Jimma University

College of Agriculture and Veterinary Medicine

Department of Horticulture and Plant Science

Economic Implications of Climate Change on Agriculture:

Opportunities and Challenges
Current Topic

Submitted to Department of Horticulture and Plant Science, College of Agriculture and

Veterinary Medicine, Jimma University, in Fulfillment of the Course Current Topics in
Agronomy (Agrn 611)

By: MotumaGerbaba

Program: MSc in Agronomy, Year II

Submitted to the course instructor, Dr. Zeleke W.

March, 2024

Jimma,Ethiopia
TABLE OF CONTENTS

Contents Page
TABLE OF CONTENTS.................................................................................................................I

LIST OF TABLES..........................................................................................................................II

LIST OF FIGURES.......................................................................................................................III

LIST OF ABBREVIATION AND ACRONOMY........................................................................IV

ABSTRACT....................................................................................................................................V

1. INTRODUCTION....................................................................................................................1

2. ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRICULTURE.................4

2.1. Climate Change and Agriculture.......................................................................................4

2.2. The relationship and degree of elasticity between climate and agriculture......................5

2.3. Climatic variables and highlights of its economic implications for agriculture...............6

2.4. Economic challenges of climate change on agriculture....................................................8

2.5. Specific challenges faced by agriculture.........................................................................11

2.6. Measuring the economic impact of climate change on agriculture................................20

2.7. Agriculture opportunities against climate change...........................................................22

3. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION.......................................................................................24

4. FUTURE LINE OF WORK...................................................................................................25

REFERENCES..............................................................................................................................26

I
LIST OF TABLES

Table 1: Productivity shock due to climate change and variability on rice and wheat crop
production by 2030........................................................................................................................13
Table 2: Effects of climate change on land use and livelihood systems of the poor.....................16

II
LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1: Climate change impact on agriculture..............................................................................9

Figure 2: Flow of the climate change impact on the agricultural sector.......................................10
Figure 3: Potential impacts of global warming on the agricultural sector.....................................11

III
LIST OF ABBREVIATION AND ACRONOMY

UV Ultra Violet
IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

ECFF Environment & Coffee Forest Forum

ITC International Trade Centre

CaNaSTA Crop Niche Selection for Tropical Agriculture

GCMs General Circulation Models

FAO Food and Agriculture Organization

IV
ABSTRACT

Global warming is the most serious environmental threat of the 21st century. Extreme changes in
global temperature over the last few decades have caused devastating natural disasters have
immensely impacted on the agricultural sector as agricultural production is highly dependent on
weather, climate and water availability, and is adversely affected by weather-and climate related
disasters. This review paper summarizes the recent studies focused on (a) understanding and
measuring the effect of climate change on the agricultural sector and (b) recent inventions and
adaptations to cope up with the negative effects of climate change. The paper attempts to review
how climate and agriculture is interrelated. It illuminates the vulnerability of the agricultural
sector that depends highly on the climatic variables, like rainfall and temperatures. The review
include the effects and implications of climate change on land use and livelihood systems, crops
and cropping patterns, animals and animal production systems, and plantation crops.
Adaptation and mitigation options and opportunities include: adjustment of cropping calendar
and patterns; changes in the management and farming practices; use of heat-resistant varieties;
diversified farming; intercropping, crop rotation, utilization of southern oscillation index
designing cropping strategy; implementation of index-based insurance; development of early
warning systems; improvement of irrigation efficiency; integration of animals with annual and
tree crops systems; development of food-feed systems; nutrient management and soil fertility;
improved and sustainable crop-animal systems; appropriate economic incentives, subsidies,
pricing and taxes. The exploration of climatic variations in this paper reveals the estimated
economic costs of climate change on agricultural productivity of different regions and also gives
an insight into how these climatic challenges at present and future can be best tackled in order
to maximize agricultural output which in turn is the backbone of food sustainability of the nation
worldwide.

Keywords: Land use, Pests, Temperature, Crop production, Yield

V
 1. INTRODUCTION

Currently, the combination of the rapidly changing economic environment, unbridled

competition for natural resources, and the economic crisis have posed several challenges for
agricultural and food companies (Zhu et al., 2021). The growth of competition and the
dynamically changing external environment are becoming increasingly difficult to deal with. The
ability to respond in a timely manner to changing environmental impacts and regulations is
essential. Agriculture is arguably one of the sectors which is most damaged by climate change.
The food industry and the agricultural sector make a significant contribution to climate change,
but are also particularly vulnerable to its effects (Baoet al., 2022).

Climate change refers to changes beyond the average atmospheric condition that are caused both
by natural factors such as the orbit of earth’s revolution, volcanic activities and crustal
movements and by artificial factors such as the increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases
and aerosol. Climate change by global warming, which refers to the average increase in global
temperature, has become a megatrend that will lead to significant global changes in the future
(Bettet al., 2019).

Global warming not only causes a change in average temperature and precipitation but also
increases the frequency of floods, droughts, heat waves, and the intensity of typhoons and
hurricanes following the change in temperature and precipitation patterns(Arunratet al.,
2018).The impacts of climate change are also shown in various other forms throughout the
world, including the rise of sea level, decrease in glaciers, northward movement of plant habitats,
changes in animal habitats, rise of ocean temperature, shortened winter and early arrival of
spring. As the acceleration of global warming affects not only ecological systems but also human
life, it has become an important issue both nationally and internationally (Ebi and Loladze,
2019).

Global Climate change has an adverse impact on production in particular effects on economy a
leading factor affecting, especially, rainfall crops yield. It is likely to exacerbate the demand for
irrigation water (Adams etal, 2017). CO2 increase and crop production: Carbon dioxide is a
principle resource for plant growth as such as, the ongoing increase in its conversation.
1
According emerging as one of the most serious threats that humanity may ever face hence it has
recently become a pressing issue in various development environment and political forums at the
National, Regional and International levels. Many Regional summits worldwide have dedicated
discussion sessions on climate change based on the recognition that the global climate change
has an adverse impact on a nation’s economy in general, and agricultural production in particular
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2022).

