© 2011, Astronomical Society of the Pacific

No. 77 • Winter 2011 [Link]/uitc 390 Ashton Avenue, San Francisco, CA 94112

The Drake Equation: 50 Years of Giving Direction to

the Scientific Search for Life Beyond Earth
by Sarah Scoles and Sue Ann Heatherly (National Radio Astronomy Observatory)

Tucked in between two Appalachian mountain ridges

in eastern West Virginia, you’ll find the National Radio
Astronomy Observatory’s Green Bank observatory, home
to one of the largest and most advanced radio telescopes on
Earth. But that’s not all. Green Bank is the first and oldest
site of this national research center, and given that radio
astronomy is a young science, this is where the history is.
For example, SETI, the search for extraterrestrial
intelligence, got its start in Green Bank. Here, in 1960,
Dr. Frank Drake, a young radio astronomer, pointed an
85-foot telescope at two nearby, Sun-like stars: Tau Ceti
and Epsilon Eridani. Drake tuned the telescope to detect
a frequency of around 1,420 MHz, the frequency at which
atomic hydrogen emits. Because hydrogen is the most
abundant element in the universe, Drake thought that if an
extraterrestrial civilization were going to communicate with
us, its astronomers might choose this familiar frequency. He Drake standing in front of the telescope he used to conduct the first modern
was searching for a purposeful signal: a beacon. search in 1960 (he called it project Ozma). Credit: NRAO/NSF/AUI.

This search, called Project Ozma, was the first of its kind
and became the model for future SETI work. Project Ozma Green Bank, bringing people like Carl Sagan and Nobel
produced possibly the most significant result in SETI’s Prize-winning Melvin Calvin together to talk about SETI
history: nothing. But the first nothing is different from the as a science that could—and should—be pursued. To guide
nothings that follow. As Drake said himself, “For all we the meeting, Drake came up with an equation, the Drake
knew, practically every star in the sky had a civilization Equation, which laid out the variables determining how
that’s transmitting.” many intelligent civilizations are in the Milky Way (N):
What Drake learned from Project Ozma’s null result is that N=R*fpneflfifcL
every star is not home to an intelligent, communicative These seven factors, discussed below, not only give us a
civilization. What keeps SETI going, however, is the idea tentative answer to the question “Is anybody out there?”
that perhaps some star system is. but also point SETI researchers in directions that could
2011 marks the 50th anniversary, not of the search, but lead to a discovery. We know more about the equation’s
of a pivotal meeting and the creation of an equation that contents than we did in 1961, when the conference was
has done much to guide us in our quest to find life in the held, but there is still much more to find out. Astronomy
cosmos. In 1961, Drake called a meeting of the minds in and astrobiology have been and continue to follow paths

Universe in the Classroom No. 77 • Winter 2011 Page 1

that lead to better, more scientific, determinations of the amount of time that we, personally, have to detect them.
equation’s N and thus closer to a potential discovery. Along Multiplying all these numbers, some of whose values are
the way, we are discovering more about the universe and far from certain, gives the number of communicating,
about our place in it. intelligent civilizations that exist in the Milky Way at any
given time. That’s what N meant in 1961, and that’s what
What does each part mean? N continues to mean today, amid advances in astronomy,
As you go from left to right in the Drake Equation, each astrobiology, and engineering that have changed our
term zooms closer in on the kinds of civilizations that conception of the universe, and, thus, our estimations of R*,
astronomers want to find—the kinds of civilizations fp, ne , fl , fi , fc , and L.
that we can find, since we must rely on picking up their
transmissions with our telescopes. The terms go from What did Frank Drake know about the parts?
galaxy-scale to individual society-scale, in neat steps that What do we know?
work statistical magic: When you multiply the terms (many
The Drake Equation looks so simple—just multiply! But
of which are probabilities) together, you get an answer that
calculating N isn’t the hard part: The hard part is finding the
has zeroed in on exactly what you wanted to find.
numbers you need to calculate N.
• R*, the first term, is the rate at which life-supporting stars
Some of the quantities—R*, fp, and ne—are observable with
(not too big and not too small, but just right) form;
our current technology. By observing many stellar systems,
• fp is the fraction of those life-supporting stars that has astronomers can come up with reasonable numbers. For
planets; example, let’s say that astronomers look at 100,000 stars
• ne is the number of those planets, per star system, that is and find that 40,000 have planets. If the rest of the galaxy
habitable; behaves like these 100,000 stars (and, chances are, it does), fp
is 0.4, or 40%. But how would we know if a star has planets?
• fl is the fraction of the habitable planets where life
develops; By watching and waiting for a planet to go in front of its
star, astronomers can detect a small change in the star’s
• fi is the fraction of that life that develops intelligence;
brightness caused by this transit. They can also look for
• fc is the fraction of the intelligent life that uses gravitational evidence of planets, such as changes in the
electromagnetic communication; star’s orbit. Although such measurements were not possible
• and, lastly, L is the length of time that those intelligent in Drake’s day, 506 exoplanets have been discovered since
creatures actually send electromagnetic waves into space. 1992. Based on the number of stars checked for planets
versus the number of stars with planets, astronomers have
The Equation follows this path: from the kinds of stars
determined that fp is about 0.4. Drake, without the help of
needed to produce habitable planets, to the chances that
the sensitive telescopes available today, estimated fp to be
those planets will form, to the chances that those planets
0.5—pretty close!
will form life, to the chances that that life will be smart
and not just microbial or bovine, to the chances that the R* (star formation rate), however, appears to be much lower
intelligent life will be detectable by our telescopes, to the than Drake suspected. While data in 1960 suggested that
10 new stars were born every year, the current number is
more like 1 star per year. Since the first SETI meeting, we
have been able to make many more observations of “star
nurseries”—nebulae, where stars are born—and to gather
statistics on the general population, to find stars’ ages and
deduce how many were forming at any given time.
Drake estimated ne, the number of habitable planets in
each system, to be 2. This estimation was based on our solar
system, where one planet is definitely habitable! Mars and
moons like Europa and Titan could also still harbor life, or
evidence of former life. To be considered habitable, planets
need orbits that don’t take them too close or too far from
their star; they need an atmosphere; and they need access to
life-sustaining chemistry, like organic molecules and water.
Drake equation plaque in the NRAO Green Bank Residence Hall Lounge. Note Currently, we are much better at detecting large, hot planets
the smudges from so many people touching the plaque. Credit: NRAO/NSF/AUI.

