AQ022-3-1 & Quantitative Skills

Sampling Distribution

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 Topic & Structure of the lesson

▪This topic is divided into 2 parts:

➢ Part A: Sampling Distribution
➢ Part B: Estimation

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 Learning Outcomes

▪Part A: Sampling distribution:

➢ At the end of this section, you should be
able to:
➢ Recognise what a sampling distribution is and
how it differs from other types of probability
distribution
➢ Make statistical statements that rely upon
knowledge of the central limit theorem.

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 Key Terms you must be able to use
If you have mastered this topic, you should be able to use the following
terms correctly in your in-course assessments and final exam:

➢ Sampling distribution
➢ Population
➢ Sample
➢ Mean
➢ Standard deviation
➢ Proportion
➢ Standard error
➢ Central limit theorem
➢ Statistical inference

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 Sampling Distribution

The subset of the

population that
The entire studied
collection of subject
affected by the
research

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 Sampling Distribution

▪Introduction
➢ Is the probability distribution of all possible sample
means of n items drawn from a population.
➢ Such a distribution exists not only for the mean but for
any point estimate.
➢ Properties
➢ Very close to being normally distributed
➢ The mean of the sampling is the same as the population
mean.
➢ It has a standard deviation which is called the standard
error.

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 ▪Standard Error
➢ The standard deviation of the sampling distribution.
➢ It measures the extent to which we expect the means from the
different samples to vary because of the chance error in the
sampling process.

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 Notation used:

Sample Population

Size n N
Mean
Standard deviation s
Variance
Proportion p

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 Required to know how to:

➢Determine the standard error of the

➢ mean
➢ with finite population size
➢ And known population standard deviation
➢ And unknown population standard deviation
➢ With infinite population size
➢ And known population standard deviation
➢ And unknown population standard deviation

➢ proportion
➢ With finite population size
➢ With infinite population size

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 Standard error of the Population finite Population infinite

Mean
  N − n  
- Known population
standard deviation n  N − 1  n

- Unknown population s  N − n  s
standard deviation
n  N − 1  n

p(1 − p)  N − n 
Proportion
  p (1 − p )

n  N − 1  n

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 Example 4.1

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 Standard error of the Population finite Population infinite

Mean
  N − n  
- Known population
standard deviation n  N − 1  n

- Unknown population s  N − n  s
standard deviation
n  N − 1  n

p(1 − p)  N − n 
Proportion
  p (1 − p )

n  N − 1  n

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 Example 4.2

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 Standard error of the Population finite Population infinite

Mean
  N − n  
- Known population
standard deviation n  N − 1  n

- Unknown population s  N − n  s
standard deviation
n  N − 1  n

p(1 − p)  N − n 
Proportion
  p (1 − p )

n  N − 1  n

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 Example 4.3

• Fit-n-Trim caters primarily to middle-aged men who wish to lose weight

through a regular program of exercise. They have 194 of these men who
have been members for at least one year. After sampling 40 of these
men, they have found that the average weight loss was 12 pounds and
the sample standard deviation was 4 pounds. What is the estimated
standard error of this mean ?

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 Standard error of the Population finite Population infinite

Mean
  N − n  
- Known population
standard deviation n  N − 1  n

- Unknown population s  N − n  s
standard deviation
n  N − 1  n

p(1 − p)  N − n 
Proportion
  p (1 − p )

n  N − 1  n

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 Example 4.4

• Last year a sample was taken for 40 of the 200

active training centres for vocational rehabilitation
of handicapped veterans. It was determined from
the sample that 1312 of the 1600 trainees sampled
who completed the program were able to locate
jobs. Each of the 200 centres had 40 trainees each.
Provide an estimate of the standard error of the
proportion of job placement success.

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 Standard error of the Population finite Population infinite

Mean
  N − n  
- Known population
standard deviation n  N − 1  n

- Unknown population s  N − n  s
standard deviation
n  N − 1  n

p(1 − p)  N − n 
Proportion
  p (1 − p )

n  N − 1  n

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 ▪Central limit theorem
➢ It states that as the sample size increases, the sampling
distribution of the mean approaches the normal distribution in
form, regardless of the form of the population distribution.
➢ For practical purposes, the sampling distribution of the mean
can be assumed to be approximately normal, regardless of the
population distribution whenever the sample size is at least
30.

