Alpha Strategist | ‘Goldilocks & Three Bears’

Contents
Executive Summary ………………………………………………………………...................................….…...........03
Asset Class Performance......…................................................................................................04-05
Long Term Investing............….................................................................................................06-08
Simple Investing Insights............…..........................................................................................09-10
Deep Dive - The Current Crisis in Bangladesh: Implications for Global Supply Chains and India... ....11-13
Section I……………………………………………………………….......................................................………..14-24
(Market through Graphs, Portfolio Commentary, Temperature Gauge, Risk Return Matrix,
Our Recommendations, Investment Grid)
Section II…………………………………………………….......................................................….……………...25-40
(Macro Economy, Equities, Fixed Income, Gold)
Section III…………………………………………………….........................................................….….……….41-49
(Advisory Approach, 4C Manager Selection Framework, Hind-sight Investing, Decoding Investment
Style, Estate Planning
Section IV…………………………………………………….........................................................…….….…….50-69
(Managed Strategies - PMS & AIF, Managed Strategies - MF, Client Onboarding Checklist, Investment
Charter Template, Readers Speak)

SEPTEMBER 2024 | ISSUE 141 2

Our company name has changed to Motilal Oswal Wealth Ltd formerly known as Motilal Oswal Wealth Management Ltd.
This document is not valid without disclosure; refer the last page for the disclosure
 Alpha Strategist | ‘Goldilocks & Three Bears’

Executive Summary
An economy goes through four phases viz. slowdown, recovery, stability or goldilocks, and
expansion. These phases are defined using various macro-variables, the most important being
GDP growth, inflation, twin deficit (combination of fiscal deficit & current account deficit) as a %
to GDP, along with currency movement, forex reserves, and interest rates. A goldilocks economy
is characterised by GDP growing at a steady rate without expanding or contracting by a large
margin, controlled inflation and twin deficit which is neither too high nor too low. India is
currently experiencing a goldilocks phase. In this edition of “Goldilocks & Three Bears” we explore
how India's economy & equity market are well positioned in the face of three risks viz. global events,
valuations, and inflation.

In the last decade, India's economy has witnessed all phases. In FY13, India was considered a fragile economy due to low
GDP growth of 5.5%, high inflation at 10%, and alarming twin deficit at ~10% of GDP. By FY17, the economy has not just
recovered but was also in an expansion phase with GDP growth at 8%, Inflation at ~5%, and twin deficit at ~4%.
Subsequently, the economy went into a slowdown post the NBFC crisis in 2018-19 and hit a trough during the pandemic
in FY21. Post recovery and a phase of stability over the last couple of years, the economy is now in a Goldilocks phase
where GDP growth is 7%, Inflation is a reasonable 4.5%, and twin deficit is well managed at ~6% of GDP.

India's forex reserves have steadily risen over the last couple of years and are at a high of USD 680 bn. A well-managed
current account during this period has ensured that the INR has also remained stable in a narrow range.

Along with the economy, the domestic equity market has remained quite resilient during global events. While corporate
earnings have been the major driver for stock market performance over the last three years, the other key driver has been
domestic institutional investors (DIIs). Post CY21 till date, the net inflows from DIIs has been ~USD 90 bn, nearly 10x the
inflows from foreign institutional investors (FIIs) during the same period. Retail participation and Financialization of
Savings are structural megatrends which are likely to support domestic equities over the next several years.

In terms of valuations Large Caps remain fairly valued while Mid & Small caps on aggregate are relatively far more
expensive. However, in terms of earnings growth expectation over the next couple of years, consensus estimates suggest
higher growth for Mid & Small caps over large caps. Sector rotation is likely to continue. We suggest adopting a staggered
investment approach over 3-6 months for Large cap & Multicap strategies. For select Mid & Small cap strategies,
investments should be staggered over the next 6-12 months.

Global Inflation has been trending lower over the last year and India has experienced a similar trend. Domestic consumer
price inflation (CPI) is at its lowest level in the last four years.

The US Fed's projections suggest that US interest rates should trend lower starting later this year. The RBI has been
watchful of the US Fed's policy stance and is expected to commence the rate cut cycle next year. On the back of favourable
demand-supply dynamics and well contained inflation, the yield curve has started to gradually steepen. For incremental
investments in fixed income portfolios, we suggest that 30% should be invested in actively & passively managed duration
funds, 30-35% should be allocated to conservative Multi Asset Allocation funds, and 30-35% can be invested in a
combination of Private Credit strategies, REITs, InVITs and select high yield NCDs.

Gold is an important asset class during times of heightened volatility and should be considered for strategic portfolio
allocation.

Happy Investing!

Ashish Shanker
(MD & CEO – Motilal Oswal Wealth Limited)

SEPTEMBER 2024 | ISSUE 141 3

 Alpha Strategist | ‘Goldilocks & Three Bears’

Asset Class Performance

INR 100 invested in 1990 would have become x times by August 2024
Standard Maximum 99x
Asset Class CAGR
Deviaon Drawdown
Equity – IND 14.2% 26.9% -55.1% 78x
Equity – US (INR) 13.4% 15.2% -45.9%
Gold - INR 10.3% 14.7% -25.1%
Debt 8.3% 2.6% -6.3%
Cash 7.0% 0.6% 0.0%
Note: CAGR Represents Compounded Annual Growth Rate; SD is calculated based 30x
on monthly returns

16x

11x
Jan-1990

Jun-1991

Jul-1993

Dec-1994
Sep-1995

Jan-1997

Jun-1998

Jul-2000

Dec-2001
Aug-2002

Jan-2004
Sep-2004
Jun-2005

Jul-2007

Dec-2008
Aug-2009

Jan-2011
Sep-2011
Jun-2012

Jul-2014

Dec-2015
Aug-2016

Jan-2018
Sep-2018

Jul-2021

Aug-2023
Feb-1999

Feb-2006

Feb-2013

Feb-2020
Nov-1992

Nov-1999

Nov-2006

Nov-2022
Oct-1990

Mar-1992

Apr-1994

Oct-1997

Apr-2001

Mar-2008

Oct-2013

Mar-2015

Apr-2017

Oct-2020

Mar-2022

Apr-2024
May-1996

May-2003

May-2010

May-2019
st st
Period of Analysis is from 1 Jan 1990 to 31 Aug’24. Indices used: Equity IND is represented by Sensex from 1990 to 2002 and Nifty 50 from 2002 onwards Debt is represented by SBI 1-yr FD rates from
1990 to 2002 and CRISIL Composite bond Index from 2002 onwards Liquid/Cash is represented by SBI 3-month FD rates from 1990 to 2002 and CRISIL Liquid fund Index from 2002 onwards; Gold is
represented by Gold USD Spot Price conversion into INR from 1990 to 2005 and MCX Spot Gold price in INR from 2006 till date; Equity US is Represented by S&P500 in INR: Source: AceMF; Bloomberg.
Disclaimer: Past Performance is no guarantee of future Results

Asset Classes Perform Differently Over Market Cycles

1993 1994 1995 1996 CAGR 2001 2002 2003 2004 CAGR
Equity-IND Equity-IND Equity-US Equity-US Equity-US Debt Gold Equity-IND Equity-IND Equity-IND
27.9% 17.4% 50.4% 22.6% 20.4% 8.5% 24.1% 71.9% 10.7% 12.5%
Gold Debt Gold Debt Debt Cash Debt Equity-US Cash Gold
27.1% 13.0% 13.3% 12.0% 12.5% 6.4% 12.7% 20.2% 4.0% 10.7%
Equity-US Cash Debt Cash Cash Gold Cash Gold Equity-US Debt
16.5% 7.0% 13.0% 9.4% 8.9% 5.9% 6.4% 13.5% 3.8% 7.1%
Debt Equity-US Cash Equity-IND Gold Equity-US Equity-IND Debt Gold Cash
12.0% -1.9% 8.8% -0.8% 8.0% -10.1% 2.7% 8.1% 0.5% 5.4%
Cash Gold Equity-IND Gold Equity-IND Equity-IND Equity-US Cash Debt Equity-US
10.3% -2.3% -20.8% -3.2% 4.2% -17.9% -23.8% 4.6% -0.3% -3.8%

2018 2019 2020 2021 CAGR

Gold Equity-US Gold Equity-US
In Invesng, every asset class are cyclical in nature
Equity-US
7.3% 31.9% 28.0% 29.1% 18.4%
influenced by macro/micro factors
Cash Gold Equity-US Equity-IND
Hence, Winners keep Changing
Equity-IND
7.6% 23.8% 18.3% 24.1% 16.2%
For 2021 Returns are consider ll 31st Dec’21. Equity-IND is represented by Sensex from
Debt Equity-IND Equity-IND Cash Gold 1990 to 2002 & Niy 50 from 2002 onwards; Debt is represented by SBI 1-yr FD rates
from 1990 to 2002 & CRISIL Composite Bond Fund Index from 2002 onwards; Cash is
5.9% 12.0% 14.9% 3.6% 11.5% represented by SBI 3-month FD rates from 1990 to 2002 & CRISIL Liquid Fund Index from
2002 onwards; Gold is represented by Gold USD Spot Price conversion into INR from
Equity-IND Debt Debt Debt Debt 1990 to 2005 and MCX Spot Gold price in INR from 2006 ll date Equity-US is
3.2% 10.7% 12.3% 3.4% 7.4% represented by S&P 500 in INR terms;
Period Considered for CAGR analysisis 4 & 5 years
Equity-US Cash Cash Gold Cash Source : AceMF, Bloomberg,2021 performancell 31st Dec.
Disclaimer :Past Performance is no guarantee of future Results
2.4% 6.9% 4.6% - 4.2% 5.8%

Exhibit Low Correlation to Each Other

Correlation Equity - IND Equity – USA Gold (INR) Debt Cash
(INR)

Equity - IND 1.00

Equity – USA (INR) 0.26 1.00

Gold (INR) - 0.04 0.03 1.00

Debt 0.10 - 0.03 - 0.06 1.00

Cash - 0.03 0.02 - 0.04 0.33 1.00

st
Period of Analysis is from 1990 to 31 Aug’24. Indices used: Equity is represented by Sensex from 1990 to 2002 and Nifty 50 from 2002 onwards Debt is represented by SBI 1-yr FD rates from 1990 to 2002
and CRISIL Composite bond Index from 2002 onwards Liquid/Cash is represented by SBI 3-month FD rates from 1990 to 2002 and CRISIL Liquid fund Index from 2002 onwards; Gold is represented by Gold
USD Spot Price conversion into INR from 1990 to 2005 and MCX Spot Gold price in INR from 2006 till date; Equity US is represented by S&P 500 in INR terms
Average: Source: AceMF; Bloomberg. Disclaimer :Past Performance is no guarantee of future Results

SEPTEMBER 2024 | ISSUE 141 4

 Alpha Strategist | ‘Goldilocks & Three Bears’

Long Term Asset Combinations Performance – 3Y Rolling Returns

Equal Weighted 25% Equies & 75% 50% Equies & 50% 75% Equites & 25%
Asset Class Equity-IND Equity-US Debt Cash Gold
Porolio Debt Debt Debt

CAGR from 1990 to 2024* 14.2% 13.4% 8.3% 7.0% 10.2% 11.5% 10.4% 12.2% 13.4%
Standard Deviaon 26.7% 15.1% 2.6% 0.6% 14.7% 7.8% 7.6% 14.1% 20.4%
Maximum Drawdown** -55.1% -43.2% -6.3% 0.0% -23.4% -10.6% -12.1% -26.1% -40.6%
Minimum Returns- 3Y Rolling -15.7% -14.9% 2.4% 4.4% -7.3% -1.0% 3.1% -3.2% -9.5%
Average Returns - 3Y Rolling 12.9% 13.4% 8.3% 7.0% 10.3% 11.0% 10.1% 11.4% 12.4%
Maximum Returns- 3Y Rolling 59.6% 41.1% 12.7% 10.6% 32.2% 27.1% 22.8% 34.9% 47.2%
Posive Observaons (%)- 3Y Rolling 85.8% 83.2% 100.0% 100.0% 85.0% 99.2% 100.0% 96.9% 93.7%
Returns Distribuon (3Y Rolling Returns) % Observaons
-20% to -10% 3% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
-10% to 0% 11% 13% 0% 0% 15% 1% 0% 3% 6%
0% to 6% 19% 9% 21% 29% 19% 8% 6% 13% 22%
6% to 10% 14% 8% 52% 66% 15% 31% 52% 29% 17%
10% to 15% 19% 24% 27% 5% 21% 50% 35% 34% 28%
15% to 20% 10% 15% 0% 0% 14% 5% 6% 9% 10%
20% to 30% 9% 15% 0% 0% 16% 5% 2% 10% 9%
Above 30% 14% 12% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% 9%
*CAGR is for period 1990 to 31st Aug 2024. Equity-IND is represented by Sensex from 1990 to 2002 and Nifty 50 from 2002 onwards; Debt is represented by SBI 1-yr FD rates from 1990 to 2002 and CRISIL Composite
bond Index from 2002 onwards; Cash is represented by SBI 3-month FD rates from 1990 to 2002 and CRISIL Liquid fund Index from 2002 onwards; Gold is represented by gold spot price in INR terms. Equity-US is
represented by S&P 500 in INR terms; Source: AceMF; Bloomberg
** Maximum Drawdowns are based on absolute returns and the period considered is from CY2000 onwards

Disclaimer :Past Performance is no guarantee of future Results

SEPTEMBER 2024 | ISSUE 141 5

 Alpha Strategist | ‘Goldilocks & Three Bears’

Long Term Investing

It is common knowledge that investments, when given time to grow, have a much higher chance of reaching their full
potential. One of the most successful and well known investors, Peter Lynch, once mentioned “You get recessions, you
have stock market declines, if you don't understand that's going to happen, then you're not ready, you won't do well in
the markets”. Even though these scenarios mentioned are known to investors, why are they not able to ride through the
cycle? The problem arises when personal capital is invested, as it is simple human nature to notice every small
turbulence that depletes one's capital. Initially an investor may be able to comprehend the situation, but when the bear
market last months or even years, portfolio profits and even capital begin to erode. This is when for most investors,
patience begins to wear thin and fear sets in. In such a mindset, investors end up making impulsive decisions that are
solely based on emotions without realizing that they are doing themselves more harm than good. Therefore we believe
that the key ingredient to healthy investment portfolios is to have a long term vision.
The most common question that then arises is: how long is long term? When it comes to computation of tax on capital
gains, long term is considered as a holding period of one year for equities and a period of three years for debt
instruments. However, from an investment perspective one year is considered as a very short period of time since
volatility can be very high and the investor could suffer losses. The fundamental reason for investing for a long period of
time is to deal with volatility, which can never be predicted. This is why many successful managers strongly believe in the
philosophy of 'Time in the market' as opposed to 'Timing the Market'. In hindsight, even if the entry point might have
been wrong, positive returns can still be made by patiently holding onto the investments and benefitting from the
subsequent rally. Some managers even try to improve their returns by increasing their investments in periods which are
negative or low return phases.
To understand the truth behind these statements, we conducted a small study that tracked the journey of the Nifty 50
Index and two actively managed funds in the last 29 years. We assumed 29 separate investments in each of the funds at
the start of every calendar year. The study yielded some very fascinating discoveries of the equity markets.
Niy 50
Years Yr 1 Yr 2 Yr 3 Yr 4 Yr 5 Yr 6 Yr 7 Yr 8 Yr 9 Yr 10 Yr 11 Yr 12 Yr 13 Yr 14 Yr 15 Yr 16 Yr 17 Yr 18 Yr 19 Yr 20 Yr 21 Yr 22 Yr 23 Yr 24 Yr 25 Yr 26 Yr 27 Yr 28 Yr 29 Yr 30 Value (x)
1995 -23% -13% -3% -7% 5% 1% -2% -1% 5% 6% 8% 11% 14% 7% 10% 11% 8% 9% 9% 10% 9% 9% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 11% 11% 21
1996 -1% 9% -1% 13% 7% 3% 3% 10% 10% 12% 14% 17% 10% 13% 14% 11% 12% 11% 12% 11% 11% 12% 11% 11% 12% 12% 12% 12% 28
1997 20% -1% 18% 9% 3% 3% 11% 11% 14% 16% 19% 10% 14% 15% 12% 12% 12% 13% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 13% 12% 13% 28
1998 -18% 17% 5% 0% 0% 10% 10% 13% 16% 19% 10% 14% 14% 11% 12% 12% 13% 12% 11% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 23
1999 67% 20% 6% 5% 16% 15% 18% 21% 24% 13% 17% 18% 14% 15% 14% 15% 14% 13% 14% 13% 13% 13% 14% 13% 14% 29
2000 -15% -15% -10% 6% 7% 11% 15% 19% 8% 13% 14% 10% 11% 11% 12% 11% 11% 12% 11% 11% 11% 12% 12% 12% 17
2001 -16% -7% 14% 13% 18% 21% 25% 11% 17% 17% 13% 14% 13% 14% 13% 12% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 20
2002 3% 33% 25% 28% 30% 34% 16% 22% 22% 16% 17% 16% 17% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 14% 15% 24
2003 72% 38% 37% 38% 41% 18% 25% 24% 17% 18% 17% 18% 16% 15% 16% 15% 15% 15% 16% 15% 15% 23
2004 11% 23% 28% 34% 9% 18% 18% 12% 14% 13% 14% 13% 12% 13% 12% 12% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13
2005 36% 38% 43% 9% 20% 20% 12% 14% 13% 15% 13% 12% 13% 13% 12% 13% 13% 13% 13% 14% 12
2006 40% 47% 1% 16% 17% 8% 11% 10% 13% 11% 10% 12% 11% 11% 11% 12% 12% 12% 12% 9
2007 55% -14% 9% 12% 3% 7% 7% 10% 8% 8% 9% 9% 9% 9% 10% 10% 11% 11% 6
2008 -52% -8% 0% -7% -1% 0% 4% 3% 3% 6% 5% 6% 7% 8% 7% 8% 9% 4
2009 76% 44% 16% 19% 16% 19% 15% 14% 15% 14% 14% 14% 15% 14% 14% 15% 9
2010 18% -6% 4% 5% 10% 7% 7% 9% 9% 9% 9% 11% 10% 11% 11% 5
2011 -25% -2% 1% 8% 5% 5% 8% 7% 8% 9% 10% 9% 10% 11% 4
2012 28% 17% 21% 14% 12% 15% 13% 13% 13% 14% 13% 14% 14% 5
2013 7% 18% 10% 9% 12% 11% 11% 11% 13% 12% 13% 13% 4
2014 31% 12% 9% 14% 11% 12% 12% 13% 12% 13% 14% 4
2015 -4% -1% 8% 7% 8% 9% 11% 10% 11% 12% 3
2016 3% 15% 11% 11% 12% 14% 12% 13% 14% 3
2017 29% 15% 14% 14% 16% 14% 15% 16% 3
2018 3% 7% 10% 13% 11% 13% 14% 2
2019 12% 13% 17% 14% 15% 16% 2
2020 15% 19% 14% 16% 17% 2
2021 24% 14% 16% 17% 2
2022 4% 12% 15% 1
2023 20% 1
2024 16% 1
Total Observaons 30 28 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 1
Average 14% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 13% 13% 13% 13% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 13% 13% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 11% 11% 11%
No of Posive Observaons 22 19 24 24 25 25 23 22 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 1
% of Posive Observaons 73% 68% 86% 89% 96% 100% 96% 96% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Disclaimer: Past performance may or may not be sustained in future, *2024 returns are till end of Aug’24
SEPTEMBER 2024 | ISSUE 141 6
 Alpha Strategist | ‘Goldilocks & Three Bears’

NIFTY 500
Years Yr 1 Yr 2 Yr 3 Yr 4 Yr 5 Yr 6 Yr 7 Yr 8 Yr 9 Yr 10 Yr 11 Yr 12 Yr 13 Yr 14 Yr 15 Yr 16 Yr 17 Yr 18 Yr 19 Yr 20 Yr 21 Yr 22 Yr 23 Yr 24 Yr 25 Yr 26 Yr 27 Yr 28 Yr 29 Value (x)
1996 -8% 2% -2% 17% 7% 1% 3% 11% 12% 14% 16% 19% 10% 15% 15% 11% 12% 12% 13% 12% 12% 13% 12% 12% 12% 13% 12% 13% 13% 37
1997 12% 1% 27% 11% 3% 4% 14% 15% 17% 19% 22% 12% 17% 16% 13% 14% 13% 14% 14% 13% 14% 13% 13% 13% 14% 13% 14% 40
1998 -9% 34% 11% 1% 3% 15% 15% 18% 19% 23% 12% 17% 17% 13% 14% 13% 15% 14% 13% 14% 13% 13% 13% 14% 13% 14% 36
1999 98% 22% 5% 6% 20% 20% 22% 23% 27% 14% 20% 19% 15% 16% 15% 16% 15% 15% 16% 15% 14% 14% 15% 14% 15% 39
2000 -24% -24% -14% 6% 8% 13% 15% 20% 7% 14% 14% 10% 11% 11% 12% 11% 11% 12% 11% 11% 11% 12% 12% 12% 20
2001 -23% -8% 19% 19% 22% 24% 29% 12% 19% 18% 13% 15% 14% 15% 14% 14% 15% 14% 13% 14% 14% 14% 14% 26
2002 10% 48% 37% 37% 36% 40% 18% 26% 24% 18% 19% 18% 19% 18% 17% 18% 16% 16% 16% 17% 16% 16% 34
2003 98% 53% 47% 44% 47% 20% 28% 26% 19% 20% 18% 20% 18% 17% 18% 17% 16% 16% 17% 16% 17% 31
2004 18% 27% 29% 37% 8% 19% 18% 11% 13% 12% 14% 13% 12% 14% 13% 12% 13% 14% 13% 14% 15
2005 36% 35% 44% 6% 19% 18% 10% 13% 12% 14% 13% 12% 14% 12% 12% 12% 13% 13% 13% 13
2006 34% 48% -2% 15% 15% 7% 10% 9% 12% 11% 10% 12% 11% 10% 11% 12% 11% 12% 10
2007 63% -17% 10% 11% 2% 6% 6% 9% 8% 8% 10% 9% 9% 9% 11% 10% 11% 7
2008 -57% -10% -3% -9% -2% -1% 3% 3% 3% 6% 5% 5% 6% 8% 7% 8% 4
2009 89% 47% 16% 20% 16% 20% 17% 15% 17% 15% 14% 14% 16% 15% 15% 16% 10
2010 14% -9% 3% 3% 9% 8% 7% 10% 9% 9% 9% 11% 10% 11% 12% 5
2011 -27% -2% 0% 8% 6% 6% 10% 8% 8% 9% 11% 10% 11% 12% 5
2012 32% 17% 23% 17% 14% 18% 14% 13% 14% 15% 14% 15% 16% 7
2013 4% 19% 12% 10% 15% 12% 11% 12% 14% 13% 14% 15% 5
2014 38% 17% 12% 18% 13% 12% 13% 15% 14% 15% 16% 5
2015 -1% 2% 12% 8% 8% 9% 12% 11% 12% 14% 4
2016 4% 19% 11% 10% 11% 14% 13% 14% 16% 4
2017 36% 15% 12% 13% 17% 14% 16% 17% 3
2018 -3% 2% 7% 12% 10% 13% 15% 3
2019 8% 12% 18% 14% 16% 18% 3
2020 17% 23% 16% 18% 21% 2
2021 30% 16% 19% 22% 2
2022 3% 14% 2
2023 26% 29% 2
2024 22% 1
Total Observaons 29 28 26 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 1
Average 18% 15% 14% 14% 14% 14% 14% 14% 14% 14% 14% 14% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 14% 14% 14% 14% 14% 13% 13% 14% 13% 13% 13% 13%
No of Posive Observaons 21 22 21 25 24 23 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 1
% of Posive Observaons 72% 79% 81% 96% 96% 96% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Disclaimer: Past performance may or may not be sustained in future, *2024 returns are till end of Aug’24
NIFTY MIDCAP 150
Years Yr 1 Yr 2 Yr 3 Yr 4 Yr 5 Yr 6 Yr 7 Yr 8 Yr 9 Yr 10 Yr 11 Yr 12 Yr 13 Yr 14 Yr 15 Yr 16 Yr 17 Yr 18 Yr 19 Value (x)
2006 28% 50% -8% 13% 14% 5% 10% 8% 13% 12% 12% 15% 12% 11% 12% 14% 13% 15% 16% 16
2007 76% -22% 9% 11% 1% 7% 5% 11% 11% 10% 14% 11% 10% 11% 13% 13% 14% 15% 12
2008 -65% -15% -5% -13% -3% -3% 4% 4% 5% 9% 7% 6% 7% 10% 9% 11% 12% 7
2009 111% 58% 19% 25% 19% 25% 22% 20% 24% 19% 17% 18% 20% 19% 20% 21% 20
2010 18% -10% 5% 3% 13% 12% 11% 16% 12% 11% 12% 14% 13% 15% 17% 10
2011 -32% -1% -2% 11% 11% 10% 15% 11% 10% 11% 14% 13% 15% 16% 8
2012 44% 18% 31% 25% 21% 26% 19% 17% 17% 20% 18% 20% 22% 12
2013 -3% 25% 19% 15% 22% 16% 13% 14% 18% 16% 18% 20% 8
2014 60% 32% 22% 30% 20% 16% 17% 21% 18% 21% 22% 8
2015 8% 7% 21% 11% 9% 11% 16% 14% 17% 19% 5
2016 5% 28% 12% 9% 12% 17% 15% 18% 20% 5
2017 54% 16% 10% 13% 19% 17% 20% 22% 5
2018 -13% -7% 2% 12% 10% 15% 18% 3
2019 0% 11% 22% 17% 22% 24% 3
2020 24% 35% 23% 28% 31% 3
2021 47% 23% 30% 32% 3
2022 3% 22% 27% 2
2023 44% 44% 2
2024 28% 1
Total Observaons 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
Average 23% 17% 14% 15% 15% 14% 14% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 14% 14% 14% 15% 13% 15% 16%
No of Posive Observaons 14 13 14 15 14 13 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
% of Posive Observaons 74% 72% 82% 94% 93% 93% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Disclaimer: Past performance may or may not be sustained in future, *2024 returns are till end of Aug’24
NIFTY SMALLCAP 250
Years Yr 1 Yr 2 Yr 3 Yr 4 Yr 5 Yr 6 Yr 7 Yr 8 Yr 9 Yr 10 Yr 11 Yr 12 Yr 13 Yr 14 Yr 15 Yr 16 Yr 17 Yr 18 Yr 19 Value (x)
2006 31% 60% -8% 14% 14% 4% 8% 6% 12% 12% 10% 14% 10% 9% 10% 12% 11% 13% 14% 12
2007 95% -22% 9% 11% -1% 5% 3% 9% 10% 9% 12% 8% 7% 8% 11% 10% 12% 13% 9
2008 -69% -19% -8% -16% -7% -8% 1% 2% 2% 6% 3% 2% 3% 7% 6% 8% 10% 5
2009 114% 58% 17% 22% 15% 23% 21% 18% 22% 16% 13% 14% 17% 16% 18% 19% 15
2010 16% -14% 1% -1% 10% 10% 9% 14% 8% 6% 8% 12% 10% 13% 14% 7
2011 -36% -6% -7% 8% 9% 7% 13% 7% 5% 7% 11% 10% 13% 14% 6
2012 38% 13% 29% 24% 19% 25% 15% 12% 14% 18% 15% 18% 19% 9
2013 -8% 25% 20% 15% 22% 12% 9% 11% 16% 13% 16% 18% 7
2014 70% 37% 23% 31% 17% 12% 14% 19% 16% 19% 21% 7
2015 10% 5% 20% 6% 3% 7% 13% 11% 14% 16% 4
2016 0% 26% 5% 1% 6% 14% 11% 15% 17% 4
2017 57% 7% 2% 7% 16% 13% 17% 20% 4
2018 -27% -18% -6% 8% 5% 12% 15% 3
2019 -8% 7% 23% 15% 22% 24% 3
2020 25% 42% 25% 30% 33% 4
2021 62% 24% 32% 35% 3
2022 -4% 19% 26% 2
2023 49% 48% 2
2024 29% 1
Total Observaons 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
Average 23% 16% 12% 13% 12% 11% 11% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 11% 11% 12% 12% 11% 13% 14%
No of Posive Observaons 13 13 13 14 13 13 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
% of Posive Observaons 68% 72% 76% 88% 87% 93% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Disclaimer: Past performance may or may not be sustained in future, *2024 returns are till end of Aug’24

