phenomenon has a large number of extremely
debris on site, which reduced plantation green leaf important and highly beneficial biospheric
biomass by just over half. Simultaneously, consequences.
monoterpene mixing ratios and fluxes were measured These findings further demonstrate that the
hourly within the plantation canopy, while total biology of the earth influences the climate of the
ecosystem O3 destruction was “partitioned to earth. Specifically, they reveal a direct connection
differentiate loss due to gas-phase chemistry from between the metabolic activity of trees and the
stomatal uptake and deposition.” propensity for the atmosphere to produce clouds, the
Goldstein et al. report that both the destruction of metabolic activity of lichens and the presence of
ozone due to gas-phase chemistry and emissions of sulfate aerosol particles in the atmosphere that reflect
monoterpenes increased dramatically with the onset incoming solar radiation, and the increased presence
of thinning, and that these phenomena continued in of BVOCs caused by rising CO2 and an increase in
phase with each other thereafter. Hence, they “infer diffuse solar radiation, which leads to increased
that the massive increase of O3 flux [from the photosynthetic extraction of CO2 from the air. In each
atmosphere to oblivion] during and following case, the relationship is one that is self-protecting of
mastication is driven by loss of O3 through chemical the biosphere. This being the case, we wonder how
reactions with unmeasured terpenes or closely related anyone can presume to decide what should or should
BVOCs whose emissions were enhanced due to not be done about anthropogenic CO2 emissions.
wounding [by the masticator].” Indeed, they say that Additional information on this topic, including
“considered together, these observations provide a reviews of newer publications as they become
conclusive picture that the chemical loss of O3 is due available, can be found at http://www.co2science.org/
to reactions with BVOCs emitted in a similar manner subject/a/aerosolsterr.php.
as terpenes,” and that “we can conceive no other
possible explanation for this behavior other than
chemical O3 destruction in and above the forest References
canopy by reactions with BVOCs.”
Goldstein et al. say their results “suggest that Abakumova, G.M., Feigelson, E.M., Russak, V. and
total reactive terpene emissions might be roughly a Stadnik, V.V. 1996. Evaluation of long-term changes in
factor of 10 higher than the typically measured and radiation, cloudiness, and surface temperature on the
territory of the former Soviet Union. Journal of
modeled monoterpene emissions, making them larger
Climatology 9: 1319-1327.
than isoprene emissions on a global scale.” If this
proves to be the case, it will be a most important Baldocchi, D., Falge, E., Gu, L.H., Olson, R., Hollinger,
finding, for it would mean that vegetative emissions D., Running, S., Anthoni, P., Bernhofer, C., Davis, K.,
of terpenes, which lead to the destruction of ozone, Evans, R., Fuentes, J., Goldstein, A., Katul, G., Law, B.,
are significantly greater than vegetative emissions of Lee, X.H., Malhi, Y., Meyers, T., Munger, W., Oechel, W.,
isoprene, which lead to the creation of ozone (Poisson Paw U, K.T., Pilegaard, K., Schmid, H.P., Valentini, R.,
Verma, S., Vesala, T., Wilson, K. and Wofsy, S. 2001.
et al., 2000). In addition, there is substantial evidence
FLUXNET: A new tool to study the temporal and spatial
to suggest that the ongoing rise in the air’s CO2 variability of ecosystem-scale carbon dioxide, water vapor,
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type ecosystem. New Phytologist 161: 17-21.
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Kiang, C.S. 1988. The role of biogenic hydrocarbons in

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 Climate Change Reconsidered

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Setzer, A., Markham, B., Clark, D., Frouin, R., Halthore, effects of aerosol loading on net ecosystem CO2 exchanges
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 Feedback Factors and Radiative Forcing

dimensional modeling results. Journal of Atmospheric Contrails created in the wake of emissions from jet
Chemistry 36: 157-230. aircraft are one example. Minnis et al. (2004) have
Raisanen, T., Ryyppo, A. and Kellomaki, S. 2008. Effects calculated that nearly all of the surface warming
of elevated CO2 and temperature on monoterpene emission observed over the United States between 1975 and
of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.). Atmospheric 1994 (0.54°C) may well be explained by aircraft-
Environment 42: 4160-4171. induced increases in cirrus cloud coverage over that
period. If true, this result would imply that little to
Reichenau, T.G. and Esser, G. 2003. Is interannual none of the observed U.S. warming over that period
fluctuation of atmospheric CO2 dominated by combined
could be attributed to the concomitant increase in the
effects of ENSO and volcanic aerosols? Global
Biogeochemical Cycles 17: 10.1029/2002GB002025. air’s CO2 content.
Ship tracks, or bright streaks that form in layers
Roderick, M.L., Farquhar, G.D., Berry, S.L. and Noble, of marine stratus clouds, are another example. They
I.R. 2001. On the direct effect of clouds and atmospheric are created by emissions from ocean-going vessels;
particles on the productivity and structure of vegetation. these persistent and highly reflective linear patches of
Oecologia 129: 21-30. low-level clouds generally tend to cool the planet
Sarmiento, J.L. 1993. Atmospheric CO2 stalled. Nature (Ferek et al., 1998; Schreier et al., 2006). Averaged
365: 697-698. over the surface of the earth both day and night and
over the year, Capaldo et al. (1999) calculated that
Schade, G.W. and Goldstein, A.H. 2003. Increase of this phenomenon creates a mean negative radiative
monoterpene emissions from a pine plantation as a result of
forcing of -0.16 Wm-2 in the Northern Hemisphere
mechanical disturbances. Geophysical Research Letters 30:
10.1029/2002GL016138. and -0.06 Wm-2 in the Southern Hemisphere, which
values are to be compared to the much larger positive
Shallcross, D.E. and Monks, P.S. 2000. A role for isoprene radiative forcing of approximately 4 Wm-2 due to a
in biosphere-climate-chemistry feedbacks. Atmospheric 300 ppm increase in the atmosphere’s CO2
Environment 34: 1659-1660. concentration.
Shulaev, V., Silverman, P. and Raskin, I. 1997. Airborne In some cases, the atmosphere over the sea also
signaling by methyl salicylate in plant pathogen resistance. carries a considerable burden of anthropogenically
Nature 385: 718-721. produced aerosols from terrestrial sites. In recent
years, attention to this topic has centered on highly
Stanhill, G. and Cohen, S. 2001. Global dimming: a review polluted air from south and southeast Asia that makes
of the evidence for a widespread and significant reduction
its way over the northern Indian Ocean during the dry
in global radiation with discussion of its probable causes
and possible agricultural consequences. Agricultural and monsoon season. There has been much discussion
Forest Meteorology 107: 255-278. about the impact of this phenomenon on regional
climates. Norris (2001) looked at cloud cover as the
Staudt, M., Joffre, R., Rambal, S. and Kesselmeier, J. 2001. ultimate arbiter of the various competing hypotheses,
Effect of elevated CO2 on monoterpene emission of young finding that daytime low-level oceanic cloud cover
Quercus ilex trees and its relation to structural and increased substantially over the last half of the past
ecophysiological parameters. Tree Physiology 21: 437-445.
century in both the Northern and Southern
Suraqui, S., Tabor, H., Klein, W.H. and Goldberg, B. 1974. Hemispheres at essentially all hours of the day. This
Solar radiation changes at Mt. St. Katherine after forty finding is indicative of a pervasive net cooling effect.
years. Solar Energy 16: 155-158. Aerosol-generating human activities also have a
Vuorinen, T., Reddy, G.V.P., Nerg, A.-M. and Holopainen,
significant impact on local, as well as more wide-
J.K. 2004. Monoterpene and herbivore-induced emissions ranging, climatic phenomena over land. Sahai (1998)
from cabbage plants grown at elevated atmospheric CO2 found that although suburban areas of Nagpur, India
concentration. Atmospheric Environment 38: 675-682. had warmed over recent decades, the central part of
the city had cooled, especially during the day,
because of “increasing concentrations of suspended
2.8.4. Non-Biological (Anthropogenic) particulate matter.” Likewise, outside of, but adjacent
to, industrial complexes in the Po Valley of Italy,
There are several ways the activities of humanity lead Facchini et al. (1999) found that water vapor was
to the creation of aerosols that have the potential to more likely to form on aerosols that had been altered
alter earth’s radiation balance and affect its climate. by human-produced organic solutes, and that this

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 Climate Change Reconsidered

phenomenon led to the creation of more numerous solar radiation measurement programs around the
and more highly reflective cloud droplets that had a world to see if there had been any trend in the mean
tendency to cool the surface below them. amount of solar radiation falling on the surface of the
In a similar vein, Rosenfeld (2000) studied earth over the past half-century. They determined
pollution tracks downwind of urban/industrial there was a significant 50-year downward trend in
complexes in Turkey, Canada and Australia. His this parameter that “has globally averaged 0.51 ± 0.05
findings indicated that the clouds comprising these Wm-2 per year, equivalent to a reduction of 2.7
pollution tracks were composed of small droplets that percent per decade, [which] now totals 20 Wm-2.”
suppressed precipitation by inhibiting further They also concluded that the most probable
coalescence and ice precipitation formation. In explanation for this observation “is that increases in
commenting on this research, Toon (2000) pointed man-made aerosols and other air pollutants have
out that when clouds are composed of smaller changed the optical properties of the atmosphere, in
droplets, they will not “rain out” as quickly and will particular those of clouds.”
therefore last longer and cover more of the earth, both Although this surface-cooling influence is huge, it
of which effects tend to cool the globe. falls right in the mid-range of a similar solar radiative
In reviewing these and other advances in the field perturbation documented by Satheesh and
of anthropogenic aerosol impacts on clouds, Charlson Ramanathan (2000) in their study of the effects of
et al. (2001) note that droplet clouds “are the most human-induced pollution over the tropical northern
important factor controlling the albedo (reflectivity) Indian Ocean, where they determined that “mean
and hence the temperature of our planet.” They say clear-sky solar radiative heating for the winters of
man-made aerosols “have a strong influence on cloud 1998 and 1999 decreased at the ocean surface by 12
albedo, with a global mean forcing estimated to be of to 30 Wm-2.” Hence, the decline in solar radiation
the same order (but opposite in sign) as that of reception discovered by Stanhill and Cohen could
greenhouse gases,” and “both the forcing [of this well be real. And if it is, it represents a tremendous
man-induced impetus for cooling] and its magnitude counter-influence to the enhanced greenhouse effect
may be even larger than anticipated.” They rightly produced by the contemporaneous increase in
warn that lack of inclusion of the consequences of atmospheric CO2 concentration.
these important phenomena in climate change In a more recent study, Ruckstuhl et al. (2008)
deliberations “poses additional uncertainty beyond presented “observational evidence of a strong decline
that already recognized by the Intergovernmental in aerosol optical depth over mainland Europe during
Panel on Climate Change, making the largest the last two decades of rapid warming”—when air
uncertainty in estimating climate forcing even larger.” temperatures rose by about 1°C after 1980—via
Another assessment of the issue was provided by analyses of “aerosol optical depth measurements from
Ghan et al. (2001), who studied both the positive six specific locations and surface irradiance
radiative forcings of greenhouse gases and the measurements from a large number of radiation sites
negative radiative forcings of anthropogenic aerosols in Northern Germany and Switzerland.”
and reported that current best estimates of “the total In consequence of the observed decline in aerosol
global mean present-day anthropogenic forcing range concentration of up to 60 percent, the authors state
from 3 Wm-2 to -1 Wm-2,” which represents there was “a statistically significant increase of solar
everything from a modest warming to a slight irradiance under cloud-free skies since the 1980s.”
cooling. After performing their own analysis of the The value of the direct aerosol effect of this radiative
problem, they reduced the magnitude of this range forcing was approximately 0.84 Wm-2; and when
somewhat but the end result still stretched from a combined with the concomitant cloud-induced
small cooling influence to a modest impetus for radiative forcing of about 0.16 Wm-2, it led to a total
warming. “Clearly,” they concluded, “the great radiative surface climate forcing over mainland
uncertainty in the radiative forcing must be reduced if Europe of about 1 Wm-2 that “most probably strongly
the observed climate record is to be reconciled with contributed to the recent rapid warming in Europe.”
model predictions and if estimates of future climate Cleaning up significantly polluted skies, it seems, can
change are to be useful in formulating emission provide an even greater impetus for climate warming
policies.” than does the carbon dioxide that is concurrently
Another pertinent observation comes from emitted to them, as has apparently been the case over
Stanhill and Cohen (2001), who reviewed numerous mainland Europe for the past quarter-century.

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 Feedback Factors and Radiative Forcing

Anthropogenic aerosols plainly have a major the recent rapid warming. Geophysical Research Letters
effect on climate. The evidence is dear contrails 35: 10.1029/2008GL034228.
created by emissions from jet aircraft, ship tracks Sahai, A.K. 1998. Climate change: a case study over India.
created by ocean-going vessels, and air pollution from Theoretical and Applied Climatology 61: 9-18.
terrestrial sources all have effects on temperatures
that rival or exceed the likely effect of rising CO2 Satheesh, S.K. and Ramanathan, V. 2000. Large
levels. With the progress that has been made in recent differences in tropical aerosol forcing at the top of the
years in reducing air pollution in developed countries, atmosphere and Earth’s surface. Nature 405: 60-63.
it is possible the lion’s share of the warming has Schreier, M., Kokhanovsky, A.A., Eyring, V., Bugliaro, L.,
likely been produced by the removal from the Mannstein, H., Mayer, B., Bovensmann, H. and Burrows,
atmosphere of true air pollutants. J.P. 2006. Impact of ship emissions on the microphysical,
Additional information on this topic, including optical and radiative properties of marine stratus: a case
reviews of newer publications as they become study. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 6: 4925-4942.
available, can be found at http://www.co2science.org/ Stanhill, G. and Cohen, S. 2001. Global dimming: a review
subject/a/aerononbioanthro.php. of the evidence for a widespread and significant reduction
in global radiation with discussion of its probable causes
and possible agricultural consequences. Agricultural and
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Capaldo, K., Corbett, J.J., Kasibhatla, P., Fischbeck, P. and Toon, O.W. 2000. How pollution suppresses rain. Science
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cycling and radiative climate forcing over the ocean.
Nature 400: 743-746.
Charlson, R.J., Seinfeld, J.H., Nenes, A., Kulmala, M., 2.8.5. Non-Biological (Natural)
Laaksonen, A. and Facchini, M.C. 2001. Reshaping the
theory of cloud formation. Science 292: 2025-2026. We conclude our section on aerosols with a brief
Facchini, M.C., Mircea, M., Fuzzi, S. and Charlson, R.J. discussion of a non-biological, naturally produced
1999. Cloud albedo enhancement by surface-active organic aerosol—dust. Dust is about as natural and ubiquitous
solutes in growing droplets. Nature 401: 257-259. a substance as there is. One might think we would
have a pretty good handle on what it does to earth’s
Ferek, R.J., Hegg, D.A., Hobbs, P.V., Durkee, P. and climate as it is moved about by the planet’s ever-
Nielsen, K. 1998. Measurements of ship-induced tracks in active atmosphere. But such is not the case, as was
clouds off the Washington coast. Journal of Geophysical
made strikingly clear by Sokolik (1999), who with the
Research 103: 23,199-23,206.
help of nine colleagues summarized the sentiments of
Ghan, S.J., Easter, R.C., Chapman, E.G., Abdul-Razzak, a number of scientists who have devoted their lives to
H., Zhang, Y., Leung, L.R., Laulainen, N.S., Saylor, R.D. studying the subject.
and Zaveri, R.A. 2001. A physically based estimate of Sokolik notes state-of-the-art climate models
radiative forcing by anthropogenic sulfate aerosol. Journal “rely heavily on oversimplified parameterizations” of
of Geophysical Research 106: 5279-5293. many important dust-related phenomena, “while
Minnis, P., Ayers, J.K., Palikonda, R. and Phan, D. 2004. ignoring others.” As a result, the group concludes.
Contrails, cirrus trends, and climate. Journal of Climate 17: “the magnitude and even the sign of dust net direct
1671-1685. radiative forcing of climate remains unclear.”
According to Sokolik, there are a number of
Norris, J.R. 2001. Has northern Indian Ocean cloud cover
unanswered questions about airborne dust, including:
changed due to increasing anthropogenic aerosol?
Geophysical Research Letters 28: 3271-3274. (1) How does one quantify dust emission rates from
both natural and anthropogenic (disturbed) sources
Rosenfeld, D. 2000. Suppression of rain and snow by urban with required levels of temporal and spatial
and industrial air pollution. Science 287: 1793-1796. resolution? (2) How does one accurately determine
Ruckstuhl, C., Philipona, R., Behrens, K., Coen, M.C., the composition, size, and shape of dust particles
Durr, B., Heimo, A., Matzler, C., Nyeki, S., Ohmura, A., from ground-based and aircraft measurements? (3)
Vuilleumier, L., Weller, M., Wehrli, C. and Zelenka, A. How does one adequately measure and model light
2008. Aerosol and cloud effects on solar brightening and absorption by mineral particles? (4) How does one

