Wealthkosh.

com
Warning! Excel can be a wond
the past. But it can be a weapon
to predict the future! So be ver
are getting into. Here, garbage
garbage ou

Basic Company Details

Parameters Details
Company DABUR INDIA LTD
Current Stock Price (Rs) 584 Remember! Focus on decisio
Face Value (Rs) 1.0 Look for disconfirming eviden
No. of Shares (Crore) 176.8
Market Capitalization (Rs Crore) 103,322

Key Financials - Trend

Please! It's your money. Pleas
Parameters Details
results of this excel cause yo
Sales Growth (9-Year CAGR) 6.8% designed this excel to aid you
Profit Before Tax Growth (9-Year CAGR) 11.2% you alone are responsible for y
Net Profit Growth (8-Year CAGR) 11.3% live peacefully ever after! I am
Average Debt/Equity (5-Years, x) 0.1 wants you to do the hard w
Average Return on Equity (5-Years) 24.0% companies on your own. But I
Average P/E (5-Years, x) 48.4 compass instead of a map, for y
with territory and lose it a
Latest P/E (x) 61.0
 Warning! Excel can be a wonderful tool to analyze
the past. But it can be a weapon of mass destruction
to predict the future! So be very careful of what you
are getting into. Here, garbage in will always equal
garbage out.

Remember! Focus on decisions, not outcomes.

Look for disconfirming evidence. Calculate. Pray!

Please! It's your money. Please don't blame me if

results of this excel cause you to lose it all! I've
designed this excel to aid your own thinking, but
you alone are responsible for your actions. I want to
live peacefully ever after! I am not a sadist who
wants you to do the hard work by analyzing
companies on your own. But I'd rather give you a
compass instead of a map, for you can confuse map
with territory and lose it all. All the best!
 Buffett Checklist - Read, Remember, Follow!
Source - Buffettology by Mary Buffett & David Clark
Parameter

Consumer monopoly or commodity?

Understand how business works

Is the company conservatively financed?

Are earnings strong and do they show an

upward trend?

Does the company stick with what it

knows?

Has the company been buying back its

shares?

Have retained earnings been invested

well?

Is the company’s return on equity above

average?

Is the company free to adjust prices to

inflation?
Does the company need to constantly
reinvest in capital?

Conclusion

Never Forget
 Buffett Checklist - Read, Remember, Follow!
Source - Buffettology by Mary Buffett & David Clark
Explanation

Seek out companies that have no or less competition, either due to a patent or brand name or similar intangible that
makes the product unique. Such companies will typically have high gross and operating profit margins because of their
unique niche. However, don't just go on margins as high margins may simply highlight companies within industries with
traditionally high margins. Thus, look for companies with gross, operating and net profit margins above industry norms.
Also look for strong growth in earnings and high return on equity in the past.

Try to invest in industries where you possess some specialized knowledge (where you work) or can more effectively
judge a company, its industry, and its competitive environment (simple products you consume). While it is difficult to
construct a quantitative filter, you should be able to identify areas of interest. You should "only" consider analyzing
those companies that operate in areas that you can clearly grasp - your circle of competence. Of course you can
increase the size of the circle, but only over time by learning about new industries. More important than the size of the
circle is to know its boundaries.

Seeks out companies with conservative financing, which equates to a simple, safe balance sheet. Such companies tend
to have strong cash flows, with little need for long-term debt. Look for low debt to equity or low debt-burden ratios. Also
seek companies that have history of consistently generating positive free cash flows.

Rising earnings serve as a good catalyst for stock prices. So seek companies with strong, consistent, and expanding
earnings (profits). Seek companies with 5/10 year earnings per share growth greater than 25% (along with safe balance
sheets). To help indicate that earnings growth is still strong, look for companies where the last 3-years earnings growth
rate is higher than the last 10-years growth rate. More important than the rate of growth is the consistency in such
growth. So exclude companies with volatile earnings growth in the past, even if the "average" growth has been high.

Like you should stock to your circle of competence, a company should invest its capital only in those businesses within
its circle of competence. This is a difficult factor to screen for on a quantitative level. Before investing in a company, look
at the company’s past pattern of acquisitions and new directions. They should fit within the primary range of operations
for the firm. Be cautious of companies that have been very aggressive in acquisitions in the past.

