Creed Rice Market Report, April 3, 2024
Creed Rice Market Report, April 3, 2024
Market Report
April 3, 2024
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Market Report April 3, 2024
Thailand Exports
Unofficial and preliminary rice exports Indonesia:
(excluding Hom Mali fragrant rice)
from Jan. 1-March 17, 2024, totaled 1,745,114 mt, Collectively, the preceding segments provide a nice
up 52% from the same period last year. segue into this one, the most highlighted destination market
Dollar to Thai Baht exchange 1 : 36.61 in the international community.
BULOG tenders have been at the forefront for the past
15 months, navigating a market in which prices moved up
$200 per MT ($425 - $625) … all based on projections for El Nino-
Vietnam: induced losses due to drought.
The ’24 campaign is a moving target with government and industry
Vietnam’s first quarter export numbers are far less import forecasts ranging from 1.9-4.0 MMT … the former will
impressive than those out of Bangkok, as January 1 – certainly be eclipsed.
March 25 totals reflected 1.75 MMT … extrapolated The El Nino season still has a few months to unfold (June), so the
through the end of the end would equal approximately jury is still out as to what the government will do … considering their
7.2 MMT. Whereas tonnage is down, the dollar amount domestic “give-away” program and keeping BULOG buffer stocks
of the rice shipped in the first quarter is up by 50%. serviced.
Whilst Thailand dominated the awards on the most recent 2 It seems as though the market is trending softer … short term
tenders, VN traders are looking to The Philippines for 3 MMT +/-. I see 5% hovering around $590, amid downward pressure, if the
I think for the first time in several years, price will be the Indonesians temporarily withdraw and re-assess their strategy once
determinant factor moving forward. That said, VN seems to have their main season harvest has been evaluated. Promising production
the upper hand on the aforementioned Filipino business (preference numbers could push subsequent demand into the second half of 2024.
on quality among many buyers), market share will be under siege
form other suitors … Thailand, Myanmar, and Cambodia.
Cambodia. Indonesia: USDA GAIN report summary
I understand from our “boots on the ground” that there are
serious quality concerns for rice harvested first half March across Referring to Indonesian Statistics Agency (BPS, Badan Pusat
600,000 hectares. The spread in the paddy market for “good rather Statistik) report, Post revises down 2022/23 paddy harvested area
than poor” is a $20 per MT premium. to 11.3 million hectares from the previous estimate of 11.5 million
Paddy imports January 1 – March 12 total 1.125 MMT, vs hectares as the effects of El Nino have proven to be stronger than
616,000mt during the same period a year ago … that should tell initially anticipated, leading to more farmers leaving the land fallow.
you something!. The impact of El Nino in 2022/23 combined with floodings in some
paddy producing areas during the early months of 2023/24 and the
expected arrival of dry season in April 2024 is estimated to further
Cambodia: lower harvested area and production in 2023/24. Assuming improved
weather conditions, paddy production is forecast to slightly rebound
I suspect the industry is well pleased with their recent in 2024/25. Production shortages which resulted in rising prices for
success on the BULOG tender. This is an impressive paddy and rice led to higher imports allocations that the Government
achievement, by a relatively small exporting country who of Indonesia (GOI) assigned to BULOG in 2022/23 and 2023/24.
focuses on value – added container business for over Click here for entire report.
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Market Report April 3, 2024
Malaysia: Pakistan:
Over the past year, I’ve learned more about the market,
that BERNAS has dominated for a long time, than I have Pakistani rice was sold again on the most recent
in the previous 47 years combined. It seems as though the Indonesian tender, albeit within the optional origin
Malaysians have been an after-thought, a market that was awards.
“hiding in the shadows” of Indonesia and The Philippines.
Philippines. As aforementioned above, exporters are actively
Make no mistake about it, historically, this has been a coveted shipping to markets in which they share with India
market (1 MMT annually, including ’23 and ‘24) for Thai and VN (to (parboiled and Basmati).
a lesser extent) traders … a market that was never in peril of accruing USDA’s latest reports show production to have increased markedly
adequate stocks, albeit challenges to overcome during the El Nino … ‘23/24 being 9 MMT vs the compromised crop of only 7.3 MMT
phenomenon. in 22/’23.
