chemical engineering research and design 9 0 ( 2 0 1 2 ) 541–547

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Chemical Engineering Research and Design

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/cherd

Analysing gas well production data using a simplified

decline curve analysis method

Alireza Bahadori ∗
Environmental Innovations Research Centre, School of Environmental Science & Management, Southern Cross University, PO Box 157,
Lismore, New South Wales, Australia

a b s t r a c t

Decline curves are one of the most extensively used forms of data analysis employed in evaluating gas reserves and
predicting future production. The parameters determined from the classical fit of historical data can be used to predict
future production and the most popular and widely accepted method is Arp’s equation. In the present work, simple-
to-use method, which is easier than existing approaches, less complicated with fewer calculations, is formulated
to arrive at an appropriate estimation of nominal (initial) decline rate, and the Arp’s decline-curve exponent. The
results can be used in follow-up calculations for analysis of past trends of decline in production performance for
gas wells as well as reservoirs. Using this method is quite simple and accurate to generate the coefficients of the
equations instead of opting for ready-generated coefficients with uncertainty. The engineers can easily develop their
own computer program to compute the coefficients and hence obtain the solution for gas reserves and production
performance in reservoirs.
© 2011 The Institution of Chemical Engineers. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Keywords: Decline-curve analysis; Arp’s decline-curve exponent; Cumulative gas production; Gas reservoir

1. Introduction ized time for gas reservoirs producing at constant bottom-hole

pressures during boundary-dominated flow. The calcula-
Estimating reserves and predicting production in reservoirs tion of the normalized times involves an iterative process
has been a challenge for a long time (Khanamiri, 2010). Decline (Khanamiri, 2010).
curve analysis (DCA) is a method to fit observed production Palacio and Blasingame (1993) addressed the issue of vari-
rates of individualwells, group of wells, or reservoirs by a able, non-constant bottom-hole pressures in gas wells. They
mathematical function in order to predict the performance introduced methods, which use a modified time function
of the future production by extrapolating the fitted decline for analyzing the performance of gas wells. They have also
function (Khanamiri, 2010). presented a new algorithm along with the modified time
Many of the existing decline curve analysis models are function to compute gas in place, which are capable of mod-
heuristic and are based on the equations of Arps (1945) eling the behavior of production data for variable rate and/or
who proposed that the curvature in the production-rate- variable pressure drop conditions. Like normalized time, the
versus-time curve can be expressed mathematically by the calculation of pseudo-equivalent time is an iterative process
hyperbolic family of equations. Existing decline curve analysis (Khanamiri, 2010).
techniques, include three Arps (1945) models (exponen- Arps’ models are still the preferred method for forecasting
tial, hyperbolic, and harmonic). Fetkovich (1980) introduced oil and gas production and proven reserves. These methods
decline curve analysis by type curves. Type curve matching is have played a very important role in the exploration and
essentially a graphical technique for visual matching of pro- development of oil and gas fields worldwide (Arps, 1945, 1956;
duction data using preplotted curves on a log–log paper. Fetkovich et al., 1987, 1996; Marhaendrajana and Blasingame,
Fraim and Wattenbarger (1987) introduced a normalized 2001; Pratikno et al., 2003; Li and Horne, 2005, 2007). The main
time function that linearizes the rate decline against normal- characteristics of these decline curves can be used to select

∗
Tel.: +61 2 6621 2669.
E-mail addresses: [email protected], [email protected]
Received 28 May 2011; Received in revised form 7 August 2011; Accepted 12 August 2011
0263-8762/$ – see front matter © 2011 The Institution of Chemical Engineers. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.cherd.2011.08.014
542 chemical engineering research and design 9 0 ( 2 0 1 2 ) 541–547

cumulative gas production, Gp , can be expressed mathemati-

Nomenclature cally (Ahmed, 2006):