UzmaHanif, (2019) stated that climate change impacts the agrarian economies in
multidimensional forms, because of their dependence upon the vagaries of nature. The ultimate
climate change determines the paths and level of development in the long term. Climate change
has raised serious concerns for developing countries to face tremendous social, environmental
and economic impacts. As the change in climate is closely linked to food security and poverty of
a vast majority of any country’s population, many developing countries are dependent mainly on
agricultural sector making it highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Agriculture
forms the primary sector of any agro-based economy and Mathieu Ouedraogo (2016) rightly
mentioned that the activities of the secondary and tertiary sectors depend to a large extent on the
activities of the primary sector, for example in the case of cotton and grain production, which is
processed and transported by the secondary and tertiary sectors. The primary sector’s activities
thus have a ripple effect on the rest of the economy. The whole GDP of any nation develops
according to the rhythm of the primary sector(Baoet al., 2022).

Climate change affects food quantity (through direct effects on yields) and food quality, water
availability and quality, the presence of pests, diseases and pollination. The available evidence
indicates that climate change is already affecting food security and agriculture in a way that
makes it more difficult to eradicate famine and starvation. Famine is especially serious in
countries where agricultural systems are more sensitive to precipitation and sudden changes in
temperature and where there is a high proportion of households with incomes strongly dependent
on agriculture (Ripple et al. 2019). It is becoming increasingly difficult to sustainably feed
humanity in adequate quantities and quality. These difficulties are partly due to human actions
that have been carried out to date. The 150-year phase of rapid economic expansion and the
resulting increase in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have globally raised temperatures by 1 °C
on average, compared to the pre-industrial period. It is expected that with the current rate, the

2
average global warming between 2030 and 2050 is likely to reach 1.5 °C. Heavy rainfall and
drought are increasingly likely to occur in the same area (Masson-Delmotteet al. 2018).

The impact of climate change on agriculture in developing countries is day by day increasing. As
a consequence many countries whose economies are largely based on weather sensitive
agriculture are vulnerable to climate change. This vulnerability has been demonstrated by the
devastating effects of recent flooding and various prolonged drought in the 20 th century. It is
widely recognized that climate change and occurrence of extreme weather conditions among the
major factors affecting the agricultural production, and higher temperature and changing
precipitation levels cause to climate change would decrease crop yield in Africa (Haile, 2015).

The importance of understanding climate change impact on agriculture is essentially evident.

The weather and climate intensely influence the productivity of quality agricultural products.
Individual weather and climate factors like, solar radiation, heat accumulation, temperature
extremes, precipitation, wind, etc, affect both the growth and quality or agro products of high
economic value. The importance of understanding the ongoing impact of climate change on
agriculture is often underestimated. Domestic policy considerations require that climate change
be factored into development activities that are influenced by the weather and climate. At the
same time, scientific evaluations of the immediacy of the impact of climate change and the
extent of climate vulnerability are essential to the formulation of national negotiating positions at
international climate change negotiations (Jayaraman, 2021). The concern with climate change is
heightened given the linkage of the agricultural sector to poverty. In particular, it is anticipated
that adverse impacts on the agricultural sector will exacerbate the incidence of rural poverty.
Impacts on poverty are likely to be especially severe in developing countries where the
agricultural sector is an important source of livelihood for a majority of the rural population
(Mohamed et al. 2022). Therefore, the current review is done with the following objective;

 To review and identify future line of work on the current economic impact of climate
change and variability on agriculture

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 2. ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON
AGRICULTURE

2.1. Climate Change and Agriculture

Against the background of the foregoing, it is now appropriate to consider the nature and extent
of the effects of climate change. Climate change is expected to bring with it warmer temperatures
and drier or wetter conditions(Baoet al., 2022). According to the Food and Agriculture
Organization, global mean surface temperature is projected to rise between 1.8°C to 4.0°C by
2100. The actual rise will depend on the degree of emissions reductions achieved in the next few
decades. The core issue is that GHG emission and the manifestations of the uncertainty of
climate change and the effects on agriculture and the biophysical environment (IPCC, 2022).

High temperature reduces rainfall one side and increase rain fall variability consequently
reducing crop productivity that affects food security in low income (LDC) and agriculture based
economy, thus the impact of climate change is determined to countries that depend on agriculture
as the main live hood (Edward Jones 2017). Climate change causes climate variability of
temperature and precipitation as well as the frequency and severity of weather events direct
effect the climate change includes change in solid moisture land and water condition, change in
frequency of fire and pest infect and the distribution of disease, the potential for system to
sustain advert impact on agriculture is determined by its capacity to adopt the changes (Mohan
and Rob, 2014). Vulnerability is not the same for populations living under different social,
economic, political, institutional and environmental conditions (Oxfam international, 2021).

Climate change has the potential to undermine sustainable development, increase poverty the
realization of the millennium development goals. In June 2007 report by the United Nations
Environment Program(UNEP) suggested that the conflict in Darfur has in part been driven by
climate change and environmental degradation. An effective way to address the impact of
climate change is by integrating adaptation measures in to just amiable development strategies,
So as to reduce the pressure on natural resources, improve environmental risk management, and
increase the social welfare of the poor. Climate changes can influence human directly, through
impacts on health and risk of extreme property on lives, livelihoods and human settlements and

4
directly through impacts on food security and the availability of natural resources [Link] bio
physical effects of climate change on agriculture includes changes in production and price which
plays an autonomously, altering crop mix input use production food demand, food consumption
and trade (Oxfaism, 2023).

Climate variability are type of changes (temperature, rain fall, assurance of extremes) magnitude
and rate of climate change that cause the impact on the area of the public health, agriculture,
food security forecast settlement, energy, industry and financial service, changes physical and
socio economic system have been identified in many regions United Nations Framework
Convention On Climate Change(UNFCC,2016).Variability is the degree to which stem (such as
socio ecological system) is likely to be wounded or experience herm or stress in the natural or
social environment (Kinsperson et al .2021).

