Forecasting

Roberta Russell & Bernard W. Taylor, III

Beni Asllani
Copyright John Wiley & Sons, Inc. University of Tennessee at Chattanooga
 Lecture Outline

 Strategic Role of Forecasting in Supply

Chain Management
 Components of Forecasting Demand
 Time Series Methods
 Forecast Accuracy
 Time Series Forecasting Using Excel
 Regression Methods

Copyright John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 12-2

 Forecasting

 Predicting the future

 Qualitative forecast methods
◼ subjective
 Quantitative forecast
methods
◼ based on mathematical
formulas

Copyright John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 12-3

 Forecasting and Supply Chain
Management
 Accurate forecasting determines how much
inventory a company must keep at various points
along its supply chain
 Continuous replenishment
◼ supplier and customer share continuously updated data
◼ typically managed by the supplier
◼ reduces inventory for the company
◼ speeds customer delivery
 Variations of continuous replenishment
◼ quick response
◼ JIT (just-in-time)
◼ VMI (vendor-managed inventory)
◼ stockless inventory

Copyright John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 12-4

 Forecasting

 Quality Management
◼ Accurately forecasting customer demand is
a key to providing good quality service
 Strategic Planning
◼ Successful strategic planning requires
accurate forecasts of future products and
markets

Copyright John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 12-5

 Types of Forecasting Methods

 Depend on
◼ time frame
◼ demand behavior
◼ causes of behavior

Copyright John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 12-6

 Time Frame

 Indicates how far into the future is

forecast
◼ Short- to mid-range forecast
⚫ typically encompasses the immediate future
⚫ daily up to two years

◼ Long-range forecast
⚫ usually encompasses a period of time longer
than two years

Copyright John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 12-7

 Demand Behavior

 Trend
◼ a gradual, long-term up or down movement of
demand
 Random variations
◼ movements in demand that do not follow a pattern
 Cycle
◼ an up-and-down repetitive movement in demand
 Seasonal pattern
◼ an up-and-down repetitive movement in demand
occurring periodically

Copyright John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 12-8

 Forms of Forecast Movement

Demand
Demand

Random
movement

Time Time
(a) Trend (b) Cycle

Demand
Demand

Time Time
(c) Seasonal pattern (d) Trend with seasonal pattern

Copyright John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 12-9

 Forecasting Methods
 Time series
◼ statistical techniques that use historical demand data
to predict future demand
 Regression methods
◼ attempt to develop a mathematical relationship
between demand and factors that cause its behavior
 Qualitative
◼ use management judgment, expertise, and opinion to
predict future demand

Copyright John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 12-10

 Qualitative Methods

 Management, marketing, purchasing,

and engineering are sources for internal
qualitative forecasts
 Delphi method
◼ involves soliciting forecasts about
technological advances from experts

Copyright John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 12-11

 Forecasting Process
1. Identify the 2. Collect historical 3. Plot data and identify
purpose of forecast data patterns

6. Check forecast 5. Develop/compute 4. Select a forecast

accuracy with one or forecast for period of model that seems
more measures historical data appropriate for data

7.
Is accuracy of No 8b. Select new
forecast forecast model or
acceptable? adjust parameters of
existing model
Yes
9. Adjust forecast based 10. Monitor results
8a. Forecast over
on additional qualitative and measure forecast
planning horizon
information and insight accuracy

Copyright John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 12-12

 Time Series

 Assume that what has occurred in the past will

continue to occur in the future
 Relate the forecast to only one factor - time
 Include
◼ moving average
◼ exponential smoothing
◼ linear trend line

Copyright John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 12-13

 Moving Average

 Naive forecast
◼ demand in current period is used as next period’s
forecast
 Simple moving average
◼ uses average demand for a fixed sequence of
periods
◼ stable demand with no pronounced behavioral
patterns
 Weighted moving average
◼ weights are assigned to most recent data

