Access the Global Food and Nutrition Security Dashboard Update November 30, 2023

The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this update do not necessarily reflect the views of
the World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent.

AT A GLANCE
• Since the last update on November 09, 2023, the agriculture and export price indices closed 2 percent and 6
percent higher, respectively, while the cereal price index closed 3 percent lower.
• Domestic food price inflation remains high in low-, middle-, and high-income countries.
• In the World Bank October 2023 World Food Security Outlook, updated estimates and projections highlight that
global food security conditions are stabilizing slowly but that disparities between income groups are increasing.
• A new Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) report attempts to capture the “true cost” of global agrifood
systems by analyzing the substantial hidden costs associated with the sector. According to its findings, these
costs add up to approximately USD 12.7 trillion annually (2020 purchasing power parity, US$), or about USD 35
billion per day, equivalent to about 10 percent of global gross domestic product (GDP) in 2020.

GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK (AS OF NOVEMBER 29, 2023)

Trends in Global Agricultural Commodity Prices
Since the last update on November 09, 2023, the agriculture and export price indices closed 2 percent and 6 percent
higher, respectively, while the cereal price index closed 3 percent lower. The increase in the export price index was
driven by increase in cocoa, coffee (Arabica), and cotton prices. Among cereals, maize and rice prices saw a decline
of 5 percent and 2 percent, respectively, while wheat prices increased by 2 percent since the last update. On a year-
on-year basis, maize and wheat prices are 30 percent and 31 percent lower, respectively, while rice prices are 36
percent higher. Compared to January 2021, maize prices are 13 percent lower, wheat prices are 16 percent lower,
while rice prices are 20 percent higher (Figure 1).
 Figure 1: Agricultural and Cereal Price Trends (Nominal Indexes)

Source: World Bank commodity price data.

Note: Daily prices from January 1, 2021, to November 29, 2023. The export index includes cocoa, coffee, and cotton; the cereal index
includes rice, wheat, and maize.

Food Price Inflation Dashboard

Domestic food price inflation (measured as year-on-year change in the food component of a country’s Consumer
Price Index (CPI)) remains high. (See the dashboard in Annex A.) Information from the latest month between July
and October 2023 for which food price inflation data are available shows high inflation in many low- and middle-
income countries, with inflation higher than 5 percent in 61.9 percent of low-income countries (an increase of 9.5
percentage points since the last update three weeks ago), 80.0 percent of lower-middle-income countries (a
decrease of 8.6 percentage points), and 50.0 percent of upper-middle-income countries (a decrease of 12
percentage points), with many experiencing double-digit inflation. In addition, 60.0 percent of high-income
countries (a decrease of 7.3 percentage points) are experiencing high food price inflation. The most-affected
countries are in Africa, North America, Latin America, South Asia, Europe, and Central Asia (Figure 2a). In real terms,
food price inflation exceeded overall inflation (measured as year-on-year change in the overall CPI) in 76 percent of
the 166 countries for which food CPI and overall CPI indexes are both available (Figure 2b). This week’s 10 countries
with the highest food price inflation, in nominal and real terms, are listed in Table 1 (using the latest month for
which data are available between July and October 2023).

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 Source: International Monetary Fund, Haver Analytics, and Trading Economics.
Note: Food inflation for each country is based on the latest month from July 2023 to October 2023 for which the food component of the
Consumer Price Index (CPI) and overall CPI data are available. Real food inflation is defined as food inflation minus overall inflation.

Table 1: Food Price Inflation: Top 10 List

Country Nominal food inflation (%YoY) Country Real food inflation

(%YoY)
Venezuela 318 Egypt 35
Lebanon 218 Liberia 15
Argentina 154 Argentina 11
Türkiye 72 Türkiye 11
Egypt 71 Sierra Leone 10
Sierra Leone 65 Ghana 10
Suriname 47 Rwanda 10
Ghana 45 Belgium 9
Iran, Islamic Republic of 36 Netherlands 8
Malawi 34 Bahrain 8
Source: International Monetary Fund, Haver Analytics, and Trading Economics.
Note: Food inflation for each country is based on the latest month from July 2023 to October 2023 for which the food component of the
Consumer Price Index (CPI) and overall CPI data are available. Real food inflation is defined as food inflation minus overall inflation.

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 EMERGING ISSUES
World Bank October 2023 World Food Security Outlook: Global Food Security Conditions
Are Stabilizing Slowly, but Disparities Between Income Groups Are Increasing
In the October 2023 World Food Security Outlook1, the World Bank has updated preliminary estimates of food
insecurity. The data cut-off date for the World Food Security Outlook analysis is October 20, 2023, and does not
reflect recent developments in the Middle East.

The World Bank has launched the World Food Security Outlook (WFSO), a model-enhanced database updated three
times a year, aligning with IMF's WEO and FAO’s SOFI releases2. It focuses on severe food insecurity, offering
historical, preliminary, and forecast data, including for countries lacking official data. The data covers prevalence
rates, population sizes of the severely food insecure, and corresponding safety net financing needs. The WFSO aids
policymakers by integrating food security projections with economic forecasts for comprehensive planning.

Global Food Security Conditions Are Stabilizing Slowly

The global recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine are ongoing, marked by slow
progress and varying effects on global economic stability. Factors such as high inflation, monetary policy tightening,
reduction of fiscal support, and repercussions of extreme weather events, including those related to El Niño,
influence this complex situation, contributing to a projected decline in global economic growth and heightened
financial strain, deviating from the more optimistic outlook in April, with differences between countries.
Simultaneously, the food insecurity outlook updated in October 2023 is worse in certain country groupings, and
better in others, than the previous assessment based on economic projections from April 2023.

Preliminary estimates indicate that global food insecurity may have peaked at 11.9 percent during 2020 to 2022,
with slight improvement to 11.8 percent expected for 2021 to 2023 and 11.6 percent for 2022/23 (Figure 3),
although the long-term outlook remains uncertain. These short-term improvements come after a sustained rise in
food insecurity since 2014, projected to level off by 2024/25. There is a risk of these prevalence rate improvements
stalling, with a new high of 943 million people facing severe food insecurity by 2025. Looking ahead to 2028, the
global severely food-insecure population is projected to reach 956 million. In a downside economic scenario, if

1 Andrée, B. P. J. (2023). World Food Security Outlook. October 2023. WLD_2023_WFSO_v01_M. Washington, DC: World Bank Microdata
Library. https://doi.org/10.48529/ev5a-ke69

2 Andree, Bo Pieter Johannes; Andree, Bo, Pieter Johannes. 2022. Machine Learning Guided Outlook of Global Food Insecurity Consistent
with Macroeconomic Forecasts. Policy Research Working Papers;10202. World Bank, Washington, DC. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/38139

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central banks fail to control inflation and respond with further tightening, leading to suppressed growth, this figure
narrowly avoids reaching 1 billion in the forecast horizon.

