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BUDGETING AND FORECASTING

A budget is a detailed quantitative plan for acquiring and using financial and other resources over a specific
period. Managers use budgets for planning and control. Planning involves developing objectives and preparing
various budgets to achieve those objectives. Control is a management function that ensures the attainment
of the company’s goals through the efforts of all the departments in the company.
Hence, preparing a budget is a powerful skill that allows finance managers and accountants to develop to help
companies make better financial decisions (Brewer, 2021).

Budgeting Process
Let us define the following terminologies:
1. Budget Period. It is the period for which a budget is prepared and used, which may then be subdivided
into control periods. Before preparing a budget, the organization should decide the budget period. While
there are no clear-cut rules on selecting a budget period, budgeting must be related to a specific period.
Generally, a budget period depends upon the nature and type of business. Some companies prepare a
budget for more than one (1) year, while others limit the period to one (1) year. The budget period should
neither be too long nor too short. Also, there must be sufficient time to prepare and implement the
budget. Most businesses usually prepare an annual budget to be easily compared with the financial
accounting year.
2. Operating Budgets. It ordinarily covers a one (1) year period corresponding to the company’s fiscal year.
Many companies divide their annual budget into four (4) quarters. A continuous budget is a 12-month
budget that rolls forward one (1) month or quarter as the current month or quarter is completed.
3. Budget Manual. The budget manual is a collection of instructions governing the responsibilities of persons
and the procedures, forms, and records relating to the preparation and use of budgetary data. It is likely
to contain the objectives of the budgetary process.

Generally, budgets are prepared according to the organization's objectives in the budget manual. Each
executive's responsibility and functions regarding budgets are shown in the budget manual to avoid
duplication or overlapping duties. The budget manual is prepared to give complete information to every
employee of an organization relating to budgets to avoid misunderstandings.
The managers or heads of various departments in a company are responsible for carrying out the
departmental or functional budgets in the ordinary course of their duties. The following managers usually
prepare functional budgets:
• The sales manager prepares the sales budget;
• The production manager prepares the production budget;
• Purchasing manager prepares the direct materials budget;
• Various cost center heads prepare their individual production, administration, and distribution cost
center budgets for their cost centers; and
• The finance manager consolidates all these budgets and then prepares the cash budget, budgeted
income statement, and budgeted balance sheet.

Budget coordination and administration are usually the budget committee's responsibilities. The budget
committee is often assisted by a budget officer, typically an accountant. Every part of the company should be
represented in the committee. The budget committee is responsible for preparing the budget manual,

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allocating the responsibilities for preparing functional budgets, issuing timetables, finalizing the budget, and
communicating with the appropriate managers. The budget committee is also responsible for comparing the
actual results with the budget and investigating variances until the budget period ends.

Figure 1: Master Budget Interrelationships

Source: Brewer et al., 2021, p. 346.
Departmental/Functional Budget
A departmental/functional budget is a budget of income and or expenditure applicable to a particular function.
A function may refer to a department or a process. Functional budgets frequently include (CIMA Operational
Paper, 2019):
• Production Budget;
• Sales Budget;
• Purchasing Budget; and
• Personnel Budget.

Operating Budget
The step-by-step budgeting procedures may vary among different organizations, depending on the size of the
complexity of a business entity. Most businesses follow the steps below:
1. Identification of Principal Budget Factor (sales is usually the principal budget factor);
2. Preparation of a Sales Budget, assuming that sales are the principal budget factor (in units and value
for each product, based on a sales forecast);
3. Preparation of Ending Inventory Budget;
4. Preparation of Production Budget;
5. Preparation of Direct Materials, Direct Labor and Overhead Budget;
6. Preparation of Cash Budget; and
7. Preparation of a Master Budget.

