P Statistics Syllabus Course Descriptior AP Statistics is a rigorous, college level non-calculus based course intended to be equivalent of a one semester, introductory college statistics course. This course is guided by the AP Statistics syllabus. In this course, students develop strategies for collecting, organi i, analyzing, and drawing conclusions from data. Students design, administer, and tabulate results from surveys and experiments. Probability and simulations aid students in constricting models for chance phenomena. Sampling distributions provide the logical structure for confidence intervals and hypothe: tests, Students use a TI-84+ graphing calculator, Minitab statistical software, and Web- based java applets to investigate statistical concepts. To develop effective statistical communication skills, students are required to prepare frequent written and oral analyses of real data. This course will prepare students for the College Board Advanced Placement Statistics Exam which is given in May. Students can earn college credit for this course, The amount of credit given is bused on the score received and varies among college and universities Course Comments: Since the potential exists to eam college credit, it is expected that students take this course seriously. Students must be active participants since the “best” learning occurs when students are actively involved in the learning process. AP Statistics will be a “hands-on”, practical applications oriented elass, Computers and calculators will be used extensively to allow students to investigate and explore statistical concepts. Effective communication will be developed through regular written analysis of real data. Course Goal: In AP Statistics, students are expected to lea: To produce convincing oral and written statistical arguments, using appropriate terminolo, of applied settings. When and how to use technology to aid them in solving statistical problems Essential techniques for producing data (surveys, experiments, observational studies, simulations analyzing data (graphical & numerical summaries), modeling data (probability, random variable: sampling distributions), and drawing conclusions from data (inference procedures ~ confidence intervals and significance tests) ‘To become critical consumers of published statistical results by heightening their awareness of ways in which statistics can be improperly used to mislead, confuse, of distort the truth. ; ina variety Textbook: ‘Yates, Daniel S., Moore, David S. and Starnes, Darren S., The Practice of Statistics, 5" edition, WH Freeman and Co. 2002 ISBN: 0-7167-4773-1 Supplemental Resources for Instruction: Bock. Stats: Modeling the World. New York: Addison-Wesley, 2015. ISBN 13:9780321854018 Bohan. Ainsco’s AP Statistics: Preparing for the Advanced Placement Examination. New York: Amsco, 2000. ISBN 1-536765-527-0.© Hinders. 5 Steps to a 5: AP Sta ISBN 0-07-141278-6. ‘* Levine-Wissing, R. & Thiel, D. The Best Test Preparation for AP Statisties, 3rd. ‘+ Watkins. Statistics in Action. California: Key Curriculum Press, 2008, Selected AP Statistics Examination Free Response questions are used throughout the course. Calculators: Graphing calculators are allowed on the AP Statistics exam and will be used extensively in this class. Each student needs to have a graphing calculator. Ifa student does not have their own calculator the school will supply a TL-84+ if needed. Course Outline: An Introduc ni to Statistics (2 days) * First Day Activities © What is data? * Classify variables as categorical or quantitative. Chapter 1: Exploring Data (10 days) Displaying Categorical Data Bar Graphs Decide best type of graph based on type of data. Displaying Graphical Distributions of Data Histograms and Dot plots Stem and Leaf, time plots 5 number summary’Box plots Describing the shape of a distribution Histograms on a TI-84 Describing Distributions Numerically Mean and median Standard deviation and variance Frequency and cumulative distributions and tables Outliers Boxplots Chapter 2:_ The Normal Distributions (10 days) Describing Location Percentiles ‘Cumulative Relative Frequency Graphs Z-scores Density Curves and Normal Distributions Density Curves ‘Normal Distribution 68-95 ~99,7 Rule istics. New York: McGraw-Hill, 2004,Standard Normal Calculations * Standard Normal; Z-score © Zable Assessing Normality Chapter 3: Examining Bivariate Relationships (10 days) Scatterplots * Introduction to Examining Relationships + Scatter plots Outliers Correlation © Facts about Correlation + Use of technology to calculate correlation + Association does not imply Causation Least Squared Regression ‘¢ Facts about Least Squared Regression Calculate and Interpret Residuals Influential Points, Outliers Predicting values in Patterns Chapter 4: Designing Studies (12 days) Designing Samples © Population vs Sample Writing a survey Sampling Methods Advantages and Disadvantages of each Sampling Method