October 2015
Briefing
The migration crisis? Facts,
challenges and possible
solutions
Victoria Metcalfe-Hough
• The current surge in migration to the European Union (EU) is rapidly becoming the largest
and most complex facing Europe since the Second World War.
Key
messages • EU governments are facing huge policy and practical challenges in determining and
addressing the immediate and longer-term needs of refugees and other migrants.
• EU governments must ensure the protection of all migrants, irrespective of their status, and
ensure that they are treated in accordance with international law, including with regard to
the right to seek asylum.
• The EU urgently needs to put in place a coherent, long-term and comprehensive strategy
that maximises the benefits of migration and minimises its human and economic costs,
including as part of a wider international effort to manage global migration.
Shaping policy for development [Link]
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Since the beginning of 2014, approximately 800,000 According to UNHCR, in 2015 more than 80% of
people have arrived at European Union (EU) borders people arriving in Europe by sea are from the world’s ten
through irregular channels, fleeing conflict and violence at top refugee-producing countries. Over 50% are from Syria,
home or in search of a better life abroad. This migration 15% from Afghanistan, 6% from Eritrea and 4% from
surge is rapidly becoming the largest and most challenging Iraq – all countries in conflict or crisis. The largest number
that Europe has faced since the Second World War. of asylum applications to the EU in 2014 – 19% – were
Although it is not unique in either its causes or its drivers, made by Syrians. Applications from Afghans and Eritreans
it has become a highly sensitive political issue, generating have also increased significantly (EASO, 2015). There are
intense political and public debate and exacerbating also large numbers of people seeking access to Europe
pre-existing weaknesses in immigration systems across whose eligibility for international protection is more
Europe. Meanwhile, the lack of an adequate response by complex, or who may be travelling primarily for economic
EU governments has left hundreds of thousands of refugees reasons. These people are necessarily using the same
and other migrants increasingly vulnerable. routes as those fleeing conflict or violence. Whilst refugees
This policy brief outlines key facts relating to the are often considered particularly vulnerable, this current
current surge in irregular migration to Europe; sets out surge illustrates that, whatever the drivers of migration or
the policy and practical challenges facing EU governments an individual’s status, the risks facing all migrants using
in this regard; and offers suggestions on how to reframe irregular routes are considerable, including physical danger,
current approaches to facilitate a more effective and exploitation and abuse, human trafficking, sexual violence,
appropriate response. theft and extortion.
Even before the current situation, EU states tended to
view any large-scale international migration as a threat to
The current situation the sovereignty of their national and regional borders, their
The flow of refugees and others seeking irregular access to economies and their societies. Most member states have
Europe has increased dramatically: according to the UN reacted accordingly, tightening controls on irregular access
High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), over 590,000 to their territories and, in some cases, on legal channels
people have arrived by sea so far in 2015 – more than (Hagen-Zanker and Mallett, 2015).2 These increased
twice the number reaching Europe this way in the whole restrictions have not been effective in staving off the influx
of 2014. Almost 630,000 new asylum claims were made of refugees and other migrants; instead, they have resulted
last year to EU countries (EC, 2015a), compared with just in increased clandestine efforts to reach Europe, in turn
over 430,000 in 2013.1 The profile of those arriving is also exposing vulnerable migrants to even greater physical and
changing. Traditionally, the majority of migrants seeking other risks.
entry to Europe through irregular channels were individual
males. Today, however, whole families are making the
journey together, in some cases with elderly or disabled Why has this crisis developed now?
relatives and often with very young children: according to The majority of people seeking entry to Europe are fleeing
UNHCR, 13% of new arrivals in 2015 were women and conflict and violence in their home countries. Over 12
18% children. The routes they take are highly dynamic, million people inside Syria are in need of humanitarian
often shifting quickly in response to new restrictions at assistance and over four million have fled the country,
borders or security concerns in transit countries. People according to the UN. Iraqis too are facing a resurgence
are also taking greater risks. According to the International of violence and conflict, including in relation to so-called
Organisation for Migration (IOM), over 3,100 people have Islamic State: over four million Iraqis are currently
died en route to Europe so far in 2015, the vast majority displaced within and outside the country, according to
on the perilous sea journey across the Mediterranean UNHCR. In Afghanistan, Somalia, South Sudan, the
from North Africa or Turkey. The situation of migrant Central African Republic, Mali, Nigeria and Eritrea,
children, particularly those travelling alone, is particularly protracted conflicts and crises threaten the lives of millions
concerning. There are reports of unaccompanied children of civilians, forcing many to leave their home country in
disappearing after their arrival in Europe, raising fears that search of safety and security in Europe and elsewhere.
