Module-II

Developing A Manpower Plan

Meaning

Manpower Planning or Human Resource Planning is essentially the process of getting the right
number of qualified people into the right job at the right time. It is a system matching of supply
of people and demand for people. Manpower planning requires an in-depth knowledge of how
the human resource system / manpower system operates, with emphasis on the flow (supply and
demand) of people into, through and out of the organization. On the supply side, manpower
planning requires accurate and current information regarding the qualitative and quantitative
factors such as, skills invention and public policy towards manpower resource. On the demand
side, attention is paid to such factors as productivity, technological changes, and sales forecast.
Supply and demand are continuously balanced within the framework of organizational goals and
priorities. A step wise manpower planning process is given below:

• Manpower Demand Forecasting

• Manpower supply forecasting

• Manpower inventory

• Forecasting the Wastage

• Reconciling Demand and Supply

Manpower Demand Forecasting

The process of human resource planning /manpower planning begins with the forecasting of
manpower demand. This forecasting must be in line with the organizational plan or objectives.
The manpower demand forecasting is done in terms of

(I) Additional number of employees required

(II) Category to which the additional employees will belong,
(III) Education, knowledge aptitudes, and experience of the employees required additionally.

Under these techniques, there are some conceptual issues which need elaboration which are:

• Manpower Forecast

• Need for Manpower Forecast

• Types of Forecasts, and

• Data Base for Manpower Forecasting

Manpower Forecast

Under the manpower forecasting, there is a need to make a distinction between ‘projection’ and
forecasts. ‘Projection’ may be defined as the outcome of spontaneous forces or occurring without
external causes or we can say that outcome which is expected in the normal course of events
without external stimulus. On the other hand, forecast refer to a prediction of the outcome when
normal course of event is influenced and altered by external forces.

Need for Manpower Forecast

The basic fundamental reason for making manpower forecast is the long gestation lags in the
production of skilled professional people. Manpower forecast made in advance, that facilitate
planning of education/ training in effort to ensure that skilled manpower required are available at
the time when they are needed. The second major reason for adopting this method in
imperfections in labor market due to huge educated unemployment or people taking those
occupations for which they are not adequate prepared. Manpower forecasts, would facilitate
corrections of labor market distortions. The third reason for adopting these techniques are
production of goods and services require various categories of skilled manpower in fixed
proportions. If there is any shortage of skilled category of manpower that would adversely affect
the production of goods and services within economy. And the manpower forecasts would help
to avoid such type of situation by facilitating anticipation of skill shortages and planning skill
supplies accordingly.

Types of Forecasts

Types of manpower forecast depending on the purpose for which forecasts are made. Some
major types of forecasts are briefly described as follows:

1. Short-term forecast: This forecast is made for a period not exceeding two years. This
forecast is made for facilitate estimation of financial provisions for wages/salaries in the projects
initiated or likely to be initiated in the immediate future. It is useful in resource allocation among
competing programme which is to be implemented in the not-too-distant future. It is very useful
at the Micro level or say company level.

2. Medium-term forecasts: This forecast is made for a two to five years in most countries. It is
useful in those offices which are concerned with advising ministers or preparing contingency
plans to meet the ‘twist and turns or economic circumstances or international events.

3. Long-term forecasts: Forecasts for a period more than five years are considered as long-
term-forecasts. This type of forecast is very useful in educational planning relating to the high
skilled professional categories of manpower. They are also useful in the preparation of corporate
plans, incorporating productive changes. Technological changes and major organizational
developments.

Database For Manpower Forecasting

Database has a crucial role to play in manpower forecasting as it determines the methodologies
that can be adopted. There is a different database for macro and micro that are as follows:

Database for Macro Forecasting

For macro forecasting, it would be ideal to have comparable data on the following items over a
period of years in the past.

• Population Statistics

It focuses on population of country by age, gender, education, economic activities, status,

migration, marital status, region and rural-urban distribution are needed.

