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Creed Rice Market Report, April 3, 2024

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260 views13 pages

Creed Rice Market Report, April 3, 2024

Uploaded by

arturoarticaa
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
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Creed Rice

Market Report
April 3, 2024

Your Internet “Search Engine”


for the Global Rice Industry™
RiceOnline
A S U B S I D I A R Y O F C R E E D R I C E C O. , I N C.
ES T. 1973

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Creed Rice Market Report ��������������Est. 1989

[Link] ����������������������������������Est. 1999

Family Legacy ����������������������������������� Est. 1914


EARLY BIRD REGISTRATION
ENDS MAY 15

REGISTER TODAY!
Market Report April 3, 2024

Asian Long Grain Report


SOUTHEAST ASIAN MARKETS half of their exports, to break into a market of the size of Indonesia
(commodity-type business). I think it is likely that offshore receivers
Thailand: of the smaller tonnage were less willing to pay higher prices as the
market escalated; this makes total sense … our market here in the US
The market conditions are basically unchanged. Once is a classic example.
again, prices are down another $10 per MT. Traders have also found their way into some of the Filipino
Mills and exporters are vigorously shipping against business, which is more understandable as that is mostly container
business on the books … Indonesia being the big one, business as well.
followed by Iraq
Iraq.. 2023 exports totaled almost 700,000 MT out a crop of 12 MMT.
The scramble for paddy out of the main season crop is gradually This does not include the paddy exported to VN VN,, nor the border trade
depleting free stocks, as vendors cover sales made over the past two with China
China..
(Indonesia, The Philippines, Iraq, Malaysia).
months (Indonesia, Malaysia). Second I look for more of the same during 2024, as Cambodia continues to
crop will soon begin harvest … May/June. stake their claim as a viable alternative origin market.
It is most interesting to note that the Indonesian sales were
consummated at levels below quotes at the time … hence the steady
decline in prices. Myanmar:
Prices have dropped to 5-month lows … $560 (Nov. 15 CRMR)
vs $584 per MT bagged FOB Bangkok for 5% today. The Burmese “punched their ticket” as a supplier to
The latest export numbers are remarkable. Thai traders shipped Indonesia, albeit amid an optional origin award. One thing
Indonesia,
2.5 MMT during the first quarter of ’23 … simple math translates to is markedly clear, given the amount of rice that Indonesia
10 MMT. Whereas that number is exorbitant on the surface, the 8 is buying, BULOG is completely open to multiple suppliers
MMT cited by exporters seems much more achievable than the 7.5 … including India when they lower the ban on white rice.
the government announced last week. Most certainly, the amount of African shipments have expanded from mostly brokens to other
tonnage BULOG ultimately imports is the key … the rest (historical white rice qualities … in part, filling the void that India has left in the
core business) should fall into place … we shall see. market.

Thailand Exports
Unofficial and preliminary rice exports Indonesia:
(excluding Hom Mali fragrant rice)
from Jan. 1-March 17, 2024, totaled 1,745,114 mt, Collectively, the preceding segments provide a nice
up 52% from the same period last year. segue into this one, the most highlighted destination market
Dollar to Thai Baht exchange 1 : 36.61 in the international community.
BULOG tenders have been at the forefront for the past
15 months, navigating a market in which prices moved up
$200 per MT ($425 - $625) … all based on projections for El Nino-
Vietnam: induced losses due to drought.
The ’24 campaign is a moving target with government and industry
Vietnam’s first quarter export numbers are far less import forecasts ranging from 1.9-4.0 MMT … the former will
impressive than those out of Bangkok, as January 1 – certainly be eclipsed.
March 25 totals reflected 1.75 MMT … extrapolated The El Nino season still has a few months to unfold (June), so the
through the end of the end would equal approximately jury is still out as to what the government will do … considering their
7.2 MMT. Whereas tonnage is down, the dollar amount domestic “give-away” program and keeping BULOG buffer stocks
of the rice shipped in the first quarter is up by 50%. serviced.
Whilst Thailand dominated the awards on the most recent 2 It seems as though the market is trending softer … short term
tenders, VN traders are looking to The Philippines for 3 MMT +/-. I see 5% hovering around $590, amid downward pressure, if the
I think for the first time in several years, price will be the Indonesians temporarily withdraw and re-assess their strategy once
determinant factor moving forward. That said, VN seems to have their main season harvest has been evaluated. Promising production
the upper hand on the aforementioned Filipino business (preference numbers could push subsequent demand into the second half of 2024.
on quality among many buyers), market share will be under siege
form other suitors … Thailand, Myanmar, and Cambodia.
Cambodia. Indonesia: USDA GAIN report summary
I understand from our “boots on the ground” that there are
serious quality concerns for rice harvested first half March across Referring to Indonesian Statistics Agency (BPS, Badan Pusat
600,000 hectares. The spread in the paddy market for “good rather Statistik) report, Post revises down 2022/23 paddy harvested area
than poor” is a $20 per MT premium. to 11.3 million hectares from the previous estimate of 11.5 million
Paddy imports January 1 – March 12 total 1.125 MMT, vs hectares as the effects of El Nino have proven to be stronger than
616,000mt during the same period a year ago … that should tell initially anticipated, leading to more farmers leaving the land fallow.
you something!. The impact of El Nino in 2022/23 combined with floodings in some
paddy producing areas during the early months of 2023/24 and the
expected arrival of dry season in April 2024 is estimated to further
Cambodia: lower harvested area and production in 2023/24. Assuming improved
weather conditions, paddy production is forecast to slightly rebound
I suspect the industry is well pleased with their recent in 2024/25. Production shortages which resulted in rising prices for
success on the BULOG tender. This is an impressive paddy and rice led to higher imports allocations that the Government
achievement, by a relatively small exporting country who of Indonesia (GOI) assigned to BULOG in 2022/23 and 2023/24.
focuses on value – added container business for over Click here for entire report.
Creed Rice Market Report [Link]
Copyright © 2024 Creed Rice. Co., Inc. All Rights reserved email: michael@[Link]
10213 Spring Shadows Park Circle • Houston, Texas 77080 • USA April 3, 2024 - Page 3 of 13 ph. +1-713-782-3260 • fax +1-713-782-4671
Market Report April 3, 2024

