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India’s Role as a Global Skill Supplier

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116 views20 pages

India’s Role as a Global Skill Supplier

Uploaded by

Atul Ranjan
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
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Available Formats
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THE HINDU

6 Tuesday, December 24, 2024

Editorial Delhi

India’s ‘steel frame’ does need a check


I
ndia’s governance challenges demand enhance bureaucratic accountability. However, reportedly due to political pressure from political
urgent reforms to modernise its critics argue that centralising power in the Prime allies, underscores the contentious nature of this
Selective indecision bureaucracy. The country’s economic
story, which is marked by significant
Minister’s Office (PMO) risks undermining the
autonomy of senior bureaucrats, leading to
reform.
The U.S.’s proposed Department of
The latest GST Council meeting’s strides in growth and innovation, is juxtaposed further disempowerment of the IAS. Government Efficiency (DOGE), under U.S.
with enduring issues of income inequality, The need for administrative reforms in India is President-elect Donald Trump, offers an
outcomes signal a capricious approach underinvestment in critical sectors, and Vinod Bhanu not new. Since Independence, over 50 intriguing model for reforming India’s

W
ell into the eighth year of India’s re- bureaucratic inefficiency. Central to this narrative the Director of the commissions and committees have been tasked administrative apparatus. DOGE aims to
vamped indirect tax regime, the apex is the Indian Administrative Service (IAS), which Centre for Legislative with reimagining the country’s administrative streamline government operations, reduce
body governing the system met last has for long held sway over the nation’s Research and apparatus. The First Administrative Reforms inefficiency, and eliminate redundant agencies,
Saturday and unveiled a flurry of decisions — in- governance. However, persistent challenges Advocacy, New Delhi Commission (ARC) in 1966 and subsequent all while leveraging the expertise of leaders such
cluding some rate changes and clarifications — within the IAS and the wider bureaucracy have commissions, have consistently emphasised the as Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy.
that were punctuated by some broader issues it highlighted the urgent need for administrative need for specialisation, accountability, and DOGE’s focus on cutting wasteful expenditures
chose to kick down the road. That the Goods and reforms to unlock India’s true economic merit-based promotions within the bureaucracy. and introducing accountability mechanisms
Services Tax (GST) Council, with the Centre and potential. The Second ARC, set up in 2005, laid out a resonates with the challenges faced by the Indian
States on board, had to wait for its 55th gathering blueprint for administrative reforms. It included bureaucracy. A similar advisory body in India
to figure out that it needed to clarify that pepper The legacy and challenges of the IAS recommendations for lowering the permissible could help identify inefficiencies within the civil
and raisins supplied by farmers, gift vouchers The IAS, often called India’s “steel frame”, traces age of entry into the civil services, introducing service, promote data-driven decision-making,
and penalties levied on borrowers by banks and its origins to the colonial Indian Civil Service performance-based promotions and lateral entry, and develop metrics to assess bureaucratic
non-banking finance companies, are not taxable, (ICS). Post-Independence, it became the and establishing safeguards against arbitrary performance. A time-bound commission, such as
is instructive. Similarly, the switch to a three- backbone of India’s administrative machinery, transfers. However, many of these the DOGE’s expiration date tied to the U.S.
tiered levy for something as banal as popcorn — with officers occupying pivotal roles in recommendations remain unimplemented, semi-quincentennial, could also ensure that
despite the rationale of taxing sweetened varie- governance. Yet, this legacy has not been without stalled by bureaucratic inertia and political reform initiatives remain focused and actionable.
ties more in the name of health — after all these its cracks. Political interference, lack of resistance.
years, is worrying. Such moves neither reflect specialisation, and outdated personnel practices Challenges to reform
well on the Centre’s claims around its hurried Ju- have gradually eroded its effectiveness. Government’s push for reform Reforming India’s bureaucracy is no small task.
ly 2017 rollout that the GST is a ‘Good and Simple One of the pressing issues is the politicisation Recognising the limitations of the IAS-centric Despite its flaws, the IAS remains deeply
Tax’, nor does it bode well for a meaningful over- of the IAS. Frequent transfers, suspensions, and administrative model, the Modi government has entrenched in the country’s governance
haul of its multiple and complex rates’ structure promotions influenced by political loyalty rather sought to diversify governance by introducing structure. Proposals for lateral entry,
through a long-delayed rationalisation exercise. than merit, have undermined morale and lateral entry into senior bureaucratic positions. performance-based promotions, and specialised
That the Council also did not bother to consid- professionalism. Officers often struggle to This move is aimed at bringing domain experts training often face resistance from within the
er initial recommendations of a ministerial panel develop domain expertise due to frequent from the private sector and other government service, where seniority-based progression and
tasked with rejigging the GST rates, nor take up a rotations across departments, preventing them services into key policymaking roles, infusing generalist approaches are deeply
panel’s suggestions to review life and health insu- from becoming effective policy specialists in an fresh perspectives and specialised knowledge. institutionalised. Political interference further
rance policies’ taxation despite a commitment to increasingly complex governance landscape. Since 2018, the central government has complicates reform efforts. Proposals such as the
expedite this rethink, only diminishes expecta- Corruption and inefficiency plague the pursued lateral recruitment to bring individuals Civil Services Standards, Performance, and
tions from the panel going forward. That the pa- bureaucracy further. According to the World with specialised knowledge and domain expertise Accountability Bill (2010), which sought to
nel’s head left the meeting early, stating it will Bank’s measure of government effectiveness, into specific assignments. By 2023, this initiative protect bureaucrats from arbitrary transfers, have
hold further deliberations on insurance policies’ India ranks only moderately, reflecting the poor saw the appointment of 57 officers, many of languished in legislative limbo. Even judicial
levies soon, is not comforting, if not entirely ca- quality of policy implementation and whom were drawn from the private sector, interventions, such as the Supreme Court of
sual — especially as the government has been pro- administrative independence. Without reform, reflecting a deliberate effort to infuse fresh talent India’s directive to establish civil services boards
mising action on this front since the Budget ses- these systemic inefficiencies threaten to stymie and perspectives into governance. The Union in 2013, have had limited impact due to lack of
sion. The dithering, for whatever reason, is India’s economic growth and governance Public Service Commission (UPSC) recently enforcement.
beginning to hurt the industry too. In November, objectives. Persistent advertised 45 posts for lateral entry, including A multifaceted approach to administrative
new life insurance business tanked for the first Executive-led governance in India, positions for Joint Secretaries and Directors reform is vital to address the challenges of India’s
challenges
time this year as consumers held off on buying a characterised by centralised decision-making, has across various ministries. This shift has disrupted bureaucracy. Recruitment must prioritise merit
cover in anticipation of a GST cut. The longer this yielded mixed results. While it has facilitated
within the the IAS’s traditional dominance, with only 33% of and domain expertise, with promotions tied to
indecision, and the feet-dragging on the broader rapid economic reforms and infrastructure Indian Joint Secretaries at the Centre now belonging to measurable performance rather than seniority.
rate rationalisation plan, launched over three development, it has also led to bottlenecks in Administrative the IAS, compared to near-total dominance a Protecting bureaucrats from politically motivated
years ago, persists, the worse will be the implica- policy implementation and a lack of Service and the decade ago. transfers and fostering specialisation in
tions on consumption that has already turned accountability. The centralised power structure wider However, the lateral entry initiative has faced policymaking roles would enhance accountability
tentative, and private investment plans that hinge often sidelines bureaucrats’ insights and bureaucracy resistance. Critics, including retired civil servants, and efficiency. Further, the government should
on consumption as well as tax certainty. The expertise, reducing their ability to act as effective argue that it could undermine incumbent morale invest in a robust data infrastructure to track
have
Council’s decision to reverse an October verdict policy executors. and distort promotion incentives. Opposition bureaucratic performance, enabling informed
of the Supreme Court letting realty players claim Under Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s
highlighted the parties have also voiced concern about the lack of decisions on placements, promotions, and policy
input tax credits on costs of construction for leadership, the government has attempted to urgent need for reservation provisions for marginalised groups in implementation. Reform is essential for India’s
commercial structures intended for renting or address some of these shortcomings by curbing administrative these appointments. The Modi government’s economic aspirations and ensuring governance
leasing purposes, will also have ramifications on politicised transfers and introducing measures to reforms recent U-turn on lateral entry appointments, effectively serves its people.
India’s investment climate. With legal changes to
take retrospective effect from July 2017, this is a

The GATT-ification of the World Trade Organization


blast from the past for investors spooked by simi-
lar taxation misadventures over the past decade.

Canary in the canopy


T
he Geneva-based World Trade rules governing trade in goods, services, and hinder the U.S. from dealing decisively with
Economic growth cannot be allowed to Organization (WTO), which serves as a intellectual property, along with a binding China. As a result, the U.S. aims, in the words of
multilateral trade referee, is set to miss yet two-tier dispute settlement system featuring an international lawyer Daniel C.K. Chow, to
bypass environment laws another crucial target of revitalising “a full and appellate function, compulsory jurisdiction, and “wreck” the WTO system, including the Appellate

T
hrough history, forests for humans have well-functioning dispute settlement system” by effective retaliation for non-compliance. The Body, which would provide it with a free hand to
been sites of shelter, food, livelihoods, the end of 2024. It has been five years since the WTO’s promise of international rule of law was so address the perceived Chinese threat. The U.S.
protection, and strength of spirit. Ac- Appellate Body (AB), the second tier of the WTO’s Prabhash Ranjan compelling that it could not be matched even by can now employ trade remedial measures and
cording to the new India State of Forest Report two-tier dispute settlement system, has been Professor and the International Court of Justice. Scholars in develop industrial policies to counter the Chinese
2023, 25% of India’s land is covered by forests or non-operational due to the persistent blocking, Director, Centre for international law began to regard the WTO as a challenge, even if these actions violate WTO law,
trees, on its face a healthy figure and a step closer by the United States, of the appointment of the International constitutionalism project that would ensure the as there is no one to call it out. A classic example
to the National Forest Policy’s prescriptions. But Appellate Body members. Investment and Trade triumph of international law over international of this is the Trump administration’s decision in
big numbers always hide problems. Post-Inde- This obstruction began during Barack Obama’s Laws, Jindal Global politics. 2018 to impose a 25% tariff on Chinese products
pendence, India’s forest governance has been administration, escalated under Donald Trump’s Law School As the international trading community across various sectors. Mr. Trump’s promise to
typified by attempts to break free from European first presidency, and has continued under witnessed the transition from the General impose further tariffs during his second term,
colonialists’ insular view of forests as sources of President Joe Biden, reflecting a bipartisan Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) era that which could trigger another round of trade war,
timber, codified in laws the country inherited. political consensus in the U.S. The U.S.’s hostile held sway from 1948 to 1994 to the WTO, it indicates that international politics, rather than
Two significant achievements in this regard were stance towards the Appellate Body will intensify marked a shift from diplomacy-based trade international law, will dictate international trade.
the Forest (Conservation) Act 1980 and the Forest further under what is anticipated to be a highly multilateralism to a rule-based system. Celso
(Rights) Act 2006. The counteracting forces of in- protectionist Trump 2.0 administration. While Lafer, a former Chairman of the WTO’s dispute Regime change
dustrial development and the pressures of cli- the WTO panels, the first stage of dispute settlement body, described the creation of the This has led international lawyers such as Geraldo
mate change on the state have however troubled settlement, continue to operate and render WTO as the “thickening of legality” in Vidigal to argue that there is no longer a crisis in
the implementation of both Acts and the govern- decisions resolving trade disputes between WTO international trade relations. Put differently, the WTO but a regime change. As against the
ment has, sadly, chosen the easy way out. member countries, this is of little significance countries were willing to accept several thickening of the legality of international trade
Courts and conservationists have demanded because the losing country uses its legal restrictions on their state conduct and subject relations that we saw from a period of 1995 to
that the state follow the dictionary definition of prerogative to appeal to a non-operational AB, themselves to the binding jurisdiction of the 2019, we are witnessing its thinning. In other
forests whereas the administration has been and thus stall the adjudicatory process. However, WTO’s dispute settlement system including the words, while there is no complete de-legalisation
muddying it to exclude “community” forests, it is a fool’s errand to put the Appellate Body back Appellate Body. of international trade relations, countries are
among others, while including plantations and on track because the real issue is the WTO’s reclaiming significant control that was previously
orchards. Even if the administration’s impetus is existential crisis and its quest to be a relevant The unravelling ceded to the WTO in managing their state
murky, it is allowing India to claim it is growing its player in global trade. The larger game is not However, things began to unravel as the global conduct. The legal revolution of international
carbon sink towards its climate commitments about killing the Appellate Body but, rather, landscape changed due to China’s significant rise trade multilateralism that began in 1995 has not
while allowing developmental activities to conti- making the WTO dysfunctional. over the last two decades. The U.S. facilitated only been paused but is being reversed, moving
nue unimpeded. Thus, the 25% figure hides for- The legal China’s accession to the WTO in 2001, hoping this us back to the era of GATT diplomacy.
est cover loss in the biodiverse Western Ghats, The promise revolution of would lead Beijing to dismantle its state-led Understanding this “GATTification” of the WTO,
the Nilgiris and the northeast, the shrinking of To understand the future, it is important to first industrial policies which were detrimental to as Prof. Vidigal puts it, is crucial for grasping the
international
mangroves in the Kutch and the Andamans, and reflect on the past. The establishment of the WTO international trade, and adopt free-market current state of the international trading order.
in 1995 marked a milestone in international law. trade principles. However, this expectation did not No amount of technical negotiations in Geneva
of ‘moderately dense’ forests and the ongoing en-
dangerment of open natural ecosystems. The re- The rise of neoliberal ideology in the 1990s multilateralism materialise. There is a widespread belief in the can obscure this fact.
port also lacks details about whether its estimates played a critical role in this development. The is being U.S. that China exploited the WTO system to its
of the carbon sequestration potential of degrad- WTO established a comprehensive system of reversed advantage. The WTO and its institutional controls The views expressed are personal
ed land account for the specific uses to which
they are currently being subjected. Forest loss in
biodiverse areas cannot be adjusted with new LETTERS TO THE EDITOR
plantations elsewhere, the consequences of
which are exacerbated by the decision to include Centralisation push imbalance and a disruption unemployment in the Politics, red-tapism and But what is not so great to sit on staircases. More
even commercial plantations, which have lower A single election diminishes of the concept of agrarian sector. Put corruption are least about the situation is that chairs are brought in to seat
sequestration and ecological value, and the conti- the role and priorities of the cooperative federalism. differently, the services of expected in labour-intensive many of the sabhas are not more people, blocking all
nued use of the Compensatory Afforestation States and can only ‘One nation, one election’ is farmers/agricultural and socio-economic welfare implementing the required escape routes. The live
Fund Act. Indeed, the growing gap between the- marginalise them. The drive another step towards the labourers during the lean programmes. statutory fire safety kitchen adjoining the
oretical and actual forests also extends to financ- towards ‘one nation, one centralisation of many season are utilised in the S. Ramakrishnasayee, regulations, putting lives at auditorium in many places
es. In several northern districts, the extent of for- election’ (ONOE) is to have aspects of administration said scheme to create Chennai risk. Statutory fire safety is another potential fire
est cover that suffered fire losses has increased by India as a unitary, and schemes. The ‘cost’ infrastructural assets in regulations such as smoke hazard!
an order of magnitude in two years. Ground re- unidimensional, angle is unclear, as to date, rural areas. It is Music season, safety detection systems and The authorities concerned
ports by The Hindu have documented a paucity single-language nation, the savings for disheartening that This time of the year, alarms, unimpeded passage should, in the interest of
of human resources, skill, and equipment to con- which it certainly is not. We simultaneous polls have not corruption plagues the Chennai is busy with its ways, fire evacuation plans public safety, inspect the
trol fires. Economic growth is essential and trees are one because we are been quantified. scheme in West Bengal annual Marghazi music and strategies, and, various performing centres
will be lost, but this is precisely why the friction different. ONOE is H.N. Ramakrishna, (Page 1, December 23). season. City residents and importantly, trained and have the required fire
that laws impose on the growth impulse is essen- essentially to dislodge Bengaluru India is a federal country, non-resident Indians alike employees to handle a safety protocols
tial too. Yet, the government has been weakening regional parties as they and it is imperative that the throng the numerous possible fire outbreak, are implemented immediately.
environmental safeguards — more recently, the appear to have stymied the Rural employment scheme Union government and sabhas, enjoying music and conspicuously absent in B. Swaminathan,
Forest (Conservation) Amendment Act 2023 Bharatiya Janata Party’s The Mahatma Gandhi States work in unison to the other performing arts many of the sabhas. Chennai
further contracted the 1980 Act’s purview — and expansion moves. This push National Rural Employment ameliorate the economic apart from tasting exotic It is a common sight that Letters emailed to
distorting its official inventory of forests. It is hard from the government leads Guarantee Scheme is meant condition of the poor in food items despite their when popular artists letters@[Link]
to imagine anyone winning in the end. to needless structural to eliminate seasonal rural and urban areas. being exorbitantly priced. perform, people are allowed must carry the postal address.
CM A ND-NDE
YK
THE HINDU
Tuesday, December 24, 2024 7
Delhi
Opinion

Envisioning India as a global skill supplier All eyes on Kurnool


The Naidu government has charted out ambitious plans to develop the district

I
n an address in August, educational attainment below related to skill mobility and
Prime Minister Narendra matriculation and low skilled follow-up actions: introducing
Modi had said that he was workers migrating to 18 select identified skills and competencies part of the government’s am-
hopeful that India’s skilled countries. Such data inadequacy as a part of the curriculum in STATE OF PLAY bitious plans to turn the State
workforce will play a prominent stands as a major obstacle in specific institutions; reorienting into a drone capital. The And-
role in the global job market. formulating constructive polices. skill programmes of India’s Hareesh P. hra Pradesh government is al-
Global mega trends, such as India’s efforts have mostly International Skill Centres to meet hareesh.p@[Link] so planning to draft a drone
S.K. Sasikumar
demographic transitions, revolved around bilateral the global skill gaps; creating policy. Drones are especially

T
globalisation, technological Labour and migration agreements on international customised short-term skill he Andhra Pradesh go- useful in the healthcare and
advancements, and climate analyst and former labour mobility with different training geared towards vernment has made agriculture sectors, and dur-
change, are significantly altering senior faculty, countries covering aspects such as destination countries; and so on. several development ing calamities, as the govern-
V.V. Giri National
the demand for, and the supply of, social security, skills, protection, The priority must be to raise the plans for Kurnool, known as a ment found out during the re-
Labour Institute
international migrant workers. and welfare. These are primarily quality of skill development to backward district and the ga- cent floods in Vijayawada.
Among the various facets of such one-off exercises, not situated international standards. This calls teway to Rayalaseema. It has The government believes
changes, the skills of these within a composite policy for the convergence of the skill proposed a drone hub, en- dustries Minister T.G. Bharath that attracting investors to set
workers are assuming centrality in framework. Further, there are qualification systems of India and hanced industrial activity with announced in late November up units at the Orvakal node
public policy discourse. hardly any evaluations available the destination countries. India the development of the Orva- that the site survey for esta- will reap dividends. Orvakal is
Reviews of immigration policies on the outcomes of these pacts also needs a review of the National kal industrial node, greater blishing the Bench is under- located near the Kurnool air-
of the traditional and major and the learnings from them. Skills Qualification Framework to flight connectivity, and the es- way and said that the process port, which began commer-
migrant destinations (the U.S., the India must design and assess its effectiveness in aligning tablishment of a High Court would be completed in six cial operations from March
U.K., Canada, and Gulf operationalise a comprehensive our qualifications with those of the Bench. months. 2021. Air connectivity to Orva-
Cooperation Council countries) national policy on international major destination countries. Kurnool was the capital of Apart from the High Court, kal is also likely to increase as
and of the new destinations labour migration, with Considering that contemporary Andhra Pradesh from October Kurnool is eagerly awaiting the government is trying to
(Germany, South Korea, Japan, skill-centred migration anchored immigration policies encourage 1, 1953 to October 31, 1956. On the implementation of other persuade flight operators to
etc.) reveal the increased as one of the fundamental pillars. temporisation, return migration is November 1, 1956, the Telugu- promises too. Kurnool has al- run services to Vijayawada.
prioritising of skill-selective and Such a policy should clearly set gaining prominence in speaking areas of the erst- ways lagged behind in deve- Telugu Desam Party (TDP)
skill-intense immigration. Most of the road map for the different international skilled migration while Hyderabad province lopment. As it has very few in- MPs recently submitted a re-
the destination countries processes involved in transitioning flows. This is another area where were merged with Andhra dustries and inadequate presentation to the Centre
recognise that their ability to India as the global skill capital. India falls short: the optimum State to form Andhra Pradesh. irrigation facilities, thousands seeking a railway line that will
respond to certain developments, utilisation of return migrants’ During the merger, the Sri- of people have migrated from connect Kurnool to Amarava-
such as an ageing society, The way forward skills is one of the most neglected bagh Pact, an agreement bet- the district to other parts of ti, which will further propel
digitalisation, declining fertility The critical step in this direction is aspects of the country’s migration ween the political leaders of the State in search of better growth in the district.
rates, and the need for economic to identify and anticipate the policies. The best way to Coastal Andhra Pradesh and opportunities. In 2022, when Historically, Kurnool was a
diversification strategies to tackle ever-changing skills in demand in effectively reintegrate return Rayalaseema regions, pro- 13 new districts were carved stronghold of the TDP. Howev-
the challenging global economic select destination countries and migrants is to ensure that the skills mised that a High Court would out in Andhra Pradesh, Kur- er, this changed when Y.S. Ra-
environment, can be met only by the emergent skill gaps across and competencies they acquire in be set up in Kurnool. Howev- nool lost its major reservoirs jasekhara Reddy became
welcoming international migrant their key sectors and occupations. the destination countries are er, this did not happen. to Nandyal district. Promises Chief Minister. Later, Mr. Jagan
workers with the relevant skills. Organisations such as the accredited by specialised skill The idea was proposed to develop the district have Mohan Reddy’s YSR Congress
Can India rise to the occasion European Centre for the certification institutions in those again not too long ago. As part never been fulfilled or have Party dominated the undivid-
and bridge the global skills gaps? Development of Vocational countries so that migrants can of its decentralised develop- been partially fulfilled, leaving ed district of Kurnool in the
Responding effectively to the skill Training are actively involved in transition back effectively to the ment plan or the ‘three capi- several parts of the district 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elec-
needs of different destination skill forecasting for European Indian labour market when they tals’ proposal, the previous Ja- underdeveloped. tions. In the 2024 elections,
countries is a complex task. countries using rigorous return. gan Mohan Reddy The Centre recently an- however, the National Demo-
Robust and evidence-based policy methodologies. Data and insights Another pressing need is a government said it would de- nounced that it would pump cratic Alliance managed to flip
interventions are essential to obtained from regional and skill-centred international labour velop Kurnool as the judicial in about ₹2,700 crore for deve- Rayalaseema’s long-standing
facilitate skill-centred India must national skill-forecasting exercises, migration information system, capital. A few judicial bodies loping infrastructure in the political dynamics. Of the 14
international labour migration especially for the U.S., the U.K. encompassing quantitative and and commissions were shifted Orvakal node of the Hydera- seats in undivided Kurnool,
design a
outflows from India. and Canada, that mostly cover the qualitative indicators. Such a to Kurnool and the district bad-Bengaluru Industrial Cor- the TDP secured 12.
comprehensive medium term (2-5 years), can help platform should regularly collate, was notified as the headquar- ridor. The government plans Given the TDP’s dominance
Fragmented policy structure national policy India respond to skill needs. This generate, analyse, and report ters of the State Human Rights to integrate several manufac- and as Mr. Naidu has proved
However, India still lacks a on international should be supplemented by big information and data on key Commission in 2023. Howev- turing clusters between Hyde- his capability in transforming
comprehensive policy architecture labour data analytics of real-time online indicators of skills and migration er, the High Court remained in rabad and Bangaluru in the grand visions into reality in
for international labour mobility. migration, with job vacancies in destination to enable evidence-based Amaravati. The ‘three capi- Orvakal node near Kurnool. the past, there is hope that
The policy interventions are skill-centred countries for which India seeks to interventions. This will be pivotal tals’ proposal ran into hurdles. The plan to set up a 300- Kurnool may finally see a
fragmented and are often not become the lead supplier of skills. in fostering skill partnerships This year, Chandrababu acre drone hub at Orvakal, the brighter future. The TDP go-
migration
based on evidence. The only data Once this is done, India’s between India and the principal Naidu returned as Chief Minis- first-of-its-kind in the country, vernment is also at an advan-
source for annual migrant labour anchored as one capacity to provide the requisite destination countries, boosting ter. In November 2024, the will also boost industrial deve- tage compared to the YSRCP
outflows from India is the data on of the skills must be assessed. This will skill-centred mobility, and Andhra Pradesh Assembly lopment as it serve as a centre government as the Bharatiya
emigration clearances, which fundamental entail systematic mapping of the improving migration and passed a resolution for a High for training, innovation, and Janata Party is also part of the
covers only those with an pillars country’s skill development efforts developmental outcomes. Court Bench in Kurnool. In- drone-related business. This is government in the State.

