Unit I: Probability
Concept of Probability:
- Probability refers to the measure of the likelihood of an event occurring.
- It is expressed as a number between 0 and 1, where 0 indicates impossibility and 1 indicates
certainty.
Definitions:
1. Classical Approach: Probability is determined by the ratio of favorable outcomes to the total
number of equally likely outcomes.
2. Relative Frequency Approach: Based on the proportion of times an event occurs out of a large
number of trials.
3. Subjective Probability: Based on personal judgment or experience.
Theorems of Probability:
1. Addition Theorem: P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)
2. Multiplication Theorem: P(A and B) = P(A) * P(B | A)
Conditional Probability:
- The probability of an event occurring given that another event has already occurred.
- Formula: P(A | B) = P(A and B) / P(B)
Inverse Probability and Bayes Theorem:
- Bayes' Theorem is used to find the probability of an event based on prior knowledge of conditions
related to the event.
- Formula: P(A | B) = [P(B | A) * P(A)] / P(B)
Theoretical Distributions:
1. Binomial Distribution:
- Assumptions: Fixed number of trials, only two outcomes (success or failure), independent trials,
constant probability.
- Characteristics: Discrete distribution, used for binary outcomes.
2. Poisson Distribution:
- Characteristics: Models rare events over a fixed interval (time, space, etc.).
- Formula: P(X = x) = (mean^x * e^(-mean)) / x!
3. Normal Distribution:
- Features: Bell-shaped curve, symmetric, mean = median = mode.
- Standard Normal Curve: A normal distribution with mean = 0 and standard deviation = 1.
Examples and Applications:
- Real-world problems will be illustrated in class.
