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The document discusses factors that influence labor force participation rates (LFPR). It notes that Alabama's LFPR is markedly lower than the national average at 57.2% compared to 62.6% nationally in 2023. Key factors that can contribute to lower LFPR include increased dependent care needs as childcare costs rise, more men staying out of the workforce long-term for reasons like the war on crime, video games, declines in marriage rates, and impacts of automation and globalization which often affect male-dominated industries more. Addressing these challenges could help boost Alabama's LFPR closer to the national average.

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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
634 views35 pages

API Workforce

The document discusses factors that influence labor force participation rates (LFPR). It notes that Alabama's LFPR is markedly lower than the national average at 57.2% compared to 62.6% nationally in 2023. Key factors that can contribute to lower LFPR include increased dependent care needs as childcare costs rise, more men staying out of the workforce long-term for reasons like the war on crime, video games, declines in marriage rates, and impacts of automation and globalization which often affect male-dominated industries more. Addressing these challenges could help boost Alabama's LFPR closer to the national average.

Uploaded by

Erica Thomas
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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1

Why does Labor Force Participation Matter?

The labor force participation rate (LFPR) is the sum of all those who are either employed or
officially considered unemployed divided by the total population over age 16. In other words,
it is the percentage of the population that is either employed or actively seeking work.
Importantly, that does not include people who would like to work but have given up looking
for a job or those who are incarcerated.1 A 100% LFPR is not realistic, as the number includes
those still in school and those past retirement age. However, a low LFPR is a large factor to
consider when examining the health of an economy for several reasons.

A low LFPR can slow the growth of GDP since fewer people are contributing to the nation’s
output of goods and services. Some economists estimate that a 1% increase in the work hours of
Americans leads to a .7% increase in the GDP and that a 10% increase in the working hours of
Americans would lead to a 7% increase in the GDP.2

Moreover, a low LFPR can lead to a higher dependency ratio, as “the economic returns
generated by fewer workers must be spread more thinly via transfers through government
programs such as Social Security and Medicare, or through family assistance or charity, to
support the growing fraction of the population out of the labor force. As a result, a society
with a lower participation rate is also burdened with higher tax rates because the government
3
has a narrower tax base from which to draw revenue.” A society with a higher LFPR,
therefore, spends less on means-tested programs, such as Medicaid, and has higher tax
revenue.4

An increasing number of discouraged workers no longer seeking employment can also


deflate the unemployment rate, meaning that a falling unemployment rate could indicate
structural weakness in the job market rather than economic health. This is significant when
major economic decisions and opinions are often made by looking at the unemployment rate,
such as the Federal Reserve’s decision on whether to raise interest rates.5

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A low LFPR also signifies that businesses may have to pay higher wages as they compete for
workers in a tight labor market. This could have wide-reaching effects on the costs of goods,
contributing to inflation. The low LFPR and high costs of labor associated with that are
thought to be one of the key factors in the record-setting levels of inflation seen in 2021 and
2022.6

Businesses looking to make decisions on locations and growth may also be discouraged from
selecting a region with a low LFPR. A lack of people in the workforce can mean that their
goals will not be met or that they will be forced to pay higher wages than they would in other
regions, in order to meet their labor needs. Decisions by businesses to be located in regions
with a higher LFPR can mean that the long-term economic development initiatives of both
state and local governments will not be met. 7

An Overview of the Labor Force Participation Rate in Alabama

The national average LFPR was 62.6% in 2023. Alabama’s LFPR in the same year was
57.2%, making it markedly lower than the national average. 8 2023 was not an exception to the
rule for the state, as this trend of a lower LFPR compared to the rest of the nation has been
consistent, as seen below. As of 2023, Alabama had a 3% excess demand for labor.9 In 2023,
there were around 140,000 unfilled jobs.10

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The numbers vary widely across the state. In October of 2023, Barbour County reported a
LFPR of 38.4%, while Washington County reported a LFPR of 72.2%. The numbers saw
improvement over the course of 2023. The state’s LFPR sits at 57.1%, an increase of .4%
since last year. The numbers for the LFPR of prime age workers, ages 25-54, were promising
as well at 78.4% in November, an increase of .3%. This is in comparison to the national
average of 83.3%.11

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4

What is Causing Low Labor Force Participation?

Increased Dependent Care Needs


The leading reason that women stay out of the workforce is because they are caring for others.
This becomes increasingly true when women are married and when they have children.12
Childcare costs have increased significantly since the pandemic in 2020, making the lack of
affordable childcare increasingly significant.13 As people are unable to find childcare, they stay
out of the workforce at higher rates. In 2021, the Federal Reserve found that up to 1/3 of the
parents not participating in the workforce cited the inability to find affordable childcare as a
contributing factor.14

Despite women most often being the ones caring for children at home, women have matched
and exceeded their LFPR from before the costs of childcare rose following the pandemic,
while men have not.15 Data has also shown that men who are not members of the labor force
are spending less time caring for other household members, like children, than men who are
members of the workforce. 16

More Men are Staying Out of the Workforce


The rate of men participating in the workforce has declined for the last 70 years, particularly
among men in their prime working years without a college education.17 Men had a LFPR of
87.4% in 1949, compared to 68.4% in 2023. That number bottomed out at 66.1% in April of
2021.18 Economists do not contribute this to any singular source, instead citing a wide range of
factors like the war on crime, video games, the decline of the nuclear family, automation/
globalization, and the opioid crisis.