Buffett prefers that firms reinvest their earnings within the company, provided that profitable opportunities exist. When
companies have excess cash flow, Buffett favours shareholder-enhancing maneuvers such as share buybacks. While
we do not screen for this factor, a follow-up examination of a company would reveal if it has a share buyback plan in
place.

Seek companies where earnings have risen as retained earnings (earnings after paying dividends) have been
employed profitably. A great way to screen for such companies is by looking at those that have had consistent earnings
and strong return on equity in the past.

Consider it a positive sign when a company is able to earn above-average (better than competitors) returns on equity
without employing much debt. Average return on equity for Indian companies over the last 10 years is approximately
16%. Thus, seek companies that earn at least this much (16%) or more than this. Again, consistency is the key here.

That's what is called "pricing power". Companies with moat (as seen from other screening metrics as suggested above
(like high ROE, high grow margins, low debt etc.) are able to adjust prices to inflation without the risk of losing
significant volume sales.
Companies that consistently need capital to grow their sales and profits are like bank savings account, and thus bad for
an investor's long term portfolio. Seek companies that don't need high capital investments consistently. Retained
earnings must first go toward maintaining current operations at competitive levels, so the lower the amount needed to
maintain current operations, the better. Here, more than just an absolute assessment, a comparison against
competitors will help a lot. Seek companies that consistently generate positive and rising free cash flows.

Sensible investing is always about using “folly and discipline” - the discipline to identify excellent businesses, and wait
for the folly of the market to drive down the value of these businesses to attractive levels. You will have little trouble
understanding this philosophy. However, its successful implementation is dependent upon your dedication to learn and
follow the principles, and apply them to pick stocks successfully.

Focus on decisions, not outcomes. Look for disconfirming evidence.

 Balance Sheet
DABUR INDIA LTD
Rs Cr Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21
Equity Share Capital 174 174 174 176 176 176 176 177 177 177
Reserves 1,543 1,921 2,482 3,178 3,995 4,671 5,530 5,455 6,429 7,487
Borrowings 1,068 1,151 708 734 805 975 938 699 522 483
Other Liabilities 1,415 1,462 1,948 2,019 1,956 1,910 2,058 2,106 2,209 2,700
Total 4,200 4,709 5,312 6,106 6,932 7,732 8,702 8,437 9,337 10,847

Net Block 1,641 1,582 1,767 1,877 1,667 1,958 2,028 1,969 2,253 2,243
Capital Work in Progress 27 93 22 50 45 42 42 64 147 147
Investments 483 929 1,076 1,813 2,691 3,240 3,805 3,359 2,800 4,160
Other Assets 2,050 2,105 2,447 2,365 2,529 2,492 2,827 3,045 4,137 4,297
Total 4,200 4,709 5,312 6,106 6,932 7,732 8,702 8,437 9,337 10,847

Working Capital 635 643 499 347 573 582 769 939 1,928 1,597
Debtors 462 484 675 711 809 650 706 834 814 562
Inventory 824 844 973 973 1,097 1,107 1,256 1,301 1,380 1,734
Cash & Bank** 4,735 3,367 3,190 3,393 2,605 3,546 4,618
** Manually enter this number; Convert to Rs Crore if not already done in the Annual Reports; Use Cash+Bank+Current Investments from Consolidated Balance Sheet in Annual Reports

