Unit 2

Climate change and vulnerability

Vulnerability
The characteristics determined by physical, social, economic and environmental factors or
processes which increase the susceptibility of an individual, a community, assets or systems
to the impacts of hazards. It is susceptibility to suffer losses. It is the extent to which people
or buildings are likely to suffer harm from a disaster.
There are four (4) main types of vulnerability:

1. Physical Vulnerability may be determined by aspects such as population density levels,

remoteness of a settlement, the site, design and materials used for critical infrastructure and
for housing (UNISDR).

Example: Wooden homes are less likely to collapse in an earthquake, but are more vulnerable
to fire.

2. Social Vulnerability refers to the inability of people, organizations and societies to

withstand adverse impacts to hazards due to characteristics inherent in social interactions,
institutions and systems of cultural values. It is linked to the level of wellbeing of individuals,
communities and society. It includes aspects related to levels of literacy and education, the
existence of peace and security, access to basic human rights, systems of good governance,
social equity, positive traditional values, customs and ideological beliefs and overall
collective organizational systems (UNISDR).

Example: When flooding occurs some citizens, such as children, elderly and differently-
abled, may be unable to protect themselves or evacuate if necessary.

3. Economic Vulnerability. The level of vulnerability is highly dependent upon the

economic status of individuals, communities and nations The poor are usually more
vulnerable to disasters because they lack the resources to build sturdy structures and put other
engineering measures in place to protect themselves from being negatively impacted by
disasters.

Example: Poorer families may live in squatter settlements because they cannot afford to live
in safer (more expensive) areas.
4. Environmental Vulnerability. Natural resource depletion and resource degradation are
key aspects of environmental vulnerability.

Example: Wetlands, such as the Caroni Swamp, are sensitive to increasing salinity from sea
water, and pollution from storm water runoff containing agricultural chemicals, eroded soils,
etc

Climate change vulnerability is a concept that describes how strongly people

or ecosystems are likely to be affected by climate change. Its formal definition is the
"propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected" by climate change. It can apply to
humans and also to natural systems (or ecosystems).
Climate Change Vulnerability is defined by the IPCC as the susceptibility of a species,
system or resource to the negative effects of climate change and other stressors, and includes
three components: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity:
1. Exposure- The situation of people, infrastructure, housing, production capacities and other
tangible human assets located in hazard-prone areas. In terms of climate change, Exposure is
the amount and rate of change that a species or system experiences from the direct
(e.g., temperature, precipitation changes) or indirect (e.g., habitat shifts due to
changing vegetation composition) impacts of climate change;
2. Sensitivity refers to characteristics of a species or system that are dependent on
specific environmental conditions, and the degree to which it will likely be affected
by climate change (e.g., temperature or hydrological requirements); and
3. Adaptive capacity is the ability of a species to cope and persist under changing
conditions through local or regional acclimation, dispersal or migration, adaptation
(e.g., behavioural shifts), and/or evolution.

Vulnerability is a component of climate risk. Climate risk is the potential for climate change
to negatively impact societies and ecosystems. It can have consequences for lives,
livelihoods, health, and well-being, as well as economic, social, and cultural assets,
infrastructure, and ecosystems.

 Vulnerability
A flaw or weakness in an asset's design, implementation, or operation. This could be a
mistake, bug, or outdated software. For example, a weak password or encryption error could
be a vulnerability.
  Threat
A potential danger or harmful event that can exploit a vulnerability. Threats can be
intentional or unintentional. For example, a threat actor might try to exploit a vulnerability
to gain unauthorized access to data or systems.
 Risk
The likelihood of a threat exploiting a vulnerability and causing harm. It represents the
potential loss or damage associated with a specific threat. In theory, a risk is the product of a
threat and a vulnerability. You can't have risk without both a vulnerability and a threat.

Risk can be expressed as:

Risk = Probability of Hazard × Degree of Vulnerability × Exposure

Vulnerability differs within communities and also across societies, regions, and countries. It
can increase or decrease over time. Vulnerability is generally a bigger problem for people
in low-income countries than for those in high-income countries.

Under this framework, a highly vulnerable system would be a system that is very sensitive to
modest changes in climate, where the sensitivity includes the potential for substantial harmful
effects, and for which the ability to adapt is severely constrained. For example, Higher levels
of vulnerability are found in areas with poverty, poor governance and conflict. Also, some
livelihoods are more sensitive to the effects of climate change than others. Smallholder
farmers, pastoralists, and fishing communities are livelihoods that may be especially
vulnerable.
Resilience is the flip side of vulnerability—a resilient system or population is not sensitive to
climate variability and change and has the capacity to adapt.