• Data on Economic Parameters

Under this parameter data is required on time series basis are inputs, output, capital, investment,
wages, productivity, value added, depreciation by industry, consumption, savings and
expenditure on health by income of population in rural-urban areas of each region.

• Information on Technologies

Details about existing technologies are needed by industry specifying the implications of each
technology for employment, generation and investment. Similar information is also needed on
emerging technologies by industry.

Data Base for Micro Forecasting

Under this, a well-defined Manpower Information System (MIS) is needed at the enterprise or
company level. MIS have the following module.

• Personal Data Module- Identification particulars, educational particulars, educational

qualifications.

• Recruitment Module- Date of recruitment, grading in aptitude tests, grading in leadership tests,
overall grading, job preference and choice etc.

• Job Experience Module- Placement history, grade promotions, tasks performed grade-wise,
significant contributions etc.
• Performance Appraisal Module- Performance appraisal at each job held, job evaluation on the
basis of job description, communication rating, rating of interpersonal relationships, rating of
behavior in group commitment of corporate goals etc.

• Training and Development Module- Nature of training received at each level, individuals
evaluation of effectiveness of training, individual assessment of training needs vis-à-vis currently
being performed etc.

• Miscellaneous Module- Record of compensation and benefits received health status

information relating personal problems which calls for the attention by the authorities, security
needs etc.

MIS is developed on the basis of personnel history records of each individual employee within
the enterprise or company and is updated every year.

Manpower Supply Forecasting

The next step in the process of manpower planning involved is to find out that how much
demand of manpower can be met from within. This can be possible through the manpower
supply forecasting. The manpower supply forecasting will involve following steps:

a) Manpower inventory: Manpower Inventory helps in determining and evaluating the quantity
and quality of the present manpower of an organization. Therefore, through inventory
organization comes to know that what exists in the stock in terms of analysis (I) number of
employees, (II) the categories to which they belong (III) employees’ skills, abilities, potentials,
age etc.

b) Forecasting the wastage: After having analyzed the above facts as a part of manpower
supply forecast it is necessary to know the possible wastage in the existing stock in the future.
These wastages may include, retirements, deaths, terminations, resignations, deputations etc. The
total wastage worked out in the above terms must be deducted out of the existing inventories in
order to get the net manpower supply forecast.

Reconciliation of Demand & Supply

Another technique in manpower planning by matching the information of demand and supply
(after netting the losses) future resources unbalanced can be predicted the entire process of
working out the net additional manpower requirement. The process of manpower planning must
ultimately result in the formulation of a manpower plan. A typical human resource planning
system is as follows:

Human Resource Planning System

1- Organizational Goal & Plan

2-Human Resource Demand Forecast

• Number

• Category/level

• Specialization

3-Human Resource Supply Forecast

• Number

• Category/level

• Specialization

• Age etc.

4-Matching Process

 Net Human resource requirement Forecast

 Resource Gaps (No. Skilled Shortage/ Supplies)
 Human Resource Wastage Forecast
 Net Manpower Supply Forecast

5-Implementation & Feedback

It is the time to implement MPP and supervise it. By evaluating and taking feedback the
management identifies the deviations of plans and takes corrective measures.

Quantitative & Qualitative Side of Manpower Planning

Quantitative side includes

(i) The Economic Considerations relating to determination of economic situation and in the light
of that future sales and production estimates are made. These estimates affect manpower
requirements.

(ii) Expansion programme in future also affect future manpower requirements.

(iii) Availability of existing manpower resources of different kinds should be kept in mind. This
is helpful in forecasting future manpower requirements.

(iv) Rate of labor turnover is an important instrument with the help of which estimates with
regard to future manpower requirements can be made. It provides required information
statistically i.e. how many employees have left and joined the organization during a specific
period of time. Labor turnover rates are calculated by applying separation method, replacement
approach and flux method. In the light of labor turnover rate future manpower requirements can
be estimated.

(v) Resignations and retirements, promotion, demotion, separation, transfers, dismissals and lay
off etc. are other important considerations to be borne in mind before initiating the process of
human resources planning.

