STRATEGIC RISK MANAGEMENT
ASSIST PROF. DR. POOMPORN THAMSATITDEJ
COLLEGE OF MANAGEMENT
MAHIDOL UNIVERSITY
Foresight
Before the ability to predict or the action of predicting what will happen or
be needed in the future.
Insight
Strategic Foresight
Strategic foresight is the ability of an organization to constantly perceive, make
sense of and act upon ideas about future change emerging in the present
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FUTURE FUNNEL
STRATEGIC FORESIGHT PROCESS
Goal Situational Projections Scenarios Implications
and Analysis Project, and assess Calculate Plan your purpose
Objectives Identify Drivers and key drivers’ consistent, distant and strategy
Impact trajectories combination
Source: CIFS (2020)
EMERGING ISSUE ANALYSIS
WEAK EMERGING TRENDS MEGA
SIGNALS ISSUES TRENDS
Number of Cases, degree of Awareness
Newspapers
Scientists Government
Social Media Megazines
Artists Institutions
Analysis, Websites
Radicals Strategy
Value Shifts, Journals
Mystics
Futurists, Blogs
Communities,
Interest Groups
Time
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HORIZONTAL SCANNING
Horizon Scanning is a method for systematic gathering of intelligence by
'scanning' for novel trends and developments (as well as
discontinuities), including matters at the margins of current thinking.
Horizon scanning does not seek to make predictions and should avoid
extrapolating the present into the future. Instead, it aims to detect
patterns of change that could have a transformational impact on the
strategic environment of an organization.
HORIZONTAL SCANNING
The core function of Foresight and Horizontal Scanning activities is to anticipate
future opportunities or threats, and to identify issues in the present that are of major
importance for possible futures.
Social
STEEP analysis is a useful framework to apply in scanning
Values Technological
work that considers the Social, Technological, Economic,
Ecological/Environmental, and Political domains. Other
domains to consider include Legal, Ethics and STEEPV
Demographic (STEEPLED) or Regulatory factors (STEER)
Political Economic
Environmental
HORIZONTAL SCANNING
Social Technological Economic Environmental Political Values
1. Ageing 1. Renaissance in 1. Global digital 1. Increased air 1. Growing protest 1. Greater health
population mass transit economy pollution movements and wellbeing
2. Increased 2. Smart growth 2. Growing waste 2. Increased 2. Elevated value
adaptive design machines are 2. Advanced 3. Biodiversity urban data of ecosystems
3. Normalised coming knowledge loss mapping 3. Collectivism
lifelong learning 3. Smart cities economy 3. Rising regional uncertain
4. Climate change
4. Growing 4. Increased 3. Growing tensions 4. Inclusive design
centralisation 5. Rising sea level
importance of cyber security 4. Increased 5. Changing
immigration risk and inequity transparency family values
5. Left behind 5. Rise of health 4. Stronger local 5. Growing
children technologies economies decentralisation
5. Increased
dependence on
tourism
HORIZONTAL SCANNING
Trend Radar is a tool that helps you assess
trends by letting you use specific
assessment criteria to get an overview of
topics and technologies. Trends can be
classified according to various parameters
and thus collated (STEEP). For instance,
Trend Radar shows in a time horizon the
significance of trends for your company and
how they can interact. Consider the time at
which a trend becomes particularly relevant
to your line of business because, for
instance, solutions will be viable and
established by that time.
HORIZONTAL SCANNING
Horizon 1 (Business as
Usual), the dominant way
things are done today that
show signs of strain and lack
of fit to the future;
Horizon 3 (Aspirational
Futures), our visions for how
we want things to be in the
future; and
Horizon 2 (Disruptive
Innovations), the innovations
we can establish to help make
our desired future a reality.
Source: The UK Futures
TREND IMPACT ANALYSIS
High 5 Circular Economy S Social
T Technology
1 Trust in Science
E Economic
Impact
E Environment
Low
Low Uncertainty High
TREND IMPACT ANALYSIS
High
Factors with Key factors for
only one scenario
possbible construction
projection
Impact
Irrelevant Factors
Low
Low Uncertainty High
TREND IMPACT ANALYSIS
Look at the matrix below which has been populated with the remaining drivers. Which drivers would you use as a starting
point for scenario development? How might you handle disagreement about where drivers are placed in the matrix?
TREND IMPACT ANALYSIS
• This method permits an analyst to include and systematically examine the
effects of possible future events that are expected to affect the trend that is
extrapolated. The events can include technological, political, social,
economic and value-oriented changes.
• A 'high-impact' event would strongly affect the trend, positively or
negatively, compared to the surprise-free projection. By combining
surprise-free extrapolations with judgments about the probabilities and
impacts of selected future events, trend impact analysis provides a solid
basis for building scenarios.
HORIZONTAL SCANNING : Example
Foresight Process
Impact and uncertainty
Impact How much will the trend shape the future of urbanisation in Greater
Bangkok?
Uncertainty How sure are we about how the trend will show up OR the
effect that it will have on the future of urbanisation in Greater Bangkok?