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 Climate Change Reconsidered

link the ever-evolving optical, chemical, and physical fact, Vogelmann et al. say that these results “highlight
properties of dust to its life cycle in the air? (5) How the importance of aerosol IR forcing which should be
does one model complex multi-layered aerosol included in climate model simulations.”
stratification in the dust-laden atmosphere? (6) How Another aspect of the dust-climate connection
does one quantify airborne dust properties from centers on the African Sahel, which has figured
satellite observations? prominently in discussions of climate change ever
In discussing these questions, Sokolik makes since it began to experience extended drought
some interesting observations, noting that: (1) what is conditions in the late 1960s and early ‘70s. Initial
currently known (or believed to be known) about dust studies of the drought attributed it to anthropogenic
emissions “is largely from micro-scale experiments factors such as overgrazing of the region’s fragile
and theoretical studies,” (2) new global data sets are grasses, which tends to increase surface albedo, which
needed to provide “missing information” on input was envisioned to reduce precipitation, resulting in a
parameters (such as soil type, surface roughness, and further reduction in the region’s vegetative cover, and
soil moisture) required to model dust emission rates, so on (Otterman, 1974; Charney, 1975). This
(3) improvements in methods used to determine some scenario, however, was challenged by Jackson and
of these parameters are also “sorely needed,” (4) how Idso (1975) and Idso (1977) on the basis of empirical
to adequately measure light absorption by mineral observations; while Lamb (1978) and Folland et al.
particles is still an “outstanding problem,” and (5) it (1986) attributed the drought to large-scale
“remains unknown how well these measurements atmospheric circulation changes triggered by
represent the light absorption by aerosol particles multidecadal variations in sea surface temperature.
suspended in the atmosphere.” Building on the insights provided by these latter
It is easy to understand why Sokolik says “a investigations, Giannini et al. (2003) presented
challenge remains in relating dust climatology and the evidence based on an ensemble of integrations with a
processes controlling the evolution of dust at all general circulation model of the atmosphere—forced
relevant spatial/temporal scales needed for chemistry only by the observed record of sea surface
and climate models,” for until this challenge is met, temperature—which suggested that the “variability of
we will but “see through a glass, darkly,” especially rainfall in the Sahel results from the response of the
when it comes to trying to discern the effects of African summer monsoon to oceanic forcing
airborne dust on earth’s climate. amplified by land-atmosphere interaction.” The
Vogelmann et al. (2003) reiterate that “mineral success of this analysis led them to conclude that “the
aerosols have complex, highly varied optical recent drying trend in the semi-arid Sahel is attributed
properties that, for equal loadings, can cause to warmer-than-average low-latitude waters around
differences in the surface IR flux [of] between 7 and Africa, which, by favoring the establishment of deep
25 Wm-2 (Sokolik et al., 1998),” while at the same convection over the ocean, weaken the continental
time acknowledging that “only a few large-scale convergence associated with the monsoon and
climate models currently consider aerosol IR effects engender widespread drought from Senegal to
(e.g., Tegen et al., 1996; Jacobson, 2001) despite their Ethiopia.” They further concluded that “the secular
potentially large forcing.” change in Sahel rainfall during the past century was
Vogelmann et al. “use[d] high-resolution spectra not a direct consequence of regional environmental
to obtain the IR radiative forcing at the surface for change, anthropogenic in nature or otherwise.”
aerosols encountered in the outflow from northeastern In a companion article, Prospero and Lamb
Asia,” based on measurements made by the Marine- (2003) report that measurements made from 1965 to
Atmospheric Emitted Radiance Interferometer aboard 1998 in the Barbados trade winds show large
the NOAA Ship Ronald H. Brown during the Aerosol interannual changes in the concentration of dust of
Characterization Experiment-Asia. This work led African origin that are highly anticorrelated with the
them to conclude that “daytime surface IR forcings prior year’s rainfall in the Soudano-Sahel. They say
are often a few Wm-2 and can reach almost 10 Wm-2 the 2001 IPCC report “assumes that natural dust
for large aerosol loadings,” which values, in their sources have been effectively constant over the past
words, “are comparable to or larger than the 1 to 2 several hundred years and that all variability is
Wm-2 change in the globally averaged surface IR attributable to human land-use impacts.” But “there is
forcing caused by greenhouse gas increases since pre- little firm evidence to support either of these
industrial times.” And in a massive understatement of

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assumptions,” they say, and their findings Jackson, R.D. and Idso, S.B. 1975. Surface albedo and
demonstrate why: The IPCC assumptions are wrong. desertification. Science 189: 1012-1013.
Clearly, much remains to be learned about the Jacobson, M.Z. 2001. Global direct radiative forcing due to
climatic impacts of dust before anyone can place any multicomponent anthropogenic and natural aerosols.
confidence in the climatic projections of the IPCC. Journal of Geophysical Research 106: 1551-1568.
Additional information on this topic, including
reviews of newer publications as they become Lamb, P.J. 1978. Large-scale tropical Atlantic surface
available, can be found at http://www.co2science.org/ circulation patterns associated with sub-Saharan weather
anomalies. Tellus 30: 240-251.
subject/a/aerononbio nat.php.
Otterman, J. 1974. Baring high-albedo soils by
overgrazing: a hypothesized desertification mechanism.
References Science 186: 531-533.
Prospero, J.M. and Lamb, P.J. 2003. African droughts and
Charney, J.G. 1975. Dynamics of desert and drought in the
dust transport to the Caribbean: climate change
Sahel. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological
implications. Science 302: 1024-1027.
Society 101: 193-202.
Sokolik, I.N. 1999. Challenges add up in quantifying
Folland, C.K., Palmer, T.N. and Parker, D.E. 1986. Sahel
radiative impact of mineral dust. EOS: Transactions,
rainfall and worldwide sea temperatures, 1901-85. Nature
American Geophysical Union 80: 578.
320: 602-607.
Sokolik, I.N., Toon, O.B. and Bergstrom, R.W. 1998.
Giannini, A., Saravanan, R. and Chang, P. 2003. Oceanic
Modeling the radiative characteristics of airborne mineral
forcing of Sahel rainfall on interannual to interdecadal time
aerosols at infrared wavelengths. Journal of Geophysical
scales. Science 302: 1027-1030.
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Houghton, J.T., Ding, Y., Griggs, D.J., Noguer, M., van der
Tegen, I., Lacis, A.A. and Fung, I. 1996. The influence on
Linden, P.J., Xiaosu, D., Maskell, K. and Johnson, C.A.
climate forcing of mineral aerosols from disturbed soils.
(Eds.). 2001. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis.
Nature 380: 419-422.
Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
(Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Third Assessment Vogelmann, A.M., Flatau, P.J., Szczodrak, M., Markowicz,
Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.) K.M. and Minnett, P.J. 2003. Geophysical Research Letters
30: 10.1029/2002GL016829.
Idso, S.B. 1977. A note on some recently proposed
mechanisms of genesis of deserts. Quarterly Journal of the
Royal Meteorological Society 103: 369-370.

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3
Observations: Temperature Records

3. Observations: Temperature Records

3.1. Paeloclimatic Data
3.2. Past 1,000 Years
3.3. Urban Heat Island
3.4. Fingerprints
3.5. Satellite Data
3.6. Arctic
3.7. Antarctic

Introduction 3.1. Paeloclimatic Data

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Rothman (2002) derived a 500-million-year history of
(IPCC) claims to have found evidence in the air’s CO2 content based on considerations related
paeloclimatic data that higher levels of atmospheric to the chemical weathering of rocks, volcanic and
CO2 can cause or amplify an increase in global metamorphic degassing, and the burial of organic
temperatures (IPCC, 2007-I, Chapter 6). The IPCC carbon, along with considerations related to the
further claims to have evidence of an anthropogenic isotopic content of organic carbon and strontium in
effect on climate in the earth’s temperature history marine sedimentary rocks. The results of this analysis
during the past century (Chapters 3, 9), in the pattern suggest that over the majority of the half-billion-year
(or “fingerprint”) of more recent warming (Chapter 9, record, earth’s atmospheric CO2 concentration
Section 9.4.1.4), in data from land-based temperature fluctuated between values that were two to four times
stations and satellites (Chapter 3), and in the greater than those of today at a dominant period on
temperature records of the Artic region and Antarctica the order of 100 million years. Over the last 175
where models predict anthropogenic global warming million years, however, the data depict a long-term
should be detected first (Chapter 11, Section 8). In decline in the air’s CO2 content.
this chapter, we critically examine the data used to Rothman reports that the CO2 history “exhibits no
support each of these claims, starting with the systematic correspondence with the geologic record
relationship between CO2 and temperature in ancient of climatic variations at tectonic time scales.” A
climates. visual examination of Rothman’s plot of CO2 and
concomitant major cold and warm periods indicates
the three most striking peaks in the air’s CO2
References concentration occur either totally or partially within
periods of time when earth’s climate was relatively
IPCC. 2007-I. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science cool.
Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth A more detailed look at the most recent 50
Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on million years of earth’s thermal and CO2 history was
Climate Change. Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. prepared by Pagani et al. (2005). They found about
Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L.
43 million years ago, the atmosphere’s CO2
Miller. (Eds.) Cambridge University Press, Cambridge,
UK. concentration was approximately 1400 ppm and the
oxygen isotope ratio (a proxy for temperature) was

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 Climate Change Reconsidered

Figure 3.1. Temperature history derived by Petit et al. (1999) from an ice core extracted from the Russian Vostok drilling
station in East Antarctica.

about 1.0 per mil. Then, over the next ten million Over this period, the three most dramatic warming
years, the air’s CO2 concentration experienced three events experienced on earth were the terminations of
huge oscillations on the order of 1000 ppm from peak the last three ice ages; and for each of these climatic
to valley. In the first two oscillations, temperature did transitions, earth’s air temperature always rose well in
not appear to respond at all to the change in CO2, advance of the increase in atmospheric CO2. In fact,
exhibiting an uninterrupted slow decline. Following the air’s CO2 content did not begin to rise until 400 to
the third rise in CO2, however, temperatures seemed 1,000 years after the planet began to warm.
to respond, but in the direction opposite to what the Another research team, Petit et al. (1999), studied
greenhouse theory of global warming predicts, as the the beginnings rather than the ends of glacial ages.
rise in CO2 was followed by the sharpest drop in They discovered that during all glacial inceptions of
temperature of the entire record. the past half million years, temperature always
Following this large drop in temperature between dropped well before the decline in the air’s CO2
34 and 33 million years before present (Ma BP), the concentration. They said their data indicate that “the
oxygen isotope ratio hovered around a value of 2.7 CO2 decrease lags the temperature decrease by
per mil from about 33 to 26 Ma BP, indicating little several thousand years.” Petit et al. also found the
change in temperature over that period. The current interglacial is the coolest of the five most
corresponding CO2 concentration, on the other hand, recent such periods. In fact, the peak temperatures of
experienced about a 500 ppm increase around 32 Ma the four interglacials that preceded it were, on
BP, after which it dropped 1,000 ppm over the next average, more than 2°C warmer than that of the one in
two million years, only to rise again by a few hundred which we currently live. (See Figure 3.1.)
ppm, refuting – three times – the CO2-induced global Figure 3.1 tells us three things about the current
warming hypothesis. Next, around 26 Ma BP, the warm period. First, temperatures of the last decades
oxygen isotope ratio dropped to about 1.4 per mil of the twentieth century were “unprecedented” or
(implying a significant rise in temperature), during “unusual” only because they were cooler than during
which time the air’s CO2 content declined. From 24 past interglacial peaks. Second, the current
Ma BP to the end of the record at 5 Ma BP, there temperature of the globe cannot be taken as evidence
were relatively small variations in atmospheric CO2 of an anthropogenic effect since it was warmer during
content but relatively large variations in oxygen parts of all preceding interglacials for which we have
isotope values, both up and down. All of these many good proxy temperature data. And third, the higher
observations, according to Pagani et al. (2005), temperatures of the past four interglacials cannot be
“argue for a decoupling between global climate and attributed to higher CO2 concentrations caused by
CO2.” some non-human influence because atmospheric CO2
Moving closer to the modern era, Fischer et al. concentrations during all four prior interglacials never
(1999) examined trends of atmospheric CO2 and air rose above approximately 290 ppm, whereas the air’s
temperature derived from Antarctic ice core data that CO2 concentration today stands at nearly 380 ppm.
extended back in time a quarter of a million years. Likewise, Mudelsee (2001) determined that

64
 Observations: Temperature Records

variations in atmospheric CO2 concentration lagged al. (2005), who analyzed CO2 and proxy temperature
behind variations in air temperature by 1,300 to 5,000 (δD, the ratio of deuterium to hydrogen) data derived
years over the past 420,000 years. During certain from an ice core in Antarctica. Results of their
climatic transitions characterized by rapid warmings analysis revealed a coupling of Antarctic temperature
of several degrees Centigrade, which were followed and CO2 in which they obtained the best correlation
by slower coolings that returned the climate to between CO2 and temperature “for a lag of CO2 of
essentially full glacial conditions, Staufer et al. (1998) 1900 years.” Specifically, over the course of glacial
observed the atmospheric CO2 concentration derived terminations V to VII, they indicate that “the highest
from ice core records typically varied by less than 10 correlation of CO2 and deuterium, with use of a 20-ky
ppm. They, too, considered the CO2 perturbations to window for each termination, yields a lag of CO2 to
have been caused by the changes in climate, rather deuterium of 800, 1600, and 2800 years,
than vice versa. respectively.” In addition, they note that “this value
Other studies have also demonstrated this reverse is consistent with estimates based on data from the
coupling of atmospheric CO2 and temperature (e.g., past four glacial cycles,” citing in this regard the work
Cheddadi et al., 1998; Gagan et al., 1998; Raymo et of Fischer et al. (1999), Monnin et al. (2001) and
al., 1998), where temperature is the independent Caillon et al. (2003).
variable that appears to induce changes in CO2. Steig These observations seem to undermine the
(1999) noted cases between 7,000 and 5,000 years IPCC’s claims that the CO2 produced by the burning
ago when atmospheric CO2 concentrations increased of fossil fuels will lead to catastrophic global
by just over 10 ppm at a time when temperatures in warming. Nevertheless, Siegenthaler et al. stubbornly
both hemispheres cooled. state that the new findings “do not cast doubt ... on
Caillon et al. (2003) measured the isotopic the importance of CO2 as a key amplification factor of
composition of argon – specifically, δ40Ar, which they the large observed temperature variations of glacial
argue “can be taken as a climate proxy, thus cycles.” The previously cited Caillon et al. also avoid
providing constraints about the timing of CO2 and the seemingly clear implication of their own findings,
climate change” – in air bubbles in the Vostok ice that CO2 doesn’t cause global warming. We find such
core over the period that comprises what is called disclaimers disingenuous.
Glacial Termination III, which occurred about When temperature is found to lead CO2 by
240,000 years ago. The results of their tedious but thousands of years, during both glacial terminations
meticulous analysis led them to conclude that “the and inceptions (Genthon et al., 1987; Fischer et al.,
CO2 increase lagged Antarctic deglacial warming by 1999; Petit et al., 1999; Indermuhle et al., 2000;
800 ± 200 years.” This finding, in their words, Monnin et al., 2001; Mudelsee, 2001; Caillon et al.,
“confirms that CO2 is not the forcing that initially 2003), it is extremely likely that CO2 plays only a
drives the climatic system during a deglaciation.” minor role in enhancing temperature changes that are
Indermuhle et al. (1999) determined that after the induced by something else. Compared with the mean
termination of the last great ice age, the CO2 content conditions of the preceding four interglacials, there is
of the air gradually rose by approximately 25 ppm in currently 90 ppm more CO2 in the air and yet it is
almost linear fashion between 8,200 and 1,200 years currently more than 2°C colder than it was then.
ago, over a period of time that saw a slow but steady There is no way these real-world observations can be
decline in global air temperature. On the other hand, construed to suggest that a significant increase in
when working with a high-resolution temperature and atmospheric CO2 would necessarily lead to any global
atmospheric CO2 record spanning the period 60 to 20 warming, much less the catastrophic type that is
thousand years ago, Indermuhle et al. (2000) predicted by the IPCC.
discovered four distinct periods when temperatures
rose by approximately 2°C and CO2 rose by about 20
ppm. However, one of the statistical tests they References
performed on the data suggested that the shifts in the
air’s CO2 content during these intervals followed the Caillon, N., Severinghaus, J.P., Jouzel, J., Barnola, J.-M.,
shifts in air temperature by approximately 900 years; Kang, J. and Lipenkov, V.Y. 2003. Timing of
while a second statistical test yielded a mean CO2 lag atmospheric CO2 and Antarctic temperature changes across
time of 1,200 years. Termination III. Science 299: 1728-1731.
Another pertinent study is that of Siegenthaler et

