Conditional Probability
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Conditional Probability: P(A l
B)
• Read as “probability of A given B”
• The probability of A given that event B has occurred
P(A l B) = P(A and B), where P(B) > 0
P(B)
• The occurrence of A is dependent on B, so that if B has not yet
happened, then A cannot occur
Which is an example of two
Independent Events independent events?
Two events such that the occurrence of one
event does not affect the occurrence of the 1. Experiment: Observing the sex of
babies born at a clinic
other.
. A = observing a male on first
P(AlB) = P(A) and P(BlA) = P(B) birth
B = observing a female on
The probability of both independent events 2. another
Experiment: Getting a ball from a
occurring is the product of their individual box containing 3 white and 2 red
probabilities. balls
A = getting a white on first draw
P(A and B) = P(A)× P(B)
B = getting a red on second draw
Otherwise, the events are dependent. The first ball drawn is not returned to
the box before the second draw.
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Conditional Probability: P(A lB)
• Read as “probability of A given B”
• The probability of A given that event B has occurred
P(A l B) = P(A and B), where P(B) > 0
P(B)
• The occurrence of A is dependent on B, so that if B has not yet
happened, then A cannot occur
Conditional Probability: Example
A study of end organ damage was done on hypertensive patients seen at the UP
– PGH Medical Center. The table below was compiled from 306 newly identified
cases of hypertension and shows evidence of end organ damage by severity of
hypertension.
ECG Severity of Hypertension 1. What is the probability that a
patient has ECG abnormality
Abnormality Mild to Severe Total given that he has a severe
Moderate hypertension?
Positive 56 22 78
23 228 2. What is the probability that a new
Negative 205
case coming to the clinic has Mild
Total 261 45 306 to Moderate hypertension given
that he has a normal ECG?
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Exercise
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Theorem of Total Probability
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Example:
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Example:
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Bayes’ Rule
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Example:
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Example
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Solution:
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References
Walpole, R., et al, Probability and Statistics for Engineers and
Scientists
Magboo, V., Gonzaga, A., Billones, L., Learning Manual in
Elementary Statistics
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