RE ite casita A ETT AJay kuomay Gory Engg. ln, cob RY Subject - Methemates - I CkAS- Yor) LASS Motes GBS Holes POPUL EY (Sabshcat Ten To thin Unit You Aludy ccbowk Protrekility One Probechitiiy dlishib uation Pactions . ‘ 46. V Q Ouyse- & Tech Sem -T S€5Si0n - 20)G-2, | G20 : é ‘ tefeakad Und Ha Aame Concibons & fet it Fesult in angNowe of tue Aeveral Possible Culrones, ne & taled thal © He fossib uktomey Ate _events_ alan h geting a head 44 Tossing af a “in treat & getting oy tal is an eut (b) Exhaustive Cares > The lotat Possible outcomes mn any treat 6 exhawlve eummts: ego Tn tossing of & Con, Huw ave b Cxhusiue Cares head ox bail: (¢) Favourable euents 2 It os te blak numbey Op = Possible eutcomes in which bu Afecitied eua,t b Oceucs - ae * ia C54 - x L £47? Ty tossing of two Coins , tue number of Favowsuble Cases in lessing Of 1 inks (aint ave Ot bo Gek Ableast bue head Gre TCH), (4,7), can)] te 3. XClumve euents.5, Chents Aye Caltiok if, Ma haffening of SY One PPening Y aU bers + _ heed & teal ave ing Argzl frear oy bar: e) mutually mutually exclu Buy Ouk bee 45 In bossing Of Coin mutually Oxy . tnal eithey head Will (@) Eta lly likely euents S ruants Ave Callecl Poway Mkely if, every cult ue Aas CHL 4 n t ify to appear in& any fra F Probability te oF a ttin , bor Aeael & Hi) fa et) uy ina ® 9 nad “hee Chrral hob. /o ceppeay 1” 4 le P(H)= +) C(De =: (H) Inde Pengo ancl dufendent deals ews ave Scuct lo be indefenclent It haf ‘ 0 by Non hafpe ning of one cloes pe dferd - Qlect fhe hofpening by Non- Ypening g Of ewnt , other Wise de fenaleat Events 32) (4) Random exfevimert 4 Ex fetiments which a vePealtd a Numbey of times, Under tx Conditions 4 whore results Cannot be. Preclic lO aye Called Yorelom ox fevinunt - out ball som Gn yn (box) (hy SamPle Sfaee a Me Aek of atl fossible a is CUA tee Aonufle Sfale nel cLenogy aS Cg 4 Tf a Coin\ts tossed, Han te tuoo fossible out Comes ave hed & Tale AGH, TH Al) Condiiorar —Picbabi lity the Prob obi tbs of happening of an event NE, when Another evn €: Ww known fo have\ elreadly hapfenecl t Ae Proh- clinokd 64 P(E, is Calls Conditioner Ir('y > Buk Tf boo €utnts ELE, a Cxclayine. ie Cunt €) prdtferlere GY eutnt Ex, Han °(&,) - PCa), Note These ave Me bay'ce Aafinthons Piob« You Can cuao vekyY Your ih m book fox ture alfinihions -QO Axiom $ with ath euent © & veal numbes belitun i Called Probability of Ox anetindzg teak € dlenokel by PLE). * Ox CES) 2) The Aum \ of Probabilittes = | _ Favorable no Of Cene, >) foymula fay Exhablive No: Of Caper aa re Ay 4 e Odds in & odds agai Theorems on Probability oO Addibon Theovem of Probab Te A and B ate ang Ewo evenk , P(aue) = P(A)+ P(a)- PANE mw P(A of B= P(A) FPR) ~ PAA Foy PLA4 BR = PnP —PlAR) Nol TH A & B Oe two mutually AisJoi eunk , fin ANw= 9, fran P(aup) = fla) t PCB) of (A+B) = Plalt PLB).