Types
Climate change vulnerability has a wide variety of different meanings and uses of the term
have varied and evolved over time. The main distinction is between physical, social and
economic vulnerability.

What is Physical Vulnerability in Climate Change?

Physical vulnerability refers to the susceptibility of a region or a population to the adverse
impacts of climate change. It is the result of the interaction between the magnitude of climate
hazards and the sensitivity and adaptive capacity of a system. Climate change can lead to
increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, such as hurricanes, floods,
droughts, and heatwaves. These events can cause significant damage to infrastructure,
ecosystems, and human lives.

Factors Influencing Physical Vulnerability

There are several factors that influence physical vulnerability in the face of climate change:
1. Geographic Location: Vulnerability is often determined by the proximity to coastlines,
rivers, or other high-risk areas. For example, coastal areas are more susceptible to sea-level
rise and storm surges, while regions prone to droughts are at risk of water scarcity.
2. Climate Hazards: The type and magnitude of climate hazards prevalent in a region, such as
cyclones, heavy rainfall, or heatwaves, can greatly impact physical vulnerability.
3. Socioeconomic Conditions: The socioeconomic status of a population plays a crucial role
in determining their vulnerability. Poorer communities often lack the resources and
infrastructure necessary to adapt and recover from climate-related events.
4. Infrastructure and Built Environment: The quality and resilience of infrastructure, such as
buildings, roads, and drainage systems, can either mitigate or exacerbate the impacts of
climate change.
5. Ecological Systems: The health and resilience of ecosystems, such as forests and wetlands,
can affect physical vulnerability. Healthy ecosystems provide natural buffers against climate
hazards and support livelihoods.

Impacts of Physical Vulnerability

Physical vulnerability to climate change can result in various impacts:
1. Loss of Life and Livelihoods: Extreme weather events can lead to loss of life and
displacement of populations. Furthermore, damage to agricultural lands, fisheries, and other
natural resources can disrupt livelihoods and food security.
2. Infrastructure Damage: Climate-related events can damage critical infrastructure, including
buildings, roads, bridges, and power grids. This can disrupt transportation, communication,
and access to essential services.
3. Ecosystem Degradation: Climate change can cause the degradation and loss of ecosystems,
which provide crucial services such as water regulation, carbon sequestration, and
biodiversity conservation.
4. Economic Losses: Physical vulnerability can result in significant economic losses due to
damage and disruption of infrastructure, agriculture, tourism, and other sectors.

Measuring physical vulnerability

The Physical Vulnerability to Climate Change Index (PVCCI) is a freely available index that
measures the physical and structural risk countries face from climate change. It is calculated
for 191 countries and can be disaggregated to the sub-national level. The PVCCI is used to:

 Identify the most vulnerable countries

 Guide the allocation of international resources for adaptation

 Ensure that financial support for developing countries is allocated based on their
vulnerability to climate change

The PVCCI is based on two types of climate change risk: progressive shocks and the
intensification of recurrent shocks. It uses a performance score scale of 0 to 100, with a lower
score indicating a better situation.

The PVCCI is independent of a country's current policies, and is based on exogenous

factors. It is a dynamic, forward-looking indicator, even though it is based on past data.

2.Social vulnerability
The term social vulnerability gives an idea of the “internal” feature of the vulnerability. It is
indicative of the characters of the community that can cast influence on the capacity for
preparing, responding and recovering from the hazards and disasters. When we define social
vulnerability in simple terms, it can be as “the differential capacity of groups and individuals
to deal with hazards, based on their positions within physical and social worlds” (Dow,
1992), or as “the inability to take effective measures to insure against losses” (Bogard, 1988).
According to Wisner (2004), it can be defined as “the characteristics of a person or group and
their situation that influence their capacity to anticipate, cope with, resist, or recover from the
impact of a hazard”. When the concept of livelihood is integrated with social vulnerability,
we need to look at the definition given by Adger, who refers it as “the exposure of groups or
individuals to stress as a result of social and environmental change, where stress refers to
unexpected changes and disruption to livelihood” (Adger, 1999, p. 249).

