Model of Reliance Industries 1731242847
Model of Reliance Industries 1731242847
MODELING REPORT
A Comprehensive DCF and Comparable
Comps Valuation
Ratios & Assumptions 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 2024A 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F 2029F 2030F 2031F 2032F 2033F 2034F
1
LIVE SCENARIO Bull Case Units
Revenue Growth % -20.6% 47.6% 24.2% 2.6% 13.4% 12.1% 10.9% 9.8% 8.8% 7.9% 7.1% 6.4% 5.8% 5.2%
Cost of Goods Sold (% of Revenue) % 66.2% 60.2% 65.9% 66.0% 64.0% 64.5% 64.5% 64.5% 64.5% 64.5% 64.5% 64.5% 64.5% 64.5% 64.5%
Salaries and benefits (% of Revenue) % 2.3% 3.0% 2.6% 2.8% 2.8% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7%
Other SG&A Expenses (% of Revenue) % 17.0% 20.2% 16.4% 15.2% 15.4% 16.8% 16.8% 16.8% 16.8% 16.8% 16.8% 16.8% 16.8% 16.8% 16.8%
Depreciation & Amortization Expenses (% of PP&E) % 5.4% 5.7% 7.1% 7.4% 6.4% 6.4% 6.4% 6.4% 6.4% 6.4% 6.4% 6.4% 6.4% 6.4%
Interest (% of Debt) % 7.3% 6.5% 6.9% 6.9% 6.9% 6.9% 6.9% 6.9% 6.9% 6.9% 6.9% 6.9% 6.9% 6.9%
Other Income (Expenses) (% of Revenue) % 2.2% 3.5% 2.1% 1.3% 1.8% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2%
Tax Rate (% of Earnings before Tax) % 23.6% 3.5% 20.1% 21.7% 24.5% 18.7% 18.7% 18.7% 18.7% 18.7% 18.7% 18.7% 18.7% 18.7% 18.7%
Exceptional Items(% Revenue) % -0.7% 1.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Dividends Payout % 11.5% 7.3% 6.5% 6.9% 7.7% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0%
Accounts Receivable Days 11.7 14.3 12.0 11.6 12.6 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5
Inventory Days 66.6 101.8 83.2 86.8 95.3 86.7 86.7 86.7 86.7 86.7 86.7 86.7 86.7 86.7 86.7
Accounts Payable Days 87.2 135.8 123.0 91.3 111.2 109.7 109.7 109.7 109.7 109.7 109.7 109.7 109.7 109.7 109.7
Capital Asset Turnover Ratio Times 1.2x 0.9x 1.3x 1.3x 1.2x 1.3x 1.4x 1.5x 1.6x 1.7x 1.8x 1.9x 2.0x 2.1x 2.2x
Income Statement 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 2024A 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F 2029F 2030F 2031F 2032F 2033F 2034F
INCOME
Revenue ₹ 6,12,437.0 ₹ 4,86,326.0 ₹ 7,17,635.0 ₹ 8,91,311.0 ₹ 9,14,472.0 ₹ 10,37,401.2 ₹ 11,62,909.9 ₹ 12,89,533.8 ₹ 14,15,904.0 ₹ 15,40,782.8 ₹ 16,63,086.2 ₹ 17,81,896.6 ₹ 18,96,464.9 ₹ 20,06,206.1 ₹ 21,10,688.4