Random Samples Types of Bias Designing Experiments © Observation vs Experimental © Confounding Variables * Randomization in the Design * Placebo Effect «Types of Bias Scope of Inference © Data Ethics © Calculator Simulations Chapter 5: Probability: The Study of Randomness (10 days) Introduction to Probability © Randomness Sample Space + Simulations Probability Rules * With Replacement vs Without Replacement Addition Rule Multiplication Rule Complement Rule‘Tree Diagrams ‘+ Independent Events © Conditional Probability ‘+ Multiplication Rule Chapter 6: Random Variables (10 days) Introduction to Random Variables © Discrete Random Variables © Continuous Random Variables © Expected Value * Standard Deviation ‘Mean and Variance of Random Var © Mean © = Standard Deviation: * Normal Random Variables Binomial and Geometric Random Variables © Mean * Standard Deviation © Interpret Chapter 7: Sampling Distributions (10 days) Parameters and Statisties ‘+ Sample vs Population ‘+ Sampling Distribution ‘+ Sample Size Sampling Proportions ‘© Mean and Standard Deviation of Sampling Distribution © Nommal Distribution ‘Sampling Mean © Central Limit Theorem Chapter 8: Estimation (10 Days) Introduction to Inference Introduction to Confidence Intervals © Confidence Intervals Estimate Population Proportion * Random, 10%, and Large Count Conditions * Calculating C% Confidence Interval © Sample Size Confidence Intervals for Mean © T-distributions © Critical Values © Margin of Error Chapter 9: Test of Significance (10 days) Significance Test + The Reasoning of a Significance Test «Hypothesis TestsStatistical Significance P-values ‘Type I Error Type I Error Large Sample Tests * Calculator Usage for Confidence Intervals = Margin of Error + Making Sense of Statistical Significance Inference for Mean ‘* Tests for a Population Mean Tests from Confidence Intervals ‘Using Significance Tests Chapter 10: Comparing Two Populations (10 days) ‘Comparing Two Proportions Shape, Center, Spread of Sampling Distributions © Conditions * Confidence Intervals ‘Comparing two means Assumptions for comparing two means © Two-sample t procedures Chapter 11: Inference for Tables: Chi-Square Procedures (10 days) ‘Test for Goodness of Fit © Properties of the chi-square distributions * Conducting inference by simulation + Degrees of Freedom © Using the chi-square table Inference for two-way tables ‘= Expected counts + The chi-square test © Chi-square statistic, ‘+ Using technology to calculate chi-square (Minitab and Graphing calculator) Using the chi-square table Uses of the chi-square test Chapter 12: Inference for Regression (10 days) Inference for Regression © Confidence Intervals + Inference about Prediction * Checking Regression Assumptions Review for AP Exam (10 days) ‘© Practice AP Exams + FRAPPY! + Remaining previous AP questions and practice grading using the grading rubricks from exams + Remaining multiple-choice questions from Barrons and other sample exams Post AP Exam: (approximately 15 days)Final Pr Purpose: The purpose of this project is for you to actually do statistics. You are to formulate a statistical question, design a study to answer the question, conduct the study, collect the data, analyze the data, and use statistical inference to answer questions. You are going to do it all!! Topics: You may do your study on any topic, but you must be able to include all 6 steps listed above. Make it interesting and note that degree of difficulty is part of the grade. Group Siz ‘You may work alone or with a partner for this project. Proposal (25 points): To get your project approved, you must be able to demonstrate how your study will meet the requirements of the project. In other words, you need to clearly and completely communicate your statistical question, your explanatory and response variables, the test/interval you will use to analyze the results, and how you will collect the data so the conditions for inference will be satisfied. You must also make sure that your study will be safe and ethical if you are using human subjects. The proposal should be typed. If your proposal isn’t approved, you must resubmit the proposal for partial credit until it is approved. Poster (75 points): ‘The key to a good statistical poster is communication and organization. Make sure all components of the poster are focused on answering the question of interest and that statistical vocabulary is used correctly. ‘The poster should include: Title (in the form of a question) ‘+ Introduction, In the introduction you should discuss what question you are trying to answer, why you chose this topic, what your hypotheses are, and how you will analyze your data + Data Collection. In this section you will describe how you obtained your data. Be specific. © Graphs, Summary Statistics and the Raw Data (if numerical). Make sure the graphs are well labeled, easy to compare, and help answer the question of interest. You should include a brief discussion of