| | é | REZ LAS LY SRM TPT PRS Note 29 1f A,B,C ase omy Hrve — eutnk Han PLAY Buc) = p(n) + Pla) 4P CO ~ CANA) -P (AC) — PCeAA) + PAD RAC) FAAS An Ate 1 rmablly mubually tents, toy (A, UBL - An)= P(A\)+ PAs Peas) » Yace, be odds in favour A,B, ¢,D ete 1:3, 14 Shs, O deal heat i impossible of Ham wins Ke race. Probabilitity of exP> Tn a of fouy horse 1.6. Assumin dind He Chance that 0 Bot: uk PR Pe Py be wining of horses A,B,C D. - Ginle & decd hent heak means Mot ao the four distance inAane fime ie au aloes nok win tae yace), So Me mukually exclumve- @ ddasin fevouy of A Ye 113 p not fo ssible (olaca, yses Covey Aqua four horses nls ave. non Hn Rae iy. oT Pye Woy ro" C we Ie je kuin ues Dave 6 ie Tt odd im favouy of cm : SUuent E Ar YEN, Huy P(e) cve | e. m+n 0 TT AT AS am AREP (on of Hem wih He yace) _ P(A oF Boy Cord) = P(a)41P(B)+¥ Ce) + POD) 4 = finally (a geeneds MBG Ei =tp+ wigs = GP ¥Clwriue) f - 42° Q muRicatue Las Of Robability > KB ave Indlefencleng @ tents (Maly exdlune euengs) Conc met Prob- eur A hay Where P(B/m) VePresents M OF Cdurtence F B when are aay hovpPenod + extoF————————* T Exf ito An vin Contains fo while Anal 3 back 31> bulb, while cmothey Un Contains 3 while and 5 black bell. Two bell are rraum om Ha fist Um awal fuk into te Record mn om fhm o ball u otvawn Hom He Aakter is Pee Probebility frm TE iS & while ball? Bet: balls ore oliawn dtom low | | sw fk UD may be. |25 | [=a Ci) Both hide X(N) One WahiLe Omal one black TO ne Pip)= 104% Ba KP). 2 = Bor When two babu aye fansfoxed dom fis Urn bo fue Aeconel urn, the Aecond v wil] Contay Gy Stwhik AS black — (0) YWhIY & black (Inyo while & 4 black - belh- dt Ww olenoles pe euent of A-sawoing a dom Acton um Mm Hyer Cones UM) LO Noo e(%A)=t Bape Flib)= Ohl atid = ct LM) ea 2 By yaa Plication Rule Poin 1 Awe P= P(@ah) =: PLA PCA) otoros a bau) = P( Baw) PB) x P(%) “IOs wets) = PCcAw)= PCED ¥ FM) > a 1b 75 Reh Prot = P(Aa)-p/ = Si, “Ro Baye's Theovem + TH €,, 0-6 mutually Clive events wilh P(E) 40 (é=1,2 n) A Yanolom expe Hen for dng ARIMA] euane A Of Me Ame howe : eA ) Ep) = PE) SEU) | iF PE) P(e) m te book JP (zB). Ply) 4 id. rly) ff De He Pf Ae ThYee VINs ConkdBin 6 4ed, U black ; Uved Pe ack anol syed, 5 Blk belly . One of Heer Vryng w AeleckA at 4% areola ball drawn dom it: Of fhe bel oven is ted, din He Probability trae it Form tee divst vm: Dolo hk €o vin | bs Choosen mek &s uin 2 is Choosen (eB n &,: ume ZA ts aus ved. Now Aime Hae Sane Prob: of Choong Fel ball diom UN 1, 2083 PlE)= PLE) = PLE: vYn-1 Un-2® (Me) = 0 (Aned ball & cliawn from vm) & b. !o F(%,) - Pla ted ball 4 daw dom yra 2) > Stake Bay's Hreorem. Te Prabi ity thae mia Civilian Can hit 0 barge is He Probab ite Mat An org office hik te emma targed ls 3 while he Livilian Can Ave 4 shoul Shon in He Hi tae ming officey hve 10 sho » Tf beg Hire bogeter , hen Whak iy the Probesbility hak He ov offi Cex hook tee targeg .