2.2. The relationship and degree of elasticity between climate and

agriculture

Agriculture and climate are directly related exerting mutual effects. Climate change affects most
significantly in agriculture out of the other economic sector because of its worldwide distribution
and the strong linkage and dependence of the climate and environmental factors. Thus the effects
of climate change on agricultural production impact the socio-economical dimension at both the
macro and micro scales (Quasem, 2021).

The agriculture sector is a key source of global GHG (Green House Gas) emissions (14 percent
or 6.8 Gt of CO2 equation), but with a high technical mitigation potential (5.5-6 Gt of CO2
equation per year by 2030) (Mueller, 2019). It is discovered that 74 percent of emissions from
agriculture are in developing countries. Mueller (2019) further notes that agriculture is a sector
where mitigation action has strong potential co-benefits for sustainable development in terms of
food security and poverty reduction among the 70 percent of the poor living in rural areas
involved in environmental services and climate change adaptation like improving agro-
ecosystem resilience. The study also reveals that most of the mitigation potential from
agriculture could be achieved through soil carbon sequestration (89 percent) and roughly 70
percent could be realized in developing countries(IPCC, 2022).

5
A study by the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (2015) mentioned that the
relative fraction of man-made GHGs comes from eight categories of sources, as estimated by the
Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research. The value for each fraction is intended to
provide a picture of global annual GHG emissions inthe year 2000. Rohde (2020) reveals that
activities relating to agricultural by products and land use and biomass burning, two categories
among eight, are contributing 22.5 percent to global GHG emissions. Molua (2016) stated that
the basic climatic elements directly influence the spatial distribution of crop types and
agricultural systems, because different crops require different amounts of rainfall, humidity,
warmth and sunshine.

In rain-fed agriculture, climate is the main factor determining crop types and yields. Beyond
certain climatic limits, it becomes impossible or disadvantageous to cultivate certain types of
crops. The different climate conditions that exist at different altitudes affect agriculture
production differently (Zhu et al., 2021). In another study using Ricardian cross-sectional
approach to measure the relationship between the net revenue from growing crops and climate,
net revenue is regressed on climate, water flow, soils and economic variables. The resulting
regression explains the role that each variable plays today. Specifically, the elasticity of net
revenue with respect to temperature is -1.3. This elasticity implies that a 10% increase in
temperature would lead to a 13% decline in net revenue. The elasticity of net revenue with
respect to precipitation is 0.4” (Kurukulasuriy 2016).

2.3. Climatic variables and highlights of its economic implications for

agriculture

Impacts of climate variability and change on the agricultural sector are projected to steadily
manifest directly from changes in land and water regimes, the likely primary conduits of change.
Changes in the occurrence and intensity of droughts, flooding, and storm damage are likely (Zhu
et al., 2021). Climate change is expected to result in long-term water and other resource
shortages, worsening soil conditions, drought and desertification, disease and pest outbreaks on
crops and livestock, sea-level rise, and so on. Vulnerable areas are expected to experience losses
in agricultural productivity, primarily due to reductions in crop yields (Rosenzweiget al. 2012).

6
Climate change and variability affects countries’ economies and households through a variety of
channels. Rising temperatures and changes in rainfall patterns affect agricultural yields of both
rain-fed and irrigated crops. The unchecked rise of sea levels leads to loss of land, landscape, and
infrastructure. A higher frequency of droughts will change hydropower production, and an
increase in floods can significantly increase the need for public investment in physical
infrastructure (Stern 2016; World Bank 2017; Garnaut 2018; Yu et al. 2020).

Climate change may also exacerbate climate variability and reduce agricultural production and
incomes in countries that depend on annual floods such as Bangladesh or in drought-prone
countries such as many in the Middle East (Yu et al. 2020). Long-lasting climate pressures, such
as prolonged drought, will also increase the vulnerability of migratory groups to climate change
which could be disastrous. Short-term migrants could be forced into becoming more permanent
migrants by limiting the scope of areas to move to, resulting in dire consequences such as
pressures on land and resources (Desanker, 2012). Quasem (2021) stated in a study that climate
change could reduce crop yield and areas vulnerable to drought could become marginal for
cultivation thus posing a threat to national food security and exports earnings. Increasing
temperatures will result in enhanced evapotranspiration, leading to a reduction of the water
availability.

Climate change could influence food production adversely due to resulting geographical shifts
and yield changes in agriculture, reduction in the quantity of water available for irrigation and
loss of land through sea level rise and associated salinization. The risk of losses due to weeds,
insects and diseases could increase. Physical damage, loss of crop harvest, drop in productivity,
vigor and others related to crop potentials are examples of direct and indirect effects of the
extreme climate change. Climate change may increase the amount of arable land in high-latitude
region by reduction of the amount of frozen lands. IRRI, (2017) on the other hand stated that sea
levels are also expected to get up to one meter higher by 2100, as a response to climate variation.
Erosion, submergence of shorelines, salinity of the water table due to the increased sea levels,
could mainly affect agriculture through flooding of low-lying lands such as Bangladesh, India
and Vietnam. The initial benefits arise partly because more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere
reduces “water stress” in plants and may make them grow faster (Long et al., 2016).

7
Results reveal that climate change may not be a big threat for prairie agricultural economics if
farmers employ appropriate adaptation strategies such as switching between crops and
introducing new crops. Instead, climate change may provide an opportunity for agricultural
producers in the prairies to gain from future price and environmental change (Amiraslany, 2020).
Other beneficial implications of climate change include, higher wind speeds in the mid-latitudes
that would decrease the costs of wind and wave energy. Less sea ice would improve the
accessibility of arctic harbors, would reduce the costs of exploitation of oil and minerals in the
Arctic, and might even open up new transport routes between Europe and East Asia (Wilson et
al., 2014). Warmer weather would reduce expenditures on clothing and food, and traffic
disruptions due to snow and ice (Carmicheal, et al., 2014). But initial economic gains from
altered growing conditions will likely be lost as temperatures continue to rise. Regional droughts,
water shortages, as well as excess precipitation, and spread of pest and diseases will negatively
impact agriculture in most regions (Horin, 2018).