(vi) Changes in the management thinking, philosophy and plans etc. also affect manpower plans.
Technological changes and diversifications etc. bring about changes in the skills and
performance of workers.

Qualitative Considerations

(i) Work-load analysis. It is a technical aspect of manpower planning. It includes and studies
auditing of human resources, study of work standards and demand analysis etc.

(ii) Auditing of Employees Involves Preparation of Skill Inventory. Skill inventory covers data
regarding skill and work priorities pertaining to work of different categories of workers. Big
organizations prepare organizational charts and other employee information cards for this
purpose.

(iii) Study of work standards is necessary for the quality of workers required. It is indispensable
for preparing job analysis which includes job specifications and job descriptions.

Behavioral Event interviewing

Behavioral Event Interviewing (BEI) is a technique that asks the candidate to describe a situation
or an experience they had in a previous job. ... Nonetheless, the interviewer gathers valuable
information from experiential responses because past performance predicts future performance.
The purpose of the BEI method is to get behind what people say they do to find out what they
really do. This is accomplished by asking people to describe how they actually behaved in
specific incidents.

How to Conduct the Interview

The BEI is conducted by a team of basically three members. They are one interviewer and two
recorders. The interviewer asks questions based on past experience depending on the
competencies to be measured. For example, if the interviewer wants to measure competency,
he/she can ask question on how the interviewee had faced difficulties in his/her past job and what
remedial steps he/she had taken.

Step 1. Explanation
The interviewer explanations like this: “I’ve been asked to try to figure out what competencies it
takes to do your job. The best approach seems to be to ask a person who is doing a job how he or
she does it. If the interviewer identifies the competencies needed for a job, he/she can select a
person who has those competencies. At this point the interviewer should get the permission of
the interviewee to record the interview to review the competencies. The interviewer can explain
“With your permission, I will like to record parts of this interview to help me with my notes and
I will keep confidential everything you say and will not be shared with any one”.

Step 2. Duties and Responsibilities

It is a good idea to break the ice by getting the interviewee talking about what he or she does in a
general way, that is, about what his or her duties and responsibilities are. The objective here is to
get the interviewee talking in as free and relaxed way as possible as about his or her job.
Sometimes interviewees have difficulty getting started, but most of them find it easy to talk
about their work and they like telling others what they do. It is wise not to push the behavioral
event approach on them too soon; lead into it gradually. For example:

 “What are your responsibilities in your job?”,

 “Where do you work?”,
 “Whom do you work with?”,
 “What are your working hours?”,
 “Whom do you report”?
 “Who reports you?” etc.

Step 3. First Behavioral Event

To get a better idea on the first incident carried out by the interviewee which was full of
responsibility, it is important for the interviewer to be behavior specific. For example: the
interviewer may ask questions on? “Where were you at the time when such incident happened?”,
“What was the date of the incident”, “What kind of day it was?”, “What had you been doing
when this came up? and What was in your mind?”. Just by asking time, place, day etc. the
interviewer can easily investigate the situation or incident and the involvement of the
interviewee. The interview can be in “STAR Format”.

 S- Situation (Describe a specific Situation.).

 T- Task (Describe the Task associated with that situation).
 A-Action (Describe the Action to address the situation).
 R- Result (Describe the Result or Outcome of the action).

The interviewer should have in mind the basic questions as the interviewee begins to tell the
story. For example:

 What was the thought of the person towards the situation,

  What did the person do and why,
 What was the feeling of the person etc.

The interviewer judges the thought, perception, act and feelings of an interviewee in this first
behavioral event phase.

Step 4. Further Behavioral Events

The interviewer may find it easy in talking about an event in the area of supervision to move on
an example of when things didn’t go well. If the interviewee cannot think of one, the interviewer
can suggest situations like:

 “Did you ever have to fire someone?”,

 “Did you ever have any problem with any of your subordinate or superior?”,
 “Did you ever feel that things did not go well or according to your choice?”.