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 Alpha Strategist | ‘Goldilocks & Three Bears’

Franklin India Flexi Cap

Years Yr 1 Yr 2 Yr 3 Yr 4 Yr 5 Yr 6 Yr 7 Yr 8 Yr 9 Yr 10 Yr 11 Yr 12 Yr 13 Yr 14 Yr 15 Yr 16 Yr 17 Yr 18 Yr 19 Yr 20 Yr 21 Yr 22 Yr 23 Yr 24 Yr 25 Yr 26 Yr 27 Yr 28 Yr 29 Yr 30 Value (x)
1995 -23% -19% -10% 1% 26% 14% 11% 12% 20% 21% 23% 25% 27% 19% 22% 22% 19% 20% 19% 21% 20% 19% 20% 19% 18% 18% 19% 18% 18% 19% 172
1996 -16% -2% 10% 42% 23% 18% 18% 27% 27% 29% 30% 32% 23% 26% 26% 23% 23% 22% 24% 23% 22% 22% 21% 20% 20% 21% 20% 20% 222
1997 13% 26% 70% 35% 26% 25% 34% 33% 35% 36% 38% 27% 30% 29% 26% 26% 25% 26% 25% 24% 24% 23% 22% 22% 22% 22% 22% 264
1998 39% 108% 43% 29% 27% 38% 36% 38% 39% 40% 28% 32% 31% 27% 27% 25% 27% 26% 24% 25% 23% 22% 22% 23% 22% 22% 232
1999 209% 45% 26% 24% 38% 36% 37% 39% 41% 27% 31% 30% 26% 26% 24% 26% 25% 24% 24% 22% 21% 21% 22% 21% 22% 167
2000 -32% -20% -8% 12% 15% 20% 24% 27% 15% 20% 20% 17% 18% 17% 19% 18% 17% 18% 17% 16% 16% 17% 16% 17% 54
2001 -5% 6% 33% 31% 34% 37% 39% 23% 28% 27% 22% 23% 22% 24% 22% 21% 22% 20% 19% 19% 20% 19% 20% 79
2002 19% 57% 47% 47% 47% 49% 28% 33% 31% 26% 26% 24% 26% 25% 23% 24% 22% 21% 20% 21% 21% 21% 84
2003 107% 62% 57% 55% 55% 29% 35% 33% 26% 27% 25% 27% 25% 24% 24% 22% 21% 21% 22% 21% 21% 70
2004 27% 37% 41% 44% 18% 26% 25% 19% 20% 18% 21% 20% 19% 20% 18% 17% 17% 18% 17% 18% 34
2005 48% 48% 51% 16% 25% 24% 17% 19% 18% 21% 19% 18% 19% 17% 16% 16% 17% 17% 17% 18% 27
2006 49% 52% 7% 20% 20% 13% 15% 14% 18% 17% 16% 17% 15% 14% 14% 16% 15% 16% 17% 18
2007 55% -10% 12% 14% 7% 11% 10% 15% 14% 13% 14% 13% 12% 12% 14% 13% 14% 15% 12
2008 -48% -5% 3% -2% 3% 4% 10% 9% 9% 11% 9% 9% 9% 11% 11% 12% 13% 8
2009 73% 44% 20% 23% 19% 25% 22% 19% 21% 18% 16% 16% 18% 17% 18% 19% 15
2010 19% 0% 9% 8% 17% 15% 13% 15% 13% 12% 12% 14% 14% 15% 16% 9
2011 -16% 5% 5% 16% 14% 12% 15% 12% 11% 12% 14% 13% 14% 16% 7
2012 31% 18% 29% 23% 19% 21% 17% 15% 15% 17% 16% 17% 19% 9
2013 6% 29% 20% 16% 19% 15% 13% 13% 16% 15% 16% 18% 7
2014 57% 28% 20% 22% 17% 14% 14% 17% 16% 17% 19% 6
2015 4% 5% 13% 8% 7% 9% 13% 12% 14% 15% 4
2016 5% 17% 9% 8% 9% 14% 13% 15% 17% 4
2017 31% 12% 9% 11% 16% 14% 16% 18% 4
2018 -4% -1% 5% 13% 11% 14% 17% 3
2019 3% 9% 19% 15% 18% 21% 3
2020 16% 28% 20% 22% 25% 3
2021 40% 22% 25% 27% 2
2022 5% 17% 23% 2
2023 31% 2
2024 25% 1
Total Observaons 30 28 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 1
Average 26% 22% 22% 22% 21% 21% 20% 21% 21% 21% 21% 21% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 21% 21% 21% 20% 20% 21% 21% 20% 19% 18% 19%
No of Posive Observaons 23 21 26 26 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 1
% of Posive Observaons 77% 75% 93% 96% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Disclaimer: Past performance may or may not be sustained in future, *2024 returns are till end of Aug’24
HDFC Flexi Cap
Years Yr 1 Yr 2 Yr 3 Yr 4 Yr 5 Yr 6 Yr 7 Yr 8 Yr 9 Yr 10 Yr 11 Yr 12 Yr 13 Yr 14 Yr 15 Yr 16 Yr 17 Yr 18 Yr 19 Yr 20 Yr 21 Yr 22 Yr 23 Yr 24 Yr 25 Yr 26 Yr 27 Yr 28 Yr 29 Yr 30 Value (x)
1995 -29% -26% -13% -2% 19% 11% 9% 11% 20% 21% 24% 25% 27% 19% 23% 24% 20% 21% 20% 21% 20% 19% 20% 19% 18% 18% 18% 18% 19% 19% 189
1996 -23% -3% 9% 35% 22% 17% 18% 28% 28% 31% 32% 33% 24% 28% 28% 24% 24% 23% 25% 23% 22% 23% 22% 21% 20% 21% 21% 21% 266
1997 23% 30% 63% 36% 27% 27% 38% 37% 39% 39% 40% 29% 33% 33% 28% 28% 27% 28% 26% 25% 26% 24% 23% 23% 23% 23% 24% 348
1998 38% 88% 41% 29% 28% 41% 39% 41% 41% 42% 29% 34% 34% 28% 29% 27% 28% 26% 25% 26% 24% 23% 23% 23% 23% 24% 284
1999 156% 43% 26% 25% 41% 39% 42% 41% 42% 28% 34% 34% 28% 28% 26% 28% 26% 25% 25% 24% 23% 22% 22% 22% 23% 206
2000 -20% -12% -1% 22% 23% 29% 30% 32% 19% 26% 26% 20% 21% 20% 22% 20% 19% 20% 19% 18% 18% 18% 18% 19% 80
2001 -3% 10% 40% 37% 41% 41% 42% 25% 32% 32% 25% 26% 24% 26% 23% 22% 23% 22% 21% 20% 21% 21% 21% 100
2002 24% 68% 53% 55% 51% 52% 30% 37% 36% 28% 29% 26% 28% 26% 24% 25% 23% 22% 21% 22% 22% 23% 103
2003 126% 70% 67% 59% 58% 30% 39% 38% 29% 29% 27% 29% 26% 24% 25% 23% 22% 21% 22% 22% 23% 83
2004 28% 44% 41% 44% 17% 28% 29% 20% 21% 19% 22% 20% 19% 20% 18% 17% 17% 18% 18% 19% 37
2005 63% 49% 50% 14% 29% 29% 19% 21% 19% 22% 19% 18% 19% 18% 17% 16% 17% 17% 18% 19% 29
2006 36% 44% 2% 21% 23% 13% 16% 14% 18% 15% 15% 16% 15% 14% 14% 15% 15% 16% 17% 18
2007 54% -12% 17% 20% 9% 12% 11% 16% 13% 13% 15% 13% 13% 12% 14% 14% 15% 16% 13
2008 -50% 2% 10% -1% 6% 5% 11% 9% 9% 11% 10% 10% 9% 11% 12% 13% 14% 8
2009 106% 63% 25% 27% 22% 27% 22% 20% 22% 19% 18% 17% 18% 18% 20% 20% 17
2010 29% -3% 8% 7% 15% 12% 11% 14% 12% 11% 11% 13% 13% 15% 15% 8
2011 -27% -1% 1% 12% 8% 8% 12% 10% 9% 9% 11% 12% 14% 14% 6
2012 34% 18% 29% 19% 17% 20% 16% 15% 14% 16% 16% 18% 19% 9
2013 4% 26% 15% 13% 17% 14% 13% 12% 14% 15% 17% 17% 6
2014 54% 21% 16% 21% 16% 14% 13% 16% 16% 18% 19% 6
2015 -5% 1% 12% 8% 8% 7% 11% 12% 15% 16% 4
2016 7% 21% 12% 11% 10% 14% 15% 18% 18% 4
2017 37% 15% 12% 11% 15% 16% 19% 20% 4
2018 -4% 2% 3% 11% 12% 16% 17% 3
2019 7% 7% 16% 16% 21% 21% 3
2020 6% 20% 20% 25% 25% 3
2021 36% 27% 32% 30% 3
2022 18% 29% 28% 2
2023 41% 2
2024 16% 1
Total Observaons 30 28 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 1
Average 26% 23% 23% 22% 22% 22% 22% 22% 22% 22% 22% 22% 21% 21% 21% 21% 21% 21% 21% 22% 22% 22% 21% 21% 22% 21% 21% 20% 19% 19%
No of Posive Observaons 22 22 26 25 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 1
% of Posive Observaons 73% 79% 93% 93% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Disclaimer: Past performance may or may not be sustained in future, *2024 returns are till end of Aug’24
In general, we noticed that negative or low return periods were perpetually followed by medium to high return periods.
This observation is a simple explanation for understanding that equity returns are nonlinear and tend to be bunched in
few years. Another important finding was that approximately 66.67% of the time one year absolute returns were
positive. In the case of active funds, there were some further motivating discoveries. In spite of having a poor entry
point and suffering negative returns in the first year, the active fund managers were successfully able to produce
positive annualized returns on a 5 year period and double digit returns on a 10 year period. The conclusion that we can
derive from this analysis is that compounding has a much larger effect on our investment returns than we realize and
that we should not get easily spooked by negative returns as they will fade with time.
When looking at these several data points, the bear markets appear to be like minor speed bumps in a consistent rally,
but this is a view in hindsight. When investors are in the thick of the fall, an atmosphere of doom gets created in the mind
and it becomes very hard go against the primary instinct of selling. For example, when the Nifty 50 Index crashed 52% in
CY08 only the very few investors who were able to hold their nerves and brave the storm benefitted from the 71% rally in
CY09. As Warren Buffet puts it, “The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient”.
SEPTEMBER 2024 | ISSUE 141 8
 Alpha Strategist | ‘Goldilocks & Three Bears’

Simple Investing Insights

Power of Compounding
Investment Amount Rate of compounding
Rs. 100
105.00 5% 7% 10% 13% 15% 20% 25%
1 105 107 110 113 115 120 125
3 116 123 133 144 152 173 195
5 128 140 161 184 201 249 305
7 141 161 195 235 266 358 477
10 163 197 259 339 405 619 931
No of 12 180 225 314 433 535 892 1,455
Years 15 208 276 418 625 814 1,541 2,842
20 265 387 673 1,152 1,637 3,834 8,674
25 339 543 1,083 2,123 3,292 9,540 26,470
30 432 761 1,745 3,912 6,621 23,738 80,779
35 552 1,068 2,810 7,207 13,318 59,067 2,46,519
40 704 1,497 4,526 13,278 26,786 1,46,977 7,52,316

• The above chart depicts how staying invested over longer periods of time leads to multifold returns
• It also shows how rate of compounding impacts the value of investments. For e.g. if an investment is held for 15 years,
the value of investment increases by 50% when the rate of return increases from 10% to 13%

Intra-year Corrections and Returns

Sensex ( 1990 to 2023) – CY Return vs. Drawdown
Highest Intra year Fall (%) CY Returns (%)

100 100

80 80

60 60

40 87 40
74 76
64
20 42 47 47 20
34 34 28 27 30 27
17 17 16 22 19
4
13
4 12 8 7 14
0 -10 -14 -13 -11 -13 -12 -5 2 -14 -10 -10 4 0
-17 -20 -17 -16 -21 -18 -15 -7 -16 -12 -4 -16 -7
-24 -21 -25
-20 -28 -27 -27 -29 -20
-34 -33 -35 -51
-26 -39 -41 -26 -38
-40 -47 -40
-60
-60 -60

-80 -80
1993

2003

2013

2023
1995

2005

2015
1991

1992

2001

2002

2011

2012

2021

2022
1999

2009

2019
1997

2007

2017
1996

1998

2006

2008

2016

2018
1990

2000

2010

2020
1994

2004

2014

Data as of 31st December’23

• Out of 33 years, while markets always had an interim decline, only in 7 years did the market end the year with
negative returns. In other words, for 26 out of 33 years, the markets ended in positive despite the temporary decline
in between.
• 10-20% Temporary drawdown is almost a given every year.

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 Alpha Strategist | ‘Goldilocks & Three Bears’

Chasing Performance Often Leads To Accidents

Comparison of rank based on consecuve 3 year period
2010-12 2013-15 2011-13 2014-16 2012-14 2015-17 2013-15 2016-18 2014-16 2017-19 2015-17 2018-20 2016-18 2019-21 2017-19 2020-22 2018-20 2021-23
1 123 1 172 1 20 1 38 1 223 1 132 1 77 1 250 1 122
2 122 2 202 2 4 2 47 2 35 2 222 2 49 2 248 2 108
3 9 3 196 3 16 3 218 3 144 3 204 3 189 3 249 3 97
4 66 4 79 4 1 4 205 4 18 4 189 4 199 4 255 4 149
5 161 5 115 5 17 5 139 5 217 5 232 5 16 5 244 5 111
6 11 6 34 6 6 6 11 6 45 6 201 6 134 6 260 6 190
7 24 7 4 7 115 7 58 7 225 7 31 7 90 7 139 7 208
8 119 8 58 8 7 8 217 8 226 8 233 8 124 8 160 8 211
9 168 9 42 9 49 9 166 9 112 9 192 9 50 9 265 9 216
10 43 10 200 10 59 10 143 10 182 10 200 10 101 10 254 10 218
11 112 11 59 11 33 11 228 11 134 11 84 11 31 11 256 11 90
12 184 12 198 12 38 12 131 12 205 12 228 12 192 12 102 12 214
13 22 13 49 13 24 13 221 13 124 13 180 13 200 13 93 13 187
14 71 14 77 14 67 14 90 14 155 14 162 14 100 14 238 14 34
15 20 15 5 15 152 15 163 15 83 15 235 15 161 15 96 15 197
16 7 16 150 16 15 16 32 16 42 16 76 16 188 16 253 16 112
17 21 17 17 17 105 17 112 17 180 17 118 17 129 17 190 17 121
18 128 18 18 18 103 18 77 18 220 18 236 18 11 18 20 18 192
19 4 19 39 19 47 19 103 19 222 19 216 19 25 19 230 19 191
20 29 20 128 20 27 20 195 20 175 20 220 20 159 20 155 20 194
21 79 21 82 21 68 21 69 21 154 21 142 21 193 21 167 21 220
22 31 22 163 22 167 22 71 22 224 22 184 22 119 22 147 22 115
23 169 23 191 23 35 23 87 23 174 23 115 23 198 23 136 23 204
24 47 24 184 24 70 24 153 24 127 24 147 24 80 24 205 24 162
25 14 25 21 25 74 25 124 25 166 25 17 25 35 25 189 25 160
Number of Funds
174 196 184 202 190 211 196 229 202 230 211 239 204 222 213 268 181 220
Rank Correlaon
0.29 -0.04 0.49 0.06 -0.19 -0.41 0.05 -0.44 0.20
Source : MOPWM Research, ACE MF, Ranking based on 3 year CY CAGR performance of fund. ETFs and Index funds not taken in consideration for ranking

Jumping from one top performing fund to another may lead to risk of missing the opportunity of participating in long
term wealth creation

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 Alpha Strategist | ‘Goldilocks & Three Bears’

Deep Dive - The Current Crisis in Bangladesh: Implications for Global Supply Chains and India

Overview of the Current Crisis in Bangladesh

The political turmoil in Bangladesh has reached a critical juncture, marked by widespread protests and significant
governance challenges. As the world's second-largest exporter of textiles, Bangladesh's destabilization poses
implications for both local progress and international supply chains—especially for India.
Political Instability
The crisis primarily stems from escalating public discontent with Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's administration,
culminating in her resignation and the appointment of a military interim government. The civil unrest is driven by
several interrelated factors:
u Corruption: Transparency International's 2023 Corruption Perceptions Index places Bangladesh 147th out of 180
countries, evidencing significant public frustration over governance issues.
u Economic Hardships: Inflation rates in Bangladesh have soared, reaching 11.66% in July 2024. This spike is largely
driven by rising food and energy prices, which disproportionately impact lower-income households

Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics

u Social Inequality: The World Bank reports that 18.7% of Bangladeshis live below the national poverty line (World
Bank 2023). Disparities in wealth and opportunity have led marginalized groups to demand better representation
and rights.
Economic Ramifications
The political instability directly threatens Bangladesh's economy, which has grown at an average rate of 6-7% in recent
years. However, this growth is at risk as foreign investment declines due to the ongoing turmoil.
u Declining Foreign Investment: FDI inflows have dipped by 22% in the first half of 2024 compared to the previous
year, indicating a significant loss of investor confidence.
u Pressure on Exports: The garments sector, which constitutes 83% of Bangladesh's total exports, is vulnerable, with a
15% drop in textile exports over the last year

The Global Supply Chain Impact

Bangladesh's Position in Global Textiles
Bangladesh's status as a key player in the global textile industry cannot be overstated. The country exports
approximately $46 billion annually in garments and is the main supplier of textiles to major Western markets.
Bangladesh accounts for about 6.4% of global textile exports and is the second-largest exporter after China. Countries
like Germany and the United States import textiles worth $7.9 billion and $7.3 billion, respectively, each year from
Bangladesh.

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 Alpha Strategist | ‘Goldilocks & Three Bears’

Imports from Bangladesh

Source : Dun & Bradstreet HS Code 61: With knitted apparel & HS Code 62 non-knitted apparel

Disruptions in Textile Exports

The current crisis has led to factory closures, operational halts, and transportation difficulties, directly affecting
production capabilities. Possible outcomes for the global supply chain include:
u Increased Lead Times: Many brands are reporting delays in garment manufacturing. A survey by the Bangladesh
Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA) anticipates delivery delays due to labour strikes
and supply chain disruptions.
u Rising Costs: Prices for textiles could increase by as much as 10-15% over the next year if the crisis continues,
impacting retailers and consumers globally.
u Exploring Alternative Suppliers: Companies are increasingly looking to India, Vietnam, and Cambodia for
sourcing textiles as alternatives to Bangladesh.

The Impact on India

India and Bangladesh share a historically significant trading relationship, with India enjoying a trade surplus that peaked
at approximately $16.5 billion in the 2021-2022 fiscal year. India exports roughly ~2.18 billion dollars of cotton annually
to Bangladesh, making it a critical supplier for the country's textile manufacturing. The crisis may lead to a reduced
demand for Indian cotton, directly impacting Indian farmers and exporters.
Raw cotton (including waste), oil meals, and spices are the top three exports in the agriculture and allied products
category from India. Notably, Bangladesh serves as the primary destination for India's cotton exports, accounting for
over half of India's total raw cotton exports, valued at approximately USD 1.2 billion. Additionally, Bangladesh is India's
largest importer of oil meals, representing nearly 24% of India's total oil meals exports. In the spices sector, Bangladesh
ranks as the third-largest export destination for India after China and the USA.
As a result of the ongoing unrest in Bangladesh, these critical agricultural exports have come to a standstill. The major
exports within the manufacturing category include textiles (excluding readymade garments), engineering goods, and
chemicals and related products. Bangladesh plays a pivotal role as an exporter of readymade garments, a sector that has
gained prominence due to the China Plus One strategy. Currently, readymade garments account for approximately 85%
of Bangladesh's total exports, highlighting the country's reliance on imports of raw materials, such as yarn and fabrics,

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 Alpha Strategist | ‘Goldilocks & Three Bears’

INDIA’S IMPORTS OF READYMADE GARMENTS

FROM BANGLADESH
USD Million

Source : CMIE Economic Outlook

Conclusion
The political crisis in Bangladesh poses significant challenges to India's trade relations and economic interests. The
potential disruption of trade agreements, decreased export levels, and regional implications are areas of immediate
concern. Furthermore, while the instability presents risks, it may also offer openings for Indian manufacturers to adapt
and capture market opportunities if they can successfully respond to the conditions created by the crisis. As the
situation develops, sustained attention and a strategic response will be essential for India to navigate the evolving
landscape in its eastern neighbour.

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 Alpha Strategist | ‘Goldilocks & Three Bears’

Section I
Market through Graphs........................................................................................15

Portfolios Commentary.........................................................................................17

Temperature Gauge.............................................................................................18

Risk Return Matrix ...............................................................................................20

Our Recommendations.........................................................................................21

Investment Grid................................................................................................... 23

SEPTEMBER 2024 | ISSUE 141 14

This document is not valid without disclosure; refer the last page for the disclosure
 Alpha Strategist | ‘Goldilocks & Three Bears’

Market through Graphs

Equities
• Of the 100 large-caps today, 19 used to be mid-cap and
3 were small-cap.
• Of the 100 large-caps in 2014, 17 became mid-cap, 4
small-cap and 1 micro-cap.
• Of the 250 small-caps today - 4 were large, 35 were
mid, and 99 have come up from the micro-cap.
• Of the 250 small-caps in 2014 - 3 became large, 43
Disclaimer: The above graph is for informational purpose. became mid, and 92 fell to micro.
Past performance may or may not be sustained in future

Source: @theMihirV (on X)

Fixed Income
Trend in G-Sec Yield Curve
Movement in G - Sec Yields Across Maturies • Indian Gsecs are attractively poised given an
31-Aug-24 31-Mar-24 31-Oct-23

7.60 7.51
intersection of structural bullish factors for India and
7.50
7.50 peak of global interest rates
7.40 7.33 7.35 7.35

7.30
7.32 7.30
• Indian GSec Yield curve has shifted downwards and is
Yield (%)

7.20
7.09
7.12 gradually moving from a flat to a bull steepening curve
7.10 7.03
7.05 7.05 7.05

7.00
6.98
6.92
7.00
on back of favourable demand supply dynamics and
6.90
6.77
6.86
well-contained inflation
6.80 6.74 6.75 6.75

6.70 • The short term yields are softening more than long
1 Yr 2 Yr 3 Yr 5 Yr 10 Yr 15 Yr 30 Yr
term yields leading to increase in term spreads
Maturity in years
• We maintain our view w.r.t Duration bias in the fixed
Source : Investing.Com, Internal Research
income portfolio so as to capitalize on the likely
softening of yields in the next 1-2 years
Gold
Gold and Silver takes breather after sharp rally this year
• Gold and silver took a breather after gaining in the last
few months.
• Losses were capped after the Fed governor hinted at a
possible rate cut in September at the Jackson Hole
Symposium.
• On the domestic front, the possibility of a demand
spike during the festive season could boost market
sentiment.