Foresight process
Impact and uncertainty
Low/Medium/High
Low/Medium/High
Foresight process
Impact and uncertainty
Low/Medium/High
Low/Medium/High
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TREND IMPACT ANALYSIS
According to Gordon (1994) Trend Impact Analysis is ‘a forecasting method that permits
extrapolations of historical trends to be modified in view of expectation about future events’.
EVENT Event Probability of Probability or Probability or
Description Effect Effect Effect
4
TREND IMPACT ANALYSIS
Millennials drive international, cross-
E-Commerce: New oppor- border D2C e-commerce as pandemic
tunities for the elderly shopping habits remain worldwide
The rise in international direct-to-consumer (D2C)
purchases in the last six months has been led by
AWS will expand its infrastructure Millennial demographics, with reduced access to stores
footprint in Southeast Asia with during the pandemic prompting over half (52%) of 25–34-
year-olds to buy direct from international online brands.
plans to invest 190 billion baht
(US$5 billion) by 2037
How I Built a Simple 1-Person Startup With 100% AI
Technology and automation have had a longstanding impact
on employee headcount, with industrial and agricultural
examples dating back generations (even centuries). Critics of
automation gesture to the short-run impacts on workers and
families, including unemployment, downtime to reskill, and
10 Future Trends and Predictions of relocation. The obverse argument is that automation of
Cloud Computing repetitive and less desirable work has created longer-run
employment opportunities for workers.
The rising popularity of platforms
50% of Gen Z wants to ditch such as TikTok, Instagram and
YouTube has created a new class
corporate jobs and run their of entrepreneurs called “creators,”
a group that includes freelancers,
own businesses, according business coaches, gamers and
to new research other professionals who share and
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TREND and CROSS IMPACT ANALYSIS
Identify Horizontal Cluster Them Determine Choose for
Scan Links Further Analysis
The way individual There is more than one Choose for relevancy (to
observations are way to explore the strategy/policy) or for
organized/clustered relationship between novelty (in strategic
might vary different thinking/policy thinking)
clusters/observations
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TREND and CROSS IMPACT ANALYSIS
“The future at the present moment is based on the directions and interactions of megatrends,
trends and change drivers. They form the foundation for and are the primary material of futures
intelligence. Being quantifiable, they represent the most objective types of futures knowledge.”
Trend is a general tendency or direction of a development or change over time. It can be called a megatrend if
it occurs at global or large scale.
Megatrends are the great forces in societal development that will very likely affect the future in all
areas over the next 10-15 years. Megatrend is also defined as a large, social, economic, political,
environmental or technological change that is slow to form.
Drivers are defined as developments causing change, affecting or shaping the future. A driver is the cause of
one or more effects, e.g. increasing sugar intake in our daily food consumption is a driver for obesity.
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TREND and CROSS IMPACT ANALYSIS
Trend Impact Analysis
Trend Impact Analysis is a forecasting which examines the cause, nature, potential impact, likelihood and
speed of arrival of an emerging issue of change. Some trends are relatively predicatable like global
population growth but most trend extrapolations deteriorate over time the further out the projection goals.
Trend Impact Analysis seeks to look at the envelope of possibilities that deviate from the expected norm.
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Cross Impact Analysis
Cross Impact Analysis incorporates an additional layer of complexity in the sense that instead of accepting a priori the
attached probabilities related to future events given by experts, it tries to determine the conditional or proportional
probabilities of pairs of future events given that various events have or have not occurred, through crossed impacts
calculations (Heijden et al., 2002).
Source: Kees van der Heijden, Ron Bradfield, George Burt, George Calrns, and George Wright (2002), The Sixth Sense: Accelerating Organizational Learning with Scenarios, john Wiley and Sons.
TREND IMPACT
CROSS IMPACT ANALYSIS
ANALYSIS
How might you handle
disagreement about how one
driver affects another?
CROSS IMPACT ANALYSIS
o Growth of e-commerce:
Major expansion is anticipated, with the global market ballooning to $5.5 trillion by 2030 from $1.3 trillion in 2019.
o Importance of mobile commerce:
Forecasts indicate that 72.9% of sales will be mobile-driven by 2030, highlighting the urgency of mobile optimization and marketing.
o Regional e-commerce distribution:
North America and Western Europe will experience a shift as Asia-Pacific, Latin America, and the Middle East and Africa rise in market share,
prompting a strategic reevaluation for businesses looking to expand globally.