Hence, after reply of interviewee, the interviewer should be focused on three basic behavioral
events and judge him/her by comparing the situations of the interviewee with the organization
for which interview is being conducted. The main goal is to get the interviewee to talk about the
way he/she does the job and handles situations.

Step 5. Characteristics

It is often useful at the end of the interview to ask the interviewee what characteristics he or she
thinks a person ought to have to do his or her job well. This serves the double purpose of
establishing good relations by asking the interviewee’s opinion and also of giving you some
further insight into what he or she thinks is important.

Step 6. Summary and Writing

After the interview is over it is a good plan to sit down quietly for an hour and summarize what
is learned. This may include a brief characterization of the person who was interviewed. It also
helps the interviewer to define about unclear things or incidents. The interviewer rates the
interviewee on the basis of various competencies like: leadership skill, interpersonal skill,
motivational skill and so on. This is the best phase to write up the entire interview, while your
memory is still fresh.

Competency Mapping
Every individual is unique and it’s also true with modern organizations. It is very important for
the organizational success that we identify key skills required by its people to succeed in the
ever-changing market environment. Competency mapping is one such technique that makes use
of a more systematic and organized approach to define key behaviors that will lead to
organizational or project success. To be practical, it’s not easy to scientifically and objectively
define behavior, that’s where competency mapping proves to be a powerful tool in the hands of
the human resource and key stakeholders within the organization. Competency may take the
following forms:

 Knowledge
 Attitude
 Skill
 Values
 Motives
 Traits
 Self-concept

Definition of Competency Mapping

Competency mapping is the process of identifying the specific skills, knowledge, abilities, and
behaviors required to operate effectively in a specific job or organization. Competency maps are
often also referred to as competency profiles or skills profiles.

Competency was first popularized by Boyatzis (1982) with Research Results on clusters of
competencies. “A capacity that exists in a person that leads to behavior that meets the job
demands within parameters of organizational environment, and that, in turn bring about desired
results”.

Unido (2002), stated that a competency is a set of skills, related knowledge and attributes that
allow an individual to successfully perform a task or an activity within a specific function or job.

Key Result Area (KRA) & Key Performance Indicators (KPI)

KRA- KRAs broadly define the job profile for the employee and enable them to have better
clarity of their role. KRAs should be well-defined, quantifiable and easy to measure. It also helps
employees to align their role with that of the organization.

KPI- KPIs are quantifiable measure of performance over time for a specific objective. KPIs
provide targets for teams, milestones to gauge progress and insight that help people across the
organization make better decisions.

Steps in Competency Mapping Process

These are not simply the steps but also the construct of the competency map. Each one of the
steps also from the elements in the competency map that you develop into a framework.

1. Classification of Competencies
Generally, the competencies are classified into two categories. Functional and Behavioral.
However, the competency can be classified into more categories depending on the overall
objective of developing a competency framework through the process of competency mapping.

2. Definition of Competencies

It is very important that competency is defined well. This helps in providing a clear picture of
what exactly is the detail about the set of skills and abilities required to do the job. For example,
where for a sales team the competency has been classified as functional and it has been clearly
defined.

3. Identifying Behavioral Indicators (BI)

The key element of any competency mapping process and developing a competency framework
is the set of behaviors that defines that competency. In the above example, we have already
classified the competency as functional. Also, we have defined the competency, now the
behavioral indicators will be assigned. A behavioral indicator is an observable behavior that
indicates the presence of the particular competency. It is this type of indicator for which a
selecting manager will probe in conducting a behavioral interview of a candidate. Behavioral
indicators for this would include the ability to adequately assess the situation, make sound
judgment, use relevant information to support the decision, and be able to distinguish useful
information from the irrelevant one when making a decision.

4. Identifying Proficiency Levels (PL)

Not every person in a department will be at the same level of expertise or in the context of
competency mapping, at the same level of proficiency. Therefore, it is critical that within a job
role, department, level or grade of employees the desired proficiency levels are defined. Once
you assess and measure proficiency levels then you would arrive at actual proficiency levels
(APL).

