AASHTO 2010 Introduction To The Highway Safety Manual-1
AASHTO 2010 Introduction To The Highway Safety Manual-1
HIGHWAY
SAFETY
MANUAL
An Introduction to the
HIGHWAY SAFETY MANUAL
Table of Contents
Section 1: HSM Overview.......................................................................... 1
What is the Highway Safety Manual?......................................................................... 1
2
Section 1: HSM Overview
What is the Highway Safety Manual?
The Highway Safety Manual (HSM) introduces a science-based technical approach that takes the
guesswork out of safety analysis. The HSM provides tools to conduct quantitative safety analyses,
allowing for safety to be quantitatively evaluated alongside other transportation performance
measures such as traffic operations, environmental impacts, and construction costs.
For example, the HSM provides a method to quantify changes in crash frequency as a function of
cross-sectional features. With this method, the expected change in crash frequency of different
design alternatives can be compared with the operational benefits or environmental impacts
of these same alternatives. As another example, the costs of constructing a left-turn lane on a
two-lane rural road can be compared to the safety benefits in terms of reducing a certain number
of crashes.
• Methods for developing an effective roadway safety management program and evaluating its Regression to the mean is the
effects. A roadway safety management program is the overall process for identifying sites with
natural variation in crash data.
potential for safety improvement, diagnosing conditions at the site, evaluating conditions and
identifying potential treatments at the sites, prioritizing and programming treatments, and If regression to the mean is not
subsequently evaluating the effectiveness at reducing crashes of the programmed treatments. accounted for, a site might be
Many of the methods included in the HSM account for regression to the mean and can result selected for study when the crashes
in more effectively identifying improvements to achieve a quantifiable reduction in crash
are at a randomly high fluctuation,
frequency or severity. Safety funds can then be used as efficiently as possible based on the
identified locations. or overlooked from study when
• A predictive method to estimate crash frequency and severity. This method can be used to make the site is at a randomly low
informed decisions throughout the project development process, including: planning, design, fluctuation.
operations, maintenance, and the roadway safety management process. Specific examples in-
clude screening potential locations for improvement and choosing alternative roadway designs.
• A catalog of crash modification factors (CMFs) for a variety of geometric and operational
A Crash Modification Factor (CMF)
treatment types, backed by robust scientific evidence. The CMFs in the HSM have been
developed using high-quality before/after studies that account for regression to the mean. is a factor estimating the potential
The HSM emphasizes the use of analytical methods to quantify the safety effects of decisions changes in crash frequency or
in planning, design, operations, and maintenance. The first edition does not address issues crash severity due to installing a
such as driver education, law enforcement, and vehicle safety, although these are important particular treatment. The CMFs
considerations within the broad topic of improving highway safety.
in the HSM have been developed
The HSM is written for practitioners at the state, county, metropolitan planning organization based on a rigorous and reliable
(MPO), or local level.
scientific process.
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An Introduction to the
HIGHWAY SAFETY MANUAL
• Identifying sites with the most potential for crash frequency or severity reduction;
• Identifying factors contributing to crashes and associated potential countermeasures to address
these issues;
• Conducting economic appraisals of potential improvements and prioritizing projects;
• Evaluating the crash reduction benefits of implemented treatments; and
• Estimating potential effects on crash frequency and severity of planning, design,
operations, and policy decisions.
The HSM can be used for projects that are focused specifically on responding to safety-related
questions. In addition, the HSM can be used to conduct quantitative safety analyses on
projects that have not traditionally included this type of analysis, such as corridor studies to
identify capacity improvements and intersection studies to identify alternative forms of traffic
control. The HSM can also be used to add quantitative safety analyses to multidisciplinary
transportation projects.
Further, from a legislative perspective, the HSM will support states’ progress toward federal, state,
and local safety goals to reduce fatalities and serious injuries. As public agencies work toward
their safety goals, the quantitative methods in the HSM can be used to evaluate which programs
and project improvements are achieving desired results; as a result, agencies can reallocate funds
toward those that are having the greatest benefit.
2
Section 2: HSM Contents
The HSM is organized into four parts:
Network Screening
Chapter 4
Economic Appraisal
Chapter 7
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An Introduction to the
HIGHWAY SAFETY MANUAL
Highlights of this part of the manual are advances in network screening methods and safety
evaluation methods. In Chapter 4 (Network Screening), several new network screening performance
measures are introduced to shift the safety analysis focus away from traditional crash rates. The
major limitation associated with crash rate analysis is the incorrect assumption that a linear relation-
ship exists between traffic volume and the frequency of crashes. As an alternative analysis tool,
a focus on expected crash frequency can account for regression to the mean when developing
performance measures for network screening. This analysis will provide a more stable list of locations
that might respond to safety improvements than lists prepared with traditional methods. This, in
turn, will result in a more effective spending of improvement funds.