Figure 3: Number of Severely Food Insecure People in the World

Source: Andrée, B. P. J. (2023). World Food Security Outlook. October 2023. WLD_2023_WFSO_v01_M. Washington, DC: World Bank
Microdata Library. https://doi.org/10.48529/ev5a-ke69
Note: Calculated by summing World Food Security Outlook country data as of October 2023 and scaling to 216 countries and
territories by matching the latest UN global population count. e = estimate, f = forecast.

Disparities Between Income Groups Are Increasing

Although global food security is expected to stabilize, data at the income-group level reveal that improvements in
upper middle-income-countries predominantly drive this trend (Figure 4), with low-middle-income countries
anticipated to experience only short-term improvements and an overall slowdown in the long-term upward trend
and low-income-countries projected to witness further increases in their severely food-insecure populations. These
disparities are wider than in previous outlooks. The current preliminary estimate for the prevalence of severe food
insecurity in low-income-countries for 2021 to 2023 is 32.0 percent, and this is projected to improve only slightly to
30.8 percent by 2027 to 2029. For low-middle-income countries, these figures are 13.7 percent and 13.3 percent,
respectively, and for upper-middle-income-countries, 7.7 percent and 6.7 percent, respectively.

In addition to challenges arising from increasing debt-service costs, many low-income-countries are at notable risk
of debt distress. It is crucial to implement monetary and fiscal policies to restore stability and alleviate the impact
of these economic challenges, but fiscal space in these countries is constrained, and they are already contending
with high levels of food insecurity. The estimated prevalence of severe food insecurity for 2023 is 25.7 percent in

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heavily indebted poor countries, nearly 8 percent higher than the International Development Association (IDA)
cohort excluding these countries.

Figure 4: Number of Severely Food-Insecure People in the World According to Income Group

Note: Calculated by summing World Food Security Outlook country data of October 2023 using the World Bank’s income group
classifications of 2023. Note: e = estimate, f = forecast.

Most countries facing long-term food insecurity are in Africa (Figure 5), with some localized hunger hotspots in
other regions not expected to achieve Sustainable Development Goal 2, Zero Hunger, by 2030. According to the
WFSO, the prevalence of severe food insecurity is projected to persist above 10 percent in 73 countries and above
20 percent in 30 countries.

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 Figure 5: Global Food Security by 2030

Source: Andrée, B. P. J. (2023). World Food Security Outlook. October 2023. WLD_2023_WFSO_v01_M. Washington, DC: World Bank
Microdata Library. https://doi.org/10.48529/ev5a-ke69
Note: Calculated by extrapolating 1998-2029 World Food Security Outlook (WFSO) country data to 2029-2031 using a structural time
series model. Areas not covered by the WFSO data indicated in grey.

Global Financing Needs Remain High and Continue Their Shift Toward LICs
The slow recovery, coupled with a rise in food insecurity in specific regions and considerable uncertainty regarding
economic stability, underscores the need to reinforce measures safeguarding vulnerable populations. The projected
financing requirements to establish a basic safety net, covering 25 percent of daily caloric needs for individuals
facing severe food insecurity from 2023 to 2030, amount to USD 41 billion annually in countries falling under the
IDA lending category and USD 47 billion in countries falling under the International Bank for Reconstruction and
Development lending category (Figure 6). Not only the population trends described, but also the escalation in global
food prices influence this increase. These figures are nearly double pre-pandemic needs, surpassing an estimated
combined total of more than USD 90 billion annually from 2023 to 2030. Over the long term, the shift of needs
toward IDA countries will continue to intensify. Projections indicate that, in LICs and LMICs, safety net costs remain
approximately double those of 2018 to 2020, whereas needs in UMICs increase by 30 percent.

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Figure 6: Annual Development Financing Needs for Sustainable Development Goal 2 According to Income Group

Source: Andrée, B. P. J. (2023). World Food Security Outlook. October 2023. WLD_2023_WFSO_v01_M. Washington, DC: World Bank
Microdata Library. https://doi.org/10.48529/ev5a-ke69.
Note: e = estimate, f = forecast.

Hidden Costs in Global Agrifood Systems Are an Estimated USD 12.7 Trillion Annually
A new FAO report attempts to capture the “true cost” of global agrifood systems by analyzing the substantial hidden
costs associated with the sector. According to its findings, these costs are approximately USD 12.7 trillion annually
(2020 PPP), or about USD 35 billion per day—equivalent to about 10 percent of global GDP in 2020 (Figure 7).

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 Figure 7: Quantified Hidden Costs of Agrifood Systems According to (a) Cost Category and (b) Subcategory
(2020 PPP USD, Billions)

(a) (b)

Source: Lord, S. 2023. “Hidden Costs of Agrifood Systems and Recent Trends from 2016 to 2023 – Background paper for The State of
Food and Agriculture 2023.” FAO Agricultural Development Economics Technical Study, No. 31. FAO, Rome.
Note: All values are expected values.

The calculations are based on a true cost accounting (TCA) technique that combines national-level data from 154
countries with monetary estimates of hidden costs to approximate the impact of agrifood systems on natural,
human, social, and produced capital. Despite challenges in quantification, the report attempts to calculate
environmental costs from greenhouse gas emissions, nitrogen emissions, water use, and land-use change; health
costs from productivity losses due to unhealthy dietary patterns; social costs from poverty; and productivity losses
associated with undernourishment.

High-income-countries and upper-middle-income countries account for most of these costs, generating 36 percent
and 39 percent of total quantified hidden costs, respectively; low-middle-income countries contribute 22 percent;
and low-income-countries contribute 3 percent, but the ratio of hidden costs to GDP is higher in low-income-
countries, averaging 27 percent. By contrast, the ratio of hidden costs to GDP for all other country income groups
is between 11 percent and 14 percent.

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The types of costs incurred vary according to country level income too. In high-income-countries, productivity losses
from dietary patterns that lead to noncommunicable diseases are the most significant contributor to agrifood
systems damages, followed by environmental costs. In low-middle-income-countries and low-income-countries,
social hidden costs from poverty and undernourishment are more significant.

TCA can help policy makers identify emerging problems and more holistically employ cost–benefit analysis and cost-
effectiveness approaches in the agricultural and food sectors. The report also highlights the key role of the private
sector in addressing hidden costs. Agrifood businesses can integrate TCA into decision-making processes, enhancing
supply chain transparency and aligning with sustainability goals, and can help redefine company performance
indicators and encourage businesses to consider externalities in their operations.