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Sales Budget
For many organizations, the budgeting process starts with establishing the sales volume. The sales volume is
known as the principal budget factor because it sets the limit for an organization. Preparing a sales budget is
a planning tool that enables management to set a standard for all organizational departments, such as sales,
finance, production, purchasing, etc. When the sales budget is approved, other budgets can then be prepared.
The following factors must be considered by the sales team when preparing a sales budget:
• Past sales performance;
• Market trends;
• Seasonal fluctuations; and
• Market research on sales price of the industry.
All of these may be used to generate a sales forecast. In addition, the following resources must be considered
as well:
• Production capacity;
• Availability of raw materials; and
• Financial capability to support capital expenditures and raw materials acquisition (especially if the
operating cycle is long).

Since the sales budget sets the target or quota for the sales team to achieve, management must consider
setting an achievable target within the means and resources of the company yet challenging enough to allow
healthy growth for the organization.

Illustration of Sales Budget:

A sales budget may be prepared monthly, quarterly, or yearly. The sales budget depends on the gathered data
by the company’s sales team when they are in a planning meeting together with a management accountant.
A sales budget may include a plan for a sales increase every year of 10%, either through a price increase or a
production increase. Below is a sample of a monthly sales budget.

Monthly Sales Budget

Product Product A Product B Product C
Forecasted unit sales 3,000 4,000 5,000
Price per unit P1,375 P1,925 P2,750
Total Monthly Budgeted Sales P4,125,000 P7,700,000 P13,750,000

Production Budget and Direct Materials Budget

The production and direct materials budgets depend on the sales budget since the budget dictates how many
units should be produced. We need to consider the existing inventory level in preparing the production
budget. The beginning inventory for the first budget period is usually based on the current inventory level.
Finished goods inventory will be used to compute the number of units produced. In contrast, raw materials
inventory will be used to compute the number of materials to be purchased. Hence, inventory is also a
principal budget factor, as well as the availability of raw materials.

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Formulas to remember:
Production (Finished Goods) Direct Materials (Raw Materials)
Forecasted Sales xx Required Raw Materials Usage xx
Add: Ending inventory xx Add: Ending inventory xx
Less: Beginning inventory xx Less: Beginning inventory xx
Budgeted Production xx Budgeted Purchases xx

The above formulas are derived from the computation of ending finished goods inventory and ending raw
materials inventory. The computation is as follows:

Beginning Finished Goods XX Beginning Raw Materials XX

Add: Produced Goods during the period XX Add: Purchases XX
Total Finished Goods Available for Sale XX Total Raw Materials Available for Use XX
Less: Cost of Finished Goods Sold XX Less: Raw Materials Used XX
Ending Finished Goods Inventory XX Ending Raw Materials Inventory XX

Note: The above computations can be used for peso values and units.

Illustration of Production Budget:

A production budget can be prepared monthly, quarterly, or yearly. Below is a sample of a quarterly
production budget in units.

Finished Goods First Quarter Second Quarter Third Quarter Fourth Quarter
Forecasted Unit Sales 3,000 4,000 5,000 7,500
Add: Ending inventory 350 350 350 350
Total Production Required 3,350 4,350 5,350 7,850
Less: Beginning Inventory 350 350 350 350
Units to be Produced 3,000 4,000 5,000 7,500

Illustration of Direct Materials Budget:

A direct materials budget can be prepared monthly, quarterly, or yearly. Below is a sample of a company's
quarterly direct materials budget (in units) that makes a jogging suit. 10 yards of a special fabric is required to
produce a unit of a jogging suit.

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First Second Third Fourth

Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter
Jogging suit (budgeted production in units) 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000
Multiply by: fabric/unit (yards) 10 10 10 10
Total fabric budgeted usage (yards) in the production 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000
Add: planned ending inventory 3,000 3,600 3,800 4,200
Total fabric available for use 63,000 73,600 83,800 94,200
Less: Beginning Inventory 3,000 3,600 3,800 4,200
Required Fabric to be Purchased 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000

Fabric cost per yard P3.00 P3.00 P3.00 P3.00

Total Cost of fabric to purchase P180,000 P210,000 P240,000 P270,000

Direct Labor Budget and Overhead Budget

The direct labor budget determines the number of work hours required to produce or manufacture the items
listed in the production budget. The overhead budget estimates every planned expense incurred while
producing the company's goods or services.

