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Land use dynamics in Karnataka - An economic analysis

Thesis · May 2011

DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.19389.46565

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LAND USE DYNAMICS IN KARNATAKA – AN
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

Thesis submitted to the

University of Agricultural Sciences, Dharwad
in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the
Degree of

MASTER OF SCIENCE (AGRICULTURE)

IN

AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS

By

SAMAYA GAIRHE

DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS

COLLEGE OF AGRICULTURE, DHARWAD
UNIVERSITY OF AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES,
DHARWAD – 580 005

MAY, 2011
 ADVISORY COMMITTEE

DHARWAD
MAY, 2011 (G.N. KULKARNI)
MAJOR ADVISOR

Approved by :

Chairman: _________________________
(G.N. KULKARNI)

Members : 1. _______________________
(H. BASAVARAJA)

2. _______________________
(S.B. MAHAJANASHETTI)

3. _______________________
(JAYASHREE A. HANDIGOL)

4. _______________________
(BALACHANDRA K. NAIK)

5. _______________________
(RAMESH BABU)
 CONTENTS
Sl. No. Chapter Particulars
CERTIFICATE
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
LIST OF TABLES
LIST OF FIGURES
1. INTRODUCTION
2. REVIEW OF LITERATURE
2.1 Temporal changes in land use pattern
2.2 Dynamics of land use pattern
2.3 Instability of land use pattern
2.4 Causes for changes in land use pattern
2.5 Impact of land use on cropping intensity
2.6 Ecological implications
3. METHODOLOGY
3.1 Description of the study area
3.2 Selection of the study area and data base
3.3 Analytical tools and techniques
3.4 Terminologies used in the study
4. RESULTS
4.1 Temporal changes in land use pattern in Karnataka
4.2 Dynamics of land use pattern in Karnataka
4.3 Instability of land use pattern
4.4 Causes for temporal changes in land use pattern
4.5 Impact of changes in land use pattern on cropping intensity
4.6 Factor influencing cropping intensity
4.7 Ecological implications of land use dynamics in Karnataka
5. DISCUSSION
5.1 Temporal changes in land use pattern in Karnataka
5.2 Dynamics of land use pattern in Karnataka
5.3 Instability of land use pattern
5.4 Causes for temporal changes in land use pattern
5.5 Impact of changes in land use pattern on cropping intensity
5.6 Factor influencing cropping intensity
5.7 Ecological implications of land use dynamics in Karnataka
6. SUMMARY AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS
REFERENCES
 LIST OF TABLES

Table No. Title

3.1 General features of Karnataka

3.2 Land use pattern in Karnataka

3.3 Area under major crops in Karnataka

3.4 Net area irrigated by different sources of irrigation in Karnataka

4.1 Share of different land use categories to total reported area in

Karnataka

4.2 Average area and changes in land use pattern in Karnataka

4.3 Compound Growth Rates of various land use categories in

Karnataka

4.4 Transitional probability matrix for land use categories in Karnataka

for Period-I (1980-81 to 1994-95)

4.5 Transitional probability matrix for land use categories in Karnataka

for Period-II (1995-96 to 2007-08)

4.6 Projected shares of land use categories in Karnataka

4.7 Actual and estimated proportion of land use categories in Karnataka

during Period-I (1981-82 to 1994-95)

4.8 Actual and estimated proportion of land use categories in Karnataka

during Period-II (1995-96 to 2007-08)

4.9 Instability index of different land use categories in Karnataka

4.10 Causes for the temporal changes in land use pattern in Karnataka

4.11 Impact of changes in land use pattern on cropping intensity

4.12 Factor influencing cropping intensity

4.13 Intra-sectoral dynamics of land use in Karnataka

4.14 Budgeting of inter-sectoral land-use shifts in Karnataka

 LIST OF FIGURES

Figure
Title
No.

1. Map showing the study area

2. Flow chart of dynamics of land use changes

3. Changes in the land use pattern in Karnataka

4. Actual and estimated proportion of forest in Karnataka

5. Actual and estimated proportion of area not available for cultivation

in Karnataka

6. Actual and estimated proportion of other uncultivated land

excluding fallow in Karnataka

7. Actual and estimated proportion of fallow land in Karnataka

8. Actual and estimated proportion of net sown area in Karnataka

9. Instability index for different land use categories

10. Inter-sectoral land-use shifts in Karnataka

 1. INTRODUCTION
Land is a basic input for agriculture and it occupies an important position among all
the resources required for a modern economy (Ramasamy et al., 2005). Like any other
resource, it also has two dimensions viz., quality and quantity; both of these are crucial
components and are under serious threat due to their intensive and extensive use for
agricultural and non-agricultural purposes. The way people handle and use land resource is
decisive for their social and economic well-being as well as for the sustainability of land
resources.
Land use is any kind of permanent or cyclic human intervention to satisfy human
needs, either material or spiritual or both from the complex of natural and artificial resource,
which together are called “land” (Vink, 1975).
Land is a finite natural national resource, the efficient management of which is vital
for economic growth and development of the country. Land utilization or land use is basically
and virtually an act played by the inhabitants of an area to meet their requirements. The land
utilization is usually demand driven and is an adjustment or allocation of the finite land
resource under agricultural and non-agricultural sectors.
The way and the extent to which the land is utilized set the pace of a country’s
economic development. Land is important not only for producing foodstuffs-cereals, pulses
and other crops for consumption but also to generate surpluses to meet increasing demands
of rising population and developing industrial sector for laying down the transport network,
communication, construction of dwellings and public institutions but also for planning its
utilization for economic development and sustainable land use options are kept as a priority
for ecological reasons.
The term land use pattern denotes the proportion of area under various types of uses
for example, the area actually cultivated, forest, fallow land, pasture land and area under
settlements and so on. The land use pattern in an area depends upon the physical,
environmental factors and pressure of population on land.
Land use pattern is a process which assigns each tract of land in an area to its proper
class in a system of classes. The classes in the system are defined in terms of the qualities or
characteristics with which the classification is concerned. The land use pattern of a country at
any particular time is determined by the physical, economic and institutional framework taken
together. In other words, the existing land use pattern at any point of time has been evolved
as a result of the action and interaction of various factors such as the physical characteristics
of land, the institutional framework, the structure of other resources such as capital, labour
etc., available land and the location of the region in relation to other aspects of economic
development.
The rapid pace of economic development along with population growth, urbanization
and industrialization exerted tremendous pressure on the limited natural resource base of a
country. This poses a serious challenge to researchers and policy makers to strike a balance
in the use of natural resources, keeping in mind the need for their conservation of sustainable
development and food and livelihood security. Land, being one of the most basic natural
resource, has always been the subject matter of debate regarding its effective utilization. The
pressure exerted by the growing economy on land and other natural resources has intensified
in the recent years and will further intensify in the future in the face of the burgeoning
population and sustained demand for the conservation of agricultural lands to non-agricultural
uses.
Dynamics of land use is a complex phenomenon which is affected by several socio-
economic, agro-climatic and ecological variables. Both climatic and institutional factors are
crucial in determining land use pattern. The extent of land use is also influenced by
technological changes over a period of time. The technological changes in agriculture ignited
intensive cultivation resulting in conversion of marginal lands into productive agricultural lands
through capital intensive cultivation.
 Nadkarni and Deshpande (1979) highlight the importance of institutional factors
leading to under-utilization of agricultural lands especially when people employed in urban
areas keep lands idle for using it after retirement or for speculative purposes. Their study also
revealed that an increase in the size of operational holdings has a positive impact on current
fallows. An analysis of land use pattern and the extent of under-utilization of land in Andhra
Pradesh revealed that land use pattern was mainly influenced by the extent of adoption of
modern technology (Reddy, 1991). However, this is not applicable to drought-prone regions
where technological diffusion is highly limited. Another study concludes that the land use
pattern is influenced by the demand for land for cultivation of crops, forest and fodder to meet
the food requirements of the people and livestock and the raw material requirement of the
industries using agricultural products as raw materials (Giri, 1966). Pandey and Tewari (1987)
analysed the dynamics of land use and estimated the shift in land use with the help of simple
identity of linearly additive land use changes. A state-level analysis of trends and dynamics of
annual shift in land use in different states of the country (Sharma and Pandey, 1992) revealed
that there was a general declining trend in area under permanent pastures, grazing land and
barren and uncultivable land. The land requirement for non-agricultural uses was met from
the area under cultivable wastes. Current and other fallow land registered a positive growth in
most of the states. Inter-sectoral land budgeting indicated a shift in area from both desirable
and undesirable ecological sectors towards agricultural and non-agricultural sectors.
Subramanian et al. (1994) estimated the demand for additional land in Tamil Nadu for
non-agricultural purposes at around 4.66 lakh ha during the year 2010. Ramasamy et al.,
(2005) in their study revealed that there was a significant decline in the area under cultivable
wastes and barren and uncultivable lands while, there was a sharp increase in the land put to
non-agricultural uses in Tamil Nadu. Wani et al. (2009) study revealed that land use shift has
been occurring from the desirable ecology towards undesirable ecology, agricultural and non-
agricultural sectors. The shift of land from the agricultural sector to undesirable ecology may
have serious implications towards agricultural growth and requires immediate check. Gupta
and Sharma (2010) found a sharp increase in the land put to non-agricultural uses while,
decrease in cultivable wastes and net sown area in Himachal Pradesh.
Bardhan and Tewari (2010) study revealed that at the aggregate country level, there
has been substantial land shifts from the undesirable ecology i.e., barren and uncultivable
land thereby mitigating the pressure for diversion of agricultural land to meet the growing
needs of the non-agricultural sector. Moreover, the lands released from undesirable ecology
sector are going to the non-agricultural sector and to a smaller extent to the desirable
ecological sector, mainly forests. In west Bengal, Jammu and Kashmir, Karnataka and Kerala,
lands shifts have occurred from all other sectors to the non-agricultural sector.
Till 1949-50, the land area in India was classified into five broad categories. Those
categories were:
1. Forests
2. Area not available for cultivation
3. Other uncultivated land, excluding the current fallows
4. Area under current fallows, and
5. Net area sown.
This five-fold classification was however a very broad outline of land uses in the
country and was not found adequate enough to meet the needs of agricultural planning in the
country. The states were also finding it difficult to present comparable data according to this
classification owing to the lack of uniformity in the definition and scope of classification
covered by these five broad categories.
To remove the non-comparability and to break up the broad categories into smaller
constituents for better comprehension, the Technical Committee on Co-ordination of
Agricultural Statistics set up in 1948 by the Ministry of Food and Agriculture recommended
the following nine fold land use classification replacing the old five-fold classification and it
also recommended standard concepts and definitions for all the states to follow.
The nine-fold land use classification is as follows:
1) Area under forests
2) Barren and uncultivable lands
3) Land put to non-agricultural uses
4) Permanent pastures and other grazing lands
5) Cultivable wastes
6) Miscellaneous tree crops and groves not included in the net area sown
7) Current fallows
8) Fallows other than current fallow and
9) Net area sown
The present pattern of classification is considered as static harmony and adjustment with the
other main characteristics of the economy of the region.

Land use statistics of Karnataka

The reported area of the state is 1,90,49,836 hectares. In 1980-81 the forest area
was 15.92 per of the total area. Barren and uncultivable land and land put to non-agricultural
uses were 4.43 and 5.60 per cent respectively. The area under permanent pastures and other
grazing lands, cultivable wastes and miscellaneous tree crops and groves were 7.07, 2.64
and 1.60 per cent respectively. Current fallows accounted 7.66 per cent while, fallows other
than current fallow accounted 2.93 per cent. The net area sown was 51.96 per cent of the
total area. As against this, during 2007-08 the forest area share was 16.13 per cent. Barren
and uncultivable land and land put to non-agriculture uses accounted 4.14 and 7.19 per cent
respectively. The area under permanent pastures and other grazing land, cultivable wastes
and miscellaneous tree crops and groves accounted 4.88, 2.18 and 1.52 per cent,
respectively of the total area. Current fallows accounted 6.62 per cent while, fallows other
than current fallow accounted 2.65 per cent. The net area sown increased and was 54.69 per
cent of the total area.

Importance of the land use studies

Land is the most important resource in any production system and constrained by its
limited supply. The availability of land and all its resources decides the development of the
economy in any country or region. From the available land statistics, it appears to be rare and
difficult prospects to expect a significant and substantial horizontal increase in the area under
different uses. Owing to an upsurge in the growth rate of population and multiplicity of human
wants, the assessment of physical resources of land and its utilization pattern has assumed
paramount importance in all types of economics. Hence, this scarce non-renewable natural
resource should be used judiciously through proper management.
Land use studies therefore are of importance for the assessment of resource base of
any region under evaluation and for its rational use, conservation and management view point
in the long run. In the dynamic context, keeping in view the natural endowments and the
recent advances in technologies in various fields of economic importance, the overall
interests of the country may dictate certain modification or a change in the existing land use
pattern of a region. This would also enable the policy makers to identify long term perspective
of land use dynamics. A close study of the present land use pattern and the trends during
recent years will help to suggest the scope for its planned shifts in the pattern. A scientific
study of land use pattern is important for the formulation of appropriate land use options and
agricultural development policies. The study of land use dynamics has a greater implication in
the context of its use for agricultural production especially when agriculture forms a basic and
primary sector of production. The investigations reveal the direction and extent of its use and
thereby guide the policy makers to make more advantageous sustainable long term policy
options more particularly towards agricultural uses. Hence, keepings this views the present
study is undertaken with the following specific objectives.
 1. To analyze temporal changes in land use pattern in Karnataka
2. To find out the causes for temporal changes in land use pattern
3. To study the impact of changes in land use pattern on cropping intensity
4. To analyze the ecological implications of land use dynamics in Karnataka

Presentation of the study

The study is presented under the following chapters.
Introduction: In the introductory chapter, the nature and importance of research problem and
specific objectives of the study have been depicted.
Review of Literature: It deals with the review of the relevant past studies related to the specific
objectives of the present study.
Methodology : This chapter gives an overview of the study area, the nature and sources from
where relevant data have been collected, the analytical tools employed for evaluating
objectives of the study for meaningful conclusions and definitions of various concepts used in
the study.
Results: The results of the study and their analysis have been presented in this chapter in the
form of tables.
Discussion: It emphasizes on interpretation of the results and attempts to establish
relationships between certain variables and their outcomes.
Summary and Policy Implications: Brief summary of the main findings of the study along with
policy implications drawn from the findings have been presented.
References: The list of the referred books and journals are presented in this section.
 2. REVIEW OF LITERATURE
A review of past research helps in identifying the conceptual and methodological
issues relevant to the present study. This chapter attempts a brief review of the relevant
research literature that has accumulated on the areas related to this study. Keeping in view
the objectives of the study, the reviews are presented under the following sub-headings.
2.1 Temporal changes in land use pattern
2.2 Dynamics of land use pattern
2.3 Instability of land use pattern
2.4 Causes for changes in land use pattern
2.5 Impact of land use on cropping intensity
2.6 Ecological implications