Source: Reuters

Summary
View
Recommendations
Short Term Long Term
Stagger investments over 3 - 6 months for Large and Multi cap strategies
Equity Positive Positive
and over 6-12 months for select Mid and Small cap strategies.
Biased towards Multi Asset Funds Core allocation towards Actively and Passively managed
Debt Duration &
Multi Asset Funds debt strategies/Bonds and Multi Asset Allocation Funds.
Gold Positive Positive Sovereign Gold Bonds, Gold ETF/FoF

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 Alpha Strategist | ‘Goldilocks & Three Bears’

Portfolio Commentary
Tactical changes and strategies
¡ February 2013 –Reduced allocation to Gold by 25% and increased to Dynamic Bond Funds based on discussion in the Investment
Committee meeting
¡ April 2013 – Reduced further allocation to Gold by 25% and increased to Dynamic Bond Funds based on discussion in the
Investment Committee meeting
¡ May 2013 – Exited Gilt Fund's and moved to Short-term Funds (40%), Income Funds (40%) and Dynamic Bond Funds (20%) based
on the note released - “Yields came tumbling after…to plummet further”
¡ July 2013 – Exited Income Funds and other long duration investments and invested the redemption proceeds in Ultra Short-term
Funds based on the note released – “Ride the Tide”
¡ September 2013 – Cash allocation brought back to its strategic weight and invested the balance allocation into gilt funds based
on the note released – “The Gilt Edge”; Switched 15% of equity allocation to Information Technology (IT) sector funds from large
cap and multi cap funds, based on the note released – “Information Technology – In a position on strength”; Reduced 10% of
equity allocation and switched to ultra-short term funds based on the note released – “The Bear-nanke Hug– Underweight
Equities
¡ November 2013 – Switched 50% of Short-term Funds allocation to Gilt Funds, to increase duration of the portfolio, based on the
note released – “Time to Rebuild Duration –A Déjà vu”; Deployed Cash in Nifty ETFs, based on the note released – “Equity
Markets – An Update”
¡ December 2013 – Switched all cash positions to gilt funds, to further increase duration of the portfolio
¡ May 5, 2014 – Reduced allocation to Gilts and moved to Ultra Short term Funds to create liquidity in the portfolio; Switched
allocation from IT Sector Funds and Nifty ETFs to Infrastructure Funds and Small cap Funds respectively, based on the note
released – “Good Times Ahead!”
¡ September 2014 – Switched allocation from Cash to Gilt funds, to increase the duration of the portfolio based on the note “Way
Ahead for Duration”; Switched allocation from Small & Midcap funds to Large Cap funds, on the back of relatively higher
valuations of midcaps as compared to large cap; on the fundamental front, demand side continues to be supportive for gold. We
have thereby revised out short term outlook on gold from underweight to neutral stance
¡ February 2016 – Reduced Gilt exposure and allocated the proceeds towards Gold, on the back of better risk reward scenario for
gold & bond yields coming below it long term average
¡ April 2016 – Switched allocation from Duration strategies to Accrual strategies, based on the note released – “Time to Shift
Gears”
¡ May 2018 – In Fixed Income, we reiterate our stance on accrual strategy, however, given the current valuations, tactical allocation
to dynamic bond funds can be considered by investors who can withstand interest rate volatility; Increase allocation towards
value oriented multi-cap strategies
¡ November 2018 - Recommended arbitrage fund with minimum 6 months investment horizon; put a hold on long duration accrual
strategies; Focus on multi cap and staggered investment to mid & small cap strategies; shift to high quality AAA rated high
accrual debt funds
¡ January 2019 – We favor a combination of multi cap strategies within Equity MFs and selected high conviction portfolios within
the PMS/AIF platform, we recommend high quality accrual funds for incremental investment in fixed income; we have changed
our stance to positive for gold in long term
¡ June 2019 -We favour a combination of Multi cap and Mid & Small cap strategies in MF/PMS/AIF platforms, we change our stance
on gold to neutral in long term and maintain neutral stance in short term
¡ July 2019 - Increased allocation to high quality “AAA” accrual strategies to benefit from the corporate bond spreads
¡ August 2019 - Increase allocation to Equity in a staggered manner for the next six months; we have changed our stance to positive
for gold in long term
¡ September 2019 – For incremental investment in equities we revise our stance to invest in lumpsum from staggered
¡ March 2020 – For incremental investment in equities we revise our stance to from lumpsum to staggered investment over the next
6 -12months
¡ March 2020: No incremental allocation towards credit strategies
¡ April 2020 – Biased towards Large cap & Multicap strategies in MF/PMS/AIF platforms for incremental Equity Investment
¡ May 2020 - Recommended arbitrage fund with minimum 6 months investment horizon; put a hold on long duration accrual
strategies
¡ June 2020 - For incremental investment in equities we revise our stance to staggered investment over the next 3 - 6months biased
towards Multicap strategies in MF/PMS/AIF platforms

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 Alpha Strategist | ‘Goldilocks & Three Bears’

¡ July 2020 – For incremental allocation in equity, we recommend to increase allocation by investing 50% immediately and the
balance in a staggered manner in Multicap strategies(MFs, PMS, AIF) over the next 3-6months
¡ October 2020 – For incremental allocation in equity, we recommend to increase allocation in a staggered manner in Multicap
strategies(MFs, PMS, AIF) over the next 3-6months; fixed income allocation can be complemented by tactical investments in select
credit oriented funds, high yield NCDs, bonds & MLDs
¡ November 2020 - To enhance the overall portfolio yield, investors with medium to high risk profile can consider 15 – 20% allocation
of the overall fixed income portfolio to select MLDs, NCDs and credit oriented strategies
¡ January 2021 -We change our stance in Gold to neutral in short term from positive
¡ February 2021 -We recommend to invest 50%in lumpsum and 50%in a staggered manner over the next 3-6months in Multi cap and
select Mid & Small Cap strategies(MFs, PMS, AIF); We recommend a barbell approach where 'Accrual' should precede 'Duration'
and the overall portfolio average maturity should be between 2-5 years with sufficient long term investment horizon according to
the investor's risk return profile
¡ June 2021 -We change our short term stance in Gold to Positive from Neutral
¡ July 2021 – In Fixed Income, we recommend a barbell approach where 'Accrual' should precede 'Duration' and the overall portfolio
average maturity should be between 4-6 years with long term investment horizon; To enhance the overall portfolio yield, investors
with medium to high risk profile can consider 20% – 25% allocation of the overall fixed income portfolio to select high yield
strategies, MLDs and NCDS. Fixed Income portfolios should also include REITs/InvITs which have highest credit rating & which aim
to offer regular (either quarterly or half yearly) &predictable cash flows - investment horizon should be at least 4-5 years to
mitigate interim mark to market volatility
¡ February 2022 - We recommend to invest 50%in lump sum and 50%in a staggered manner over the next 3 months in Multi cap and
select Mid & Small Cap strategies (MFs, PMS, AIF)
¡ May 2022 - In Fixed Income, we recommend a barbell approach where ‘Accrual’ should precede ‘Duration’ such that the modified
duration of the portfolio does not go beyond 3-4 yrs; To enhance the overall portfolio yield, investors with medium to high risk
profile can consider 20% – 25% allocation of the overall fixed income portfolio to select high yield strategies, MLDs and NCDS. Fixed
Income portfolios should also include REITs/InvITs which have highest credit rating & which aim to offer regular (either quarterly or
half yearly) &predictable cash flows - investment horizon should be at least 4-5 years to mitigate interim mark to market volatility
¡ Dec 2022: Increased allocation to Value Oriented Multicap Strategies.
¡ April 2023 - Introduced multi asset strategies in fixed income core portfolio
¡ October 2023 - We recommend to increase duration through High quality (G-Sec/AAA equivalent) roll down strategies through a
combination of 7 - 12 years’ maturity Bonds/Funds
¡ December 2023 – We recommend to increase allocation in Equities by investing 100% lump-sum for any incremental investment in
equities with bias towards Multicap strategies & Large Cap strategies.
¡ April 2024: In fixed income, we recommend increasing exposure to duration through active and passive strategies.
¡ May 2024: We recommend increasing allocation in equities by implementing a staggered investment strategy over 3 to 6 months
for large & multi cap strategies, and 6 to 12 months for select mid & small-cap strategies. The most optimum lumpsum deployment
strategy could be through Multi-Asset & Balanced Advantage category.
¡ July 2024 : On back of tax proposals announced in Union Budget 2024, core fixed income allocation should be tilted towards
duration0 strategies as well as multi asset allocation strategies.

Investment Committee
Committee Members
Ashish Shanker – MD & CEO, Motilal Oswal Wealth Limited
Sandipan Roy – CIO, Motilal Oswal Wealth Limited
Gautam Duggad – Head of Research, Institutional Equities, MOFSL
Nikhil Gupta – Economist, MOFSL
Nitin Shanbhag – Head, Investment Products, Motilal Oswal Wealth Limited
External Speakers : Mr. Atul Suri (CEO, Marathon Trends)

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 Alpha Strategist | ‘Goldilocks & Three Bears’

Temperature Gauge
We are cognizant of the fact that investments are tuned to meet your objectives and thus calling for a suitable asset mix
basis your investment objective. However the challenge always remains to accurately estimate when the market is
cheap or expensive. In order to arrive at the decision of preferring equity over debt or vice versa, we believe earning
yield to bond yield is an excellent parameter to consider. This ratio indicates the perceived risk differential between
equity and bonds.
Historically whenever earnings yield and bond yield spreads are above 0.8, equities are considered to be undervalued.
The earning yield to bond yield parameter along with our in-house indicator of market valuations named as MOVI – The
Motilal Oswal Valuation Index enables us to arrive at a well-researched and thought through asset class outlook. MOVI
is basically an index which is calculated based on the Price to Earnings (PE), Price to Book Value (PB) and Dividend Yield
(DY) on the components of Nifty 50. By means of an algorithm the weighted average PE, PB and DY of the components of
Nifty 50, one arrives at index. A higher level on the MOVI means markets are expensive and hence one should reduce
equity exposure and vice versa.
With the above mentioned input variables, we have crafted a unique model coined as Temperature Gauge which help
in making investment choices across asset classes.
This qualitative and quantitative process would enable us to construct “winning portfolios” for our clients. In line with
our philosophy of providing better insights to you, we hope you find the same informative.

Data as on 3rd September’24

Source: Capital Line, Bloomberg Internal Research
Disclaimer: The above graph is for informaonal purpose. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future.

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 Alpha Strategist | ‘Goldilocks & Three Bears’

3 Yr Forward Returns Of Nifty At Different Levels Of Temperature

Gauge Index
% Times in
Niy 50 3 Yr Return CAGR
CAGR range
%
Index in No. of % of 6% to
Min Max Average Times >=10%
Range Observaons Observaons 10%
Posive
65 70 60 1% 24% 57% 43% 100.0% 0% 100%
70 75 202 2% 15% 51% 32% 100.0% 0% 100%
75 80 285 3% 14% 45% 37% 100.0% 0% 100%
80 85 168 2% 15% 43% 34% 100.0% 0% 100%
85 90 207 3% 12% 49% 33% 100.0% 0% 100%
90 95 539 7% 2% 47% 27% 100.0% 2% 97%
95 100 832 10% 1% 44% 18% 100.0% 8% 91%
100 105 714 9% -2% 30% 13% 98.7% 20% 71%
105 110 810 10% -4% 22% 10% 83.1% 15% 56%
110 115 1797 22% -7% 22% 9% 64.5% 28% 22%
115 120 1579 19% -4% 21% 8% 74.1% 21% 23%
120 125 804 10% -2% 18% 9% 83.2% 7% 55%
125 130 135 2% 0% 16% 12% 88.1% 4% 69%
130 135 84 1% -2% 15% 6% 91.7% 0% 36%
135 140 28 0% -3% 0% -1% 10.7% 0% 0%
Data as on 3rd September’24 Source: Capital Line, Internal Research
Disclaimer: The above data is for informaonal purpose. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future

Equity Allocation & Deployment Grid

Ø Below grid is based on Temperature Gauge Index
Valuaon

Expensive No Acon Reduce Reduce 100% Staggered

Staggered
Fair Invest Stay Invested Stay Invested
(Current Scenario)

Cheap Invest Invest Stay Invested 100% Lump sum

Strategic
Underweight Neutral Overweight Allocaon

Source: Internal Research

Disclaimer: The above data is for informaonal purpose. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future
SEPTEMBER 2024 | ISSUE 141 19
 Alpha Strategist | ‘Goldilocks & Three Bears’

Risk Return Matrix

Risk & Return Matrix - Investment Solutions

30%
Venture Capital
Private Equity

20%
Private Credit
Small cap MFs
Expected Return

Mid cap
15% Mul cap MFs
Large Cap MFs PMS,AIFs (Across
market caps and
themes)

10%

Credit Risk
Equity Savings Funds
Target Maturity Funds
Arbitrage
UST
F.D
5% Overnight
Risk
Risk Definitions: Debt products carry credit, liquidity & interest rate risk, Equity products carry capital & volatility risk. Alternates carry liquidity risk.
Expected returns over the next 5-10 years subject to change based on market cycles. Returns are for illustrative purposes only expected returns are on gross basis.

Private Credit Stages of Fund Raising

Different Stages of Fund Raising by a Company

Source: Internal Research & Northern Arc AMC

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 Alpha Strategist | ‘Goldilocks & Three Bears’

Our Recommendations
Fixed Income Mutual Funds
AUM 3 Month 6 Month 1 Year 3 Years 1 Year Rolling Return % 3 Year Rolling Return % Avg Mat Mod Dur Gross Sov, AAA AA+ & Unrated
Scheme Name (Rsincrore) &
% % % % Max. Min. Mean Max. Min. Mean (in years) (in years) YTM (%) Cash % below % %
Passive Long Duration Fund
BHARAT Bond ETF - April 2033 5,774 10.0 8.9 9.0 - 9.5 7.0 8.1 - - - 8.5 5.9 7.3 100.0 - -
HDFC NIFTY G-Sec Jun 2036 Index Fund-Reg(G) 819 11.9 10.3 9.7 - 9.7 7.0 8.5 - - - 11.8 7.7 6.7 100.0 - -
HDFC Long Duration Debt Fund-Reg(G) 3,390 12.9 10.2 10.8 - 10.8 6.4 9.4 - - - 30.7 12.4 6.6 99.8 - 0.2
Mirae Asset CRISIL IBX Gilt Index - April 2033 Index Fund-Reg(G) 240 11.1 9.2 8.7 - 9.2 6.3 7.6 - - - 8.2 5.9 6.7 100.0 - -
Nippon India Nivesh Lakshya Fund(G) 8,037 12.8 10.3 10.3 6.9 12.6 -1.4 5.1 12.2 3.2 6.1 21.2 10.4 6.5 99.8 - 0.2
Category Average - 12.0 9.9 10.1 6.1 - - - - - - - - - - - -
CRISIL Composite Bond Index - 10.1 8.8 8.5 5.8 8.8 0.6 5.2 10.2 4.2 6.3 - - - - - -
Dynamic Bond Fund
Bandhan Dynamic Bond Fund-Reg(G) 2,449 11.9 9.3 10.2 5.5 10.2 -0.1 4.3 10.0 2.6 5.6 29.0 12.1 5.6 100.0 - -
DSP Strategic Bond Fund-Reg(G) 1,169 11.7 9.1 9.1 6.1 10.7 0.8 5.0 9.8 3.6 6.0 29.8 11.6 6.1 100.0 - -
Category Average - 10.1 10.0 9.3 6.0 - - - - - - - - - - - -
CRISIL Composite Bond Index - 10.1 8.8 8.5 5.8 8.8 0.6 5.2 10.2 4.2 6.3 - - - - - -
Active Duration & Credit Strategy
ICICI Pru All Seasons Bond Fund(G) 12,667 9.1 8.4 8.0 6.3 8.7 2.2 5.9 9.5 5.3 6.9 6.5 3.9 6.5 100 - -
CRISIL Composite Bond Index - 10.1 8.8 8.5 5.8 8.8 0.6 5.2 10.2 4.2 6.3 - - - - - -
AUM 1 Month 3 Month 6 Month 1 Years 3 Years 3 Month Rolling Return % 1 Year Rolling Return % Avg Mat Mod Dur Gross Sov, AAA AA+ & Unrated
Scheme Name &
(Rs incrore) % % % % % Max. Min. Mean Max. Min. Mean (in years) (in years) YTM (%) Cash % below % %
Liquid /Overnight Fund
Aditya Birla SL Overnight Fund-Reg(G) 7,080 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.7 5.6 6.6 3.0 5.3 6.7 3.0 5.0 - - 6.3 100.0 - -
HDFC Liquid Fund(G) 62,051 6.8 6.9 7.3 7.3 5.9 7.6 3.1 5.6 7.3 3.1 5.2 0.1 0.1 6.8 99.4 0.4 0.2
HDFC Overnight Fund(G) 9,912 6.2 6.3 6.5 6.7 5.5 6.6 3.0 5.2 6.7 3.0 4.9 0.0 0.0 6.3 100.0 - -
ICICI Pru Liquid Fund(G) 50,078 6.8 7.0 7.3 7.3 5.9 7.6 3.1 5.6 7.3 3.1 5.2 0.1 0.1 6.8 98.6 1.2 0.2
Category Average - 6.7 6.9 7.2 7.2 5.8 - - - - - - - - - - - -
CRISIL Liquid Debt Index - 6.9 7.1 7.2 7.4 6.1 7.4 3.4 5.8 7.4 3.5 5.5 - - - - - -

st st
Portfolio as on 31 July 2024. Returns as on 31 August 2024. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future Short Term Roll down Strategy & Target Maturity Funds -
1 and 3 years rolling returns Liquid / Overnight Funds - 3 and 6 months rolling returns for the last 1 year (August 23 – August 24)
Ultra Short Term Funds - 6 months & 1 year rolling returns for the last 1 year (August 23 – August 24), Arbitrage Funds - 6 months & 1 year rolling returns for the last 1 year (expiry to expiry)
Returns are annualised except for Equity Savings where returns are absolute

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AUM 1 Month 3 Month 6 Month 1 Years 3 Years 3 Month Rolling Return % 1 Year Rolling Return % Avg Mat Mod Dur Gross Sov, AAA AA+ & Unrated
Scheme Name &
(Rs incrore) % % % % % Max. Min. Mean Max. Min. Mean (in years) (in years) YTM (%) Cash % below % %
Ultra Short Term Fund
HDFC Ultra Short Term Fund-Reg(G) 15,129 6.6 7.1 7.4 7.2 5.8 7.9 2.8 5.6 7.2 3.3 5.3 0.4 0.4 6.9 93.9 5.8 0.2
ICICI Pru Ultra Short Term Fund Fund(G) 14,113 6.5 7.0 7.4 7.2 5.9 8.0 2.9 5.6 7.2 3.6 5.4 0.5 0.4 6.8 88.8 11.0 0.2
Category Average - 6.3 6.7 7.0 6.9 5.6 - - - - - - - - - - - -
Crisil Liquid Fund Index - 6.9 7.1 7.2 7.4 6.1 7.2 3.4 4.6 6.6 3.5 4.5 - - - - - -
Floating Rate Fund
HDFC Floating Rate Debt Fund(G) 15,189 8.3 9.2 8.9 8.0 6.3 9.1 0.5 6.1 8.1 3.1 5.9 4.2 1.3 7.4 86.4 13.3 0.3
ICICI Pru Floating Interest Fund(G) 9,136 8.0 9.5 9.0 7.8 6.0 12.0 -1.3 6.0 8.4 1.9 5.7 6.3 1.0 7.0 79.3 20.3 0.3
Category Average - 7.3 7.8 8.8 8.2 6.0 - - - - - - - - - - - -
Crisil Liquid Fund Index - 6.9 7.1 7.2 7.4 6.1 7.2 3.4 4.6 6.6 3.5 4.5 - - - - - -
AUM 1 Month 3 Month 6 Month 1 Years 3 Years 3 Month Rolling Return *% 1 Year Rolling Return %
Scheme Name Debt % Arbitrage % Cash %
(Rsincrore) % % % % % Max. Min. Mean Max. Min. Mean
Arbitrage
Edelweiss Arbitrage Fund-Reg(G) 12,007 6.3 7.0 7.4 7.6 6.0 9.0 2.4 5.7 7.8 3.4 5.4 24.1% 74.1% 1.9%
Invesco India Arbitrage Fund(G) 17,654 7.2 7.5 7.6 7.7 6.2 8.8 2.5 5.9 7.8 3.3 5.6 23.0% 75.1% 1.9%
Kotak Equity Arbitrage Fund(G) 51,570 6.4 7.2 7.6 7.8 6.1 9.1 2.6 5.8 8.1 3.5 5.6 21.8% 76.9% 1.3%
Category Average - 6.4 6.9 7.1 7.3 5.5 - - - - - - - - -
CRISIL Liquid Debt Index - 6.9 7.1 7.2 7.4 6.1 7.4 3.4 5.8 7.4 3.5 5.5 - - -
AUM 1 Month 3 Month 6 Month 1 Years 3 Years 3 Month Rolling Return *% 1 Year Rolling Return % Equity Debt Arbitrage Cash
Scheme Name %
(Rsincrore) % % % % % Max. Min Mean Max Min Mean % % %
Equity Savings Fund
ICICI Pru Equity Savings Fund(G) 10,939 13.4 17.9 11.7 10.5 8.7 18.5 2.2 8.4 17.2 4.7 9.1 18.3% 18.8% 53.8% 9.1%
Kotak Equity Savings Fund(G) 6,541 18.3 24.7 19.6 21.2 12.9 32.6 -5.7 12.4 21.5 5.3 12.0 34.1% 21.4% 33.6% 10.9%
Category Average - 1.0 5.4 8.1 16.4 9.5 - - - - - - - - - -
CRISIL Short Term Bond Index - 8.0 8.5 8.1 7.7 5.8 9.8 -3.1 5.7 7.7 2.6 5.5 - - - -
Nifty Equity Saving
st st
Portfolio as on 31 July 2024. Returns as on 31 August 2024. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future Short Term Roll down Strategy & Target Maturity Funds -
1 and 3 years rolling returns Liquid / Overnight Funds - 3 and 6 months rolling returns for the last 1 year (August 23 – August 24)
Ultra Short Term Funds - 6 months & 1 year rolling returns for the last 1 year (August 23 – August 24), Arbitrage Funds - 6 months & 1 year rolling returns for the last 1 year (expiry to expiry)
Returns are annualised except for Equity Savings where returns are absolute

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 Alpha Strategist | ‘Goldilocks & Three Bears’

Investment Grid
MOTILAL OSWAL PRIVATE WEALTH (MOPW) - INVESTMENT GRID SEPTEMBER, 2024
Asset Class Holding Period Theme Strategy Managed Strategies

DELPHI 3 Years + Asset allocation oriented investment solutions DPMS 4C Advantage (Equity)

Stability Large Cap Aditya Birla SL Frontline Equity Fund, HDFC Top 100 Fund, Motilal Oswal Large Cap, Nippon India Large Cap Fund

Buoyant Opportunities Strategy PMS, Motilal Oswal Growth Helios Flexi Cap, ICICI India Opportunity, Motilal Oswal
Anchors Plus Fund, Buoyant Opportunities AIF, Marathon Large & Mid Cap, Bandhan Sterling value fund, Franklin
Sectors agnostic of Market cap and style Multi-Cap Trend Following PMS,Renaissance Opportunities, India Flexicap, HDFC Flexi Cap, Kotak Equity Opp Fund,
Renaissance India Next, MO Founders PMS, Alchemy High 360 ONE Flexi Cap, Parag Parikh Flexi Cap, Mirae Asset
Growth Select, UNIFI Blended PMS, MO HEMSA, Ikigai Multi Cap
Emerging Equity Fund
Equity 3 Years +
Bandhan Small Cap Fund, HSBC Small Cap Fund, HDFC Small Cap Fund, Invesco India Small cap Fund, HDFC Mid-Cap
Mid & Small Cap strategies Mid & Small Cap Opportunities Fund, Motilal Oswal Midcap Fund

Aditya Birla SL Balanced Advantage Fund, ICICI Pru Balanced Advantage Fund, HDFC Balanced Advantage Fund, Kotak
Focusing on stable returns with lower risk Balance Advantage Funds Balanced Advantage Fund

<1 month Liquidity Management Overnight HDFC Overnight Fund, Aditya Birla Sun Life Overnight Fund

1 – 3 months Liquidity Management Liquid HDFC Liquid Fund and ICICI Pru Liquid Fund

Ultra Short Term Fund HDFC Ultra Short Term Fund, ICICI Pru Ultra Short Term Fund
6 months- 1 year Liquidity Management
Arbitrage Kotak Equity Arbitrage Fund, Edelweiss Arbitrage Fund, Invesco Arbitrage Fund
Fixed Income 9 months – 1 year Liquidity Management Floating Rate Funds HDFC Floating Rate Fund, ICICI Pru Floater Fund

3 years Conservative / Moderate Strategy Equity Saving Funds ICICI Pru Equity Savings Fund, Kotak Equity Savings Fund

3 years+ Active Duration Strategies Dynamic Bond Funds Bandhan Dynamic Bond Fund, DSP Strategic Bond Fund

3 years+ Active Duration & Credit Strategy Dynamic Bond Fund ICICI Pru All Seasons Bond Fund

Mirae Asset CRISIL IBX Gilt Index April 2033 Index Fund, HDFC Nifty GSec June 2036 Index Fund, Bharat Bond ETF/FOF
> 8 yrs average maturity Roll Down Strategies Hold to Maturity/Tactical Allocation
April 2033, HDFC Long Duration Fund, Nippon India Nivesh Lakshaya Fund

Multi Asset 3 years+ Conservative / Moderate Strategy Multi Asset Allocation Fund White Oak Multi Asset Allocation Fund, ICICI Multi Asset Fund

Generate alpha through active management of long and short

15 Months+ Long – Short fund Avendus Absolute Return Fund
positions

3 years+ Hedge against volatility Gold Funds/ETFs Sovereign Gold Bonds, Kotak Gold ETF, Kotak Gold Fund
Alternatives
3 years+ Invest in domestic real estate REITs Mindspace REIT, Brookfield REIT, Embassy REIT, Nexus REIT

3 years+ Invest in Power Transmission/Solar/Road Assets InvITs Indigrid InvIT, Bharat Highways InvIT

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 Alpha Strategist | ‘Goldilocks & Three Bears’

MOTILAL OSWAL PRIVATE WEALTH (MOPW) - INVESTMENT GRID SEPTEMBER, 2024

Asset Class Holding Period Theme Strategy Managed Strategies

Performing Credit strategy lending to Mid-Size Retail and

Retail focused businesses, high rated corporate backed
4 years A K Securitization & Credit Opportunities Fund II
entities with group comfort, Education finance, Vehicle
financing, Mortgage finance, etc
AA- rated fund lending to companies characterized by strong
4 years counter party, large equity base and low leverage for the Neo Income Plus Fund
purpose of working capital, acquisition, growth financing etc Private
Credit/Mezzanine
Investing in Diversified Portfolio of Operating Assets in Road & (Fixed Income)
Renewable Energy Sector in order to generate periodic cash
7 years flows and to achieve attractive risk adjusted returns through Neo Infra Income Opportunities Fund
capital gains upon exit.
Lending to performing credit (ebitda positive) and venture
backed growth companies (sector agnostic excl. real estate) to
7 years solve objectives like financing assets, working capital, BlackSoil India Credit Fund II
acquisition finance
Alternatives
Category II , high yield real estate fund capitalizing on tailwinds
7 years+ to the sector through a diversified portfolio of early stage
Real Estate MO IREF VI
funding to established developers in residential and other
segments

Invest in brownfield projects (operating residential real

5 Years+ estate) with end-use largely limited towards working capital, Real Estate Sundaram Alternative Opp series – High Yield Secured Real Estate Fund IV
construction completion & last mile financing

Strategy is to acquire completed, operating grade A/A+ office

9 years+ spaces/assets in specific micro markets identified Real Estate Edelweiss Rental Yield Plus Fund

focus on mid-market investing and with opportunistic

investing in early, growth and late stage to capitalize across
8 years+ lifecycle. Sector agnostic approach with focus on consumer, Private Equity Barings Private Equity India Fund 6
pharma, healthcare, financial services, technology,
industrials.

Investing in early growth stage companies which have scalable

10 years + business model, positive cashflows Private Equity India SME Investments – Fund II

10 years + India dedicated specialist healthcare private equity fund Private Equity Quadria India Fund I

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 Alpha Strategist | ‘Goldilocks & Three Bears’

Section II

Macro Economy...................................................................................................26

Equities...............................................................................................................32

Fixed Income.......................................................................................................34

Gold....................................................................................................................37

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This document is not valid without disclosure; refer the last page for the disclosure
 Alpha Strategist | ‘Goldilocks & Three Bears’

Macro Economy
Major Economies - Snapshot
United
US Japan Australia Germany France Euro Area
Kingdom
GDP YoY 3.1% -0.2% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.9% 0.6%
Inflation rate 2.9% 2.8% 3.8% 1.9% 1.9% 2.2% 2.2%
10yr Bond Yield 3.7% 0.9% 3.9% 2.2% 2.9% 3.9% 3.0%
Policy rate 5.5% 0.3% 4.4% 4.3% 4.3% 5.0% 4.3%

Emerging Economies - Snapshot

India Indonesia Brazil Mexico South Korea China Russia
GDP YoY 6.7% 5.1% 3.3% 2.1% 2.3% 4.7% 4.0%
Inflation rate 3.5% 2.1% 4.5% 5.6% 2.0% 0.5% 9.1%
10yr Gsec 6.9% 6.6% 12.0% 10.0% 3.0% 2.1% 15.6%
Policy rate 6.5% 6.3% 10.5% 10.8% 3.5% 3.4% 18.0%
Source: Trading Economics
Disciaimer: Data mentioned as latest update made on Trading Economics.

India's investment landscape is experiencing a resurgence after a period of stagnation. The investment to GDP ratio,
which had been low since 2011, is now recovering due to post-COVID recovery efforts and increased government
expenditure. The country has spent $14 trillion on investments since independence, with $8 trillion spent in the last
decade alone. As the investment base grows, India is expected to spend another $8 trillion in the next five years. This
significant increase in the size of India's annual investments is drawing attention and highlights the country's growing
economic potential and attractiveness as an investment destination.