the graphs and interpretations of the summary statistics, ‘+ Analysis. In this section, identify the inference procedure you used along with the test statistic and P- value and/or confidence interval. Also, discuss how you know that your inference procedure is valid * Conelusion. In this section, you will state your conclusion. You should also discuss any possible errors or limitations to your conclusion, what you could do to improve the study next time, and any other critical reflections. + Live action pictures of your data collection in progress. Presentation: You will be required to give a 5 minute oral presentation to the class,Final Project Rul Final Prajece T= Complete Ta Sabetandal = Developing | _1= Miia [T= Describes the context ofc | + Titroduces the context | » Tnvoduces the | » Brielly desenbes [research ofthe rsearch and has |” context of the the context of Hosa clearly stated question | aspecifiequestion of | research and hasa | the research | oFinterest, interest | specific question of ntroduction | « Clearly defines the parameter | « Has correct parameter’ | interest OR has of interest and states correct | hypotheses OR has question of interes hhypoeses (fr tests) appropriate difiety | and parameter + Question of interest is oF lnypotheses appropriate dificuly, 7 Method of data collection’s |» Method of data + Method of data [+ Some evidense eaely desribed collection is clearly collection is of daa * Includes appropriate described deseribad collection fon | emdomization Some efforcis mideto | « Some effort is made Pata Callection |, Describes efforts w reduce | incorporate principles | to incorporate bias, variability, confounding | of goeddata collection | principles of good Quantity of data collected is | + Quantity of data is ata eolecion| sppropria= appropriate Appropriate gaps are “Appropriate grapheare | + Graphs and + Grape ar included included summary statistes | summary 1 Graphs are nest, clearly Graphs ae neat clearly | are included statistics are Graphsand | Iabeled, and easy to compare |" labeled, and easy t0 includ Summary | « Appropriate summary compare Statisties |” satsties are included “Appropriate summary ‘+ Summary statisties are ‘sastes are included iseussed and comely interpreted > Comet inference prossiure | » Comat inforsnce Correct inference |» Tnerenee Ixchosen procedure is chosen procedureisehosen |” procedure is ‘+ Useof inference procedure is | « Lacks justification, | « Test statisio- attempted Justified lacks interpretation, or | valueor confidence Analysis | * Testststiy value or ‘makes calculation iteral is confidence interval is enor caleulated corsctly calculated correctly « Puvalusor confidence mera is interpreted comrectly = Uses Pxalacteonfiaence Makesa comet 7 Makesaparally |» Makes ® ineral to correctly answer | conclusion correct conclusion |” conclision question of interest Discusses what {suchas accepting 4 Discusses what inferences |” inferences are ult Conclusions | are appropriate based on appropriate + Shows some study desian Shows some evidence ‘+ Shows good evidence of ‘ofeiialretietion stitial reflestion discusses possible errors, limitations, altemate explanations. et} Clear, holistic understanding |» Clear, halstic 7 Tosser snot mall |» Communication pase ofthe project understanding ofthe |” done or and organization Preeeral | Poster is well orgunized,ncat | — project communication is | are very poor ermeenaton! | and easy ead Statistical vocabulary» | poor Statistical vocabulary is sod | used correctly | conesty Poster is unorganized 0° [+ Poser s visually appealing | isnt visually appealingree AP ! STATISTICS Coursé Description _ Effective Fall 2010The College Board ‘The College Board is a not-for-profit membership association whose mission is to connect students ‘to college success and opportunity. Founded in 1900, the College Board is vomposed of more than 5:700 schools, colleges, universities and othor educational organizations. Bach year, the College Board serves seven million students and their parents, 23,000 high schools, and 3,800 ccolisges through major programs and services in college readiness, college admission, guidance, assessment, financial aid, and enrollment, Among its widely recognized programs are the SAT*, the PSATINMSOT', the Advanced Placement Program® (AP®), SpringBoard® and ACCUPLACER®. ‘The College Board is committed to the principles of exosllenc2 and equity, and that commitment ‘embodied in all of ts programs, services, activities and concerns. For further information, visit waw.collegeboard com. ‘The College Board and the Advanced Placement Progtam encourage teachets, AP Coordinators and school administrators to make equitable access @ guiding principle for their AP programs, "The Collage Board is committed to the principle that all studants deserve an opportunity to participate in rigorous and academically challenging courses and programs. All students who are willing to agcept