2.1 Temporal changes in land use pattern

Pandey and Tewari (1987) made an attempt to study the ecological implications of
land use dynamics in Uttar Pradesh from 1967-68 to 1983-84. The study revealed that there
was a steady increase in fallow lands in all the regions even though almost a stable net
cultivated area. The cultivable wastes was also declining consistently, except in the hills.
These changes pointed towards process of the vicious circle in land use dynamics within the
agricultural sector.
Ramanaiah and Reddy (1990) reported that the significance of forest land use in
Andhra Pradesh was second only to agriculture. The rise in percentage of forest land in the
state during the period from 1963-64 to 1978-79 was insignificant. The non-cultivable land in
the state showed a net increase of 1.5 per cent during the study period. The percentage of
cultivable wastes in the state has decreased by 1.8 per cent and the arable land in the state
showed a marginal decline of 0.1 per cent.
Pal and Mruthyunjaya (1990) studied silvipastural system for development of
wastelands of arid areas in Rajasthan from 1970-71 to 1986-87. The compound growth rate
showed that the area under forests, grazing land, cultivable wastelands, gross cropped area
and area sown more than once registered a significant positive growth during the study
period. The growth rate was highest for forests (4.16%) followed by area sown more than
once (4.10%) and the growth rate for barren an uncultivable land was negative and
significant. The findings of the study suggested a land use plan for the development of arid
areas of Rajasthan which envisaged that the proportionate area under crops should decrease
from the existing 44.98 per cent to 33 per cent of total area. The land so-released was to be
utilized for forests, grasslands and fruits.
Singh (1990) reported the land use pattern in the problematic areas of all the five
agro-climatic regions of Uttar Pradesh. The study revealed that the hill region had the highest
area under forest, permanent pastures, grazing land, tree crops and groves, non-cultivable
wastelands and land under non-agricultural uses. The area sown more than once and the
total cropped area, as well as the intensity of cropping have been found to be the highest in
the eastern region and the lowest in the hill region. The study concluded that the slopes of the
hilly areas of Uttar Pradesh could be successfully developed for the plantation of temperate
fruits.
Shrivastava et al. (1991) reported the dynamics of land use and cropping system in
the Tawa Command Area of Hoshangabad district of Madhya Pradesh. The study assessed
the impact of the Tawa irrigation project on cropping pattern and land use in the area during
the pre-project period (1971-73 to 1974-75) and the post project period (1975-76 to 1979-80).
They observed a decline in the forest area as a result of illegal felling of trees, and lack of
alternative sources of fuel for domestic purposes. They also reported that fallow land has
increased immediately after the commissioning of the project and was mainly due to land
shaping programme and unregulated irrigation. However, the fallow land has decreased in
comparison to the period defined as post-project.
 Singh and Kaur (1991) studied the changing pattern of land utilization in Punjab since
the inception of new farm technology in the mid sixties i.e. from 1966-67 to 1987-88. The
study found that the reported area for land utilization remained constant while, the area under
forests, area not available for cultivation and net area sown increased during the period. Due
to intensification of agriculture, gross cropped area and cropping intensity increased. The
results concluded that Punjab agriculture has recorded drastic structural changes in land
utilization since the beginning of the green revolution.
Vaidya and Sikka (1991) conducted the study on land utilization pattern in Himachal
Pradesh using secondary data from 1966-67 to 1986-87. It was observed that there has been
no uniform trend in the changes in the land use classes. The area under forest showed an
increasing trend while that of other categories have shown a declining trend. The projected
land use pattern for the year 2000 on the basis of compound growth rates revealed that the
area under all categories except current fallows would increase.
Sharma and Pandey (1992) reported the dynamics of land use in different states of
India from 1966-67 to 1983-84. The study revealed a general declining trend in the area
under permanent pastures, grazing lands, barren and uncultivable lands. The area under non-
agricultural uses, cultivable wastes and fallow lands showed a positive growth in most of the
states. With regards to area under forest, negative growth rate was observed in the states of
Assam, Bihar, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Tripura. In
Jammu and Kashmir and Orissa showed negative growth rate for area put to non-agricultural
uses. The annual rate of increase in area under non-agricultural uses was very high in
Gujarat, Tamil Nadu, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Karnataka and Madhya
Pradesh. Increasing trend was observed in the area under permanent pasture and grazing
lands in Bihar, Maharashtra, Mizoram and Uttar Pradesh. Similarly, declining trend was
observed in the area under miscellaneous tree crops in Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Haryana,
Kerala, Orissa, Punjab, Tripura and Uttar Pradesh.
Mishra (1994) studied the changing profile of agriculture in Orissa and reported the
change in cropping pattern from 1950-51 to 1990-1991. The results showed that there was a
gradual increase in the proportion of the net area sown at the cost of land under categories
such as other uncultivated land excluding fallow land, cultivable wastes. In addition the results
opined out that there was a gradual fall in the share of area under rice and other cereals
which has been diverted for production of pulses and oilseeds, the proportion of which has
consistently increased.
Nagabhushan (1994) conducted the study on dynamics of land use in Dharwad
district in Karnataka for a period of 21 years from 1970 to 1991. Cluster and compound
growth rate analysis were employed for the study. Study revealed that the growth rates of
area under forests, land put to non-agricultural uses, current fallows, net area sown, total
cropped area and area sown more than once were significant and positive. The study found
that the improvement in the management practices was the main reason for the increase in
area sown more than once. The growth rates of remaining land use categories were
significant and negative.
Negi (1994) reported the agricultural growth in Himachal Pradesh during the period
1972-73 to 1980-81. The study showed that the net area sown remained almost static during
the period while, the area under forest went up from 21 per cent to 27 per cent during the
aforesaid period.
Padmanaban and Chinnadurai (1994) studied the land use pattern in Tamil Nadu for
the period 1960-61 to 1988-89. The study reported that the total cropped area in Tamil Nadu
has declined from 7.32 m. ha to 6.44 m. ha during the period and the area sown more than
once has declined from 1.32 m. ha to 0.90 m. ha during the same period. Over the years, the
total cropped area has been consistently declining, at the same time the area under current
fallows, other fallows and lands under non-agricultural uses has been increasing year after
year.
Pandey and Tewari (1996) investigated the regional agricultural land use pattern for a
period of 1970-71 to 1990-91 and the results revealed that the net sown area at the all India
level, as also in the states of Gujarat, Haryana, Maharashtra, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh is
found to have remained constant during the aforesaid period.
 Only the five states namely, Karnataka, Kerala, Madhya Pradesh, Orissa and Punjab
have shown growth in net area sown. At the country level, both current fallows and other
fallows showed positive growth, while, cultivable wastes has shown negative growth during
the period.
Managoli (1997) studied the land use dimensions in Bijapur district for a period of 21
years from 1971-72 to 1992-93. The study found that there was no change in the forest cover
in almost all the taluks of Bijapur district. The growth rates for area sown more than once and
land put to non-agricultural uses were positive and significant in almost all the taluks.
Goswami et al. (2003) examined the land use dynamics in Mizoram during the period
from 1992-93 to 2000-01 using secondary data. The study revealed that the area under
miscellaneous tree crops and groves and permanent pastures and other grazing lands
achieved a significant high growth rate of 198.77 and 181.41 per cent during the study period.
Area under current fallows was increasing at a significantly high growth rate of 40.90 per cent
during the same period. Contrary to this, fallows other than current fallow showed declining
rate of 3.17 per cent. Area sown more than once also showed a significant high growth rate of
39.46 per cent mainly due to the extension of area under double cropping due to the
development in irrigation facilities.
Prashantkumar (2003) conducted the study on land use pattern in three dry zones of
Northern Karnataka. The results identified that there was a decline in the area under non-
agricultural uses, cultivable wastes, and current fallows land in the case of Zone-1 and in the
area under non-agricultural uses, cultivable wastes and net area sown in Zone-2. There was
a positive growth in barren and uncultivable land, current fallows and other fallows lands in
zone-3.
Goswami and Challa (2004) reported the land use pattern in India for the period
1950-51 to 1997-98. The results showed that forest area has increased to 28.57 million
hectares and the area under non-agricultural uses showed a significant increase by 2.94
million hectares. Furthermore, it was also revealed that the net area sown increased during
the study period.
Sreeja (2004) conducted the study on dynamics of land use pattern in Kollam district
of Kerala. The results indicated that there was a substantial growth in the current fallows,
which was the consequence of year to year rainfall variations. Thus, there was an inverse
relationship between rainfall and current fallows. Barren and uncultivable land, permanent
pastures, land under miscellaneous tree crops and groves and cultivable wastes recorded a
significant negative growth.
Ramasamy et al. (2005) analysed the dynamics of land use pattern with special
reference to fallow lands in Tamil Nadu. The study identified that there was a marginal
increase in forest land from 14 to 16.50 per cent which was mainly due to the afforestation
efforts undertaken by government. Lands such as barren and uncultivable lands, cultivable
wastes, permanent pastures and grazing lands have all shown a declining trend. Their total
share in geographical area of the state has declined from 17 per cent to 7.28 per cent during
the last five decades. Lands diverted for non-agricultural uses increased from 9.80 per cent to
14.73 during the same period. Current fallows hovered around 8 per cent, the share of other
fallows increased from about 5 per cent to 8.50 per cent. The net sown area has almost
remained constant and was around 43 per cent.
Goswami and Challa (2006) studied the land use scenario in Meghalaya for the
period 1987-88 to 1998-99. The results found that area under current fallows increased to
11.61 per cent whereas, the area under other than current fallows declined by 6.74 per cent
during the study period. Net area sown registered an increase of 11.58 per cent during the
same period.
Harish (2006) conducted the study on land use dynamics in Mandya district. The
study concluded that area under fallow, current fallows, cultivable wastes and land under
miscellaneous tree crops showed positive growth at 3.29, 0.68 and 0.70 per cent per annum
respectively. The net area sown registered a significant negative growth of 0.44 per cent per
annum.
 Ramappa and Naidu (2009) studied the land utilization pattern in Andhra Pradesh.
The study noticed that the possibility for extensive agriculture was very limited since the area
under agricultural uses has already reached the maximum level. The area under non-
agricultural uses has increased from time to time and thereby has reduced the size of
cultivable land.
Thirunavukkarasu (2009) studied the land use and cropping pattern following land
reforms in a tribal area of Tamil Nadu from 1989 to 2001. The study showed that the forest
land decreased from 63.71 per cent to 62.61 per cent. On the other hand, net cultivated area
has increased from 24.9 per cent to 30.47 per cent during the study period.
Wani et al. (2009) examined the land use dynamics in Jammu and Kashmir from
1966-67 to 2004-05. Compound growth rates and percentage changes in each class were
estimated. The percentage changes have revealed a marginal decline (0.08 per cent) in the
total reported area. The area under forest has decreased at an annual compound growth rate
of 0.04 per cent. The area under non-agricultural uses showed a substantial increase due to
increasing demand of over 6 per cent land per annum for infrastructural development and
urbanization. The barren and uncultivable land has exhibited an increasing trend of 6.6 per
cent per annum. The land under miscellaneous trees revealed significant declining trend. The
fallow land and cultivable wastes have shown a decline of over 35 per cent and 3 per cent
respectively. The net sown area has shown an increase of about 11 per cent during the study
period.
Bardhan and Tewari (2010) investigated the land use dynamics in India and land
under utilization for the period of 1992-93 to 2005-06. The results witnessed that among all
land use categories, the area under non-agricultural uses registered the highest growth rate
at the aggregate country level. The increasing trend in the non-agricultural sector might
significantly be explained by increasing population, urbanization and industrialization. Current
fallows have remained stagnant during the period while, barren and uncultivable land showed
a declining trend. However, declining trend in cultivable wastelands was enhanced by the
land development and their reclamation for agricultural use. The study concluded that there
have been land use shifts from permanent pastures and grazing land, miscellaneous tree
crops and groves and barren and uncultivable land towards area under non-agricultural uses
and to a smaller extent towards forest.
Gupta and Sharma (2010) studied the dynamics of land utilization in Himachal
Pradesh from 1972-73 to 2003-04. The overall results revealed that the barren land and other
fallows land had the highest growth rate (6.020 and 6.167 per cent per annum respectively)
over the years, whereas, the cultivable wastes land and net area sown observed a decrease
during the entire period. The land put to non-agricultural uses was estimated to be increasing
over three decades. Forest area also increased over the years at the rate of 2.013 per cent,
annually.
Aravind (2010) conducted the study on economics of land use and cropping pattern in
northern transitional zone of Karnataka from (1977-78 to 2006-07). Percentage changes in
the land use pattern between two periods showed that, there was decrease in area under
barren and uncultivable land, cultivable wastes and permanent pastures by 3.09 per cent,
6.51 per cent and 0.17 per cent respectively. The area under current fallows and fallows other
than current fallow exhibited a sharp rise over the time. The growth rates estimated for area
under different land use categories showed a significant positive growth in the area under
forest, land put to non-agricultural uses, permanent pastures, net area sown and total
cropped area in 1977-78 to 1990-91. The land under miscellaneous tree crops and groves
registered a positive and significant growth in 1991-92 to 2006-07. During overall period, land
under miscellaneous tree crops has shown significant positive growth while, area under
permanent pastures and other grazing land has shown significant negative growth.
The above findings revealed that the net sown area at the all India level, as also in
the states of Gujarat, Haryana, Maharashtra, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh is found to have
remained constant during the study period. Only the five states namely, Karnataka, Kerala,
Madhya Pradesh, Orissa and Punjab have shown growth in net area sown. At the country
level, both current fallows and other fallows showed positive growth, while, cultivable wastes
has shown negative growth during the period.
 A study indicated the substantial growth in the current fallows, which was the
consequence of year to year rainfall variations. Thus, there was an inverse relationship
between rainfall and current fallows. Barren and uncultivable land, permanent pastures, land
under miscellaneous tree crops and groves and cultivable wastes have shown a declining
trend. Another study identified a marginal increase in forest land which was mainly due to the
afforestation efforts undertaken by government. Another study reported that a marginal
decline in total reported area and forest area. A study witnessed that among all land use
categories, the area under non-agricultural uses registered the highest growth rate at the
aggregate country level. The increasing trend in the non-agricultural sector might significantly
be explained by increasing population, urbanization and industrialization. The declining trend
in cultivable wastes was enhanced by the land development and their reclamation for
agricultural use. Another research revealed that the barren land and other fallows land had
the highest growth rate over the years, whereas, the cultivable wastes land and net area
sown observed a decreasing trend.

2.2 Dynamics of land use pattern

Sreeja (2004) conducted the study on dynamics of land use pattern in Kollam district
of Kerala by using Markov chain analysis and the results showed that the area under forest,
net area sown, other uncultivated land excluding fallow land and land not available for
cultivation were the most stable land use categories in period-I (1982-83 to 1991-92) and all
the land use categories attained stability in the second period and the probability of retention
of the share was more in period II(1992-93 to 2001-02) when compared to the first period.
Harish (2006) conducted the study on economic appraisal of land use dynamics in
Mandya district from 1980-81 to 2003-04. Markov chain analysis was employed to study the
dynamics of land use pattern and the results elicited that except the area under forest all
other categories have shown stability in the Period-I (1980-81 to 1991-92). However, in
Period-II (1992-93 to 2003-04) the area under forest showed more stability than any other
categories, whereas the probabilities of retention of the share of other categories were less in
Period-II when compared to the first period.
Aravind (2010) conducted the study on economics of land use and cropping pattern in
northern transitional zone of Karnataka from (1977-78 to 2006-07). Changes in land use
pattern was studied by using Markov chain analysis and the results showed that except the
area under land not available for cultivation, all other categories showed stability in the
Period-I (1977-78 to 1991-92). But in Period-II (1992-93 to 2006-07) except the area under
land not available for cultivation and other uncultivated land excluding fallow all other
categories have shown stability in retaining their previous area shares. The probabilities of
retention of the shares of other categories were less in Period-II when compared to Period-I.
The above studies showed that the fallow land and land not available for cultivation were
much fluctuating land use categories.

2.3 Instability of land use pattern

Ramasamy et al. (2005) studied the dynamics of land use pattern with special
reference to fallow lands in Tamil Nadu. Instability index was used to measure the extent of
variability or the absence of stability in time-series data. The study revealed that the instability
index during 1970-2000 was highest for the area under current fallows fallowed by the area
under other fallows land. The decadal instability was also found to be higher for fallow lands
as compared to other categories of land use in all the three decades during the study period.
The highest instability in current fallows was due to the fact that the area under current fallows
showed a very high year to year fluctuation in rainfall as more than 50 per cent of the
cultivated area in Tamil Nadu constitute rainfed lands and this fact was supported by the
continuous reduction in instability in gross irrigated area in the state. The instability in net and
gross cropped area remained almost constant over the last three decades.
Gupta and Sharma (2010) conducted the study on dynamics of land utilization in
Himachal Pradesh from 1972-73 to 2003-04. The instability index during the entire study
period was highest for barren land followed by the area under non-agricultural uses and other
fallows land.
 The decadal instability was highest for other fallow land in period first (1972-81),
cultivable wastes in second period (1981-91) and for barren land in period third (1991-2004)
as compared to other categories of land. The instability was found very less in net sown area
and in the other categories of land there was no specific trend observed.
The above studies reported that the instability index was highest for the area under
current fallows fallowed by the area under fallows other than current fallow. The decadal
instability was also found to be higher for fallow lands as compared to other categories of land
use during the study period. The highest instability in current fallows was due to fluctuation in
year to year rainfall pattern. Another study found highest instability index for barren land
followed by the area under non-agricultural uses and fallows other than current fallow land.
The decadal instability was highest for other fallows in period first, cultivable wastes in period
second and for barren land in period third as compared to other categories of land. The
instability was found very less in net sown area and in the other categories of land there was
no specific trend observed.

2.4 Causes for changes in land use pattern

Rajesh and Ramasamy (1998) studied the extent and determinants of under-utilized
lands in Tamil Nadu. Multiple regressions was used to study the changes in land use and
regressed with area under cereal crops (ha), area under irrigation (ha), etc. The study
revealed that there was a greater scope for extension of area under cultivation, as there exist
a vast area under current fallows, other fallows and cultivable wastes. These lands could be
reclaimed and used for cultivation by applying scientific methods.
Goswami and Challa (2004) reviewed the Indian land use scenario and the study
documented some of the socio-economic factors affecting land use such as population
pressure, income demands-i.e. change in the demand for both product and factor inputs,
prices, tastes and preferences, rural-urban interferences, infrastructure development,
government policy and global market.
Ramasamy et al. (2005) examined the study on dynamics of land use pattern with
special reference to fallow lands in Tamil Nadu from 1960 to 2000 by using multiple linear
regression analysis. The length of road was found to have a negative effect on the extent of
other fallows mainly because, the extension of road facilities in rural areas facilitated better
access to market and provide impetus to agricultural development. Similarly, increase in the
area under irrigation as a percentage of gross cropped area has had a negative impact on the
extent of other fallow lands primarily because the area under other fallow lands will decrease
with increase in the area under assured irrigation sources. The expansion in irrigation
facilitated to reduce the instability in cropped area thus reduced the probability of continuous
fallowing of lands thereby, reduced the area under other fallows. Non-agricultural income of
the farm households, size of the holdings, labour availability, credit availability and extent of
irrigated area in the farm were found to be statistically significant in explaining the changes in
area under fallow lands across farms.
Goswami and Challa (2006) reported the socio-economic factors affecting land use in
India. The study envisaged population pressure and prices of essential commodities were the
most important factors contributing to change in land use pattern. The study made obvious
that high population pressure on cultivable land induced the rural people to bring more land
under cultivation. Similarly, with a constant increase in the prices of essential commodities,
there was a pressure to substitute land from low value output to high value output.
Harish (2006) conducted the study on economic appraisal of land use dynamics in
Mandya district from 1980-81 to 2003-04. Delphi method was employed to know the reasons
for observed changes in land use pattern. The results identified that the major factors
responsible for the changes in land use pattern were rainfall, profitability of crops, salinity and
alkalinity of the soil and drought, labour scarcity and uneconomic holdings.
Bardhan and Tewari (2010) investigated into land use dynamics in India and land
under utilization for the period of 1992-93 to 2005-06. The linear regression was employed to
explore the factors affecting other fallows and cultivable wastes. The results revealed that
cultivable wastes increased with an increase in the area under large holdings and decreased
with increase in the proportion of leased-in land.
 The findings underlined the need for revisiting tenancy laws so as to have beneficial
effects on the livelihood options for the rural poor and land owners alike.
Aravind (2010) conducted the study on economics of land use and cropping pattern in
northern transitional zone of Karnataka from (1977-78 to 2006-07). The study indicated that
the area under forest, land not available for cultivation, other uncultivated land excluding
fallow land and fallow land were positively influenced by population density. Land not
available for cultivation was positively influenced by road length whereas, it was negatively
influenced by population density and rainfall. Similarly, area under other uncultivated land
excluding fallow land was positively influenced by population density and rainfall while, it was
negatively influenced by road length. However, fallow land was positively influenced by
population density and motor vehicles. But, the net area sown was positively influenced by
population and negatively by literacy rate.
The above studies documented some of the socio-economic factors affecting land
use such as population pressure, income, prices, tastes and preferences, rural-urban
interferences, infrastructure development, government policy and global market. Other
studies revealed the factor for the changes in land use were rainfall, population, population
density, literacy, motor vehicles, road length, irrigation facilities, non-agricultural income of the
farm households, size of the holdings, labour availability and credit availability, profitability of
crops, salinity and alkalinity of the soil and drought.

2.5 Impact on cropping intensity

Wani et al. (2009) studied the land use dynamics in Jammu and Kashmir from 1966-
67 to 2004-05. The exponential function was fitted to quantify the determinants of productive
land use. The study revealed that the net irrigated area, literacy level and area not available
for cultivation were positive and significant determinants for the variation in cropping intensity.
The regression coefficient of the average holding size (0.15) revealed its positive contribution
to the improvement of cropping intensity, although the relation has not been found statistically
significant. The regression coefficient for area not available for cultivation (0.79) indicated that
further increase in this area may significantly improve cropping intensity. The increasing
demand for land for urbanization and infrastructural development due to increasing population
may increase pressure on area left for cultivation and improve cropping intensity.