they have fallen prey to human traffickers (Squires, 2015). For many refugees, in the Middle East and elsewhere,
1 See [Link]
2 Data analysis by ODI suggests that restrictions on legal and irregular access to the EU has fluctuated and that, whilst some national policies have made
legal entry harder, access for some groups has become easier.
2 ODI Briefing
there is little or no real prospect of integration or even real in the Convention is a norm of customary international law
security in their countries of first destination. Consequently, and therefore binding on all states irrespective of whether
many choose to move on to Europe where, as outlined they are signatories to the Convention. Migrants who do
by the High Commissioner for Refugees, the right to seek not fall within the definition outlined in the Convention
asylum must be guaranteed. In the case of Syrian refugees, are protected under the broader international human rights
for example, host governments in the Middle East are framework. However, there is currently no universally
overwhelmed by the volume of arrivals and some are accepted legal definition of ‘migrant’.
becoming increasingly hostile, tightening borders, increasing Unlike other regional bodies – namely the African
visa or residency restrictions and in some cases effectively Union and the Organisation of American States – the EU
denying legal access to work. The security situation in some
host countries is also deteriorating, as demonstrated by
recent bomb attacks in Turkey and prevailing insecurity Terminology
in Lebanon. Meanwhile, the international community’s Migrant: The United Nations defines a migrant as
response to the situation in these countries has been wholly ‘an individual who has resided in a foreign country
inadequate. Responses to UNHCR calls for resettlement for more than one year irrespective of the causes,
places have been slow, and only a third of the estimated voluntary or involuntary, and the means, regular or
400,000 places needed have been pledged. Funding for the irregular, used to migrate’.3 This definition formally
refugee response in the Middle East is less than half what encompasses refugees, asylum-seekers and economic
is required, and emergency programmes have been cut as migrants.
a result. UNHCR estimates that 86% of Syrian refugees in
Jordan and 70% in Lebanon are living below the poverty Refugee: A refugee is an individual who ‘owing
line. to well-founded fear of being persecuted for
The failure of the international community to address reasons of race, religion, nationality, membership
conflicts, violence and human rights violations in countries of a particular social group or political opinion, is
outside the country of his nationality and is unable
of origin has been another key factor in the surge in
or, owing to such fear, is unwilling to avail himself
irregular migration to Europe. There is no international
of the protection of that country’.4 As articulated
political framework for ending the Syria conflict and no by UNHCR, whole groups may be considered as
clear international strategy for addressing the related conflict ‘prima facie’ refugees: ‘[s]ituations have … arisen
in Iraq. Afghanistan is still far from any real stability despite in which entire groups have been displaced under
years of international intervention, and the international circumstances indicating that members of the group
community seems to be out of ideas on how to end the could be considered individually as refugees. In such
decades-long conflict in Somalia. Efforts to address the situations the need to provide assistance is often
chronic poverty, inequality, weak governance and climate extremely urgent and it may not be possible for
and environmental changes that constitute ‘push’ factors in purely practical reasons to carry out an individual
many developing countries have also been inadequate. determination of refugee status for each member
of the group. Recourse has therefore been had to
so-called “group determination” of refugee status,
International legal frameworks whereby each member of the group is regarded
prima facie (i.e. in the absence of evidence to the
EU member states have made long-term legal commitments contrary) as a refugee’ (UNHCR, 2011).
