Ageing population (p 409)
Advantages and disadvantages
READ the article from National Geographic (2023) and also read P.411 in your
coursebook on Japan’s population
-’granny culture’
- pensioners numbers - how to pay them?
- life expectancy
- dependency ratio (older dependency ratio)
READ on how countries deal with falling birth rates (BBC)
Are there any solutions?
NATALIST POLICIES (PRO and ANTI)
China's One-Child Policy (p.412)
The most well known anti-natalist policy is China's
One-child policy that was in force between 1979
and 2015. China first attempted to control its
fertility through soft approaches such as
nationwide family planning schemes and better
access to contraception. From 1950 to 2000,
China’s fertility rate fell from about 6.5 children per
woman to about 1.8 children, which can only be
described as incredible achievement. However, in
the 1979 China adopted a far more radical
approach through forced and controversial birth
lists, sterilization and abortions. People living in
urban areas were forced to have one child. Rural
populations were exempt as well as minority
ethnic groups.
The graph to the right shows the fall in fertility rate in China. As be seen as much as 80% of the
decline in fertility fell through the government soft policy approach, with an emphasis on education
and family planning. The One-Child policy only appears to have had modest impact through the 80s,
before causing a more rapid decline in the 1990s. The One-Child policy is considered highly
controversial as it imposed strict control over the individual's reproductive rights. Women were not
allowed to conceive of their own free will. They had to strictly control pregnancy and apply to
officials to granted rights to conceive. In the case of illegal pregnancy, women endured forced
abortion and as the practice of forced sterilisation. Families were also subjected to higher taxation
and labour market restrictions that forced people into poverty if they did not comply. China claims
that the policy prevented a further 400 million people being added to its total population. However
many demographers claim that the success of the policy is overstated and that very similar declines
in fertility would have been achieved through natural change associated with economic
development. In 2015 China replaced with the policy with Two-Child policy that operates in a similar
way. In the long term due to a rapidly growing older population in China it is likely we will see a full
reversal of this policy towards a more pro-natal policy.
How did the one child policy affect people in China?
Read p 412/413 in coursebook
China nowadays
China has attempted to reverse its long-term trend of a shrinking and ageing workforce
by reversing some of its fertility policies. By increasing fertility, the young workforce can
be increased and this would boost the tax revenue of the country enabling improved
investment in health and care services for the elderly. One example of a policy change
has been the scrapping of the infamous one-child policy. However, this policy change
has made little impact on fertility rates with natural processes of having fewer children
remaining dominant. There is talk of now scrapping the two-child policy, put in place to
replace the former. There is even talk in China of introducing a pro-natalist policy
equally draconic as the anti-natalist policies that would effectively force women to have
more children. Some academics in China have talked of increasing taxes for single
people and couples with no children as well as creating policies that slow down and
discourage divorce.
Pro - natalist policies in Russia (p 413-414)
Are pro natalist policies working? READ
ANTI - TRAFFICKING POLICIES
VIDEO - what is human trafficking
People most at risk (p 417) are migrants,_________________________________
ORGANISATIONS (many) incl
INTERPOL
La Strada
UN Inter Agency
Anti Trafficking International
Nigeria is major source for human trafficking, both internally and internationally with strong international links to the USA, Europe and
Russia. The Global Slavery Index states that there were 1,386,000 people held in slavery and servitude in Nigeria in 2018 but there
were only 955 successful prosecutions across the whole of Africa in 2019. In total just over 42 000 victims were rescued. Clearly Africa
is of major importance in the fight against human trafficking but efforts to combat it face huge challenges of governance. These
challenges that go to the heart of Nigerian governance are highlighted in the US State Department Report below, which downgraded
Nigeria to Tier two, for not complying to international human trafficking treaties. This examples shows the importance of both national
and international governance in the fight against human trafficking.
US Department of Sate - 2020 Trafficking in Persons Report -Nigeria The Government of Nigeria does not fully meet the minimum standards for
the elimination of trafficking but is making significant efforts to do so. These efforts included continuing efforts to train government officials and raise public
awareness, collaborating with international organisations and NGOs to establish anti-trafficking task forces in Borno and Ekiti states, using new technologies to
enhance collection of victim testimony, prosecuting three government officials complicit in human trafficking, and drafting memoranda of understanding (MOUs)
to improve coordination between government agencies. However, the government did not demonstrate overall increasing efforts compared to the previous
reporting period. Nigerian security forces recruited and used at least two children in support roles during the reporting period. In addition, there continued to be
reports of security officials sexual exploitation, including through sex trafficking, Internally Displaced Peoples (IDPs), in government-run camps in and around
Maiduguri. The government did not hold criminally accountable any military officials for exploitation of IDPs in sex trafficking or recruitment and use of child
soldiers. In addition, the government did not hold any Civilian Joint Task Force (CJTF) members criminally accountable for sex trafficking of IDPs or past
recruitment and use of child soldiers. The Nigerian military did not always provide trafficking victim protections to female and child trafficking victims allegedly
associated with insurgencies and the government convicted fewer traffickers. Therefore Nigeria was downgraded to Tier 2 Watch List.
Corruption and official complicity in trafficking crimes, including among designated officials with responsibilities to combat
human trafficking, remained significant concerns, inhibiting law enforcement action and perpetuating impunity for trafficking
crimes.
THE DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDEND
- growth in economy due to
change in the population’s age
structure
- slower falling birth rate and faster
falling death rate (stage 2 and 3
of DTM p.397) creates a ‘bulge;
when the ‘bulge become
economically active the
dependency ratio falls
Life expectancy/child
mortality/fertility/
UN demographic dividend page
- increase in labour supply
- increase in savings (better economy - higher GDP)
- better health (lower child mortality, higher life expectancy)
- contraception availability
- better education
- gender equality
Old Age Dependency WORLDBANK old dependency
ratio by country
South Korea age structure (2021 data)
Calculate 2021 South K. old
dependency rate as per the below
data
0-14 years (male 3,191,584/female 3,025,029)
15-24 years (male 2,900,013/female 2,658,057)
25-54 years (male 12,106,860/female 11,077,642)
55-64 years (male 3,958,718/female 4,142,322)
65 years and over (male 3,766,138/female 4,888,799)
Transforming Youth Bulge into Demographic Dividend in
Nigeria
Read the article on Nigeria’s demographic transition and opportunities and answer
these questions
-what does the opportunity of Demographic Dividend in the case of Nigeria mean?
-what are the mentioned risks that the dividend may have negative effect?
- what areas can the Nigerian government act in to help the situation?
-explain pro natalist and anti natalist policies; give examples
- how to tackle human trafficking?
- explain what is the population distribution of China? Why?
- what does NIC, RIC, CPE mean? What are these countries?
- what are population indicators?
- compare life expectancy of African and European countries
- what is dependency ratio and ageing ratio. What are their limitations?
- identify a country at each stage of development (DTM), including HIC, LIC and an Emerging Economy. How does
the population differ and what are the challenges and opportunities it brings?
- outline the main possible benefits of the demographic dividend. Give examples of two countries incl risk
- what is family planning? How important it is in achieving demographic dividend?
- what is gender/sex ratio?