Debtor Days 32 29 35 33 38 31 33 36 34 21
Inventory Turnover 6 7 7 8 7 7 6 7 6 6
Fixed Asset Turnover 3.2 3.9 4.0 4.2 4.7 3.9 3.8 4.3 3.9 4.3
Debt/Equity 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1
Return on Equity 38% 37% 35% 32% 30% 26% 24% 26% 22% 22%
Return on Capital Employed 28% 32% 37% 43% 48% 41% 40% 44% 31% 36%
 Profit & Loss Account / Income Statement
DABUR INDIA LTD
Rs Cr Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Trailing
Sales 5,294 6,140 7,058 7,795 7,869 7,614 7,722 8,515 8,685 9,562 9,562
% Growth YOY 16% 15% 10% 1% -3% 1% 10% 2% 10%
Expenses 4,404 5,157 5,899 6,479 6,350 6,102 6,107 6,779 6,892 7,560 7,560
Material Cost (% of Sales) 53% 34% 34% 34% 50% 35% 36% 36% 36% 52% Check for wide fluctuations in key
Power and Fuel 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% expense items. For manufacturing firms,
Other Mfr. Exp 1% 16% 16% 16% 1% 16% 16% 16% 16% 0% check their material costs etc. For
Employee Cost 7% 8% 9% 9% 10% 10% 10% 11% 11% 11% services firms, look at employee costs.
Selling and Admin Cost 19% 21% 21% 21% 16% 15% 15% 14% 14% 8%
Operating Profit 890 983 1,159 1,316 1,518 1,511 1,615 1,736 1,792 2,002 2,002
Operating Profit Margin 17% 16% 16% 17% 19% 20% 21% 20% 21% 21% 21%
Other Income 57 109 128 158 217 296 293 225 205 325 325
Other Income as % of Sales 1.1% 1.8% 1.8% 2.0% 2.8% 3.9% 3.8% 2.6% 2.4% 3.4% 3.4%
Depreciation 103 85 97 115 133 143 162 177 220 240 240
Interest 54 59 54 40 48 54 53 60 50 31 31
Interest Coverage(Times) 16 17 22 34 33 31 33 30 36 68 68
Profit before tax (PBT) 790 948 1,136 1,319 1,554 1,611 1,693 1,725 1,728 2,056 2,056
% Growth YOY 20% 20% 16% 18% 4% 5% 2% 0% 19%
PBT Margin 15% 15% 16% 17% 20% 21% 22% 20% 20% 22% 22%
Tax 146 183 219 251 300 330 335 279 280 361 361
Net profit 644 766 916 1,068 1,254 1,280 1,358 1,446 1,448 1,695 1,695
% Growth YOY 19% 20% 17% 17% 2% 6% 7% 0% 17%
Net Profit Margin 12% 12% 13% 14% 16% 17% 18% 17% 17% 18% 18%
EPS 3.7 4.4 5.3 6.1 7.1 7.3 7.7 8.2 8.2 9.6 9.6
% Growth YOY 19% 20% 16% 17% 2% 6% 6% 0% 17%
Price to earning 28.8 31.2 34.2 43.7 35.1 38.2 42.6 49.9 54.9 56.4 61.0
Price 107 137 180 266 250 277 328 409 450 541 584
Dividend Payout 37.8% 34.2% 33.4% 33.0% 31.6% 31.0% 81.3% 33.7% 36.7% 49.6%
Market Cap 18,571 23,869 31,327 46,644 43,960 48,855 57,848 72,206 79,528 95,528
Retained Earnings 401 504 610 716 857 883 254 959 917 855
Buffett's $1 Test 11.1

TRENDS: 10 YEARS 7 YEARS 5 YEARS 3 YEARS

Sales Growth 6.8% 4.4% 4.0% 7.4%
PBT Growth 11.2% 8.9% 5.8% 6.7%
PBT Margin 18.8% 20.2% 20.9% 20.6%
Price to Earning 41.5 45.8 48.4 53.7

Check for long term vs short term trends here. Check if the growth over
past 3 or 5 years has slowed down / improved compared to long term (7 to
10 years) growth numbers.
 Common Size P&L
Rs Cr Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17
Sales 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Raw Material Cost 53% 34% 34% 34% 50% 35% 36% 36% 36% 52%
Change in Inventory 2% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 1% 2%
Power and Fuel 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0%
Other Mfr. Exp 1% 16% 16% 16% 1% 16% 16% 16% 16% 0%
Employee Cost 7% 8% 9% 9% 10% 10% 10% 11% 11% 11%
Selling and Admin Cost 19% 21% 21% 21% 16% 15% 15% 14% 14% 8%
Other Expenses 3% 3% 3% 3% 4% 2% 2% 2% 2% 10%
Operating Profit 13% 17% 15% 16% 18% 19% 19% 21% 19% 17%
Other Income 1% 2% 2% 2% 3% 4% 4% 3% 2% 3%
Depreciation 2% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 3% 3%
Interest 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0%
Profit Before Tax 15% 15% 16% 17% 20% 21% 22% 20% 20% 22%
Tax 3% 3% 3% 3% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 4%
Net Profit 12% 12% 13% 14% 16% 17% 18% 17% 17% 18%
Dividend Amount 5% 4% 4% 5% 5% 5% 14% 6% 6% 9%