Cost of Good Sold (COGS) ₹ 4,05,240.0 ₹ 2,92,701.0 ₹ 4,72,992.0 ₹ 5,88,483.0 ₹ 5,85,343.0 ₹ 6,68,704.1 ₹ 7,49,606.4 ₹ 8,31,227.6 ₹ 9,12,685.3 ₹ 9,93,181.5 ₹ 10,72,017.8 ₹ 11,48,602.4 ₹ 12,22,452.6 ₹ 12,93,191.3 ₹ 13,60,540.1
Gross Profit ₹ 2,07,197.0 ₹ 1,93,625.0 ₹ 2,44,643.0 ₹ 3,02,828.0 ₹ 3,29,129.0 ₹ 3,68,697.1 ₹ 4,13,303.5 ₹ 4,58,306.2 ₹ 5,03,218.8 ₹ 5,47,601.2 ₹ 5,91,068.4 ₹ 6,33,294.2 ₹ 6,74,012.3 ₹ 7,13,014.8 ₹ 7,50,148.3
EXPENSES
Salaries and benefits ₹ 14,075.0 ₹ 14,817.0 ₹ 18,758.0 ₹ 24,872.0 ₹ 25,679.0 ₹ 28,128.8 ₹ 31,531.9 ₹ 34,965.3 ₹ 38,391.8 ₹ 41,777.8 ₹ 45,094.1 ₹ 48,315.6 ₹ 51,422.1 ₹ 54,397.7 ₹ 57,230.7
Other SG&A Expenses ₹ 1,04,113.0 ₹ 98,071.0 ₹ 1,17,439.0 ₹ 1,35,794.0 ₹ 1,41,217.0 ₹ 1,74,714.9 ₹ 1,95,852.6 ₹ 2,17,178.1 ₹ 2,38,460.8 ₹ 2,59,492.4 ₹ 2,80,090.3 ₹ 3,00,099.8 ₹ 3,19,395.0 ₹ 3,37,877.1 ₹ 3,55,473.6
EBITDA ₹ 89,009.0 ₹ 80,737.0 ₹ 1,08,446.0 ₹ 1,42,162.0 ₹ 1,62,233.0 ₹ 1,65,853.4 ₹ 1,85,919.0 ₹ 2,06,162.8 ₹ 2,26,366.1 ₹ 2,46,331.0 ₹ 2,65,884.1 ₹ 2,84,878.8 ₹ 3,03,195.3 ₹ 3,20,740.0 ₹ 3,37,444.0
Depreciation & Amortization Expenses ₹ 22,203.0 ₹ 26,572.0 ₹ 29,782.0 ₹ 40,303.0 ₹ 50,832.0 ₹ 48,448.7 ₹ 51,367.9 ₹ 53,790.1 ₹ 55,726.0 ₹ 57,193.6 ₹ 58,216.9 ₹ 58,824.7 ₹ 59,049.6 ₹ 58,926.5 ₹ 58,491.5
EBIT ₹ 66,806.0 ₹ 54,165.0 ₹ 78,664.0 ₹ 1,01,859.0 ₹ 1,11,401.0 ₹ 1,17,404.7 ₹ 1,34,551.0 ₹ 1,52,372.8 ₹ 1,70,640.1 ₹ 1,89,137.4 ₹ 2,07,667.2 ₹ 2,26,054.1 ₹ 2,44,145.7 ₹ 2,61,813.6 ₹ 2,78,952.6
Interest ₹ 22,027.0 ₹ 21,189.0 ₹ 14,584.0 ₹ 19,571.0 ₹ 23,118.0 ₹ 23,920.8 ₹ 23,920.8 ₹ 23,920.8 ₹ 23,920.8 ₹ 23,920.8 ₹ 23,920.8 ₹ 23,920.8 ₹ 23,920.8 ₹ 23,920.8 ₹ 23,920.8
Other Income (Expenses) ₹ 13,271.0 ₹ 16,843.0 ₹ 15,238.0 ₹ 11,758.0 ₹ 16,444.0 ₹ 1,74,714.9 ₹ 1,95,852.6 ₹ 2,17,178.1 ₹ 2,38,460.8 ₹ 2,59,492.4 ₹ 2,80,090.3 ₹ 3,00,099.8 ₹ 3,19,395.0 ₹ 3,37,877.1 ₹ 3,55,473.6
Earnings before Tax ₹ 58,050.0 ₹ 49,819.0 ₹ 79,318.0 ₹ 94,046.0 ₹ 1,04,727.0 ₹ 2,68,198.8 ₹ 3,06,482.8 ₹ 3,45,630.0 ₹ 3,85,180.2 ₹ 4,24,709.0 ₹ 4,63,836.7 ₹ 5,02,233.1 ₹ 5,39,619.8 ₹ 5,75,769.9 ₹ 6,10,505.4
Taxes ₹ 13,726.0 ₹ 1,722.0 ₹ 15,970.0 ₹ 20,376.0 ₹ 25,707.0 ₹ 50,125.5 ₹ 57,280.7 ₹ 64,597.2 ₹ 71,989.0 ₹ 79,376.8 ₹ 86,689.6 ₹ 93,865.8 ₹ 1,00,853.3 ₹ 1,07,609.6 ₹ 1,14,101.6
Exceptional Items ₹ (4,444.0) ₹ 5,642.0 ₹ 2,836.0 - - ₹ 1,721.4 ₹ 1,929.7 ₹ 2,139.8 ₹ 2,349.5 ₹ 2,556.7 ₹ 2,759.7 ₹ 2,956.8 ₹ 3,147.0 ₹ 3,329.1 ₹ 3,502.4