65
 Climate Change Reconsidered

Cheddadi, R., Lamb, H.F., Guiot, J. and van der Kaars, S. Petit, J.R., Jouzel, J., Raynaud, D., Barkov, N.I., Barnola,
1998. Holocene climatic change in Morocco: a J.-M., Basile, I., Bender, M., Chappellaz, J., Davis, M.,
quantitative reconstruction from pollen data. Climate Delaygue, G., Delmotte, M., Kotlyakov, V.M., Legrand,
Dynamics 14: 883-890. M., Lipenkov, V.Y., Lorius, C., Pepin, L., Ritz, C.,
Saltzman, E. and Stievenard, M. 1999. Climate and
Fischer, H., Wahlen, M., Smith, J., Mastroianni, D. and atmospheric history of the past 420,000 years from the
Deck, B. 1999. Ice core records of atmospheric CO2 Vostok ice core, Antarctica. Nature 399: 429-436.
around the last three glacial terminations. Science 283:
1712-1714. Raymo, M.E., Ganley, K., Carter, S., Oppo, D.W. and
McManus, J. 1998. Millennial-scale climate instability
Gagan, M.K., Ayliffe, L.K., Hopley, D., Cali, J.A., during the early Pleistocene epoch. Nature 392: 699-702.
Mortimer, G.E., Chappell, J., McCulloch, M.T. and Head,
M.J. 1998. Temperature and surface-ocean water balance Rothman, D.H. 2002. Atmospheric carbon dioxide levels
of the mid-Holocene tropical western Pacific. Science 279: for the last 500 million years. Proceedings of the National
1014-1017. Academy of Sciences USA 99: 4167-4171.
Genthon, C., Barnola, J.M., Raynaud, D., Lorius, C., Royer, D.L., Wing, S.L., Beerling, D.J., Jolley, D.W.,
Jouzel, J., Barkov, N.I., Korotkevich, Y.S. and Kotlyakov, Koch, P.L., Hickey, L.J. and Berner, R.A. 2001.
V.M. 1987. Vostok ice core: Climatic response to CO2 Paleobotanical evidence for near present-day levels of
and orbital forcing changes over the last climatic cycle. atmospheric CO2 during part of the Tertiary. Science 292:
Nature 329: 414-418. 2310-2313.
Indermuhle, A., Monnin, E., Stauffer, B. and Stocker, T.F. Siegenthaler, U., Stocker, T., Monnin, E., Luthi, D.,
2000. Atmospheric CO2 concentration from 60 to 20 kyr Schwander, J., Stauffer, B., Raynaud, D., Barnola, J.-M.,
BP from the Taylor Dome ice core, Antarctica. Fischer, H., Masson-Delmotte, V. and Jouzel, J. 2005.
Geophysical Research Letters 27: 735-738. Stable carbon cycle-climate relationship during the late
Pleistocene. Science 310: 1313-1317.
Indermuhle, A., Stocker, T.F., Joos, F., Fischer, H., Smith,
H.J., Wahllen, M., Deck, B., Mastroianni, D., Tschumi, J., Staufer, B., Blunier, T., Dallenbach, A., Indermuhle, A.,
Blunier, T., Meyer, R. and Stauffer, B. 1999. Holocene Schwander, J., Stocker, T.F., Tschumi, J., Chappellaz, J.,
carbon-cycle dynamics based on CO2 trapped in ice at Raynaud, D., Hammer, C.U. and Clausen, H.B. 1998.
Taylor Dome, Antarctica. Nature 398: 121-126. Atmospheric CO2 concentration and millennial-scale
climate change during the last glacial period. Nature 392:
Monnin, E., Indermühle, A., Dällenbach, A., Flückiger, J, 59-62.
Stauffer, B., Stocker, T.F., Raynaud, D. and Barnola, J.-M.
2001. Atmospheric CO2 concentrations over the last Steig, E.J. 1999. Mid-Holocene climate change. Science
glacial termination. Nature 291: 112-114. 286: 1485-1487.
Mudelsee, M. 2001. The phase relations among
atmospheric CO2 content, temperature and global ice
volume over the past 420 ka. Quaternary Science Reviews 3.2. Past 1,000 Years
20: 583-589.
Pagani, M., Authur, M.A. and Freeman, K.H. 1999. The IPCC claims “average Northern Hemisphere
Miocene evolution of atmospheric carbon dioxide. temperatures during the second half of the 20th
Paleoceanography 14: 273-292. century were very likely higher than during any other
50-year period in the past 500 years and likely the
Pagani, M., Zachos, J.C., Freeman, K.H., Tipple, B. and
Bohaty, S. 2005. Marked decline in atmospheric carbon highest in at least the past 1,300 years [italics in the
dioxide concentrations during the Paleogene. Science 309: original]” (IPCC, 2007-I, p. 9). Later in that report,
600-603. the IPCC says “the warming observed after 1980 is
unprecedented compared to the levels measured in the
Pearson, P.N. and Palmer, M.R. 1999. Middle Eocene previous 280 years” (p. 466) and “it is likely that the
seawater pH and atmospheric carbon dioxide 20th century was the warmest in at least the past
concentrations. Science 284: 1824-1826.
1.3 kyr. Considering the recent instrumental and
Pearson, P.N. and Palmer, M.R. 2000. Atmospheric longer proxy evidence together, it is very likely that
carbon dioxide concentrations over the past 60 million average NH [Northern Hemisphere] temperatures
years. Nature 406: 695-699. during the second half of the 20th century were higher
than for any other 50-year period in the last 500
years” (p. 474).

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 Observations: Temperature Records

The notions that the warming of the second half 3.2.1. The Hockey Stick
of the twentieth century was “unprecedented” and that
temperatures during the twentieth century were “the One of the most famous pieces of “evidence” for
warmest in at least the past 1.3 kyr” will be anthropogenic global warming (AGW) brought forth
questioned and tested again and again in the present in recent years was the “hockey stick” diagram of
report. We start here with an examination of the work Michael Mann and colleagues (Mann et al., 1998;
of Mann et al. (1998, 1999, 2004) and Mann and Mann et al., 1999; Mann and Jones, 2003). (See
Jones (2003), which captured the attention of the Figure 3.2.1.) Because the graph played such a big
world in the early years of the twenty-first century role in mobilizing concern over global warming in the
and upon which the IPCC still relies heavily for its years since it was first released, and since the IPCC
conclusions. We then present a thorough examination continues to rely upon and defend it in its latest report
of temperature records around the world to test the (see IPCC, 2007-I, pp. 466-471), we devote some
IPCC’s claim that there was no Medieval Warm space here to explaining its unusual origins and
Period during which temperatures exceeded those of subsequent rejection by much of the scientific
the twentieth century, starting with data from Africa community.
and then from Antarctica, the Arctic, Asia, Europe, The hockey stick graph first appeared in a 1998
North America, and finally South America. We return study led by Michael Mann, a young Ph.D. from the
to Antarctica and the Arctic at the end of this chapter University of Massachusetts (Mann et al., 1998).
to discuss more recent temperature trends. Mann and his colleagues used several temperature
proxies (but primarily tree rings) as a basis for
assessing past temperature changes from 1000 to
References 1980. They then grafted the surface temperature
record of the twentieth century onto the pre-1980
IPCC. 2007-I. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science proxy record. The effect was visually dramatic. (See
Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Figure 3.2.1.) Gone were the difficult-to-explain
Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Medieval Warming and the awkward Little Ice Age.
Climate Change. Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Mann gave us nine hundred years of stable global
Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L.
temperatures—until about 1910. Then the twentieth
Miller. (Eds.) Cambridge University Press, Cambridge,
UK. century’s temperatures seem to rocket upward out of
control.
Mann, M.E., Bradley, R.S. and Hughes, M.K. 1998. The Mann study gave the Clinton administration
Global-scale temperature patterns and climate forcing over the quick answer it wanted to the argument that
the past six centuries. Nature 392: 779-787. natural climate variations exceed whatever effect
Mann, M.E., Bradley, R.S. and Hughes, M.K. 1999. human activity might have had in the twentieth
Northern Hemisphere temperatures during the past century by claiming, quite simply, that even the very
millennium: Inferences, uncertainties, and limitations. biggest past historic changes in temperatures simply
Geophysical Research Letters 26: 759-762. never happened. The Clinton administration featured
it as the first visual in the U.S. National Assessment of
Mann, M.E. and Jones, P.D. 2003. Global surface
the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability
temperatures over the past two millennia. Geophysical
Research Letters 30: 10.1029/2003GL017814. and Change (later published as Climate Change
Impacts on the United States: The Potential
Mann et al. 2004. Corrigendum: Global-scale temperature Consequences of Climate Variability and Change
patterns and climate forcing over the past six centuries. (National Assessment Synthesis Team, 2001)). Mann
Nature 430: 105. was named an IPCC lead author and his graph was
prominently displayed in the IPCC’s Third
Assessment Report (IPCC-TAR, 2001), and it
subsequently appeared in Al Gore’s movie, “An
Inconvenient Truth.” Mann was named an editor of
The Journal of Climate, a major professional journal,
signaling the new order of things to the rest of his
profession.

67
 Climate Change Reconsidered

Figure 3.2.1. The ‘hockey stick’ temperature graph was used by the IPCC to argue that the twentieth century was
unusually warm (IPCC-TAR 2001, p. 3).

The “hockey stick” graph was severely critiqued Fertilization Effect of Atmospheric CO2 Enrichment
by two Canadian nonscientists who were well trained in Tree Ring Chronologies” (Graybill and Idso,
in statistics—metals expert Stephen McIntyre of 1993). Graybill and Idso specifically pointed out in
Toronto and economist Ross McKitrick from their study that neither local nor regional temperature
Canada’s University of Guelph (McIntyre and changes could account for the twentieth century
McKitrick, 2003, 2005). McIntyre and McKitrick growth spurt in those already-mature trees. But CO2
requested the original study data from Mann. It was acts like fertilizer for trees and plants and also
provided—haltingly and incompletely—indicating increases their water-use efficiency. All trees with
that no one else had previously requested the data for more CO2 in their atmosphere are very likely to grow
a peer review in connection with the original more rapidly. Trees like the high-altitude bristlecone
publication in Nature. They found the data did not pines, on the margins of both moisture and fertility,
produce the claimed results “due to collation errors, are likely to exhibit very strong responses to CO2
unjustifiable truncation or extrapolation of source enrichment—which was the point of the Graybill and
data, obsolete data, geographical location errors, Idso study.
incorrect calculation of principal components and McIntyre and McKitrick demonstrated that
other quality control defects.” removing the bristlecone pine tree data eliminates the
In their exchanges with the Mann research team, distinctive rise at the end of the “hockey stick.” Mann
McIntyre and McKitrick learned that the Mann and his coauthors could hardly have escaped knowing
studies give by far the heaviest weight to tree-ring the CO2 reality, since it was clearly presented in the
data from 14 sites in California’s Sierra Nevada title of the study from which they derived their most
Mountains. At those sites, ancient, slow-growing, heavily weighted data sites. Using corrected and
high-elevation bristlecone pine trees (which can live updated source data, McIntyre and McKitrick
5,000 years) showed a strong twentieth century recalculated the Northern Hemisphere temperature
growth spurt. The growth ring data from those trees index for the period 1400–1980 using Mann’s own
were collected and presented in a 1993 paper by methodology. This was published in Energy &
Donald Graybill and Sherwood Idso. Significantly, Environment, with the data refereed by the World
that paper was titled “Detecting the Aerial Data Center for Paleoclimatology (McIntyre and

68
 Observations: Temperature Records

McKitrick, 2003). “The major finding is that the One can disprove the IPCC’s claim by
[warming] in the early 15th century exceed[s] any demonstrating that about 1,000 years ago, there was a
[warming] in the 20th century,” report McIntyre and world-wide Medieval Warm Period (MWP) when
McKitrick. In other words, the Mann study was global temperatures were equally as high as or higher
fundamentally wrong. than they were over the latter part of the twentieth
Mann and his team were forced to publish a century, despite there being approximately 25 percent
correction in Science admitting to errors in their less CO2 in the atmosphere than there is today. This
published proxy data, but they still claimed that “none real-world fact conclusively demonstrates there is
of these errors affect our previously published results” nothing unnatural about the planet’s current
(Mann et al., 2004). That claim, too, was contradicted temperature, and that whatever warming occurred
by later work by McIntyre and McKitrick (2005), by during the twentieth century was likely caused by the
statistics expert Edward Wegman (Wegman et al., recurrence of whatever cyclical phenomena created
2006), and by a National Academy of Sciences report the equal or even greater warmth of the MWP.
(NAS, 2006). The NAS skipped lightly over the The degree of warming and climatic influence
errors of the hockey-stick analysis and concluded it during the MWP varied from region to region and,
showed only that the twentieth century was the hence, its consequences were manifested in several
warmest in 400 years, but this conclusion is hardly ways. But that it occurred and was a global
surprising, since the Little Ice Age was near its nadir phenomenon is certain; there are literally hundreds of
400 years ago, with temperatures at their lowest. It peer-reviewed scientific articles that bear witness to
was the claim that temperatures in the second half of this truth.
the twentieth century were the highest in the last The Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and
millennium that properly generated the most Global Change has analyzed more than 200 peer-
attention. reviewed research papers produced by more than 660
Where does the IPCC stand today regarding the individual scientists working in 385 separate
“hockey stick”? Surprisingly, it still defends and institutions from 40 different countries that comment
relies on it. It appears in a series of graphs on page on the MWP. Figure 3.2.2 illustrates the spatial
467. Critiques by Soon and Baliunas (2003) and distribution of these studies. Squares denote studies
McIntyre and McKitrick are reported briefly but both where the scientists who conducted the work provided
are dismissed, the first because “their qualitative quantitative data that enable one to determine the
approach precluded any quantitative summary of the degree by which the peak temperature of the MWP
evidence at precise times,” and the latter by citing a differed from the peak temperature of the Current
defense of Mann by Wahl and Ammann (2006) “who Warm Period (CWP). Circles denote studies where
show the impact on the amplitude of the final the scientists who conducted the work provided
reconstruction is very small (~0.05ºC)” (IPCC, 2007- qualitative data that enable one to determine which of
I, p. 466). The Medieval Warm Period appears only in the two periods was warmer, but not by how
quotes in the index and body of the IPCC 2007-I much. Triangles denote studies where the MWP was
report. In the glossary (Annex I), it is defined as “an evident in the study’s data, but the data did not
interval between AD 1000 and 1300 in which some provide a means by which the warmth of the MWP
Northern Hemisphere regions were warmer than could be compared with that of the CWP. The third
during the Little Ice Age that followed” (p. 949). In category includes studies that are based on data
the text it is referred to as “the so-called ‘Medieval related to parameters other than temperature, such as
Warm Period.’” In a boxed discussion of precipitation. As can be seen from the figure,
“Hemispheric Temperatures in the ‘Medieval Warm evidence of the MWP has been uncovered at locations
Period,’” it says “medieval warmth was throughout the world, revealing the truly global
heterogeneous in terms of its precise timing and nature of this phenomenon.
regional expression” and “the warmest period prior to A second question often posed with respect to the
the 20th century very likely occurred between 950 MWP is: When did it occur? A histogram of the
and 1100, but temperatures were probably between timeframe (start year to end year) associated with the
0.1ºC and 0.2ºC below the 1961 to 1990 mean and MWP of the studies plotted in Figure 3.2.2 is shown
significantly below the level shown by instrumental in Figure 3.2.3. The peak timeframe of all studies
data after 1980” (p. 469). occurs around 1050 AD, within a more generalized
800 to 1300 AD warm era.

69
 Climate Change Reconsidered

Figure 3.2.2. Plot of the locations of proxy climate studies for which (a) quantitative determinations of the temperature
difference between the MWP and CWP can be made (squares), (b) qualitative determinations of the temperature
difference between the MWP and CWP can be made (circles), and (c) neither quantitative nor qualitative determinations
can be made, with the studies simply indicating that the Medieval Warm Period did indeed occur in the studied region
(triangles).