Here too, origin markets were expanded, something that has served These production numbers will give Pakistan the opportunity
the market well. to increase their export capabilities in concert with their grand plan
last year! However, ‘24/25 may be a different story if India drops its
export ban ... we shall see.
HISTORICAL COMPARISON OF ASIAN PRICES (posted prices as of our print deadline, not firm for any timeframe)
This Week Last Report (03/27/24) 3 Months Ago (01/10/24) 1 Year Ago (04/05/23)
Thailand 5% $574 $588 $648 $482
25% $530 $542 $585 $458
Vietnam 5% $580 $590 $665 $475
25% $565 $565 $625 $455
Myanmar 5% $635 $635 $615 $540
25% no exp licenses no exp licenses $590 $520
India 5% export ban export ban export ban No offers ($434 containers)
25% export ban export ban export ban $412
Pakistan 5% $598-600 $605-620 $620 $485
25% $530-535 $550-585 $550 $450
ASIAN PRICES (posted prices as of our print deadline, not firm for any timeframe)
USA QUOTES: Note: These are nominal quotes only, not bids nor offers.
Southern U.S. - Long Grain Abbreviation Quote Basis
U.S. #2 Long Grain, max. 5% Broken, Hard Milled (Iraq terms and Specs) #2/5% $800.00 per MT sacked, F.O.B. U.S. Gulf
U.S. #2 Long Grain, max. 4% Broken, Hard Milled (Haiti, MX, Colombia) #2/4% $765-775 per MT, BULK, F.O.B. Vessel US Gulf
U.S. #2 Long Grain, max. 4% Broken, Hard Milled (Iraq specs) #2/4% $775.00 per MT Sacked F.A.S. US Gulf
U.S. #2 Long Grain, max. 4% Broken, Hard Milled #2/4% $820.00 per MT containerized FOB US Gulf
U.S. #2 Long Grain, max. 4% Broken, Hard Milled #2/4% $810.00 per mt sacked delivered Laredo TX
U.S. #3 Long Grain, max. 15% Broken, Hard Milled #3/15 $765.00 per MT sacked, F.A.S. U.S. Gulf
U.S. #3 Long Grain, max. 15% Broken, Hard Milled #3/15 $800.00 per mt sacked delivered Laredo TX
U.S. #2 Long Grain Brown, max. 4% Broken, 75% yield #2/4/75 $740.00 per mt bulk FOB vessel NOLA
U.S. #1 Parboiled L/G Brown, max. 4% Broken, 88% yield #1/4/88 NA per mt bulk FOB vessel NOLA
U.S. #1 Parboiled L/G MILLED, max. 4% Broken #1/4 Parb $780.00 per mt bulk FOB vessel NOLA
U.S. #2 Long Grain Paddy, 55/70 yield #2 55/70 $420.00 per mt bulk FOB vessel NOLA
U.S. #5 L/G, max. 20% broken, WELL MILLED #5/20/wm $740.00 per MT sacked, F.A.S. U.S. Gulf
Southern U.S. - Package Quality Long Grain (add $1.50/cwt premium for sacked truck)
Package Quality Parboiled L/G, max. 4% broken Pkg. Parb. $40.25 per cwt. bulk F.O.B. mill
Package Quality Long Grain Milled, max. 4% broken Pkg. L/G $36.75 per cwt. bulk F.O.B. mill
Package Quality Long Grain Milled, max. 4% broken (select variety) Pkg. L/G $38.25 per cwt. bulk F.O.B. mill
Package Quality Long Grain Brown Rice, max. 4% broken Pkg. Br. $38.25 per cwt. bulk F.O.B. mill
MERCOSUR QUOTES:
Uruguay Argentina Paraguay Brazil
Tacuari 5%** FOB container $840
Olimar 5% FOB container $760
generic 5% FOB vessel $705 $680 -- $720 Type 1
generic 5% FOB in containers $720
7.5% ex-mill $650 --- $600*
Parboiled 5% FOB container $785 $710 $735
Paddy FOB vessel $460 $390 $380 $375
Prices basis U.S. $ per mt. **Peru specs * - FOB Brazilian border
Paddy Report
UNITED STATES -- South $16.35 per cwt delivered to the river.