Asian Long Grain Report


The Philippines: 2024/2025. FAS New Delhi (Post) forecasts India’s wheat production
at 112.5 million metric tons (MMT), thanks to the timely and record
We are getting conflicting production and import plantings of wheat, which benefitted from favorable weather conditions
reports. A record crop is in the offing; at the same time, the from the time of planting through the reproductive growth stages. Yet,
latest import projection is of record proportions (4 MMT). India is also set to emerge anew as an importer of wheat; imports are
Here too, diversification in origination strategy has been forecasted at 2 MMT premised on expected steady domestic demand,
ever present. VN’s market share had been as high as 90-95% a decline in government-held wheat stocks, and relatively weak global
in ‘22, to closer to 80% today. Thailand has absorbed most of that, but prices. At the same time, India’s MY 2024/2025 rice production is
Myanmar and Cambodia have been in the loop as well. forecast to come in at 135 MMT, just shy of another record setting
To me, the most interesting aspect moving forward is trying to harvest. Post attributes improved production to strong domestic prices
figure out what kind of role India might play once they “free-up” their fueling higher returns for rice compared to other crops this season,
stocks on the market. which will drive farmer planting intentions. Post foresees near record
corn production of 37 MMT. Click here for the entire report.

Malaysia: Pakistan:
Over the past year, I’ve learned more about the market,
that BERNAS has dominated for a long time, than I have Pakistani rice was sold again on the most recent
in the previous 47 years combined. It seems as though the Indonesian tender, albeit within the optional origin
Malaysians have been an after-thought, a market that was awards.
“hiding in the shadows” of Indonesia and The Philippines.
Philippines. As aforementioned above, exporters are actively
Make no mistake about it, historically, this has been a coveted shipping to markets in which they share with India
market (1 MMT annually, including ’23 and ‘24) for Thai and VN (to (parboiled and Basmati).
a lesser extent) traders … a market that was never in peril of accruing USDA’s latest reports show production to have increased markedly
adequate stocks, albeit challenges to overcome during the El Nino … ‘23/24 being 9 MMT vs the compromised crop of only 7.3 MMT
phenomenon. in 22/’23.
Here too, origin markets were expanded, something that has served These production numbers will give Pakistan the opportunity
the market well. to increase their export capabilities in concert with their grand plan
last year! However, ‘24/25 may be a different story if India drops its
export ban ... we shall see.

Pakistan: USDA GAIN report summary


NEAR EAST/SOUTH ASIAN MARKETS Due to an anticipated increase in area, 2024/25 rice production is
India: also forecast to set a record (9.5 MMT). Rice exports in 2024/25 are
forecast to fall from the record 2023/24 levels as the global market
REUTERS reported this past week: “Top exporter conditions favoring Pakistan’s rice exports are unlikely to be sustained
India’s rice export prices rose this week (on parboiled rice), into 2025. Click here for entire report.
as traders factored in higher duty on rice shipments.”
You have to wonder how much longer the government
will continue this hoax of an export ban on white rice, as Bangladesh:
the local and international exporters are loading vessels in Kakinada
(approx. 150,000 MT for West Africa) … it is being veiled as inclusive Local paddy inventories are down sharply as Aman
under the exceptions. stocks have been mostly exhausted … not only the outlying
FYI, USDA reports another crop of record proportions (135 storage facilities, but that which is in the hands of mills and
MMT) for the ‘24/’25 marketing year. One would think, at some traders.
point in time, sooner rather than later, that FCI and private godowns Demand among retailers is relatively thin, as Ramadan-
will be “busting at the seams”, amid excess stocks. (47 MMT). related needs have long since been procured, and many buyers are
Meanwhile, this “quasi-export ban” is allowing some tonnage to awaiting the harvest of the Boro crop … late April/early May.
get loaded; however, Pakistan continues to cut into Indian market No shortage is foreseen nearby. Import demand is quiet.
share in the case of destination markets for both parboiled rice and
Basmati.
News alert: Offers for white rice have been withdrawn. Sri Lanka:
What a colossal mess!
Likewise, the government continues to proclaim that
India: Kakinada port situation there is no need for imports … we shall see.
The aforementioned having been said. I look for local
The latest vessel/loading report (March 25th) for the port of retailers to hoard stocks, creating a “pseudo-shortage” and
Kakinada shows 9 vessels totaling 316,650mt. Click here for the sharp increase in local prices.
entire report.
Sri Lanka: USDA GAIN report summary
India: USDA GAIN report summary FAS Colombo forecast’s Sri Lanka’s market year (MY) 2024/2025
India is gearing up for a record wheat harvest in market year (MY) (Oct-Sept) rice production (milled) at 3.42 mmt, 2023/2024
production will be 3.37 mmt. Click here for entire report.
Creed Rice Market Report [Link]
Copyright © 2024 Creed Rice. Co., Inc. All Rights reserved email: michael@[Link]
10213 Spring Shadows Park Circle • Houston, Texas 77080 • USA April 3, 2024 - Page 4 of 13 ph. +1-713-782-3260 • fax +1-713-782-4671
Market Report April 3, 2024

Asian Long Grain Report


THE ASIA DERBY

Long Grain 5% Long Grain 25%

THAI 5% $574 THAI 25% $530

VIET 5% $580 VIET 25% $565

MYANMAR 5% $635 MYANMAR 25% no exp licenses

INDIAN 5% export ban INDIAN 25% export ban

PAKI 5% $598-600 PAKI 25% $530-535

HISTORICAL COMPARISON OF ASIAN PRICES (posted prices as of our print deadline, not firm for any timeframe)

This Week Last Report (03/27/24) 3 Months Ago (01/10/24) 1 Year Ago (04/05/23)
Thailand 5% $574 $588 $648 $482
25% $530 $542 $585 $458
Vietnam 5% $580 $590 $665 $475
25% $565 $565 $625 $455
Myanmar 5% $635 $635 $615 $540
25% no exp licenses no exp licenses $590 $520
India 5% export ban export ban export ban No offers ($434 containers)
25% export ban export ban export ban $412
Pakistan 5% $598-600 $605-620 $620 $485
25% $530-535 $550-585 $550 $450

ASIAN PRICES (posted prices as of our print deadline, not firm for any timeframe)

Thailand Vietnam Myanmar India Pakistan


100%B $588 5% (5.7mm/5.9mm) export ban AGL 6.6mm 5% NA
100B Containers $598 10% export ban 5% $598-600
5% $574 $580 $635 15% export ban 10% --
10% $572 25% 5.7mm/5.9mm export ban 15% --
15% $555 $570 Brokens break bulk export ban 25% sorted $560
25% $530 $565 no export licenses IR36 PB 5% $5405 +20% exp duty 25% $530-535
Brokens $462 $520 $460 (A12) 1121 parboil $1350 Parb 5% $615
Parb. 100B sorted $576 n/a brown Pusa parboil $1225 Parb 15%** --
Thai Hom Mali $875/$825 Jasmine $670 Pusa $1400 / NA Brokens $465
Frag. Brokens $520 Min. basmati exp. price $950 Bas. S. Kernal $990
All prices basis U.S. dollars per mt, bagged FOB vessel. **BD Specs. Philippine Specs highlighted in bold. India basis break bulk, or c = containers.