t2
A empirical parameter

B empirical parameter Gp = qt dt (2)
t1
b Arps’ decline-curve exponent.
C empirical parameter Replacing the flow rate, qt , in the above equation with the
D empirical parameter three individual expressions that describe types of decline
Di nominal (initial) decline rate, 1/unit time. curves (Eqs. (3)–(5)), and integrating gives the following (Arps,
Gp (t) cumulative gas production at time t, MMscf 1945):
i index Exponential b = 0:
j index
m matrix row index for m × n matrix (qi − qt )
n matrix column index for m × n matrix Gp(t) = (3)
Di
P′ polynomial
qi initial gas flow rate at time t = 0, MMscf/unit Hyperbolic 0 < b < 1:
time
qt gas flow rate at time t, MMscf/unit time  qi
  q 1−b 
t
t time, unit time Gp(t) = 1− (4)
Di (1 − b) qi
u coefficient of polynomial
V Vandermonde matrix Harmonic b = 1:
˛ matrix element
q  q 
i i
Gp(t) = ln (5)
Unit conversion to SI Di qt
1 MMScf 28,317 Standard m3
Since estimating reserves and predicting production in
reservoirs has been a challenge for a long time many efforts
the flow-rate decline model that is appropriate for describing have been put into the research during the past few decades
the rate–time relationship of the hydrocarbon system (Ahmed, which takes into account initial production rate, initial decline
2006). It need to be emphasized that the Arp’s method is still rate and the Arps’ decline-curve exponent, “b”. The decline
being used because of its simplicity and since it is an empiri- curves are characterized by three factors including initial pro-
cal method, it does not need any reservoir or well parameters, duction rate or the rate at some particular time, curvature
however using Arps’ equations, the parameters of hyperbolic of the decline and rate of decline. These factors are a com-
equation cannot be calculated directly. In that case, using plex function of numerous parameters within the reservoir,
non-linear type curves or using ready-generated coefficients wellbore, and surface-handling facilities.
with uncertainty is necessary. In view of the above mentioned The following three conditions must be considered in
issues, an attempt has been made in the present work to production-decline-curve analysis:
develop a simple-to-use method, which is easier than exist-
ing approaches, less complicated with fewer calculations, to 1. Certain conditions must prevail before we can analyse a
arrive at an appropriate estimation of nominal (initial) decline production decline curve with any degree of reliability.
rate, and the Arps’ decline-curve exponent. The results can be These indicate that the well must have been produced at
used in follow-up calculations for analysis of past trends of capacity under a given set of conditions. The production
decline in production performance (rate versus time and rate decline observed should truly reflect reservoir productiv-
versus cumulative production plots), for gas wells as well as ity and not be the result of an external cause, such as a
reservoirs. change in production conditions, well damage, production
controls, or equipment failure (Ahmed, 2006).
2. Conventional decline-curve analysis
2. Stable reservoir conditions must also prevail in order to
methods
extrapolate decline curves with any degree of reliability.
This condition will normally be met as long as the produc-
Nearly all conventional decline-curve analysis is based on
ing mechanism is not altered. However, when an action is
empirical relationships of production rate versus time, given
taken to improve the recovery of gas, such as infill drilling,
by Arps (1945) as follows:
fluid injection, fracturing, or acidizing, decline-curve anal-
qi ysis can be used to estimate the performance of the well
qt = (1) or reservoir in the absence of the change and compare it to
1/b
(1 + bDi t)
the actual performance with the change (Ahmed, 2006).
where qt is the gas flow rate at time t, MMscf/day; qi is the ini- 3. Production-decline-curve analysis is used in the evaluation
tial gas flow rate, MMscf/day; t is the time, days; Di is the initial of new investments and the audit of previous expenditures.
decline rate, 1/day; and b is the Arps’ decline-curve exponent. Associated with this is the sizing of equipment and facil-
It can be extremely difficult to determine when a gas well ities such as pipelines, plants, and treating facilities. Also
has defined its drainage area and thus to identify the start associated with the economic analysis is the determination
of pseudo-steady-state flow condition. The area under the of reserves for a well, lease, or field. This is an indepen-
decline curve of qt gas flow rate at time t versus time between dent method of reserve estimation, the result of which can
the times t1 and t2 is a measure of the cumulative gas pro- be compared to volumetric or material-balance estimates
duction during this period. Dealing with gas reservoirs, the (Ahmed, 2006).
 chemical engineering research and design 9 0 ( 2 0 1 2 ) 541–547 543