@ : FAW) delined Bayes Hh de € Civilian bjt Me lates Ex" Aang officer hit oe faye 5 No dey Shot Ye yA 2 443 2 z 1B + 2g Ravlom Vor bles (Rev) The buklone % A Yandom exfevinag ty Caled Rarnolom —Yarviable. Remolom VAviahles 4 ye. denokd by YY ze eu “ave two b4fes of Rarclom Varviable, Ci) Discrete Remelom Varicbles A Alsereke Recnolom | Variables (Rv) Eve one Whch ave Countable ej Vine Ne: Y heaeds in 2 bss af @ Coin Ww olisete RV. ay ik taken Combable vate Na.(i) (1) lontinuows Rarolom Variables’ A Cortinums Kancom Variable Bons whic Ovrom ey Amy Yaluce within an Inlewad c v po weights Of O frupP of ineluiduals. Probes iby faction Noe hese ave two Ptobobility faction, I” Your SyUadsiae (1) Prob. mass fac. — fon cincvele Ry. (Gt) Prob lensity dmc. foe Continuow RY WW) PYobm bi} mass faction (Pm4) dit X be He olistrele Rv AE. fi xX: x, kK. %y Prob. >P° P, Pa : Py te PO). & A dmchon fx) ox Pla) glefinel bY Plex) ~ Px) = [2 or fi where Hore i “| oO » ofes wise. b Calticl Prof of dliscvele Ry x., Etats alll Sia: the bf Aakicdien Mus fellow fife ve, i Pla) Zo liv Sf lu)=y fil A tardom Vvemebie % bake, yale 1, wih Fiok nasy dochun a? Si 1 UFI,2,3.. Fivgl Hes valuy a 4. ‘ . As Ainte Ap bb tf, po mud Batches br tortion, of Prt: er PP LE Gs . 2 ; fA = ~ A, 4A, 247 7! 9 t+ Ott I T-4 7 A g [it ara, )rtz) 9 e-l= = , + — 9 e422 3)dr- 42% | Probability” dis tibukien AA discreke Foraker Vanohbie 2 Dea: Probabiliy diinbubioa: Prob Aistn bubon oe by 4 : oa fable of & fimula Wistig ol Possible yybuns of a Renslom Vartiekle wih hey vesfechve Probtabi Wher +a “4 D> ke X denotes Me Numpo, of Prink APPeating iN a thiow of pile. hon Prob abinity chistaoution 4 ar.f 2,3 © gg ¢ CP EENAKMRELE Mean anol Vavianco OF Yernolomn Das bbes an nel avian Ya nolom Ve te x: Wy XW W- Xn Pal ty Pos h, |B be A discrete Probabil'ty phityrbuton i eye 2h. Fh C1) mem= “= Zh tp; K = hx. | G 2-1 fos) Aig setery. Ci) We knew Mat form Ynoments yk Variance = A, = V,- Vv, =V-K = ZAM 2 Se Vay (ery 4 disTw Beye plarting Mu qushion tant #2 on Give OQ brief —trtoducton Of Binormad ait | | Thay AisMbution ta Contoyned with trial of a YePetiting Nature, where the ‘Suces, ot an a olmoted yy PA Yale’ ty denofed OV AL Peay Ak N= ineliPonglnt fried in an OPP rinacag 4 x: ng. Of Sucess in Wha. YY eps A oie th tossed thrice . A Success P-32) is Delkin 1 ov 6) On & PSS + Finck te Probability Of He nunber af et: de yx plunolss numbey of Success. oli's hi bution, mean 2 Variance Suloe 55a . Bnce we Aye bssing ple 2% times X faky be Vel 9,1,2, 3 Prob. of Pucess (te Jetting loy 6 ina argu bss) ke b 3 4 Prob Y fell Y= Mood, heve n= 4 Ciro. 4 Himes bssing y ~ ale? a a$0 by Binomial olist + Ce P(X=0) =P (% sucess) = Be, 0%) b : F0x=)- “e or vay — AG) = 3 at PO) = f (one Aucess £ 2 fertlen) = 30 pgs (48) 2 3h rh ee pe ~ ee P(x=2) = P (two Suctese, 4 One | a oy-d = 3a ae Sar 7 #7 WE) > 933 1 k Pliz3) = PC all 3 Auccem) = 3, 0G = 7F The Probability disthbution i, 2p. kom, t&): Fi aie (MSE O + 6 ue | "Ge Ap "At 2Y, F "Ba ae i 4a Zs u Now mean= Bu fi aI YM. eg 2 Var, = £m PL -(mem) = 4S -1 = ZS.