the challenge ofa rigorous academic curriculum should be considered for admission to AP courses. The Boattl encourages the elimination of barriers that restrict access to AP courses for students from ethnic, racial and socioeconomic groups that have been waditionally lundorrepresented in the AP Program, Schools should make every elfotL to ensure that theit AP clagsee toflact the diversity of their student population. ‘9 2010 THe Ceoge Bron, Coleg Boats, ACCUPLACER, Advaccon Pica Shs acen'ago ate ronal tedemaaa the Caloge Bas. PSATUNMSCT ia rogissted taser of th Cols Board and Navonaftrt Sek Urahip Csparton, Auer roduc aed exvece may be Wodorarks oe tsipective over Parma ro ussColinge Road meterale may bo roqvctel on at ety colepeaserdcomtanyebpe Mm rogtm, AP AP Cental SAT SpeingBoatd ardContents ‘Welcome to the AP Program. . AP Course Audit. ... AP Development Committees AP Reading. AP Exam Scores... Credit and Placement for AP S Setting Credit and Placement Pol res... AP Statistics 2.2... Introduction ‘The Course Student Selection ‘Teaching the Course Course Content Overview ‘Topic Outline ‘The Use of Technology Formulas and Tables Descriptive Statistics . Probability Inferential Statistics ‘The Exam Mulliple-Choice Questions... Answers to Multiple Choice Questions . Free Response Qi Scoring of Fr tesponse Questions Teacher Support .. AP Central (apcentral.collegeboard.com).. Additional Resources.........Welcome to the AP° Program AP" is a rigorous academic program built on the commitment, passion and hard work of students and educators from bath secondary schools and higher education, With more than 30 courses in a wide variety of subject areas, AP provides willing and academically prepared high school students with the opportunity to study and learn at the college level ‘Through AP courses, talented and dedicated AP teachers help students develop and apply the skill 's and content knowledge they will need later in college. Each. AP course is modeled upon a comparable college course, and college and university faculty play a vital role in ensuring that AP courses align with college-level standards, For example, through the AP Course Audit, AP teachers submit their syllabi for review and approval by college faculty. Only courses using syllabi that meet or exceed the college-level curricular and resource requirements for each AP course are authorized to carry the “AP” label, AP courses culminate in a suite of college-level assessments developed and scored by college and university faculty members as well as experienced AP teachers. AP Exams are an essential part of the AP experience, enabling students to demonstrate their mastery of college-level course work. Strong performance on AP Exams is rewarded by colleges and universities worldwide. More than 90 percent of four-year colleges and universities in the United States grant students credit, placement or both on the basis of successful AP Exam scores. But performing well on an AP Exam ‘means more than just the successful completion of a course; tis the gateway to success in college. Research consistently shows that students who score a 3 or higher typically experience greater academic success in college and improved graduation rates than their non-AP student peers, AP Course Audit ‘The intent of the AP Course Audit is to provide secondary and higher education constituents with the assurance that an “AP” designation on a stucent’s transcript is credible, meaning the AP Program has authorized a course that has met or exceeded the curricular requirements and classroom resources that demonstrate the academic rigor of a comparable college course, To receive authorization from the College Board to label a course “AP” teachers must participate in the AP Course Audit. Courses authorized to use the “AP” designation are listed in the AP Course Ledger made available to colleges and universities each fall. Its the school's responsibility to ensure that its AP Course Ledger entry accurately reflects the AP courses offered within each academic year, ‘The AP Program unequivocally supports the principle that each individual school ‘must develop its own curriculum for courses labeled “AP” Rather than mandating any fone curriculum for AP courses, the AP Course Audit instead provides each AP teacher with a set of expectations that college and secondary school faculty nationwide have established for college-level courses. AP teachers are encouraged to develop or ‘maintain their own curriculum that either includes or exceeds each of these expectations; such courses will be authorized to use the “AP” designation, Credit for the success of AP courses belongs to the individual schools and teachers that create powerful, locally designed AP curricula, (220107 Caege Sur al the Calis Bet ae nega, 1Complete information about the AP Course Audit is available at www.collegeboard com/apcourseaudit. AP Development Committees [An AP Development Committee