Common Size Balance Sheet

Rs Cr Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17
Equity Share Capital 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
Reserves 37% 41% 47% 52% 58% 60% 64% 65% 69% 69%
Borrowings 25% 24% 13% 12% 12% 13% 11% 8% 6% 4%
Other Liabilities 34% 31% 37% 33% 28% 25% 24% 25% 24% 25%
Total Liabilities 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Net Block 39% 34% 33% 31% 24% 25% 23% 23% 24% 21%
Capital Work in Progress 1% 2% 0% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 2% 1%
Investments 11% 20% 20% 30% 39% 42% 44% 40% 30% 38%
Other Assets 49% 45% 46% 39% 36% 32% 32% 36% 44% 40%
Total Assets 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Receivables 11% 10% 13% 12% 12% 8% 8% 10% 9% 5%
Inventory 20% 18% 18% 16% 16% 14% 14% 15% 15% 16%
Cash & Bank 10% 8% 10% 5% 3% 4% 4% 4% 9% 12%
 A common-size financial statement is displays line
items as a percentage of one selected or common
figure. Creating common-size financial statements
makes it easier to analyze a company over time and
compare it with its peers. Using common-size
financial statements helps investors spot trends that a
raw financial statement may not uncover.
 Cash Flow Statement
DABUR INDIA LTD
Rs Cr Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Total
Cash from Operating Activity (CFO) 597 870 1,098 1,047 1,187 1,227 1,092 1,499 1,614 2,115 12,345
Cash from Investing Activity -261 -622 -105 -876 -730 -807 -541 338 -517 -1,406 -5,526
Cash from Financing Activity -198 -234 -804 -417 -374 -339 -577 -1,888 -1,043 -613 -6,488
Net Cash Flow 138 13 190 -245 82 81 -27 -51 54 95 331
CFO/Sales 11% 14% 16% 13% 15% 16% 14% 18% 19% 22%
CFO/Net Profit 93% 114% 120% 98% 95% 96% 80% 104% 111% 125%
Capex** 375 315 212 364 565 607 937 1156 1638 1238
FCF 222 554 887 683 622 620 155 343 -24 877 4,938
Average FCF (3 Years) 398
FCF/Sales 4% 9% 13% 9% 8% 8% 2% 4% 0% 9%
FCF/Net Profit 34% 73% 97% 64% 50% 49% 11% 24% -2% 52%

** Manually enter this number;

Convert to Rs Crore if not already
done in the Annual Reports; Use
"Capital expenditure" number
shown under "Cash Flow from
Investing Activities" segment of
Consolidated Cash Flow Statement
available in the Annual Reports
 Earnings Power Value (Bruce Greenwald)
Explanation - Earnings power value (EPV) is a technique for valuing stocks by making an assumption about the sustainability
capital but assuming no further growth. EPV formula = Adjusted Earnings / Cost of Capital

Company Name DABUR INDIA LTD

Latest Year Ended Mar-21

Calculation of Normalized Earnings

(Rs Crore) Mar/17 Mar/18 Mar/19 Mar/20 Mar/21
Sales 7,614 7,722 8,515 8,685 9,562
EBIT 1,665 1,746 1,784 1,777 2,087
Less - Adjustment 8 9 9 9 10
EBIT (Adjusted) 1,656 1,737 1,776 1,768 2,076
EBIT Margin'(Adjusted) 22% 22% 21% 20% 22%
Tax Rate 21% 20% 16% 16% 18%
Earnings After Tax (Adjusted) 1,317 1,393 1,489 1,482 1,712
Depreciation 143 162 177 220 240
Maintenance Capex (See Table Below) 671 910 958 1,596 1,020
Earnings After Tax (Normalized, A) 789 645 707 107 932
Reported Profit After Tax (B) 1,277 1,354 1,442 1,445 1,693

