PART 3 MODULE 5

INDEPENDENT EVENTS, THE MULTIPLICATION RULES

EXAMPLE 3.5.1
Suppose we have one six-sided die, and a spinner such as is used in a child's game. When
we spin the spinner, there are four equally likely outcomes: "A," "B," "C," and "D."

1. An experiment consists of rolling the die and then spinning the spinner. How many
different outcomes are possible?

2. What is the probability that the outcome will be "3-C?"

SOLUTIONS

1. There are six equally likely outcomes when we roll the die. There are four equally
likely outcomes when we roll the die. According to the Fundamental Counting Principle,
if we spin the spinner and roll the die the number of outcomes is
(6)(4) = 24

2. There are 24 equally likely outcomes to the two-part experiment. Exactly one of them
is the outcome “3-C.” Thus, the probability that the experiment result will be “3-C” is
1/24.

Suppose we think of the experiment in EXAMPLE 3.5.1 as involving two separate,

independent processes, rather than a single two-part process.

Note that when we roll the die, the probability that we will get a “3” is 1/6.

Note also that when we spin the spinner, the probability that we will get a “C” is 1/4.

1 1 1
Finally, note that " =
6 4 24

!
 That is, the probability that we receive both a “3” on the die and a “C” on the spinner is
the same as the probability of getting a “3” on the die multiplied by the probability of
getting a “C” on the spinner.

This illustrates an important property of probability:

THE MULTIPLICATION RULE FOR INDEPENDENT EVENTS

If E and F are independent events, then
P(E and F) = P(E) " P(F)

EXAMPLE 3.5.2
! Recall this (authentic) data from the Natural Resources Defense Council:
40% of bottled water samples are merely tap water.
30% of bottled water samples are contaminated by such pollutants as arsenic and fecal
bacteria. If two samples are independently selected, what is the probability that both
samples are contaminated by pollutants?

EXAMPLE 3.5.2 SOLUTION

Let E be the event that the first sample is contaminated. Then P(E) = .3.
Let E be the event that the second sample is contaminated. Then P(F) = .3.

We are asked to find P(E and F).

P(E and F) = P(E) " P(F) = .3 " .3 = .09

!
 EXAMPLE 3.5.3
Suppose that survey of hawks reveals that 40% of them agree with the statement
"Poodles are tasty." If two hawks are independently selected, what is the probability that
neither of them agree that "Poodles are tasty?"
A. .8 B. .6 C. .36 D. .64

INDEPENDENT EVENTS, DEPENDENT EVENTS

Two events A and B are said to be independent if they do not influence one another.
More formally, this means that the occurrence of one event has no effect upon the
probability of the other event.

EXAMPLE 3.5.5
At the entrance to a casino, there are two slot machines. Machine A is programmed so
that in the long run it will produce a winner in 10% of the plays. Machine B is
programmed so that in the long run it will produce a winner in 15% of the plays.
1. If we play each machine once, what is the probability that we will win on both plays?
2. If we play each machine once, what is the probability that we will lose on both plays?
3. If we play each machine once, what is the probability that we will win on at least one
play?

EXAMPLE 3.5.5 SOLUTION

1. Let A be the event that we win when we play Machine A. Then P(A) = .10.
Let B be the event that we win when we play Machine B. Then P(B) = .15.
We are trying to find P(A and B).
P(A and B) = P(A) " P(B) = .1" .15 = .015

2. In this case we are trying to find P(A" and B" ) .

Since P(A) = .1, P(A" ) = .9 (The complements rule).
! Likewise, since P(B) = .15, P(B" ) = .85
Thus, P(A" and B" ) = P(A" ) # P(B" ) = .9 # .85 = .765
!
! case we are trying to find P(A or B). We cannot solve this directly by using the
3. In this
multiplication rule!for independent events, but there are two different ways to get the
! correct answer indirectly.

First, recall from logic that the condition “A or B” is the opposite (in logic we called it
“negation,” in probability we call it “complement”) of the condition “not A and not B.”
That means that we can use the answer to problem #2 above to get the answer to this
problem. According to the complements rule,

P(A or B) = 1- P(A" and B" ) = 1- .765 = .235

!
Alternatively, we could and use this formula from UNIT 3 MODULE 5:

P(E or F) = P(E) + P(F) – P(E and F). This will allow us use the answer from Problem #1
above.

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B) = .10 + .15 – .015 = .235

Notice again that we have solved Problem #3 twice, using two different approaches, each
of which shows that the answer is .235.