Quantitative MWP - CWP Temperature Differences

14
13
12
11
10
9
8

Figure 3.2.3. Histogram showing the timeframe associated with 7

6
all MWP studies plotted in Figure 3.2.2. 5
4
3
2
1
With respect to how warm it was during this 0

period, we have plotted the frequency distribution of -4.25 -3.25 -2.25 -1.25 -0.25 0.75 1.75 2.75 3.75
Temperature Difference: MWP-CWP (°C)
all MWP-CWP temperature differentials from all
quantitative studies (squares) shown in Figure 3.2.2 to Figure 3.2.4. The distribution, in 0.5°C increments, of studies that
create Figure 3.2.4. This figure reveals there are a few allow one to identify the degree by which peak Medieval Warm
studies in which the MWP was determined to have Period temperatures either exceeded or fell short of peak Current
been cooler than the CWP, but the vast majority of Warm Period temperatures.
the temperature differentials are positive, indicating
the MWP was warmer than the CWP. The average of presented by the authors of the original works. The
all such differentials is 1.01°C, while the median is vast majority of studies indicates the MWP was
0.90°C. warmer than the CWP.
We can further generalize the superior warmth of It is often claimed that temperatures over the
the MWP by analyzing the qualitative studies in latter part of the twentieth century were higher than
Figure 3.2.2, which we have done in Figure 3.2.5. those experienced at any other time over the past one
Here we have plotted the number of studies in Figure to two millennia. Based upon the synthesis of real-
3.2.2 in which the MWP was warmer than, cooler world data presented here (and hereafter), however,
than, or about the same as, the CWP, based upon data that claim is seen to be false.

70
 Observations: Temperature Records

Qualitative MWP - CWP Temperature Differences

Mann, M.E., Bradley, R.S. and Hughes, M.K. 1998.
60 Global-scale temperature patterns and climate forcing over
the past six centuries. Nature 392: 779-787.
50
Mann, M.E., Bradley, R.S. and Hughes, M.K. 1999.
40 Northern Hemisphere temperatures during the past
millennium: Inferences, uncertainties, and limitations.
30 Geophysical Research Letters 26: 759-762.
20 Mann, M.E. and Jones, P.D. 2003. Global surface
temperatures over the past two millennia. Geophysical
10
Research Letters 30: 10.1029/2003GL017814.
0
Mann et al. 2004. Corrigendum: Global-scale temperature
MWP < CWP MWP ≈ CWP MWP > CWP
patterns and climate forcing over the past six centuries.
Nature 430: 105.
Figure 3.2.5. The distribution of studies that allow one to
NAS 2006. Surface Temperature Reconstructions for the
determine whether peak Medieval Warm Period temperatures were
warmer than, equivalent to, or cooler than peak Current Warm Last 2,000 Years. National Academy Press, Washington,
Period temperatures. DC.
National Assessment Synthesis Team. 2001. Climate
In the rest of this section, we highlight the results Change Impacts on the United States: The Potential
of studies from regions across the globe that show the Consequences of Climate Variability and Change, Report
existence of a Medieval Warm Period. Additional for the U.S. Global Change Research Program. Cambridge
information on this topic, including reviews on the University Press, Cambridge UK.
Medieval Warm Period not discussed here, can be Soon, W. and Baliunas, S. 2003. Proxy climatic and
found at http://www.co2science.org/subject/m/ environmental changes of the past 1000 years. Climate
subject_m.php under the heading Medieval Warm Research 23 (2): 89-110.
Period.
Wahl, E.R. and Ammann, C.M. 2007. Robustness of the
Mann, Bradley, Hughes reconstruction of Northern
Hemisphere surface temperatures: Examination of
References criticisms based on the nature and processing of proxy
climate evidence. Climate Change 85: 33-69.
Graybill, D.A. and Idso, S.B. 1993. Detecting the aerial
fertilization effect of atmospheric CO2 enrichment in tree Wegman, E., Scott, D.W. and Said, Y. 2006. Ad Hoc
ring chronologies. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 7:81–95. Committee Report to Chairman of the House Committee
on Energy & Commerce and to the Chairman of the House
IPCC. 2007-I. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science sub-committee on Oversight & Investigations on the
Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Hockey-stick Global Climate Reconstructions. US House
Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on of Representatives, Washington, DC. Available at
Climate Change. Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. http://energycommerce.house.gov/108/home/07142006
Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Wegman Report.pdf.
Miller. (Eds.) Cambridge University Press, Cambridge,
UK.
IPCC-TAR 2001. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific 3.2.2. Africa
Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third
Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Based on the temperature and water needs of the
Climate Change. Cambridge University Press. crops that were cultivated by the first agropastoralists
McIntyre, S. and McKitrick, R. 2003. Corrections to Mann of southern Africa, Huffman (1996) constructed a
et al. (1998) proxy data base and northern hemisphere climate history of the region based on archaeological
average temperature series. Energy & Environment 14: evidence acquired from various Iron Age settlements.
751-777. In the course of completing this project, dated relic
evidence of the presence of cultivated sorghum and
McIntyre, S. and McKitrick, R. 2005. Hockey sticks, millets was considered by Huffman to be so strong as
principal components and spurious significance.
Geophysical Research Letters 32 L03710.
to essentially prove that the climate of the
subcontinent-wide region must have been warmer and

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 Climate Change Reconsidered

wetter than it is today from approximately AD 900- long interval of coolness that preceded the Roman
1300, for these crops cannot be grown in this part of Warm Period], followed by warming between 1.5 and
southern Africa under current climatic conditions, 2.5 ka [the Roman Warm Period] and briefly at ~AD
which are much too cool and dry. 1200 [the Medieval Warm Period, which followed the
Other evidence for this conclusion comes from Dark Ages Cold Period],” after which “maximum
Tyson et al. (2000), who obtained a quasi-decadal Holocene cooling occurred at AD 1700 [the depth of
record of oxygen and carbon-stable isotope data from the Little Ice Age].” They also note that “the Little Ice
a well-dated stalagmite of Cold Air Cave in the Age covered the four centuries between AD 1500 and
Makapansgat Valley (30 km southwest of Pietersburg, 1800 and at its maximum at AD 1700 represents the
South Africa), which they augmented with five-year- most pronounced negative δ18O deviation in the entire
resolution temperature data that they reconstructed record.” This new temperature record from far below
from color variations in banded growth-layer the equator (24°S) reveals the existence of all of the
laminations of the stalagmite that were derived from a major millennial-scale oscillations of climate that are
relationship calibrated against actual air temperatures evident in data collected from regions surrounding the
obtained from a surrounding 49-station climatological North Atlantic Ocean.
network over the period 1981-1995, which had a Two years later, Kondrashov et al. (2005) applied
correlation of +0.78 that was significant at the 99 advanced spectral methods to fill data gaps and locate
percent confidence level. This record revealed the interannual and interdecadal periodicities in historical
existence of a significantly warmer-than-present records of annual low- and high-water levels on the
period that began prior to AD 1000 and lasted to Nile River over the 1,300-year period AD 622-1922.
about AD 1300. Tyson et al. report that the In doing so, several statistically significant
“maximum warming at Makapansgat at around 1250 periodicities were noted, including cycles at 256, 64,
produced conditions up to 3-4°C hotter than those of 19, 12, 7, 4.2 and 2.2 years. With respect to the causes
the present.” of these cycles, the three researchers say that the 4.2-
In a similar study, Holmgren et al. (2001) derived and 2.2-year oscillations are likely due to El Niño-
a 3,000-year temperature record for South Africa that Southern Oscillation variations, that the 7-year cycle
revealed several multi-century warm and cold may be related to North Atlantic influences, and that
periods. They found a dramatic warming at the longer-period oscillations could be due to
approximately AD 900, when temperatures reached a astronomical forcings. They also note that the annual-
level that was 2.5°C higher than that prevailing at the scale resolution of their results provides a “sharper
time of their analysis of the data. and more reliable determination of climatic-regime
Lamb et al. (2003) provided strong evidence for transitions” in tropical east Africa, including the
the hydrologic fingerprint of the Medieval Warm documentation of fairly abrupt shifts in river flow at
Period in Central Kenya in a study of pollen data the beginning and end of the Medieval Warm Period.
obtained from a sediment core taken from Crescent Ngomanda et al. (2007) derived high-resolution
Island Crater, which is a sub-basin of Lake Naivasha. (<40 years) paleoenvironmental reconstructions for
Of particular interest in this regard is the strong the past 1,500 years based on pollen and carbon
similarity between their results and those of isotope data obtained from sediment cores retrieved
Verschuren et al. (2000). The most striking of these from Lakes Kamalete and Nguene in the lowland
correspondences occurred over the period AD 980 to rainforest of Gabon. The nine researchers state that
1200, when lake-level was at an 1,100-year low and after a sharp rise at ~1200 cal yr BP, “A/H
woody taxa were significantly underrepresented in the [aquatic/hygrophytic] pollen ratios showed
pollen assemblage. intermediate values and varied strongly from 1150 to
Holmgren et al. (2003) developed a 25,000-year 870 cal yr BP, suggesting decadal-scale fluctuations
temperature history from a stalagmite retrieved from in the water balance during the ‘Medieval Warm
Makapansgat Valley’s Cold Air Cave based on δ18O Period’.” Thereafter, lower A/H pollen ratios
and δ13C measurements dated by 14C and high- “characterized the interval from ~500 to 300 cal yr
precision thermal ionization mass spectrometry using BP, indicating lower water levels during the ‘Little
the 230Th/234U method. This work revealed, in the Ice Age’.” In addition, they report that “all inferred
words of the nine researchers (together with our lake-level low stands, notably between 500 and 300
interspersed notes), that “cooling is evident from ~6 cal yr BP, are associated with decreases in the score
to 2.5ka [thousand years before present, during the of the TRFO [Tropical Rainforest] biome.”

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 Observations: Temperature Records

In discussing their findings, Ngomanda et al. state interpreted, it suggests that the warmth of the MWP
that “the positive co-variation between lake level and was likely even greater than that of the late twentieth
rainforest cover changes may indicate a direct century.
vegetational response to regional precipitation In light of these research findings, it appears that
variability,” noting that “evergreen rainforest (1) the Medieval Warm Period did occur over wide
expansion occurs during wet intervals, with reaches of Africa, and (2) the Medieval Warm Period
contraction during periods of drought.” It appears that was probably more extreme in Africa than has been
in this part of Western Equatorial Africa, the Little the Current Warm Period to this point in time.
Ice Age was a time of low precipitation, low lake Additional information on this topic, including
levels, and low evergreen rainforest presence, while reviews of newer publications as they become
much the opposite was the case during the Medieval available, can be found at http://www.co2science.org/
Warm Period, when fluctuating wet-dry conditions subject/a/africamwp.php.
led to fluctuating lake levels and a greater evergreen
rainforest presence.
Placing these findings within a broader temporal References
context, Ngomanda et al. additionally note that
“rainforest environments during the late Holocene in Buntgen, U., Frank, D.C., Nievergelt, D. and Esper, J.
western equatorial Africa are characterized by 2006. Summer temperature variations in the European
successive millennial-scale changes according to Alps, A.D. 755-2004. Journal of Climate 19: 5606-5623.
pollen (Elenga et al., 1994, 1996; Reynaud-Farrera et Delegue, A.M., Fuhr, M., Schwartz, D., Mariotti, A. and
al., 1996; Maley and Brenac, 1998; Vincens et al., Nasi, R. 2001. Recent origin of large part of the forest
1998), diatom (Nguetsop et al., 2004), geochemical cover in the Gabon coastal area based on stable carbon
(Delegue et al., 2001; Giresse et al., 1994), and isotope data. Oecologia 129: 106-113.
sedimentological data (Giresse et al., 2005; Wirrmann
Elenga, H., Maley, J., Vincens, A. and Farrera, I. 2004.
et al., 2001),” and that “these changes were
Palaeoenvironments, palaeoclimates and landscape
essentially driven by natural climatic variability development in Central Equatorial Africa: A review of
(Vincens et al., 1999; Elenga et al., 2004).” major terrestrial key sites covering the last 25 kyrs. In:
Esper et al. (2007) used Cedrus atlantica ring- Battarbee, R.W., Gasse, F. and Stickley, C.E. (Eds.) Past
width data “to reconstruct long-term changes in the Climate Variability through Europe and Africa. Springer,
Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) over the past pp. 181-196.
953 years in Morocco, Northwest Africa.” They
Elenga, H., Schwartz, D. and Vincens, A. 1994. Pollen
report “the long-term PDSI reconstruction indicates
evidence of Late Quaternary vegetation and inferred
generally drier conditions before ~1350, a transition climate changes in Congo. Palaeogeography,
period until ~1450, and generally wetter conditions Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology 109: 345-356.
until the 1970s,” after which there were “dry
conditions since the 1980s.” In addition, they Elenga, H., Schwartz, D., Vincens, A., Bertraux, J., de
determined that “the driest 20-year period Namur, C., Martin, L., Wirrmann, D. and Servant, M.
reconstructed is 1237-1256 (PDSI = -4.2),” adding 1996. Diagramme pollinique holocene du Lac Kitina
(Congo): mise en evidence de changements
that “1981-2000 conditions are in line with this
paleobotaniques et paleoclimatiques dans le massif
historical extreme (-3.9).” Also of significance, the forestier du Mayombe. Compte-Rendu de l’Academie des
six researchers note that “millennium-long Sciences, Paris, serie 2a: 345-356.
temperature reconstructions from Europe (Buntgen et
al., 2006) and the Northern Hemisphere (Esper et al., Esper, J., Cook, E.R. and Schweingruber, F.H. 2002. Low-
2002) indicate that Moroccan drought changes are frequency signals in long tree-ring chronologies for
broadly coherent with well-documented temperature reconstructing past temperature variability. Science 295:
2250-2253.
fluctuations including warmth during medieval times,
cold in the Little Ice Age, and recent anthropogenic Esper, J., Frank, D., Buntgen, U., Verstege, A.,
warming,” which latter coherency would tend to Luterbacher, J. and Xoplaki, E. 2007. Long-term drought
suggest that the peak warmth of the Medieval Warm severity variations in Morocco. Geophysical Research
Period was at least as great as that of the last two Letters 34: 10.1029/2007GL030844.
decades of the twentieth century throughout the entire Giresse, P., Maley, J. and Brenac, P. 1994. Late Quaternary
Northern Hemisphere; and, if the coherency is strictly palaeoenvironments in Lake Barombi Mbo (West

