1

Definition of Drought

Neil A. Coles 1.1 Introduction .......................................................................................... 1

University of Leeds
and 1.2 Defining Drought ................................................................................. 1
University of Western 1.3 Drought and Rainfall Classification ..................................................4
Australia 1.4 Drought by Design ...............................................................................5
Saeid Eslamian 1.5 Summary and Conclusions .................................................................8
Isfahan University Authors ..............................................................................................................8
of Technology References ..........................................................................................................9

Abstract The word drought in its definitive sense is derived from the archaic English and Scottish
form of the word “drouth” that is an archaic or dialectal word for thirst. In more recent times, it
has been used as a collective term to refer to an acute water shortage rather than thirst specifically.
However, the term “drought” can be applied to the lack or scarcity of anything or a prolonged
absence of something specified, but historically it has been used to signify a prolonged period of
dryness or low rainfall.
This chapter only discusses the use of the term drought as it relates to water shortages and how
it is applied in various instances from forecasting to design.

1.1 
Introduction
Drought is a natural hazard and is one of the least understood and manageable phenomena impacting
the world today [30]. Vulnerability to drought is increasing as the global climate varies, human popula-
tion expands, water resources come under increasing pressure for alternate uses, and people use water in
so many different ways and apply alternate demands relative to human consumption (including drink-
ing water and sanitation), industrial uses, agricultural production systems, and environmental require-
ments such that there is no universal definition of drought [2,11,30].

1.2 
Defining Drought
Droughts are a normal part of climate variability and are generally recognized around the world as a lack of
rainfall; however, this is not the only description that can be applied in defining what a drought is and the effect
it has either locally or regionally. The following definitions of drought were first introduced in Britain in 1887:
• Absolute droughts—Periods of more than 14 consecutive days absolutely without rain
• Partial droughts—Periods of more than 28 consecutive days, the aggregate rainfall of which does
not exceed 0.01 in. per diem
• Engineers’ droughts—Periods of three or more consecutive months, the aggregate rainfall of which
does not exceed half the average [21]
The term “dry spell” in reference to drought was also first used in British rainfall records in 1919 [1].

1
2 Handbook of Drought and Water Scarcity

The following dictionary or conceptual definitions have been used to define a “drought”:
Continuous dry weather [24]
Extreme dryness due to lack of rain [26]
A prolonged period of scanty rainfall [25]
Therefore, in the most general sense, a drought is defined as a deficiency of precipitation over an
extended period of time—(for agricultural production—usually a season or more), resulting in a
water shortage for some activity, industry group, community, or environmental sector [15]. This
period of time can be prolonged and may be an abnormally dry period when the water availability
is insufficient to satisfy expected (or normal) demand and could also be described as an extended
period—a season, a year, or several years—of deficient rainfall relative to the statistical multiyear
mean for a region [11].
Droughts, as such, are not purely a physical phenomenon that is defined strictly in terms of cli-
mate variability. A drought, therefore, is not simply classified as low rainfall; if it was, most of the
arid and semiarid regions of the world (e.g., inland Australia, southwestern [SW] United States,
Sahel, and Gobi), for instance, would be in almost perpetual drought [2]. In essence, drought can
thus be determined by the balance between water supply and demand. The effect of a drought is
governed by the interplay between a natural event (less precipitation or water inputs than expected)
and the demand placed on the water supply, with human activities normally exacerbating the impact
of a drought [15].
Beyond the conceptual definition of drought, the extent and severity of drought can be monitored in
several ways and is normally dependent on the impact a drought has on a specific activity or phenom-
enon. This is often referred to as the operational definition of a drought and is monitored for example
in terms of
• Rainfall deficiencies
• The impact on primary industries, such as agricultural production
• Groundwater recharge and streamflow
• Social expectations, economics, and perceptions of water availability
As a result, drought has come to be defined in both conceptual and operational terms such that six general
classes of drought have been previously recognized [21,28,30] as follows:
• Meteorological drought—Defined only in terms of precipitation deficiencies, in absolute amounts,
for a given period
• Climatological drought—Defined in terms of precipitation deficiencies, in percentages of normal
values
• Atmospheric drought—Defined not only in terms of precipitation deficiencies but possibly in
terms of temperature, humidity, or wind speed
• Agricultural drought—Defined principally in terms of soil moisture and plant behavior*
• Hydrological drought—Defined in terms of reduction in streamflow, reduction in lake or reservoir
storage, and the lowering of groundwater levels [21]
• Water management drought—Defined in terms of water supply shortages caused by the failure of
water management practices or facilities, such as an integrated water supply system and surface
or subsurface storage, to bridge normal or abnormal dry periods and equalize the water supply
throughout the year [14]
As can be deduced from the descriptions earlier, a drought can only be described fully by the depiction
of its numerous climatic, hydrologic, and operational elements [31]. Following an extensive research and