3. Development of simple equations for Table 1 – Tuned coefficients used in Eqs. (12)–(15).
estimation of nominal decline rate and the
Symbol Value
Arps’ decline-curve exponent
A1 2.118598622 × 10−1
The Vandermonde matrix using matlab (2008) is applied to B1 −1.659365061 × 10−1
C1 −1.538999008 × 10−1
adjust the optimum coefficients of governing equations for
D1 1.333050731 × 10−1
predictive tool. A2 1.935448614
Vandermonde matrix is a matrix with the terms of a geo- B2 −7.0779152676913 × 10−2
metric progression in each row, i.e., an m × n matrix (Horn and C2 2.718233391
Johnson, 1991). D2 −2.033559315
A3 −2.565909086
B3 6.622303513 × 10−1
1 ˛1 ˛21 ... ˛n−1
⎡ ⎤
1 C3 −6.512468358
⎢1
⎢ ˛2 ˛22 ... ˛n−1
2
⎥
⎥ D3 4.877667113
˛23 ˛n−1 A4 1.419336198
V = ⎢1 ˛3 ...
⎢ ⎥
3 ⎥ (6) B4 −4.250162509 × 10−1
⎢ .. . . .
⎢ ⎥
. . .. .
⎥ C4 3.946255907
⎣. . . . . ⎦
D4 −2.975690047
1 ˛m ˛2m ... ˛n−1
m

or (qi /q) and Arps’ decline-curve exponent, “b”. To determine the

exponent “b”, enter the correlation with a value of cumula-
Vi,j = ˛i
j−1
(7) tive gas production that corresponds to the last data from the
decline data and the value of the ratio of initial production rate
For all indices i and j, the determinant of a square Vander- to last production rate data on the given decline data (qi /q).
monde matrix (where m = n) can be expressed as (Horn and The exponent “b” is calculated by the first developed corre-
Johnson, 1991): lation using of these two values. Then the initial decline rate
multiplied by time (Di t), can be determined from the 2nd corre-
 lation by entering the value of (qi /q) and the value of calculated
det(V) = (˛j − ˛i ) (8)
“b” by first developed correlation. The data from the literature
1≤i<j≤n
(Gentry, 1972; Ahmed, 2006) are incorporated to develop these
predictive tools. The following methodology has been applied
The Vandermonde matrix evaluates a polynomial at a set
to develop these simple tools.
of points; formally, it transforms coefficients of a polynomial
Firstly, the cumulative gas productions [(Gp )/(tqi )] are cor-
a0 + a1 x + a2 x2 + · · · + an−1 xn−1 to the values the polynomial takes
related as a function of initial gas flow rate over total gas flow
at the point’s ˛i . The non-vanishing of the Vandermonde deter-
rate ratios (qi /q) for different Arps’ decline-curve exponents,
minant for distinct points ˛i shows that, for distinct points, the
“b”, then, the calculated coefficients for these polynomials are
map from coefficients to values at those points is a one-to-one
correlated as a function of Arps’ decline-curve exponent b. The
correspondence, and thus that the polynomial interpolation
derived polynomials are applied to calculate new coefficients
problem is solvable with unique solution; this result is called
for Eq. (11) to predict, the cumulative gas productions. Table 1
the unisolvence theorem (Fulton and Harris, 1991). They are
shows the tuned coefficients for Eqs. (12)–(15) for the initial
thus useful in polynomial interpolation, since solving the
gas flow rate over total gas flow rate ratios (qi /q) according to
system of linear equations Vu = y for u with V an m × n Van-
the available data (Gentry, 1972; Ahmed, 2006).
dermonde matrix is equivalent to finding the coefficients uj of
In brief, the following steps are used to tune the correla-
the polynomial(s) (Fulton and Harris, 1991)
tion’s coefficients.
n−1