Creed Rice Market Report [Link]


Copyright © 2024 Creed Rice. Co., Inc. All Rights reserved email: michael@[Link]
10213 Spring Shadows Park Circle • Houston, Texas 77080 • USA April 3, 2024 - Page 5 of 13 ph. +1-713-782-3260 • fax +1-713-782-4671
Market Report April 3, 2024

Americas Long Grain Report


NORTH AMERICA Update: PARAGUAY:
As is always the case, the Paraguayans markedly
U.S.A.: ahead of their friends to the south.
The is very little new crop demand; the exception
The market conditions are basically unchanged. being the cargo of paddy sold to Costa Rica. Rica.
Fresh demand is rather limited to Haiti, domestic However, Brazil is buying some small lots in cross-border
and industrial markets, and branded and historical trade.
core export destination markets … Caribbean,
Mexico, and Central America.
Given the civil unrest on the ground in Port au Prince as
such, traders have been forced to ship to Cap Haitien … how BRAZIL:
it gets to PAP, LORD only knows. The crop is similar to Uruguay … some a little
Apparently, there is no new firm inquiries in the market earlier.
from Iraq (we do hear rumors), despite sales have been There was a sale of brokens sold to Africa
Africa..
executed out of Bangkok … no news further news has
surfaced about the bank irregularities we reported on last The latest Brazilian shipments report - forth week March
week. (in metric tons - official numbers):
It is our short remaining supply of long grain paddy which Paddy: 11.4
is driving the market. Milled: 53,830.0
Imports::
Imports
Paddy: 6,531.5
Milled: 60,954.2
USA Long Grain Exports Update: Recent vessels:
27,092mt - Senegal (sailed 10 March, brokens)
Long grain paddy export update (outstanding sales and 4000mt - Brazil (sailed, 25 March)
accumulated exports as of March 21th): 10,050mt - The Netherlands (ETS 3 April)
1- ‘23/’24 -- 1,470,300mt
2- ‘22/’23 -- 588,000mt 26,250mt - Gambia (ETA 2 April)
3- ‘21/’22 -- 1,182,000mt
Long grain milled rice exports (Mexico, Iraq, Haiti, outstanding
sales and accumulated exports as of March 21th):
Brazil: USDA GAIN report summary
1- ‘23/’24 -- 481,200mt
2- ‘22/’23 -- 411,000mt Rice producers have seen an increase in planted area and
3- ‘21/’22 -- 518,000mt production this season, following two consecutive years of
low prices and profitability. Click here for the entire report.

Dom. Rep.: USDA GAIN report summary


Rice imports are anticipated to see a slight uptick, fueled by
higher consumption and the expiration of tariff rate quotas.
Click here for the entire report.

THE AMERICAS’ STAKES


Long Grain 5%
SOUTH AMERICA Update:
USA 5% $800
Mercosur:
URUGUAY: URUGUAY 5% $705
The harvest is in its infancy. Early reports on
quality are good; it is too early to be sure about ARGENTINA 5% $680
yields. The thrust of the harvest is 3-4 weeks away.
Most of paddy that has been cut is M/G.
There have been no new sales of consequence for regular PARAGUAY 5% N/A
white rice.
The export market is quiet. BRAZIL 5% $720
Creed Rice Market Report [Link]
Copyright © 2024 Creed Rice. Co., Inc. All Rights reserved email: michael@[Link]
10213 Spring Shadows Park Circle • Houston, Texas 77080 • USA April 3, 2024 - Page 6 of 13 ph. +1-713-782-3260 • fax +1-713-782-4671
Market Report April 3, 2024

Americas Long Grain Report


USDA Rice Stocks report -- Mar. 28, 2024
USDA Rice Stocks report -- Mar. 28, 2024
Rice Stocks by Position and Month in Domestic Units - United States: 2023 and 2024
Rough Rice Stocks Up 31 Percent from March 2023
[Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Rough rice stocks in all positions on March 1, 2024, totaled 100 million hundredweight
: 2023 : 2024 (cwt), up 31 percent from the total on March 1, 2023. Stocks held on farms totaled
:------------------------------------------------------------------- 16.7 million cwt, and off-farm stocks totaled 83.8 million cwt. Long grain varieties ac-
Date : On : Off : Total all : On : Off : Total all
: farms : farms 1/ : positions : farms : farms 1/ : positions
counted for 63 percent of the total rough rice, medium grain accounted for 36 percent,
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- and short grain varieties accounted for 1 percent.
: 1,000 cwt
: Milled rice stocks in all positions totaled 6.45 million cwt, up 48 percent from a year
Rough rice . :
March 1 .......: 12,220 64,259 76,479 16,695 83,765 100,460
ago. Milled rice stocks were comprised of 5.08 million cwt of whole kernel rice and 1.37
June 1 ........: 4,385 39,411 43,796 million cwt of second heads, screenings, and brewers rice.
August 1 ......: 1,742 22,494 24,236
October 1 2/ ..: 10 384 394
December 1 ....: 39,580 98,859 138,439
:
Milled rice :
March 1 .......: (X) 4,360 4,360 (X) 6,453 6,453
June 1 ........: (X) 5,166 5,166
August 1 ......: (X) 4,214 4,214
October 1 2/ ..: (X) 1,202 1,202
December 1 ....: (X) 5,882 5,882
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(X) Not applicable.
1/ Includes stocks at mills, elevators, warehouses, ports, and in transit.
2/ California only.