Macro Economy: Different Asset Class Performance – CYTD24

Note: Price Index values are being considered. Returns for Debt &
Liquid are taken on Annualised basis, rest all are on absolute basis
Equity IND - Nifty 50, Equity US - S&P 500 INR, MSCI DM – MSCI
World Index (Developed) INR, MSCI EM -MSCI Emerging Index INR,
Gold - Gold INR, Debt - CRISIL Composite Bond Index, Liquid - CRISIL
Liquid Index, NASDAQ - NASDAQ Composite index INR, Real Estate -
RBI House Price Index (3 month returns for CY24 since data for this
index is available only till end Jun'24)

Source: Investing.com, RBI, Internal research

Disclaimer: The above chart/data is for informational purpose. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future

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 Alpha Strategist | ‘Goldilocks & Three Bears’

Global Market Update: September 2024 Overview

U.S. Market Overview
Global financial markets experienced significant fluctuations in late August and early September 2024 due to various
economic indicators, interest rate changes, and geopolitical events.
U.S. stock indexes displayed diverse outcomes during the last week of August amidst a backdrop of thin trading due to the
impending Labor Day holiday. A significant incident was the sharp decline in NVIDIA's value, which had a pronounced
negative impact on the Nasdaq Composite index. Interestingly, value stocks outpaced growth shares, resulting in the
most considerable widening since late July. Despite this turbulence, Dow Jones and S&P 500 witnessed modest
advances, underscoring the market's mixed signals.

Economic Indicators
The U.S. economy displayed strong resilience backed by crucial growth and inflation statistics.
Key highlights included:
• A 0.2% rise in the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index for July, aligning with expectations and
indicating inflation levels hovering near the Federal Reserve's targets
• Enhanced consumer confidence as personal income unexpectedly rose by 0.3% and personal spending increased by
0.5%, showcasing a sturdy consumer base even amidst a gradually cooling labour market

European Market Highlights

Inflation Trends
European markets breathed a sigh of relief as inflation figures began approaching central bank targets, aiding in
tempering economic tensions. The Eurozone's annual headline inflation dropped to 2.2% in August from 2.6% in July,
nearing the ECB's target, driven partially by year-on-year energy cost comparisons. However, services inflation remained
a concern, rising slightly to 4.2%, which could influence future monetary policy decisions.

Equity Market Volatility

The pan-European STOXX Europe 600 Index rose by 1.34%, continuing its rally for the fourth consecutive week as
optimism over potential European Central Bank rate cuts grew. Major European indexes like Germany's DAX and Italy's
FTSE MIB witnessed gains, supported by decelerating inflation.

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Asian Markets Analysis

Japanese Economic Movements
Japan's market landscape was marked by heightened volatility. The TOPIX Index encountered severe fluctuations, initially
dropping significantly in early August due to concerns over the Bank of Japan's rate hikes. However, the market recovered
later in the month amid speculation of favourable U.S. monetary policy shifts. The yen saw a decline, affected by
contrasting monetary policy forecasts between Japan and the U.S., which put pressure on Japan's export-dependent
industries.
Chinese Market Dynamics
China faced ongoing economic challenges with a struggling real estate sector impacting broader market sentiment. The
Shanghai Composite and the CSI 300 indexes fell, reflecting investor apprehension, while sluggish corporate earnings
fostered pessimism. Forecasts for retail sales and fixed asset investment were downgraded, highlighting growing
concerns over economic momentum. The People's Bank of China maintained steady lending rates but intervened to
inject liquidity into the banking sector.

Emerging Markets and Commodities

Emerging markets displayed resilience bolstered by a weaker U.S. dollar, which provided a tailwind for regional debt
markets. The Bloomberg Commodity Index remained relatively stable amidst fluctuating demands for energy and base
metals. A notable exception was the ongoing decline in oil and iron ore prices due to global growth uncertainties and
reduced manufacturing activity in China.

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Indian Economic Review

The Indian economy recorded a real GDP growth rate of 6.7% year-on-year in 1QFY25, representing a decline from
previous quarters and marking the lowest rate in five quarters. This deceleration reflects a convergence of domestic and
global factors affecting economic momentum

Quarter-wise Real GDP Growth Rates (%) for FY 2018-19 to FY 2024-25 (Q1) (Constant Prices)
(Base Year: 2011-12)

Source: MoSPI, India (Publication: QUARTERLY ESTIMATES OF GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT FOR THE FIRST QUARTER
(APRIL - JUNE) OF 2024-25), Click to get data/ vizualization • Prepared by Computer Centre @GoIStats
Note: Growth Rates Calculated with respect to Previous Year same quarter; Q1: Quarter 1; Q2: Quarter 2; Q3: Quarter 3; Q4: Quarter 4

Contributor Components of GDP

Source: MO Institutional Equities

1. Private Consumption Expenditure (PCE):

The PCE showcased robust growth at 7.4%, signalling a strong consumer spending recovery. This resilience can be
attributed to festive spending, increasing disposable incomes, government support, and improved consumer confidence
across various segments. Sustained growth in PCE is crucial for counteracting slowdowns, as it contributes significantly to
overall GDP. Continued efforts to enhance disposable income through tax reforms and employment generation will
prove to be vital.

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Source: MO Institutional Equities

2. Government Consumption Expenditure (GCE):

In stark contrast to PCE, GCE exhibited a decline of 0.2%. Such contraction raises concerns about government spending
on infrastructure, public services, and welfare programs, which could stifle broader economic activity. A reduction in
government spending can lead to slower job creation and limited investment in long-term development projects, posing
risks to future growth trajectories.
3. Gross Capital Formation (GCF):
GCF demonstrated growth of 7.1%, highlighting a continued commitment to investment, albeit at a decelerated pace
compared to previous quarters. Within GCF, Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) was recorded at 7.5%. Investments are
increasingly directed toward infrastructure and manufacturing, influenced by government initiatives aimed at
promoting the Make in India campaign and enhancing urban infrastructure.
Fiscal Health: A Closer Look
The fiscal landscape among Indian states presents critical concerns, especially highlighted by the aggregate fiscal deficit
reaching 11.3% of budget estimates in 1QFY25, marking a new peak for this timeframe and translating to approximately
INR 1.1 trillion or about 1.5% of GDP.

Source: MO Institutional Equities

Surpluses vs. Deficits: While five states reported fiscal surpluses (Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Maharashtra, Odisha, and
Uttar Pradesh), the overall trend indicates heightened fiscal stress. Eight states had surpluses in the previous year,
emphasizing deterioration in fiscal health for several states.
Top States with Significant Deficits:
Andhra Pradesh: Recorded alarming fiscal deficits, peaking at 57% of budget estimates, which raises both immediate and
long-term sustainability concerns. Kerala and Tamil Nadu: Also reported deficits exceeding 25% of their budget
estimates, necessitating urgent fiscal corrective measures to stabilize their economies.

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Implications of High Deficits

Borrowing Costs: A rising fiscal deficit may lead to an increase in borrowing costs for states, potentially crowding out
investment in crucial infrastructure and welfare programs.
Investment in Infrastructure: The ability of states to invest in infrastructure may be hampered, impacting overall growth
potential and quality of public services, thus endangering systemic economic resilience.

Source: MO Institutional Equities

Trade Dynamics and Net Exports

India's trade balance showed promising signs in 1QFY25, with exports experiencing notable growth at 8.7%, outpacing an
import growth rate of 4.4%. This favourable development highlights a strategic shift toward bolstering net exports as a
key component of economic growth.

Source: MO Institutional Equities

Navigating the Path Forward

The analysis of the Indian economy in 1QFY25 reveals a landscape where resilience coexists with significant challenges.
While robust private consumption and improved trade dynamics provide a strong foundation, fiscal stress and the slow
pace of public investment loom as critical concerns.

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Equities
Market & Sectoral Performance
The Indian equity markets exhibited resilience during August 2024, characterized by a steady rise in major indices. The
BSE Sensex recorded a growth of approximately 1%. Similarly, Nifty scaled a record high; closed above 25,000, and
touched a fresh high of 25,268 before ending +1.11% MoM at 25,236 in August'24. Both the indices have closed higher for
the third straight month. Small-cap stocks outperform the broader market as well as the Nifty 50, with the Nifty Small
Cap 150 TRI gaining 2.06%, while mid-cap stocks returned 1.09%. The broader Nifty 500 TRI saw modest gains of 1.14%.

Niy Indices Returns

Niy Small cap 150 TRI 2.06%

Niy Mid cap 150 TRI 1.09%

Niy 500 TRI 1.14%

Niy 50 TRI 1.11%

Source: Internal Research

Sectoral Performance
During this period, the performance of various sectors was notably varied, with several gaining traction while others
faced challenges.

MoM Change In Sector (%)

Media -2
Ulies -2
Capital Goods -3
Real Estate -4
PSU Banks -6
Financial 1
Consumer 2
Telecom 2
Technology 5
Healthcare 7

Source: Bulls & Bear

FII & DII Flows

FIIs turned buyers for the third consecutive month of USD1.4b in Aug'24. DII inflows continue to remain strong at
USD5.8b in Aug'24. FII inflows into Indian equities stood at USD 5.1 b in CY24YTD vs. inflows of USD 21.4 b in CY23. DII
inflows into equities in CY24YTD continue to be strong at USD37b vs. USD 22.3 b in CY23.
FIIs (USD bn) DIIs (USD bn)

6.7 7 6.8 6.7

5.8
5 5.3
4.1 4.1 4
3.7 3.4 3.4 3.3
3 3.2 3.1 3.1
2.45 2.8
2.3 2.3
1.8 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.4
0.3 0.5 0.5

-0.6 -0.4 -0.3

-1.1
-2.3
-2.7 -3
-3.1
-3.7

Source: Bulls & Bear

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Corporate Earnings
The 1QFY25 corporate earnings came in line, with overall growth primarily propelled again by domestic cyclicals. Major
contributors were Healthcare, Real Estate, Capital Goods, and Metals sectors. In contrast, earnings growth was adversely
affected by OMCs. Earnings for the Nifty-50 rose 4% YoY. The aggregate performance was hit by a drag from OMCs.
Excluding OMCs, Nifty posted 9% earnings growth.

Niy Universe YoY PAT growth(%) Niy Universe Ex - O&G YoY PAT growth(%)
56
107
49

35
32 30
23 23
38 35 19 17
29 14 16
26 22 23 13
17 19 10
10 11 12
4
Jun-22

Aug-22

Dec-22
Jun-21

Aug-21

Dec-21

Jun-23

Aug-23

Dec-23

Jun-24
Feb-22

Feb-23

Feb-24
Oct-21

Apr-22

Oct-22

Apr-23

Oct-23

Apr-24

Jun-21

Aug-21

Dec-21

Jun-22

Aug-22

Dec-22

Jun-23

Aug-23

Dec-23

Jun-24
Feb-22

Feb-23

Feb-24
Oct-21

Apr-22

Oct-22

Apr-23

Oct-23

Apr-24
Source: India Strategy, Review Q1FY25

Sector wise earning reviews

• Banks: Faced a soft quarter with weak business growth, NIM contraction, and increased provisioning costs,
particularly in private banks. Public sector banks saw mild margin compression due to better investment yields.
• Autos: OEMs reported ~10% YoY volume growth in 1QFY25, led by two-wheelers (11% YoY) and supported by strong
demand anticipated during the festive season.
• Consumer: Revenue growth was 6% YoY (est. 8%) in 1QFY25, up from 4% in 4QFY24, indicating improving
consumption, especially in rural staples.
• Oil & Gas: Performance was below estimates, mainly due to weak OMC results. Adjusted PAT was 9% below estimates
(down 42% YoY), even excluding OMCs, which was 8% below estimates (down 5% YoY).
• Technology: IT services showed strong results in 1QFY25 with 1.2% QoQ revenue growth (CC), despite ongoing
pressure on discretionary spending.
• Healthcare: Companies reported in-line sales with EBITDA and PAT beating estimates by 6% each, driven by lower raw
material costs and successful product launches.

A Perspective on Valuations
Over the past five years, the Nifty-50 has delivered stellar returns at 17% CAGR, supported by equally impressive
corporate earnings CAGR of 18%, resulting in an increase in Nifty profits to INR7.9t in FY24 from INR3.5t in FY19. The
earnings momentum is expected to sustain going forward although the magnitude of the growth is expected to moderate
to ~15% over FY24-26. The Nifty P/E remains well within its 10-year average range and is expected to maintain this level
going forward.

Going Forward
The equity outlook remains positive due to strong economic growth, capital expenditures, and expected rate cuts. While
large-cap stocks appear fairly valued, mid-and small-cap stocks are trading at higher valuations, though earnings growth
for these segments is strong.
If equity allocation is lower than desired levels, investors can increase allocation by implementing a staggered investment
strategy over 3 to 6 months for large & multi-cap strategies and 6 to 12 months for select mid & small-cap strategies with
accelerated deployment in the event of a meaningful correction.

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Fixed Income
India in a Goldilocks Phase - Real GDP, Inflation & Twin Deficit
With the stabilization seen in terms GDP growth, cooling down of twin deficits (Fiscal deficit & Current Account deficit)
and inflation trending lower, we believe that Indian Economy has entered in a Goldilocks phase. Improving Forex
reserves, stable currency and the declining 10 year yields also provide additional comfort on the macro front. However,
there are certain risks in current scenario like global events which can cause near to medium term volatility in the markets

Fiscal Deficit (% of GDP) (RHS) Current Account Deficit (% of GDP) (RHS)

Real GDP Growth (LHS) Average Annual Inflaon Rate (LHS)

Deficit
10.2%
9.8%
10.0% 9.4% 10.0%
7.0%
8.0% 8.3% 8.2%
8.0% 4.8% 7.4% 7.2% 8.0%
6.8% 1.2% 2.0%
6.4% 6.5%
6.2%

Twin Deficit (Fiscal & CAD)

5.8% 4.8%
6.0% 5.5% 0.7% 6.0%
4.9% 6.7% 1.3%
1.7% 4.5% 2.1% 0.9%
Real GDP & Inflaon

1.3% 1.1% 1.8% 5.5%

5.4%
4.0% 0.6% 3.9% 4.5% 4.0%
3.6% 3.4%
2.0% 2.0%

4.9% 4.5% 4.1% 3.9% 3.5% 3.6% 3.5% 4.6% 9.2% 6.8% 6.4% 5.6% 4.9%
0.0% 0.0%
-0.9%

-2.0% -2.0%

Surplus
-4.0% -4.0%

-6.0% -5.8% -6.0%

FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E

Source: Internal Research, RBI, MOSPI, Trading Economics

Inflation trending downwards – Global & in India

The inflation in the major economies has been slowing down after the highs recorded in the mid of CY22. Inflation in India
is at its lowest levels in the last 4 years mainly on the back of easing food inflation

Source: Investing.com, Y charts Source: Investing.com, Y charts

FOMC Rate Projections and US/India 10 Yr Yield Curve

U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield softened to around 3.91% after FED indicated reducing interest rates in September 2024. A
healthy U.S. retail sales data, smaller-than-expected rise in weekly unemployment claims and an easing inflation print
provided solace
India bond yields continue to be guided by liquidity conditions, moves in global benchmarks, with domestic demand
supply conditions largely supported

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Federal Policy Rate Median Projection:

5.1% by 2024; 4.1% by 2025, 3.1% by 2026

Source: Federal Reserve Website: Summary of Economic Projections June 2024

US 10 Yr. Yield India 10 Yr G-Sec Yield

8.5
8.0
7.5 6.86
7.0 6.24
6.5 5.76
6.0
5.5
5.0
4.5 3.91
4.0
3.5
3.0 2.59
2.5
2.0
1.5 0.54
1.0
0.5
0.0
Dec-18

Dec-19
Mar-16

Mar-21
Oct-16

Sep-17

Sep-18
Feb-17

Aug-19

Nov-20

Oct-21

Oct-22

Sep-23
Feb-22

Feb-23

Aug-24
May-18

May-23

May-24
Jun-16

Jun-17

Apr-19

Apr-20

Jun-22
Jan-18

Jan-24
Jul-20

Jul-21

Source: Internal Research, Investing.com

RBI Remained Status Quo on Policy Rate/Stance: To Take Cues from Domestic/Global Factors
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted to keep the policy rate and stance unchanged, with a majority vote of 4 to 2,
same as last time. Hence, repo rate was maintained at 6.5% and stance remained focused on “withdrawal of
accommodation” to ensure that inflation progressively aligns to the target, while supporting growth.
Going forward, RBI would prefer more clarity on following trend/data to change guidance on policy rates and stance
• Inflation & Growth dynamics
• Monsoon Season
• Global Central Bank Stance
• Path of interest rates of developed economies
RBI may remain status quo on monetary policy for most part of 2024 with the possibility of a shallow rate easing cycle
at end of FY25. Upside risks include spike in food inflation, uneven monsoon, geo political tension impact on crude oil
10 Yr Gsec (Yield %) Repo Rate (%) CPI (%) Core CPI (%)

8.00
7.50
6.86
7.00
6.50
6.50
6.00
5.50
5.00
4.50
4.00
3.54
3.50 3.14
3.00
May-22

May-23

May-24
Aug-22

Aug-23

Aug-24
Mar-22

Mar-23
Dec-21

Dec-22

Mar-24
Dec-23
Nov-22

Nov-23
Sep-22

Sep-23
Feb-23

Feb-24
Jun-22

Jun-23

Jun-24
Jan-22

Apr-22

Jan-23

Apr-23

Jan-24

Apr-24
Oct-22

Oct-23
Jul-22

Jul-23

Jul-24

Source: Bloomberg, RBI Website, Internal Research

Current Scenario in Fixed Income in India & Way Forward
In the last few months, despite stable domestic long term macro fundamentals, the Indian bond market witnessed
heightened volatility in line with global markets taking cue from mixed global macro signals, uncertain central bank
policies across developed markers and rising geopolitical tensions. In last 10 months, yields of long term maturity G-secs
eased by 50 – 60 bps albeit interim volatility
Positive Factors for Indian bond market include stable domestic macros, inclusion of bonds in global indices, lower gross
borrowings, change in India's Sovereign outlook, path to fiscal consolidation.
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 Alpha Strategist | ‘Goldilocks & Three Bears’

Volatility may remain on back of global factors namely UST yields, mixed global macro signals, divergent Central Bank's
Stance, crude oil impact etc However, the medium to longer term trend continues to suggest a softening trajectory –
hence, we reiterate our view that core fixed income allocation can remain tilted towards duration through active and
passive strategies/bonds so as to capitalize on the evolving fixed income scenario while acknowledging the short-term
volatility in yields.

Movement in Long Maturity G Secs

10 Yr Gsec 15 Yr Gsec 30 Yr Gsec
7.60 7.51
7.50
7.50
7.40
7.30
7.35
7.20
7.10
7.00
7.00
6.90 6.92
6.80 6.86

Source: Internal Research, Bloomberg, Investing.com

Yields curve has shifted downwards and is gradually moving from a flat to a bull steepening on back of favourable demand
supply dynamics and well-contained inflation. The short term yields are softening more than long term yields leading to
increase in term spreads
Movement in G - Sec Yields Across Maturies
31-Aug-24 31-Mar-24 31-Oct-23
7.60
7.50 7.51
7.50

7.40 7.35 7.35

7.33 7.32 7.30
7.30
Yield (%)

7.20 7.12
7.09
7.10 7.05 7.05 7.05
7.03
7.00
6.98
7.00 6.92
6.86
6.90
6.77
6.80 6.74 6.75 6.75

6.70
1 Yr 2 Yr 3 Yr 5 Yr 10 Yr 15 Yr 30 Yr

Maturity in years

Source: Internal Research, Bloomberg, Investing.com

Fixed Income Portfolio Strategy:

We reiterate our view to have a duration bias in the fixed income portfolio so as to capitalize on the likely
softening of yields in the next 1-2 years
• 30% of the portfolio may be invested in
• Actively managed duration funds to capitalize on evolving fixed income scenario
• For passive duration allocation, one may invest in long term maturity G-sec papers to benefit from
accrual income and potential MTM gains
• 30% - 35% of the portfolio shall be allocated to Multi Asset Allocation funds & Equity Savings Funds
• These funds aim to generate enhanced returns than traditional fixed income with moderate volatility
through a combination of Domestic Equity, Arbitrage, Fixed income, International Equity, Gold & other
Commodities
• To improve the overall portfolio yield, 30% – 35% of the overall fixed income portfolio can be allocated to
Private Credit strategies, REITs/InvITs & select high yield NCDs
• For liquidity management, investments can be made in Floating Rate (9 to 12 months) & Arbitrage Funds
(minimum 3 to 6 months)
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Gold & Silver

Gold Market Review for August 2024
Overview of Gold Performance
In August 2024, gold showed resilient performance, buoyed by a range of global and domestic factors. At the beginning of
the month, geopolitical tensions surrounding Middle East conflicts led to increased demand for safe-haven assets. Gold
prices rose significantly, touching an all-time peak of $2,525 per ounce due to heightened market volatility before
experiencing a slight pullback to settle at approximately $2,503 per ounce by month-end. This represented a 2.4%
increase for August, indicating strong investor interest despite fluctuating market conditions.

Gold and Silver takes breather after sharp rally this year

Source: MO Commodity Canvas

Geopolitical Factors Influencing Gold Prices

The geopolitical landscape was particularly tumultuous in August, with significant developments in the Middle East
adding to the uncertainty. The ongoing conflicts heightened investor concerns, driving them towards gold as a protective
measure. Safe-haven assets like gold typically benefit in such scenarios, as stakeholders look to shield their investments
from potential market downturns resulting from geopolitical instability.
Additionally, the re-escalation of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict added further complications. The uncertainty
concerning military and economic repercussions in Europe increased demand for gold, influencing its upward price
trajectory.

Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy

Policy Rate Expectations
The Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates remained a pivotal theme in August. In its July meeting, the Fed kept the
policy rate unchanged in the range of 5.25% to 5.5%. However, Fed Chairman's remarks at the Jackson Hole Symposium
indicated a dovish stance, pointing towards possible rate cuts in response to weak economic data and labour market
conditions.
Rate Cut Probabilities
Market estimates suggest that the Fed could cut rates in September, with a 65% chance for a 25 basis points cut and a 34%
chance for a 50 basis points cut. Such expectations align with growing concerns about the economy's performance
amidst high interest rates and elevated national debt, which has now surpassed $35 trillion.
Impact of Fed Rate Cuts on Gold Prices
Rate cut in the US leads to marginal depreciation in the dollar against its major crosses and thereby extends gain for gold.
There is an inverse correlation between the dollar and gold and that justifies the recent move in the latter.

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Domestic Gold Market and ETF Flows

The domestic gold ETF market experienced significant inflows, totalling $172.4Mn in July 2024. This surge in investment
can be attributed to recent budget changes that reduced the long-term investment qualifying period and associated tax
rates, making gold ETFs a more attractive option for investors.
Seasonal Demand Considerations
Historically, the precious metals market sees declines in September. However, there are indications that the upcoming
festive and wedding seasons could spur demand, potentially offsetting some of the downward pressures that typically
affect gold prices during this time. Analysts remain cautiously optimistic about gold's resilience as investors await signs of
sustained demand.

Conclusion
The gold market for August 2024 was shaped by a complex interplay of geopolitical uncertainties, economic indicators,
and evolving monetary policies. While the rise in gold prices indicates a robust interest in the asset, the market remains
susceptible to ongoing volatility stemming from both political and economic developments. As the market transitions
into September, one should keep a close watch on rate decisions from the Federal Reserve and emerging geopolitical
events that could further impact gold prices. Our view on gold remains positive and continue to suggest having an
allocation in your portfolio.

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Silver
Demand & Supply
In the last three years there has been a deficit (demand exceeding supply) for silver which supported the prices. The trend
for industrial demand for silver is increasing since 2020 and has reached at all highs.