Copyright John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 12-14

 Moving Average:
Naïve Approach
ORDERS
MONTH PER MONTH FORECAST

Jan 120 -
Feb 90 120
Mar 100 90
Apr 75 100
May 110 75
June 50 110
July 75 50
Aug 130 75
Sept 110 130
Oct 90 110
Nov - 90
Copyright John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 12-15
 Simple Moving Average

n

i=1
Di
MAn =
n
where

n = number of periods in
the moving average
Di = demand in period i

Copyright John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 12-16

 3-month Simple Moving Average

MONTH
ORDERS
PER MONTH
MOVING
AVERAGE

i=1
Di
MA3 =
Jan 120 – 3
Feb 90 –
Mar 100 – 90 + 110 + 130
Apr 75 103.3 = 3
May 110 88.3
June 50 95.0
July 75 78.3 = 110 orders
Aug 130 78.3 for Nov
Sept 110 85.0
Oct 90 105.0
Nov - 110.0

Copyright John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 12-17

 5-month Simple Moving Average

ORDERS MOVING
5
MONTH PER MONTH AVERAGE
 Di
Jan 120 – i=1
Feb 90 – MA5 =
5
Mar 100 –
Apr 75 – 90 + 110 + 130+75+50
May 110 – = 5
June 50 99.0
July 75 85.0
Aug 130 82.0 = 91 orders
Sept 110 88.0 for Nov
Oct 90 95.0
Nov - 91.0

Copyright John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 12-18

 Smoothing Effects
150 –

125 – 5-month

100 –
Orders

75 –

50 – 3-month

Actual
25 –

0– | | | | | | | | | | |
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov
Month

Copyright John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 12-19

 Weighted Moving Average
n

▪ Adjusts WMAn =  Wi Di
i=1
moving
average where
method to Wi = the weight for period i,
more closely between 0 and 100
percent
reflect data
fluctuations  Wi = 1.00

Copyright John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 12-20

 Weighted Moving Average Example

MONTH WEIGHT DATA

August 17% 130
September 33% 110
October 50% 90
3
November Forecast WMA3 = 
i=1
Wi Di

= (0.50)(90) + (0.33)(110) + (0.17)(130)

= 103.4 orders

Copyright John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 12-21

 Exponential Smoothing

▪ Averaging method
▪ Weights most recent data more strongly
▪ Reacts more to recent changes
▪ Widely used, accurate method

Copyright John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 12-22

 Exponential Smoothing (cont.)

Ft +1 =  Dt + (1 - )Ft
where:
Ft +1 = forecast for next period
Dt = actual demand for present period
Ft = previously determined forecast for
present period
= weighting factor, smoothing constant

Copyright John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 12-23

 Effect of Smoothing Constant

0.0    1.0
If  = 0.20, then Ft +1 = 0.20 Dt + 0.80 Ft

If  = 0, then Ft +1 = 0 Dt + 1 Ft = Ft
Forecast does not reflect recent data

If  = 1, then Ft +1 = 1 Dt + 0 Ft = Dt
Forecast based only on most recent data

Copyright John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 12-24

 Exponential Smoothing (α=0.30)

PERIOD MONTH DEMAND F2 = D1 + (1 - )F1

1 Jan 37 = (0.30)(37) + (0.70)(37)
2 Feb 40 = 37
3 Mar 41
4 Apr 37 F3 = D2 + (1 - )F2
5 May 45 = (0.30)(40) + (0.70)(37)
6 Jun 50
= 37.9
7 Jul 43
8 Aug 47
F13 = D12 + (1 - )F12
9 Sep 56
10 Oct 52 = (0.30)(54) + (0.70)(50.84)
11 Nov 55 = 51.79
12 Dec 54

