Module 1 – Problem Answers

Probability
1. A pharmaceutical company conducted a study to evaluate the
effect of an allergy relief medicine; 250 patients with symptoms
that included itchy eyes and a skin rash received the new drug. The
results of the study are as follows: 90 of the patients treated
experienced eye relief, 135 had their skin rash clear up, and 45
experienced relief of both itchy eyes and the skin rash. What is the
probability that a patient who takes the drug will experience relief
of at least one of the two symptoms?
There are a total of 250 patients with 2 symptoms, itchy eyes and skin
rash.
This is a cross-tabulation problem, a table with two factors.
ER – Itchy Eyes Relieved ER – Itchy Eyes Not Relieved
SR – Skin Rash Relieved SR – Skin Rash Not Relieved
Itchy Eyes
Relieved Not Total
(ER) Relieved (
ER )
Skin Rash Relieved 45 A 135
(SR)
Not B C 115
Relieved (
SR ¿ ¿
Total 90 160 250

The above table shows the values that we had in the problem.
The letters represent the number that we had to find.
Our problem is to find the remaining numbers. The numbers
for the columns and rows have to add to the total.
A -the total of the row is 135 and we have 45, so the number
has to be 90.
B – the total of the column is 90 and we have 45, so the
number has to be 45.
C – Since B is 45 and the total for the row is 115, then C has
to be 70. This would also work for the column, A is 90 and
the column total is 160, so C is 70.
Itchy Eyes
Relieved Not Total
(ER) Relieved (
ER )
Skin Rash Relieved 45 90 135
(SR)
Not 45 70 115
Relieved (
SR ¿ ¿
Total 90 160 250

We can convert this to a probability table by dividing all of

the values by the total (250).
Itchy Eyes
Relieved Not Total
(ER) Relieved (
ER )
Skin Rash Relieved 45/250 = 90/250 = 135/250 =
(SR) .18 .36 .54
Not 45/250 = 70/250 = 115/250 =
Relieved ( .18 .28 .46
SR ¿ ¿
Total 90/250 = 160/250 = 250/250 =
.36 .64 1.0
 You can see that the probabilities is the rows and columns
add up to the totals.
What is the probability that a patient who takes the drug will
experience relief of at least one of the two symptoms?

P(SR) + P(ER) – P(both SR and ER) = .54 + .36 - .18 = .72

You could also use the actual numbers.

(90 + 135 – 45)/250 = .72

1.

School School Cost Other Totals

Quality or
Convenienc
e
Enrollment Full- 421 393 76 890
time
Status Part- 400 593 46 1039
time
Totals 821 986 122 1929

a. Develop joint probability table.

Divide each number by the grand total of 1929.
42/1929 = .218 etc.
 School School Cost Other Totals
Quality or
Convenienc
e
Enrollment Full- .218 .204 .039 .461
time
Status Part- .207 593 46 .539
time
Totals .425 .511 .064 1.000

b. Use the marginal probabilities of school quality, school cost or

convenience, and other to comment on the most important
reason for choosing a school.
Marginal probabilities are the probabilities of a single event.
In this case, it is P (School Quality ) = .425 P (School Cost or
Convenience) = .511 P ( Other) = .064
Cost/Convenience - Most Important - .511
Quality - Second - .425
Other - Least Important - .064

c. If a student goes full time, what is the probability that school

quality will be the first reason for choosing a school?

This is a conditional probability. The condition is that the

student goes full-time. You are only going to at those students
who go full-time.
 P (Quality| Full-time) = There are 890 students that go full-time
and 421 or those chose Quality.
P (Quality| Full-time) = 421/890 = .473
If you use probabilities, it is as follows:
P (Quality| Full-time) = .219/.461 = .475 (Difference due to
rounding)

d. P (Quality| Part-time) = 400/1039 = .385

e. Let A be the event that a student is full time and let B be the
event that the student lists school quality as the first reason for
applying. Are events A and B independent? Justify your answer.

Joint probability = product of two marginal probabilities, if

the two are independent (not related).

P (AB) = P (A) * P (B)

.218 = .461 * .425
.218 ≠ .196
Two events are not independent.
2. A consulting firm submitted a bid for a large research project. The
firm's management initially felt there was a 50/50 chance of getting
the bid. However, the agency to which the bid was sub mitted
subsequently requested additional information on the bid.
Experience indicates that on 75 % of the successful bids and 40%
of the unsuccessful bids the agency requested additional
information.

a. What is the prior probability that the bid will be successful (i.e.,
prior to receiving the request for additional information)?

P (yes) = .5 P (no) = .5

b. What is the conditional probability of a request for additional

information given that the bid will ultimately be successful?
P (Info | Yes) = .75 Probability that they ask for more
information given that the project was successful (yes).

P (Info| No) = .4

c. Compute a posterior probability that the bid will be successful

given that a request for additional information has been
received.

Two ways to do this, either by equation or table.

¿
P (Yes | Info) = P ( Yes ) P ( Info|Yes ¿ P ( Yes ) P ( Info|Yes ) + P ( No ) P(Info∨No) =

( .5 ) (.75)
( .5 ) (.75)+ ( .5 ) (.4)
 .375
.375+.20 = .652
¿
P (No | Info) = P ( No ) P ( Info| No¿ P ( Yes ) P ( Info|Yes ) + P ( No ) P( Info∨No) =

( .5 ) (.4)
( .5 ) (.75)+ ( .5 ) (.4)
.20
.375+.20 = .348

Events Prior Conditional Joint Posterior

Probabilities Probabilities Probabilities Probabilities
Yes .5 .75 .5(.75) .375/.575 =
= .375 .652
No .5 .4 .5(.4) = .20 .2/.575
= .348
.575 1.000
3. P(high quality oil) = 0.50
P(medium quality oil) = 0.20
P(no oil) = 0.30

a. What is the probability of finding oil?

It is the P(high quality) + P(medium quality) = .5 + .2 = .7

b. After 200 feet of drilling on the first well, a soil test is made.
The probabilities of finding the particular type of soil identified by
the test are

P(soil | high quality oil) = 0.20

P(soil | medium quality oil) = 0.20
P(soil | no oil) = 0.30

How should the firm interpret the soil test? What are the revised
probabilities, and what is the new probability of finding oil?

Events Prior Conditional Joint Posterior

Probabilities Probabilities Probabilities Probabilities
HQ .5 .2 .5 (.2) = .1 .1/.23
= .435
MQ .2 .2 .2 (.2) = .04 .04/.23
= .174
No .3 .3 .3 (.3) = .09 .09/.23
= .391
.23 1.00

New probability of find oil is .435 + .174 = .609