Social vulnerability can be generally observed after the occurrence of any event or hazard
when different patterns can be seen across the same populations who have been exposed to
the event. This gives an insight as to why certain groups within the community like children,
elders, women or marginalized people face hazards more severely than others though being
having a similar exposure (Cutter et al. 2000, Heinz Center 2000, Cutter and Finch 2003,
Warner 2007). There can be several factors which have been discussed in the following
sections that may limit the capacities of the communities for speedy recovery from the
impacts of the event, thus aggravating their social vulnerable situations. This leads to a
conclusion that the nature of social vulnerability is “pre-existing condition” or an inherent
property of the communities that may not depend upon the nature of the natural hazard.

Social Vulnerability in Climate Change Social vulnerability refers to the susceptibility of

individuals, communities, or societies to the adverse impacts of climate change. It
encompasses various factors such as socio-economic status, access to resources, demographic
characteristics, and institutional capacity. Climate change exacerbates existing vulnerabilities
and creates new ones, disproportionately affecting marginalized and disadvantaged groups.
Understanding social vulnerability is crucial for developing effective climate change
adaptation and mitigation strategies.

Key Factors Contributing to Social Vulnerability:

1.Socio-economic status: Economic resources and social capital play a vital role in
determining a community's ability to cope with climate change impacts. Low-income
communities often have limited access to resources, making them more vulnerable to extreme
weather events, sea-level rise, and food insecurity.
Communities or households having better access to economic resources are found to be more
resilient as they can sustain the stress for a longer period of time. In India, households
classified as above poverty line (APL) are considered to be more resilient than the below
poverty line (BPL) households. The larger number of BPL households enhance the social
vulnerability. When we are discussing about the economic factors, the occupational structures
need to be understood while analysing the social vulnerability. If the income is based upon
occupations which are linked to natural resources like agriculture, animal husbandry and
fisheries, they are more likely to be affected by natural hazards or climate related hazards.
These occupations enhance the social vulnerability of the communities. Similarly, if the
community owns the land rather than taking on rent it gives more resilience. Higher number
of landholders in the community reduces the social vulnerability.

2. Demographic characteristics: Certain demographic groups, such as children, the elderly,

women, and people with disabilities, are more vulnerable to climate change impacts due to
their specific needs and limited mobility. Indigenous communities and ethnic minorities may
also experience higher vulnerability due to their close relationship with nature and
dependence on natural resources.
3. Access to resources: Limited access to basic amenities like clean water, healthcare,
education, and infrastructure increases social vulnerability. Inadequate access to information
and technology further hinders communities' ability to adapt to climate change.
4. Institutional capacity: Effective governance, policies, and institutions are crucial for
climate change adaptation and mitigation. Communities with weak institutional capacity may
struggle to develop and implement strategies to address climate change impacts, leading to
increased vulnerability.
5. Education and Access to Technology The levels of education of the communities provide
them better resilience during the time of hazard or disaster. Higher levels of education have a
direct linkage with a better job opportunity with an enhanced income level which can reduce
the social vulnerability. The working opportunity available after education may not much
depend upon the natural resources and hence are not affected by the climate related events
like droughts. Even the communities involved with occupations related to natural resources,
higher level of education may give them opportunity to take correct and informed decisions
as they may have a better understanding about the events and its consequences. The level of
education also provides them access to information through latest Information and
Communication Technologies (ICT) which may give better resilience and diminish the social
vulnerability as compared to communities having lower level of educational attainments.

Impacts of Social Vulnerability:

1. Health risks: Climate change can lead to increased health risks, including heat-related
illnesses, malnutrition, waterborne diseases, and mental health issues. Vulnerable
populations, such as the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions, are particularly
susceptible.
2. Displacement and migration: Climate change-induced disasters can force communities to
migrate or be displaced, leading to social, economic, and psychological challenges.
Displacement often exacerbates social inequalities and increases vulnerability.
3. Food and water insecurity: Changes in temperature and precipitation patterns can impact
agricultural productivity, leading to food shortages. Vulnerable communities are more likely
to experience food and water scarcity, exacerbating poverty and inequality.
4. Increased social inequalities: Climate change can worsen existing social inequalities, as
vulnerable populations bear the brunt of its impacts. This can lead to higher levels of poverty,
unemployment, and social unrest.

