Raw Data Month 2013 2014 2015 Seasonal Deseasonalized Data

Month 2013 2014 2015 Average Index Index Index Index 2013 2014
Jan 34 27 32 31.00 2.400 1.988 2.246 2.214 15.35 12.19
Feb 33 31 26 30.00 2.329 2.282 1.825 2.143 15.40 14.47
Mar 10 11 12 11.00 0.706 0.810 0.842 0.786 12.73 14.00
Apr 3 4 5 4.00 0.212 0.294 0.351 0.286 10.50 14.00
May 0 2 4 2.00 0.000 0.147 0.281 0.143 0.00 14.00
Jun 2 1 3 2.00 0.141 0.074 0.211 0.143 14.00 7.00
Jul 0 1 2 1.00 0.000 0.074 0.140 0.071 0.00 14.00
Aug 4 3 5 4.00 0.282 0.221 0.351 0.286 14.00 10.50
Sep 9 11 10 10.00 0.635 0.810 0.702 0.714 12.60 15.40
Oct 14 13 15 14.00 0.988 0.957 1.053 1.000 14.00 13.00
Nov 27 29 25 27.00 1.906 2.135 1.754 1.929 14.00 15.04
Dec 34 30 32 32.00 2.400 2.209 2.246 2.286 14.88 13.13
SUM 170 163 171 168.00
Annual 14.17 13.58 14.25 14.00

Check sums 14 14.00

Alpha 0.3
Raw Deseasonalized
Moving Weighted Actual
Average Average Exponential Demand
Jan 34 15.35 15.35 16.00 15.35
Feb 33 15.40 15.40 15.81 15.40
Mar 10 12.73 12.73 15.68 12.73
Apr 3 10.50 10.50 14.80 10.50
May 0 0.00 0.00 13.51 0.00
Jun 2 14.00 14.00 9.46 14.00
Jul 0 0.00 0.00 10.82 0.00
Aug 4 14.00 14.00 7.57 14.00
Sep 9 12.60 12.60 9.50 12.60
Oct 14 14.00 14.00 10.43 14.00
Nov 27 14.00 14.00 11.50 14.00
Dec 34 14.88 14.88 12.25 14.88
Jan 27 12.19 12.19 13.04 12.19
Feb 31 14.47 14.47 12.78 14.47
Mar 11 14.00 14.00 13.29 14.00
Apr 4 14.00 14.00 13.50 14.00
May 2 14.00 14.00 13.65 14.00
Jun 1 7.00 7.00 13.76 7.00
Jul 1 14.00 14.00 11.73 14.00
Aug 3 10.50 10.50 12.41 10.50
Sep 11 15.40 15.40 11.84 15.40
Oct 13 13.00 13.00 12.91 13.00
Nov 29 15.04 15.04 12.93 15.04
Dec 30 13.13 13.13 13.57 13.13
Jan 32 14.45 14.45 13.43 14.45
Feb 26 12.13 12.13 13.74 12.13
Mar 12 15.27 15.27 13.26 15.27
Apr 5 17.50 17.50 13.86 17.50
May 4 28.00 28.00 14.95 28.00
Jun 3 21.00 21.00 18.87 21.00
Jul 2 28.00 28.00 19.51 28.00
Aug 5 17.50 17.50 22.05 17.50
Sep 10 14.00 14.00 20.69 14.00
Oct 15 15.00 15.00 18.68 15.00
Nov 25 12.96 12.96 17.58 12.96
Dec 32 14.00 14.00 16.19 14.00
Jan 30.97 13.99 13.82 15.54 15.87 1.89 2.05
Feb 30.60 14.28 14.76 15.64 14.64 0.36 -0.12
Mar 11.66 14.84 14.94 15.34 15.68 0.84 0.73
Apr 4.40 15.40 15.36 15.44 15.51 0.11 0.14
May 2.18 15.27 15.42 15.46 19.73 4.46 4.32
Jun 2.42 16.97 17.65 16.74 18.61 1.63 0.96
Jul 1.28 17.95 18.47 17.30 17.37 -0.58 -1.10
Aug 5.31 18.57 18.17 17.32 18.61 0.04 0.43
Sep 13.00 18.19 18.19 17.71 14.92 -3.27 -3.27
Oct 16.97 16.97 16.56 16.87 15.79 -1.18 -0.77
Nov 31.71 16.44 15.97 16.55 15.51 -0.93 -0.46
Dec 35.21 15.41 15.50 16.23 15.08 -0.32 -0.42
3.04 2.48

