Intermediate Thinking Skills

Term 2 Week 1

Name: _______________________

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Flaws in Reasoning

Know Where to look for the Flaw

Imagine you saw the following argument:

"Ghosts can only be seen by those with kind hearts. Mother Teresa is revered as a person of great
kindness. However, she never saw a ghost in her entire life. Therefore, she does not have a kind
heart."

It's a terrible argument. But why, exactly? If you heard it in real life, you could come up with a lot of
reasons why it is flawed. Perhaps you disagree with the idea that Mother Teresa has no kindness, and
perhaps you know of other examples from her life that justify a different conclusion. However, the
flaw that you see in the conclusion has nothing to do with reasoning. It's simply an opinion that you
happen to disagree with.

Perhaps you disagree with the idea that ghosts can only be seen by those who have kind hearts .
Maybe you don't believe that ghosts are real. But there is no reasoning in this statement. The flaw you
see is again simply based on your opinion of the premise. Your job here is not to evaluate the truth of
the conclusion, nor is it to evaluate the truth of the support. Your job is to focus in on one specific area
- the use of that support to justify that conclusion. If we take the support to be true, is it enough , by
itself, to absolutely prove the main point?

If we take it to be true that ghosts can only be seen by those with kind hearts, does this absolutely
prove that Mother Teresa did not have kindness? No, it doesn't. Why not? Because we only know that
ghosts can only be seen by those with kindness - this does not tell us that everyone with kindness
must have seen at least one ghost. Maybe Mother Teresa does have a kind heart, but she simply never
had an opportunity to see a ghost. This is what is wrong with the reasoning of the argument.

Example Flaw in Reasoning Question

JK: "Harry Potter is the most popular book series of our time. Therefore, it's the one book series from
our era that will most likely be read by future generations."

The reasoning in the argument above is flawed because

A. it takes for granted that what is popular now will still be popular in the future.
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B. it ignores the fact that Percy Jackson is nearly as popular as Harry Potter.
C. it fails to provide information on how many Harry Potter books have been sold.
D. it ignores the popularity of the Harry Potter films.
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Solution: You may disagree with the idea that Harry Potter is the most popular series of our time. You
may disagree with the idea that it will be the series most likely read by future generations. But the
reasoning flaw has to do with the use of that support to justify the conclusion: Just because it's
popular now doesn't mean that future generations will read it. And therefore A is the correct answer.

Two Mottos for Finding Flaws in Reasoning

"The argument fails to consider that..."

"The argument takes for granted that..."

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You want to get into the habit of having these two phrases run through your head as you read and
think about arguments, for they can help you pay attention to exactly what the problem is with the
way that an argument is presented and justified.

Flaws in Reasoning - Questions

1. Five year old child: "Since Billie got a cookie, I should get a cookie."

The reasoning in the argument above is flawed because

A. it fails to consider that Billie might not like cookies.

B. it fails to provide information on what type of cookie Billie got.
C. it takes for granted that the five year old child should get everything Billie gets.
D. it ignores the possibility of the five year old child being deserving of more than just one cookie.

2. Roger: "Of course Tangled is the best movie ever. All of my friends agree."

The reasoning in the argument above is flawed because

A. it takes for granted that these friends' tastes present an accurate representation of the quality of
movies.
B. it fails to provide information on what makes Tangled such a good movie.
C. it takes for granted that movies are better than books.
D. it ignores the possibility that better movies than Tangled will be made in the future.

3. Cindy: "Candy is healthy because it contains vitamin C, which is good for us."

Cindy's reasoning is flawed because

A. she ignores the qualities of vitamins other than vitamin C.

B. she fails to consider that the other components of candy may make it so that candy is, overall, not
good for us.
C. she takes for granted that candy is healthier than fruits and vegetables.
D. she ignores the possibility that other food sources may contain even more vitamin C than candy.

4. Nadia: "Last night, I saw a TV show about a Siamese cat that was taught to jump off a diving board.
Since our cat Millie is a Siamese cat, I bet we can train her to jump off a diving board."
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Nadia's reasoning is flawed because

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A. she ignores the qualities of cat breeds other than Siamese.
B. she fails to consider that dogs may also be taught to jump off a diving board.
C. she takes for granted that Siamese cats are the smartest cats of all.
D. she fails to consider that other characteristics could differentiate Millie from the cat on the TV.