2.4. Economic challenges of climate change on agriculture

The problem of climate change and the effects are global; involve cross-cutting issues that affect
agricultural production in both the developed and developing worlds. However, the latter is
likely to be harder hit than the former because of the stresses on the use of natural resources
across a greater variety of agro-ecological zones (Zhu et al., 2021). In the developing world, the
most vulnerable are several millions of poor small farmers and the landless, their disadvantaged
livelihoods, and general inability to lift themselves from subsistence living to improved
livelihoods, seek food and nutritional security, and the stability of farm households. It is already
a major challenge for the resource-poor to efficiently use the available natural resources and seek
improvements, and the onset of climate change imposes even greater stresses on their resilience
and farming activities(Baoet al., 2022).

8
Figure 1:Climate change impact on agriculture

Source: Fernandez, (2017)

Agricultural production is carried out through the selection of crops suitable for the climate of a
specific region and application of proper farming methods. Therefore, agriculture is a climate
dependent bio-industry with notable regional characteristics. Regional characteristics refer to the
ecosystem characteristics determined by the climate of the region(Baoet al., 2022). Climate
change disturbs the agricultural ecosystem, resulting in the change in agricultural climatic
elements such as temperature, precipitation, and sunlight, while further influencing the arable,
livestock, and hydrology sectors. First of all, the impacts of climate change on the arable and
livestock sector are made known by biological changes including the change of flowering and
harvesting seasons, quality change, and shift of areas suitable for cultivation. Climate change
affects the agricultural ecosystem, givingrise to blights and pests and causing population
movement and change in biodiversity Fernandez, (2017).

9
Figure 2:Flow of the climate change impact on the agricultural sector

Source: Kim, Chang-Gil et al., (2019)

In the livestock sector, climate change brings about biological changes in areas such as
fertilization and breeding and also affects the growing pattern of pastures. Climate change affects
the hydrology including underground water level, water temperature, river flow, and water
quality of lakes and marshes, by impacting precipitation, evaporation, and soil moisture content.

Agro-ecological zone analysis is carried out by using the crop simulation model (called the crop
model for short) that tracks the changes in agricultural production and agro-ecological zones that
haveresulted from climate change. Crop growth is determined by the combined action of three
elements, those being the genetic characteristics of crop, cultivation technology, and
environment (climate, soil, etc.). The crop model refers to a computer program that can estimate
the crop growth and its quantity when these three elements are entered. Using the crop model, it
is possible to estimate and analyze agricultural production under climate change. The Crop
estimation through the Resource and Environment Synthesis (CERES) model developed in the
USA by integrating the crop model and the resource environment can assume a certain situation
that is likely to happen and forecast its possible results(Baoet al., 2022).

10
Figure 3: Potential impacts of global warming on the agricultural sector

Source: Kim, Chang-Gil et al. (2009)

The change in the main areas of production might be as a crisis for certain areas but might be an
opportunity for other areas, so it cannot be classified either as a positive or as a negative impact
Kim, Chang-Gil et al. (2009). In sum, the impacts of climate change on the agricultural sector
have ambivalent characteristics of positive impacts creating opportunities and of negative
impacts with costs. Therefore, it is very important to formulate adaptation strategies that can
maximize the opportunities and minimize the costs that will lead to sustainable agriculture
development(Baoet al., 2022).

2.5. Specific challenges faced by agriculture

Water shortages

Most of the impacts of climate change on agriculture will come through water. Climate change is
likely to result in a decrease in annual water availability in many parts of Europe due to an
expected reduction in summer rainfall mainly in southern areas and parts of central
Europe(Bettet al., 2019). In western and Atlantic areas, summers are likely to be dryer and hotter

11
and reduced water resources during this season may lead to conflicting demands between
agriculture and other users. The increased risk of water shortages will have a major impact on
agricultural production and European landscapes. Many EU areas, notably in southern Member
States have practiced irrigation for hundreds of years – this is part of the farming tradition – but
the sector will need to review irrigation techniques in the light of climate change. Several
regions may need to increase the irrigated area to ensure continuous production. But there is no
doubt that agriculture has to make further efforts to improve its water use efficiency and reduce
water losses, and irrigation plans will need to be based on careful planning and thorough
assessments of their impacts (IPCC, 2022).

Weather hazards Impacts from increasing frequency of extreme weather events such as hail,
intense winter precipitation, heat waves and droughts will be felt everywhere in Europe. A
succession of floods, droughts and storms in recent years has shown Europe’s vulnerability to
extreme conditions, and their frequency could increase in the short to medium term (up to 2020).
In particular, the risk of drought in the southern EU and the possibility of floods in central and
northern EU areas are expected to rise.

Increased pest problems

Adverse impacts can also be expected from the likely rise in the spatial distribution and intensity
of existing pests, diseases, and weeds, due to higher temperatures and humidity. The magnitude
of the overall effect is difficult to assess but it is likely to be highly regionalized. Farmers will
face the challenge of dealing with increased pest problems, or new pest challenges, within the
constraints of what science can provide and within the EU’s pesticide authorization regulatory
framework (IPCC, 2022).

Impact on crop yields and crop distribution

Projected climatic changes will affect the level and variability of crop yields, livestock
management, and the location of production as agro-climatic zones are likely to shift to more
northern latitudes( Assenget al., 2019). These impacts may even put domestic food supply at risk
in certain parts of Europe; they can also lead to increased price instability; and they will mean
greater risks for farmers’ incomes. This may be exacerbated by the impact climate change will

12
have on important non-EU agri cultural producer countries, from which the EU imports
significant volumes of agricultural and food commodities.