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The War on Crime:


After the war on crime in the 80s and 90s, more men were left with criminal records that made
it more difficult for them to secure employment. Between 1980 and 2010, the adult male
population that had received a felony conviction rose from 5.25% to 12.81%.19 Almost 5 times
the number of people are serving life sentences in the U.S. as were in 1984.20 Concerns of
liability, safety, and potential impact on the workplace prevent many felons from being hired.

Video Games:
Video games have become an increasingly popular pastime for men in particular. Princeton
economists estimated that video games were responsible for anywhere from 23% to 46% of
the decline in work hours for young men during the 2000s. The same researchers explain this
phenomenon as the value of leisure time increasing and the value of work decreasing to men.21

The Decline of the Nuclear Family:


Some cite the decline of the nuclear family as a possible cause of the decrease in the male
LFPR. However, fewer than 25% of men not participating in the workforce have a working
spouse, and husbands are more likely to participate in the workforce than men who are not
married.22 Therefore, the data does not support the idea that a working wife has contributed to
a decrease in the male LFPR. The explanation for this is likely what some economists call
“associative mating”, where men and women who are financially successful are more likely to
marry someone else who is financially successful. 23A key factor that cannot be ignored is the
drastic decline in the number of prime working age men that are married though. In 1965,
nearly 85% of prime-aged men were married. This number had tumbled by nearly 30%, as of
2015, persisting regardless of the level of education that a man has received. Moreover,
married men and men with children work longer hours than those who have never been
married or do not have children. The decline of the two-parent household may be a significant
factor in the decrease in the male LFPR.24

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Automation and Globalization:


Automation and globalization are rapidly changing the landscape of the labor force. Its
effects are most likely to hit men rather than women. Occupational gender segregation is still
quite prominent, with women holding 95% of administrative/secretarial jobs and men holding
97% of construction jobs, for example. Therefore, men and women are subject to different
risks of job replacement.25 Men make up nearly 60% of the employees in the industries that
are the most exposed to job insecurity due to automation and globalization. An explanation
for this, in part at least, is centered on the societal norm that men perform more labor-
intensive work like the type that automation is replacing. 26 As evidenced below, the decrease
in demand for manufacturing laborers has hit the least-educated men the hardest, as they
often find themselves with more limited options upon losing their manufacturing jobs than
men with a college degree do.27 As men become significantly less likely to finish college than
women28, this correlation becomes increasingly concerning.

Labor-Force Participation Rates by Education Status, Males Aged 25–54, 1965–2016

Source: Journal of Economic Perspectives

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In Alabama:
Men’s labor force participation in Alabama is almost 6% below the national average.29

War on Crime: Alabama has one of the highest rates of felons and incarcerated individuals per
capita in the country. 938 per 100,000 people are incarcerated, making it more difficult for that
part of the population to find work after being released.30 Drug-related crimes are the leading
convictions in the state, marking the significance of the opioid crisis.31

Automation: In 2023, Alabama lost 4,000 jobs. 47% of those were manufacturing jobs, and
around half of the employers experiencing layoffs have permanently closed or left Alabama.32
Most of the workers laid off were located in Birmingham/Bessemer.

The Opioid Crisis


Some estimates state that as much as 43% of the decline in men’s labor force participation rate
between 1999 and 2015 is due to the opioid crisis. In 2016, a Princeton economist found that
nearly half of the prime-age male workers not in the labor force were taking pain medications
on a daily basis, with 2/3 of those men taking prescription pain medications on a daily basis.

A 10% increase in the amount of opioids prescribed per capita in a county is associated with a
1% increase in the number of people who take pain medication daily. Critically, “the labor
force participation rate fell more in counties where more opioids were prescribed more
frequently”. 33 A 10% increase in the amount of opioids prescribed is associated with a lower
prime-age labor force participation rate of 0.53% for men and 0.10% for women.34

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Source: Brookings Institute

In Alabama
The good news first - opioid prescriptions in Alabama decreased 43.7% and the dosage
strength decreased 55.4% from 2012-2022. Doctors in the state also accessed Alabama’s
Prescription Drug Monitoring Program more than 5.8 million times in 2022 alone.35 However,
in 2021, fentanyl and other opioids were stated as the greatest drug threat by law enforcement.
There is a moderate to high availability of controlled prescription drugs in Alabama according
to the same law enforcement respondents. The overdose rate from fentanyl and other opioids
has increased, and admissions to treatment centers for opioid abuse have skyrocketed, with a
135% increase between 2020 and 2021 alone.36

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Younger People are Staying in School Longer


The teen labor force participation rate reached its peak in 1979 at 57.9%, declining slowly
until 2000, bottoming out at 35%. Much of this is due to the decrease in the number of high
schoolers who are simultaneously enrolled in school and holding a job. From 2000 to 2018,
the share of teenagers working or seeking work while enrolled in school declined by 11.4%.37
Many attribute this to the fact that there is increased pressure to attend college, and that means
that students must have better grades and put more time and effort into their studies.38
Moreover, more teens are choosing to graduate high school, which delays their entrance into
the workforce. In 1990, the high school graduation rate was 73.7%39, and in 2022, it was
79%.40 The rates of teenage employment peak during the Summer months when they are out
of school, at 60.3% in July of 2023, and it hovers in the upper 30s the rest of the year.41

The number of youths going to college, whether that be a 4 or 2-year institution, has declined
slightly in recent years, especially among men, but it is up significantly historically. For
instance, in 1990, 59.9% of high school graduates enrolled in a postsecondary institution, and
in 2022, that number was 62%.42 This often means a delay in joining the workforce, driving
down the LFPR of the group.