Texas A&M University’s crop survey shows 42% of the Texas crop has
been planted, with 12% having emerged, and 2% flooded. Otherwise, UNITED STATES -- California
Texas has very little paddy remaining unsold/uncommitted in first
hands. No new trading reported. California - - USDA Prospective Plantings notes:
Planted acres medium grain - 460,000 acres
Planted acres short grain - 27,000 acres
Louisiana - - USDA Prospective Plantings notes: Planted acres long grain - 10,000 acres
Planted acres long grain - 410,000 acres Total - 497,000 acres
Planted acres medium grain - 40,000 acres
Total - 450,000 acres As has been the case for quite some time, the paddy market is still
quiet. More rain and snow this past week ... California has the water,
Prices are unchanged, reflecting $18.52 per cwt FOB farm basis but now needs it to stop so they can get the crop planted.
55/70/#2 (or $30.00 per barrel). Planting of the new crop continues
as the weather allows. - Northern Sierra Precipitation: 8-Station Index
- Current Conditions of Major Water Supply Reservoirs
L/G prices are basis #2 55/70, Southern M/G prices are basis #2 58/69, California M/G prices are basis #1 55/70. Mid-South -- Arkansas, Missouri, Mississippi, northeast Louisiana.
* These areas do not have sufficient supplies of this type to quote.
Southeast Asia - Widespread showers remained firmly en- Argentina - Warm, sunny weather promoted rapid growth of
trenched in the seasonally wetter southern reaches of the re- latedeveloping summer grains, oilseeds, and cotton. Complete
gion. Most areas recorded 25 to 100 mm, although some key dryness dominated a large section of the north and east, while
oil palm producing locales in Malaysia and Indonesia tallied scattered, mostly light showers (2-25 mm, locally approach-
less than 25 mm. These aforementioned oil palm areas have ing 50 mm) were confined to southern and western Buenos
been consistently receiving sub-par precipitation since the Aires, La Pampa, and Córdoba. Weekly average temperatures
latter half of January, raising concerns about yield potential. ranged from 2 to 5°C above normal throughout the main ag-
Meanwhile, droughtstricken portions of the northern Philip- ricultural delegations, with daytime highs reaching the upper
pines reported more rainfall (topping 100 mm locally), further 20s and lower 30s (degrees C) in the highyielding farming ar-
easing season-long moisture deficits for corn and rice. Nev- eas of central Argentina (La Pampa, Buenos Aires, and neigh-
ertheless, more rain is needed to fully eradicate drought in boring locations to the north). Hotter weather (35-40°C) was
this area. Elsewhere, showers flared in parts of Thailand and reported in the traditionally warmer northern farming areas,
the surrounding locations, producing upwards of 50 mm for reaching as far south as Córdoba. According to the govern-
second-season crops and bringing a respite from early-season ment of Argentina, sunflowers were 77 percent harvested (57
heat. percent last year) as of March 27, with harvesting 69 and 84
percent completed, respectively, in Buenos Aires and La Pam-
pa. Meanwhile, corn was 7 percent harvested, 3 points behind
Eastern Asia - Early-week showers in eastern wheat and rape- last year’s pace.
