Bangladesh Crisis and Its Implications for India

What Led to the Bangladesh Crisis?

More than 130 people died in what was a student protest against the quotas in government
jobs, which quickly escalated to become a major crisis for Bangladesh, ultimately leading to the
resignation of Sheikh Hasina. The student protesters demanded jobs based on merit and not on
quotas. These government job quotas were facing severe criticism for being archaic and prone to
abuse, since the major beneficiaries were mainly the descendants of freedom fighters in
Bangladesh.

But that's not it; these protests emerged at a critical juncture. Sheikh Hasina's government won a
fourth consecutive term in January 2024 and these elections were controversial since the
opposition parties boycotted this election. Bangladesh was already facing massive
unemployment, and the inflation knew no bounds. The protests escalated even more with her
remarks that labeled the protesters as Razakars and the crackdown by the police on these
protests. A combination of various socio economic issues, broader pressures made worse by
COVID-19, persistent corruption, a lack of jobs and employment, inflation, and other causes
were enough to add fuel to the fire that Hasina's opponents had been making. Fast forward to
these events: Sheikh Hasina had to flee from Dhaka, Bangladesh, along with her sister, before
the protestors stormed her official residence. She landed in India as a temporary refugee. EAM
Dr S. Jaishankar spoke in the Rajya Sabha and confirmed that ‘at very short notice, Sheikh
Hasina requested approval to come for the moment to India’.

How does the Bangladesh Crisis Affect India?

 India might have Lost a Trusted Ally: There is no doubt that under the Sheikh Hasina leadership,
India-Bangladesh relations had only improved. With her resignation as the Prime Minister of
Bangladesh and a political flux in our neighborhood, India might have lost a trusted ally.
o Both the nations worked with each other on various fronts, most importantly in their
fight against terrorism. Her leadership fostered bilateral relations among the countries,
and both nations were able to work together on security issues.
o Even on the economic front, the interdependence is evident through trade. Bangladesh
became India's leading trading partner with USD 13 billion in commerce with
Bangladesh under her rule. The SAFTA agreement provided duty-free access on the
majority of tariff lines.
 Western Criticism: When protests began in Bangladesh and how the events transpired, Sheikh
Hasina had to resign and flee to India. India is indeed in a difficult diplomatic position, and it
works to balance between important international powers with its relationship with Bangladesh.
o Growing strains have resulted from India's sustained support of Sheikh Hasina with
Western allies, especially the US, which has criticized her increasingly autocratic
government. The West has closely monitored Hasina's administration due to claims that
it has violated human rights and restricted democratic freedoms.
 Risk of Anti-Indian Sentiment among Bangladeshi Public: Under Sheikh Hasina’s rule, India and
Bangladesh have worked with each other closely. And with her seeking refuge in India, her
 unpopularity within Bangladesh runs the risk of an anti-Indian sentiment. Often the general
public is unaware of the complexity of bilateral relationships and may be quick to equate one
particular leader with the whole nation.
o The next administration could not be as friendly toward India, especially when it comes
to delicate matters like trade and security. The possible consequences might worsen
India-Bangladesh ties and jeopardize the gains of the last ten years.

Challenges Ahead

Challenges to Border Security:

 India shares the longest border with Bangladesh in its neighborhood - 4096.7 km long. It is
guarded by the Border Security Force (BSF) on the Indian side of this border. However, one must
not forget that it is a porous border. This means that it is easier for people to infiltrate our
territory.
 Recently, the Indian government has formed a committee to overlook and monitor any
developments in the border region. The committee's major goal will be to keep lines of
communication open with their Bangladeshi counterparts in order to guarantee the protection
of both Indian nationals and members of minority communities residing in Bangladesh. This
committee will be headed by the ADG, BSF, Eastern Command, and will include an IG, BSF
Frontier HQ South Bengal, an IG, BSF Frontier HQ Tripura, a Member (Planning & Development),
the Land Ports Authority of India, and the Secretary, LPAI, as the members.

Challenges to Internal Security:

 Perhaps the biggest concern for India in relation to the present crisis is the possibility of tensions
in the north-eastern states of India in case of infiltration by the Bangladeshis. Further, one
cannot forget that various problems have always existed in the border regions, including
smuggling, entry of illegal migrants (including the issue of Rohingyas), militancy, and radicalism,
which are internal security challenges for us. A less pro-Indian government may give extremist
groups opposed to the country more clout, further taxing border security. With the current state
of affairs and the political upheaval, it's important that the border region is monitored and
managed well.

Threat of China and Regional Geopolitics:

 Under Sheikh Hasina, Bangladesh was able to manage both India and China. It would be difficult
to predict whether the opposition parties and the present interim government would toe the
same policy now. China has always used the moment of weakness of each country in the
neighborhood and has used the situation to its advantage. Bangladesh's political unrest may
provide China another opportunity to expand its sphere of influence in South Asia. Beijing could
take advantage of this situation and may propose lucrative deals to the next government.
 We have already seen this story in the case of the Maldives and Sri Lanka. India undoubtedly
needs to be on guard. In order to combat this, India will need to establish strategic positioning
that will have twin objectives: first, to stop extremist forces from expanding and guarantee
Bangladesh's economic stability, and second, to keep a check on any opportunity that can be
used by China to its advantage.
Minority Question:

 There are humanitarian concerns over the Hindus, the minority community, in Bangladesh who
are allegedly facing violence in the state. According to the Bangladesh National Hindu Grand
Alliance, after the administration led by Sheikh Hasina fell on August 5, there have been threats
and violence against the minority community in 278 locations throughout 48 districts. The group
referred to this as an "assault on the Hindu religion." Muhammad Yunus, the Chief Advisor of
Bangladesh and the leader of the provisional administration, contacted the Hindu community in
distress, advising them to "exercise patience" and promising to punish those who harmed the
minority members.