Indian visa denials linked to fraud, not housing crisis, in Australia FROM THE A RC HIV ES

While students were blamed for the housing crisis, visa grant rates for Chinese students remain unaffected
FIFTY YEARS AGO DECEMBER 24, 1974

in Australia. China and India are An old Kerala musical


DATA POINT shown separately because they
form the top two shares of interna- instrument
Sambavi Parthasarathy tional students by a significant
Vignesh Radhakrishnan margin. The overall visa grant rate Madras, Dec. 23: At the meeting of the Experts
Amitha Reji George has dropped significantly from Committee held to-day in connection with the
more than 90% before the pan- 48th conference of the Music Academy, Sri
Chummar Choondal presented a paper on

A
ffordable homes are be- demic to below 80% after, in line
coming increasingly scarce with the new tightening. The grant Nanthuny, an old musical instrument of Kerala
in Australia. The govern- rate for Indian students dropped in vogue among Mannars (Vannar in Tamil) —
ment attributed last year’s sharp from nearly 90% to 65%. But for the washerman community. It was used as a tala
rise in immigration as a key factor Chinese students, it has remained and sruti accompaniment for the recital of songs
that is contributing to the crisis. In close to 95% even in recent years. on Bhagavati. The instrument is 4.5 feet hollow
response, it has implemented Is this disparity because Indian wooden body, with two fibre strings and played
measures to restrict the inflow of students are more concentrated in with a plectrum made of horn. Although it has
students whose numbers skyrock- regions with acute housing crises, five frets only the middle and lower are pressed.
eted last year, significantly outpac- while Chinese students are not? The fibre strings produce two or three notes and
ing the numbers of skilled mi- Chart 3 shows that Chinese stu- the sruti provided is approximately one kattai.
grants and other categories. dents outnumber Indian students Nanthuny seems to be a corruption for
An Australian government de- in Sydney (New South Wales), Nan-dhvani meaning “good sound”. It is in
partment’s analysis shows that where the housing crisis is more vogue chiefly in Central and North Kerala among
60% of international students live severe, whereas Indian students Mannar Velaan and Perumannan communities
in apartments, 26% in detached outnumber Chinese students in during Bhagavati worship and other rituals.
houses, and the remainder in hos- Melbourne (Victoria), where it is There were references to this instrument in
tels or university housing. These comparatively better. If the hous- Malayalam works of the end of 14th century.
numbers, read along with the un- ing crisis was the primary factor Oomanattu Sankunni, 76, gave a demonstration
precedented surge in international for increased visa denials, Chinese on the instrument.
students in 2023, shed light on the students should have faced more Sri Titte Krishna Iyengar, speaking on the
acute housing crisis, particularly rejections given their higher con- contribution to music of the Maharajas of
in Sydney and Melbourne, which centration in Sydney. So, what ex- Mysore, said the first Maharaja of Mysore who
attract most of these students. plains the higher denial rates for started the Navaratri festival for which Mysore
Chart 1 illustrates the Rental Af- Indian students? became famous, was Raja Wadiyar (1578-1670).
fordability Index in the greater The answer might lie in another Chikka Devaraja Wadiyar (1673-1704) played the
capital areas of Sydney and Mel- problem — mounting visa fraud. Kalavati Veena and composed the musical poem
bourne, where a higher index indi- The Australian government’s De- Gita Gopala in the style of Gita Govinda.
cates better affordability. Rent af- partment of Education says there Krishnaraja Wadiyar (1895-1940) encouraged
fordability has plummeted in both is a higher proportion of “high- many distinguished musicians. Sri
regions, with the decline being risk” student visa applications Jayachamaraja Wadiyar was a scholar and
much steeper in Sydney than Mel- from India, Nepal, and Pakistan. composer who continued the patronage
bourne. This coincides with the Chart 4 shows the visa process- extended by Mysore Court.
sharp increase in student arrivals. ing time in days for Chinese and In-
While the housing crisis, exa- dian students between April and A HUNDRED YEARS AGO DECEMBER 24, 1924
cerbated by a surge in student July this year and last year. The
numbers, provided a rationale for processing time is separately de- Bolshevism in China
limiting student intake, a closer noted for three types of student vi-
look reveals disparities in how sa applications: straightforward Paris, Dec. 23: The anxiety regarding the
these restrictions were applied. (satisfies most necessities), typical, forthcoming events in the Far East was voiced
Students from certain countries, and complex (lacks many require- by M. Outrey, Deputy for Indo-China, in the
particularly India, were impacted ments). Although the processing course of the debate on colonial estimates in the
disproportionately, while students time has increased for Chinese and chamber. M. Outrey said he apprehended one
from other countries, notably Chi- Indian students, Indian student vi- organisation of a Bolshevist Government in
na, grew in number this year des- sas are processed for a much lon- China. He knew that Japan had protected herself
pite the restrictions. ger time, which is attributed to against the movement by an understanding with
Chart 2 depicts the visa grant their classification as “high-risk”. Mr. Changtsolin, and Japan and Korea would
rates for students from India, Chi- Thus the higher rejection rate for certainly be saved from the wave of Bolshevism.
na, and all countries who applied Indian students is better explained But it was also certain that the wave would
for higher education and vocation- by an increase in visa fraud rather spread beyond China, and soon reach
al education and training courses than the housing crisis. Indo-China, Burma, and India.
CM A ND-NDE
YK
Delhi [Link] Tuesday, December 24, 2024
● ●

Text&Context 0
NEWS IN NUMBERS
Manipur police Casualties suffered by Police personnel to be India’s oil imports Highest-ever monthly
recruits passing out North Korea in deployed in Prayagraj from West Asia in traffic recorded in
from Assam Academy Russia-Ukraine war for Maha Kumbh Mela November Lucknow Airport

2,000 1,100 50,000 2.28 6.29


Nearly 2,000 More than 1,000 The In billion barrels per In lakh. The
recruits of North Korean 2025 day (bpd). India’s Chaudhary Charan
the Manipur soldiers have Maha November crude Singh International
police passed out from the Lachit been killed or wounded in Russia’s war Kumbh Mela will see a strong force of imports showed West Asian oil at a Airport has managed an all-time monthly
Borphukan Police Academy on Monday, with Ukraine, South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of 50,000 police personnel fanning out across nine-month high while Russia accounted high of passenger movement in November.
strengthening the force in the Staff (JCS) said on Monday. The new figure Prayagraj to respond to potential terror for its smallest share in three quarters. Dubai, Muscat and Dammam were the top
violence-hit northeastern State, an official follows a report by Seoul’s spy agency to threats, cyber attacks, rogue drones and Refiners in India have been gorging on three international destinations. PTI
said. PTI MPs last week. AFP human trafficking. PTI cheaper Russian oil. REUTERS COMPILED BY THE HINDU DATA TEAM

Follow us [Link]/thehindu [Link]/the_hindu [Link]/the_hindu

India’s reliance on China for critical minerals


Does China have unparalleled dominance in the critical minerals sector? How was it able to do so? What are the minerals for which India is heavily dependent on
China? Why has India not been able to excavate the lithium reserves found in Jammu and Kashmir?

EXPLAINER batteries and steel production, faces THE GIST


supply constraints as China controls
67.2% of global output, including
Rakshith Shetty battery-grade material. 쑽
China’s dominance extends
The story so far: Why does India rely on imports? beyond reserves to include

T
he Ministry of Mines in 2023 Despite being endowed with significant processing and refining, with
identified 30 critical minerals mineral resources, India’s heavy reliance control over 87% of rare earth
deemed essential for the on imports stem from several structural processing, 58% of lithium
nation’s economic challenges in its mining and processing refining, and 68% of silicon
development and national security. While ecosystem. Many critical minerals are processing.
the report highlighted India’s complete deep-seated, requiring high-risk
import dependency for 10 critical investments in exploration and mining 쑽
minerals, it did not fully address a more technologies — a factor that has deterred An in-depth examination of
pressing concern — the extent and nature private sector participation in the absence import data of 30 critical
of dependency on China. of adequate incentives and policy minerals spanning 2019 to
support. The country’s processing 2024 reveals India’s acute
Is China a dominant player? capabilities are also limited. This is vulnerability to Chinese
China’s unparalleled dominance in critical particularly evident in the case of the supplies, particularly for six
minerals stems from its vast resource base recently discovered lithium deposits in critical minerals where
and strategic investments across the value Jammu and Kashmir, where despite the dependency exceeds 40%.
chain. As the world’s largest mining presence of 5.9 million tonnes of 쑽
nation, China has discovered 173 types of resources in clay deposits, India lacks the
Despite being endowed with
minerals, including 13 energy minerals, 59 technological capability to extract lithium
significant mineral resources,
metallic minerals, and 95 non-metallic from such geological formations.
India’s heavy reliance on
minerals. Reserves of nearly 40% of these imports stem from several
minerals, particularly copper, lead, zinc, What is the way forward? structural challenges in its
nickel, cobalt, lithium, gallium, India has initiated a multi-pronged mining and processing
germanium, and crystalline graphite, approach to reduce its dependency on ecosystem.
increased significantly last year, China. The government has established
supported by an exploration investment semiconductors, batteries, and high-tech exceeds 40%: bismuth (85.6%), lithium KABIL, a joint venture of three
of $19.4 billion. This led to the discovery manufacturing. However, China carefully (82%), silicon (76%), titanium (50.6%), State-owned companies, to secure
of 132 new mineral deposits, including 34 balances these decisions against two tellurium (48.8%), and graphite (42.4%). overseas mineral assets. India has also
large ones. China’s dominance extends constraining factors: it avoids controlling Bismuth, primarily used in joined strategic initiatives like the
beyond reserves to include processing minerals which heavily depend on pharmaceuticals and chemicals, has few Minerals Security Partnership and the
and refining, with control over 87% of Western raw material imports, and it alternative sources, with China Critical Raw Materials Club to diversify its
rare earth processing, 58% of lithium refrains from actions that could disrupt its maintaining an estimated 80% of global supply sources and strengthen
refining, and 68% of silicon processing. domestic industrial enterprises or refinery production. Lithium, crucial for partnerships. The country is also
Furthermore, China has strategically export-dependent sectors. This strategic EV batteries and energy storage, faces investing in research through institutions
invested in overseas mining projects and calculus was evident in China’s 2010 rare processing bottlenecks, despite like the Geological Survey of India and the
built unparalleled midstream refining earth embargo against Japan, its recent alternative raw material sources, as China Council for Scientific and Industrial
capabilities, raising supply chain restrictions on antimony, gallium, and controls 58% of global refining. Silicon, Research while promoting recycling and
vulnerabilities for countries including germanium exports, and its December vital for semiconductors and solar panels, circular economy practices to reduce
India, the U.S., and EU nations. 2023 ban on rare earth extraction and requires sophisticated processing virgin mineral dependency.
processing technologies. technology that few countries possess. Production-linked incentives for
What about China’s export controls? Titanium, essential for aerospace and extracting critical minerals through
When it comes to China’s approach to Is India dependent on China? defence applications, has diversified recycling also seem promising. However,
weaponising critical mineral exports, it is An in-depth examination of import data sources but involves high switching costs. transitioning away from China will require
strategic and calculated. Beijing primarily of 30 critical minerals spanning 2019 to Tellurium, important for solar power and sustained investment and long-term
targets minerals deemed critical by 2024 reveals India’s acute vulnerability to thermoelectric devices, is dominated by commitment to these various initiatives.
Western nations and their allies, Chinese supplies, particularly for six China’s 60% global production share and The writer is a research analyst at The
especially those essential for critical minerals where dependency finally graphite, indispensable for EV Takshashila Institution.

Why has the MHA reimposed


refugees took shelter in Mizoram and THE GIST
around 4,000 refugees are said to have
entered Manipur. The migrants belonging
to the Kuki-Chin-Zo ethnic group share 쑽

restrictions in three NE States?


ethnic ties with the communities in On December 17, the Union
Mizoram and Manipur. India shares a Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA)
1,643 km long border with Myanmar reimposed the Protected Area
which passes through the States of Regime (PAR) in the States of
Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur Manipur, Nagaland, and
What is the protected area regime? What did the Foreigners (Protected Areas) Order, 1958 stipulate? Did the and Mizoram, The Free Movement Mizoram to restrict and
ethnic violence in Manipur lead to imposing restrictions on movement and mobility? Regime (FMR) between the two countries, monitor the movement of
allowing movement of people living foreigners.
within 16 kms of the international border,
Vijaita Singh permit issued by the Central government promote tourism. The relaxation was was suspended by the MHA in January.

or any office authorised by the Central initially for a period of one year. It was A copy of the circular accessed
The story so far: government. The permit shall include the subsequently extended for a duration of How does one obtain a PAP? by The Hindu said that the
matter was examined by the

O
n December 17, the Union following details — place of entry, place of 1-2 years till 2022 when it was further The permits can be secured from Indian
Ministry of Home Affairs residence and period of stay. The areas relaxed for another five years till missions, the MHA, district magistrates, Ministry in “the backdrop of
(MHA) reimposed the falling between the inner line and the December 31, 2027. On December 17, the resident commissioners of a State, Home growing security concerns in
Protected Area Regime (PAR) international Border of the following relaxation was withdrawn for the States. Commissioners or Foreigners Regional border areas of these States.”
in the States of Manipur, Nagaland, and States and Union Territories were Registration Office (FRRO) among others. 쑽
Mizoram to restrict and monitor the declared as Protected Areas — parts of Why was it withdrawn? Like earlier, citizens of Afghanistan,
movement of foreigners. From now on, Himachal Pradesh and Jammu and A copy of the circular accessed by The China, Pakistan and foreign nationals From now on, foreigners
visiting the three States would
foreigners visiting the three States would Kashmir, Ladakh, Rajasthan and Hindu said that the matter was examined having their origin in the three countries
have to seek prior permission
have to seek prior permission and Uttarakhand and the whole of Manipur, by the Ministry in “the backdrop of would continue to require prior approval
and Protected Area Permits
Protected Area Permits (PAP) from the Mizoram, Nagaland, and Sikkim (partly as growing security concerns in border areas from the MHA. All foreigners visiting (PAP) from the government.
government. The circular stated that the protected areas and partly as restricted of these States.” Manipur, bordering these States will mandatorily register
relaxation provided to the three States areas). Another Order in 1963 declared Myanmar has been affected by ethnic themselves with the Foreigners
under the Foreigners (Protected Areas) entire Andaman & Nicobar Islands and violence between the tribal Kuki-Zo and Registration Officer of the State or the
Order, 1958 was being withdrawn with parts of Sikkim as “restricted area.” the Meitei people since May 3, 2023. Chief District they visit within 24 hours of their
immediate effect. Minister N. Biren Singh has attributed the arrival. Myanmar nationals visiting the
When was the Order first relaxed? ongoing violence in the State to “outsiders three States, who till now were excluded
What does the 1958 Order entail? The PAR was relaxed for the whole of and foreign hands.” from the requirement of obtaining a PAP
The Order stated that no foreigner shall Manipur, Mizoram and Nagaland on After a military coup in Myanmar in if they had an e-tourist visa or any other
enter into or remain in any protected area December 30, 2010 in wake of an February 2021, there was an influx of visa, should compulsorily register with
except under and in accordance with a improved security scenario, and to undocumented migrants — over 40,000 the FRRO within 24 hours of their arrival.
CM A ND-NDE
YK
THE HINDU
Tuesday, December 24, 2024 9
Delhi
Text&Context
CACHE

How does Google’s GenCast AI,


which predicts the weather, work?
Like ChatGPT can identify what the next word in an unfinished sentence could be, GenCast can guess what the future weather will be given the
weather until some point

Vasudevan Mukunth
GenCast was trained in two steps:
The story so far:
step I in 3.5 days and step II in
n December 4, Google 1.5 days, both with 32 TPU v5

O DeepMind unveiled GenCast,


an Artificial Intelligence (AI)
model the company said could
forecast the weather better than most
existing tools as well as more days in
instances. ‘TPU’ is short for
‘tensor processing unit’, an
integrated circuit Google
developed to run
machine-learning models, sold via
advance. Details of the model were
published in a peer-reviewed paper in the
Google Cloud. In December 2023,
journal Nature. Google Cloud launched a TPU FROM THE ARCHIVES
called v5
How do we forecast weather?
“Weather predictions ... are produced by
running multiple numerical simulations (latitude-longitude) and temporal
Know your
of the atmosphere,” Vassili Kitsios, senior resolution of 12 hours. The researchers
research scientist at the Commonwealth
Scientific and Industrial Research
found this entire process took GenCast
running on one TPU v5 unit eight
English
Organisation of Australia, wrote earlier minutes, much shorter than the several
this month. “Each simulation starts from hours required by supercomputers for K. Subrahmanian
a slightly different estimate of the current NWP. S. Upendran
weather. This is because we don’t know
exactly what the weather is at this instant Will GenCast replace NWP? “Why is writing difficult?”
everywhere in the world. ... By solving GenCast’s forecasts are probabilistic “Real language is spoken language.
equations describing the fundamental rather than deterministic, that is, “there Almost everybody acquires his/her
physical laws of nature, the simulations will be 25% chance of rain in Chennai on mother tongue and speaks it satisfactorily.
predict what will happen in the December 25” rather than “there will be 5 We speak much of the time. But very few
atmosphere.” mm of rain in Chennai on December 25”. write. Writing is a skill you develop with
This process is called Numerical Current NWP models and their ensembles more and more writing. Writing came
Weather Prediction (NWP). The best NWP are deterministic. Experts have said into being after invention of the alphabet.
forecasts require the use of powerful probabilistic weather forecasts are better We reduce into writing what we want to
supercomputers as well as high-quality at revealing the possibility of extreme say, what we feel. So many thoughts
data about the weather at a particular weather events. crowd into our mind. They don’t come to
location. Even then NWPs can predict the “We should make more use of these us one by one. Normally, when we write,
weather only a week or so in advance. probabilistic forecasts for extreme events we choose one thought at a time and give
Ensemble forecasts entered the picture instead of relying on quantitative it a linear form. There is a spontaneity in
in the 1990s. Here, scientists use an NWP predictions. Probabilistic forecasts speech, It is not there in writing. Before
model to produce multiple forecasts at a provide more lead time, which can be we write, we sit down and think of what
certain location in time, with different used for better preparation,” former we should write. It is a mental activity. I
starting conditions. This collection of secretary to the Indian government am not talking about inspired poets and
forecasts is called an ensemble and Madhavan Rajeevan wrote in The Hindu in others who say that they don’t think and
indicates the range of meteorological December 2023. write but words flow through them and
possibilities. This said, while GenCast’s performance they write them down. We are not talking
suggests AI weather models will soon about such people. We are talking about
How does GenCast perform? surpass the abilities of NWP models, both those who want to write letters, articles,
Google’s GenCast uses ensemble NWP and GenCast are founded on more etc. When we are asked to say orally what
forecasting too but the options in the fundamental weather data still acquired we want to, we do it reasonably well.
ensemble come from an AI model rather using the laws of physics. When we are asked to put it down in
than an NWP. Engineers at Google trained Experts have said understanding the writing, we find some difficulty. We worry
this AI model on 40 years of reanalysis weather using these laws remains or must worry about clarity, simplicity
data, from 1979 to 2019. According to the important because the weather is and the appropriate vocabulary. We look
European Centre for Medium-Range changing rapidly in many parts of the at the ceiling, scratch our head hoping for
Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), “Reanalysis world, in ways in which historical the right word to fall from heaven! We
data provide the most complete picture weather conditions can’t prepare us for. write, rewrite, chop and change. Writing
currently possible of past weather and GenCast itself requires more reanalysis is a wrestle with words. Every sensitive
climate. They are a blend of observations data to train itself. As Google said in a writer feels what Eliot says in ‘East Coker’:
with past short-range weather forecasts Schematic diagram showing how GenCast generates a forecast. PRICE, I., SANCHEZ-GONZALEZ, A., ALET, F. ET public statement: “We deeply value our So here I am in the middle way, having
rerun with modern weather forecasting AL. PROBABILISTIC WEATHER FORECASTING WITH MACHINE LEARNING, NATURE (2024) partnerships with weather agencies, and had twenty years...
models.” will continue working with them to Trying to learn to use words, and every
GenCast was trained in two steps: step accurate than ENS on 99.8% of the 1,320 data, runs a second refinement, then develop AI-based methods that enhance attempt
I in 3.5 days and step II in 1.5 days, both targets when asked to predict the weather combines the new output with the input their forecasting. Is a wholly new start, and a different
with 32 TPU v5 instances. ‘TPU’ is short more than 36 hours in advance. data, runs a third refinement, and so on Meanwhile, traditional models remain kind of failure
for ‘tensor processing unit’, an integrated until it finishes 30 refinements. The final essential for this work. For one thing, Because one has only learnt to get the
circuit Google developed to run How does GenCast work? de-noised output, called X1, is the final they supply the training data and initial better of words
machine-learning models, sold via Google The AI model described in the paper had weather prediction for the next moment weather conditions required by models For the thing one no longer has to say,
Cloud. In December 2023, Google Cloud a neural network with 41,162 nodes and in time. To predict the weather for the such as GenCast.” The code to run or the way in which
launched a TPU called v5p: it contains 2.4 lakh edges. Each node is a point in the moment after, the model begins by GenCast is available on GitHub. One is no longer disposed to say it. And
8,960 chips interconnected with a network where some input data is accepting X1 as the input and starts afresh DeepMind has also been working on a so each venture
bandwidth of 4,800 Gbps/chip, and costs accepted, manipulated, and an output is with a noisy input. The green boxes have model called GraphCast to develop Is a new beginning, a raid on the
$4.2 per chip-hour on demand. generated as the input for another node. the neural networks. “deterministic medium-range forecasts”. inarticulate
Just like ChatGPT is good at identifying An edge is a connection between nodes. The ability to de-noise a noisy input is Google Research has been developing a With shabby equipment always
what the next word in an unfinished For how this setup processes data, see a common feature of a diffusion-type AI model called NeuralGCM that combines deteriorating
sentence could be, GenCast is good at the diagram above. The globes at the model, which GenCast is. Other famous AI and NWP models to generate In the general mess of imprecision of
guessing what the weather will be in the bottom show a weather prediction at four apps that use diffusion models include deterministic forecasts, and at least two feeling,
next moment given the weather until points of time, one after the other. Each OpenAI’s text-to-video model Sora and other models to predict extreme floods Undisciplined squads of emotion.”
some point. According to the Nature prediction is generated by combining Stability AI’s text-to-image model Stable and to quantify forecasting uncertainties. “So each venture is a new beginning,
paper, GenCast had “greater skill than existing weather data with a noisy input. Diffusion, both of which are also Elsewhere, Huawei’s Pangu-Weather raid on the inarticulate. But this is true
ENS on 97.2% of 1,320 targets we GenCast’s challenge is to extract from the examples of generative AI. model can predict the weather one week only of great writing, Isn’t it?
evaluated and better predicts extreme noisy input — the globes on the top — a GenCast produces at least 50 forecasts at a time with accuracy comparable to “It is true of all writing. The moment
weather, tropical cyclone tracks and wind weather prediction for the next moment at a time for the ensemble, and Google NWP but much faster. Nvidia’s you start writing, you realise how true it
power production.” ENS refers to the in time. To do this, the model runs the has said each forecast can be produced in FourCastNet model can already is. You write and rewrite because you are
ensemble forecasts generated by ECMWF, combination through a refinement (green parallel. In all, the ensemble contains outperform a state-of-the-art NWP facility dissatisfied. You feel you have not
considered one of the best in NWP. box), produces a less noisy prediction, forecasts for 15 days at a time, with a at ECMWF at predicting extreme rainfall, conveyed adequately what is in your
Google also said GenCast was more then combines this again with the input spatial resolution of 0.25° x 0.25° in less than two seconds. mind.”
“O.K. So the first rule says that I should
use familiar words and not pompous,
far-fetched words.”
Please send in your answers to “Yes.”
THE DAILY QUIZ dailyquiz@[Link] “What does the second rule say?”
“We’ll take it up next week.”
Published in The Hindu on November 1,
1994.
A quiz on the occasion of the birth centenary of the legendary singer Mohammed Rafi
V.V. Ramanan all genres during his wonderful Questions and Answers to the previous
career and won many awards. day’s daily quiz: 1. This person said that One
X For which song did he get his Hundred Years of Solitude was “the greatest
QUESTION 1 only national award in 1977? revelation in the Spanish language since ‘Don
Rafi’s first public performance was at X
Quixote’”. Ans: Pablo Neruda
the age of 13, when he was allowed to QUESTION 5 2. García Márquez began giving his manuscripts
sing at a concert featuring which Why is the number ‘Tasveer to this person before submitting them. Ans:
famous singing star of the era? Teri Dil Mein’ from Maya Fidel Castro
X infamous in Rafi’s career? 3. García Márquez consider this his “true
QUESTION 2 X
profession”. Ans: Journalism
His vocal talents were discovered QUESTION 6 4. García Márquez considered this as an
when he entertained customers while Which Rafi number was used exceptional piece of work in journalism. Ans:
indulging in what profession? in the soundtrack of the ‘Hiroshima’ by John Hersey
X Hollywood flick Ghost World? 5. García Márquez wanted this novel to be
QUESTION 3 X
destroyed, but his sons published it a decade
Name the song composed by Husnlal QUESTION 7 after his death. Ans: Until August
Bhagatram that he rendered What is the significance of 6. García Márquez considered this his most
immediately after the assassination of these lines ‘Tere aaney ki aas important book from a literary viewpoint. Ans:
Mahatma Gandhi that touched a hai dost, Shaam phir kyun The Autumn of the Patriarch For feedback and suggestions for
chord with PM Nehru? udaas hai dost, Mehki mehki X Visual: The location of this statue. Ans: Text & Context, please write to
X fiza yeh kehti hai, To kahin aas Visual question: Aracataca letters@[Link]
QUESTION 4 paas hai dost’ from a song in This screenshot shows the first on-screen appearance of Rafi in the Early Birds: Sonali Das| Tito Shiladitya| Tamal with the subject ‘Text & Context’
Rafi recorded around 7,405 songs in Aas Paas? song ‘Tera Jalwa Jisne Dekha’. Name the film. Biswas| Piyali Tuli| Sumana Dutta
CM A ND-NDE
YK
6 . bl . think
DELHI

businessline.
TUESDAY - DECEMBER 24 - 2024

TUESDAY - DECEMBER 24, 2024


LINE &
LENGTH.
Forgotten, Ambedkar
the economist
TCA SRINIVASA RAGHAVAN

GST convolutions
T
he ongoing graceless and
unedifying tussle between
the Congress and the BJP
over BR Ambedkar brings to
Conceived as a simple tax, it is now quite the opposite mind the famous line from DEEP INSIGHTS. The main challenges we face today,
Shakespeare’s Julius Caesar: “The evil
he decisions of the 55th meeting of the GST of unemployment, under-employment and low productivity,