Net Earnings ₹ 39,880.0 ₹ 53,739.0 ₹ 66,184.0 ₹ 73,670.0 ₹ 79,020.0 ₹ 2,19,794.7 ₹ 2,51,131.8 ₹ 2,83,172.7 ₹ 3,15,540.7 ₹ 3,47,888.9 ₹ 3,79,906.7 ₹ 4,11,324.1 ₹ 4,41,913.5 ₹ 4,71,489.3 ₹ 4,99,906.2
check - - - - -
Balance Sheet 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 2024A 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F 2029F 2030F 2031F 2032F 2033F 2034F
Assets
Current Assets:
Cash ₹ 30,920.0 ₹ 17,397.0 ₹ 36,178.0 ₹ 68,664.0 ₹ 97,225.0 ₹ 2,66,444.6 ₹ 4,60,417.4 ₹ 6,91,492.3 ₹ 9,59,681.4 ₹ 12,64,583.3 ₹ 16,05,435.0 ₹ 19,81,169.1 ₹ 23,90,472.2 ₹ 28,31,841.5 ₹ 33,03,637.9
Bank Deposits - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Accounts Receivable ₹ 19,656.0 ₹ 19,014.0 ₹ 23,640.0 ₹ 28,448.0 ₹ 31,628.0 ₹ 35,403.7 ₹ 39,687.0 ₹ 44,008.3 ₹ 48,321.0 ₹ 52,582.8 ₹ 56,756.7 ₹ 60,811.4 ₹ 64,721.3 ₹ 68,466.4 ₹ 72,032.1
Inventory ₹ 73,903.0 ₹ 81,672.0 ₹ 1,07,778.0 ₹ 1,40,008.0 ₹ 1,52,770.0 ₹ 1,58,906.5 ₹ 1,78,131.6 ₹ 1,97,527.5 ₹ 2,16,884.6 ₹ 2,36,013.2 ₹ 2,54,747.3 ₹ 2,72,946.3 ₹ 2,90,495.6 ₹ 3,07,305.5 ₹ 3,23,309.8
Other Current Assets ₹ 1,33,781.0 ₹ 2,54,928.0 ₹ 1,79,423.0 ₹ 1,88,176.0 ₹ 1,88,477.0 ₹ 1,88,477.0 ₹ 1,88,477.0 ₹ 1,88,477.0 ₹ 1,88,477.0 ₹ 1,88,477.0 ₹ 1,88,477.0 ₹ 1,88,477.0 ₹ 1,88,477.0 ₹ 1,88,477.0 ₹ 1,88,477.0
Non-Current Assets:
Property & Equipment ₹ 4,95,016.0 ₹ 5,22,237.0 ₹ 5,68,506.0 ₹ 6,87,762.0 ₹ 7,58,466.0 ₹ 8,04,166.4 ₹ 8,42,084.9 ₹ 8,72,392.0 ₹ 8,95,367.7 ₹ 9,11,387.3 ₹ 9,20,902.8 ₹ 9,24,423.2 ₹ 9,22,495.4 ₹ 9,15,685.5 ₹ 9,04,563.6
Goodwill ₹ 10,259.0 ₹ 10,212.0 ₹ 13,009.0 ₹ 15,270.0 ₹ 14,989.0 ₹ 14,989.0 ₹ 14,989.0 ₹ 14,989.0 ₹ 14,989.0 ₹ 14,989.0 ₹ 14,989.0 ₹ 14,989.0 ₹ 14,989.0 ₹ 14,989.0 ₹ 14,989.0
Financial Assets ₹ 3,64,973.0 ₹ 3,50,775.0 ₹ 5,09,943.0 ₹ 4,38,209.0 ₹ 4,69,346.0 ₹ 4,69,346.0 ₹ 4,69,346.0 ₹ 4,69,346.0 ₹ 4,69,346.0 ₹ 4,69,346.0 ₹ 4,69,346.0 ₹ 4,69,346.0 ₹ 4,69,346.0 ₹ 4,69,346.0 ₹ 4,69,346.0
Other Non-Current Assets ₹ 37,407.0 ₹ 64,977.0 ₹ 61,188.0 ₹ 40,894.0 ₹ 43,085.0 ₹ 43,085.0 ₹ 43,085.0 ₹ 43,085.0 ₹ 43,085.0 ₹ 43,085.0 ₹ 43,085.0 ₹ 43,085.0 ₹ 43,085.0 ₹ 43,085.0 ₹ 43,085.0
Total Assets ₹ 11,65,915.0 ₹ 13,21,212.0 ₹ 14,99,665.0 ₹ 16,07,431.0 ₹ 17,55,986.0 ₹ 19,80,818.1 ₹ 22,36,217.9 ₹ 25,21,317.1 ₹ 28,36,151.6 ₹ 31,80,463.5 ₹ 35,53,738.7 ₹ 39,55,247.1 ₹ 43,84,081.5 ₹ 48,39,196.0 ₹ 53,19,440.5
Liabilities
Current Liabilities:
