Short Notes for Industrial Engineering Forecasting + Simple Moving Average- fa -7o 4 Dana t Deon + Dans +o) + Moving Weight Average- Weight Moving Average * Single (Simple) Exponential Smoothing- Fe = Fes + (Des — Fess) or = (= a)Fea $a if previous forecasting is not given Fe= aD, + (1 = a)D,-4 +40 = aD a Where F,= Smoothed average forecast for period t F...=Previous period forecast =Smoothing constant + Linear Regression- Yaatox Yy=na+5y' x Bho enSerey) ec = (Dr - Fi) * Forecasting Error- * Mean Absolute Deviation- + Mean Square Error- se = + a * Mean Absolute Percentage Error- 1 MaPE = 7 Inventory If D= demand/year, ¢,=Order cost, = Carrying cost, P= Purchase price/unit Q"=Economic Order Quantity, K= Production Rate and C; =Shortage Cost/unit/period * Case-1 Purchase Model With Instantaneous Replenishment and Without Shortage- at E0Q Invertory cost = Order cost e BY N Total Cost = Unit cost + Invertory cost + Order cost = (0x?) +(2x 62) + (2xG)= (Dx P) + YDELe * — €ase-2 Manufacturing Model Without Shortage-Time 4. Total optimum cost = 20¢. (Pe * Case 3 Purchase Model With Shortage- Inventory 4 a - Total optimum cost = |[Link] te] * Case 4 Manufacturing Model With Shortfall s+ Lead Time Demand + Safety Stock = Reorder Point PERT and CPM © EFT = EST + activity time * LET =LST + Duration of activity Bs] (alos © Free Float- FFo= (E)-E))-Ty * Independent Float 17) =(z,-2,)- 1, - F, Slack of event’) Example- &=% @.ite 4,538 1, Total float = L2 - (E: + t2) = 57 - (20 + 19) =18 2. Free float = E2- Gi - ti2=0 3. Independent float = 2 ~ (Li + ti2) = -18 + PERT Expected time- ¢, = *#=*4 1. to = Optimistic time ive., shortest possible time to complete the activity if all goes well. 2. ty = Pessimistic time i.e., longest time that an activity could take if everything goes wrong. 3. fin = Most likelv time 1.e,, normal time of an activity would take. Crash cost ‘Normal time- Cras! Normal cost © Crashing Cost Slope (CS) = pense cs + Standard = Normal Variation 7Linear Programming ‘Simplex Method Case 1. Maximization Problem Max Z =3x1+5x2 sit 3xl42x2<18 -() xsd =U) x256 -UID, x12220 Standard Form: Max Z = 3x1 + 5x2 + Own + Owes + Ows 3x: + 2x2 + wi + Ow2 + OWs = 18 Xa + Oxe + Ows + we + Ows Ox: + x2 + Ows + Ow2 + ws To prepare initial Table: Table - I «| 3 5s 0 0 cx mo Wi We ow 3 ot 0 Ow 1 0 o 1 0 ws oa 0 0 hi 3 5 #0 0 . l= (2-9) = Gav-c)-c5 Interpretation of Simplex Table Table - 1 6 3 3] 0 0 o| ao [ew we wal by Ow 3 |2| 1 0 == 0 | 48 (1872-9) Ow 1 joj _o 10 Tw ot} Es 5 3 ty) 0 . Oo + Key Column + Min I; [ Most Negative } + Key Row > Min positive ratio. How to get next table ? + Leaving variable : 3 «Entering variable : x2 + Keyno.=1 + For old key row : New No.= Olid No./key No. + For other rows: (Corresponding Key Row No.) (Corresponding Key Column No.) Key No. New No.=Old No. + 18418 - (6*2)/1 =6 + 1(w3) = 0-0 - [1*(-5)1/« 3] 5 0 ° ° cx x |e ws ws ___wal_bi Ratio Ow 3 oo oO _-2| 6] (6/3-2) 0 w 1 oO 1 Oo} 4 (a/1=4) 5% 1 io 0 1] 6 (6/0-infinity) i aloo oO. 5| Z30 + Key Column > Min 1, + _ Key Row > Min positive ratio Table - II 6 3 5 oO oO ° oxi xa wi wa __wra| bi Ratio 3 1 0 43 © 2] 2 ow] oO oO 2/3 4&4 2} 2 5x 0 10 0 il6 i 0 oo 0 3 | 2=36 + This Is the final Table The Optimal Solution is x1 = 2, x2 = 6 giving Z = 36 Type of Solutions : Basic, Feasibie/Infeasible, Optimal/ —_Non-Optimal, Unique/Alternative Optimal, Bounded/Unbounded, Degenerate/Non-Degenerate Analysis of Solution 1. This is a Basic solution, as values of basic variables are Positive 2. This is a feasible solution, as values of basic variables, not containing Artificial Variable, are Positive and all constraints are satisfied 3. This Feasible solution is an Optimal, as all values in Index Row are positive. 4. If there is an Artificial Variable, as Basic variable in final table, it is called as Infeasible solution 5. This solution is unique Optimal, as the number of zeroes are equal to number of basic variables in Index Row in final Table. 6. If the number of zeroes are more than number of basic variables in Index Row in final Table, it is a case of mote than one optimal solutions. 7. This is a Bounded Solution, as the values of all Basic variables in final table, are finite positive. 8. This is a Non-degenerate Solution, as value of none of the basic variables is Zero , in final table. 9. If value of at least one of the basic variables is Zero in Index Row in final Table, it is a Degenerate Solution. Duality With Example 1. Case-1 Max.Z = 21> x2 + 3x3 st xt x2 +x < 10 2m xn ws 2 2x > 2x: - 3xs< 6 Xi, X2,x3 2 0 Dual of this would be MinZ =10y. +2y: + 6y3 sft yi+2y2 +2y3 > 1 yar ye -2ys 2-1 ya > y2 -3ys = 3 Yar Yarys 2 0,2. Case -2 Min Z = 20x: + 23 x2 sit -4x- x2 <-8 Sxi- 3x2 <-4 xa, 2 0 Dual of this would be MaxZ= By: + 4y2 Sit 4yi.