5.Defining Proficiency Levels

We have added the DFL (Defining Functional Levels) for Level 2 managers in sales force to give
you an insight. A Scale of 1 to 5 is used where 5 is the maximum level of proficiency as 1 is the
minimum.

Tools Used in Competency Mapping

1. Interviews

Competency-based interviews may be structured, semi-structured or unstructured depending on

the person conducting the competency mapping. Interview should be carefully designed so as to
provide information about both the easily observed information and the general disposition and
motivation of the employee. Questions prepared should target each competency and give an
overview of the tangible skills and knowledge possessed by the employee, how he or she acts
under certain conditions, and how they behave with other people. The questions focus on relating
past job performance to future on the job performance. Biasness and distortion of flow should be
avoided as much as possible (Balaji, 2011). If handled effectively, interviews can prove to be a
powerful technique for getting accurate details and obtaining information which may otherwise
be unavailable.

2. Competency-Based Questionnaire

Competency mapping questionnaires consist of a list of questions either standardized or prepared

solely for the purpose of competency mapping which the employees are expected to fill. There
may be competency mapping questionnaire for employees or for managers depending on the
level at which the mapping is being conducted. One form of a questionnaire is the Common
Metric Questionnaire (CMQ) that makes use of five domains to examine competencies to
improve work performance. These five domains are as follows: background, contact with people,
decision making, physical and mechanical activity and work setting. Another form is Functional
Job Analysis (FJA) which is a qualitative analysis and breaks the job down to seven parts: things,
data, worker instructions, reasoning, people, mathematics and language. The behavior and
actions of the employees in the seven areas is a part of FJA.

3. Assessment and Development Centers

Assessment centers is a process (and not a location) that helps to determine the suitability of
employees to specific type of employment or job role. Using validated tests, different elements
of the job are simulated. The candidates or employees are expected to complete a number of
assessments specifically designed to assess the key competencies required for the job role they
are applying. These tests focus on assessing the individual based on their knowledge, skills,
attitudes and other behaviors. An essential feature of this process is using situational test to
observe job specific behavior.

4. Critical Incidents Technique

This technique was developed by Flanagan (1954) and involves direct observation of the
employee in specific situations. The observations should be recorded as accurately as possible
since it would be used to identify behaviors that contribute to success or failure of individual or
organization in a specific situation. First step, is to make a list of good and bad on the job
behavior. After this, the supervisors should be trained to note down incidents when the employee
was successful or not successful in meeting the job requirements. At the end of the year, a
balance sheet for each employee is created to find how well the employee has performed (Balaji,
2011).

5. Psychometric Tests
These are standardized and scientific tools used to assess the mental capacities and behavioral
styles of employees in an organization. The most commonly used psychometric assessment is
aptitude, achievement and personality testing. Aptitude tests help to determine the capacity of the
individual to acquire with training a particular type of skill or knowledge. Achievement tests
help to determine the level of proficiency an individual has achieved in a given area. Personality
testing gives a description of the unique traits and characteristics that drive the employee’s
behavior. Apart from these, competency mapping rating scale may also be used as a part of
assessment. These competency mapping methods can be used individually or as a combination to
provide a comprehensive detail about the competencies of the employee and the job
requirements.

Cohort Analysis:-

Cohort Analysis: Cohort means homogeneous groups. Length of the service is an important
variable of wastage analysis. Eliminates the defect of labor turnover index. More accurate for a
small homogenous group. Changing social and economic conditions can invalidate this analysis
Number remaining at a given time * 100 Number engaged at the start.

Absenteeism = (Number of Man days lost due to Absence/Total Man days Planned) *100
number engaged at the start

Census analysis : Major deficiencies of cohort analysis is that it holds good for a small
homogenous group. Census analysis can eliminate this problem taking into account a cross-
section of the organization. Census analysis requires three sets of data as under: The number of
employees at the beginning of the census The number of employees at the end of the census The
number of leavers during the census period.