Accounts Payable ₹ 96,799.0 ₹ 1,08,897.0 ₹ 1,59,330.0 ₹ 1,47,172.0 ₹ 1,78,377.0 ₹ 2,00,957.9 ₹ 2,25,270.5 ₹ 2,49,799.2 ₹ 2,74,278.7 ₹ 2,98,469.3 ₹ 3,22,161.1 ₹ 3,45,176.2 ₹ 3,67,369.5 ₹ 3,88,627.8 ₹ 4,08,867.3
Other Current Liability ₹ 2,22,331.0 ₹ 1,08,590.0 ₹ 68,064.0 ₹ 1,13,585.0 ₹ 1,12,975.0 ₹ 1,12,975.0 ₹ 1,12,975.0 ₹ 1,12,975.0 ₹ 1,12,975.0 ₹ 1,12,975.0 ₹ 1,12,975.0 ₹ 1,12,975.0 ₹ 1,12,975.0 ₹ 1,12,975.0 ₹ 1,12,975.0
Non-Current Liabilities:
Debt ₹ 2,91,417.0 ₹ 2,23,764.0 ₹ 2,81,974.0 ₹ 3,34,392.0 ₹ 3,46,142.0 ₹ 3,46,142.0 ₹ 3,46,142.0 ₹ 3,46,142.0 ₹ 3,46,142.0 ₹ 3,46,142.0 ₹ 3,46,142.0 ₹ 3,46,142.0 ₹ 3,46,142.0 ₹ 3,46,142.0 ₹ 3,46,142.0
Other Non-Current Liability ₹ 94,021.0 ₹ 80,529.0 ₹ 1,01,313.0 ₹ 1,83,401.0 ₹ 1,92,704.0 ₹ 1,92,704.0 ₹ 1,92,704.0 ₹ 1,92,704.0 ₹ 1,92,704.0 ₹ 1,92,704.0 ₹ 1,92,704.0 ₹ 1,92,704.0 ₹ 1,92,704.0 ₹ 1,92,704.0 ₹ 1,92,704.0
Total Liabilities ₹ 7,04,568.0 ₹ 5,21,780.0 ₹ 6,10,681.0 ₹ 7,78,550.0 ₹ 8,30,198.0 ₹ 8,52,778.9 ₹ 8,77,091.5 ₹ 9,01,620.2 ₹ 9,26,099.7 ₹ 9,50,290.3 ₹ 9,73,982.1 ₹ 9,96,997.2 ₹ 10,19,190.5 ₹ 10,40,448.8 ₹ 10,60,688.3
Shareholder's Equity
Equity Capital ₹ 6,339.0 ₹ 6,445.0 ₹ 6,765.0 ₹ 6,766.0 ₹ 6,766.0 ₹ 6,766.0 ₹ 6,766.0 ₹ 6,766.0 ₹ 6,766.0 ₹ 6,766.0 ₹ 6,766.0 ₹ 6,766.0 ₹ 6,766.0 ₹ 6,766.0 ₹ 6,766.0
Retained Earnings ₹ 4,42,827.0 ₹ 6,93,727.0 ₹ 7,72,720.0 ₹ 7,09,106.0 ₹ 7,86,715.0 ₹ 9,88,966.2 ₹ 12,20,053.3 ₹ 14,80,623.9 ₹ 17,70,978.9 ₹ 20,91,100.2 ₹ 24,40,683.7 ₹ 28,19,176.9 ₹ 32,25,818.0 ₹ 36,59,674.2 ₹ 41,19,679.1
Shareholder's Equity ₹ 4,49,166.0 ₹ 7,00,172.0 ₹ 7,79,485.0 ₹ 7,15,872.0 ₹ 7,93,481.0 ₹ 9,95,732.2 ₹ 12,26,819.3 ₹ 14,87,389.9 ₹ 17,77,744.9 ₹ 20,97,866.2 ₹ 24,47,449.7 ₹ 28,25,942.9 ₹ 32,32,584.0 ₹ 36,66,440.2 ₹ 41,26,445.1
Non-Controlling Interest ₹ 12,181.0 ₹ 99,260.0 ₹ 1,09,499.0 ₹ 1,13,009.0 ₹ 1,32,307.0 ₹ 1,32,307.0 ₹ 1,32,307.0 ₹ 1,32,307.0 ₹ 1,32,307.0 ₹ 1,32,307.0 ₹ 1,32,307.0 ₹ 1,32,307.0 ₹ 1,32,307.0 ₹ 1,32,307.0 ₹ 1,32,307.0
Total Liabilities & Shareholder's Equity ₹ 11,65,915.0 ₹ 13,21,212.0 ₹ 14,99,665.0 ₹ 16,07,431.0 ₹ 17,55,986.0 ₹ 19,80,818.1 ₹ 22,36,217.9 ₹ 25,21,317.1 ₹ 28,36,151.6 ₹ 31,80,463.5 ₹ 35,53,738.7 ₹ 39,55,247.1 ₹ 43,84,081.5 ₹ 48,39,196.0 ₹ 53,19,440.5
Chech - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Cash Flow Statement 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 2024A 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F 2029F 2030F 2031F 2032F 2033F 2034F
