INDIVIDUAL PROJECT FOR M-447
Dr. Young You
1 Detailed Description of Projects:
Until now, you have studied various modeling techniques such as discrete dynamical system and data fitting.
In this project, you will have opportunities how these techniques can be used in a real life setting. This
project consists of THREE problems as followings.
1. Predator-Prey Model
2. SIR Model
3. Curve-Fitting Problem
To complete the project, you should go to ”Individual Project” in this module. For these three problems,
you should upload the provided excel files by completing those.
1.1 Predator-Prey Model
In the study of the dynamics of a single population, we typically take into consideration such factors as the
“natural” growth rate and the ”carrying capacity” of the environment. Mathematical ecology requires the
study of populations that interact, thereby affecting each other’s growth rates. In this project we study a
very special case of such an interaction, in which there are exactly two species, one of which – the predators
– eats the other – the prey. Such pairs exist throughout nature. In this project, we consider foxes and rabbits.
To keep the model simple and reasonable, we use the following assumptions:
1. Foxes are totally dependent on Rabbits as its only food supply.
2. Rabbits have an unlimited food supply and no threat to its growth other than the foxes.
3. Without rabbits present, foxes would die out.
4. Without foxes present, the population would grow.
5. A fixed proportion of encounters leads to the death of the rabbits and to the growth of the foxes .
Before creating the model, let us define some variables. Let xn be the size of rabbit at the end of month
n and yn be the size of fox population at the end of month n. Now, the assumption 3 deals with the rate of
change of foxes in the absence of rabbits. In our notation, this yields
∆yn = yn+1 − yn = −ayn for some constant 0 < a ≤ 1 (1)
In the similar way, assumption 4 yields
∆xn = xn+1 − xn = bxn for some constant 0 < b ≤ 1 (2)
1
Furthermore, we refine the above models as incorporating assumption 5 which describes the case of
encounter between foxes and rabbits. Since the encounter leads the death of rabbits, (2) is refined as
∆xn = xn+1 − xn = bxn − cxn yn for some constant 0 < b ≤ 1 and c ≥ 0. (3)
In the similar way, for the size of fox population, we have
∆yn = yn+1 − yn = −ayn + dxn yn for some constant 0 < a ≤ 1 and d ≥ 0. (4)
Finally, we rewrite equations (3) and (4), we obtain
xn+1 = (1 + b)xn − cxn yn (5)
yn+1 = (1 − a)yn + dxn yn (6)
This type of Predator-Prey model is called Lotka-Volterra model.
1.2 SIR Model - Read Textbook p.50-Example 5
1.3 Curve Fitting - See the Excel File in “Individual Project”