2.6 Ecological implications

Pandey and Tewari (1987) studied the ecological implications of land use dynamics in
Uttar Pradesh from 1967-68 to 1983-84. Both linear and log-linear time trend equations were
estimated using time-series data on the land use for the state as well as, its different
economic regions to find the annual rate of change in various land use classes. Inter-sectoral
land budgeting revealed that substantial land shifts had taken place from the undesirable part
E2 of the ecological sector, i.e. from usar and other barren lands to other sectors throughout
the state and this favored highly to both the desirable part E1 of the ecological sector and the
agricultural sector. It appeared that almost half of the land released from E2 sector has gone
to the non-agricultural sector and the remaining half was shared by the ecological sector E1
and agricultural sector.
Sharma and Pandey (1992) examined the trends and dynamics of annual shifts
among different land use classes in Indian states which may have adverse implications for
agricultural growth and ecological balance. A general declining trend was observed in the
area under permanent pastures, grazing lands and barren and uncultivable lands. The area
under non-agricultural uses, cultivable wastes and fallow showed a positive growth in most of
the states. Inter-sectoral land budgeting revealed that area shifts were occurring from both
desirable and undesirable ecology sectors towards agricultural as well as non-agricultural
sectors. Further, the study identified the operation of vicious circle of land use dynamics
within agricultural sector.
Wani et al. (2009) conducted the study on land use dynamics in Jammu and Kashmir
from 1966-67 to 2004-05. The inter-sectoral budgeting analysis was carried out to find the
pattern and extent of dynamics in land use shifts in the state. The study found that land use
shift has been occurring from the desirable ecology towards undesirable ecology, agricultural
and non-agricultural sectors.
 There was a positive shift of land towards the agricultural sector during the Period-I
(1966-67 to 1984-85) which titled unfavorably towards undesirable ecology during the Period-
II (1985-86 to 2004-05). The shift of land from the agricultural sector to undesirable ecology
may have serious implications towards agricultural growth and requires and immediate check.
Inter-sectoral budgeting estimates for non-agricultural sector have indicated a significant
increase in Period-I, which, later showed a decline and shifted towards undesirable ecology.
Bardhan and Tewari (2010) investigated into land use dynamics in India and land
under utilization from 1992-93 to 2005-06. The study revealed that at the aggregate country
level, there has been substantial land shifts from the undesirable ecology i.e., barren and
uncultivable land thereby mitigating the pressure for diversion of agricultural land to meet the
growing needs of the non-agricultural sector. Moreover, the lands released from undesirable
ecology sector are going to the non-agricultural sector and to a smaller extent to the desirable
ecological sector, mainly forests. In west Bengal, Jammu and Kashmir, Karnataka and Kerala,
lands shifts have occurred from all other sectors to the non-agricultural sector.
The research findings indicated that substantial land shifts have taken from
undesirable ecological sector, i.e. barren and uncultivable land to other sectors which favored
to both desirable ecological sub-sectors as well as agricultural sector and non-agricultural
sector thereby mitigating the pressure for diversion of agricultural land to meet the growing
needs of the non-agricultural sector. Moreover, the lands released from undesirable ecology
sector are going to the non-agricultural sector and to a smaller extent to the desirable
ecological sector and agricultural sector. Another study indicated that area shifts were
occurring from both desirable and undesirable ecology sectors towards agricultural as well as
non-agricultural sectors. Further, the study identified the operation of vicious circle of land use
dynamics within agricultural sector.
 3. METHODOLOGY
This chapter deals with the brief description of the study area, techniques used in the
selection of sample, sources of data and analytical tools employed and is presented under the
following heads.

3.1 Description of the study area

3.2 Selection of the study area and data base

3.3 Analytical tools and techniques

3.4 Terminologies used in the study

3.1 Description of the study area

The study on land use dynamics was taken up for the entire Karnataka.

3.1.1 Delineation and general description of the state

The study area, Karnataka State, is situated between 11° 40' and 18° 27' North
latitude and 74° 5' and 78° 33' East longitude in the centre of western peninsular India
covering an area of 19.1 mha and it accounts for 5.8 per cent of the country's total
geographical area. It has a 350 km long coastline, which forms the western boundary. The
map of Karnataka is depicted in (Fig. 1).

The general features of Karnataka are presented in Table 3.1. The total geographical
area of the Karnataka is 1,91,791 Sq. Kms. According to census 1981 the total population of
the state was 3,71,35,714 of which (1,07,29,606 urban and 2,64,06,108 rural). The population
density was 194 per sq. Km and literacy rate was 38.5 per cent. Agricultural holding were
43.09 lakh and average size of holding was 2.73 hectares while, operational holdings were
1,17,46,000. The total cropped area was 1,05,40,000 hectares and cropping intensity was
106.47 per cent. The normal rainfall was 1139 mm while, actual rainfall was 1524 mm. Road
length was 95100 sq. Km. Per capita income was Rs 9482. According to census 2001, the
total population of the state was 5,28,50,562 (2,68,98,918 males and 2,59,51,644 females)
with a rural population of 66.02 per cent and an urban population of 33.98 per cent while,
population density per square kilometer was 276. Literacy rate of the state was 66.60 per cent
(76.10 per cent male and 56.90 per cent female). According to 2005-06, total numbers of
agricultural holdings were 75.80 lakh. Average size of the holding was 1.63 hectare while
operational holdings were 1,23,84,721. The actual rainfall of the state was 1340 mm. Normal
rainfall in the state was 1197 mm. The total cropped area of the state was 128.9 lakh hectares
while, cropping intensity of the state was 124 per cent in 2007-08. In 2007-08, per capita
income of the state was Rs 30019 and the road length was 228030 sq. Km. in 2007-08.

3.1.2 Physiography
Karnataka State forms part of two well defined macro regions of Indian Union; the
Deccan plateau and the Coastal plains. The State has four physiographic regions.

3.1.2.1 Northern Karnataka Plateau

Northern Karnataka plateau comprises of the districts of Belgaum, Bidar, Bijapur and
Gulbarga and is largely composed of the Deccan trap. It represents a monotonous, treeless
extensive plateau landscape with a general elevation of 300 to 600 meters from the mean sea
level.However, the Krishna basin cover river plains of the Krishna, Bhima, Ghataprabha and
Malaprabha with the intervening watersheds, the step like landscapes, residual hills and
ridges break the monotony of this extensive plateau. The general slope is towards the east.
This region is largely covered with rich black cotton soils.
Fig. 1: Map showing the study area
Table 3.1: General features of Karnataka

Sl. No. Particulars 1980-81 2007-08

1. Total geographical area (Sq. Kms) 1,91,791 1,91,791

2. Total population (No.) 3,71,35,714 5,28,50,562

3. Total urban population (No) 1,07,29,606 1,79,61,529

4. Total rural population (No) 2,64,06,108 3,48,89,033

5. Population density (persons/sq. km) 194 276

6. Literacy rate (%) 38.5 66.60

7 Agricultural holdings (No) 43,09,000 75,80,873

8. Average size of land holdings (Ha) 2.73 1.63

9. Area under operational holdings (Ha) 1,17,46,000 1,23,84,721

10 Total cropped area (Ha) 1,05,40,000 1,28,92,671

11. Cropping Intensity (%) 106.47 123.74

12. Actual rainfall (mm) 1524 1340

13. Normal rainfall (mm) 1139 1197

14. Per capita income (Rs.) 9482 30019

15. Road length (000’ sq. Km) 95.10 228.03

Source: Karnataka at a Glance 2008-09 and statistical abstract Karnataka

 3.1.2.2 Central Karnataka Plateau

Central Karnataka plateau covers the districts of Bellary, Chikmagalur, Chitradurga,

Dharwad, Raichur and Shimoga. The region represents the transitional surface between the
Northern Karnataka plateau of Deccan trap and southern Karnataka plateau with relatively
higher surface.

This region represents the area of Tungabhadra basin. The general elevation varies
between 450 and 700 meters. The general slope of this region is towards the east.

3.1.2.3 Southern Karnataka Plateau

The Southern Karnataka plateau covers the districts of Bangalore, Bangalore Rural,
Hassan, Kodagu, Kolar, Mandya, Mysore and Tumkur. This region largely covers the area of
the Cauvery river basin lying in Karnataka. It is bounded by 600 meters contour and is
characterized by a higher degree of slope. In the west and south, it is enclosed by the ranges
of Western ghats and the northern part is an interrupted but clearly identifiable high plateau.

In the east, the valleys of the Cauvery and its tributaries open out to form undulating
plains. The general elevation of the region varies from 600 to 900 meters. However, residual
heights of 1,500 to 1,750 meters are found in the Biligirirangan hills of Mysore district and the
Brahmagiri range of Kodagu district.

3.1.2.4 Karnataka Coastal Region

The Karnataka Coastal Region, which extends between the Western ghats, edge of
the Karnataka plateau in the east and the Arabian sea in the West, covers Dakshina
Kannada, Udupi and Uttara Kannada districts. This region is traversed by several ridges and
spurs of Western ghats. It has difficult terrain; full of rivers, creeks, waterfalls, peaks and
ranges of hills. The coastal region consists of two broad physical units, the plains and the
Western ghats.

The Coastal plains represent a narrow stretch of estuarine and marine plains. The
abrupt rise at the eastern flanks forms the Western ghats. The northern parts of the ghats are
of lower elevation (450-600 meters) as compared to Southern parts (900 to 1,500 meters).
The Coastal belt with an average width of 50 to 80 km covers a distance of about 267 km
from north to south.

3.1.3 Soils
The soils of Karnataka broadly classified into six types viz., 1) Red soils 2) Lateritic
soils 3) Black soils 4) Alluvial soils 5) Forest soils and 6) Coastal soils.

3.1.4 Climate
The varying geographic and physiographic conditions of the state is responsible for
the climatic variation in the state from arid to semi-arid in the plateau region, sub-humid to
humid tropical in the Ghats and humid tropical monsoon type in the west coast plains. For
meteorological purposes, the state has been divided into three sub-divisions:

i. Coastal Karnataka consisting of Dakshina Kannada, Udupi and Uttara Kannada districts.

ii. North interior Karnataka consisting of Belgaum, Bidar, Bagalkote, Bijapur, Dharwad, haveri,
Gadag, Gulbarga, Koppal and Raichur districts.

iii. South interior Karnataka consisting of Bangalore Rural, Bangalore Urban, Bellary,
Chikmagalur, Chitradurga, Kodagu, Hassan, Kolar, Mysore, Chamrajnagar, Shimoga and
Tumkur districts.
3.1.5 Rainfall
The state receives an average rainfall of 1197 mm with minimum of 495 mm in
Chitradurga district and maximum of 4252 mm in Udupi district. The actual rainfall of the state
was 1340 mm in 2008.

3.1.6 Temperature
Temperature is the lowest in the beginning of January and increases thereafter
gradually at first and rapidly after the middle of February or the beginning of March. In the
southern malnad region, the highest temperature occurs in April while, in the northern malnad
and the coastal areas it occurs in May. In January, the mean daily temperature is 31-32 ° C in
the coastal areas and slightly above 30 ° C in the northern malnad area except in Bidar
district where it is 28-29 ° C. The highest maximum temperature in May reaches 43 ° C in
Gulbarga-Raichur region. In Ghats and Malnad areas, it is about 20-24 ° C. It is seen that the
mean annual range of temperature (difference between highest mean daily maximum
temperature and the lowest mean daily minimum temperature) is smallest in the coastal
region (6 ° C) and greatest in the Bellary-Raichur region.

3.1.7 Land use pattern

Land use pattern in Karnataka state (1980-81 and 2007-08) is presented in Table 3.2.
It can be observed that in 1980-81 the net area sown accounted for 51.96 per cent of total
reported area. Forest covered 15.92 per cent while, land put to non- agricultural uses
occupied share of 5.60 per cent of total reported area. Current fallows, fallows other than
current fallow and cultivable wastes accounted for 7.66 per cent, 2.93 per cent and 2.64 per
cent respectively. Barren and uncultivable land occupied around 4.43 per cent and permanent
pastures and other grazing land covered 7.07 per cent area. Land under miscellaneous tress
and groves accounted 1.80 per cent of the total reported area. In 2007-08, it can be observed
that net area sown accounted for 54.69 per cent of total reported area. Forest covered 16.13
per cent while, land put to non- agricultural uses occupied share of 7.19 per cent of total
reported area. Current fallow, fallow other than current fallow and cultivable wastes accounted
for 6.62 per cent, 2.65 per cent and 2.18 per cent respectively. Barren and uncultivable land
occupied around 4.14 per cent and permanent pastures and other grazing land covered 4.88
per cent area. Land under miscellaneous tree crops and groves accounted 1.52 per cent of
the total reported area.

3.1.8 Cropping pattern

The area under major crops in Karnataka state (1980-81 and 2007-08) is presented
in Table 3.3. It can be observed from the table that in 1980-81, sorghum was the major cereal
crop which occupied 18.88 per cent fallowed by paddy with 10.57 per cent of the total
cropped area. Ragi was in third position with 10.03 per cent area. Similarly, maize, bajra,
wheat and minor millets covered 1.49 per cent, 5.35 per cent, 3.06 per cent and 3.46 per cent
respectively. Chickpea covered 1.33 per cent while, pigeon pea and other pulses covered
3.19 per cent and 10.01 per cent of the total cropped area respectively. Commercial crops like
groundnut, sugarcane and cotton occupied 7.50 per cent, 1.46 per cent and 9.60 per cent,
correspondingly of the total cropped area. It can be observed from the table that in 2007-08,
paddy was the major cereal crop which occupied 10.98 per cent fallowed by sorghum with
10.72 per cent of the total cropped area. Maize was in third position with 8.63 per cent area.
Similarly, ragi, bajra, wheat and minor millets covered 6.45 per cent, 3.34 per cent, 2.13 per
cent and 0.27 per cent respectively. Chickpea covered 4.69 per cent while pigeon pea and
other pulses covered 5.28 per cent and 8.52 per cent of the total cropped area respectively.
Commercial crops like groundnut, sugarcane and cotton occupied 7.04 per cent, 2.37 per
cent and 3.12 per cent, correspondingly of the total cropped area.
Table 3.2: Land use pattern in Karnataka

(Area in ‘000’ hectares)

Sl.
Particulars 1980-81 2007-08
No.

19,050 19,050
1. Total Reported Area
(100.00) (100.00)

3,033 3,072
2. Area under forests
(15.92) (16.13)

844 788
3. Barren and uncultivable lands
(4.43) (4.14)

1,067 1,369
4. Land put to non-agricultural uses
(5.60) (7.19)

Permanent pastures and other grazing 1,346 930

5.
lands (7.07) (4.88)

502 415
6. Cultivable wastes
(2.64) (2.18)

342 290
7. Miscellaneous tree crops and groves
(1.80) (1.52)

1,459 1,262
8. Current fallows
(7.66) (6.62)

558 505
9. Fallows other than current fallow
(2.93) (2.65)

9,899 10,419
10. Net area sown
(51.96) (54.69)

Note: Figures in parentheses indicate percentages to reported area

Source: Karnataka at a Glance 2008-09 and statistical abstract Karnataka
Table 3.3: Area under major crops in Karnataka

(Area in hectares)
Sl. No. Crops 1980-81 2007-08

11,14,144 14,16,316
1 Paddy
(10.57) (10.98)
10,57,000 8,32,722
2 Ragi
(10.03) (6.45)

19,90,451 13,82,177
3 Sorghum
(18.88) (10.72)

5,64,043 4,31,857
4 Bajra
(5.35) (3.34)
1,57,018 11,12,913
5 Maize
(1.49) (8.63)
3,22,000 2,75,583
6 Wheat
(3.06) (2.13)
364300 35623
7 Minor millets
(3.46) (0.27)
8 Chickpea 1,40,000 6,04,971
(1.33) (4.69)

3,36,400 6,81,136
9 Pigeon pea
(3.19) (5.28)
10,55,000 10,98,998
10 Other pulses
(10.01) (8.52)
7,90,000 9,08,412
11 Groundnut
(7.50) (7.04)
1,54,000 3,06,186
12 Sugarcane
(1.46) (2.37)
10,12,000 4,03,054
13 Cotton
(9.60) (3.12)

14,83,644 34,11,401
14 Others
(14.08) (26.46)

1,11,33,000 1,28,92,671
15 Total cropped area
(100.00) (100.00)

Note: Figures in parentheses indicate percentage to total cropped area

Source: Karnataka at a Glance, 2008-09 and trends in area, yield and production of principal crops
during 1960-90.
3.1.9 Irrigation
The net area under different sources of irrigation in Karnataka state is presented in
Table 3.4. In 1980-81, Karnataka had a total irrigated area of about 13.67 lakh hectares. The
canals constituted an important source of irrigation and accounts about 40.17 per cent of the
total irrigation area. Areas irrigated by wells constitute about 26.73 per cent of net irrigated
land followed by tanks 22.32 per cent, other sources 9.12 per cent, lift irrigation 1.62 per cent
and bore wells 0.05 per cent. In 2007-08, Karnataka has a total irrigated area of about 31.32
lakh hectares. The bore wells constituted an important source of irrigation and accounts about
34.45 per cent of the total irrigation area. Areas irrigated by canals constitute about 31.64 per
cent of net irrigated land followed by wells 13.85 per cent, other sources 9.31 per cent, tanks
6.65 per cent and lift irrigation 4.09 per cent.

3.2 Selection of area and data base

3.2.1 Sampling design
For analyzing the land use dynamics, Karnataka state was purposively selected. It
has a total 30 districts of which 17 districts are in Southern part of Karnataka and the
remaining 13 districts are in Northern Karnataka.

3.2.2 Data Base

Data used for the study was collected from various published sources. Time series
secondary data on area under land use categories, population, population density, literacy,
normal and actual rainfall, land holders, industrial units, motor vehicles, road length, net
irrigation, gross irrigation etc., was obtained from various issues of Karnataka at a glance
published by Directorate of Economics and Statistics (DES), Statistical Abstract Karnataka,
Various journals, newsletters and other online information sites and websites like
indiastat.com, agricoop.nic.in etc., The time series data was obtained for a period of 28 years
(1980-81 to 2007-08) which was further divided for analysis purpose into 2 sub-periods as
Period-I which is pre-WTO from 1980-81 to 1994-95 and Period-II as post- WTO from 1995-
96 to 2007-08 and further analyzed for overall period.

3.3 Analytical tools and techniques

The details on the methods and tools employed for the analysis of the data are
presented as under.

1. Tabular analysis

2. Compound growth rate analysis

3. Markov chain analysis

4. Instability index

5. Multiple linear regression analysis, and

6. Annual rate of change

3.3.1 Tabular analysis

For the meaningful interpretation of the data such as land use pattern and changes in
land use pattern in Karnataka for Period-I and Period-II the tabular analysis was employed.
Appropriate percentages and averages were worked out and presented in the form of tables.
Table 3.4: Net area irrigated by different sources of irrigation in Karnataka

(Area in hectares)
Sl. No Net area irrigated 1980-81 2007-08

5,46,584 9,90,729
1 Canals
(40.17) (31.64)

3,03,664 2,08,130
2 Tanks
(22.32) (6.65)

3,63,660 4,33,820
3 Wells
(26.73) (13.85)

625 10,78,920
4 Bore wells
(0.05) (34.45)

22,034 1,28,357
5 Lift irrigation
(1.62) (4.09)

1,24,166 2,91,701
6 Other sources
(9.12) (9.31)

13,60,733 31,31,657
7 Total
(100.00) (100.00)

Note: Figures in parentheses indicate percentages to total irrigated area

Source: Karnataka at Glance 2008-09 and Brochure on irrigation statistics in Karnataka 1980-81 to
1993-94.
3.3.2 Compound growth rate analysis
Growth of any variable indicates its past performance. The analysis of growth is
usually used in economic studies to find out the trend of a particular variable over a period of
time. It clearly indicates the performance of the variable under consideration and hence it can
be very well used for making interpretations and to evolve policy decisions. The growth in the
area under different land use categories was estimated using the exponential growth function
of the form:

Yt= abt eut………………………. (1)

Where,

Yt : Dependent variable for which growth rate was estimated

a : Intercept

b : Regression coefficient = (1+g)

t : Years which takes values, 1, 2, …,n

ut : Disturbance term for the year t

The equation was transformed into log linear form for estimation purpose and was
estimated using Ordinary Least Square (OLS) technique. The compound growth rate (g) in
percentage was then computed from the relationship,

g = {Antilog of (b)-1}*100.