REGIONAL UPDATES
East and Southern Africa
In many areas in East and southern Africa, the ongoing intense El Niño event is expected to reduce harvests and
increase food prices. The current El Niño is forecasted to peak in late 2023 and dissipate by mid-2024. In southern
Africa, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food security outcomes are present in weather-shocked areas of Mozambique and
Malawi and conflict-affected areas in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo and Cabo Delgado, Mozambique.
Across the region, the high cost of living drives Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes as harvested food stocks decline
for households in typically low-producing areas. The strong El Niño will likely result in below-average 2024 harvests,
including in surplus-producing South Africa and Zambia. Some governments are making plans to increase access of
poor households to inputs to boost production, including supporting farmers through subsidized fertilizer and seeds
(Lesotho), distribution of agricultural inputs (Angola), suspension of import duties on nitrogenous fertilizer, and
targeted input assistance programs tailored to specific agroclimatic regions (Zimbabwe). The anticipated below-
average cereal and cash crop harvests in 2024 will also lead to an atypical increase in imported maize from outside
the region to meet consumer demand during the 2024/25 MY, exacerbating already high maize prices. By the start
of the 2024/25 agricultural season in October 2024, it is likely that low liquidity among better-off households, given
a likely reduction in revenue from the expected below-average 2024 harvest, will further constrain income-earning
opportunities from agricultural labor. In East Africa, the effects of El Niño are expected to lead to a net decline in
need for food assistance, although need will remain very high because of the 2020–23 drought in the eastern Horn
of Africa; 2019–22 floods in South Sudan; and conflicts in northern Ethiopia, South Sudan, and Sudan. In Kenya, it
is likely that above-average October to December short rains will increase cropped areas and agricultural labor
opportunities, although it is likely that the high cost of staple foods and nonfood needs will keep households relying
on income from off-own-farm activities to meet their food needs and pay off past debts.

East Asia and the Pacific

The government of Indonesia is implementing multiple measures in response to rising domestic rice prices.
Indonesia’s monthly rice inflation slowed to 1.7 percent in October from 5.6 percent in September, although retail

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prices are still 19 percent higher than during the same period in 2022. At the farm level, prices are between 28
percent and 31 percent higher year on year. El Niño has delayed the start of the rice cropping season in late 2023;
hence Indonesia’s main harvest season in 2024 is expected to be delayed by two months, from typically March-April
to May-June. There are concerns that this may further push rice prices up in early 2024. To protect lower-income
households from rising rice prices, the government has extended its monthly in-kind rice assistance program until
June 2024. The scheme, which provides 10 kg of rice per month to 21.3 million beneficiary households, who are
also recipients of the government’s regular social protection schemes Family Hope Program and Staple Food
Program (Sembako), was initially set to end in December 2023. The government is planning to expand the scheme
to cover 22 million households in 2024 and is extending its assistance to 1.4 million households with children at risk
of stunting until June 2024. Under this scheme, beneficiary households receive 1 kg of chicken meat and 16 eggs
per month. The 18.8 million recipients of the Sembako program will also receive additional El Nino transfers for
November-December 2023. Under the Sembako program, households typically receive rupiahs (IDR) 200,000 (USD
13) per month. The El Niño transfers will provide them with an additional IDR 200,000 (USD 13) per month. The
budget allocated to the rice assistance scheme and El Niño cash assistance amounts to IDR 10.2 trillion (USD 662
million) and IDR 7.5 trillion (USD 489 million), respectively. To ensure adequate stocks for government rice reserves,
including for channeling the rice assistance, the government has allocated IDR 19.1 trillion (USD 1.2 billion) for rice
procurement through state-owned enterprise BULOG. The government will exempt BULOG from rice import duties
through the government-borne import duty scheme, which at IDR 450 (USD 0.03) per kg, will apply to the import
of 1.5 million tonnes of rice by BULOG for the government rice reserves. It is designed to reduce BULOG’s
procurement costs, considering high international rice prices and the rupiah’s weakening exchange rate. The
government is also accelerating the planting of rice and providing seed incentives to farmers to boost domestic
production.

High food prices, ongoing conflict, and natural disasters continue to threaten food security in Myanmar. According
to a recent FAO–World Food Programme (WFP) report, acute food security in Myanmar remains a concern because
of the likelihood of below-average cereal production in 2023 following the low 2022 cereal output that contributed
to record-high food prices. The devastating effects of Cyclone Mocha in Rakhine State and other states and regions
in western Myanmar since mid-May 2023 and flooding in major rice producing areas since early August have
complicated the situation. Recent International Food Policy Research Institute research found that, from June 2020
to August 2023, the cost of a healthy diet had increased by 111 percent and that of a common diet by 130 percent.
Food prices reached record-high levels, outpacing salaries; rice prices nearly tripled; pulse, pork, and leafy greens
prices approximately doubled; potato and onion prices more than tripled; and oil prices more than quadrupled.
Conflict continues to have a devastating impact on local livelihoods and trading businesses, with farmers in Sagaing
facing high costs and restrictions, and northern Shan experiencing skyrocketing prices and shortages due to
interrupted trade flows. Exporters of perishable goods such as fishery products, fruits, and vegetables are also facing
substantial losses due to the halt in border trade. It is estimated that the State Administration Council is losing USD
423,000 per day in tax revenue from trade lost at Chin Shwe Haw and Muse; Muse accounts for about 70 percent
of Myanmar's cross-border trade with China. Meanwhile, on October 1, 2023, Myanmar increased the daily
minimum wage to 5,800 kyat (USD 2.76) for an eight-hour day, a 20 percent increase from the previous rate of

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4,800 kyat (USD 2.28), set in 2018. This new rate applies to public and private sector workers and comes as the
country faces soaring inflation.

Europe and Central Asia

The European Commission will allocate €186 million in 2024 to fund promotion activities for sustainable, high-
quality EU agri-food products at home and abroad. The 2024 promotion policy work program that the Commission
adopted is designed to develop new market opportunities while considering political priorities, projected exports
to existing and emerging markets, and contributions from stakeholders. The amounts available for campaigns
selected in 2024 are split between promotion in the EU internal market (€81.3 million) and third countries (€85.1
million). Outside the European Union, countries and regions with high growth potential (China, Japan, South Korea,
Singapore, North America) are identified as main promotion targets. The United Kingdom remains one of the main
export markets for EU agrifood products, absorbing more than 20 percent of EU27 exports. The European
Commission co-funds up to 80 percent of the selected projects that private operators submit and runs its own
communication campaigns in third countries. Calls for proposals for the upcoming 2024 campaigns will be open
from January 18 to May 14, 2024.

Some 150 ships have used Ukraine's new Black Sea shipping corridor since it was set up in August, the Interfax-
Ukraine news agency reported on November 17, citing a senior government official, and 4.4 million tonnes of cargo,
including 3.2 million tonnes of grain, has been shipped via the corridor. Ukraine has sought to create a shipping
corridor for its seaborne exports after Russia's July withdrawal from the UN-backed deal that had allowed some
food exports to flow despite the war and has been operating this "temporary corridor" toward the Bosporus without
Russian security guarantees since August. Large-scale projects in the field of transport logistics and storage
infrastructure for agricultural products have therefore begun to be implemented in Kazakhstan, as the president of
Kazakhstan announced at the 19th Forum of Interregional Cooperation between Kazakhstan and Russia. According
to the president, transport and logistics limitations greatly influence the insufficient realization of Kazakhstan’s
agro-industrial and export potential, so an important area of cooperation should be development of storage
infrastructure, including elevators and vegetable and fruit storage facilities. He noted that Kazakhstan plans to
increase storage capacity for climate-controlled products by 1 million tonnes and is developing transport
infrastructure. Promising markets for agricultural products from Kazakhstan include China, India, and Middle
Eastern countries.

