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Reliability Analysis

The alert level is calculated as the mean (X) plus 2.5 times the standard deviation (S). The mean (X) of the premature removals data is 1.41. To calculate the standard deviation (S): 1) Calculate the deviations (X - X) for each data point. 2) Square each deviation. 3) Sum the squared deviations. 4) Divide the sum by n-1, where n is the number of data points. For this data, the sum of squared deviations is 10.94. With 11 data points, n-1 is 10. So the standard deviation S is the square root of the sum of squared deviations / (

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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
67 views31 pages

Reliability Analysis

The alert level is calculated as the mean (X) plus 2.5 times the standard deviation (S). The mean (X) of the premature removals data is 1.41. To calculate the standard deviation (S): 1) Calculate the deviations (X - X) for each data point. 2) Square each deviation. 3) Sum the squared deviations. 4) Divide the sum by n-1, where n is the number of data points. For this data, the sum of squared deviations is 10.94. With 11 data points, n-1 is 10. So the standard deviation S is the square root of the sum of squared deviations / (

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Ferry Setiawan
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• Early air carrier maintenance programs were

based on the belief that each part of an aircraft


required disassembly for inspection.

• Time limitations were established for servicing,


checks and inspections and the entire aircraft
was disassembled.

• This process is known as “HARD TIME”


• Industry grew and matured.

• A second primary maintenance process was


developed called “ON-CONDITION”

• A component’s airworthiness can be


determined by scheduled inspection; such as
visual, measurement or other tests that does
not require disassembly.
• This new method was called “reliability
control”

• “Reliability Control” is a system that monitors


and maintains component “failure rates” below
a predetermined value.

• Components and systems that were not


assigned a primary maintenance process.
• ..of either “Hard Time” (HT) or “On-
Condition” (OC) were assigned a primary
maintenance process called “Condition
Monitoring” (CM)

• A component or system maintained under CM


has no scheduled servicing or inspection to
determine the airworthiness of the item.
• Each operator is different.

• The operator’s operational environment


will be reflected in his reliability
program.
• There are four (4) general categories of an
operator’s maintenance program.

• “Systems/components”

• “Powerplants/components”

• “Aircraft/engine Checks And Inspections”

• “Structural Inspection/overhaul”
• All four groups can be controlled by a
composite program or each may be handled
separately.

• For example: the basic engine may be


maintained on “HT” and the the engine
accessories may be controlled by “OC” or the
entire engine may be on “HT”
• Hard-Time (HT)
• On-Condition (OC)
• Condition-Monitoring (CM)
• A preventive • It may require that
maintenance process the unit be
• It requires that a withdrawn from
part be overhauled in service and scrapped,
accordance with a e.g. landing gear
predetermined casting with a life of
period of time, e.g. 10 years
2000 hours.
• A preventive • The purpose of the
maintenance process standard is to
• It requires that a remove the part from
part be periodically service, before
inspected or checked failure, during
against a standard to normal operation
determine whether it occurs.
can stay in service. • MSG 1
• A maintenance • The part or
process where the component is allowed
part or component is to fail.
not being maintained • The failure rate is
by HT or OC. monitored by
statistical analysis.
• MSG 2
• Complex multicell units may be subject to control by
two or three of the primary processes.

• The predominant process will determine its


classification.

• E.g the B747 Modular Package -[Link]. has CM


assigned as the primary maintenance process, but a
leak check is carried out under OC.
• Programs that control engine major overhauls
consider the engine as a hard time unit.

• Whereas, engine sub-assemblies may be


maintained to a “conditional standard” known
as “soft time” or “threshold time”.
Is an On-Condition task to detect
potential failures both applicable and effective?

Yes No

Is a rework task to reduce the failure


rate both applicable and effective?

Yes No

Is a discard task to avoid failures or


reduce the failure rate both applicable and effective?

Yes no

Discard task No scheduled maintenance


SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT
• DATA COLLECTION
• DATA ANALYSIS
• CORRECTIVE ACTION
• PERFORMANCE STANDARDS
• DATA DISPLAY AND REPORT
• MAINTENANCE INTERVAL AND
PROCESS CHANGE
• PROGRAM REVISION
• The system must include a specific flow
of information; identity of data sources,
and procedures for the transmission of
data.
• Responsible persons must be
identified in the organization for each
step.
• Pilot reports • Confirmed failures
• Inflight engine • Functional checks
performance data • Bench checks
• Mechanical delays • Shop findings
• Engine shutdowns • Sampling Inpt.
• Unscheduled • Inspection info
removals • SDR
BASICS OF ANALYSIS
BASIC LOGIC
DATA COLLECTION
• Data analysis is the process of evaluating
mechanical performance data to identify
characteristics indicating a need for program
change etc.

• The initial step is to compare the data to a


standard representing acceptable performance.

• The standard may be a running average,


graphs, charts etc. of any means of depicting a
“norm”
• Alert type programs.
• A performance measurement expressed
numerically in terms of PIREPS, component
failures etc.
• The system uses control limits or alert values
based on accepted statistical methods eg.
Standard deviation
• The standard must be adjustable to meet
seasonal changes etc.
• Non alert type programs
• Data is compiled and used as a basis for
analysis eg. flight log review, engine monitoring
reports, incident reports, component analysis
etc.
• The number and types of information must be
sufficient to provide a basis of analysis
equivalent to the statistical standards program.
• The objective of data analysis is: a) recognize
the need for corrective action, b) establish what
corrective action is needed and c) determine the
effectiveness of that action.
• Corrective Action: The actions taken must
reflect the analysis and be positive enough to
restore performance to an acceptable level in a
reasonable time.
PIREPS
Rate/1000 flight hours

01/1/00 02/1/00 03/1/00 04/1/00 05/1/00 06/1/00 07/1/00 08/1/00 09/1/00 10/1/00 11/1/00 12/1/00 13/1/00 14/1/00 15/1/00 16/1/00
Date
• PIREPS Rate =
• Total PIREPS x 1000
Total Flying Hours Plot Data
eg: ATA 49, August =
34 x 1000
773 (TFH)
= 43.98
Alert level :X +12 S X = Mean.
2
S = St andard deviat ion .
 X  2
 X
S = n = Number readings
n 1
Example calculat ion.
Component –DC-9 Transmit t er, Engine Oil Pressure
Premat ure removals , - 1,2,1,2,1,3,0 ,2,0 ,1,3,1. = 17 each
Previous 12 mont hs.
X 17
= 12 = 1.41

X X
X X - ( X - )2

1 -0 .41 0 .17
2 0 .59 0 .35
1 -0 .41 0 .17
2 0 .59 0 .35
1 -0 .41 0 .17
3 1.59 2.53
0 -1.41 1.99
2 0 .59 0 .35
0 -1.41 1.99
1 0 .41 0 .17
3 1.59 2.53
1 -0 .41 0 .17

 = 10 .94.
10.94
S = = 1 ( very nearly )
11

Alert Level = 1.41 + 2,5 x 1 = 3.91 Use 4.

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