5. Angus: "There is no evidence that the Loch Ness monster is not real. So it probably exists."

Angus' reasoning is flawed because

A. he ignores the possibility that the Loch Ness monster destroyed the evidence that it is not real.
B. he fails to consider that the Abominable Snowman may also be real.
C. he takes for granted that since something has not been disproven, it must be real.
D. he assumes that people are still looking for evidence of the existence of the Loch Ness monster.

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6. Theme park executive: "While normally our park closes at 9:00 pm, we recently experimented by
leaving it open until midnight for a period of one week. We did not expect a significant increase in
traffic during nighttime hours. To our surprise, on each day during that week the park was more
crowded between 9:00 pm and midnight than it was during any other three-hour period. Therefore,
to maximise our attendance, we should leave the park open until midnight all year long."

The reasoning in the theme park executive's argument is flawed on the grounds that it

A. overlooks the possibility that the experiment's novelty, rather than the operating hours themselves,
was responsible for the observed attendance.
B. draws a conclusion regarding theme park attendance that merely restates one of the argument's
premises.
C. assumes that those who remained in the park during the later hours would not have left had the
park closed earlier.
D. takes for granted that late-night attendance will remain constant during all seasons of the year.

7. Students that drink green tea while studying have higher test scores than those that drink soda
while studying. Tea manufacturers emphasise that students who reported drinking green tea while
preparing for a test achieved consistently higher test scores than those students who reported
drinking soda while preparing for the same test. If this claim is true, then if the students who drink
soda switched to drinking green tea, their test scores will rise.

The reasoning in this argument is flawed because the argument

A. fails to consider the cost difference between a cup of green tea and a can of soda.
B. ignores the possibility that students who drink green tea may have other characteristics besides
their drink preference that yield to higher test scores than those students who prefer to drink soda.
C. accepts without challenge that green tea is healthier for students than soda.
D. does not provide the precise percentage difference in the test scores between those drinking green
tea and those drinking soda.

8. Everyone who achieves success must struggle first. Seth has achieved success. Therefore, Seth must
have struggled first.

If the author's premise is to be taken as true, what is the flaw in the author's argument?

A. Not everyone who struggles will eventually achieve success.

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B. Seth may have achieved success first and struggled later.
C. Seth may achieve success without ever struggling.
D. There is no flaw in the argument.

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9. The candidate with the most screen time in a televised debate usually receives the largest poll
bump. As Mr. Smith received ten percent more screen time in the most recent debate, he should see a
significant improvement in his poll numbers.

Which of the following statements best describes the flaw in the argument presented in the above
passage?

A. That all politicians feature the same talking points in debates.

B. That an event which has occurred in the past is guaranteed to occur in the future.
C. That the use of poll numbers is always reflective of actual opinions and beliefs.
D. That most politicians focus on winning debates as compared to the other aspects of campaigning.

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10. The two opposing armies, Army 1 and Army 2, are the same in regards to size. Since certain
diseases that have recently afflicted Army 1 can be attributed to its crowded conditions in its
encampment, such diseases must also afflict Army 2.

The reasoning in the argument is most vulnerable to the criticism that it

A. does not distinguish between those diseases that are treatable and those that are not.
B. assumes that Army 2 is superior to Army 1.
C. fails to take into account factors other than size that may have caused disease.
D. fails to indicate whether the average life expectancy is lower in Army 1 than Army 2.

11. Lynn: "Economists have predicted that our generation will be the first that cannot confidently look
forward to having a better standard of living than that enjoyed by our parents."

Sean: "That's simply untrue. My father's standard of living is nowhere near as high as his parents' was,
and my own standard of living is already higher than that of my parents."

Which of the following best describes the error of reasoning contained in Sean's argument above?

A. It relies on a sample that may be unrepresentative.

B. It assumes the truth of what it sets out to prove.
C. It uses evidence of a correlation to argue the existence of a causal relationship.
D. It is based on an unproven speculation about future events.

12. Politician: "Most of those at the meeting were not persuaded by Kuyler’s argument, nor should
they have been, for Kuyler’s argument implied that it would be improper to enter into a contract with
the government; and yet Kuyler’s company has had numerous lucrative contracts with the
government."

Which one of the following describes a flaw in the politician’s argument?