In many occupations, the percentage of employees that are overeducated, meaning they have a
more advanced degree than is required for their position, is significant and sometimes reaches as
high as 30% to 40%. This often leads to the worker feeling unfulfilled with their position and a
higher likelihood of quitting the workforce.43

In Alabama:
Alabama’s LFPR of those 16-19 years old is around 5% lower than the national average. The
high school graduation rate has increased drastically from 69.8% in 1990 to 85.8% in 2022.
Alabama lags behind the rest of the country in the number of people seeking bachelor’s
degrees, however, as 26% of the state has a bachelor’s, compared to 41% nationally.

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Higher Unemployment Benefits and the Lasting Impacts of the Pandemic


In 13 states, a family can receive annual unemployment benefits worth more than the median
household income in the area. Those benefits are exempt from payroll taxes, and six states
also exempt them from the respective state income tax. The increase in healthcare subsidies
has also been substantial. As of 2022, “in 29 states, unemployment benefits and Obamacare
subsidies are worth more than the wages and benefits earned by the median firefighter or truck
driver.” 44 There is evidence that increased unemployment benefits decrease the effort that is
made by people in searching for a job45 and increase the length of time that they stay out of
the workforce.46 Workers are 20% more likely to accept jobs in states that have not expanded
unemployment benefits.47

In 2022, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce surveyed Americans who lost their jobs during the
pandemic, and the findings may explain much of the lingering impact of the pandemic on the
labor supply. 66% of the Americans who lost their job during the pandemic said they were
only somewhat active or not very active at all in searching for a new job. 49% of those not
participating in the workforce were not willing to take jobs that do not offer the opportunity
for remote work. A large portion of them have altered their lifestyle - 17% have retired, 19%
have transitioned to homemaker, and 14% are now working part-time. 24% of respondents
reported that the government aid packages during the pandemic incentivized them to not
actively look for work. Critically, 21% said they never expect to return to full-time work.48

More than 3 million Americans retired early in the 18 months following the pandemic.49 In
2023, 60.5% of retirees say they wouldn’t return to work under any circumstances, up from a
low of 48.1% in May 2022.50

Desire for Higher Wages Reducing Interest in Low-paying Jobs


The consumer price index has risen 17.5% since the pandemic, and wages have not kept up in
the way that they used to. From 2013 to 2019, wages outpaced inflation, meaning that

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consumers were seeing their purchasing power increase. Beginning in 2020 until recently, the
opposite has been true. Conditions are now starting to change with wages keeping up with
inflation more in recent months, but the chief economist at ZipRecruiter describes this trend as
workers “treading water” rather than expanding their financial means in a way that
incentivizes work. The changes in wages and the consumer price index can be seen below.
There is also great variance across sectors. Education workers saw just an 8.6% pay increase
since January 2021, while financials are up 10.2%; construction, 11%; and manufacturing,
11.7%.51

Despite wage increases beginning to match inflation in recent months, most workers still see
the wages as unsatisfactory. Nearly half of America reported feeling “very stressed” about
price increases and wages. For example, “The Great Resignation” of 2021 was, in large part, a
product of workers’ frustrations with wage stagnation, leading them to seek higher-paying
jobs and to become unwilling to work in lower-paying jobs. As the job market becomes more
competitive, this trend has died out, however. Many economists believe that as wages begin to
increase at rates that are more closely keeping up with inflation and as the job market tightens,
workers will be more incentivized to take the lower-paying jobs than they were before. 52

Source: Statista Year-over-year change in real and nominal earnings and the Consumer Price Index

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In Alabama:
Alabama has experienced a total of 17.6% inflation since 202153, and wages have increased
around 17% in the same time, putting the state in a much better position than many others.54
Construction sector wages, for example, increased by $126.01 per week over the last year, and
wages in the trade, transportation, and utilities sector increased by $27.57 per week.

Despite this, Alabamians are the 9th most stressed residents about finances in the country, with
51.5% reporting that they feel “very stressed” about inflation.55 This may be a result of the
perception of wages and the job market not catching up with the recent improvements,
especially as it is the more common narrative in the media to show the negative rather than the
positive.

Skills Mismatch
In 2022, 26% of respondents to a McKinsey American Opportunity survey cited needing
additional skills or experience as a reason for staying out of the workforce. This number was
even higher among younger age groups of 18 to 34, at 40%.56

Changing technology has made some skills obsolete, while creating unfulfilled demand for
other skills. Automation, AI, and other technologies have developed rapidly in recent years. A
2020 World Economic Forum report found that employers estimate they will need 40% of
their employees to learn new skills in the next six months. McKinsey’s 2021 Mind the Skills
Gap study found that 87% of companies say they already have a skills gap or anticipate having
one in the coming years. Some estimate that as much as 25% of the workforce will need to
switch industries entirely by 2030.57

Demographic Changes
Population growth has been slowing in the country for years. There was a return to pre-
pandemic levels, with a growth rate of .5% in 2023. This was mostly driven by a decrease in

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deaths and an increase in international migration, rather than births, as the birth rate continues to
fall. Overall, a decrease in population growth makes for fewer workers entering the workforce
over time.

One of the most significant reasons for a decreasing LFPR in the country is the aging
population. The share of the population that is retired has continued to rise, up to 19% in
2022.58 When that is coupled with a decreasing number entering the workforce, that leaves a
huge portion of the labor force not being replenished.