Latin America and the Caribbean

The latest domestic food price warnings from FAO (November 10, 2023) flag a moderate warning for retail prices
of bread in Argentina, where prices in September 2023 were 165 percent above their year-earlier values in retail
markets, and a moderate warning for rice in Ecuador, where wholesale rice prices remained at well above their
year-earlier levels in October 2023.

According to the November 2023 FAO Crop Prospects and Food Situation, in South America, projections for 2024
indicate a decrease in maize plantings from the previous year’s peak, primarily because of less-favorable weather
conditions. This follows record cereal output in 2023, the result of an exceptional harvest in Brazil that more than
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compensated for a production downturn in Argentina. Meanwhile, in Central America and the Caribbean, a
confluence of factors including civil unrest, economic decline, and adverse weather conditions are decreasing
agricultural output and exacerbating acute food insecurity, particularly in Haiti.

Panama is facing a series of citizen demonstrations as a result of the approval of Law 406, which endorsed a
concessional contract between the Panamanian government and a mining company on October 20, 2023. The law
was since declared unconstitutional by the country’s Supreme Court. According to a report from the International
Federation of the Red Cross, fuel shortages, food rationing, potential power outages, and a decrease in water
purification supplies have been reported in several provinces since the protests began. Road closures in key rice-
producing provinces are resulting in substantial losses in rice production, a staple food in Panama. Various
fishermen's associations have reported losses due to the inability to sell and transport their products to markets
and storage facilities. Throughout the country, there have been reports of significant losses in perishable goods,
including vegetables and fruits that have been unable to reach markets and supermarkets. This is already reflected
in product shortages in stores nationwide, coupled with price increases. The Chamber of Commerce, Industries, and
Agriculture estimates daily losses ranging from USD 60 million to USD 90 million because of these disruptions.

Middle East and North Africa

According to the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics, food and beverage prices increased by 10 percent in Gaza
during October 2023. Prices of vegetables increased by 32 percent, wheat flour by 65 percent, and mineral water
by 100 percent. The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs reported that wheat flour is
no longer available in the market and that bakeries are no longer operational. The WFP estimates that around 2.2
million people, nearly the entire population of Gaza, need food assistance. The recent pause in hostilities has
allowed an uptick in humanitarian assistance, including food supplies, to Gaza. In Lebanon, according to the newly
released LCRP Food Security and Agriculture Dashboard2.1 million individuals received food assistance at least
two out of the six months in most of which was cash based. In Libya, the WFP and Ministry of Agriculture and
Livestock signed a memorandum of understanding on food security on November 19 that, among other things, will
pave the way for designing a food security strategy for the country.

West Africa
Although most areas in West Africa are expected to experience minimal food insecurity (IPC Phase 1) because of an
increase in food supplies after recent harvests, Crisis or worse levels of food insecurity continue to be observed in
many conflict-affected areas in the Sahel. In the Diffa region and the extreme south of the Maradi region in Niger,
civil insecurity has led to the evolution of Stressed (IPC Phase 2) into Crisis (IPC Phase 3) conditions since July 2023
because of funding shortfalls in food assistance operations. Crisis levels already observed in July in the north and
west of the Tillaberi region and in the north of Tahoua will persist until January 2024. Given the economic sanctions
that the Economic Community of West African States imposed after the coup d’état in Niger, the situation may
worsen for large shares of the population. Crisis levels will also persist in Loroum, Sanmatenga, Séno, and northern
Yatenga in Burkina Faso; the Lac, Wadi Fira, and Ouaddai regions in Chad; and the southern strip of Ansongo and
Ménaka in Mali. In some areas that insecurity has affected (Bam, Gnagna, Gourma, Kompienga, Mouhoun,

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Namentenga, Sanmatenga, Seno, Sourou, Tapoa, and Yatenga provinces in Burkina Faso; the Bahr El Gazal, Kenem,
Lac, Logone, North-East Guera, East Ouaddai, Tibesti, and Wadifir regions and parts of the Ennedi and Sila regions
in Chad; South Timbuktu and East, North-East, and South-East Mopti in Mali; the Far North region of Cameroon;
the North-East, North-West, and part of North-Central Nigeria), increases in food supplies over the same period will
improve the food security situation from Crisis (IPC Phase 3) to Stressed (IPC Phase 2). Areas that have been
particularly hard hit by violence and conflict (e.g., inaccessible areas in the northeastern states of Nigeria and
Oudalan, Soum, and Yagha provinces in Burkina Faso) face Emergency food insecurity levels (IPC 4+) as households
face reduced food stocks and limited access to markets and humanitarian aid. For example, the communes of Djibo
and Arbinda in Soum have been under blockade by armed groups for approximately two years. In coastal countries,
food price inflation is the main cause of food insecurity. For example, in Nigeria, food inflation rose from 30.6
percent in September to 31.5 percent in October, whereas it dropped from 49.4 percent to 44.8 percent in Ghana.

TRADE POLICY RESPONSES

Trade policies are a major source of risk for global food price stability. This section tracks recent trade policy
announcements as potential sources of such risk. For regular tracking of trade measures, see the Macroeconomics,
Trade, and Investment Global Practice COVID-19 Trade Policy Database for Food and Medical Products, the World
Trade Organization COVID-19 Agriculture Measures Database, and the International Food Policy Research Institute
COVID-19 Food Trade Policy Trade Tracker.

Trade policy actions on food and fertilizer have surged since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, and countries
actively used trade policy to respond to domestic needs when faced with potential food shortages at the beginning
of the COVID-19 pandemic. Active export restrictions on major food commodities are listed in Table 2 and
restrictions on other foods in Table 3. As of November 27, 2023, 19 countries had implemented 27 food export
bans, and 9 had implemented 17 export-limiting measures.