under international human rights and refugee law, most
recently reaffirmed by member states in UN General Asylum-seeker: An asylum-seeker is ‘A person who
Assembly Resolution 69/167 of December 2014, to protect seeks safety from persecution or serious harm in
and promote the human rights of all migrants, irrespective a country other than his or her own and awaits a
of their status. As signatories to the 1951 Convention decision on the application for refugee status under
relating to the Status of Refugees and its 1967 Protocol, relevant international and national instruments. In
these states have specific responsibilities to provide case of a negative decision, the person must leave
international protection for people fleeing ‘persecution the country and may be expelled, as may any non-
national in an irregular or unlawful situation, unless
or serious harm’. The Convention obliges states to grant
permission to stay is provided on humanitarian or
refugees’ rights to work, education, housing and the judicial
other related grounds.’5
system, and protects them from punishment for entering a
country illegally. The principle of non-refoulement outlined
3 See [Link]
4 Article 1 A (2), 1951 Convention relating to the Status of Refugees.
5 See [Link]
3
does not have a regional convention on refugees or a fully In addition, dealing humanely and appropriately
integrated common asylum or migration policy, though with large numbers of people arriving through irregular
European human rights law does apply to the protection channels, whose individual claims for asylum are
of all migrants. The current EU asylum system attempts to subsequently rejected, is resource-intensive. Receiving
harmonise the rules and conditions that apply to asylum- governments also face major challenges in the process
seekers across all EU member states. The core issue – the of returning failed asylum-seekers, including unsafe
number admitted – is a national decision, however, and there conditions in countries of origin or a refusal by their
are stark differences among member states in the regulation respective governments to accept those being returned.
and level of compliance with EU Directives on asylum. As Third, there is a substantial financial cost to countries
a result, people seeking asylum tend to apply to states they receiving large-scale influxes of refugees and others granted
consider to have more favourable policies: in 2014, almost international protection in terms of integration support
three-quarters of asylum applications went to just five of the (e.g. housing, education, health and other welfare services).
EU’s 28 member states (EC, 2015b). Although the European Given the slow economic recovery in many EU states, this
Commission has put forward a number of proposals to is not a cost that all are willing to bear. There are also
enhance joint migration and asylum policies at the EU level concerns about how long refugees will remain in Europe,
in recent months, progress has been slow. and thus how long they will need such support. Certainly,
global trends suggest that many arrivals may have to
remain for years: of the total global refugee population in
Key challenges facing European governments 2014, more than half had been displaced for more than
Whilst much of the criticism of Europe’s management ten years (Crawford et al., 2015). The financial costs of
of the current crisis is warranted, member states face a integration can be offset against longer-term economic and
number of genuine challenges – in policy and practical other gains and, as past experience has shown, the earlier
terms – in instituting a more effective response. the provision of adequate integration support, the quicker
First, the practical challenge presented by the sheer scale refugees can become self-sufficient, gain employment
of the crisis should not be underestimated. The volume of and contribute taxes (OECD, 2015). However, many
people moving, the diversity of their profiles, countries of governments are more concerned about the immediate
origin and vulnerabilities and the dynamic nature of their strain on welfare services, perceived competition over jobs
routes of entry and the clandestine means they often use all and the possible impact on social cohesion.
present an incredibly complex and demanding situation. Fourth, the onward movement of refugees and other
For Italy, Greece, Croatia and Hungary – the EU countries migrants within the EU is a key concern for many
on the frontline – the volume and speed of the influx has governments. Most refugees and asylum-seekers have
simply overwhelmed their asylum systems at a time when endured multiple rounds of displacement even before their
their economies are particularly weak. arduous journey to Europe, and with early and adequate
Second, identifying those in need of international integration support they may be more likely to invest in
protection and those who are not is complex. Whilst the building a life in the country where they were formally
refugee status of people fleeing Syria or other conflicts is relocated or resettled. Inevitably, however, there are
more clear-cut, others needing international protection individuals who want to move on to other countries where
may not fit within the legal definition of a refugee. As they have relatives or where they believe their economic
highlighted in previous research, for many of these people opportunities will be better, either through employment
the line between ‘forced’ and ‘voluntary’ international or welfare support. The significant discrepancies between
migration is increasingly blurred: their migration standards of protection and assistance provided by
is driven by an array of overlapping ‘push’ factors national asylum systems and integration programmes
relating to chronic poverty, inequality, environmental within the EU exacerbate this.
