H3 Test 3 Practice Questions [106 marks]

1. [Maximum mark: 6] EXN.2.AHL.TZ0.9

A biased coin is weighted such that the probability, p, of obtaining a tail is 0. 6. The coin is tossed repeatedly and
independently until a tail is obtained.

Let E be the event “obtaining the first tail on an even numbered toss”.

Find P(E). [6]

Markscheme

* This sample question was produced by experienced DP mathematics senior examiners to aid teachers in preparing for
external assessment in the new MAA course. There may be minor differences in formatting compared to formal exam
papers.

METHOD 1

En is the event “the first tail occurs on the 2nd, 4th, 6th, …, 2nth toss”

P(E) = Σ P(E n ) (A1)

n=1

Note: Award A1 for deducing that either 1 head before a tail or 3 heads before a tail or 5 heads before a tail etc. is
required. In other words, deduces (2n − 1) heads before a tail.

3 5
P(E) = 0. 4 × 0. 6 + (0. 4) × 0. 6 + (0. 4) × 0. 6 + … M1A1

Note: Award M1 for attempting to form an infinite geometric series.

∞
2n−1
Note: Award A1 for P(E) = Σ (0. 4) (0. 6).
n=1

u1 2
uses S ∞ =
1−r
with u 1 = 0. 6 × 0. 4 and r = (0. 4) (M1)

u1 2
Note: Award M1 for using S ∞ =
1−r
with u 1 = 0. 4 and r = (0. 4)

=
0.6×0.4
2
A1
1−(0.4)

= 0. 286 (=
2

7
) A1

METHOD 2
 let T 1 be the event “tail occurs on the first toss”

uses P(E) = P(E T 1 )P(T 1 ) + P(E T 1′)P(T 1′) M1

concludes that P(E T 1 ) = 0 and so P(E) = P(E T 1′)P(T 1′) R1

P(E T 1′) = P(E′)(= 1 − P(E)) A1

Note: Award A1 for concluding: given that a tail is not obtained on the first toss, then P(E T 1′) is the probability that
the first tail is obtained after a further odd number of tosses, P(E′).

P(T 1′) = 0 .4

P(E) = 0 .4 (1 − P(E)) A1

attempts to solve for P(E) (M1)

= 0. 286 (=
2

7
) A1

[6 marks]

2. [Maximum mark: 5] 24M.1.AHL.TZ2.6

A farmer grows two types of apples—cooking apples and eating apples. The weights of the apples, in grams, can be
modelled as normal distributions with the following parameters.

For each type of apple you can assume that 95 % of the weights are within two standard deviations of the mean.

(a) Find the percentage of eating apples that have a weight greater than 140 g. [1]

Markscheme

2. 5 (%) A1

[1 mark]

The farmer grows a large number of apples of which 80 % are eating apples.

Both types of apples are picked and randomly mixed together in a cleaning machine.

After cleaning, the machine separates out those that have a weight greater than 140 g into a container.
 (b) An apple is randomly selected from this container. Find the probability that it is an eating apple. Give your
answer in the form c

d
, where c, d ∈ Z
+
. [4]

Markscheme

P(weight of cooking apples > 140) = 0. 5(50 %) (seen anywhere) (A1)

recognition of conditional probability in context (M1)

P(eating apple and weight of eating apple>140)

P(eating apple |weight > 140) =
P(weight of apple>140)

OR

P(eating apple ∩ weight of eating apple>140)

P(eating apple ∩ weight of eating apple>140)+P(cooking apple ∩ weight of cooking apple>140)

OR

P(eating apple)P(weight of eating apple>140)

P(eating apple)P(weight of eating apple>140)+P(cooking apple)P(weight of cooking apple>140)

=
0.8×0.025

0.8×0.025+0.2×0.5
(=
80×2.5

80×2.5+20×50
) (A1)

=
200

1200
(=
1

6
) A1

Note: Accept any equivalent exact answer written as a fraction.

