Sustainable Population Development
in Bhutan
- Declining fertility rate
Demographic Situation
• Thousands of young people and middle
aged professionals leave for Australia and
other countries.
• Birth rate will decline substantially to 11
per thousand and the annual growth rate
will fall from the current level of 1 percent
to less than 0.3 percent in 2047.
• Bhutan needs at least 2.5 births per
woman according to the global standard
for population replacement.
Demographic situation
Fertility rate:
1.9: 2021 Below the replacement Economic
1.89: 2022 level of 2.1 Sustainability
1.86: 2023
Fertility
decline
Population Ethnic Sustainability
Decline
Out-
migration Population Projection: % of old-age
population (60 years and above) will National
increase from 5.8% in 2017 to 19% in 2047, Security
and to 27% by 2050
Policy environment
Long term policy and goals (13 FYP) to address fertility issues
Secondary Goals
Primary Goal
● By 2034, all Bhutanese have access to comprehensive social protection
By 2034, gap mechanisms and services across the life cycle, particularly for the most
between vulnerable.
preferred
● By 2029, Bhutan has an operational shock-responsive, inclusive, and
and actual
comprehensive social protection system
family size
reduced. ○ Sustainable population maintained
● By 2029, income of the bottom 40% quadrupled.
Current Government’s Focus
Develop a comprehensive “Fertility and Family Policy for Bhutan” to reverse the declining trend.
● Require creche centers for all workplaces
● Flexible working hours for working parents
● Support employment of domestic helpers for working parents
● For the birth of the third child and above, a cash incentive of Nu.10,000 per month will be paid for
three years
Should we ignore the fertility decline? - NO
Rapid fertility decline – a sign of unmet needs for
childbearing
Unmet needs for
childbearing
DHS since 2000. OECD. Female only, MIFS and TFR, Chad and Niger excluded.
Reasons for Declining TFR?
1. Higher level of education and more career opportunities for women has led them
to push marriage and childbearing so far off that they sometimes never materialize.
2. Negative image around childbearing
3. Increased access to contraception
4. Burdens;
• Added financial burden by childbearing
• Added care burden by childbearing
Negative image around marriage, childbirth, and
childbearing
o Social stigma in relation to divorce and marriage
o The small family, happy family campaign in the past
o Career promotion prevented by childbearing
o Negative/traumatic childbirth and early childbearing
experiences
Added financial burden by childbearing
❖ Increased general cost of living
❖ Costs added in relation to childcare, education, and
housing
❖ Lack of decent/stable job opportunities for young people
(including out-migration)
Added care burden by childbearing
➢ Difficulty in finding babysitters
➢ Childcare gap (parental leave and Early Childhood Care
and Development (ECCD) service)
➢ Lack of capacity and coverage of Creche and ECCD
centres
➢ Rigid working environments in relation to working hours
and parental leave
➢ Gender role at the private sphere
Recommendations
1. Offset the added financial and social challenges
of family formation
2. Offset some of the challenges of emigration by
supporting out-migrants and encouraging them to
consider return
3. Policy Advocacy
4. Labour and other policies reform
Offset the added financial and social challenges of family
formation by:
• further subsidising ECCD and other childcare services
• offset school extra-engagement costs against personal income tax
• providing all new parents with a ‘maternity package’
• Valuing all family forms equally, and giving equal (or enhanced) support
to more vulnerable groups, especially single-parent families
• Delivering ‘Child Development Accounts’ where parents are
incentivized (through start-up and matched government funding and tax
breaks) to save for their children’s future (e.g. education, skills
development etc)
• Increasing general access to assistive reproductive technology and
family/marital/reproductive counseling
Offset some of the challenges of emigration by supporting out-
migrants and encouraging them to consider return by:
• Maintaining close contact with the diaspora (through events and
programs organised by consular services)
• Employ labour attachés to support out-migrants deal with labour
abuses
• Ensure that costs associated with remittances are kept to a minimum
• Developing a more robust, evidence-based
policymaking and monitoring and evaluation ecosystem
through enhanced collection of disaggregated data
Policy Advocacy
National Campaign - “Positive Childbearing Experiences”
• Creating enabling environment for childbearing by
showing that the government is with you to aspire both
work and childbearing – promoting positive
childbearing experiences in all places in the country
• Gender role transformation at the private sphere
• Promoting diverse reproductive choices (e.g. LGBTQI++)
• Anti-discrimination for childbearing workers at
workplaces
Labour Policy Reforms
• Shared parental leave up to 12 months for the public sector, and up to 6 months for
the private sector as minimum (e.g. tax reduction for those implement the policy as an
incentive)
• Flexible working arrangement especially flexi working hours, part-time work/job-
share, and remote working modalities are encouraged as much as possible, depending
upon the nature of the workplace (all workplaces to submit their planning of flexi
working arrangements and shared openly)
• Trying, where possible, to ‘match-up’ the working day to the school/childcare day
through provisions, plus expanded engagement of pre- and post-school day engagements
• Anti-discrimination regulations for all age workers with or without disability
regardless of their gender orientation, and creating welcome atmosphere for childbearing
workers (e.g. performance rating for women coming back from parental leave)
• Relaxing the intake of in-coming foreign baby sitters and carers (although rules and
regulations to protect these workers need to be considered)
Probable Questions
1. Bhutan’s fertility rate has declining and currently stands at 1.8. This is
further aggravated by out-migration of the Bhutanese particularly those
in child bearing age. Given the small population, analyze its socio-
economic impacts.
2. The government has plans to improve the fertility rate as part of its
sustainable development plan in the 13th Plan. Suggest initiatives or
interventions to promote sustainable population development.
3. Analyse the reasons contributing to low births or declining fertility rate
in Bhutan.