Illustration of Direct Labor Budget:

Assume that the company that makes the jogging suits require 3 hours of sewing for every unit. Below is a
sample of a quarterly direct labor budget.
First Second Third Fourth
Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter
Jogging suit (budgeted production in units) 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000
Multiply by: the sewing hours required per unit 3 3 3 3
Total Sewing (Direct Labor) Hours 18,000 21,000 24,000 27,000

Direct Labor Rate per Hour P70.00 P70.00 P70.00 P70.00

Total Direct Labor Costs 1,260,000 1,470,000 1,680,000 1,890,000

Note: The overhead budget is almost similar to the direct labor budget.

Cash Budget
The term "cash budget" refers to managing a company's cash inflows and outflows over a specified period.
These calculations determine if the organization has enough cash and cash equivalents to cover its operating
requirements in the short term. This budget almost resembles the cash flow statements but contains only the
projected cash flows, not the actual ones (Vaidya, 2023).

Master Budget
A master budget is a key planning tool that summarizes the company's financial situation by summarizing
financial statements, cash flow predictions, and the financial strategy (Carlson, 2022).

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Forecasting Techniques in Budgeting

Forecasting techniques are used to prepare sales, production, materials, labor, and overhead budgets.
Forecasting techniques in budgeting are based on historical data to predict future values. Hence, forecasting
presupposes that the past can be used to predict the future. Before using any forecasting technique, past data
must be assessed for accuracy and appropriateness for its intended purpose. There is no point in using
sophisticated forecasting techniques with unreliable data. To be able to make a good forecast, the methods
of data collection must be fair. Furthermore, appropriate choices of dependent and independent variables
must be made. The three (3) types of forecasting techniques will be covered (CIMA Operational Paper, 2019).
• High Low Method;
• Linear Regression; and
• Time Series Analysis.

The High-Low Method

Given that the production level has been set according to the key budget factor, it is crucial to forecast
production costs. In obtaining the highest and lowest cost, calculate the projected cost using a simple linear
equation as follows:

y = a + bx

where, y = total cost b = variable cost

a = fixed cost x = output

Total Cost
b

a Fixed Cost

Figure 2: The High-Low Method

Source: CIMA Operational Paper P1, 2019

The High-Low Method requires information on costs incurred at various levels of output. This data can predict
the costs incurred at other output levels.

Illustration: For the past five (5) years, ABC Company has recorded the following costs:
Year Output (units) Cost (Php)
20X1 32,000.00 505,000.00
20X2 38,000.00 590,000.00
20X3 49,000.00 750,000.00
20X4 53,000.00 820,000.00
20X5 50,000.00 800,000.00

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Required: Using the High-Low Method, project the total cost for 20x6 when the company’s production budget
expects to deliver 52,000 units.
Step 1: Identify the highest and lowest output and the corresponding costs.
Output (units) Cost (Php)
High 53,000.00 820,000.00
Low 32,000.00 505,000.00
Step 2: Subtract the lowest output/costs from the highest output/costs.
Output (units) Cost (Php)
High 53,000.00 820,000.00
Low 32,000.00 505,000.00
21,000.00 315,000.00

Step 3: Calculate the variable cost per unit (in management accounting, this is computed by dividing the total
variable costs by the number of units produced).

𝐻𝑖𝑔ℎ 𝑐𝑜𝑠𝑡 − 𝐿𝑜𝑤 𝑐𝑜𝑠𝑡 315,000

𝑉𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑐𝑜𝑠𝑡 𝑝𝑒𝑟 𝑢𝑛𝑖𝑡 = = = Php 15
𝐻𝑖𝑔ℎ 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑝𝑢𝑡 − 𝐿𝑜𝑤 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑝𝑢𝑡 21,000

Step 4: Calculate the fixed cost by substituting the variable cost into either one of the cost equations (high or
low).
High (Php) Low (Php)
Total Cost 820,000.00 505,000.00
Less: variable cost 795,000.00 480,000.00
Fixed cost Php25,000.00 Php25,000.00
Step 5: Determine the cost equation and calculate the projected cost.
y = 15x + 25,000
To calculate the projected cost of 52,000 units (this is an example):
x = 52,000 units
y = 15 (52,000) + 25,000 = Php805,000.

