Tesla, Inc.: Supercharging Auto Sales: Exhibit 1
Tesla, Inc.: Supercharging Auto Sales: Exhibit 1
UV8062
Jun. 10, 2020
It was August 2019, and Henry Nugent woke up at 6:00 a.m. to go on a quick run before commuting to
downtown Atlanta for his job at a regional investment bank. Reading the news on his smartphone in bed,
Nugent froze when he saw the promotion he’d been waiting for: Tesla, Inc. (Tesla), was once again offering its
popular free unlimited Supercharging for life on its Model S and Model X electric cars (Exhibit 1). Nugent had
debated buying the Model X for months. He was attracted to the roomy SUV, the falcon-wing doors, the car’s
immediate torque response, the panoramic glass, the regenerative breaking, and its smooth, silent ride. Nugent
also liked the concept of reducing emissions.1 But the base price at $85,000, without including the $7,000 for
the full self-driving capability, had made him think twice. He had also seen the reports that Models X and S
sales were sluggish after the recent introduction of Model 3.
In its early days, Tesla had offered free unlimited Supercharging as part of the package for buying one of
its vehicles. By May 2017, the free Supercharging was used for a referral promotion where all existing Tesla
owners could gift up to five friends free Supercharging. But in September 2018, Elon Musk, the cofounder and
CEO of Tesla, ended the popular promotion with the explanation, “Sorry, it’s not really sustainable at volume
production & doesn’t incent optimal behavior. We probably should have ended this earlier.”2 Instead, buyers
of Model X and Model S were offered 1,000 free miles and then 5,000 free miles of charging. Tesla was also
dangling cheaper insurance on its vehicles, along with the promise of a self-driving software upgrade.
With the return of free unlimited charging, at least for a while, Nugent’s interest peaked. How much was
he really saving? Was free Supercharging the best way for Tesla to kick-start sales of Models X and S?
A Brief History
Tesla was founded in 2003 as Tesla Motors, Inc., by engineers Martin Eberhard and Marc Tarpenning, and
named after Serbian inventor Nikola Tesla. Early funding rounds came from a variety of sources, but Musk,
cofounder of PayPal, contributed more than $30 million personally in the venture and became Tesla’s chairman
beginning in 2004 (also earning a cofounder title).3 In 2008, Musk became the CEO, and Tesla launched the
Roadster, its first electric car. The Roadster, which Musk helped design at a detailed level, achieved an
1 Generating the electricity used by the EV contributes to CO2 emissions, but less than half the 404g of CO2 per mile of a typical ICE car, and with
emissions trending down over time. “Greenhouse Gas Emissions from a Typical Passenger Vehicle,” US Environmental Protection Agency,
https://www.epa.gov/greenvehicles/greenhouse-gas-emissions-typical-passenger-vehicle (accessed Oct. 4, 2019).
2 Elon Musk (@elonmusk), “Sorry, it’s not really sustainable at volume production & doesn’t incent optimal behavior. We probably should have
ended this earlier.,” Twitter, September 16, 2018, 5:13 p.m., https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1041480103539011584?lang=en (accessed Sept. 12,
2019).
3 Barbara A. Schreiber and Erik Gregersen, “Tesla, Inc.,” Encyclopedia Britannica, July 25, 2019, https://www.britannica.com/topic/Tesla-Motors
This case was prepared by Manel Baucells, Associate Professor of Business Administration, and Stephen E. Maiden (MBA ’01). It was prepared as a
basis for class discussion rather than to illustrate effective or ineffective handling of an administrative situation. Copyright 2020 by the University of
Virginia Darden School Foundation, Charlottesville, VA. All rights reserved. To order copies, send an email to [email protected]. No part
of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, used in a spreadsheet, or transmitted in any form or by any means—electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording,
or otherwise—without the permission of the Darden School Foundation. Our goal is to publish materials of the highest quality, so please submit any errata to
[email protected].
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unprecedented 245 miles on a single charge. The car’s performance was also groundbreaking. With a lightweight
carbon fiber body and a lithium-ion powered electric motor, the Roadster accelerated like a gasoline-powered
sports car. The problem was the price. At $109,000, the market was small, even with the benefit of the $7,500
federal tax credit.