However, the number of older Americans working continues to grow. In 2002, 1 in 20 over
the age of 75 held a job, but that number has grown to 1 in 12 currently. It is expected to
continue to increase at 1 in 10 over the age of 75 working by 2032. About 1 in 5 Americans
believe they'll never retire, citing financial concerns for that belief. The majority of low-
income workers are reaching 65 with no retirement savings59, so it is a real possibility that the
predictions of a worsening LFPR due to retirements will not be as significant as some
economists believe, as Americans work more years than ever before.

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Demographic changes mean the trend of decreasing LFPR will likely worsen for the next 10-
15 years until the boomer and Generation X anomalies are cleared out, pushing the
participation rate lower. Nationally, the rate is forecast to grind down to 60.7% by 2035,
compared to 62.2% in 2022.

In Alabama:
It’s good news for Alabama on the growth front. The South accounted for 87% of the nation’s
growth in 2023, as it added over 1.4 million residents for a total population of 130,125,290. It
was the only region to maintain growth throughout the pandemic.60 Alabama had a population
growth of .7% in 2023, .2% more than the national average.61 Deaths still exceed births, and
much of the growth is due to people moving from other U.S. states.62

In 2023, the number of people counted as employed grew by 40,100 to a record high of
2,263,270. The civilian labor force increased to a new record high of 2,318,745, with 35,406
more people joining over the year.

Alabama is not immune to the issue of an aging population, however. 1 in 3 Alabamians are
over 50, and the fastest-growing age group is those 65 and older. Alabama’s median age
increased by 0.7 years in 2022, putting it at 39.3 years old.63 The average age of retirement was
62 in 2019. 64

How do Other States Manage their Higher Labor Force Participation Rates?

Utah
Utah has one of the highest LFPR of any state in the country at nearly 70%. It was the only
state in the country to experience an increased LFPR from 2010-2019.65 University of Utah
economist Peter Phillips attributed much of this to the prevalence of the Church of Jesus Christ
of Latter- day Saints because “that is a religion with a culture and a theology that encourages

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family formation” and a subsequent high birth rate that means when workers retire, they are
being replaced at higher rates than in other states.66

The higher birth rate is one of the key reasons that Utah has consistently had a higher LFPR.
For years, Utah held the #1 spot in fertility rates in the country. Recently, it has experienced a
rapid decline, falling to #4 and decreasing by more than 22% in the last 10 years. The
explanation for the drop is simple and predictable - an increase in the cost of having children
and people getting married later. For example, childcare costs have risen 10% in Utah in one
year alone.67 Nationally, increased fertility rates are most strongly associated with a stable
income from the husband and a stable housing situation. 68

Utah is also a highly educated state, with nearly 40% of the population having attained a
bachelor's degree, while 13.2% have secured a graduate degree. This is significantly higher
than Alabama’s previously stated rates of 26% with a bachelor’s and 10% with a graduate
degree.69 This further shows the potential value of a more educated workforce in a higher
LFPR. `

Utah ranks last in the nation for the gender pay-gap, however, with women making 60.8% of
what men do in the state. State officials believe this may be part of the reason why women
over 35 have a lower LFPR than the national average. Therefore, they have proposed
initiatives to increase rates of female entrepreneurship and female education levels, as they lag
behind men in the state in both categories.70 Interestingly, Utah has some of the highest
unemployment benefits in the country, and it is not likely that their benefits are contributing to
a lower LFPR. They pay an average of $391 in benefits per week for 26 weeks, compared to
Alabama’s $255 per week for 20 weeks. 71

Utah has a lower drug overdose rate as well, at 21.1 per 100,000 compared to 30.1 per
100,000 in Alabama.72 Some of the state’s key approaches have been limiting the number of
days of opioid prescriptions for acute, noncomplex, non-chronic conditions, a Talk to Your

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Pharmacist outreach program that encourages pharmacists to start a conversation with


patients who have been prescribed an opioid, 16 opioid treatment programs across the state, a
lock-in program, called the Restriction Program, restricting Medicaid beneficiaries who
exhibit overuse, misuse, abuse, or possible fraud in their use of clinical services, drug take
back events and permanent collection sites to dispose of unused medications.73

Nebraska
Nebraska had the highest labor force participation rate in the country in 2023. The state
government has actively worked towards achieving this through a number of initiatives. One
of their hallmark programs is the Nebraska Promise program which gives free tuition to
universities in The University of Nebraska system to families with incomes under $65,000.
They have also expanded online secondary education offerings to create more flexible
opportunities. This is all in an effort “to keep up with that national demand for a high-skilled
workforce.”74 Also in this pursuit, the Nebraska Worker Training Program (WTP),
administered by the Department of Labor, provides grants to established businesses to fund
training projects for workers in the state, with an emphasis on small businesses.75

Both Utah and Nebraska are in the bottom 10 for the percentage of their population that has
been to prison and crime rates, meaning that little of their population faces the barrier of a
criminal record to their employment.