CROSS IMPACT ANALYSIS
Technological Advancements
Changes in Consumer Behavior
1. Artificial Intelligence grows in significance within e-commerce
1. Increase in Online Shoppers
ecosystems, streamlining operations and enhancing customer
The uptick in online shoppers is relentless. With each passing year, a
experiences. AI-driven chatbots, personalized recommendations, and
larger portion of the globe turns to the internet for their purchasing
predictive analytics are quickly becoming the norm, offering consumers
needs. This surge is propelled by more than just convenience; it's
a finely tuned online shopping experience.
about the breadth of choice, competitive prices, and the rise of digital
2. Virtual and Augmented Reality (VR/AR) technologies are on the
natives becoming the primary consumer demographic.
brink of transforming ecommerce. By allowing customers to visualize
2. Preference for Convenience and Personalization
products in their own space or on themselves, these technologies
Shoppers today aren't just buying products; they're looking for
bridge the gap between the digital and physical, boosting consumer
experiences tailored to their preferences. This demand for
confidence and satisfaction.
convenience and personalization requires robust data analytics and
3. The rollout of 5G and its Impact on E-commerce represents a
an agile, customer-centric business model to deliver highly curated
step-change in mobile commerce, thanks to faster speeds and reduced
shopping experiences.
latency. E-commerce platforms can offer more immersive and
interactive experiences, and the increased connectivity enables
shoppers to buy confidently on-the-go, further driving e-commerce
adoption.
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CROSS IMPACT ANALYSIS
Government Policies and Regulations
o E-commerce-friendly Policies
Governments around the world are crafting economic-friendly policies to foster growth in this sector, recognizing its potential to contribute to
the GDP and facilitate trade. Tax incentives, investment in digital infrastructure, and innovation grants are just a few strategies employed to
bolster the ecommerce industry.
Data Privacy and Security Regulations
As ecommerce grows, so does the attention on data privacy and security. Regulations like GDPR and CCPA have set new standards for data
protection, compelling ecommerce businesses to ensure transparency and security, building trust with consumers.
Projections
o Global E-commerce Market Size in 2030
Analysts project a staggering global e-commerce market size in 2030, with predictions often reaching into trillions of dollars. This number
accounts for an expanding customer base and the maturation of nascent e-commerce markets.
o Regional and Industry-specific Growth Rates
Understanding regional and industry-specific growth rates is critical—while some regions may leapfrog in e-commerce adoption, others may
advance steadily. Similarly, certain industries might disrupt traditional retail models more aggressively than others.
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MEGA TRENDS
Describe complex interactions between many factors.
(Sarita & Smiths, 2011)
Deep-set trajectory of change occurring at the intersection of
multiple trends across domains.
(CSIRO Perspective, since 2012)
MEGA TRENDS
OBSERVATION – what is happening now? Global, regional and national trends
Social Technological Economic Environmental Political Values
RELEVANCE
Combined effects? Local context?
Megatrend 1 Megatrend 2 Megatrend 3 Megatrend 4 Megatrend n..
EXTRAPOLATION – how could these forces shape …. in medium and long term?
MEGA TRENDS
Megatrends are defined as long-term driving forces that are observable now and will most likely have
a global impact. They can help you identify probable and preferable futures.
Time Rearch Impact
Observable over decades, Megatrends affect all regions and Megatredns fundamentally
Megatrends can be projected with stakeholders, including transform policies, society and the
high degree of probability at least 10 governments, individuals, and economy.
years into the future. businesses
Megatrend is defined as a long-term process of transformation with a global extent, wide scope and
significant impact (Naisbitt, 1982).
MEGA TRENDS
Megatrend 1 Key points
o Food security o Growing financial losses impact
Climate Change demands o Rising sea levels and stronger storms public and private budgets and
affecting coastal areas create debt
ecological reform o Lifestyle and health o Soil degradation
o Immigration o Activism and participation
Megatrend 2 Key points
o Enhancing research on alternative raw materials
Resource scarcity o Improving water resource management and new consumption patterns
o Better/more effective environmental regulations and regulations concerning natural resources
o Focus on circular economy
o Strategic autonomy
Key points
Megatrend 3
o Employment and economic growth o Pressure on systems and policies for
Demographic Imbalances o Sustainability of public finances, research and development, due to
health and retirement systems declining youth participation
o Social cohesion, family models and o Possible further increase of
intergenerational relationships urbanization
o New services and products focused
mainly on the elderly
MEGA
TRENDS
MEGA TRENDS : EXAMPLE
Linkages and interactions
Explore relationships between different trends, and how they
impact Greater Bangkok in the future.
More assets and people
impacted by flooding
Rapid urbanisation (social)
Higher damage losses
+
Assets in low lying areas
becoming un-insurable
Sea level rise (environmental)
Megatrend Component Trends Key factors
Aging population (social)
Distance from CBD
Aerial transport (technological)
Increasing cost of living Frequency of travel
Village
(economic) to CBD
harmony
Pollution (environmental)
Family / household
Social unrest (political)
structure
Health & wellbeing (values)
Aging Thais are struggling with rising living and
healthcare costs, and becoming more concerned about
‘big city’ problems. Cheap on-demand aerial transport
has made it easy for people to resettle outside the city
while maintaining access to jobs in booming services
Village industries. More and more Thais are seeking the peaceful
harmony village life, putting a higher value on their health and
environmental restoration. Satellite urban developments
that blend the traditional village, ecological sustainable
design and cutting edge aerial transport infrastructure
are in high demand.