EXAMPLE 3.5.6
According to a study in 1992 by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, 80% of
commercially grown celery samples and 45% of commercially grown lettuce samples
contain traces of agricultural poisons (insecticides, herbicides, fungicides).
If Homer eats one serving (one sample) of celery and one serving of lettuce:
1. What is the probability that both the celery and the lettuce contain traces of agricultural
poisons?
2. What is the probability that neither serving contains traces of agricultural poisons?
3. What is the probability that at least one of the servings contains traces of agricultural
poisons?
EXAMPLE 3.5.7
Real data (as of 1999):
Each day, 7% of the US population eat a meal at McDonald's.
If two people are randomly and independently selected, what is the probability that...
1. ...both people will eat a meal at McDonald's today?
2. ...neither person will eat a meal at McDonald's today?
3. ...at least one of them will eat a meal at McDonald's today?
GENERAL NOTE
In any situation in which two or more individuals are chosen from a large population of
unspecified size, we will assume that the selections are independent events.

EXAMPLE 3.5.8
Suppose the table below shows the results of a survey of TV viewing habits:
Hours of viewing per week Percent of respondents
5 or fewer 4%
5.1 – 10 8%
10.1 – 15 10%
15.1 – 20 18%
20.1 – 25 22%
25.1 – 35 30%
More than 35 8%

Assume that Homer and Gomer are a couple of randomly selected, independent guys.
According to the data in the table above, what is the probability that:
1. Homer views TV for 5 or fewer hours per week, and Gomer views TV for 10.1 - 20
hours per week?
2. Homer views TV for 35 or fewer hours per week, and so does Gomer?
Still assuming that Homer and Gomer are a couple of randomly selected, independent
guys:
3. What is the probability that neither of them falls in the 15.1 - 20 hours per week
category?
4. What is the probability that at least one of them views TV for 15.1 - 20 hours per
week?
 EXAMPLE 3.5.9
A university awards scholarships on the basis of student performance on a certain
placement test. The table below indicates the distribution of scores on that test.

Score Scholarship Percentage

0-200 None 13%
201- None 23%
300
301- None 26%
400
401- Partial 12%
500
501- Partial 11%
600
601- Partial 9%
700
701- Full 6%
800

If Homer and Gomer are a couple of randomly selected, independent guys, what is the
probability that neither of them received a scholarship?

Recall the following scenario from Unit 3 Module 5:

EXAMPLE 3.4.1*

According to a recent article from the New England Journal of Medical Stuff ,
63% of cowboys suffer from saddle sores,
52% of cowboys suffer from bowed legs,
40% suffer from both saddle sores and bowed legs.

What is the probability that a randomly selected cowboy...

4. ...has saddle sores and bowed legs?

Let's answer this question again, using the Multiplication Rule for Independent events.

Let E be the event "the randomly selected cowboy has saddle sores." Then P(E) = .63.
Let F be the event "the randomly selected cowboy has bowed legs." Then P(F) = .52.
According to the multiplication rule,

P(E and F) = P(E) " P(F) = .63 " .52 = .3276

!
This seems very nice, until we notice that the data provided in the problem states directly
that P(E and F) = .40.

The question now becomes: What's wrong here?

Why does the Multiplication Rule not give the correct answer?
Does this mean that the Multiplication Rule is not reliable? Is this evidence of a rip in the
very fabric of space/time, perhaps signaling the impending destruction of the universe as
we know it?
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
On the Impossibility of Tuesday
A dialogue

Gomer: Do you know what day it is?

