Introduction to Probability Theory (Stat 201)

Assignment (1)
Fall 2024

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• Due Saturday,19th , 2024. In the tutorial.
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• The assignment is in 4 pages including the cover page.
Stat 201 Assignment 1 - P a g e 1 Summer 2023

Question 1:
Given that 𝑃(𝐴) = 0.9 , 𝑃(𝐵) = 0.8 and 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 0.75. Find

(i) 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) (ii) 𝑃(𝐴 − 𝐵) (iii) 𝑃(𝐴𝑐 ∩ 𝐵 𝑐 )

(iv) 𝑃(𝐴𝑐 ∪ 𝐵 𝑐 ) (v) 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 𝑐 ) (vi) 𝑃(𝐴𝑐 ∩ 𝐵)

Question 2:
An MP3 player contains 60 songs: 30 rock, 15 jazz, and 15 blues. The player is set on random
play, so songs are played randomly and can be repeated. The duration of 20 rock songs, 10 jazz
songs, and 8 blues songs is longer than 3 minutes. The duration of the other songs is less than 3
minutes. We play four songs. Find the probability of each of the following events
(a) The four songs are all jazz;
(b) Among the four songs, none is rock;
(c) The first song is a rock song or takes longer than 3 minutes;
(d) If the first song took more than 3 minutes, what is the probability it was a rock song?

Question 3:
Two items be chosen at random from a lot containing 12 items of which 4 are defective. Let
A: event that both items are defective.
B: event that both items are non-defective.
C: event that at least one item is defective.
Find (i) 𝑃(𝐴) (ii) 𝑃(𝐵) (iii) 𝑃(𝐶)

Question 4:
A father, mother, 2 boys and 3 girls are asked to line up for a photograph. Determine the number
of ways they can line up if
(a) There are no restrictions;
(b) The parents stand together.

Question 5:
(a) How many distinct permutations can be made from the letters of the word 'bookkeeper'?
(b) How many different ten-digit numerals can be written using all of the following ten digits:
1,4,3,4,3,8,4,3,1,3

Question 6:
A standard deck of 52 cards contains 4 aces. Suppose we choose a random ordering. Compute the
following
(a) The probability that all of the top 4 cards in the deck are aces;
(b) The probability that none of the top 4 cards in the deck is an ace.
Question 7:
A local postal carrier distributes first-class letters, advertisements, and magazines. For a particular
day, she spread the following numbers of each type of item:
Delivered First-class Ads Magazines
to letters
Home 325 406 203
Business 732 1021 97
Stat 201 Assignment 1 - P a g e 2 Summer 2023

If an item of mail is selected at random, find these probabilities:

(a) The item went to a home;
(b) The item was an ad, or it went to a business;
(c) The item was a first-class letter, or it went to a home.
Question 8:
An urn contains 5 red, 10 black and 3 white marbles. If 3 marbles are drawn without
replacement, what is the probability of obtaining:

(i) 1 black? (ii) at most 1 white?

(iii) 3 of the same color? (iv) at least 1 white?

Question 9:
A computer password consists of eight characters (repeating characters in passwords is allowed).
(a) How many different passwords are possible if each character may be any lowercase letter
or digit?
(b) How many different passwords are possible if each character may be any lowercase letter
or digit, and at least one character must be a digit?
(c) A computer system requires that passwords contain at least one digit. Suppose eight
characters are generated at random, and each is equally likely to be any of the 26 letters or
10 digits. What is the probability that a valid password will be generated?

Question 10:
It is known from experience that in a particular industry, 60 percent of all labor-management
disputes are over wages, 15 percent are over working conditions, and 25 percent are over fringe
issues. Also, 45 percent of the disputes over wages are resolved without strikes, 70 percent of the
disputes over working conditions are resolved without strikes, and 40 percent of the disputes over
fringe issues are resolved without strikes.
(a) What is the probability that a labor-management dispute in this industry will be resolved
without a strike?
(b) If a labor-management dispute in this industry is resolved without a strike, what is the
probability it was over wages?

Question 11:
While watching a game of Champions League football in a cafe in Manchester, you observe
someone supporting Manchester United. What is the probability that he was born within 25 miles
of Manchester? Assume that:
• The probability that a randomly selected person in a typical local cafe environment is born
within 25 miles of Manchester is 1/20
• The chance that a person born within 25 miles of Manchester supports United is 7/10, and
• The probability that a person not born within 25 miles of Manchester supports United with
a probability of 1/10.

Question 12:
A device has a sensor connected to an alarm system. The sensor triggers with a probability of 0.95
if dangerous conditions exist on a given day and with a probability of 0.005 if conditions are
normal during the day. Days with dangerous conditions occur with a probability of y 0.005. Given
the above:
(a) What is the probability of a false alarm? I.e. the probability that conditions are normal
when the alarm system triggers?
Stat 201 Assignment 1 - P a g e 3 Summer 2023

(b) What is the probability of an unidentified critical condition, i.e. the probability that
conditions are dangerous when the system does not trigger?

Question 13:
Given that 𝑃(𝐴) = 0.5 and 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 0.8. Find 𝑃(𝐵) if

(i) 𝐴 and 𝐵 are mutually exclusive. (ii) 𝐴 and 𝐵 are independent.

(iii) 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵) = 0.4. (iv) 𝐴 is a subset of 𝐵.