USA QUOTES: Note: These are nominal quotes only, not bids nor offers.
Southern U.S. - Long Grain Abbreviation Quote Basis
U.S. #2 Long Grain, max. 5% Broken, Hard Milled (Iraq terms and Specs) #2/5% $800.00 per MT sacked, F.O.B. U.S. Gulf
U.S. #2 Long Grain, max. 4% Broken, Hard Milled (Haiti, MX, Colombia) #2/4% $765-775 per MT, BULK, F.O.B. Vessel US Gulf
U.S. #2 Long Grain, max. 4% Broken, Hard Milled (Iraq specs) #2/4% $775.00 per MT Sacked F.A.S. US Gulf
U.S. #2 Long Grain, max. 4% Broken, Hard Milled #2/4% $820.00 per MT containerized FOB US Gulf
U.S. #2 Long Grain, max. 4% Broken, Hard Milled #2/4% $810.00 per mt sacked delivered Laredo TX
U.S. #3 Long Grain, max. 15% Broken, Hard Milled #3/15 $765.00 per MT sacked, F.A.S. U.S. Gulf
U.S. #3 Long Grain, max. 15% Broken, Hard Milled #3/15 $800.00 per mt sacked delivered Laredo TX
U.S. #2 Long Grain Brown, max. 4% Broken, 75% yield #2/4/75 $740.00 per mt bulk FOB vessel NOLA
U.S. #1 Parboiled L/G Brown, max. 4% Broken, 88% yield #1/4/88 NA per mt bulk FOB vessel NOLA
U.S. #1 Parboiled L/G MILLED, max. 4% Broken #1/4 Parb $780.00 per mt bulk FOB vessel NOLA
U.S. #2 Long Grain Paddy, 55/70 yield #2 55/70 $420.00 per mt bulk FOB vessel NOLA
U.S. #5 L/G, max. 20% broken, WELL MILLED #5/20/wm $740.00 per MT sacked, F.A.S. U.S. Gulf

Southern U.S. - Package Quality Long Grain (add $1.50/cwt premium for sacked truck)
Package Quality Parboiled L/G, max. 4% broken Pkg. Parb. $40.25 per cwt. bulk F.O.B. mill
Package Quality Long Grain Milled, max. 4% broken Pkg. L/G $36.75 per cwt. bulk F.O.B. mill
Package Quality Long Grain Milled, max. 4% broken (select variety) Pkg. L/G $38.25 per cwt. bulk F.O.B. mill
Package Quality Long Grain Brown Rice, max. 4% broken Pkg. Br. $38.25 per cwt. bulk F.O.B. mill

MERCOSUR QUOTES:
Uruguay Argentina Paraguay Brazil
Tacuari 5%** FOB container $840
Olimar 5% FOB container $760
generic 5% FOB vessel $705 $680 -- $720 Type 1
generic 5% FOB in containers $720
7.5% ex-mill $650 --- $600*
Parboiled 5% FOB container $785 $710 $735
Paddy FOB vessel $460 $390 $380 $375
Prices basis U.S. $ per mt. **Peru specs * - FOB Brazilian border

Creed Rice Market Report [Link]


Copyright © 2024 Creed Rice. Co., Inc. All Rights reserved email: michael@[Link]
10213 Spring Shadows Park Circle • Houston, Texas 77080 • USA April 3, 2024 - Page 7 of 13 ph. +1-713-782-3260 • fax +1-713-782-4671
Market Report April 3, 2024

Medium Grain Report


California: Korea:
There was more rain in California this past week and There is no new news out of Korea this week. The
more in the forecast. Each day is one more day closer to latest business was the purchases from their February
the time when growers should start planting (but not yet). 20th series of tenders, which bought only the USA origin
If the rain continues for an extended period, and/or we rice. As a reminder, the prices ranged $799.50 - $828.50
have significant outflow from the reservoirs account heavy/rapid for containers, and $854.44 - $854.67 for the bulk vessel
snowmelt, we could see planted acres being reduced. But we have shipments. Click here for tender details.
some more time; there is no need for concern at this point.
Last week’s USDA Prospective Planting report estimated acres for
California as almost a half million. That is a decent number for now,
but time (and the weather) will tell.
As we reported last week, Korea aT held their second series of
Japan:
tenders (mostly re-tenders from Feb. 20th that were not awarded). Japan started a new fiscal year Monday and as has been
The tenders that called for USA origin medium grain brown rice the case in previous years, we have to wait until August
were awarded at prices ranging $799.50 - $854.67 per mt delivered before we see their next MA tender for USA rice. However,
inland warehouse. These prices reportedly reflect about $710 per mt they traditionally have a tender for Thai origin in July.
on a FOB basis ... aggressive pricing to say the least. We have adjusted As we mentioned in last week’s CRMR, Japan’s last MA
our prices in the matrix below to $740-750. This purchase consumed tender was held March 15th and awarded the USA medium grain at
about 50% of their CY CSQ, so there is no rush to buy again quickly prices reported to reflect $750 per mt on a FOB vessel basis. Click
(they have nine more months to get the other half bought). here for more details.
Japan has entered a new fiscal year, stating April 1st. As in previ-
ous years, we do not anticipate any new purchases/tenders for USA
rice until August.
Taiwan held a USA tender for 500mt of short grain milled rice
on March 26th; the award was priced at $1211.75 per mt. Additional Taiwan:
tenders from multiple origins are scheduled for April 11th. See the
Taiwan segment. Taiwan held a new USA short grain tender March 26th
for 500mt. The awarded price was $1211.75 per mt.
The second tendering for three tenders originally held
Arkansas: March 13th will now be held Aprill 11th.
Click here for more details.
A particularly interesting stat in the USDA’s Prospective Plantings
report last week was the significant reduction in medium grain acres
for Arkansas; projected at only 90,000 acres for the entire state. This
could change as long grain seed in AR is getting hard to find.