Nebraska has a low drug overdose rate, at 11.4 deaths per 100,000 people. Some of their key
programs are Project ECHO, which sends experts around the state to educate healthcare
providers, especially in rural areas; free Naloxone at pharmacies, increasing the number of
treatment providers for addiction recovery; and drug take back events.76

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Iowa
Iowa had a LFPR of 68.1% in 2023, but the state has been experiencing a decrease. State
government agencies attribute this, in part at least, to the rising cost of childcare. While the
cost of living in the state is lower than in many places in the country, the average cost of
childcare is 32.1% of the median income.77 This is comparable to Alabama, at 32.6% of the
median income. A report found that 14% of Iowa children ages 5 and younger had a family
member who quit, changed, or refused a job due to childcare issues between 2020 and 2021.78

To combat the negative effect that childcare costs have on low-income households and their
labor force participation, Iowa has recently expanded their childcare assistance program to a
higher income threshold and increased the work requirements to be eligible. In order to receive
assistance, parents are required to either work a minimum of 32 hours a week, be attending
approved educational or training programs, or have a special needs child. The hope is that this
will encourage a more highly skilled workforce if parents receive childcare assistance for
being in training and educational programs.79

Iowa has also begun distributing a survey to 4 year and 2 year college students to better
understand their intentions to remain in Iowa, what states they are planning on moving to
outside of Iowa, their perception of Iowa, and what factors are important to them in choosing
where to live. So far, it has been found that some of the top factors for students in choosing
where to live are diversity, public transportation, weather, and proximity to family and friends.
The data is used to frame their recruiting program that aims to keep college graduates in the
state.80

North Dakota
Much like Iowa, North Dakota has a high LFPR, at 69.5%, but is experiencing a decrease.
One of the industries experiencing the biggest labor shortage is the healthcare industry, with 6
nursing homes and 2 basic care homes closing in the last couple of years. This is especially
problematic when every state is experiencing an aging population. Some officials have

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proposed trying to recruit international healthcare professionals. Warmer states typically have
an easier time recruiting that demographic, however. 81

Essentia, a hospital system in the area, has formed partnerships with North Dakota universities
to support curriculum development and practice partnerships, with an emphasis on providing
practical experience to nursing students so that they feel prepared for their future careers. They
are also upping their presence on colleges campuses, participating in lunch-and-learn events at
colleges, as well as career fairs and hiring events, hoping to encourage students to pursue
healthcare careers. Turnover in the industry is also a large problem, so hospitals are offering
emotional support to new hires to help transition them to professional life, in hopes of upping
their retention rates.82

North Dakota has also placed an emphasis on their recruiting efforts to bring in new people to
the state, with their “Find the Good Life” campaign. The website has a form users can fill out,
where recruiters can help match them to jobs/employers and communities to live in, based on
what they are looking for, asking for details like their timeline, what they like to do for fun,
career desires, etc. It also contains a page with information about different cities in the state,
such as the biggest employers and attractions in the area.83

Other State Programs


Rhode Island has a public-private partnership called “Back to Work RI” that provides
targeted skills training and support services to displaced workers, particularly focused on
ushering them into growing sectors such as health care and information technology.

Maryland’s Employment Advancement Right Now (EARN) allows employers with similar
talent requirements to collaborate on proposals to the state that describe the skills the companies
are looking for and suggest programs to train people in these skills.

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South Carolina has a SC Works program that provides services such as career guidance, job
referrals, and testing and training. It also hits the road attending job fairs, career fairs, and
other events, particularly to the more rural areas of the state. The goal is to reach potential
workers who face barriers to employment, such as transportation.84

An Analysis of Suggestions from the Business Community, the State Government, and
Governor Ivey

The Business Community


The National Association of Manufacturers stated in 2023 that they have 1.5 jobs for every
worker, leaving them with a shortage of workers. There are over 700,000 jobs available at any
given time, with a starting pay of $30/hour and benefits, so business leaders believe that the
problem is not the wages of the jobs. The National Association of Manufacturers blames the
perception of the job for their hiring problem. They argue that the push is for young people to
go to college rather than into the trades or manufacturing; that public schools have often
stopped offering shop classes; and that counselors do not advocate for the trades or
manufacturing, leading many students to not seriously consider it as a career path.

Some CEOs of manufacturing companies have also cited a belief that manufacturing roles
aren’t valued in society as a reason for their labor shortage. Those holding manufacturing jobs
were some of the first to be laid off during the pandemic, which led to many switching fields
and becoming unwilling to return to manufacturing because of concerns that their work was
taken for granted and that the job was unstable. 85

It is important to note that manufacturing has seen wage increases of 11.7% since the
pandemic, but inflation has risen over 17%. Therefore, the real wage has decreased, and this
could lead to workers exiting the industry entirely, especially after a change in lifestyle,
whether that be into a different industry or exiting the workforce, following the pandemic.
There may be a plentiful number of manufacturing jobs open, but they may not align with the

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skills that were previously required of manufacturing workers. There has been a decline in the
number of people going to college in the last few years, and if wages were high enough and
skills were aligned closely enough, it would likely outweigh the perception issue.

As shown earlier, many workers have placed an increased value on the flexibility of their job,
whether that be in the hours worked or remote/hybrid options. Companies struggling to recruit
and retain workers have been frequently advised to increase their flexibility in these categories
in order to improve those outcomes. This approach would likely be met with success in
industries that can use remote or hybrid work, especially with younger workers.

Some companies have acknowledged that the skills mismatch between the job market and
workers, especially with recent developments in technology, presents the need for more and
more companies to offer training and educational programs for both new hires and current
employees.86 This would allow workers to stay up to date with their skills in a way that
incentivizes them to stay in the workforce, and it also could reduce the high turnover rates
that many companies are experiencing.

Some in the business community are pushing for secondary education institutions to adapt
their curriculum to meet the ever-evolving technology landscape by placing a heavier
emphasis on “critical thinking; analytical skills; problem-solving; and skills related to self-
management, such as active learning, resilience, stress tolerance, and flexibility.”87 This
suggestion could aid in workers feeling as if they are equipped to remain in the labor force as
the need for skills evolves, especially as employers are seeking workers with the ability to
learn new skills more than ever.