Universe in the Classroom No. 77 • Winter 2011 Page 2

(ones that are like Jupiter) than planets like Earth, so no
consensus on this number has been reached. It is estimated
to be between 0.5 and 2. As NASA’s sensitive Kepler
telescope, whose mission is to find exoplanets, provides
more data, we will be able to pin ne down.
The last four terms are where the math starts to get dicier. fl,
the fraction of planets where life develops, is not something
we can currently discover, since we cannot travel to the
exoplanets. By looking at their chemistry, we can say
whether life is possible—but not whether life actually is.
We can do work at home, though. Astrobiologists are
trying to determine whether, given the conditions for life
(conditions like those early in Earth’s history), life will arise.
Is life inevitable, or is it an anomaly? Drake believed that it
was inevitable and set fl to 1. Modern scientists tend to be
more conservative with that estimate, so conservative that Frank Drake explaining his equation to BBC program host Dallas Campbell in
the NRAO Green Bank Residence Hall Lounge. Credit: NRAO/NSF/AUI.
they don’t like to speculate.
After we have life, how much of that life will become
intelligent (fi)? Drake said 0.01, but that was even more of
What is the value of the Drake Equation to
a guess than fl. Today, we can do no better. Some say that fi students?
is tiny: of the billions of species on Earth, we are the only So much of the science that students learn is presented
one that became intelligent. Others say that all those species without its context. They never see the false starts, the
were leading inevitably to us, and that given the chance to uncertainty, the speculation, the inaccurate interpretations.
develop, life will always become intelligent—meaning that fi Without this information, science can seem like merely a set
would be 1. Who knows? of facts, and not the process that allowed scientists to draw
After smart life exists, what chance does it have of using conclusions. The importance of knowing about the nature
electromagnetic waves to communicate? Drake said 0.01, or of science—or having a conception of science as a dynamic,
1%. There is evidence for pretty much any number on the rigorous, logical, interpretive, not-always-procedural field—
1-100% spectrum. Until we detect a civilization—or, really, is on par with holding an encyclopedia in your brain.
unless we detect hundreds of civilizations—we can’t know The Drake Equation, by its very existence, can teach
too much about this number. At that point, we won’t care students about the nature of science and what scientists
very much about the Drake Equation! really do, as opposed to what they have already done and
The same is true of L, the length of time that a typical put in textbooks. The Drake Equation demonstrates that
civilization communicates: The only example we can have, science does not (yet) have all the answers, and it shows that
until we find ETI, is ourselves, and we don’t know when our scientists’ opinions and knowledge change over time, since
communication will end. A world war could easily end us. the values that Drake derived were often different from
So could a supernova. Or runaway greenhouse effect. Or the ones derived today, based on new observations made
an asteroid. Or, alternatively, civilization could progress for possible by new technology. However, the Equation also
millions of years. The problem is, we’ll never know until we shows that no matter how many new observations and how
get there. Drake said L was 10,000 years, but, again, that was much fancy technology we have, we still need to speculate.
just guessing, and hope. Drake speculated when he made the equation, having little
L is the term that has the most potential to change the concrete information about the variables, but he struck
equation’s outcome. While most parameters must be gold: The Drake Equation’s terms point in the direction of
between 0 and 1, and can only make N smaller, L can be modern astronomy. The information that Drake thought
anything. The lifetime of civilizations is the most important would be important to SETI has, it turns out, become
factor determining our chances of finding ETI. important to astronomical research.
Taking the current numbers (or the average of the By breaking a huge problem (How rare or common is life
estimates) and multiplying them, we get N=(1)(0.4)(1)(0.5) in the universe?) into a set of smaller problems, Drake and
(0.5)(0.5)(10,000)—Drake’s L thrown in for good measure— the scientists who followed him were able to make sense of
or N=500 communicating civilizations in the galaxy. a question whose answer, it seemed, could only be a shrug