[4 marks]

3. [Maximum mark: 6] 24M.2.AHL.TZ1.6

In Happyland, the weather on any given day is independent of the weather on any other day. On any day in May, the
probability of rain is 0. 2. May has 31 days.

Find the probability that

(a) it rains on exactly 10 days in May; [2]

Markscheme

let X be the number of days of rain in May

recognition of binomial distribution (M1)

10 21 n−r
X~B(31, 0. 2) or 31
C
10
(0. 2) (0. 8) or X~B(n, p) or n r
C rp (1 − p)

P(X = 10) = 0. 0418894 …

= 0. 0419 A1
 Note: If no working shown, award (M1)A0 for 0. 042 (2 sf )

[2 marks]

(b) it rains on at least 10 days in May; [2]

Markscheme

let X be the number of days of rain in May

recognition of need to find P(X ≥ 10)(= 1 − P(X ≤ 9)) (M1)

0. 0745998 … (= 1 − 0. 925400 …)

= 0. 0746 A1

Note: If no working shown, award (M1)A0 for 0. 075 (2 sf )

[2 marks]

(c) the first day that it rains in May is on the 10th day. [2]

Markscheme

let X be the number of days of rain in May

recognition of 9 days with no rain followed by a day of rain (M1)

9
0. 8 × 0. 2 = 0. 0268435 …

= 0. 0268 A1

Note: If no working shown, award (M1)A0 for 0. 027 (2 sf )

[2 marks]

4. [Maximum mark: 4] 23N.1.SL.TZ2.3

Events A and B are such that P(A) = 0. 65, P(B) = 0. 75 and P(A ∩ B) = 0. 6.

(a) Find P(A ∪ B). [2]

Markscheme

(P(A ∪ B) =)0. 65 + 0. 75 − 0. 6 OR 0. 05 + 0. 6 + 0. 15 (A1)

= 0. 8 A1
 [2 marks]

(b) Hence, or otherwise, find P(A′∩B′). [2]

Markscheme

recognition that A′∩B′= (A ∪ B)′ OR A′∩B′= 1 − A ∪ B

(region/value may be seen in a correctly shaded/labeled Venn diagram) (M1)

(= 1 − 0. 8)

= 0. 2 A1

Note: For the final mark, 0.2 must be stated as the candidate’s answer, or labeled as P(A′∩B′) in their Venn diagram.
Just seeing an unlabeled 0.2 in the correct region of their diagram earns M1A0.

[2 marks]

5. [Maximum mark: 6] 23M.1.AHL.TZ1.2

On a Monday at an amusement park, a sample of 40 visitors was randomly selected as they were leaving the park. They
were asked how many times that day they had been on a ride called The Dragon. This information is summarized in the
following frequency table.

It can be assumed that this sample is representative of all visitors to the park for the following day.

(a) For the following day, Tuesday, estimate

(a.i) the probability that a randomly selected visitor will ride The Dragon; [2]

Markscheme

summing frequencies of riders or finding complement (M1)

probability= 34

40
A1

[2 marks]
 (a.ii) the expected number of times a visitor will ride The Dragon. [2]

Markscheme

attempt to find expected value

16

40
+ (2 ×
13

40
) + (3 ×
2

40
) + (4 ×
3

40
) (M1)

60

40
(= 1. 5) A1

[2 marks]

It is known that 1000 visitors will attend the amusement park on Tuesday. The Dragon can carry a maximum of 10 people each
time it runs.

(b) Estimate the minimum number of times The Dragon must run to satisfy demand. [2]

Markscheme

evidence of their rides/visitor ×1000 or ÷10 (M1)

1500 OR 0. 15

150 (times) A1

[2 marks]

6. [Maximum mark: 6] 22N.1.SL.TZ0.6

Events A and B are such that P(A) = 0. 3 and P(B) = 0. 8.