Linear Regression
One major drawback of the high-low method is that it only utilizes two (2) historical data sets as the basis for
projecting costs. Further, it assumes that the cost function is a straight line. In most cases, however, this
relationship is not always a straight line. Hence, we can use a scatter graph to show the relationship between
two variables (CIMA Operational Paper, 2019).
Illustration:
Let us say you wanted to analyze the relationship between the advertisement expense and the sales volume
of a particular product. The following data shows the advertising expense and sales volume for the previous
months:

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Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Advertising expense ('000) 24 13 9 42 31 16 12 35
Sales units ('000) 13 10 9 18 16 9 13 20

The scatter graph shows that the relationship between advertising expense and sales level is not straight. Even
then, you may notice that the plotted dots, although scattered, resembles a rising trend, with higher sales
volume at higher levels of advertising expense.

Figure 3: Scatter Graph

Source: CIMA Operational Paper P1, 2019, p. 108.

We can draw a trend line if a trend can be seen in a scatter graph. We can use the equation of that line of best
fit to make our sales predictions. We can achieve this using regression analysis. Regression analysis is also
known as the method of least squares. It is a more accurate technique to estimate the line of best fit.
Regression analysis is a more sophisticated technique as it includes all the data in the projection. To calculate
the values of a and b for the straight-line expression y = a + bx, the following formulas are used:

𝑛∑𝑥𝑦 − 𝛴𝑥𝛴𝑦
𝑏=
𝑛∑𝑥 2 − (𝛴𝑥)2
𝑎 = 𝑦̅ − 𝑏𝑥̅
Where 𝑦̅ and 𝑥̅ means the average of the values of y and x, respectively.
Illustration: The method of least squares, the advertising and sales data are as follows:

Month x Y xy x2 y2
1 24 13 312 576 169
2 13 10 130 169 100
3 9 9 81 81 81
4 42 18 756 1,764 324
5 31 16 496 961 256
6 16 9 144 256 81
7 12 13 156 144 169
8 35 20 700 1,225 400
Total 182 108 2,775 5,176 1,580
Average 23 14

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Then compute the values of b and a as follows:

(8 × 2,775) − (182 × 108) 2,544

𝑏= = = 0.3071
(8 × 5,176) − (182)2 8,284
𝑎 = 14 − 0.3071 × 23 = 6.9367
With this, substitute the values of b (0.3071) and a (6.9367) on the y equation:

𝑦 = 6.9367 + 0.3071𝑥
This equation is known as the regression line or line of best fit. Linear regression can also be used to evaluate
the strength of the relationship. In applying linear regression, determine how close the plotted dots are to the
line, also known as the degree of correlation. Two (2) variables might be perfectly correlated, partly
correlated, or uncorrelated in determining the degree of correlation.

Figure 4: Degrees of Correlation

Source: CIMA Operational Paper P1, 2019, p. 110-111

The degree of correlation can be measured by computing the correlation coefficient (r) without using a scatter
graph.
𝑛 ∑ 𝑥𝑦 − ∑ 𝑥 ∑ 𝑦
𝑟=
√[𝑛 ∑ 𝑥 2 − (∑ 𝑥)2 ][𝑛 ∑ 𝑦 2 − (∑ 𝑦)2 ]

The value r can range between negative one (-1) to one (1), with stronger relationships having values closer
to negative one (-1) or one (1) and weaker relationships near 0.

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Illustration: Calculate the correlation coefficient using the same data in linear regression.
Month x y xy x2 y2
1 24 13 312 576 169
2 13 10 130 169 100
3 9 9 81 81 81
4 42 18 756 1,764 324
5 31 16 496 961 256
6 16 9 144 256 81
7 12 13 156 144 169
8 35 20 700 1,225 400
Total 182 108 2,775 5,176 1,580

8𝑥2775−182𝑥108 2,544
𝑟= = = 0.89
√[8𝑥5176−1822 ][8𝑥1580−1082 ] √[8284][976]

The question is, will the equation derived using linear regression be suitable for forecasting? Since the
correlation coefficient is close to 1, r demonstrates a high correlation. In simple terms, a high correlation
means that one variable is highly sensitive to the other variable. In this case, the advertising expense and the
sales volume are the variables. Having a high correlation, any change in advertising expense can directly affect
the sales volume resulting in an almost proportionate change. As advertising expenses increase, the sales
volume increases.