P′ (x) = uj xj (9) 1. Correlate the cumulative gas productions as a function of
j=0
total gas flow rate ratios (qi /q) for a given Arps’ decline-
curve exponents, b.
of degree ≤n − 1 which has (have) the property: 2. Repeat step 1 for other Arps’ decline-curve exponents, b
values.
P′ (˛i ) = yi for i = 1, . . . , m (10) 3. Correlate corresponding polynomial coefficients, which are
obtained in previous steps as a function of Arps’ decline-
The Vandermonde matrix can easily be inverted in terms curve exponents, values (b), ˛ = f(b), ˇ = f(b), = f(b),  = f(b)
of Lagrange basis polynomials: each column is the coefficients [see Eqs. (12)–(15)].
of the Lagrange basis polynomial, with terms in increasing
order going down. The resulting solution to the interpolation So, equation represents the proposed governing equation
problem is called the Lagrange polynomial (Fulton and Harris, in which four coefficients are used to correlate the cumu-
1991). lative gas productions as a function of initial gas flow rate
In this work, firstly the initial gas flow rate over total gas over total gas flow rate ratios (qi /q) for different Arps’ decline-
flow rate ratios (qi /q) is estimated in terms of cumulative gas curve exponents, b, where the relevant coefficients have been
production [(Gp )/(tqi )] and Arps’ decline-curve exponent, b, reported in Table 1.
with an upper limit for [(Gp )/(tqi )] of 100. Secondly, nominal q 
i ˇ 
(initial) decline rate, multiplied by time (Di t) is predicted as a =˛+ + + (11)
q (Gp /tqi ) 2 3
function of initial gas flow rate over total gas flow rate ratios (Gp /tqi ) (Gp /tqi )
544 chemical engineering research and design 9 0 ( 2 0 1 2 ) 541–547

where
Table 2 – Tuned coefficients used in Eqs. (17)–(20).
Symbol For (qi /q) values For (qi /q) values
˛ = A1 + B1 b + C1 b2 + D1 b3 (12)
less than 20 more than 20

ˇ = A2 + B2 b + C2 b2 + D2 b3 (13) A1 −5.222598165 × 10−1 2.276792651

B1 −1.081028646 −3.915302290
C1 2.366497869 1.2827542827 × 101
= A3 + B3 b + C3 b2 + D3 b3 (14)
D1 −1.731914040 −1.208374958 × 101
A2 6.759393426 × 10−1 3.482956857 × 10−2
 = A4 + B4 b + C4 b2 + D4 b3 (15) B2 3.306081003 × 10−1 7.921307158 × 10−1
C2 −1.851326609 × 10−1 −1.519770493
These optimum tuned coefficients (A–D) help to cover the D2 1.4518749363 × 10−1 1.765447655
A3 −5.495393636 × 10−2 1.67559713 × 10−5
data reported in the literature for Arps’ decline-curve expo-
B3 2.070275292 × 10−2 −1.4525487139 × 10−2
nents, (b) between 0 and 1 and total gas flow rate ratios (qi /q)
C3 −2.696793918 × 10−2 3.443677534 × 10−2
values up to 100 based on data from Gentry (1972) and Ahmed D3 6.623839988 × 10−2 −2.359635314 × 10−2
(2006). The above mentioned methodology is applied to pre- A4 1.495913209 × 10−3 −1.627581173 × 10−7
dict nominal (initial) decline rate multiply by time, (Di t) as a B4 −9.498763746 × 10−4 7.376847338 × 10−5
function of initial gas flow rate over total gas flow rate ratios C4 1.063433489 × 10−3 −2.008233068 × 10−4
(qi /q) and Arps’ decline-curve exponent, b (see Eqs. (16)–(20)): D4 −1.779760977 × 10−3 1.424991955 × 10−4

 ϕ 
(Di t) = ε + + 2
+ 3
(16) ratios (qi /q) and Arps’ decline-curve exponents (b), in compar-
(qi /q) (qi /q) (qi /q) ison with literature reported data (Gentry, 1972 and Ahmed,
2006). As can be seen, the results show good agreement with
where
the reported data and the proposed simple-to-use correlation
is accurate, reliable and acceptable. Figs. 2 and 3 show the per-
ε = A1 + B1 b + C1 b2 + D1 b3 (17)
formance of proposed correlation for prediction of cumulative
gas production as a function of Arps’ decline-curve exponent
 = A2 + B2 b + C2 b2 + D2 b3 (18) and the ratio of initial gas flow rate over total gas flow rate
(qi /q) in two different view points. Figs. 4 and 5 show the per-
ϕ = A3 + B3 b + C3 b2 + D3 b3 (19) formance of proposed predictive tool for the estimation of
nominal (initial) decline rate multiply by time, (Di t) as a func-
 = A4 + B4 b + C4 b2 + D4 b3 (20) tion of initial gas flow rate over total gas flow rate ratios (qi /q)
and Arps’ decline-curve exponent (b). In this study, our efforts
These optimum tuned coefficients (A–D) reported in Table 2 directed at formulating a simple-to-use method that can help
help to cover the data from literature for Arps’ decline-curve engineers and researchers immensely. It is expected that our
exponents, b between 0 and 1 and (qi /q) values up to 100 based efforts in this investigation will pave the way for arriving at
on data from Gentry (1972) and Ahmed (2006). an appropriate production decline-curve analysis which can
be used by petroleum engineers for follow up calculations for
4. Results analysis of past trends of declining production performance,
that is, rate versus time and rate versus cumulative production
Fig. 1 shows the performance of proposed predictive tool for plots, for wells and reservoirs. The predictive tool proposed
the estimation of, cumulative gas productions ((Gp )/(tqi )) as in the present work is simple and unique expression which
a function of the initial gas flow rate over total gas flow rate is non-existent in the literature. Typical example given below