EPV Process (as per Greenwald's book, slightly modified) -

1. Start with operating earnings, i.e. EBIT. Adjust any one-time charges. I deduct 0.5% of reported EBIT as this adjustment
2. Apply a tax rate to the adjusted EBIT. I use the actual tax rate calculated from the Income Statement. After reducing this tax,
3. Add back Depreciation
4. Subtract Maintenance Capex
5. After these four steps, you arrive at Normalized Earnings
6. Divide this Normalized Earnings number by the Discount Rate to arrive at EPV. I use 12% discount rate/cost of capital.
7. Note that Greenwald's process as per his book is slightly more detailed than what I have used here

Calculation of Maintenance Capex

(Rs Crore) Mar/17 Mar/18 Mar/19 Mar/20 Mar/21
Fixed Assets (PPE) 1,958 2,028 1,969 2,253 2,243
Net Sales 7,614 7,722 8,515 8,685 9,562
PPE/Sales 0.26 0.26 0.23 0.26 0.23
Change in Sales -255 108 793 170 877
Total Capex 607 937 1,156 1,638 1,238
Growth Capex -64 27 198 42 218
Maintenance Capex 671 910 958 1,596 1,020

Calculating Maintenance Capex, as per Greenwald's book -

1. Calculate the Average Gross Property Plant and Equipment (PPE) / Sales ratio over 5-7 years
2. Calculate current year’s increase in sales
3. Multiply PPE/Sales ratio by increase in sales to arrive at Growth Capex
4. Maintenance Capex = Total Capex figure from the cash flow statement minus Growth Capex calculated above
(Bruce Greenwald)
ng an assumption about the sustainability of current earnings and the cost of
mula = Adjusted Earnings / Cost of Capital

EPV with Different Cost of Capital

Discount Rate EPV Net Cash** Total EPV Per Share
10% 9,323 4,135 13,458 76
12% 7,769 4,135 11,904 67
15% 6,215 4,135 10,350 59
Current Market Cap (Rs Crore) 103,322
EPV as % of Market Cap 12%

** Change the "Cash & Bank" number in "Balance Sheet" sheet

(Row #19) so that the correct number automatically reflects here

% of reported EBIT as this adjustment

Income Statement. After reducing this tax, we arrive at Adjusted Earnings After Tax

use 12% discount rate/cost of capital.

I have used here

er 5-7 years

wth Capex calculated above

 Dhandho Intrinsic Value Calculation

DABUR INDIA LTD DABUR INDIA LTD

Dhandho IV - Lower Range Dhandho IV - Higher Range
Year FCF (Rs Cr) PV of FCF (Rs Cr) Assumed FCF Growth Year
0 Excess Cash (Latest) 4,618 Year 1-3 15% 0 Excess Cash (Latest)
1 FY18 458 409 Year 4-6 10% 1 FY18
2 FY19 527 420 Year 7-10 5% 2 FY19
3 FY20 606 431 Discount Rate 12% 3 FY20
4 FY21 667 424 4 FY21
5 FY22 733 416 Last 5-Years' CAGR 5 FY22
6 FY23 807 409 Sales 4% 6 FY23
7 FY24 847 383 PBT 6% 7 FY24
8 FY25 889 359 FCF 7% 8 FY25
9 FY26 934 337 9 FY26
10 FY27 980 316 10 FY27
10 9,805 3,157 10
Intrinsic Value 11,679 Intrinsic Value
Current Mkt. Cap. 103,322 Current Mkt. Cap.
Premium/(Discount) to IV 785% Premium/(Discount) to IV

Note: See explanation of this model here

P.S. In case of companies earning negative FCF, where this model will not work, you must use a normalized positive FCF as th
number. This number is your assumption of FCF the business will earn in a normal year, without capex. Check the history o
business while arriving at your assumption, and use your judgment wisely without twisting the model to fit your version of re
Calculation