-Sy2 < 20 yi + 3y2 < 23 ys 2 0, 3. Case-3 [Link] = x1+2x2 -3x3 sit 2x1 + x2 +x3 < 10 3.%:- x2 +2 x2 > 110(this need to be converted in less than form) x + 20 7% S14 X,X2 2 0, x2 unrestricted Dual of this would be Min. Za = 10 yi -110 y2+4 ys sit 2yi-3yzt¢ys 2 1 yat yo +2 yp yr =2y2-ys 2-3 vi, ye 2 0, y3 unrestricted 2 Assignment * Steps of Solving Assignment Problem- 1. Identify the minimum element in each row and subtract it from every element of that row. 2. Identify the minimum element in each column and subtract it from every element of that column 3. Make the assignments for the reduced matrix obtained from steps 1 and 2 in the following way: L. For each row or column with a single zero value cell that has not be assigned or eliminated, box L that zero value as an assigned cell. Il. For avery zero that becomes assigned, cross out (X) all other zeros in the same row and the same column. IIL. If for a row and a column, there are two or more zeros and one cannot be chosen by inspection, choose the cell arbitrarily for assignment. IV. The above process may be continued until every zero cell is either assigned L or crossed (X) 4. An optimal assignment is found, if the number of assigned cells equals the ‘number of rows (and columns). In case you have chosen a zero cell arbitrarily. there may be alternate optimal solutions. If no optimal solution is found, go to step 5. 5. Draw the minimum number of vertical and horizontal lines necessary to cover all the zeros in the reduced matrix obtained from step 3 by adopting the following procedure: L Mark all the rows that do not have assignments. Mark all the columns (not already marked) which have zeros in the Mark all the rows (not already marked) that have assignments in marked until no more rows or columns can be IL marked rows. I. columns. IV. Repeat steps 5 (ii) and marked v. Draw straight lines through all unmarked rows and marked columns.1. Select the smallest element (i.e., 1) from all the uncovered elements. Subtract this smallest element from all the uncovered elements and add it to the elements, which lie at the intersection of two lines. Thus, we obtain another reduced matrix for fresh assignment. Note- For maximization problem the matrix is converted into minimization problem by subtracting each element by the element having maximum value in the matrix. Queuing Theory Arrival rate is A and mean service rate is denoted by p. * Kendall's notation:- (/b/c) : (d/e) robability law for the arrival time Probability law according to which the customers are being served. number of channels d_ = capacity of the system e = queue discipline. + Traffic Intensity( p) = Mean arrival rate/ Mean service rate = A/ p * Formulas of Queuing Theory 1. Expected number of customers in the system (Ls) = A/ (U- A) 2. Expected number of customers in the queue (Lq) = A*/U (lu A) 3. Expected waiting time for a customer in the queue(Wq) = A / ui (\! - A) 4. Expected waiting time for a customer in the system (Ws) = 1/ (u-A) 5. Probability that the queue is non-empty P(n>1) =(A/ p)? 6. Probability that the number of customers ,n in the system exceeds a given number, P(n>=k) (A/u)k 7. Expected length of non-empty queue = p / (1 - A). Sequencing and Scheduling Sequencing Johnson's Problem 1.2 machines and n jobs Step 1: Find the minimum among various ti: and tis. Step 2a : If the minimum processing time requires machine 1, place the associated job in the first available position in sequence. Go to Step 3. Step 2b | If the minimum processing time requires machine 2, place the associated job in the last available position in sequence. Go to Step 3 Step 3: Remove the assigned job from consideration and return to Step 1 until all positions in sequence are filled. 2.3 machines and n jobs two conditions of this approach ‘+ The smallest processing time on machine A is greater than or equal to the greatest processing time on machine B, i.e., Min. (AX) > Max. (Bi) + The smallest processing time on machine C is greater than or equal to the greatest processing time on machine B, i.e., Max. (Bi) < Min. (Ci) If either or both of the above conditions are satisfied, then we replace the three machines by two fictitious machines G & H with corresponding processing times given by Gi=A+ Bi H=B+G Where G, & Hi are the processing times for ith job on machine G and H respectively + Time study- Normal time = Observed time x Rating factor Standard time = Normal time + allowances