CPM= Critical Path Method
Project network
A C
F
Start
H
B D I Finish
E
Req-(a):
Calculation of expected time and variance
a+ 4 m+b
Expected time, t= 6
Where, a= optimistic time, m= most probable time and b= pessimistic time
2
b−a
The variance of activity, σ 2=( )
6
Activity Optimistic (a) Most probable (m) Pessimistic (b) a+ 4 m+b b−a
2
t= 2
σ =( )
6 6
A 3 5 6 a+ 4 m+b 3+4 ×5+6 2 6−3 2
t= = σ=4.83
=( ) =0.25
6 6 6
B 2 4 6 4 0.44
C 5 6 7 6 0.11
D 7 9 10 8.83 0.25
E 2 4 6 4 0.44
F 1 2 3 2 0.11
G 5 8 10 7.83 0.69
H 6 8 10 8 0.44
I 3 4 5 4 0.11
G 13.66 21.43
7.83 13.83 21.66
EF= ES +t
LF= LS-t
Activity Schedule:
Activity Earliest start (ES) Earliest finish (EF) Latest start (LS) Latest finish (LF) Slack = LS-ES= Critical path
LF-EF
A 0 4.83 0 4.83 0-0=4.83-4.83= 0 Yes
B 0 4 0.83 4.83 0.83 No
C 4.83 10.83 5.66 11.66 0.83 No
D 4.83 13.66 4.83 13.66 0 Yes
E 4 8 17.66 21.66 13.66 No
F 10.83 12.83 11.66 13.66 0.83 No
G 13.66 21.43 13.83 21.66 0.17 No
H 13.66 21.66 13.66 21.66 0 Yes
I 21.66 25.66 21.66 25.66 0 Yes
Critical path ADHI
Critical activities are: A, D, H and I
Req-(b):
Expected time to complete the project= t A +t D + t H + t I =¿4.83+8.83+8+4= 25.66 days
Req-(c):
2 2 2 2
Total variance for critical path, σ 2= σ A +σ D +σ H + σ I =¿0.25+0.25+0.44+0.11= 1.05
Standard deviation, σ =√ 1.05=1.025
1.025 days
25.66 days
Z-distribution
When, t= 25 days then
Time−Expected time 25−25.66
Z= = =−0.65
Standard deviation 1.025
The table value from normal distribution for Z= -0.65 is 0.2578
So, the probability that the project can be completed in 25 or fewer days= 0.2578= 25.78%
Req-(d):
When t= 27 days then
Time−Expected time 2 7−25.66
Z= = =1.31
Standard deviation 1.025
The table value from normal distribution for Z= 1.31 is 0.9049
So, the probability that the project can be completed in 27 or fewer days= 0.9049=90.49%
Req-(e):
If the company wants a 0.99 probability of completing the project on time, how far ahead of the scheduled meeting
date should he begin working on the project?
In the normal distribution, for a probability of 0.99 the value of Z= 2.33
Time−25.66
2.33=
1.025
Or, 2.388= Time – 25.66
Or, Time= 25.66+2.388= 28.048
Time= 28.048 days
If the company wants a 0.99 probability of completing the project on time, then 28.048 days ahead of the scheduled
meeting date should begin working on the project.
For Final Examination:
q-1: Introduction + Model formulation
q-2: LPP: Duality formation, range of optimality, range of feasibility
q-3: Networking: Theory, PERT, CPM
q-4: Transportation and Assignment problem, theory, sheet + Book
(Anderson)
q-5: Decision theory: selected maths
q-6: Game theory: sheet solved problems under the methods that I used.
q-7: Waiting line model: sheet + Assignment