MEDIUM GRAIN QUOTES:


California - Medium Grain Sellers’ Quotes
U.S. #1 Medium Grain, max. 4% Broken (Med) #1/4 $835 per mt sacked 25kg containerized FOB Mill
U.S. #1 Medium Grain, max. 4% Broken (Korea Specs, add $20 for 10kg) #1/4 $950 per mt sacked 20kg, container CIP Oakland
U.S. #1 Medium Grain milled rice, except max. 7% Broken (Japan Specs) #1/7% $740-750 per mt sacked in 1mt tote bags FOB vessel
U.S. #3 Medium Grain Brown rice, max. 8% broken (Korea Specs) #3 Brown $710 per mt in 1mt tote bags FOB vessel
U.S. #2 Medium Grain Paddy, 58/69 yield #2 58/69 no quote per mt bulk FOB Stockton, CA
California - Package Quality
Package Rice for Industrial Use and Repackers #1/4% $37.00-39.00 per cwt. bulk F.O.B. Mill
Southern U.S. - Medium Grain (“Jupiter”)
U.S. #2 Medium Grain, max. 4% broken, Hard Milled (Puerto Rico, Libya) #2/4% $775-790 per mt bulk FOB vessel NOLA
U.S. #2 Medium Grain Paddy, 58/69 yield #2 58/69 $455 per mt bulk FOB vessel NOLA
Southern U.S. - Package Quality Medium Grain (add $1.50/cwt for sacked truck)
Package Quality Medium Grain Milled, max. 4% broken Pkg. M/G $35-$48 per cwt. bulk F.O.B. mill

Vietnam - Medium Grain


VN Japonica double water polished, 5% broken, sorted, 80% purity (‘23 crop) VN Japonica 5% $615 per mt sacked FOB vessel
VN Medium Grain milled rice, Chau Hum Chau Hum $610 per mt sacked FOB vessel

Creed Rice Market Report [Link]


Copyright © 2024 Creed Rice. Co., Inc. All Rights reserved email: michael@[Link]
10213 Spring Shadows Park Circle • Houston, Texas 77080 • USA April 3, 2024 - Page 8 of 13 ph. +1-713-782-3260 • fax +1-713-782-4671
Market Report April 3, 2024

Paddy Report
UNITED STATES -- South $16.35 per cwt delivered to the river.

New crop activity continues as weather permits. We are in the very


Texas - USDA Prospective Plantings notes: early stages of planting. Also see the UofA’s: Arkansas Rice Update.
Planted acres long grain - 145,000 acres
Planted acres medium grain - 4000 acres
Total - 149,000 acres

Texas A&M University’s crop survey shows 42% of the Texas crop has
been planted, with 12% having emerged, and 2% flooded. Otherwise, UNITED STATES -- California
Texas has very little paddy remaining unsold/uncommitted in first
hands. No new trading reported. California - - USDA Prospective Plantings notes:
Planted acres medium grain - 460,000 acres
Planted acres short grain - 27,000 acres
Louisiana - - USDA Prospective Plantings notes: Planted acres long grain - 10,000 acres
Planted acres long grain - 410,000 acres Total - 497,000 acres
Planted acres medium grain - 40,000 acres
Total - 450,000 acres As has been the case for quite some time, the paddy market is still
quiet. More rain and snow this past week ... California has the water,
Prices are unchanged, reflecting $18.52 per cwt FOB farm basis but now needs it to stop so they can get the crop planted.
55/70/#2 (or $30.00 per barrel). Planting of the new crop continues
as the weather allows. - Northern Sierra Precipitation: 8-Station Index
- Current Conditions of Major Water Supply Reservoirs

Mid-South - USDA Prospective Plantings notes:


Planted acres long grain - AR 1,360,000; MO 215,000; MS 160,000 USDA Reports
Planted acres medium grain - AR 90,000; MO 9000; MS 1000
Total - AR 1,451,000; MO 224,000; MS 161,000
- USDA PROSPECTIVE PLANTINGS MARCH 28
Futures prices this past week continued their downward trend, - USDA RICE STOCKS REPORT MARCH 28
ranging down 0.715 to up 0.025. The cash paddy market basis the - USDA CROP PROGRESS APRIL 1
CME is still 20 cents over the May contract, but that now reflects only

Reflective Prices (per cwt FOB country 2023 crop)


Texas Louisiana Mid-South California
Long grain $19.00 $18.52 $16.00 *
Medium Grain * -- -- No current bid or offer

L/G prices are basis #2 55/70, Southern M/G prices are basis #2 58/69, California M/G prices are basis #1 55/70. Mid-South -- Arkansas, Missouri, Mississippi, northeast Louisiana.
* These areas do not have sufficient supplies of this type to quote.

Rough Rice Futures


CME Group Rough Rice Futures (04/01/2024 Volume: 769 Open Interest: 9,748)
Net Change From Prices Up Up
Contract Tuesday’s Settle
Month Price Monday Last Report One Year Ago 04/04/23
‘24 May $16.080 Down 0.215 Down 0.720 ‘23 May $16.790
‘24 July $16.395 Down 0.225 Down 0.715 ‘23 July $17.040
‘24 Sept $14.555 Down 0.035 Up 0.010 ‘23 Sept $15.490
‘24 Nov $14.590 Down 0.085 Down 0.085 ‘23 Nov $15.710
‘25 Jan $14.685 Up 0.030 Up 0.025 ‘24 Jan $15.975
‘25 Mar $14.680 Up 0.030 Down 0.045 ‘24 Mar $16.235
‘25 May $14.735 Up 0.030 Down 0.045 ‘24 May $16.535

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Market Report April 3, 2024

USDA International Weekly Weather


USDA Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin
Released April 2, 2024:

Southeast Asia - Widespread showers remained firmly en- Argentina - Warm, sunny weather promoted rapid growth of
trenched in the seasonally wetter southern reaches of the re- latedeveloping summer grains, oilseeds, and cotton. Complete
gion. Most areas recorded 25 to 100 mm, although some key dryness dominated a large section of the north and east, while
oil palm producing locales in Malaysia and Indonesia tallied scattered, mostly light showers (2-25 mm, locally approach-
less than 25 mm. These aforementioned oil palm areas have ing 50 mm) were confined to southern and western Buenos
been consistently receiving sub-par precipitation since the Aires, La Pampa, and Córdoba. Weekly average temperatures
latter half of January, raising concerns about yield potential. ranged from 2 to 5°C above normal throughout the main ag-
Meanwhile, droughtstricken portions of the northern Philip- ricultural delegations, with daytime highs reaching the upper
pines reported more rainfall (topping 100 mm locally), further 20s and lower 30s (degrees C) in the highyielding farming ar-
easing season-long moisture deficits for corn and rice. Nev- eas of central Argentina (La Pampa, Buenos Aires, and neigh-
ertheless, more rain is needed to fully eradicate drought in boring locations to the north). Hotter weather (35-40°C) was
this area. Elsewhere, showers flared in parts of Thailand and reported in the traditionally warmer northern farming areas,
the surrounding locations, producing upwards of 50 mm for reaching as far south as Córdoba. According to the govern-
second-season crops and bringing a respite from early-season ment of Argentina, sunflowers were 77 percent harvested (57
heat. percent last year) as of March 27, with harvesting 69 and 84
percent completed, respectively, in Buenos Aires and La Pam-
pa. Meanwhile, corn was 7 percent harvested, 3 points behind
Eastern Asia - Early-week showers in eastern wheat and rape- last year’s pace.
seed areas of China gave way to warmer, drier weather. Wheat
on the North China Plain was solidly vegetative at this point
(on pace with the average) and benefited from upwards of 25 Brazil - Following last week’s beneficial rainfall, dry weather
mm of rain early in the period. Similarly, flowering rapeseed returned to much of the south, where moisture was adequate
(on pace with the average) in the Yangtze Valley benefited from at best for immature summer crops. Aside from isolated, gen-
rainfall totals topping 25 mm across a wide area. Additionally, erally light showers (5-25 mm) concentrated over northern
temperatures began to climb after the showers passed, ending Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina, near complete dryness
the week up to 9°C above average in some areas. The subse- prevailed from Mato Grosso do Sul and southern portions of
quent warm, sunny weather advanced winter crop develop- São Paulo southward. Summer warmth (highs ranging from
ment and maintained favorable yield prospects. However, the the upper 20s to middle 30s degrees C) maintained high crop
above-average temperatures manifested as unseasonable heat moisture demands and losses through evaporation, exacerbat-
(over 30°C) in the southeast and southern-most provinces, ne- ing the effects of the dryness on summer crops growing with
cessitating increased irrigation for vegetative early-crop rice. limited moisture. According to government reports, first-crop
corn and soybeans were 91 and 87 percent harvested, respec-
tively, in Paraná as of March 25; second-crop corn was 99 per-
Australia - In southern Queensland, soaking rain (25-100 mm, cent planted, with nearly 35 percent of the crop in flowering to
locally more) hampered summer crop maturation and harvest- filling stages of development. In Rio Grande do Sul, 8 percent
ing, but the wet weather helped increase topsoil moisture in of soybeans were harvested as of March 28, with the majority of
advance of wheat and other winter crop planting. In contrast, the crop (46 percent) in the pod filling stage; meanwhile, corn
isolated showers in New South Wales provided little additional was 75 percent harvested. In contrast to the southern dryness,
moisture for the region’s water supplies, but the relative dry- widespread, locally heavy showers benefited immature corn
ness aided drydown of cotton and sorghum and allowed har- and cotton in most major production areas. The heaviest rain-
vesting to proceed at a relatively brisk pace. Elsewhere in the fall (50-100 mm, locally reaching 150 mm) overspread Mato
wheat belt, dry weather persisted in the south and west, further Grosso, Goiás, and over a large area stretching from western
reducing moisture supplies in advance of winter crop planting. Minas Gerais northward, although pockets of dryness were re-
Rain would be welcome to help condition the soil in advance of corded in western Bahia and southern Piauí. Highest daytime
wheat, barley, and canola planting. Sowing typically begins in temperatures generally ranged in the lower and middle 30s in
April each year. Temperatures averaged within 2°C of normal the wetter northern locations.
throughout most of the wheat belt, with maximum tempera-
tures in the lower and middle 30s (degrees C) in most areas.

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Market Report April 3, 2024

Tenders, Upcoming Events, Notices


KEY STATS Houston, TX, Lake Charles LA.
Feb. 8 KCCO BULK RICE TENDER (inv 2000009869)
- Philippines - rice inventory as of March 2023, was 1.41 million metric tons, to buy 34,580mt (AMENDED TENDER TEXT). Bought at $853.13 per mt
13.7 percent lower than the previous year’s level of 1.63 million MT. Similarly, FOB vessel.
this is 7.5 percent below the previous month’s stock of 1.52 million MT.
- Indonesia - Indonesia has a goal of 10 million mt of rice output during Feb. 9 Japan MA tender, 10th ordinary import tender FY 2023, to buy
their harvest Mar-Apr, 2024. The agriculture ministry plans to plant rice on 26,000mt USA M/G, 14,000mt Thai origin L/G, and 14,000mt global origin
10.54 million hectare areas, with output expected to reach 32 million tons in long grain. Bought 26,000mt USA, 28,000mt Thai.
all of 2024.
- Vietnam - Vietnam Jan-Mar rice exports were 2.1 MMT, up 2.1% y/y. Rice Feb. 10 Egypt (GASC) tender to buy milled short-grain 10% break-
Exports for 2023 were 8.13 mmt, valued at US$4.7 billion in 2023, setting a age, global origin.
new national record. This marked a 14.4% increase in volume and a 35.3%
rise in value from the previous year. Total rice output in the country in- Feb. 13 Japan SBS tender. AWARDS
creased 1.9% to 43.5 million tons. In 2023, the Philippines was the largest Feb. 20 Korea MA tenders totaling 66,666mt of USA medium grain,
importer of Vietnamese rice, purchasing 3.1 million tons, followed by Indo- and 22,222mt of Chinese short grain. Results pending.
nesia, China, and Ghana.
- Cambodia - In first 2 months of 2024, Cambodia exported 90,153mt Feb. 21 KCCO (inv 2000009908) tender to buy 7320mt of rice.
down 7.2% yr on yr. Bought at $749.79 - $793.41per mt intermodal BLC BBEA BHOU.
- Thailand - USDA Ag Attache reports Thailand’s rice exports for 2023 were
6,997,751metric tons, up 8.7% from 2022. Thai Rice Exporters Association Feb. 22 Japan MA tender, 11th ordinary import tender FY 2023, to
claims total exports were 8.5 MMT, up 20%. buy 26,000mt USA M/G, 14,000mt Thai origin L/G, and 14,000mt global
- Myanmar - Myanmar expects to export more than 2 million tonnes of rice origin long grain. USA awards reportedly reflect around $800 per mt FOB
in the coming 2023-24 fiscal year (Apr-Feb). Myanmar exported 261,079 vessel.
tonnes of rice in the first quarter of FY2023-2024, as compared to 550,547 Feb. 27 Indonesia BULOG tender to buy 300,000 MT of white rice
tonnes registered during the same period last year. with 5% broken, 2023/2024 crop, milled within 6 months. Bought Thai and
- Bangladesh - Dept. of Ag. figures for the FY24 crop: Production 41.2 Pakistani rice from 10 suppliers at prices ranging $624 - $655 per mt CNF.
MMT while USDA estimates 36.3 MMT. Bangladesh’s consuption is 37.6
MMT. Mar. 1 Japan SBS tender to buy 49,091mt of whole kernel rice, and
- India - USDA GAIN: 2022/2023 rice production 135mmt, 23/24 - 3,000mt of brokens. Awarded 14,623mt.
132mmt, 24/25 - 135mmt (wheat 112.5mmt, record).
- Pakistan - According to Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) July-January Mar. 5 KCCO (inv 2000009939) tender to buy 17,160mt of rice.
rice exports grew by 95.26 as compared to the exports of the corresponding Awarded amended tonnage.
period of last year: over 3.323 million metric tons of rice valued at $2.115 bil-
lion were exported as against the exports of 1.982 million tons worth $1.083
Mar. 8 Japan MA tender, 12th ordinary import tender FY 2023, to buy
26,000mt USA M/G, 7,000mt Thai origin L/G, and 21,000mt global origin
billion in the same period of last year.
long grain. Bought 57,200mt, of which 26,000mt USA medium grain, and
- Iran - Iran has imported 178,251mt of rice during the first two months of
31,200mt Thai.
the current Iranian year (March 21 - May 21), compared to 350,360mt last
year. Mar. 13 Taiwan three auctions for CSQ import licenses for any type of
- Brazil - 2022/2023 paddy production is forecast to be 9.94 million tons, the rice 18,000mt USA, 4,000mt Australian, 7150mt Thai. Tonnages basis brown
rice:
lowest in the last two decades. rice. All three tenders failed account floor price.
Mar. 15 Japan MA tender, 13th ordinary import tender FY 2023.
UPCOMING TENDERS Bought USA rice at prices reported to reflect $750 per mt on a FOB vessel
basis, also bought Australian rice for the global origin allocation.