After raising $226 million in a 2010 IPO, Tesla set to work on its next vehicle: the Model S sedan. Launched
in 2012, the Model S offered three different battery options and placed the batteries under the floor, allowing
for additional storage space and better handling. The 100 kWh battery pack had a range of 325 miles, and newer
versions had a range of 370 miles due to powertrain and battery improvements. The S also offered an early
form of semiautonomous driving called “autopilot.” The Roadster was discontinued in 2012. In 2015 Tesla
released the Model X as a “crossover” vehicle sporting SUV features built on a car chassis. The X seated up to
seven and had a maximum battery range of 295 miles, less than the Model S due to less efficient aerodynamics.
Both the S and X remained stubbornly expensive though. It wasn’t until 2017 that a more reasonably priced
vehicle was offered, when Tesla began production of the Model 3, a four-door sedan for a much larger market,
with a base price of $40,000 for a range of 250 miles, or $45,000 for a range of 320 miles. Tesla had a stated
intention to introduce additional electric vehicles (EVs) in coming years including a crossover called Model Y,
its Semi truck, a pickup “cybertruck,” and a new version of the Roadster.4
Tesla first began building 480-volt Supercharging stations in the United States and Europe in 2012.
Superchargers were touted as mostly solar-powered systems that would be installed at high-traffic corridors
across the United States and throughout Europe and Asia to rapidly recharge Tesla car batteries. Musk said that
the solar systems would put more power back into the power grid than the cars would use, and that Models S
or X owners would always be able to charge at the stations for free.5 The solar-powered Superchargers used
solar technology from SolarCity (acquired by Tesla in 2016).
Charging stations had remained a persistent question for EV makers. It was the chicken or the egg problem.
Which came first? The electric car driver or the charging stations? Consumers were reluctant to leave traditional
combustion engines if there weren’t ample ways to charge the vehicle, but constructing a fast-charging
infrastructure was expensive, particularly for a newer entrant. A number of independent charging companies
such as ChargePoint, EVgo, EVBox, Blink, and G2Mobility sprung up around the opportunity.6 ChargePoint
had more than 66,000 charging spots accessible to the public. EVgo claimed more than 1,200 chargers
nationwide.7 While branded as “DC fast,”8 these stations would typically charge 40 miles worth of energy in
one hour. In this same time, Tesla Supercharging station could load 200 miles. These charging speeds applied
to filling up to 80% of capacity, and filling the last 20% was much slower. Charging speeds varied quite a bit
from station to station, and depended also on the occupancy of the station. The traditional car makers were
giving signs of wanting to create their own networks. VW formed Electrify America in 2017, with plans to
spend $2 billion on building stations in the United States, as part of its settlement with the US government over
its diesel-emissions cheating scandal. The same year, Volkswagen, Daimler, Ford, and BMW teamed up to
create Ionity to build charging stations across Europe to encourage long-distance travel. Hyundai also partnered
with Kia to build an electric charging system.
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Tesla decided early on to build the charging infrastructure itself. By mid-2019, Tesla had about
1,600 Supercharger stations in the United States, with approximately 14,000 Supercharging spots across its
network (Exhibit 3). The Supercharger stations typically had between 6 and 30 spots each, and more stations
were being added monthly. During heavy travel periods like the holidays, lines formed at Supercharger stations.
The Supercharger stations worked only for Tesla cars, and were not compatible with other manufacturer EVs
even if they were fitted with the correct Type 2 socket. A credit card on file was charged automatically to those
Tesla owners without free Supercharging privileges.
Tesla had the largest network in the United States with a level of support unmatched by any other
automaker or DC fast-charging provider.9 Of course, 1,600 electric car fast-charging stations were still a far cry
from the more than 106,00010 gas stations in the United States. By and large, EV owners (including Tesla
owners without free Supercharging) powered their car nightly at home (usually cheaper per kWh than a typical
commercial charging station, or a Supercharging station). In contrast, Tesla owners with free Supercharging
were adamant about using the free service, even if that meant spending one hour or more in the Supercharger
station (or the mall nearby) every few days.