73
 Climate Change Reconsidered

Cameroon) deduced from pollen and carbon isotopes of Verschuren, D., Laird, K.R. and Cumming, B.F. 2000.
organic matter. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Rainfall and drought in equatorial east Africa during the
Palaeoecology 107: 65-78. past 1,100 years. Nature 403: 410-414.
Giresse, P., Maley, J. and Kossoni, A. 2005. Sedimentary Vincens, A., Schwartz, D., Bertaux, J., Elenga, H. and de
environmental changes and millennial climatic variability Namur, C. 1998. Late Holocene climatic changes in
in a tropical shallow lake (Lake Ossa, Cameroon) during Western Equatorial Africa inferred from pollen from Lake
the Holocene. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Sinnda, Southern Congo. Quaternary Research 50: 34-45.
Palaeoecology 218: 257-285.
Vincens, A., Schwartz, D., Elenga, H., Reynaud-Farrera, I.,
Holmgren, K., Lee-Thorp, J.A., Cooper, G.R.J., Lundblad, Alexandre, A., Bertauz, J., Mariotti, A., Martin, L.,
K., Partridge, T.C., Scott, L., Sithaldeen, R., Talma, A.S. Meunier, J.-D., Nguetsop, F., Servant, M., Servant-Vildary,
and Tyson, P.D. 2003. Persistent millennial-scale climatic S. and Wirrmann, D. 1999. Forest response to climate
variability over the past 25,000 years in Southern Africa. changes in Atlantic Equatorial Africa during the last 4000
Quaternary Science Reviews 22: 2311-2326. years BP and inheritance on the modern landscapes.
Journal of Biogeography 26: 879-885.
Holmgren, K., Tyson, P.D., Moberg, A. and Svanered, O.
2001. A preliminary 3000-year regional temperature Wirrmann, D., Bertaux, J. and Kossoni, A. 2001. Late
reconstruction for South Africa. South African Journal of Holocene paleoclimatic changes in Western Central Africa
Science 97: 49-51. inferred from mineral abundance in dated sediments from
Lake Ossa (Southwest Cameroon). Quaternary Research
Huffman, T.N. 1996. Archaeological evidence for climatic 56: 275-287.
change during the last 2000 years in southern Africa.
Quaternary International 33: 55-60.
Kondrashov, D., Feliks, Y. and Ghil, M. 2005. Oscillatory 3.2.3. Antarctica
modes of extended Nile River records (A.D. 622-1922).
Geophysical Research Letters 32: doi:10.1029/2004 Hemer and Harris (2003) extracted a sediment core
GL022156. from beneath the Amery Ice Shelf, East Antarctica, at
Lamb, H., Darbyshire, I. and Verschuren, D. 2003. a point that is currently about 80 km landward of the
Vegetation response to rainfall variation and human impact location of its present edge. In analyzing the core’s
in central Kenya during the past 1100 years. The Holocene characteristics over the past 5,700 14C years, the two
13: 285-292. scientists observed a peak in absolute diatom
abundance in general, and the abundance of
Maley, J. and Brenac, P. 1998. Vegetation dynamics,
paleoenvironments and climatic changes in the forests of Fragilariopsis curta in particular—which parameters,
western Cameroon during the last 28,000 years B.P. in their words, “are associated with increased
Review of Palaeobotany and Palynology 99: 157-187. proximity to an area of primary production, such as
the sea-ice zone”—at about 750 14C yr B.P., which
Ngomanda, A., Jolly, D., Bentaleb, I., Chepstow-Lusty, A., puts the time of maximum Ice Shelf retreat in close
Makaya, M., Maley, J., Fontugne, M., Oslisly, R. and proximity to the historical time frame of the Medieval
Rabenkogo, N. 2007. Lowland rainforest response to
Warm Period.
hydrological changes during the last 1500 years in Gabon,
Western Equatorial Africa. Quaternary Research 67: 411- Khim et al. (2002) likewise analyzed a sediment
425. core removed from the eastern Bransfield Basin just
off the northern tip of the Antarctic Peninsula,
Nguetsop, V.F., Servant-Vildary, S. and Servant, M. 2004. including grain size, total organic carbon content,
Late Holocene climatic changes in west Africa, a high magnetic susceptibility, biogenic silica content, 210Pb
resolution diatom record from equatorial Cameroon. geochronology, and radiocarbon (14C) age, all of
Quaternary Science Reviews 23: 591-609.
which data clearly depicted, in their words, the
Reynaud-Farrera, I., Maley, J. and Wirrmann, D. 1996. presence of the “Little Ice Age and Medieval Warm
Vegetation et climat dans les forets du Sud-Ouest period, together with preceding climatic events of
Cameroun depuis 4770 ans B.P.: analyse pollinique des similar intensity and duration.”
sediments du Lac Ossa. Compte-Rendu de l’Academie des Hall and Denton (2002) mapped the distribution
Sciences, Paris, serie 2a 322: 749-755. and elevation of surficial deposits along the southern
Tyson, P.D., Karlén, W., Holmgren, K. and Heiss, G.A. Scott Coast of Antarctica in the vicinity of the Wilson
2000. The Little Ice Age and medieval warming in South Piedmont Glacier, which runs parallel to the coast of
Africa. South African Journal of Science 96: 121-126. the western Ross Sea from McMurdo Sound north to

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 Observations: Temperature Records

Granite Harbor. The chronology of the raised beaches exhibited greater among-site variability in normalized
they studied was determined from more than 60 14C sulphate deposition than was observed thereafter.
dates of incorporated organic materials they had Citing Budner and Cole-Dai (2003) in noting that
previously collected from hand-dug excavations (Hall “the Antarctic polar vortex is involved in the
and Denton, 1999); the record the dates helped define distribution of stratospheric volcanic aerosols over the
demonstrated that near the end of the Medieval Warm continent,” Castellano et al. say that assuming the
Period, “as late as 890 14C yr BP,” as Hall and Denton intensity and persistence of the polar vortex in both
describe it, “the Wilson Piedmont Glacier was still the troposphere and stratosphere “affect the
less extensive than it is now,” demonstrating that the penetration of air masses to inland Antarctica,
climate of that period was in all likelihood isolating the continental area during cold periods and
considerably warmer than it is currently. facilitating the advection of peripheral air masses
Noon et al. (2003) used oxygen isotopes during warm periods (Krinner and Genthon, 1998),
preserved in authigenic carbonate retrieved from we support the hypothesis that the pattern of volcanic
freshwater sediments of Sombre Lake on Signy Island deposition intensity and geographical variability
(60°43’S, 45°38’W) in the Southern Ocean to [higher values at coastal sites] could reflect a warmer
construct a 7,000-year history of that region’s climate. climate of Antarctica in the early last millennium,”
This work revealed that the general trend of and that “the re-establishment of colder conditions,
temperature at the study site has been downward. Of starting in about AD 1500, reduced the variability of
most interest to us, however, is the millennial-scale volcanic depositions.”
oscillation of climate that is apparent in much of the Describing this phenomenon in terms of what it
record. This climate cycle is such that approximately implies, Castellano et al. say “this warm/cold step
2,000 years ago, after a thousand-year gap in the data, could be like a Medieval Climate Optimum-like to
Signy Island experienced the relative warmth of the Little Ice Age-like transition.” They additionally cite
last vestiges of the Roman Warm Period, as Goosse et al. (2004) as reporting evidence from
delineated by McDermott et al. (2001) on the basis of Antarctic ice-core δD and δ18O data “in support of a
a high-resolution speleothem δ18O record from Medieval Warming-like period in the Southern
southwest Ireland. Then comes the Dark Ages Cold Hemisphere, delayed by about 150 years with respect
period, which is also contemporaneous with what to Northern Hemisphere Medieval Warming.” The
McDermott et al. observe in the Northern researchers conclude by postulating that “changes in
Hemisphere, after which the Medieval Warm Period the extent and intra-Antarctic variability of volcanic
appears at the same point in time and persists for the depositional fluxes may have been consequences of
same length of time that it does in the vicinity of the establishment of a Medieval Warming-like period
Ireland, whereupon the Little Ice Age sets in just as it that lasted until about AD 1500.”
does in the Northern Hemisphere. Finally, there is an A year later, Hall et al. (2006) collected skin and
indication of late twentieth century warming, but with hair (and even some whole-body mummified
still a long way to go before conditions comparable to remains) from Holocene raised-beach excavations at
those of the Medieval Warm Period are achieved. various locations along Antarctica’s Victoria Land
Two years later, Castellano et al. (2005) derived a Coast, which they identified by both visual inspection
detailed history of Holocene volcanism from the and DNA analysis as coming from southern elephant
sulfate record of the first 360 meters of the Dome seals, and which they analyzed for age by radiocarbon
Concordia ice core that covered the period 0-11.5 kyr dating. By these means they obtained data from 14
BP, after which they compared their results for the different locations within their study region—which
past millennium with similar results obtained from they describe as being “well south” of the seals’
eight other Antarctic ice cores. Before doing so, current “core sub-Antarctic breeding and molting
however, they normalized the results at each site by grounds”—that indicate that the period of time they
dividing its several volcanic-induced sulfate denominate the Seal Optimum began about 600 BC
deposition values by the value produced at that site by and ended about AD1400, the latter of which dates
the AD 1816 Tambora eruption, in order to reduce they describe as being “broadly contemporaneous
deposition differences among sites that might have with the onset of Little Ice Age climatic conditions in
been induced by differences in local site the Northern Hemisphere and with glacier advance
characteristics. This work revealed that most volcanic near [Victoria Land’s] Terra Nova Bay.”
events in the early last millennium (AD 1000-1500)

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 Climate Change Reconsidered

In describing the significance of their findings, available, can be found at http://www.co2science.org/

the US, British, and Italian researchers say they are subject/a/antarcticmwp.php.
indicative of “warmer-than-present climate
conditions” at the times and locations of the identified
presence of the southern elephant seal, and that “if, as References
proposed in the literature, the [Ross] ice shelf
survived this period, it would have been exposed to Budner, D. and Cole-Dai, J. 2003. The number and
environments substantially warmer than present,” magnitude of large explosive volcanic eruptions between
which would have included both the Roman Warm 904 and 1865 A.D.: Quantitative evidence from a new
Period and Medieval Warm Period. South Pole ice core. In: Robock, A. and Oppenheimer, C.
(Eds.) Volcanism and the Earth’s Atmosphere, Geophysics
More recently, Williams et al. (2007) presented
Monograph Series 139: 165-176.
methyl chloride (CH3Cl) measurements of air
extracted from a 300-m ice core that was obtained at Castellano, E., Becagli, S., Hansson, M., Hutterli, M., Petit,
the South Pole, Antarctica, covering the time period J.R., Rampino, M.R., Severi, M., Steffensen, J.P., Traversi,
160 BC to AD 1860. In describing what they found, R. and Udisti, R. 2005. Holocene volcanic history as
the researchers say “CH3Cl levels were elevated from recorded in the sulfate stratigraphy of the European Project
900-1300 AD by about 50 ppt relative to the previous for Ice Coring in Antarctica Dome C (EDC96) ice core.
Journal of Geophysical Research 110: 10.1029/JD005259.
1000 years, coincident with the warm Medieval
Climate Anomaly (MCA),” and that they “decreased Goosse, H., Masson-Delmotte, V., Renssen, H., Delmotte,
to a minimum during the Little Ice Age cooling M., Fichefet, T., Morgan, V., van Ommen, T., Khim, B.K.
(1650-1800 AD), before rising again to the modern and Stenni, B. 2004. A late medieval warm period in the
atmospheric level of 550 ppt.” Noting that “today, Southern Ocean as a delayed response to external forcing.
more than 90% of the CH3Cl sources and the majority Geophysical Research Letters 31: 10.1029/2003GL019140.
of CH3Cl sinks lie between 30°N and 30°S (Khalil Hall, B.L. and Denton, G.H. 1999. New relative sea-level
and Rasmussen, 1999; Yoshida et al., 2004),” they curves for the southern Scott Coast, Antarctica: evidence
say “it is likely that climate-controlled variability in for Holocene deglaciation of the western Ross Sea. Journal
CH3Cl reflects changes in tropical and subtropical of Quaternary Science 14: 641-650.
conditions.” They go on to say that “ice core CH3Cl
Hall, B.L. and Denton, G.H. 2002. Holocene history of the
variability over the last two millennia suggests a
Wilson Piedmont Glacier along the southern Scott Coast,
positive relationship between atmospheric CH3Cl and Antarctica. The Holocene 12: 619-627.
global [our italics] mean temperature.”
As best we can determine from the graphical Hall, B.L., Hoelzel, A.R., Baroni, C., Denton, G.H., Le
representation of their data, the peak CH3Cl Boeuf, B.J., Overturf, B. and Topf, A.L. 2006. Holocene
concentration measured by Williams et al. during the elephant seal distribution implies warmer-than-present
MCA is approximately 533 ppt, which is within 3 climate in the Ross Sea. Proceedings of the National
Academy of Sciences USA 103: 10,213-10,217.
percent of its current mean value of 550 ppt and well
within the range of 520 to 580 ppt that characterizes Hemer, M.A. and Harris, P.T. 2003. Sediment core from
methyl chloride’s current variability. Hence, we may beneath the Amery Ice Shelf, East Antarctica, suggests
validly conclude that the mean peak temperature of mid-Holocene ice-shelf retreat. Geology 31: 127-130.
the MCA (which we refer to as the Medieval Warm
Khalil, M.A.K. and Rasmussen, R.A. 1999. Atmospheric
Period) over the latitude range 30°N to 30°S—and methyl chloride. Atmospheric Environment 33: 1305-1321.
possibly over the entire globe—may not have been
materially different from the mean peak temperature Khim, B-K., Yoon, H.I., Kang, C.Y. and Bahk, J.J. 2002.
so far attained during the Current Warm Period. Unstable climate oscillations during the Late Holocene in
This conclusion, along with the findings of the the Eastern Bransfield Basin, Antarctic Peninsula.
other studies we have reviewed of the climate of Quaternary Research 58: 234-245.
Antarctica, suggests there is nothing unusual, Krinner, G. and Genthon, C. 1998. GCM simulations of the
unnatural, or unprecedented about the current level of Last Glacial Maximum surface climate of Greenland and
earth’s warmth. Antarctica. Climate Dynamics 14: 741-758.
Additional information on this topic, including
McDermott, F., Mattey, D.P. and Hawkesworth, C. 2001.
reviews of newer publications as they become
Centennial-scale Holocene climate variability revealed by a

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 Observations: Temperature Records

high-resolution speleothem ð18O record from SW Ireland. numbers of seabirds during that “medieval warm
Science 294: 1328-1331. period,” as they describe it, which had been preceded
Noon, P.E., Leng, M.J. and Jones, V.J. 2003. Oxygen- by a several-hundred-year period (Dark Ages Cold
isotope (ð18O) evidence of Holocene hydrological changes Period) of little to no bird presence. Thereafter, their
at Signy Island, maritime Antarctica. The Holocene 13: data suggest another absence of birds during what
251-263. they call “a subsequent Little Ice Age,” which they
note was “the coldest period since the early Holocene
Williams, M.B., Aydin, M., Tatum, C. and Saltzman, E.S. in East Greenland.”
2007. A 2000 year atmospheric history of methyl chloride
The Raffels So data also show signs of a
from a South Pole ice core: Evidence for climate-controlled
variability. Geophysical Research Letters 34: “resettlement of seabirds during the last 100 years,
10.1029/2006GL029142. indicated by an increase of organic matter in the lake
sediment and confirmed by bird observations.”
Yoshida, Y., Wang, Y.H., Zeng, T. and Yantosea, R. 2004. However, values of the most recent measurements are
A three-dimensional global model study of atmospheric not as great as those obtained from the earlier
methyl chloride budget and distributions. Journal of Medieval Warm Period, which indicates that higher
Geophysical Research 109: 10.1029/2004JD004951.
temperatures prevailed during the period from 1,100
to 700 years BP than what has been observed over the
3.2.4. Arctic most recent hundred years.
A third relevant Greenland study was conducted
Dahl-Jensen et al. (1998) used temperature by Kaplan et al. (2002), who derived a climatic
measurements from two Greenland Ice Sheet history of the Holocene by analyzing the physical-
boreholes to reconstruct the temperature history of chemical properties of sediments obtained from a
this portion of the earth over the past 50,000 years. small lake in southern Greenland. They determined
Their data indicate that after the termination of the that the interval from 6,000 to 3,000 years BP was
glacial period, temperatures steadily rose to a marked by warmth and stability, but that the climate
maximum of 2.5°C warmer than at present during the cooled thereafter until its culmination in the Little Ice
Holocene Climatic Optimum (4,000 to 7,000 years Age. From 1,300-900 years BP, however, there was a
ago). The Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age partial amelioration during the Medieval Warm
were also documented in the record, with Period, which was associated with an approximate
temperatures 1°C warmer and 0.5-0.7°C cooler than 1.5°C rise in temperature.
at present, respectively. After the Little Ice Age, they In a non-Greenland Arctic study, Jiang et al.
report that temperatures once again rose, but that they (2002) analyzed diatom assemblages from a high-
“have decreased during the last decades.” These resolution core extracted from the seabed of the north
results thus clearly indicate that the Medieval Warm Icelandic shelf to reconstruct a 4,600-year history of
Period in this part of the Arctic was significantly mean summer sea surface temperature at that
warmer than current temperatures. location. Starting from a maximum value of about
Wagner and Melles (2001) also worked on 8.1°C at 4,400 years BP, the climate was found to
Greenland, where they extracted a 3.5-m-long have cooled fitfully for about 1,700 years and then
sediment core from a lake (Raffels So) on an island more consistently over the final 2,700 years of the
(Raffles O) located just off Liverpool Land on the record. The most dramatic departure from this long-
east coast of Greenland, which they analyzed for a term decline was centered on about 850 years BP,
number of properties related to the past presence of during the Medieval Warm Period, when the
seabirds there, obtaining a 10,000-year record that temperature rose by more than 1°C above the line
tells us much about the region’s climatic history. Key describing the long-term downward trend to effect an
to the study were biogeochemical data that, in the almost complete recovery from the colder
words of the researchers, reflect “variations in seabird temperatures of the Dark Ages Cold Period, after
breeding colonies in the catchment which influence which temperatures continued their descent into the
nutrient and cadmium supply to the lake.” Little Ice Age, ending with a final most recent value
Wagner and Melles’ data reveal sharp increases of approximately 6.3°C. These data also clearly
in the values of the parameters they measured indicate that the Medieval Warm Period in this part of
between about 1100 and 700 years before present the Arctic was significantly warmer than it is there
(BP), indicative of the summer presence of significant now.