Copyright John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 12-25

 Exponential Smoothing (cont.)
FORECAST, Ft + 1
PERIOD MONTH DEMAND ( = 0.3) ( = 0.5)
1 Jan 37 – –
2 Feb 40 37.00 37.00
3 Mar 41 37.90 38.50
4 Apr 37 38.83 39.75
5 May 45 38.28 38.37
6 Jun 50 40.29 41.68
7 Jul 43 43.20 45.84
8 Aug 47 43.14 44.42
9 Sep 56 44.30 45.71
10 Oct 52 47.81 50.85
11 Nov 55 49.06 51.42
12 Dec 54 50.84 53.21
13 Jan – 51.79 53.61

Copyright John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 12-26

 Exponential Smoothing (cont.)
70 –

60 – Actual  = 0.50

50 –

40 –
Orders

 = 0.30
30 –

20 –

10 –

0– | | | | | | | | | | | | |
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Month

Copyright John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 12-27

 Adjusted Exponential Smoothing

AFt +1 = Ft +1 + Tt +1
where
T = an exponentially smoothed trend factor

Tt +1 = (Ft +1 - Ft) + (1 - ) Tt
where
Tt = the last period trend factor
 = a smoothing constant for trend

Copyright John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 12-28

 Adjusted Exponential
Smoothing (β=0.30)
PERIOD MONTH DEMAND T3 = (F3 - F2) + (1 - ) T2
1 Jan 37 = (0.30)(38.5 - 37.0) + (0.70)(0)
2 Feb 40 = 0.45
3 Mar 41
4 Apr 37 AF3 = F3 + T3 = 38.5 + 0.45
5 May 45 = 38.95
6 Jun 50
7 Jul 43 T13 = (F13 - F12) + (1 - ) T12
8 Aug 47 = (0.30)(53.61 - 53.21) + (0.70)(1.77)
9 Sep 56
= 1.36
10 Oct 52
11 Nov 55
12 Dec 54 AF13 = F13 + T13 = 53.61 + 1.36 = 54.97

Copyright John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 12-29

 Adjusted Exponential Smoothing:
Example
FORECAST TREND ADJUSTED
PERIOD MONTH DEMAND Ft +1 T t +1 FORECAST AFt +1

1 Jan 37 37.00 – –
2 Feb 40 37.00 0.00 37.00
3 Mar 41 38.50 0.45 38.95
4 Apr 37 39.75 0.69 40.44
5 May 45 38.37 0.07 38.44
6 Jun 50 38.37 0.07 38.44
7 Jul 43 45.84 1.97 47.82
8 Aug 47 44.42 0.95 45.37
9 Sep 56 45.71 1.05 46.76
10 Oct 52 50.85 2.28 58.13
11 Nov 55 51.42 1.76 53.19
12 Dec 54 53.21 1.77 54.98
13 Jan – 53.61 1.36 54.96
Copyright John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 12-30
 Adjusted Exponential Smoothing
Forecasts
70 –
Adjusted forecast ( = 0.30)
60 –
Actual
50 –

40 –
Demand

30 – Forecast ( = 0.50)

20 –

10 –

0– | | | | | | | | | | | | |
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Period
Copyright John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 12-31
 Linear Trend Line

 xy - nxy
y = a + bx b =
 x2 - nx2
a = y-bx
where
a = intercept where
b = slope of the line n = number of periods
x = time period
x
y = forecast for x = = mean of the x values
demand for period x n
y
y = n = mean of the y values

Copyright John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 12-32

 Least Squares Example
x(PERIOD) y(DEMAND) xy x2
1 73 37 1
2 40 80 4
3 41 123 9
4 37 148 16
5 45 225 25
6 50 300 36
7 43 301 49
8 47 376 64
9 56 504 81
10 52 520 100
11 55 605 121
12 54 648 144
78 557 3867 650

Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 12-33

 Least Squares Example
(cont.)
78
x = = 6.5
12
557
y = = 46.42
12
xy - nxy 3867 - (12)(6.5)(46.42)
b = = =1.72
x - nx
2 2
650 - 12(6.5) 2

a = y - bx
= 46.42 - (1.72)(6.5) = 35.2

Copyright John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 12-34

 Linear trend line y = 35.2 + 1.72x
Forecast for period 13 y = 35.2 + 1.72(13) = 57.56 units