(a) Determine the value of P(A ∩ B) in the case where the events A and B are independent. [1]

Markscheme

P(A ∩ B) = 0. 24 A1

[1 mark]

(b) Determine the minimum possible value of P(A ∩ B). [3]

Markscheme

P(A ∪ B) = 1. 1 − P(A ∩ B) (A1)

 (0 ≤)P(A ∪ B) ≤ 1 (M1)

Note: This may be conveyed in a clearly labelled diagram or written explanation where P(A ∪ B) = 1

the minimum value of P(A ∩ B) is 0. 1 A1

[3 marks]

(c) Determine the maximum possible value of P(A ∩ B), justifying your answer. [2]

Markscheme

A is a subset of B (so P(A ∩ B) = P(A)). R1

Note: This may be conveyed in a clearly labelled diagram where A is completely inside B, or in a written explanation
indicating that P(A ∩ B) = P(A)

so the maximum value of P(A ∩ B) is 0. 3 A1

Note: Do not award R0A1.

[2 marks]

7. [Maximum mark: 6] 22M.2.SL.TZ1.4

A discrete random variable, X , has the following probability distribution:

(a) Show that 2k 2 − k + 0. 12 = 0. [1]

Markscheme

0. 41 + k − 0. 28 + 0. 46 + 0. 29 − 2k
2
= 1 OR k − 2k
2
+ 0. 01 = 0. 13 (or equivalent) A1

2k
2
− k + 0. 12 = 0 AG

[1 mark]
 (b) Find the value of k, giving a reason for your answer. [3]

Markscheme

one of 0. 2 OR 0. 3 (M1)

k = 0. 3 A1

reasoning to reject k = 0. 2 eg P(1) = k − 0. 28 ≥ 0 therefore k ≠ 0. 2 R1

[3 marks]

(c) Hence, find E(X). [2]

Markscheme

attempting to use the expected value formula (M1)

2
E(X) = 0 × 0. 41 + 1 × (0. 3 − 0. 28) + 2 × 0. 46 + 3 × (0. 29 − 2 × 0. 3 )

= 1. 27 A1

Note: Award M1A0 if additional values are given.

[2 marks]

8. [Maximum mark: 6] 22M.2.SL.TZ2.4

Events A and B are independent and P(A) = 3P(B).

Given that P(A ∪ B) = 0. 68, find P(B). [6]

Markscheme

P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A ∩ B) = 0. 68

substitution of P(A) ⋅ P(B) for P(A ∩ B) in P(A ∪ B) (M1)

P(A) + P(B) − P(A)P(B) (= 0. 68)

substitution of 3P(B) for P(A) (M1)

3P(B) + P(B) − 3P(B)P(B) = 0. 68 (or equivalent) (A1)

Note: The first two M marks are independent of each other.

 attempts to solve their quadratic equation (M1)

1 17
P(B) = 0. 2, 1. 133 … ( , )
5 15

P(B) = 0. 2 (=
1

5
) A2

Note: Award A1 if both answers are given as final answers for P(B).

[6 marks]

9. [Maximum mark: 7] 22M.2.AHL.TZ2.8

Rachel and Sophia are competing in a javelin-throwing competition.

The distances, R metres, thrown by Rachel can be modelled by a normal distribution with mean 56. 5 and
standard deviation 3.

The distances, S metres, thrown by Sophia can be modelled by a normal distribution with mean 57. 5 and
standard deviation 1. 8.

In the first round of competition, each competitor must have five throws. To qualify for the next round of
competition, a competitor must record at least one throw of 60 metres or greater in the first round.