Chapter 9 (Safety Effectiveness Evaluation) provides methods for evaluating the effectiveness of
an individual treatment, a series of treatments, or an overall program, and for calculating a crash
modification factor (CMF). Evaluating safety investments is often an overlooked element of the
roadway safety management process. The HSM brings a focus back to this step in the process.
4
PART D Crash Modification Factors
For each facility type, prediction models for set base conditions are found. CMFs quantify the
change in expected average crash frequency as a result of geometric or operational modifica-
tions to a site that differs from set base conditions. As shown in Table 2, Part D provides a
catalog of treatments organized by site type:
The CMFs will be readily applicable to any design or evaluation process where optional treatments
are being considered. The CMFs will also be a valuable addition to the documentation of design
exceptions. Table 2 provides an example of a CMF.
The HSM
Table 2 Sample Crash Modification Factors
provides a
Potential Crash Effects of Providing a Median on Multilane Roads catalog of Crash
Treatment
Setting Traffic Accident Type
CMF
Std. Modification
(Road Type) Volume (Severity) Error
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An Introduction to the
HIGHWAY SAFETY MANUAL
and design.
The roadway characteristics data requirements change as a function of the facility type (e.g.,
two-lane, two-way rural road, multilane rural highway, urban/suburban arterial) and whether an
intersection or segment is under consideration. Table 3 provides a summary of the roadway char-
acteristics data requirements.
6
Table 3 Site Characteristics and Traffic-Volume
Variables Used in HSM Safety Predictions
Data Requirements
The data required for the application of this method are:
Sample Application
The basis for the Excess Expected Average Crash Frequency with EB Adjustment performance
measure is that each site is evaluated as a function of how much the predicted average crash
frequency for the site differs from the long-term EB adjusted expected average crash frequency
for the same site. This difference is referred to as the “Excess” value (see Table 4). Sites with a
Network high “Excess” value are most likely to respond to safety improvements because they are theoretically
experiencing more crashes than other similar sites. An advantage of this method is that it may be
screening is used as a performance measure to evaluate a mix of facility types and traffic volumes in a single
1 For each site, calculate the Predicted Average Crash Frequency using the methods and
of evaluating predictive formulas presented in Part C of the HSM.
a network 2 For each site, calculate the Expected Average Crash Frequency using the EB method presented
in the Part C Appendix.
of facilities 3 Estimate an “Excess” value using the following formula:
to safety Where:
Excessy = Excess expected crashes for year
improvements. Nexpected, n = EB-adjusted expected average crash frequency for year
Npredicted, n = SPF predicted average crash frequency for year
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Table 4 Predicted Average Crash Frequency
SPF SPF
Observed Observed EB-Adjusted
Major Minor Predicted Predicted EB-Adjusted
Average Average Expected
Street Street Average Average Expected Average Excess
Int. Int. Type Crash Crash Average Crash
Volume Volume Crash Crash Crash Frequency (NEB – NSPF) PDO + (NEB – NSPF) FI
Frequency Frequency Frequency
(AADT) (AADT) Frequency Frequency (PDO)
(FI) (PDO) (FI)
(FI)1 (PDO) 1
3-Leg
Signal
1 8,885 6,313 2.8 3.4 0.5 0.9 1.2 1.7 1.50
(Urban
Arterial)
4-Leg
Signal
2 18,447 2,569 2.8 5.0 1.3 2.6 1.7 3.6 1.49
(Urban
Arterial)
4-Leg
Signal
3 16,484 2,041 1.4 2.0 1.1 2.2 1.2 2.1 0.03
(Urban
Arterial)
4-Leg
Signal
4 23,793 7,700 4.4 4.0 2.2 4.4 2.9 4.2 0.61
(Urban
Arterial)
4-Leg
Signal
5 19,726 10,084 1.4 8.8 1.8 3.9 1.7 6.1 2.05
(Urban
Arterial)
3-Leg
Signal
6 25,559 1,440 2.6 6.6 1.0 1.8 1.5 3.5 2.22
(Urban
Arterial)
1
In this example, the local geometric conditions are the same as the geometric conditions for the SPF; therefore, all CMFs = 1.0.
AADT = Average Annual Daily Traffic
FI = Fatal-and-Injury Crashes
PDO = Property-Damage-Only Crashes
Results:
In this sample application, the final ranking of the intersections is determined based on the
resulting “Excess” value (see Table 5). The intersection most likely to benefit from safety
improvements in this example is Intersection 6, which has an “Excess” value of 2.22. Diagnosis
and selection of treatment will be required to establish the potential for such improvement.