Table 2: Food Trade Policy Tracker (Major Food Commodities)

Jurisdiction Measure Products Announcement Expected
end date
Afghanistan Export ban Wheat 5/20/2022 12/31/2023
Algeria Export ban Sugar, pasta, vegetable oil, wheat derivatives 3/13/2022 12/31/2023
Argentina Export taxes Soybean oil, soybean meal 3/19/2022 12/31/2023
Bangladesh Export ban Rice 6/29/2022 12/31/2023
Burkina Faso Export ban Millet, corn flour, sorghum flours 2/28/2022 12/31/2023
Belarus Export licensing Wheat, rye, barley, oats, corn, buckwheat, millet, triticale, rapeseed, 4/13/2022 12/31/2023
sunflower seeds, beet pulp, cake, rapeseed meal
Cameroon Export ban Cereals, vegetable oil 12/27/2021 12/31/2023
China Export ban Corn starch 10/2/2022 12/31/2023
India Export ban Broken rice 9/8/2022 12/31/2023
India Export ban Wheat 5/13/2022 12/31/2023

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India Export ban Sugar 6/1/2022 10/31/2023
India Export ban Non-basmati rice 7/20/2023 12/31/2023
India Export ban Wheat flour, semolina, maida 8/25/2022 12/31/2023
India Export licensing Wheat flour 7/12/2022 12/31/2023
India Export taxes Basmati rice 8/27/2023 12/31/2023

India Export taxes Parboiled rice 8/25/2023 12/31/2023

India Export taxes Rice 9/9/2022 12/31/2023

Kosovo Export ban Wheat, corn, flour, vegetable oil, salt, sugar 4/15/2022 12/31/2023
Kuwait Export ban Chicken meat 3/23/2022 12/31/2023

Kuwait Export ban Grains, vegetable oil 3/20/2022 12/31/2023

Lebanon Export ban Processed fruits and vegetables, milled grain products, sugar, bread 3/18/2022 12/31/2023
Morocco Export ban Tomatoes, onions, potatoes 2/8/2023 12/31/2023
Myanmar Export licensing Rice 9/2/2023 12/31/2023
Pakistan Export ban Sugar 4/15/2022 12/31/2023
Russia Export ban Rice 7/29/2023 12/31/2023

Russia Export ban Rice, rice groats 6/30/2022 12/31/2023

Russia Export taxes Soya beans 4/14/2022 8/31/2024
Russia Export taxes Sunflower oil, sunflower meal 4/15/2022 12/31/2023
Russia Export taxes Wheat, barley, corn 4/8/2022 12/31/2023
Serbia Export ban Corn, sunflower oil 3/10/2022 12/31/2023
Thailand Export licensing Sugar 10/31/2023 12/31/2023
Tunisia Export ban Fruits and vegetables 4/12/2022 12/31/2023
Türkiye Export licensing Poultry meat, eggs, vegetables, fruits 1/27/2022 12/31/2023
Türkiye Export licensing Grains, oilseeds 3/4/2022 12/31/2023
Türkiye Export ban Cooking oils 3/9/2022 12/31/2023
Uganda Export taxes Maize, rice, soya beans 6/2/2022 12/31/2023

Table 3: Food Trade Policy Tracker (Other Commodities)

Jurisdiction Measure Products Announcement Expected
end date
Argentina Export ban Beef meat 1/1/2022 12/31/2023
Argentina Export licensing Beef meat 1/1/2022 12/31/2023

Azerbaijan Export ban Onions 2/3/2023 12/31/2023

Azerbaijan Export licensing Flour-grinding industry goods, starch, wheat gluten, oilseeds and other 3/19/2022 12/31/2023
seeds, medicinal and industrial crops, feed
Belarus Export ban Apples, cabbages, onions 2/5/2023 12/31/2023
India Export taxes Onions 8/19/2023 12/31/2023
Türkiye Export ban Beans, red lentils 2/27/2022 12/31/2023

15
Türkiye Export ban Beef meat, sheep meat, goat meat 3/19/2022 12/31/2023
Source: International Food Policy Research Institute COVID-19 Food Trade Policy Tracker and Macroeconomics, Trade, and Investment
Global Practice COVID-19 Trade Policy Database for Food and Medical Products.

16
 ANNEX A: FOOD INFLATION NOVEMBER 2022–OCTOBER 2023
(PERCENT CHANGE, YEAR ON YEAR)
Nov-
Country/Economy 22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23

Low Income

Afghanistan 10.8 5.2 3.2 3.1 2.4 -3.3 -5.8 -11.2 -11.2 -12.6
Burkina Faso 19.6 14.7 10.8 7.7 1.4 -1.4 -2.7 -3.6 -5.0 -6.0 -6.3 -5.2
Burundi 39.8 39.1 41.3 40.9 48.9 48.2 43.0 39.5 35.8 39.3 35.3 34.4
Central
African
Republic 16.6 9.0 7.8 -8.6 0.5 0.1 0.6 -3.4 -0.9

Chad 21.6 16.2 17.3 16.6 18.6 18.8 -1.8 -5.7 -0.3
Congo,
Democratic
Republic of 13.6 14.7 14.7 14.7 14.2 15.1 20.0 19.9

Ethiopia 34.2 32.9 33.6 29.6 32.8 31.8 28.4 28.0 27.3 26.5 27.1
Gambia 16.6 17.4 16.9 17.5 19.8 21.5 22.0 23.0 24.3 24.2 24.4 23.2

Guinea 15.7 16.5 18.2 18.3 18.9 18.1 17.1 17.7 13.5 14.0

Liberia -0.5 -2.5 -1.9 -3.3 -5.4 1.4 8.1 13.3 16.5 26.7

Madagascar 12.3 12.6 13.8 14.2 15.5 14.8 14.2 14.2 11.4 10.8 10.2
Malawi 33.4 31.3 30.5 31.7 32.4 37.9 38.8 37.2 39.3 39.4 36.8 34.4
Mali 14.4 12.1 8.8 7.9 11.8 6.8 1.7 1.4 0.2 -1.6 -0.9 -2.9
Mozambique 15.2 14.6 16.1 17.0 18.5 17.3 14.3 6.8 4.8 3.6 2.9 3.1
Niger 5.2 3.9 1.4 -0.6 0.0 -0.3 -1.9 0.1 3.0 6.1 12.6 11.1
Rwanda 64.4 59.2 57.3 59.8 62.6 54.6 39.6 35.7 29.2 30.7 33.1 22.5

Sierra Leone 43.6 46.7 47.5 50.2 49.5 52.3 55.8 58.0 59.9 62.8 64.7
Somalia 12.7 9.4 6.7 5.4 5.0 6.6 2.3 0.4 -1.2 -2.1 -4.1 -5.2
South Sudan -10.5 -25.0 11.4 8.2 -7.0 -23.8 -14.2 -11.4 -14.2 -18.4 -10.4 -17.7

Sudan
Togo 9.1 6.7 5.5 1.6 3.6 4.6 2.1 3.4 5.6 2.0 1.7 5.4
17
Uganda 27.8 29.4 27.6 27.3 26.8 25.3 15.7 12.3 9.3 9.8 7.9 6.7
Lower Middle Income

Algeria 11.6 13.3 13.5 13.9 14.3 13.0 13.8 11.5 12.3 16.1 15.2 10.9
Angola 20.3 18.9 17.1 15.8 14.9 14.2 13.6 13.2 12.9 12.8 12.9 13.1
Bangladesh 8.1 7.9 7.8 8.1 9.1 8.8 9.2 9.7 9.8 12.5 12.4 12.6

Belize 10.3 13.8 15.3 14.5 15.9 12.2 11.9 12.0 12.3 12.2 11.7
Benin 1.2 -0.4 -1.9 8.9 10.9 4.1 4.7 2.1 1.3 -3.8 -4.9 -8.3

