Rethinking Positive Thinking (2014) challenges the widespread belief that positive

thinking alone leads to success. It introduces a new approach called mental contrasting,

which combines optimistic dreaming with a clear-eyed view of obstacles, allowing people to

achieve their goals more effectively.

Introduction

What’s in it for me? Transform wishful thinking into results

Have you ever felt that positive visualization hasn’t changed your life as much as

you’d hoped? Have you ever wondered why those vision boards and affirmations haven’t

manifested your dreams? While our culture celebrates the power of positive thinking, two

decades of research reveal a surprising truth: fantasizing about success can actually hold you

back. In this Blink, we'll explore how, from weight loss to career advancement, positive

thinking can sometimes backfire. More importantly, you’ll discover a practical, research-

backed technique that harnesses both optimism and realism to achieve your goals. Whether

you’re trying to advance your career, improve your relationships, or make any meaningful

kind of change, you’ll learn why facing reality might be the most positive thing you can do.
 Chapter 1 of 5

The positive thinking trap

Dream big, they say. Visualize your best life; picture yourself crushing your goals;

imagine every detail of your future. Well, here’s a twist: twenty years of research suggests

this strategy might be exactly what’s holding us back. The evidence is both fascinating and a

bit unsettling. One study followed a group of women trying to lose weight. You might think

the ones who harnessed their imagination – who spent time visualizing themselves looking

slim – would be more motivated. Instead, they lost 24 pounds less than those who didn’t

indulge in these rosy visions. The same pattern showed up everywhere researchers looked. A

1988 study of job seekers found that those who frequently imagined themselves in their

dream positions ended up sending out fewer applications and landing lower-paying jobs. In

another study, college students who daydreamed about romantic connections were less likely

to actually ask someone out. What makes these and other study findings so compelling isn’t

just their consistency – it’s how carefully they were verified. When some researchers studied

effects on academic performance, they didn’t just ask students how they were doing; they

tracked actual grades. When they looked at recovery from hip surgery, they brought in

physical therapists who knew nothing about the study to measure patient progress. Time

after time, across months and years of follow-up, the pattern held: The more people indulged

in idealized visions of the future, the less they achieved in reality. Why? Think of it like

watching a movie trailer versus actually making a film. The trailer gives you some of the

emotional payoff – the excitement, the triumph, the satisfaction – without any of the grueling

work of production. Our brains, it seems, can fall for a similar trick. When we spend time

fantasizing about our goals, we get a little hit of pleasure – one that feels nice, but can

actually sap our drive to pursue our goals in real life. It’s not that optimism itself is bad – but

rather there’s a world of difference between pure fantasy and positive expectations based on
experience. When we let ourselves get lost in those perfect, polished daydreams, we can end

up undermining the very things we’re dreaming about.

Chapter 2 of 5

Economic costs of over-optimism

Want to predict an economic downturn? Skip the complex financial models and try

this: count how many times business leaders say everything’s going to be fine. The damage

done by positive thinking isn’t just personal – it ripples through our economy in ways that are

both surprising and measurable. When researchers analyzed financial news coverage during

the 2007–2009 crisis, they discovered something remarkable: The more positive language

appeared in USA Today's financial pages, the more likely the Dow Jones was to decline in

the following weeks. It’s like the market had a built-in irony detector. But it gets even more

interesting. The same researchers looked at presidential inaugural addresses going back to

1933, hunting for patterns between positive language and economic performance. The

correlation was clear, consistent … and negative! The more a president painted rosy pictures

of America’s economic future, the more likely his term was to see rising unemployment and

falling GDP. All those uplifting speeches might have made us feel better, but actually

foreshadowed tough times to come. This pattern plays out in the corporate world, too, where

consultants estimate that at least half of all change initiatives fail. While companies love to

blame poor communication or insufficient funding, there’s a deeper issue at play. Just like

individuals who daydream about weight loss instead of hitting the gym, organizations can get

caught up in the feel-good story of innovation while skipping the hard work of execution. It’s

one reason why so many start-ups fail in their first five years – they’re often better at

dreaming up the next big thing than doing the unglamorous work of building a sustainable

business.
 Chapter 3 of 5

Two kinds of positive thinking

The next time someone tells you to “think positive,” you might want to ask them to be

more specific. As it happens, not all positive thinking is created equal. When it comes to

optimism, we’ve actually been lumping two fundamentally different mental processes under

one label. The first is what psychologists call “positive expectations.” This is the kind of

optimism that comes from looking at your past successes and concluding, reasonably, that

you’ll succeed again. Think of a baseball player who’s been hitting .300 all season feeling

confident about their next time at-bat. That kind of optimism, grounded in experience,

actually does help people achieve their goals. But there’s also its seductive cousin: the free-

floating fantasy. This one is untethered from reality. It’s the D student picturing themselves

with straight A’s without considering the actual work of changing their habits, or the

entrepreneur daydreaming about a billion-dollar IPO without thinking through the countless

problems they’ll need to solve first. This is the kind of positive thinking that seems to short-

circuit our motivation. The psychology behind this distinction is fascinating. When we

engage in pure fantasy, our brains respond as if we’ve already achieved our goal, triggering

the same reward circuits that fire when we actually succeed. It feels good – and yet that’s the

problem. Instead of motivating us, these pleasant daydreams serve as a kind of mental

substitute for real achievement. They give us just enough emotional satisfaction to take the

edge off, while allowing us to avoid confronting the obstacles and challenges that stand