70 –

60 –
Actual

50 –
Demand

40 –
Linear trend line
30 –

20 –

10 – | | | | | | | | | | | | |
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
0– Period

Copyright John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 12-35

 Seasonal Adjustments

▪ Repetitive increase/ decrease in demand

▪ Use seasonal factor to adjust forecast

Di
Seasonal factor = Si = D

Copyright John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 12-36

 Seasonal Adjustment (cont.)
DEMAND (1000’S PER QUARTER)
YEAR 1 2 3 4 Total
2002 12.6 8.6 6.3 17.5 45.0
2003 14.1 10.3 7.5 18.2 50.1
2004 15.3 10.6 8.1 19.6 53.6
Total 42.0 29.5 21.9 55.3 148.7

D1 42.0 D3 21.9
S1 = = = 0.28 S3 = = = 0.15
D 148.7 D 148.7
D2 29.5 D4 55.3
S2 = = = 0.20 S4 = = = 0.37
D 148.7 D 148.7

Copyright John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 12-37

 Seasonal Adjustment (cont.)

For 2005

y = 40.97 + 4.30x = 40.97 + 4.30(4) = 58.17

SF1 = (S1) (F5) = (0.28)(58.17) = 16.28

SF2 = (S2) (F5) = (0.20)(58.17) = 11.63
SF3 = (S3) (F5) = (0.15)(58.17) = 8.73
SF4 = (S4) (F5) = (0.37)(58.17) = 21.53

Copyright John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 12-38

 Forecast Accuracy

 Forecast error
◼ difference between forecast and actual demand
◼ MAD
⚫ mean absolute deviation
◼ MAPD
⚫ mean absolute percent deviation
◼ Cumulative error
◼ Average error or bias

Copyright John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 12-39

 Mean Absolute Deviation
(MAD)

 Dt - Ft 
MAD = n
where
t = period number
Dt = demand in period t
Ft = forecast for period t
n = total number of periods
  = absolute value

Copyright John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 12-40

 MAD Example
PERIOD DEMAND, Dt Ft ( =0.3) (Dt - Ft) |Dt - Ft|
1 37 37.00 – –
2 40 37.00 3.00 3.00
3
4
41
37
 D t - Ft  -1.83
37.90
38.83
3.10 3.10
1.83
5
MAD
45
= n
38.28 6.72 6.72
6 50 40.29 9.69 9.69
7 43
53.39
43.20 -0.20 0.20
=
8 47 11
43.14 3.86 3.86
9 56 44.30 11.70 11.70
10 52 = 4.8547.81 4.19 4.19
11 55 49.06 5.94 5.94
12 54 50.84 3.15 3.15
557 49.31 53.39

Copyright John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 12-41

 Other Accuracy Measures

Mean absolute percent deviation (MAPD)

|Dt - Ft|
MAPD =
Dt
Cumulative error
E = et
Average error
et
E= n
Copyright John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 12-42
 Comparison of Forecasts

FORECAST MAD MAPD E (E)

Exponential smoothing ( = 0.30) 4.85 9.6% 49.31 4.48
Exponential smoothing ( = 0.50) 4.04 8.5% 33.21 3.02
Adjusted exponential smoothing 3.81 7.5% 21.14 1.92
( = 0.50,  = 0.30)
Linear trend line 2.29 4.9% – –

Copyright John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 12-43

 Forecast Control

 Tracking signal
◼ monitors the forecast to see if it is biased
high or low
(Dt - Ft) E
Tracking signal = MAD =
MAD
◼ 1 MAD ≈ 0.8 б
◼ Control limits of 2 to 5 MADs are used most
frequently

Copyright John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 12-44

 Tracking Signal Values
DEMAND FORECAST, ERROR E = TRACKING
PERIOD Dt Ft Dt - Ft (Dt - Ft) MAD SIGNAL