Homer: It's Tuesday.
Gomer: Are you sure?
Homer: Sure I'm sure.
Gomer: Really? But it can't be Tuesday, can it?
Homer: Of course it's Tuesday. Yesterday was Monday, today is Tuesday.
Gomer: But that's exactly the problem.
Homer: What problem?
Gomer: The problem of Tuesday. It can't be Tuesday.
Homer: Whatever.
Gomer: Look, there are seven days in a week, right?
Homer: Last time I checked.
Gomer: So if I just woke up from a coma--
Homer: --that would be a nice change--
Gomer: --if I just woke up from a coma, and didn't know what day it was, the probablity that today is
Tuesday would be one seventh, right?
Homer: Right; one out of seven.
Gomer: But in order for today to be Tuesday, yesterday must have been Monday.
Homer: It follows.
Gomer: Actually, it precedes. But the probability that yesterday was Monday is also one seventh, so the
probability that yesterday was Monday AND today is Tuesday is only one seventh of one seventh...
Homer: ...The multiplication rule.
Gomer: Right, so that's only one out of 49. And it gets worse. In order for yesterday to have been Monday,
the day before yesterday would have had to have been Sunday...
Homer: ...so the probability that the day before yesterday was Sunday, AND yesterday was Monday, AND
today is Tuesday...
Gomer: ...is one seventh of one seventh of one seventh...
Homer: ...which is only, let's see, (mumbles, makes calculations in the air with finger, carries the one, et c)
one out of 343, I guess. Dang. Maybe today isn't Tuesday, after all.
Gomer: Now, I'm especially worried, because it occured to me that in order for the day before yesterday to
have been Sunday, the day before that would have had to have been Saturday, so (let's work backward
here) the probability that today is Tuesday AND yesterday was Monday AND the day before yesterday was
Sunday AND the day before that was Saturday...
Homer: ...is one seventh of one seventh of one seventh of one seventh, which is ...
Gomer: ...one out of 2401.
Homer: Hey, you're pretty quick with that.
Gomer: Well, I've been researching the matter. In fact, I found out that if you take this back as far as a week
and a half, it's obvious that the probability that today is Tuesday is only about one in 282 million.
Homer: A virtual impossibility!
Gomer: So, I wonder what day it is.
Homer: Me too, now that you've explained the situation to me.
Gomer: One thing's for sure.
Homer: You've got that right. One thing's for sure: today isn't Tuesday.
Gomer: Exactly.
Homer: It's a virtual impossibility.
Gomer: There is a bright side, though.
Homer: And that is?
Gomer: Well, I was supposed to have a math test on Tuesday, but I haven't been studying.
Homer: Clearly, you've had more important fish to fry.
Gomer: Well put; I've been wrestling with this "impossibility of Tuesday" issue for quite a while. At least
one thing is virtually certain: my math test can't be today.
 Homer: It's virtually impossible.
Gomer: That's a relief.
Homer: Every cloud has its silver lining. I have get going, though. I have term paper due tomorrow.
Gomer: Wednesday?
Homer: Yeah. Wednesday morning, eight o'clock sharp.
Gomer: But it's virtually impossible that tomorrow will be Wednesday...

We will discuss the "impossibility of Tuesday" after we've introduced some preliminary
facts.

EXAMPLE 3.5.10
An IRS auditor has a list of 12 taxpayers whose tax returns are questionable. The
inspector will choose 2 of these people to be audited. Eight of the taxpayers are
Floridians and 4 are Georgians. What is the probability that both people selected will be
Floridians?

EXAMPLE 3.5.10 SOLUTION

Let E be the event that the first person selected is a Floridian, and let F be the event that
the second person is also a Floridian. Note that the probability of F is affected by
whether or not E occurs.

When we select the first person, the probability that he/she is Floridian is 8/12, because
eight of the twelve people are Floridians.
P(E) = 8/12

Assuming that the first person selected was a Floridian, there will be eleven people left in
the pool, seven of whom are Floridians. Thus, the probability that the second person is a
Floridian, given that the first person was a Floridian, is 7/11.

P(F|E) = 7/11

We are trying to find the probability of both events occurring, so we should multiply:
8 7 56
P(E and F) = P(E) " P(F, given E) = " = # .424
12 11 132

!
The previous example suggests the following fact:

THE MULTIPLICATION RULE FOR DEPENDENT EVENTS.

 If E and F are dependent events, then
P(E and F) = P(E) " P(F, given E)

This rule is especially useful when we have a two-step experiment where the outcome of
! the first step affects the possible outcomes for the second step, such as the previous
example.

INDEPENDENT vs. DEPENDENT EVENTS

In a case where two or more items are selected from a large population of unspecified
size, we will assume that the selections are INDEPENDENT. In a case where two or
more items are selected from a small population of specified size, we will assume that the
selections are DEPENDENT.

EXAMPLE 3.5.11
In his pocket, Gomer has 3 red, 5 orange and 2 blue M&Ms.
If he randomly chooses two M&Ms, what is the probability that both will be red?
A. .6 B. .09 C. .067 D. .52

EXAMPLE 3.5.12
The Skuzuzi Kamikaze sport/utility vehicle is manufactured at two plants, one in Japan
and one in the US. Sixty percent of the vehicles are made in the US, while the others are
made in Japan. Of those made in the US, 5% will be recalled due to a manufacturing
defect. Of those made in Japan, 3% will be recalled.
Find the probability that a vehicle will be...
1. ...made in the US and not recalled.
2. ...made in Japan and recalled.
 EXAMPLE 3.5.13
The state insurance commission revealed the following information about the Preferential
Insurance Company's homeowners' insurance: 10% of the policy-holders have filed more
than 5 claims over the past two years; 60% of these people have had their insurance
canceled; 90% of the policy-holders have filed 5 or fewer claims over the past two years;
15% of these people have had their insurance canceled.