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 ▪Statistical inference
➢ Statistical inference can be defined as the
process by which conclusions are drawn about
some measure or attributes of a population
based upon analysis of sample data.
➢ Statistical inference can be divided into two
types
➢Estimation
➢Hypothesis testing

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 Learning Outcomes

▪Part B: Estimation
➢ At the end of this section, you should be
able to:
➢ Make a confidence interval estimate of a
population mean.
➢ Make a confidence interval estimate of a
population proportion,
➢ Determine the appropriate sample size for
interval estimation of means and proportions.

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 Key Terms you must be able to use

If you have mastered this topic, you should be able to use

the following terms correctly in your in-course
assessments and final exam:

➢ Confidence intervals
➢ Lower confidence limit
➢ Upper confidence limit
➢ Critical value
➢ Normal distribution
➢ t-distribution
➢ Degree of freedom
➢ Margin of error

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 Estimation

▪Introduction
➢ Deals with the estimation of population
characteristics from sample statistics
➢ The distribution of sample means follows a
normal curve.

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 Estimation

• To determine the approximate value of a population parameter based on

a sample
• There are two types of estimators: -
• Point estimator

• Interval estimator

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 Confidence Interval
• Deals with the estimation of population characteristics from sample
statistics
• The distribution of sample means follows a normal curve.
• A confidence interval provides additional information about variability

This is confidence interval

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 ➢Point Estimates

We can estimate a with a Sample

Population Parameter … Statistic
(a Point Estimate)

Mean μ x
Proportion π p

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 • Confidence intervals:
➢ the mean of your estimate plus and minus the variation in that
estimate.
➢ range of values that you expect your estimate to fall between a
certain percentage of the time if you run your experiment again or
re-sample the population in the same way
➢ Is expressed as a % whereby a population mean lies between an
upper and lower interval.

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 Constructing Confidence Interval

• The general formula for all confidence intervals is:

Point Estimate  (Critical Value)(Standard Error)

Test statistics score Standard deviation of

Sample mean sample
(obtain the value using
test statistics table)

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 Graphically, the actual location of the population
mean, 𝜇

1-𝛼
LCL UCL
𝛼ൗ 𝛼ൗ
2 2

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 Confidence
Intervals

Population Population
Mean Proportion

σ Known σ Unknown

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 ▪Confidence interval for  (σ known)
➢ Assumptions
➢ Population standard deviation σ is known
➢ Population is normally distributed
➢ If population is not normal, use large sample
➢ Confidence interval estimate
σ
x  z α/2
n

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 ➢ Commonly used confidence levels are 90%, 95%, and 99%

Confidence
Confidence Level 𝒁𝜶ൗ
Coefficient, 𝟏 − 𝜶 𝟐

80% 0.80 1.28

90% 0.90 1.645
95% 0.95 1.96
99% 0.99 2.576

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 Example 4.5

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 ➢95% confidence interval:
σ
x  z /2
n

= 2.20  1.96 (.35/ 11)

= 2.20  .2068

1.9932 .......... ..... 2.4068

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 ➢ Interpretation
➢ We are 95% confident that the true mean resistance is between 1.9932 and
2.4068 ohms
➢ Although the true mean may or may not be in this interval, 95% of intervals
formed in this manner will contain the true mean
➢ An incorrect interpretation is that there is 95% probability that this interval
contains the true population mean.

(This interval either does or does not contain the true mean, there is no probability for a
single interval)

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 Example 4.7

After a particularly warm nights, 10 worms surfaced

on the lawn. Their lengths, measured in cm, were
9.5 9.5 11.2 10.6 9.9 11.1 10.9
9.8 10.1 10.2
Assuming that this sample came from a normal
population with variance 4, calculate a 95%
confidence interval for the mean length of all the
worms in the garden.