A. It concludes that an argument is defective merely on the grounds that the argument has failed to
persuade anyone of the truth of its conclusion.
B. It relies on evidence that is likely to be biased.
C. It rejects an argument merely on the grounds that the arguer has not behaved in a way that is
consistent with the argument.
D. It rejects a position merely on the grounds that an inadequate argument has been given for it.
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13. Diplomat: "Every major war in the last 200 years has been preceded by a short, sharp increase in
the acquisition of weapons by the nations that subsequently became participants in those conflicts.

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Clearly, therefore, arms control agreements will preserve peace."

Of the following, which one most accurately describes a reasoning flaw in the diplomat’s argument?

A. The argument claims that an event of the second type will not occur unless an event of the first type
occurs.
B. The argument reasons that, simply because weapons are used in war, a rapid, dramatic increase in
the acquisition of weapons will always lead to war.
C. The argument fails to consider that some of the minor wars that have occurred in the last 200 years
may also have been preceded by rapid increases in the acquisition of weapons by the nations that
subsequently became participants in those wars.
D. The argument fails to consider that a short, sharp increase in the acquisition of weapons by a nation
may be a response to the increased armament of neighbouring nations.

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14. It is highly likely that Joel is a professional basketball player. Like most professional basketball
players, Joel is over 2 metres tall. The vast majority of people who are not professional basketball
players are not over 2 metres tall.

The reasoning in the argument above is flawed in that:

A. ignores the possibility that Joel wasn't always over 2 metres tall.
B. assumes that all professional basketball players are over 2 metres tall.
C. assumes that professional athletes who play sports other than basketball are never over 2 metres
tall.
D. ignores the possibility that the majority of people who are over 2 metres tall are not professional
basketball players.

15. Lisa: "Wu has made extensive claims that the consumption of red meat is a primary cause of
cancer. But Wu’s own data shows only a strong correlation between the consumption of red meat and
the incidence of cancer, and since any scientist knows that correlation does not prove causation, Wu’s
claims must be false."

Which of the following describes an error in Lisa’s reasoning?

A. To fail to establish causation is not to succeed in disproving causation.

B. Wu’s data is not provided for the reader’s own analysis.
C. Since Wu has demonstrated correlation, his arguments must be accepted.
D. She attacks Wu’s credibility rather than the basis of his arguments.

16. Coach: “Members of our sports team included, for the winter season, 80 football players and 40
cross-country runners; for the summer season, 20 cricketers and 40 swimmers; for the spring season,
50 track-team members and 20 tennis players. Each athlete participates in his or her sport five days a
week for the whole three-month season, and no athlete is on two teams during any one season.
Therefore, adding these figures, we find our team sports program serves 250 different individual
athletes.”

In drawing the conclusion, the coach fails to consider the relevant possibility that

A. athletes can be on more than one team in a single season.

B. athletes can be on teams in more than one season.
C. some of the team sports require a larger number of athletes on the team than do others.
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D. more athletes participate in team sports during one season than during another.

17. Last year, Scienterrific doubled its research and development budget, and nearly doubled its

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profit. Fantascientific, a competitor of Scienterrific, should triple its research and development budget,
and in this way, significantly increase its profitability.

A major flaw in the argument above is that

A. Fantascientific plans to triple, rather than double, its research and development budget.
B. it assumes that the market can grow endlessly.
C. the reason for the increase in Scienterrific's profitability is not necessarily its investment in
research and development.
D. it ignores the possibility that investing in other departments of Fantascientific may improve
profitability more than investing in the research and development department.

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18. It is not unusual to see the ball fall into a black slot on a roulette wheel four times in a row. But for
it to fall five or six times in a row into the same colour is very unusual. Therefore you can win money
by waiting for a run of five of the same colour and then betting against that colour.

If the roulette wheel in question is a fair wheel, which of the following observations or facts, if it were
true, would best reveal a fallacy in the logic?

A. If there were a reliable way to win at roulette it would be well-known by now.

B. A person who makes money this way once or twice, will carry on to lose that money after a few
more times.
C. The probability of getting a particular colour decreases with the number of times the colour has
appeared.
D. The probability of getting a particular colour is always the same no matter what has gone before.

19. Prison inmates are far more likely to be mentally ill than members of the general population. This
fact shows that the peculiar environment of prison, with its inherent stresses, tends to cause mental
illness.

