P-Value: Comprehensive Guide to Understand, Apply, and Interpretation
A p-value is a statistical metric used to assess a hypothesis by comparing it with observed
data.
This article delves into the concept of p-value, its calculation, interpretation, and
significance. It also explores the factors that influence p-value and highlights its limitations.
Table of Content
• What is P-value?
• How P-value is calculated?
• How to interpret p-value?
• P-value in Hypothesis testing
• Implementing P-value in Python
• Applications of p-value
What is the P-value?
The p-value, or probability value, is a statistical measure used in hypothesis testing to assess
the strength of evidence against a null hypothesis. It represents the probability of obtaining
results as extreme as, or more extreme than, the observed results under the assumption
that the null hypothesis is true.
In simpler words, it is used to reject or support the null hypothesis during hypothesis testing.
In data science, it gives valuable insights on the statistical significance of an independent
variable in predicting the dependent variable.
How P-value is calculated?
Calculating the p-value typically involves the following steps:
1. Formulate the Null Hypothesis (H0): Clearly state the null hypothesis, which typically
states that there is no significant relationship or effect between the variables.
2. Choose an Alternative Hypothesis (H1): Define the alternative hypothesis, which
proposes the existence of a significant relationship or effect between the variables.
3. Determine the Test Statistic: Calculate the test statistic, which is a measure of the
discrepancy between the observed data and the expected values under the null
hypothesis. The choice of test statistic depends on the type of data and the specific
research question.
4. Identify the Distribution of the Test Statistic: Determine the appropriate sampling
distribution for the test statistic under the null hypothesis. This distribution
represents the expected values of the test statistic if the null hypothesis is true.
5. Calculate the Critical-value: Based on the observed test statistic and the sampling
distribution, find the probability of obtaining the observed test statistic or a more
extreme one, assuming the null hypothesis is true.
6. Interpret the results: Compare the critical-value with t-statistic. If the t-statistic is
larger than the critical value, it provides evidence to reject the null hypothesis, and
vice-versa.
Its interpretation depends on the specific test and the context of the analysis. Several
popular methods for calculating test statistics that are utilized in p-value calculations.
Test Scenario Interpretation
A small p-value (smaller
Used when dealing with
than 0.05) indicates strong
large sample sizes or when
evidence against the null
the population standard
hypothesis, leading to its
deviation is known.
Z-Test (Z-Statistic) rejection.
Appropriate for small
sample sizes or when the
Similar to the Z-test
population standard
T-Test (T-Statistic) deviation is unknown.
A small p-value indicates
that there is a significant
Used for tests of
association between the
independence or goodness-
categorical variables,
of-fit.
leading to the rejection of
Chi-Square Test the null hypothesis.
A small p-value suggests
Commonly used in Analysis that at least one group
of Variance (ANOVA) to mean is different from the
compare variances between others, leading to the
groups. rejection of the null
F-Test hypothesis.
Measures the strength and A small p-value indicates
Correlation Test
direction of a linear that there is a significant
Test Scenario Interpretation
relationship between two linear relationship between
continuous variables. the variables, leading to
rejection of the null
hypothesis that there is no
correlation.
In general, a small p-value indicates that the observed data is unlikely to have occurred by
random chance alone, which leads to the rejection of the null hypothesis. However, it’s
crucial to choose the appropriate test based on the nature of the data and the research
question, as well as to interpret the p-value in the context of the specific test being used.
P-value in Hypothesis testing
The table given below shows the importance of p-value and shows the various kinds of
errors that occur during hypothesis testing.
Truth /Decision Accept h0 Reject h0
Correct decision based
h0 -> true on the given p-value Type I error (α)
(1-α)
Incorrect decision based
h0 -> false Type II error (β) on the given p-value
(1-β)
Type I error: Incorrect rejection of the null hypothesis. It is denoted by α (significance level).
Type II error: Incorrect acceptance of the null hypothesis. It is denoted by β (power level)
Let’s consider an example to illustrate the process of calculating a p-value for Two Sample
T-Test:
A researcher wants to investigate whether there is a significant difference in mean height
between males and females in a population of university students.
Suppose we have the following data:
• Group 1 (Males): n1 = 30, x1 = 175and s1=5
• Group 2 (Females): n2=35, x2 = 168 and s2 =6
Starting with interpreting the process of calculating p-value
Step 1: Formulate the Null Hypothesis (H0):
H0: There is no significant difference in mean height between males and females.