T
that men do lives after them; The good is
Council are an elaborate exercise in rate oft interred with their bones.” Read
reservations and economics,
he identified over 100 years ago
tinkering, with a bias more towards raising respectively.
revenues than providing tax relief. For an exercise I am reminded of this line because of
that began seven years ago to simplify the indirect tax the extreme absurdity of the ongoing
battle over one of the great intellectuals
system, there is no escaping the impression that the India has produced, Ambedkar. But the
GST Council is moving the other way. Nehruvian Congress denied him his
place in history which, ironically, the
The Council has made over a dozen current rump is seeking to restore.
changes in tax rates, mooted a handful of Not that the BJP and the RSS are very
steps to improve trade facilitation and still much better. Left to themselves they
would, as indeed they have, ignore
more by way of amendments to the GST Act. Ambedkar’s economic analysis as
In this clutter, some positives and negatives comprehensively as the Congress did.
stand out. Overall, businesses and the It’s only of late that he has become their
common man may feel short-changed. A mascot, for all the wrong reasons.
The politicians only remember him as
decision on exempting health insurance a politician, which he became a decade
from GST has been too slow in coming. Nor after he had become an economist. As a
has the transition out of compensation cess result all the politicians have completely
been worked out. On the positives, these forgotten Ambedkar the economist.
include a serious intent to make the They have rejected the best part.
registration process easier for small entities; UNRESOLVED ISSUES PTI
affirming that vouchers as well as supply of So it’s worth reminding ourselves of his
goods warehoused in a Special Economic analyses of Indian economic problems
Zone or Free Trade Warehousing Zone are 107 years ago. Yes. 107. In a nutshell he have neither employment nor perhaps that’s probably why the The explanation perhaps lies in what
identified, hold your breath, productivity. Congress had no time for him. But it can the BJP has been doing since 2014.
not taxable; providing compliance relief to unemployment, under-employment and Another Ambedkar insight was that it revive his economic views now and give While loudly proclaiming its devotion to
those under the composition scheme on low productivity in the Indian economy was de-industrialisation, and not small up, as it did between 1991 and 2014, the Ambedkar, it has been careful to avoid
rented property; and clarifying that no GST as its main challenges. They remain even farms, that was responsible for the low leftist prescriptions which it has his economic ideas.
is payable on penalty levied by banks and today, unaddressed and unsolved. productivity of labour. In the 1960s readopted now. There’s a lot of research Ambedkar would have been appalled
Worse, thanks to the Nehruvian policies Amartya Sen reached the same available now. at the extent of freebies that the BJP is
NBFCs on borrowers. of the Second and Third Five Year Plans conclusion. subsidising the poor in one guise or
However, the Council has generated they will remain unsolved. Ambedkar also had very clear views on UNDER PRESSURE another.
confusion on some counts. This includes its Ambedkar had a straightforward monetary and exchange rate policies. He It turned left first in 1956 after Nehru Indeed, it has been behaving exactly
apparent reversal of the Supreme Court solution that remains valid even today: was against fixed exchange rates. He came under severe pressure from his like the Congress. It believes, as strongly
ruling a few months ago in the ‘Safari invest in agriculture. He had pointed out wanted a slight devaluation of the rupee. own party for low growth. It turned as the Nehru-Indira Congress did, that
in 1918 that low wage employment was Above all, he thought the currency further leftward when Indira Gandhi the state alone must control economic
Retreats’ case, which is likely to hurt the because of low productivity. That’s should be fully replaced every ten years became dependent on the Communists resources and their distribution. And in
construction sector. The proposal to tax where the problem still is. to tackle black money. That might have for survival during 1969-71. The same its current avatar, the BJP equates the
used cars sale at 18 per cent on the margin To be fair, Nehru did try to shift the been too drastic, though. thing happened in 2004, when Sonia state with the PMO which is exactly
between purchase and sale price has given surplus labour of agriculture to He was thus way ahead of his time and Gandhi turned the economy into an what the Congress did between
manufacturing but he got the sectoral Indian version of a European welfare 1956-2014. Ambedkar would have been
rise to a number of queries on whether this
should be taxed, the calculation of the levy
allocation completely wrong. He
directed it into heavy industries that
Ambedkar wanted the state — which is fifty times richer and
has fifty times less people.
seriously annoyed. So neither party has
any right to adopt Ambedkar as its
and the transactions to which it can apply. can’t absorb much labour. private sector to take But what’s Rahul Gandhi’s excuse? guiding force.
The Council has gone to great lengths to Not just that. Ambedkar wanted the the lead on industrial His father had no faith in the Left’s Politics, of course, is a different
private sector to take the lead on economic prescriptions. In fact, he was matter. It doesn’t require any intellect,
work out three different rates (5, 12 and 18 industrial investment and most of the investment and most of the first to initiate market reforms. So just the will and ability or cunning to
per cent) for various types or popcorn, state’s investment to be in agriculture. the state’s investment to why has Rahul Gandhi gone back to his wear down the opposition by any and all
packaged and/or unpackaged. Such Nehru did the opposite. mother’s distribution oriented leftist divisive means available. That’s what we
hair-splitting goes on even as a rate So today there are nearly a billion be in agriculture. Nehru economic stance instead of his great are witnessing now, with poor
rationalisation panel is yet to finalise its people dependent on agriculture. They did the opposite grandfather’s investment oriented one? Ambedkar caught in the middle.
work. It betrays an impression that the GST
Council is guided by revenue maximisation.

Robust microfinance, key to financial inclusion


It seems to decide easily on revenue raising
measures (used cars), but is reluctant to let
up on foregoing revenues (health
insurance).
On the Safari Retreats case too, the A dedicated funding facility and providing MFIs some scope for diversification will help expand market outreach
Council has shown remarkable alacrity in
two assumptions: (i) 60 per cent of with doorstep services being provided at
trying to stall the apex court ruling simply Alok Misra income as consumption; and (ii) 5/4 23.5-24 per cent per annum on reducing
because of the construction sector revenues person household size in rural/urban balance.
to be had. This is even as it has sought time
T
he link between access to finance areas respectively, we find that nearly Of the four components of pricing,
for deliberations on a host of other issues. and economic development has 80-90 per cent people in rural areas and REs have little or no control on three
The issue here is whether construction been repeatedly brought out 70 per cent in urban areas are covered by factors — cost of funds, transaction cost
through field research as well as macro microfinance income definition. If these and risk cost. There’s a perception that
inputs are eligible for input tax credit. The studies. It is also well-acknowledged numbers are compared to the current MFIs make huge profits, but facts
Odisha High Court in 2018 had ruled that that mere growth is not enough; it needs market outreach of microfinance, the indicate otherwise. An analysis of the
ITC can be availed if the developer rents out to be broad based. For the last nearly enormity of future agenda becomes top 15 NBFC-MFIs over the last
his facility, since he is providing a service. three decades, formal (RBI regulated) evident. eight-and-a-half years shows that the
microfinance has been making this weighted average RoA was a mere 2.2 per
The SC upheld this interpretation. But the possible. FUNDING FROM BANKS CREDIT. Delivering to the doorstep cent. Additionally, on a ₹40,000 loan
Council has decided to moot an amendment, As of September 2024, microfinance While banks and SFBs (small finance repayable monthly over two years, the
with retrospective effect, to Section 17(5) credit services reached 8.1 crore banks) have deposits as their core formula, wherein clients find the difference in per month EMI of a loan at
(d) to clarify, in effect, that ITC can be low-income clients in 722 districts funding source, NBFC-MFIs and NBFCs services beneficial, and REs (regulated 24 per cent and other at 20 per cent is
including 108 aspirational districts with rely on borrowings from banks and entities) also find the business viable. less than ₹50. Comparison with other
claimed only if the contractor concerned credit outstanding of nearly ₹4 lakh capital market. Experience shows that However, the sector frequently faces lending rates to a similar segment shows
uses it for constructing another building. crore — NRLM (National Rural despite the long track record of the disruptions at the local level, such as that microfinance rates are the lowest.
This rules out ITC on construction in most Livelihood Mission) is in addition to sector, the funding from banks dries up inciting borrowers not to repay, placing Thus, while REs should have a robust
cases. In sum, the Council must not lose this. The development role of fast in case the sector goes through restrictions on microfinance operations pricing policy, exclusive focus on
sight of what GST was initially conceived to microfinance is evidenced by a study temporary stress periods. For example, like group meetings, etc.; the last one headline rate and ignoring other factors
conducted by NCAER in 2022, which at present, due to increase in year has seen many such incidents. will make the sector unviable.
be — a good and simple tax. showed that microfinance contributes delinquency, debt funding to MFIN These acts vitiate credit discipline, and While there are other challenges
to 2.03 per cent of India’s GDP and NBFC-MFI members shrunk to ₹13,508 the sector needs the support of the State requiring policy action like a suitable
sustains 13 million jobs. crore in the second quarter of FY 24-25 to ensure that external inciters are guarantee fund, allowing MFIs some
Despite this impressive reach, the as compared with ₹22,736 crore in the nipped in the bud. scope for diversification and equity
POCKET RAVIKANTH enormity of the future agenda looms corresponding year-ago period. The All REs active in microfinance provide support for small MFIs will be in order.
large. Microfinance by regulation is inability of MFIs to give fresh loans can doorstep service — though But the future actionables are not a
mandated to cover clients below annual trigger default as borrowers see no microfinance operations have become one-way street; the RBI-regulated
household income up to ₹3 lakh. An incentive to repay. A sector which is digital, the nature of clients is such that entities and MFIN, as self-regulatory
estimate for the size of this segment can playing a humongous role in reaching they are more comfortable with a mix of organisation, also have a role to address
be deduced from the Household credit services to the last mile needs a physical and digital. This necessitates a policy concerns on over-lending and fair
Consumption Expenditure Survey dedicated funding facility which adopts large field force and consequent practices.
(HCES) 2022-23 by making a few a holistic cost-benefit approach over operational cost. Notably, Indian
assumptions. While the survey captured short term risk aversion. microfinance is globally the most The writer is CEO and Director, Microfinance Industry
the per capita expenditure, if we make Microfinance operates on a win-win efficient in terms of cost and services, Network

LETTERS TO EDITOR Send your letters by email to bleditor@[Link] or by post to ‘Letters to the Editor’, The Hindu Business Line, Kasturi Buildings, 859-860, Anna Salai, Chennai 600002.

Capital for banks undermine the spirit of robust credit cautions about risks to growth. Falling rupee rate with not only the dollar but also
The BofA chief’s call for a major monitoring. For instance, the RBI is Notably, the Finance Ministry has The rupee has breached the other global currencies.
regulatory overhaul, advocating working to enhance credit oversight emphasised adopting a ‘fair degree psychological 85-to-the-dollar mark M Jeyaram
relaxation in capital requirements for by mandating banks to maintain of flexibility in conducting its fiscal and slid to 85.2 last week, which is Sholavandan, TN
banks, is surprising. This suggestion capital against LGD (loss given policy,’ keeping in mind the gloomier more about strengthening of the US
comes amidst the backdrop of default) and ECL (expected credit global situation. But pegging the dollar than a weakening of the Indian ID on tobacco products
several bank failures in the US, loss), addressing inherent credit fiscal deficit below 4.5 per cent for rupee. With the US president-elect That the GST Council has approved a
highlighting the inadequacies in risks from unforeseen FY26 could be wishful thinking, even Donald Trump's threat to effect unique identification mark on a
regulatory oversight. The notion of circumstances. In this context, the as the fiscal deficit for FY25 is across-the-board import tariffs, cigarette or gutkha pouch to check
“too big to fail” has led to a BofA chief’s argument for relaxed currently pegged at 4.9 per cent. especially on goods from China, and indirect tax evasion ( December 23)
lackadaisical approach by US capital requirements appears Reasonably speaking, the rationale mass deportations of illegal is welcome. Huge tax is levied on
regulators, which contributed to the short-sighted. Any future bank behind the government being too immigrants, the dollar is tobacco-based products to
2008 credit crisis and subsequent failures in the US could trigger 'optimistic' on this count is strengthening against global discourage people from spending
bank collapses, including the Silicon cascading effects on global banking perplexing ? Mind you, the RBI had currencies. In this context, the RBI money on them. Another reason, of
Valley Bank failure caused by an systems, as evidenced by past crises. earlier scaled down the GDP growth should refrain from using interest course, is that the demand for these
asset-liability mismatch. Srinivasan Velamur rate to around 6.5 per cent for FY25, rates as a tool to defend the rupee products is inelastic yielding more
Such incidents underscore the Chennai amid the harsh ground realities as while keeping the repo rate low or revenue to the government kitty.
pressing need for stringent obtaining in the Indian economy. So left unchanged based on the Illicit trade has necessitated the need
regulatory controls. At a time when Fiscal deficit target the need of the hour is for the trajectory of consumer price index for a unique identification mark to
banks globally are focusing on This refers to ‘Finmin likely to peg powers that be to get ‘real’ . inflation. It should be noted that check “sin tax” evasion.
tightening credit norms, the fiscal deficit below 4.5 per cent for SK Gupta India’s trade competitiveness S Ramakrishnasayee
proposed relaxation could FY26’ (December 23) even as it New Delhi depends on the rupee’s exchange Chennai

Published by Nirmala Lakshman and Printed by Praveen Someshwar at HT Media Ltd. Plot No.8, Udyog Vihar, Greater Noida Distt. Gautam Budh Nagar, U.P.201306, on behalf of THG PUBLISHING PVT. LTD. Chennai-600002. Editor: Raghuvir Srinivasan (Editor responsible for selection of news under the PRP Act). ISSN 0971 - 7528

CM
YK . . . . . . . . ND-NDE
think . bl . 7
DELHI

businessline.
TUESDAY - DECEMBER 24 - 2024

US’ spending relief


Few takers for Trump’s measures to cut deficit
Signals from the banking sector
The recent growth slowdown can be partially explained by sharp dip in first half credit growth
Sridhar Krishnaswami
MACROSCAN. sector (especially lending to finance

N
early everyone had a housing investments and vehicle
sense of relief when purchases) was low, banks increased
President Joe Biden their focus on such lending.
signed the Continuing CP CHANDRASHEKHAR, JAYATI GHOSH
Resolution on federal spending RETAIL WORRIES

T
for the next three months failing he sense in business circles, More recently however, there have been
which the government would that demand is weak and indications that retail loans are also
have shut down during growth is slowing down, was vulnerable to default, because the
Christmas time. confirmed when GDP universe of borrowers has been enlarged
But what law makers have figures for the second far too much, bringing in weaker or
done is merely kicked the can to quarter (July-September) of financial “subprime” borrowers. Banks that had
the next showdown in March and DONALD TRUMP. Hard choices year 2024-25 showed growth at 5.4 per learnt their lesson at the time of the
to the incoming Republican ahead REUTERS cent. This was well below forecasts of infrastructural lending crisis and cannot
administration, a scenario that annual GDP growth in the 7 per cent go through another round of large scale
the President elect Donald J taxes and immigration. range, and the 8.1 per cent recorded in recapitalisation, seem to be holding
Trump wished to avoid. In the present context Trump the corresponding period of the back. This seems to explain the
Which is why he was pushing has made it clear that previous year. Following that, several generalised retreat from proactive
for raising the debt limit, an idea Republicans opposed to his idea international and domestic institutions lending, leading to the deceleration in
that fell by the wayside by as will have to be taken care of. have revised downwards their credit growth and the softening of
many as 38 Republican members “Republican obstructionists projections for the full financial year. demand. The problem is that the
in the House of Representatives. have to be done away with”, he Manufacturing in particular has feedback effects of this process worsen
Trump has for long said on his social media post. performed poorly, with annualised credit growth. As growth slows, so does
maintained that the federal With primaries for the 2026 growth of 2.2 per cent in the second investment. The absence of demand also
deficit is far too much and that it mid terms already in the way, quarter of 2024-25, as compared with reduces the appetite for borrowing. That
ought to be addressed instead of Trump and his allies are sure to 14.3 per cent in the corresponding leads to further slowing of credit
just pushing it along on a make the going difficult for months of the previous year. The index growth.
three-month period by way of uncomfortable Republicans and of industrial production rose There are two issues these
Continuing Resolutions. Democrats. year-on-year by 4 per cent during April developments raise. The first relates to
The Grand Old Party is acutely to October this year, as compared with 7 the factor that can replace credit as a
TARIFF MEASURES aware of the fact that they only per cent in the previous year. driver of demand and growth. Prior to
Trump’s way of addressing the have razor thin majorities in the the embrace of fiscal conservatism,
huge deficit is by levying hefty House of Representatives and DEMAND DIP proactive state spending played this
tariffs, an idea that is not so Senate and it does not take much By all accounts, the deceleration of role, making up for the slack in private
appealing to some legislators as to lose their hold, especially in growth is on account of tepid demand. demand. That now seems to be off the
well as to economists who fear the House. Given the central government’s claims table for this government.
that it would be consumers who Wealthy pro-Trump money that it has been hiking spending, India’s exports are not doing well at
will have to bear the brunt. bags will be prepared to pump especially its capital expenditure, and all, so there is little by way of an
And the nation’s kitty would funds into close races or making the injection of demand into the system “external stimulus” to growth. Taxing
only be leaner if Trump’s primaries difficult for those in because of spending related to income and wealth of the super-rich to
proposed tax cuts are factored in. the Grand Old Party opposing consecutive elections, this slowdown is increase public spending can provide an
It is a well known fact that the President. And some indeed puzzling. alternative, but there is even less
Trump enjoys getting into the Democrats in “close-win” The central government’s claims appetite for that. The structural
middle of a political fight; upping districts would also be targeted. ignore the fact that much of enhanced problems that underlay the stagnation
the ante by threats and insults The notion of a looming central spending within an overall of the late-1960s and 1970s seem to be
through the social media are all confrontation is neither only conservative fiscal framework comes at asserting themselves. A revival of
part of the game. with Continuing Resolutions nor the expense of the State governments, growth even in the medium term seems
In the present context that he confined to House Republicans. which are being starved of resources to uncertain.
was pushed into the limelight meet their own development The second issue relates to how the
from the outside by a super SENATE CONFIRMATIONS responsibilities to boost the Centre’s banking system is going to adjust if it
wealthy individual — Elon Musk The President elect is reminding receipts. Overall expenditure at Central But the problem appears to be more on banks to lend and earn the spread cannot sustain its lending boom, even
— should not come as a big his own party in the Senate on and State levels together is by no means generalized. The shares of major sectors they need to continue in business. With while capital flows in from abroad and
surprise. But in the end it was a confirmations, especially the buoyant. in bank credit outstanding did not the spike in such financial flows in swells its deposit base. A partial
tame show even if Trump’s contentious ones. Trump has Besides the government’s register much change in September 2024 recent years the pressure has only resolution of this problem seems to
supporters made it look as already indicated that he is not exaggerated claims about its proactive compared with a year ago (Chart 3). The increased. come from the retreat of foreign
though the President elect had about to back down on his fiscal policy, a substantial part of the deceleration in credit growth seems to Early in the process, that pressure led investors from hugely overvalued
“won” this duel of sorts. Defence Secretary designate, explanation for the growth slowdown have occurred across the board. to substantially enhanced lending to the financial markets. A retreat hastened by
The fact remains that Pete Hegseth in spite of earlier seems to lie in the deceleration of credit Growth in credit, demand and output retail sector and to infrastructure. The interest rate adjustments in the
Republicans, Democrats and indications of having a re-think financed spending. are of course all mutually related. But latter in fact attracted substantially developed countries.
Trump know that government with Governor Ron DeSantis of As Chart 1 shows, non-food bank ever since there has been a step up in enhanced lending. But with many The resulting decline in the injection
shutdown is not a winner. Florida. credit growth in the period foreign financial flows into Indian projects failing to deliver on their of liquidity into the system would
But there is a larger agenda And many Senators have April-September 2024 (at 4.2 per cent) markets, the banking system has been promise, defaults on loans to these reduce the pressure to increase lending
and message than a fight over tough questions ahead for other was substantially below the 10.8 per cent awash with liquidity. That put pressure sectors rose. When the magnitude of by expanding into riskier areas. But
raising debt relief or postponing Cabinet nominees like Kash registered in the corresponding months those defaults could not be concealed retreat of foreign investors is leading to
the measure to 2027 or 2029. Patel for Federal Bureau of of 2023. The deceleration of and were revealed in the ratio of a sharp downturn in financial markets.
Trump may have surprised
some by getting involved in a
Investigation (FBI); Tulsi
Gabbard for National CREDIT GROWTH SLOWS
credit growth was non-performing loans, banks saddled
with losses due to provisioning had to be
Given the exposure of the liberalised
banking system to players in financial
process with Congress even Intelligence Agency and Robert The deceleration of credit growth was particularly sharp in recapitalised by the government or had markets, the downturn is not all good
before being in office; but he is Kennedy Jr. for Health and particularly sharp in commercial real commercial real estate to recapitalise themselves. news for the banks. It could lead to
clearly signalling to members of Human Services. estate and personal housing, where debt This led to a significant withdrawal of defaults by other players. Uncertainty
Congress, Republicans has played a major role in fuelling and personal housing, credit to the corporate sector to finance prevails here as well.
especially, of his determination The writer is a senior journalist who has spending and demand. The other major where debt has played a infrastructure projects. But the pressure All in all, there seem to be “interesting
to confront legislators in their reported from Washington DC on North area where credit has decelerated has to keep credit moving did not abate. times” ahead for an economy that is still
turf on issues like spending, America and United Nations been in vehicle loans, where too demand major role in fuelling Since at that time the ratio of being presented as that of the world’s
has been driven by borrowing (Chart 2). spending and demand non-performing loans in the retail fastest growing nation.

thehindu businessline.
TWENTY YEARS AGO TODAY.
December 24, 2004
Biden team to probe Chinese chips, as Trump plans tariffs
Concern rises within Govt over default on patents deadline Bloomberg airplanes, medical devices and the expressed its desire to dominate the any decision up to Trump’s
With only a few days to go for the patents deadline to lapse, the Government telecommunications industry. global chip market and is unfairly administration, which also used the
has expressed serious apprehensions on the fallout of any default in its

U
S President Joe Biden’s The move tees up potential tariffs on subsidizing the industry, but the same trade powers to enact
commitment to introduce a product patent regime by January 1, 2005. The administration is launching an a sector that US officials say may pose a investigation is necessary to take legal wide-ranging levies on imports from
Ministry of Commerce and Industry, which is piloting the Patents (Third investigation that will offer national security risk if too heavily action. China. Trump said he will nominate
Amendment) Bill, has said besides raising the question mark over the country’s President-elect Donald Trump a choice concentrated in Chinese control. Called a Section 301 investigation Jamieson Greer for trade
credibility in the international arena, there could be “serious legal implications” about whether to enact new tariffs on “We need resilient supply chains for for the law that authorizes it, the US representative, replacing current
if the laws are not made WTO compliant within the deadline. Chinese-made semiconductor chips. these chips, because we saw what trade representative would first representative Katherine Tai.
The White House announced happened during Covid when we determine whether China’s actions Biden has moved to bolster the US
‘Evolve code of conduct for issuing credit cards’ Monday it would initiate the inquiry needed a chip but we can’t have it,” have been “unreasonable” or semiconductor industry, including
A code of conduct is on cards for banks issuing credit cards. The RBI has asked into so-called foundational chips — Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo “discriminatory” and burden US with a bipartisan subsidy bill. That has
the Indian Banks’ Association (IBA) to evolve a code of conduct to be adopted also known as legacy or mature-node told reporters Sunday. Relying on commerce. If so, the future included steps to limit the export of
voluntarily by banks. This follows a meeting on Friday between the RBI and semiconductors — made in China. overseas suppliers snarled production administration could impose advanced technology to China.
banks issuing credit cards. While not as advanced as the chips lines and drove up costs of household retaliatory tariffs, restrict imports — or US officials worry that China can
driving artificial intelligence, the older goods, she said. recommend further action for the flood, and corner, the market with
Cabinet defers decision on pension regulatory body technology is ubiquitous across a wide Raimondo and other US officials president and Congress. older, widely available types of chips
The Cabinet today deferred its decision on setting up a full-fledged Pension range of applications including autos, briefing reporters said China has The probe will take months, leaving and tighten its grip on the sector.
Fund Regulatory and Development Authority (PFRDA) as it could not reach a
consensus on the issue.