Source: MOFSL

Outlook
As per MOFSL research, Silver has a strong demand outlook based on the following reasons:
• Industrial demand boost
• Boost in Manufacturing and Industrial activity in China
• Potential for pickup in Green tech

Projections for Gold & Silver prices (In USD for CY2024)

Source: MOFSL, CMP as on 5th Jan 2024

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Gold vs. Silver vs. Indian Equity

Asset Class Equity-IND Gold Silver Equity – Silver

Correlaon Gold (INR)
IND (INR)
CAGR from 1990 to 2024* 14.2% 10.3% 7.3%
Standard Deviaon 26.8% 14.7% 26.5%
Equity - IND 1.00
Maximum Drawdown -55.1% -25.1% -54.0%
Maximum Returns - 3Y 59.6% 32.2% 26.3%
Gold (INR) -0.04 1.00
Minimum Returns - 3Y -15.6% -7.3% -18.4%
Average Returns - 3Y 12.9% 10.2% 11.9%
Silver (INR) 0.12 0.69 1.00
Posive Observaons (%) - 3Y 86.3% 85.0% 76.5%
Note: Correlation analysis is based on Month end return basis over last
% Observaons 32 years
Returns Distribuon Source: MOWM, Bloomberg
(3Y Rolling Returns) Equity-IND Gold Silver
Ø Silver exhibits volatility similar to
-20% to -10% 2.9% 0.0% 9.7% Indian Equities (Based on Std.
-10% to 0% 10.8% 15.0% 14.3% Deviation on Monthly Returns,
0% to 6% 19.9% 19.2% 15.7% Maximum drawdown)
6% to 10% 14.2% 14.7% 6.9%
10% to 15% 19.2% 20.7% 12.0% Ø Hence, While Gold can have a
15% to 20% 10.2% 13.9% 11.1% strategic allocation in portfolios,
20% to 30% 9.2% 16.0% 14.7% Silver should be consider only for
Above 30% 13.6% 0.5% 16.1% tactical allocation
STD is based on monthly returns, *CAGR is for period 1990 to 31st Aug’ 24;. Equity-IND is represented by Sensex from 1990 to 2002 and Nifty 50 from 2002 onwards; MCX Spot Gold
price in INR from 2006 till date; S&P 500 in INR 1990 onwards; Silver – USD Silver converted in INR. Disclaimer : Past Performance is no guarantee of future Results

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Section III

Advisory Approach ..............................................................................................42

4C Manager Selection Framework .....................................................................45

Hind-sight Investing.............................................................................................47

Decoding Investment Style ...................................................................................48

Estate Planning ...................................................................................................49

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This document is not valid without disclosure; refer the last page for the disclosure
 Alpha Strategist | ‘Goldilocks & Three Bears’

Advisory Approach
Investment Charter – Purpose & Objectives

Define • Example: Portfolio designed to provide stability and protection from loss. Primary goal is
Investment capital preservation with moderate growth
Objective • Define any liquidity or cash flow requirements from the portfolio

• Degree of risk you are willing to undertake to achieve investment objectives

Risk Tolerance
• Understanding that portfolio returns and portfolio risk are positively correlated

• Defining investment horizon, consistent with risk tolerance and return expectations
Investment
• The longer the investment tenure, the greater likelihood of achieving investment
Horizon
objectives

• Return expectations has to be viewed in conjunction with risk undertaken, and the
Return investment horizon
Expectations • Ensuring return maximization, for a given level of risk
• Optimizing returns through tax efficiency & legal mechanisms

Portfolio Process
Define & Review
Investment
Objectives

Ongoing Design Investment

Monitoring & Charter In Line
Evaluation With Objectives

Implement Analyze Existing

Portfolio Changes Portfolio

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Sample Investment Charter

General Information & Client Profile
Particulars Details
Portfolio Characteristics Portfolio designed to provide stability and protection from loss. Primary goal is capital
preservation with moderate growth
Investment Horizon 3 to 5 Years

Liquidity Requirements 5% of the portfolio to be available for redemptions within 2 working days
80% of the portfolio to be available for redemptions within 7 working days
Cash Flow Requirements No cashflows required from portfolio

Restricted Investments No exposure to a single issuer real estate NCD

Performance Benchmarking Fixed Income – CRISIL Short Term Index

Liquid Assets – CRISIL Liquid Fund Index
Monthly Basis – Portfolio Advisor
Portfolio Review Quarterly Basis – Head of Investment Advisory
Annual Basis – CEO
Review of Guidelines Guidelines to be reviewed every quarter and / or at the discretion of client / financial advisor

Investment Charter – Asset Allocation Guidelines

Mandate Criteria Portfolio Compliance
Equity (Mutual Funds, Direct Equity, AIFs) –
Equity – 3.7%
Fixed Income (Mutual Funds, Structures, AIFs, Direct Debt) –
Alternatives (Real Estate, Private Equity, Long Short Funds) –
Liquid Assets (Liquid, Ultra Short-Term, and Arbitrage Funds) Fixed Income – 85.3%
Asset Allocation –
Liquid Assets – 11.0%

Return
Expectations1 8% to 10% Pre Tax 8.2%
Investment Time
3 Years to 5 Years 2.4 Years
Horizon2
1
Return expectations for portfolio since inception for active and closed holdings. There is no guarantee that the performance will be achieved.
2
Average age of portfolio holding – Including Closed Holdings
Investment Charter – Exposure Guidelines
Mandate Criteria Portfolio Compliance
Large Cap (Top 100 Companies) – Large Cap – 48.2%
Market Cap Limits Mid Cap (101 to 250th Company) – Mid Cap – 23.2%
Small Cap (251st Company Onwards) – Small Cap – 28.6%
Interest Rate Risk Modified Duration – Mod Duration – 1.85
AAA and Above – 60.2%
Credit Quality AA & Above – 80.3%
A & Below – 19.8%
Closed Ended
Maximum allocation to closed ended investments – 14%
Investments
Mutual Funds & Single AMC – Fund House A – 19.2%
Managed Accounts Single Scheme – Fund B – 13.7%

Issuer 1 – 8.4%
Other Instruments Single Instrument-
Instrument 1 – 8.4%

Proprietary Products Own AMC/ Self-Managed Funds/ Structures/ Debt - AMC 1 – 12.1%

Green indicates compliance, meaning it is matching the criteria, while Blue indicates non-compliance, meaning it is not matching the criteria
SEPTEMBER 2024 | ISSUE 141 43
 Alpha Strategist | ‘Goldilocks & Three Bears’

Our Methodology
True portfolio of clients and asset allocation is best determined through Financial Planning strategy. If not, the clients
can follow a model portfolio approach. Following steps are followed for Model Portfolio construction:
1) Investors are classified according to their risk profile viz. Aggressive, Moderately Aggressive, Balanced, Moderately
Conservative and Conservative.
2) Asset Allocation is done at two levels:
(a) Static – Based on the risk profile, asset allocation is defined at a broad level:

Asset Class / RiskProfile Equity (%) Debt (%) Cash (%) Gold (%)

Conservative 0.0% 85.0% 10.0% 5.0%

Moderate 20.0% 60.0% 10.0% 5.0%
Balanced 40.0% 40.0% 10.0% 10.0%
Growth 65.0% 20.0% 5.0% 10.0%
Aggressive 85.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0%

(b) Dynamic – Asset Allocation based on the market conditions

Since different clients have different risk return preferences, based on our comprehensive risk profiling process we have
categorized the clients broadly into 5 categories viz. Conservative (Debt only), Balanced, Aggressive + (High conviction),
Aggressive + (PMS/AIF only), Aggressive + (MF only).

Advisory Process
We follow a robust Advisory Process to generate “Alpha” in the client’s portfolio. The entire approach is governed by a
stringent risk management framework.

Product & Advisory

Committee
View on asset Portfolio
classes Construction
Asset Allocation Product Selection
Alpha across asset classes
Manager Alpha

Investment
Financial Strategy
Committee

SEPTEMBER 2024 | ISSUE 141 44

 Alpha Strategist | ‘Goldilocks & Three Bears’

4C Manager Selection Framework

The 4C Manager Selection Process

Evaluating Equity Manager Expertise

SEPTEMBER 2024 | ISSUE 141 45

 Alpha Strategist | ‘Goldilocks & Three Bears’

Evaluating Fixed Income Manager Expertise

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 Alpha Strategist | ‘Goldilocks & Three Bears’

Hind-sight Investing
We are well aware of the disclaimer “past performance is no guarantee of future results”. Despite this the most common
method of investing in mutual funds remains by looking at the past performance. It’s quite intuitive to assume that
something that was a good investment in the recent past is still a good investment.
However, it’s not that simple. Our study shows that there is a limited probability of getting investment decisions right
which are solely based on historical data. Let us illustrate this with some examples of the recent past.
The below table comprises of last 22 years of data which to our mind is comprehensive. Funds were ranked based solely
on performance for pre-defined time buckets. As you can see, in the 1 year bucket 35% of the funds continued to be top
performers and 65% could not retain their position. Similarly, in the 3 year bucket 74% of the funds could not retain their
position.

st st
Review period: 31 Jan 2000 - 31 Dec. 2023
Investments in top performing funds based on 1 – 3 yr track record

Invest in top funds (Q1) Invest in top funds (Q1) Invest in top funds (Q1)
basis 1 yr performance basis 1 yr performance basis 3 yr performance

Quartile Rank Quartile Rank Quartile Rank

after 1 year after 3 years after 3 years

Q1 - 31% Q1 - 25% Q1 - 25%

Q2 - 23% Q2 - 26% Q2 - 28%

Q3 - 24% Q3 - 23% Q3 - 24%

Q4 – 22% Q4 – 26% Q4 – 24%

The top 25% of the funds on basis of performance are assigned Q1, next 25% are assigned Q2 and so on.
If we translate the above numbers in terms of probability, your chance of selecting a top performing fund basis past
performance is lesser than winning a coin toss!
Just like we don't drive a car looking at the rear view mirror, investment decisions too should not be based on mere past
performance. In fact to our mind one needs to go beyond the norm of return based analysis to arrive at investment
decisions.
As the age old adage goes “bet on the jockey, not the horse”, the same holds true for investment wherein you lay your bet
on the manager and not the fund. So how does one go about it? In line with our philosophy of empowering you, we take
this opportunity to provide you an understanding of our “manager selection methodology”.
(Methodology notes: Date range period 2000-2023, calendar year returns, all open-ended equity schemes, AUM cut off
250cr as on 31st Dec 2023)

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 Alpha Strategist | ‘Goldilocks & Three Bears’

Decoding Investment Style

Past performance is just the tip of the iceberg - A consistent and a transparent portfolio management approach
contributes to the sustainable long term returns
As investors and advisors, we tend to get swayed by the recent past performance while making our investment
decisions and overlook the underlying philosophy and process which would contribute towards the future returns.
Moreover, history suggests that the process for selecting funds only on the basis of past performance may not be a full
proof procedure in the future. Thus, we believe that in generating sustainable long term performance, skill plays a
major role rather than luck and to assess the skills of a fund manager, it becomes pertinent to understand the
consistency in their fund management approach.
Like any sportsman who demonstrates their styles in different terrains, we are of the view that every manager has a
different style and approach for stock picking and portfolio construction. Through our detailed due diligence process,
we aim to understand the capabilities, consistency and experience of the Fund manager and substantiate their
investment style with their past and current investments.
Through our analysis and research, we have devised a ‘Fund Stylometer’ which basically states that an investment style
oscillates between two extremes of investing i.e. Goldilocks & Three Bears and Earnings Momentum while the other
blended styles of investment like Value, Blended and Growth lies in between the two extremes. When a manager sticks
to picking stocks which are out of favor or below their average valuations and expect these stocks to revert back, then
these managers are demonstrating a Goldilocks & Three Bears investment style. For example, ICICI Fund Managers are
known for their value style of investing. On the other hand, if the manager foresees a sustainable growth in the earnings
of a company and is ready to pay a premium for the stock, then the fund manager belongs to growth style of investing.
For example, Motilal Oswal Fund Managers believe in ‘QGLP’ and exhibit earnings momentum investment style.
In an investment world where more choices may lead to more confusion, it is important to understand the style of the
Fund Manager rather than the standalone performance of the funds. Also, since different managers exhibit their
strengths in different market conditions, it is viable to construct a portfolio with appropriate combination of
investment styles which in turn would minimize duplication and over diversification.
To put into the perspective of quantifiable numbers, we have exhibited the styles of the managers through portfolio
attributes (P/E, P/B and RoE) over a period of three years, as shown in the bubble chart. The bubble chart aims to show
the relative positioning of each fund with respect to their investment style with the peers and benchmark. For
example, a fund with relatively low P/B and low P/E would represent a Goldilocks & Three Bears style of investing, while
a fund with relatively high P/B, high P/E and higher RoE would represent earnings momentum style. Except for a few
funds, most of the funds represent a blended investment style which is a mix of value and growth style
Positioning of Multi Cap Funds (Sample)
ICICI Pru India Opp Fund(G) Invesco India Contra Fund(G) Parag Parikh Flexi Cap Fund-Reg(G) Kotak Equity Opp Fund(G)
Kotak Flexicap Fund(G) WOC Flexi Cap Fund-Reg(G) Aditya Birla SL Flexi Cap Fund(G) HDFC Flexi Cap Fund(G)

64.0
Bubble size : ROE
59.0 High P/E
54.0
49.0
Price to Earnings (P/E)

44.0
39.0 14.2 16.5
34.0
14.3 15.9
Low P/B High P/B
29.0 11.3
24.0 15.5 24.3 Mean Value Blended Growth Earnings
Reversion Momentum
19.0
14.0
Low P/E
9.0
1.3 2.3 3.3 4.3 5.3 6.3 7.3 8.3 9.3 10.3
Price to Book (P/B)

Period: Nov. 2022 - Dec. 2022

Note: Over a period of 3 years, X Axis represents monthly average of P/B , Y Axis represents monthly average of P/E ,
Size of the bubble represents monthly average of RoE

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 Alpha Strategist | ‘Goldilocks & Three Bears’

Estate Planning
Can I draft a will that benefits my family as per my terms?
You can draft a will for all your assets. The will should have details of the beneficiaries and details of all assets and
investments. The will should then specify the distribution of assets as per your wishes.
Do remember to update your will periodically to reflect changes in your assets, beneficiaries, or other circumstances.
(iStock)
Case Study:
I am 54-years-old and live with my wife and son . I own the house we live in as well as the adjacent house in which my
mother resides. Additionally, I have investments in PPF (public provident fund) account, and various other assets. I
am planning to write a will with my wife as the sole beneficiary. In case she predeceases me, I want the assets to go to
my son. I want my mother to retain the flat till her demise, whereupon my son should get custody of that house. How
do I accomplish all this with a will?
As per your query, we assume that you are is a Hindu. Further, we understand that there is no right or interest of any
other person in your properties and that the same were held only by you. We further understand that these are self-
earned and self- created.
In a situation like this, the first option is creating a will.
You can draft a will for all your assets. The will should have details of the beneficiaries and details of all assets and
investments. The will should then specify the distribution of assets as per your wishes.
With reference to the flat where your mother is residing, you should specify the property and insert a “life interest"
clause to create a living interest for your mother. The life interest clause should specify clearly that you want your
mother to enjoy the property for her lifetime. The property on which such a life interest is created cannot be sold,
mortgaged or alienated by any method by any other person for the lifetime of your mother, thus will allow your mother
to enjoy the property without any complications.
The will should be dated and signed by you and attested by at least two witnesses (preferably younger to you), appoint
the executor in the will and have the same registered (this is optional).
In case of your demise, the executor has to seek probate on your will and distribute the assets as per your wishes.
The second option is to create a private family trust.
However, you would either have to transfer the property in the trust which will attract stamp duty levied at the market
rate or make a provision in your will that the property gets bequeathed to the private trust upon your demise.
Here, the trust can have the terms where your mother will have the right to enjoy the property during her lifetime and
only then will that be given to your wife or son.
A private trust is an effective vehicle to ensure a proper succession plan and does not require probate to transfer/
benefit from the property.
Do remember to update your will periodically to reflect changes in your assets, beneficiaries, or other circumstances.

Neha Pathak is head of trust and Estate Planning, Motilal Oswal Private Wealth.

Source:
https://www.livemint.com/money/personal-finance/creating-a-will-to-secure-the-future-a-guide-for-hindu-
individuals-with-multiple-beneficiaries-and-assets-11692723401041.html

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 Alpha Strategist | ‘Goldilocks & Three Bears’

Section IV
Managed Strategies - PMS & AIF ............................................................................51

Managed Strategies - MF .......................................................................................59

Client Onboarding Checklist ...................................................................................65

Investment Charter Template .................................................................................68

Readers Speak .......................................................................................................69

SEPTEMBER 2024 | ISSUE 141 50

This document is not valid without disclosure; refer the last page for the disclosure
 Alpha Strategist | ‘Goldilocks & Three Bears’

Managed Strategies - PMS & AIF

Name of the Fund Motilal Oswal Value Migration PMS Motilal Oswal Value Migration AIF Motilal Oswal NTDOP PMS Motilal Oswal Vision 2030 AIF Nifty 50 TRI Nifty 500 TRI

Category Multi Cap Multi cap Multi cap Multi cap

Fund Manager Vaibhav Agarwal Vaibhav Agarwal Vaibhav Agarwal Vaibhav Agarwal
Inception Date 18-02-2003 07-09-2020 03-08-2007 12-05-2022
AUM (in Rs cr) as on July 2474 85 6465 783
2024
Investment Style Growth Growth Growth Growth
Number of Stocks 24 23 32 37 50 500
Returns (%)
1 Month 5.1 4.6 5.4 4.2 3.6 4.0
3 Month 15.9 19.5 12.0 9.0 10.5 12.2
6 Month 24.0 28.2 16.6 14.9 16.4 20.5
1 Year 60.2 66.7 48.5 49.1 27.4 38.7
3 Year 24.7 27.9 14.9 17.7 20.9
5 Year 22.5 18.2 18.8 22.3
Risk Measures (3Y)
Standard Deviation (%) 6.6 6.1 5.3 6.8
Beta 0.9 0.8 0.8 1.0
1 Year Rolling Return (%)
Postive observations 87.8 71.4 93.9 97.3
Average Return 22.2 19.3 20.9 14.7
Minimum Return -6.9 -12.1 -1.6 -3.1
Maximum Return 61.8 67.1 72.5 29.0
3 Year Rolling Return (%)
Postive observations 97.3 90.4 98.6 97.3
Average Return 11.4 11.0 14.4 14.7
Minimum Return -3.7 -4.6 -0.8 -3.1
Maximum Return 24.7 20.5 27.8 29.0
Valuations
PE 64.2 62.4 47.0 57.2 22.7 26.1
PB 9.3 8.9 4.5 5.6 3.8 4.1
ROE (%) 14.4 14.2 9.6 9.7 16.6 15.6
Portfolio Composition-
Kalyan Jewellers India
Kalyan Jewellers India Ltd. 6.9 7.2 Piramal Enterprises Ltd. 5.3 Suzlon Energy Ltd 4.5 HDFC Bank Ltd. 11.9 HDFC Bank Ltd. 6.9
Limited
Suzlon Energy Ltd. 6.9 Suzlon Energy Ltd 6.7 Suzlon Energy Ltd. 4.9 Piramal Enterprises Limited 4.2 Reliance Industries Ltd. 9.9 ICICI Bank Ltd. 4.6

Zomato Ltd. 6.6 Zomato Limited 6.6 Zomato Ltd. 4.7 Zomato Limited 4.1 ICICI Bank Ltd. 7.9 Infosys Ltd. 3.1
Apar Industries Ltd. 5.4 Apar Industries Ltd 5.3 Jsw Energy Ltd. 4.3 Jsw Energy Limited 3.7 Infosys Ltd. 5.3 Larsen & Toubro Ltd. 2.3
Prestige Estates Projects Prestige Estates Projects
Prestige Estates Projects Ltd. 5.2 5.1 Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd. 4.0 3.2 Larsen & Toubro Ltd. 3.9 Tata Consultancy Services Ltd. 2.2
Limited Limited
Mahindra & Mahindra Kalyan Jewellers India Tata Consultancy Services
Bharat Electronics Ltd. 5.1 Trent Ltd. 5.0 3.9 3.2 3.7 ITC Ltd. 2.1
Top 10 Stocks (%) Financial Services Ltd. Limited Ltd.
Trent Ltd. 4.9 Bharat Electronics Ltd 5.0 Kalyan Jewellers India Ltd. 3.7 Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd 3.2 ITC Ltd. 3.7 Bharti Airtel Ltd. 2.1

Inox Wind Ltd. 4.3 Religare Enterprises Ltd. 4.6 Bse Ltd. 3.6 Inox Wind Limited 3.1 Bharti Airtel Ltd. 3.6 Axis Bank Ltd. 2.0

Mahindra And Mahindra

Kaynes Technology India Ltd. 4.3 Inox Wind Limited 4.4 Inox Wind Ltd. 3.6 3.1 Axis Bank Ltd. 3.4 State Bank Of India 1.8
Financial Services Limited
Kaynes Technology India Cg Power And Industrial Cg Power And Industrial
Phoenix Mills Ltd. 4.1 4.3 3.5 3.1 State Bank Of India 3.1 Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd. 1.5
Limited Solutions Ltd. Solutions Limited
Others 46.4 Others 45.9 Others 58.6 Others 64.7 Others 43.6 Others 71.4
Industrials 37.4 Industrials 37.3 Industrials 28.6 Industrials 23.8 Financial Services 40.3 Financial Services 24.3
Fast Moving Consumer
Consumer Discretionary 31.1 Consumer Discretionary 31.3 Financial Services 25.7 Financial Services 20.8 13.6 Consumer Discretionary 16.1
Goods
Top 5 Sectors (%) Financial Services 12.8 Financial Services 14.1 Consumer Discretionary 23.5 Consumer Discretionary 20.1 Information Technology 9.9 Industrials 10.5
Commodities 6.4 Commodities 7.0 Information Technology 8.1 Information Technology 6.6 Consumer Discretionary 9.9 Commodities 9.9

Information Technology 4.0 Information Technology 3.8 Commodities 5.9 Commodities 4.7 Commodities 7.9 Fast Moving Consumer Goods 6.7

Concentration (%)
Top 5 30.9 30.8 23.1 19.7 39.0 19.0
Top 10 53.6 54.1 41.5 35.3 56.4 28.6
Market Capitalisation
Large Cap (%) 23.7 23.7 36.8 30.2 100.0 71.9
Mid Cap (%) 42.0 42.0 33.6 28.1 0.0 17.6
Small Cap (%) 32.6 34.3 28.9 23.9 0.0 9.8
Wt. Avg Market Cap (in Rs Cr) 7,94,730 7,97,142 14,46,000 11,87,887 71,64,397 27,92,991

st
*PE PB for Indices are from Bloomberg - * Portfolio & Returns on 31 July, 2024, Past performance may or may not be sustained in future
**Rolling Returns on a monthly basis: 1 Year time period – July 20 – July 24, 3 Year time period – July 18 – July 24
Standard Deviation, 1Yr & 3 Yr rolling returns and ROE are in %. Beta, PE & PB are trailing and in multiples (x)
SEPTEMBER 2024 | ISSUE 141 51
 Alpha Strategist | ‘Goldilocks & Three Bears’

Name of the Fund Motilal Oswal BOP PMS Motilal Oswal Founders PMS Motilal Oswal Founders AIF Motilal Oswal Founders AIF S2 Nifty 50 TRI Nifty 500 TRI

Category Multi Cap Multi Cap Multi Cap Multi Cap

Fund Manager Atul Mehra Vaibhav Agarwal Vaibhav Agarwal Vaibhav Agarwal
Inception Date 18-12-2017 16-03-2023 01-02-2023 01-08-2023
AUM (in Rs cr) as on July 1512 1624 1813 804
2024
Investment Style Growth Growth Growth Growth
Number of Stocks 24 26 26 27 50 500
Returns (%)
1 Month 4.8 5.6 5.1 4.5 3.6 4.0
3 Month 15.2 16.9 16.8 14.6 10.5 12.2
6 Month 22.0 26.1 26.7 23.0 16.4 20.5
1 Year 43.6 60.9 58.9 27.4 38.7
3 Year 21.5 17.7 20.9
5 Year 22.1 18.8 22.3
Risk Measures (3Y)
Standard Deviation (%) 4.1 5.3 6.8
Beta 0.8 0.8 1.0
1 Year Rolling Return (%)
Postive observations 91.8 93.9 97.3
Average Return 21.3 20.9 14.7
Minimum Return -4.8 -1.6 -3.1
Maximum Return 64.0 72.5 29.0
3 Year Rolling Return (%)
Postive observations 100.0 98.6 97.3
Average Return 16.0 14.4 14.7
Minimum Return 8.9 -0.8 -3.1
Maximum Return 23.0 27.8 29.0
Valuations
PE 64.3 67.1 68.8 76.0 22.7 26.1
PB 9.2 6.6 6.4 7.1 3.8 4.1
ROE (%) 14.4 9.9 9.4 9.4 16.6 15.6
Portfolio Composition-
Zomato Ltd. 6.6 Zomato Ltd. 6.5 Zomato Limited 6.5 Zomato Limited 6.0 HDFC Bank Ltd. 11.9 HDFC Bank Ltd. 6.9
Kalyan Jewellers India Kalyan Jewellers India
6.6 Suzlon Energy Ltd. 6.1 Suzlon Energy Ltd 6.0 5.6 Reliance Industries Ltd. 9.9 ICICI Bank Ltd. 4.6
Ltd. Limited
Kalyan Jewellers India Kalyan Jewellers India
Suzlon Energy Ltd. 6.3 6.0 5.8 Suzlon Energy Ltd 5.0 ICICI Bank Ltd. 7.9 Infosys Ltd. 3.1
Ltd. Limited
Prestige Estates Projects Prestige Estates Projects Prestige Estates Projects
5.2 5.2 4.8 Ptc Industries Limited 4.5 Infosys Ltd. 5.3 Larsen & Toubro Ltd. 2.3
Ltd. Ltd. Limited
Titagarh Rail Systems Tata Consultancy Services
Bharat Electronics Ltd. 5.2 Apar Industries Ltd. 5.0 Apar Industries Ltd 4.6 4.4 Larsen & Toubro Ltd. 3.9 2.2
Limited Ltd.
Tata Consultancy Services
Top 10 Stocks (%) Trent Ltd. 5.0 Inox Wind Ltd. 5.0 Ptc Industries Limited 4.4 Apar Industries Ltd 4.3 3.7 ITC Ltd. 2.1
Ltd.
Kaynes Technology India
Apar Industries Ltd. 4.9 4.8 Inox Wind Limited 4.4 Inox Wind Limited 4.2 ITC Ltd. 3.7 Bharti Airtel Ltd. 2.1
Ltd.
Archean Chemical Archean Chemical
Inox Wind Ltd. 4.4 Ptc Industries Ltd. 4.4 4.3 4.0 Bharti Airtel Ltd. 3.6 Axis Bank Ltd. 2.0
Industries Limited Industries Limited
Kaynes Technology India Piramal Enterprises
4.3 Trent Ltd. 4.3 Trent Ltd. 4.3 4.0 Axis Bank Ltd. 3.4 State Bank Of India 1.8
Ltd. Limited
Archean Chemical Kaynes Technology India Mahindra & Mahindra
Phoenix Mills Ltd. 4.1 4.1 4.2 Trent Ltd. 3.9 State Bank Of India 3.1 1.5
Industries Ltd. Limited Ltd.
Others 47.4 Others 48.6 Others 50.8 Others 54.4 Others 43.6 Others 71.4
Industrials 36.8 Consumer Discretionary 33.7 Consumer Discretionary 34.8 Industrials 31.2 Financial Services 40.3 Financial Services 24.3
Fast Moving Consumer
Consumer Discretionary 31.2 Industrials 31.6 Industrials 31.3 Consumer Discretionary 29.5 13.6 Consumer Discretionary 16.1
Goods
Top 5 Sectors (%) Financial Services 13.4 Financial Services 12.8 Financial Services 12.1 Financial Services 10.4 Information Technology 9.9 Industrials 10.5
Commodities 6.3 Commodities 6.6 Commodities 7.6 Commodities 7.5 Consumer Discretionary 9.9 Commodities 9.9
Fast Moving Consumer Fast Moving Consumer
Information Technology 3.5 Information Technology 3.8 Information Technology 4.1 3.6 Commodities 7.9 6.7
Goods Goods
Concentration (%)
Top 5 30.0 28.8 27.7 25.3 39.0 19.0
Top 10 52.6 51.4 49.2 45.6 56.4 28.6
Market Capitalisation
Large Cap (%) 24.3 14.1 13.3 12.7 100.0 71.9
Mid Cap (%) 39.7 41.9 41.0 35.5 0.0 17.6
Small Cap (%) 33.0 38.1 41.1 40.5 0.0 9.8
Wt. Avg Market Cap (in Rs Cr) 7,96,814 6,06,908 6,01,318 5,40,083 71,64,397 27,92,991

*PE PB for Indices are from Bloomberg - * Portfolio & Returns on 31st July, 2024, Past performance may or may not be sustained in future
**Rolling Returns on a monthly basis: 1 Year time period – July 20 – July 24, 3 Year time period – July 18 – July 24
Standard Deviation, 1Yr & 3 Yr rolling returns and ROE are in %. Beta, PE & PB are trailing and in multiples (x)
SEPTEMBER 2024 | ISSUE 141 52
 Alpha Strategist | ‘Goldilocks & Three Bears’