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 Climate Change Reconsidered

Moore et al. (2001) analyzed sediment cores from century,” which “Little Ice Age,” in their words, is
Donard Lake, Baffin Island, Canada, producing a also “known from instrumental, historical and proxy
1,240-year record of average summer temperatures records.” Going back further in time, the tree-ring
for this Arctic region. Over the entire period from AD record displays several more of these relatively
750-1990, temperatures averaged 2.9°C. However, warmer and colder periods. They report that “the
anomalously warm decades with summer relatively warm conditions of the late twentieth
temperatures as high as 4°C occurred around AD century do not exceed those reconstructed for several
1000 and 1100, while at the beginning of the earlier time intervals.”
thirteenth century, Donard Lake witnessed “one of the Seppa and Birks (2002) used a recently developed
largest climatic transitions in over a millennium,” as pollen-climate reconstruction model and a new pollen
“average summer temperatures rose rapidly by nearly stratigraphy from Toskaljarvi—a tree-line lake in the
2°C from 1195-1220 AD, ending in the warmest continental sector of northern Fenoscandia (located
decade in the record” with temperatures near 4.5°C. just above 69°N latitude)—to derive quantitative
This rapid warming of the thirteenth century was estimates of annual precipitation and July mean
followed by a period of extended warmth that lasted temperature. As they describe it, their reconstructions
until an abrupt cooling event occurred around 1375 “agree with the traditional concept of a ‘Medieval
and made the following decade one of the coldest in Warm Period’ (MWP) and ‘Little Ice Age’ in the
the record. This event signaled the onset of the Little North Atlantic region (Dansgaard et al., 1975) and in
Ice Age, which lasted for 400 years, until a gradual northern Fennoscandia (Korhola et al., 2000).” In
warming trend began about 1800, which was addition, they report there is “a clear correlation
followed by a dramatic cooling event in 1900 that between [their] MWP reconstruction and several
brought temperatures back to levels similar to those records from Greenland ice cores,” and that
of the Little Ice Age. This cold regime lasted until “comparisons of a smoothed July temperature record
about 1950, whereupon temperatures warmed for from Toskaljavri with measured borehole
about two decades but then tended downwards again temperatures of the GRIP and Dye 3 ice cores (Dahl-
all the way to the end of the record in 1990. Hence, in Jensen et al., 1998) and the δ18O record from the
this part of the Arctic the Medieval Warm Period was Crete ice core (Dansgaard et al., 1975) show the
also warmer than it is there currently. strong similarity in timing of the MWP between the
Grudd et al. (2002) assembled tree-ring widths records.” Finally, they note that “July temperature
from 880 living, dead, and subfossil northern Swedish values during the Medieval Warm Period (ca. 1400-
pines into a continuous and precisely dated 1000 cal yr B.P.) were ca. 0.8°C higher than at
chronology covering the period 5407 BC to AD 1997. present,” where present means the last six decades of
The strong association between these data and the twentieth century.
summer (June-August) mean temperatures of the last Noting that temperature changes in high latitudes
129 years of the period then enabled them to produce are (1) sensitive indicators of global temperature
a 7,400-year history of summer mean temperature for changes, and that they can (2) serve as a basis for
northern Swedish Lapland. verifying climate model calculations, Naurzbaev et al.
The most dependable portion of this record, based (2002) developed a 2,427-year proxy temperature
upon the number of trees that were sampled, consisted history for the part of the Taimyr Peninsula of
of the last two millennia, which the authors say northern Russia that lies between 70°30’ and 72°28’
“display features of century-timescale climatic North latitude, based on a study of ring-widths of
variation known from other proxy and historical living and preserved larch trees, noting further that “it
sources, including a warm ‘Roman’ period in the first has been established that the main driver of tree-ring
centuries AD and a generally cold ‘Dark Ages’ variability at the polar timber-line [where they
climate from about AD 500 to about AD 900.” They worked] is temperature (Vaganov et al., 1996; Briffa
also note that “the warm period around AD 1000 may et al., 1998; Schweingruber and Briffa, 1996).” In
correspond to a so-called ‘Mediaeval Warm Period,’ doing so, they found that “the warmest periods over
known from a variety of historical sources and other the last two millennia in this region were clearly in
proxy records.” Lastly, they say “the climatic the third [Roman Warm Period], tenth to twelfth
deterioration in the twelfth century can be regarded as [Medieval Warm Period] and during the twentieth
the starting point of a prolonged cold period that [Current Warm Period] centuries.”
continued to the first decade of the twentieth

78
 Observations: Temperature Records

With respect to the second of these periods, they similar loss of ions and washout ratios as the earliest
emphasize that “the warmth of the two centuries AD part of the core.” They then state that “this suggests
1058-1157 and 950-1049 attests to the reality of that the Medieval Warm Period in Svalbard summer
relative mediaeval warmth in this region.” Their data conditions [was] as warm (or warmer) as present-day,
also reveal three other important pieces of consistent with the Northern Hemisphere temperature
information: (1) the Roman and Medieval Warm reconstruction of Moberg et al. (2005).” In addition,
Periods were both warmer than the Current Warm they conclude that “the degree of summer melt was
Period has been to date, (2) the “beginning of the significantly larger during the period 1130-1300 than
end” of the Little Ice Age was somewhere in the in the 1990s,” which likewise suggests that a large
vicinity of 1830, and (3) the Current Warm Period portion of the Medieval Warm Period was
peaked somewhere in the vicinity of 1940. All of significantly warmer than the peak warmth (1990s) of
these observations are at odds with what is portrayed the Current Warm Period.
in the thousand-year Northern Hemispheric “hockey Besonen et al. (2008) derived thousand-year
stick” temperature history of Mann et al. (1998, 1999) histories of varve thickness and sedimentation
and its thousand-year global extension developed by accumulation rate for Canada’s Lower Murray Lake
Mann and Jones (2003). (81°20’N, 69°30’W), which is typically covered for
Knudsen et al. (2004) documented climatic about 11 months of each year by ice that reaches a
changes over the past 1,200 years by means of high- thickness of 1.5 to 2 meters at the end of each winter.
resolution multi-proxy studies of benthic and With respect to these parameters, they say—citing
planktonic foraminiferal assemblages, stable isotopes, seven other studies—that “field-work on other High
and ice-rafted debris found in three sediment cores Arctic lakes clearly indicates that sediment transport
retrieved from the North Icelandic shelf. This work and varve thickness are related to temperatures during
revealed that “the time period between 1200 and the short summer season that prevails in this region,
around 7,800 cal. years BP, including the Medieval and we have no reason to think that this is not the
Warm Period, was characterized by relatively high case for Lower Murray Lake.”
bottom and surface water temperatures,” after which They found “the twelfth and thirteenth centuries
“a general temperature decrease in the area marks the were relatively warm,” with their data indicating that
transition to ... the Little Ice Age.” They also note that Lower Murray Lake and its environs were often much
“minimum sea-surface temperatures were reached at warmer during this time period (AD 1080-1320) than
around 350 cal. BP, when very cold conditions were they were at any point in the twentieth century, which
indicated by several proxies.” Thereafter, they say “a has also been shown to be the case for Donard Lake
modern warming of surface waters ... is not [our (66.25°N, 62°W) by Moore et al. (2001).
italics] registered in the proxy data,” and that “there is The studies reviewed above indicate that the
no clear indication of warming of water masses in the Arctic—which climate models suggest should be
area during the last decades,” even in sea surface sensitive to greenhouse-gas-induced warming—is still
temperatures measured over the period 1948-2002. not as warm as it was many centuries ago during
Grinsted et al. (2006) developed “a model of portions of the Medieval Warm Period, when there
chemical fractionation in ice based on differing was much less CO2 and methane in the air than there
elution rates for pairs of ions ... as a proxy for is today. This further suggests the planet’s more
summer melt (1130-1990),” based on data obtained modest current warmth need not be the result of
from a 121-meter-long ice core they extracted from historical increases in these two greenhouse gases.
the highest ice field in Svalbard (Lomonosovfonna: Additional information on this topic, including
78°51’53”N, 17°25’30”E), which was “validated reviews of newer publications as they become
against twentieth-century instrumental records and available, can be found at http://www.co2science.org/
longer historical climate proxies.” This history subject/a/arcticmwp.php.
indicated that “in the oldest part of the core (1130-
1200), the washout indices [were] more than 4 times
as high as those seen during the last century, References
indicating a high degree of runoff.” In addition, they
report they have performed regular snow pit studies Besonen, M.R., Patridge, W., Bradley, R.S., Francus, P.,
near the ice core site since 1997 (Virkkunen, 2004) Stoner, J.S. and Abbott, M.B. 2008. A record of climate
and that “the very warm 2001 summer resulted in over the last millennium based on varved lake sediments
from the Canadian High Arctic. The Holocene 18: 169-180.

79
 Climate Change Reconsidered

Briffa, K.R., Schweingruber, F.H., Jones, P.D., Osborn, Moberg, A., Sonechkin, D.M., Holmgren, K., Datsenko,
T.J., Shiyatov, S.G. and Vaganov, E.A. 1998. Reduced N.M. and Karlén, W. 2005. Highly variable Northern
sensitivity of recent tree-growth to temperature at high Hemisphere temperatures reconstructed from low- and
northern latitudes. Nature 391: 678-682. high-resolution proxy data. Nature 433: 613-617.
Dahl-Jensen, D., Mosegaard, K., Gundestrup, N., Clow, Moore, J.J., Hughen, K.A., Miller, G.H. and Overpeck, J.T.
G.D., Johnsen, S.J., Hansen, A.W. and Balling, N. 1998. 2001. Little Ice Age recorded in summer temperature
Past temperatures directly from the Greenland Ice Sheet. reconstruction from varved sediments of Donard Lake,
Science 282: 268-271. Baffin Island, Canada. Journal of Paleolimnology 25: 503-
517.
Dansgaard, W., Johnsen, S.J., Gundestrup, N., Clausen,
H.B. and Hammer, C.U. 1975. Climatic changes, Naurzbaev, M.M., Vaganov, E.A., Sidorova, O.V. and
Norsemen and modern man. Nature 255: 24-28. Schweingruber, F.H. 2002. Summer temperatures in
eastern Taimyr inferred from a 2427-year late-Holocene
Grinsted, A., Moore, J.C., Pohjola, V., Martma, T. and tree-ring chronology and earlier floating series. The
Isaksson, E. 2006. Svalbard summer melting, Holocene 12: 727-736.
continentality, and sea ice extent from the
Lomonosovfonna ice core. Journal of Geophysical Schweingruber, F.H. and Briffa, K.R. 1996. Tree-ring
Research 111: 10.1029/2005JD006494. density network and climate reconstruction. In: Jones, P.D.,
Bradley, R.S. and Jouzel, J. (Eds.), Climatic Variations and
Grudd, H., Briffa, K.R., Karlén, W., Bartholin, T.S., Jones, Forcing Mechanisms of the Last 2000 Years, NATO ASI
P.D. and Kromer, B. 2002. A 7400-year tree-ring Series 141. Springer-Verlag, Berlin, Germany, pp. 43-66.
chronology in northern Swedish Lapland: natural climatic
variability expressed on annual to millennial timescales. Seppa, H. and Birks, H.J.B. 2002. Holocene climate
The Holocene 12: 657-665. reconstructions from the Fennoscandian tree-line area
based on pollen data from Toskaljavri. Quaternary
Jiang, H., Seidenkrantz, M-S., Knudsen, K.L. and Research 57: 191-199.
Eiriksson, J. 2002. Late-Holocene summer sea-surface
temperatures based on a diatom record from the north Vaganov, E.A., Shiyatov, S.G. and Mazepa, V.S. 1996.
Icelandic shelf. The Holocene 12: 137-147. Dendroclimatic Study in Ural-Siberian Subarctic. Nauka,
Novosibirsk, Russia.
Kaplan, M.R., Wolfe, A.P. and Miller, G.H. 2002.
Holocene environmental variability in southern Greenland Virkkunen, K. 2004. Snowpit Studies in 2001-2002 in
inferred from lake sediments. Quaternary Research 58: Lomonosovfonna, Svalbard. M.S. Thesis, University of
149-159. Oulu, Oulu, Finland.
Knudsen, K.L., Eiriksson, J., Jansen, E., Jiang, H., Rytter, Wagner, B. and Melles, M. 2001. A Holocene seabird
F. and Gudmundsdottir, E.R. 2004. Palaeoceanographic record from Raffles So sediments, East Greenland, in
changes off North Iceland through the last 1200 years: response to climatic and oceanic changes. Boreas 30: 228-
foraminifera, stable isotopes, diatoms and ice rafted debris. 239.
Quaternary Science Reviews 23: 2231-2246.
Korhola, A., Weckstrom, J., Holmstrom, L. and Erasto, P. 3.2.5. Asia
2000. A quantitative Holocene climatic record from
diatoms in northern Fennoscandia. Quaternary Research 3.2.5.1. China
54: 284-294.
Mann, M.E., Bradley, R.S. and Hughes, M.K. 1998. Using a variety of climate records derived from peat,
Global-scale temperature patterns and climate forcing over lake sediment, ice core, tree-ring and other proxy
the past six centuries. Nature 392: 779-787. sources, Yang et al. (2002) identified a period of
Mann, M.E., Bradley, R.S. and Hughes, M.K. 1999. exceptional warmth throughout China between AD
Northern Hemisphere temperatures during the past 800 and 1100. Yafeng et al. (1999) also observed a
millennium: Inferences, uncertainties, and limitations. warm period between AD 970 and 1510 in δ18O data
Geophysical Research Letters 26: 759-762. obtained from the Guliya ice cap of the Qinghai-Tibet
Plateau. Similarly, Hong et al. (2000) developed a
Mann, M.E. and Jones, P.D. 2003. Global surface
6,000-year δ18O record from plant cellulose deposited
temperatures over the past two millennia. Geophysical
Research Letters 30: 10.1029/2003GL017814.
in a peat bog in the Jilin Province (42° 20’ N, 126°
22’ E), within which they found evidence of “an
obvious warm period represented by the high δ18O

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 Observations: Temperature Records

from around AD 1100 to 1200 which may correspond Among the climatic episodes evident in their data
to the Medieval Warm Epoch of Europe.” were “those corresponding to the Medieval Warm
Shortly thereafter, Xu et al. (2002) determined Period, Little Ice Age and 20th-century warming,
from a study of plant cellulose δ18O variations in lending support to the global extent of these events.”
cores retrieved from peat deposits at the northeastern In terms of timing, the dry-then-wet-then-dry-again
edge of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau that from AD MWP began about AD 965 and continued to
1100-1300 “the δ18O of Hongyuan peat cellulose approximately AD 1475.
increased, consistent with that of Jinchuan peat Also working with a stalagmite, this one from
cellulose and corresponding to the ‘Medieval Warm Jingdong Cave about 90 km northeast of Beijing, Ma
Period’.” In addition, Qian and Zhu (2002) analyzed et al. (2003) assessed the climatic history of the past
the thickness of laminae in a stalagmite found in 3,000 years at 100-year intervals on the basis of δ18O
Shihua Cave, Beijing, from whence they inferred the data, the Mg/Sr ratio, and the solid-liquid distribution
existence of a relatively wet period running from coefficient of Mg. They found that between 200 and
approximately AD 940 to 1200. 500 years ago, “air temperature was about 1.2°C
Hong et al. (2000) also report that at the time of lower than that of the present,” but that between 1,000
the MWP “the northern boundary of the cultivation of and 1,300 years ago, there was an equally aberrant but
citrus tree (Citrus reticulata Blanco) and Boehmeria warm period that “corresponded to the Medieval
nivea (a perennial herb), both subtropical and Warm Period in Europe.”
thermophilous plants, moved gradually into the Based on 200 sets of phenological and
northern part of China, and it has been estimated that meteorological records extracted from a number of
the annual mean temperature was 0.9-1.0°C higher historical sources, many of which are described by
than at present.” Considering the climatic conditions Gong and Chen (1980), Man (1990, 2004), Sheng
required to successfully grow these plants, they (1990), and Wen and Wen (1996), Ge et al. (2003)
further note that annual mean temperatures in that produced a 2,000-year history of winter half-year
part of the country during the Medieval Warm Period temperature (October to April, when CO2-induced
must have been about 1.0°C higher than at present, global warming is projected to be most evident) for
with extreme January minimum temperatures fully the region of China bounded by latitudes 27° and
3.5°C warmer than they are today, citing De’er 40°N and longitudes 107° and 120°E. Their work
(1994). revealed a significant warm epoch that lasted from the
Chu et al. (2002) studied the geochemistry of AD 570s to the 1310s, the peak warmth of which was
1,400 years of dated sediments recovered from seven “about 0.3-0.6°C higher than present for 30-year
cores taken from three locations in Lake Huguangyan periods, but over 0.9°C warmer on a 10-year basis.”
(21°9’N, 110°17’E) on the low-lying Leizhou Bao et al. (2003) utilized proxy climate records
Peninsula in the tropical region of South China, (ice-core δ18O, peat-cellulose δ18O, tree-ring widths,
together with information about the presence of snow, tree-ring stable carbon isotopes, total organic carbon,
sleet, frost, and frozen rivers over the past 1,000 years lake water temperatures, glacier fluctuations, ice-core
obtained from historical documents. They report that CH4, magnetic parameters, pollen assemblages, and
“recent publications based on the phenological sedimentary pigments) obtained from 20 prior studies
phenomena, distribution patterns of subtropical plants to derive a 2,000-year temperature history of the
and cold events (Wang and Gong, 2000; Man, 1998; northeastern, southern and western sections of the
Wu and Dang, 1998; Zhang, 1994) argue for a warm Tibetan Plateau. In each case, there was more than
period from the beginning of the tenth century AD to one prior 50-year period of time when the mean
the late thirteenth century AD,” as their own data also temperature of each region was warmer than it was
suggest. In addition, they note there was a major dry over the most recent 50-year period. In the case of the
period from AD 880-1260, and that “local historical northeastern sector of the plateau, all of the
chronicles support these data, suggesting that the maximum-warmth intervals occurred during the
climate of tropical South China was dry during the Medieval Warm Period; in the case of the western
‘Mediaeval Warm Period’.” sector, they occurred near the end of the Roman
Paulsen et al. (2003) used high-resolution δ13C Warm Period, and in the case of the southern sector
and δ18O data derived from a stalagmite found in they occurred during both warm periods.
Buddha Cave [33°40’N, 109°05’E] to infer changes From these several studies, it is evident that for a
in climate in central China for the past 1,270 years. considerable amount of time during the Medieval