is a group of nationally renowned subject-matter experts in a particular discipline that includes professionals in secondary and postsecondary education as well as from professional organizations. These experts ensure that AP courses and exams reflect the most up-to-date information available, as belitting a collegelevel course, and that student proficiency is assessed properly. To find a list of current AP Development Committee members, please visit: apcentral.collegebuard.com/developmentcommittees, AP Reading AP Exams — with the exception of AP Studio Art, which is a portfolio ass ‘consist of dozens of multiple-choice questions scored by machine, and free-response questions scored at the annual AP Reading by thousands of college faculty and expert AP teachers, AP Reader faculty who teach the corre both significant professional development and the opportunity to network with colleagues. For more information about the AP Reading, or to apply to serve as a Reader, visit apcentral.collegeboard.com/readers. AP Exam Scores ‘The Readers! scores on the free-response questions are combined with the results of the computerscored multiple-choice questions; the weighted raw scores are summed to give a composite score. The composite score is then converted to a score on AP's S:point scale, While colleges and universities are responsible for setting their own credit and placement policies, AP scores signify how qualified students are to receive college credit or placement: AP SCORE QUALIFICATION 5 Extremely well qualified 4 Well qualified 3 Qualified Possibly qualified No recommendation AP Exam scores of § are equivalent to A grades in the corresponding college cours [AP Exam scores of 4 are equivalent to grades of A~, Be and B in college. AP scores of 3 are equivalent to grades of B-, C+ and C in college. Credit and Placement for AP Scores Thousands of two- and fouryear colleges and universities grant credit, placement or both for qualifying AP Exam scores because these scores represent a level of 2 ‘2 amt0 7 Coe Gar Wal the aapachievement equivalent to that of students who have taken the comparable college course. This college-level equivalency is ensured through several AP Program processes: Jaculty are involved in course and exam development and other AP Currently, college faculty: + Serve as chairs and members of the committees that develop the Course Descriptions and exams for each AP course. + Are responsible for standard setling and are involved in the evaluation of student responses at the annual AP Reading. The Chief Reader for each AP exam is a college faculty member. + Lead professional development seminars for new and experienced AP teachers. + Serve as the senior reviewers in the annual AP Course Audit, ensuring AP teachers’ syllabi meet the curriculum guidelines for college-level courses. + AP courses and exams are reviewed and updated regularly based on the results of curriculum surveys at up to 200 colleges and universities, collaborations among the College Board and key educational and disciplinary organizations, and the interactions of committee members with professional organizations in their discipline. * Periodic college comparability studies are undertaken in which the performance of college students on a selection of AP Exam questions is compared with that of AP ‘students to ensure that grades earned by college sludents are aligned with scores AP students earn on the exam, For more information about the role of colleges and universities in the AP Program, visit the Value of AP to Colleges and Universities section of the College Board website at hlip://professionals.collezeboard.com/higher-ed/placement/ap. Setting Credit and Placement Policies for AP Scores ‘The College Board website for education professionals has a section specifically for colleges and universities that provides guidance in setting AP credit and placement policies. Visit http:/ professionals.collegeboard.com/higher-ed/placement/ap/policy. Additional resources, including links to AP research studies, released exam questions and sample student responses at varying levels of achievement for each AP Exam are also available, To view student sampies and scoring guidelines, visit http://apcentral ccollegeboard.com/ape /public/exam /exam_questions/index htt To review recent validity research studies, visit hltp://profes ccom/data-reportsresearch/cb/ap, ‘The “AP Credit Policy Info" online search tool provides links to credit and placement policies at more than 1,000 colleges and universities, This tool helps students find the credit hours and/or advanced placement they may receive for quallying exam scores within each AP subject at a specified institution. AP Credit Policy Info is available at www.collegeboard.com/ap/creditpolicy. If the information for your in listed or is incorrect, please contact [email protected]. sionals.collegeboard (010 Cee Hor ne Cale Dado th Wir eget cm 3AP Statistics INTRODUCTION ‘The Advanced Placement Program offers a course description and exam in statistics to secondary school students who wish to complete studies equivalent to 2 on semester, introductory, non-calculus-based, college course in statistics. Statistics and mathematics educators who serve as members of the AP Statistics Development Committee have prepared the Course Description and exam to reflect the content ofa typical introductory college course in statistics. The exam is representative of such a course and therefore is considered appropriate for the measurement of skills and knowledge in the field of introductory statisties. In colleges and universities, the number of students who take a statistics course is almost as large as the number of students who take a calculus course. A July 2002 article in the Chronicle of Higher Education reports that the enrollment in statisties ‘courses from 1990 to 2000 increased by 45 percent — one testament to the growth, ‘of statistics in those institutions, An introductory statistics course, similar to the AP Statisties course, is typically required for majors such as social sciences, health sciences and business, Every semester about 236,000 college and university students enroll in an introductory statistics course offered by a mathematies or stat department, In addition, a lange number of students enroll in an introductory statistics course offered by other departments. Science, engineering and mathematics majors usually take an upper-level calculus-based course in stalisties, for which the AP Siatisties course is effective preparation. THE COURSE ‘The purpose of the AP course in statistics isto introduce students to the major concepts and tools for collecting, analyzing and drawing conclusions from data, Students are exposed lo four broad conceptual themes: 1. Exploring Data: Describing patterns and departures from patterns 2, Sampling and Experimentation: Planning and conducting a study 3. Anticipating Patterns: Exploring random phenomena using probability and simulation 4, Statistical Inference: Estimating population parameters and testing hypotheses Students who successfully complete the course and exam may receive cred advanced placement or both for a one-semester introductory college statistics course, This does not necessarily imply that the high school course should be one semester long. Each high school needs to determine the length of its AP Statistics course to best serve the needs of its students. Statistics, ike some other AP courses, could be effectively studied in a one-semester, a two-trimester or a one-year course. Most schools, however, offer it as a one-year course. 4 ‘sro the Gaye Bar Ve he CaStudent Selection ‘The College Board and the Advanced Placement Program encourage te Ses AP Coordinators and school administrators to make equitable access a gui efor their AP programs, The College Board is committed tothe principle that all students deserve an opportunity to participate in rigorous and academically challenging courses and programs. All students who are willing to accept the challenge of a rigorous academic curriculum should be considered for admission to AP courses. The Board encourages the elimination of barriers that restrict access to AP courses for students from ethnic, racial and sacioecanomic groups that have been traditionally underrepresented in the AP Program. Schools should make every effort, to ensure that their AP classes reflect the diversity of their student population. ‘The AP Statistics course is an excellent option for any secondary school student who has successfully completed a second-year course in algebra and who possesses sufficient mathematical maturity and quantitative reasoning ability. Because second-year algebra is the prerequisite course, AP Statistics usually will be taken in either the junior or senior year. The decisions about whether to take AP Statistics and when to take it depend on a student’s plans: * Students planning to take a science course in their senior year will benefit greatly from taking AP Statistics in their junior year, * For students who would otherwise take no mathematics in their senior year, AP Statistics allows them to continue to develop their quantitative skills, n college should is lake AP Statistics ‘+ Students who wish to leave open the option of taking calculus include precalculus in their high school program and perha concurrently with precalculus. Students with the appropriate mathematical background are encouraged (o take both AP Slatisties and AP Calculus in high school Students who take the AP Statistics course are strongly encouraged to take the Teaching the Course ‘The AP Statistics course lends itself naturally to a mode of teaching that engages students in constructing their own knowledge. For example, students working individually or in small groups can plan and periorm data collection and analyses, where the teacher serves in the role of a