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State Government Suggestions


The Alabama Workforce Development Board has approved more than $33.6 million in job
search and skills training programs. Moreover, there are 50 Career Centers in the state that
offer free job skills classes, employer-based on-the-job training and apprenticeships, and other
programs.88 This could be critical in reducing the skills gap that workers are experiencing
which drives a high number of them to exit the labor force entirely.

Initiatives to fill jobs in the auto industry have been relatively successful, seeking to fill
11,000 open positions. For example, in 2022, a website called shiftinalabama.com was
launched that allows job seekers to apply for open positions throughout the industry. It
reached 1 million people and generated thousands of job applications. This is a key industry
with jobs to fill, as Mercedes-Benz, Honda, Hyundai, Toyota and Mazda have invested $15
billion in their Alabama assembly operations and more than 150 suppliers have come to the
state.89 Targeted campaigns to fill positions in the most critical industries are highly
beneficial if they are paired with the training that the positions require.

Innovate Alabama, a commission created by Governor Ivey in 2020, has proposed a retention
program targeting talent in STEM at Alabama universities and colleges. The same group has
also proposed conducting research to identify cities around the nation with similar skills that
would be open to moving to Alabama, and heavily marketing the opportunities for such
workers in the state. A tax credit program designed to enable Alabama taxpayers to fund
activities of nonprofit programs focused on recruiting and retaining talent in the state was
suggested. They share the suggestion of the business community to tailor both secondary and
primary education to the changing skills that are required in the workforce, in order to bridge
the skills gap.90

In a survey of its members, The Alabama Board of Nursing found that almost 39,000 nurses in
the state expect to leave the profession in the next five years. Therefore, the nursing shortage
in Alabama could surge from the current deficit of 5,000 nurses to 14,000 by 2027.91 The

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current shortage of 5,000 is already a 20% vacancy rate.92 Ed Castile, deputy secretary of the
Alabama Department of Commerce, points to difficulty finding faculty to teach nursing
students and a subsequent lack of space in the nursing programs to accommodate the students
interested in becoming nurses.93 One possible solution to the problem Castile presents is
increasing the salaries of educating nurses, as they make significantly less than practicing
nurses do. 94 Transportation issues are another key factor cited by Castile, stating that workers
face issues being able to “depend on that transportation every day, especially if the shift starts
at 6 a.m or 7 a.m.”95

In 2023, 31% of Alabamians cited a lack of transportation as the primary reason they were
unable to work.96 However, in such a rural state, mass transit may not be the best solution.97
Bus networks in rural regions are highly inefficient, especially for the cost.98 85% of
Americans commute using a car, and Alabama is the most car-dependent state in the country, a
system that is unlikely to change anytime soon.99 One option to make cars more accessible is
to repeal laws preventing direct auto manufacturer sales, dealer licenses, and other measures
that limit competition in auto sales.100

Governor Ivey
In an op-ed written in 2023, Governor Ivey points mostly to postsecondary education
attainment but also childcare, transportation, a reliance on entitlement programs, and
workforce training as the key factors influencing the low LFPR.101 She has set out an
ambitious goal of adding 500,000 workers to the labor force by 2025. Meeting just 40% of that
would raise Alabama to the national average LFPR.102

She established the Governor’s Office of Education and Workforce Transformation in 2019.
The director of the office, Nick Moore, has stated that one of their key goals is to create
pathways “to a bachelor’s degree, an associate’s degree, an apprenticeship, an occupational
license or certification, a post-secondary credential that’s going to prepare them for one of our
state’s in-demand jobs.” This objective is a critical one because, as evidenced above, those

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with the least education are the ones dropping out of the workforce at the highest rates, likely
due to a skills mismatch issue. One of the key findings of the office is that early education
success is critical to creating workers who will be reliable and want to work.103 They have also
placed an emphasis on retaining Alabamians who are highly skilled rather than them moving
to other states.104 This is not the most critical issue to focus on, as more people are moving to
the state than moving out of it.105

In November of 2023, Governor Ivey announced the building of a new $30 million
workforce training center in Decatur that focuses on training people in emerging technologies
in the auto industry. She has expressed a commitment to keeping Alabama workers up to date
with the ever-changing skills needed in manufacturing industries, especially in the auto
industry that is growing in the state.106 Efforts targeted at the specific industries that Alabama
lacks workers in are a wise investment that will likely pay off by bridging the skills gap.

Lt. Governor Ainsworth


In 2019, the Lt. Governor’s Commission on 21st Century Workforce was created with the
goal of increasing Alabama’s workforce competitiveness. In 2023 the Commission was
tasked to study the state’s current workforce development system, develop a comprehensive
workforce plan, and draft legislation needed to improve the state’s workforce outcomes.
That legislation could be considered during the 2024 legislative session.

The Alabama Workforce Development Plan was published in January 2024 and lays out a
number of recommendations to improve Alabama’s workforce development capabilities. The
stated goal is to “recruit people off the sidelines, back into the labor force, and into skilled
labor and middle-class jobs that are available today.”

First, the plan would consolidate state agencies and departments that participate in the
workforce development system under one new entity, the Alabama Workforce Authority
(AWA), to be led by a cabinet-level secretary appointed by the Governor. The AWA would

Alabama Policy Institute Report on the Labor Force Participation Rate


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be led by a Board of Directors comprised of industry leaders, because research has shown
that increased industry engagement is critical to success at the state, regional, and local
levels.