What is the probability that a policy holder filed more than 5 claims over the past 2 years
and had his/her insurance canceled?

Once again, let's turn our attention to this scenario from Unit 3 Module 5:

EXAMPLE 3.4.1**

According to a recent article from the New England Journal of Medical Stuff ,
63% of cowboys suffer from saddle sores,
52% of cowboys suffer from bowed legs,
40% suffer from both saddle sores and bowed legs.

What is the probability that a randomly selected cowboy has saddle sores and bowed
legs?
We know that the answer is .40, because that information is stated directly in the
problem. Earlier we saw, however, that if we try to derive this answer by using the
Multiplication Rule for Independent Events, we fail because (.63)(.52) is NOT equal to
.40.

Let's try again, using the correct version of the Multiplication Rule.

P(S.S. and B.L.) = P(S.S.) " P(B.L., given S.S.)

40
= .63 " = .40
63
We see that the multiplication rule yields the correct answer when we take into account
the dependence of the two events.
!
EXAMPLE 3.5.14
A local sports talk radio station offers the following contest: each Thursday during the
football season, listeners are invited to call the station and make four predictions "against
the spread." The caller may choose any four college or professional games he/she desires,
as long as they are games for which the odds makers have issued a betting line.
Any caller who turns out to be correct on all four predictions will win a $10 bar tab from
a local sports bar. If we assume that each week 25 callers will get on the air with their
predictions, what will be the expected weekly cost in bar tabs to the bar that sponsors the
program? (In order to answer this question, we need to make a reasonable assumption
about the significance of "beating the point spread.")
EXAMPLE 3.5.15
THE WORLD FAMOUS CAR AND GOATS PROBLEM
You are a contestant on the extinct TV game show Let's Make a Deal.
On the stage, there are three large doors. Behind one door is a new car; behind the other
two doors are goats. You are asked to pick one of the doors. You win whatever prize is
behind the door that you pick.
You choose a door. Before he reveals your prize, the host opens one of the doors that you
didn't pick, and shows you that there was a goat behind that door.
There are still two unopened doors. You have chosen one of them. You now know for
sure that behind one of the two doors is a car, and behind the other door is a goat. The
host asks you if you want to change your choice of doors.
Is there any mathematical reason why you should switch?

To decide whether or not it is advantegeous to switch, answer the following questions:

What is the probability that you will win a car by switching?
What is the probability that you won't win a car by switching?
These two questions are easy to answer, if you think carefully about the underlying
conditions:
How could you win (a car) by switching?
How could you lose by switching?

WORLD WIDE WEB NOTE

For probability practice problems visit the companion website and try THE INFINITE
IMPROBABILITY DRIVER.
PRACTICE EXERCISES
Table A below shows the distribution of undergraduate students at Normal University
according to the number of credit hours for which they are registered this semester.
Table B below shows the distribution of students at Normal University according to
cumulative G.P.A.

TABLE A TABLE B
# of credit hours % of students cumulative G.P.A. % of students
11 or fewer 12% 0.00 - 0.80 14%
12 31% 0.81 - 1.60 16%
13 6% 1.61 - 2.40 38%
14 8% 2.41 - 3.20 17%
15 21% 3.21 - 4.00 15%
16 9%
17 2%
18 or more 11%

1 - 8: Refer to the appropriate table to determine the probability that a randomly selected
student:
1. has a G.P.A. less than 0.81, given that the G.P.A is less than 2.41.
A. .259 B. .14 C. .095 D. .206

2. is enrolled for 17 credit hours, given that he/she is enrolled for more than 15
credit hours.
A. .0909 B. .0952 C. .9090 D. .2222

3. has a G.P.A. greater than 3.20, given that the G.P.A is greater than 2.40.
A. .882 B. .048 C. .469 D. .144

4. is enrolled for 12 credit hours, given that he/she is enrolled for 12 or 13 hours.
A. .25 B. .8378 C. .1147 D. .3407

5. …is enrolled for 12 credit hours and has a G.P.A. in the 1.61 - 2.40 range
(assume that # credit hours enrolled and cumulative G.P.A are INDEPENDENT of
one another).
A. .69 B. .1178 C. .8158 D. .1209