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 Confidence
Intervals

Population Population
Mean Proportion

σ Known σ Unknown

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 ▪ Confidence interval for μ (σ Unknown)
➢ If the population standard deviation σ is unknown, we can
substitute the sample standard deviation, s
➢ This introduces extra uncertainty, since s is variable from
sample to sample
➢ So we use the t distribution instead of the normal
distribution

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 ➢Assumptions
➢Population standard deviation is unknown
➢Population is normally distributed
➢If population is not normal, use large sample
➢Use Student’s t Distribution
➢Confidence Interval Estimate

s
x  t /2
n
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 ➢ The t is a family of distributions
➢ The t value depends on degrees of freedom
(d.f.)
➢ Number of observations that are free to vary
after sample mean has been calculated
d.f. = n - 1

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 Example 4.8
➢ A random sample of n = 25 has x = 50 and
s = 8. Form a 95% confidence interval for μ.

➢ d.f. = n – 1 = 24, so t /2 , n−1 = t.025,24 = 2.0639

The confidence interval is

s 8
x  t/2 = 50  (2.064)
n 25
= (46.698, 53.302)

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 ➢ Approximation for Large samples
➢ Since t approaches z as the sample size increases,
an approximation is sometimes used when n  30:

Technically Approximation
correct for large n

s s
x  t /2 x  z /2
n n

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 ➢Student’s t-distribution
➢ Note: t z as n increases

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 Example 4.9

A random sample of 120 measurements taken from a normal population gave the
following data:
n = 120, , s = 1.44  x = 1008
Find
(a) a 97% confidence interval
(b) a 99% confidence interval

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 ➢ Margin of Error (e): the amount added and
subtracted to the point estimate to form the
confidence interval
Example: Margin of error for estimating μ, σ known:

σ σ
x  z /2 e = z /2
n n

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 ➢ Determining Sample Size
➢ The required sample size can be found to reach a
desired margin of error (e) and level of confidence (1 - )
➢ Required sample size, σ known:

2
σ  z /2 σ 
2 2
z
n= /2
= 
 e 
2
e

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 Confidence
Intervals

Population Population
Mean Proportion

σ Known σ Unknown

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 ▪ Confidence Intervals for the Population
Proportion, p
➢ An interval estimate for the population proportion ( π)
can be calculated by adding an allowance for
uncertainty to the sample proportion ( p )

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 ▪ Confidence intervals endpoints
➢Upper and lower confidence limits for the
population proportion are calculated with
the formula
 p (1 − p ) 
p  Z   

2
 n 
where
➢z is the standard normal value for the level of
confidence desired
➢p is the sample proportion
➢n is the sample size

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 Example 4.12

➢ Example:
➢ A random sample of 100 people shows that 25 are
left-handed.
➢ Form a 95% confidence interval for the true
proportion of left-handers

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 1. p = 25/100 = 0.25
0.25(1 − 0.25)
2. SE = = 0.0433
100

3. CI = 0.25 1.96 (0.0433)

= (0.1651, 0.3349)

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 ➢ Interpretation
➢We are 95% confident that the true
percentage of left-handers in the population
is between 16.51% and 33.49%.

➢Although this range may or may not contain

the true proportion, 95% of intervals formed
from samples of size 100 in this manner will
contain the true proportion.

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 ▪ Changing the sample size
➢Increases in the sample size reduce the
width of the confidence interval.
➢ Example:
➢If the sample size in the above example is doubled
to 200, and if 50 are left-handed in the sample,
then the interval is still centered at .25, but the
width shrinks to
.19 …… .31

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 ➢ Finding the required sample size for proportion
problems

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 Example 4.13

➢ What Sample size ?

➢ How large a sample would be necessary to estimate
the true proportion defective in a large population
within 3%, with 95% confidence? Assume a pilot
sample yields 𝒑ഥ = .12

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 For 95% confidence, use Z = 1.96
e = .03
p = .12, so use this to estimate p

z 2 /2 p (1 − p) (1.96)2 (.12)(1 − .12)

n= 2
= 2
= 450.74
e (.03)

So use n = 451

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 What we will cover next

▪ Hypothesis Testing

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