\ Sea ee baa “99> Ake mixod ee ra with lo Dood One. Finol Me Probabiy; dishbution Of Ma Number Of berel C995 In > pltawn at Tandom, Wwithouk Teplacomat — dtom thi. Lot» Arta Since ‘Wwitkoud YePlacemut ' Conalidi on (y Mertiond heve ie au du tay aw not of Yefthhwe Naluve, Ao We Sant* a P PIG Biro Ait here. Heye X sersemes. clens/ey: No. o4 a Paal back 299s. Food . #. : OX fakes Valus 0, 1, 2,3 an = = Nob 4. ole loc P(Xz0) = PLN bad €99. oben) = tan a tL 3gg FL i. BE Bir tor “BLA: t y W fix=1)2 P (bre baal & 2 good 297) ae Bek Mile ie eee t 1 TT tee ail ri 1 z q 4 3 = 1 |b y 3! LU *] I-10 sari I }QQ @ | P(x=2)- F (bon bad ¥9ys) = ow. tee, | Tae Pr V2. Pr=4) 0 (Thee bowl 994) =o (V No Y bad eggs a1e Ong two ) Ql 5 Find Me Probability aistibution of P-323 ty Number Of doublets in sour Phyoux % Of om Pai of cliee. fet due X clanole,, Me numbey of Aucess 5 Fine Wwe haw four throws of facuY clice bo X tks Vals 0,1,2, 3 Y, Priscpfs Here (Prob Y getting o cloubled) te Jetty § 0,0, 0,2), 3) C4y), (58) eg} | Whar hor olive are Prrown An muldarneourty Ham Mo GY euenk = 67236. P (Prob 4 Gebling « couse )= 43° 4 [fire Y fou) =) f= 9%,P(X 0)- P (vot Jeg any clowbiet ) U ore 4Y 626 to () (- 5) " ja94 Pozi) - PO de ting 1 Abs me - Me, Ble S)rt Prsay, Pl detiy r< —— te) EN Pixs) = ( (Bethy — te, (4) LS )' = ait Plx-y) < P( debirg 4 doubler) > ty = < Probobility clist: aENO EE Te @ ft A yardom variable xX hay he foto F329 Prob ability clic bibution « rn) "235465 674 POO: a 3a Sa da 94 4 Ba a leq, D Deky ming He Value oY a os Fiud P(X<3), P(XZ3) | Pl2rsx [= 4) Bue P(x t,( 20 Q) Combi nus olishibutinn > When Hee Value “f ths Rematom Venable Lies in a “sang 49 When we deal with bemp, hergud thon Wwe Ping Mal Varviale Can Weaght eel, Inwal Ake ASush. take balun In a piven Buth vayial, (Rv) ave Callicl Cortinuour Rv FY Continuons Rarolom banables we A ae fotowieg Probabiritys fnchion dk ta Prob f variable % fall in the interval (xb, 14d) be expressed In He fom dh de, whee don) 6% Continuotes twtr The tuwe fF HD 16 Called Prob denvity fnchon (tof): oo Pla OE sx our du) = dele frossesses following Fsoferties The density fine Ww dH) % 6 , tor every XK. 2) £0) dual , —% For Probability Aish) bub oy, Hee Prob ability 6 Fun bg POP sxsq)- ( bods éEE OO Eo ——— ie ra?) SP TL fonchon Jed ts clined by JOO- CE” OS Sm, fino Ma Value of C whieh Changer Ti) lo a Piwh wility olengite d fi c finckon (24). Gots Tn ovdet to dts) may be a PAL We Should dH) So fy [ny (40 ot / Aime 6) y Dy ri : Alara foshue y 40 Conalifion (iy Ly Aabsped Conslition () will be Aatisdied if “o of [etoee1 5 -cetf®) ~ (342%) | Ssh aus te di). Oo x<2 P-332 i ° Prove hak it q dansity Junction Final tee Prob ability tok O variate hewing Prag olensity ivi fall in He inewad ASK s3- PO Hr) & Prob. fanchon , 4 ib Sabishies Hae Morsing hwo Conolitions G) fly 2,0 for ensuy Aine terre) & the for euny x Leneyoy %o M0 geydu =I ~ de Aelorol & Condition will be Aatisdial f (de) duet -% + [ioder ee (i an=| 3 Oo oa L 2 2 qa (ee | =I aq] caRCi<1 fa) oa dons Ey, fanchon ib 1 (342%) Ax