6. …is enrolled for 18 or more credit hours and has a G.P.A. greater than 3.20.
A. .7333 B. .26 C. .0165 D. .24

7. …is enrolled for 11 or fewer credit hours or has a G.P.A. in the 2.41 - 3.20 range.
A. .2696 B. .29 C. .0204 D. .7059

8. …is enrolled for 16 credit hours or has a G.P.A less than 1.61.
A. .363 B. .027 C. .39 D. .3448
Exercises 9 - 11 refer to this situation: Homer has a '68 VW Bus and an '85 Yugo. On
25% of the days of the year, Homer finds that the VW will not start. On 30% of the days
of the year, the Yugo will not start. Whether or not a particular vehicle starts seems to be
random and independent of the other vehicle. On a given day, what is the probability…

9. …that the VW starts and the Yugo doesn't start?

A. .45 B. .225 C. .55 D. .075

10. …that both vehicles start?

A. .525 B. .55 C. .075 D. 1.35

11. …that at least one of the vehicles doesn't start?

A. .075 B. .895 C. .55 D. .475

12 - 13: Statistics for a certain carnival game reveal that the contestants win a large
teddy bear 1% of the time, win a small teddy bear 4% of the time, win a feather attached
to an alligator clip 35% of the time, and lose the rest of the time. What is the probability
that a randomly selected player…

12. …wins a large teddy bear, given that he/she wins something?
A. .0085 B. .2857 C. .029 D. .025

13. …wins a small teddy bear, given that/he she wins a teddy bear?
A. .8 B. .2 C. .3 D. .03

14. Referring to the carnival game in the previous example: If Bernie and Ernie each
play once, what is the probability that Bernie loses and Ernie wins a feather, assuming
that Ernie and Bernie are a couple of randomly selected, independent guys?
A. .95 B. .5833 C. .21 D. .15

15. Like #14: what is the probability that at least one of them wins something?
A. .8 B . .16 C. .64 D. .96

16. True fact from medical history: If a human is bitten by a dog showing symptoms of
rabies, and the human does not seek medical treatment, the probability that the human
will develop symptoms of rabies (a disease that is nearly always fatal) is about 1/6.

If two people are bitten by dogs that show symptoms of rabies, what is the probability
that neither person will develop symptoms of rabies?
A. 2/6 B. 10/6 C. 1/36 D. 10/36 E. 25/36
17. There are 8 Republicans and 6 Democrats on a congressional committee. The
Gomermatic Corporation is going to randomly select two committee members to be
recipients of $100,000 campaign contributions. Find the probability that both selectees
will be Democrats.
A. .165 B. .813 C. .857 D. .536

18. The table below shows the distribution according to salary of the employees of a large
corporation.

annual salary % of employees

$0 - 9,999 4%
10,000 - 29,999 38%
30,000 - 59,999 32%
60,000 - 99,999 17%
100,000 or more 9%

If Homerina and Gomerina are a couple of randomly selected, independent persons, what
is the probability that at least one of them has salary less than $30,000?
A. .9324 B. .76 C. .6636 D. .84

19. In a basket, there are 10 ripe peaches, 8 unripe peaches, 12 ripe apples, and 4 unripe
apples. If two fruit are chosen, what is the probability that neither are peaches?
A. .2727 B. .2215 C. .2803 D. .2139
ANSWERS TO LINKED EXAMPLES
EXAMPLE 3.5.3 C
EXAMPLE 3.5.6 1. .36 2. .11 3. .89
EXAMPLE 3.5.7 1. .49 2. .09 3. .91
EXAMPLE 3.5.8 1. .004 2. .8464 3. .6724 4. .3276
EXAMPLE 3.5.9 .3844
EXAMPLE 3.5.11 .067
EXAMPLE 3.5.12 1. .57 2. .012
EXAMPLE 3.5.13 .06
EXAMPLE 3.5.14 We assume that the purpose of the point spread is, on average, to
reduce all bets to 50/50 propositions. Thus the probability that a
randomly selected person will get all four guesses correct is
(.5)(.5)(.5)(.5) = 0625. If there are 25 participants, the expected
number who get a four guesses right is (.0625)(25) =1.5625. It
would be reasonable to expect that there would be one or two
winners per week.
EXAMPLE 3.5.15 You should switch.

ANSWERS TO PRACTICE EXERCISES

1. D 2. A 3. C 4. B 5. B
6. C 7. A 8. A 9. B 10. A
11. D 12. D 13. A 14. C 15. C
16. E 17. A 18. A 19. D