Name of the Fund Motilal Oswal Business Advantage Abakkus All Cap PMS Helios India Rising PMS Marathon Trend Following PMS Nifty 50 TRI Nifty 500 TRI
Fund
Category Multi Cap Multi Cap Multi Cap Multi Cap
Fund Manager Vaibhav Agarwal Sunil Singhania Dinshaw Irani Atul Suri
Inception Date 31-08-2020 30-10-2020 16-03-2020 01-04-2023
AUM (in Rs cr) as on July 808 6957 1423 386
2024
Investment Style Growth GARP GARP Growth
Number of Stocks 31 29 39 21 50 500
Returns (%)
1 Month 4.9 2.0 2.8 2.5 3.6 4.0
3 Month 16.0 8.1 8.7 13.1 10.5 12.2
6 Month 24.0 15.2 9.0 20.6 16.4 20.5
1 Year 69.5 32.7 40.3 44.1 27.4 38.7
3 Year 23.4 19.0 19.6 17.7 20.9
5 Year 18.8 22.3
Risk Measures (3Y)
Standard Deviation (%) 5.3 6.8
Beta 0.8 1.0
1 Year Rolling Return (%)
Postive observations 68.6 80.5 93.9 97.3
Average Return 24.8 26.4 20.9 14.7
Minimum Return -17.0 -6.3 -1.6 -3.1
Maximum Return 74.3 61.7 72.5 29.0
3 Year Rolling Return (%)
Postive observations 98.6 97.3
Average Return 14.4 14.7
Minimum Return -0.8 -3.1
Maximum Return 27.8 29.0
Valuations
PE 45.6 25.4 37.0 44.8 22.7 26.1
PB 5.2 3.8 5.3 8.4 3.8 4.1
ROE (%) 11.4 15.0 14.4 18.7 16.6 15.6
Portfolio Composition-
Kalyan Jewellers India Sun Pharmaceutical
4.9 5.4 State Bank Of India 7.4 Apar Industries Ltd 5.2 HDFC Bank Ltd. 11.9 HDFC Bank Ltd. 6.9
Limited Industries Limited
Kirloskar Oil Engines
4.5 State Bank Of India 5.3 Hdfc Bank Ltd 6.8 Persistent Systems Ltd 5.0 Reliance Industries Ltd. 9.9 ICICI Bank Ltd. 4.6
Limited
Zomato Limited 4.3 Ntpc Limited 5.1 Icici Bank Ltd 6.3 Siemens Ltd 5.0 ICICI Bank Ltd. 7.9 Infosys Ltd. 3.1
Max Financial Services Rural Electrification
Suzlon Energy Ltd 4.2 4.9 Zomato Ltd 5.8 4.9 Infosys Ltd. 5.3 Larsen & Toubro Ltd. 2.3
Limited Corporation Limited
Bharat Heavy Electricals Adani Ports And Special Tata Consultancy Services
4.1 Jindal Stainless Limited 4.9 4.3 Federal Bank Limited 4.8 Larsen & Toubro Ltd. 3.9 2.2
Ltd Economic Zone Ltd Ltd.
Top 10 Stocks (%) Piramal Enterprises Kpit Technologies Tata Consultancy Services
4.0 Hcl Technologies Limited 4.9 Varun Beverages Ltd 4.2 4.8 3.7 ITC Ltd. 2.1
Limited Limited Ltd.
Angel One Limited 4.0 Polycab India Limited 4.5 Bharti Airtel Ltd 3.7 Abb India Limited 4.8 ITC Ltd. 3.7 Bharti Airtel Ltd. 2.1
Larsen And Toubro Tata Consultancy Services Sun Pharmaceuticals
Inox Wind Limited 3.9 4.5 3.5 4.7 Bharti Airtel Ltd. 3.6 Axis Bank Ltd. 2.0
Limited Ltd Industries Limited
Prestige Estates Projects Aditya Birla Capital
3.9 4.2 Kpit Technologies Ltd 3.3 Bharat Electronics Ltd 4.6 Axis Bank Ltd. 3.4 State Bank Of India 1.8
Limited Limited
Mahindra & Mahindra
Pricol Limited 3.7 Indusind Bank Limited 4.2 Ntpc Ltd 3.2 Kei Industries Ltd. 4.6 State Bank Of India 3.1 1.5
Ltd.
Others 58.4 Others 52.1 Others 51.5 Others 51.8 Others 43.6 Others 71.4
Industrials 31.8 Financial Services 32.7 Financial Services 35.0 Industrials 32.7 Financial Services 40.3 Financial Services 24.3
Fast Moving Consumer
Consumer Discretionary 29.0 Commodities 12.2 Consumer Discretionary 16.0 Financial Services 18.6 13.6 Consumer Discretionary 16.1
Goods
Fast Moving Consumer
Top 5 Sectors (%) Financial Services 21.3 Industrials 11.8 7.1 Consumer Discretionary 13.1 Information Technology 9.9 Industrials 10.5
Goods
Energy 3.0 Healthcare 7.0 Information Technology 6.8 Information Technology 9.8 Consumer Discretionary 9.9 Commodities 9.9
Fast Moving Consumer Fast Moving Consumer
Commodities 2.5 Information Technology 7.0 Utilities 5.3 8.8 Commodities 7.9 6.7
Goods Goods
Concentration (%)
Top 5 22.1 25.6 30.7 24.7 39.0 19.0
Top 10 41.6 47.9 48.5 48.2 56.4 28.6
Market Capitalisation
Large Cap (%) 22.1 39.4 56.8 46.0 100.0 71.9
Mid Cap (%) 28.9 25.5 11.7 23.8 0.0 17.6
Small Cap (%) 38.2 21.3 20.8 12.9 0.0 9.8
Wt. Avg Market Cap (in Rs Cr) 8,34,624 20,47,618 39,95,968 1,06,301 71,64,397 27,92,991

*PE PB for Indices are from Bloomberg - * Portfolio & Returns on 31st July, 2024, Past performance may or may not be sustained in future
**Rolling Returns on a monthly basis: 1 Year time period – July 20 – July 24, 3 Year time period – July 18 – July 24
Standard Deviation, 1Yr & 3 Yr rolling returns and ROE are in %. Beta, PE & PB are trailing and in multiples (x)
SEPTEMBER 2024 | ISSUE 141 53
 Alpha Strategist | ‘Goldilocks & Three Bears’

Name of the Fund Old Bridge All Cap PMS Old Bridge Long Term Equity AIF Invesco DAWN Invesco RISE PMS Nifty 50 TRI Nifty 500 TRI

Category Multi Cap Multi Cap Multi Cap Multi Cap

Fund Manager Kenneth Andrade Kenneth Andrade Neelesh Dhamnaskar Neelesh Dhamnaskar
Inception Date 31-08-2016 22-05-2019 28-08-2017 18-04-2016
AUM (in Rs cr) as on July 1611 1600 341 423
2024
Investment Style Value Value Value Value
Number of Stocks 10 10 26 26 50 500
Returns (%)
1 Month 6.7 4.8 3.9 4.3 3.6 4.0
3 Month 14.5 11.7 11.1 15.8 10.5 12.2
6 Month 17.7 20.7 20.8 20.0 16.4 20.5
1 Year 43.8 48.0 43.2 45.6 27.4 38.7
3 Year 22.5 23.3 23.7 21.6 17.7 20.9
5 Year 28.4 27.3 22.4 24.3 18.8 22.3
Risk Measures (3Y)
Standard Deviation (%) 12.2 8.6 8.8 5.3 6.8
Beta 1.6 1.4 1.2 0.8 1.0
1 Year Rolling Return (%)
Postive observations 83.0 83.0 93.9 89.8 93.9 97.3
Average Return 33.4 31.9 24.6 25.6 20.9 14.7
Minimum Return -9.3 -8.5 -4.6 -5.4 -1.6 -3.1
Maximum Return 99.3 104.6 69.7 75.4 72.5 29.0
3 Year Rolling Return (%)
Postive observations 87.7 91.7 87.5 98.6 97.3
Average Return 17.0 15.7 11.4 14.4 14.7
Minimum Return -6.7 -3.3 -8.3 -0.8 -3.1
Maximum Return 37.7 29.7 27.4 27.8 29.0
Valuations
PE 54.8 49.0 28.8 24.0 22.7 26.1
PB 9.7 8.9 4.8 4.0 3.8 4.1
ROE (%) 17.6 18.2 16.8 16.4 16.6 15.6
Portfolio Composition-
Aurobindo Pharma
Aurobindo Pharma Ltd. 7.5 7.2 Icici Bank Ltd. 6.1 Tata Motors Ltd. Dvr 6.8 HDFC Bank Ltd. 11.9 HDFC Bank Ltd. 6.9
Limited
Indian Energy Exchange Action Construction Rural Electrification Corp
6.0 6.4 6.1 Karur Vysya Bank Ltd. 6.6 Reliance Industries Ltd. 9.9 ICICI Bank Ltd. 4.6
Ltd Equipment Limited Limited
Interglobe Aviation Indian Energy Exchange Hindustan Aeronautics Mahindra & Mahindra
5.5 6.3 5.9 6.4 ICICI Bank Ltd. 7.9 Infosys Ltd. 3.1
Limited Limited Ltd. Ltd.
Prestige Estates Projects
5.4 Redington India Limited 6.1 Tata Motors Ltd. 5.6 Bharti Airtel Ltd. 5.0 Infosys Ltd. 5.3 Larsen & Toubro Ltd. 2.3
Ltd
Interglobe Aviation Craftsman Automation Tata Consultancy Services
Shriram Finance Limited 5.3 6.1 Infosys Ltd. 4.7 4.8 Larsen & Toubro Ltd. 3.9 2.2
Top 10 Stocks (%) Limited Ltd. Ltd.
Kaveri Seed Company Tata Consultancy Services
Marksans Pharma Ltd. 5.0 5.8 Zomato Ltd. 4.6 Rolex Rings Ltd. 4.5 3.7 ITC Ltd. 2.1
Limited Ltd.
Redington India Ltd. 4.7 Shriram Finance Limited 5.7 Ultratech Cement Ltd. 4.6 Phoenix Mills Ltd. 4.3 ITC Ltd. 3.7 Bharti Airtel Ltd. 2.1
Glenmark Life Sciences Prestige Estates Projects
4.4 5.4 Axis Bank Ltd. 4.4 Indian Bank 4.2 Bharti Airtel Ltd. 3.6 Axis Bank Ltd. 2.0
Ltd Limited
Larsen & Toubro Ltd. 4.2 Birla Corporation Ltd. 3.9 Axis Bank Ltd. 3.4 State Bank Of India 1.8
Equitas Small Finance Mahindra & Mahindra
Hdfc Bank Ltd. 4.1 3.8 State Bank Of India 3.1 1.5
Bank Ltd. Ltd.
Others 56.2 Others 51.0 Others 49.7 Others 49.7 Others 43.6 Others 71.4
Healthcare 17.0 Services 12.2 Financial Services 26.3 Consumer Discretionary 35.8 Financial Services 40.3 Financial Services 24.3
Fast Moving Consumer
Financial Services 11.3 Financial Services 12.0 Consumer Discretionary 15.7 Financial Services 21.6 13.6 Consumer Discretionary 16.1
Goods
Top 5 Sectors (%) Services 10.2 Healthcare 7.2 Commodities 13.2 Industrials 7.0 Information Technology 9.9 Industrials 10.5
Consumer Discretionary 5.4 Industrials 6.4 Industrials 12.5 Commodities 6.9 Consumer Discretionary 9.9 Commodities 9.9
Fast Moving Consumer Fast Moving Consumer Fast Moving Consumer
0.0 5.8 Information Technology 4.7 Healthcare 5.9 Commodities 7.9 6.7
Goods Goods Goods
Concentration (%)
Top 5 29.7 32.1 28.3 29.5 39.0 19.0
Top 10 43.8 49.0 50.3 50.3 56.4 28.6
Market Capitalisation
Large Cap (%) 10.8 11.8 69.0 23.2 100.0 71.9
Mid Cap (%) 12.9 12.6 10.7 26.9 0.0 17.6
Small Cap (%) 20.2 24.6 8.5 37.3 0.0 9.8
Wt. Avg Market Cap (in Rs Cr) 2,82,644 3,02,292 27,06,705 14,34,079 71,64,397 27,92,991

*PE PB for Indices are from Bloomberg - * Portfolio & Returns on 31st July, 2024, Past performance may or may not be sustained in future
**Rolling Returns on a monthly basis: 1 Year time period – July 20 – July 24, 3 Year time period – July 18 – July 24
Standard Deviation, 1Yr & 3 Yr rolling returns and ROE are in %. Beta, PE & PB are trailing and in multiples (x)
SEPTEMBER 2024 | ISSUE 141 54
 Alpha Strategist | ‘Goldilocks & Three Bears’

Alchemy High Growth Select Stock

Name of the Fund Alchemy High Growth PMS PMS Alchemy ALOT AIF Motilal Oswal Mid to Mega AIF-1 Nifty 50 TRI Nifty 500 TRI

Category Multi Cap Multi Cap Multi Cap Mid & Small cap
Fund Manager Alok Agarwal Hiren Ved Alok Agarwal Rakesh Tarawey
Inception Date 08-05-2002 19-12-2008 03-01-2018 26-07-2021
AUM (in Rs cr) as on July 1113 4579 594 1549
2024
Investment Style GARP GARP GARP Growth
Number of Stocks 27 15 27 28 50 500
Returns (%)
1 Month 3.4 2.5 0.2 3.6 3.6 4.0
3 Month 14.9 14.2 15.4 41.7 10.5 12.2
6 Month 25.4 25.0 26.6 51.7 16.4 20.5
1 Year 56.1 47.0 47.7 94.4 27.4 38.7
3 Year 21.6 22.6 25.0 23.1 17.7 20.9
5 Year 17.5 21.7 26.9 18.8 22.3
Risk Measures (3Y)
Standard Deviation (%) 8.4 8.6 6.9 5.3 6.8
Beta 1.0 1.2 1.4 0.8 1.0
1 Year Rolling Return (%)
Postive observations 66.0 76.6 89.4 93.9 97.3
Average Return 18.5 24.4 30.1 20.9 14.7
Minimum Return -19.1 -15.3 -11.8 -1.6 -3.1
Maximum Return 56.3 78.1 80.8 72.5 29.0
3 Year Rolling Return (%)
Postive observations 79.7 88.4 100.0 98.6 97.3
Average Return 8.4 13.8 21.8 14.4 14.7
Minimum Return -7.7 -4.0 5.9 -0.8 -3.1
Maximum Return 21.8 28.8 32.6 27.8 29.0
Valuations
PE 56.9 48.8 53.5 45.4 22.7 26.1
PB 8.1 6.6 8.4 5.6 3.8 4.1
ROE (%) 14.2 13.6 15.6 12.3 16.6 15.6
Portfolio Composition-
Hindustan Aeronautics
9.8 Ethos Ltd 8.1 Trent Ltd Trent In 9.8 Trent Ltd. 8.9 HDFC Bank Ltd. 11.9 HDFC Bank Ltd. 6.9
Ltd
Dixon Technologies India
Bharat Electronics Ltd 6.8 United Spirits Ltd 8.1 9.8 Indian Bank 6.3 Reliance Industries Ltd. 9.9 ICICI Bank Ltd. 4.6
Ltd Dixon In
Prestige Estates Projects Kalyan Jewellers India
6.5 Divis Laboratories Ltd 7.8 Kddl Ltd Kddl In 8.9 6.1 ICICI Bank Ltd. 7.9 Infosys Ltd. 3.1
Ltd Limited
Tvs Motor Company
Sobha Ltd 6.3 Dlf Ltd 7.7 Abb India Ltd Abb In 8.7 6.1 Infosys Ltd. 5.3 Larsen & Toubro Ltd. 2.3
Limited
United Spirits Ltd Tata Consultancy Services
Suzlon Energy Ltd 5.3 Rec Ltd 7.7 7.1 Apar Industries Ltd 5.3 Larsen & Toubro Ltd. 3.9 2.2
Unitdspr In Ltd.
Top 10 Stocks (%) Info Edge India Ltd Infoe Tata Consultancy Services
Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd 4.7 Sbfc Finance Ltd 7.6 5.9 Global Health Limited 5.3 3.7 ITC Ltd. 2.1
In Ltd.
Aia Engineering Ltd Aiae
Jsw Energy Ltd 4.6 Zomato Ltd 7.5 5.8 Suzlon Energy Ltd 5.1 ITC Ltd. 3.7 Bharti Airtel Ltd. 2.1
In
Jindal Steel And Power Hindustan Aeronautics
Adani Power Ltd 4.4 7.5 5.8 Kei Industries Ltd. 4.1 Bharti Airtel Ltd. 3.6 Axis Bank Ltd. 2.0
Ltd Ltd Hnal In
Ce Info Systems Ltd
Tvs Motor Company Ltd 4.4 Abb India Ltd 7.4 4.0 Polycab India Limited 3.9 Axis Bank Ltd. 3.4 State Bank Of India 1.8
Mapmyind In
Tube Investments Of Mahindra & Mahindra
Ircon International Ltd 4.3 Hitachi Energy India Ltd 7.4 3.5 Idfc First Bank Limited 3.9 State Bank Of India 3.1 1.5
India Lt Tiindia In Ltd.
Others 42.8 Others 23.4 Others 30.6 Others 45.1 Others 43.6 Others 71.4
Industrials 36.0 Consumer Discretionary 23.3 Consumer Discretionary 42.8 Consumer Discretionary 29.3 Financial Services 40.3 Financial Services 24.3
Fast Moving Consumer
Consumer Discretionary 24.6 Industrials 22.0 Industrials 21.8 Industrials 23.4 13.6 Consumer Discretionary 16.1
Goods
Utilities 13.0 Financial Services 15.3 Information Technology 11.9 Financial Services 21.9 Information Technology 9.9 Industrials 10.5
Top 5 Sectors (%)
Fast Moving Consumer
Commodities 6.8 Information Technology 14.2 7.1 Information Technology 6.5 Consumer Discretionary 9.9 Commodities 9.9
Goods
Fast Moving Consumer Fast Moving Consumer
Healthcare 4.2 8.1 Financial Services 5.4 Healthcare 5.3 Commodities 7.9 6.7
Goods Goods
Concentration (%)
Top 5 34.7 39.3 44.3 32.7 39.0 19.0
Top 10 57.2 76.6 69.4 54.9 56.4 28.6
Market Capitalisation
Large Cap (%) 46.9 60.9 37.0 24.3 100.0 71.9
Mid Cap (%) 30.1 7.3 37.5 48.3 0.0 17.6
Small Cap (%) 21.8 22.6 23.0 21.4 0.0 9.8
Wt. Avg Market Cap (in Rs Cr) 59,681 61,594 79,476 9,57,471 71,64,397 27,92,991

*PE PB for Indices are from Bloomberg - * Portfolio & Returns on 31st July, 2024, Past performance may or may not be sustained in future
**Rolling Returns on a monthly basis: 1 Year time period – July 20 – July 24, 3 Year time period – July 18 – July 24
Standard Deviation, 1Yr & 3 Yr rolling returns and ROE are in %. Beta, PE & PB are trailing and in multiples (x)
SEPTEMBER 2024 | ISSUE 141 55
 Alpha Strategist | ‘Goldilocks & Three Bears’

Buoyant Opportunities Strategy

Name of the Fund Buoyant Opportunities AIF Renaissance Opportunities PMS Renaissance India Next PMS Nifty 50 TRI Nifty 500 TRI
PMS
Category Multi Cap Multi Cap Multi cap Multi cap
Jigar Mistry, Viral Berawala, Jigar Mistry, Viral Berawala,
Fund Manager Pankaj Murarka Pankaj Murarka
Sahin Khivasara Sahin Khivasara
Inception Date 01-06-2016 19-11-2022 01-12-2017 19-04-2018
AUM (in Rs cr) as on July 3707 991.59 366 370
2024
Investment Style GARP GARP GARP GARP
Number of Stocks 35 47 26 27 50 500
Returns (%)
1 Month 4.1 2.9 5.7 7.0 3.6 4.0
3 Month 11.2 8.7 14.6 14.7 10.5 12.2
6 Month 18.3 14.8 19.5 21.8 16.4 20.5
1 Year 33.3 24.6 38.0 46.8 27.4 38.7
3 Year 25.5 25.8 31.6 17.7 20.9
5 Year 29.4 23.3 28.0 18.8 22.3
Risk Measures (3Y)
Standard Deviation (%) 15.0 8.0 12.8 5.3 6.8
Beta 2.0 1.6 2.9 0.8 1.0
1 Year Rolling Return (%)
Postive observations 93.9 93.9 85.7 93.9 97.3
Average Return 38.4 27.3 37.8 20.9 14.7
Minimum Return -15.6 -12.4 -30.5 -1.6 -3.1
Maximum Return 120.8 82.7 127.2 72.5 29.0
3 Year Rolling Return (%)
Postive observations 84.1 100.0 100.0 98.6 97.3
Average Return 20.6 20.0 27.8 14.4 14.7
Minimum Return -5.6 3.7 2.1 -0.8 -3.1
Maximum Return 50.3 36.2 51.4 27.8 29.0
Valuations
PE 28.1 27.7 26.6 24.2 22.7 26.1
PB 4.1 3.5 4.6 3.9 3.8 4.1
ROE (%) 14.6 12.7 17.3 16.2 16.6 15.6
Portfolio Composition-
Motilal Oswal Financial
Icici Bank Limited 7.2 Hdfc Bank Ltd 7.1 State Bank Of India 6.8 7.6 HDFC Bank Ltd. 11.9 HDFC Bank Ltd. 6.9
Services Ltd
Hdfc Bank Limited 7.0 Icici Bank Ltd 5.0 Tech Mahindra Ltd 6.2 Tech Mahindra Ltd 6.2 Reliance Industries Ltd. 9.9 ICICI Bank Ltd. 4.6
State Bank Of India
5.3 State Bank Of India 4.5 Bharti Airtel Ltd 6.0 Infosys Ltd 5.8 ICICI Bank Ltd. 7.9 Infosys Ltd. 3.1
Limited
Ramkrishna Forgings Hindustan Petroleum
4.4 Lic Housing Finance Ltd 3.7 Infosys Ltd 5.8 5.1 Infosys Ltd. 5.3 Larsen & Toubro Ltd. 2.3
Limited Corporation Ltd
Max Financial Services Tata Consultancy Services
3.6 Indus Towers Ltd 3.5 Hdfc Bank Ltd 5.4 State Bank Of India 4.7 Larsen & Toubro Ltd. 3.9 2.2
Limited Ltd.
Hdfc Asset Management Hdfc Asset Management Tata Consultancy Services
Top 10 Stocks (%) Vedanta Ltd 3.4 Ramkrishna Forgings Ltd 3.5 4.9 4.4 3.7 ITC Ltd. 2.1
Company Limited Company Limited Ltd.
Icici Prudential Life
Axis Bank Limited 3.2 Axis Bank Ltd 3.0 Icici Bank Ltd 4.9 4.2 ITC Ltd. 3.7 Bharti Airtel Ltd. 2.1
Insurance Company Ltd
Sun Pharmaceutical
Dalmia Bharat Limited 3.1 Ultratech Cement Ltd 3.0 4.7 Cummins India Ltd 4.2 Bharti Airtel Ltd. 3.6 Axis Bank Ltd. 2.0
Industries Ltd
Alembic Pharmaceuticals
Indus Towers Ltd 2.9 India Cements Ltd 2.9 Info Edge (India) Ltd 4.6 4.2 Axis Bank Ltd. 3.4 State Bank Of India 1.8
Ltd
Sun Pharmaceutical Mahindra & Mahindra
Itc Ltd 2.8 Vedanta Ltd 2.7 Cummins India Ltd 4.6 4.0 State Bank Of India 3.1 1.5
Industries Ltd Ltd.
Others 57.2 Others 61.1 Others 46.1 Others 49.6 Others 43.6 Others 71.4
Financial Services 35.6 Financial Services 37.6 Financial Services 22.1 Financial Services 30.9 Financial Services 40.3 Financial Services 24.3
Fast Moving Consumer
Industrials 13.2 Commodities 15.0 Consumer Discretionary 19.9 Consumer Discretionary 17.6 13.6 Consumer Discretionary 16.1
Goods
Top 5 Sectors (%) Commodities 12.6 Industrials 12.6 Information Technology 15.1 Information Technology 15.1 Information Technology 9.9 Industrials 10.5
Healthcare 6.9 Healthcare 10.7 Healthcare 13.3 Industrials 11.1 Consumer Discretionary 9.9 Commodities 9.9
Fast Moving Consumer
Telecommunication 5.4 Consumer Discretionary 8.0 Industrials 12.0 Healthcare 10.4 Commodities 7.9 6.7
Goods
Concentration (%)
Top 5 27.4 23.7 30.2 29.4 39.0 19.0
Top 10 42.8 38.9 53.9 50.4 56.4 28.6
Market Capitalisation
Large Cap (%) 41.2 45.4 61.6 30.9 100.0 71.9
Mid Cap (%) 16.8 18.9 23.9 40.3 0.0 17.6
Small Cap (%) 29.0 32.6 14.4 28.3 0.0 9.8
Wt. Avg Market Cap (in Rs Cr) 28,74,211 27,61,936 37,06,613 19,00,728 71,64,397 27,92,991

*PE PB for Indices are from Bloomberg - * Portfolio & Returns on 31st July, 2024, Past performance may or may not be sustained in future
**Rolling Returns on a monthly basis: 1 Year time period – July 20 – July 24, 3 Year time period – July 18 – July 24
Standard Deviation, 1Yr & 3 Yr rolling returns and ROE are in %. Beta, PE & PB are trailing and in multiples (x)
SEPTEMBER 2024 | ISSUE 141 56
 Alpha Strategist | ‘Goldilocks & Three Bears’

Name of the Fund Motilal Oswal Mid to Mega PMS MO HEMSA Abakkus EOA PMS Abakkus EOF AIF Nifty 50 TRI Nifty 500 TRI