Net Increase (decrease) in Cash ₹ 19,816.0 ₹ (13,547.0) ₹ 17,840.0 ₹ 34,252.0 ₹ 27,841.0 ₹ 1,69,219.6 ₹ 1,93,972.9 ₹ 2,31,074.9 ₹ 2,68,189.1 ₹ 3,04,901.9 ₹ 3,40,851.7 ₹ 3,75,734.1 ₹ 4,09,303.0 ₹ 4,41,369.3 ₹ 4,71,796.4
Opening Cash Balance ₹ 11,104.0 ₹ 30,944.0 ₹ 18,338.0 ₹ 34,412.0 ₹ 69,384.0 ₹ 97,225.0 ₹ 2,66,444.6 ₹ 4,60,417.4 ₹ 6,91,492.3 ₹ 9,59,681.4 ₹ 12,64,583.3 ₹ 16,05,435.0 ₹ 19,81,169.1 ₹ 23,90,472.2 ₹ 28,31,841.5
Closing Cash Balance ₹ 30,920.0 ₹ 17,397.0 ₹ 36,178.0 ₹ 68,664.0 ₹ 97,225.0 ₹ 2,66,444.6 ₹ 4,60,417.4 ₹ 6,91,492.3 ₹ 9,59,681.4 ₹ 12,64,583.3 ₹ 16,05,435.0 ₹ 19,81,169.1 ₹ 23,90,472.2 ₹ 28,31,841.5 ₹ 33,03,637.9
Supporting Schedules 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 2024A 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F 2029F 2030F 2031F 2032F 2033F 2034F
Working Capital
Accounts Receivable ₹ (13,792.0) ₹ 186.0 ₹ (14,180.0) ₹ 13,194.0 ₹ (15,674.0) ₹ (3,775.7) ₹ (4,283.3) ₹ (4,321.3) ₹ (4,312.7) ₹ (4,261.8) ₹ (4,173.9) ₹ (4,054.7) ₹ (3,909.9) ₹ (3,745.2) ₹ (3,565.7)
Inventory ₹ (6,342.0) ₹ (7,769.0) ₹ (24,983.0) ₹ (32,228.0) ₹ (12,756.0) ₹ (6,136.5) ₹ (19,225.1) ₹ (19,395.9) ₹ (19,357.1) ₹ (19,128.6) ₹ (18,734.1) ₹ (18,199.1) ₹ (17,549.3) ₹ (16,809.9) ₹ (16,004.3)
Accounts Payable ₹ 38,050.0 ₹ (43,148.0) ₹ 39,888.0 ₹ (600.0) ₹ 34,796.0 ₹ 22,580.9 ₹ 24,312.6 ₹ 24,528.7 ₹ 24,479.5 ₹ 24,190.6 ₹ 23,691.7 ₹ 23,015.1 ₹ 22,193.4 ₹ 21,258.3 ₹ 20,239.6
Others - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Total ₹ 17,916.0 ₹ (50,731.0) ₹ 725.0 ₹ (19,634.0) ₹ 6,366.0 ₹ 12,668.7 ₹ 804.3 ₹ 811.4 ₹ 809.8 ₹ 800.2 ₹ 783.7 ₹ 761.3 ₹ 734.2 ₹ 703.2 ₹ 669.5
Depreciation Schedule
PPE Opening - ₹ 4,95,016.0 ₹ 5,22,237.0 ₹ 5,68,506.0 ₹ 6,87,762.0 ₹ 7,58,466.0 ₹ 8,04,166.4 ₹ 8,42,084.9 ₹ 8,72,392.0 ₹ 8,95,367.7 ₹ 9,11,387.3 ₹ 9,20,902.8 ₹ 9,24,423.2 ₹ 9,22,495.4 ₹ 9,15,685.5
Plus Capex - ₹ 53,793.0 ₹ 76,066.0 ₹ 1,59,575.0 ₹ 1,21,536.0 ₹ 94,149.1 ₹ 89,286.4 ₹ 84,097.1 ₹ 78,701.7 ₹ 73,213.2 ₹ 67,732.4 ₹ 62,345.2 ₹ 57,121.8 ₹ 52,116.6 ₹ 47,369.5
Less Depreciation ₹ (22,203.0) ₹ (26,572.0) ₹ (29,797.0) ₹ (40,319.0) ₹ (50,832.0) ₹ (48,448.7) ₹ (51,367.9) ₹ (53,790.1) ₹ (55,726.0) ₹ (57,193.6) ₹ (58,216.9) ₹ (58,824.7) ₹ (59,049.6) ₹ (58,926.5) ₹ (58,491.5)
PPE Closing ₹ 4,95,016.0 ₹ 5,22,237.0 ₹ 5,68,506.0 ₹ 6,87,762.0 ₹ 7,58,466.0 ₹ 8,04,166.4 ₹ 8,42,084.9 ₹ 8,72,392.0 ₹ 8,95,367.7 ₹ 9,11,387.3 ₹ 9,20,902.8 ₹ 9,24,423.2 ₹ 9,22,495.4 ₹ 9,15,685.5 ₹ 9,04,563.6