DABUR INDIA LTD

Dhandho IV - Higher Range
FCF (Rs Cr) PV of FCF (Rs Cr) Assumed FCF Growth
Excess Cash (Latest) 4,618 Year 1-3 20%
478 427 Year 4-6 15%
574 457 Year 7-10 10%
689 490 Discount Rate 12%
792 503
911 517
1,047 531
1,152 521
1,267 512
1,394 503
1,533 494
22,998 7,405
Intrinsic Value 16,977
Current Mkt. Cap. 103,322
Premium/(Discount) to IV 509%

use a normalized positive FCF as the starting

, without capex. Check the history of this
ng the model to fit your version of reality.
 Ben Graham Formula (Low Range) Ben Graham Formula (High Range
Company Name DABUR INDIA LTD Company Name
Year Ended Mar/21 Year Ended

Avg 5-Yr Net Profit (Rs Crore) 1,445.4 Avg 5-Yr Net Profit (Rs Crore)
PE Ratio at 0% Growth 8.5 PE Ratio at 0% Growth
Long-Term Growth Rate 3.1 Long-Term Growth Rate

Ben Graham Value (Rs Crore) 21,267 Ben Graham Value (Rs Crore)
Current Market Cap (Rs Crore) 103,322 Current Market Cap (Rs Crore)

EXPLANATION
Ben Graham's Original Formula: Value = EPS x (8.5 + 2G)
Here, EPS is the trailing 12 month EPS, 8.5 is the P/E ratio of a stock with 0% growth and g is the growth rate for the next 7-10

Ben Graham's Revised Formula: Value = [EPS x (8.5 + 2G) x 4.4] / Y

Here, 4.4 is what Graham determined to be his minimum required rate of return. At the time of around 1962 when Graham was

Note: I have used Graham's original formula in the above calculations

m Formula (High Range)
DABUR INDIA LTD
Mar/21

1,445.4
8.5
6.2

30,248
103,322

is the growth rate for the next 7-10 years

of around 1962 when Graham was publicizing his works, the risk free interest rate was 4.4% but to adjust to the present, we divide this num
resent, we divide this number by today’s AAA corporate bond rate, represented by Y in the formula above.
 Dicounted Cash Flow Valuation
DABUR INDIA LTD

Initial Cash Flow (Rs Cr) 398 9,071

###
Years 1-5 6-10 9%
FCF Growth Rate 15% 12%
Discount Rate 12%
Terminal Growth Rate 2%

Net Debt Level (Rs Cr) (4,135)

Year FCF Growth Present Value

1 458 15% 409
2 527 15% 420
3 606 15% 431
4 697 15% 443
5 801 15% 455
6 898 12% 455
7 1,005 12% 455
8 1,126 12% 455
9 1,261 12% 455
10 1,412 12% 455

Final Calculations
Terminal Year 1,441
PV of Year 1-10 Cash Flows 4,432
Terminal Value 4,639
Total PV of Cash Flows 9,071
Current Market Cap (Rs Cr) ###

Note: See explanation of DCF here

 Valuation
D

DCF Value (As calculated in cell B29)

Current Market Cap
DCF as % of Current Mkt Cap
 Expected Returns Model
DABUR INDIA LTD
Particulars Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18
Net Profit (Rs Crore) 645 763 914 1,066 1,251 1,277 1,354
Net Profit Margin 12% 12% 13% 14% 16% 17% 18%
Return on Equity 38% 37% 35% 32% 30% 26% 24%

Calculations (Enter values only in black cells)

Estimated CAGR in Net Profit over next 10 years 12%
Estimated Net Profit after 10 years (Rs Cr) 5,259
Current P/E (x) 61.0
Exit P/E in the 10th year from now (x, Estimated) 20.0
Esti. Market Cap (10th year from now; Rs Cr) 105,183
Cost of Capital/Discount Rate 12%
Discounted Value (Rs Cr) 33,866
Current Market Cap (Rs Cr) 103,322

Note: See explanation of this model here

el
Mar/19 Mar/20 Mar/21 CAGR (9-Yr) CAGR (5-Yr)
1,442 1,445 1,693 11% 6%
17% 17% 18%
26% 22% 22%
 Intrinsic Value Range
DABUR INDIA LTD
Lower Higher Remember! Give importance to a stock's valuations / fair
EPV 11,904 only "after" you have answered in "Yes" to these two ques
Dhandho 11,679 16,977 (1) Is this business simple to be understood? and (2) Ca
Ben Graham 21,267 30,248 understand this business?
DCF 9,071
Don't try to quantify everything. In stock research, the less
Expected Return 33,866 mathematical you are, the more simple, sensible, and usef
Current Market Cap. 103,322 be your analysis and results. Great analysis is generally "b
the-envelope".

