New Zealand Trend Analysis
GDP
7
6
5
GDP Growth (annual %)
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20
Years
1- GDP
Data wasn’t available before 1978.
GDP growth trends are shown in the graph for New Zealand, covering the period from 1978
to 2020:
1978-1984: Economic Volatility:
The graph starts in 1978 with a GDP growth rate just above 1%.
There is a sharp increase to nearly 7% by 1981, suggesting a period of rapid
economic growth.
This peak is followed by a steep decline into negative growth by 1982, indicating a
recession.
The immediate recovery after 1982 shows the resilience of the economy or the
impact of economic policies responding to the recession.
1985-1991: Stabilization and Another Downturn:
Between 1985 and 1987, the economy appears to stabilize with moderate growth
rates of around 2-3%.
However, in the late 1980s, growth accelerates again, peaking around 1987.
This is followed by another dramatic downturn, with growth rates plummeting into
the negative by 1991, possibly signifying another recessionary period.
1992-1999: Recovery and Growth:
Post-1991, there's a period of recovery, with growth rates climbing back to positive
and reaching around 5% by mid-1990s.
This could be indicative of a strong response to the previous recession, possibly
through economic reforms or favourable global economic conditions.
The latter part of the 1990s shows a decrease in growth rates, although they remain
positive.
2000-2007: Relative Stability:
The start of the new millennium sees relatively stable and consistent growth,
hovering between 2% and 4%.
This period of stability could reflect New Zealand's economic reforms taking effect, a
period of global economic stability, or a combination of both.
2008-2010: The Global Financial Crisis:
A sharp decline is observed around 2008, which aligns with the global financial crisis.
The negative growth rate in this period would be consistent with worldwide
economic challenges.
The graph shows a quick recovery by 2010, suggesting effective fiscal and monetary
policy interventions.
2011-2019: Growth and Upturn:
After the crisis, the economy shows an upturn with growth rates again stabilizing
between 2% to 3%.
A peak around 2016 indicates a period of strong economic performance, before a
gradual decline towards the end of the decade.
This could reflect both domestic factors, such as increased tourism or export
revenues, and the global economic climate.
2020: COVID-19 Pandemic Impact:
The most notable feature is the sharp decline in GDP growth at the end of the graph,
which is consistent with the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.
This represents the most significant downturn in the period displayed, reflecting the
global economic shutdowns, border closures, and the halt of non-essential business
activities.
General Observations
The economy of New Zealand, as depicted, has gone through cycles of boom and
bust, which are normal in a capitalist economic system.
Periods of high growth are often followed by corrections or recessions, as part of the
economic cycle.
Long-term trends indicate that while the economy has faced significant downturns,
the overall trajectory has been one of growth and recovery.
2- Inflation
Inflation
20
15
Inflation (annual %)
10
-5
19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
Years
Data wasn’t available before 1973.
The graph shows the inflation rates in New Zealand from 1973 to 2019.
1973-1984: High Volatility and Inflation:
The inflation rate starts at around 10% in 1973.
There's a period of high volatility with sharp increases and decreases, peaking at
around 18% in the late 1970s and early 1980s.
This could be indicative of the oil shocks of the 1970s, as well as global economic
instability.
1985-1991: Disinflation Period:
From the mid-1980s, there's a notable downward trend in inflation, decreasing from
highs of 16-18% to around 2% by 1991.
This disinflation period likely reflects the impact of monetary policies aimed at
stabilizing the currency and reducing inflation.
1992-1999: Low and Stable Inflation
The 1990s show a period of relatively low and stable inflation, hovering between 1%
and 3%.
This stability suggests effective monetary policy and a period of economic growth
without significant price level increases.
2000-2008: Continued Stability
The stability continues into the early 2000s, with inflation rates generally remaining
between 2% and 4%.
This period includes the early 2000s tech bubble and its aftermath, which New
Zealand appears to have navigated without significant inflationary spikes.
2009-2011: Global Financial Crisis Impact
There was a brief dip in inflation around 2009, possibly reflecting the global financial
crisis's deflationary pressures.
However, the graph shows that inflation rates picked up relatively quickly post-crisis,
suggesting that New Zealand's economy was resilient or that stimulus measures were
effective.