Find the probability that only one of Rachel or Sophia qualifies for the next round of competition. [7]

Markscheme

Rachel: R~N(56. 5, 3 2 )

P(R ≥ 60) = 0. 1216 … (A1)

Sophia: S~N(57. 5, 1. 8 2 )

P(S ≥ 60) = 0. 0824 … (A1)

recognises binomial distribution with n = 5 (M1)

let N R represent the number of Rachel’s throws that are longer than 60 metres

N R ~B(5, 0. 1216 …)

either P(N R ≥ 1) = 0. 4772 … or P(N R = 0) = 0. 5227 … (A1)

let N S represent the number of Sophia’s throws that are longer than 60 metres

N S ~B(5, 0. 0824 …)

either P(N S ≥ 1) = 0. 3495 … or P(N S = 0) = 0. 6504 … (A1)

EITHER
 uses P(N R ≥ 1)P(N S = 0) + P(N S ≥ 1)P(N R = 0) (M1)

P(one of Rachel or Sophia qualif y) = (0. 4772 … × 0. 6504) + (0. 3495 … × 0. 5227 …)

OR

uses P(N R ≥ 1) + P(N S ≥ 1) − 2 × P(N R ≥ 1) × P(N S ≥ 1) (M1)

P(one of Rachel or Sophia qualif y) = 0. 4772 … + 0. 3495 … − 2 × 0. 4772 … × 0. 3495 …

THEN

= 0. 4931 …

= 0. 493 A1

Note: M marks are not dependent on the previous A marks.

[7 marks]

10. [Maximum mark: 5] 21N.1.SL.TZ0.4

Box 1 contains 5 red balls and 2 white balls.

Box 2 contains 4 red balls and 3 white balls.

(a) A box is chosen at random and a ball is drawn. Find the probability that the ball is red. [3]

Markscheme

valid approach to find P(R) (M1)

tree diagram (must include probabilty of picking box) with correct required probabilities

OR P(R ∩ B 1 ) + P(R ∩ B 2 ) OR P(R B 1 )P(B 1 ) + P(R B 2 )P(B 2 )

5 1 4 1

7
⋅
2
+
7
⋅
2
(A1)

9
P(R) =
14
A1

[3 marks]

(b) Let A be the event that “box 1 is chosen” and let R be the event that “a red ball is drawn”.

Determine whether events A and R are independent. [2]

 Markscheme

events A and R are not independent, since 9

14
⋅
1

2
≠
5

14
OR 5

7
≠
9

14
OR 5

9
≠
1

OR an explanation e.g. different number of red balls in each box A2

Note: Both conclusion and reasoning are required. Do not split the A2.

[2 marks]

11. [Maximum mark: 7] 21N.2.SL.TZ0.4

A factory manufactures lamps. It is known that the probability that a lamp is found to be defective is 0. 05. A random
sample of 30 lamps is tested.

(a) Find the probability that there is at least one defective lamp in the sample. [3]

Markscheme

recognize that the variable has a Binomial distribution (M1)

X~B(30, 0. 05)

attempt to find P(X ≥ 1) (M1)

1 − P(X = 0) OR 1 − 0. 95
30
OR 1 − 0. 214638 … OR 0. 785361 …

Note: The two M marks are independent of each other.

P(X ≥ 1)=0.785 A1

[3 marks]

(b) Given that there is at least one defective lamp in the sample, find the probability that there are at most two
defective lamps. [4]

Markscheme

recognition of conditional probability (M1)

P(X ≤ 2 X ≥ 1) OR P(at most 2 def ective | at least 1 def ective)

Note: Recognition must be shown in context either in words or symbols but not just P(A B).
 P(1≤X≤2) P(X=1)+P(X=2)

P(X≥1)
OR P(X≥1)
(A1)

OR OR (A1)
0.597540… 0.812178…−0.214638… 0.338903…+0.258636…

0.785361… 0.785361… 0.785361…

= 0. 760847 …

P(X ≤ 2 X ≥ 1) = 0. 761 A1

[4 marks]

12. [Maximum mark: 6] 21M.2.SL.TZ1.3

A company produces bags of sugar whose masses, in grams, can be modelled by a normal distribution with mean 1000 and
standard deviation 3. 5. A bag of sugar is rejected for sale if its mass is less than 995 grams.