DCF Model
Assumptions
Transaction Date 23-10-2024
Fiscal Year End 31-03-2025
Tax Rate 24.09%
EV/EBITDA Multiple 7.96x
Perpetual Growth Rate 5.5%
Discount Rate 14.5%
Shares Outstanding 677
Current Price 2683.0
Discounted Cash Flow Entry 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F 2029F 2030F 2031F 2032F 2033F 2034F EXIT Terminal Value
Date 10/23/2024 3/31/2025 3/31/2026 3/31/2027 3/30/2028 3/30/2029 3/30/2030 3/30/2031 3/29/2032 3/29/2033 3/29/2034 3/29/2034 EV/ EBITDA ₹ 26,85,046.1
YearFrac 0 43.89% 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 Per. Growth ₹ 41,85,467.9
EBIT - ₹ 1,17,404.7 ₹ 1,34,551.0 ₹ 1,52,372.8 ₹ 1,70,640.1 ₹ 1,89,137.4 ₹ 2,07,667.2 ₹ 2,26,054.1 ₹ 2,44,145.7 ₹ 2,61,813.6 ₹ 2,78,952.6 Average ₹ 34,35,257.0
Less: Cash Taxes ₹ 28,282.8 ₹ 32,413.3 ₹ 36,706.6 ₹ 41,107.2 ₹ 45,563.2 ₹ 50,027.0 ₹ 54,456.4 ₹ 58,814.7 ₹ 63,070.9 ₹ 67,199.7
NOPAT ₹ 1,45,687.5 ₹ 1,66,964.4 ₹ 1,89,079.4 ₹ 2,11,747.3 ₹ 2,34,700.6 ₹ 2,57,694.2 ₹ 2,80,510.5 ₹ 3,02,960.4 ₹ 3,24,884.4 ₹ 3,46,152.2
Plus: Depritiation ₹ 48,448.7 ₹ 51,367.9 ₹ 53,790.1 ₹ 55,726.0 ₹ 57,193.6 ₹ 58,216.9 ₹ 58,824.7 ₹ 59,049.6 ₹ 58,926.5 ₹ 58,491.5
Less: Capex ₹ (94,149.1) ₹ (89,286.4) ₹ (84,097.1) ₹ (78,701.7) ₹ (73,213.2) ₹ (67,732.4) ₹ (62,345.2) ₹ (57,121.8) ₹ (52,116.6) ₹ (47,369.5)
Less: Change in NWC ₹ (12,668.7) ₹ (804.3) ₹ (811.4) ₹ (809.8) ₹ (800.2) ₹ (783.7) ₹ (761.3) ₹ (734.2) ₹ (703.2) ₹ (669.5)
Unlevered FCFF ₹ 87,318.4 ₹ 1,28,241.6 ₹ 1,57,960.9 ₹ 1,87,961.8 ₹ 2,17,880.7 ₹ 2,47,395.0 ₹ 2,76,228.7 ₹ 3,04,154.0 ₹ 3,30,991.1 ₹ 3,56,604.6 ₹ 34,35,257.0
Transaction FCFF - ₹ 38,323.1 ₹ 1,28,241.6 ₹ 1,57,960.9 ₹ 1,87,961.8 ₹ 2,17,880.7 ₹ 2,47,395.0 ₹ 2,76,228.7 ₹ 3,03,309.2 ₹ 3,30,991.1 ₹ 3,56,604.6 ₹ 34,35,257.0
Sensitivity Analysis
Sensitivity- Intrinsic Values (Rs./ Share) Sensitivity- Intrinsic Values (Rs./ Share)
Discount Rate
13.0% 2752.01 2830.71 2830.71 2988.09 3066.79 13.0% 2282.60 2283.00 2284.18 2284.96 2285.75
14.5% 2752.01 2830.71 2830.71 2988.09 3066.79 14.5% 2282.60 2283.00 2284.18 2284.96 2285.75
16.0% 1921.05 1982.50 1982.50 2105.42 2166.87 16.0% 1554.46 1554.77 1555.69 1556.30 1556.92
17.0% 1727.80 1784.48 1784.48 1897.83 1954.51 17.0% 1389.74 1390.02 1390.87 1391.44 1392.00
Reliance
Industries Ltd.