The reasoning in the argument is most vulnerable to criticism on the basis that the argument

A. fails to define the term “mentally ill”.

B. assumes that the prison environment is unique.
C. focuses on stress while ignoring other characteristics of the prison environment.
D. takes a correlation between mental illness and prison as proof that prison causes mental illness.

20. Dog owners who frequently discipline their dogs report a higher incidence of misbehaviour than
do dog owners who rarely or never discipline their dogs. We can conclude from this that discipline
does not improve dogs’ behaviour; on the contrary, it encourages misbehaviour.

The argument is flawed in that it fails to consider the possibility that

A. dogs’ misbehaviour is the cause of, rather than the result of, frequent discipline.
B. dogs learn from past experience how their owners are likely to react to misbehaviour.
C. discipline does not cause misbehaviour on the part of animals other than dogs.
D. cats rarely require discipline from their owners.

21. A high school football coach noticed that some of his players were frequently late to morning
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football practices and seemed somewhat lethargic after they did arrive. He directed his assistant
coach to look into the matter. The assistant coach reported back that most of the late and less active
players belonged to a social club that was known for its frequent and late night parties. The coach

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then prohibited all of his football players from being members of this social club. He reported that this
would ensure that his players would get to practice on time and that they would have more
productive practice sessions.

The head coach’s reasoning is not sound because he fails to establish which one of the following:

A. He fails to establish a system to monitor his players’ social club membership and to impose
penalties for those who do not follow his new rule.
B. He fails to establish that his players are big and strong enough to be successful football players.
C. He fails to establish that his new policy will ensure that at least some of his football players will go
to bed at a more reasonable hour.
D. He fails to establish that the social club won't suffer due to the lack of attendance from his players.

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22. Just a few years ago, salmon could not survive in the oxygen-starved and polluted Thames. Nor
could many other species. But now, after years of determined effort, the salmon have returned, and
that is a sure sign that the river is pollution-free.

Each of the following indicates a possible flaw in the reasoning in the passage above EXCEPT:

A. The salmon that have returned may be of a strain that is unaffected by the pollutants.
B. The pollution may have been reduced to a level at which the salmon can survive.
C. Oxygen starvation is often a consequence of pollution, and this may have killed the salmon.
D. The salmon may have been killed by one particular pollutant, which has now been removed while
others remain.

23. Ralph: "A cat will not be affectionate toward people unless it is handled when it is a kitten. Since
the cat that Paula plans to give to her friend was handled when it was a kitten, that cat will be
affectionate toward people."

Which of the following describes an error in Ralph’s reasoning?

A. He neglects to provide information on the breed of the cat in question.

B. He mistakes a necessary condition for a sufficient condition.
C. He ignores the possibility of dogs being more affectionate that cats.
D. He mistakes a correlation for a cause.

24. Consumer Advocate: "Your company continues to advertise its product as “all natural” and
“organic” despite the fact that you feed your livestock grain laced with growth hormone. This practice
indicates your willingness to deceive your customers."

Company Representative: "Because we have a long history of manufacturing excellent products,

customers trust our brand and the strategies we use to market it."

The company representative’s response to the consumer advocate’s charge is flawed because it

A. assumes that a long history of manufacturing excellent products leads consumers to trust a
company.
B. fails to address whether the company’s practices are intended to deceive its customers.
C. does not mention other marketing strategies employed by the company.
D. simply rejects the consumer advocate’s argument without providing any reason to do so.
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25. An electronics company plans to lure first-time buyers this holiday season. One aspect of its
marketing strategy will be to make widely available discount coupons for its products that customers

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can use at any retailer.

Which of the following, if true, would point to a possible flaw in the company's plan?

A. The coupons would make it less likely that retailers prominently stock the company's offerings in
places likely to attract first-time buyers.
B. The company is supporting the coupon distribution effort with a nationwide television advertising
campaign.
C. The company's competitors are not expected to offer coupons of any kind this holiday season.
D. Most retailers are accustomed to accepting discount coupons from manufacturers and train their
employees accordingly.

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26. Tamara: "My previous employer, WXY Corporation, owes me my final paycheck, and I have been
having trouble collecting it. Tomorrow, I am going to WXY 's payroll office with my lawyer, and I am
not coming home without my final paycheck. So, if I am not home tomorrow night, you will know that
I haven't collected my final paycheck."