81
 Climate Change Reconsidered

Warm Period, many parts of China exhibited warmer Paulsen, D.E., Li, H.-C. and Ku, T.-L. 2003. Climate
conditions than those of modern times. Since those variability in central China over the last 1270 years
earlier high temperatures were caused by something revealed by high-resolution stalagmite records. Quaternary
other than high atmospheric CO2 concentrations, Science Reviews 22: 691-701.
whatever was responsible for them could be Qian, W. and Zhu, Y. 2002. Little Ice Age climate near
responsible for the warmth of today. Beijing, China, inferred from historical and stalagmite
Additional information on this topic, including records. Quaternary Research 57: 109-119.
reviews of newer publications as they become
Sheng, F. 1990. A preliminary exploration of the warmth
available, can be found at http://www.co2science.org/
and coldness in Henan Province in the historical period.
subject/m/mwpchina.php. Historical Geography 7: 160-170.
Wang, S.W. and Gong, D.Y. 2000. The temperature of
References several typical periods during the Holocene in China. The
Advance in Nature Science 10: 325-332.
Bao, Y., Brauning, A. and Yafeng, S. 2003. Late Holocene Wen, H. and Wen, H. 1996. Winter-Half-Year Cold/Warm
temperature fluctuations on the Tibetan Plateau. Change in Historical Period of China. Science Press,
Quaternary Science Reviews 22: 2335-2344. Beijing, China.
Chu, G., Liu, J., Sun, Q., Lu, H., Gu, Z., Wang, W. and Wu, H.Q. and Dang, A.R. 1998. Fluctuation and
Liu, T. 2002. The ‘Mediaeval Warm Period’ drought characteristics of climate change in temperature of Sui-
recorded in Lake Huguangyan, tropical South China. The Tang times in China. Quaternary Sciences 1: 31-38.
Holocene 12: 511-516.
Xu, H., Hong, Y., Lin, Q., Hong, B., Jiang, H. and Zhu, Y.
De’er, Z. 1994. Evidence for the existence of the medieval 2002. Temperature variations in the past 6000 years
warm period in China. Climatic Change 26: 289-297. inferred from δ18O of peat cellulose from Hongyuan,
Ge, Q., Zheng, J., Fang, X., Man, Z., Zhang, X., Zhang, P. China. Chinese Science Bulletin 47: 1578-1584.
and Wang, W.-C. 2003. Winter half-year temperature Yafeng, S., Tandong, Y. and Bao, Y. 1999. Decadal
reconstruction for the middle and lower reaches of the climatic variations recorded in Guliya ice core and
Yellow River and Yangtze River, China, during the past comparison with the historical documentary data from East
2000 years. The Holocene 13: 933-940. China during the last 2000 years. Science in China Series
Gong, G. and Chen, E. 1980. On the variation of the D-Earth Sciences 42 Supp.: 91-100.
growing season and agriculture. Scientia Atmospherica Yang, B., Braeuning, A., Johnson, K.R. and Yafeng, S.
Sinica 4: 24-29. 2002. General characteristics of temperature variation in
Hong, Y.T., Jiang, H.B., Liu, T.S., Zhou, L.P., Beer, J., Li, China during the last two millennia. Geophysical Research
H.D., Leng, X.T., Hong, B. and Qin, X.G. 2000. Response Letters 29: 10.1029/2001GL014485.
of climate to solar forcing recorded in a 6000-year δ18O Zhang, D.E. 1994. Evidence for the existence of the
time-series of Chinese peat cellulose. The Holocene 10: 1- Medieval Warm Period in China. Climatic Change 26:
7. 287-297.
Ma, Z., Li, H., Xia, M., Ku, T., Peng, Z., Chen, Y. and
Zhang, Z. 2003. Paleotemperature changes over the past
3000 years in eastern Beijing, China: A reconstruction 3.2.5.2. Russia
based on Mg/Sr records in a stalagmite. Chinese Science
Bulletin 48: 395-400. Demezhko and Shchapov (2001) studied a borehole
extending to more than 5 km depth, reconstructing an
Man, M.Z. 1998. Climate in Tang Dynasty of China:
discussion for its evidence. Quaternary Sciences 1: 20-30. 80,000-year history of ground surface temperature in
the Middle Urals within the western rim of the Tagil
Man, Z. 1990. Study on the cold/warm stages of Tang subsidence (58°24’ N, 59°44’E). The reconstructed
Dynasty and the characteristics of each cold/warm stage. temperature history revealed the existence of a
Historical Geography 8: 1-15. number of climatic excursions, including, in their
Man, Z. 2004. Climate Change in Historical Period of words, the “Medieval Warm Period with a
China. Shandong Education Press, Ji’nan, China. culmination about 1000 years ago.”
Further north, Hiller et al. (2001) analyzed
subfossil wood samples from the Khibiny mountains

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 Observations: Temperature Records

on the Kola Peninsula of Russia (67-68°N, 33-34°E) multicentennial variations possible at present but not
in an effort to reconstruct the region’s climate history detectable in available 100-200-year series of
over the past 1,500 years. They determined that instrumental records.” In this endeavor, they were
between AD 1000 and 1300 the tree-line was located highly successful, stating unequivocally that “the
at least 100-140 m above its current elevation. This Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age existed
observation, in their words, suggests that mean globally.”
summer temperatures during this “Medieval climatic Additional information on this topic, including
optimum” were “at least 0.8°C higher than today,” reviews of newer publications as they become
and that “the Medieval optimum was the most available, can be found at http://www.co2science.org/
pronounced warm climate phase on the Kola subject/m/mwprussia.php.
Peninsula during the last 1500 years.”
Additional evidence for the Medieval Warm
Period in Russia comes from Naurzbaev and Vaganov References
(2000), who developed a 2,200-year proxy
temperature record (212 BC to 1996 AD) using tree- Demezhko, D.Yu. and Shchapov, V.A. 2001. 80,000 years
ring data obtained from 118 trees near the upper ground surface temperature history inferred from the
timberline in Siberia. Based on their results, they temperature-depth log measured in the superdeep hole SG-
concluded that the warming experienced in the 4 (the Urals, Russia). Global and Planetary Change 29:
167-178.
twentieth century was “not extraordinary,” and that
“the warming at the border of the first and second Esper, J., Cook, E.R. and Schweingruber, F.H. 2002. Low-
millennia was longer in time and similar in frequency signals in long tree-ring chronologies for
amplitude.” reconstructing past temperature variability. Science 295:
Krenke and Chernavskaya (2002) present an 2250-2253.
impressive overview of what is known about the Hiller, A., Boettger, T. and Kremenetski, C. 2001.
MWP within Russia, as well as throughout the world, Medieval climatic warming recorded by radiocarbon dated
based on historical evidence, glaciological evidence, alpine tree-line shift on the Kola Peninsula, Russia. The
hydrologic evidence, dendrological data, Holocene 11: 491-497.
archaeological data, and palynological data.
Concentrating on data wholly from within Russia, Krenke, A.N. and Chernavskaya, M.M. 2002. Climate
changes in the preinstrumental period of the last
they report large differences in a number of variables
millennium and their manifestations over the Russian
between the Little Ice Age (LIA) and MWP. With Plain. Isvestiya, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics 38: S59-
respect to the annual mean temperature of northern S79.
Eurasia, they report an MWP to LIA drop on the
order of 1.5°C. They also say that “the frequency of Mann, M.E., Bradley, R.S. and Hughes, M.K. 1998.
severe winters reported was increased from once in Global-scale temperature patterns and climate forcing over
33 years in the early period of time, which the past six centuries. Nature 392: 779-787.
corresponds to the MWP, to once in 20 years in the Mann, M.E., Bradley, R.S. and Hughes, M.K. 1999.
LIA,” additionally noting that “the abnormally severe Northern Hemisphere temperatures during the past
winters [of the LIA] were associated with the spread millennium: Inferences, uncertainties, and limitations.
of Arctic air masses over the entire Russian Plain.” Geophysical Research Letters 26: 759-762.
Finally, they note that the data they used to draw
Naurzbaev, M.M. and Vaganov, E.A. 2000. Variation of
these conclusions were “not used in the early summer and annual temperature in east Taymir and
reconstructions performed by Mann et al.,” which Putoran (Siberia) over the last two millennia inferred from
perhaps explains why the Mann et al. temperature tree rings. Journal of Geophysical Research 105: 7317-
history of the past millennium does not depict the 7326.
coolness of the LIA or the warmth of the MWP nearly
as well as the more appropriately derived temperature
history of Esper et al. (2002). 3.2.5.3. Other Asia Locations
In discussing their approach to the subject of
global warming detection and attribution, the In addition to China and Russia, the Medieval Warm
Russians state that “an analysis of climate variations Period (MWP) has been identified in several other
over 1000 years should help … reveal natural parts of Asia.

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 Climate Change Reconsidered

Schilman et al. (2001) analyzed foraminiferal Between AD 1000 and 1200, however, growing
oxygen and carbon isotopes, together with the conditions deteriorated; and at about 1500, minimum
physical and geochemical properties of sediments, tree ring-widths were reached that persisted well into
contained in two cores extracted from the bed of the the seventeenth century. Towards the end of the
southeastern Mediterranean Sea off the coast of twentieth century, ring-widths increased once again;
Israel, where they found evidence for the MWP but Esper et al. (2002b) report that “the twentieth-
centered on AD 1200. In discussing their findings, century trend does not approach the AD 1000
they note there is an abundance of other evidence for maximum.” In fact, there is almost no comparison
the existence of the MWP in the Eastern between the two periods, with the Medieval Warm
Mediterranean as well, including, in their words, Period being much more conducive to good tree
“high Saharan lake levels (Schoell, 1978; Nicholson, growth than the Current Warm Period. As the authors
1980), high Dead Sea levels (Issar et al., 1989, 1991; describe the situation, “growing conditions in the
Issar, 1990, 1998; Issar and Makover-Levin, 1996), twentieth century exceed the long-term average, but
and high levels of the Sea of Galilee (Frumkin et al., the amplitude of this trend is not comparable to the
1991; Issar and Makover-Levin, 1996),” in addition to conditions around AD 1000.”
“a precipitation maximum at the Nile headwaters The latest contribution to Asian temperature
(Bell and Menzel, 1972; Hassan, 1981; Ambrose and reconstruction is the study of Esper et al. (2003), who
DeNiro, 1989) and in the northeastern Arabian Sea processed several extremely long juniper ring-width
(von Rad et al., 1999).” chronologies for the Alai Range of the western Tien
Further to the east, Kar et al. (2002) explored the Shan in Kirghizia in such a way as to preserve multi-
nature of climate change preserved in the sediment centennial growth trends that are typically “lost
profile of an outwash plain two to three km from the during the processes of tree ring data standardization
snout of the Gangotri Glacier in the Uttarkashi district and chronology building (Cook and Kairiukstis, 1990;
of Uttranchal, Western Himalaya. Between 2,000 and Fritts, 1976).” In doing so, they used two techniques
1,700 years ago, their data reveal the existence of a that maintain low frequency signals: long-term mean
relatively cool climate. Then, from 1,700 to 850 years standardization (LTM) and regional curve
ago, there was what they call an “amelioration of standardization (RCS), as well as the more
climate,” during the transition from the depth of the conventional spline standardization (SPL) technique
Dark Ages Cold Period to the midst of the Medieval that obscures (actually removes) long-term trends.
Warm Period. Subsequent to that time, Kar et al.’s Carried back in time a full thousand years, the
data indicate the climate “became much cooler,” SPL chronologies depict significant inter-decadal
indicative of its transition to Little Ice Age conditions, variations but no longer-term trends. The LTM and
while during the last 200 years there has been a rather RCS chronologies, on the other hand, show long-term
steady warming, as shown by Esper et al. (2002a) to decreasing trends from the start of the record until
have been characteristic of the entire Northern about AD 1600, broad minima from 1600 to 1800,
Hemisphere. and long-term increasing trends from about 1800 to
At a pair of other Asian locations, Esper et al. the present. As a result, in the words of Esper et al.
(2002b) used more than 200,000 ring-width (2003), “the main feature of the LTM and RCS Alai
measurements obtained from 384 trees at 20 Range chronologies is a multi-centennial wave with
individual sites ranging from the lower to upper high values towards both ends.”
timberline in the Northwest Karakorum of Pakistan This grand result has essentially the same form as
(35-37°N, 74-76°E) and the Southern Tien Shan of the Northern Hemisphere extratropic temperature
Kirghizia (40°10’N, 72°35’E) to reconstruct regional history of Esper et al. (2002a), which is vastly
patterns of climatic variations in Western Central different from the hockey stick temperature history of
Asia since AD 618. According to their analysis, the Mann et al. (1998, 1999) and Mann and Jones (2003),
Medieval Warm Period was already firmly in that it depicts the existence of both the Little Ice
established and growing even warmer by the early Age and preceding Medieval Warm Period, which are
seventh century; and between AD 900 and 1000, tree nowhere to be found in the Mann reconstructions. In
growth was exceptionally rapid, at rates they say addition, the new result—especially the LTM
“cannot be observed during any other period of the chronology, which has a much smaller variance than
last millennium.” the RCS chronology—depicts several periods in the
first half of the last millennium that were warmer than