Novo cine = ei Gr24) ie nome L 713 (549- Gry [fo+ls)- (é-) ey 3@ Madhemtlical eyPectakion OF exPecled value Of & ‘tandom Varieble - “Tha exfocled value “Ya dliccrele Yanolom | Varieble, UW fue averde of au fossible. Valu of be Yarolom variable. Me, He x, Ae, PL. Pp Wuheve Piha APn =, than he Mattemabical exfPeclation , lenokd by CO) = Pt Pout 2 thMn = 2 fixe, whew she} Simillavy Ih monn Hbouk Ongn Vy2 Zheng? = C4) k Vayiance As = Zu (eh = EGt)- Ee” xP 34 In four bosses of a coin, ML % be Lug number of heads, Caltulale Hua xPechedd veilus o ‘ Bold The Vanelom Verviable x dike He Velus 0,1,2,3,4 in four losses of & Cain P (Aucess) = P( Getting heogl ina) 1 Now (Aucess) =P (4 She eal L Aq (ffailus)= I-Le + zsy Now P(x-0) = Pipe tage = "ep O Qe *)! 5 a Plx:1) “pom Nead 4 3dailye) . Me, (3) = et Paras P(rheagd £ * fa) 4a Ql yn $6 3 be P (x= “3) = “e(4 TO LP (124) 2 4 (4) oye ‘The Probesbi lit Aistybubon OY X is xO ! 2 3 Y ft 4B EO) = Zx RO) =o rif & +2 4p at & at eosTh icad Probability ist buk = seoribicad Pobabilify dlishibubson Tn theonticet Ptobwbility dlitibutions ib w Possible to Finak Mmethemab ely Wwhot iy He foe uerey, chistnbukiun 4 Cuitain Observation b, TINE HOPE Of theopieak theovitical {104 obicy © Binomiak Probability cist. > “Thig ohiStrbution te Concermeg wilh tial of yepehlive nature IM which omy occurence oF non- ocLurence , Suction 5¥ fail w of interest Wwe Call olcuvence of an tun g “Cucten,’ L iH Non-otluvenle Wy Qa Parlux’ db n= macPenolent tielr in an exforinent P 2 Prob. of Success q2 Prob. of Jatdere Bb. Peqe) Ye Mo. ay favoureble Cares toon Plx2Y¥) = Ney PG”) where t= 0,12... Thy W Called binomick Pick. clisthbution Note M Plxzy) se Usually written Pay BThe fuccessive Probabilities Pir) for ¥- 0,12 Ore 4” Ne, pg?! ne PG” Meyp” One tu puclevnne terms of binomial 2% Panyray Z( e+ 4)")(D Recturence — fosrmuta ‘for binomial olishivut, - Pir) ) Mean aad | Vaviance of Binomiel alist Prove bok Mean of Binomial eo BE A un is nP + veyiance 4 nt Proof > for Binomial distr bubon , Wwe Know Hae P= Ney pg" = Zyl) ob. disk - n ee So mean By Ny PY = Exley ¥=0 n soak ths ame gy FM Mee 2 nefar4 2 meni) py |) a ant (Mg at eros: bai 2 ne(peay anh C- f+9-1) So (aan) | ees np Smiley frou tak Variahee of Binomied est =nf9.ee GP Y Fit a binomiak gitinbubn fo bee —_ follow He queneg dasa KIO ' 2 3 4 f 30 62 46 lo 2 Ad We know bod Moan of Binomicd = nf & D) fivd Me meen Of tap Grn hejuenty pads na f fi 0 39 6 1 62 ér 2 4% 42 lo 50 Gon fF sf, He 'te EH) 14a mean = “Sp 75 7% (nh) heve ne By 9% "20,12 NO faces: b Not Included jin Hee huraber of L tiede) Now mon =n 5 p 2% - 3 12g 4P =) Fe mG =o F% 4 = IH Pe J-03u=0 6% Hence ber Binomd dish nukv = (pe4)" = 130(9 32 40.42) * Tf N- fH Ww fun Bin Me Wuton 7 hon we muh Ply Has froma by MQn 4-4 In Goo families wih 5 Children 7363 each, how mang Jamilie,s Wwoud be. CyfertA bo have (i) 3 boys omol 2 girls (i) 2 bog anol gris nd no B Bir! (VJ odmost foo Syrls. (Assume Probabilies