* Includes green drought—defined as a period of limited rainfall resulting in new but insubstantial plant growth [23].
Definition of Drought 3

review [29], the six classifications suggested earlier were further revised into four basic approaches to
measuring drought:
• Meteorological drought—A period of abnormally dry weather sufficiently prolonged for the lack of
water to cause serious hydrologic imbalance in the affected area [13]
• Agricultural drought—A climatic excursion involving a shortage of precipitation sufficient to
adversely affect crop production* or range production [20]
• Hydrological drought—A period of below average water content in streams, reservoirs, groundwa-
ter aquifers, lakes, and soils [32]
• Socioeconomic and environmental drought—A period when the declining water supply relative to
demand affects human activities and ecosystem function to the point of failure and may be asso-
ciated with elements of meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural drought [29]. See Figure 1.1.
The first three definitions earlier deal with ways to measure drought and the fourth deals with drought
in terms of the impact on supply and demand [12] with the fourth term being a variation on a water

Natural climate variability

Meteorological drought

Agricultural drought

Hydrological drought
Increased
impact
over time

Environmental Economic
impact impact

Social impacts

Water management drought

FIGURE 1.1 Types of drought and impacts. Simplified flow diagram illustrating the progression of drought as
a result of natural climate variability, and the relationship between economic, social and environmental impacts.
An additional component associated with water management drought has been linked to impacts and may be
considered both as one of the causes and one of the options for mitigation. Development and extent of the impacts
of drought are normally independent of the time scale as these may occur at variable times within a drought cycle.
(Adapted from flow diagram developed by the Drought basics—What is drought? Webpage, NDCM, Lincoln, NE,
[Link] accessed October 12, 2014; [Link]
edu/whatis/[Link].)

* This would also include a green drought in which rainfall received results in germination but insufficient crop growth or
causing crop failure in the longer term due to reduced rainfall.
4 Handbook of Drought and Water Scarcity

management drought [14] and the engineers’ drought [22]. In such cases, socioeconomic definitions of
drought have evolved to provide a link between the supply and demand of an economic good with ele-
ments of meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural drought. This proposition differs from the other
types of drought in that it is dependent on the supply chain, while this supply chain is also climate or
weather dependent. Therefore, many of the economic goods, such as water, forage, food grains, fish, and
hydroelectric power, are affected. Thus, owing to the natural variability of climate, the availability of
water will determine the relative supply and demand of goods [19,29,30].
All droughts begin as a natural variation in climate that results in a decline in the delivery of rainfall
over a particular time frame relevant to the climatology* of the area (or region) affected. The initial
declines or deficiencies are classed as a meteorological drought. As the length of the deficiency period
increases, often in association with above-average temperatures, high winds, and low relative humidity,
significant impacts are felt in the agricultural and hydrological systems (Figure 1.1). Extended periods
of rainfall deficiency lead to agricultural droughts, particularly if the soil moisture deficits are already
high prior to the growing season or rainfall expected during the growing season is diminished, such
that crop growth and development is suppressed [16].
These extended droughts may also be punctuated by periods when stored water or river flows used for
irrigation are restricted or unavailable for allocation, defined as hydrological droughts. Socioeconomic
droughts occur when the demand for an economic good exceeds the supply as a result of a weather-
related shortfall in water supply. The drought may result in significantly reduced hydroelectric power
production because power plants are dependent on streamflow rather than storage for power generation
and are by default linked to hydrological droughts. The demand for economic goods is increasing as a
result of population growth and economic development creating increasing pressure on water resources
to deliver goods, energy, food, and water for human consumption, with additional negative impacts
extended to the environment and ecosystem function as water availability declines. When both supply
and demand increase, the critical factor is their relative rate of change [19].
Droughts therefore are naturally occurring phenomena, with the intensity and severity often
­influenced by local topographic, water demand, and climatological characteristics, and can end almost
as quickly as they begin if moisture or water deficits are small [16]. Regional droughts may be driven
by global phenomena such as droughts in eastern Australia, which are influenced by the Southern
Oscillation Index, which is driven by variations in the surface temperature of the Pacific Ocean [3].
This level of influence provides opportunities for prediction or indicative tools and some limited prepa-
rations but to date are not considered as absolute measures of the length and severity of drought that
may develop with each climate zone influenced by very different large-scale, predominant weather and
climate patterns [2].
Due to this diversity of definition, impact assessment, and management, clarity has been sought by
developing various indices in which the duration and intensity of drought could be categorized. Once
again this approach has spawned an increasing number of indices to enable the context and diversity of
impacts to be assessed or described. These diverse drought types impact different sectors, and in many
instances the impacts associated with each overlap both temporally and spatially [12].