Raw Data
40

35

30

25

20

15

10

0
n b r r y n l g p t v c n b r r y n l g p t v c n b r r y n l g p t v c
Ja F e Ma Ap Ma Ju Ju Au S e Oc No De Ja F e Ma Ap Ma Ju Ju Au S e Oc No De Ja F e Ma Ap Ma Ju Ju Au S e Oc No De
 2016 2016
easonalized Data Raw Moving Deseasonalized
Weighted Expon. Moving2016 Reseasonalized
Weighted Forecasts Raw
2015 Actuals 2016 2016 2016 2016 Average Average Exponential Actuals
14.45 34 15.87 13.99 13.82 15.54 30.97 30.60 34.40 34
12.13 29 14.64 14.28 14.76 15.64 30.60 31.64 33.51 29
15.27 13 15.68 14.84 14.94 15.34 11.66 11.74 12.05 13
17.50 5 15.51 15.40 15.36 15.44 4.40 4.39 4.41 5
28.00 5 19.73 15.27 15.42 15.46 2.18 2.20 2.21 5
21.00 3 18.61 16.97 17.65 16.74 2.42 2.52 2.39 3
28.00 2 17.37 17.95 18.47 17.30 1.28 1.32 1.24 2
17.50 6 18.61 18.57 18.17 17.32 5.31 5.19 4.95 6
14.00 11 14.92 18.19 18.19 17.71 13.00 13.00 12.65 11
15.00 16 15.79 16.97 16.56 16.87 16.97 16.56 16.87 16
12.96 30 15.51 16.44 15.97 16.55 31.71 30.80 31.91 30
14.00 33 15.08 15.41 15.50 16.23 35.21 35.44 37.11 33
SUM
MAD
Tracking
Signal
MSE
MAPE

Jan to Mar. J. to M.
Cumulative Cumul.
79.96 76
 0.34
-1.00
0.34
0.07
4.28
1.86
0.06
1.29
-2.78
-1.08
-1.04
-1.15
1.18

Reseasonalized Data with One-Year Forecast (Dark Shading)

40

35

30

25

20

15

10
l
un Ju Aug S ep Oct Nov Dec
5

0
n ar ay l p v n ar ay l p v n ar ay l p v n ar
Ja M M Ju Se No Ja M M Ju Se No Ja M M Ju Se No Ja M M

Raw Deseasonalized
0
n ar ay l p v n ar ay l p v n ar ay l p v n ar
Ja M M Ju Se No Ja M M Ju Se No Ja M M Ju Se No Ja M M

Raw Deseasonalized
 2016 2016 Squared Squared
MovingAbsolute Errors
Weighted Expon. Month Seasonal Weighted Moving Expon. Moving Weighted
Error Error Error Average Index Error +/- Error +/- Error +/- Error Error
3.03 3.40 0.40 31.00 2.14 3.03 3.40 -0.40 9.16 11.54
1.60 2.64 4.51 28.67 1.98 -1.60 -2.64 -4.51 2.55 6.95
1.34 1.26 0.95 12.00 0.83 1.34 1.26 0.95 1.80 1.58
0.60 0.61 0.59 4.67 0.32 0.60 0.61 0.59 0.36 0.37
2.82 2.80 2.79 3.67 0.25 2.82 2.80 2.79 7.94 7.82
0.58 0.48 0.61 2.33 0.16 0.58 0.48 0.61 0.33 0.23
0.72 0.68 0.76 1.67 0.12 0.72 0.68 0.76 0.52 0.46
0.69 0.81 1.05 4.67 0.32 0.69 0.81 1.05 0.48 0.65
2.00 2.00 1.65 10.67 0.74 -2.00 -2.00 -1.65 3.98 3.98
0.97 0.56 0.87 14.67 1.01 -0.97 -0.56 -0.87 0.93 0.31
1.71 0.80 1.91 28.00 1.93 -1.71 -0.80 -1.91 2.91 0.64
2.21 2.44 4.11 31.67 2.19 -2.21 -2.44 -4.11 4.90 5.93
18.25 18.45 20.20 173.67 1.30 1.60 -6.69 35.87 40.47
1.52 1.54 1.68 14.47
0.85 1.04 -3.98
2.99 3.37

3-Mo.
Bias
-3.96
recast (Dark Shading)

ay l p v n ar ay l p v
Ju Se No Ja M M Ju Se No

lized
ay l p v n ar ay l p v
Ju Se No Ja M M Ju Se No

lized
Squared
Expon. Moving Weighted Expon.
Error APE APE APE
0.16 8.90% 9.99% 1.17%
20.31 5.51% 9.09% 15.54%
0.90 10.32% 9.68% 7.30%
0.35 12.02% 12.20% 11.77%
7.79 56.36% 55.95% 55.83%
0.37 19.18% 15.96% 20.28%
0.58 35.90% 34.05% 38.21%
1.10 11.57% 13.45% 17.52%
2.72 18.14% 18.14% 14.98%
0.76 6.04% 3.49% 5.45%
3.66 5.68% 2.66% 6.37%
16.87 6.71% 7.38% 12.45%
55.57 196.32% 192.04% 206.87%

4.63
16.36% 16.00% 17.24%
 Raw v
40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5
25

20

15

10

0
n ar ay l p v
Ja M M Ju Se No
Raw versus Deseasonalized Data
 n ar ay l p v n ar ay l p v n ar ay l p v
Ja M M Ju Se No Ja M M Ju Se No Ja M M Ju Se No

Raw Data Deseasonalized Data