1
b=0
0.9
Data
b=0.2
0.8
Data
0.7 b=0.4
Data
(GP2-GP1)/(tqi)

0.6 b=0.6
Data
0.5 b=0.8
Data
0.4 b=1
Data
0.3

0.2

0.1

0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
qi/q

Fig. 1 – Prediction of cumulative gas production as a function of Arps’ decline-curve exponent and the ratio of initial gas
flow rate over total gas flow rate (qi /q) in comparison with data [Gentry (1972) and Ahmed (2006)].
 chemical engineering research and design 9 0 ( 2 0 1 2 ) 541–547 545

0.6

(GP2-GP1)/(tqi) 0.5

0.4
b=0
0.3

0.2

0.1 b=1

0
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
qi/q

Fig. 2 – Performance of proposed correlation for prediction of cumulative gas production as a function of Arps’ decline-curve
exponent and the ratio of initial gas flow rate over total gas flow rate (qi /q).

(qi/q) at any time on decline=4

(GP 2-GP 1)/(tq i)

-1 (qi/q) at any time on decline=100

10

-2 -1 0
10 10 10
Arps’ decline-curve exponent,"b"

Fig. 3 – Performance of proposed correlation for prediction of cumulative gas production as a function of Arps’ decline-curve
exponent and the ratio of initial gas flow rate over total gas flow rate (qi /q) in another view point.

20

18 b=0
Data
16 b=0.2
Data
14 b=0.4
Data
12 b=0.6
Data
Di.t

10 b=0.8
Data
8
b=1
Data
6

0 0 1
10 10
qi/qt

Fig. 4 – Prediction of initial decline rate, multiply by time as a function of Arps’ decline-curve exponent and the ratio of initial
gas flow rate over total gas flow rate (qi /q) less than 20 in comparison with reported data [Gentry (1972) and Ahmed (2006)].
546 chemical engineering research and design 9 0 ( 2 0 1 2 ) 541–547

90
b=0.1
Data
80 b=0.2
Data
70 b=0.3
Data
60 b=0.4
Data
b=0.5
50 Data
Di.t

b=0.6
40 Data
b=0.7
Data
30
b=0.8
Data
20 b=0.9
Data
10 b=1
Data
0
2
qi/qt 10

Fig. 5 – Prediction of initial decline rate, multiply by time as a function of Arps’ decline-curve exponent and the ratio of initial
gas flow rate over total gas flow rate (qi /q) more than 20 in comparison with reported data [Gentry (1972) and Ahmed (2006)].

illustrates the simplicity associated with the use of proposed Di t = 1.381159

predictive tool for rapid production decline-curve analysis in Solving for Di gives
gas reservoirs. Di = 1.3811596/4 = 0.3453 year.

4.1. Example Use Eq. (1) to predict the future production performance of
the gas well. Notice that in Eq. (1) the denominator contains
The following production data were reported for a gas well: (Di t) and, therefore, the product must be dimensionless
qi
Date Time, years qt , MMscf/day GP(t) , MMMscf qt =
1/b
(1 + bDi t)