The significance of the regression coefficient was tested using the students ‘t’ test

3.3.3 Markov chain analysis

The Markov chain analysis is an application of dynamic programming to the solution
of a stochastic decision process that can be described by a finite number of states. The
Markov process was used to study the shifts in the shares of land use categories thereby gain
in understanding about the dynamics of the changes in land use.

3.3.3.1 Markov probability model

Any sequence of trials (experiments) that can be subjected to probabilistic analysis is

called a stochastic process. For a stochastic process it is assumed that the movements
(transitions) of objects from one state (possible outcome) to another are governed by a
probabilistic mechanism or system. A finite Markov process is a stochastic process whereby
the outcome of a given trial t (t=1, 2……… T) depends only on the outcome of the preceding
trial (t-1) and this dependence is the same at all stage in the sequence of trials. Consistent
with this definition,

Let, Si = be the ith state of r possible outcomes; i=1, 2, ………, r

W it = be the probability that state Si occurs on trial t or the proportion observed in trial t in
alternate outcome state I of the multinomial population based on a sample of size n, i.e. Pr
(Sit).

Pij = Represent the transitional probability which denotes the probability that if for any time t
the process is in state Si, it moves onto next trial to state Sj, i.e., Pr (Sj. t+1/sjt) = Pij
P = (Pij) = Represent the transitional probability matrix which denotes the transitional
probability for every pair of states (i, j=1,2…………r), and has the following properties.

0 < Pij < 1,………………………………………………….(1)

and

ΣPij=1, for I=1, 2 …r, ……………………………………..(2)

j
Given this set of notations and definitions for a first order Markov chain, the
probability of a particular sequence Si on trial t and Sj on trial t+1 may be represented by

Pr (Sit, Sj.t+1) = Pr(Sit) Pr(Sj.t+1 /Sit)= W it Pij. .……………… (3)

and the probability of being in state j at trial t+1 may be represented by,

Pr (Sj.t+1) = Σ W it Pj or W j, t+1 = Σ W it Pij . . .…. . …..… (4)

i i
The data for the study are the proportion of area under land use. The proportions
change from year to year as a result of different factors. It is reasonable to assume that the
combined influence of these individually systematic forces approximates a stochastic process
and the propensity of farmers to move from one land use category to another category differs
according to the land use category involved. If these assumptions are acceptable, then the
process of land use dynamics may describe in the form of a matrix P of first order transition
probabilities. The element Pij of the matrix indicates the probability of a farmer in land use
category i in one period will move to land use category j during the following period. The
diagonal element Pij measures the probability that the proportion share of ith category of land
use will be retained.

The transition probability matrix was estimated using the Minimum Absolute Deviation
(MAD) estimator. The elements Pij of the matrix are the conditional probabilities of the area
under a particular land use category in time t given its share in time t-1. The diagonal
elements Pij (i=j) indicate the extent of stability of land use categories. Hence, as the diagonal
elements approach zero, area under a particular land use become less and less stable, and
as they approach one, the land use categories tend to exhibit more and more stability over
time. The off-diagonal elements Pij (i≠j) are the probabilities of switching over between
different land use categories. If Pij is the diagonal element corresponding to the ith land use
category, the other elements in the ith row give the proportions of previous period’s area of ith
land use category it is likely to loose to other categories in the current period. The elements of
th
the i column gives the proportions of areas of other land use categories in the previous
period the ith land use category is likely to gain in the current period.

3.3.3.2 Estimation of transition probability matrix

Equation (4) can be used as a base for specifying the statistical model for estimation
the transition probabilities. If errors are incorporated in equation (4) to account for the
difference between the actual and estimated occurrence of W j(t+1), the sample observations
may be assumed to be generated by the following linear statistical model

W jt = ΣW i t-1Pij + Ujt ……………………………….. (5)

or in matrix form it can be written as

Yj = XjPj + Uj…………………………………….……… (6)

Where, Yj is a (Tx1) vector of observations reflecting the proportion in land use

pattern in time t, Xj is a (Txr) matrix of realized values of the proportion in land use pattern I in
time t-1, Pj is a (rx1) vector of unknown transition parameters to be estimated and Uj is a
vector of random disturbances.
3.3.3.3 The minimum absolute deviations estimator

A method to derive parameter estimates when equality or inequality restrictions are

present is to make use of Minimum Absolute Deviations (MAD) estimator. If we employ this
method in obtaining estimates of the transition probabilities, our problem may be specified as
follows:

To find a vector P this minimizes

| Y-XP |' E………………………………………………… (7)

Subject to

Y = XP + u;………............................................................. (8)

RP = e; …………………………………………………… (9)

P > O.……………...............................................................(10)

Where, E is a unit vector of order (rTx1). In order to solve the above LP problem, non-
negative variables are introduced for u such that

U= θ-p……………………………………………………. (11)

Where,

θ = [θjt] = [θ11, θ12 … θ1T, θ21… θrT]' > 0 ………………….. (12) and

p = [pjt] = [p11, p12, ……… p1T, p21, ……. prT]' >……… (13)

By redefining u in this way, the LP problem may be transformed to the following form.

To minimize:

(θ + p)' E …………………………………………..... (14)

Subject to

Y = XP + u = XP = [I,-I] — ………………………… 15)

θ
P
RP= e and ………………......……………… (16)

P, θ, p > O ……………..…………………… (17)

3.3.3.4 Projections

After estimating transition probability matrix (P), proportion of area under land use
categories can be predicted using the following equation:

Y’ (t) =Y’ (0) Pt ………………………………..…. (18)

Where,
Yt= (r x 1) vector of proportion of area under land use categories in year t,
Y0 = (r x 1) vector of proportion of area under land use categories in year 0,
Pt = (r x r) transition probability matrix to the power of time (t) and Y’ (t) and Y’ (0) are
transpose of vector Y (t) and Y (0) respectively.
3.3.4 Instability index
Instability index is a simple analytical technique to find out the fluctuation or instability
in any time series data (Ramasamy et al., 2005; Gupta and Sharma, 2010). It is estimated as
follows:

1. Estimate the parameter of a log-linear trend line for the variable (Yt) for which instability is
to be estimated
2. If the estimated parameter is statistically significant, then the instability index (IIN) is
defined as

IIN = CV X (1-r2)0.5

Where,

CV = Coefficient of variation

r2 = Coefficient of determination

CV = (SD/ Mean) X 100

Where,

SD = Standard deviation

3. If the estimated parameter in the regression equation in not significant, then the CV itself is
the instability index.

3.3.5 Multiple linear regression analysis

3.3.5.1 Causes for temporal changes in land use pattern

Multiple regression analysis was carried out on the time series data for the period
from 1980-81 to 2007-08 to identify the important factors affecting the changes in the area
under use. The functional form used was,

Y = b0 + b1 X1 + b2 X2 + b3 X3 + ……………. + bn Xn + U

Where,

Y = Area under a specific land use category in ha

The explanatory variables considered were:

X1 = Annual rainfall (mm)

X2 = Net irrigated area (‘000 hectares)

X3 = Road length (‘000 Sq. Km)

X4 = Population density (per sq.km)

X5 = Literacy rate (percentage)

X6 = Factories (number)

X7 = Land holders (number)

U = Error term
 Based on R2 fit the multiple linear regressions were selected. The equation was
estimated using Ordinary Least Square (OLS) technique and the significance of the
2
regression coefficient was tested using the students ‘t’ test and significance of the R by F-
test.

3.3.5.2 Impact of land use pattern on cropping intensity

Multiple regression function was carried out using log on both sides for time series
data for the period from 1980-81 to 2007-08 to identify the impact of land use pattern on
cropping intensity. The functional form used was

Y = b0 X1 b1 X2 b2 X3 b3 ……………. Xnbn

Where,

Y = Cropping intensity in percentage

The explanatory variables considered were:
X1 = Area under forest (‘000 hectares)
X2 = Barren and uncultivable lands (‘000 hectares)
X3 = Land put to non-agricultural uses (‘000 hectares)
X4 = Permanent pastures and other grazing lands (‘000 hectares)
X5 = Cultivable wastes (‘000 hectares)
X6 = Miscellaneous tree crops and groves (‘000 hectares)
X7 = Current fallows (‘000 hectares)
X8 = Fallows other than current fallow (‘000 hectares)
X9 = Net area sown (‘000 hectares)
2
Based on R fit the double log model was selected. The equation was transformed
into double log form for estimation purpose and was estimated using Ordinary Least Square
(OLS) technique. Significance of the regression coefficient was tested using the students ‘t’
test.

3.3.5.3 Factor influencing cropping intensity

Multiple regression function was carried out using log on both sides for the period
from 1980-81 to 2007-08 to identify the factor influencing cropping intensity in Karnataka.
Similar study was taken by Wani et al., (2009), while studying the determinants of productive
land utilization in Jammu and Kashmir.

The functional form used was

Y = b0 X1 b1 X2 b2 X3 b3 ……………. Xnbn

Where,

Y = Cropping Intensity in percentage

The explanatory variables considered were:

X1 = Net irrigated area (‘000 hectares)

X2 = Area not available for cultivation (‘000 hectares)
X3 = Literacy (percentage)
X4 = Average size of holdings (hectares)
 Based on R2 fit the double log model was selected. The equation was transformed
into double log form for estimation purpose and was estimated using Ordinary Least Square
(OLS) technique. Significance of the regression coefficient was tested using the students‘t’
test.

3.3.6 Annual rate of change

The dynamics of land use shifts was examined with help of simple identity of linearly
additive land-use changes (Pandey and Tiwari, 1987; Sharma and Pandey, 1992; Wani et al.,
2009). The first accounting identity linearly summed up the area under all land-use classes
which was equal to the total reported area, given by equation (1):

R=Fr +P +M +N +U+ W+ Fc +Fo +C…………………………………… (1)

Where,

R = Total reporting area;

Fr = Area under forest;

P = Area under permanent pastures;

M = Area under miscellaneous tree crops;

N = Area under non-agricultural uses;

U = Barren and uncultivable lands;

W = Cultivable wastes;

Fc = Current fallows;

Fo = Fallows other than current fallow;

C= Net area cultivated;

Also, ∆R = ∆Fr + ∆P + ∆M + ∆N + ∆U + ∆W + ∆Fc + ∆Fo + ∆C……………...(2)

The total land endowment can be conveniently grouped into three broad sectors, viz.
(i) ecological sector (E) comprising Fr, P, M and U, (ii) agricultural sector (A) comprising W, C,
Fc and Fo and (iii) non-agricultural (NA) sector. The ecological sector was further divided into
two sub sectors, viz. (i) the desirable ecology (E1) comprising Fr, P and M, and (ii) undesirable
ecology (E2) comprising U. Then, the net changes within each sector can be budgeted as:

∆E = ∆E1 + ∆E2 = (∆Fr + ∆P + ∆M) + (∆U)………………………………(3)

A = ∆Fc + ∆Fo+ ∆W + ∆C……………………………………………..…..(4)

∆R = ∆E1+ ∆E2 + ∆A + ∆N……………………………….………………(5)

For finding the annual rate of change in various land use classes linear time trend
equations were estimated on the land use time series data for the State.

The annual rates of change in different classes were worked out using equations (4),
(5) and (6) which facilitate the analysis of direction of land use shifts and their dynamics.
Fig. 2: Flow chart of dynamics of land use changes
 The possible land use shift within the ecological sector may occur as follows figure
(2). The land use shifts within from M and P to Fr which has no adverse ecological
implications. The shift from Fr to P, which may possibly occur in some hills, does have some
adverse implications. The shift from U to Fr has favorable ecological consequences.
However, the shift from Fr and M to U will have serious adverse ecological effects.

3.4 Terminologies used in the study

Forest: Area under forests includes all lands classified as forests under any legal enactment
dealing with forests or administered as forests, state-owned or private and whether wooded or
maintained as potential forest land.

Land under non-agricultural uses: This stands for all lands occupied by buildings, roads and
railways or under water. Examples are rivers and canals and other land put to uses other than
agriculture.

Barren and uncultivable lands: This covers all barren and uncultivable land like mountains,
deserts and similar type of land. Land, which cannot be brought under cultivation unless at a
high cost is classified as uncultivable, whether such land is in isolated blocks or within
cultivated holdings.

Permanent pastures and other grazing lands: These cover all grazing lands, whether they are
permanent pastures and meadows or not; village common grazing lands are included under
this head.

Land under miscellaneous tree crops and groves not included in the net area sown: This
category included all cultivable land which is not included under “Net area sown”, but which is
put to some agricultural use. Lands under casuarinas trees, thatching grasses, bamboo,
bushes and other groves for fuel etc., which are not included under orchards shall be
classified under this category.

Cultivable wastes: These include all lands available for cultivation, whether not taken up for
cultivation, or taken up for cultivation once but not cultivated during the current year and last
five years or more in succession.

Fallows land other than current fallow: These include all lands, which were not taken up for
cultivation for a period of not less than one year and not more than five years. The reasons for
keeping such lands fallow may be one or a combination of the following.

1) Poverty of the cultivator

2) Inadequate supply of water

3) Silting of canals and rivers and

4) Non remunerative nature of farming

Current fallows: This class comprises cultivated areas, which are kept fallow during the
current year. If any seedling area is not cropped again in the same year, it may be treated as
current fallow.

Net area sown: This consists of net area sown with crops and orchards.

Total cropped area : Total area covered with crops is the sum total of areas covered by all the
individual crops and area with crops sown more than once during the year being counted as
separate areas for each crop. It is the sum of the area under total food crops and total non-
food crops.
Area sown more than once: It is the area in which more than one crop is cultivated during
each agricultural year. This could be obtained by deducting the net area sown from the total
area cropped.

Cropping intensity: It is the percentage of gross cropped area to net sown area.

Total cropped area

CI = Net sown area × 100

Ecological sector: The ecological sector consists of two sub sectors, viz. (i) desirable ecology
comprising forest, permanent pastures and miscellaneous tree crops and groves, and (ii)
undesirable ecology comprising barren and uncultivable land.

Agricultural sector: Agricultural sector comprise of cultivable wastes, current fallow, fallow
other than current fallow and net sown area.

Non-agricultural sector: Non-agricultural sector is land put to non-agricultural uses.

 4. RESULTS
Keeping in view the objectives, the results are presented under the following
headings:
4.1 Temporal changes in land use pattern in Karnataka
4.2 Dynamics of land use pattern in Karnataka
4.3 Instability of land use pattern
4.4 Causes for temporal changes in land use pattern
4.5 Impact of changes in land use pattern on cropping intensity
4.6 Factor influencing cropping intensity
4.7 Ecological implications of land use dynamics in Karnataka

4.1 Temporal changes in land use pattern in Karnataka

4.1.1 Land use pattern in Karnataka
Land use pattern in Karnataka with their share is presented in Table 4.1. Three points
of time were taken for the analysis of share of land use pattern i.e., 1980-81, 1994-95 and
2007-08. It could be observed that in 1980-81, net area sown accounted for 51.96 per cent of
total reported area. Around 15.92 per cent of area was covered by forest. Barren and
uncultivable land and land put to non-agricultural uses occupied 4.43 per cent and 5.60 per
cent respectively. Current fallows and fallows other than current fallow accounted 7.66 per
cent and 2.93 per cent respectively. Permanent pastures, cultivable wastes and land under
miscellaneous tree crops and groves covered 7.07 per cent, 2.64 per cent and 1.80 per cent
correspondingly of total reported area. In 1995-96, forest covered 16.08 per cent, Barren and
uncultivable land and land put to non-agricultural uses occupied 4.20 per cent and 6.60 per
cent respectively. Permanent pastures, cultivable wastes and land under miscellaneous trees
crops correspondingly covered 5.39 per cent, 2.32 per cent and 1.68 per cent. Current fallows
and fallows other than current fallow accounted 6.71 per cent and 2.33 per cent respectively.
Net sown area occupied 54.70 per cent of the total reported area. In 2007-08, forest covered
16.13 per cent, barren and uncultivable land and land put to non-agricultural uses occupied
4.14 per cent and 7.19 per cent area respectively. Permanent pastures, cultivable wastes and
land under miscellaneous tree crops and groves covered 4.88 per cent, 2.18 per cent and
1.52 per cent correspondingly. Current fallows and fallows other than current fallow
accounted 6.62 per cent and 2.65 per cent respectively. Net sown area occupied 54.69 per
cent of the total reported area.
4.1.2 Changes in land use pattern in Karnataka
The average of land use pattern was worked out for the pre-WTO period (Period-I)
from 1980-81 to 1994-94 and for the post-WTO (Period-II) from 1995-96 to 2007-08, (Fig. 3)
along with the changes in land use patterns between the two periods and the same is
presented in Table 4.2.
The results showed that the area under forest in the state increased marginally by
0.31 per cent between the two periods. Barren and uncultivable land registered a decrease of
2.23 per cent, over the period. Land put under non–agricultural uses has increased by 11.57
per cent. There was a considerable decline in case of land under permanent pastures and
other grazing lands in the state by 17.63 per cent and a reduction of almost an equal
proportion each in case of cultivable wastes (8.60 per cent) and miscellaneous tree crops and
groves (8.24 per cent). The area under current fallows exhibited a sharp rise of 20.73 per cent
while, fallows other than current fallow increased marginally by 0.02 per cent. The net sown
area decreased by 2.09 per cent while, area sown more than once and total cropped area
increased by 35.65 and 3.86 per cent respectively in second period over the previous period.
Table 4.1: Share of different land use categories to total reported area in Karnataka

(Area in ‘000’ hectares)

Land use category 1980-81 1995-96 2007-08

3033 3062 3072

Area under forest
(15.92) (16.08) (16.13)

844 800 788

Barren and uncultivable lands
(4.43) (4.20) (4.14)

1067 1257 1369

Land put to non-agricultural uses
(5.60) (6.60) (7.19)

1346 1028 930

Permanent pastures and other grazing lands
(7.07) (5.39) (4.88)

502 442 415

Cultivable wastes
(2.64) (2.32) (2.18)

342 320 290

Miscellaneous tree crops and groves
(1.80) (1.68) (1.52)

1459 1278 1262

Current fallows
(7.66) (6.71) (6.62)

