Probability and Statistics

Grade 10
Probability

Lesson 6. Mutually Exclusive and Non-mutually Exclusive Events

A bowl contains 15 chips numbered 1 to 15. If a chip is drawn randomly from the bowl, what is the
probability that it is:
a. 7 or 15? c. even or divisible by 3?
b. 5 or a number divisible by 3? d. a number divisible by 3 or divisible by 4?

Solution:
𝑺 = {𝟏, 𝟐, 𝟑, 𝟒, 𝟓, 𝟔, 𝟕, 𝟖, 𝟗, 𝟏𝟎, 𝟏𝟏, 𝟏𝟐, 𝟏𝟑, 𝟏𝟒, 𝟏𝟓}
1 1 2
a. 𝑃(7𝑜𝑟15) = + =
15 15 15

b. Since 3,6,9,12 and 15 are divisible by 3 therefore:

1 5 6 2
P(5 or a number divisible by 3) = + = 𝑜𝑟
15 15 15 3

c. Since 2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12 and 14 are even numbers while 3,6,9,12 and 15 are divisible by 3, it shows that
6 and 12 are the intersection of two events, therefore:
7 5 2 10 2
P(even or a number divisible by 3) = + − = 𝑜𝑟
15 15 15 15 3

d. Since 3,6,9,12 and 15 are divisible by 3 and 4,8 and 12 are divisible by 4, it shows that 12 is the
intersection of two events, therefore:
5 3 1 7
P(number divisible by 3 or 4) = + − =
15 15 15 15

The events in the above activity may be either mutually exclusive or not mutually exclusive. Events that
cannot occur at the same time are called mutually exclusive events.
Consider the Venn diagram below. What do you notice about the events A and B? These two events are
mutually exclusive. In problem 1b of the preceding activity, the event of getting a 5 and the event of getting a
number divisible by 3 from the set {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15} are mutually exclusive events.

If two events, A and B, are mutually exclusive, then the probability that
either A or B occurs is the sum of their probabilities. In symbols,
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)

On the other hand, the event of getting a number divisible by 3 or the event of getting a number divisible
by 4 in the set {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10,
11, 12, 13, 14, 15} are not mutually exclusive events. Observe that a subset of numbers divisible by 3 also
contains an element which is a subset of the numbers divisible by 4.
The Venn diagram below shows events A and B which are not mutually exclusive because A and B intersect.
Note that there are outcomes that are common to A and B which is the intersection of A and B.

If two events, A and B, are not mutually exclusive, then the probability that
A B either A or B occurs is the sum of their probabilities decreased by the
probability of both occurring. In symbols,

P(A or B)= P(A)+ P(B) – P(A and B).

P (A or B)

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Lesson 7. Independent and Dependent Events

Consider the situations below and answer the questions that follow.

Situation 1: Consider a box that contains 14 red balls, 12 blue balls, and 9 yellow balls. A ball is drawn at random
and the color is noted and then put back inside the box. Then, another ball is drawn at random. Find the
probability that:
a. both are blue. b. the first is red and the second is yellow.

Solution:
12 12 14 9
a. 𝑃(𝑏𝑙𝑢𝑒, 𝑏𝑙𝑢𝑒) = ( ) ( ) b. 𝑃(𝑟𝑒𝑑, 𝑦𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑜𝑤) = ( ) ( )
35 35 35 35

Situation 2: Consider a box that contains 14 red balls, 12 blue balls, and 9 yellow balls. Suppose that two balls
are drawn one after the other without putting back the first ball. Find the probability that:
a. the first is red and the second is blue. b. both balls are yellow.

Solution:
14 12 9 8
a. 𝑃(𝑟𝑒𝑑, 𝑏𝑙𝑢𝑒) = ( ) ( ) b. 𝑃(𝑦𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑜𝑤, 𝑦𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑜𝑤) = ( ) ( )
35 34 35 34

In situation 1, the probability of getting a blue ball in the second draw is not affected by the probability of
drawing a red ball on the first draw, since the first ball is put back inside the box prior to the second draw. Thus,
the two events are independent of each other. Two events are independent if the outcome of one event does
not affect the outcome of the other event.

Example: When a coin is tossed and a die is rolled, the event that a coin shows up head and the event
that a die shows up a 5 are independent events.
Two events are independent if the occurrence of one of the events gives us no information about whether
or not the other event will occur; that is, the events have no influence on each other.