Several of the recommendations of the Commission focus on increased marketing and


communications campaigns. Specifically, campaigns would target underutilized and under
engaged segments of the 1.7 million Alabamians over the age of 16 who are currently not
participating in the state’s labor force. Marketing would be specifically targeted at these
“hard-to-reach” individuals and supported through partnerships with non-governmental
organizations at the local level.

Another important recommendation proposed by the Commission is to connect enhanced


workforce training initiatives to meaningful careers, i.e. ensuring that once workers have
undertaken additional training, it results in being hired into the workforce at the end of the
process. By having leading industry members engaged in the process through the AWA
board of directors, pathways from training to careers could not only be established, but also
help sectors of the economy fill ongoing labor shortages.

The Commission also addressed a variety of other barriers to entering the workforce that
could be addressed by the Legislature. First, it recommends creating a childcare tax credit
that would incentivize employers to offset the costs of employee childcare and to reward
childcare providers for expanding the access to and quality of childcare. The cost of childcare
is a major barrier that keeps many Alabamians from entering into the labor market.

Another issue already discussed in this paper but also highlighted by the Commission is
addressing mental health and addiction issues. While many people who are arrested for a
drug offense may be eligible for a diversion program (and have felony charges dropped from
their criminal record), about 40% of people interested in diversion fail to do so or are unable
to complete the program due to affordability. By expanding access to low and no cost

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treatment and recovery programs, state and local governments could provide valuable
addiction and mental health treatment and allow drug offenders to keep their criminal record
free of felonies, increasing their earning potential and career options.

What Else Can Alabama Do?

Make Transportation More Affordable


Repealing regulations, such as occupational licensing restrictions on car dealers, would allow
more competition in the market with the potential for lower prices of vehicles. Freezing or
repealing the gas tax would make operating those vehicles more affordable and commuting
less financially burdensome, especially in rural areas.

Lessen the Childcare Shortage


The average cost of childcare in Alabama is 32.6% of the median income, driving women who
have the skills and desire to work out of the workforce. While Alabama does not have official
occupational licensing of child day care centers, it does have many of the features of licensing
requirements, requiring licenses of daycare centers, pre-licensing visits, follow-up visits, etc. 107
This hits at-home care centers particularly hard, which many parents prefer. These requirements
have been shown to increase the cost of child care without significantly improving the quality of
care, and lessening them could allow for greater competition that would drive down prices for
families.108 Liberalizing zoning codes could also allow more home daycares to operate than
before, further driving down prices.109 Large businesses should also be encouraged to offer
childcare in order to make themselves more competitive in the labor market.

Make Housing More Affordable


Alabama lacks over 90,000 affordable and available housing units for low-wage earning
families.110 Reducing zoning regulations and reducing permitting fees to increase the housing
supply and reduce building costs could reduce costs for those searching for housing. Identify
and eliminate barriers to housing innovation, such as density regulations, that prevent lower-

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cost apartment complexes from being built.111 Tax relief for multifamily developments could
also incentivize increasing the housing supply.112

Moreover, one of the strongest predictors of fertility rates is the cost of living in a state,
primarily housing costs.113 Therefore, in order to increase the size of the workforce in the long
term, housing costs are a necessary component to consider.

Expand Mental Health and Addiction Services


Expanding access to tele-psychiatry would be especially useful for people in rural
environments who would have to travel long distances for evaluation or care, avoiding long
hospital stays, and allowing patients to check in more frequently. Allowing more competition
in the public mental health system by directing agencies to contract for care in the open
market, renewing contracts on performance and efficiency, could allow for more affordable
and wide-reaching care.114

Recruit People to Move to Alabama


The top factor people consider when moving is the cost of living in an area, so continuing to
find ways to decrease housing costs and childcare costs could be critical to keeping Alabama’s
workforce growing by recruiting people from other states to move here. Creating a website like
that of North Dakota with easy to find information about different locations and opportunities in
the state for those looking to move could be helpful in getting people to think about Alabama
as a new home. This is particularly important to offset an aging population. It would also be
beneficial to recruit international healthcare workers, as nursing programs in the state are full
while still experiencing a healthcare worker shortage.

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Continue to Expand Broadband Internet Access


There is evidence that expanding broadband internet access is associated with an increase in the
LFPR, with some estimating as much as a 2% increase when broadband access is deployed to
counties that previously did not have access. This phenomenon is likely due to the fact that
workers are connected to regional job opportunities and remote work options.115 Moreover,
“[digital] tools and technology boosted gross sales of rural small businesses by 17.2% during the
past three years, the equivalent of $69.8 billion per year.”116 This increase could allow small
businesses to pay higher wages and to better compete in the labor market.

Focus Workforce Training


Implementing a program like that in Maryland that allows employers with similar talent
requirements to collaborate on proposals to the state that describe the skills the companies are
looking for and to suggest training programs could increase the efficiency of the pre-existing
workforce training centers in the state, making workers more equipped for the positions that
are the most in-demand, rather than general skills that may not be relevant. This collaboration
could create incentives for dislocated workers to re-enter the workforce and aid in local
development. This could be especially important as the skills employers need are constantly
evolving with technology.

Incentivize Employers to Hire Workers Not in the Labor Force


Giving employers more incentives to hire those now out of the market could include tax
incentives to make hiring and training under-skilled workers more profitable, especially for
small businesses. The training of these workers not in the workforce by businesses could
relieve the pressure on the state to conduct such training programs and aid in closing the skills
gap affecting the state.