Addressing Social Vulnerability:

1. Equitable policies and governance: Governments and institutions should prioritize
vulnerable communities in climate change planning and policy-making processes. This
includes ensuring equitable access to resources, services, and decision-making platforms.
2. Enhancing adaptive capacity: Building the resilience of vulnerable communities through
capacity-building initiatives, education, and awareness programs can empower them to adapt
to climate change impacts.
3. Community participation: Engaging local communities in climate change adaptation and
mitigation efforts can lead to more effective and sustainable solutions. Involving
marginalized groups in decision-making processes can help address their specific needs and
concerns.
4. International cooperation: Global collaboration is essential to address social vulnerability
in climate change. Developed countries should provide financial

Social vulnerability analysis

it is one of the challenging tasks to analyse social vulnerability directly. This is because it
involves multiple factors and moreover there exists an interrelationship between these factors.

1. One of the popular methods for analysing social vulnerability is the Index
Method, where certain broad indicators and proxies are selected to construct
 an index for comparing the inter- and intra-level of social vulnerability within
the community. Here, it is worth to mention about the Social Vulnerability
Index (SoVI) developed by Susan L. Cutter et al. in 2003. Being a multi-
dimensional and scale dependent index, it could be applied across the spatial
units for assessing relative socio-economic and demographic characters to
measure the social vulnerability.
The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) published a report titled Social
Vulnerability Assessment Tools for Climate Change and DRR programming, 2017 which has
suggested tools for analysing the social vulnerability.
2. Community based method
The community-based method gives the central importance to the inputs given by the
communities and households or groups who have undergone and overcome the hazard or the
event, thus integrating the experiences gained by the community. This method is useful as in
most of the cases, the assessments are generally carried out by outsiders or experts, who
generally miss the authentic inputs from local people. Thus, involvement of the community
will improve the efficiency of the assessment process and can be more relevant for them who
are directly exposed to the risk in that particular area and may act as an input for adaptation
strategies. Another advantage of this method is that effective involvement of the community
raises their awareness towards the potential risk and motivate them for taking appropriate
coping mechanism.
The method involves various steps. The first step is to form a team for vulnerability
assessment from the representatives of the community. Data from such groups have been
collected by employing tools like questionnaire, interviews, cognitive mappings and other
field participatory process for identifying threats and about population which maybe socially
and physically vulnerable. The next step involved is integration of inputs from the
community for creating accessible and easily understandable vulnerability identification to
the contextual threat to the community so that appropriate strategy could be planned both at
local level and can also be incorporated at policy formulation level.
One of such community-based method has been proposed by the Care International named as
Climate Vulnerability and Capacity Analysis (CVCA) that has deep linkages with the
community. It was believed that through participation and knowledge sharing from the
community, transformation can be brought. In this analysis importance was given to context
specific investigations along with enhanced dialogues with the communities both at regional
and national levels. Besides, the analysis combined the prior existing knowledge of poverty
and vulnerability with the Disaster Risks Reduction (DRR). The CVCA has been useful in
vulnerability assessment across various scales.
3. Census and Other Existing Secondary Data
The census data and other secondary source data are generally authentic data which are
provided by the government or state agencies. The census data provides various
demographical parameters such as area wise total population, male and female
population, sex ratio, educational attainments, children (0-6 years), literacy, and
occupational status like agricultural workers, cultivators, non-workers and workforce in
households industries. Various indicators and proxies like sex ratio, dependency ratio,
percentage of marginalized communities, occupational profile, and rural- urban ratio can
be drawn from these available data that can be used in the construction of social
vulnerability index. In India, the census gives a district handbook for each district which
contains micro level both census and noncensus data from village level to community
block development level to district level which can be used for several demographical and
socio-economic characteristics of the communities while analysing the social
vulnerability at micro level (Census, 2011). Even the census data can be used for
supporting the primary field data while evaluating the social vulnerability.
When you have to analyse social vulnerability in reference to the climate change or
climate related hazard, then you may require meteorological data such as rainfall,
temperature, humidity, sunshine, etc. which can be obtained from the State
Meteorological Department. In India, the India Meteorological Department (IMD), Pune
provides the authentic data for research purpose. These data can be used for calculating
the change in pattern of rainfall and temperature, especially when analysing the
vulnerability in context to climate change.
Similarly, there are other secondary data sources which can provide various socio-
economic parameters of an area. These include Below Poverty line (BPL) Census,
District Outlines issued by Government Department of Economics and Statistics, Disaster
Management Plan, Report of Central Groundwater Board, National and State Action
Plans for Climate Change, National Communication to United Nations (NATCOM),
Reports of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Human Development Reports
(UNDP) and other National as well as International Publications can be used for
supporting the primary data for analysis of social vulnerability.
4. Contextual Analysis of Image and GIS Data
 The Geographical Information System and remote sensing data information have added
another dimension in vulnerability analysis. The information and images can now be
integrated with other models as well as approaches for assessing social vulnerability
across the spatial units and has also been useful tool to determine the pre and post
damages after the event. In one of the pilot project regarding the use of remote sensing
and GIS data in social vulnerability analysis has been discussed by Birkman and Wisner,
2006 in their book “Measuring the Unmeasurable- the challenge of vulnerability”. They
have highlighted the role and importance of the remote sensing in mapping the vulnerable
population for the disaster Tsunami in Sri Lanka. The mapping was done by German
Aero Space Centre and UNU-EHS using Rapid and multi dimension vulnerability
assessment. The analysis was based on the premise that vulnerability was linked with
certain infrastructure and housing structure as well as their proximity with the sea as well
as the earthquake hotspots. If these images were captured through satellite, it could be
compared with the ground level data for a checking the reliability. The satellite and GIS
data was used to classify the zones thematically, analyse the housing structures and
settlements and was used to compute the pre and post hazard scenario in combination
with other vulnerability proxies. The overall analysis depicted that remote sensing could
be of great help for assessing the impacts in terms of physical dimensions and losses
(Birkman and Wisner, 2006).
Similarly flood vulnerability has also been analysed by using GIS Data by various
researchers across the globe. In China, the vulnerability to flood hazard has been
examined (Gao et al. 2007) with the help of GIS in Dongting lake region. The GIS data
have been combined with analytical hierarchy techniques, that was used for assigning
weights to indicators that have significant impact on flood bearers (Gao et al., 2007).
Similarly, the vulnerability analysis for flood plains have been done in Ondo town of
Nigeria using the remote sensing and GIS images for generating digital elevation model
(DEM) and maps like slope map and risk analysis map by Oyinloye and Olamiju in year
2011. The authors were of the opinion that images from these technologies can be very
helpful in decision making with a strategy to reduce vulnerability in flood plains across
the globe. They used the open-source SPOT image which was processed through GIS
which was very useful in designing the maps and the digital elevation model (Oyinloye &
Olamiju, 2011).