BL TWO-WAY CROSSWORD 2595 EASY NOT SO EASY


ACROSS DOWN ACROSS DOWN
01. To furnish (6) 01. Means to further 01. Furnish one in a way that's lissome (6) 01. Use it as means to get across when making gradual
04. Afternoon drinking-vessel (6) progress (8-5) 04. Drink from it with undue fuss as to storm-centre (6) progress (8-5)
09. Mental feeling (7) 02. Chief magistrate in 09. Feeling the East must join the movement (7) 02. College head in favour of outsize replacement of
10. The heath genus (5) Scotland (7) 10. Acre one planted out for Heath (5) VAT centre (7)
11. A kitty (4) 03. Wild animal's 11. One may dive into a game like snooker (4) 03. Hiding-place where one is involved in no end of a lark (4)
12. Voided from the mouth (4) retreat (4) 12. Showed one's contempt at a large drop of rain (4) 05. Vote in the endlessly rich, with startling effect (8)
13. Female sheep (3) 05. Galvanic (8) 13. She goes sheepishly to and fro (3) 06. Church that is holding first of masses with sound of
15. Accepted (4) 06. Sound the hour 15. Graft was successful, and one accepted it (4) bell (5)
16. Metal (4) (clock) (5) 16. It comes from Suez in crate that's metal (4) 07. Present cause of conflict? No: the reverse is hoped
19. Sorrowful (3) 07. Propitiatory gift (5-8) 19. Wasn't happy with S Africa at end of apartheid (3) for (5-8)
21. Unemployment hand-out (4) 08. Takes small cuts (5) 21. Hand-out for the elderly and confused at end of queue (4) 08. Bargains for a small Scotch on board ship (5)
22. On one occasion (4) 14. Excuses, 22. As soon as unit can be fitted round top of cooker (4) 14. Has done in the wrong NCOs, but turns a blind eye
24. The Hunter overlooks (8) 24. Hunter gets the gold, and no one can return it (5) to it (8)
(constellation) (5) 17. To hide (7) 25. Are out of zebra, maize being put out as it runs in Africa (7) 17. At one time State took it in to keep it quiet (7)
25. African river (7) 18. Fit building glass (5) 26. Silent way to join the forces (6) 18. Put the windows in at end of Spring and take it easy (5)
26. Join up (6) 20. Square-bashing (5) 27. Peacekeepers take a wooden shoe to remove the 20. Stout cotton cloth may be seen on the parade-ground (5)
27. Remove obstruction (6) 23. Portent, sign (4) obstruction (6) 23. People ring ahead for it as a portent (4)

SOLUTION: BL TWO-WAY CROSSWORD 2594


ACROSS 7. Takes good care 8. Predisposed 12. Resume 14. Reaper 16. Satire 18. Peered 19. Common sense 23. Double meaning
DOWN 1. Carp 2. Here 3. Ignite 4. Copper 5. Aces 6. Trod 9. Risotto 10. Experts 11. Grid 12. Rash 13. Mar 15. Eye 17. Eloped 18. Pester 19. Cook 20. Mobs 21. Nine 22. Etna
CM
YK ... . . . . . . ND-NDE
>
OPINION 9
STAY INFORMED THROUGH THE DAY @ [Link]

VOLUME XXXI NUMBER 214 ILLUSTRATION: BINAY SINHA


5 per cent depreciation of the rupee adds 0.35 percent-
NEW DELHI | TUESDAY, 24 DECEMBER 2024 age points to headline consumer price index (CPI) infla-
tion. However, with inflation expectations anchored,

Difficult choices
second-round effects are unlikely.
Currency depreciation remains a risk:
Merchandise exports are likely to face headwinds from
Slow growth complicates Budget mathematics a slowing global economy, but a strong services trade
surplus, healthy remittances, and stable oil prices

L
ast week, the Union Ministry of Finance released its “Mid-Year Review of should keep the current account deficit manageable
Trends in Government Receipts and Expenditure”. On the surface, this at around 1.5 per cent of GDP. However, a hawkish Fed
document made for unremarkable reading. The Ministry pointed out that
revenue receipts in the first half of the year, at almost 52 per cent of Budget
Estimates, were above the five-year rolling average; and the fiscal deficit, as a per-
centage of gross domestic product or GDP, was below the norm for the first half of
Boosting growth, and global policy uncertainty are likely to keep foreign
capital flows under pressure.
What does this macro backdrop mean for pol-
icy? First, below-trend growth argues for activating

balancing stability
countercyclical policies to stabilise domestic demand,
the year. This might give the sense that India’s macroeconomic position is quite but macrofinancial stability warrants that we adopt the
comfortable as the season for preparing the Union Budget gets underway. Indeed, appropriate policy mix.
the document recommits the government to the glide path of fiscal consolidation Second, a credible path towards fiscal consolidation
and does not express any particular concerns. will send a reassuring signal to investors. With plans
It would not be entirely true to get a sense of comfort from the Mid-Year
In 2025, macro policies will need to support domestic demand, afoot to move from deficit- to debt-targeting starting
Review, however. Counterintuitively, this document reveals areas of considerable but without compromising on macrofinancial stability risks from FY27, policymakers should communicate that
this will still mean sticking to fiscal discipline. At the
weakness, which will worry North Block. Most of these areas are connected to

T
he year 2024 can be characterised as a “strong defaults have risen for credit card and personal loans. same time, with private capital expenditure unlikely
the unexpected underperformance in growth exhibited by the Indian economy start, weaker finish” for India’s economy. It start- As delinquencies tick up, banks are likely to become to increase in the near term, public capex must be
last quarter. Together with low spending, partly because of the elections in the ed with Goldilocks-like settings, with real gross more risk averse, moderating demand for credit-driven maintained while addressing state capacity constraints
first quarter this financial year, this has meant that real growth has come in at domestic product (GDP) growth closer to 8 per cent small-ticket consumer goods. In the case of microfi- to enable faster execution.
only 6 per cent in the first half. Given that nominal growth, as provided for in and gradually easing inflation. In the last few months, nance, this clampdown means borrowers will no longer Third, the RBI should finetune its currency policy.
the Union Budget, was supposed to be 10.5 per cent and instead has come in however, policy tradeoffs have worsened, due to a sharp- be able to roll over multiple loans. Overall, credit con- So far, the RBI has heavily intervened to cap rupee
more than a percentage point lower at 8.9 per cent in the first half, the Budget er-than-expected slump in GDP growth, higher food ditions are tight, and the household credit cycle is likely depreciation. However, this is tightening banking
mathematics for next year has developed complications. inflation, and currency depreciation pressures. As we to weigh on consumption demand in 2025. liquidity and is counterproductive when the trade
turn the page, what does 2025 hold in store? India also faces a threat from China’s overcapacity. deficit is widening. We believe the RBI should allow
This is revealed in the data in the Mid-Year Report. The fact that revenue
The global backdrop appears challenging: In response to Western tariffs, China will likely redirect the rupee to weaken somewhat, as this can act as an
receipts were above the five-year rolling average does not reveal everything, given Uncertainty remains high due to Trump 2.0 policies. exports into newer markets, including India. Already, automatic stabiliser to cool imports. While this could
that the past five years include the extraordinary years of the pandemic. The gov- We expect President-elect Donald Trump to strike fast India’s economic challenge from imports from China lead to some imported inflation, the alternative is
ernment’s capital expenditure, which supports growth, has been lower in the first and hard on imposing tariffs, leading to a pickup in US spans low-tech (low-priced consumer goods, metals even weaker growth.
half than in comparable years. This may flatter the overall deficit numbers — but inflation and just one Fed cut, in March, followed by a and chemicals), intermediate and high-tech (specifically Fourth, many believe rate cuts will exacerbate cur-
it also reveals the dilemma facing the government. If it is to push growth up, it can pause for the remainder of 2025. China is likely to green-tech) products. This is having several economic rency weakness. However, India largely attracts growth
take the risk of spending more. But the lower numbers for the fiscal deficit in the announce more fiscal stimulus, but this implications, including a worsening capital, and without signs of growth stability, pressure
first half of the year, based on the Budget Estimates for the current year, might not is unlikely to drive a sustainable recov- trade imbalance, pressure on firms’ on the external sector can continue. The balanced
ery, given the economy is not in a normal profit margins and lower domestic response to the tradeoff between sub-trend growth and
fully reflect the actual nominal GDP against which the final fiscal deficit for the
downcycle. These factors could slow production. An uncertain global macrofinancial risks is lowering policy rates from their
year is calculated. Thus, there is a real risk that even returning to earlier predicted global GDP growth to 2.9 per cent year- environment, softer domestic current restrictive zone towards more neutral settings.
paths for spending will, in fact, wind up causing the government to burn through on-year in 2025, down from 3.2 per cent demand, higher credit costs and ris- Also, the RBI should be more proactive on liquidity
the deficit targets. in 2024. For India, this implies reduced ing imports from China are likely to injection. With the banking system in a liquidity deficit,
There are thus no easy choices facing the government. There will be a very dependence on exports as a growth weigh on private capex. policy transmission would be impaired otherwise.
real temptation to try and develop optimistic assumptions about growth in the engine and increased reliance on There are some positive offsets. Fifth, the implementation of new regulatory
last quarter of the year in order to make the Budget mathematics a bit easier. But domestic demand. Rural demand is expected to benefit guidelines, such as the draft liquidity coverage ratio
that would be a mistake. The current administration has made a point of using Cycling down on growth: Many from robust monsoons, the govern- norms, should be more gradual. With credit growth
believe the surprise slump in GDP SONAL VARMA ment is likely to fast-track capital moderating, macroprudential policies should not
only rational and defensible extrapolations for growth and revenue, and has
growth to 5.4 per cent in Q2 FY25 was expenditure plans, services exports be procyclical.
been rewarded by the markets for this restraint. The macroeconomic stability a one-off, and the economy will bounce back to 6.5- are increasing, and India could also gain from trade Sixth, from a medium-term perspective, supply
provided by this hard-earned reputation must not be put at risk by overoptimistic 7.0 per cent over coming quarters, supported by high- diversion. Overall, however, we believe India’s economy chain relocation will continue under Trump 2.0, and
projections. In the end, the government will have to choose between accepting er government spending and a rural recovery. This has entered a cyclical growth slowdown. We expect if the US decides to clamp down on trade diversion
slightly lower growth (and revenue and spending) and delaying fiscal targets. If, looks difficult. GDP growth to decelerate to 5.8 per cent y-o-y in 2025, via third countries, such as Vietnam and Mexico, this
in the end, the year surprises on the upside in terms of growth, that will be all to India’s strong post-pandemic rebound was driven down from 6.5 per cent in 2024, with sub-6 per cent could be another opportunity for India. At the same
the good. But, based on the data so far, the government will have to make some by a mix of pent-up demand, a surge in retail credit, readings likely in the coming quarters. time, India needs to gradually lower its dependence
hard choices in the Budget. an aggressive focus on public capital expenditure, Inflation is less of a challenge: The global and on imported intermediate goods and increase its
and strong exports performance. However, several domestic backdrop means less demand-side or com- domestic value addition by developing a local supply
of these factors are now reversing. modities-driven inflation. Food price inflation should chain ecosystem.
Urban consumption is likely to moderate as post- moderate, due to bumper crop output, while a negative The road ahead may be turbulent, but smooth
Missing the trees pandemic pent-up demand fades, monetary policy
remains tight, and nominal income growth slows. The
output gap and moderating wage growth should ensure
benign core inflation. The main risks to inflation stem
seas never made skilled sailors.

ISFR disguises gaps in forest cover Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) macroprudential tight- from currency depreciation and unforeseen weather- The author is chief economist (India and Asia ex-Japan)
ening has sharply contracted credit growth, and loan related food price spikes. The RBI estimates that every at Nomura

T
he big picture in the biennial India State of Forest Report (ISFR), released
a year late, suggests that the country’s forest cover is in good shape.
According to the report, India’s forest and tree cover has reached 25 per
cent of the country’s geographical landmass. The report also shows an
increase in forest cover by 156 square km in the country over 2021. Union Minister
for Environment Bhupender Yadav emphasises that India has augmented its car-
Being human in the age of AI
A
rtificial intelligence (AI) is rapidly becoming does not have the conscience of a human being. and AI technologies must be regulated effectively
bon sink to 2.29 billion tonnes over 2005 levels. This is well ahead of India’s Paris independent of human direction, moving from Therefore, “conscious capitalism” evangelists struggle before it is too late, with action along three tracks.
Agreement commitments of creating an additional carbon sink of 2.5 billion independence in search of information to inde- to make an adequate impact on corporate behaviour, 1. Sincere cooperation with regulation. CEOs and
tonnes by 2030. A more granular look at the report suggests that there are multiple pendence in decision-making. ChatGPT, which even in companies led by compassionate CEOs. investors in large business corporations — in defence,
problems that should dim some of the optimism here. emerged only two years ago, is a chat platform easy to Without human feelings and consciousness, AI, finance, technology, health care, and other industries
First, though 25 per cent forest cover sounds impressive, the fact is that this use, capable of carrying on conversations and assisting like any technology, is an ethics-free enterprise. — which have large societal impacts, pretend they
still falls short of what was prescribed by the National Forest Policy of 1988 — 33 with queries, superseding the search capabilities of Allowing selfish business corporations to own and care for the public good. In practice, they promote
Google. More powerful “AI agents” are emerging in propagate powerful technologies like AI, whose the narrow interests of their shareholders, which is
per cent for optimum ecological stability. But the authenticity of this coverage various fields — medicine, finance, and warfare — potential impacts are not fully grasped, is not a good their self-serving, fiduciary responsibility. They bring
remains open to doubt because of the flexible definition of “forest”, an age-old agents that do not need to interact with human beings. idea. Techno-enthusiasts dismiss resisters of new money power, along with their lawyers and experts
issue that environmentalists have raised time and again. The Forest Survey of They sense their environment through various inputs technologies as “anti-progress” Luddites. Ultimately, they pay, into negotiations where they overpower
India defines forest as land covering at least one hectare and with a tree cover (eg text, images, sensors), analyse the information, new technologies have always turned out beneficial, the voices of civil society. They must learn to listen
density of 10 per cent. This enables the ISFR, which started in 1987, to include and make decisions based on their objectives. Such they say. They ignore the decades it takes societies to other points of view and to cooperate and develop
developments raise ethical questions. How do these and economies to adapt. regulations for the good of all citizens.
plantations — orchards, bamboo, and so on — in the definition of forest cover.
AI agents — these virtual human beings — choose Impacts of transitions: Economists’ theories of 2. Institutional innovation. Humanity has pro-
There are two problems associated with such inclusions. One, conservationists their goals? What do they care about? What will life be free trade strip out social realities, say Nobel laureates gressed over millennia with both technological and
point out that plantations lack the deadwood and underground biomass devel- like for real human beings when virtual humans gov- Abhijit Banerjee and Esther Duflo, authors of Good institutional innovations. Electoral democracy is an
opment (leaf mulch and so on) that are also key sources of carbon sequestration. ern their lives? The world may be run more efficiently Economics for Hard Times. They explain the stickiness innovation with a short history so far. Laws to protect
Two, plantations are a hindrance to sustaining biodiversity, which also plays a but will it be a more just and more of socio-economic systems. While the rights of all citizens equally — rich and poor,
critical role in arresting climate change. Including plantations, therefore, is an compassionate world? deregulation of economies, for exam- men and women — are yet evolving. A business cor-
Artificial citizens, business cor- ple, may increase gross domestic poration listed on the stock market is also an insti-
inefficient way of measuring forest cover and it also acts as an alibi for the
porations: This is not the first time product in the long run, it produces tutional innovation. It is a selfish virtual citizen of
massive deforestation. In Arunachal Pradesh, for instance, large swathes of pris- in history when humans have created many winners and losers during tran- society created with enforceable laws. The time has
tine forests are being cut down under the radar to accommodate palm plantations artificial agents who govern their lives. sitions, which can take a generation come to evolve a genuine social enterprise that is
as part of the government’s quest to achieve self-sufficiency in palm oil. Ironically, The capitalist business corporation, or longer. Scientists’ models of climate legally accountable to all stakeholders; moreover,
the ISFR records Arunachal Pradesh as the state with the second-largest green which was given legal form in the 17th change and scientific solutions for primarily to society, not its financial supporters.
cover, Madhya Pradesh being the first. Again, as environmentalist Ravi Chopra century, is an artificial citizen of soci- rapid decarbonisation of the economy 3. Promote corporate statesmanship. The stock market
ety, given the same rights as human exclude disruptions of livelihoods dur- is not an appropriate evaluator of the fundamentals
has pointed out, much of the increase in tree cover has taken place outside des-
citizens to own property, exercise free ing transitions, which will take of an economy or a company. Many young people
ignated forest areas. This apart, being a netted-out figure, the overall expansion speech, and sue other citizens ARUN MAIRA decades. Technological transitions on want to shape a better world. They don’t know how.
of forests and tree cover also disguises the fact that significant losses have been (humans and other corporations). top of liberal economic reforms min- They need better role models. The world needs cor-
recorded in the Northeast (323.7 square km lost), and the Western Ghats and Moreover, the limited-liability corporation is a selfish imising the role of governments are disrupting the porate leaders who demonstrate conviction and
eastern states (58.22 square km), all regions rich in biodiversity. citizen created by law to enable investors to exploit livelihoods of billions of people in poorer countries. courage to consistently apply human and ethical val-
A less specious definition of forest would offer policymakers and ecologists natural and human resources efficiently for profit with Powerful technologies are invariably dual-use: ues in preference over the financial valuations of their
limited liability for the consequences. Corporations Usable for good and harm. Products of the defence, businesses. Management schools and the business
a more authentic picture of India’s forest cover. This is becoming increasingly
complain that environmental and labour regulations finance, and digital technology industries can be used media should showcase their stories as role models,
critical following amendments last year to the Forest Conservation Act, 1980. harm their ease of doing business and profits. Their for the public good; they can also cause widespread rather than stories of self-aggrandising unicorns and
Among those excluded from the purview of the Act are lands within 100 km of concept of “minimum government, maximum gov- social disruption and destroy lives. Institutional capac- billionaires. When I ask my friends in management
India’s border for national-security projects, small roadside amenities, and public ernance” is privatisation of everything, corporations ity for their regulation has not kept up with their education and business media why they do not do
roads leading to a habitation and, bizarrely, zoos, eco-tourism facilities, and and individual citizens competing, and the “invisible development. Potential misuse of nuclear technology this, they say they too are running businesses. They
reconnaissance surveys. This immediately threatens the fragile ecologies of hand of the market” governing everything. was prevented unfairly by those in power, who were must give the market what it wants. They too have
Chief executive officers (CEOs) and board mem- the first to misuse it, and they now control its use by become mere followers of popular demand, bobbing
India’s north and Northeast. Set against India’s growing reliance on coal as an
bers of corporations may be compassionate humans others. The potential of AI to do good as well as harm along like corks on the surface, rather than shapers
engine of economic growth, a more realistic assessment of the country’s carbon individually. Collectively, they have a fiduciary is much more than all technologies invented so far, of waves of change for a better future for all.
sink is an urgent necessity. responsibility under corporate law to serve the inter- according to its inventors. Further development and
ests of investors in the corporation. A corporation proliferation of defence, finance, synthetic biology, The author is chairman, HelpAge International

Indians that make America great


as a whole. The average annual per capita institutions continues to this day. One of several other fields. Dr Gawande’s later
income of an Indian American is $135,000 the most intriguing individuals profiled is book, Being Mortal, is a very sensitive
while for the rest of the country it is about Chandrika Tandon (née Krishnamurthy), portrayal of the challenge of preparing
$56,000; 73 per cent of Indian Americans who overcame family opposition, gender terminally ill patients to accept the
and drawing upon her unmatched net- friends and the larger community. Their are college graduates, while the figure for prejudice, and societal pressures to build a inevitability of death. Both physicians
work in her adopted country, makes genius was more reflective of its old the rest of the country is 30 per cent. successful career in the consultancy stand out for their empathy and
this book a must-read for anyone inter- definition —“90 per cent perspiration It is no surprise that the more business. She managed high-profile humane sensibilities.
ested in the Indian diaspora. The and 10 per cent inspiration”. The profiles numerous amongst the diaspora the mergers and acquisitions before The last section on the Influencers
Introduction has useful information reflect the particularity of experiences author profiles belong to the techie establishing her own firm with a loyal includes profiles of politicians Nikki
about the Indian-American community and differences in attitudes that the category. During the 1960s and 70s, the clientele. And then she called it quits to Haley and Ro Khanna and journalist
and this is followed by chapters divided subjects of the interviews convey in their Indian Institutes of pursue her passion for and author Fareed Zakaria. They are
BOOK REVIEW into three sections, each profiling out- own words. It is their individual Technology in INDIAN GENIUS: The music. She paved the
Meteoric Rise of among the less interesting Indian
standing individuals in the “Techie”, experiences that are more engaging. India, provided Indians in America way for her younger Americans. A profile of presidential
SHYAM SARAN the “Healers” and the “Influencers” cat- They draw upon their experience of a high-quality sister, Indra Nooyi, who hopeful Kamala Harris may have been
Author:
egories, respectively. The concluding highly plural Indian society, its innate technical Meenakshi won acclaim as the first worthwhile, but the author excluded

T
he story of Indians in America is, chapter seeks to identify some of the cosmopolitanism, the proficiency in the education to Ahamed female CEO of the her because she identifies herself as
by any measure, one of outstand- attributes these individuals share and English language, and the traditional middle-class Publisher: multinational Pepsi. black. But I think Ms Harris does not
ing success. Indians take vicarious explore whether they contributed to value placed on education. But they also Indians at nominal HarperCollins Indian Americans in reject her Indian identity.
pride in celebrating a Sundar Pichai their outstanding achievements. acknowledge that their adopted country cost. The graduates Pages: 360 the medical profession One would have preferred a clear
heading Google or a Satya Nadella taking Finally, explore how America provided gave them opportunities unavailable in did not find enough Price: ~567 come out as among the distinction between quotes and the
Microsoft into an AI-driven future. But them with the opportunity to excel India, that it rewarded hard work and opportunities in best. This includes author’s own commentary, and there
Meenakshi Ahamed, herself an Indian away from their home country. merit. Their success is a tribute to the US India to earn a decent salary and, more Siddhartha Mukherjee, who is an could have been more careful editing.
American and an acclaimed author of a The title of the book, Indian Genius, and its ability to attract the best talent and importantly, to advance their skills in their oncologist and has written a bestseller But this is an immensely readable book,
definitive book on India-US relations — may be somewhat misleading because the skills from across the world. Indian respective fields. For several years, nearly on cancer, The Emperor of Maladies. and the conversations the author has
A Matter of Trust has now produced a stories are more about the grit and Americans have made the most of this 40 per cent of all IIT graduates headed to Another acclaimed medical practitioner with her subjects draw out their
pioneering study of the emergence of determination with which the successful open door. The door is not open to the the US, and some of the most successful is Atul Gawande, also a bestselling distinctive personalities and the
this remarkable cohort at the pinnacle of Indian Americans overcame the odds they lesser skilled migrants. Ms Ahamed tells Indian Americans are IIT alumni. Sundar author. His book, Checklist Manifesto, different things that drive them to
American industry, academia, politics encountered in a distant and unfamiliar the story of a cab driver from Punjab in Pichai, Shantanu Narayen (CEO of Adobe) significantly reduced common lapses in become high achievers. There are
and government. Her intimate profiles of country, the passion with which they New York City who had waited 20 years for and Nikesh Arora (CEO Palo Alto complex surgeries by introducing a lessons beyond their experiences.
some of the most successful Indian pursued their chosen calling, and the his green card. Their plight is camouflaged Networks) belong to this category. But the checklist to be used while performing
Americans, based on personal interviews strength they drew from their families and by the impressive figures for the diaspora “brain drain” from the top engineering procedures. The drill has applications in The reviewer is a former foreign secretary
16 NEW DELHI
TUESDAY
DECEMBER 24, 2024

Opinion

{ OUR TAKE }
E S TA B L I S H E D IN 1 9 24
What BR Ambedkar
Making friends means for today’s India
university, that too after 16 years of could stop them from entering col-
The dissonance between
in the Gulf region political equality and
social disparity is the
protests. And it took nearly half a cen- leges or the workplace. And his
tury for governments to begin pre- achievements helped them build a
serving the buildings and places sense of ownership over a country
where India’s first law minister where everyday socioeconomic dis-
Upgrading ties with Kuwait is sound policy lived reality for millions worked. parity often threatens the political
given the extended neighbourhood holds If it seems to some that Babasa- equality enshrined in the Constitu-
of citizens in modern heb’s followers unnecessarily deify tion. The reverence associated with Since the 1990s, political parties have increasingly come to realise the
strategic and economic importance for India India. Resolving it him, it is because of their lingering the figure of Ambedkar, therefore, is significance of Babasaheb in the lives of many Indians PTI
memory of this unsavoury history. In neither mere adulation nor frenzy.