New Model X and Model S owners received a mobile charging cord and three adapters: one for a standard
wall outlet, one for a higher-powered 240-volt wall outlet, and one for the Supercharger station.11 The standard
wall outlet only charged about 3 miles of range per hour, so charging 250 miles would take 80 hours. The 240-
volt outlet (typical for a clothes dryer or large appliance) could fully charge an X or S within 11 hours. The total
cost to install such a 240-volt wall outlet at home was approximately $1,500. Individuals living in apartments
with common parking under the building faced obstacles when it came to using parking outlets (billed to the
community). Creating a dedicated 240-volt outlet connected to an electric meter could cost as much as $3,500,
plus the hassle of obtaining homeowners association (HOA) permissions.
Superchargers were 480-volt DC fast-charging stations that could charge a Model S or X to the
recommended 80% within one hour. In March 2019, Tesla launched the newest version of its Supercharger
station, called the V3, that would effectively cut in half the average charging time.12 EV enthusiasts thought the
world class charging speed—based on technology in which liquid cooled the cable—could better compete with
the roughly five minutes it took to fill a typical car’s gasoline tank, removing one of the stubborn hurdles to
EV adoption. Only the newer Tesla models could use the V3 as of August 2019.
While the company still had almost 80% of the US EV market (Exhibit 4) and 30% in Europe, competition
was growing fierce,13 with plenty of new EV models on the horizon (Exhibit 5). The Jaguar iPace and the Audi
E-Tron were solid European competitors, and upcoming launches of the VW ID3 and Porsche Taycan were
around the corner.
9 Matt Pressman, “Is Free Supercharging Worth It? A Guide to Tesla’s Supercharging Network,” Evannex, April 4, 2019,
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Since the first Model 3 rolled off the assembly line in July 2017, customers had been attracted to its mass
market price point and compelling technology. The success of the Model 3 lifted Tesla, but confirmed the
suspicion that Model 3 would cannibalize Models’ S and X sales (Exhibit 6). This was unfortunate for Tesla’s
financials, because S and X yielded the highest margins. In August 2019, in an effort to boost sales of S and X,
Tesla brought back its free Supercharging for life on its two high-end models. The deal was nontransferable if
the car was sold from its original owner. Tesla also discounted the base price of X and S, thus lowering the
gross margin from about 29% in the third quarter of 2018 to about 19% in 2019.14 Such sudden price changes
were not uncommon in the history of Tesla, although buyers who had recently bought at a more expensive
price were often upset.
While Nugent would be enjoying his free Supercharging, most existing Tesla owners would be stuck paying
the market rate on a per kWh basis. Current rates were $0.26 per kWh in a Supercharging station, and $0.13
per kWh at a typical home.15 For somebody driving 250 miles a week, this translated into a fuel cost of $17 a
week (at a Superchargingstation) or $8 (at home). In contrast, the fuel cost for an internal combustion engine
(ICE) vehicle of comparable standing using 25 miles per gallon, at $2.90 per gallon, resulted in a weekly cost of
$29. Most Tesla drivers without free Supercharging privileges would plug in the car at home at night, and use
the Supercharging stations during long trips.
Nugent wondered if he was being foolish placing so much weight on free Supercharging. After all, the
Model X had a base cost of $85,000. Fully loaded, it could go for double that amount. A full charge should cost
less than a tank of gas, and usually Tesla owners only charged enough to get to the next Supercharger or to
their destination where a residential charging station could be accessed. If Nugent only took a handful of road
trips per year, how much was he really saving? Why did the offer of free Supercharger miles for life move him
so much?
And what did the offer actually cost Tesla? After some digging, Nugent found that Musk had said that
installing solar-powered Supercharging stations cost an average of $300,000, and nonsolar ones cost about
$150,000.16 On the variable side, Nugent guessed that Tesla was paying close to the residential cost of $0.13
per kWh to supply power at its stations. With the company still on the threshold of cash flow positivity and
profitability, should Tesla really be giving away free Supercharging? The company had stated previously that
Supercharging “will never be a profit center for Tesla.”17 But was it wiser for the company to offer just 1,000
or 5,000 miles, or two years of free charging?
Nugent wondered what else might improve sales of the Models X and S. Autopilot capabilities (i.e., being
able to follow a lane and adjust the speed to traffic) were now included in all models. Enhanced autopilot,
branded as full self-driving (FSD) capability, cost an additional $7,000. Musk was claiming that by the end of
2019, its software upgrade would make Tesla cars capable of driving themselves, but only for those owners that
had purchased FSD. Musk also made clear that FSD would only get more expensive in the future, to make the
14 Emmanuel Rosner and Edison Yu, “Management Meeting Takeaways,” Deutsche Bank, September 16, 2019, 3.
15 Source for estimated Supercharger cost and gas cost is Tesla website, https://www.tesla.com/Supercharger (accessed Sept. 13, 2019). As per the
website, “Gasoline cost assumes 21 MPG for Model X and Model S and 28 MPG for Model 3 at $2.85 per gallon. Cost may vary depending on the
vehicle location, configuration, battery age and condition, driving style and operation, and environmental and climate conditions.”