Comps Valuation
IOCL ₹ 154.00 1412.12 ₹ 2,17,466.48 ₹ 1,32,627.56 ₹ 3,158.79 ₹ 3,46,935.25 ₹ 7,71,645.99 ₹ 67,333.14 ₹ 32,148.48 0.45x 5.15x 10.79x
BPCL ₹ 324.00 433.85 ₹ 1,40,567.40 ₹ 54,599.05 ₹ 6,286.36 ₹ 1,88,880.09 ₹ 4,48,193.16 ₹ 37,135.29 ₹ 19,056.09 0.42x 5.09x 9.91x
HPCL ₹ 398.95 212.78 ₹ 84,888.58 ₹ 66,683.82 ₹ 473.43 ₹ 1,51,098.97 ₹ 4,35,665.63 ₹ 20,729.96 ₹ 9,883.05 0.35x 7.29x 15.29x
MRPL ₹ 153.00 212.78 ₹ 32,555.34 ₹ 13,533.13 ₹ 38.61 ₹ 46,049.86 ₹ 98,210.64 ₹ 3,804.09 ₹ 906.86 0.47x 12.11x 50.78x
CPCL ₹ 784.00 14.89 ₹ 11,673.76 ₹ 6,113.70 ₹ 94.25 ₹ 17,693.21 ₹ 64,277.60 ₹ 1,742.83 ₹ 685.48 0.28x 10.15x 25.81x
Reliance Industr ₹ 2,684.00 676.60 ₹ 18,15,994.40 ₹ 3,57,525.00 ₹ 97,225.00 ₹ 20,76,294.40 ₹ 9,24,938.00 ₹ 1,78,410.00 ₹ 77,652.00 2.24x 11.64x 26.74x
WACC Calculation
WACC 14.5%
Reliance Industries Ltd.
Companies Beta
Index Stock
Close % Change Close % Change
Date Price Monthly Price Monthly
Min 2288.55
Oct-19 40129.05 1464.2
Nov-19 40793.81 1.7% 1550.9 5.9% Max 3131.9
Dec-19 41253.74 1.1% 1514.1 -2.4%
Jan-20 40723.49 -1.3% 1411.7 -6.8% Beta 1.00
Feb-20 38297.29 -6.0% 1328.65 -5.9%
Mar-20 29468.49 -23.1% 1112.45 -16.3%
Apr-20 33717.62 14.4% 1467.05 31.9%
May-20 32424.1 -3.8% 1465.2 -0.1%
Jun-20 34915.8 7.7% 1703.35 16.3%
Jul-20 37606.89 7.7% 2066.95 21.3%
Aug-20 38628.29 2.7% 2078.55 0.6%
Sep-20 38067.93 -1.5% 2233.75 7.5%
Oct-20 39614.07 4.1% 2054.35 -8.0%
Nov-20 44149.72 11.4% 1929.85 -6.1%
Dec-20 47751.33 8.2% 1984.65 2.8%
Jan-21 46285.77 -3.1% 1843.15 -7.1%
Feb-21 49099.99 6.1% 2083.85 13.1%
Mar-21 49509.15 0.8% 2003.2 -3.9%
Apr-21 48782.36 -1.5% 1994.45 -0.4%
May-21 51937.44 6.5% 2160.45 8.3%
Jun-21 52482.71 1.0% 2110.9 -2.3%
Jul-21 52586.84 0.2% 2035.4 -3.6%
Aug-21 57552.39 9.4% 2259.3 11.0%
Sep-21 59126.36 2.7% 2517 11.4%
Oct-21 59306.93 0.3% 2537.6 0.8%
Nov-21 57064.87 -3.8% 2406.75 -5.2%
Dec-21 58253.82 2.1% 2368.15 -1.6%
Jan-22 58014.17 -0.4% 2386.35 0.8%
Feb-22 56247.28 -3.0% 2359.1 -1.1%
Mar-22 58568.51 4.1% 2633.95 11.7%
Apr-22 57060.87 -2.6% 2790.8 6.0%
May-22 55566.41 -2.6% 2633.9 -5.6%
Jun-22 53018.94 -4.6% 2594.05 -1.5%
Jul-22 57570.25 8.6% 2508.75 -3.3%
Aug-22 59537.07 3.4% 2639.1 5.2%
Sep-22 57426.92 -3.5% 2377.7 -9.9%
Oct-22 60746.59 5.8% 2549.55 7.2%
Nov-22 63099.65 3.9% 2732.4 7.2%
Dec-22 60840.74 -3.6% 2548.2 -6.7%
Jan-23 59549.9 -2.1% 2353.9 -7.6%
Feb-23 58962.12 -1.0% 2321.95 -1.4%
Mar-23 58991.52 0.0% 2331.05 0.4%
Apr-23 61112.44 3.6% 2420.2 3.8%
Reliance Industries Ltd.