for boys ond rls bo be 24ual) . bet Sinte Piobabiles fy boys mol Firls ave eqar. Pe Probewbi ti Hy of faveg a bog = 4 a ” roe Bae N25, Ne Soo @) Te exhecled numbey of fammiliv, having 9 boys for Jprls n-y = Goo x Ne, p” PE = G0x §, G wy | = Yoo x oe 7 (az) = 250 Ui) ExPeclech number of families bminf no Pryls- Yon 7 = NX ney £79" Goon Se¢ (4 Sas Sop Silly folu tox (D&O) Park- Afbsson clribibndsor > ys . e ‘ rye “ Poisson alistnbution ey a Lemiling Care. Hy ido ect Misti butisyy . / Ay for Poisson diet » We MUssume | thoy n— Qo) fo 0 At: ne - file = A ye: My, Mow foi Binom lal lst Pox 9)= Ne, Pi ae 1 = nOvi), Onk-)) n n ofl 4 DO y : —— 4) N= al = nlrei) mvt) a He wy aba ee = — . =i fe fn) re ‘Ay’ oe Fa easy fal nt: 3B an ia FA -ts)> fepr a oy nae each he ja — Oo ey bevels eT ais | (Sorwa n ole (tal)-o) (nts ak ”) 2) - Hence in lim} bing Cena 0h) Ye, ~{ ee (1-0n,2-) tt ent RH hePreouk a Ron ability, lish WM hts aU ok Po ss any a@ O Poisson olishh bution > Limiting Cane Of biromiat olishibution- if niu vey dare & Pu Veg bmall , Hur Use of binomial plist u Very Aaboyious- Then we Use fo'sson glist: te nb, Pao Ad nhs Fuike. dr ne d (favaucter) Poisson olit - emrenetnnttgapamenieant eaten —r te POs) = e7Ay (120 br. y! > Wha de nf Asticle @ Receuvence formula fos Poisson list Py. @a¥ / Han © mean awe Variance oy forisson alist -2 (P3 Lote Me Proofs ¥ fiom book | Mean & variance of Bim foisson clut-@ QloGi) Dake war Colleckel over & feviodl % Io dears, Showing, Nurnbey Of oleaths fiom horse Kicks in each of Me 200 ary Covps. The distloution of le aths was as poulows : Nor Of de ais) 6 7], a 1 8 G Tote Fre 4. Od eng CHEESE Loo Fit a Poisson dlishibution to Me plata Gmol Cofeulale He theovelical degen cies. Bt: Mean of grwon dlishbubon,, = fx ef = PFO 4bSK pany, 43x34 4K] raat apa = SSt4ytq4y nye pe epee ered riae st06y moan= \= 0.61 "Red. Poisson dlishibulion = N- PQ) ie eA yy Pai Y FN. ETN ~ ro0y C06) Y/ —— Y1 arp = ly .67 0-6)” Y_ | Nett toe- 67 49" | roar tas freg( fool \ ae OS lee (poe (one me | 66.2% 66 ; 20.2} Lo | 2 4h 4 | y O62 |=o 6 iss Te p-37F marten Mok 27 of euchic buths Veomg, oi eA ba a ComsPany Cove olyfective ~y poisson ishibubion finot 14 Probability Hat a AamPle of r5p buths will Contain SO Mo dlifechve bubh Gy hoo clyechive buths Un) Ob ba mmosk bayer olifectine huths Bote Neve Pl olifective bulb) = pt Oor Hay 4 ( Prev. of a = 0:02 = 0.0% Non-glif. bah Pay anley AaNP | whee n=200 ~" [A= oo X¥o.0r = Y. . . very Small Op Foisson dist. (- nis verg Aavge ‘ 0 u) ow (lo P (no clideck we Be eee) — eAat eo ty Som) (i) P (2 clifectve buths) =P (722) -4 L _ = 2@ (4%) =i Sap 40-144.) %) P Cakmost tnver Anfecthue butbs) = Plo) +P) 4G) +P C3) str! Eta) ety? 37G4) dighibubow 1b Co Conbnuow Aishbublor,, | | 6) Normal olith bution 3 Nowmat The Geneval etm: Y Normal ast? bs =I 2. dé). (KY) z an € d whet % bps tra value from 2 os. HS-M kh lhe by -4K ie - 2 ys-Ma-O5 - Aowwng tum, we des bye bbw (#210, tac ed 7 s eT