1.3 
Drought and Rainfall Classification
In the preceding section, drought has been described as representing a decline in precipitation over
a set time period relative to normal or average expectations or demands. This relationship has been
used by various meteorological bureaus and government agencies to classify drought and their severity
and extent, on the basis of existing rainfall records, and how much the decline in rainfall represents a
deficiency based on the known climatological records. To do this, drought indices were developed as a

* This is relevant as a 14-day period of no rain may present as an absolute drought in the United Kingdom, whereas the
same dry period in semiarid regions such as Australia would be considered normal.
Definition of Drought 5

TABLE 1.1 Rainfall Deficiency Definitions Used by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Lowest on record Lowest since at least 1900 when the data analyzed begin
Severe deficiency Rainfalls in the lowest 5% of historical totals
Serious deficiency Rainfalls in the lowest 10% of historical totals, but not the lowest 5%
Very much below average Rainfalls in the lowest 10% of historical totals
Below average Rainfalls in the lowest 30% of historical totals, but not the lowest 10%
Average Rainfalls in the middle 40% of historical totals
Above average Rainfalls in the highest 30% of historical totals, but not the highest 10%
Very much above average Rainfalls in the highest 10% of historical totals
Source: Bureau of Meteorology, Australia (BoM), 2015. Drought. [Link]
drought/#tabs=About-drought, accessed July 1, 2015.

way of expressing drought information in a manner that also gives the user more information than just
how the current situation compares to a historical average and to identify the degree of water shortage
associated with the dry event (i.e., duration and intensity) [12]. An indicator is a measure of a variable,
be it meteorological, hydrological, agricultural, or socioeconomic in origin, that provides an indication
of potential drought-related stress or deficiency, whereas an index is a method of deriving “value-added”
information related to drought through the comparison of existing conditions to historical data. Thus,
indices attempt to quantify drought and its magnitude or severity [12].
The Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) in Australia employs a deficiency classification index, as a series of
definitions shown in Table 1.1. This system employs a relatively simple process of drought determination
by comparing actual precipitation to the long-term average or mean (in Australia’s case since 1900 when
records began). The severity is classified on the basis of recorded rainfall against expected averages for a
particular region over a selected time frame, with categories ranging from the lowest on record to one
very much above average. These data are provided by the BoM as both a forecasting and an assessment
tool providing farmers, pastoralists, and governments with data on which to make seasonal, operational,
and policy decisions. A map providing current drought and severity conditions in Australia for 29 months
between October 2012 and June 2015 is given in Figure 1.2.
The U.S. National Weather Service (operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration) [18] also employs a similar definition system for rating the severity of drought with
an example for the SW United States given in Figure 1.3. The U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) provides
a general summary of current drought conditions, with the USDM map color-coded for four levels of
drought intensity. An additional category, “abnormally dry,” is used to show areas that might be moving
toward a drought, as well as those areas that may have recently experienced drought. The dominant type
of drought is also indicated.
Both systems employ definitions of drought based on the severity and extent of the drought within
a given region. These are just two examples of drought definitions and indices that have been used to
relay information concerning drought that can be used for alternate purposes to assist in managing the
effects of drought and the impacts on the activities undertaken in these regions. While drought indices
are important for contextualizing drought, they will not be described further within this chapter, as
they are dealt with elsewhere in this volume.

1.4 
Drought by Design
While drought is a natural phenomenon, it represents a hazard to be managed due to the impact on
human activities, particularly the availability of water for human consumption, food, and energy
­production. While the natural variability in rainfall delivery or the increased variance due to climate
change, is difficult to manage, many water supplies for these activities can be designed to “fail grace-
fully,” that is, within a certain period of time of relative rainfall or water availability such that the
6 Handbook of Drought and Water Scarcity

Rainfall percentile ranking

10 Serious
Australian Government
deficiency
Bureau of 5
Severe
Meteorology deficiency
Lowest on
record

Rainfall deficiencies: 29 months

1 October 2012 to 28 February 2015
Distribution based on gridded data
Product of the National Climate Centre

FIGURE 1.2 Map showing rainfall deficiencies based on severity classification system used by the Australian
Bureau of Meteorology [3]. (From Bureau of Meteorology, Australian Government, Australia (BoM), 2015, http://
[Link]/climate/drought/, accessed July 01, 2015.)