Bhutan 2.2 1.5 1.5 1.9 0.8 1.8 3.2 4.7 5.3 5.8 6.1
Bolivia 6.4 6.6 6.8 4.6 5.0 5.7 6.1 5.3 5.2 6.3 5.3 3.0
Cabo Verde 17.2 15.8 15.6 16.6 10.8 9.4 8.0 8.2 8.1 8.8 7.6 5.3

Cambodia 4.1 3.8 3.7 3.1 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.0 3.1 4.2

Cameroon 16.4 13.7 14.1 13.7 12.9 11.5 11.6 12.1

Congo, Rep. 6.0 6.2 6.7 5.5 2.7 4.0 4.1 4.5 3.4 3.4 4.3 3.7
Cote d`Ivoire 8.5 6.7 6.0 5.6 7.4 7.6 6.8 5.9 7.8 5.6 6.5 5.8

Djibouti 8.4 9.9 7.8 4.4 1.3 0.9 -11.3 2.6

East Timor 7.2 10.2 10.9 9.2 7.7 8.0 8.4 9.8 11.4 11.2
Egypt 30.0 37.3 47.9 61.8 63.0 54.8 60.0 65.8 68.3 71.4 73.6 71.3
El Salvador 12.1 12.2 12.2 12.6 11.6 10.4 8.4 6.9 6.4 6.1 6.0 5.9

Eswatini 14.7 15.1 15.5 17.0 16.0 14.7 15.7 15.4 13.0 10.7 9.9
Ghana 55.3 59.7 61.0 59.1 50.8 48.7 51.8 54.2 55.0 51.9 49.3 44.8

Haiti 47.7 48.6 48 48.1 47.9 45.8 43.3 38 35.3 29.3 20.6
Honduras 18.1 16.2 17.2 18.2 17.3 15.3 12.6 10.8 9.0 8.4 9.3 8.5
India 5.1 4.6 6.2 6.3 5.1 4.2 3.3 4.7 10.6 9.2 6.3 6.2
Indonesia 5.8 5.7 5.7 7.2 5.7 3.8 3.4 1.7 0.6 2.6 3.6 5.2
Iran, Islamic
Republic of 68.4 66.0 72.4 73.0 79.5 80.3 77.5 42.7 36.7 38.0 37.4 35.7
Kenya 15.5 13.9 12.9 13.3 13.5 10.2 10.3 10.4 8.7 7.6 8.0 7.9
Kyrgyzstan 17.2 15.8 16.8 18.3 12.7 8.9 8.2 6.6 6.7 5.5 5.7 5.5

18
Lao People`s
Democratic
Republic 42.7 45.9 47.1 49.3 51.0 52.2 52.7 42.7 37.8 31.8 29.4 29.0
Lesotho 9.9 10.3 9.2 10.9 8.8 7.8 9.6 8.3 6.0 5.9 6.2 7.3
Mauritania 14.7 15.4 15.9 16.2 16.2 15.7 15.0 14.0 12.8 11.5 10.2 8.5
Mongolia 16.8 15.4 14.0 16.2 17.4 17.1 18.4 18.2 14.4 16.3 17.3 14.8
Morocco 14.4 15.0 16.8 20.1 16.1 16.3 15.6 12.7 11.7 10.4 9.9 8.8

Myanmar
Nepal 7.4 5.8 5.6 6.2 5.6 6.9 5.5 5.7 7.4 9.0 9.7
Nicaragua 16.6 15.9 15.7 15.2 13.9 12.7 13.0 13.8 10.3 9.0 8.6 6.5
Nigeria 24.1 23.7 24.3 24.3 24.4 24.6 24.8 25.2 27.0 29.3 30.6 31.5
Pakistan 31.2 35.5 42.9 45.1 47.2 48.1 48.7 39.5 39.5 38.5 33.1 26.8
Palestine,
State of 6.3 6.9 4.2 5.4 2.9 1.8 2.2 2.2 4.1 6.2 5.9 7.0
Papua New
Guinea 9.5 8.7 7.4
Philippines 10.3 10.6 11.2 11.1 9.5 8.0 7.5 6.7 6.3 8.2 10.0 7.1

Samoa
Senegal 21.4 18.8 13.7 11.6 11.9 11.5 10.4 9.5 6.9 6.6 4.0 2.3
Sri Lanka 69.8 58.5 53.6 49.0 42.3 27.1 15.8 2.5 -1.4 -5.4 -5.2 -5.2

Tajikistan 5.3 5.5 4.3 3.7 1.3 1.1 1.0 4.2 5.8
Tanzania,
United
Republic of 9.5 9.7 9.9 9.6 9.7 9.1 8.5 7.8 6.1 5.6 5.6 4.5
Tunisia 15.7 15.1 14.6 16.1 16.3 16.2 16.4 15.6 14.4 15.6 14.1 13.2
Ukraine 35.2 34.4 32.8 31.5 26.5 21.7 19.7 16.1 12.8 7.7 5.2 2.0
Uzbekistan 16.2 15.9 15.6 15.7 14.7 13.7 12.9 10.4 10.6 10.5 11.0 10.9
Vietnam 6.9 7.9 8.9 9.9 10.9 11.9 12.9 13.9 14.9 15.9 16.9 17.9

Zambia 12.1 11.6 11.6 11.8 11.6 11.6 11.2 12.1 12.7 13.4 13.6
Zimbabwe 376.0 285.0 264.0 137.0 128.0 102.0 117.0 256.0 103.0 70.8 23.1 23.1
Upper Middle Income

Albania 15.4 14.8 13.9 14.0 11.5 10.1 10.7 10.8 9.5 8.0 8.3 7.8
19
Argentina 94.2 95.0 98.4 102.6 106.6 115.0 117.8 116.9 116.3 133.5 150.1 153.8
Armenia 11.1 10.0 9.4 9.9 5.1 1.1 -2.2 -5.7 -4.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.8
Azerbaijan 20.2 19.1 17.5 17.2 16.9 15.3 12.9 11.7 9.9 7.6 4.7 3.2
Belarus 14.4 13.8 12.9 12.8 9.0 5.5 3.7 3.2 3.5 3.2 2.4 4.2
Bosnia and
Herzegovina 26.0 24.5 23.0 22.1 19.8 13.0 11.2 10.2 8.6 7.8 6.0 4.4
Botswana 16.3 17.0 17.2 17.3 17.8 16.5 14.3 12.8 10.7 9.0 7.7 6.5
Brazil 11.8 11.6 11.1 9.8 7.3 5.9 5.5 4.0 2.2 1.1 0.9 0.5
Bulgaria 26.1 25.6 24.6 23.5 20.8 15.8 14.4 13.4 13.5 12.3 10.4 7.7
China 3.7 4.8 6.2 2.7 2.5 0.5 1.1 2.3 -1.7 -1.7 -3.3 -4.2
Colombia 27.3 28.0 26.2 24.0 21.6 18.2 15.3 14.0 12.8 12.0 11.2 10.1
Costa Rica 19.9 19.1 18.6 14.5 12.4 10.1 7.9 3.9 -1.2 -2.6 -3.3 -4.0