degradation and the effects of climate change, as well as Fifth, public opinion in Europe on international
‘pull’ factors including real and perceived economic and migration is highly divided, affecting both government
educational opportunities in Europe. The complex nature policies and integration prospects for refugees and other
of contemporary global migration patterns and drivers migrants. Media images conveying the terrible risks
is presenting huge challenges to existing international, refugees from Syria are taking to get to Europe have to a
regional and national legal and policy frameworks (Zetter, degree altered the public discourse, but anti-immigration
2015). Notwithstanding specific legal protections for policies remain a key theme in right-wing politics across
refugees, the current use of simplistic categories of ‘forced’ Europe (Erlanger, 2015). It is unclear how long public
and ‘voluntary’ migration risks creating a two-tiered sympathy for Syrian refugees will last, or whether it
system of protection and assistance in which the rights and extends to refugees and other forced migrants from
needs of those not qualifying as ‘refugees’ under the legal countries with a lower profile in European media. Even
definition are effectively disregarded (Carling, 2015). governments that have been more welcoming have found
4 ODI Briefing
winning their voters around to a more measured approach resettlement programmes, increasing humanitarian visas or
to migration an on-going challenge (Reuters, 2015a). establishing temporary international protection for those
Finally, obtaining a coherent approach from all 28 EU with a prima facie case for refugee status and increasing
members is proving extraordinarily difficult. Although in student, work and family reunification visas for those in
recent months there has been growing recognition of the need need of international protection but who may not fall
for an EU-wide response, the crisis has also compounded easily within the legal definition of a refugee. This would
underlying political and economic divisions within Europe. improve the management of the current migration surge,
Some Central and Eastern European states have rejected and more importantly reduce the need for refugees and
what they perceive as a domineering attitude from Germany; other migrants to resort to dangerous irregular channels.
arguments over movement across their shared border has Second, EU states must adopt a coherent, long-term
reignited tensions between Serbia and Croatia; and the UK and comprehensive strategy that tackles both the causes
has declined to participate in a plan to relocate within the EU and the consequences of the current influx, including
a further 120,000 refugees currently in Greece, Hungary and as part of a wider international effort to maximise the
Italy, agreed by EU leaders on 22 September.6 benefits and minimise the human and economic costs of
global migration. This must provide for adequate political-
diplomatic and economic investments in countries of
Ways forward? origin, transit or first destination outside the EU, as well as
The relocation plan has generally been viewed as a improving asylum systems and resettlement in destination
tentative step forward. However, there are concerns about countries within the EU. The concepts of burden-sharing
how enforceable the agreement is, particularly given that and solidarity must be at the heart of this approach. Given
four EU states voted against it, one of which, Slovakia, the ever-increasing numbers of arrivals, failure to ensure
has indicated that it will launch a legal challenge. More swift and fair relocation across the EU risks collapsing
generally, the repeated calls for a more robust, strategic the asylum systems of even the wealthiest states (Reuters,
and comprehensive response have yet to see results. 2015b). Sharing the financial burden with refugee hosting
Notwithstanding the enormity of the task, there are a states in regions of origin through increased financial and
number of concrete actions that European governments other investments is also crucial: the recent EU pledge of
could take to institute a more effective and appropriate up to €1 billion to Turkey in 2015–16 is a welcome move,
response to the current crisis. but a more strategic approach is needed (EC, 2015c).
First and foremost, in line with their existing legal Moving away from short-term approaches to refugee
commitments, EU governments must ensure that the crises overseas and instituting multi-year funding and
protection of all migrants, but particularly women, programme cycles is necessary to ensure adequate support
children and other vulnerable groups, irrespective of their for the integration of refugees in their regions of origin.
migration status, is the basis for their decision-making and In political terms, such investments also demonstrate the
action.7 Providing appropriate protection for migrants international solidarity needed to ensure an adequate
does not mean that governments should allow blanket international response to the situation of refugees
access. Rather, it means identifying those who are in globally. Europe cannot be effective in lobbying for
need of international protection and affording them such more appropriate asylum policies in first destination or
protection accordingly, and, for those whose asylum transit countries if it is not willing to demonstrate its own
claims are rejected, ensuring their humane and appropriate commitments to international legal standards of protection.