July 14, 2015

(Released Thursday, July 16, 2015)
Valid 8 a.m. EDT
U.S. Drought Monitor Drought Conditions (Percent Area)
West None D0–D4D1–D4D2–D4D3–D4 D4

Current 25.49 74.51 61.37 43.76 18.87 7.17

Last Week
7/72015 22.40 77.60 61.14 43.04 18.87 7.26
3 Months Ago
4/14/2015 26.55 73.45 61.00 37.91 17.04 7.63
Start of
Calendar Year 34.76 65.24 54.48 33.50 18.68 5.40
12/30/2014
Start of
Water Year 31.48 68.52 55.57 35.65 19.95 8.90
9/30/2014
One Year Ago
7/15/2014 31.51 68.49 60.35 46.65 23.56 6.02

Intensity:
D0 Abnormally Dry D3 Extreme Drought
D1 Moderate Drought D4 Exceptional Drought
D2 Severe Drought

The Drought Monitor focuses on broad-scale conditions.

Local conditions may vary. See accompanying text summary
for forecast statements.
Author:
David Simeral
Western Regional Climate Center

[Link]

FIGURE 1.3 Map showing rainfall deficiencies in south western United States based on a severity classification
system used by U.S. Drought Monitor [17]. (From U.S. Drought Monitor Website, 2015, [Link]
edu/dm/[Link], accessed July 18, 2015.)
Definition of Drought 7

potential reliability of a supply is known, and the relative risk of failure due to drought is factored into
the design, creating what was first termed an “engineer’s drought” in 1887 [22]. This is particularly
important for agricultural (livestock) and small community (or domestic) water supplies.
For example, in the dryland agricultural areas of Western Australia, seasonal fluctuations in rainfall
necessitate the design of reliable on-farm water supplies so that the farming enterprises can continue
to function in years with low rainfall or drought. This region has often been severely impacted by water
shortages in times of extended dry periods [9], and these have been exacerbated in recent years due
to changes in climate, an associated decline in annual rainfall, and/or a variation in rainfall delivery
­patterns [5].
Suitably designed storages such as dams, raintanks, and soaks or adequately defined and equipped
bores are required to ensure water supply availability to satisfy demand created from operational activi-
ties (e.g., livestock watering, crop spraying) and domestic use during periods of low rainfall. To ensure
reliability, two measures are required: What is the expected demand? What is the capacity of the stor-
ages? The links between these two measures are (1) capacity to control demand and (2) cost of maintain-
ing reliability of supply [8].
The cost of designing and maintaining a reliable supply is dependent on the acceptable level of risk a
landholder is willing to take, based upon the losses incurred if the supplies fail versus the cost of meet-
ing long-term demand under low rainfall conditions [8]. To understand the threat posed by droughts to
a water supply, appropriate design criteria are required. Artificial catchments and storage combinations
impact both the efficiency and cost of these systems; so these combinations are generally determined to
satisfy a targeted demand reliability relative to the known rainfall patterns and expected periods of low
rainfall or drought [6].
Managing droughts (and periods of low rainfall) requires defining the reliability of the water supply
relative to the climatic conditions and expected demand. Reliability is a term used to express how often
you are prepared to accept the failure of a system, in this case a water supply. This term, reliability or rate
of failure, is determined by balancing the costs associated with the development to a certain capacity
against the negative costs of the system failure. This includes both the rate (i.e., number of times) and
the length of time that a system remains inactive owing to drought [7].
Available water supply can be calculated by a water balance simulation based on catchment size,
dam volume, rainfall, water demand, and evaporation losses, with the resultant water balance simula-
tion applied to estimate the reliability. The water balance simulation relies on the relationship between
the modeling time interval (i.e., daily, weekly, or monthly calculation intervals), the available water
supply amount (volume-based estimation), and the time period of water supply failure (period-based
estimation) as shown in Figure 1.4 [6,10]. The level of reliability is also determined by the relative cost
and impact that supply failure (or drought) will have on the operation or activity for which the water is
being used. Obviously if the supply is a community drinking water supply, the cost of investment and
reliability will be higher than that for a livestock water supply [9].
Reliability is usually expressed in terms of a percentage or as a failure rate in a given number of years
(i.e., 1 in 10 yr or 90%). This system would be expected to fail once in 10 years in the long term; however
it is possible for such a system to fail more than 1 year in succession, where two or three one-year in
ten (or greater) events occur together [7]. The level of designed reliability required is determined by
how often those affected are prepared to pay for the cost of failure. Some landholders may be prepared
to accept a water supply failure rate of one in 5 years, while others may design for one in 20 years.
The more reliable the system is required to be, the more care must be taken with the size, design, and
construction. Consequently, the cost of the system also increases. For systems that have high depen-
dence, like drinking water supplies, the level of success rate and costs will be high.
Based on the previous example, the level of failure or rate of deficiency relative to low rainfall or
drought has been engineered such that the risk associated with failure has been assessed and appropriate
designs have been implemented. This type of drought is defined as engineered or managed in that it can
be relatively climate independent and is related to design, demand, and knowledge of regional rainfall
8 Handbook of Drought and Water Scarcity