consultant, rather than a director. This approach gives students ample opportunity to think through problems, make decisions and share questions and conclusions with other students as well as with the teacher. Important components of the course should include the use of technology, projects and laboratories, cooperative group problem-solving, and writing, as a part of concept-oriented instruction and assessment, This approach to teaching AP Statistics will allow students (o build interdisciplinary connections with other subjects and with their world out‘The AP Statistics course depends heavily on the availability of technology suitable for the interactive, investigative aspects of data analysis. Therefore, schools should make every effort to provide sludents and teachers easy access to computers to facilitate the teaching and learning of statistics. Providing instructional information and educational opportunities for teachers is ‘an important component of the AP Program. The College Board offers workshops, summer courses and institutes for teachers in all AP courses, Further information about these and other training opportunities may be obtained at AP Central (apcentral.collegeboard.com) and from your College Board regional office (contact information is on the inside back cover) The Teachers’ Resources section of AP Central offers reviews of textbooks, articles, websites anc other teaching resources. The electronic discussion groups (EDGs) accessible through AP Central also provide a ‘moderated forum for exchanging ideas, insights and practices among members of the AP professional community. the following publications provide some insight into the philosophy of course. Cobb, George, “Teaching Statisties: More Data, Less Lecturing.” 1992. In Heeding the Call for Change: Suggestions for Curricular Action, ed. Lynn Arthur, ian of America, To order MAA publications call 800-331-1622 or go to www.naa.org Gordon, Florence and Sheldon, eds. 1992. Statistics for the Twenty-First Century, MAA Notes No. 26, Washington, D.C: Mathematical Association of America. Moore, Thomas, ed. 2000. Teaching Statistics: Resources for Undergraduate Instructors, MAA Notes Vol. 52, Washington, D.C Mathematical Asso of Ameri National Council of Teachers of Mathematics. 2003. Principles and Standards for School Mathematics, 3° ed, Reston, Va.: National Council of Teachers of Mathematics. wiwnctm.org. Course Content Overview ‘The topies for AP Statistics are divided into four major themes: exploratory analysis, (20-30 percent of the exam), planning and conducting a study (1015 percent of the exam), probability (20-30 percent of the exam), and statistical inference (30-40 percent of the exam). L. Exploratory analysis of data makes use of graphical and numerical techniques to study patterns and departures from patteras. in examining distributions of data, students should be able to detect important characteristics, such as shape, location, variability and unusual values. From careful observations of patterns in data, students can generate conjectures about relationships among variables. The notion of how one variable may be associated with another permeates almost all of statistics, from simple comparisons of proportions through linear regression. The dillerence between association and causation ‘must accompany this conceptual development throughout. 6 ‘tone cage ae he eg a he es egeanhcuU1, Data must be collected according to a well-developed plan if valid information is to be obtained. If data are to be collected to provide an answer to a question of interest, a careful plan must be developed. Both the type of analysis that is appropriate and the nature of conclusions that can be drawn from that analysis depend in a critical way on how the data was collected. Collecting data in a reasonable way, through either sampling or experimentation, is an essential slep in the data analysis process, IIL. Probability is the tool used for anticipating what the distribution of data should look like under a given model. Random phenomena are not haphazard: they display an order that emerges only in the long run and is described by a distribution, ‘The mathematical description of variation is central ta statistics, The probability required for statistical inference is not primarily axiomatic or combinatorial but is oriented toward using probability distributions to describe data, IV. Statistical inference guides the selection of appropriate models. Models and data eract in statistical work: models are used to draw conclusions from data, while the data are allowed to criticize and even falsify the model through inferential and diagnostic methods. Inference from data can be thought of as the process of selecting a reasonable model, including a statement in probability Janguage, of how confident one can be about the selection, TOPIC OUTLINE Following is an outline of the major topics covered by the AP Statistics Exam, The ordering