Deutsche Bank

Research

Rating Company Date

20 August 2024
Hold NVIDIA Corporation
Results
North America
United States Reuters Bloomberg Exchange Ticker Price at 20 Aug 2024 (USD) 127.25
[Link] NVDA US NMS NVDA
Price target 100.00
TMT
52-week range 696.41 - 40.32
Semiconductors

F2Q25 Preview: Fundamental

momentum to persist Valuation & Risks

Ross Seymore
NVIDIA will report F2Q25 results after the market close on Wednesday, August Research Analyst
28th. A conference call to discuss results is scheduled at 5:00pm ET. +1-415-617-3268

Melissa Weathers
DB Take: Demand outstrips supply once again Research Analyst
We expect another strong quarter & guide from NVDA as appetite for NVDA Hopper +1-212-250-2134
& Blackwell solutions at Cloud, Enterprise, Consumer Internet, and sovereign
DJ Sebastian
customers does not appear to have slowed since NVDA’s last report (as evidenced
Research Associate
by key players continuing to guide for capex growth y/y at least into 2025). Despite +1-415-262-2007
fears of “delays” of the launch of NVDA’s Blackwell platform due to technical
Gianmarco Vella
concerns (see our note here), we doubt such a delay would have a material impact
Research Associate
on the co’s near-term outlook/ability to achieve Street estimates, with any shortfall
+1-857-891-9383
in supply likely to be supplanted by higher Hopper sales. All told, given NVDA’s
track record of beating its own guidance (beat revenue midpoint by $2b+ the last
4 quarters), we would not be surprised to see yet another multi-billion dollar positive
revision to revenue estimates, albeit with the sustainability of that spend in the long
term still being debated. Overall, we commend NVDA for its leadership in almost all
aspects of the AI compute market, with the co well-positioned to capitalize on
healthy spend in the medium term. However, with shares trading at ~40x our CY25E
EPS, we view the shares as fully valued.

F2Q25 (Jul) Results: Another strong beat

We model NVDA to deliver Jul-qtr revenues of $28.5b (+9% q/q), just below the
Street at $28.7b but still above the midpoint of guidance of $28.0b, given the co's
consistent track record of beating its own guidance by ~$2b on average in the last
four quarters (more upside likely?). By end market, we model Data Center revs
growing +9% q/q to ~$24.6b (+$2.0b q/q). We model Gaming revenues growing
+11% q/q in-line with guidance for growth, while we see Proviz revs +5% q/q (vs.
guidance of up q/q) and Auto +15% q/q. For margins, we model GMs contracting
-340bps q/q to 75.5% in-line with guidance, and we see opex growing +12% q/q to
Distributed on: 20/08/2024 [Link] GMT

$2.80b (in-line with guidance of $2.80b). All told, we see Jul-qtr PF EPS of $0.63
(post-split) vs. Street at $0.65.

F3Q25 (Oct) Guide: Strong guide expected

We currently forecast NVDA F2Q25 revenues of $30.6b (+8% q/q, +70% y/y)
reflecting increased supply and still-strong demand, but still below Street estimates
of $31.7b (+10% q/q). We acknowledge upside risk to this estimate given NVDA’s

Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.

IMPORTANT RESEARCH DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. Deutsche Bank does
and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm may
have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. MCI (P) 041/10/2023.

7T2se3r0Ot6kwoPa
20 August 2024
Semiconductors
NVIDIA Corporation

track record of beating Street expectations and persistent momentum across a

broad base of customers. We model Data Center revs growing +7% q/q to $26.4b
(+$1.8b q/q) on continued demand AI Compute + Networking solutions. We model
Gaming revs growing +10% q/q on seasonality. Lastly, we see Proviz revs growing
flat q/q and Automotive +20% q/q on new model launches at customers. For
margins, we see GMs falling -90bps to 74.6% (in-line with guidance for GM to fall
back to the mid-70% range in F2Q-4Q), and opex growing +5% q/q to $2.94b. All
told, we see Oct-qtr EPS of $0.68, below the Street at $0.71 on lower revs.

Page 2 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.

20 August 2024
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NVIDIA Corporation

Appendix 1
Important Disclosures
*Other information available upon request

Disclosure checklist
Company Ticker Recent price* Disclosure
NVIDIA Corporation [Link] 130.0 (USD) 19 Aug 2024 8, 15
*Prices are current as of the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated and are sourced from local exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors . Other
information is sourced from Deutsche Bank, subject companies, and other sources. For disclosures pertaining to recommendations or estimates made on securities other than the primary
subject of this research, please see the most recently published company report or visit our global disclosure look-up page on our website at [Link]
EquityResearchDisclosures. Aside from within this report, important risk and conflict disclosures can also be found at [Link] Investors
are strongly encouraged to review this information before investing.

Important Disclosures Required by U.S. Regulators

Disclosures marked with an asterisk may also be required by at least one jurisdiction in addition to the United [Link]
Important Disclosures Required by Non-US Regulators and Explanatory Notes.
8. Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) expects to receive, or intends to seek, compensation for investment banking
services from this company in the next three months.
15. This company has been a client of Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. within the past year during which time it received
investment banking services.

Important Disclosures Required by Non-U.S. Regulators

Disclosures marked with an asterisk may also be required by at least one jurisdiction in addition to the United [Link]
Important Disclosures Required by Non-US Regulators and Explanatory Notes.

For disclosures pertaining to recommendations or estimates made on securities other than the primary subject of this
research, please see the most recently published company report or visit our global disclosure look-up page on our website
at [Link] Aside from within this report, important risk
and conflict disclosures can also be found at [Link] Investors are strongly
encouraged to review this information before investing.