1 37 37.00 – – – –
2 40 37.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 1.00
3 41 37.90 3.10 6.10 3.05 2.00
4 37 38.83 -1.83 4.27 2.64 1.62
5 45 38.28
Tracking 6.72 for period
signal 10.99 3 3.66 3.00
6 50 40.29 9.69 20.68 4.87 4.25
7 43 43.20 -0.20
6.10 20.48 4.09 5.01
8 47 43.14
TS3 = 3.86 =24.34 2.00 4.06 6.00
9 56 44.30 3.05
11.70 36.04 5.01 7.19
10 52 47.81 4.19 40.23 4.92 8.18
11 55 49.06 5.94 46.17 5.02 9.20
12 54 50.84 3.15 49.32 4.85 10.17

Copyright John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 12-45

 Tracking Signal Plot
3 –
Tracking signal (MAD)

2 –
Exponential smoothing ( = 0.30)
1 –

0 –

-1 –

-2 – Linear trend line

-3 –
| | | | | | | | | | | | |
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Period

Copyright John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 12-46

 Statistical Control Charts

(Dt - Ft)2
= n-1

▪ Using  we can calculate statistical

control limits for the forecast error
▪ Control limits are typically set at  3

Copyright John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 12-47

 Statistical Control Charts

18.39 –
UCL = +3
12.24 –

6.12 –
Errors

0–

-6.12 –

-12.24 –
LCL = -3
-18.39 –

| | | | | | | | | | | | |
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Period

Copyright John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 12-48

 Regression Methods

 Linear regression
◼ a mathematical technique that relates a
dependent variable to an independent
variable in the form of a linear equation
 Correlation
◼ a measure of the strength of the relationship
between independent and dependent
variables

Copyright John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 12-49

 Linear Regression

y = a + bx a = y-bx
 xy - nxy
b =
 x2 - nx2
where
a = intercept
b = slope of the line
x
x = = mean of the x data
n
y
y = n = mean of the y data

Copyright John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 12-50

 Linear Regression Example
x y
(WINS) (ATTENDANCE) xy x2
4 36.3 145.2 16
6 40.1 240.6 36
6 41.2 247.2 36
8 53.0 424.0 64
6 44.0 264.0 36
7 45.6 319.2 49
5 39.0 195.0 25
7 47.5 332.5 49
49 346.7 2167.7 311

Copyright John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 12-51

 Linear Regression Example (cont.)
49
x= = 6.125
8
346.9
y= = 43.36
8

xy - nxy2
b=
x2 - nx2
(2,167.7) - (8)(6.125)(43.36)
= (311) - (8)(6.125)2
= 4.06

a = y - bx
= 43.36 - (4.06)(6.125)
= 18.46

Copyright John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 12-52

 Linear Regression Example (cont.)
Regression equation Attendance forecast for 7 wins
y = 18.46 + 4.06x y = 18.46 + 4.06(7)
60,000 – = 46.88, or 46,880

50,000 –

40,000 –
Attendance, y

30,000 –

Linear regression line,

20,000 – y = 18.46 + 4.06x

10,000 –

| | | | | | | | | | |
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Wins, x
Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 12-53
 Correlation and Coefficient of
Determination
▪ Correlation, r
▪ Measure of strength of relationship
▪ Varies between -1.00 and +1.00
▪ Coefficient of determination, r2
▪ Percentage of variation in dependent
variable resulting from changes in the
independent variable

Copyright John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 12-54

 Computing Correlation
n xy -  x y
r=
[n x2 - ( x)2] [n y2 - ( y)2]

(8)(2,167.7) - (49)(346.9)
r=
[(8)(311) - (49)2] [(8)(15,224.7) - (346.9)2]

r = 0.947

Coefficient of determination
r2 = (0.947)2 = 0.897
Copyright John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 12-55
 Multiple Regression
Study the relationship of demand to two or
more independent variables

y =  0 +  1x1 +  2x2 … +  kxk

where
 0 = the intercept
 1, … ,  k = parameters for the
independent variables
x1, … , xk = independent variables

Copyright John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 12-56