here is intended to define the scope of the course but not necessarily the sequence. The percentages in parentheses for each content area indicate the coverage for that content area in the exam, L. Exploring Data: Describing. patterns and departures from patterns (20%-30%) Exploratory analysis of data makes use of graphical and numerical techniques to study patterns and departures from patterns. Emphasis should be placed on interpreting information from graphical and numerical displays and summaries. A. Constructing and interpreting graphical displays of distributions of univariate data (dotplot, stemplot, histogram, cumulative frequency plot) 1, Center and spread 2, Clusters and gaps 3. Outliers and other unusual features distributions of univariate data 1, Measuring center: median, mean 2. Measuring spread: range, interquartile range, standard deviation 3. Measuring pos standardized scores (z-scores) 4, Using boxplots 5. The effect of changing units on summary measures0. C. Comparing distributions of univariate data (otplots, back-to-back stemplots, paraliel boxplots) 1. Comparing center and spread: within group, between group variation 2, Comparing clusters and gaps 3. Comparing outliers and other unusual features 4. Comparing shapes D, Exploring bivariate data 1. Analyzing patterns in scatterplots 2. Correlation and linearity 3. Least-squares regression line 4. Residual plots, outliers and influential points 5. ‘Transformations to achieve linearity: logarithmic and power transformations E. Exploring categorical data 1, Frequeney tables and bar charts 2. Marginal and joint frequencies for two-way tables 3. Conditional relative frequencies and association 4. Comparing distributions using bar charts, Sampling and Experimentation: Planning and conducting a study (10%-15%) Data must be collected according to a well-developed plan if valid information on a conjecture is to be obtained. This plan includes clarifying the question and deciding upon a method of data collection and analysis. A, Overview of methods of data collection 1. Census, 2. Sample survey 3. Experiment 4. Observational study B. Planning and conducting surveys 1. Characteristics of a welldesigned and well-conducted survey 2. Populations, samples and random selection 3, Sources of bias in sampling and surveys 4. Sampling methods, including simple random sampling, stratified random, sampling and cluster sampling C. Planning and conducting experiments 1. Characteristics of a well-desisgned and well-conducted experiment 2, Treatments, control groups, experimental uals, random assignments, and replication 3, Sources of bias and confounding, including placebo effect and blinding 4, Completely randomized design 5, Randomized block design, including matched pairs design D. Generalizability of results and types of conclusions that can be drawn from observational studies, experiments and surveys,nticipating Patterns: Exploring random phenomena using probability and simulation (20%-30%) Probability is the tool used for anticipating what the distribution of data should ook like under a given model. A, Probability 1. Interpreting probability, including lonye-run relative frequency interpretation 2. “Law of Large Numbers" concept 3. Addition rule, multiplication rule, conditional probability and independence 4, Discrete random variables and their probability distributions, including binomial and geometric 5. Simulation of random behavior and probability distributions 6. Mean (expected value) and standard deviation of a random variable, and linear transformation of a random variable B. Combining independent random variables 1. Notion of independence versus dependence 2, Mean and standard deviation for sums and differences of independent random variables C. The normal distribution 1, Properties of the normal distrib 2. Using tables of the normal distribution 3. The normal distribution as a model for measurements D. Sampling distributions 1. Sampling distribution of a sample proportion 2. Sampling distribution of a sample mean 3. Central Limit Theorem 4. Sampling distribution ofa difference between two independent sample proportions 5. Sampling distribution of a difference between two independent sample means 6, Simulation of sampling 7. distribution 8. Chi-square d IV, Statistical Inference: hypotheses (30%—40%) Statistical inference guides the selection of appropriate models. butions iribution 'stimating population parameters and testing A. Estimation (point estimators and confidence intervals) 1, Estimating population parameters and margins of error 2. Properties of point estimators, including unbiasedness and variability 3, Logic of confidence intervals, meaning of confidence level and confidence intervals, and properties of confidence intervals 4. Large sample confidence interval for a proportion 5. Large sample confidence interval for a difference between two proportions. ‘amie Cong Sor. ete Cte Bard thee mene ngnoasa 9