I
ndia’s decision to upgrade its relations with Kuwait requires sustained a society riven by inequality where And it is erroneous to call the politics most of them perversions of their stitutionalist’s legacy.
to a strategic partnership and Prime Minister political engagement, biased strictures governed not just built around it fuelled just by griev- beloved Babasaheb’s name, every Lost in this melee are uncomforta-
Narendra Modi’s visit over the weekend to the West human beings but also their shadows, ance or worship because aspiration time they’ve asserted their identity. ble questions of political empower-
not rhetoric interventions by Babasaheb in the and the dream of a better life are Let alone Ambedkar, even his stat- ment — how many parties have genu-
Asian country, the first by an Indian premier in more Constitution attempted to baked into it. ues haven’t been spared. In the face of inely senior Dalit leaders? How many

I
than four decades, were timely signals of its importance f someone from the 1960s were level the playing field and The refusal of large such bigotry, is it really surprising if nominate Dalit candidates outside
sitting in the visitor’s gallery of ensure that every citizen’s chunks of society to evolve they’ve rallied around a name that has reserved seats? How many can claim
in the extended neighbourhood. After all, Kuwait is the Lok Sabha over the week- right to political equality from mindsets steeped in assured them dignity in a milieu to grapple with the expansive ideol-
home to one million Indians, one of the largest end, they’d likely have been was matched by a similar caste only bolsters this rever- where neighbours and friends, col- ogy and teachings of the man they
concentrations of citizens in the region, and the sixth- shocked by the phalanx of law- claim to equality on the ence. If young Dalit children leagues and peers appear unable to ostensibly follow? How many have
makers cutting across party and social plane. His ideology of Dhrubo have entered the classroom recognise and rectify casteist atti- worked to undo the stranglehold of
largest crude supplier to India. Kuwait is also the current ideology swearing their allegiance to assertion provided margina- Jyoti through the Constitution, tudes? dominant communities in the admin-
chair of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), with which BR Ambedkar. Just a decade after the lised communities with a they’ve been forced to sit on Since the 1990s, political parties istration and the police, or better
India is negotiating a free trade deal. As one of India’s towering constitutionalist died in weapon to beat back the floor. If Dalit women have increasingly come to realise the implement reservations? How many
1956, his legacy had all but been entrenched dogma; it have cooked mid-day meals, significance of Babasaheb in the lives have helped young marginalised peo-
primary sources of oil and home to more than nine erased from the political mainstream ensured that even as social institu- these have been spurned by upper of many Indians. But instead of genu- ple battle hostility and build a better
million Indians, West Asia is central to India’s foreign — a task accomplished by the collec- tions were slow to evolve and eradi- caste children. If Dalit students have ine engagement, most mainstream life? How many have expressed a
policy concerns. tive contribution of every major politi- cate discrimination, government sat in colleges, they’ve been ridiculed parties have sought to mine the mil- commitment to act against casteism,
cal party at the time. institutions could no longer legally as quota cases by peers, even profes- lions-strong demographic for votes. even when it comes from their own
India’s outreach to West Asian powers has coincided Kept alive through the sacrifice and shield unfair practices. sors. If they’ve been hired to work, This cynical exploitation of the emo- leaders and followers? And how
with a shift by those countries from their long-standing dedication of grassroots followers, the The love that many communities they’ve battled immeasurable bias for tional link between the icon and his many see Babasaheb’s legacy in its
proximity to Pakistan because of an understanding of edifice of Babasaheb Ambedkar’s leg- continue to hold for Babasaheb is basic advancements that their col- followers has crafted a bizarre specta- entirety — as a labour reformer, econ-
acy was built more painstakingly than rooted in this lived reality. His teach- leagues take for granted. cle where one party, which believes in omist, legal scholar, constitutionalist,
the greater benefits of strategic and economic ties with any other major leader of his time. ings taught these communities to take And they’ve been attacked — for orthodox scriptures and teachings and a pioneer whose philosophy of
New Delhi. This outreach comprises both bilateral deals Four decades passed after his death pride in their own cultures when marrying across caste lines, sporting categorically rejected by Babasaheb, a equity propels evolving struggles such
with key countries such as Saudi Arabia and the United before the government saw fit to con- dominant groups — irrespective of a moustache, riding a horse, sitting second party whose stalwarts publicly as those for LGBTQ rights — and not
fer the nation’s highest civilian hon- their political inclinations or ideology cross-legged, playing music or using opposed him, undermined his teach- reduce him to a single community? If
Arab Emirates (UAE), and multilateral engagements our on the man who steered the — either ridiculed them or sought to ringtones with Babasaheb’s name in ings and refused to give him his due, the political battle for Ambedkar
such as the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Republic’s founding document. It efface them. His words gave them it, studying, having social media pro- and a third party whose leader spent appears messy, it is probably because
Corridor. New Delhi has managed to build these ties took a generation, countless attacks courage when they faced bigotry in files, drinking water, wearing their years railing against reservations and performative rhetoric has replaced
by upper castes, the razing of villages the classroom or at the drinking water hair long, shunning manual scaveng- once fired a colleague for repeating genuine engagement.
without upsetting any of the major fault lines that shape and people being burnt to death for a fountain. The Constitution he helped ing, or simply stepping outside the Babasaheb’s vows are all vying to be
relations among various countries in West Asia. state government to add his name to a write ensured that no amount of bias home. They’ve faced volleys of slurs, crowned the true inheritor of the con- The views expressed are personal
Strategic ties between India and Kuwait received a
boost from the finalisation of an agreement on defence
cooperation, which envisages joint exercises, training,
collaboration in the defence industry and supply of
military equipment. Given that the Kuwait Investment
India needs long-term { AHMED AL-SHARAA } SYRIA’S NEW LEADER

P
Authority has already pumped more than $10 billion
into India, the two countries decided to explore new
opportunities in areas such as technology, tourism,
strategic assessments Syria is a country for all and we
health care and food security. They also decided to fast- ational security is all about risk tak- a practice well known to intelligence opera- can coexist together. We will
track negotiations for a bilateral investment treaty.
There was also consensus on enhancing cooperation
in exploration and production of oil and gas,
N ing. This ability determines the state tives worldwide, indicate a lack of operational
of play of a nation’s security at any security during such activities. It could be
given moment in time. India is no argued that the Five Eyes deduced the
absolutely not allow there to be
weapons in the country

A
stranger to national security threats and the so-called evidence from technical intelligence,
petrochemical industries, renewable energy, refining,
and Kuwait’s participation in India’s strategic
myriad challenges it faces require flexible pol- but this still leaves unanswered the question
icy-making. Does this have to manifest in a of how things went out of hand in the first outside State control
written national security strategy? Several place. A deliberate leak to place India in an
petroleum reserve programme. experts have argued that India does indeed awkward position is the most obvious answer.
While India’s relations with Saudi Arabia and the require this. The third vector is intelligence assessment
However, governments thus far have cho- by institutions dealing with national security.
UAE, the main players in West Asia, are better than
ever, it is sound policy to develop equally close ties
with the other Arab States at a time when a lot of
sen not to articulate such a strategy in the The interplay of politics, defence, and eco-
public domain. It is assumed that whatever nomics makes a heady mix for national secu-
actions are taken to meet certain challenges, rity analysts today. The role played by such
are done in the national interest and, there- analysts is crucial in evolving a better under-
The Indus Waters Treaty:
Need to adapt, or perish
Indian interests are closely tied to developments in fore, need not follow any written or publicly standing of the world we live in. One writer, a
the region. The welfare of Indian expatriates and their articulated strategy. National secu- former foreign service officer, raised
remittances are crucial for New Delhi. Futuristic rity, undoubtedly, derives from the question of whether “turf wars”
national interests, and some of the were behind India’s failings to see the ammu and Kashmir (J&K) chief minis- an inconvenience but a violation of Article XII

J
plans for collaboration in energy security and food latter stem from protecting constitu- happenings in the Maldives, Nepal ter Omar Abdullah recently voiced con- (3) and international law. Under these cir-
security will help provide a new direction to the age- tional values and preserving India’s and Bangladesh. Turf has always cerns about the impact of the Indus cumstances, India has a legitimate case for
old ties between India and Kuwait. civilisational ethos. The present-day been an issue amongst agencies Waters Treaty (IWT) on the Union terri- pursuing termination of the IWT as its modi-
challenges to India have become Bhashyam responsible for collecting and analys- tory’s power generation crisis and sought fication has been made impossible due to
much more diverse than these were Kasturi ing intelligence. However, the more compensation from the Union government Pakistan’s antics.
at an earlier time and demand a serious challenge lies in dealing with for the restrictions encoded in the treaty. India has consistently cited the significant

Forest survey misses review of the manner in which the


nation responds to security challen-
ges, both internal and external.
the issue at both the institutional and
individual levels.
The lack of high-quality apex-level intelli-
While India grapples with the internal change in population demographics and the
demands arising out of some of the anti- climate crisis since the IWT was entered into
quated terms of the IWT, Pakistan continues in 1960 as reasons to seek a modification of

the wood for the trees Looking at the major vectors of national gence assessment remains a challenge. This
security in India today, the need for institu- straddles several domains and requires clarity
tions and individuals to think beyond the tac- of thought. Contours of strategic assessments
to ignore the legitimate attempts by India to the treaty. These fundamental changes in cir-
initiate discussions to modify the IWT, pro- cumstances are also legitimate grounds for
vided for under Article XII (3) of the treaty. the termination of the IWT due to the princi-
xpanding green cover in the country should tical is an imperative. This vector is a function are being drawn — for instance, in the domain In August, India issued its fourth notice to ple of rebus sic stantibus (things standing

E normally be heartening, but the true story of


India’s forests lies beyond the marginal growth in
forest and tree cover recorded in the latest edition of the
of the ability to take risks at the tactical level, of technology — and this has led India to move
but whether these translate into strategic ben- forward in signing pacts on critical and emerg-
efits is yet to be seen. For instance, in 2017, ing technologies with the United States and the
just prior to the stand-off at Doklam, India United Kingdom. This is undoubtedly an
chose to obstruct the Chinese with bulldozers important domain, but the traditional areas
Pakistan under Article XII (3), seeking govern- thus) that recognises that fundamental
ment-to-government discussions. These noti- change in circumstances releases a party
ces seem to have been triggered by the World from its treaty commitments.
Bank’s dubious decision in October 2022 to The Indus river system is a lifeline for both
allow parallel proceedings before the Neutral countries, particularly for Pakistan, where
India State of Forest Report. To be sure, as the climate at Batang La. The objective was to prevent the still require more intense work. Technologies Expert and the Court of Arbitration; the cli- agriculture relies heavily on the waters of the
crisis unfolds, reafforestation figures high among People’s Liberation Army from moving for- needed to fight future wars is another area for mate crisis’ impact on the Indus river basin Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab. Any disruption to
mitigation efforts, and, against this backdrop, the 1,445 ward with its road construction. India gained national security development. This is because also has a role to play. the IWT would have devastating
a tactical victory. Subsequently, China simply the lead time needed to develop technologies to India’s notices came after years of consequences, particularly for Paki-
sq km of green cover in India that was added in the last bypassed India and constructed another road be a step ahead of the adversary is significant. frustration over Pakistan’s refusal to stan’s water security and agricul-
two years matters. However, the fact that old-growth, along the Amo Chu river, going further south However, the design and development of engage constructively in the imple- tural output. But India, too, stands to
natural forests continue to degrade while nearly the towards Jampheri. Therefore, the need for weapon systems and technology have to trans- mentation of the IWT. Pakistan, of suffer from continued hostilities
long-term strategic thinking becomes obvi- late to manufacturing. That this is happening course, has repeatedly chosen to over water usage.
entire growth in forest cover is outside recorded forest ous. Of course, the recent resolution of issues slowly but surely is a positive. But the scale and ignore government-to-government India has honoured its commit-
Shravan
areas — likely monoculture plantations and on Depsang and Demchok is to be welcomed, speed of this work will determine India’s negotiations. Its government and ments under the IWT, even during
Yammanur periods of war. However, with Paki-
agroforestry — complicates the picture in the long run. but it does not answer the question of defence preparedness in the future. experts appear to believe that Paki-
whether there is a long-term strategy towards The national security sphere needs to be stan should not engage with India in stan’s bad faith conduct, India may
Consider the Western Ghats, the northeastern states, China with respect to the resolution of the clearly divided between the tactical and strate- these discussions because India can- now feel justified in reconsidering the
and the mangrove forests, which house a chunk of border issue. gic, but beneath these must lie a foundation not unilaterally terminate the IWT. This per- treaty’s viability, as its frustrations are not lim-
India’s old-growth, natural forests, with significant The second vector of this game plan is for strategic long-term assessments. One ception may be unfounded, as India would be ited simply to procedural disagreements; indeed,
intelligence. In the past two decades, there without the other is of no value. Successive within its rights to move this way given Paki- the Kishanganga and Ratle hydroelectric pro-
biodiversity and environmental roles (protecting the have been tremendous advances made in the governments have moved forward aggres- stan’s disregard for its treaty obligations jects are crucial projects for J&K.
coastline and supporting diverse fauna). All of these use of technology for intelligence gathering as sively on several fronts without any strategic under Article XII and continued abuse of the While the legal justifications for India’s
have reported continuing losses. Meanwhile, well as offensive intelligence operations. The backup. This has entailed, in recent times, dip- dispute resolution mechanism under the IWT position are strong, the geopolitical ramifica-
deep penetration of Iran by Israel’s Mossad lomatic aggression by India, even as the insti- to stall crucial hydroelectric projects in J&K, tions of terminating the treaty are complex.
reafforestation efforts have focussed on canopy gains, and the use of pagers to target the top Hezbol- tutional wherewithal to help the cause in the all of which amounts to bad faith conduct Both nations must recognise the importance
with either the 33% forest cover goal set by the National lah leadership in September this year pro- long-term is lacking. This is where apex deci- under international law. of water security in a region already grappling
Forest Policy or the Bonn Challenge of 26 million vided much food for thought. National secu- sion-making bodies like the National Security The principle of pacta sunt servanda (agree- with the climate crisis, population growth,
rity depends a great deal on intelligence, in Council come in. Long-term assessments with ments must be kept) is at the heart of interna- and resource scarcity. The best outcome
hectares of forests by 2030 in mind. Predictably, this has terms of both offensive and defensive capabil- step-by-step policy recommendations are tional law, mandating that treaties must be would be for Pakistan to return to the negoti-
pushed short-termism, with the loss of biodiversity- ity. urgently required today. Of far greater import honoured. However, this principle also ating table and for both countries to update
rich, old-growth forests intended to be offset by fast- The recent leaks by Canada of alleged intel- is the question of implementing such deci- requires States to act in good faith. Pakistan’s the treaty to reflect modern challenges that
ligence activities by Indian agents and the sions. The question of putting in place mecha- mala fide refusal to engage in discussions for have arisen due to the fundamental changes
growing species in monoculture plantations and common employment of criminal networks, nisms for the smooth implementation of deci- the modification of the IWT or adhere to its in the Indus basin.
agroforestry. Thanks to the species favoured in most sions taken at the highest level of government established process for dispute resolution Meanwhile, India’s notices underscore a
reafforestation efforts, there have been reports of THE NATIONAL SECURITY remains open, and the recognition of this constitutes a material breach and is a viola- crucial reality: Treaties are built on mutual
lacunae is perhaps the most important aspect tion of pacta sunt servanda. India could not trust and cooperation. Without these, no legal
destabilising effects such as the decline in local water SPHERE NEEDS TO BE of national security decision-making today. have foreseen at the time of entering into the document — no matter how robust — can
availability and loss of ecologically significant non- CLEARLY DIVIDED INTO This will go a long way in making the tactical IWT without a termination clause that Paki- stand the test of time. What remains to be
forest vegetation that yielded space to the plantations. THE TACTICAL AND THE and strategic domains clear and will provide stan would act deliberately and consistently seen is whether Pakistan will take this oppor-
the means to bridge the gap. That is the way to defeat the raison d’être of Article XII (3). tunity to come to the table or whether it will
The need is to assess reafforestation efforts through STRATEGIC, BUT BENEATH forward for India’s national security appara- States have a right to terminate a treaty continue down a path that could lead to the
the prism of preserving and furthering biodiversity and THESE MUST LIE A tus. even if it does not contain a termination end of one of the world’s most successful
the imprint these have on the climate crisis through the FOUNDATION FOR clause under international law in certain cir- water-sharing treaties.
Bhashyam Kasturi is a former director, cumstances. Pakistan’s repeated refusal to
long-term effects on the environment and the way the LONG-TERM ASSESSMENTS National Security Council Secretariat. engage with India on water-sharing issues, Shravan Yammanur is an advocate-on-record,
hydrological cycle is impacted. The views expressed are personal despite the framework of the IWT, is not just Supreme Court. The views expressed are personal

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14 TUESDAY, 24 DECEMBER 2024
MUMBAI VIEWS [Link]

OUR VIEW MY VIEW | OTHER SPHERE


ALAMY

Too many outcome shapers are


too distant from ground realities
The ivory tower is all too real. It explains a key deficiency in well-intentioned but useless analysis

thing would be to design incentive cussed was real or relevant in the con-
structures to ensure accountability of text of the few hundred crèches that we
the crèche workers. Also, the impor- run in such villages. A few who had been
tance of installing CCTVs in all crèches. quiet till then joined forces with us. The
The economists warmed up to the cen- co-host was happy with the dose of real-
trality of incentive structures and ism injected. Mission accomplished.
CCTVs and agreed among themselves When we were leaving, the sage from
that while they can keep debating the Odisha said to me, “Inn logon ka sach se
data, the wage premium would be the koi vaasata nahin hai.” These people
ANURAG BEHAR key issue, and that private capital must have no relationship with the truth.
is CEO of Azim Premji Foundation. be encouraged to invest. He was echoing the philosopher
A donor working on feminist causes Harry Frankfurt, who in a 1986 essay
intervened with a very lucid description and subsequently in his book On Bull-
of how any such programme must keep shit explores a phenomenon that we can

Cash transfers must not


the agency of women as the centre- politely describe as ‘talking nonsense.’
piece; he did not mention anything The essence that he arrived at was that

M
ost of one wall was a high-tech about children. A well regarded aca- while a liar tries to hide the truth, the
digital screen. The very large demic talked about how caste will have one speaking nonsense has no regard
room was designed for meet- to be accounted for in crèches. There for the truth. This is more dangerous

lead states to fiscal ruin ings that many would join online. The
opposite wall was glass, through which
you had an unobstructed view of 30km
out from the 20th floor office of this
were resounding echoes of agreement
to a comment that digital tools must be
used to empower crèche workers.
With each comment, the distance
than lying because as it spreads, the
very notion of truth is up for grabs.
In that entertaining episode in a
gleaming tower, we had an example of a
multilateral institution, which was from the reality of an Indian village kept particular kind of nonsense—well
co-hosting the meeting along with a growing. Of course, the gleaming intentioned nonsense. Many speakers
A political imperative amid hard times for multitudes could turn into a race to the bottom. sensible organization. The topic: The 25-story tower was from a different sincerely seemed to believe that they
economic empowerment of women in world. The CEO of the co-host organi- were speaking the truth or something
If cash handouts are inevitable, such schemes need to be studied in depth and designed well rural India. There were 40 people in the zation had invited me to this meeting close. But they were untethered from
room and a similar number on the with a very specific mandate: to bring all reality. And that’s because they were in
screen—crystal clear with great audio. such conversations “back to Earth.” the vice grip of three forces.
Quickly, the conversation turned to Before I could say anything, another One, a commitment to abstraction

T
he Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is have become a permanent feature of India’s the ‘care economy.’ It was not clear to invitee of that organization spoke up. and methods of abstraction—from eco-
known for self-restraint and detach- political arena. The second characteristic is eco- me what that meant in rural India, but He spoke in Hindi and said that while he nomics or sociology or from policymak-
many people seemed to be sure. Some- can understand English, he can’t speak ing and the like. Two, self-righteous-
ment in what it publishes. It is thus nomic: most political parties have realized that how, crèches became the focus of the that language well. He started by saying, ness—stoked by ideology or the self-
surprising to find that its annual cash transfers are perhaps the best antidote for discussion. Because there seemed to be “Aap sab yeh kyaa kyaa bol rahen hain.” gratifying notion that they are doing
publication, State Finances: A Study stagnant-to-declining real wages amid perva- a general consensus that crèches could What are all of you saying? Here is a good or know better or both. Finally,
of Budgets, unequivocally criticises sive unemployment, as they help economically serve the nutritional needs of very summary of what he said subsequently distancing; few people in that room had
state governments for their unchecked rise in weak households maintain their routine con- young children, provide more mothers in English. been to an Indian village. They seemed
an opportunity to join the workforce You will get the crèche workers you equally distant from other realities of
expenditure on subsidies and cash transfers sumption. The impact of income levels under and also employ women themselves. will get; there are no “best women” in India, including possibly the slums at
(primarily to farmers, women and youth). The stress has been evident for some time now in The fluent economists debated the the villages to become crèche workers. the foot of that gleaming tower. But all
central bank’s report was constrained to note: weak consumer demand overall. Cash handouts wage premium that would get the best A wage premium is an irrelevant matter appeared steeped in their abstractions.
“States need to contain and rationalise their offer a temporary reprieve, apart from yielding women from the village as crèche work- where many do not have a wage, and The world is increasingly full of well-
subsidy outgoes, so that such spending does not political dividends, as seen in the poll results of ers. Progress on this matter was bogged those who do, earn very little. Private intentioned nonsense. Some arenas of
down since 20 of the people in the capital, digital tools and agency can only work seem particularly inclined to it—
crowd out more productive expenditure.” The Maharashtra, Jharkhand and Madhya Pradesh. meeting seemed to be economists and be talked about in such rooms. He said universities, think-tanks, policy circles,
RBI report comes on the heels of another While the ever-swelling pipeline of cash they got into the thick of what data was more, and I translated whatever he said multilateral agencies, donors. Not all
annual study from non-profit PRS Legislative transfers could lull observers into mistaking available and what should be used. to English, at the end of which I added these, of course, and not everyone in
Research, State of State Finances, which them for universal basic income (UBI) schemes, The two high-profile policymakers my own two bits. Agreeing with this them are so inclined. But they would all
observed that nine states had provided a cumu- there needs to be a formal study on the struc- who were there made elaborate state- sage from Odisha, I endorsed his view do everybody a good turn if they
ments about how the most important that almost nothing that had been dis- cleaved closer to ground realities.
lative outlay of about ₹1 trillion in their budgets tural gaps between the reflexive nature of cash
for 2024-25 for unconditional cash transfers to transfers and a permanent UBI policy frame-
women; however, the final spending at year- work. A key element missing is means-testing
end under this head is expected to shoot past for cash transfers, even though many such
₹1.5 trillion, with many additional states, espe- schemes for women are expected to exclude
cially poll-bound ones, promising similar government employees and/or those paying
schemes outside their budget. Notably, these income tax. However, this eligibility check is [Link] New Delhi, Mumbai, Bengaluru, Kolkata, Chennai, Ahmedabad, Hyderabad, Chandigarh*, Pune* Wednesday, December 24, 2014 Vol.8 No.306 `4.00 in Delhi-NCR/`5.00 outside Delhi-NCR 32 PAGES

cash transfers are agnostic of the political shade not uniform across schemes, which run the risk US economy
INTERNATIONAL:
grows most in a decade >27
POLITICS: Rajya Sabha logjam halts
Narendra Modi’s economic agenda >5

of the state government in power. of large-scale fudging of income levels with the [Link]/
livemint
[Link]/
[Link]
[Link]/
+livemint
[Link]/
livemint/
CORPORATE: Ajay Singh in talks to
buy Maran’s entire SpiceJet stake >22
NATION: India’s birth rate shrinks,
shows study >32