3.Economic vulnerability
At its basic level, economic vulnerability to climate change is when a community lacks the
financial resources to prepare for the effects of climate change. A community that is
economically vulnerable is one that is ill-prepared for the effects of climate change because it
lacks the needed financial resources. Preparing a climate resilient society will require huge
investments in infrastructure, city planning, engineering sustainable energy sources, and
preparedness systems. From a global perspective, it is more likely that people living at or
below poverty will be affected the most by climate change and are thus the most vulnerable,
because they will have the least amount of resource dollars to invest in resiliency
infrastructure. They will also have the least amount of resource dollars for cleanup efforts
after more frequently occurring natural climate change related disasters.

Economic Vulnerability in Climate Change Climate change poses significant risks to the
global economy, with potential impacts ranging from extreme weather events to shifts in
agricultural productivity and disruptions in supply chains. Economic vulnerability refers to
the susceptibility of a country or region to these risks and the challenges it faces in adapting
to and mitigating the effects of climate change. Here is a detailed explanation of the concept
of economic vulnerability in the context of climate change.
Definition of Economic Vulnerability
Economic vulnerability refers to the degree to which a country or region is exposed to the
adverse impacts of climate change and its ability to cope with and recover from these
impacts. It encompasses various aspects, including the sensitivity of the economy to climate-
related risks, the capacity to adapt and mitigate these risks, and the resilience of the economic
systems in the face of climate shocks.
Factors Contributing to Economic Vulnerability
- Geographical location: Countries located in low-lying coastal areas or regions prone to
extreme weather events like hurricanes or droughts are more vulnerable to climate change
impacts.
- Economic structure: Economies heavily dependent on climate-sensitive sectors such as
agriculture, fisheries, and tourism are more susceptible to climate-related risks.
- Socioeconomic conditions: Poverty, inequality, and lack of access to resources and
infrastructure can exacerbate the vulnerability of communities and countries to climate
change.
- Governance and institutions: Weak governance, corruption, and inadequate policy
frameworks can hinder effective climate change adaptation and mitigation efforts, increasing
vulnerability.
Impacts of Economic Vulnerability
Economic losses: Climate change can lead to significant economic losses due to damage to
infrastructure, reduced agricultural productivity, increased healthcare costs, and disruptions in
supply chains.
1.The effect on growth and inflation
The overall aggregate effect of climate change on economic growth will most likely be
negative in the long run. Although there will be winners and losers from climate change at
varying levels of warming, the impact of rising temperatures will be widespread, in part due
to the financial, political and economic integration of the world’s economies. Global warming
will primarily influence economic growth through damage to property and infrastructure, lost
productivity, mass migration and security threats.
 Inflation is likely to rise as shortages emerge, particularly in agriculture
There will not only be a reduction in output, but an increase in the general price level as a
result of global warming. This leads us onto the possible inflationary effects of global
warming on the world economy. Agricultural yields are sensitive to weather conditions and
as our climate becomes ever more extreme, more frequent droughts may reduce crop yields in
areas where food production is vital. Higher global food prices will likely thus squeeze
consumers’ income in the process. We must acknowledge that these effects will be partially
offset as other regions becoming more suitable for crop production and new drought resistant
crops are developed. However, in aggregate, and as the level of warming becomes even
greater, food price inflation should rise. Rising inflation may also materialize through
reduced land availability. The surge in global temperatures may eventually cause some areas
of the world to become uninhabitable and with this will come mass migration. Alongside the
political and socioeconomic implications of these moves will be higher demand for an ever-
decreasing amount of land. In essence, the world’s population will be forced to live in an
increasingly concentrated space. In similar fashion to food inflation however, this effect will
also be moderated by some areas of land becoming more habitable.
 Energy costs to increase in the transition to renewables
Higher energy costs are also likely to boost inflation. As our climate becomes more extreme,
we are likely to demand greater energy to both cool our working and living environments
during the summer, and heat them when we experience harsher winters. Not only will energy
demand change, but supply may shrink as the efficiency of existing power stations is
compromised due to higher temperatures. Policy actions by governments to encourage a
transition to green energy may further contribute to energy inflation in the short- to medium-
term whereby taxes are placed on fossil fuel-derived electricity.
 Climate change risks are already pushing insurance costs higher
The insurance industry recognizes that it is likely to bear much of the risk of global warming.
Companies have already felt the force of extreme weather events on profi ts; from unseasonal
floods in the UK to Hurricane Katrina in the US, extreme weather-related damage to
properties has seen insurance companies pay out to cover these costs.
2.Regional effects