However, there is still considerable uncertainty attached to forecasts of climate trajectories as

well as to the expected impacts on agriculture, in particular at detailed spatial level. The existing
variations between forecasts generated by different climate change models and socio-economic
scenarios, and according to different time horizons, is an important factor when considering
impacts.

In the least developed countries, damage because of climactic changes may threaten food
security and national economic productivity (Myers et al., 2017). Yield reductions in different
crops (rice, wheat) varied within regions due to variations in climate patterns (Yu et al., 2018).
CO2 fertilization can increase crop productivity and balance the drastic e ffects of higher
temperature in C3 plants (Obermeieret al., 2017) but cannot reduce the effect of elevated
temperature (Arunratet al., 2018). Crop growth and development have been negatively
influenced because of rising temperatures and rainfall variability (Rezaeiet al., 2018; Asseng et
al., 2019).

Table 1: Productivity shock due to climate change and variability on rice and wheat crop
production by 2030
Countries Rice Wheat

−10 to
China −12 to +12 +14
−10 to
Philippines −10 to +4 +4
−10 to
Thailand −10 to +4 +4
Rest of SE −10 to
Asia −10 to +4 +4
−10 to
Bangladesh −10 to +4 +4
−10 to
India −15 to +4 +4
−10 to
Pakistan −15 to +4 +4
−10 to
Rest S Asia −15 to +4 +4

Source: Assenget al. (2019)

13
Minus sign (-) indicates the decrease in productivity while positive sign (+) indicates increase in
productivity.

Rice and wheat are major contributors to food security in Asia. There is a big challenge to
increase wheat production by 60% by 2050 to meet ever-enhancing food demands (Rezaeiet al.,
2018). In arid to semi-arid regions, declined crop productivity is attributed to an increase in
temperature at lower latitudes. (Chen et al., 2018). Rice is sensitive to a gradual rise in night
temperature causing yield and biomass to reduce by 16–52% if the temperature increase is 2 ◦C
above the critical temperature of 24 ◦C (Yang et al., 2017). In Asia, semi-arid to arid regions are
under threat and are already facing the problem of drought stress and low productivity. The
quality of wheat produce (protein content, sugars, and starch) and grain yield have reduced
because of the negative impacts of increasing temperature and erratic rainfall with high intensity
(Yang et al., 2017). In the Egyptian North Nile Delta (up to 17.6%), India, and China, the
climate variability has decreased wheat yield significantly which is attributed to a rise in
temperature, erratic rainfall and increasing insect pest infestation (Arunratet al., 2018; Aryalet
al., 2019; Kheiret al., 2019).

Climate effects in forests

EU forest areas will also be widely affected by changing climatic conditions. Warming is likely
to intensify the risk of forests fires and pests; in the longer term it will also affect tree species
composition and timber production capacity, although the incidence of these impacts will be
geographically different. Extreme weather events, such as heavy winds, storms, and prolonged
heat waves and droughts will also have significant impacts on forests. In the long term, climate
change might jeopardize the capacity of our forests to provide economic, social and ecological
services (IPCC, 2022).

Climate variability has posed several negative impacts on forests including variations in
productive traits, carbon dynamics, and vegetation shift, as well as the exhaustion of soil
resources along with drought and heat stress in South Asian countries (Jhariyaet al., 2019; Zhu et
al., 2021). In Bangladesh, forests are vulnerable to climate variability due to increased risks of
fires, rise in sea level, storm surges, coastal erosion and landslides, and ultimately reduction in
forest area (Chow et al., 2019). Biodiversity protection, carbon sequestration, food, fiber,

14
improvement in water quality, and medicinal products are considered major facilities provided
by forests (Chitaleet al.,2018).

In contrast, trait-climate relationships and environmental conditions have drastically influenced

structure, distribution, and forest ecology (Keenan, 2015). Higher rates of tree mortality and die-
off have been induced in forest trees because of high temperature and often-dry events ( Allen et
al., 2015; Greenwood et al., 2017; Zhu et al., 2021). For instance, trees Sal, pine trees, and etc
have been threatened by climate-driven continuing forest clearing, habitat alteration, and drought
in South Asian countries (Wang et al., 2019). An increase in temperature and CO 2 fertilization
has increased insect pest infestation for forest trees in North China (Baoet al., 2019). As rising
temperature, elevated carbon dioxide (CO 2), and fluctuating precipitating patterns lead to the
rapid development of insect pests and ultimately more progeny will attack forest trees (Raza et
al.,2015).

Land Use and Livelihood Systems of the Poor

In a general sense looming climate change, land use systems especially in the semi-arid and arid
AEZs will come under great pressure and are likely to be associated with the following:
Considerable variation in the quantitative and qualitative changes in vegetative growth,
Problems in the management and use of natural resources, Overstocking as a means to reduce
economic risk, Loss of vegetative cover, Loss of soil moisture, Soil erosion; and Desertification
(Assenget al., 2019).

The poor and the landless in small farm systems are the most vulnerable to the effects of climate
change. This is because of their lack of adaptation, limited capacity for mitigation, inadequate
access to new technologies and services that can reduce risks and promote increased adaptation
to heat stress for example in cropping patterns. As it is, these farmers have poor access to
improved agricultural technologies and information, and the additional demands and needs of
climate change will only exacerbate the situation. Since the majority of the poor live in difficult
environments, poverty and their vulnerability is increased and further exacerbated by lack of
opportunities for off-farm employment (FAO, 2023).

Effects on the poor

15
The effects on poor people and livelihood systems are serious and include reduced income,
increased poverty, vulnerability and instability, pressures to adapt to heat stress, increased food
and nutritional insecurity, reduced opportunities, reduced self-reliance, and increased urban
migration. The net effects of these limitations are widespread and increased vulnerability and
negative impacts on livelihoods stability of households, and agricultural development (Asseng et
al., 2019).