16 Sebastian Blanco, “Tesla Supercharger Network Goes Nationwide, Gets Quicker,” Autoblog, May 30, 2013,
https://www.autoblog.com/2013/05/30/tesla-Supercharger-network-goes-nationwide-gets-faster-w-video/ (accessed Sept. 23, 2019).
17 Fred Lambert, “Tesla Increases Cost of Using Its Supercharger Stations, Still Says It ‘Will Never Be a Profit Center,’” Electrek, March 11, 2018,
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$7,000 appear as a good investment. In the past, Musk had made similar claims, and the reality so far was that
enhanced autopilot only did a few things in addition to what standard autopilot offered (e.g., change lanes, or
summon the car from short distances). Thus, while there was general consensus that vehicles would one day
drive themselves, and that Tesla was a frontrunner in this race, most analysts predicted a gradual process that
could take years. The $7,000 was more a bet on the future, as well as a hedge. But was it a good idea to have
customers bet and hedge, as opposed to charging a fair price for what enhanced autopilot did today relative to
autopilot? And if FSD were to become a reality, how much would customers be willing to pay for it?
The cost of travel time while driving would significantly drop once the responsibility for driving was no
longer on the passenger, freeing the passenger to engage in work or recreational activities. To get a handle on
the value of the FSD option today required a significant number of assumptions. First, Nugent needed to
assume some cost of time for manually driving a vehicle. Common values used in the literature ranged from
$15 per hour to $35 per hour, with it being likely that Tesla owners would be on the higher end of that range.
Currently, the self-driving capabilities of a Tesla saved only a fraction of this cost, say between $2 and $5 per
hour. Over the next 10 years, the savings would increase to say between $10 and $20 per hour. Would this
gradual reduction in cost of time justify the current $7,000 for the FSD option? In addition to the benefits of
less costly travel, Nugent needed to consider the potential for additional passive revenue due to the ability to
rent your vehicle to ride-sharing services. But vacating the driver’s seat entirely was unlikely to occur in the next
5 years, or perhaps even the next 10 years.
What about insurance? Tesla was launching a “competitively priced insurance offering designed to provide
Tesla owners with up to 20 percent lower rates, and in some cases as much as 30 percent.”18 Tesla claimed to
be able to offer cheaper insurance because of the reams of data each car produced. Such data allowed Tesla to
bypass the “adverse selection” problem in the insurance market, where premiums were calculated on averages,
and did not take the driver’s abilities and peculiarities into account. Moreover, Tesla’s safety features such as
autopilot contributed to reducing accidents. Tesla insurance was to be introduced first in California, and then
expanded to other states in the future.
Electric cars also saved on maintenance cost: They did not need a $50 oil change every 10,000 miles, their
use of regenerative breaking meant that brake pads lasted basically forever, and there was no risk of a costly
transmission replacement because they had no transmission, or other major engine problems. A potential risk,
however, was the possible degradation of the battery pack, to the point that it would hold less range after
driving say 100,000 miles (or 160,000 Km). Data showed that this long-term loss would be no more than 10%
for the a very high percentage of their batteries (Exhibit 7).
Nugent also noticed that lithium-ion battery prices had been in a long-term decline due to an increase in
their production, and the cost decline was about 20% a year (Exhibit 8). According to Exhibit 8, the standard
100 kWh battery pack in Models X and S would cost Tesla $37,300 in 2015, and only $17,600 in 2018.
With all these considerations in mind, should Nuget postpone the purchase of an EV, or buy a Tesla now
and eliminate the risk of losing free Supercharging privileges or having to pay for an even more expensive FSD
package in the future?
18 Sean O’Kane, “Tesla Launches Car Insurance Offering in California,” Verge, August 28, 2019,
https://www.theverge.com/2019/8/28/20837265/tesla-car-insurance-california-autopilot-discount (accessed Sept. 24, 2019).