2012-2019: Low Inflation Environment
From 2012 onwards, inflation rates are generally low, ranging from just below 0% up
to around 2%.
The low inflation environment could be attributed to global economic trends, such as
the prevalence of low interest rates and subdued wage pressures.
General Observations
Over the nearly five decades covered, New Zealand moved from a high inflation
environment to a low inflation one.
The transition to lower inflation rates in the mid-1980s corresponds with many
countries' adoption of anti-inflationary policies, including New Zealand's Reserve
Bank Act 1989 which focuses on price stability.
The low and stable inflation from the 1990s onwards suggests successful monetary
policy management and a maturing economy. The graph indicates that New Zealand
managed to avoid hyperinflation and deflation, which are both harmful to economic
stability.
[8:42 PM, 2/9/2024] Asma: The provided graph illustrates the unemployment rate as a
percentage of the total labor force in New Zealand from 1986 to 2020. Here's a detailed
trend analysis:
1986-1991: Rising Unemployment
Starting in 1986, the unemployment rate is around 4%.
There is a sharp increase to over 10% by 1991, indicating a significant rise in unemployment
which could be due to domestic recessionary pressures or global economic downturns.
1992-1999: Fluctuations and Recovery
After peaking in the early 1990s, the unemployment rate starts to decline, indicating a
recovery phase.
Throughout the 1990s, the rate fluctuates but shows a general downward trend, falling to
around 6% by the end of the decade.
This could be attributed to economic reforms, recovery in global markets, and increased
demand for New Zealand's exports.
2000-2007: Stability and Low Unemployment
The early 2000s see a period of stability and further reduction in unemployment, reaching as
low as 4%.
This period of low unemployment coincides with the global economic boom and may also
reflect New Zealand's economic policies promoting job growth.
2008-2010: Impact of the Global Financial Crisis
The unemployment rate rises sharply during the global financial crisis, peaking close to 7%.
The increase in unemployment during this period is consistent with the worldwide economic
slowdown, which affected demand for goods and services.
2011-2019: Gradual Improvement and Stability
After the crisis, the unemployment rate starts to decrease gradually, stabilizing around 5-6%.
This period may reflect the recovery of the global economy and the effectiveness of New
Zealand's domestic policies in fostering a conducive environment for job creation.
2020: Recent Trends and Potential Pandemic Impact
The graph shows a slight uptick in unemployment heading towards 2020, but without data
for 2020 itself, it's not possible to see the full impact of the COVID-19 pandemic from this
graph alone.
Given the global economic disruption caused by the pandemic, it's likely that subsequent
data would show a significant increase in unemployment.
General Observations
The trend from the late 1980s to early 1990s suggests structural adjustments in the
economy, possibly as New Zealand reoriented its economy towards new sectors.
The decline in unemployment through the 1990s and early 2000s is indicative of a period of
economic growth and stability.
The rise during the global financial crisis shows the vulnerability of New Zealand's economy
to global shocks, despite previous periods of stability.
The overall downward trend post-crisis suggests a recovery and resilience in the labor
market.
[8:46 PM, 2/9/2024] Asma: The graph you've provided shows the trends in fertilizer
consumption as a percentage of fertilizer production in New Zealand from 1973 to 2018.
Here's a detailed analysis of the trends shown:
### 1973-1984: Steady Consumption
- The graph starts in 1973 with fertilizer consumption at around 100% of production,
indicating that New Zealand was consuming as much fertilizer as it produced.
- Throughout the 1970s and early 1980s, consumption remains relatively stable, fluctuating
slightly around the 100% mark but not showing any significant long-term increase or
decrease.
### 1985-1994: Gradual Increase
- From the mid-1980s, there is a gentle upward trend, with consumption slowly increasing to
around 150% of production by 1994.
- This gradual increase suggests a steady intensification of agriculture, possibly reflecting
both an increase in the total area farmed and a move towards more fertilizer-intensive
farming practices.
### 1995-2003: Fluctuations and Growth
- The period from 1995 to 2003 is characterized by more significant fluctuations in fertilizer
consumption, with peaks and troughs varying from just over 100% to nearly 250%.
- The peaks during this period could be associated with specific agricultural booms or
possibly with the increased availability of fertilizer on the market.