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Conclusion:
This report has laid out a wide range of factors that influence the labor force participation rate.
Increasing dependent care needs, automation in manufacturing, the opioid crisis, the decline of
the nuclear family, inflation, the pandemic, expanded unemployment benefits, a skills
mismatch, and an aging population are all strong contributors to the decline in the labor force
in recent years. Other states, such as Utah, North Dakota, Nebraska, and Iowa are experiencing
better rates than most of the country due to a variety of factors like a younger population,
lower drug addiction rates, recruitment efforts to encourage emigration and retention of college
students, and other program implementation. Alabama leaders have taken note of the state’s
exceptionally low labor force participation rate and begun searching for solutions. However,
addressing such a far-reaching problem will require creative solutions and the willingness to
make large changes, such as reducing regulations that prevent housing and childcare
expansion.

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29

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69 https://www.alreporter.com/2020/09/15/wide-variance-in-educational-attainment-between-counties/
#:~:text=According%20to%20the%20PARCA%20research,Alabamians%20have%20an%20associate's% 20degree

70 https://www.hjnews.com/news/local/a-positive-impact-utah-womens-labor-force-participation-is-
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71 https://www.forbes.com/advisor/personal-finance/best-and-worst-states-for-unemployment/
72 https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/sosmap/drug_poisoning_mortality/drug_poisoning.htm

73 https://oig.hhs.gov/oas/reports/region7/71805115_Highlights.pdf
74 https://nebraskapublicmedia.org/en/news/news-articles/nebraskas-shifting-workforce-demands-amid- brain-
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75 https://www.oppd.com/business/economic-development/doing-business-in-nebraska/workforce/

76 https://dhhs.ne.gov/Pages/State-Opioid-Response.aspx

77 https://cbs2iowa.com/news/local/high-child-care-daycare-costs-leave-iowa-parents-with-no-choice-but- to-
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79 https://hhs.iowa.gov/programs/programs-and-services/child-care/CCA

80 https://workforce.iowa.gov/labor-market-information/labor-supply-availability/college-student- retention/data

81 https://www.inforum.com/news/north-dakota/nurse-shortages-extensive-regulations-challenging-long- term-
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82 https://www.grandforksherald.com/prairie-business/closing-gaps-in-the-health-care-workforce
83 https://findthegoodlife.com/things-to-do/

84 https://scworks.org/roadtrips
85 https://www.cbsnews.com/news/men-workforce-work-companies-struggle-fill-jobs-manufacturing/

86 https://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/overview/in-the-news/heres-how-leaders-can-navigate-labor-shortages- and-
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87 https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/10/top-10-work-skills-of-tomorrow-how-long-it-takes-to-learn- the...

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89 https://www.madeinalabama.com/2023/06/enviva-kicks-off-construction-on-wood-pellet-plant-in-
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90 https://innovatealabama.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/commission-report-2021.pdf

91 https://wire.auburn.edu/content/ocm/2023/11/091037-frontline-
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92 https://mynbc15.com/news/local/alabama-in-crisis-20-of-nursing-jobs-remain-vacant-as-national-
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93 https://alabamareflector.com/2023/10/31/experts-training-transportation-and-child-care-shortages-
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94 https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/05/business/nursing-staff-shortage-school-enrollment/index.html

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95 https://alabamareflector.com/2023/10/31/experts-training-transportation-and-child-care-shortages-
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96 https://aldailynews.com/survey-31-of-underemployed-cite-transportation-issues-as-barrier/
97 https://worldpopulationreview.com/state-rankings/most-rural-states

98 https://cities-today.com/industry/public-transit-rural-communities-extremely-inefficient-data-change/

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100 https://www.cato.org/publications/transportation#policy-solution

101 https://aldailynews.com/gov-kay-ivey-to-eliminate-help-wanted-signs-we-must-shift-our-focus-to-
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102 https://ir-api.ua.edu/api/core/bitstreams/139dec06-9fca-4690-94aa-63a2c91bb6c3/content

103 https://aldailynews.com/improving-early-education-performance-key-to-improving-workforce-
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104 https://aldailynews.com/summit-on-talent-retention-work-based-learning-underway

105 https://www.al.com/news/2022/06/more-people-moving-to-alabama-than-moving-away-moving-
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106 https://www.madeinalabama.com/2023/11/30-million-ev-training-center-will-support-auto-industry- growth/

107 https://dhr.alabama.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/Child-Care-Licensing-Flowchart-April-2023.pdf
108 https://www.mercatus.org/system/files/Thomas-Regulation-Child-Care.pdf

109 https://www.cato.org/publications/childcare#policy-solutions

111 https://www.cato.org/publications/housing-affordability#action-plan
112 https://www.rand.org/pubs/articles/2023/how-new-york-city-can-make-housing-more-affordable.html

113 https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/american-birth-rate-plummeting-not-some-states

114 https://www.heritage.org/health-care-reform/report/principled-mental-health-system-reform

115 https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/frbp/assets/community-development/reports/broadband-
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116 https://americaninnovators.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/Unlocking-the-Digital-Potential-of-
Rural-America.pdf

Alabama Policy Institute Report on the Labor Force Participation Rate


The Alabama Policy Institute is a non-profit, non-partisan
educational and research institution dedicated to ensuring
free markets, limited government, and strong families.

For more information, please contact us at:


Alabama Policy Institute
200 Missionary Ridge Drive
Birmingham, Alabama 35242
205.870.9900
www.alabamapolicy.org

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