The effects of climate change will not be uniformly distributed across the globe and there are
likely to be winners and losers as the planet warms. Not only do many developing countries
have naturally warmer climates than those in the developed world, they also rely more
heavily on climate sensitive sectors such as agriculture, forestry and tourism. As temperatures
rise further, regions such as Africa will face declining crop yields and will struggle to
produce sufficient food for domestic consumption, while their major exports will likely fall in
volume. Developing countries may also be less likely to create drought resistant harvests
given the lack of research funding.
The increased frequency and severity of extreme weather will weigh on government budgets.
The aftermath of natural disasters often falls on authorities who are forced to spend vast
amounts on clear-up operations and healthcare costs that come with experiencing extreme
weather. Revenue reductions may also be experienced by countries heavily dependent on
tourism or on selling fi shing rights, for example (IMF, 2008).
The effects on the developing world are two-fold. Firstly, as developed countries face an
increasing strain on domestic budgets, fewer resources in the form of aid and economic
development funds will flow to developing countries. Secondly, the governments of these
nations will be forced to channel resources away from productive and growth-enhancing
projects towards countering the costs of extreme weather. Such effects will damage near-term
growth prospects. Furthermore, developing countries are likely to have less capacity to
rebuild. The time required to recover from natural disasters will be prolonged and if longer
than the frequency with which such disasters occur, many developing economies could
remain in a constant state of reconstruction (Hallegatte, Dumas, Hourcade, 2010).
Parts of Africa and Asia most at risk
Highly vulnerable regions in the emerging world include Sub-Saharan Africa and South and
South East Asia, according to the World Bank. In South Asia, cities such as Kolkata and
Mumbai will face increased flooding, warming temperatures and intense cyclones. Loss of
snow melt from the Himalayas will also reduce the flow of water into the Indus Ganges and
Brahmaputra basins. Meanwhile in South East Asia, Vietnam’s Mekong Delta, which
produces most of the country’s rice, is especially vulnerable to rising sea levels. For Sub
Saharan Africa, food security will be a major challenge due to droughts and shifts in rainfall.
Many developing nations are situated in low latitude countries and it is estimated that 80% of
the damages from climate change may be concentrated in these areas (Mendelsohn et al
2006). In contrast, northerly regions such as Canada, Russia and Scandinavia, may enjoy a
net benefit from modest levels of warming (Stern, 2006). Higher agricultural yields, lower
heating requirements and lower winter mortality rates are a handful of economic benefits
climate change may bring, although these benefits may diminish as warming continues.
The prediction that developing countries will be disproportionately affected is reinforced by
Standard and Poor’s research on the influence climate change will have on sovereign risk.
Recognizing that climate change is a global mega-trend impacting sovereign risk through
economic, fiscal and external performance, they find that lower-rated sovereigns appear most
exposed. They assess sovereign vulnerability on three measures: share of the population
living in coastal areas below five meters of altitude, the share of agriculture in national GDP
and a country score from the “vulnerability index” compiled by the Notre Dame University
Global Adaption Index. Such an index measures the degree to which a system is susceptible
to, and unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change. Based on these measures we
can interpret the results in part as the susceptibility of an economy to climate change. Figure
4 below summarizes the results on a world map. In line with much of the economic literature,
many developing nations appear most vulnerable to climate change during the remainder of
the current century.
3.Access to resources
Climate change can impact access to natural resources, ecosystems, land, and other assets.
4.Access to infrastructure
Climate change can impact access to basic infrastructure services like water, sanitation,
electricity, roads, and telecommunications.
5.Loss of income
Climate change can cause loss of income through the destruction of homes, loss of
agricultural yields, and impacts on food security.
6.Market transactions
Climate change can impact market transactions, which directly affect metrics like GDP or
inflation.
7.Non-market impacts
Climate change can have non-market impacts, like impacts on human health, biomes, and
ecosystem services. Additionally, this includes the following-
- Poverty and inequality: Vulnerable communities are often hit the hardest by climate change
impacts, exacerbating poverty and increasing inequality within and between countries.
- Migration and displacement: Climate-related events such as sea-level rise, droughts, and
floods can force people to migrate or be displaced, leading to social and economic
disruptions.
- Financial instability: Climate change risks can impact financial markets, insurance
industries, and investments, leading to increased volatility and uncertainty in the global
economy.
Some groups are more vulnerable to the economic impacts of climate change than others,
including:
 People living in poverty
These people are more likely to be affected by climate change because they have fewer
resources to invest in resiliency infrastructure.
 Marginalized people
These people have less control over resources and face difficulties in mitigating, adapting to,
and recovering from climate shocks.
 Women
Women face constraints on their adaptive capacity and resilience due to discriminatory
gender norms and limits on their resources.