Also, your calculated "fair value" will be proven wrong in

future, so don't invest your savings just because you fall i
with it. Don't look for perfection. It is overrated. Focus
decisions, not outcomes. Look for disconfirming eviden
 importance to a stock's valuations / fair value
ave answered in "Yes" to these two questions -
ess simple to be understood? and (2) Can I
understand this business?

fy everything. In stock research, the less non-

are, the more simple, sensible, and useful will
nd results. Great analysis is generally "back-of-
the-envelope".

lated "fair value" will be proven wrong in the

vest your savings just because you fall in love
ook for perfection. It is overrated. Focus on
outcomes. Look for disconfirming evidence.
DABUR INDIA LTD
[Link]
Narration Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21
Sales 2,199 2,128 2,273 2,212 2,353 1,865 1,980 2,516 2,729 2,337
% Growth YOY 7% -12% -13% 14% 16% 25%
Expenses 1,754 1,671 1,816 1,722 1,860 1,513 1,563 1,947 2,155 1,895
Operating Profit 445 457 458 490 493 352 417 569 574 442
Other Income 76 -9 54 42 54 56 72 88 81 85
Depreciation 45 46 53 54 54 59 57 60 57 67
Interest 17 12 15 15 10 9 8 7 7 9
Profit before tax 460 389 443 462 482 340 424 590 591 452
PBT Margin 21% 18% 19% 21% 20% 18% 21% 23% 22% 19%
% Growth YOY 5% -13% -4% 28% 23% 33%
Tax 92 18 79 58 83 59 83 107 97 74
Net profit 366 370 363 403 398 281 342 482 492 378
% Growth YOY 9% -24% -6% 20% 24% 34%
OPM 20% 21% 20% 22% 21% 19% 21% 23% 21% 19%
COMPANY NAME DABUR INDIA LTD
LATEST VERSION 2.10 PLEASE DO NOT MAKE ANY CH
CURRENT VERSION 2.10

META
Number of shares 176.79
Face Value 1
Current Price 584.45
Market Capitalization 103322.09

PROFIT & LOSS

Report Date Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17
Sales 5293.94 6140.17 7058.12 7795.49 7868.77 7613.59
Raw Material Cost 2,795.45 2,111.59 2,412.91 2,633.97 3,920.09 2,659.55
Change in Inventory 103.05 -24.88 43.45 25.91 70.53 23.02
Power and Fuel 65.44 75.61 80.47 90.35 84 87.48
Other Mfr. Exp 77.34 963.54 1120.15 1208.32 89.1 1247.42
Employee Cost 387.54 499.02 607.79 690.17 794.1 790.3
Selling and admin 1024.53 1279.37 1491.09 1640.96 1235.07 1161.4
Other Expenses 156.52 203.06 230.05 241.22 298.66 178.97
Other Income 57.4 108.94 128.06 158.05 217.19 296.05
Depreciation 103.24 84.72 97.49 114.98 133.19 142.86
Interest 53.84 58.9 54.15 40.12 48.48 54.03
Profit before tax 790.49 948.42 1135.53 1319.36 1553.8 1610.65
Tax 146.38 182.63 219.08 250.89 299.9 330.34
Net profit 644.89 763.42 913.92 1065.83 1251.15 1276.94
Dividend Amount 243.89 261.44 305.16 351.3 395.8 396.34

Quarters
Report Date Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20
Sales 2199.21 2128.19 2273.29 2211.97 2352.97 1865.36
Expenses 1753.82 1671.02 1815.65 1722.44 1860.2 1513.49
Other Income 75.77 -9.28 53.6 41.99 54.46 55.77
Depreciation 44.85 46.22 52.75 54.47 54.4 58.83
Interest 16.74 12.40 15.25 15.24 10.49 8.56
Profit before tax 459.57 389.27 443.24 461.81 482.34 340.25
Tax 92.36 17.78 79.43 58.17 83.47 58.65
Net profit 366.05 370.43 363.12 402.97 397.7 281.17
Operating Profit 445.39 457.17 457.64 489.53 492.77 351.87