Universe in the Classroom No. 77 • Winter 2011 Page 3

of the shoulders. Students, too, can learn to cut a problem
up into chewable bites—a useful skill on a test, in a lab, in a
term paper, in a social situation, or in a political election.
Fifty years after the Drake Equation’s conception, we are
much closer to being able to discover ETI. We can detect
much weaker signals, we have looked at a much larger area
of space, and we are able to zero in on the kinds of stars and
planets that seem likely candidates. We are also, however,
much closer to estimating how not-alone, or alone, we are,
and thus our chances of SETI success. Sometimes, students
will discover through learning about the Drake Equation,
finding answers takes years and years—sometimes more
than human lifetimes—and there is not always a guarantee
that we will ever find answers. The long time scales and
the uncertainty, however, do not mean we should abandon
speculative fields of science: Instead, they are what make
science exciting. As we learn more about the universe,
Credit: [Link]
we also create new questions. Using science to unravel its
mysteries, over thousands of years of human history, unites
and inspires us.

Resources

[Link]
Drake’s explanation of the equation’s significance and its parameters.
[Link]
A calculator that allows you to put in your estimations of the parameters.
[Link]
A calculator that allows you to put in your estimations of the parameters, but also gives Drake’s estimates, as well as range
of scientifically valid estimates and explanations.
[Link]
Another calculator, but one that also calculates the number of habitable planets in the galaxy, the number of planets in the
galaxy with life, and the number of planets in the galaxy with intelligent life.
[Link]
A detailed analysis of the parameters and what current estimates of them mean for our chances of finding intelligent life.
The Search for Extra-terrestrial Intelligence (SETI): An Introductory Resource Guide, by Andrew Fraknoi
[Link]
The Fermi Paradox
The Fermi Paradox basically asks the question: “if there are so many extraterrestrial civilizations out there, why haven’t
we had contact.” It is the apparent contradiction between the idea intelligent extraterrestrial life is common and has had
adequate time to make contact, and the fact no contact has occurred. Here is a link to explanations of the Fermi Paradox:
[Link]
Webb, Stephen If the Universe is Teeming with Aliens…Where is Everybody? (50 Solutions to the Fermi Paradox). 2002,
Copernicus/Springer Verlag. The great physicist Enrico Fermi wondered one day why aliens were not visiting us, if they
are out there. Here are some interesting answers, intelligently summarized from many sources.

Universe in the Classroom No. 77 • Winter 2011 Page 4

 Classroom Activities

Featured Activity:

Is there life on other worlds? An activity from Life on Earth… and Elsewhere, an Astrobiology Educators Guide from the
NASA Astrobiology Institute. This activity uses the framework of the Drake Equation to have students consider the
implications of each term and make their own estimates of life in the Milky Way galaxy. Included are activity procedures
and worksheets, as well as a math extension activity.
[Link]

Other Activities:

Life on Earth… and Elsewhere, a booklet of activities on astrobiology and the search for life beyond Earth from the NASA
Astrobiology Institute.
[Link]
The Drake Equation: Estimating the Number of Civilizations in the Milky Way Galaxy
[Link]
This page contains a list of the National Science and Mathematics Education Standards that are met by learning about the
Drake Equation and doing the described activities. The first lesson is about statistical extrapolation, the second is about
informed estimation, and the third is about the Drake Equation (and how the first two activities fit in with it).
Activities from the SETI Institute
[Link]
SETI-related activities for students in grades 3–9, along with which National Standards they address.
Messages From Space, a GEMS teacher’s guide
[Link]
Building on collaborative work between the SETI Institute and the Lawrence Hall of Science, Messages from Space takes
advantage of student’s fascination with extraterrestrials to catalyze study of the solar system and beyond. The activities
create an exciting context for students to engage in creative learning, gaining a great deal of astronomical knowledge.
Capturing a Whisper From Space: poster and activities from the NASA Deep Space Network
[Link]
The NASA Deep Space Network (DSN) is a series of radio telescopes used to communicate with spacecraft beyond Earth
orbit. The principles the DSN telescopes use are the same ones as for the radio telescopes used in SETI. The back of the
poster features classroom activities to help learners understand how a radio telescope collects and concentrates radio
signals from deep space.
SETI@home
[Link]
SETI@home is a scientific experiment that uses Internet-connected computers in the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence
(SETI). You can participate by running a free program that downloads and analyzes radio telescope data.
Universe at Your Fingertips 2.0, a collection of astronomy teaching resources on DVD-ROM from Project ASTRO and the
Astronomical Society of the Pacific.
[Link]
This newly revised edition of the popular and comprehensive collection of astronomy teaching resources contains a large
section on Space Exploration and SETI, including background articles, resource guides, and classroom activities.

Universe in the Classroom No. 77 • Winter 2011 Page 5