Two defining features stand out in these ever- connivance of officials at the ground level; in SENSEX 27,506.46 æ 195.33

UltraTech to
NIFTY 8,267 æ 57

ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS
DOLLAR `63.29 Æ `0.04 EURO `77.39 æ `0.14 GOLD `26,510 æ `80

QUICK EDIT
OIL $60.56 Æ $0.45

buy two
BJP captures Jharkhand, The next

rising volumes. One, the political imperative of any case, the enrolment of beneficiaries and cement plants
from Jaypee
B Y P. R . S A N J A I &
M ADHURA K ARNIK
····························
sniffs power in J&K
hot spot
T he hottest emerging
economy right now is
the US, which saw its
economy grow by 5% in the
three months ended 30
September, faster than in
It is the mark of an
cash transfers as a tool for electoral gains has distribution of resources has always been a fer-
MUMBAI PTI any quarter since 2003 (it

U ltraTech Cement Ltd has


agreed to buy two cement
SEATS TALLY grew by 6.9% in the same
quarter that year).

educated mind to be able


plants and related power assets JAMMU AND KASHMIR The growth, which
of Jaiprakash Associates Ltd in TOTAL SEATS: 87 comes even as questions
Madhya Pradesh for `5,400 have been raised about the
crore, giving the country’s big- staying power of the BRICs,
gest cement maker the capacity comes on the back of new
BJP CONGRESS NC PDP
to cater to lucrative markets in energy discoveries that

lured all political parties to this instrument; this tile ground for corruption. A second political
the central Indian state and 25 12 15 28 seem to have kindled
neighbouring Uttar Pradesh. manufacturing in a country
As part of the deal, the Aditya JHARKHAND that seemed to have long
Birla Group firm will acquire TOTAL SEATS: 81 given up on making
Jaiprakash Associates’ integrated products within its

to entertain a thought
cement plant with clinker capac- boundaries, a continuing
ity of 2.1 million tonnes per soft money policy by the
annum (mtpa) and cement BJP CONGRESS JMM Federal Reserve, and
42* 06 19

is despite warnings from various quarters about study is also needed before a race-to-the-bot-
grinding capacity of 2.6 mtpa at growing consumer
Bela in Madhya Pradesh. confidence.
UltraTech will also acquire a sec- *(includes five seats of AJSU) The US turnaround is
BJP: Bharatiya Janata Party; NC: National Conference;
ond plant at Sidhi with a clinker PDP: Peoples Democratic Party;
more a result of a happy
capacity of 3.1 mtpa and cement JMM: Jharkhand Mukti Morcha combination of
grinding capacity of 2.3 mtpa. circumstances than
The cement factories have cap- focused policy measures:
tive thermal power plants with a shale gas, a growing

without accepting it.


combined capacity of 180 mega- imperative among

the perils of fiscal profligacy, especially the tom with cash transfers upsets India’s fiscal
watts (MW) of which 25MW is businesses to replace old
situated at Bela and 155MW at machinery (and much of it
Sidhi. is old) and a spurt of
“The assets are located in a entrepreneurial energy,
strategically important region. especially in high tech.
The Satna cluster is an impor- Still, its journey to the edge
tant one for us and an area and back may have some
where we did not have a pres- lessons for India.
ence. The proximity of the plants Winning streak: BJP president Amit Shah at the party’s headquarters in New Delhi after election results were announced on Tuesday.

impact on developmental expenditure. Even equilibrium and adversely affects its global
to key markets, like Uttar
Pradesh central and east (and)
Madhya Pradesh central and
Five takeaways from fell short of its self-professed
Mission 44, but came a close
given the Modi regime a bloody
nose in the first two sessions of
favouring the BJP is still years
away, implying that it would
well short of claiming the mantle
of the leader of the opposition—
east, makes it an important the visible shift in second to the Peoples Demo- the new Parliament by blocking have to rely on a sure-footed the Congress was voted out of
asset,” said O.P. Puranmalka, political momentum in cratic Party (PDP), leaving it in the passage of key legislation, floor management strategy. power in Maharashtra and Hary-
who leads the Aditya Birla an enviable position—either to but outside Parliament, the Modi Second, the terminal decline ana.
Group’s cement business and is favour of the BJP, led end up as the leader of the allure is very much alive and the of the Congress continues. After Its count of states where it is in
the business director of by Modi and Shah opposition or exhibit political politics of this country continues suffering its worst ever rout in power is still an impressive nine,
UltraTech Cement. daring to share power in the to undergo a structural overhaul. the 16th general election—it was

the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party, despite the credit rating. There is no proof that cash trans-
The transaction, which is sub- B Y A N I L PA D M A N A B H A N state with the largest party. The Congress should be cog- reduced to 44 seats, leaving it TURN TO PAGE 9®
ject to due diligence, definitive anil.p@[Link] Some of the implications of nizant of this, even while it hap-
····························

A R I STOTL E
agreements and regulatory the visible shift in political pily goes about with its negative
approvals, will strengthen NEW DELHI momentum in favour of the BJP, campaign both within and out-
INSIDE
UltraTech’s position as the coun-
try’s biggest cement maker and
comes at a time when India’s
economic growth is poised to
accelerate and the Narendra
T he last round of elections
for 2014 has been con-
cluded. Undoubtedly, the
overall winner is the Bharatiya
Janata Party (BJP). Like it did in
led by prime minister Narendra
Modi and party president Amit
Shah, are obvious and some not.
Here are five takeaways.
First, and the most obvious,
side Parliament. Playing the role
of an obstructionist is like being
on a razor’s edge, and striking a
fine balance has never been the
forte of the Congress.
Essay: A historic opportunity in Kashmir
Jharkhand elects its first majority govt
BJP, PDP keep all options open in J&K
‘Modi wave’ behind BJP’s improved show?
>P4
>P6
>P8
>P10

fiscal discipline rhetoric of many members and fers actually translate into votes, nor any study
Modi government has said that it the 16th general election, the Modi continues to be the elec- Politically, the BJP is going to For Congress, poor electoral run continues >P10
may increase public spending to BJP once again defied the odds toral flavour of the season. The find itself stronger. It now rules Omar: the last Abdullah? >P11
and surprised critics. In latest win reiterates the new seven states. Yet, the party will
Jharkhand votes for a stable govt >P12
TURN TO PAGE 2® Jharkhand it is poised to form dynamic in Indian politics, with have to figure out how it can
the first majority government in the BJP replacing the Congress monetize this political power to Incumbents brought down by rising youth aspirations >P13
Mint is also available for R8 with a state formed 14 years ago. In as the principal pole. The Con- ensure smooth passage of laws— The man with the Midas touch >P14
Hindustan Times in Delhi-NCR only Jammu and Kashmir, the party gress-led opposition may have a makeover of the Rajya Sabha

its criticism of mismanagement by opposition- to show what percentage of the outlay yields
ruled states, has succumbed to the lure of direct electoral gains. Political parties need to use an
cash transfers. With vote-seekers competing to internal-rate-of-return model to temper the
surpass each other’s schemes, it seems these indiscriminate use of cash transfers.

MY VIEW | MUSING MACRO

We need more sectors to become reliable dollar earners


$200 billion). Both can be said to be de facto analysed the structural changes that have product exports, revenue is additionally exports that involve undertaking turn-key
AJIT RANADE exports of skilled or semi-skilled labour. occurred in India’s export and import bas- impacted by the volatility of oil prices. As per projects and winning global tenders. These
This is India’s big competitive advantage. kets over the past two decades. There are Srivastava’s analysis, the share of polished too are basically the export of India’s talent
Sustaining this edge, especially in software, some surprising new winners. An example is diamonds, gold and other products has based on human capital and a direct conse-
will need climbing the value ladder and con- the growth in the export of mobile phones. dropped from 16.9% in 2004 to just 7.5% in quence of nurturing India’s education infra-
fronting the challenge of artificial intelli- From zero a few years ago, these have 2024. The share of textiles and clothing is structure. Project exports, which are a com-

I
ndia presently has more than a quarter gence (AI), which threatens to eliminate crossed $20 billion and are rising. This too down from 21.1% to 8%. Clothing and gar- bination of services and goods involving cus-
trillion dollars of essential imports. These most of the low-end coding work that was can become a steady ments were supposed to be tomized fabrication, can get tangled in long-
include crude oil, coal, edible unrefined outsourced to India. The rapid growth of source of dollar revenue. India’s advantage due to winded tax disputes. It is important that tax
oil, fertilizer, steel and copper. This list does Global Capability Centres (GCCs) catering to But unlike remittances India must tap their high labour intensity, policy does not kill this goose.
not include defence or pharmaceutical the world’s best corporations is a promising and software services, the but the performance has Another promising area of value-added
intermediates, which could also be called development, and soon there will be more export of engineering new export been dismal. Late starter exports is of tourism services, which are also
essential. Domestic production capacity for than 3,000 such GCCs. Inward remittances goods and mobile phones Vietnam, along with Bang- employment intensive. Spain gets 85 million
all these is unlikely to become ‘atma nirbhar’ have outpaced foreign direct investment has high import content.
opportunities, ladesh and even Sri Lanka, foreign tourists and Thailand gets 29 mil-

is a Pune-based economist
in the near future, even as demand will grow
as India chugs at a 7% or 8% growth rate.
and need to be encouraged. They come from
millions of workers who are at the lower end
Likewise, one of India’s
strongest dollar earning
especially in has overtaken India. Gar-
ment exports, along with
lion, compared to India’s 9 million. Not even
0.1% of China’s outbound tourists come to
These critical imports feed India’s energy
and food needs (edible oils) as well as down-
of the earning spectrum in Gulf countries
and North America. The cost of remittances
sectors, the export of diesel
and petrol, which now
service sectors erstwhile labour-intensive
sectors like footwear and
India, surely a huge opportunity. India can
double foreign tourist arrivals with appro-
stream industries such as automobiles and can be reduced in the same spirit as has been accounts for a fifth of all like tourism leather products, are any- priate promotion, branding, sectoral policy
electronics. Imported pharmaceutical done for the unified payments interface merchandise exports, has a way at risk of being dis- support and infrastructure. There are other
ingredients and special minerals are needed (UPI). The UPI system is a great success very high import compo- and education rupted by automation. The untapped opportunities in agricultural
for healthcare and the renewable revolution. thanks to a significant subsidy to keep it fric- nent. The net earning recent stagnation in Bang- products, but these have to be balanced
To pay for all these crucial imports in dollars, tionless and free for the end user. capacity of these exports is ladesh’s garment industry against the growing domestic needs of nutri-
we need to earn enough foreign exchange Beyond remittances and software servi- hence dwarfed by that of remittances and is a warning sign. Even in labour-intensive tion and cattle feed.
consistently for the next [Link] are ces, engineering goods exports have clocked software. Similarly, a decade ago, India was diamond polishing, the gloomy fate of the That said, paying for unavoidable and
our reliable dollar earners? The two strong above $110 billion this year and have grown the world’s leader in the export of polished diamond bourse in Surat is a sobering growing imports of education is a big area of
dependable export items that have grown by 40% in the past six years. If this trend con- diamonds, accounting for a 90% market reminder of the impact of competition from concern. These are expected to drain the
steadily are inward remittances (clocking tinues, it too would be a solid support to share by volume. Here too, the net export is other suppliers and changing tastes of global economy of $70 billion and more. India
$129 billion this year, the highest in the export earnings. In a report, Ajay Srivastava, very low, since 90% of the cost is of imported consumers. should become a net exporter of educational
world) and software services (exceeding founder of Global Trade Research Initiative, uncut diamonds. In the case of India’s petro- One growing sub-sector is that of service services instead.
[Link] VIEWS TUESDAY, 24 DECEMBER 2024
MUMBAI 15

GUEST VIEW M I N T C U R AT O R

The education imperative: May AI robots are on their way and


they’re likely to be Asian made
Parliament rise to the challenge Artificial intelligence is breathing new life into robotics in Asia

A country can’t prosper if too many children are left behind and it’s for our parliamentarians to transform this grim reality

PTI

CATHERINE THORBECKE
is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering
Asia tech.

GAURAV GOGOI
is a leader of the Indian National Congress and
a three-time member of Parliament
representing Assam

O
ver the past year, I’ve noticed an
overwhelming theme emerge
when Asian tech leaders look at

I
n ancient Indian philosophy, vidya—or wis- what comes next for artificial intelligence China accounts for 78% of all robotics
dom—is celebrated as the ultimate liberator, (AI). There has been a marked desire to patents over the past two decades. BLOOMBERG
the force that dispels ignorance and uplifts move beyond chatbots and software, and
individuals and societies. From the Vedic into the physical realm. lihoods, in Asia, there has been a tendency
chant “Asato ma sadgamaya”—lead me from We’ll start to see much more AI-enabled to welcome automation due to a people
ignorance to truth—to Mahatma Gandhi’s hardware and robotics—and it will be shortage.
vision of Nai Talim, education rooted in self-reli- coming from Asia. This is already playing out, although on
ance and character building, a broader construct The experience I’ve had tuning in to a small scale, in several creative ways. A
of knowledge has always been central to India’s many executive chats and tech conferen- Shenzhen startup is using an AI robot to
ethos. Yet today, this vision remains unfulfilled for ces could best be summed by Nvidia Chief help cook meals. A tool unveiled by Japan’s
millions of children. Despite attending school, Executive Officer Jensen Huang’s procla- Fujitsu in October teaches Noh, a perform-
many fail to acquire even basic literacy and numer- mation in Taipei in June. “The next wave ance art dating back to the 14th century
acy. Bridging the gap between schooling and of AI is physical AI,” he said. “The era of that is under pressure as there are fewer
learning is essential if we are to deliver on this robotics has arrived.” people who know the techniques to carry
ancient promise of vidya. Historically, a lot of coverage of robot- on the tradition. Not to mention the count-
India has made remarkable strides in education. human interactions in Asia have been less industrial robots.
Literacy rates have soared from 16% in 1947 to over filled with futuristic techno-orientalist While the region may currently be
80% today. Landmark policies, from the National tropes that often fail to reflect the reality. behind the US when it comes to AI now,
Education Policies of 1968 and 1986 to the trans- But there are factors that make the region Asian tech firms have shown great success
formative Right to Education (RTE) Act, have uniquely primed to propel this next leap in finding practical, market applications
expanded access, pushing enrolment from 50% in forward in integrating AI into the physical for technology developed elsewhere.
1951 to a near-universal level today. This situation calls for parliamentarians to advo- ment are key steps. For example, in Chile and Peru, world. While the US is the leader in AI Japanese tech entrepreneurs, espe-
Yet, every year, 2 million five- and six-year-olds cate smarter use of education funds. Ironically, providing parents with information on the income advances—and the software and internet cially, have been very good at this. Sony
enter Grade 1 in India. By age 10, over half of them while the government spends around 80% of the benefits of education, school quality and funding revolution emanated from Silicon Valley— Group perfected the consumer radio after
cannot read a basic sentence and fewer than 29% budget on printing textbooks, only 1.14% is spent options led to higher student attendance and Asian tech giants have traditionally been taking transistor technology invented in
can comprehend what they read. If these children on teacher handbooks, and less than 2% on assess- improved outcomes. Parental engagement pro- very good at the hardware side of things. the US. Sony also unveiled the first con-
formed a nation, it would be as large as Japan and it ments. It’s like buying a car but spending almost grammes in Madagascar, Chile and the Dominican Citigroup projects that there would be sumer robot to the mass market in 1999:
would be unrealistic to expect this nation to thrive nothing on fuel or maintenance. Without proper Republic significantly strengthened parent-school 1.3 billion AI robots globally by 2035 and 4 the beloved Aibo dog.
without addressing this learning crisis. guidance and measurement, textbooks won’t drive collaboration and boosted learning outcomes. billion by 2050, doing everything from There’s been a tendency to overhype
In a world driven by science and technology, the learning improvements. We need to shift focus, Data transparency and public disclosure can be household chores to delivering parcels. A the role and value of robots in Asian socie-
absence of foundational skills among India’s next investing in the tools and training that help teach- powerful tools to rally community support for bet- lot of the progress will come from China, ties, especially in Western reporting, when
billion learners is a looming disaster. But this crisis ers use textbooks effectively and measure progress ter education. Reliable assessments to measure which accounts for 78% of all robotics pat- the reality is much more nuanced.
can be averted—if parliamentarians step up. to ensure every rupee spent drives progress. student learning can be shared in a clear format for ents over the last two decades, Citi analysts I have yet to meet a real person in Japan
Five key priorities have emerged through my The third step is to boost teacher motivation. parents to assess school performance and hold said. Japan and South Korea make up 7% who ties Shinto animism beliefs into the
interactions with the International Parliamentary Low teacher salaries aren’t the root cause. The real them accountable. This exercise can lead parents and 5%, respectively, while the US contrib- embrace of robots. And mounting
Network for Education (IPNEd). challenge is that the majority of teachers are often to focus on outcomes rather than just school infra- utes just 3%. This dominance in Asian research suggests that eldercare robotic
The first step is to acknowledge the scale of the expected to manage diverse classrooms that have structure. Parliamentarians can amplify this infor- robotics remained just as strong when the experiments have not been worth the cost
challenge and foster a unified political commit- students of different ages and learning abilities, mation, empowering parents and communities to sheer quantity of patents was weighed and often end up causing more work for
ment to tackle it. Since India’s vast and complex making it hard to address everyone’s needs. Yet, demand better education in their schools. It could through a quality-assessment measure. caregivers (and that perhaps better immi-
education system serves 260 million children, only a small portion of the budget goes towards help turn education into a political priority. Moreover, robotics is an extremely gration policies to address labour
taught by 9.5 million teachers across 1.5 million training teachers to handle such challenges. We Better FLN outcomes can create a ripple effect expensive and difficult process. But crunches would be a more worthwhile
schools, bringing about any form of reform into must amplify our efforts to not only create sharp across the education system. As children master advancing in this sector has emerged as solution). Several high-profile robotic ven-
this system is an uphill battle. Encouragingly, the goals for teachers, but also train them on the right the basics, schools can focus on broader develop- part of China’s top-down priorities for its tures launched in recent years have been
government and the opposition recognize the skills to manage such classrooms, while creating a ment, integrating opportunities for sports, arts and tech ecosystem, meaning government curtailed.
urgency of improving learning outcomes. The cadre of mentors who can guide teachers in tack- cultural activities. Strong foundational skills lay subsidies in research and development, But AI could serve as a catalyst, espe-
government’s Nipun Bharat mission aims to ling challenges as they arise. the groundwork for holistic education—one that and other support give it an edge. cially as investors and company leaders
achieve universal foundational literacy and Parliamentarians should recognize and endorse not only strengthens academics, but also nurtures There are other societal factors that sug- increasingly search for practical and real-
numeracy (FLN) by Grade 3 by 2026-27, while the innovative methods to provide teachers with the well-rounded, responsible citizens. gest an embrace of AI robotics makes world applications for the technology that
opposition has also made increased FLN invest- necessary support, while taking out the time to Just as ancient India flourished with the trans- sense. Researchers have found Japan is go beyond just engaging chatbots.
ment a manifesto priority. felicitate teachers for their efforts. Parliamentari- formative power of vidya, today’s political leaders poised to be a global leader in deploying Softbank Group founder Masayoshi Son
However, political will alone isn’t enough—it ans also need to engage with teachers to under- empower children with ‘modern vidya.’ To achieve technologies that adopt automation, as it said in Tokyo last month that he is “pas-
must translate into effective funding. stand the challenges they face and convey those this, we need a coalition of political leaders across confronts an ageing population and sionate about AI robotics,” stating that like
In 2022-23, the Indian government allocated concerns to local authorities or the government. the Global South, committed to empowering shrinking workforce. AI-driven software his favourite cartoon, Astroboy, “you can’t
nearly $319 million to states for them to improve Once supply-side issues are addressed, parlia- teachers, engaging communities, securing timely coupled with hardware are being devel- just have the muscle, you have to have
primary education. Yet, only 20% of children mentarians must focus on empowering communi- funding, ensuring data transparency and sharing oped and implemented across all types of intelligence.”
gained basic language and mathematical skills. ties, especially parents, to demand quality educa- good practices in the mission of holistic learning. work, including white and blue collar, I remain sceptical that we’ll see the rise
The government has been spending large sums tion. Raising awareness of how parents can sup- The journey begins in the classroom, where we agriculture and services. of AI robots in 2025, but I have no doubt
every year, but unfortunately, improvements in port their children’s learning and must lead our children from ignorance to truth— While many US industries have been they’re coming, and that they will likely be
learning outcomes remain abysmally low. institutionalizing platforms for parental involve- and enable prosperity for generations to come. gripped by fears of robots taking away live- coming from Asia. ©BLOOMBERG

GUEST VIEW

Piketty’s tax advice for India should provoke thought


Milton Friedman, an American advocate of with Piketty in his book The Great Leveler lection has come down from 75% in 2010 to tainable Development Goal No. 10 exhorts
SATYA NARAYAN MISRA neo-liberalism, contended that “inequality (2017), which shows how the average tax rate around 42% now, and that of personal all states to reduce inequality and promote
is inevitable and may even be beneficial.” He on the top 1% of households came down from income tax has risen from 25% to 55% in this universal socioeconomic inclusion, ensure
added, “Social levelling leads to economic 42% to 27% from 1988 to 2013 in America. period. This is because the corporate tax rate equal opportunity and adapt fiscal and social
stagnation by removing incentives for hard World Inequality Report data shows that in was reduced from 30% to 25% in 2019. policies in ways that promote equality. The
work.” Arthur Laffer, economic advisor to India, the share of the population’s bottom Besides, the potential for tax evasion is Indian Constitution’s Article 38(2) also

S
peaking at an event recently, Thomas Ronald Reagan, proposed that a tax cut can half in total income has shrunk from 21% in higher with corporate tax than with personal enjoins the state “to reduce income inequal-
Piketty, author of Capital in the Twen- increase tax collections if the initial tax rate 1990 to 13% in 2O21, while income tax, which is often ity and eliminate inequality in opportunity.”
ty-First Century (2013), recommended is above its optimal level. In 1981, Reagan that of the top 10% has deducted at source. Jaitley, In Growing Cleavages in India? (2019), a
an ambitious plan for tax justice in India, brought down the highest marginal tax rate expanded from 32% to The country all in his 2017-18 budget paper by Banerjee, Piketty and Amory
asking the richest Indians who have gained in the US from 70% to 50%. Years later, 57%. This reflects an speech, gave us a flavour of Gethin, Indian elections from 1962 to 2014
the most from economic liberalization to Donald Trump reduced corporate tax from embrace of Reaganomics. but embraced tax evasion by saying how are studied to reveal how they are fought on
part with some of their wealth accumulation 35% to 21% and feted Laffer. In a recent inter- India’s tax on the top after demonetization it was “caste and religious lines rather than on tan-
to pay for higher investment in public servi- action at the World Knowledge Forum, income bracket came
Reaganomics noticed only 172,000 gible material benefits and class-based

is professor emeritus, KIIT


ces such as education and health. The very
rich, in his view, do not report much income,
Nobel laureate Abhijit Banerjee debunked
the contention that inequality is necessary
down from 50% in 1980 to
30% in 1997, and then
but it may be returns were filed with
earnings of more than ₹50
redistribution.”
Piketty’s recent suggestions reiterate
University, Bhubaneswar but a wealth tax of 2% on billionaires would
raise a lot of money to fund India’s rickety
for growth and said US growth momentum
slowed after its big tax cuts for corporates.
wealth tax was abolished in
2015-16. Finance ministers
time to address lakh, while 14.8 million
people deposited more
what he has been saying about tax justice in
India. As finance minister Nirmala Sitarara-
social infrastructure. He also urged India to But Piketty must get credit for turning P. Chidambaram and Arun worsening than ₹2 lakh in cash during man prepares to present her next budget,
raise its tax revenue as a proportion of GDP. Kuznets’ inverted U-curve hypothesis Jaitley, despite being from that currency switch. she could determine whether India should
There is a strong case for setting a target of upside down. Kuznets tried to demonstrate opposing ends of the polit- inequality In The Spirit Level (2009) take on further debt to fund our huge infra-
25% in the coming decade, for which a mix of that income inequality first increases and ical spectrum, led these tax authors Wilkinson and structure needs, or use taxation as an instru-
wealth tax and more progressive taxation on then decreases after reaching a certain level changes. It is also reflected Pickett bring out the perni- ment to fund social provisions and raise the
the super-rich “should be the direction India of economic development. Piketty showed in the Gini coefficient, which has shown ine- cious effect that inequality has on society. It quality of education, healthcare and tech-
should go.” India’s chief economic advisor, how US inequality has sharply increased quality worsening in recent decades. erodes trust, increasing anxiety and illness. nology access for the bottom 50% of Indians.
V. Anantha Nageswaran, who participated in since the 1980s. Piketty’s point is that ine- India’s low taxation policy is also visible in They also show how the index of health, India’s long neglect of public education for
the event, was of the view that such a tax quality is not an accident of history, but a a reduction in the share of corporate tax as a measured in terms of drug abuse, obesity, the masses, in particular, needs to end if we
regime would drive capital away. feature of capitalism that can be reversed proportion of GDP from 3.9% in 2010-11 to violence and child well-being outcomes, is are to meet the Constitutional mandate of
Globally, contrasting perspectives rooted through state intervention. Hence his case around 3% in recent years. Further, the significantly worse in more unequal coun- socio-economic justice and providing every-
in ideological differences grew sharp when for more taxation. Walter Scheidel concurs share of corporate tax in total direct tax col- tries, whether rich or poor. The UN’s Sus- one an equal opportunity.
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The biggest danger of AI is that we
attribute these godlike characteristics to Christopher
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06 HYDERABAD TUESDAY 24 12 2024


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F
OR the last 97 years, Time mag- Algorithms affect most parts of our lives today. With quantum machine now. It’s an animal with an al-
azine has been anointing a gorithm that is more alive, kicking and
INDIAN EXPRESS IS NOT AN ‘person of the year’ every year- computing set to be unleashed, the future looks loaded in learning oriented than any before. Of the
INDUSTRY. IT IS A MISSION. end. As a child who grew up on favour of the abilities of instructions coded in machines 26 sensors strategically placed in it, there
— Ramnath Goenka a staple of Time and Newsweek, is one on the egg tray. I have space for 24

INFLUENCER
I would eagerly look forward to neatly placed eggs. Every time the eggs
the year’s last editions simply are taken out, the algorithm is quick to
to see if I could guess who it would be. I calculate and work out a replenishment

FORMULATE PLANS succeeded only half the time. Neverthe-


less, thinking of all the persons I could OF THE YEAR: schedule. Over a period of time, my re-
frigerator is learning my family’s love

TO ARREST RAPID list as possibilities and then weeding


most of them out was a fun exercise. It
ALGORITHM
for eggs and is planning how much to re-
place and when.