Having established the strong correlation between advertising expense (x) and sales volume (y), such
correlation may be due to chance or a reason. If there is a reason, it may not be causal. For instance, ice cream
sales and sunscreen are well correlated, not because of a direct causal link, but because the weather influences
both variables. But even if there is a causal explanation for a correlation, it does not follow that the variations
noted in one variable will cause variations in the value of the other. The successful application of the linear
regression model depends on x and y being closely linearly related. The coefficient of determination measures
the variation in y that appears to be explained by variation in x.

Illustration: The coefficient of determination is computed as r2.

r2= 0.892 = 0.800 or 80%
What is the significance of this number? It tells us that a change in advertising can explain 80% of the change
in sales. While the coefficient of determination does not prove that the change in advertising causes the
change in sales, we can still conclude that there is a correlation between these two (2) variables.

For example, if r = 0.70, you may think the linear relationship between the two (2) variables is quite strong.
But r2 = 0.49 shows that only half of the variations in the dependent variable can be explained by a linear
relationship with the independent variable. The low figure may suggest a non-linear relationship is a better
model for the data, or other factors must be considered. The rule of thumb is that r2 > 80% indicates that a
linear regression may be applied for forecasting.

When calculating a line of best fit, there will be a range of values for x. Depending on the degree of correlation
between x and y, we might safely use the estimated line of best fit to forecast the values of y, provided that
the value of x remains within the range of data. It is called interpolation. Interpolation is using a line of best
fit to predict a value within two (2) extreme points of a given range. It will be on less safe ground if the equation

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to predict a value for y outside the range is used because we would have to assume that the costs behave the
same way outside the range of values of x to establish the line in the first place. It is called extrapolation.
Extrapolation uses a line of best fit to predict a value outside the two (2) extreme points. As a general rule,
interpolation is generally considered safer than extrapolation.

The limitations of linear regression are as follows:

• It assumes a linear (straight line) relationship between two (2) variables. It can be tested with measures
of reliability, such as the correlation coefficient and coefficient of determination;
• High values of r and r2 do not prove a cause-and-effect relationship. Instead, it supports what would be
concluded through educated guesswork;
• It only measures the relationship between two (2) variables. The dependent variable is usually affected by
more than one (1) independent variable;
• It assumes that the past can be used to predict the future. While past performance may be a good indicator
of future performance, it is not a guarantee of future results;
• It ignores inflation, which may affect data during high inflation and the reliability of projections in pesos.
A way to address this is to adjust the prices to a common price level to overcome cost differences from
inflation and adjust the data to represent current technology or efficiency levels; and
• As with any forecasting technique, the accuracy and reliability of data are important. Also, the amount of
data available is equally important. Even if the correlation is high, a forecast may be unreliable if we have
fewer than 10 data pairs.

Time Series Analysis

A time series records a series of figures or values over time. Examples of time series include monthly sales for
the past two (2) years; daily production output for the previous months. A graph of a time series is called a
histogram. In a histogram, the x (horizontal) axis is always chosen to represent time, while the y (vertical) axis
represents the values of the data being recorded (CIMA Operational Paper, 2019).
A time series has four (4) components:
• a trend;
• seasonal variations or fluctuations;
• cyclical variations or cycles; and
• random variations.

Illustration: The first two (2) components, let us say a product manager of a fast-food chain is contemplating
whether to continue or discontinue its fish burger in its menu. Consider the following histogram showing the
number of fish burgers served by the fast-food chain over the past four (4) years:

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Histogram
1000
800
600
400
200
0

Orders Trend

Figure 5: Histogram
Source: CIMA Operational Paper P1, 2019, p. 114.