Table 2:Effects of climate change on land use and livelihood systems of the poor

Land use systems Livelihood systems of the poor *

• Reduced food and nutritional

• Reduced soil moisture security
• Problems with agricultural water > Availability
management > Access
>Utilisation; and
• Changes in soils due to modification of > Food systems stability
water • FAO (2008)
balance
• Ecosystems changes: genetic resources • Increased risk of poverty and
and hunger
biodiversity
• Expansion of semi-arid and arid AEZs
• Increased droughts • Increased vulnerability
• Increased rangelands • Inability to adapt to heat stress
• Inability to sustain animal
• Woody encroachment production as
a key feature of rural livelihoods
• Reduced products and services
• Desertification from
agricultural biodiversity
• Increased overstocking of heat tolerant • Increased susceptibility to
animals diseases
e.g. goats especially in the rangelands
with • Reduced productivity
resultant soil degradation
• Alter the suitability of land to grow crops
• Increased salinisation • Reduced income
• Reduced self-reliance
• Reduced biodiversity • Unstable households
• Species adaptation and distribution • Increased urban migration
• Shift out of agriculture
* Includes the landless
Source: (Devendra, 2021)

16
More particularly and with specific reference to animal production, climate change will bring
with it a number of potentially significant yield-reducing impacts. The impacts and potential
yield reduction is likely to be significant given the sizeable populations of various animals and
diversity of breeds. With buffaloes, goats and sheep for example, as much as 98%, 55% and 39%
of the total world populations (FAO 2020) are present, a high proportion of which are found in
small farms and extensive semi-arid and arid AEZs.

Dry land Agriculture

One aspect of the direct threat of climate change on livelihoods is through the expansion of dry
land agriculture and areas such as in South Asia that are very vulnerable to drought. Such threats
are projected to increase and will seriously affect millions of poor rural communities who are
constantly deprived and experience vulnerability. On the other hand, these poor farmers already
have some experience of coping with high temperatures and a harsh environment, which can be
advantageous to them as they begin to cope with the more stressful aspects of climate change
that will be imposed on them (FAO, 2023).

The value of the rain fed areas is totally dependent on rainfall. When the rains fail, the potential
disaster is explosive with several resultant implications: More droughts and climate instability,
Failure of crop production and reduced grazing lands and feed availability, Millions of
households and people, with their camels, goats, sheep and cattle are forced into semi-nomadism
and nomadism, Poor people are marginalized further into extreme poverty, starvation and
vulnerability, Erosion of biodiversity; and Damage to the environment is inevitable. Extreme
difficulties and agricultural constraints are therefore inevitable which will increase risks and
human despair. It is already bad enough for the poor to eke out living in these harsh conditions,
without having to deal with the additional burden of climate change which threatens to
exacerbate the circumstances and worsen the se even more. If the threats and effects of climate
change are going to worsen, which is very likely, these very poor farmers and the landless will
face disaster, let alone opt for a complete shift out of agriculture (Zhu et al., 2021).

The other related aspect concerning climate change is human health and livelihoods. The effects
are mediated through complex interactions of temperature, rainfall, humidity, water, air quality,

17
pollution, poor nutrition and adaptation. Poor people will be most vulnerable to these vectors
with resultant ill health and a shorter life span. Famines, floods and monsoons further add to the
problems. The consequences on human health and malnutrition seriously increase risks that
affect human development. One result of this is reduced adult labor on farms to cope with
farming activities and agricultural production (Zhu et al., 2021).

Cropping Patterns

Crop production will be seriously affected by climate change involving both annual and
perennial crops. Temperature and water stress will affect leaf formation, flowering and growth.
Cash crops which are so important for income and the stability of households will either have
reduced yields or not grown at all as is already happening with successive droughts. There is
extreme paucity of data in Malaysia on the effects of temperature rise on crop production, and it
will therefore be instructive to cite some results from elsewhere.

At the global level, the yield of the major cereals (maize, wheat and rice) grown at low levels
are expected to decline beyond a temperature increase of just over 1°C (IPCC 2017b).
Variability in climatic changes will also have direct effects on reduced yields. Wheeler et al.
(2020) for example have reported that the yield of all cereal and grain crops can be drastically
reduced if temperatures above 32°C–35°C coincide with the time of flowering, when the crop is
particularly sensitive to hot days.

In the face of climate change, cropping systems and patterns will no doubt be affected and be in
disarray, mediated mainly by increased temperature and water stress. Traditional cropping
systems will need to be reconsidered with new varieties that can adapt to increased temperature
and water stress, new agronomic and management strategies that can cope with increased
temperature change, together with the use of low inputs. One issue is certain — more
innovative systems will be required that can adapt to, and cope with the new demands and the
multiple implications of climate change (Zhu et al., 2021).

18
Animals and Animal Production Systems

Animals in farming systems play a very important multifunctional role throughout the
developing world of much significance for resource-poor farmers. A very large portion of the
poor farmers own animals (Devendraet al. 2020) for socio-economic reasons and food security.
Climate changes will have a significant effect on animal production systems. As with crops and
so with animals, productivity from animals and the resilience of animal production systems will
need to cope with the looming effects of climate change. The extent to which there will be
adaptation to such effects will be especially important in the future. Climatic variables will have
critical effects on the food production systems and food security, as well as impact on access to
food, and therefore increased vulnerability of the poor. Tropical climates with their high
temperatures and humidity inflict behavioral and metabolic changes that result in reduced feed
intake and therefore lower productivity. While the effects are many, the two key concerns are
(i) heat or thermal stress and (ii) the qualitative and quantitative availability of feed resources
(Zhu et al., 2021).

It has been suggested that the speed of climate change may outstrip the ability of the animal
genetic resources, notwithstanding inherent resistance, tolerance to specific diseases, and
adaptation to the harsh conditions of the LFAs. The genetic diversity provides a range of
options that will be useful in adaptation. Major challenges exist to ensure adaptation,
fundamental to which is characterization, sustainable use, conservation and policy framework
(Pilling & Hoffmann 2021).