FOREST DEGRADATION
gave me a kick. My fridge, in the bargain, is never
It wasn’t always called person of the empty. And never over-full either. My re-
year. In a less gender-sensitised era, it frigerator has learned my wife’s baking

T
was called man of the year and, in some love and the periodicity of her passion.
HE latest India State of Forest report says a quarter cases, woman of the year. It became the It keeps pace with egg replenishments,
of the country’s geographical area now is under person of the year in the noughties. What just as it plans for everything else my re-
forest cover—a spread of over 8.27 lakh sq km, started in 1927 with the coveted space HARISH BIJOOR Brand Guru and Founder, Harish Bijoor Consults frigerator is proud to stock. Give it time,
given to aviator Charles Lindbergh, was and the refrigerator will tell me what I
which is a 1,445.8-sq-km increase over the previous
given to Donald Trump for 2024. Time fea- want and when. Life is easier than be-
survey done in 2021. To be precise, this area is a tures a person, group, idea or object that, fore. Life is boring as well. Less routine.
combination of forests as well as tree cover outside of “for better or worse”, has done the most Less replenishment planning oriented.
them. The Forest Survey of India defines forest cover as to influence the events of the year. In time my pal the refrigerator will tell
areas of one hectare or more—notwithstanding their I go back to the ways of my school me why we should not be consuming so
ownership, legal status or use—with a tree canopy den- days. I sit down and list my own person many eggs a week for a family of 4. It, he,
sity of at least 10 percent. This was measured at 7.15 lakh of the year for 2024. And it is not Donald she or they (I have started respecting the
Trump. It is not human at all. For me, it algorithm that put my refrigerator mind
sq km last year. Over the assessment years two years is the algorithm. Call it a he, she, them or together) might even want to guide me to
apart, the forest cover alone has expanded by 156.4 sq km. it, the algorithm is the one biggest influ- the latest research on the subject of how
There are other positives in the report, including an im- encer of 2024. The algorithm has shaped many eggs are good.
provement in the mangrove cover, which acts as a bio- the lives of billions, and continues to in- The algorithm is more alive than be-
shield against natural calamities for India’s numerous fluence the future of everything. fore. It is influencing everything. It is
coastal communities. Let me introduce you to this being. It making a lot of things easier than ever
is a lifeless form with a life all its own. before. In many ways, it is giving birth to
However, a look beyond the headline numbers reveals
The algorithm to me is a recipe. It is not newer nuanced algorithms. Many of
worrying realities. The county’s recorded forest area has a dish. It is a clever recipe that results in these have the ability to tell me what to
improved by just 7.28 sq km between 2021 and 2023. Now a good and tasty dish. It has many ingre- do and what not to do. In the beginning I
couple it with the unsettling level of forest degradation— dients. It has many steps as well. It has a thought man made the algorithm. Today,
measured at a staggering 92,989 sq km in just the decade flow. It has both consistency and incon- the algorithm is making me.
between 2011 and 2021. The 2023 survey says that recorded sistency loaded into it. It is what makes My list of detailed and involved algo-
the world run today. All of life and living rithm interventions in our lives today
forest areas stand at 5.20 lakh sq km, including 91,000 sq
is governed by the algorithm. tells me there are a total of 186 spaces
km of very dense forests, 2.43 lakh sq km of moderately A cleverly structured algorithm makes SOURAV ROY already touched. As the months go by,
dense forests, and 1.85 lakh sq km open forests. The report for all convenient outputs we are so used expect more and more of every space
also says that over 40,709 sq km of very dense and moder- to in life. The clever point is that we live you are compromised to the ways of happen. You teach it. It learns. It then being touched. With the ability of
ately dense forests have been degraded into open forests in an algorithm-led world, with very few the digital and equally the ways of how teaches you back. It tells you who you quantum computing yet to be un-
over the decade. Similarly, 5,573 sq km of forest canopies of us understanding what it does. The an algorithm works its way into your are, what you like, what you want to do. leashed, the future looks loaded in fa-
have been reduced to scrubs. The scariest part is that the algorithm is here, and at the same time, lives, you will not resist the thought In the case of the rogue algorithm it tells vour of the algorithm and its super-
it isn’t. It is in hiding. The algorithm in that the horse has bolted. you what you can and must do as well. abilities to be the biggest intrusive and
canopy density of another 46,707 sq km has degraded to more ways than one is Maya. It is not The algorithm is a computation aid. It The algorithm has many approaches, influencing factor in our lives.
non-forest land—which means large parts of forests are physical. Instead, it is a bigger meta helps you solve a common consumer or many lives, many ways and will eventu- Many of us will not realise it, but
being cleaned up every year. This rapid degradation is as physicality that runs our lives, our econ- user problem by setting together a proce- ally have many moods as well. And in the there is a little bit of the algorithm in
alarming as deforestation. The threat it poses to biodiver- omy, our buying decisions, our consum- dure that takes one baby step at a time. It end, with its cousin learning and teach- our lives already. The reactive algo-
sity, pollution control and the essential work of forests as ing decisions and our very being. It’s simplifies to complicate. The end goal is ing mechanisms of machine learning rithm is a reality today. The proactive
carbon sinks is enormous. This comes after a March 2023 scary, but it is amidst us. None of us can to ensure the consumer’s life is made and autonomous learning mechanisms algorithm is waiting in the wings, just
escape it, however much we try. richer and easier. that developers are working on to un- as it is waiting to give all of us wings,
report from a UK-based agency that analysed deforestation
Let me tell you why I choose Ms Al- The algorithm is, however, an animal. leash in a more speedy manner, expect even as we silently complain as to how
trends in 98 countries over 30 years to show that India gorithm as the super-influencer of the In the beginning, it is a simple recipe. algorithm mayhem. a whole lot of decision-making is not in
ranked second only after Brazil—home to the world’s year and equally the years ahead. Eve- And then it assumes a life of its own. It If I am to add an example, let me take our hands anymore.
greatest rainforest, Amazon—in the worrying trend. We ry passing day, each of us has progres- becomes a thinking recipe. It learns. It the case of my smart refrigerator. It is 7 On that note, cheers to the person of
must formulate strategies to arrest and reverse this wor- sively adopted the digital way of life. feeds itself, and by the end of the day you feet tall and 4 feet wide. Physicals apart, the year, the algorithm.
rying trend as climate change looms larger. Anyone with a smartphone under- might as well expect it to be a sentient it is a mean machine. It is a multi-sensor (Views are personal)
stands he is hooked to WhatsApp. If animal. In the beginning you make it equipped animal. I will stop calling it a (harishbijoor@[Link])

FILLING ASHWIN’S SHOES


WILL BE A BIG CHALLENGE RELIGION IN THE TIME
OF UNCERTAINTIES
R
AVICHANDRAN Ashwin’s retirement announcement Simplify GST
came out of the blue. Not that it was unusually sur- Ref: GST’s popcorn moment leaves everyone
with bitter aftertaste (Dec 23). The increasing
prising for a cricketer aged 38. But the venom has not
complexities in GST structure are disturbing.

A
yet left his bowling, especially in home conditions. As few months ago, Elon Musk said But the government alone cannot be blamed
we have come to expect from Ashwin, he did not want ‘woke’ was a virus and he would for this state of affairs. All the state finance
to be part of a tour as a tourist. So, aptly enough, a senior not rest till he destroyed it. Apart ministers are represented in the GST Council
player who played cricket on his own terms also decided to from other motivations, he said and they should recommend a simplified
retire on his own terms. His illustrious career ended with he ‘lost’ his young son to the left C P SURENDRAN Poet, novelist, and screenplay writer. His latest model for implementation.
537 wickets in 106 Tests—the second highest lifetime haul as the progressive establishment novel is One Love and the Many Lives of Osip B Rajarao Kumar, Bengaluru
wholeheartedly assisted the boy’s
for an Indian bowler. Six Test tons are also etched against irrevocable transition to become a girl. Taxing opulence
his name. All these made him one of the chief architects of What must a father or mother do when ty, people often gravitate towards these mum income for the underprivileged, then It is true that GST is becoming ever more
India’s home Test record between 2012 and 2024. they lose the right to protect their chil- constructs to find meaning and stability. really all you need to do is directly transfer complex with every passing GST Council
Yet, the way he announced his retirement did create a dren from what they consider legitimate From our own experience, we know that sufficient affirmative doles to their ac- meeting. One fails to understand why the
stir. Ashwin’s mid-series announcement and return to personal choices when the wards are le- nationalism can foster a sense of commu- counts. In the space of a generation, they council does not consider snacks items served
India sparked a debate on whether he did it the right way, gally minors? The problem is not person- nity and shared purpose. Caste and class are likely to find themselves more propor- in star hotels and lavish dinners of rich people
al. It is cultural, social and political. divisions did not much affect the unifying, tionately represented in society. to generate tax instead of targeting the poor
or should he have been given a ‘farewell Test’. The latter
When does a child’s individual prefer- grand narrative of the freedom struggle. Rapid technological and economic man’s popcorn enjoyed by all. If this complex
seemed a bit superfluous given that the last cricketer who ence get precedence over a well-meaning This is not to blindly defend god or race. changes too can lead societies to gravitate nature of GST continues, I am afraid state
got a proper farewell Test was Sachin Tendulkar in 2013. and god-fearing family’s rights? I am a disbeliever. But in many cases, both toward ‘strong’ leadership. The extension governments may boycott future council
Even if there was to be one at home for Ashwin, it would Except there is no god; the family, too, is factors play a part in the generally accept- of identity politics, cancel culture, and meetings as a protest.
have been at least nine months away. With a packed inter- a disintegrating unit in the West. In The ed notion of nationalism. Can there be an virtue supremacism may eventually frag- Jayaprakash Reddy, Nalgonda
national calendar till then and the IPL in between, it God Delusion (2006), Richard Dawkins cri- ment societies into tribes of competing
tiques the idea of a supernatural deity and grievances, making their return to broad- Cover borewells
would have been difficult to organise one.
argues against the ‘god hypothesis’. He er, unifying narratives more appealing. Ref: Get tougher laws to stop borewell deaths
There are other pressing matters right now for the contrasts a creator-designed world with a Indeed, this is possibly why the world (Dec 23). Deaths due to children falling into
team. First, they have to find an able successor to Ashwin, naturalistic worldview, where the uni- is shifting to strong leaders. Strength is borewells is quite sad. Borewell owners can
who transformed the craft of spin-bowling into an art. verse is governed solely by physical laws. seductive. The strong offer the one thing easily protect the area with a fence or cover
Washington Sundar is there in the squad; but purely in Dawkins is not the first to challenge we are constantly in short supply of: the top. But the lethargic attitude and less
WIKIMEDIA COMMONS

terms of skills, filling in Ashwin’s shoes will not be easy. the idea of a creator. Since the 1850s, hope. In the war between believers (the awareness among owners is the reason for this
Finding an off-spinner—a breed slowly becoming a rari- when Charles Darwin published On the right) and non-believers (the left), believ- type of unwanted incidents.
Origin of Species, the idea of god has ers tend to win. Why? Because believers S Chockalingam, Kottaram
ty—will not be easy. There are not many in the domestic been on a shaky ground. But at no point tend to fight more for their convictions.
circuit who could come close to the veteran. Jalaj Saxena in history has he/she been more chal- In Submission (2015), a controversial Secure borders
is 38, Jayant Yadav is 34 and the majority of the wicket- lenged. Secularism, a kind of deification Since the 1850s, when Charles Darwin novel by Michel Houellebecq, François, a Ref: Bangladesh stirring trouble to hide
taking spinners in Ranji Trophy are left-armers. One of the human, has taken centre stage. published On the Origin of Species, the middle-aged literature professor at the crisis (Dec 23). It is a matter of concern that
young spinner who can be slowly moulded is Tanush Ko- Humanity’s move from divine right to Sorbonne François is represented as a Bangladesh is going the Pakistan way in
human rights and the individual’s central
idea of god has been on a shaky ground. decadent and liberal. He is disillusioned radicalism and fundamentalism. The nexus
tian of Mumbai—at 26, he is poised to replace Ashwin for Yet, in times of uncertainty, people
role in the universe seems to be a second with his life; marked by failed relation- between the two countries is a worrisome
the remainder of the series. Whosoever comes next, he
stage of the Renaissance. But if neither often gravitate towards nationalism ships, academic stagnation, and a sense of development to India. It has become
will be compared with the likes of Harbhajan Singh and god, king, priest, mother or father are ac- existential ennui. He likes good wine, good necessary for India to secure its borders with
Ashwin. To succeed, the bowler has to have exceptional
and religion to find meaning and
ceptable as figures of authority, how does food, and women. He believes in nothing. security forces so that infiltration and terror
qualities and the even rarer trait—temperament. that crowded absence impact society? Re- stability. So it can be a reliable tool to He is a critic of Western secular values. attacks are averted.
member, these are the days when the very unify the multiverse of India Against this backdrop, in the presiden- R Sridharan, Chennai
idea of the hero is dead. Can secularism tial elections, the Islamic Brotherhood, led
Q U I C K TA K E fill the void? Not too well, it turns out. England without the Anglican church and by Abbes, emerges as a strong, peaceful, Common celebrations
To a great extent, this explains the re- Anglo-Saxons? Or India without lord Ram centrist force capable of uniting disparate Ref: When festivals hop over religious lines
DON’T DROP BOOK POST sults of the recent US elections, in which
a strong patriarchal, anarchist-libertari-
and Hindus? Without these fictions, it be-
comes hard to define a nation.
factions. To block the far-right National
Front, the mainstream political parties
(Dec 23). It was a heartening read as the
author identified the values that Christianity

A
thoughtful scheme crafted to promote reading around an like Donald Trump won against a So, when Prime Minister Narendra form an alliance with the Brotherhood, and Hinduism commonly celebrate. At a time
the country was quietly discontinued last week. Book seemingly stable, warm and rational per- Modi is trying to ‘unify’ the multiverse of enabling Abbes to become the president. when people are being divided so much, such
son like Kamala Harris. India through appeals to traditional forces In the world of the novel, the liberals an article is more than welcome.
Post, which allowed quicker and cheaper delivery of Even more than the dire economics of such as religion, he is merely tapping into play into the hands of a strong third par- V Suresh, Chittoor
printed books and periodicals, will now be rolled into the the American situation, MAGA has been a rich, reliable vein. One of the great chal- ty that believes. François does not much
registered post service. The move was part of a series of a cultural correction. Commentators de- lenges of power is to hold things together. care as his career is looking up under the Festive cheer
rate increases and scheme revamps by India Post. The scribed it as a ‘fork in the history of civi- On the other hand, Rahul Gandhi new dispensation. Houellebecq’s point is The author has rightly pointed out the
Book Post was hardly among the main reasons for the de- lisation’ because they thought the fringe would like to play the underprivileged that in a given situation, believers tend commonalities of different religions. It is
partment’s gargantuan losses, which increased from `5,309 and the ‘looney left’ had taken over the card as he believes a resurgence in that to win. This is a problematic point. But true that most Hindus share the happiness of
American mainstream culture. quarter amounts to national progress. we will need to address it sooner or later celebrating Christmas. Christians also have
crore in 2012-13 to `20,538 crore in 2022-23. The government
In 21 Lessons for the 21st Century, Yuval But that, too, is politics: Rahul is, after to see why India—and the rest of the Indianised their approach to worship. The
often sets a standard in services and rates by intervening Noah Harari discusses the role of nation- all, the opposition. Because it is not very world— is going where it is. festive mood catches many Hindus as true love
in a market otherwise served by profit-minded private play- alism and religion in contemporary soci- difficult to solve the caste impasse. For ex- (Views are personal) has no religion.
ers. The Book Post was one such essential intervention. ety. He suggests that in times of uncertain- ample, if you arrive at an acceptable mini- (cpsurendran@[Link]) P Prema, Thanjavur

THE NEW INDIAN EXPRESS


Chairman of the Board: Manoj Kumar Sonthalia Editor: Santwana Bhattacharya
Resident Editor (Telangana) : T Kalyan Chakravarthy* Printed and Published by R K Jhunjhunwala on behalf of Express Publications (Madurai) Private Ltd., at [Link].6-3-1113/1, [Link] Lane, Somajiguda, Near Grand Kakatiya Hotel, Punjagutta, Hyderabad – 500 016 and printed by him at Sakshi Press, Plot No.D-75 & E-52, Industrial Estate (APIE),
Balanagar, Medchal-Malkajgiri District, Telangana. Hyderabad: Vol. 48, No. 305 RNI Reg. No. 32179/77. Phone: 040-23413908. * Responsible for selection of News under the PRB Act. Copyright: Express Publications (Madurai) Private Ltd., All rights reserved. Reproduction in any manner, electronic or otherwise, in whole or in part, without prior written permission is prohibited.
NEW DELHI | TUESDAY | DECEMBER 24, 2024

06
[Link]
[Link]/dailypioneer | @TheDailyPioneer | [Link]/dailypioneer/
PAPER WITH PASSION
Macau: The glittering
Attack and aftermath
Christmas market attack in Germany reigniting polarising
debates about immigration and national security
recent attack on a Christmas market in Magdeburg, Germany, has reignited con-
gem in Xi Jinping’s China SANTHOSH MATHEW

A tentious debates about immigration and national security, with far-right groups
seizing the moment to push for mass deportation of immigrants. The tragedy,
which claimed the lives of five individuals and left dozens injured, has sent shock-
For the Chinese Communist Party, Macau is a beacon of controlled capitalism,
waves across Germany, leading to both solemn remembrances and polarising polit- showcasing the potential of the “One Country, Two Systems” framework
ical rhetoric. On the evening of December 20, a car driven by Taleb al-Abdulmohsen, hen Chinese