Apr. 4 KCCO (inv 2000009988) tender to buy 140mt of rice. Mar. 19 KCCO (inv 2000009948) tender to buy 410mt of rice.
Bought at $872.96 per mt intermodal Houston.
Apr. 11 Taiwan three auctions for CSQ import licenses for any type of
rice: 18,500mt USA, 4,000mt Australian, 7150mt Thai.
rice Mar. 20 BULOG tender to buy 300,000 MT of white rice with 5%.
Results are pending, but Viet rice is believed to be the lowest priced offers
Apr. 25 AARQ EU-27 TRQ auction for the July 2024 tranche. at $609 per mt C&F.
Mar. 21 Korea MA tenders totaling 77,774mt of USA medium grain,
22,222mt of Chinese short grain, and 900mt Viet long grain. Only USA
TENDER RESULTS origin bought, at prices ranging $700.50 - $854.67 per mt delivered inland
warehouse.
Jan. 29 Japan SBS tender. Bought 9,465mt of whole grain and 800mt Mar. 26 Taiwan (GF4-113027 ) 500mt USA short grain milled rice, the
of brokens. price tender is March 29. Awarded at $1211.75.
Feb. 1 AARQ UK TRQ auction for the April 2024 tranche. Results Apr. 2 KCCO (inv 2000009976) tender to buy 2680mt of rice.
posted - lowest winning bid $15.00. Results pending.

Feb. 6 KCCO (inv 200000939) tender amended to buy 3280mt.


Bought 3280mt at $722.08 - $768.52 per mt intermodal Beaumont TX,

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Market Report April 3, 2024
Click any box for full report
U.S.D.A. World Market Price: USDA Export Sales Highlights (March 15-21, 2024)
Sales
World Market Net sales of 62,100 MT for 2023/2024 were down 56 percent from the previous
This week Last week 1 year ago
Price Value LDP week and 25 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for:
04/03/24 03/27/24 04/05/23
Factors Honduras  (24,200 MT)
Mexico  (15,800 MT)
Long Grain To be 24.70 18.45 00.00
Haiti  (13,000 MT)
Medium Grain released 24.20 18.22 00.00 El Salvador  (3,800 MT)
Short Grain April 3 24.20 18.22 00.00 Iraq  (3,500 MT)
were offset by reductions for Venezuela (2,500 MT)
Brokens 8:30am ET 14.94 10.73 - and Japan (1,100 MT). Total net sales of 12,000 MT for
2024/2025 were for Honduras.
WMP and Loan Rates 2023 Loan
L/G M/G Factors Exports
Exports of 134,600 MT--a marketing-year high--were up 27 percent from
Yield 48.82/19.56 61.56/9.04 L/G whole 11.15 the previous week and 36 percent from the prior 4-week average. The
destinations were primarily:
WMP 1.98 16.25 M/G whole 10.45 Iraq  (43,500 MT)
Mexico  (32,600 MT)
Loan 6.76 7.04 S/G whole 10.45 Venezuela  (22,500 MT)
Haiti  (15,200 MT)
Difference (8.22) (9.21) Brokens 6.74 Japan (15,000 MT)