Monthly
Lo
w
Hi
gh
Hi
gh

Modeling time interval

Ca
lcu C
lat ost

Weekly
ed
Ri reli
sk ab
ili
ty
Hi
gh
Lo
w
Lo
w
Daily

VE PEd PEw PEm PEa

Definition of reliability

FIGURE 1.4 Relationship between time interval and defined reliability, costs and risks associated with design-
ing reliable water supplies to manage extended dry periods (or droughts). VE, volume-based estimation; PE,
period-based estimation (days, weeks, months, annual). (Adapted from Coles, N.A. and Baek, C.W., Impact of
climate change on the design criteria for rainwater harvesting systems in Western Australia, Proceedings of the 18th
Congress of the Asia and Pacific Division of the International Association for Hydro-Environment Engineering and
Research, Jeju, Korea, August 2012.)

occurrence and climate variability. This is not to suggest that the water supply will not be impacted by
drought but that the effects of moderate meteorological and hydrological droughts can be ameliorated
and the operational risk managed.

1.5 
Summary and Conclusions
Water is the giver of life, and as such its shortage and availability caused by drought affects all life on this
planet, which is attuned in some way to its presence or absence. As can be observed from this discus-
sion, drought is often poorly understood and classified; it is not driven by any particular factor but can
be influenced by local and regional phenomena, and its impacts vary both spatially and temporally and
can impact significantly on human endeavors, agricultural productivity, and environmental functionality.
The impacts of drought are often complex and may persist for considerable time beyond its immediate
cessation and thus make it difficult to prepare for and manage. Continuing research into the weather
phenomena and atmospheric drivers of drought is providing an improved predictive capability, but
drought preparedness and risk management remain challenging aspects in coping with droughts.
Improvements in collecting data, monitoring, and climate modeling have provided opportunities to
deliver better water resources design and river management scenarios to assist with the development of
engineering options to manage droughts, but long-term, regionally extensive droughts remain a high
risk, and are inherently difficult event to manage. While this chapter has provided an introduction to
drought, in terms of its definition and complexity, subsequent chapters in this text explore the impacts,
assessment, monitoring, and management of droughts.

Authors
Neil Coles is a senior Cheney fellow at the University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom, and research
consulting professor at the Institute of Agriculture, University of Western Australia (UWA), Perth,
Australia. He has 30 years of research and practical experience in water resources, mining, and agricultural
Definition of Drought 9

industries. Prior to his appointment at UWA, Professor Coles was employed by the WA Department of
Agriculture as a senior research scientist, conducting, directing, and extending research on land and
water resource management in the dryland agricultural areas in southwestern Australia. He continued
in this post until 2009 when he was appointed as the director for the Centre for Ecohydrology, UWA,
as an internationally recognized leader in ecohydrology research with industry applications. As a dedi-
cated research analyst and administrator, he has continued to foster the interdisciplinary approach to
improving water resources, agricultural production and protecting and understanding ecosystems.
He is committed to achieving better outcomes for the myriad of environments on this unique and
singular planet.

Saeid Eslamian is a full professor of hydrology and water resources engineering in the Department of
Water Engineering at Isfahan University of Technology, Iran, where he has been since 1995. He received
his PhD from the University of New South Wales, Australia, under the supervision of Professor David
Pilgrim. His research focuses mainly on water resources planning and management and statistical and
environmental hydrology in a changing climate. Formerly, he was a visiting professor at Princeton
University, New Jersey, and the University of ETH Zurich, Switzerland. On the research side, he has
started a research partnership from 2014 with McGill University, Canada. He has contributed to more
than 500 publications in journals and books or as technical reports. He is the founder and chief editor
of both International Journal of Hydrology Science and Technology (Scopus, Inderscience) and Journal of
Flood Engineering. Currently, he has been the author of more than 100 book chapters and books. Recently,
Professor Eslamian has started the editorship of several handbooks published by Taylor & Francis Group
(CRC Press). A three-volume Handbook of Engineering Hydrology (2014), Urban Water Reuse Handbook
(2015), a three-volume Handbook of Drought and Water Scarcity (2017), and Underground Aqueducts
Handbook (2017) are published ones.

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Definition of Drought 11

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