558 444 505

Fallows other than current fallow
(2.93) (2.33) (2.65)

9899 10419 10419

Net area sown
(51.96) (54.70) (54.70)

19050 19050 19050

Total reported area
(100.00) (100.00) (100.00)

Note: Figures in parentheses indicate percentages to the total reported area

4.1.3 Growth rates in area under different land use categories in Karnataka
The growth in the area under different categories of land use over the period of 28
years (1980-81 to 2007-08) were analyzed using the compound growth rate and are
presented in Table 4.3.
During the Period-I (1980-81 to 1994-95), the area under forest has increased at the
rate of 0.123 per cent per annum. The area under barren and uncultivable lands has declined
by 0.36 per cent while, land put to non-agricultural uses increased by 0.81 per cent annually.
Land under permanent pastures and other grazing land, cultivable wastes and miscellaneous
tree crops and groves decreased by 2.28 per cent, 0.97 per cent and 0.59 per cent per
annum respectively. Current fallows and fallows other than current fallow showed the decline
at the rate of 0.59 per cent and 1.76 per cent per annum respectively. The net sown area,
area sown more than once and total cropped area increased by 0.37 per cent, 7.00 per cent
and 0.99 per cent per annum respectively. Except current fallows the growth rates in all land
use categories were significant at 1 per cent level.
During Period II (1995-96 to 2007-08), the area under forest increased at the rate of
0.03 per cent per annum. The area under barren and uncultivable lands has declined by 0.16
per cent while, land put to non-agricultural uses increased by 0.68 per cent annually. Land
under permanent pastures, cultivable wastes and miscellaneous tree crops and groves
decreased by 0.83 per cent, 0.57 per cent and 0.80 per cent per annum respectively. Current
fallows and fallows other than current fallow showed the increasing growth rate of 0.54 per
cent and 1.87 per cent per annum respectively. The net sown area has declined at the rate of
0.12 per cent while, area sown more than once and total cropped area increased respectively
by 3.57 per cent and 0.47 per cent per annum. Except current fallows, net sown area and
total cropped area, the growth performance in respect of all land use categories were
statistically significant at 1 per cent level.
The growth rate of area under forest was less in second period than in the first period.
The rate of decline of barren and uncultivable land was more in the first period as compared
to second period. The growth rate of land put to non-agricultural uses was also more in the
first period than in the second period. The decline in land under permanent pastures and
grazing lands and cultivable wastes were also more in the first period than in the second
period while, the reverse was observed in case of land under miscellaneous tree crops and
groves. Both the current fallows and fallows other than current fallow declined in the first
period however, both were found to be increased in the second period. The net sown area
showed an increasing rate of growth in first period while, it declined in the second period. The
growth in the area sown more than once and total cropped areas were more in the first period
than in the second period.
The analysis of the land use pattern for the entire period showed that the area under
forest has increased marginally at the rate of 0.04 per cent, per annum. The area under
barren and uncultivable lands has declined by 0.19 per cent while, land put to non-agricultural
uses increased by 0.85 per cent annually. Land under permanent pastures and other grazing
lands, cultivable wastes and miscellaneous tree crops and groves decreased by 1.27 per
cent, 0.64 per cent and 0.59 per cent per annum respectively. Current fallows showed a
growth by 1.20 per cent while, fallows other than current fallow declined at the rate of 0.08 per
cent, per annum. The net sown area has declined at the rate of 0.07 per cent while, area
sown more than once and total cropped area increased by 3.98 per cent and 0.41 per cent
per annum correspondingly. Except fallows other than current fallow and net sown area,
growth in the area in other land use categories were significant at 1 per cent level.

4.2 Dynamics of land use pattern in Karnataka

4.2.1 Dynamics of land use pattern
The Markov Chain analysis was carried out separately for the two periods i.e., Period-
I (1980-81 to 1994-95) and Period-II (1995-96 to 2007-08) to analyse the land use pattern in
Karnataka. The stability of the area share of the different land use categories and the
direction and the volume of changes over time is captured by transition probability matrix and
the results are presented in Table 4.4 and Table 4.5.
Table 4.2: Average area and changes in land use pattern in Karnataka

(Area in ‘000’ hectares)

Area in Area in Percen
Sl. Period-I Period-II Change tage
Land use category
No. (1980-81 to (1995-96 to in area change
1994-95) 2007-08) in area

3058.07 3067.65
1. Area under forest 9.58 0.31
(16.05) (16.10)

810.39 792.75
2. Barren and uncultivable lands -17.64 -2.23
(4.25) (4.16)

Land put to non-agricultural 1165.43 1317.85

3. 152.42 11.57
uses (6.12) (6.92)

Permanent pastures and other 1138.02 967.43

4. -170.59 -17.63
grazing lands (5.97) (5.08)
463.64 426.94
5. Cultivable wastes -36.70 -8.60
(2.43) (2.24)

Miscellaneous tree crops and 328.87 303.84

6. -25.03 -8.24
groves (1.73) (1.59)

1153.50 1456.09
7. Current fallows 302.59 20.78
(6.06) (7.64)

Fallows other than current 447.24 447.35

8. 0.11 0.02
fallow (2.35) (2.35)
10484.94 10269.93
9. Net area sown -215.01 -2.09
(55.05) (53.91)
19050 19050
10. Total reported area 0.00 0.00
(100.00) (100.00)
11. Area sown more than once 1236.93 1922.06 685.13 35.65

12. Total cropped area 11721.86 12192.06 470.20 3.86

Note: Figures in parentheses indicate percentages to the total reported area

Table 4.3: Compound Growth Rates of various land use categories in Karnataka

Overall
Period-I Period-II
Period
Land use category (1980-81 to (1995-96 to
(1980-81 to
1994-95) 2007-08)
2007-08)

Area under forests 0.13* 0.03* 0.04*

Barren and uncultivable lands -0.36* -0.16* -0.19*

Land put to non-agricultural uses 0.81* 0.68* 0.85*

Permanent pastures and other grazing lands -2.28* -0.83* -1.27*

Cultivable wastes -0.97* -0.57* -0.64*

Miscellaneous tree crops and groves -0.59* -0.80* -0.59*

Current fallows -0.59 0.54 1.20*

Fallows other than current fallow -1.76* 1.87* -0.08

Net area sown 0.37* -0.12 -0.07

Area sown more than once 7.00* 3.57* 3.98*

Total cropped area 0.99* 0.47 0.41*

Note: * Significance at 1 per cent level **Significance at 5 per cent level

 Period-I (1980-81 to 1994-95)

16%

4%

6%

6%
55%
3%
2%
6%
2%

Area under forest Barren and uncultivable lands

Land put to non-agricultural uses Permanent pastures and other grazing lands
Cultivable wastes Miscellaneous tree crops and groves
Current fallows Fallows other than current fallow
Net area sown

Fig. 3a: Changes in the land use pattern in Karnataka

Period-II (1995-96 to 2007-08)

16%

4%

7%

54% 5%

2%
2%
8%
2%

Area under forest Barren and uncultivable lands

Land put to non-agricultural uses Permanent pastures and other grazing lands
Cultivable wastes Miscellaneous tree crops and groves
Current fallows Fallows other than current fallow
Net area sown

Fig. 3b: Changes in the land use pattern in Karnataka

Fig. 3: Changes in the land use pattern in Karnataka

Table 4.4: Transitional probability matrix for land use categories in Karnataka for
Period-I (1980-81 to 1994-95)

Other
Land not Net
Land use uncultivated Fallow
Forest available for area
category land excluding land
cultivation sown
fallow land

Forest 0.689 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.311

Land not available for

0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.000
cultivation

Other uncultivated land

0.052 0.000 0.855 0.091 0.001
excluding fallow land

Fallow land 0.046 0.150 0.101 0.159 0.544

Net area sown 0.074 0.166 0.009 0.103 0.648

Note:
Land not available for cultivation included a) Land put to non-agricultural uses b) Barren and
uncultivable lands;
Other uncultivated land excluding fallow land included a) Permanent pastures and other grazing lands b)
Land under miscellaneous tree crops and groves c) Cultivable wastes;
Fallow land included a) Current fallows b) Fallows other than current fallow.

Table 4.5: Transitional probability matrix for land use categories in Karnataka for
Period-II (1995-96 to 2007-08)

Other
Land not Net
Land use uncultivated Fallow
Forest available for area
category land excluding land
cultivation sown
fallow land

Forest 0.679 0.000 0.042 0.000 0.280

Land not available for

0.007 0.952 0.000 0.000 0.041
cultivation

Other uncultivated land

0.000 0.000 0.896 0.000 0.104
excluding fallow land

Fallow land 0.077 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.923

Net area sown 0.080 0.011 0.004 0.181 0.724

Note:
Land not available for cultivation included a) Land put to non-agricultural uses b) Barren and
uncultivable lands;
Other uncultivated land excluding fallow land included a) Permanent pastures and other grazing lands b)
Land under miscellaneous tree crops and groves c) Cultivable wastes;
Fallow land included a) Current fallows b) Fallows other than current fallow.
 It can be inferred from Table 4.4 that during Period-I, different land use categories
considered in the study have shown some stability except land not available for cultivation.
The forests retained 68.9 per cent of previous period’s share during this period. It gave away
31.1 per cent to net area sown. However, it gained 5.2 per cent from other uncultivated land
excluding fallow land, 4.6 per cent share of fallow land and 7.4 per cent from net area sown.
Land not available for cultivation could not retain its previous years’ share at all and lost 100
per cent of its share to the net sown area. On the other hand, it gained 15 per cent share of
fallow land and 16.6 per cent share of net sown area. Other uncultivated land excluding fallow
land was found to be more stable than any other land use category. It could retain 85.5 per
cent of previous years’ share and lost 5.2 per cent of its previous years’ share to forest and
9.1 per cent to fallow land. In contrast, it gained 10.1 per cent from fallow land and 0.9 per
cent from net sown area. Fallow land could retain 15.9 per cent of its previous years’ share
and lost at the rate of 4.6 per cent to forest, 15 per cent to land not available for cultivation,
10.1 per cent to other uncultivated land excluding fallow and 54.4 per cent to net sown area.
However, it gained 9.1 per cent from other uncultivated land excluding fallow and 10.3 per
cent from net sown area. Net area sown retained 64.8 per cent of its previous years’ share. It
lost 7.4 per cent of its area share to forest, 16.6 per cent to land not available for cultivation,
0.9 per cent to other uncultivated land excluding fallow and 10.3 per cent to fallow land.
Conversely, it gained 31.1 per cent from forest, 100 per cent from land not available for
cultivation and 54.4 per cent from fallow land.
Table 4.5 presents the outcomes of the transition probability matrix for different land
use categories in Karnataka state for the Period-II. All land use categories considered in the
study have shown stability except fallow land. Forest had retained 67.9 per cent of previous
periods’ share during the current period. But it gave away 4.2 per cent of its previous share to
other uncultivable land excluding fallow land and 28 per cent to net area sown.
However, it gained 0.7 per cent from land not available for cultivation, 7.7 per cent
from fallow land and 8 per cent from net sown area. The land not available for cultivation was
found to be highly stable and could retain as high as 95.2 per cent of its previous share.
Though, it lost 0.7 per cent to forest and 4.1 per cent to net sown area but gained 1.1 per cent
from net sown area. The other uncultivated land excluding fallow land could retain 89.6 per
cent of its previous share and lost 10.4 per cent of its area to net sown area. On the other
hand, it gained 4.2 per cent share from forest and 0.4 per cent from net sown area. Fallow
land was found to be highly unstable and failed to retain its previous years’ share. It lost its
92.3 per cent of its share to net sown area and 7.7 per cent to forest, however gained 18.1
per cent from net sown area. Net sown area could retain 72.4 per cent of its previous years’
share and lost 8 per cent to forest, 1.1 per cent to land not available for cultivation, 0.4 per
cent to other uncultivated land excluding fallow and 18.1 per cent to fallow land. However, it
gained 28 per cent from forest, 4.1 per cent from land not available for cultivation, 10.4 per
cent from other uncultivated land excluding fallow and 92.3 per cent from fallow land.
Land not available for cultivation was highly unstable in Period-I but turned into highly
stable category in the second period. Other uncultivated land excluding fallow land and net
sown area were more stable in both periods. However, net sown area found to be
comparatively more stable in Period-II than in Period-I while, fallow land became highly
unstable in the second period. Area under forest showed similar stability in both the periods.
4.2.2 Projected shares of different land use categories in Karnataka
The shares of different land use categories were predicted for the next five years
(2008-09 to 2012-13) using transition probabilities and are presented in Table 4.6.
The results revealed that the area under other uncultivated land excluding fallow land
is likely to lose its share in the coming years. Area under forest is likely to retain its share in
the future while, land not available for cultivation is likely to increase its share in future. Fallow
land and net area sown also likely to lose their share in future.
Table 4.7 and Table 4.8 indicated the actual and estimated proportion of the land use
categories in Karnataka state. A comparison of these proportions (Fig. 4 to 8) revealed that
the actual and estimated proportions are almost the same implying that the model was
reasonably efficient and the structural changes captured in the land use pattern were fairly
accurate.
4.3 Instability of land use pattern
Instability index is a measure of extent of variability or the absence of stability in time
series data and hence the instability indices for various land use categories were worked out
for 28 years (1980-81 to 2007-08) and are presented in Table 4.9 and depicted in (Fig. 9).
During the Period-I (1980-81 to 1994-95) the instability index for forest was 0.223.
The instability indices for barren and uncultivable land and land put to non agricultural uses
were 1.035 and 1.145 respectively and the same for permanent pastures and other grazing
lands, cultivable wastes and miscellaneous tree crops and groves were 4.530, 1.547 and
2.441 respectively. The same for current fallows and fallows other than current fallow were of
high order at 14.242 and 6.447 respectively, and that for net sown area was 1.904 in the
aforesaid period.
During the Period-II (1995-96 to 2007-08) the instability index for forest was 0.050.
The instability indices for barren and uncultivable land and land put to non agricultural uses
were 0.313 and 0.359 respectively. The corresponding instability indices for permanent
pastures, cultivable wastes and miscellaneous tree crops and groves were 0.877, 0.531 and
0.714. Similarly, the same for current fallows and fallows other than current fallow were of
high order at 16.916 and 6.576 respectively and that for net sown area was 2.515 in the
aforementioned period.
During the entire period (1980-81 to 2007-08) the instability index for forest was 0.350
and that for barren and uncultivable land and land put to non agricultural uses were 0.981 and
1.005 respectively. The corresponding instability indices for permanent pastures, cultivable
wastes and miscellaneous tree crops and groves were 5.171, 1.680 and 1.906. The instability
indices for current fallows and fallows other than current fallow were of high order and
observed to be 17.006 and 9.990 respectively. The same for net sown area was observed to
be 2.642 in the aforesaid period.
For the entire period the highest instability was observed in respect of current fallows
followed by fallows other than current fallow, permanent pastures and other grazing land. The
lowest index was noticed in case of forest land.

Table 4.6: Projected shares of land use categories in Karnataka

(per cent)
Other
Category Land not uncultivated
Fallow Net area
Forest available for land
Year land sown
cultivation excluding
fallow land

2008-09 16.13 11.37 8.56 9.91 54.03

2009-10 16.13 11.40 8.53 9.79 54.14

2010-11 16.13 11.44 8.51 9.81 54.11

2011-12 16.13 11.47 8.49 9.81 54.10

2012-13 16.13 11.50 8.48 9.80 54.09

Note:
Land not available for cultivation included a) Land put to non-agricultural uses b) Barren and
uncultivable lands;
Other uncultivated land excluding fallow land included a) Permanent pastures and other grazing lands b)
Land under miscellaneous tree crops and groves c) Cultivable wastes;
Fallow land included a) Current fallows b) Fallows other than current fallow
Table 4.7: Actual and estimated proportion of land use categories in Karnataka during Period-I (1981-82 to 1994-95)

(per cent)
Other uncultivated
Land not available for
Forest land excluding fallow Fallow land Net area sown
Year cultivation
land
Actual Estimated Actual Estimated Actual Estimated Actual Estimated Actual Estimated
1980-81 15.92 - 10.03 - 11.50 - 10.59 - 51.96 -
1981-82 15.91 15.91 10.16 10.21 11.23 11.35 9.54 8.10 53.16 54.43
1982-83 15.91 15.93 10.29 10.25 10.96 11.02 8.49 8.03 54.36 54.76
1983-84 15.91 15.95 10.34 10.29 10.86 10.70 7.23 7.97 55.67 55.10
1984-85 15.99 15.99 10.30 10.32 10.50 10.50 7.82 7.89 55.38 55.31
1985-86 16.05 16.04 10.30 10.36 10.37 10.25 9.89 7.92 53.40 55.43
1986-87 16.07 16.01 10.30 10.34 10.33 10.33 8.01 8.04 55.29 55.29
1987-88 16.07 16.08 10.37 10.37 10.07 10.12 7.13 7.93 56.36 55.50
1988-89 16.12 16.10 10.40 10.42 9.82 9.82 8.54 7.88 55.13 55.78
1989-90 16.14 16.10 10.40 10.42 9.78 9.73 7.46 7.95 56.21 55.79
1990-91 16.14 16.14 10.44 10.44 9.76 9.61 9.17 7.89 54.49 55.92
1991-92 16.14 16.09 10.47 10.41 9.75 9.75 7.43 7.98 56.21 55.77
1992-93 16.14 16.14 10.53 10.44 8.82 9.58 7.88 7.88 56.63 55.97
1993-94 16.14 16.15 10.59 10.57 8.71 8.83 7.91 7.91 56.64 56.54
1994-95 16.14 16.14 10.66 10.58 9.55 8.74 8.95 7.91 54.70 56.63

Note:
Land not available for cultivation included a) Land put to non-agricultural uses b) Barren and uncultivable lands;
Other uncultivated land excluding fallow land included a) Permanent pastures and other grazing lands b) Land under miscellaneous tree crops and groves c) Cultivable wastes;
Fallow land included a) Current fallows b) Fallows other than current fallow
 Forest
16.2
Actual
Estimated
16.15

16.1

16.05

16
Per cent

15.95

15.9

15.85

15.8

15.75
1980-81

1982-83

1984-85

1986-87

1988-89

1990-91

1992-93

1994-95

1996-97

1998-99

2000-01

2002-03

2004-05

2006-07
Year

Fig. 4: Actual and estimated proportion of forest in Karnataka

Fig. 4: Actual and estimated proportion of forest in Karnataka

Area not available for cultivation

Actual
11.5 Estimated

11

10.5
Per cent

10

9.5

9
1980-81

1982-83

1984-85

1986-87

1988-89

1990-91

1992-93

1994-95

1996-97

1998-99

2000-01

2002-03

2004-05

2006-07

Year
Fig. 5: Actual and estimated proportion of area not available for cultivation in Karnataka

Fig. 5: Actual and estimated proportion of area not available for cultivation in
Karnataka
 Other cultivated land excluding fallow
14
Actual
Estimated