(a) Find the probability that a bag selected at random is rejected. [2]

Markscheme

Note: In this question, do not penalise incorrect use of strict inequality signs.

Let X = mass of a bag of sugar

evidence of identifying the correct area (M1)

P(X < 995) = 0. 0765637 …

= 0. 0766 A1

[2 marks]

(b) Estimate the number of bags which will be rejected from a random sample of 100 bags. [1]

Markscheme

Note: In this question, do not penalise incorrect use of strict inequality signs.

Let X = mass of a bag of sugar

0. 0766 × 100

≈ 8 A1
 Note: Accept 7. 66.

[1 mark]

(c) Given that a bag is not rejected, find the probability that it has a mass greater than 1005 grams. [3]

Markscheme

Note: In this question, do not penalise incorrect use of strict inequality signs.

Let X = mass of a bag of sugar

recognition that P(X > 1005 X ≥ 995) is required (M1)

P(X≥995∩X>1005)

P(X≥995)

P(X>1005)

P(X≥995)
(A1)

0.0765637… 0.0765637…
(= )
1−0.0765637… 0.923436…

= 0. 0829 A1

[3 marks]

13. [Maximum mark: 5] 19M.2.AHL.TZ2.H_2

Timmy owns a shop. His daily income from selling his goods can be modelled as a normal distribution, with a mean daily
income of $820, and a standard deviation of $230. To make a profit, Timmy’s daily income needs to be greater than $1000.

(a) Calculate the probability that, on a randomly selected day, Timmy makes a profit. [2]

Markscheme

* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain minor differences in marking or structure.

X ~ N(820, 2302) (M1)

Note: Award M1 for an attempt to use normal distribution. Accept labelled normal graph.

⇒P(X > 1000) = 0.217 A1

[2 marks]

(b) The shop is open for 24 days every month.

 Calculate the probability that, in a randomly selected month, Timmy makes a profit on between 5 and 10 [3]
days (inclusive).

Markscheme

Y ~ B(24,0.217...) (M1)

Note: Award M1 for recognition of binomial distribution with parameters.

P(Y ≤ 10) − P(Y ≤ 4) (M1)

Note: Award M1 for an attempt to find P(5 ≤ Y ≤ 10) or P(Y ≤ 10) − P(Y ≤ 4).

= 0.613 A1

[3 marks]

14. [Maximum mark: 8] 19M.2.AHL.TZ2.H_3

Iqbal attempts three practice papers in mathematics. The probability that he passes the first paper is 0.6. Whenever he gains a
pass in a paper, his confidence increases so that the probability of him passing the next paper increases by 0.1. Whenever he
fails a paper the probability of him passing the next paper is 0.6.

(a) Complete the given probability tree diagram for Iqbal’s three attempts, labelling each branch with the
correct probability.

[3]

Markscheme

* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain minor differences in marking or structure.
 A1A1A1

Note: Award A1 for each correct column of probabilities.

[3 marks]

(b) Calculate the probability that Iqbal passes at least two of the papers he attempts. [2]

Markscheme

probability (at least twice) =

EITHER

(0.6 × 0.7 × 0.8) + (0.6 × 0.7 × 0.2) + (0.6 × 0.3 × 0.6) + (0.4 × 0.6 × 0.7) (M1)

OR

(0.6 × 0.7) + (0.6 × 0.3 × 0.6) + (0.4 × 0.6 × 0.7) (M1)

Note: Award M1 for summing all required probabilities.