Which of the following best describes the flaw in Tamara's reasoning?

A. It erroneously presumes that WXY can afford to pay Tamara's final paycheck.
B. It mistakenly assumes that the presence of a lawyer will guarantee the collection of the final
paycheck.
C. It unfairly attacks the character of the employees in WXY 's payroll office rather than the policies
they execute.
D. It mistakes something that could be true for something that must be true.

27. Restaurant manager: "In response to requests from our patrons for more variety, we recently
introduced three new meals to our menu: an eggplant and zucchini casserole with tomatoes, brown
rice with mushrooms, and potatoes baked with cheese. The first two are frequently ordered, but no
one orders the potato dish, although it costs less than the other two. Clearly, then, our patrons prefer
not to eat potatoes."

Which one of the following is an error of reasoning in the restaurant manager’s argument?

A. He assumes that two things that occur at the same time have a common cause.
B. He ignores possible differences between what people say they want and what they actually choose.
C. He treats one of several plausible explanations of a phenomenon as the only possible explanation.
D. He assumes that mushrooms are popular with the restaurant's patrons.

28. Tutor: "Over the last 25 years, every student to score over 99 in the HSC exam had an IQ score of at
least 130. Maurice did an IQ test last week and scored 132. Thus, Maurice will definitely score more
than 99 in his HSC exam."

The tutor’s argument is most vulnerable to which one of the following objections?

A. The argument ignores the fact that many students who score over 99 in the HSC exam have IQ
scores even higher than 132.
B. The argument draws a general conclusion about a group based on data about an unrepresentative
sample of that group.
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C. The argument assumes that 130 is a high IQ score.
D. The argument mistakes a condition necessary for bringing about a result for a condition sufficient
for doing so.

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29. A broad based study of elderly people who say that they have never in their lives suffered from
serious insomnia reveals that they usually kept to regular sleeping schedules, going to sleep at about
the same time every night and rising at about the same time each morning. Young people who wish to
avoid serious insomnia into old age would therefore stand a good chance of doing so if they retire at
the same hour each night and rise at the same hour each morning.

A flaw in the argument above is that it

A. concludes that one condition is the cause of another when only a correlation has been established
between them.
B. bases its conclusion on contradictory evidence.

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C. assumes that a condition which has had a certain result in the past will not have the same result in
the future.
D. fails to recognise that people may differ in what they consider to be "serious" insomnia.

30. Administrator: "Because revenue fell by 15 percent this year, our company needs to reduce next
year’s budget. This could be accomplished by eliminating staff positions. It could also be accomplished
by reducing staff salaries. Since we will not eliminate any staff positions, we must reduce staff
salaries."

The administrator’s reasoning is flawed because the administrator

A. assumes that more money would be saved by reducing staff salaries than would be saved by
eliminating staff positions.
B. assumes that the budget cannot be reduced unless staff positions are eliminated or staff salaries are
reduced.
C. ignores the possibility that, though budget cuts will be needed, they will not need to be as high as 15
percent.
D. assumes that some staff members will leave their jobs rather than accept a reduced salary.

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 Thinking Skills Lesson 1 Homework

1. Susan: "You can't get a tattoo, or you'll end up like your aunt Barbara who got a tattoo and is now in
prison."

Which one of the following describes a flaw in Susan’s argument?

A. She assumes that Barbara has only one tattoo.

B. She does not specify what crime Barbara committed in order to end up in prison.
C. She assumes that getting a tattoo has an impact on someone going to prison.
D. She takes for granted that Barbara wanted to end up in prison.

2. Journalist: "Recent reports that the mayor received illegal campaign contributions must be false. It's
just been uncovered that a disgruntled former employee has been leaking the stories to the press
because of a personal issue with the mayor."

Which one of the following describes a potential flaw in the journalist's reasoning?

A. The journalist fails to consider that even if a disgruntled employee leaked the stories, the mayor
could still have received illegal contributions.
B. The journalist fails to reveal what the nature of the personal issue was.
C. The journalist assumes that the mayor will win the next election.
D. The journalist takes for granted that the mayor is an honest politician.

3. Sports commentator: "LeBron James is now the most recognised athlete in the world. A recent poll
by Sports Illustrated showed that he is by far the most recognised athlete amongst its readers."