January 1, 1979 0 10 0
10 × 106
July 1, 1979 0.5 8.4 1.67 qt = 1/0.5
= 0.70644 MMscf/day
(1 + 0.5(0.3453)16)
January 1, 1980 1 7.12 3.08
Notice that in Eq. (1) the denominator contains (Di t) and,
July 1, 1980 1.5 6.16 4.3
therefore, the product must be dimensionless, In Eqs. (3) and
January 1, 1981 2 5.36 5.35 (4), the time basis in (qi ) is expressed in days and, therefore,
July 1, 1981 2.5 4.72 6.27 (Di ) must be expressed in (1/day) or day−1
January 1, 1982 3 4.18 7.08   q 1−b 
qi

t
July 1, 1982 3.5 3.72 7.78 Gp(t) = 1−
Di (1 − b) qi
January 1, 1983 4 3.36 8.44

 1−0.5 
10 × 106 0.7304 × 106
 
Using the data given recalculate the coefficients b and Di by
Gp(t) = 1−
using proposed predictive tool. Estimate the future production 0.00094(1 − 0.5) 10 × 106
performance for the next 16 years (Ahmed, 2006).
= 15.526 MMMscf
4.2. Solution

Step 1. Calculate b from the first predictive tool as a function The calculated results have good agreement with data
of ratios qi /q and Gp /(t qi ): reported by Ahmed (2006). For this example flow rate after
qi /q = 10/3.36 = 2.98 16 years reported by Ahmed (2006) is 0.6775 MMscf/day and
Gp /(tqi ) = 8440/[(4 × 365) (10)] = 0.58 cumulative gas production after 16 years reported by Ahmed
We assume b = 0.5, then (2006) is 15.02793 MMMscf.
˛ = 1.0707976×10−1 As you know the “b” value is between 0 and 1, so the initial
ˇ = 2.325422471 estimate is easy.
= −3.2532026
 = 1.8214307 5. Conclusions
Calculated Gp /(tqi ) = 0.58 991.
Calculated Gp /(tqi ) is very close to given Gp /(tqi ) so In the present work, simple-to-use predictive tool, which
assumed “b = 0.5” is correct. is easier than existing approaches, less complicated with
Step 2. Enter with the values of 2.98 and 0.5 to give fewer, is formulated to arrive at an appropriate estimation
ε = −6.876389272110−1 of nominal (initial) decline rate, and the Arps’ decline-curve
 = 8.131086642710−1 exponent. The results can be used in follow-up calculations
ϕ = −4.30647447110−2 for analysis of past trends of declining production perfor-
 = 1.064363272310−3 mance. The proposed predictive tool is simple-to-use can be of
 chemical engineering research and design 9 0 ( 2 0 1 2 ) 541–547 547

immense help to petroleum engineers especially those deal- concepts for decline-curve forecasting, reserve estimation,
ing with petroleum engineering and production operations. and analysis. SPE Reservoir Engineering Journal 11 (1), 13–22.
Additionally, the level of mathematical formulations with Fraim, M.L., Wattenbarger, R.A., 1987. Gas reservoir decline-curve
analysis using type curves with real gas pseudopressure and
clear numerical back-ground associated with the proposed
normalized time. SPE Formation Evaluation 2 (4), 671–682.
tool can be easily handled by a petroleum engineer without Fulton, W., Harris, J., 1991. Representation Theory. A First Course,
any in-depth mathematical abilities. Example shown for the Graduate Texts in Mathematics, Readings in Mathematics,
benefit of engineers clearly demonstrates the usefulness of vol. 129. Springer-Verlag, New York, USA.
the proposed tool. Using this method is more appropriate Gentry, R.W., 1972. Decline curve analysis. Journal of Petroleum
and more accurate to generate the coefficients of the equa- Technology (January), 38–42.
tions using least-square regression analysis instead of using Horn, R.A., Johnson, C.R., 1991. Topics in Matrix Analysis.
Cambridge University Press, UK, Section 6.1.
ready-generated coefficients with uncertainty. The engineers
Khanamiri, H.H., 2010. A non-iterative method of decline curve
can easily develop their own computer program to compute analysis. Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering 73,
the coefficients and hence the solution (i.e. gas reserves and 59–66.
production performance). In particular, petroleum engineers Li, K., Horne, R.N., 2005. An analytical model for production
would find the proposed approach to be user friendly involv- decline curve analysis in naturally fractured reservoir. SPE
ing transparent calculations with no complex expressions for Reservoir Evaluation & Engineering (June), 197–204.
Li, K., Horne, R.N., 2007. Comparison and verification of
their applications.
production prediction models. Journal of Petroleum Science
and Engineering 55, 213–220.
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