W
a 50-year-old psychiatrist originally from Saudi Arabia, careened into a crowded President Xi
Christmas market. The attack lasted three harrowing minutes, during which over 200 Jinping landed
people were struck, leaving 40 with critical injuries. Authorities arrested al-Abdulmohsen in Macau, the
at the scene, and he now faces multiple charges of murder, attempted murder, and world’s gam-
bling capital, the air was thick
grievous bodily harm. Despite living in Germany for nearly two decades, the sus- with anticipation. Macau, often
pect’s motives remain unclear. Investigators have yet to establish any ideological or dubbed the “Las Vegas of the
political motivations. East,” is much more than a bea-
In the wake of the tragedy, far-right groups have con of wealth and opulence. For
Xi and the Chinese Communist
amplified their calls for stricter immigration controls Party (CCP), it is a sparkling gem
and mass deportations. On December 21, approx- in the palm of China’s vast and
imately 2,100 demonstrators gathered in Magdeburg complex economic system—a
to voice their outrage. Protesters, some wearing black model of the “One Country, Two
Systems” framework that allows
balaclavas, carried banners with slogans like capitalist practices to thrive under
“Reimigration Now” and “migration kills.” The term the watchful eye of a socialist
“reimigration” has become a rallying cry for far-right regime. Xi’s visit underscored
factions advocating the forced removal of immigrants the stark contrasts between the-
ory and practice in the CCP’s gov- veer toward autonomy or dis- party’s narrative that socialism transform India into a global
and individuals deemed non-ethnically German. ernance and the lessons it offers sent, as evidenced in Hong with Chinese characteristics economic powerhouse. At the
Chants such as “Anyone who doesn’t love Germany not only for China’s neighbours Kong. The “One Country, can coexist with, and even heart of this debate is the ques-
should leave” and “We must take back our cities, but for the world at large. Two Systems” model—once benefit from capitalist mech- tion of whether ideology
our villages, and our homeland” echoed through the streets. The incident has deep- Macau’s significance lies in its lauded as a masterstroke of anisms. should dictate policy. The
unique identity. A former governance—has increasingly The underlying contradictions CCP’s approach—that opinion
ened divisions within Germany over immigration and integration policies. Critics argue Portuguese colony, it returned to become a tool for consolidat- are hard to ignore. The CCP’s is not an iron rod—offers a
that far-right groups are exploiting the tragedy to stoke xenophobia and advance their Chinese sovereignty in 1999 ing Beijing’s authority. Hong insistence on ideological puri- compelling case for pragma-
anti-immigrant agenda. Meanwhile, local communities have sought to counter the under the promise of autonomy. Kong’s story is a cautionary ty clashes with its pragmatic tism. Yet, the party’s intoler-
rhetoric of hate with acts of solidarity. A silent vigil was held at Magdeburg’s Cathedral Today, its glitzy casinos, luxury tale. embrace of market-driven ance for dissent, as seen in its
hotels, and sprawling Special A vibrant hub of multina- policies. This duality is reflect- suppression of Mao’s “Let a
Square on the same evening as the protest, with participants lighting candles in mem- Economic Zone (SEZ) generate tional corporations (MNCs) ed in Xi’s leadership, which Hundred Flowers Bloom”
ory of the victims. German authorities have called for calm and emphasised the need billions annually, contributing and transnational corpora- combines Maoist centralisa- campaign, highlights the dan-
for a thorough investigation. Chancellor Olaf Scholz expressed condolences to the substantially to China’s GDP. But tions (TNCs), it has been at the MACAU’S tion with Dengist pragma- gers of unchecked authority.
victims’ families and condemned both the attack and the use of such tragedies to while the dice roll and fortunes forefront of economic global- tism. The CCP’s success in eco-
are made on Macau’s gaming isation. However, its recent SIGNIFICANCE For Maoists, Naxalites, and nomic management is unde-
spread divisive ideologies. The attack has reignited debates over Germany’s approach tables, the CCP’s control remains struggles with political dissent urban Naxals in India, as well niable, but its human rights
LIES IN ITS
to immigration and the balance between openness and security. While far-right voic- unyielding. and Beijing’s heavy-handed as other ideologues clinging to record and stifling of democ-
es call for stringent measures, advocates for multiculturalism warn against the dan- The irony is palpable. The CCP, responses reveal the limits of UNIQUE rigid dogmas, Macau stands as ratic aspirations serve as stark
gers of collective punishment. This incident underscores the fragility of Europe’s a party built on anti-capitalist ide- the “Two Systems” promise. a testament to the power of reminders of the cost of its
ology, oversees the largest SEZ in The CCP’s crackdown on pro- IDENTITY. adaptation. The CCP’s ability iron-fisted rule.
social cohesion in times of crisis. As Germany mourns, the challenge lies in address- the world in Shanghai, nurtures democracy movements in to evolve, to reconcile its As Xi Jinping departed Macau,
A FORMER
ing security concerns without succumbing to fear-driven policies that erode the val- capitalism in Hong Kong, and Hong Kong has sent a clear Marxist-Leninist roots with the world was left pondering
ues of inclusivity and tolerance that underpin the nation’s democratic fabric. allows gambling—once con- message: economic freedom PORTUGUESE the demands of a modern, the paradoxes of modern
demned as a moral vice—to does not translate to political globalised economy, has been China. Under his leadership,
flourish in Macau. This duality autonomy. Macau, in contrast, COLONY, IT the cornerstone of China’s the CCP has doubled down on
PICTALK reflects the pragmatic philosophy
first espoused by Deng Xiaoping:
has largely avoided such con-
flicts, partly due to its econom-
RETURNED TO rise. This is a far cry from the
ideological purism that often
centralisation, curbing dissent
while championing economic
“It doesn’t matter if a cat is black ic dependence on Beijing and CHINESE paralyzes leftist movements liberalisation. Macau’s glitter-
or white, as long as it catches the absence of a robust pro- elsewhere. ing casinos and towering sky-
mice.” This approach has been democracy movement. Yet, SOVEREIGNTY India, too, can draw inspiration scrapers are symbols of this
pivotal in transforming China this does not make Macau IN 1999 UNDER from Macau. As the world’s duality, where capitalism
into the world’s second-largest immune to the inherent ten- largest democracy grapples thrives under the shadow of
economy. Yet it also lays bare the sions of “One Country, Two THE PROMISE with its development chal- socialism. For Xi, Macau is
contradictions at the heart of CCP Systems.” lenges, it must consider the more than a gem in China’s
rule. As Xi extolled Macau’s success, OF AUTONOMY role of SEZs, MNC headquar- palm; it is a symbol of the
Xi Jinping’s Macau visit was not he also warned against com- ters, and even industries like CCP’s ability to adapt and
merely ceremonial. It was a reaf- placency and stressed the need gambling in driving econom- endure. Whether in the neon-
firmation of the CCP’s ability to for “long-term stability,” a ic growth. While gambling lit streets of Macau or the cor-
adapt and wield capitalist tools euphemism for unwavering remains taboo in much of ridors of power in Beijing, the
while maintaining a tight grip on allegiance to the [Link] the India, the success of Macau CCP’s experiment in con-
power. In Macau, Xi emphasised CCP, Macau and Hong Kong shows how regulated gaming trolled capitalism continues to
stability and loyalty to the central are not just economic engines; can become a major revenue shape the future of China—
government. This aligns with his they are experiments in con- source. and the world.
broader strategy of tightening trolled capitalism. The success Similarly, expanding SEZs and (The writer is an associate
control over regions that might of these regions bolsters the creating hubs for MNCs can professor; views are personal)

People dressed as Santa Claus during Christmas celebration, in Chennai PTI LETTERS TO THE EDITOR
CONTROVERSY OVER AMBEDKAR
Madam —The row over the insult to Dr Indian diaspora remits $129 billion
Navigating the intersection of Bhim Rao Ambedkar is neither factual
nor logical since the home minister ing love of Indians for their homeland.
never insulted Dr Ambedkar in his Remittances have unlocked new avenues for

technology, law and human rights speech by words or intention; rather, the
fact is that no leader from the BJP has
ever insulted Dr BR Ambedkar publicly
development in rural and urban areas, foster-
ing investment in education, healthcare, and
infrastructure. It has provided stability to rural
SHAINY SHARMA
or in Parliament or state assemblies, economies while empowering small and medi-
In a world increasingly shaped by digital technologies, the concept whereas Congress has a documented his-
tory of opposition to Ambedkar. It is no
um enterprises.
Indians living abroad establish their identity on
of ‘digital arrest’ has emerged as a controversial tool in cyberspace secret that the first PM, JL Nehru, was
never on good terms with Dr Ambedkar,
foreign soil through resilience and courage. By
dedicating a significant portion of their income
he term ‘Digital ties can equip individuals and MK Gandhi too had an uncomfort- to the development of their families and nation,

T Arrest’ often referred


to as the restriction,
monitoring, or apprehen-
with the knowledge and
tools needed to engage effec-
tively and securely in the
able equation with Ambedkar, while it
may be argued that the twin Congress
leaders (Gandhi and Nehru) were right
I
n 2024, Indian expatriates achieved a historic
milestone by sending $129 billion in remit-
they exemplify cultural values and familial com-
mitment. This inflow strengthens India’s foreign
exchange reserves and energises local business-
sion of individuals through digital world. when it comes to national interest and tances. This amount not only surpasses es. With strong policy measures, the govern-
online mechanisms extends As the digital world contin- the movement of Indian independence India’s vast defence budget and foreign direct ment can further enhance this success.
beyond the confines of tra- ues to evolve, so too will the to oppose Dr Ambedkar. investment but also exceeds the combined bud- Remittances are not merely economic contri-
ditional legal systems to methods of enforcement Unfortunately, the national politics has gets of Pakistan and Bangladesh. This flow of butions; they represent the collective effort and
encompass actions in cyber- and resistance. New tech- reached the spot where Dr BR funds symbolises not just economic support but national pride of Indians across the globe.
space, such as freezing dig- nologies, such as artificial Ambedkar has been established as a also the hard work, dedication, and unwaver- RK Jain | Barwani
ital assets, blocking online intelligence and blockchain, godly figure, though he never participat-
accounts, or limiting access may influence how digital ed in any struggle for Indian indepen- the cacophony unleashed by the accident, ACTION AGAINST MINING MAFIA
to certain platforms or lim- arrests are carried out and dence for which the Congress claims sole but bystanders just filmed his suffering Madam — The operation of the mining
iting individual freedom in challenged. credit and abuses Bharatiya JanaSangh rather than offering aid. Pathetic. People mafia is a well-known fact for a long time
a virtual or online environ- Transparency in enforce- and BJP for their nonparticipation, believe in publicity rather than provid- to both the governments of Rajasthan and
ment. ment, the right to appeal, never mentioning Ambedkar for his ing succour and relief. No wonder, actu- Haryana, including the efforts put forth by
As technology permeates ments or agencies freeze participate in acts akin to and global cooperation on nonparticipation because that would be ally; these days people do anything for the general public in complaining against
every aspect of life, the digital wallets associated digital arrest, raising ques- ethical standards are essen- politically incorrect. Neither making a short time of fame. They will upload such acts with no stoppage of the bring-
implications of digital arrest with criminal activities tions about authority, power tial steps in creating a just Ambedkar the god nor considering the such videos to garner views and likes, ing down of the Aravalli hills. However, a
have grown even more sig- thereby preventing the illic- dynamics, and accountabil- digital society. There is no Constitution a heavenly document maybe monetise. They keep refreshing common man hesitates to lodge an FIR, as
nificantly, offering both it flow of funds and support- ity in cyberspace. denying that digital arrest would be democratically or even consti- their page to see like and comment sta- he is aware of the consequences he will face
opportunities and challenges ing global financial regula- To balance security and represents the intersection of tutionally correct. tus anxiously. with negligible police protection for a lim-
in governance, security, and tions. individual rights in the dig- technology, law, and human Jai Prakash Gupta | Ambala Cantt It’s more horrible that in the quest for ited time and the creation of animosity with
individual rights in disman- While the concept is still ital era, taking measures rights in the digital age. social media, people have forgotten to be the mafia, resulting in a threat to his life
tling operations such as ran- evolving, digital arrest such as establishing trans- While it offers tools for APATHY AT ITS WORSE human! Shame on us. People want to and discouraging him from fighting with
somware groups, hacking encompasses aspects of parent and enforceable reg- enforcing order and combat- Madam—This is our modern India. know that this is the reality of our such a large force. Sending inspecting
collectives, and online mar- cybersecurity, legal frame- ulations that define the ing crime, it also poses risks When a Jaipur gas tanker explosion left Sanskar. We have read many cases like teams to the blasted site from both the gov-
ketplaces for illegal activities. works, and the social conse- scope of digital arrest; over- to freedom and privacy. motor mechanic Radheyshyam these where precious lives could have ernment is purely an eyewash in the eyes
For instance, international quences of living in a high- seeing the use of digital As society becomes increas- Choudhary with 85 per cent burns. He been saved by the onlookers instead of of the public until concrete action is taken
efforts have led to the clo- ly digitised world. arrest mechanisms to ensure ingly reliant on digital infra- bravely walked 600 meters while engulfed taking useless videos. It’s high time that at a national level involving the NIA. A
sure of dark web platforms At its core, this kind of accountability and prevent structure, the concept of in flames, even calling his brother before YouTube and Instagram stop paying peo- strategic policy with amendments to the
such as Silk Road and the arrest involves leveraging misuse; developing univer- digital arrest will likely con- succumbing to his injuries at SMS ple for videos. Moreover, big vehicles like existing mining rules is required to be pon-
apprehension of their oper- technolog y to enforce sal guidelines for promoting tinue to evolve, demanding Hospital. Shockingly, by mid-morning, tankers and buses should be given a sep- dered upon to make it pragmatic and not
ators. Also, restrictions or punish fairness and consistency thoughtful and ethical videos of the aftermath of the gas tanker arate lane. It’s there in all developed theoretical to be effective.
Cryptocurrencies and digi- actions taken in the digital across jurisdictions and approaches to its imple- explosion on the national highway were countries. It’s important to react with R S Narula | Patiala
tal financial assets have sphere. Various government most importantly raising mentation. circulating online, with more than one improvements so that such foolish
brought about new forms of agencies, corporations, and public awareness about dig- (The writer is an educator; showing a burning man struggling to stay mishaps don’t happen. Send your feedback to:
digital arrest, where govern- even individual users can ital rights and responsibili- views are personal) on his feet as he scampered for help amid Bidyut Kumar Chatterjee | Faridabad letterstopioneer@[Link]
NEW DELHI | TUESDAY | DECEMBER 24, 2024

07
[Link] [Link]/dailypioneer | @TheDailyPioneer | [Link]/dailypioneer/

FIRSTCOLUMN A roadmap for financial


SUCCESS THROUGH
WORKPLACE INTELLIGENCE
It is the ability to adapt to the work environment
sustainability of India Post SUBHASH CHANDRA
AGARWAL
through emotional and cognitive intelligence
India Post is at a crossroads. As private courier services continue to expand their
market share with speed and convenience, it must adapt to stay competitive

SAKSHI SETHI
n today’s dynamic work environment, workplace intelligence has

I become a cornerstone for achieving personal growth, team cohesion,


and organisational excellence. Workplace intelligence refers to the abil-
ity of individuals and organisations to navigate, adapt, and thrive in the
professional environment through effective understanding, communica-
tion and decision-making. It encompasses emotional intelligence, social
intelligence, and cognitive intelligence blended together with technolog-
ical advancements thereby creating a comprehensive approach towards
addressing the root causes of toxicity and fostering a positive workplace
culture. There is no denying that such intelligence not only plays a piv-
otal role in creating a healthy, harmonious and productive professional
environment but also equips individuals and organisations with the tools
to identify, mitigate and prevent toxic behaviours that can undermine
morale, collaboration and overall success.
It is often believed that employees with high workplace intelligence can
manage their tasks efficiently and adapt to new challenges with mini-
mal disruption. By leveraging cognitive and emotional intelligence, they
can prioritize effectively and maintain focus, leading to improved pro-
ductivity. Also, social and emotional intelligence enables them to work
harmoniously with others, promoting effective communication and min-
imizing conflicts. Strong teamwork followed by leaders with workplace
intelligence inspires trust, and motivation and navigate through complex
challenges with clarity and empathy. It even enhances creativity, inno- ndia Post, a vital lifeline in connect- face mail. not only ensure better regulation their accounts or claimed matured
vation and the achievement of their collective goals and even reduces
stress, boosts morale, and contributes to overall job satisfaction. In an
era of rapid technological advancements and shifting market dynam-
I ing citizens across the country,
needs to undergo a comprehensive
review of its services. This reform
should focus on introducing inno-
vation, ensuring greater revenue gener-
ation for the Department of Posts (DoP),
and maintaining affordability for the pub-
Generating Revenue Through
Sponsored Postal Stamps
To boost revenue, the DoP should
introduce sponsored postal stamps.
These stamps, carrying advertise-
ments or approved messages, could
be issued in bulk to sponsors at a
but also offer a significant revenue
stream.
Enhancing
Convenience with Sticker
Receipts
Consumer

Currently, receipts issued by the


Postal Department include a stick-
deposits for over three years. If no
response is received within three
months, the funds should be frozen
in fixed accounts and made acces-
sible only after rigorous verifica-
tion. Publishing details of such
accounts could help legal heirs
lic. As private courier services continue fixed charge per printed stamp. er only on the portion retained by claim their rightful amounts, sub-
to gain traction due to their convenience This initiative could attract busi- the Department, leaving the con- ject to stringent scrutiny. The
and efficiency, India Post must adapt to nesses, encouraging them to utilise sumer without one. Adding stick- introduction of successive nomina-
remain competitive and relevant in a postal services over private couri- ers to consumer receipts would tions, as practiced by LIC of India,
rapidly changing environment. er companies. eliminate the need for gum to paste would further safeguard deposits
Rationalising Postal Tariffs and Additionally, a new series of defin- them onto dispatch registers or and simplify inheritance process-
Eliminating GST on Select Services itive postal stamps and stationery documents. This small change es.
The current structure of postal services could be launched annually on the could save public resources and Expanding Postal Ser vices
includes highly subsidised offerings, first day of the financial year. improve the user experience, espe- Through Bank Counters
such as postcards priced as low as 50 These stamps should maintain cially for organisations that rely The closure of post offices in key
ics, workplace intelligence equips employees and organisations with the paise. While such subsidies aim to make THE ‘MY-STAMP’ consistent color schemes for spe- heavily on postal services. commercial areas, such as Chandni
resilience and adaptability needed to stay competitive. By fostering emo- communication accessible, they are often cific denominations while show- Introducing RTI Stamps and Chowk in Old Delhi, has caused
tional and social intelligence, workplace intelligence helps identify and
exploited. For instance, during Lok INITIATIVE, casing new designs based on a Rationalising Postal Orders inconvenience for businesses that
Sabha elections in 2019, political parties selected theme. Commemorative Postal orders in low denominations rely on Registered and Speed Post
mitigate toxic behaviours, thereby ensuring a positive and respectful work used postcards extensively, resulting in WHICH ALLOWS stamps, previously issued in arbi- such as Rs 1, Rs 2, Rs 5, and Rs 7 services. With banks increasingly
environment. significant costs to the public exchequer. trary denominations like Rs 12 and were discontinued due to high han- adopting government savings
By promoting training and development, organisations can invest in train- Similarly, postcards are frequently mis-
INDIVIDUALS TO Rs 41, should be standardised to dling costs. For example, the han- schemes, their branches could be
ing programmes that focus on emotional intelligence, communication used for commercial purposes, such as PRINT PERSONAL denominations in multiples of Rs dling cost of a postal order in utilised for booking postal services.
skills and technological proficiency. Open and constructive feedback mech- reminders by chit-fund companies. 10. Furthermore, the practice of 2011–12 was Rs 37.45, far exceed- Offering banks a nominal commis-
anisms help the employee grow and refine their workplace intelligence These subsidised services, rarely used by IMAGES ON printing stamps of different ing its value. To minimise losses, sion for hosting these services
the common man, burden taxpayers POSTAGE denominations on the same sheet, higher denominations like Rs 100, would not only enhance accessibil-
over time. Emphasising diversity and inclusion helps individuals devel- without corresponding benefits. except for miniature sheets, should Rs 200, and Rs 500 could be intro- ity but also integrate postal and
op social intelligence by interacting with people from different backgrounds To address this, printed or rubber- STAMPS, HAS be discontinued as it complicates duced. Furthermore, RTI-specific banking ecosystems more effective-
and perspectives. Encouraging continuous learning and adaptability stamped postcards should be discontin- usage. stamps in denominations of Rs 2, ly.
ensures that employees remain agile and open to new ideas and meth- ued unless they are sponsored. The BEEN MISUSED. Miniature sheets, being collectible Rs 10, and Rs 50 could replace Revamping the Postal Ecosystem
ods. Remember, a workforce with high workplace intelligence is more introduction of sponsored Meghdoot REPORTS items, should be priced higher than postal orders for fees under the RTI for Sustainability
likely to generate creative solutions and drive innovation. Employees are postcards priced at Re1 and printed post- the face value of the stamps they Act, streamlining the payment India Post’s transformation should
more likely to stay in organisations where they feel valued, supported,
cards priced at Rs10 could ensure a sus- INDICATE contain. Such measures could not process. This approach aligns with emphasise efficiency, innovation,
tainable revenue model. Similarly, the tar- only enhance revenue through recommendations from the and customer-centricity.
and empowered. Today, companies such as Heineken, Cooley, Cruise iff for registered newspapers could be INSTANCES OF philately but also rekindle public Central Information Commission Rationalising tariffs, eliminating
Automation, Urban Company, Amazon, Chipotle and many more are known rationalised to Rs1, reflecting the interest in postal services. and addresses the issue of unfea- wasteful subsidies, and leveraging
for fostering workplace intelligence to attract top talent and build trust increased cost of inputs for small news-
NOTORIOUS Replacing “My-Stamp” with sible copying charges below Rs10 sponsored services are crucial
with stakeholders. paper production. INDIVIDUALS Sponsored Stamps due to the absence of lower- steps toward financial sustainabil-
By investing in the development of workplace intelligence, organisations Additionally, while normal postal services The “My-Stamp” initiative, which denomination postal orders. ity. Additionally, addressing oper-
can create environments that promote collaboration, innovation, and sus- are exempt from GST, applying GST on OBTAINING allows individuals to print person- Managing Inoperative and ational inefficiencies and improv-
premium services like Speed Post is STAMPS WITH al images on postage stamps, has Matured Accounts ing service delivery will help India
tainable success, ensuring they remain agile and competitive in an ever- counterproductive. It results in a redun- been misused. Reports indicate Unclaimed deposits in post office Post reclaim its position as a trust-
evolving world. As organisations continue to navigate the complexities dant transfer of funds between govern- THEIR PHOTOS, instances of notorious individuals accounts often remain unnoticed ed and competitive communica-
of globalisation and digital transformation, the importance of workplace ment departments. Rationalising tariffs obtaining stamps with their pho- due to deceased account holders tion medium.
intelligence will only grow. Artificial intelligence, remote work and diverse for Speed Post to Rs 20 or Rs 30 per 50- TARNISHING THE tos, tarnishing the program’s cred- failing to inform legal heirs. This By embracing these changes, India
teams are shaping new paradigms that demand a more nuanced under- gram weight slabs and aligning other PROGRAM’S ibility. Since no robust mechanism creates a risk of fraud, as unscrupu- Post can not only secure its finan-
standing of interpersonal and technological dynamics but organisations domestic and international postal tariffs exists to screen applicants’ back- lous individuals may attempt to cial future but also continue serv-
that invest in fostering workplace intelligence will gain a competitive edge, in multiples of Rs 10 would streamline CREDIBILITY grounds, the programme is suscep- claim such funds in collusion with ing as a cornerstone of India’s com-
the system and reduce inefficiencies. tible to abuse. Discontinuing the postal employees. To mitigate this munication network.
as their employees will be better equipped to adapt, innovate, and lead International postal rates could follow a “My-Stamp” concept in favor of risk, the Postal Department should (The writer is a Guinness World
in an ever-changing world. consistent structure, with uniform tariff sponsored stamps could address send registered letters to account Record holder and RTI
(The writer is an educator; views are personal) increases per weight slab for air and sur- this issue. Sponsored stamps would holders who have not operated Consultant; views are personal)

India’s math geniuses shine bright in international math competition 2024


India, a nation with a rich legacy of mathematical brilliance, added another feather to its cap by triumphing at the UCMAS International Competition 2024
ndia has long been a land tal prowess in solving a very the importance of such initia- self-confidence. trained instructors, working UCMAS International

I of great mathematicians,
from Aryabhata to
Ramanujan to Bhaskara, each
large number of mathematics
problems in the quickest pos-
sible time to win the awards.
tives and said, “UCMAS is
enhancing cognitive skills and
academic excellence.” The
According to Dr Snehal Karia,
CEO of UCMAS India, the
course is designed to enhance
through specially designed
books and activities. Unlike
conventional education, the
Corporation, said, “The com-
petition not only tests their
skills but also serves as a plat-
leaving an indelible mark on This landmark event reaf- blend of the ancient tool of the children’s mental stability by course serves as a supple- form to demonstrate their
the world with their mathe- firms its global significance in Abacus with modern teaching boosting their concentration, mentary learning system to creativity, visual memory, and
matical ingenuity. Today, India nurturing young minds in methodologies creates a focus, and memory. It equips enhance cognitive abilities. focus—all of which will shape
continues to excel in the field, mathematics. unique educational experi- them with the confidence to There is an urgent need to their future success.”The com-
as evidenced by its stellar per- The competition aimed at ence. understand and embrace their complement the school’s cur- petition itself is a testament to
formance at the Universal promoting brain development, Over 3 million children across individuality, effectively reduc- riculum by focusing on brain the transformative power of
Concept of Mental Arithmetic SARIKA JHA
enhancing cognitive skills, the world have benefited from ing anxiety and depression. development. The course such programs, where stu-
System (UCMAS) and demonstrating the incred- the Abacus and Mental The Abacus & Mental improves memory, sharpness, dents not only test their math
International Competition utes, relying solely on the ible abilities students can Arithmetic curriculum, which Arithmetic program’s key lies and alertness. skills but also demonstrate the
2024 in New Delhi, where the Abacus or mental math tech- achieve through Abacus and encourages creativity, visual- it drives students to take in its structured approach to As a result, students perform broader cognitive benefits that
country bagged both the high- niques—a feat that truly felt Mental Arithmetic. Presenting isation, and focus while devel- extreme steps, as seen in building self-assurance better academically and shape their academic and per-
est individual and team tro- like magic. For the second the trophies to top performers, oping strong arithmetic abil- recent reports from Rajasthan’s through innovative teaching approach challenges with sonal growth.
phies. time, the World’s Largest former Union Minister ities. Kota district—a hub for com- methods. greater confidence. In a world Ultimately, the world needs
The competition, the world’s Abacus & Mental Arithmetic Meenakshi Lekhi rightly said, In today’s competitive acade- petitive exam preparations. The encouragement and skills where competition often over- such initiatives to nurture
largest event for Abacus and Event- UCMAS International “Smart brain produces smart mic environment, maintaining However, innovative educa- imparted during the training shadows creativity and self- well-rounded individuals who
Mental Arithmetic, brought Competition 2024 was held in solutions for every problem mental wellbeing has become tional programmes like the play a pivotal role in shaping worth, programs like Abacus are prepared to face the chal-
together over 6,000 students India at the Delhi University and prosperity is moving for- an uphill battle for many chil- Abacus and Mental a child’s bright future. The pro- & Mental Arithmetic provide lenges of the future with con-
from nearly 30 countries. Multipurpose Hall. ward only when we have dren. The relentless pressure Arithmetic course are emerg- gram comprises eight levels, children with the tools they fidence and creativity.
Participants faced the chal- Students from across the smart brains.” Commending to excel often leads to stress, ing as a ray of hope, helping each lasting three to four need to thrive—mentally, (The author is a senior jour-
lenge of solving 200 arithmetic world competed with each the efforts of the young par- anxiety, and even depression. children manage stress while months. Children attend emotionally, and academical- nalist. The views expressed
questions in just eight min other showcasing their men- ticipants, Lekhi emphasised In some heartbreaking cases, fostering mental stability and weekly classes guided by ly. Alexan Wong, CEO of are personal)

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