Major USA Export Markets


USDA PROSPECTIVE PLANTINGS: Mar. 28, 2024 OUTSTANDING EXPORT SALES AND EXPORTS BY COUNTRY, REGION AND MARKETING YEAR
1000 METRIC TONS as of MARCH 21, 2024 Source: USDA
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Rice Area Planted by Class - States and United States: 2022-2024 : CURRENT MARKETING YEAR :NEXT MARKETING YEAR
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------------------------
: Area planted :OUTSTANDING SALES:ACCUMULATED EXPORTS: OUTSTANDING SALES
Class and State :------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------------------------
: 2022 : 2023 : 2024 1/ : Percent of DESTINATION :THIS WEEK: YR AGO:THIS WEEK: YR AGO :SECOND YR: THIRD YR
: : : : previous year --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Long grain Paddy :
: ---------------- 1,000 acres ---------------- percent C RICA : 0.0 0.0 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Long grain :
Arkansas ...........: 1,000 1,220 1,360 111
COLOMB : 87.9 38.2 71.5 114.4 0.0 0.0
California .........: 7 10 10 100 GUATMAL : 28.9 12.5 66.2 65.2 0.0 0.0
Louisiana ..........: 370 390 410 105 HONDURA : 73.0 24.0 125.1 90.3 12.0 0.0
Mississippi ........: 87 121 160 132 MEXICO : 45.8 23.6 534.4 88.8 0.0 0.0
Missouri ...........: 152 197 215 109 NICARAG : 25.3 25.0 91.8 49.5 0.0 0.0
Texas ..............: 190 125 145 116
United States ......: 1,806 2,063 2,300 111 PANAMA : 0.0 0.0 33.0 27.5 0.0 0.0
: SALVADR : 20.7 9.5 49.5 19.6 0.0 0.0
Medium grain : VENEZ : 5.5 0.0 195.7 0.0 0.0 0.0
Arkansas ...........: 103 215 90 42 Medium Grain Paddy :
California .........: 220 490 460 94
Louisiana ..........: 52 78 40 51
MEXICO : 33.1 32.3 26.8 20.5 0.0 0.0
Mississippi ........: - - 1 (X) Long Grain Brown (all): 6.1 5.0 11.4 15.1 0.0 0.0
Missouri ...........: 5 8 9 113 Medium Grain Brown :
Texas ..............: 5 24 4 17 TAIWAN : 1.8 0.0 0.7 6.3 0.0 0.0
United States ......: 385 815 604 74 KOR REP : 5.5 35.7 47.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
:
Short grain : Long grain Milled :
Arkansas ...........: 1 1 1 100 IRAQ : 0.0 40.0 174.6 132.0 0.0 0.0
California 2/ ......: 27 15 27 180 S ARAB : 3.8 9.5 48.1 51.1 0.0 0.0
United States ......: 28 16 28 175 CANADA : 34.1 13.0 38.9 32.8 0.0 0.0
:
All :
COLOMB : 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.6 0.0 0.0
Arkansas ...........: 1,104 1,436 1,451 101 HAITI : 27.3 34.3 243.3 182.0 0.0 0.0
California .........: 254 515 497 97 MEXICO : 4.9 5.1 31.1 17.6 0.0 0.0
Louisiana ..........: 422 468 450 96 Medium Grain Milled (includes short grain milled)
Mississippi ........: 87 121 161 133 JAPAN : 128.4 105.5 157.6 90.8 0.0 0.0
Missouri ...........: 157 205 224 109
Texas ..............: 195 149 149 100 JORDAN : 9.9 18.7 28.5 12.4 0.0 0.0
United States ......: 2,219 2,894 2,932 101 KOR REP : 35.0 10.0 10.5 24.6 0.0 0.0
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL KNOWN & UNKNOWN : 624.1 449.8 2135.6 1135.1 12.0 0.0

USDA Supply/Demand: March 8, 2024


U.S.D.A. Crop Progress:
RICE: The outlook for 2023/24 U.S. rice this month is for unchanged supplies and domestic
use, larger exports, and smaller ending stocks. All rice exports are raised 1.0 million cwt to
Rice Planted/Emerged - Selected States -- Week Ending Mar. 29th 88.0 million with a 3.0 million increase in long-grain and a decline of 2.0 million for medium-
Mar. 31, Mar. 24, 2019- 2023 and short-grain. Projected ending stocks are reduced 1.0 million cwt to 41.5 million but are
State Mar. 31, 2024 still 37 percent larger than last year. The all rice season-average farm price is raised this month
2023 2024 Avg. by $0.40 per cwt to $18.80 on increases for all classes of rice based on NASS prices reported
to date and expectations for cash and futures prices for the remainder of 2023/24. The long-
Arkansas 4/- 1 / (na) 3/- 2/- grain price is raised $0.10 per cwt to $16.10, the Other States medium- and short-grain price
is raised $0.50 per cwt to $18.00, and the California medium- and short-grain price is raised
California -/- (na) / (na) -/- -/- $2.00 per cwt to $32.00.
Louisiana 63 / 44 39 / 19 51 / 38 53 / 27 The 2023/24 global outlook this month is for larger supplies, trade, and ending stocks but
fractionally lower consumption. Supplies are raised 2.5 million tons to 692.6 million, primar-
Mississippi 1/- - / (na) 1/- 2/- ily on higher beginning stocks for Pakistan and increased production for India. Production
in India is raised 2.0 million tons to 134.0 million, on additional harvested area indicated in
Missouri -/- (na) / (na) -/- -/- the Second Advance Estimates of Production of Food Grains report. For Pakistan, beginning
stocks are raised following a revision to the 2022/23 crop, up 1.8 million tons to 7.3 million, as
Texas 31 / 13 20 / (na) 32 / 14 38 / 12 updated official data shows a higher yield than previously estimated. Global trade for 2023/24
is raised 1.0 million tons to 52.6 million on increases for several major exporters, including
6 States 15 / 9 (na) / (na) 12 / 7 12 / 5 Pakistan, Cambodia, Thailand, and Vietnam. Projected world ending stocks are forecast 2.5
million tons higher than last month to 169.7 million, most notably for India, Pakistan, and
Indonesia, though ending stocks are still forecast lower than the prior year.

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Market Report April 3, 2024

USA - Brokens and Co-Products


U.S. South Brokens:
Flour Quality brokens Flour Qlty $21.00 per cwt. bulk, F.O.B. rail
Pet Food Quality, #4 Brewers (milled) pet food $17-$18 per cwt. bulk, F.O.B. rail
U.S. California Brokens: (no offers, oversold)
Flour Quality brokens Flour Qlty $27 per cwt. bulk, F.O.B. mill
Pet Food Quality, #4 Brewers pet food $25 per cwt. bulk, F.O.B. mill

Rice Co-Products - Spot market prices basis $ per short ton bulk, FOB mill (spot prices)
Texas Louisiana Arkansas California
Bran: $35-40 $80 $45 (defatted - no quote) $135-140
Mill Feed: $25 $25 -- -
Ground Hulls: $0-2 $7 $0 -
Unground Hulls: $0-2 $7 $0 $0 - $4

Notes:

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