between us and our goals. It’s like our brains can’t tell the difference between visualizing

success and actually achieving it. The distinction between reality-based and fantasy positive

thinking matters. Why? Because Western culture, particularly in the US, has developed an

almost religious devotion to positive thinking. We paste inspirational quotes on office walls,

tell our kids they can be anything they dream of, and treat any hint of negative thinking as if
it’s contagious. Indeed, expressing doubt or concern can get you labeled as a “downer” or not

being a “team player.” This cult of optimism runs so deep that different attitudes can be

jarring. In many European countries, for instance, people think nothing of answering “How

are you?” with an honest account of their troubles. But in the United States, people are more

likely to habitually give a positive response, regardless of reality. The problem isn’t

optimism itself – it’s that we’ve stopped distinguishing between grounded confidence and

wishful thinking. Understanding this difference, and learning to recognize when we’re

slipping into unproductive fantasy, might be the first step toward actually achieving our goals

– instead of just dreaming about them.

Chapter 4 of 5

Turn up the contrast

So if simply daydreaming about success can backfire, how should we think about our

goals? The author has developed a technique that offers the benefits of optimism without its

pitfalls. It’s called Mental Contrasting. Unlike pure positive thinking, this approach

harnesses both our dreams and our sense of realism. Here’s how it works: First, choose a

specific goal that matters to you. It could be anything from improving a relationship to

advancing your career. Take a moment to write it down in three or four key words. Then, let

yourself fully explore the best possible outcome. What would success look like? How would

it feel? What would change in your life if you succeed? Give yourself permission to dream

vividly and freely. But here’s where Mental Contrasting differs from traditional visualization:

After imagining your ideal future, make a pivot; try to identify the main obstacle standing in

your way. What within you – not external circumstances – makes achieving this goal

challenging? Maybe it’s self-doubt, procrastination, or fear of conflict. The key is to be

honest about internal barriers – as opposed to solely external ones. Research shows this
combination is remarkably effective. When people use Mental Contrasting with achievable

goals, they become more energized and take more concrete actions toward success. But

equally important, when goals aren’t realistic, the technique helps people recognize this fact

and redirect their energy toward something more attainable. This selective effect is part of

what makes Mental Contrasting so useful. It’s not just about motivation, but about figuring

out which goals to pursue. The technique helps you to invest energy where it’s likely to pay

off, while disengaging from what might waste your time. The research is clear: people who

use Mental Contrasting take more action, make better plans, and ultimately achieve more

than those who either just fantasize or just dwell on obstacles.

Chapter 5 of 5

The WOOP technique

While Mental Contrasting has demonstrable power, there’s a way to make it even

more powerful. How? By bridging the gap between recognizing our obstacles and dealing

with them when they arise. We do this through an even more powerful technique: WOOP.

WOOP stands for Wish, Outcome, Obstacle, Plan – and it’s that final step that makes all the

difference. While the first three steps mirror Mental Contrasting, WOOP adds a crucial

element: creating specific “if-then” plans for when you encounter your obstacles. This

planning step turns insight into action. Here’s how to create effective if-then plans: Once

you’ve identified your internal obstacle, ask yourself, When and where is this obstacle most

likely to appear? Be specific. Then create a clear statement in this format: “If obstacle X

occurs, then I will take action Y.” For example, if your obstacle is procrastination, your plan

might be, “If I open my laptop and feel the urge to check social media instead of working,

then I will immediately close all browser tabs and set a 25-minute timer.” If anxiety is

holding you back, you might decide, “If I feel myself getting nervous before speaking up in
meetings, then I will take three deep breaths and remind myself that my perspective matters.”

The key is being precise about both the trigger (the “if”) and your response (the "then"). You

can also create plans to prevent obstacles: “If I sit down at my desk in the morning, then I

will turn off phone notifications.” Or you can plan to seize opportunities: “If I have a free

moment between meetings, then I will review my presentation notes.” These if-then plans are

deceptively powerful. They work by programming your brain to respond automatically when

obstacles arise, bypassing the need for in-the-moment willpower. While beginners might

need 15 to 20 minutes to work through the entire WOOP process, with practice you can do it

in just a few minutes. You can do it mentally during your morning coffee, write it down in a

journal, or use it right before facing a challenge. The key, however, is finding a quiet moment

to focus. This isn’t something to rush through while multitasking. Research shows that

combining Mental Contrasting with these implementation intentions creates results far

beyond using either technique alone. In one study, people trying to break unhealthy snacking

habits had significantly more success with WOOP than with either Mental Contrasting or

implementation intentions by themselves. The technique seems to create a powerful synergy:

Mental Contrasting helps you identify the right goals and obstacles, while the planning step

prepares you to overcome those obstacles when they actually appear.

Conclusion

Final summary

The main takeaway of this Blink to Rethinking Positive Thinking by Gabriele

Oettingen is that pure positive thinking isn’t enough to achieve success. Research shows that

indulging in idealized fantasies often reduces motivation and leads to worse outcomes.

Instead, try the WOOP technique: identify your Wish, visualize your Outcome, honestly

assess internal Obstacles, and create specific Plans to overcome them. This balanced
approach combines realistic optimism with foresight and practical action steps, helping you

reach your goals more effectively. It's not about abandoning optimism, but rather grounding it

in reality.

About the author

Gabriele Oettingen is a professor of psychology who holds dual appointments at New

York University and the University of Hamburg. Her research focuses on psychology and

behavioral science, focusing on how thoughts about the future influence human behavior.