Dominica
Dominican
Republic 10.0 11.8 12.0 10.2 9.1 8.0 6.1 5.4 6.3 8.2 9.0 8.7
Ecuador 8.2 8.4 6.2 5.7 6.5 5.8 4.7 4.4 6.4 8.9 7.5 6.5
Equatorial
Guinea 4.5 5.0 4.5 4.3 4.1 2.9 0.5 -1.2 1.9 1.3 2.5
Fiji 9.6 7.1 7.0 3.2 5.3 4.8 8.1 9.0 8.0 7.0 8.4 8.6

Gabon 8.8 8.6 8.3 7.6 7.0 7.4 6.3 5.0 4.1
Georgia 16.8 16.2 15.1 14.1 11.8 6.0 3.4 0.0 1.2 2.4 0.4 -1.2

Grenada
Guatemala 12.1 11.8 13.3 15.4 14.6 13.3 11.2 8.0 6.5 6.5 7.4 9.2

Guyana 13.4 14.1 12 12.6 10 6.9 6.4 4.7 3.2 1.3 2.8

Iraq 6.5 6.7 9.9 9.5 8.9 6.1 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.7
Jamaica 14.2 13.7 12.7 11.3 10.1 10.3 10.7 10.3 11.3 10.9 9.8 8.3
Jordan 3.1 0.6 -0.4 1.0 0.7 0.8 -1.9 -0.1 0.6 1.2 1.3 1.7
Kazakhstan 24.4 25.6 26.0 26.2 20.5 17.9 16.5 14.6 13.5 12.4 11.4 10.4
Kosovo,
Republic of 19.6 19.4 19.7 18.8 14.4 11.0 9.2 8.9 6.0 5.3 5.2 3.3
Lebanon 171.2 142.9 138.5 260.5 352.3 350.0 304.2 279.5 278.5 274.2 239.0 218.1

Libya 3.8 4.2 4.1 4.2 3.5 3.3 3.8 3.5 3.4
20
Malaysia 7.4 6.8 6.8 7.1 6.9 6.3 5.9 4.7 4.3 4.2 4.0 3.6

Maldives 5.7 6.6 7.8 7.6 8.0 6.4 4.7 4.5 4.5 3.8 5.5
Mauritius 17.0 16.9 16.0 11.4 7.4 5.9 9.6 13.6 8.3 7.4 5.1 4.2
Mexico 12.4 12.7 12.8 12.3 11.0 10.0 9.1 7.7 7.3 6.8 5.9 4.9
Moldova,
Republic of 33.1 31.8 29.1 26.9 22.4 16.5 14.0 13.1 11.4 9.5 8.0 5.4
Montenegro 31.0 29.8 26.4 24.3 14.8 12.0 11.0 10.9 10.2 10.7 7.6 3.8
Namibia 9.5 12.0 14.3 14.4 14.9 13.9 13.0 11.9 10.8 10.2 9.7 9.2
North
Macedonia,
Republic of 30.8 28.0 25.9 26.1 22.3 16.8 14.9 12.3 12.1 11.0 7.8 0.7
Panama 4.7 5.2 5.3 5.2 4.9 4.8 4.2 3.4 2.3 2.0 2.4 1.8
Paraguay 11.1 9.2 7.7 6.8 7.2 7.1 7.5 6.3 5.3 3.2 4.0 4.4
Peru 12.0 15.2 15.9 16.3 15.6 14.5 16.4 12.9 12.0 11.0 8.8 6.8
Romania 21.5 22.0 22.5 22.3 21.6 19.8 18.7 17.9 16.2 11.9 10.4 8.7
Russian
Federation 11.1 10.3 10.2 9.3 2.6 0.0 -0.9 0.2 2.2 3.6 4.9 6.0

Saint Lucia
Saint Vincent
and the
Grenadines
Serbia 23.5 24.4 24.7 26.0 27.0 24.3 24.5 23.0 21.1 17.2 14.7 10.3
South Africa 12.9 12.8 14.1 14.1 14.5 14.3 12.0 11.1 10.1 8.2 8.2 9.0
Suriname 54.9 61.4 58.4 58.7 59.4 67.0 70.5 72.6 70.3 64.4 59.0 46.8
Thailand 8.4 8.9 7.7 5.7 5.2 4.5 4.0 3.4 1.5 0.7 -0.1 -0.6
Turkey 102.0 76.8 70.1 68.6 67.1 53.1 52.1 54.1 61.0 73.6 75.7 72.1

Venezuela 168.6 257.4 389.9 477.6 489.3 470.8 450.1 414.1 402.6 405.9 318.1
High Income

Antigua and
Barbuda
Aruba 13.6 13.3 12.8 11.8 10.6 9.4 8.1 6.4 6.0 4.4 4.5

Australia 9.2 8.0 7.5 4.8

21
Austria 15.2 16.3 17.4 16.5 14.7 13.2 12.1 10.6 10.3 9.5 8.0 6.8

Bahamas
Bahrain 12.7 11.5 6.6 4.3 4.8 6.7 3.1 6.1 7.6 9.2 7.9

Barbados 18.8 19.5 4.3 3.4 4.3 4.6 4.6 4.3 5.5
Belgium 14.5 14.5 15.6 16.1 17.0 16.6 15.5 14.4 13.2 12.7 11.2 9.0

Bermuda 10.4 10.3 10.1 9.2 9.4 9.3 8.3 6.8

Brunei
Darussalam 6.3 5.5 5.1 4.8 3.9 2.8 2.8 2.2 1.3 0.7
Canada 10.3 10.1 10.4 9.7 8.9 8.3 8.3 8.3 7.8 6.8 5.9 5.6
Cayman
Islands 14.0 12.3 7.0
Chile 24.7 25.2 24.8 22.0 17.9 14.7 12.7 11.9 10.9 8.9 8.0 8.0
Croatia 19.6 19.6 17.8 17.7 18.2 16.1 15.2 14.8 12.4 10.9 10.4 8.6
Cyprus 15.5 12.2 10.3 9.3 6.5 6.1 8.0 9.9 9.5 9.7 9.5 5.1
Czech
Republic 27.1 26.4 25.6 24.6 24.0 17.5 14.5 11.6 9.2 7.5 5.4 3.2
Denmark 16.0 15.6 15.0 15.3 16.1 13.0 10.6 8.7 6.2 4.6 4.7 3.5
Estonia 28.2 29.8 27.4 25.2 24.7 23.4 20.4 19.5 16.4 12.9 9.7 6.7