12

10

Per cent
6

0
1980-81

1981-82

1982-83

1983-84

1984-85

1985-86

1986-87

1987-88

1988-89

1989-90

1990-91

1991-92

1992-93

1993-94

1994-95

1995-96

1996-97

1997-98

1998-99

1999-00

2000-01

2001-02

2002-03

2003-04

2004-05

2005-06

2006-07

2007-08
Year

Fig. 6: Actual and estimated proportion of other uncultivated land excluding fallow in Karnataka

Fig. 6: Actual and estimated proportion of other uncultivated land excluding fallow in
Karnataka
Fallow land
14
Actual
Estimated

12

10

8
Per cent

0
1980-81

1982-83

1984-85

1986-87

1988-89

1990-91

1992-93

1994-95

1996-97

1998-99

2000-01

2002-03

2004-05

2006-07
Year
Fig. 7: Actual and estimated proportion of fallow land in Karnataka

Fig. 7: Actual and estimated proportion of fallow land in Karnataka

Net sown area
58
Actual
Estimated
57

56

55

54
Per cent

53

52

51

50

49
1980-81

1981-82

1982-83

1983-84

1984-85

1985-86

1986-87

1987-88

1988-89

1989-90

1990-91

1991-92

1992-93

1993-94

1994-95

1995-96

1996-97

1997-98

1998-99

1999-00

2000-01

2001-02

2002-03

2003-04

2004-05

2005-06

2006-07

2007-08

Year
Fig. 8: Actual and estimated proportion of net sown area in Karnataka

Fig. 8: Actual and estimated proportion of net sown area in Karnataka

Table 4.8: Actual and estimated proportion of land use categories in Karnataka during Period-II (1995-96 to 2007-08)

(per cent)
Other uncultivated
Land not available for
Forest land excluding fallow Fallow land Net area sown
Year cultivation
land
Actual Estimated Actual Estimated Actual Estimated Actual Estimated Actual Estimated
1995-96 16.08 16.09 10.79 10.41 9.40 9.54 9.04 7.91 54.70 56.01
1996-97 16.08 16.08 10.86 10.86 9.32 9.29 8.06 9.91 55.69 53.86
1997-98 16.08 16.08 10.95 10.94 9.22 9.22 10.86 10.09 52.89 53.67
1998-99 16.08 16.08 11.00 10.99 9.11 9.12 8.76 9.58 55.06 54.23
1999-00 16.08 16.09 11.01 11.06 9.01 9.03 10.05 9.98 53.85 53.85
2000-01 16.11 16.09 11.06 11.06 8.87 8.93 9.32 9.76 54.65 54.15
2001-02 16.12 16.12 11.09 11.11 8.82 8.81 11.31 9.90 52.66 54.05
2002-03 16.12 16.12 11.13 11.13 8.81 8.77 12.30 9.54 51.64 54.45
2003-04 16.12 16.12 11.15 11.15 8.75 8.75 12.29 9.36 51.69 54.63
2004-05 16.12 16.12 11.17 11.17 8.73 8.70 8.87 9.37 55.12 54.64
2005-06 16.13 16.13 11.22 11.23 8.65 8.69 8.85 9.99 55.17 53.97
2006-07 16.13 16.14 11.29 11.27 8.62 8.62 10.92 10.00 53.04 53.98
2007-08 16.13 16.13 11.32 11.32 8.58 8.58 9.28 9.61 54.69 54.36

Note:
Land not available for cultivation included a) Land put to non-agricultural uses b) Barren and uncultivable lands;
Other uncultivated land excluding fallow land included a) Permanent pastures and other grazing lands b) Land under miscellaneous tree crops and groves c) Cultivable wastes;
Fallow land included a) Current fallows b) Fallows other than current fallow
Table 4.9: Instability index of different land use categories in Karnataka

(per cent)

Overall
Period-I Period-II
Period
Land use category (1980-81 to (1995-96 to
(1980-81 to
1994-95 2007-08)
2007-08)

Forest 0.223 0.050 0.350

Barren and uncultivable land 1.035 0.313 0.981

Land put to non agriculture uses 1.145 0.359 1.005

Permanent pastures and other grazing

4.530 0.877 5.171
lands

Cultivable wastes 1.547 0.531 1.680

Miscellaneous tree crops and groves 2.441 0.714 1.906

Current fallows 14.242 16.916 17.006

Fallows other than current fallow 6.447 6.576 9.990

Net area sown 1.904 2.515 2.642

18
Period-I (1980-81 to 1994-95
Period-II (1995-96 to 2007-08)
16
Overall Period (1980-81 to 2007-08)

14

12

10
Per cent

0
Forest Barren and Land put to non Permanent pastures Cultivable wastes Miscellaneous tree Current fallows Fallows other than Net area sown
uncultivable land agriculture uses and other grazing crops and groves current fallow
lands
Land use category

Fig. 9: Instability index for different land use categories

Fig. 9: Instability index for different land use categories

4.4 Causes for temporal changes in land use pattern
Causes for changes in the area under different land use categories was studied by
using regression analysis where, the area under land use is regressed on several causal
factors such as rainfall, net irrigated area, road length, population density, literacy, factories
and number of land holdings.
The response of land use categories to the causal factors has been analyzed for the
state as a whole and results are presented in Table 4.10. A perusal of table revealed that the
area under forest was positively influenced by the literacy and negatively influenced by the
population density. The regression coefficients of literacy (7.926) and population density
(3.177) were significant. Barren and uncultivable land was negatively influenced by the
literacy level and the number of factories and the regression coefficients of literacy (4.890)
and the number of factories (0.003) were statistically significant. Land put to non-agricultural
uses was negatively influenced by road length while, it was positively influenced by the
population density. The corresponding regression coefficients for road length (0.946) and
population density (5.176) were noteworthy. Land under permanent pastures and other
grazing land was negatively and considerably influenced by the literacy with the regression
coefficient of 30.820. Cultivable wastes showed a positive response to population density
while, negatively influenced by literacy rate and number of factories. The regression
coefficients of population density (1.692), literacy (5.565) and the number of factories (0.002)
were significant. Land under miscellaneous tree crops and a grove was negatively influenced
by the number of land holdings with the regression coefficient of 0.068. Current fallows
showed a negative response with net irrigated area with regression coefficient of 1.231. The
fallows other than current fallow was positively influenced by road length, while, negative
response with literacy and net irrigated area. The regression coefficients in respect of road
length (2.412), literacy (19.847) and net irrigated area (0.202) were significant. Net sown area
was influenced positively by net irrigated area with the regression coefficient of 1.414. The
rainfall was unable to exert significant impact on land use categories.
The adequacy of the model for the respective series among different land use
categories indicted by the coefficient of multiple determinations. The R2 varied from 0.660 to
0.990 which testified the adequacy of the model.

4.5 Impact of changes in land use pattern on cropping intensity

The impact of changes in land use pattern on cropping intensity was studied by using
multiple regression of double log form where, the cropping intensity was regressed with all
land use categories such as area under forest, barren and uncultivable land, land put to non-
agricultural uses, land under permanent pastures and grazing lands, cultivable wastes, land
under miscellaneous tree crops and groves, current fallows, fallows other than current fallow
and net sown area.
The response of cropping intensity to the land use categories has been analyzed for
the state as a whole and the results are presented in Table 4.11. A perusal of results in the
table revealed that the land put to non-agricultural uses and fallows other than current fallow
are the land use categories which significantly influenced the cropping intensity. The
regression coefficient of land put to non-agricultural uses (0.696) signified that the increases
in land under this category will also compel to increase the cropping intensity. Similarly, the
regression coefficient of fallows other than current fallows (0.116) signified that the increase in
land under this category will lead to an increased cropping intensity. Except for cultivable
wastes, the regression coefficients for all other categories of land showed positive relationship
with the cropping intensity even though the relationships have not been found statistically
2
significant. The R value was found to be 0.961 which indicated that the variables specified in
the model could explain more than 95 per cent of the variation in the cropping intensity.

4.6 Factor influencing cropping intensity

The factor influencing cropping intensity was studied by using multiple regression of
double log form where, the cropping intensity was regressed with net irrigated area, area not
available for cultivation, literacy, average size of holdings.
Table 4.10: Causes for the temporal changes in land use pattern in Karnataka

Barren and Land put to Permanent Land under Fallows

Land use Uncultivable non- pastures and Cultivable miscellaneous Current other than Net area
Forest land
category agricultural other grazing wastes tree crops and fallows current sown
uses lands groves fallow
3196.338 800.744 453.646 1379.483 492.716 317.454 535.524 438.116 11436.410
Constant
(39.218) (37.331) (75.792) (324.433) (29.884) (41.806) (1210.070) (189.332) (1398.118)
-0.001 0.012 -0.027 0.001 0.004 -0.009 -0.208 -0.022 0.254
Rainfall
(0.008) (0.008) (0.016) (0.067) (0.006) (0.009) (0.248) (0.039) (0.287)
-0.011 0.003 0.044 -0.023 0.001 0.004 -1.231** -0.202** 1.414**
Net irrigated area
(0.016) (0.015) (0.031) (0.131) (0.012) (0.017) (0.490) (0.077) (0.566)
0.293 -0.015 -0.946* 0.558 -0.002 -0.292 1.880 2.412* -3.880
Road length
(0.147) (0.140) (0.284) (1.214) (0.112) (0.156) (4.528) (0.709) (5.232)
Population -3.177* 1.349 5.176* 3.074 1.692* 1.733 -3.262 1.582 -8.167
density (0.727) (0.692) (1.405) (6.012) (0.554) (0.775) (22.424) (3.509) (25.909)
7.926* -4.890** -2.827 -30.820** -5.565* 0.513 -54.239 -19.847** 109.756
Literacy
(1.859) (1.770) (3.593) (15.381) (1.417) (1.982) (57.367) (8.976) (66.282)
0.002 -0.003* 0.002 0.003 -0.002* 0.000 -0.010 -0.007 0.016
No. of factories
(0.001) (0.001) (0.002) (0.007) (0.001) (0.001) (0.025) (0.004) (0.028)
No. of land 0.027 -0.007 -0.048 0.107 -0.021 -0.068** 1.244 0.163 -1.397
holdings (0.024) (0.023) (0.046) (0.198) (0.018) (0.026) (0.739) (0.116) (0.854)
F value 26.300* 30.144* 271.369* 29.214* 146.479* 30.338* 6.519* 8.876* 5.549*
2
R 0.902 0.913 0.990 0.911 0.981 0.914 0.695 0.756 0.660

Note: Figures in parentheses indicate standard error, *Significance at 1 per cent level, ** Significance at 5 per cent level
Table 4.11: Impact of changes in land use pattern on cropping intensity

Explanatory variables Coefficients

0.000
Intercept
(21.141)

3.395
Forest
(2.243)

0.789
Barren and uncultivable land
(0.533)

0.696*
Land put to non-agricultural uses
(0.235)

0.140
Permanent pastures and other grazing lands
(0.083)

-0.099
Cultivable wastes
(0.446)

0.002
Land under miscellaneous tree crops and groves
(0.122)

0.080
Current fallows
(0.101)

0.116**
Fallows other than current fallow
(0.049)

1.141
Net sown area
(0.763)

F- Value 48.665*

2
R 0.961

Note: Figures in parentheses indicate standard error

*Significance at 1 per cent level, ** Significance at 5 per cent level
Table 4.12: Factor influencing cropping intensity

Explanatory variables Coefficients

5.874
Intercept
(1.524)

0.240*
Net irrigated area
(0.050)

0.238
Area not available for cultivation
(0.202)

-0.159
Literacy
(0.086)

-0.055
Average size of land holding
(0.057)

F- value 111.418*

R2 0.951

Note: Figures in parentheses indicate standard error

* Significance at 1 per cent level **Significance at 5 per cent level
 The response of cropping intensity to the above said variables has been analyzed for
the state as a whole and the results are presented in the Table 4.12. The results showed that
the net irrigated area influenced the cropping intensity significantly than any other variables.
The regression coefficient of net irrigated area (0.240) signified that the increase in land under
irrigation increased the cropping intensity. The area not available for cultivation with
regression coefficient 0.238 showed a positive influence. However, literacy rate and average
size of holding showed negative responses with coefficients 0.159 and 0.055 respectively.
Except net irrigated area, other variables were unable to exert any significant influence on
cropping intensity.
2
The R value was found to be 0.951 which indicated that the variables specified in the
model could explain more than 95 per cent of the variation in the cropping intensity.

4.7 Ecological implications of land use dynamics in Karnataka

4.7.1 Intra-sectoral dynamics of land use in Karnataka
The results furnished in Table 4.13 elicit the annual rate of change in various land use
categories for the periods-I and II and also for the entire period (1980-81 to 2007-08).
During the Period-I, it was depicted that land shifts have taken place from all
ecological sub-sectors to other sectors, except forest. Area under forest increased at an
annual rate of 3,909 hectares on the other hand in respect of other ecological sub-sectors
such as permanent pastures and other grazing lands, land under miscellaneous tree crops
and groves and barren and uncultivable lands declined annually by 25,931, 1,950 and 2,915
hectares respectively. The rate of decline in area in case of permanent pastures and other
grazing land was found to be of extremely high order compared to other ecological sub-
sectors.
In the agricultural sector, except net sown area there was a shift in land from all other
sub-sectors. The net sown area has increased at annual rate of 38,284 hectares. The
cultivable wastes, fallows other than current fallow and current fallows showed an annual
decline by 4,587, 7,893 and 8,262 hectares respectively. However, in case of non-agricultural
sector there was a substantial increase in the area at the rate of 9,291 hectares annually.
During the Period-II it could be ascertained from the table that land shifts have taken
place from all ecological sub-sectors to other sectors, except in the case of forest. Forest has
increased at annual rate of 1,000 hectares. However, in respect of other ecological sub-
sectors such as permanent pastures and other grazing lands, land under miscellaneous tree
crops and groves and barren and uncultivable lands there was an annual decline in area by
8,110, 2,429 and 1,300 hectares respectively.
In the agricultural sector, except for current fallows and fallows other than current
fallow there was a shift in area of other sub-sectors, namely cultivable wastes and net sown
area. The current fallows and fallows other than current fallow have increased at an annual
rate of 8,371 and 7,807 hectares respectively. The cultivable wastes and net sown area
showed an annual decrease by 2,437 and 11,819 hectares respectively. There was a
substantial decline in the area under net sown area in this period. The non-agricultural sector
showed an increase in its area by 8,929 hectares annually.
A comparison in land shifts between Period-I and II indicated a sharp decrease in
area under permanent pastures and other grazing lands in Period-I (25,931 hectares) over
Period-II (8,110 hectares) in ecological sectors. Similar observation was made in respect of
cultivable wastes in agricultural sector. Within agricultural sector the areas under fallows other
than current fallow and current fallows have declined sharply in first period and the reverse
trend of increase was observed in the second period. The area under net sown area was
found to be decreasing (11,819 hectares) in the second period on the contrary it increased
(38,284 hectares) substantially in the first period.
During the entire period it can be observed that land shifts have taken place from all
ecological sub-sectors to other sectors except from forest.
Table 4.13: Intra-sectoral dynamics of land use in Karnataka

Annual rate of change (‘000 ha)

Ecological sector Agricultural sector
Land put to
non-
Periods Permanent Land under Barren and Fallows other
agricultural Cultivable Current Net area
uses Forest pastures and other miscellaneous tree Uncultivable than current
wastes fallows sown
grazing lands crops and groves land fallow

Period-I
9.291 3.909 -25.931 -1.950 -2.915 -4.587 -7.893 -8.262 38.284
(1980-81 to 1994-95)

Period-II
8.929 1.000 -8.110 -2.429 -1.300 -2.437 7.807 8.371 -11.819
(1995-96 to 2007-08)

Overall Period
10.447 1.210 -13.886 -1.877 -1.518 -2.904 15.716 -0.427 -6.784
(1980-81 to 2007-08)
Table 4.14: Budgeting of inter-sectoral land-use shifts in Karnataka

Annual rate of change(‘000 ha)

Land use sector

Period-I Period-II Overall Period
(1980-81 to (1995-96 to (1980-81 to
1994-95) 2007-08) 2007-08)

Ecological sector (∆E = ∆E1 + ∆E2) -26.887 -10.839 -16.070

Desirable ecological sector (∆E1) -23.972 -9.539 -14.552

Undesirable ecological sector (∆E2) -2.915 -1.300 -1.518

Agricultural sector (∆A) 17.542 1.922 5.600

Non-agricultural sector (∆N) 9.291 8.929 10.447

Net sectoral changes* -0.053 0.011 -0.022

Note: *The net sectoral change is equal to algebraic sum of ∆N + ∆E1 + ∆E2 + ∆A
 20 Period-I (1980-81 to 1994-95
Period-II (1995-96 to 2007-08)

15 Overall Period (1980-81 to 2007-08)

10
Annual rate of change(‘000 ha)

-5

-10

-15

-20

-25
Desirable ecological sector (∆E1) Undesirable ecological sector (∆E2) Agricultural sector (∆A) Non-agricultural sector (∆N)

Land use sector

Fig. 10: Inter-sectoral land-use shifts in Karnataka

Fig. 10: Inter-sectoral land-use shifts in Karnataka

 The area under forest has increased at annual rate of 1,210 hectares. Contrary, in
respect of other ecological sub-sectors such as permanent pastures and other grazing lands,
land under miscellaneous tree crops and groves and barren and uncultivable lands declined
annually by 13,886, 1,877 and 1,518 hectares respectively.
In the agricultural sector, except fallows other than current fallow, there was a
reduction in the area under other sub-sectors. The area under fallows other than current
fallow has increased substantially at annual rate of 15,716 hectares. The cultivable wastes,
current fallows and net sown area showed an annual decrease by 2,904, 427 and 6,784
hectares respectively. However, the area under non-agricultural sector showed a
considerable increase in its area to the extent of 10,447 hectares annually.
4.7.2 Budgeting of inter-sectoral land use shift in Karnataka
The inter-sectoral budgeting analysis was carried out to find out the pattern and
extent of dynamics in land use shift in the state and was worked out for 28 years (1980-81 to
2007-08) and the same are presented in Table 4.14 and in Fig. 10.
During the Period-I the area under ecological sector has declined substantially at an
annual rate of 26,887 hectares. Of this decline, the share of desirable ecology was (89.16 per
cent) 23,972 hectares while, that of undesirable ecological sector was (10.84 per cent) 2,915
hectares. The agricultural sector showed an increased area under it with an annual addition
by 17,542 hectares while, non-agricultural sector also showed a sizeable growth in area at the
annual growth of 9,291 hectares in the aforesaid period.
During the Period-II the area under ecological sector has decreased at an annual rate
of 10,839 hectares of which the share of desirable ecology was (88.00 per cent) 9,539
hectares while, the share of undesirable ecological sector was (12.00 per cent) 1,300
hectares. The agricultural sector showed an annual growth rate of 1,922 hectares while, even
in this period the area under non-agricultural sector continued to grow remarkably at an
annual rate of 8,929 hectares in the aforementioned period.
Although there was a decline in the area under ecological sector in both the periods,
the magnitude in area decrease was large (26,887 hectares) in Period-I over Period-II (10,839
hectares). A large proportion of decline in ecological sector was substantially contributed (88
to 89 per cent) by desirable ecological sector as compared to undesirable ecological sector
(11 to 12 per cent) in both the periods. The annual growth in area under agricultural sector
was very high in Period-I (17,542 hectares) over Period-II (1,922 hectares). The area under
non-agricultural sector showed a remarkable increase in both the periods.
During the entire study period, the ecological sector has decreased substantially at an
annual rate of 16,070 hectares of which the share of desirable ecology was (90.55 per cent)
14,552 hectares while, the share of undesirable ecological sector was (9.45 per cent) 1,518
hectares. The agricultural sector showed an annual growth rate of 5,600 hectares while, non-
agricultural sector showed an annual growth rate of 10,447 hectares in the above mentioned
period.
 5. DISCUSSION
The results of the study presented in the previous chapter are discussed in this
chapter under the following headings.
5.1 Temporal changes in land use pattern in Karnataka
5.2 Dynamics of land use pattern in Karnataka
5.3 Instability of land use pattern
5.4 Causes for temporal changes in land use pattern
5.5 Impact of changes in land use pattern on cropping intensity
5.6 Factor influencing cropping intensity
5.7 Ecological implications of land use dynamics in Karnataka