In this histogram, there would appear to be a sizeable seasonal fluctuation for fish burgers. Also, it shows a
basic upward trend in demand for the product, which shows the opportunities to retain the fish burger on the
menu. The third component of the time series, cyclical variations, are medium-term results changes caused
by circumstances that repeat in cycles. These are commonly associated with economic cycles, booms and
slumps, often lasting a few years. Cyclical variations are longer than seasonal variations. The fourth component
of the time series refers to random variations. Unforeseen circumstances, such as natural calamities,
pandemics, war, changes in government policy, changes in technology, fire, etc., cause these.

An actual time series incorporates all four (4) features.

TS = T + SV + C + R, where
TS = actual time series
T = trend series
SV = seasonal component
C = cyclical component
R = random component.
While awareness of the cyclical and random components is important, you will not be expected to calculate
in isolating these under this course. Hence, the mathematical model covered in our course is the additive
model, which excludes these components.
The additive model expresses a time series as TS = T + SV.

There are three (3) ways to find the trend:

• High Low Method;

• Linear Regression; and
• Moving Averages.

The High-Low method and Linear Regression were already discussed in the first parts of this handout. The
moving average will be discussed next. However, the discussion will focus on the simple moving average. The

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simple moving average is an average of the results of a fixed number of periods. It can remove seasonal
variations from a time series due to the averaging process, so the remaining figures represent the trend only.

Illustration: Unit sales of fish burgers for eight (8) years.

Year Sales (units)

1 390
2 380
3 460
4 450
5 470
6 440
7 500
8 520

Required: Calculate the moving average for a period of three (3) years to determine the trend.

Moving
Year Sales (units) Average Formula
1 390
2 380 410 (390+380+460)/3
3 460 430 (380+460+450)/3
4 450 460 (460+450+470)/3
5 470 453 (450+470+440)/3
6 440 470 (470+440+500)/3
7 500 487 (440+500+520)/3
8 520

Note that the moving average series has six (6) figures showing an upward sales trend.

Technologies in budgeting and forecasting

• Companies use a spreadsheet to build business models to assist the forecasting and planning process.
• Performing a ‘what if?’ analysis or sensitivity analysis to see the impact of changes in assumptions. For
example, suppose the company is contemplating increasing the selling price of a particular product line.
In that case, it must consider the scenario if it resulted in a corresponding decrease in demand.
• Performing a stress test can also quantify the risks of an organization as part of its risk measurement
exercises.
• Big data refers to the information that societies generate each year. Search engines and social networking
sites may provide necessary data to project sales or determine customer preferences.
The four (4) Vs. of big data are:
o Volume – Social media, transactional data from the records of companies, online selling apps, and
rewards membership systems are driving data.
o Velocity – The speed at which real-time data is available to the organization. For the data to be
relevant, it must be processed on time.

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o Variety – Different types of data require various ways to process. Some data may be stored in the
form of images, sound recordings, social media posts, videos, etc., and each medium may require
an investment to process them.
o Veracity – The challenge is to keep the information free from bias, which is often difficult to
remove. For example, social media posts about a product may provide data on how customers
perceive a product. It may not help predict sales because the age profile of the users may act as a
bias, thus distorting the data collected.

Companies can use big data analytics to analyze opportunities to improve products, increase product offerings,
or reduce costs. It can develop and maintain broader key performance indicators (KPIs) and improve
forecasting quality.
With all the technologies available to improve forecasting techniques, we must acknowledge that all forecasts
are subject to error. It may be partly due to trends, and seasonal variations may not continue, or random
variations may highly affect the pattern of trends and seasonal variations (CIMA Operational Paper, 2019).

References

Brewer, G. N. (2021). Managerial Accounting 17th edition. McGraw-Hill Education.

Carlson, R. (2022). What is a Master Budget? Retrieved from www.thebalancemoney.com:

https://www.thebalancemoney.com/budgeting-what-is-a-master-budget-393049

CIMA Operational Paper. (2019). BPP Learning Meda.

Vaidya, D. (2023). Cash Budget. Retrieved from www.wallstreetmojo.com:

https://www.wallstreetmojo.com/cash-budget/

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