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any part of the last century. These periods include sensitive Tien Shan tree ring chronologies show multi-
much of the latter half of the Medieval Warm Period centennial growth trends. Climate Dynamics 21: 699-706.
and a good part of the first half of the fifteenth Fritts, H.C. 1976. Tree Rings and Climate. Academic
century, which has also been found to have been Press, London, UK.
warmer than it is currently by McIntyre and
McKitrick (2003) and by Loehle (2004). Frumkin, A., Magaritz, M., Carmi, I. and Zak, I. 1991. The
In commenting on their important findings, Esper Holocene climatic record of the salt caves of Mount
et al. (2003) remark that “if the tree ring Sedom, Israel. Holocene 1: 191-200.
reconstruction had been developed using ‘standard’ Hassan, F.A. 1981. Historical Nile floods and their
detrending procedures only, it would have been implications for climatic change. Science 212: 1142-1145.
limited to inter-decadal scale variation and would
have missed some of the common low frequency Issar, A.S. 1990. Water Shall Flow from the Rock.
Springer, Heidelberg, Germany.
signal.” We would also remark, with respect to the
upward trend of their data since 1800, that a good Issar, A.S. 1998. Climate change and history during the
portion of that trend may have been due to the aerial Holocene in the eastern Mediterranean region. In: Issar,
fertilization effect of the concomitantly increasing A.S. and Brown, N. (Eds.) Water, Environment and Society
atmospheric CO2 content, which is known to greatly in Times of Climate Change, Kluwer Academic Publishers,
stimulate the growth of trees. Properly accounting for Dordrecht, The Netherlands, pp. 113-128.
this very real effect would make the warmer-than- Issar, A.S. and Makover-Levin, D. 1996. Climate changes
present temperatures of the first half of the past during the Holocene in the Mediterranean region. In:
millennium even warmer, relative to those of the past Angelakis, A.A. and Issar, A.S. (Eds.) Diachronic Climatic
century, than they appear to be in Esper et al.’s LTM Impacts on Water Resources with Emphasis on the
and RCS reconstructions. Mediterranean Region, NATO ASI Series, Vol. I, 36,
Additional information on this topic, including Springer, Heidelberg, Germany, pp. 55-75.
reviews of newer publications as they become Issar, A.S., Tsoar, H. and Levin, D. 1989. Climatic changes
available, can be found at http://www.co2science.org/ in Israel during historical times and their impact on
subject/a/asiamwp.php. hydrological, pedological and socio-economic systems. In:
Leinen, M. and Sarnthein, M. (Eds.), Paleoclimatology and
Paleometeorology: Modern and Past Patterns of Global
References Atmospheric Transport, Kluwer Academic Publishers,
Dordrecht, The Netherlands, pp. 535-541.
Ambrose, S.H. and DeNiro, M.J. 1989. Climate and habitat
Issar, A.S., Govrin, Y., Geyh, M.A., Wakshal, E. and Wolf,
reconstruction using stable carbon and nitrogen isotope
M. 1991. Climate changes during the Upper Holocene in
ratios of collagen in prehistoric herbivore teeth from
Israel. Israel Journal of Earth-Science 40: 219-223.
Kenya. Quaternary Research 31: 407-422.
Kar, R., Ranhotra, P.S., Bhattacharyya, A. and Sekar B.
Bell, B. and Menzel, D.H. 1972. Toward the observation
2002. Vegetation vis-à-vis climate and glacial fluctuations
and interpretation of solar phenomena. AFCRL F19628-69-
of the Gangotri Glacier since the last 2000 years. Current
C-0077 and AFCRL-TR-74-0357, Air Force Cambridge
Science 82: 347-351.
Research Laboratories, Bedford, MA, pp. 8-12.
Loehle, C. 2004. Climate change: detection and attribution
Cook, E.R. and Kairiukstis, L.A. 1990. Methods of
of trends from long-term geologic data. Ecological
Dendrochronology: Applications in the Environmental
Modelling 171: 433-450.
Sciences. Kluwer, Dordrecht, The Netherlands.
Mann, M.E., Bradley, R.S. and Hughes, M.K. 1998.
Esper, J., Cook, E.R. and Schweingruber, F.H. 2002a.
Global-scale temperature patterns and climate forcing over
Low-frequency signals in long tree-ring chronologies and
the past six centuries. Nature 392: 779-787.
the reconstruction of past temperature variability. Science
295: 2250-2253. Mann, M.E., Bradley, R.S. and Hughes, M.K. 1999.
Northern Hemisphere temperatures during the past
Esper, J., Schweingruber, F.H. and Winiger, M. 2002b.
millennium: Inferences, uncertainties, and limitations.
1300 years of climatic history for Western Central Asia
Geophysical Research Letters 26: 759-762.
inferred from tree-rings. The Holocene 12: 267-277.
Mann, M.E. and Jones, P.D. 2003. Global surface
Esper, J., Shiyatov, S.G., Mazepa, V.S., Wilson, R.J.S.,
temperatures over the past two millennia. Geophysical
Graybill, D.A. and Funkhouser, G. 2003. Temperature-
Research Letters 30: 10.1029/2003GL017814.

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McIntyre, S. and McKitrick, R. 2003. Corrections to the call the Recent Baltic Sea Stage that prevails to this
Mann et al. (1998) proxy data base and Northern day.
Hemispheric average temperature series. Energy and In another marine study, Voronina et al. (2001)
Environment 14: 751-771. analyzed dinoflagellate cyst assemblages in two
Nicholson, S.E. 1980. Saharan climates in historic times. sediment cores retrieved from the southeastern
In: Williams, M.A.J. and Faure, H. (Eds.) The Sahara and Barents Sea, one spanning a period of 8,300 years and
the Nile, Balkema, Rotterdam, The Netherlands, pp. 173- one spanning a period of 4,400 years. The longer of
200. the two cores indicated a warm interval from about
8,000 to 3,000 years before present, followed by
Schilman, B., Bar-Matthews, M., Almogi-Labin, A. and
Luz, B. 2001. Global climate instability reflected by cooling pulses coincident with lowered salinity and
Eastern Mediterranean marine records during the late extended ice cover in the vicinity of 5,000, 3,500, and
Holocene. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, 2,500 years ago. The shorter core additionally
Palaeoecology 176: 157-176. revealed cooling pulses at tentative dates of 1,400,
300, and 100 years before present. For the bulk of the
Schoell, M. 1978. Oxygen isotope analysis on authigenic past 4,400 years, however, ice cover lasted only two
carbonates from Lake Van sediments and their possible
to three months per year, as opposed to the modern
bearing on the climate of the past 10,000 years. In: Degens,
E.T. (Ed.) The Geology of Lake Van, Kurtman. The mean of 4.3 months per year. In addition, August
Mineral Research and Exploration Institute of Turkey, temperatures ranged between 6° and 8°C,
Ankara, Turkey, pp. 92-97. significantly warmer than the present mean of 4.6°C.
Moving back towards land, Mikalsen et al. (2001)
von Rad, U., Schulz, H., Riech, V., den Dulk, M., Berner, made detailed measurements of a number of
U. and Sirocko, F. 1999. Multiple monsoon-controlled properties of sedimentary material extracted from the
breakdown of oxygen-minimum conditions during the past
bottom of a fjord on the west coast of Norway,
30,000 years documented in laminated sediments off
Pakistan. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, deriving a relative temperature history of the region
Palaeoecology 152: 129-161. that spanned the last five millennia. This record
revealed the existence of a period stretching from
A.D. 1330 to 1600 that, in their words, “had the
highest bottom-water temperatures in Sulafjorden
3.2.6. Europe during the last 5000 years.”
In eastern Norway, Nesje et al. (2001) analyzed a
Based on analyses of subfossil wood samples from sediment core obtained from Lake Atnsjoen, deriving
the Khibiny mountains on the Kola Peninsula of a 4,500-year record of river flooding. They observed
Russia, Hiller et al. (2001) were able to reconstruct a “a period of little flood activity around the Medieval
1,500-year history of alpine tree-line elevation. This period (AD 1000-1400),” which was followed by “a
record indicates that between AD 1000 and 1300, the period of the most extensive flood activity in the
tree-line there was located at least 100 to 140 meters Atnsjoen catchment.” This flooding, in their words,
above its current location. The researchers state that resulted from the “post-Medieval climate
this fact implies a mean summer temperature that was deterioration characterized by lower air temperature,
“at least 0.8°C higher than today.” thicker and more long-lasting snow cover, and more
Moving from land to water, in a study of a well- frequent storms associated with the ‘Little Ice Age’.”
dated sediment core from the Bornholm Basin in the Working in both Norway and Scotland, Brooks
southwestern Baltic Sea, Andren et al. (2000) found and Birks (2001) studied midges, the larval-stage
evidence for a period of high primary production at head capsules of which are well preserved in lake
approximately AD 1050. Many of the diatoms of that sediments and are, in their words, “widely recognized
period were warm water species that the scientists say as powerful biological proxies for inferring past
“cannot be found in the present Baltic Sea.” This climate change.” Applying this technique to
balmy period, they report, “corresponds to the time sediments derived from a lake in the Cairngorms
when the Vikings succeeded in colonizing Iceland region of the Scottish Highlands, they determined that
and Greenland.” The warmth ended rather abruptly, temperatures there peaked at about 11°C during what
however, at about AD 1200, when they note there was they refer to as the “Little Climatic Optimum”—
“a major decrease in warm water taxa in the diatom which we typically call the Medieval Warm Period—
assemblage and an increase in cold water taxa,”
which latter diatoms are characteristic of what they

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“before cooling by about 1.5°C which may coincide temperature-depth logs of 98 separate boreholes
with the ‘Little Ice Age’.” drilled in the Czech Republic. From these data they
These results, according to Brooks and Birks, detected “the existence of a medieval warm epoch
“are in good agreement with a chironomid lasting from A.D. 1100-1300,” which they describe as
stratigraphy from Finse, western Norway (Velle, “one of the warmest postglacial times. Noting that
1998),” where summer temperatures were “about this spectacular warm period was followed by the
0.4°C warmer than the present day” during the Little Ice Age, they went on to suggest that “the
Medieval Warm Period. This latter observation also observed recent warming may thus be easily a natural
appears to hold for the Scottish site, since the upper return of climate from the previous colder conditions
sample of the lake sediment core from that region, back to a ‘normal’.”
which was collected in 1993, “reconstructs the Filippi et al. (1999) share similar views, as is
modern temperature at about 10.5°C,” which is 0.5°C demonstrated by their citing of Keigwin (1996) to the
less than the 11°C value the authors found for the effect that “sea surface temperature (SST)
Medieval Warm Period. reconstructions show that SST was ca. 1°C cooler
Moving to Switzerland, Filippi et al. (1999) than today about 400 years ago and ca. 1°C warmer
analyzed a sediment core extracted from Lake than today during the MWP.” Citing Bond et al.
Neuchatel in the western Swiss Lowlands. During this (1997), they further note that the MWP and LIA are
same transition from the Medieval Warm Period merely the most recent manifestations of “a pervasive
(MWP) to the Little Ice Age (LIA), they detected a millennial-scale coupled atmosphere-ocean climate
drop of approximately 1.5°C in mean annual air oscillation,” which, we might add, has absolutely
temperature. To give some context to this finding, nothing to do with variations in the air’s CO2 content.
they say that “the warming during the 20th century Lastly, we report the findings of Berglund (2003),
does not seem to have fully compensated the cooling who identified several periods of expansion and
at the MWP-LIA transition.” And to make the decline of human cultures in northwest Europe and
message even more clear, they add that during the compared them with a history of reconstructed
Medieval Warm Period, the mean annual air climate “based on insolation, glacier activity, lake and
temperature was “on average higher than at present.” sea levels, bog growth, tree line, and tree growth.” In
In Ireland, in a cave in the southwestern part of doing so, he determined there was a positive
the country, McDermott et al. (2001) derived a ð18O correlation between human impact/land-use and
record from a stalagmite that provided evidence for climate change. Specifically, in the latter part of the
climatic variations that are “broadly consistent with a record, where both cultural and climate changes were
Medieval Warm Period at ~1000 ± 200 years ago and best defined, there was, in his words, a great “retreat
a two-stage Little Ice Age.” Also evident in the data of agriculture” centered on about AD 500, which led
were the ð18O signatures of the earlier Roman Warm to “reforestation in large areas of central Europe and
Period and Dark Ages Cold Period that comprised the Scandinavia.” He additionally notes that “this period
preceding millennial-scale cycle of climate in that was one of rapid cooling indicated from tree-ring data
region. (Eronen et al., 1999) as well as sea surface
In another study of three stalagmites found in a temperatures based on diatom stratigraphy in [the]
cave in northwest Germany, Niggemann et al. (2003) Norwegian Sea (Jansen and Koc, 2000), which can be
discovered that the climate records they contained correlated with Bond’s event 1 in the North Atlantic
“resemble records from an Irish stalagmite sediments (Bond et al., 1997).”
(McDermott et al., 1999),” specifically noting that Next came what Berglund calls a “boom period”
their own records provide evidence for the existence that covered “several centuries from AD 700 to
of the Little Ice Age, the Medieval Warm Period and 1100.” This interval of time proved to be “a
the Roman Warm Period, which evidence also favourable period for agriculture in marginal areas of
implies the existence of what McDermott et al. (2001) Northwest Europe, leading into the so-called
call the Dark Ages Cold Period that separated the Medieval Warm Epoch,” when “the climate was
Medieval and Roman Warm Periods, as well as the warm and dry, with high treelines, glacier retreat, and
existence of the unnamed cold period that preceded reduced lake catchment erosion.” This period “lasted
the Roman Warm Period. until around AD 1200, when there was a gradual
Bodri and Cermak (1999) derived individual change to cool/moist climate, the beginning of the
ground surface temperature histories from the

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Little Ice Age ... with severe consequences for the alpine tree-line shift on the Kola Peninsula, Russia. The
agrarian society.” Holocene 11: 491-497.
The story from Europe seems quite clear. There Jansen, E. and Koc, N. 2000. Century to decadal scale
was a several-hundred-year period in the first part of records of Norwegian sea surface temperature variations of
the last millennium that was significantly warmer the past 2 millennia. PAGES Newsletter 8(1): 13-14.
than it is currently. In addition, there is reason to
believe the planet may be on a natural climate Keigwin, L.D. 1996. The Little Ice Age and Medieval
trajectory that is taking it back to a state reminiscent Warm Period in the Sargasso Sea. Science 174: 1504-1508.
of the Medieval Warm Period. There is nothing we McDermott, F., Frisia, S., Huang, Y., Longinelli, A., Spiro,
can do about this natural cycle except, as is implied S., Heaton, T.H.E., Hawkesworth, C., Borsato, A.,
by the study of Berglund (2003), reap the benefits. Keppens, E., Fairchild, I., van Borgh, C., Verheyden, S.
Additional information on this topic, including and Selmo, E. 1999. Holocene climate variability in
reviews of newer publications as they become Europe: evidence from delta18O, textural and extension-
available, can be found at http://www.co2science.org/ rate variations in speleothems. Quaternary Science Reviews
subject/e/europemwp.php. 18: 1021-1038.
McDermott, F., Mattey, D.P. and Hawkesworth, C. 2001.
Centennial-scale Holocene climate variability revealed by a
References high-resolution speleothem ð18O record from SW Ireland.
Science 294: 1328-1331.
Andren, E., Andren, T. and Sohlenius, G. 2000. The
Holocene history of the southwestern Baltic Sea as Mikalsen, G., Sejrup, H.P. and Aarseth, I. 2001. Late-
reflected in a sediment core from the Bornholm Basin. Holocene changes in ocean circulation and climate:
Boreas 29: 233-250. foraminiferal and isotopic evidence from Sulafjord,
western Norway. The Holocene 11: 437-446.
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changes—synchronous events and a causal link? Nesje, A., Dahl, S.O., Matthews, J.A. and Berrisford, M.S.
Quaternary International 105: 7-12. 2001. A ~ 4500-yr record of river floods obtained from a
sediment core in Lake Atnsjoen, eastern Norway. Journal
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millennium inferred from borehole temperatures: Regional
patterns of climatic changes in the Czech Republic—Part Niggemann, S., Mangini, A., Richter, D.K. and Wurth, G.
III. Global and Planetary Change 21: 225-235. 2003. A paleoclimate record of the last 17,600 years in
stalagmites from the B7 cave, Sauerland, Germany.
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deMenocal, P., Priori, P., Cullen, H., Hajdes, I. and Bonani,
G. 1997. A pervasive millennial-scale climate cycle in the Velle, G. 1998. A paleoecological study of chironomids
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Science 278: 1257-1266. Thesis, University of Bergen.

Brooks, S.J. and Birks, H.J.B. 2001. Chironomid-inferred Voronina, E., Polyak, L., De Vernal, A. and Peyron, O.
air temperatures from Lateglacial and Holocene sites in 2001. Holocene variations of sea-surface conditions in the
north-west Europe: progress and problems. Quaternary southeastern Barents Sea, reconstructed from dinoflagellate
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726.
Eronen, M., Hyvarinen, H. and Zetterberg, P. 1999.
Holocene humidity changes in northern Finnish Lapland
inferred from lake sediments and submerged Scots pines 3.2.7. North America
dated by tree-rings. The Holocene 9: 569-580.
Arseneault and Payette (1997) analyzed tree-ring and
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spruce remains buried in a presently treeless peatland
on the stable isotope record from bulk carbonates and
ostracodes in Lake Neuchatel, Switzerland, during the last
in northern Quebec to produce a proxy record of
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and 1591 AD. Perhaps the most outstanding feature of
Hiller, A., Boettger, T. and Kremenetski, C. 2001. this history was the warm period it revealed between
Medieval climatic warming recorded by radiocarbon dated 860 and 1000 AD. Based on the fact that the
northernmost twentieth century location of the forest

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