Intersection Excess
6 2.22
5 2.05
1 1.50
2 1.49
4 0.61
3 0.03
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An Introduction to the
HIGHWAY SAFETY MANUAL
Equation 1
Nbi = 12.97 x (.066 x 0.96 x 0.88 x 1.00 x 0.91 x 1.00) x 1.00 = 6.63 crashes/year
10
Where:
Nbi = Predicted average crash frequency for an intersection
Nspf int = Predicted average crash frequency for base conditions (Nspf int = 12.97, see below)
CMF1i … CMF6i = Crash modification factors for left-turn lanes (CMF1i = 0.66), left-turn phasing
(CMF2i = 0.96), right-turn lanes (CMF3i = 0.88), right turn on red
(CMF4i = 1.00), lighting (CMF5i = 0.91), and red-light camera (CMF6i = 1.00).
C = Calibration factor (C = 1.00)
Note, as this is a multi-step process there are multiple equations that are used to calculate Nspf int,
(e.g., by crash severity, by mode), these steps are not detailed in this example. An interim
equation used in that process for the Main Street/3rd Street intersection no-build condition
is illustrated as Equation 2.
Equation 2
Where:
N’bimv(FI) = Multiple vehicle intersection fatal/injury crashes
a, b, and c = Regression coefficients (–13.14, 1.18, and 0.22 for 4-leg signalized intersections)
AADTmaj = Annual average daily traffic on major road (33,910)
AADTmin = Annual average daily traffic on minor road (25,790)
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An Introduction to the
HIGHWAY SAFETY MANUAL
• SafetyAnalyst provides a set of software tools used by state and local highway agencies for
highway safety management. It incorporates state-of-the-art safety management approaches
into computerized analytical tools for guiding the decision-making process to identify safety
improvement needs and develop a systemwide program of site-specific improvement projects.
SafetyAnalyst is applicable to Part B of the HSM. The SafetyAnalyst software is available through
AASHTO, and additional information can be found at www.safetyanalyst.org.
• The Interactive Highway Safety Design Model (IHSDM) is a suite of software analysis tools
for evaluating safety and operational effects of geometric design decisions on highways. It
checks existing or proposed highway designs against relevant design policy values and provides
estimates of a design’s expected safety and operational performance. The IHSDM performs
the predictive method for the facilities in Part C of the first edition of the HSM (i.e., two-lane,
two-way rural roads, rural multilane highways, and urban and suburban arterials). The IHSDM
website summarizes the capabilities and applications of the evaluation modules and provides a
library of the research reports documenting their development. Information is available at the
public software website, www.ihsdm.org, where users can register and download the latest
release of IHSDM.
• The Crash Modification Factors Clearinghouse houses a web-based database of CMFs along
with supporting documentation to help transportation engineers identify the most appropriate
countermeasure for their safety needs. Using this site at www.cmfclearinghouse.org, users are
able to search for existing CMFs or submit their own CMFs to be included in the clearinghouse.
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Develop an Agency HSM Implementation Plan
Incorporating the HSM into an agency’s processes will take a concerted effort that should begin
with a plan of action. A number of state DOTs have begun planning for the HSM by developing
agency-specific training programs, and incorporation of the software tools previously discussed.
The Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) is developing an HSM Implementation Plan Guide for
State Highway Agencies to be released in late 2010. It will provide strategies to assist with HSM
deployment activities at the state level.
Stay Updated
The most up-to-date information on training, technical support, and marketing materials is
available at AASHTO’s Highway Safety Manual website, www.highwaysafetymanual.org.
Section 7: Resources
• Highway Safety Manual website: www.highwaysafetymanual.org
• Purchase the HSM: http://bookstore.transportation.org. Search under code HSM-1.
- Cost: $325 (Members), $390 (Non-members)
- Discounts are available for those states taking HSM training
• IHSDM website: http://www.ihsdm.org
• SafetyAnalyst website: http://www.safetyanalyst.org
• Crash Modification Factors Clearinghouse: http://www.cmfclearinghouse.org
• NCHRP Research Results Digest 329:
www.trb.org/Publications/Blurbs/Highway_Safety_Manual_ Data_Needs_Guide_159984.aspx
• Training courses available at http://nhi.fhwa.dot.gov
- New Approaches to Highway Safety Analysis (NHI-380075)
- HSM Practitioners Guide to Two-Lane Rural Roads (NHI-380070A)
- HSM Practitioners Guide to Multilane Urban/Suburban Highways (NHI-380070B)
- HSM Application to Intersections (NHI-380105*)
- HSM Workshop (NHI-380106*)
- Application of Crash Reduction Factors (NHI-380093)
- Science of Crash Reduction Factors (NHI-380094)
- Interactive Highway Safety Design Model (IHSDM) (NHI-380071, NHI-380100* web-based)
*Course under development
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American Association of State
Highway and Transportation Officials
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Washington, DC 20001