There are a number of potential effects of climate change on prevailing animal production
systems (Reynolds, Crompton & Mills 2021). These include impacts on: Forage yields,
Feedstuff quality, availability and costs, Water availability, Thermal or heat stress and related
welfare issues, Diseases spread and control; and these factors in turn affect GHG emissions.

Dairy production is a complex multi-dimensional and multi-faceted sector. Among ruminant

production systems dairying stands tall, but it is also the most vulnerable to climate change,
involving high quality animals, and improved and efficient use of feeds, the natural resources
and preservation of the ecosystems. The vulnerability increases with the ise of exotic imports

19
like Holstein-Friesian cattle. This involves both germplasm and production resources, often in
peri-urban areas that sustains the needs of human livelihoods (Zhu et al., 2021).

In arid to semi-arid regions, the livestock sector is highly susceptible to increased temperature
and reduced precipitation (Downing et al., 2017; Balamuruganet al., 2018). A temperature range
of 10–30◦C is comfortable for domestic livestock with a 3–5% reduction in animal feed intake
with each degree rise in temperature. Similarly, the lower temperature would increase the
requirement feed up to 59%. Moreover, drought and heat stress would drastically a ffect livestock
production under climate change scenarios (Habeebet al., 2018). Climate variability affects the
occurrence and transmission of several diseases in livestock. For instance, Rift Valley Fever
(RVF) due to an increase in precipitation, and tick-borne diseases (TBDs) due to a rise in
temperature, have become epidemics for sheep, goats, cattle, bu ffalo, and camels ( Bettet al.,
2019). Different breeds of livestock show different responses to higher temperature and scarcity
of water.

In dry regions of Asia, extreme variability in rainfall and drought stress would cause severe feed
scarcity (Arunratet al., 2018). It has been revealed that a high concentration of CO 2 reduces the
quality of fodder like the reduction in protein, iron, zinc, and vitamins B1, B2, B5, and B9 (Ebi
and Loladze, 2019). Future climate scenarios show that the pastures, grasslands, feedstu ff quality
and quantity, as well as biodiversity would be highly a ffected. Livestock productivity under
future climate scenarios would affect the sustainability of rangelands, their carrying capacity and
ecosystem buffering capacity, and grazing management, as well as the alteration in feed choice
and emission of greenhouse gases (Nguyen et al., 2019).

2.6. Measuring the economic impact of climate change on agriculture

The quantity and intensity of the research effort on the economic effects of climate change
appears insufficient with the perceived size of the climate problem, the expected costs of the
solution, and the size of the existing research gaps (Tol, 2019). Combining local and global
climate change scenarios show welfare losses across all rural and urban household groups of
between 1.6 – 2.8 percent annually, whereas the poorest household groups are the hardest hit
(Breisingeret al., 2021). Early global estimates predict (without consideration of CO2
fertilization effects or adaptation) a 20–30 percent reduction in grain.

20
Based on agronomic research in low latitude countries, Reilly et al. (2016) approximate global
welfare changes in the agricultural sector (without adaptations) between losses of US$61.2
billion and gains of US$0.1 billion in contrast to losses of US$37 billion to gains of US$70
billion with appropriate adaptations in place. Approximation also suggests 4– 24 percent losses
in production in the developed countries, and 14–16 percent losses in developing countries
(IPCC 1996). Murdiyarso (2020) highlights that rice production in Asia may also decline by 3.8
percent of production levels of 2000 (estimated at 430 metric tons) under likely future climate
regimes. Lansiganet al. (2020) mentioned that variability in the form of typhoons, floods, and
droughts has resulted in 82.4 percent of the total Philippine rice losses from 1970 to 1990. The
cost of domestic losses in 1990 alone from climatic events had amounted to US$39.2 million.
With CO2 fertilization and trade effects, one study suggests net gains of $9–10.8 billion.

In another study based on the United States, estimated impacts range from -$4.8 billion to $5.8
billion. The study also shows that climate change results in 38.9–55.3 percent of U.S. land
assigned to a new land class, reflecting the new length of the growing season. Net changes in
land classes reflect increments in land allocated to crop production, while in many scenarios,
land in pasture also increases byagricultural production in the United States, even with 8.6– 19.1
percent of cropland abandoned for production (Darwin et al., 2015). Using a dynamic crop
model to simulate the effect of heavy precipitation on crop growth and plant damage, from
excess soil moisture in order to estimate the impact on U.S. corn production it is found that
damages of approximately $3 billion per year are likely to result from climate variability
(Rosenzweiget al., 2012). Maddison (2010) finds that landowners are constrained by their
inability to costlessly repackage their land. Assuming CO2 doubling, as well as increases in
temperature of 1.5 degrees (C), and 7 percent increase in rainfall, results (Etsiaet al., 2012) point
out that Tunisia is likely to suffer losses in agricultural production of 7–22 percent Even with no
climate change, the price of rice would rise by 62 percent, maize by 63 percent, soybeans by 72
percent, and wheat by 39 percent.

Climate change would result in additional price increases of 32 to 37 percent for rice, 52 to 55
percent for maize, 11 to 14 percent for soybeans, and 94 to 111 percent for wheat (Nelson 2019).
According to some estimates, the overall economic impact of climate change on the agricultural
sector could be up to 10 percent of GDP. In addition, under-preparedness to increased frequency

21
or lengthening of periods of drought, higher temperatures, and climate variability (for example,
extreme events) can be prohibitively costly and can severely undermine expensive long-term
investments (Kurukulasuriya 2013).