Strategies to Reduce Economic Vulnerability

- Adaptation measures: Enhancing resilience and adaptive capacity through measures such as
improved infrastructure, climate-smart agriculture, and disaster risk reduction.
- Mitigation efforts: Reducing greenhouse gas emissions through the adoption of cleaner
technologies, renewable energy, and sustainable land use practices.
- International cooperation: Collaboration between countries, international organizations, and
financial institutions to support vulnerable nations in building climate resilience and
providing financial assistance for adaptation and mitigation efforts.
- Policy responses: Climate change calls for a collective effort from governments, firms,
shareholders and individuals to both adapt and implement measures to mitigate its effects. As
carbon dioxide emissions are the main culprit for global warming, any policy response must
effectively target reduced emissions. Since free markets fail to incorporate and price the
negative externality of global warming, government intervention is required to realign
resource allocation. Without public policy looking to change private sector behaviour,
economies run the risk of continuing to pollute to a point where it is too late and the
economic costs are catastrophic. Intergovernmental agreements that encompass all major
economies will be the most effective in tackling climate change. Without a collective policy
response, the efforts of only a handful of countries looking to reduce carbon dioxide
emissions will fall short of what is needed to make a material impact on a global level. We
touch upon some popular policy responses below. Decarbonizing the world’s energy supply
through a rapid energy transition will reduce the risks of climate change. The use of biofuels,
hydrogen and clean energy can speed up decarbonization alongside reducing demand through
energy efficiency measures. Governments may offer subsidies to green energy providers to
promote innovation and reduce the cost of energy from these sectors.
It is considered that the majority of proven coal, oil and gas reserves could be considered
“unburnable” if regulation limited temperature increases to 2°C. Among economists, it is
recognized that to effectively stem the production of carbon dioxide, a globally recognized
market-based approach is required. One of the most widely proposed measures is carbon
pricing. Placing a price on each tonne of carbon dioxide emitted, or distributing tradable
permits that license a stated level of carbon dioxide emissions, is believed to be an effective
measure to combat global warming. Economically speaking, this internalizes the negative
externality (in other words, ensures that the company/entity that is emitting the carbon
dioxide pays for the social costs) associated with burning fossil fuels. Nevertheless, this
method brings with it a host of questions primarily focused on determining appropriate
emission levels, pricing and implementation measures. To work successfully it also requires
global recognition. Since an estimated carbon price of $100 per tonne is believed to be
needed by 2030, few countries are willing to make their economies internationally
uncompetitive by introducing carbon pricing.