Category Multi cap Multi cap Mid & Small cap Mid & Small cap
Bijon Pani, Pratik Oswal, Sunil Singhania, Aman Sunil Singhania, Aman
Fund Manager Rakesh Tarawey
Devanshu Tayal Chowhan Chowhan
Inception Date 24-12-2019 14-02-2022 26-08-2020 26-08-2020
AUM (in Rs cr) as on July 1678 223 4646.7 3632
2024
Investment Style Growth Growth GARP GARP
Number of Stocks 28 37 30 34 50 500
Returns (%)
1 Month 4.0 6.6 3.5 2.1 3.6 4.0
3 Month 15.8 11.9 12.5 7.4 10.5 12.2
6 Month 22.9 16.3 18.9 13.1 16.4 20.5
1 Year 61.5 76.0 35.7 37.0 27.4 38.7
3 Year 18.1 22.2 22.7 17.7 20.9
5 Year 18.8 22.3
Risk Measures (3Y)
Standard Deviation (%) 5.3 6.8
Beta 0.8 1.0
1 Year Rolling Return (%)
Postive observations 75.0 77.8 80.0 93.9 97.3
Average Return 35.3 37.5 38.6 20.9 14.7
Minimum Return -21.4 -7.6 -7.6 -1.6 -3.1
Maximum Return 101.3 109.9 109.9 72.5 29.0
3 Year Rolling Return (%)
Postive observations 98.6 97.3
Average Return 14.4 14.7
Minimum Return -0.8 -3.1
Maximum Return 27.8 29.0
Valuations
PE 45.8 22.6 23.8 27.5 22.7 26.1
PB 6.2 4.0 3.7 4.0 3.8 4.1
ROE (%) 13.5 17.8 15.4 14.5 16.6 15.6
Portfolio Composition-
Ion Exchange India Technocraft Industries
Trent Ltd. 8.8 Oil India Limited 6.4 5.9 5.6 HDFC Bank Ltd. 11.9 HDFC Bank Ltd. 6.9
Limited India Limited
Kalyan Jewellers India Rural Electrification Ion Exchange India
6.5 5.8 Anup Engineering Limited 5.2 5.5 Reliance Industries Ltd. 9.9 ICICI Bank Ltd. 4.6
Ltd. Corporation Limited Limited
Sarda Energy And
Tvs Motor Company Ltd. 6.1 Nmdc Ltd 4.4 Federal Bank Limited 5.0 5.3 ICICI Bank Ltd. 7.9 Infosys Ltd. 3.1
Minerals Limited
Indian Bank 6.0 Petronet Lng Limited 4.3 Jindal Stainless Limited 4.6 Jindal Stainless Limited 4.9 Infosys Ltd. 5.3 Larsen & Toubro Ltd. 2.3
Sarda Energy And Jubilant Pharmova Tata Consultancy Services
Suzlon Energy Ltd. 5.2 Ajanta Pharma Limited 4.1 4.3 4.1 Larsen & Toubro Ltd. 3.9 2.2
Minerals Limited Limited Ltd.
Titagarh Rail Systems Dynamatic Technologies Tata Consultancy Services
Top 10 Stocks (%) Global Health Ltd. 5.1 Sun Tv Network Ltd. 4.0 4.3 3.9 3.7 ITC Ltd. 2.1
Limited Limited Ltd.
Pnb Housing Finance Hg Infra Engineering
Apar Industries Ltd. 4.1 Bayer Cropscience Ltd 4.0 4.3 3.9 ITC Ltd. 3.7 Bharti Airtel Ltd. 2.1
Limited Limited
Zydus Lifesciences H G Infra Engineering
Kei Industries Ltd. 3.9 3.8 4.2 Canara Bank 3.8 Bharti Airtel Ltd. 3.6 Axis Bank Ltd. 2.0
Limited Limited
Samvardhana Motherson The Anup Engineering
3.8 Mrf Limited 3.8 Granules India Limited 3.9 3.8 Axis Bank Ltd. 3.4 State Bank Of India 1.8
International Ltd. Limited
Oracle Financial Services Max Financial Services Mahindra & Mahindra
Idfc First Bank Ltd. 3.8 3.7 3.7 Mastek Limited 3.4 State Bank Of India 3.1 1.5
Software Limited Limited Ltd.
Others 46.7 Others 55.6 Others 54.7 Others 55.9 Others 43.6 Others 71.4
Consumer Discretionary 29.9 Consumer Discretionary 28.5 Financial Services 29.8 Industrials 27.6 Financial Services 40.3 Financial Services 24.3
Fast Moving Consumer
Industrials 21.9 Healthcare 19.7 Industrials 23.1 Financial Services 20.5 13.6 Consumer Discretionary 16.1
Goods
Top 5 Sectors (%) Financial Services 18.3 Financial Services 14.9 Commodities 10.8 Commodities 13.4 Information Technology 9.9 Industrials 10.5
Information Technology 11.1 Energy 12.0 Consumer Discretionary 9.2 Consumer Discretionary 13.0 Consumer Discretionary 9.9 Commodities 9.9
Fast Moving Consumer Fast Moving Consumer Fast Moving Consumer
Healthcare 5.1 Commodities 9.5 6.0 5.8 Commodities 7.9 6.7
Goods Goods Goods
Concentration (%)
Top 5 32.6 25.0 24.9 25.3 39.0 19.0
Top 10 53.3 44.4 45.3 44.1 56.4 28.6
Market Capitalisation
Large Cap (%) 21.7 29.2 5.6 0.0 100.0 71.9
Mid Cap (%) 46.8 50.1 13.3 12.5 0.0 17.6
Small Cap (%) 25.6 20.6 72.8 72.9 0.0 9.8
Wt. Avg Market Cap (in Rs Cr) 8,90,579 43,489 1,88,522 1,33,377 71,64,397 27,92,991

*PE PB for Indices are from Bloomberg - * Portfolio & Returns on 31st July, 2024, Past performance may or may not be sustained in future
**Rolling Returns on a monthly basis: 1 Year time period – July 20 – July 24, 3 Year time period – July 18 – July 24
Standard Deviation, 1Yr & 3 Yr rolling returns and ROE are in %. Beta, PE & PB are trailing and in multiples (x)
SEPTEMBER 2024 | ISSUE 141 57
 Alpha Strategist | ‘Goldilocks & Three Bears’

Name of the Fund Unifi Blended PMS Unifi BCAD PMS Unifi Blend AIF Renaissance Midcap PMS Nifty Small cap 250 TRI Nifty Mid cap 150 TRI

Category Mid & Small cap Mid & Small cap Mid & Small cap Mid & Small cap
Fund Manager E Prithvi Raj Aejas Lakhani E Prithvi Raj Pankaj Murarka
Inception Date 31-05-2017 30-04-2018 31-05-2021 01-11-2017
AUM (in Rs cr) as on July 16942 3206 2787 177
2024
Investment Style GARP GARP GARP GARP
Number of Stocks 28 28 29 27 250 150
Returns (%)
1 Month 5.4 5.3 3.6 8.4 5.2 4.5
3 Month 10.3 8.8 7.2 14.8 13.9 15.6
6 Month 14.1 11.4 11.0 17.4 22.3 23.9
1 Year 32.1 28.2 27.3 44.4 59.4 54.7
3 Year 17.9 17.8 18.2 28.4 26.4 28.4
5 Year 33.2 26.0 26.2 32.6 31.4
Risk Measures (3Y)
Standard Deviation (%) 9.9 4.2 10.4 15.6 11.1
Beta 1.1 0.9 2.0 2.2 1.6
1 Year Rolling Return (%)
Postive observations 91.5 87.2 91.8 83.7 98.0
Average Return 37.5 27.9 31.6 39.8 34.9
Minimum Return -2.9 -5.9 -12.8 -6.0 -0.4
Maximum Return 126.8 74.9 90.8 127.9 101.6
3 Year Rolling Return (%)
Postive observations 100.0 100.0 97.8 78.1 91.8
Average Return 27.5 23.5 20.9 14.7 17.6
Minimum Return 4.9 11.4 0.0 -16.1 -6.8
Maximum Return 46.4 30.9 38.6 42.2 37.3
Valuations
PE 21.0 23.1 19.5 27.9 - 28.1
PB 3.3 3.8 3.2 4.1 - 3.7
ROE (%) 15.7 16.7 16.5 14.7 - 13.3
Portfolio Composition-
Power Finance Max Healthcare Institute Crompton Greaves
ITC LTD 8.5 ITC LTD 9.2 Itc Ltd 8.5 6.0 2.2 1.5
Corporation Ltd Ltd. Consumer Electricals Ltd.
Aditya Birla Fashion And
STATE BANK OF INDIA 7.2 HCL TECHNOLOGIES LTD 7.3 State Bank Of India 8.2 5.8 Suzlon Energy Ltd. 1.7 Exide Industries Ltd. 1.4
Retail Ltd
Hindustan Petroleum The Indian Hotels Central Depository
BANK OF BARODA 6.5 STATE BANK OF INDIA 7.3 Redington India Ltd 7.1 5.5 1.7 1.2
Corporation Ltd Company Ltd. Services (India) Ltd.
REDINGTON INDIA LTD 6.2 REDINGTON INDIA LTD 6.7 Bank Of Baroda 6.7 Cummins India Ltd 5.4 Cummins India Ltd. 1.7 Blue Star Ltd. 1.2
360 ONE WAM LTD. PREV.
Alembic Pharmaceuticals Tube Investments of Amara Raja Energy &
HCL TECHNOLOGIES LTD 5.3 IIFL WEALTH LTD 5.2 Hcl Technologies Ltd 5.6 4.7 1.4 1.2
Ltd India Ltd. Mobility Ltd.
DEMERGER
NARAYANA HRUDAYALAYA NARAYANA HRUDAYALAYA Nuvama Wealth CG Power and Industrial Multi Commodity
5.3 4.7 Karur Vysya Bank Ltd 5.4 4.6 1.4 1.1
Top 10 Stocks (%) LTD LTD Management Ltd Solutions Ltd. Exchange Of India Ltd.
Narayana Hrudayalaya Dixon Technologies Glenmark
NCC LTD 5.0 BANK OF BARODA 4.7 5.3 Birlasoft Ltd 4.5 1.4 1.0
Ltd (India) Ltd. Pharmaceuticals Ltd.
CROMPTON GREAVES Computer Age
Glenmark Life Sciences Coromandel
4.9 CONSUMER ELECTRICALS 4.5 4.5 Inox Wind Ltd 4.5 Yes Bank Ltd. 1.3 Management Services 1.0
Limited International Ltd
LTD Ltd.
COROMANDEL COROMANDEL Crompton Greaves National Aluminium
4.4 4.4 4.4 Gland Pharma Ltd 4.3 Bharat Forge Ltd. 1.3 1.0
INTERNATIONAL LTD INTERNATIONAL LTD Consumer Electricals Ltd Company Ltd.
CROMPTON GREAVES
CONSUMER ELECTRICALS 4.2 ECLERX SERVICES LTD 3.1 Indian Energy Exchnge Ltd 4.3 Jubilant Foodworks Ltd 4.1 The Federal Bank Ltd. 1.3 Brigade Enterprises Ltd. 1.0
LTD
Others 42.5Others 43.0 Others 40.0 Others 50.5 Others 84.6 Capri Global Capital Ltd. 0.3
Financial Services 27.2Financial Services 22.8 Financial Services 27.9 Financial Services 26.2 Consumer Discretionary 21.2 Financial Services 21.1
Healthcare 12.7Services 14.8 Healthcare 12.0 Consumer Discretionary 22.6 Financial Services 18.2 Consumer Discretionary 19.9
Commodities 10.9Consumer Discretionary 14.3 Consumer Discretionary 10.9 Healthcare 17.2 Industrials 18.1 Industrials 18.9
Top 5 Sectors (%) Fast Moving Consumer
Information Technology 9.1 12.0 Industrials 9.5 Information Technology 10.3 Commodities 11.1 Commodities 10.5
Goods
Fast Moving Consumer
8.5 Healthcare 8.1 Information Technology 9.1 Industrials 9.9 Healthcare 10.1 Healthcare 9.4
Goods
Concentration (%)
Top 5 33.8 35.6 36.1 27.5 8.7 6.5
Top 10 57.5 57.0 60.0 49.5 15.4 11.5
Market Capitalisation
Large Cap (%) 34.4 33.8 40.9 9.4 6.3 0.3
Mid Cap (%) 10.4 7.5 12.9 42.6 85.4 11.7
Small Cap (%) 45.6 50.0 46.4 46.7 8.1 86.2
Wt. Avg Market Cap (in Rs Cr) 1,29,472 1,34,518 19,40,997 4,92,810 39,573 12,430

*PE PB for Indices are from Bloomberg - * Portfolio & Returns on 31st July, 2024, Past performance may or may not be sustained in future
**Rolling Returns on a monthly basis: 1 Year time period – July 20 – July 24, 3 Year time period – July 18 – July 24
Standard Deviation, 1Yr & 3 Yr rolling returns and ROE are in %. Beta, PE & PB are trailing and in multiples (x)
SEPTEMBER 2024 | ISSUE 141 58
 Alpha Strategist | ‘Goldilocks & Three Bears’

Managed Strategies - MF
Aditya Birla SL Frontline HDFC Top 100 Fund Nippon India Large Cap Fund Motilal Oswal Large Cap Fund Nifty 50 TRI Nifty 500 TRI
Name of the Fund Equity Fund
Category Large Cap Large Cap Large Cap Large Cap - -
Fund Manager Mahesh Patil Rahul Baijal Sailesh Raj Bhan,Ashutosh Atul Mehra,Santosh Singh - -
Inception Date 30-08-2002 03-09-1996 08-08-2007 06-02-2024 - -
AUM (in Rs cr) as on 29,104 35,435 29,534 994 - -
July 2024
Investment Style GARP GARP GARP Growth - -
Number of Stocks 80 48 64 38 50 500
Returns (%)
1 Month 1.3 1.4 0.3 2.9 1.4 1.0
3 Month 13.8 11.9 10.9 17.8 12.5 12.9
6 Month 18.9 16.4 17.7 26.1 15.8 18.9
1 Year 37.3 39.7 39.3 - 32.6 41.6
3 Year 16.6 21.1 23.0 - 15.2 18.9
5 Year 20.1 20.5 23.2 - 19.4 22.7
Risk Measures (3Y)
Standard Deviation
6.9 8.6 9.0 - 5.4 6.9
(%)
Beta 1.2 1.5 1.5 - 1.0 1.0
1 Year Rolling
Return (%)
Postive
observations 95.7 95.7 95.7 - 95.7 93.6

Average Return 23.1 26.2 28.0 - 22.5 26.2

Minimum Return -3.3 -12.8 -13.5 - -1.6 -1.2
Maximum Return 70.2 104.3 69.7 - 72.5 77.6
3 Year Rolling
Return (%)
Postive
observations 93.1 90.3 90.3 - 98.6 97.2

Average Return 12.5 13.5 14.5 - 14.5 14.8

Minimum Return -5.1 -11.2 -4.4 - -0.8 -3.1
Maximum Return 27.0 37.9 31.4 - 27.8 29.0
Valuations
PE 27.2 23.1 27.0 29.7 24.2 27.8
PB 4.3 3.9 4.2 4.6 3.8 4.1
ROE (%) 15.7 16.8 15.5 15.5 15.9 14.9
Portfolio
Composition-
HDFC Bank Ltd. 7.5 ICICI Bank Ltd. 9.8 HDFC Bank Ltd. 8.7 HDFC Bank Ltd. 6.5 HDFC Bank Ltd. 11.0 HDFC Bank Ltd. 6.4
ICICI Bank Ltd. HDFC Bank Ltd. Reliance Industries Reliance Industries Reliance Industries Reliance Industries
7.5 8.8 6.3 5.4 9.2 5.3
Ltd. Ltd. Ltd. Ltd.
Infosys Ltd. 6.3 NTPC Ltd. 6.1 ITC Ltd. 5.9 ICICI Bank Ltd. 4.4 ICICI Bank Ltd. 7.7 ICICI Bank Ltd. 4.5
Reliance Larsen & Toubro Ltd. ICICI Bank Ltd. Infosys Ltd. Infosys Ltd. Infosys Ltd.
5.4 5.8 5.3 4.3 6.1 3.5
Industries Ltd.
Larsen & Toubro Reliance Industries Infosys Ltd. Cholamandalam ITC Ltd. ITC Ltd.
Ltd. 4.8 Ltd. 5.6 4.7 Financial Holdings 3.5 4.1 2.4
Ltd.
Top 10 Stocks Bharti Airtel Ltd. 3.3 Infosys Ltd. 5.3 State Bank Of India 4.5 Larsen & Toubro Ltd. 3.3 Larsen & Toubro Ltd. 4.0 Larsen & Toubro Ltd. 2.3
Mahindra & Bharti Airtel Ltd. Axis Bank Ltd. State Bank Of India Tata Consultancy Tata Consultancy
3.1 4.8 3.7 3.3 4.0 2.3
Mahindra Ltd. Services Ltd. Services Ltd.
NTPC Ltd. ITC Ltd. Larsen & Toubro Ltd. Bharat Electronics Ltd. Bharti Airtel Ltd. Bharti Airtel Ltd.
2.9 4.2 3.6 3.2 3.6 2.1

Axis Bank Ltd. Coal India Ltd. Tata Power Company Bajaj Holdings & State Bank Of India State Bank Of India
2.9 3.9 3.1 3.2 3.0 1.8
Ltd. Investment Ltd.
State Bank Of Axis Bank Ltd. Bajaj Finance Ltd. Tech Mahindra Ltd. Axis Bank Ltd. Axis Bank Ltd.
2.8 3.7 2.9 3.2 3.0 1.7
India
Others 53.6 Others 42.0 Others 51.2 Others 59.6 Others 44.1 Others 67.6
Financial Services 30.8 Financial Services 32.4 Financial Services 33.8 Financial Services 29.6 Financial Services 32.7 Financial Services 27.3
Consumer Energy Consumer Information Information Consumer
17.6 10.4 13.1 13.5 13.7 15.4
Discretionary Discretionary Technology Technology Discretionary
Information Consumer Fast Moving Consumer Energy Information
9.5 10.4 9.9 12.9 12.1 9.3
Top 5 Sectors(%) Technology Discretionary Consumer Goods Discretionary Technology
Fast Moving Information Information Industrials Consumer Industrials
7.4 9.3 9.6 6.5 10.8 9.0
Consumer Goods Technology Technology Discretionary
Industrials Fast Moving Consumer Industrials Commodities Fast Moving Consumer Energy
7.0 8.5 9.3 5.6 7.6 8.8
Goods Goods
Concentration (%)
Top 5 31.5 36.1 31.0 24.2 38.2 22.1
Top 10 46.4 58.0 48.8 40.4 55.9 32.4
Market
Capitalisation
Large Cap (%) 84.0 96.4 82.1 79.6 100.0 71.6
Mid Cap (%) 7.4 3.0 10.3 4.2 - 18.0
Small Cap (%) 5.8 - 6.6 11.0 - 9.8
Wt. Avg Market Cap
(in Rs Cr) 54,11,364 64,84,320 57,53,290 48,29,303 74,41,781 46,80,597

* Portfolio as on 31st July, 2024 * Returns on 31st August 2024, Past performance may or may not be sustained in future
**Rolling Returns on a monthly basis: 1 Year time period – August 20 – August 24, 3 Year time period – August 18 – August 24
Standard Deviation, 1Yr & 3 Yr rolling returns and ROE are in %. Beta, PE & PB are in trailing and in multiples (x)
SEPTEMBER 2024 | ISSUE 141 59
 Alpha Strategist | ‘Goldilocks & Three Bears’

Name of the Fund 360 ONE Flexicap Fund Bandhan Sterling Value Fund Franklin India Flexi Cap Fund HDFC Flexi Cap Fund Nifty 50 TRI Nifty 500 TRI

Category Multi Cap Multi Cap Multi Cap Multi Cap - -

Fund Manager Mayur Patel,Rohit Vaidyanathan Daylynn Pinto R. Janakiraman,Rajasa Roshi Jain - -
Inception Date 30-06-2023 07-03-2008 29-09-1994 01-01-1995 - -
AUM (in Rs cr) as on
742 9,757 16,677 59,123 - -
July 2024
Investment Style Growth GARP GARP GARP - -
Number of Stocks 47 68 53 46 50 500
Returns (%)
1 Month 4.0 4.4 4.5 3.3 4.0 4.4
3 Month 17.3 12.1 12.7 12.4 11.1 12.6
6 Month 28.3 19.3 20.6 21.0 15.7 19.5
1 Year 51.7 39.8 43.6 42.2 27.8 39.3
3 Year - 23.9 23.6 27.4 17.9 21.1
5 Year - 27.5 24.2 23.6 18.9 22.3
Risk Measures (3Y)
Standard Deviation
(%) 13.8 9.4 10.4 5.4 6.9
-
Beta - 2.0 1.3 1.4 1.0 1.0
1 Year Rolling
Return (%)
Postive
observations 97.9 97.9 95.7 95.7 93.6
-
Average Return - 37.7 29.8 31.1 22.5 26.2
Minimum Return - -3.5 -3.1 -14.4 -1.6 -1.2
Maximum Return - 118.0 84.9 76.0 72.5 77.6
3 Year Rolling
Return (%)
Postive
observations 84.7 90.3 90.3 98.6 97.2
-
Average Return - 16.2 14.2 15.6 14.5 14.8
Minimum Return - -12.2 -7.2 -5.6 -0.8 -3.1
Maximum Return - 45.0 32.5 34.8 27.8 29.0
Valuations
PE 30.4 25.5 27.0 26.2 24.2 27.8
PB 5.4 3.8 4.2 4.0 3.8 4.1
ROE (%) 17.8 14.8 15.5 15.4 15.9 14.9
Portfolio
Composition-
HDFC Bank Ltd. 6.8 HDFC Bank Ltd. 4.7 ICICI Bank Ltd. 7.6 ICICI Bank Ltd. 9.5 HDFC Bank Ltd. 11.0 HDFC Bank Ltd. 6.4
Tata Motors Ltd. 5.0 Reliance Industries Ltd. 4.1 HDFC Bank Ltd. 6.8 HDFC Bank Ltd. 9.3 Reliance Industries Ltd. 9.2 Reliance Industries Ltd. 5.3
Infosys Ltd. 3.9 Axis Bank Ltd. 4.0 Infosys Ltd. 5.0 Axis Bank Ltd. 8.5 ICICI Bank Ltd. 7.7 ICICI Bank Ltd. 4.5
Indus Towers Ltd. 3.8 ICICI Bank Ltd. 3.6 Bharti Airtel Ltd. 4.8 Cipla Ltd. 4.8 Infosys Ltd. 6.1 Infosys Ltd. 3.5
ICICI Bank Ltd. CG Power and Industrial Larsen & Toubro Ltd. HCL Technologies Ltd. ITC Ltd. ITC Ltd.
3.7 2.5 4.7 4.8 4.1 2.4
Solutions Ltd.
Dixon Technologies Jindal Steel & Power Ltd. Axis Bank Ltd. SBI Life Insurance Larsen & Toubro Ltd. Larsen & Toubro Ltd.
3.2 2.4 3.6 4.6 4.0 2.3
(India) Ltd. Company Ltd.
Top 10 Stocks
Cholamandalam NTPC Ltd. State Bank Of India Kotak Mahindra Bank Tata Consultancy Tata Consultancy
Investment and Finance 3.0 2.2 3.5 Ltd. 4.4 Services Ltd. 4.0 Services Ltd. 2.3
Company Ltd.
Bharti Airtel Ltd. 2.9 ITC Ltd. 2.2 HCL Technologies Ltd. 3.4 Bharti Airtel Ltd. 4.4 Bharti Airtel Ltd. 3.6 Bharti Airtel Ltd. 2.1
NTPC Ltd. 2.8 Hero MotoCorp Ltd. 2.1 Reliance Industries Ltd. 3.1 Infosys Ltd. 3.0 State Bank Of India 3.0 State Bank Of India 1.8
Suven Pharmaceuticals Tata Consultancy NTPC Ltd. State Bank Of India Axis Bank Ltd. Axis Bank Ltd.
2.8 2.1 2.9 2.8 3.0 1.7
Ltd. Services Ltd.
Others 62.0 Others 70.0Others 54.7 Others 43.9 Others 44.1 - -
Consumer Discretionary 22.5 Financial Services 24.5Financial Services 26.5 Financial Services 39.4 Financial Services 32.7 Financial Services 27.3
Financial Services 22.5 Consumer Discretionary 15.8Consumer Discretionary 14.9 Healthcare 13.1 Information Technology 13.7 Consumer Discretionary 15.4
Industrials 14.0 Energy 8.5 Information Technology 10.5 Consumer Discretionary 13.1 Energy 12.1 Information Technology 9.3
Top 5 Sectors(%)
Information Technology 9.5 Industrials 8.3Industrials 9.8 Information Technology 10.5 Consumer Discretionary 10.8 Industrials 9.0
Telecommunication Information Technology Fast Moving Consumer Telecommunication Fast Moving Consumer Energy
7.6 8.2 6.3 4.4 7.6 8.8
Goods Goods
Concentration (%)
Top 5 23.3 18.9 28.9 36.9 38.2 22.1
Top 10 38.0 30.0 45.3 56.1 55.9 32.4
Market
Capitalisation
Large Cap (%) 47.1 61.4 68.3 75.0 100.0 71.6
Mid Cap (%) 25.2 15.7 15.4 3.5 - 18.0
Small Cap (%) 23.3 17.3 10.1 9.2 - 9.8
Wt. Avg Market Cap 27,79,903 36,95,789 44,23,177 40,98,755 74,41,781 46,80,597
(in Rs Cr)
* Portfolio as on 31st July, 2024 * Returns on 31st August 2024, Past performance may or may not be sustained in future
**Rolling Returns on a monthly basis: 1 Year time period – August 20 – August 24, 3 Year time period – August 18 – August 24
Standard Deviation, 1Yr & 3 Yr rolling returns and ROE are in %. Beta, PE & PB are in trailing and in multiples (x)
SEPTEMBER 2024 | ISSUE 141 60
 Alpha Strategist | ‘Goldilocks & Three Bears’

Name of the Fund Mirae Asset Multicap Fund Parag Parikh Flexi Cap Fund HDFC Mid-Cap Opportunities Fund Motilal Oswal Midcap Fund Nifty 50 TRI Nifty Midcap 150 TRI

Category Multi Cap Multi Cap Mid Cap Mid Cap - -

Fund Manager Ankit Jain Rajeev Thakkar,Rukun Chirag Setalvad Niket Shah,Rakesh Shetty - -
Inception Date 21-08-2023 28-05-2013 25-06-2007 24-02-2014 - -
AUM (in Rs cr) as on
3,121 71,700 70,570 12,628 - -
July 2024
Investment Style GARP Value GARP Growth - -
Number of Stocks 79 52 73 20 500 150
Returns (%)
1 Month 4.7 3.6 6.2 5.0 4.4 5.0
3 Month 14.0 10.1 16.6 21.0 12.6 15.9
6 Month 18.1 17.5 23.1 35.4 19.5 22.6
1 Year - 36.8 51.8 69.5 39.3 55.5
3 Year - 19.5 30.5 38.7 21.1 28.7
5 Year - 26.1 30.8 34.3 22.3 31.6
Risk Measures (3Y)
Standard Deviation
6.7 11.9 14.2 6.9 11.2
(%) -
Beta - 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.0 1.0
1 Year Rolling Return
(%)
Postive
observations 89.4 100.0 97.9 93.6 97.9
-
Average Return - 29.1 36.1 37.3 26.2 37.1
Minimum Return - -7.2 1.1 -4.5 -1.2 -0.4
Maximum Return - 80.9 88.1 71.7 77.6 101.6
3 Year Rolling Return
(%)
Postive 100.0 91.7 88.9 97.2 91.7
observations -
Average Return - 18.9 16.6 17.1 14.8 17.8
Minimum Return - 2.4 -7.8 -7.4 -3.1 -6.8
Maximum Return - 33.1 36.9 40.9 29.0 37.3
Valuations
PE 26.7 19.2 25.7 79.4 27.8 38.4
PB 4.1 3.7 3.8 7.2 4.1 4.9
ROE (%) 15.5 19.1 15.0 9.0 14.9 12.8