If two events, A and B, are independent, then the probability of both events occurring is the product of
the probability of A and the probability of B. In symbols,

P(A and B) = P(A) • P(B)

When the outcome of one event affects the outcome of another event, they are dependent events. In
situation 2, if the ball was not placed back in the box, then drawing the two balls would have been dependent
events. In this case, the event of drawing a yellow ball on the second draw is dependent on the event of drawing
a yellow ball on the first draw.
Example: A box contains 7 white marbles and 7 red marbles. What is the probability of drawing 2 white
marbles and 1 red marble in succession without replacement?
7
Solution: On the first draw, the probability of getting a white marble is . On the second draw, the
14
6 7
probability of getting a white marble is . Then on the third draw, the probability of getting a red marble is .
13 12
7 6 7 294 7
So, 𝑃(1 𝑤ℎ𝑖𝑡𝑒, 1 𝑤ℎ𝑖𝑡𝑒, 1 𝑟𝑒𝑑) = ∙ ∙ = 𝑜𝑟
14 13 12 2184 52

If two events, A and B, are dependent, then the probability of both events occurring is the product of
the probability of A and the probability of B after A occurs. In symbols,

P(A and B) = P(A) • P(B following A)

The symbols, P(A and B)= P(A) • P(B following A) is used in this lesson to show that two events
A and B are independent. The symbol, P(B following A) means “the probability of B following the
occurrence of A.” In the sequence of the lesson, the concept of conditional probability is discussed
after the lesson on dependent and independent events.

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Activity no. 1

Consider the situation below and answer the questions that follow. Show your solution.
1. A restaurant serves a bowl of candies to their customers. The bowl of candies Gabriel receives has 10
chocolate candies, 8 coffee candies, and 12 caramel candies. After Gabriel chooses a candy, he eats it.
Find the probability of getting candies with the indicated flavors.
a. P (chocolate or coffee) c. P (coffee or caramel)
b. P (caramel or not coffee) d. P (chocolate or not caramel)
2. Mark has pairs of pants in three different colors, blue, black, and brown. He has 5 colored shirts: a white, a
red, a yellow, a blue, and a mixed-colored shirt. What is the probability that Mark wears a black pair of
pants and a red shirt on a given day?

Activity no. 2
Consider each problem below. Draw a Venn diagram for each. Determine whether the events are mutually
exclusive or not mutually exclusive. Then, find the probability.
1. Mario has 45 red chips, 12 blue chips, and 24 white chips. What is the probability that Mario randomly selects
a red chip or a white chip?
2. Of 240 students, 176 are on the honor roll, 48 are members of the varsity team, and 36 are in the honor roll
and are also members of the varsity team. What is the probability that a randomly selected student is on the honor
roll or is a member of the varsity team?
3. Ruby’s dog has 8 puppies. The puppies include white females, 3 mixed-color females, 1 white male, and 2
mixed-color males. Ruby wants to keep one puppy. What is the probability that she randomly chooses a puppy that is
female and white?

Activity no. 3
In previous lessons, you learned about counting techniques and you were able to differentiate permutation from combination. In the next activity,
observe how the concepts of permutation and combination are used in solving probability problems.
Consider the situation below and answer the questions that follow. Show your solution.
There are a total of 48 students in Grade 10 Charity. Twenty are boys and 28 are girls.
1. If a teacher randomly selects a student to represent the class in a school meeting, what is the probability
that a
a. boy is chosen? b. girl is chosen?
2. If a committee of 3 students is formed, what is the probability that
a. all are girls? b. two are boys and one is a girl?

Activity no. 4
Determine whether the events are independent or dependent. Then, find the probability.
1. A toy box contains 12 toys, 8 stuffed animals, and 3 board games. Maria randomly chooses 2 toys for the child she
is babysitting to play with. What is the probability that she chose 2 stuffed animals as the first two choices?
2. A basket contains 6 apples, 5 bananas, 4 oranges, and 5 guavas. Dominic randomly chooses one piece of fruit,
eats it, and chooses another piece of fruit. What is the probability that he chose a banana and then an apple?
3. Nick has 4 black pens, 3 blue pens, and 2 red pens in his school bag. Nick randomly picks two pens out of his
school bag. What is the probability that Nick chose two blue pens, if he replaced the first pen back in his pocket
before choosing a second pen?

Activity no. 5

Consider the situation below and answer the questions that follow. Show your solution.
1. A bag of jelly beans contains 10 red, 6 green, 7 yellow, and 5 orange jelly beans. What is the probability of
randomly choosing a red jelly bean, replacing it, randomly choosing another red jelly bean, replacing it, and then
randomly choosing an orange jelly bean?
2. Rene and Cris went to a grocery store to buy drinks. They chose from 10 different brands of juice drinks, 6
different brands of carbonated drinks, and 3 different brands of mineral water. What is the probability that Rene
and Cris both chose juice drinks, if Rene randomly chose first and liked the first brand he picked up?

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