In conclusion, economic vulnerability in climate change refers to the susceptibility of

countries and regions to the impacts of climate change and their ability to adapt and mitigate
these risks. It is influenced by various factors and can have significant economic, social, and
environmental consequences. Addressing economic vulnerability requires a combination of
adaptation measures, mitigation efforts, international cooperation, and policy reforms to build
resilience and ensure a sustainable and inclusive future.

People who are more vulnerable

Climate change does not affect people within communities in the same way. It can have a
bigger impact on vulnerable groups such as women, the elderly, religious minorities and
refugees than on others.
 People living with disability. Climate impacts on disabled people have been identified
by activists and advocacy groups as well as through the UNHCR adopting a
resolution on climate change and the rights of people with disabilities.
 People living in poverty: Climate change disproportionally affects poor people in low-
income communities and developing countries around the world. Those in poverty
have a higher chance of experiencing the ill-effects of climate change, due to their
increased exposure and vulnerability. A 2020 World Bank paper estimated that
between 32 million to 132 million additional people will be pushed into extreme
poverty by 2030 due to climate change.
 Women: Climate change increases gender inequality. It reduces women's ability to be
financially independent, and has an overall negative impact on the social and political
rights of women. This is especially the case in economies that are heavily based on
agriculture.
 Indigenous peoples: Indigenous communities tend to rely more on the environment
for food and other necessities. This makes them more vulnerable to disturbances in
 ecosystems. Indigenous communities across the globe generally have bigger
economic disadvantages than non-indigenous communities. This is due to the
oppression they have experienced. These disadvantages include less access to
education and jobs and higher rates of poverty. All this makes them more vulnerable
to climate change.
 Children: The Lancet review on health and climate change lists children among the
worst-affected by global warming. Children are 14–44 percent more likely to die from
environmental factors.

Reducing vulnerability
Vulnerability can be reduced through climate change adaptation measures. For this
reason, vulnerability is often framed in dialogue with climate change adaptation.
Furthermore, measures that reduce poverty, gender inequality, bad governance and
violent conflict would also reduce vulnerability. And finally, vulnerability would be
reduced for everyone if decisive action on climate change was taken (climate change
mitigation) so that the effects of climate change are less severe.
1. Climate change adaptation
Climate change adaptation is the process of adjusting to the effects of climate change. These
can be both current or expected impacts. Adaptation aims to moderate or avoid harm for
people, and is usually done alongside climate change mitigation. It also aims to exploit
opportunities. Humans may also intervene to help adjustment for natural systems. There are
many adaptation strategies or options. They can help manage impacts and risks to people and
nature. The four types of adaptation actions are infrastructural, institutional, behavioural and
nature-based options. Some examples of these are building seawalls or inland flood defenses,
providing new insurance schemes, changing crop planting times or varieties, and installing
green roofs or green spaces. Adaptation can be reactive (responding to climate impacts as
they happen) or proactive (taking steps in anticipation of future climate change).
2. Climate resilience
Climate resilience is a concept to describe how well people or ecosystems are prepared to
bounce back from certain climate hazard events. The formal definition of the term is the
"capacity of social, economic and ecosystems to cope with a hazardous event or trend or
disturbance". For example, climate resilience can be the ability to recover from climate-
related shocks such as floods and droughts. Different actions can increase climate resilience
of communities and ecosystems to help them cope. They can help to keep systems working in
the face of external forces. For example, building a seawall to protect a coastal community
from flooding might help maintain existing ways of life there.
3.Climate justice
Climate justice is the idea that climate change is a result of unfair and unrepresentative
economic, social, and political systems. It also recognizes that the consequences of climate
change are not felt equally by everyone. Climate justice means finding solutions to the
climate crisis that not only reduce emissions or protect the natural world, but that do so in a
way which creates a fairer, more just and more equal world in the process.