seed areas of China gave way to warmer, drier weather. Wheat
on the North China Plain was solidly vegetative at this point
(on pace with the average) and benefited from upwards of 25 Brazil - Following last week’s beneficial rainfall, dry weather
mm of rain early in the period. Similarly, flowering rapeseed returned to much of the south, where moisture was adequate
(on pace with the average) in the Yangtze Valley benefited from at best for immature summer crops. Aside from isolated, gen-
rainfall totals topping 25 mm across a wide area. Additionally, erally light showers (5-25 mm) concentrated over northern
temperatures began to climb after the showers passed, ending Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina, near complete dryness
the week up to 9°C above average in some areas. The subse- prevailed from Mato Grosso do Sul and southern portions of
quent warm, sunny weather advanced winter crop develop- São Paulo southward. Summer warmth (highs ranging from
ment and maintained favorable yield prospects. However, the the upper 20s to middle 30s degrees C) maintained high crop
above-average temperatures manifested as unseasonable heat moisture demands and losses through evaporation, exacerbat-
(over 30°C) in the southeast and southern-most provinces, ne- ing the effects of the dryness on summer crops growing with
cessitating increased irrigation for vegetative early-crop rice. limited moisture. According to government reports, first-crop
corn and soybeans were 91 and 87 percent harvested, respec-
tively, in Paraná as of March 25; second-crop corn was 99 per-
Australia - In southern Queensland, soaking rain (25-100 mm, cent planted, with nearly 35 percent of the crop in flowering to
locally more) hampered summer crop maturation and harvest- filling stages of development. In Rio Grande do Sul, 8 percent
ing, but the wet weather helped increase topsoil moisture in of soybeans were harvested as of March 28, with the majority of
advance of wheat and other winter crop planting. In contrast, the crop (46 percent) in the pod filling stage; meanwhile, corn
isolated showers in New South Wales provided little additional was 75 percent harvested. In contrast to the southern dryness,
moisture for the region’s water supplies, but the relative dry- widespread, locally heavy showers benefited immature corn
ness aided drydown of cotton and sorghum and allowed har- and cotton in most major production areas. The heaviest rain-
vesting to proceed at a relatively brisk pace. Elsewhere in the fall (50-100 mm, locally reaching 150 mm) overspread Mato
wheat belt, dry weather persisted in the south and west, further Grosso, Goiás, and over a large area stretching from western
reducing moisture supplies in advance of winter crop planting. Minas Gerais northward, although pockets of dryness were re-
Rain would be welcome to help condition the soil in advance of corded in western Bahia and southern Piauí. Highest daytime
wheat, barley, and canola planting. Sowing typically begins in temperatures generally ranged in the lower and middle 30s in
April each year. Temperatures averaged within 2°C of normal the wetter northern locations.
throughout most of the wheat belt, with maximum tempera-
tures in the lower and middle 30s (degrees C) in most areas.
Apr. 4 KCCO (inv 2000009988) tender to buy 140mt of rice. Mar. 19 KCCO (inv 2000009948) tender to buy 410mt of rice.
Bought at $872.96 per mt intermodal Houston.
Apr. 11 Taiwan three auctions for CSQ import licenses for any type of
rice: 18,500mt USA, 4,000mt Australian, 7150mt Thai.
rice Mar. 20 BULOG tender to buy 300,000 MT of white rice with 5%.
Results are pending, but Viet rice is believed to be the lowest priced offers
Apr. 25 AARQ EU-27 TRQ auction for the July 2024 tranche. at $609 per mt C&F.
Mar. 21 Korea MA tenders totaling 77,774mt of USA medium grain,
22,222mt of Chinese short grain, and 900mt Viet long grain. Only USA
TENDER RESULTS origin bought, at prices ranging $700.50 - $854.67 per mt delivered inland
warehouse.
Jan. 29 Japan SBS tender. Bought 9,465mt of whole grain and 800mt Mar. 26 Taiwan (GF4-113027 ) 500mt USA short grain milled rice, the
of brokens. price tender is March 29. Awarded at $1211.75.
Feb. 1 AARQ UK TRQ auction for the April 2024 tranche. Results Apr. 2 KCCO (inv 2000009976) tender to buy 2680mt of rice.
posted - lowest winning bid $15.00. Results pending.
Rice Co-Products - Spot market prices basis $ per short ton bulk, FOB mill (spot prices)
Texas Louisiana Arkansas California
Bran: $35-40 $80 $45 (defatted - no quote) $135-140
Mill Feed: $25 $25 -- -
Ground Hulls: $0-2 $7 $0 -
Unground Hulls: $0-2 $7 $0 $0 - $4
Notes:
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