treatment, including safe return to their country of origin. Greater political-diplomatic efforts in countries of
In the most immediate and practical terms, providing origin could help bring a swifter end to the crises that
minimum protection for all migrants arriving in Europe are generating large-scale forced migration. In addition,
through irregular channels means ensuring that EU search although there is some debate about the impact of
and rescue operations at sea are robust and cover the widest development aid on migration from developing countries,
geographic area possible; ensuring that reception facilities a more targeted aid approach may help address the
are adequate for the volume and diversity of arrivals; and instability, chronic poverty and inequality that are
ensuring swift and fair processing of asylum claims and understood to be key drivers of irregular migration
appropriate action once status has been determined. (Clemens, 2014).
As repeatedly urged by the UN High Commissioner for Third, the current situation must be reframed not simply
Refugees and others, there is an equally urgent need to as a crisis for Europe, but also as an opportunity. The
extend, improve and harmonise legal channels of access human capital of refugees and other migrants has barely
to the EU. This includes significantly expanding current featured in political and public discourse. In practice,
6 The 120,000 is in addition to 40,000 whom EU leaders agreed to relocate in May. EC (2015).
7 See, for example, Guterres et al. (2015).
5
however, they invariably bring skills, entrepreneurial EC (2015a) Asylum in the EU. Brussels: European Commission.
expertise and capacities that may help address the labour EC (2015b) Fact Sheet – Questions and Answers
market and income gaps that many EU states face as their on the European Agenda on Migration. Brussels:
populations age and birth rates decline (Bodewig, 2015). European Commission.
Business leaders including Germany’s industrial federation EC (2015c) Fact Sheet - Draft Action Plan: Stepping up
BDI and the UK’s Institute of Directors have argued for EU–Turkey Cooperation on Support of Refugees and
migration policies that meet these needs (Richter, 2015; Migration Management in View of the Situation in Syria
Wilkinson, 2015), and recent analysis by the UK Office and Iraq. 6 October.
for Budget Responsibility (OBR) concludes that ‘overall Erlanger, S. (2015) ‘Rise of Far-right Party in Denmark
migration has a positive impact on the sustainability of Reflects Europe’s Unease’. New York Times, 19 June.
the public finances’ (OBR, 2013; Migration Observatory, Guterres et al. (2015) ‘Joint Statement on Protection in the
2015). Mediterranean in Light of the EU Council’s Decision of
There is no doubt that the challenges faced by European 23 April 2015’. Press Release. UNHCR, 27 April.
governments as a result of the current surge in irregular Hagen-Zanker, J. and Mallett, R. (2015) ‘“Fortress Europe”?
migration are significant, but decisive action is now long There’s No Such Thing’. Infographic. London: ODI.
overdue. Legally, practically and morally, Europe must Migration Observatory (2015) Briefing: The Fiscal Impact of
come together to institute a more humane and effective Immigration in the UK. Oxford: Migration Observatory.
response. As articulated by the Special Representative of OBR (2013) Fiscal Sustainability Report. London: Office
the UN Secretary General on International Migration: of Budget Responsibility.
OECD (2015) Living Up To History by Addressing the
there is no reason to require people seeking asylum to Humanitarian Migration Crisis in Europe. Paris: OECD.
run a gamut of desert crossings, abuse by smugglers, Reuters (2015a) ‘Support for Merkel Falls over Handling
beatings, extortion, rape and exploitation – or to have of Refugee Crisis’. 26 September.
them experience the trauma of watching their friends Reuters (2015b) ‘Germany Expects Up To 1.5 Million Asylum
and family die along the way. Doing so is cruel and Seekers in 2015, According to New Report’. 5 October.
inhuman and it violates the spirit of all refugee, human Richter, M. (2015) ‘German Industries Make Economic
rights and immigration laws (Sutherland, 2015). Case To Welcome Refugees’. AFP, 6 September.
Squires, N. (2015) ‘More Than 5,000 Migrant Children
“Disappear” in Italy after Crossing the Mediterranean’.
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