### 2004-2008: Sharp Rise and Peak
- There is a sharp rise in consumption beginning around 2004, reaching a peak at nearly
350% of production in 2008.
- This peak could be due to several factors, such as increased profitability in certain
agricultural sectors, government policies promoting agricultural growth, or a surge in dairy
farming, which is particularly fertilizer-intensive.
### 2009-2010: Dramatic Fall
- Following the 2008 peak, there is a dramatic fall in consumption, dropping back to around
200%.
- This sharp decrease could be the result of the global financial crisis affecting the
agricultural sector, leading to reduced investment in inputs like fertilizer.
### 2011-2018: Recovery and High Consumption
- After the fall in 2009-2010, there is a recovery, with consumption climbing again and
remaining at high levels between 250% and 300% of production for the rest of the period.
- The consistent high level of consumption suggests a strong agricultural sector with ongoing
intensive farming practices.
### Overall Observations:
- The general upward trend over the 45-year period indicates that New Zealand's agricultural
sector has become increasingly reliant on fertilizer, suggesting intensification of agriculture
and increased productivity.
- The fluctuations in consumption relative to production may reflect changes in agricultural
economics, farming practices, environmental regulations, and global market conditions.
- The data suggests that New Zealand has become increasingly reliant on imported fertilizer
or has significantly increased its production capacity over time, given the consumption rates
often exceed 100% of what is produced domestically.
- It is important to consider environmental factors alongside economic ones, as the high use
of fertilizers can have detrimental effects on ecosystems, water quality, and carbon
emissions.
To provide a more comprehensive analysis, one would also need to consider the type of
fertilizers used, changes in domestic fertilizer production capacity, import and export data,
and how shifts in global commodity prices and environmental policies have influenced these
trends.
[8:49 PM, 2/9/2024] Asma: The graph you've provided shows the trends in food exports
from New Zealand as a percentage of total merchandise exports from 1973 to 2019. Here's a
detailed trend analysis:
### 1973-1984: Early Fluctuations Stabilizing Around 40%
- Starting in 1973, food exports account for a little over 40% of total merchandise exports.
- There are some fluctuations in the first few years, but the percentage remains relatively
stable around the 40% mark.
- This period could reflect a consistent demand for New Zealand food products, possibly with
agricultural exports forming a significant part of the country's export economy.
### 1985-1994: Gradual Increase and Stability
- From the mid-1980s, there's a slight upward trend, with food exports growing to represent
about 45% of merchandise exports by the early 1990s.
- This increase might indicate a strengthening of New Zealand's food export market or an
expansion of agricultural production for export.
### 1995-2004: Stability with Minor Fluctuations
- Throughout the late 1990s and early 2000s, the percentage remains stable with minor
fluctuations, hovering around 45% to 50%.
- The stability suggests a mature and steady demand for New Zealand's food exports.
### 2005-2014: Steady Growth
- Starting in the mid-2000s, there's a more noticeable and consistent upward trend.
- By 2014, food exports grow to represent around 55% of total merchandise exports.
- This period may reflect increased global demand for New Zealand's food products, possibly
in the dairy, meat, and wine sectors.
### 2015-2019: Accelerated Growth
- The last five years of the graph show a sharper increase, with food exports reaching over
60% of merchandise exports by 2019.
- This acceleration could be due to a variety of factors, such as successful trade agreements,
increased international reputation for quality, or shifts in global food markets favoring New
Zealand's export offerings.
### Overall Observations:
- The general upward trend indicates that food has become an increasingly important
component of New Zealand's export economy over the decades.
- The gradual increase could suggest that New Zealand has successfully expanded its food
export markets and has been able to meet growing global demands.
- The trend also suggests that New Zealand has potentially diversified its food export
products, improved quality, and value-added to its food products.
- The increasing trend in the last few years might also suggest that New Zealand's economy
is becoming more reliant on food exports as a percentage of total merchandise exports.
To provide more insights, one could look at the specific types of food products that have
driven this growth, changes in global demand, trade policy developments, and how New
Zealand's agricultural practices have evolved to support this growth. The impact of such an
increase on the domestic economy, including effects on land use and sustainability practices,
would also be an important consideration.