5.1 Temporal changes in land use pattern in Karnataka

The study on the temporal changes in land uses over the period gives the scope for
planned use of available land. The results of the analysis are discussed below.
5.1.1 Land use pattern in Karnataka
Land use pattern in Karnataka with their share to total reported area was calculated
to examine the extent of land allocated under different types of land use classes in the state
and is presented in Table 4.1. A perusal of the table showed that there was a marginal
increase in share of forest area from 15.92 per cent in 1980-81 to 16.13 per cent in 2007-08,
which is far below the norms set under the National Forest Policy (1952) envisaging about
one-third of the geographical area under forest for ecological regions. Goswami and Challa
(2004) found a similar trend while studying Indian land use scenario. The share of barren and
uncultivable land has declined over time. The share of land put to non-agricultural uses
increased substantially over the years due to increasing in demand for land for industrial,
housing and infrastructure developments. Ramasamy et al. (2005) and Bardhan and Tewari
(2010) found the similar trends while studying the share of different land use categories. The
permanent pastures and other grazing lands, cultivable wastes and land under miscellaneous
tree crops and groves showed the declining shares due to increase in demand for bringing
more area under agriculture uses to meet mounting requirement of food grains and to meet
the need for land put to non-agricultural uses consequent to increase in population. Moreover,
the share has declined sharply in case of permanent pastures and other grazing land. Even
though the share of current fallows showed declining share, it mainly depends on rainfall
distribution and was most instable land use category. Fallows other than current fallow
showed irregular trend in share over the years. The net sown area showed an increasing
share upto 1994-95 and thereafter showed stagnant share, which could be due to limitation of
bringing more and more area under agriculture as a result of larger demand for land for non-
agricultural uses.
5.1.2 Changes in land use pattern in Karnataka
The average area under different land use categories and the percentage changes
(Table 4.2) in the Period-II over Period-I showed that the area under barren and uncultivable
land, permanent pastures and cultivable wastes, miscellaneous tree crops and groves and
net sown area have decreased considerably during the study period. There was remarkable
increase in the land put to non-agricultural uses in the Period-II as compared to the Period-I.
This shift towards land put to non-agricultural uses was mainly attributed to the increase in
demand for land for industrial uses, development of infrastructure, urbanization and housing.
The decline in barren and uncultivable lands could be due to the increasing pressure on land
caused by increase in population and increasing demand for land for non-agricultural
purposes. The sharp decline in common lands (permanent pastures and grazing land,
cultivable wastes and land under miscellaneous tree crops and groves) which might be due to
the increasing population pressure especially on common lands, which are more prone for
encroachment and privatization.
 There was a decline in the net sown area (2.09 per cent) during Period-II which was
reflected by a sharp rise (20.78 per cent) in current fallows. This could be generally due to
variability in the rainfall distribution pattern in the state as a large proportion of the cultivated
land is predominantly rainfed. Harish (2006) also reported the decrease in net sown area
followed by sharp increased in current fallows while, studying the land use dynamics in
Mandya district in Karnataka. As considerable increase in the total cropped area in the state
during Period-II over Period-I has been substantially influenced by an increase (35.65 per
cent) in the area sown more than once. This was mainly because of expansion in irrigation,
mechanization in agriculture and intensification in cropping and adoption of new production
technology related to short duration varieties and use of agro-chemicals.
5.1.3 Growth rates in area under different land use categories
Growth rates were worked out for state level on land use pattern to get a more
detailed picture on spatial and temporal dimensions of the dynamics of land use pattern in the
state. The results (Table 4.3) showed the growth rate in forest cover, barren and uncultivable
land, land put to non-agricultural uses, permanent pastures and other grazing land, cultivable
wastes, land under miscellaneous tree crops and groves, current fallows, fallows other than
current fallow, net area sown, area sown more than once and total cropped area.
The study revealed that there was a marginal increase in the forest area in the state
due to the afforestation efforts undertaken by government in both the periods and
consequently for entire period. Ramasamy et al. (2005) reported the similar results of
increase in area under forest while studying the dynamics of land use pattern in Tamil Nadu.
Despite the fact that forest area has shown an increase, it is still far below the norms set
under the National Forest Policy (1952) and it is unlikely to reach the target set by the New
forest policy (1998). The government and non-governmental organizations with public
partnership should implement strong afforestation and efficient forest resource management
programmes to bring in the desired result in enhancing the forest area in the state.
Land under non-agricultural uses showed a sizeable increase in its area. This was
mainly because of rapid growth in urbanization and industrialization in the state consequent
increase in population pressure in both periods as well as in the overall period. Similar trend
of increase in the area with respect to land put to non-agricultural uses was witnessed in the
study conducted at the by Wani et al. (2009) in Jammu and Kashmir and at the all India level
by Bardhan and Tewari (2010). On the other hand, area under barren and uncultivable land
has shown a declining trend because most of the barren and uncultivable lands were diverted
for non-agricultural uses after its development through reclamation measures. Goswami and
Challa (2004) and Aravind (2010) also noticed the similar results in their studies.
The result of the current study also revealed that the area under current fallows
showed a significant positive growth in the state for the entire period. This consequently lead
to decline in the net sown area as parts of the Karnataka state falls under dry zone which is
more prone to frequent draughts as a result of year to year variations in rainfall pattern
thereby showing inverse relationship between rainfall and current fallows. The result of the
present study is corroborated with the study conducted by Rajesh and Ramasamy (1998),
Sreeja (2004) and Goswami and Challa (2006).
There was a considerable decrease in the fallows other than current fallow in Period-I
thereby it indicated the cultivators awareness about the profitability land use options. In
addition to this, the length of the roads is found to have a negative effect on the extent of
fallows other than current fallows and was mainly because of the extension of road facilities in
rural areas to facilitate better access to markets and to provide impetus to agricultural
development. Hence, this could be another reason for decline in older fallows in the state
during first period. Ramasamy et al. (2005) reported similar results while studying the
dynamics of land use pattern with special reference to older fallows lands in Tamil Nadu. The
increased growth in the fallows other than current fallows in the second period might be due
to increase in non-agricultural income, scarcity of labour in agriculture and a high demand for
land under non-agricultural uses consequent to high land price.
 The area under permanent pastures and other grazing lands, cultivable wastes and
land under miscellaneous tree crops and groves which is not included in the net sown area
decreased significantly over the two study periods and for the overall period, implying the
diversion of the area from these categories to other purposes. The results obtained are in line
with the results reported by Wani et.al, (2009) while studying land use dynamics in Jammu
and Kashmir. The declining trend in these categories might be due to the increasing demand
for urbanization and infrastructure development as a result of population pressure and
besides, increasing demand for land for agriculture, especially the common lands (Permanent
pasture and other grazing lands, cultivable wastes and land under miscellaneous tree crops
and groves) which often are more prone to encroachment and privatization. The results of the
present study corroborated with the study conducted by Ramasamy et al. (2005) while
studying the dynamics of land use pattern Tamil Nadu. Apart from this, decline in such land
categories could be due to diversion to non-agricultural purposes.
The results of analysis on net area sown revealed that the area in this category has
increased substantially during the first period. This was mainly because of extensive
cultivation over the years and diversion of land from common lands (Permanent pasture and
other grazing lands, cultivable wastes and land under miscellaneous tree crops and groves),
current fallows and fallows other than current fallow. Pandey and Tewari (1996) also found
similar increase in net sown area in Karnataka. However, area sown more than once also
showed a substantial growth implying an improvement in the management of production
technology on cultivable lands over a period of time and possibly due to the expansion in
irrigation, accompanied by adoption of improved and shot duration varieties, intensification in
the use of chemicals and fertilizers, agricultural services extension and development of the
new machineries in farming. Similarly, total cropped area also increased substantially in the
state during Period-I and for the entire period. The increase in total cropped area was on
account of the increase in area sown more than once during these periods.

5.2 Dynamics of land use pattern in Karnataka

The finite Markov chain stochastic process has been used in the analysis of land use
dynamics for which particular time ordered data are available. The Markov chain analysis has
been widely used in studying agricultural problems in recent years. The domain of application
of Markov chain included size wise distribution of farms, structural changes in dairy industries
and analysis of market and export shares. In the present study, an attempt has been made to
apply Markov chain analysis to study the dynamics of land use pattern in Karnataka state
using macro data on area under different categories of land use over time.
The results of Markov chain analysis (Table 4.4) indicated that except the land not
available for cultivation all other land use categories showed some stability in Period-I. Other
uncultivated land excluding fallow land showed highest stability by retaining most of its
previous year shares’. The major competing land use categories for other uncultivated land
excluding fallow were forest land and fallow land. This land use category also gained some
share of fallow land and net sown area.
Area under forest was found to be more stable (68.90 per cent) next to other
uncultivated land excluding fallow. It lost some portion of its previous years’ share to the net
sown area. The major sources from where it gained were net sown area, other uncultivated
land excluding fallow and fallow land. This could be due to afforestation programmes
undertaken by the government.
Net sown area could retain 64.80 per cent of its previous years’ share. The major
competing land use categories for the net sown area were land not available for cultivation
(16.60 per cent), fallow land (10.30 per cent), forest (7.40 per cent) and other uncultivated
land excluding fallow. The major sources from where net sown area gained were forest (31.10
per cent) and fallow land (54.40 per cent) which included current fallows shift towards net
sown area due to favorable rainfall distribution.
Fallow land retained 15.90 per cent of its previous years’ share. The major competing
land use for this category were net sown area (54.40 per cent), land not available for
cultivation (15.00 per cent), other uncultivated land excluding fallow (10.10 per cent) and
forest. It gained some share of net sown area (10.30 per cent) and other uncultivated land
excluding fallow (9.10 per cent).
 The land not available for cultivation was highly unstable and lost 100 per cent of its
previous years’ share to net sown area. This category also included land under barren and
uncultivable type that could have been shifted towards net sown area after reclamation.
Goswami and Challa (2004) reported a similar result while studying the Indian land use
scenario.
The analysis of the land use dynamics in Period-II (Table 4.5) indicated that the forest
showed similar stability as in the first period. On the contrary, against high instability in
Period-I, land not available for cultivation showed highest stability in Period-II. Other
uncultivated land was found to be stable in Period-II and was almost comparable with its
similar share in Period-I. The fallow land which was less stable in Period-I became highly
unstable in the Period-II. The major competing land use category was net sown area. This
revealed that with better rainfall distribution there could be diversion of fallow land to net sown
area to a larger extent.
In the second period, net area sown gained from fallow land and forest land.
However, the major competing land use category for net area sown area was fallow land.
The shares of different land use categories were predicted for next five years (2008-
09 to 2012-13) by using transition probabilities and are presented in Table 4.6.
The results implied that the area under other uncultivated land excluding fallow land,
fallow land and net sown area are likely to lose their share in the coming years. The area
under forest and land not available for cultivation are likely to retain their share in the future.
Thus, these results imply clearly that in the years to come there would be a very high
pressure towards land put to non-agricultural uses due to increasing population demands.
This is of much concern especially in respect of losing shares in case of net sown area.
Tables 4.7 and 4.8 and (Fig. 4 to 8) indicated the actual and estimated proportion of
the land use categories in Karnataka state. A comparison of these proportions revealed that
the actual and estimated proportions are almost same in case of forest, land not available for
cultivation and other uncultivated land excluding fallow except some variation in fallow land
and net sown area implying that the model was reasonably efficient and the structural
changes in the land use pattern captured were fairly accurate.

5.3 Instability of land use pattern

Instability index is a measure of extent of variability or the absence of stability in time
series data and hence the instability indices for various land use categories were worked out
for Period-I, Period-II and for overall 28 years (1980-81 to 2007-08) and results are presented
in Table 4.9.
It could be observed from the aforesaid table that the instability index was highest for
current fallows (14.24, 16.92 and 17.00) followed by fallows other than current fallow lands
(6.48, 6.58 and 9.99) in both the periods and for the entire period too. This might be due to
variations in rainfall and its distribution pattern as many of the areas in Karnataka falls under
dry regions. Similar trend of high instability indices was noticed by Ramasamy et al. (2005) in
Tamil Nadu. Permanent pastures and other grazing lands also showed a considerable degree
of instability which is due to the diversion of common land from this category to non-
agricultural uses due to increase in population density. The instability for other land use
categories varied from 0.050 to 2.642 per cent and this indicated relatively a lower variability
in these land uses.

5.4 Causes for temporal changes in land use pattern

The multiple linear regression analysis was carried out to identify the causes or
factors responsible for temporal changes in land use pattern in Karnataka for the period from
1980-81 to 2007-08, and is presented in Table 4.10.
Forest area was positively influenced by literacy and negatively influenced by
population density which implied that as literacy rate increased, the area under forest also
increased which was due to growing awareness about ecology, climate change and
development in the concept of forest management through afforestation progarammes.
 On the contrary, increase in population density lead to decrease in forest area
because of encroachment of forest land by private individuals and to use land for cultivation.
Besides this, population density necessitates urbanization and industrial process which
created heavy dependence on forest and its resources for development.
Barren and uncultivable land was negatively related with literacy and the number of
factories. The increase in literacy rate and increasing demand of the population enhanced the
diversion of this category of land into non-agricultural uses and for agricultural purposes after
reclamation. Goswami and Challa (2004) reported the similar result while studying the Indian
land use scenario. Besides this with increase in literacy rate accompanied by awareness
among people might have lead to diversion of this category of land for afforestation. Similarly,
the barren land could be utilized for development of infrastructure, urbanization and
industrialization.
Land put to non-agricultural uses was negatively related with road length and
positively with population density. As population per square kilometer increased, the area
under land put to non-agricultural uses also increased to meet increasing demand for
urbanization by diverting land from other uses. It implied that population density and land put
to non-agricultural uses were positively associated with each other.
The land under permanent pastures and grazing land showed a negative relationship
with literacy. This was mainly attributed to the fact that with improvement in literacy rate
permanent pastures and other grazing lands have diverted to better land use options for
economic gain.
Land under cultivable wastes was positively related with population density and
negatively related with literacy and factories. Many studies reported that the cultivable wastes
are negatively related with population pressure. On the contrary, the present study showed
positive relationship which existed between the two might be due to increased opportunities of
income from non-agricultural sources, labour scarcity and displacement of population
especially the younger generation from agriculture to other occupations. Land under cultivable
wastes was negatively related with literacy because with the increase in awareness among
the people, expansion in irrigation facilities and spread of improved technology, more area is
diverted towards the net sown area due to expansion in demand to feed the growing
population. Similarly, the cultivable waste was found negative response with number of
factories. This is invariably because of the fact that people tend to use cultivable wastes of
low economic value to develop the infrastructure and industries rather than diverting fertile
lands. Hence, there is an inverse relationship between cultivable wastes and number of
factories.
Land under miscellaneous tree crops and groves showed a negative relationship with
number of land holdings. Increase in the number of land holding could be attributed to
increased population pressure on land and such pressure would exert influence towards
diversion of land from miscellaneous tree crops and groves to more productive and economic
ventures under agricultural enterprises and thereby result into decline in area under this
category.
Land under current fallows was negatively related with net irrigated area. Irrigated
area is found to have a strong negative relation with the area under fallow lands mainly
because expansion of irrigation facilities eventually would reduce instability in the cropped
area. Ramasamy et al. (2005) reported the similar results while studying the dynamics of land
use pattern with special reference to fallow lands in Tamil Nadu. Beside this, the extent of
current fallows is generally attributed to variation in the year to year rainfall distribution pattern
and prevalence of drought conditions.
The fallows other than current fallow or other fallows or older fallows was found to be
negatively related with literacy rate and net irrigated area and also revealed a positive
relationship with road length. This decrease in other fallows with increase in literacy is an
indicator of cultivators’ awareness to put such lands under better and economical land use
options. The decrease in other fallows with increase in net irrigation area is due to extension
of irrigation facilities.
 The length of the road found to have positive relationship with other fallows and might
be due to an increase in the exchangeable value in and around consequently set the trend for
increase in the area under other fallows. Contrary to this, the study by Ramasamy et al.
(2005) observed negative relationship between road length and other fallows.
The net sown area was found to be positively related with net irrigated area with
increased irrigation facilities more and more area under current fallows, fallows other than
current fallow and cultivable wastes was brought under cultivation and thereby lead to an
increase in net sown area.
The adequacy of the model for the respective series for the independent variables
2
included in the analysis was indicted by the coefficient of multiple determination. The R
varied from 0.660 to 0.990 which testified to the adequacy of the model. In the majority of land
use categories, a large part of the variation in land use change was explained by the variables
included in the model.

5.5 Impact of changes in land use pattern on cropping intensity

To identify the impact of changes in land use pattern on cropping intensity, multiple
regression of double log form was employed for the period from 1980-81 to 2007-08 where,
the cropping intensity was regressed with all land use categories which are area under forest,
barren and uncultivable land, land put to non-agricultural uses, land under permanent
pastures and other grazing lands, cultivable wastes, land under miscellaneous tree crops and
groves, current fallows, fallows other than current fallow and net sown area.
The results (Table 4.11) revealed that the land put to non-agricultural uses and
fallows other than current fallow are the land use categories which could influence
2
significantly to the cropping intensity. The R value was found to be 0.961 which indicated that
the variables specified in the model could together explain more than 95 per cent of the
variation in the cropping intensity.
The cropping intensity was influenced positively by changes in the area put to non-
agricultural uses, Wani et al. (2009) reported the similar results while studying the
determinants of productive land utilization in Jammu and Kashmir. Similarly, fallows other
than current fallow showed a positive influence on cropping intensity. This was mainly
because with increase in population pressure and correspondingly the diversion of cultivable
land to non-agricultural activities and an increase in fallows other than current fallow lead to
the need for increasing cropping intensity to feed the growing population. Besides this, net
irrigated area, rainfall pattern, literacy rate also determines the cropping intensity. Except
these i.e., land put to non-agricultural uses, and fallows other than current fallow, all other
variables were unable to exert any significant effect on the cropping intensity.