Portfolio Composition-
HDFC Bank Ltd. HDFC Bank Ltd. The Indian Hotels Polycab India Ltd. HDFC Bank Ltd. Suzlon Energy Ltd.
4.2 8.0 3.8 10.0 6.4 2.2
Company Ltd.
Axis Bank Ltd. Power Grid Corporation Max Financial Services Persistent Systems Ltd. Reliance Industries Ltd. Max Healthcare Institute
3.5 6.9 3.5 9.2 5.3 2.0
Of India Ltd. Ltd. Ltd.
Larsen & Toubro Ltd. Bajaj Holdings & The Federal Bank Ltd. Kalyan Jewellers India ICICI Bank Ltd. The Indian Hotels
2.9 6.5 3.3 7.7 4.5 1.6
Investment Ltd. Ltd. Company Ltd.
Gland Pharma Ltd. ITC Ltd. Apollo Tyres Ltd. JIO Financial Services Infosys Ltd. Cummins India Ltd.
2.3 5.8 3.1 7.6 3.5 1.5
Ltd.
Kotak Mahindra Bank Coal India Ltd. Balkrishna Industries Coforge Ltd. ITC Ltd. Persistent Systems Ltd.
2.1 5.7 3.0 6.5 2.4 1.5
Ltd. Ltd.
Top 10 Stocks Reliance Industries Ltd. Maruti Suzuki India Ltd. Indian Bank Tube Investments of Larsen & Toubro Ltd. Yes Bank Ltd.
2.0 5.3 2.8 6.2 2.3 1.4
India Ltd.
Tata Motors Ltd. ICICI Bank Ltd. Ipca Laboratories Ltd. Balkrishna Industries Tata Consultancy The Federal Bank Ltd.
2.0 5.1 2.8 5.2 2.3 1.4
Ltd. Services Ltd.
Bharti Airtel Ltd. HCL Technologies Ltd. Max Healthcare Institute Dixon Technologies Bharti Airtel Ltd. CG Power and Industrial
1.9 4.0 2.8 4.2 2.1 1.4
Ltd. (India) Ltd. Solutions Ltd.
Whirlpool Of India Ltd. Axis Bank Ltd. Tata Communications Zomato Ltd. State Bank Of India Lupin Ltd.
1.9 3.6 2.7 4.0 1.8 1.4
Ltd.
Indian Bank Kotak Mahindra Bank Hindustan Petroleum KPIT Technologies Ltd. Axis Bank Ltd. Dixon Technologies
1.9 2.5 2.6 3.8 1.7 1.3
Ltd. Corporation Ltd. (India) Ltd.
Others 75.2 Others 46.6 Others 69.5 Others 44.8 Others 67.6 Others 85.7
Financial Services 25.3 Financial Services 33.2 Financial Services 23.6 Consumer Discretionary 33.4 Financial Services 27.3 Consumer Discretionary 20.5
Consumer Discretionary 18.0 Consumer Discretionary 7.1 Consumer Discretionary 19.2 Industrials 13.3 Consumer Discretionary 15.4 Financial Services 18.0
Top 5 Sectors(%) Healthcare 10.1 Utilities 6.9 Healthcare 12.6 Information Technology 10.6 Information Technology 9.3 Industrials 18.0
Information Technology 8.7 Energy 6.8 Industrials 11.7 Financial Services 7.6 Industrials 9.0 Commodities 11.0
Industrials 8.1 Information Technology 6.2 Commodities 7.8 Healthcare 4.9 Energy 8.8 Healthcare 10.5
Concentration (%)
Top 5 15.1 32.9 16.7 31.9 22.1 7.4
Top 10 24.8 53.4 30.5 55.2 32.4 14.3

Market Capitalisation
Large Cap (%) 41.3 59.3 7.6 11.6 100.0 6.3
Mid Cap (%) 26.0 7.3 65.6 70.2 18.0 85.4
Small Cap (%) 31.8 5.1 18.9 1.5 9.8 8.1
Wt. Avg Market Cap
27,38,398 31,49,787 5,24,181 6,73,613 46,80,597 6,47,870
(in Rs Cr)

* Portfolio as on 31st July, 2024 * Returns on 31st August 2024, Past performance may or may not be sustained in future
**Rolling Returns on a monthly basis: 1 Year time period – August 20 – August 24, 3 Year time period – August 18 – August 24
Standard Deviation, 1Yr & 3 Yr rolling returns and ROE are in %. Beta, PE & PB are in trailing and in multiples (x)
SEPTEMBER 2024 | ISSUE 141 61
 Alpha Strategist | ‘Goldilocks & Three Bears’

Name of the Fund Helios Flexi Cap Fund ICICI Pru India Opp Fund Kotak Equity Opp Fund Motilal Oswal Large & Midcap Fund Nifty 50 TRI Nifty 500 TRI

Category Multi Cap Multi Cap Multi Cap Multi Cap - -

Fund Manager Alok Bahl,Pratik Singh Sankaran Naren,Roshan Chutkey Harsha Upadhyaya Ajay Khandelwal,Niket Shah - -

Inception Date 21-02-2000 15-01-2019 09-09-2004 17-10-2019 - -

AUM (in Rs cr) as on
4,576 21,037 24,055 4,943 - -
July 2024
Investment Style Growth GARP GARP Growth - -
Number of Stocks 47 59 67 28 50 500
Returns (%)
1 Month 3.0 5.8 3.3 3.6 4.0 4.4
3 Month 9.6 12.7 13.1 14.1 11.1 12.6
6 Month 21.2 21.2 26.3 25.9 15.7 19.5
1 Year - 43.4 43.7 54.3 27.8 39.3
3 Year - 31.6 23.3 28.1 17.9 21.1
5 Year - 27.9 24.6 - 18.9 22.3
Risk Measures (3Y)
Standard Deviation
- 7.6 7.2 4.8 5.4 6.9
(%)
Beta - 1.6 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.0
1 Year Rolling Return
(%)
Postive
- 95.7 100.0 85.1 95.7 93.6
observations
Average Return - 36.3 26.8 30.7 22.5 26.2
Minimum Return - -11.9 0.1 -15.2 -1.6 -1.2
Maximum Return - 95.6 71.4 71.9 72.5 77.6
3 Year Rolling Return
(%)
Postive
- 100.0 97.2 100.0 98.6 97.2
observations
Average Return - 28.9 15.4 25.0 14.5 14.8
Minimum Return - 16.5 -2.2 14.7 -0.8 -3.1
Maximum Return - 42.6 28.7 32.6 27.8 29.0
Valuations
PE 30.6 27.4 26.4 62.5 24.2 27.8
PB 4.6 3.8 4.1 7.4 3.8 4.1
ROE (%) 15.0 14.0 15.4 11.8 15.9 14.9

Portfolio Composition-

HDFC Bank Ltd. 8.8 HDFC Bank Ltd. 9.1 HDFC Bank Ltd. 5.2 Zomato Ltd. 7.1 HDFC Bank Ltd. 11.0 HDFC Bank Ltd. 6.4
ICICI Bank Ltd. Sun Pharmaceutical State Bank Of India Trent Ltd. Reliance Industries Ltd. Reliance Industries Ltd.
7.4 5.9 3.8 6.6 9.2 5.3
Industries Ltd.
State Bank Of India ICICI Bank Ltd. Bharat Electronics Ltd. Kalyan Jewellers India ICICI Bank Ltd. ICICI Bank Ltd.
4.7 5.6 3.5 6.5 7.7 4.5
Ltd.
Zomato Ltd. Kotak Mahindra Bank ICICI Bank Ltd. Prestige Estates Projects Infosys Ltd. Infosys Ltd.
4.3 3.0 3.1 5.6 6.1 3.5
Ltd. Ltd.
Tata Consultancy Infosys Ltd. Zomato Ltd. Suzlon Energy Ltd. ITC Ltd. ITC Ltd.
3.6 2.8 3.1 5.3 4.1 2.4
Services Ltd.
Adani Ports and Special Alkem Laboratories Ltd. Bharat Forge Ltd. Inox Wind Ltd. Larsen & Toubro Ltd. Larsen & Toubro Ltd.
Top 10 Stocks 3.3 2.5 3.0 4.1 4.0 2.3
Economic Zone Ltd.
Axis Bank Ltd. ITC Ltd. Axis Bank Ltd. Bharat Electronics Ltd. Tata Consultancy Tata Consultancy
3.2 2.4 2.9 4.0 4.0 2.3
Services Ltd. Services Ltd.
Varun Beverages Ltd. ICICI Lombard General Reliance Industries Ltd. CG Power and Industrial Bharti Airtel Ltd. Bharti Airtel Ltd.
3.0 Insurance Company Ltd. 2.3 2.9 Solutions Ltd. 3.9 3.6 2.1

NTPC Ltd. 2.9 IndusInd Bank Ltd. 2.3 Larsen & Toubro Ltd. 2.8 Bharti Airtel Ltd. 3.6 State Bank Of India 3.0 State Bank Of India 1.8
Bharti Airtel Ltd. Maruti Suzuki India Ltd. Linde India Ltd. Hindustan Aeronautics Axis Bank Ltd. Axis Bank Ltd.
2.8 2.3 2.7 3.6 3.0 1.7
Ltd.
Others 56.1 Others 61.8 Others 67.1 Others 49.9 Others 44.1 - -
Financial Services 36.6 Financial Services 34.0 Industrials 19.7 Consumer Discretionary 33.3 Financial Services 32.7 Financial Services 27.3
Consumer Discretionary 10.9 Healthcare 13.9 Financial Services 19.5 Industrials 29.2 Information Technology 13.7 Consumer Discretionary 15.4
Information Technology 7.7 Consumer Discretionary 10.7 Consumer Discretionary 16.8 Financial Services 17.8 Energy 12.1 Information Technology 9.3
Top 5 Sectors(%)
Healthcare 7.6 Commodities 5.5 Commodities 13.8 Healthcare 4.8 Consumer Discretionary 10.8 Industrials 9.0
Industrials Fast Moving Consumer Energy Telecommunication Fast Moving Consumer Energy
6.9 4.5 11.2 3.6 7.6 8.8
Goods Goods
Concentration (%)
Top 5 28.7 26.4 18.7 31.1 38.2 22.1
Top 10 43.9 38.2 32.9 50.1 55.9 32.4
Market Capitalisation

Large Cap (%) 60.4 55.0 54.4 35.4 100.0 71.6

Mid Cap (%) 13.5 18.8 38.2 43.7 - 18.0
Small Cap (%) 19.8 9.7 5.8 18.6 - 9.8
Wt. Avg Market Cap
(in Rs Cr) 43,20,648 34,28,565 33,75,903 13,91,064 74,41,781 46,80,597

* Portfolio as on 31st July, 2024 * Returns on 31st August 2024, Past performance may or may not be sustained in future
**Rolling Returns on a monthly basis: 1 Year time period – August 20 – August 24, 3 Year time period – August 18 – August 24
Standard Deviation, 1Yr & 3 Yr rolling returns and ROE are in %. Beta, PE & PB are in trailing and in multiples (x)
SEPTEMBER 2024 | ISSUE 141 62
 Alpha Strategist | ‘Goldilocks & Three Bears’

Name of the Fund Bandhan Small Cap Fund HDFC Small Cap Fund HSBC Small Cap Fund Invesco India Smallcap Fund Nifty Midcap 150 TRI Nifty Small Cap 250 TRI

Category Small Cap Small Cap Small Cap Small Cap - -

Venugopal Manghat,Cheenu
Fund Manager Manish Gunwani,Kirthi Jain Chirag Setalvad Taher Badshah,Aditya Khemani - -
Gupta
Inception Date 25-02-2020 03-04-2008 12-05-2014 30-10-2018 - -
AUM (in Rs cr) as on 7,534 31,523 16,983 4,581 - -
July 2024
Investment Style GARP GARP GARP GARP - -
Number of Stocks 148 82 96 75 150 250
Returns (%)
1 Month 7.9 5.2 3.0 4.1 5.0 5.0
3 Month 17.8 10.6 15.2 15.8 15.9 13.6
6 Month 25.2 14.2 20.5 22.5 22.6 19.5
1 Year 72.9 38.5 51.0 53.8 55.5 59.1
3 Year 26.3 25.5 29.6 29.1 28.7 26.3
5 Year - 29.6 32.2 33.3 31.6 32.6
Risk Measures (3Y)
Standard Deviation
2.5 13.9 15.5 4.8 11.2 15.8
(%)
Beta 0.4 0.8 1.0 0.7 1.0 1.0
1 Year Rolling
Return (%)
Postive
79.1 95.7 97.9 93.6 97.9 85.1
observations
Average Return 42.0 41.2 42.7 38.0 37.1 42.5
Minimum Return -6.6 -4.6 -4.6 -7.6 -0.4 -6.0
Maximum Return 107.4 117.5 112.7 90.2 101.6 127.9
3 Year Rolling
Return (%)
Postive
100.0 87.5 84.7 100.0 91.7 77.8
observations
Average Return 30.5 18.5 18.8 29.3 17.8 15.0
Minimum Return 26.3 -8.2 -10.8 20.1 -6.8 -16.1
Maximum Return 34.5 47.1 46.3 38.5 37.3 42.2
Valuations
PE 24.6 25.8 36.7 40.6 38.4 31.8
PB 3.5 3.6 5.5 7.1 4.9 4.0
ROE (%) 14.4 13.8 14.9 17.6 12.8 12.7
Portfolio
Composition-
Cholamandalam Firstsource Solutions Ltd. Apar Industries Ltd. Century Textiles & Suzlon Energy Ltd. Crompton Greaves
Financial Holdings Ltd. 2.6 5.0 3.5 Industries Ltd. 3.3 2.2 Consumer Electricals Ltd. 1.6

PCBL Ltd. Bank Of Baroda Techno Electric & 360 One Wam Ltd. Max Healthcare Institute Exide Industries Ltd.
2.5 3.3 Engineering Company 2.6 3.1 Ltd. 2.0 1.3
Ltd.
Indus Towers Ltd. Sonata Software Ltd. NCC Ltd. Jyoti CNC Automation Ltd. The Indian Hotels Blue Star Ltd.
2.3 3.1 2.4 2.8 1.6 1.2
Company Ltd.
LT Foods Ltd. eClerx Services Ltd. KPIT Technologies Ltd. Kalyan Jewellers India Cummins India Ltd. Central Depository
2.0 2.6 2.4 2.5 1.5 1.2
Ltd. Services (India) Ltd.
REC Ltd. The Great Eastern Sonata Software Ltd. Bharat Dynamics Ltd. Persistent Systems Ltd. Glenmark
1.9 Shipping Company Ltd. 2.4 2.4 2.2 1.5 Pharmaceuticals Ltd. 1.2
Top 10 Stocks
Apar Industries Ltd. Aster DM Healthcare Ltd. Brigade Enterprises Ltd. Global Health Ltd. Yes Bank Ltd. Multi Commodity
1.8 2.3 2.3 2.1 1.4 1.2
Exchange Of India Ltd.
The Karnataka Bank Ltd. Power Mech Projects Ltd. Century Textiles & KPIT Technologies Ltd. The Federal Bank Ltd. Computer Age
1.8 2.2 Industries Ltd. 2.2 2.0 1.4 Management Services 1.2
Ltd.
TVS Holdings Ltd. Eris Lifesciences Ltd. KEI Industries Ltd. Central Depository CG Power and Industrial Amara Raja Energy &
1.8 2.1 2.1 1.9 1.4 1.1
Services (India) Ltd. Solutions Ltd. Mobility Ltd.
Arvind Ltd. 1.7 - - Trent Ltd. 2.0 Karur Vysya Bank Ltd. 1.9 Lupin Ltd. 1.4 - -
Shaily Engineering PNC Infratech Ltd. EIH Ltd. Multi Commodity Dixon Technologies Karur Vysya Bank Ltd.
Plastics Ltd. 1.7 2.0 1.8 Exchange Of India Ltd. 1.9 (India) Ltd. 1.3 1.0

Others 79.9 Others 75.0 Others 76.4 Others 81.3 Others 85.7 - -
Financial Services Consumer Discretionary Industrials Financial Services Consumer Discretionary Financial Services
20.7 20.3 32.2 22.6 20.5 20.4

Consumer Discretionary Industrials Consumer Discretionary Consumer Discretionary Financial Services Consumer Discretionary
18.2 18.7 27.7 19.3 18.0 19.4
Top 5 Sectors(%)
Industrials 9.9 Services 16.7 Financial Services 11.2 Industrials 14.8 Industrials 18.0 Industrials 18.5
Healthcare 9.4 Financial Services 10.2 Commodities 8.5 Healthcare 10.6 Commodities 11.0 Commodities 10.6
Commodities 7.1 Healthcare 9.6 Information Technology 5.7 Commodities 6.3 Healthcare 10.5 Healthcare 9.8
Concentration (%)
Top 5 11.3 16.3 13.2 8.9 7.4 6.4
Top 10 20.1 25.0 23.6 18.7 14.3 10.8
Market
Capitalisation
Large Cap (%) 7.0 4.0 2.0 5.0 6.3 0.3
Mid Cap (%) 15.5 8.6 21.6 27.2 85.4 11.7
Small Cap (%) 66.5 78.6 73.3 64.3 8.1 86.2
Wt. Avg Market Cap
4,17,076 2,05,859 2,87,960 2,90,722 6,47,870 2,07,314
(in Rs Cr)
st st
* Portfolio as on 31 July, 2024 * Returns on 31 August 2024, Past performance may or may not be sustained in future
**Rolling Returns on a monthly basis: 1 Year time period – August 20 – August 24, 3 Year time period – August 18 – August 24
Standard Deviation, 1Yr & 3 Yr rolling returns and ROE are in %. Beta, PE & PB are in trailing and in multiples (x)
SEPTEMBER 2024 | ISSUE 141 63
 Alpha Strategist | ‘Goldilocks & Three Bears’

Aditya Birla SL Balanced Advantage CRISIL Hybrid 35+65 - Aggressive

Name of the Fund ICICI Pru Balanced Advantage Fund HDFC Balanced Advantage Fund Kotak Balanced Advantage Fund
Fund Index
Category Balanced Advantage Balanced Advantage Balanced Advantage Balanced Advantage -
Gopal Agrawal,Srinivasan
Fund Manager Mohit Sharma,Vishal Gajwani Manish Banthia,Sankaran Naren Rohit Tandon,Hiten Shah -
Ramamurthy
Inception Date 25-04-2000 30-12-2006 11-09-2000 03-08-2018 -
AUM (in Rs cr) as on
7,266 58,562 89,903 16,345 -
July 2024
Investment Style Growth GARP GARP GARP -
Number of Stocks 109 90 149 88 -
Returns (%)
1 Month 3.1 3.2 3.6 3.1 3.2
3 Month 8.6 6.8 9.3 8.8 8.9
6 Month 13.4 11.5 15.2 13.2 14.1
1 Year 22.6 22.6 38.9 22.0 26.3
3 Year 13.2 14.2 24.9 12.9 15.4
5 Year 14.1 14.5 21.3 13.5 16.8
Risk Measures (3Y)
Standard Deviation
3.7 3.5 8.4 1.7 3.8
(%)
Beta 1.0 0.9 1.9 0.7 1.0
1 Year Rolling
Return (%)
Postive
93.6 100.0 95.7 97.9 100.0
observations
Average Return 15.1 15.9 27.2 13.8 18.2
Minimum Return -4.1 2.5 -11.0 -2.9 0.7
Maximum Return 43.5 44.7 60.1 42.3 49.8
3 Year Rolling
Return (%)
Postive
98.6 100.0 95.8 100.0 100.0
observations
Average Return 10.1 10.9 14.7 11.8 12.8
Minimum Return -1.4 0.4 -1.9 9.1 1.9
Maximum Return 17.9 19.8 30.2 17.4 20.4
Valuations
PE 27.2 29.2 19.0 26.5 -
PB 4.2 4.7 3.4 4.3 -
ROE (%) 15.3 16.1 17.7 16.2 -
Portfolio
Composition-
HDFC Bank Ltd. 5.4 TVS Motor Company Ltd. 5.0 HDFC Bank Ltd. 5.8 HDFC Bank Ltd. 6.6 - -
Reliance Industries Ltd. 4.8 ICICI Bank Ltd. 4.6 State Bank Of India 3.6 ICICI Bank Ltd. 3.7 - -
ICICI Bank Ltd. 4.3 Maruti Suzuki India Ltd. 4.0 ICICI Bank Ltd. 3.6 Infosys Ltd. 3.4 - -
Infosys Ltd. 3.8 Infosys Ltd. 3.5 Coal India Ltd. 3.4 Reliance Industries Ltd. 2.9 - -
Larsen & Toubro Ltd. HDFC Bank Ltd. NTPC Ltd. Adani Ports and Special -
2.4 3.1 3.2 2.3 -
Economic Zone Ltd.
ITC Ltd. 2.2 Larsen & Toubro Ltd. 2.9 Infosys Ltd. 2.6 Larsen & Toubro Ltd. 1.9 - -
Top 10 Stocks NTPC Ltd. 2.0 ITC Ltd. 2.7 Larsen & Toubro Ltd. 2.6 Axis Bank Ltd. 1.9 - -
Adani Ports and Special Reliance Industries Ltd. Reliance Industries Ltd. Tata Consultancy -
1.9 2.2 2.3 1.8 -
Economic Zone Ltd. Services Ltd.
State Bank Of India NTPC Ltd. ITC Ltd. Mahindra & Mahindra -
1.6 2.1 2.3 1.8 -
Ltd.
Sun Pharmaceutical State Bank Of India Axis Bank Ltd. Maruti Suzuki India Ltd. -
1.5 2.0 1.8 1.7 -
Industries Ltd.
Others 70.1 Others 67.9 Others 68.9 Others 71.9 - -
Financial Services 19.0 Financial Services 17.6 Financial Services 21.7 Financial Services 19.3 - -
Consumer Discretionary 11.81 Consumer Discretionary 17.6 Industrials 9.6 Consumer Discretionary 10.2 - -
Information Technology 7.10 Information Technology 7.3 Energy 9.4 Information Technology 7.7 - -
Top 5 Sectors(%) Energy 6.57 Fast Moving Consumer Information Technology Commodities -
5.3 4.7 6.4 -
Goods
Fast Moving Consumer 5.63 Commodities Utilities Fast Moving Consumer -
5.2 4.2 5.5 -
Goods Goods

Concentration (%)

Top 5 20.7 20.2 19.5 18.9 -

Top 10 29.9 32.1 31.1 28.1 -
Market
Capitalisation
Large Cap (%) 56.8 62.3 51.8 54.0 -
Mid Cap (%) 11.4 6.3 6.2 10.0 -
Small Cap (%) 4.1 1.8 7.2 5.1 -
Wt. Avg Market Cap
2,90,872 34,53,706 34,19,379 35,08,444 -
(in Rs Cr)

* Portfolio as on 31st July, 2024 * Returns on 31st August 2024, Past performance may or may not be sustained in future
**Rolling Returns on a monthly basis: 1 Year time period – August 20 – August 24, 3 Year time period – August 18 – August 24
Standard Deviation, 1Yr & 3 Yr rolling returns and ROE are in %. Beta, PE & PB are in trailing and in multiples (x)
SEPTEMBER 2024 | ISSUE 141 64
 Alpha Strategist | ‘Goldilocks & Three Bears’

Client Onboarding Checklist

Client Name:

General Infomation
Do you have a single window view to all of your assets, liabilities, investments?

Is the family aware of your investments?

Do you have any family in foreign locations?
Is there any transfer to India or from India to family member abroad?
Do you hold any foreign assets or investments?
Do you have any family member with special requirement? Have you planned for them?

Type of Investments:

Physical Shares:

PPF & EPF:

Life Insurance:

Will:

Family situation:

Other Questions:

SEPTEMBER 2024 | ISSUE 141 65

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 Alpha Strategist | ‘Goldilocks & Three Bears’

Notes

SEPTEMBER 2024 | ISSUE 141 66

 Alpha Strategist | ‘Goldilocks & Three Bears’

Notes

SEPTEMBER 2024 | ISSUE 141 67

 Alpha Strategist | ‘Goldilocks & Three Bears’

Investment Charter Template

General Information & Client Profile
Particulars Details
Portfolio Characteristics
Investment Horizon
Liquidity Requirements
Cash Flow Requirements

Restricted Investments
Performance Benchmarking
Portfolio Review

Review of Guidelines

Investment Charter – Asset Allocation Guidelines

Mandate Criteria Portfolio Compliance
Equity (Mutual Funds, Direct Equity, AIFs) –
Fixed Income (Mutual Funds, Structures, AIFs, Direct Debt) –
Alternatives (Real Estate, Private Equity, Long Short Funds) –
Asset Allocation Liquid Assets (Liquid, Ultra Short-Term, and Arbitrage Funds)
–

Return
Expectations1
Investment Time
Horizon2
1
Return expectations for portfolio since inception for active and closed holdings. There is no guarantee that the performance will be achieved.
2
Average age of portfolio holding – Including Closed Holdings
Investment Charter – Exposure Guidelines
Mandate Criteria Portfolio Compliance
Large Cap (Top 100 Companies) –
Market Cap Limits Mid Cap (101 to 250th Company) –
Small Cap (251st Company Onwards) –
Interest Rate Risk Modified Duration –
AAA and Above –
Credit Quality AA & Above –
A & Below –
Closed Ended
Maximum allocation to closed ended investments –
Investments
Single AMC –
Mutual Funds &
Single Scheme –
Managed Accounts

Single Issuer -
Other Instruments
Single Instrument-
Own AMC/ Self-Managed Funds/ Structures/ Debt -
Proprietary Products

SEPTEMBER 2024 | ISSUE 141 68

 Alpha Strategist | ‘Goldilocks & Three Bears’

Readers Speak

SEPTEMBER 2024 | ISSUE 141 69

 Alpha Strategist | ‘Goldilocks & Three Bears’

Motilal Oswal Wealth Limited

CIN: U67110MH2002PLC135075
Registered Office Address: Motilal Oswal Tower, Rahimtullah Sayani Road,
Opposite Parel ST Depot, Prabhadevi, Mumbai 400 025
Tel No.: 022 7193 4200/63; Website: www.motilaloswalpwm.com
Registration details: SEBI PMS Regn No: INP000004409; AMFI Regn No: ARN87554
Please read disclosure document as issued by company from time to time.

Ashish Shanker Nitin Shanbhag

MD & CEO Head - Investment Products
[email protected] [email protected]

Safe Harbor
Motilal Oswal Wealth Limited, a company incorporated under the Companies act 1956, is registered with SEBI as Portfolio Manager. Motilal Oswal Wealth Limited is also registered as a
distributor of mutual funds. Registration details: SEBI PMS Regn No: INP000004409; AMFI Regn No: ARN87554
The information, data, or analysis does not constitute investment advice or as an offer or solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe for any investment or a recommendation and is meant
for your personal information only and suggests a proposition which does not guarantee any returns. Motilal Oswal Wealth Ltd (hereinafter referred as MOWL) or any of its affiliates is not
soliciting any action based upon it. This information, including the data or analysis provided herein is neither intended to aid in decision making for legal, financial, or other consulting
questions nor should it be the basis of any investment or other decisions. The historical performance presented in this document is not indicative of and should not be construed as being
indicative of or otherwise used as a proxy for future or specific investments. The relevant product offering documents should be read for further details.MOWL does not take responsibility for
authentication of any data or information which has been furnished by you,the entity offering the product, or any other third party which furnishes the data or information. The above
mentioned assets are not necessarily maintained or kept in custody of MOWL.
The information contained in this statement are updated as and when received as a result of which there may be differences between the details contained herein and those reflected in the
records of the respective entities or that of yours. In the event where information sent through any electronic Media (including but not limited to Net Banking or email) or print do not tally, for
whatever reason, with the records available with the entity offering the product or the third party maintaining such information in each of the foregoing cases, the information with the entity
offering the product or third party maintaining such information shall be considered as final. The benchmarking shown in the document above is a result of the choice of benchmark MOWL
uses for the various products. It is possible that some investments offered by the third parties have other benchmarks and their actual relative under- or out-performance is different from that
provided in the statement. The recipient should seek appropriate professional advice, including tax advice, before dealing with any realized or unrealized gain/loss reflecting in this statement.
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In no event will MOWL and their officers, directors, personnel, employees, or its affiliates and group company be liable for any damages, losses, or liabilities including without limitation, direct
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For any queries and grievances, please write to [email protected]

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CRISIL especially states that it has no financial liability whatsoever to the Licensee / users of CRISIL Indices.”

SEPTEMBER 2024 | ISSUE 141 70