THEN

= 0.696 A1

[2 marks]

(c) Find the probability that Iqbal passes his third paper, given that he passed only one previous paper. [3]

Markscheme

P(passes third paper given only one paper passed before)

P (passes third AND only one paper passed bef ore)

=
P (passes once in f irst two papers)
(M1)

(0.6×0.3×0.6)+(0.4×0.6×0.7)
=
(0.6×0.3)+(0.4×0.6)
A1

= 0.657 A1
 [3 marks]

15. [Maximum mark: 6] 18N.1.AHL.TZ0.H_1

Consider two events, A and B, such that P (A) = P (A ∩ B) = 0.4 and P (A ∩ B) = 0.1.
′

(a) By drawing a Venn diagram, or otherwise, find P (A ∪ B). [3]

Markscheme

* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain minor differences in marking or structure.

(M1)

Note: Award M1 for a Venn diagram with at least one probability in the correct region.

EITHER

′
P (A ∩ B ) = 0.3 (A1)

P (A ∪ B) = 0.3 + 0.4 + 0.1 = 0.8 A1

OR

P (B) = 0.5 (A1)

P (A ∪ B) = 0.5 + 0.4 − 0.1 = 0.8 A1

[3 marks]

(b) Show that the events A and B are not independent. [3]

Markscheme

METHOD 1

P (A)P (B) = 0.4 × 0.5 (M1)

= 0.2 A1

statement that their P (A)P (B) ≠ P (A ∩ B) R1

 Note: Award R1 for correct reasoning from their value.

⇒ A, B not independent AG

METHOD 2

P(A∩B) 0.1
P (A|B) =
P(B)
=
0.5
(M1)

= 0.2 A1

statement that their P (A|B) ≠ P (A) R1

Note: Award R1 for correct reasoning from their value.

⇒ A, B not independent AG

Note: Accept equivalent argument using P (B|A) = 0.25.

[3 marks]

16. [Maximum mark: 8] 18N.2.AHL.TZ0.H_3

It is known that 56 % of Infiglow batteries have a life of less than 16 hours, and 94 % have a life less than 17 hours. It can be
assumed that battery life is modelled by the normal distribution N (μ, σ ).
2

(a) Find the value of μ and the value of σ. [6]

Markscheme

* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain minor differences in marking or structure.

use of inverse normal (implied by ±0.1509… or ±1.554…) (M1)

P(X < 16) = 0.56

16−μ
⇒
σ
= 0.1509 … (A1)

P(X < 17) = 0.94

17−μ
⇒
σ
= 1.554 … (A1)

attempt to solve a pair of simultaneous equations (M1)

μ= 15.9, σ= 0.712 A1A1

[6 marks]

(b) Find the probability that a randomly selected Infiglow battery will have a life of at least 15 hours. [2]
 Markscheme

correctly shaded diagram or intent to find P(X ≥ 15) (M1)

= 0.895 A1

Note: Accept answers rounding to 0.89 or 0.90. Award M1A0 for the answer 0.9.

[2 marks]

17. [Maximum mark: 4] 20N.1.AHL.TZ0.H_1

A discrete random variable X has the probability distribution given by the following table.

Given that E(X) =

19

12
, determine the value of p and the value of q. [4]

Markscheme

* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain minor differences in marking or structure.

E(X) = (0 × p) + (1 ×
1

4
) + (2 ×
1

6
) + 3q(=
19

12
) (M1)

1 1 19
(⇒ + + 3q = )
4 3 12

q =
1

3
A1

p +
1

4
+
1

6
+ q = 1 (M1)

7
(⇒ p + q = )
12

p =
1

4
A1

[4 marks]

18. [Maximum mark: 5] 19N.1.AHL.TZ0.H_1

The probability distribution of a discrete random variable, X , is given by the following table, where N and p are constants.
(a) Find the value of p. [2]

Markscheme

p = 1 −
1

2
−
1

5
−
1

5
(M1)

=
1

10
A1

[2 marks]

(b) Given that E (X) = 10, find the value of N . [3]

Markscheme

attempt to find E (X) (M1)

A1
1 N
+ 1 + 2 + = 10
2 10

⇒ N = 65 A1

Note: Do not allow FT in part (b) if their p is outside the range 0 < p < 1.

[3 marks]

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