5.6 Factor influencing cropping intensity

Factor influencing cropping intensity was studied by using multiple regression of
double log form, where the cropping intensity was regressed with net irrigated area, area not
available for cultivation, literacy rate, and average size of holding.
The response of cropping intensity to the above said variables has been analyzed for
the state as a whole (Table 4.12). The results indicated that the net irrigated area influenced
significantly in cropping intensity than any other variables. The regression coefficient of net
irrigated area (0.240) signified that with increase in land under irrigation promoted to an
increase the cropping intensity. The irrigation is a critical input for promoting intensive
cropping; therefore there is a need to expand area under irrigation in the state, particularly
where they are much needed. The results of the present study are in agreement with the
study conducted by Wani et al. (2009). The other variables included such as the area not
available for cultivation showed a positive influence, as with increased population pressure
and consequent urbanization and industrialization lead to an increase in cropping intensity on
the area left for cultivation. However, literacy rate and average size of the holding showed
negative influence on cropping intensity as against positive influence observed in the study
carried out by Wani et al. (2009). Except net irrigated area, other variable were unable to
exert any significant effect on cropping intensity.
 The R2 value was found to be 0.951 which indicated that the variables specified in the
model could explain more than 95 per cent of the variation in cropping intensity.

5.7 Ecological implications of land use dynamics in Karnataka

5.7.1 Intra-sectoral dynamics of land use in Karnataka
Table 4.13 elicits the annual rate of change in various land use categories for the
period (1980-81 to 2007-08).
In all periods it could be observed that except forest, land shifts have been taken
place from all ecological sub-sectors to the other sectors namely agricultural sector and non-
agricultural sector. While, the decline in barren and uncultivable land is desirable, at the same
time, the decline in permanent pastures and other grazing land and area under miscellaneous
tree crops and groves is a matter of concern. (Sharma and Pandey, 1992) and (Bardhan and
Tewari, 2010) found similar shifts from ecological sub-sectors from barren and uncultivable
land, permanent pastures and other grazing land and miscellaneous tree crops and groves to
other sectors when analyzed for the entire India. In the first period the results revealed that
decline in the area permanent pastures and other grazing land and area under miscellaneous
tree crops and groves have contributed towards the net sown area, which is reflected by a
huge increase in the net sown area in the period. In the agricultural sector, except net sown
area all other sub-sectors of land use have declined in first period while, In second period,
except current fallows and fallows other than current fallow, the area in the other sub-sectors
such as net sown area and cultivable wastes have declined, similar results were reported
(Bardhan and Tewari, 2010) in Karnataka while studying the changes in land use classes for
post liberalization period. The analysis of the agricultural sector for entire period showed that
except for fallows other than current fallow, the lands from other sub-sectors have declined.
Changes in other land use classes within the agricultural sector revealed that cultivable
wastes have declined, while, the other fallows have increased consistently. The decline in
cultivable wastes points towards the beneficial effects of waste land development through
reclamation efforts from time to time. Decrease in area under cultivable wastes (2,904 ha)
due to reclamation efforts instead of increasing net sown area witnessed a considerable
decline in its area (6,784 ha). This decrease in the net sown area was further off-set by
substantial increase in the area under fallows other than current fallow (15,716 ha) and land
put to non-agricultural uses (10,447 ha) during the entire period. This was largely attributed to
increased demand for land under non-agricultural uses in wake of urbanization and
industrialization in the state.
5.7.2 Budgeting of inter-sectoral land use shift in Karnataka
The possible land use shifts within the ecological sector may occur as follows. The
land use shifts from miscellaneous tree crops and groves and permanent pastures and other
grazing land to the forest which has no adverse ecological implications as it promote
ecological concerns. The shift from forest to permanent pastures and other grazing land,
which may possibly occur in some hills, does have some adverse ecological implications. The
shift from barren and uncultivable to forest has favorable ecological consequences. However,
the shift from forest and miscellaneous tree crops and groves to barren and uncultivable land
will have serious adverse ecological effects.
The inter-sectoral budgeting analysis was carried out to find the pattern and extent of
dynamics in land use shift in the state (Table 4.14)
It has been observed that land use shift has occurred from desirable ecology (E1) and
undesirable ecology (E2) sectors to agricultural as well as non-agricultural sector. The
magnitude of decline in area in both the desirable and undesirable ecological sectors found to
be very large in first period as compared to the second period and the similar trend of decline
in overall period was noticed. These shifts from desirable ecological sector to other sectors
require immediate check.
In the first period, 65 per cent (17,542 ha) of the ecological sector diverted to
agricultural sector and rest 35 per cent (9,291 ha) shifted to non-agricultural sector. In the
period- II, 18 per cent (1,922 ha) of the ecological sector diverted to agricultural sector and
rest 82 per cent (8,929 ha) diverted to non-agricultural sector.
 For the entire period, 35 per cent (5,600 ha) shifted to agricultural sector and rest 65
per cent (10,447 ha) of ecological sector shifted to non-agricultural sector. These sectoral
land use shifts towards the non-agricultural sector can be attributed to urban and industrial
expansion, the other part is due to the expansion in irrigation networks, rural roads, market
yards, etc., which basically form the supporting infrastructures for agricultural growth.
The land use shift from desirable ecological sector to other sectors will have serious
economic as well as ecological implications. These patterns of land shifts, particularly the shift
from desirable ecological sub-sector to non agricultural sector needs to be checked in
Karnataka. Sharma and Pandey (1992) and Bardhan and Tewari (2010) also reported that
land use shift from desirable ecological sector to other sectors while studying the dynamics of
land use in different states of India and considered as unfavorable dynamics which need to be
controlled.
The unfavorable declining trend of desirable and undesirable ecological sectors
(together ecological sector) and the vicious land use dynamics lead to the degeneration of
this important natural resource and hence need to be controlled.
 6. SUMMARY AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS
The information on land use pattern is necessary to develop future strategies on land
use planning and land use policies. The variable under consideration put forth and propels to
evolve appropriate policy decisions. The paucity of land indicates the difficulty of choice of
land and its uses. Economic wisdom requires the optimum utilization of land to take full
advantage of the welfare of the society by meeting diverse needs. The land use pattern is
ultimately bent by a host of factors like physical, human, technological, socio-economic,
political and institutional. Examination of structural changes in the land use pattern over a
period of time provides scope for planned and judicious management of land. Rational
management of land resources plays a crucial role in developing the national economy.
Keeping this in view an attempt has been made in this study to analyze the land use
dynamics in Karnataka for 28 years with the following objectives.
1. To analyze temporal changes in land use pattern in Karnataka
2. To find out the causes for temporal changes in land use pattern
3. To study the impact of changes in land use pattern on cropping intensity
4. To analyze the ecological implications of land use dynamics in Karnataka
For evaluating the objectives of the study, secondary data were collected from
various issues of Karnataka at a glance and statistical abstract Karnataka. The analysis was
carried out for the entire state.
Tabular analysis was used for the presentation of some secondary data such as
share of land use categories and changes in land use pattern.
Compound growth rates for area under different land use categories were computed
by estimating the exponential growth model.
The Markov chain analysis was employed to study the dynamics of land use pattern
for two period viz., Period-I (1980-81 to 1994-95) and Period-II (1995-96 to 2007-08).
Instability index was carried out to examine the extent of variability or the absence of
stability for various land use categories.
The reasons responsible for major changes in the area under different land use
categories, impact of changes in land use pattern on cropping intensity and factor influencing
cropping intensity were identified by using multiple linear regression analysis.
Annual rate of change was worked out and budgeted to analyze the sectoral changes
in land use category to gain knowledge in ecological implications of land use categories.

Findings of the study

1. Share of different land use categories in Karnataka
The study has revealed a marginal increase in share of forest and the share of barren
and uncultivable land has declined. The share of land put to non-agricultural uses has
increased substantially over the years. The permanent pastures and other grazing lands,
cultivable wastes and land under miscellaneous tree crops and groves showed the declining
shares to meet the mounting requirement of food grains and to meet the need for land put to
non-agricultural uses. Moreover, the share has declined sharply in case of permanent
pastures and other grazing land. Current fallows showed the declining trend in share while,
fallows other than current fallow showed irregular share over the years. The net sown area
showed an increasing share up to Period-I and thereafter showed stagnant share.
2. Changes in land use pattern over two periods in Karnataka
Percentage changes in the land use pattern between two periods showed that,
current fallows exhibited a sharp rise 20.78 per cent. Study found a remarkable increase in
the land put to non-agricultural uses in the second period as compared to the first period.
 There was considerable decrease in the area under barren and uncultivable land,
permanent pastures and other grazing lands, cultivable wastes, miscellaneous tree crops and
groves and net sown area.
3. Growth rates in area under different land use categories in Karnataka
Growth rate estimated for forest revealed that there was a marginal increase in the
area under forest, considerable growth in land put to non-agricultural uses and area sown
more than once in all the periods. The area under barren and uncultivable land permanent
pastures and other grazing lands, cultivable wastes and land under miscellaneous tree crops
and groves showed significantly negative growth over the two study periods and also for the
entire period, implying that the area under these categories was diverted to other purposes.
Current fallows witnessed a significant positive growth in the state for the entire period. The
fallows other than current fallow showed a negative growth in Period-I and positive growth in
period-II. Net sown area showed considerable positive growth in Period-I. Total cropped area
showed significant growth in first and entire periods.
4. Dynamics of land use pattern in Karnataka
Dynamics of land use pattern was studied by Markov chain analysis and the results
showed that except the area under land not available for cultivation, all other categories
showed stability in the Period-I. However, in Period-II except fallow land, all other categories
have shown stability in retaining their previous year’s shares. Forest area showed similar
stability in both the periods. Other uncultivated land was found to be stable in Period-II and
was almost comparable with its share in Period-I.
5. Instability of land use pattern
The instability index was found highest for current fallows followed by fallows other
than current fallow lands in both the periods and for the entire period too. This might be due to
variations in rainfall and its distribution pattern as many areas in Karnataka falls under dry
regions. Permanent pastures and other grazing land also showed considerable degree of
instability. The instability for other land use categories varied from 0.050 to 2.642 per cent and
this indicated relatively a lower variability in these land uses.
6. Causes for temporal changes in land use pattern
Multiple linear regressions were employed to know the factors responsible for
changes in land use pattern. The results revealed that the major factors responsible for the
changes in land use pattern over years were net irrigated area, road length, population
density, literacy rate, number of factories and number of land holdings.
7. Impact of changes in land use pattern on cropping intensity
Multiple linear regression of double log form was employed to analyze the impact of
changes in land use pattern on cropping intensity. The results revealed that the land put to
non-agricultural uses and fallows other than current fallow were the land use categories which
exerted pressure on cropping intensity.
8. Factor influencing cropping intensity
Multiple linear regression of double log form was employed to examine the productive
land utilization and found that net irritated area was the major determining factor for cropping
intensity.
9. Intra-sectoral dynamics of land use in Karnataka
Inter-sectoral land use dynamics revealed that land shifts have taken place from all
ecological sub-sectors to the other sectors except forests in the all periods. In the agricultural
sector, except net sown area all other sub-sectors of land use have declined in first period
while, in second period, except current fallows and fallows other than current fallow, the area
in the other sub-sectors have declined. In the overall period land shift have been taken place
from all agricultural sub-sectors, except fallows other than current fallow.
10. Inter-sectoral land use shift in Karnataka
It has been observed that land use shift has been occurring from desirable ecology
(E1) and undesirable ecological (E2) sectors to agricultural as well as non-agricultural sector.
The magnitude of decline in area in both the desirable and undesirable ecological sectors
found to be very large in first period as compared to the second period and the similar trend of
decline in overall period was noticed.

Policy implications
The present study has suggested the following policy options that could be
considered for the better management of land resources of the state. The findings could be
utilized for evolving long term measures for sustainable land use by planners, policy makers,
other agencies and institutions. The agriculture being one of the most important sector
necessitates appropriate policy vision to redeem the agricultural sector from the stagnation
and instability and put it on the stream of sustainable growth on the one hand and to assert
the ongoing tendency of the large-scale commercialization of agriculture. The implications of
the study are briefly presented below.
1) The forest cover in the state is about 16.13 per cent which is far below the minimum
suggested level of at least one-third of the geographical area. Efforts to bring more
area under forest could be intensified by afforestation on barren and uncultivable
lands as 4.14 per cent of the land is under this category in the state. The government
and non-governmental organizations with public partnership should implement a
strong afforestation and efficient forest resource management programmes to
enhance the forest cover of the state.
2) The horizontal expansion of the area under agricultural uses has limitations.
However, there is a scope to explore new cultivable area by diverting possibly 4.83
per cent area from cultivable wastes and fallows other than current fallow. Further,
the land use policies of the state should ensure that the pressure on cultivable area
for want of land for other non-agricultural uses to be regulated from view point of long
term food security reasons.
3) The high instability index for current fallows is mainly due to variation in rainfall
pattern and its distribution, which could be minimized by expansion and stabilization
of area under irrigation in the state. Therefore, stabilization of irrigated acreage is
perhaps more important step to ensure better utilization of land resources.
4) The sharp decline in area (16,070 ha annually) under ecological sector and its
consequent shift towards agricultural as well as non-agricultural sectors is witnessed.
In recent years such shift is more intense towards the non-agricultural sector (8,929
ha annually) which is happening at the cost of ecological sector. This serious
ecological implication which needs to be carefully viewed by the planners. Such shifts
from ecological sector to other sectors needs immediate attention and this could be
achieved by using land for non-agricultural uses vertically than through horizontal
expansion to cope up with the increasing demand of urbanization and
industrialization.
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Appendix I: Compound growth function for different land use category for Period-I (1980-
81 to 1994-95)

2
Land use category CGR a b R F t

Forest 0.13* 8.02 0.00 0.87 85.29 9.24

Barren and uncultivable land -0.36* 6.73 0.00 0.71 31.46 -5.61

Land put to non agriculture use 0.81* 7.00 0.01 0.91 124.50 11.16

Permanent pastures and other grazing lands -2.28* 7.22 -0.02 0.83 63.60 -7.97

Cultivable wastes -0.97* 6.22 -0.01 0.89 107.04 -10.35

Miscellaneous tree crops and groves -0.59* 5.84 -0.01 0.54 15.51 -3.94

Current fallows -0.59 7.09 -0.01 0.03 0.45 -0.67

Fallows other than current fallow -1.76* 6.24 -0.02 0.62 21.51 -4.64

Net area sown 0.37* 9.23 0.00 0.42 9.57 3.09

Area sown more than once 7.00* 6.53 0.07 0.87 88.64 9.41

Total cropped area 0.99* 9.29 0.01 0.75 39.60 6.29

Note: * significance at 1 per cent level

 Appendix II: Compound growth function for different land use category for Period-II
(1995-96 to 2007-08)

2
Land use category CGR a b R F t

Forest 0.03* 8.03 0.00 0.87 71.39 8.45

Barren and uncultivable land -0.16* 6.69 0.00 0.81 45.73 -6.76

Land put to non agriculture use 0.68* 7.14 0.01 0.98 594.29 24.38

Permanent pastures and other grazing -0.83* 6.93 -0.01 0.93 153.21 -12.38
lands

Cultivable wastes -0.57* 6.10 -0.01 0.95 193.46 -13.91

Miscellaneous tree crops and groves -0.80* 5.77 -0.01 0.95 209.79 -14.48

Current fallows 0.54 7.23 0.01 0.02 0.18 0.42

Fallows other than current fallow 1.87* 5.97 0.02 0.55 13.66 3.70

Net area sown -0.12 9.24 0.00 0.03 0.35 -0.59

Area sown more than once 3.57* 7.30 0.04 0.60 16.30 4.04

Total cropped area 0.47 9.37 0.00 0.19 2.50 1.58

Note: * significance at 1 per cent level

Appendix III: Compound growth function for different land use category for overall period
(1980-81 to 2007-08)

2
Land use category CGR a b R F t

Forest 0.04* 8.02 0.00 0.46 22.45 4.74

Barren and uncultivable land -0.19* 6.71 0.00 0.72 66.06 -8.13

Land put to non agriculture use 0.85* 6.99 0.01 0.98 1239.18 35.20

Permanent pastures and other grazing lands -1.27* 7.14 -0.01 0.81 113.65 -10.66

Cultivable wastes -0.64* 6.19 -0.01 0.91 267.84 -16.37

Miscellaneous tree crops and groves -0.59* 5.84 -0.01 0.87 170.75 -13.07

Current fallows 1.20* 6.98 0.01 0.26 9.17 3.03

Fallows other than current fallow -0.08 6.11 0.00 0.00 0.13 -0.36

Net area sown -0.07 9.26 0.00 0.04 1.07 -1.03

Area sown more than once 3.98* 6.73 0.04 0.82 118.32 10.88

Total cropped area 0.41* 9.33 0.00 0.44 20.77 4.56

Note: * significance at 1 per cent level

 LAND USE DYNAMICS IN KARNATAKA - AN
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
SAMAYA GAIRHE 2011 DR. G. N. KULKARNI
MAJOR ADVISOR
ABSTRACT
Study on land use dynamics in Karnataka was undertaken using 28 years data from
1980-81 to 2007-08. Tabular analysis, growth rate, Markov chain analysis, instability index,
multiple linear regression and annual rate of change were employed to arrive at meaningful
results.

Area under forest showed a marginal increase and a considerable growth in land put
to non-agricultural uses and area sown more than once were observed. Barren and
uncultivated land, permanent pastures, cultivable wastes and miscellaneous tree crops
showed significantly negative growth over study periods. Current fallows witnessed positive
growth for the entire period (1.20 %). The other fallows declined (-1.76 %) in Period-I (1980-
81 to 1994-95) and increased (1.87 %) in Period-II (1995-96 to 2007-08). Net sown area
showed positive growth (0.37 %) in Period-I. Markov chain analysis showed that except land
not available for cultivation, all other categories showed stability in the Period-I. But in Period-
II except fallow land, all other categories have shown stability in retaining their shares. The
instability index was found highest for current fallows followed by other fallows in both the
periods and for entire period too. The results revealed that the major factors responsible for
the changes in land use pattern over years were net irrigated area, road length, population
density, literacy rate, number of factories and number of land holdings. Land put to non-
agricultural uses and other fallows were the land use categories to exert pressure on cropping
intensity. Study noticed that land use shift has been occurring from desirable (14,552 ha) and
undesirable (1,518 ha) ecological sectors towards agricultural (5,600 ha) as well as non-
agricultural sector (10,447 ha) annually. The study suggested to increase forest cover by
afforestation, stabilization of irrigated acreage and to check land shifts from ecological sector
to other sectors.

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