Which one of the following describes the flaw in the sports commentator's reasoning?

A. He assumes that Sports Illustrated is the best sports magazine on the market.
B. He takes for granted that a poll of Sports Illustrated readers is representative of the entire world
population.
C. He fails to provide the actual numerical results from the poll by Sports illustrated.
D. He fails to provide details on what type of athlete LeBron James is.

4. Barry: "As everyone knows, consuming a moderate amount of wine can be part of a healthy diet.
Wine contains antioxidants, which have been proven to support good health."
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Which one of the following describes the flaw in Barry's reasoning?

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A. He fails to consider that drinking more than a moderate amount of wine may be unhealthy.
B. He assumes that wine tastes better than other alcoholic beverages.
C. He fails to consider the health benefits of not drinking alcohol at all.
D. He fails to consider that there are other aspects that could make drinking a moderate amount of
wine unhealthy overall.

5. Groups that oppose action to reduce emission of gases that contribute to global warming have
major incentives to deny the existence of global warming. Many of these groups are backed by
wealthy individuals or corporations that have a lot to lose from new rules governing greenhouse gas
emissions. This makes it likely that these groups’ publications will contain inaccurate information or
misrepresent scientific evidence about global warming.

This argument is most vulnerable to the criticism that it:

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A. Does not show that supporters of regulation on global warming do not have similar incentives to
confirm the existence of global warming.
B. Assumes that global warming is caused by humans.
C. Relies on the fact that a group has an incentive to produce inaccurate research as proof that their
research is faulty.
D. Relies on an analogy that is not applicable.

6. Every physically fit person is confident. Mike is a smart, young professional who is confident. He
must also be physically fit.

Which of the following best expresses the flaw in the reasoning outlined above?

A. It mistakes a sufficient condition for a necessary one.

B. It fails to define what "physically fit" means.
C. It assumes that being confident is important.
D. It mistakes being physically fit for being confident.

7. If you can fly, then you are a bird. Australian prime minister Anthony Albanese can fly. Therefore
Anthony Albanese is a bird.

If the premise of the argument above is taken to be true, which of the following is a flaw in the
reasoning?

A. Humans cannot fly.

B. Anthony Albanese is not a bird.
C. Birds cannot fly.
D. There is no flaw in the reasoning.

8. Car advertisement: "Our cars are the best automobiles on the road today. This is true because their
economical fuel systems have done wonders to help diminish the use of fossil fuels and slow the
increase of pollution in our world."

The flaw in the car advertisement's reasoning is that

A. it ignores the fact that there would be even less pollution if there were no cars at all on the road.
B. it assumes that the faster a car can travel, the better it is.
C. it takes for granted that the best cars are those that diminish the use of fossil fuels and slow the
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increase of pollution.
D. it assumes that economical fuel systems allow cars to travel at higher speeds.

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9. With the continued water shortage in our area, the Water Department has had to restrict the use of
water during daylight hours and increase the cost of water to consumers. An average water bill has
risen twenty-four dollars a year for three years in a row. Three years from now, our water costs will
be astronomical.

A major flaw in the reasoning is that it

A. relies upon figures that are imprecise to support a conclusion.

B. fails to indicate exactly how high expenses will be in three years.
C. assumes the conditions of the past three years will continue.
D. ignores the likelihood of the high cost driving down the water usage.

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10. School Principal: "In 2018 and 2019, when the limit on class size in years 4, 5, and 6 was 25, our
students had an average reading score of 79 and an average maths score of 75 on the state tests
administered at the end of year 6. But, in 2020 and 2021, when the limit on class size was raised to 28,
our students had average scores of 75 on the state reading tests and 75 on the state maths tests. The
increase in class-size has brought about the decline in state test scores."

Which one of the following is a major flaw in the school principal 's reasoning?

A. He believes that test scores are accurate.

B. He fails to realise that some students’ maths test scores have not declined, though the average has.
C. He regards scores in maths tests as more important than scores in reading.
D. He assumes that class size alone has caused the variation in test scores.

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Logic Puzzle

Use the provided clues to match up all of the options. For a negative statement, put a cross in the grid,
and for a positive statement, put a tick. Keep going through the clues until you arrive at the solutions
and write them down in the bottom grid.

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