BALANCE SHEET
Report Date Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17
Equity Share Capital 174.21 174.29 174.38 175.65 175.91 176.15
Reserves 1542.97 1920.92 2481.58 3178.49 3994.7 4671.24
Borrowings 1,068.09 1,151.35 708.14 733.56 805.22 975.00
Other Liabilities 1415.06 1461.98 1947.9 2018.58 1956.47 1909.85
Total 4200.33 4708.54 5312 6106.28 6932.3 7732.24
Net Block 1641.23 1581.88 1766.9 1877.13 1667.4 1958.4
Capital Work in Progress 26.76 92.57 21.71 50.3 44.8 42.1
Investments 482.52 928.62 1076.47 1813.37 2690.74 3240.16
Other Assets 2049.82 2105.47 2446.92 2365.48 2529.36 2491.58
Total 4200.33 4708.54 5312 6106.28 6932.3 7732.24
Receivables 461.68 484.13 675.3 710.84 809.2 650.42
Inventory 823.92 844.44 972.51 973.27 1,096.50 1,106.71
Cash & Bank 418.42 361.81 519.38 276.04 219.82 304.81
No. of Equity Shares 1742100854 1.743E+09 1.744E+09 1.757E+09 1.759E+09 1.762E+09
New Bonus Shares ###
Face value 1 1 1 1 1 1

CASH FLOW:
Report Date Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17
Cash from Operating Activity 596.93 869.54 1098.3 1047.21 1186.99 1226.94
Cash from Investing Activity -260.5 -622.16 -104.5 -875.9 -730.33 -807.07
Cash from Financing Activity -198.46 -233.98 -803.69 -416.77 -374.31 -338.97
Net Cash Flow 137.97 13.4 190.11 -245.46 82.35 80.9

PRICE: 106.6 136.95 179.65 265.55 249.9 277.35

DERIVED:
Adjusted Equity Shares in Cr 174.21 174.29 174.38 175.65 175.91 176.15
DO NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THIS SHEET

Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21

7721.85 8514.99 8684.64 9561.65
2,775.35 3,067.95 3,138.49 4,996.16
65.93 -12.64 65.04 207.20
93.91 105.26 107.12
1219 1327.63 1387.99
793.36 938.55 949.16 1033.46
1135.38 1183.56 1224.59 784.36
155.71 143.41 150.08 953.2
293.25 225.36 205.38 325.29
162.18 176.9 220.45 240.13
53.05 59.58 49.54 30.81
1693.09 1724.87 1727.64 2056.02
335.35 278.62 279.72 361.07
1354.39 1442.33 1444.96 1693.3
1100.94 485.73 530.13 839.52

Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21

1979.98 2516.04 2728.84 2336.79
1563.39 1946.94 2154.75 1894.91
71.8 87.59 80.93 84.98
56.74 59.63 57.17 66.59
7.83 7.49 6.86 8.63
423.82 589.57 590.99 451.64
82.52 106.71 97.49 74.35
341.78 481.68 492.02 377.82
416.59 569.1 574.09 441.88

Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21

 176.15 176.63 176.71 176.74
5530.37 5455.05 6429.04 7486.79
937.59 699.37 521.99 483.27
2057.52 2105.59 2208.84 2700.33
8701.63 8436.64 9336.58 10847.13
2028.11 1969.06 2252.68 2242.92
41.51 63.76 146.57 147.3
3805.17 3358.76 2800.26 4159.63
2826.84 3045.06 4137.07 4297.28
8701.63 8436.64 9336.58 10847.13
706.08 833.56 813.89 561.58
1,256.18 1,300.53 1,379.57 1,734.28
306.06 328.16 811.37 1329.03
1.762E+09 1766291141 1767063892

1 1 1 1

Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21

1091.5 1499.13 1613.62 2114.67
-540.93 337.58 -516.63 -1405.78
-577.11 -1888.2 -1042.97 -613.41
-26.54 -51.49 54.02 95.48

328.4 408.8 450.05 540.5

176.15 176.63 176.71 176.74

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