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Exhibit 1
Tesla, Inc.: Supercharging Auto Sales
Tesla Models
Model X
Source: “Tesla Model X,” posted to public domain under Creative Source: “Tesla Model X Front View,” posted to public domain under
Commons (CC0 1.0) by “Guillaume Vachey,” December 23, 2018, Creative Commons (CC BY 2.0) by “Don McCullough,” January 8, 2015,
https://www.flickr.com/photos/152930510@N02/39912982353/ https://www.flickr.com/photos/69214385@N04/16042113157/
(accessed May 19, 2020). (accessed May 19, 2020).
Model S
Source: “Tesla Model S,” posted to public domain under Creative Source: “Tesla Model S,” posted to public domain under Creative
Commons (CC BY 2.0) by “nakhon100,” July 3, 2014, Commons (CC BY 2.0) by “cdorobek,” February 25, 2013,
https://www.flickr.com/photos/8058098@N07/14384152460/ https://www.flickr.com/photos/cdorobek/8507594145/ (accessed
(accessed May 19, 2020). May 19, 2020).
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Exhibit 1 (continued)
Tesla Models
Model 3
Source: “Tesla Model 3,” posted to public domain under Creative Source: “Tesla Model 3,” posted to public domain under Creative
Commons (CC BY 2.0) by “Brian Doyle,” April 6, 2018, Commons (CC BY 2.0) by “priceman 141,” June 19, 2018,
https://www.flickr.com/photos/humdoyle/40564571044/ (accessed https://www.flickr.com/photos/115310862@N04/42082730225/
May 19, 2020). (accessed May 19, 2020).
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Exhibit 2
Tesla, Inc.: Supercharging Auto Sales
Tesla Supercharger
Source: “Tesla Supercharger,” posted to public domain under Source: “Tesla Supercharger,” posted to public domain under Creative Commons
Creative Commons (CC0 1.0) by “Open Grid Scheduler / Grid (CC0 1.0) by “Open Grid Scheduler / Grid Engine,” June 30, 2018,
Engine,” June 30, 2018, https://www.flickr.com/photos/opengridscheduler/29226473908/ (accessed
https://www.flickr.com/photos/opengridscheduler/43048715 May 19, 2020).
212/ (accessed May 19, 2020).
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Exhibit 3
Tesla, Inc.: Supercharging Auto Sales
Tesla North America Supercharger Network
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Exhibit 4
Tesla, Inc.: Supercharging Auto Sales
Tesla Share of US Battery EV Market
250 90%
78% 79%
80%
200 70%
60%
52%
150
45% 50%
38%
35% 40%
100 207
24% 30%
17% 116
50 102 20%
72 80
68 10%
3% 49
10 15
0 0%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 1H19
Data source: Dan Levy and Robert Moon, “US Autos & Auto Parts – EV Competition Heating Up, but for Now Still Awaiting the True
Tesla Competitor,” Credit Suisse, September 9, 2019, 3.
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Exhibit 5
Tesla, Inc.: Supercharging Auto Sales
Key Battery EV Models, United States and Europe
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Exhibit 6
Tesla, Inc.: Supercharging Auto Sales
Tesla Vehicle Deliveries by Model
Vehicle
Deliveries FY2016 FY2017 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19
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Exhibit 7
Tesla, Inc.: Supercharging Auto Sales
Tesla Model S/X Mileage versus Remaining Battery Capacity
Data source: Fred Lambert, “Tesla Battery Degradation at Less than 10% After Over 160,000 Miles, According to Latest Data,”
Electrek, April 14, 2018, https://electrek.co/2018/04/14/tesla-battery-degradation-data/ (accessed May 19, 2020).
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Exhibit 8
Tesla, Inc.: Supercharging Auto Sales
Lithium-Ion Battery Price Survey Results: Volume-Weighted Average
$1,000
$899
$800
$707
$650
$/kWh
$577
$600
$373
$400
$288
$214
$176
$200
$‐
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Data source: Logan Goldie-Scot, “A Behind the Scenes Take on Lithium-Ion Battery Prices,” Bloomberg NEF, March 5, 2019.
This document is authorized for use only by Sevde Ozoglu in Strategic Management of Technology - Fall, 2024 taught by BENJAMIN LUNZER, Touro College from Sep 2024 to Dec 2024.