Analyst Certification
The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned lead analyst(s) about the subject
issuer and the securities of the issuer. In addition, the undersigned lead analyst(s) has not and will not receive any
compensation for providing a specific recommendation or view in this report. Ross Seymore.

Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Page 3

20 August 2024
Semiconductors
NVIDIA Corporation

Historical recommendations and target price: NVIDIA Corporation ([Link])

(as of 08/19/2024)
1500.00 Current Recommendations
Buy
Hold
1250.00 Sell
Not Rated
16
Suspended Rating
1000.00
Security price

15
14 ** Analyst is no longer at
Deutsche Bank
750.00

500.00 12 13
11
1
2 9 10
250.00 3 4 5 7 8
6 17

0.00
Jan '22 Jul '22 Jan '23 Jul '23 Jan '24 Jul '24
Date

1. 11/18/2021 Hold, Target Price Change USD 285.00, Current Price 10. 03/22/2023 Hold, Target Price Change USD 220.00, Current Price
USD 316.75 Ross Seymore USD 264.68 Ross Seymore
2. 04/20/2022 Hold, Target Price Change USD 255.00, Current Price 11. 05/25/2023 Hold, Target Price Change USD 390.00, Current Price
USD 214.82 Ross Seymore USD 379.80 Ross Seymore
3. 05/26/2022 Hold, Target Price Change USD 190.00, Current Price 12. 07/16/2023 Hold, Target Price Change USD 440.00, Current Price
USD 178.51 Ross Seymore USD 454.69 Ross Seymore
4. 07/19/2022 Hold, Target Price Change USD 175.00, Current Price 13. 08/24/2023 Hold, Target Price Change USD 560.00, Current Price
USD 169.92 Ross Seymore USD 471.63 Ross Seymore
5. 08/25/2022 Hold, Target Price Change USD 165.00, Current Price 14. 02/22/2024 Hold, Target Price Change USD 720.00, Current Price
USD 179.13 Ross Seymore USD 785.38 Ross Seymore
6. 10/17/2022 Hold, Target Price Change USD 140.00, Current Price 15. 03/19/2024 Hold, Target Price Change USD 850.00, Current Price
USD 118.88 Ross Seymore USD 893.98 Ross Seymore
7. 11/17/2022 Hold, Target Price Change USD 150.00, Current Price 16. 05/23/2024 Hold, Target Price Change USD 1000.00, Current Price
USD 156.77 Ross Seymore USD 1037.99 Ross Seymore
8. 12/13/2022 Hold, Target Price Change USD 170.00, Current Price 17. 06/10/2024 Hold, Target Price Change USD 100.00, Current Price
USD 180.72 Ross Seymore USD 121.79 Joe Schwab
9. 02/23/2023 Hold, Target Price Change USD 200.00, Current Price
USD 236.64 Ross Seymore
§§§§$$$$$§§§§§

Equity Rating Key Equity rating dispersion and banking relationships

Buy: Based on a current 12-month view of TSR, we

recommend that investors buy the stock.
Sell: Based on a current 12-month view of TSR, we
recommend that investors sell the stock.
Hold: We take a neutral view on the stock 12-months out and,
based on this time horizon, do not recommend either a Buy or
Sell.
TSR = Total Shareholder Return. Percentage change in share
price from current price to projected target price plus
projected dividend yield

Newly issued research recommendations and target prices

supersede previously published research.

Page 4 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.

20 August 2024
Semiconductors
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Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Page 5

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are neither an indicator nor guarantee of future returns. Actual results will vary, perhaps materially, from the analysis.

The method for computing individual E,S,G and composite ESG scores set forth herein is a novel method developed by the
Research department within Deutsche Bank AG, computed using a systematic approach without human intervention.
Different data providers, market sectors and geographies approach ESG analysis and incorporate the findings in a variety of
ways. As such, the ESG scores referred to herein may differ from equivalent ratings developed and implemented by other ESG
data providers in the market and may also differ from equivalent ratings developed and implemented by other divisions within
the Deutsche Bank Group. Such ESG scores also differ from other ratings and rankings that have historically been applied in
research reports published by Deutsche Bank AG. Further, such ESG scores do not represent a formal or official view of
Deutsche Bank AG. It should be noted that the decision to incorporate ESG factors into any investment strategy may inhibit
the ability to participate in certain investment opportunities that otherwise would be consistent with your investment objective
and other principal investment strategies. The returns on a portfolio consisting primarily of sustainable investments may be
lower or higher than portfolios where ESG factors, exclusions, or other sustainability issues are not considered, and the
investment opportunities available to such portfolios may differ. Companies may not necessarily meet high performance
standards on all aspects of ESG or sustainable investing issues; there is also no guarantee that any company will meet
expectations in connection with corporate responsibility, sustainability, and/or impact performance.

Copyright © 2024 Deutsche Bank AG

Page 8 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.

 David Folkerts-Landau
Group Chief Economist and Global Head of Research

Pam Finelli Steve Pollard Jim Reid Tim Rokossa

Global Chief Operating Officer Global Head of Company Global Head of Head of Germany
Research Research and Sales Macro and Thematic Research Research

Gerry Gallagher Matthew Barnard Peter Milliken Debbie Jones

Head of European Head of Americas Head of APAC Global Head of
Company Research Company Research Company Research Sustainability, Research

Sameer Goel Francis Yared George Saravelos Peter Hooper

Global Head of EM & APAC Global Head of Rates Research Global Head of FX Research Vice-Chair of Research
Research

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