Faroe Islands 13.2 13.3 11.3 8.0

Finland 16.0 16.0 15.3 16.3 16.2 13.7 11.1 9.2 8.2 6.8 4.6 4.0
France 13.3 13.1 14.4 16.1 17.2 15.9 15.0 14.3 13.2 11.6 9.8 7.8
Germany 21.0 20.4 20.2 21.8 22.3 17.2 14.9 13.7 11.0 9.0 7.5 6.1
Greece 15.3 15.7 15.7 15.0 14.5 11.4 11.5 12.2 12.4 10.7 9.4 9.9
Hong Kong
SAR, China 3.5 3.8 5.0 2.5 1.6 2.6 2.7 2.4 2.1 2.3 3.0 2.9
Hungary 43.8 44.8 44.0 43.3 42.6 37.9 33.5 29.3 23.1 19.5 15.2 10.4
Iceland 10.4 10.2 11.0 12.2 12.4 12.5 12.5 12.1 12.5 12.2 12.4 11.8
Ireland 11.7 12.1 12.9 13.3 13.3 13.1 12.6 10.1 8.5 7.7 7.5 6.8
Israel 5.2 4.6 4.0 3.9 4.5 4.4 3.3 4.4 4.6 4.5 4.7 4.6
Italy 13.7 13.3 12.5 13.2 13.2 12.0 11.7 10.9 10.8 9.9 8.6 6.4
Japan 7.5 7.9 7.8 8.1 8.3 9.2 9.6 9.8 10.1 10.3 9.9 8.6

22
Korea,
Republic of 4.7 5.2 5.5 5.5 6.1 4.8 3.6 3.8 3.0 4.6 4.9 6.6
Kuwait 7.1 7.8 7.8 7.4 7.9 8.0 7.2 6.6 6.1 6.0 5.9 6.0
Latvia 30.0 29.3 28.4 25.2 24.3 19.9 17.2 14.0 10.9 7.5 5.1 3.6
Lithuania 36.1 35.0 33.4 30.7 28.0 21.9 18.0 14.3 12.5 10.7 8.6 5.6
Luxembourg 10.4 10.9 11.8 13.1 13.3 12.5 12.2 11.2 10.5 9.9 8.9 7.9
Macao SAR,
China 1.6 1.9 2.4 2.2 2.3 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.4 2.5 2.7 2.8
Malta 12.5 12.7 10.6 12.2 11.8 10.2 10.0 10.1 8.8 9.3 8.8 6.8
Netherlands 15.7 17.0 17.6 18.4 18.4 15.9 15.2 13.1 11.7 9.7 9.4 7.9
New
Caledonia 8.7 10.9 8.7 7.3 6.8 6.9 7.9 6.8 6.7 4.0 0.8 1.1
New Zealand 10.7 11.3 10.3 12.0 12.1 12.5 12.1 12.5 9.6 8.9 8.0 6.3
Norway 12.6 11.1 12.0 9.0 8.8 10.8 13.2 13.7 9.2 9.3 7.7 8.6
Oman 5.0 5.0 4.8 5.1 4.1 2.7 2.7 2.2 1.3 3.0 3.4 1.7
Poland 23.0 22.1 21.2 24.8 24.7 19.9 18.9 17.8 15.6 12.7 10.4 7.8
Portugal 20.6 20.4 21.0 21.9 20.0 15.5 9.2 8.3 7.0 6.6 6.3 4.2
Qatar 0.3 1.5 -0.6 -1.9 0.7 1.4 -2.2 -0.7 1.0 0.5 1.9 3.9
Saint Kitts and
Nevis
Saudi Arabia 3.7 4.3 4.3 3.1 2.3 0.8 0.7 0.8 1.1 0.0 -0.6 0.6
Seychelles 2.6 2.9 3.1 1.9 2.0 1.8 -0.4 -2.2 -3.1 -2.8 -2.5 -2.9
Singapore 7.3 7.5 8.1 8.1 7.7 7.1 6.8 5.9 5.3 4.8 4.3 4.1
Slovakia 27.8 28.1 27.5 27.8 28.1 25.4 21.7 18.9 16.5 13.5 11.2 9.0
Slovenia 19.4 18.9 19.4 18.3 19.1 15.6 14.7 12.1 10.7 10.0 8.7 6.9
Spain 15.7 15.9 15.5 16.7 16.5 12.8 11.9 10.2 10.8 10.4 10.5 9.3
Sweden 18.6 18.6 20.4 22.1 20.6 17.5 14.8 13.0 10.8 9.2 7.9 6.7
Switzerland 4.4 4.0 5.6 6.5 6.7 5.4 5.4 5.2 5.3 4.3 3.8 3.3
Taiwan, China 4.1 4.9 5.3 4.3 4.9 4.2 3.0 1.4 1.3 3.4 4.8 5.5
Trinidad and
Tobago 13.8 17.3 17.3 14.0 13.0 11.2 9.7 10.1 8.6 5.6 4.7
United Arab
Emirates 6.7 6.1 5.5 6.3 6.3 5.8 4.8 3.9 3.2 3.3 4.0

23
United
Kingdom 16.7 17.0 17.0 18.5 19.8 19.5 18.9 17.5 15.0 13.5 12.3 10.1
United States 10.6 10.4 10.1 9.5 8.5 7.7 6.7 5.7 4.9 4.3 3.7 3.3
Uruguay 10.6 11.8 12.9 10.9 10.9 13.6 13.3 10.5 8.7 6.9 4.7 4.9

Source: International Monetary Fund, Haven, and Trading Economics data. Food inflation is calculated from the food and non-alcoholic
beverages component of the Consumer Price Index for each country.

Color code Indicator

Price increase less than 2 percent

Price increase between 2 and 5 percent

Price increase between 5 and 30 percent

Price increase 30 percent or higher

Note: The food price inflation tracker shows monthly food inflation (year on year) from January 2022 for countries
for which data are available; blank (white) cells indicate missing data. The International Monetary Fund is the core
data source for food inflation, supplemented by Trading Economics. A traffic light approach was adopted to show
the severity of food inflation, and the color coding was determined based on historical food price inflation targets
and expert consultation with the World Bank Agriculture and Food Unit. Purple indicates price increases greater
than 30 percent, red indicates a year-on-year increase of 5 to 30 percent, yellow indicates a year-on-year increase
of 2 to 5 percent, and green indicates a year-on-year increase of less than 2 percent.

The heat map shows the latest available nominal and real monthly food inflation (year on year) data for countries
for which data are available. The International Monetary Fund is the core data source for food inflation,
supplemented by Trading Economics. Real food inflation is calculated as the difference between food inflation and
overall inflation. A traffic light approach was adopted to show the severity of nominal food inflation, and the color
coding was determined based on historical food price inflation targets and expert consultation with the World Bank
Agriculture and Food Unit. Blank (gray) cells indicate countries with no data in the last 4 months. For nominal food
price inflation, purple indicates inflation increases greater than 30 percent, red indicates a year-on-year increase of
5 to 30 percent, yellow indicates a year-on-year increase of 2 to 5 percent, and green indicates a year-on-year
increase of less than 2 percent. For real food inflation, purple indicates inflation increases greater than 5 percent,
red indicates a year-on-year increase of 2 to 5 percent, yellow indicates a year-on-year increase of 0 to 2 percent,
and green indicates a year-on-year change of less than 0 percent.

24
© 2022 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank
1818 H Street NW
Washington DC 20433
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