Step 2: Choose an Alternative Hypothesis (H1):
H1: There is a significant difference in mean height between males and females.
Step 3: Determine the Test Statistic:
The appropriate test statistic for this scenario is the two-sample t-test, which compares the
means of two independent groups.
The t-statistic is a measure of the difference between the means of two groups relative to
the variability within each group. It is calculated as the difference between the sample
means divided by the standard error of the difference. It is also known as the t-value or t-
score.
Where,
• x1 is the mean of the first sample
• x2 is the mean of the second sample
• s1 = First sample’s standard deviation
• s2 = Second sample’s standard deviation
• n1 = First sample’s sample size
• n2 = Second sample’s sample size
Therefore,
So, the calculated two-sample t-test statistic (t) is approximately 5.13.
Step 4: Identify the Distribution of the Test Statistic:
The t-distribution is used for the two-sample t-test. The degrees of freedom for the t-
distribution are determined by the sample sizes of the two groups.
The t-distribution is a probability distribution with tails that are thicker than those of the
normal distribution.
• where, n1 is total number of values for 1st category.
• n2 is total number of values for 2nd category.
So,
The degrees of freedom (63) represent the variability available in the data to estimate the
population parameters. In the context of the two-sample t-test, higher degrees of freedom
provide a more precise estimate of the population variance, influencing the shape and
characteristics of the t-distribution.
T-Statistic
The t-distribution is symmetric and bell-shaped, similar to the normal distribution. As the
degrees of freedom increase, the t-distribution approaches the shape of the standard
normal distribution. Practically, it affects the critical values used to determine statistical
significance and confidence intervals.
Step 5: Calculate Critical Value.
To find the critical t-value with a t-statistic of 5.13 and 63 degrees of freedom, we can either
consult a t-table or use statistical software.
Comparing with T-Statistic:
Since,
The larger t-statistic suggests that the observed difference between the sample means is
unlikely to have occurred by random chance alone. Therefore, we reject the null hypothesis.
How to interpret p-value?
To interpret the p-value, you need to compare it to a chosen significance level . During
hypothesis testing, we assume a significance level (α), generally 5% (α = 0.05). It is the
probability of rejecting the null hypothesis when it is true. It is observed that lower the p-
value, higher is the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis. When:
• p ≤ (α = 0.05) : Reject the null hypothesis. There is sufficient evidence to conclude
that the observed effect or relationship is statistically significant, meaning it is
unlikely to have occurred by chance alone.
• p > (α = 0.05) : reject alternate hypothesis (or accept null hypothesis). The observed
effect or relationship does not provide enough evidence to reject the null hypothesis.
This does not necessarily mean there is no effect; it simply means the sample data
does not provide strong enough evidence to rule out the possibility that the effect is
due to chance.
In case the significance level is not specified, consider the below general inferences while
interpreting your results.
• If p > .10: not significant
• If p ≤ .10: slightly significant
• If p ≤ .05: significant
• If p ≤ .001: highly significant
Graphically, the p-value is located at the tails of any confidence interval. [As shown in fig 1]
Fig 1: Graphical Representation
What influences p-value?
The p-value in hypothesis testing is influenced by several factors:
1. Sample Size: Larger sample sizes tend to yield smaller p-values, increasing the
likelihood of detecting significant effects.
2. Effect Size: A larger effect size results in smaller p-values, making it easier to detect a
significant relationship.
3. Variability in the Data: Greater variability often leads to larger p-values, making it
harder to identify significant effects.
4. Significance Level: A lower chosen significance level increases the threshold for
considering p-values as significant.
5. Choice of Test: Different statistical tests may yield different p-values for the same
data.
6. Assumptions of the Test: Violations of test assumptions can impact p-values.
Understanding these factors is crucial for interpreting p-values accurately and making
informed decisions in hypothesis testing.
Significance of P-value
• The p-value provides a quantitative measure of the strength of the evidence against
the null hypothesis.
• Decision-Making in Hypothesis Testing
• P-value serves as a guide for interpreting the results of a statistical test. A small p-
value suggests that the observed effect or relationship is statistically significant, but it
does not necessarily mean that it is practically or clinically meaningful.
Limitations of P-value
• The p-value is not a direct measure of the effect size, which represents the
magnitude of the observed relationship or difference between variables. A small p-
value does not necessarily mean that the effect size is large or practically meaningful.
• Influenced by Various Factors
The p-value is a crucial concept in statistical hypothesis testing, serving as a guide for making
decisions about the significance of the observed relationship or effect between variables.