2.7. Agriculture opportunities against climate change

Gabre-Madhinet al. (2012) state that technological change can bring about improvement in total
factor productivity in two ways: reducing average fixed costs by increasing yields per fixed
factor or reducing variable costs by reducing the cost of the technology itself. Smithers and Blay-
Palmer (2011) identify two basic types of technological options namely, mechanical and
biological, that is important for agriculture. Mechanical innovations include irrigation,
conservation tillage, and integrated drainage systems, all of which have contributed significantly
to the intensification of agricultural activity and permitted a wider range of agricultural activities
than local resources would have otherwise permitted whereas biological options like investment
in crop breeding, the promotion of climate-resistant varieties that offer improved resistance to
changing diseases and insects, breeding of heat and drought-resistant crop varieties, the use of
traditional varieties bred for storm and drought resistance, and investment in seed banks are
necessary for success in overcoming vulnerability to climate impacts.

Current technological advances in irrigation, such as the use of center pivot irrigation, dormant
season irrigation, drip irrigation, gravity irrigation, and pipe and sprinkler irrigation make this
possible (Parry et al. 2010). Adaptation to climate change is a broad issue and needs to be
undertaken at many levels. Many of these initiatives are self-funded (Stern 2017). Several studies
discussed the issue of currently available supports from government for adaptability of the
farmers (Alamet al. 2021d), and required new supports for future adaptability of farmers (Alamet
al. 2021e). Adaptation to climate change and mitigation of its damages are presumed to be the
best ways to deal with its effects in the short run.

There is potential to decrease emissions of other non-carbon GHGs (N2O and CH4) through
more efficient use of fertilizers and improved rice and livestock systems as livestock and
livestock-related activities such as deforestation and increasingly fuel-intensive farming practices
are responsible for over 18 percent of human-made GHG emissions, and 64 percent of global

22
nitrous oxide emissions. The preceding study also reported that worldwide, livestock production
occupies 70 percent of all land used for agriculture, or 30 percent of the land surface of the earth
(Murad, 2020) To maintain self-sufficiency, the main strategy could be improving management
options. The following are the three broad categories with mentioned sub-instruments (Quasem,
2021).

Among the most important and direct current adaptations to climate variability are a variety of
farm level responses. For example: diversification of crop and livestock varieties, have been
supported as having the potential to increase productivity against temperature and moisture (Zhu
et al., 2021). Diversity in seed genetic structure and composition has been recognized as an
effective defence against numerous factors like disease and pest outbreak and climate hazards.
Delcourt and Van kooten (2015) pointed out several options for addressing impacts on yields and
soils from climate impacts, including changing land-use practices, rotating or shifting production
between crops and livestock, and shifting production away from marginal areas that can help
reduce soil erosion and improve moisture and nutrient retention.

Studies also suggest abandonment of land altogether and the cultivation of new land as an
effective adaptation option (Parry 2010). Brklacichet al. (2010) suggest that altering the intensity
of fertilizer and pesticide application along with capital and labour inputs can reduce risks from
climate change in farm production. Farmer adaptation can also involve changing the timing of
irrigation (Zhu et al., 2021) or use of other inputs such as fertilizers. In addition, Baker et al.
(2018) highlight shifts in biological diversity, species composition and/ or distribution as
appropriate adaptation measures. The options also include change in grazing management or in
mix of grazers or browsers; varying supplemental feeding; changing the location of watering
points; altering the breeding management program; changes in rangeland management practices;
modifying operation production strategies as well as changing market strategies.

23
 3. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION

Climate change is a trans-border issue and its occurrence in every part of the world is inevitable.
In managing climate change, a few developed countries (who in fact are the major carbon
dioxide emitters), have drawn up and implemented relevant policies and strategies to minimize
impacts on the economy. Developing or agro-based countries are expected to suffer most from
climatic variations.

The agriculture sector is the backbone of any agro-based economy and at the same time is the
most vulnerable to extreme climate change. Floods and droughts are the most common
phenomena or disaster on the extreme side that need to be managed holistically as the impacts
are enormous, economically, socially and psychologically to people and nations. More
importantly, climate change could affect the sustainability of food supply of the victim states and
inflict poverty as a chain reaction.

Agriculture has additional opportunities to contribute to climate change mitigation by reducing

its emissions of methane and nitrous oxide, by enhancing carbon sequestration in agricultural
soils, and by providing materials for renewable energies and industrial applications. Farmers
have long proved their capacity to adapt to new challenges. Constant evolution regarding the
choice of crops and varieties, and management practices (e. g. timing of farm operations,
irrigation) can be observed.

These are mainly autonomous actions at regional and, in particular, at farm level triggered by
short-term circumstances (e. g. as a result of weather forecasts). However, the challenges
imposed by climate change in the future exceed the limits of autonomous adaptive capacity on
farm level, and policies will be required to enable farmers to cope with changes needed in
farming systems. Rural development policy can play an important role in providing support to
farmers and rural communities facing climate risks. In addressing adverse effect of climate
change on agriculture, specific adaptation measures to manage climate change are necessary.

24
 4. FUTURE LINE OF WORK

On the bases this study, the following recommendations have been drawn to reduce the impact
of climate change on crop production of study area.
 Although lots of work has been done in this particular arena, still further extensive
research need to be carried out especially by the governments and private sectors of all
stakeholder nations to determine and assess the exact economic impact of climate
changes on the agricultural sector, and find out applicable remedies available naturally,
or that might be designed to minimize the adverse effects of such climatic changes.
 Special focus need to be placed on formulating a single adaptation technique valid in
both short and long term perspectives to equalize the future climate variation, and how
the enormous cost of such adaption can be managed (who would pay?) these are in fact
the toughest questions unanswered by existing studies.
 There is a need to support farmer’s adaptation capacity and improving their crop
production efficiently to overcome climate change impacts. So, the agricultural and rural
development needs to support them.
 Focus on raising awareness, knowledge management and information dissemination. So
thegovernment or private responsible institutions should be able to work on the
promotional through media and others.
 There were strengthened intensive natural resource conservation and rehabilitation
activities. Particularly measures that conserve the environment and at the same time can
generate income to support farmers were essential.
 The majority of sampled house-holds have large family size found between 4 and 7 this
shows rapidly growing population. Therefore, measures against the prevailing high
population growth should be targeted strongly.

25
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