Ratio Analysis
Particulars 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 2024A 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F 2029F 2030F 2031F 2032F 2033F 2034F Trend
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 33.8% 39.8% 34.1% 34.0% 36.0% 35.5% 35.5% 35.5% 35.5% 35.5% 35.5% 35.5% 35.5% 35.5% 35.5%
EBITDA Margin 14.5% 16.6% 15.1% 15.9% 17.7% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0%
Operating Margin 10.9% 11.1% 11.0% 11.4% 12.2% 11.3% 11.6% 11.8% 12.1% 12.3% 12.5% 12.7% 12.9% 13.1% 13.2%
Pretax Margin 9.5% 10.2% 11.1% 10.6% 11.5% 25.9% 26.4% 26.8% 27.2% 27.6% 27.9% 28.2% 28.5% 28.7% 28.9%
Effective Tax rate 23.6% 3.5% 20.1% 21.7% 24.5% 18.7% 18.7% 18.7% 18.7% 18.7% 18.7% 18.7% 18.7% 18.7% 18.7%
Net Margin 6.5% 11.0% 9.2% 8.3% 8.6% 21.2% 21.6% 22.0% 22.3% 22.6% 22.8% 23.1% 23.3% 23.5% 23.7%
DuPont/Earning Power
Asset Turnover 39.1% 50.9% 57.4% 54.4% 55.5% 55.2% 54.2% 52.9% 51.2% 49.4% 47.5% 45.5% 43.5% 41.6%
Pre tax ROA 4.0% 5.6% 6.1% 6.2% 14.4% 14.5% 14.5% 14.4% 14.1% 13.8% 13.4% 12.9% 12.5% 12.0%
Pre Tax ROE 4.0% 4.7% 5.5% 6.0% 13.1% 12.3% 11.6% 10.9% 10.3% 9.6% 9.1% 8.5% 8.0% 7.6%
Tax Complement 0.69 1.08 0.83 0.78 0.75 0.82 0.82 0.82 0.82 0.82 0.82 0.82 0.82 0.82 0.82
ROE 4.3% 3.9% 4.3% 4.5% 10.7% 10.1% 9.5% 8.9% 8.4% 7.9% 7.4% 7.0% 6.6% 6.2%
Equity Retention 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
Reinvestment Rate 4.2% 3.7% 3.7% 4.5% 8.2% 7.6% 7.1% 6.6% 6.1% 5.7% 5.4% 5.0% 4.7% 4.4%
Liquidity Ratio
Quick ratio 0.58 1.34 1.05 1.09 1.09 1.56 2.04 2.55 3.09 3.66 4.25 4.87 5.50 6.16 6.83
Current ratio 0.81 1.72 1.53 1.63 1.61 2.07 2.56 3.09 3.65 4.23 4.84 5.46 6.11 6.77 7.45
Cash Cycle (Days) 165.47 251.91 218.15 189.77 219.12 208.88 208.88 208.88 208.88 208.88 208.88 208.88 208.88 208.88 208.88
Leverage
Asset/Equity 2.53 1.65 1.69 1.94 1.90 1.76 1.65 1.56 1.48 1.43 1.38 1.34 1.30 1.27 1.25
Debt/Equity 0.63 0.28 0.32 0.40 0.37 0.31 0.25 0.21 0.18 0.16 0.13 0.12 0.10 0.09 0.08
% LT Debt to Total Capital 38.7% 21.9% 24.1% 28.7% 27.2% 23.5% 20.3% 17.6% 15.3% 13.4% 11.8% 10.5% 9.3% 8.4% 7.5%
Operating
A/R Turnover 20.13 26.79 17.00 11.03 5.71 3.20 2.24 1.72 1.39 1.16 0.99 0.87 0.77 0.69
Avg. A/R Days 11.71 14.27 12.02 11.65 12.62 12.46 12.46 12.46 12.46 12.46 12.46 12.46 12.46 12.46 12.46
Inventory Turnover 3.76 4.99 4.75 4.00 4.29 4.45 4.43 4.40 4.39 4.37 4.35 4.34 4.33 4.31
Avg. Inventory Days 66.6 101.8 83.2 86.8 95.3 86.7 86.7 86.7 86.7 86.7 86.7 86.7 86.7 86.7 86.7
A/P Turnover 4.73 5.35 5.82 5.62 5.47 5.46 5.43 5.40 5.38 5.36 5.34 5.32 5.31 5.29
Avg. A/P Days 87.19 135.80 122.95 91.28 111.23 109.69 109.69 109.69 109.69 109.69 109.69 109.69 109.69 109.69 109.69
Fixed Asset Turnover 0.96 1.32 1.42 1.26 1.33 1.41 1.50 1.60 1.71 1.82 1.93 2.05 2.18 2.32
WC / Sales Growth -0.63 -0.59 -0.64 -0.61 -0.58 -0.56 -0.55 -0.53 -0.52 -0.51 -0.51 -0.50 -0.49
ROIC 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.15 0.15 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.13 0.12 0.12 0.11 0.11